568: The Year of Romance


00:00:00   By the way, I'm sorry I'm a little bit hoarse tonight, and I wish I had a good reason, like

00:00:06   being sick or having to shout to save a child or something.

00:00:11   Shouting to save children, is that how it works now?

00:00:14   I don't know.

00:00:15   The truth is that I am alone in my house tonight, and therefore a lot of singing has occurred.

00:00:22   And I regret to inform you that I have neither the singing range of Paul Simon nor Art Garfunkel.

00:00:28   That's the real reason why I sound slightly hoarse tonight.

00:00:31   I was gonna say, if you were listening to Phish, how are you doing any singing?

00:00:35   Right?

00:00:36   I also listen to other music sometimes.

00:00:39   I mean, not a lot, if I'm honest.

00:00:41   Sometimes.

00:00:42   Oh man, it's funny to me how you tactically deploy your executive assistant for media

00:00:50   acquisition purposes.

00:00:51   Oh yeah, whenever I want to pirate anything, I always ask Casey how to do it, because I

00:00:56   haven't pirated things en masse in a very long time, like since high school really.

00:01:02   So all the modern ways to do it, I don't really know about them, and I'm certainly

00:01:06   not set up for them.

00:01:08   So I always have to ask my other friends, like, "Hey, there's this concert I want

00:01:12   to download, and it's only letting me do a video on demand, how do I download it?"

00:01:17   Indeed.

00:01:18   But yeah, I got a text message out of the blue saying, "Hey, there's this time-limited

00:01:24   thing I really want to download, what can I do?"

00:01:27   And I gave some pointers as to hypothetical things that one could try, but we would never

00:01:33   do.

00:01:34   No, of course not.

00:01:35   But you could try them.

00:01:36   And it turns out that you didn't need my help, because you found it by a mechanism

00:01:40   all your own.

00:01:41   Well, someone else sent it to me, basically.

00:01:44   But it's interesting, in the history of things that can be shown in a web browser,

00:01:52   typically there were tools that were pretty reliably able to download those things.

00:01:57   Because at some level it would be a bunch of MPEG4 files in a series on a server, in

00:02:02   a playlist, or something like that.

00:02:04   But now there appears to be pretty widespread use of whatever kind of DRM, I think maybe

00:02:10   Widevine is one of them, but whatever kind of DRM exists now on HLS streams, it seems

00:02:16   like it's everywhere now.

00:02:17   And so all the tools like YouTube DL or YT DLP or whatever, all these tools basically

00:02:23   don't work anymore on a lot of paid video services, because they all use this DRM.

00:02:29   I'm not a fan of DRM as a technologist, so that irritates me on a lot of levels.

00:02:34   But I'm also just kind of surprised that none of these tools have caught up yet.

00:02:38   It seems like, I don't know how this stuff works these days, I'm sure there's a lot

00:02:42   of OS level integrations, but somehow every web browser, including stuff like Firefox

00:02:47   like they can all play the DRM streams just fine.

00:02:52   And screen recording software can, like that is still loophole, you can still like run

00:02:57   a screen recording, not with all apps, like QuickTime Player will just give you like a

00:03:01   black square, but some apps will just record the screen in some way that includes the content.

00:03:07   So you can do it that way, which is terrible to do I know, but like I'm kind of amazed

00:03:12   that all these tools are not able to break this DRM for something that is common enough

00:03:17   that it can play in every web browser.

00:03:19   But I don't know.

00:03:20   We live in kind of a sad time that there's just that much DRM everywhere in our computing

00:03:24   lives now and we don't even like blink an eye, it's just that there's considered normal.

00:03:28   It's kind of sad.

00:03:29   Are you talking about fish stuff?

00:03:30   I thought all that was free, man.

00:03:34   No it's not.

00:03:35   And I don't need it to be free, like I buy the MP3, like you can buy audio downloads

00:03:40   that are all DRM free.

00:03:41   That's what I was saying, like you pay the money and you get a bunch of files but they're

00:03:44   DRM free.

00:03:45   That's audio only though.

00:03:46   So if you want to see the video streams, you pay per show something like 40 bucks and then

00:03:52   you can watch the stream for like 48 hours and or live.

00:03:56   But then the real problem is you can't buy it afterwards.

00:04:00   So you can watch it for only the 48 hours after the concert has occurred, but if you

00:04:05   want to watch it next week or next year, you just can't.

00:04:08   You can't rebuy it.

00:04:09   There's no way to watch it.

00:04:10   It's just gone.

00:04:12   And it was, this Fish New Year show was a really important show.

00:04:17   It was important, wasn't it?

00:04:18   Okay, explain yourself.

00:04:20   Use more words.

00:04:21   Why was this an important show?

00:04:22   I'm not even going to try to explain, but basically there was a ton of fan service,

00:04:28   references that go back 30 years in the band that were brought together in a big way.

00:04:33   And so it was a very important show for Fish fans.

00:04:36   And so I wanted to really make sure, like I really want to have a copy of this.

00:04:41   Because look, I don't know what the band's archival situation is.

00:04:44   I assume that they are saving all of their videos and at some point in the future might

00:04:49   make them available in some way, maybe I hope, but I don't want to rely on maybe I hope for

00:04:54   like a really important concert for my favorite band of my life.

00:04:57   Like I want to actually have it.

00:04:59   This is where the community comes in though.

00:05:01   Like wouldn't it, wouldn't, couldn't you just rely on the fact that this is a popular

00:05:04   band and you don't have to do this.

00:05:05   All you gotta do is wait for the people who already know how to do this to upload the

00:05:08   stream that they ripped from the thing?

00:05:10   Yeah, but upload it where?

00:05:11   That's the problem.

00:05:12   Like I don't know all the places that people go now.

00:05:14   I really hope Adam can help you in your old age.

00:05:17   I know he's going to have to.

00:05:18   He's right now Casey is my video piracy, you know, assistant.

00:05:22   Eventually Adam will take over and help both of us.

00:05:26   But we were not there yet.

00:05:28   It's not piracy if you paid for it and you're just time shifting it.

00:05:31   I think we already had several court cases about that and the VCR was allowed to exist.

00:05:34   So if you pay for something like you pay for cable television and they air it and send

00:05:37   it to you and you record it on a device, I know you've got the DMCA with the, you're

00:05:41   not supposed to crack encryption, blah, blah, blah.

00:05:43   But I feel like you're at least ethically, if not legally in the clear here.

00:05:47   Well I just, I think it's a little questionable and we'll get to copyright stuff later actually,

00:05:51   but I think it's a little questionable because like I'm not paying 40 bucks to own it forever.

00:05:54   I'm paying 40 bucks to watch it once.

00:05:56   I know, but it's the same thing when you pay for cable.

00:05:58   You're not paying to own all those shows that are broadcast to your house forever, but you

00:06:02   do pay the cable company to send you video.

00:06:05   And if you have a device in your home that records that video for time shifting purposes,

00:06:09   like a video cassette recorder, that turns out to be legal according to all the court

00:06:14   cases.

00:06:15   The only wrinkle in this entire scheme is now we have a thing called DRM that stops

00:06:18   you from recording it and because of the DMCA, it's illegal for you to try to crack DRM.

00:06:23   And I think there is no distinction between paying for cable to be broadcast in your house

00:06:28   and then time shifting with VCR and then paying for a video of a concert to be streamed into

00:06:32   your house and then time shifting it with FM pay.

00:06:35   The only difference is that stupid law that says you're not allowed to even try to crack

00:06:38   encryption, which is incredibly stupid and we should get rid of, but it is what it is.

00:06:42   I mean, there's a whole lot of this that's stupid, but I don't think that necessarily

00:06:46   would hold up to legal scrutiny.

00:06:47   No, no, because of the DMCA, because it's illegal to try to crack encryption.

00:06:52   But aside from that one thing, it is exactly the same as the time shifting with a VCR case

00:06:57   because in both cases, like, well, you just paid to have it sent to your house once.

00:07:01   You didn't pay to keep it forever.

00:07:02   But the courts found, no, if you have a device that can record it, it's yours.

00:07:08   Is that really what the decision is?

00:07:10   I don't know enough about it.

00:07:11   Is that really?

00:07:12   Yeah.

00:07:13   The whole point was like, you can't have a video cassette recorder in your house because

00:07:14   then when we air Star Wars on ABC and you record it, no, you have a copy of Star Wars

00:07:17   and you didn't pay for that.

00:07:19   And the decision was you're allowed to do that.

00:07:22   You're not allowed to resell it.

00:07:23   You're not allowed to pay, sell tickets to it or whatever, but you were allowed to time

00:07:26   shift.

00:07:27   It was called time shifting.

00:07:28   You take something that aired and you put it on some storage medium so you can watch

00:07:31   it at a different time.

00:07:33   And the only legal thing stopping you now is they made a law that says, okay, if we

00:07:36   put some magic pixie dust DRM on this, even if it's trivially easy to crack, if you do

00:07:40   that, you're breaking the law.

00:07:41   That's why you had the, you know, the DCSS t-shirts with the parole code on it.

00:07:45   That was, you know, illegal and all that crap.

00:07:46   The one prime number that broke the key or whatever.

00:07:49   Yeah, it's absurd.

00:07:50   But that's, that is the legal system.

00:07:52   That's why I said ethically, I think you're in the clear, if not legally.

00:07:55   I wonder if like if a screen recording method might actually sorta not be a DMCA.

00:08:03   I don't know because you didn't try to crack the encryption probably.

00:08:06   But you could argue like the software might've cracked it even though it's not, it's not,

00:08:09   it's not compliant or whatever, but it's just recording the screen content.

00:08:12   So like that's not, yeah, I think that's probably fine because I think that is, it's like the

00:08:15   analog loophole.

00:08:16   Remember that whole thing of like, Oh, the way to record it is, you know, you're not

00:08:20   cracking the encryption on the DVD.

00:08:22   You're just playing the DVD over a, an analog video cable and intercepting it there.

00:08:27   Yeah.

00:08:28   I mean, and even, I mean, all of the, um, you know, machinations now about like how

00:08:34   having these secure video paths with that are supported by the hardware and HDMI and

00:08:38   everything and, and try to, trying to ensure DRM so that you can't do stuff like screen

00:08:43   recording or just atmi capture of protected content or take a screenshot because you want

00:08:47   to tweet something funny about a TV show.

00:08:49   Oh, the worst.

00:08:50   I know.

00:08:51   I mean, I frankly, I don't actually know how certain screen recording methods somehow get

00:08:55   around it and others don't.

00:08:57   That's, I'm glad they do.

00:08:59   But like the amount of grief this causes legitimate users all the time.

00:09:04   Like I can't tell you how many times I've like, you know, been, you know, it may be

00:09:07   like traveling and trying to output something over HDMI to a TV or something and some part

00:09:12   of the chain doesn't fit the DRM standards.

00:09:14   And so it like, it just refuses.

00:09:16   And I guess I can't watch this movie that I just, that I paid for, like stream from

00:09:20   my laptop onto the hotel TV or whatever.

00:09:22   Like it's, it's so annoying.

00:09:23   I hate DRM so much.

00:09:25   It's dumb because as we all know, none of that stuff actually stops this stuff from

00:09:28   being available illegally.

00:09:30   All it does is frustrate legitimate users.

00:09:32   We I think we talked about this just a couple months ago cause I just ran across this recently,

00:09:36   but there is a website, a Dave Matthews Band fan website where it has a Q and A with the

00:09:40   crew.

00:09:41   Now this very, this very well may be very, very old, but as somebody asked, you have

00:09:45   listed a 24 track hard disk recorder under the recording equipment, but 39 inputs to

00:09:48   the board.

00:09:49   How many mixed channels are record on multiple 24 track recorders, blah, blah, blah, blah,

00:09:53   blah.

00:09:54   The answer is we actually have eight task cam 24 or 24 three pairs working in main and

00:09:58   backup modes with two spares.

00:10:00   Forty six tracks are recorded every day, which includes the band's input list plus several

00:10:03   audience mics and other inputs.

00:10:05   The hard drives get sent back to an archivist in Charlottesville who is then dumps each

00:10:08   track to a separate CDR for permanent storage in a vault.

00:10:12   Each show will generate about 138 CDRs and that's audio.

00:10:16   That's not even video.

00:10:17   Did you discuss this already and did we freak out about CDRs?

00:10:21   We did indeed.

00:10:22   Yeah, they better be using M discs.

00:10:23   Yeah, cause I really think putting them on a CDR and then putting them in a vault are

00:10:28   two sentiments that are a little bit at odds with each other.

00:10:30   I totally agree with you.

00:10:32   But my point is, you know, Marco had justifiably asked, you know, is this a flash in the pan?

00:10:36   You know, this, this video recording, does fish keep a copy of this video recording or

00:10:40   is this a one and done?

00:10:41   I mean, I assume someone is archiving all this stuff.

00:10:44   I hope.

00:10:45   Agreed.

00:10:46   Like they don't, they don't usually release archival videos.

00:10:49   Like they release archival audio sometimes.

00:10:51   I don't think they tend to release archival video much if at all.

00:10:54   So I don't know.

00:10:57   That's why like it's a little unnerving and that's why I, you know, and I think I have

00:11:01   a lot of, I think a lot, a lot of sympathy from the two of you on this.

00:11:04   I want to be a digital pack rat for stuff that I can't just re like easily just get

00:11:09   off the internet again.

00:11:10   Like stuff that's really important to me.

00:11:12   You know, I actually want to have my own copy because we all know from the, from the tech

00:11:17   world, everything out there that's like, especially DRM stuff through streaming services or whatever,

00:11:21   it's all so temporary.

00:11:23   You think you own it even when like when you buy it and you think you quote own it, then

00:11:27   you know, Sony pulls a fast one or something like that story and like you, then it's just

00:11:31   gone.

00:11:32   The stuff you quote bought is gone or unavailable or whatever.

00:11:34   Like so the, and that stuff annoys me so much.

00:11:37   I think we live in a time where a huge amount of modern culture in the form of both media

00:11:45   and also like software and games and everything like that, a huge amount of it is going to

00:11:50   be basically inaccessible to historians in the future because of, you know, technological

00:11:56   means or encryption or, you know, SSL breaking or whatever.

00:12:00   Like there's so many things that the previous eras of media that we've had decades ago,

00:12:06   we can all still access those today, but the stuff that we are making and using and, you

00:12:11   know, enjoying today, I think we're going to have a very hard time, you know, re enjoying

00:12:16   or re experiencing that in 20 years.

00:12:19   Yeah, I think it's probably mostly the trend line is upward still because all the stuff

00:12:23   before recorded medium is totally lost.

00:12:25   People saying, and there was nothing to record them on for most of human history.

00:12:29   And then we had this period where it was recorded with no DRM and now we have recorded with

00:12:32   DRM, but we have so much more storage now.

00:12:34   I think we're saving so much more stuff.

00:12:36   It's going to be a lot easier for historians to find that old stuff.

00:12:41   Even if, I mean, maybe we're not saving a DRM encrypted, but even if they are, it will

00:12:45   be eventually trivial to break that DRM encryption.

00:12:48   So I think we're doing better overall, but there is definitely a hiccup in the whole

00:12:52   introduction of DRM that's going to cause some headaches, but it's still better than

00:12:55   wax cylinders and it's still way better than no way to record performances at all.

00:13:02   Let's do some follow up.

00:13:03   And we have a paper about Apple's on device, LLM, LLM in a flash, efficient large language

00:13:09   model inference with limited memory.

00:13:11   Can you tell me about this please, John?

00:13:13   I think it was last episode we were talking about asking a TP question about what we thought

00:13:18   Apple would do to run a LM stuff on device with wimpy devices like the home pod.

00:13:24   And we referenced this alluded to, I alluded to this paper, but we didn't have a link to

00:13:29   it.

00:13:30   So now we will on the show notes.

00:13:31   This is a summary from someone on threads.

00:13:34   It says Apple has proposed an inference cost model that coordinates with the behavior of

00:13:37   flash memory usage, guiding optimization in two key areas, reducing the amount of data

00:13:42   transferred from flash memory and reading data in larger, more continuous blocks.

00:13:46   These methods collectively enable running models up to twice the size of available DRAM

00:13:50   with 4X to 5X and 20X to 25X increase in inference speed compared to naive loading approaches

00:13:56   in CPU and GPU respectively.

00:13:58   So this is, you can read the paper to see, but it's like, hey, Apple has a bunch of devices

00:14:02   that have limited DRAM and if you wanted to run one of those better models, then you can't

00:14:08   fit it in DRAM.

00:14:09   Is there a way you can get reasonable forms out of it while essentially overflowing your

00:14:13   RAM and using flash as a backing store?

00:14:16   And they have some techniques to speed that up.

00:14:18   And that is extremely relevant to pretty much everything that Apple makes with the exception

00:14:22   of Macs where you are probably going to be RAM limited.

00:14:25   And a lot of these large language models, I know the first L is for large, but you can

00:14:29   size them.

00:14:30   You can even, in a lot of the cases, take a really big honking model that takes a huge

00:14:34   amount of resources and take that exact model and cut it down in some way, like without

00:14:39   like making a new model to size it, to fit within whatever your constraints are.

00:14:43   And it sounds like this approach in this paper will let Apple use models a little bit bigger

00:14:47   than they otherwise would be able to on their wimpy hardware.

00:14:51   Apple's also exploring AI deals with news publishers.

00:14:54   This was in the New York Times.

00:14:55   Apple has opened negotiations in recent weeks with major news and publishing organizations

00:14:59   seeking permission to use their material in the company's development of generative artificial

00:15:03   intelligence systems.

00:15:05   According to four people familiar with the discussions, the technology giant has floated

00:15:08   multi-year deals worth at least $50 million to license the archives of news articles,

00:15:12   said the people with knowledge of talks.

00:15:14   For the record, Apple, for 10% of that, for a mere $5 million, you are welcome to use

00:15:19   caseylist.com in its entirety in training your model.

00:15:22   I thought you were going to offer up the ATP archives.

00:15:24   I think we need to collectively negotiate with Apple for those, even though they're

00:15:28   already publicly available.

00:15:29   We may have started at a disadvantage in this negotiation already.

00:15:33   Fair.

00:15:34   But have your people call our people.

00:15:35   Yeah.

00:15:36   So this is something that a few companies are doing.

00:15:39   Adobe is the other one that comes to mind where they have a bunch of generative AI stuff

00:15:43   in the latest version of Photoshop that I believe Adobe has claimed, hey, we trained

00:15:48   all of our models on images that we own or have the rights to.

00:15:53   So they're essentially legally in the clear.

00:15:55   If it's not Adobe and it's actually some other stock photo company, I forget.

00:15:59   But anyway, companies are doing this where they're like, we want to be able to provide

00:16:02   a service to our customers with no doubt, no legal doubt about however this whole court

00:16:07   stuff comes out with the AI training.

00:16:09   It's like we trained our models on stuff that we own because some companies own a large

00:16:13   volume of images, for example, like a stock photo company or whatever.

00:16:16   It might be the stock photo company I'm thinking of it.

00:16:19   Not a, what is it called?

00:16:20   Shutter stock or maybe it's Getty images.

00:16:23   They're the big one.

00:16:24   Getty images.

00:16:25   Yeah.

00:16:26   Anyway, um, Apple, this is totally an Apple move to say we can solve this problem with

00:16:30   money.

00:16:31   If there's any kind of questions about the legality, uh, how about we just give people

00:16:35   millions of dollars in exchange for them letting us train their, uh, trade our AI model on

00:16:42   their content.

00:16:44   The New York times, speaking of is suing open AI and Microsoft for copyright infringement.

00:16:48   The New York times assuming open AI and Microsoft for copyright infringement, claiming the two

00:16:52   companies built their AI models by copying and using millions of the publications articles

00:16:56   and now quote unquote directly compete with its content.

00:17:00   As a result, as outlined in the lawsuit, the times ledges open AI and Microsoft's large

00:17:03   language models, which power chat, GPT and copilot can generate output that recites times

00:17:08   content verbatim closely summarizes it and mimics its expressive style.

00:17:12   This undermines and damages the times relationship with readers.

00:17:15   The outlet eight alleges while also depriving it of subscription licensing, licensing, advertising

00:17:20   and affiliate revenue.

00:17:22   That uh, that nicely ties in above the previous story.

00:17:25   Uh, if Apple is offering these people millions of dollars for the content, but Microsoft

00:17:29   is just taking it for free and then getting sued over it.

00:17:32   You can see where Apple might've thought this is a wiser move in the short term.

00:17:35   We've talked about this many times in the past, um, about the, whether it is, you know,

00:17:40   uh, ethics, morals and legalities, um, whether it is right to train a large language model

00:17:45   on, for example, the publicly accessible webpage is containing content of New York Times stories.

00:17:51   Uh, people can make arguments that it is, uh, you know, it's transformational and it's,

00:17:56   you know, fair use or whatever, uh, pretty legal precedent you don't want to use for

00:18:00   it's an entirely new thing.

00:18:01   We have to have a new set of laws governing or whatever, but clearly the New York Times

00:18:04   thinks, Hey, if you train your large language model on New York Times articles and now people

00:18:08   use your thing and don't ever go to the New York Times because they essentially get the

00:18:13   article summarized or excerpted in your thing or whatever, that's, you know, under current

00:18:19   law that's illegal and now we're sitting over it or whatever.

00:18:21   Um, as I said, then many pastimes when we discuss this, I continue to think that it

00:18:26   is, that it should not be legal to train a large language model on content that you don't

00:18:31   own, uh, because your large language model is worthless without that content.

00:18:36   Uh, you know, empty large language model that has not been trained on anything is worth

00:18:40   zero dollars.

00:18:41   And you can say, well, we can make this valuable by feeding it the contents of the New York

00:18:44   Times.

00:18:45   Well, uh, New York Times, you should either let you do that or you should, they should

00:18:49   be compensated for it or we need to figure out some other thing, but I don't think you

00:18:52   should just get it free just because, uh, but that's the type of thing that is going

00:18:56   to be hashed out in court.

00:18:58   And again, Apple is neatly sidestepping this by saying, I don't care whether it's legal,

00:19:01   not here is millions of dollars.

00:19:03   Can we use your articles?

00:19:04   Yes, no.

00:19:05   That is a much more straightforward arrangement of value exchange.

00:19:09   What is the right amount of money for that?

00:19:10   Is it like, you know, a penny per article or like even less or like what, you know,

00:19:15   how, how people who are training large language models negotiate with people who own the content

00:19:19   that they're being trained on.

00:19:20   We'll see.

00:19:21   There's always sort of publicly available things.

00:19:23   Like I think Wikipedia says you're allowed to train on it, but whether they do or not,

00:19:27   everybody does.

00:19:28   Uh, so yeah, this is entirely in a big legal gray area.

00:19:32   And I think Apple's approach is the right one for now and Adobe and whatever company

00:19:37   I can remember that's also doing the same thing.

00:19:39   Train on data that you own or have licensed.

00:19:42   And then if it turns out that, Oh, actually the courts say you're allowed to get this

00:19:46   for free, then don't pay them next year.

00:19:48   But if it turns out that, uh, the New York times wins their case and, uh, you know, gets

00:19:53   a millions of dollars in damages, you were always on the right side of that.

00:19:56   So kudos to Apple for using its money for, uh, you know, using its money wisely.

00:20:02   Yeah.

00:20:03   This is, this is a case to watch because you know, there's been so many kind of questions

00:20:08   about AI training, um, and its relation to copyright law and you know, is training an

00:20:15   AI on public material that, you know, that's owned by somebody else.

00:20:18   Is that copyright infringement?

00:20:21   I don't know if that's a clear cut argument either way.

00:20:24   Like it is, it's, it's definitely like a new area and you know, this is what happens with

00:20:30   the law over time.

00:20:31   Like new problems arise or new conditions or new, you know, distinctions need to be

00:20:37   made.

00:20:38   And that's what the law and the legal system is made to sort out and decide.

00:20:42   Um, it remains a huge open question mark of like, can you just train AI models on whatever

00:20:47   you want?

00:20:49   I still believe that that is not copyright infringement necessarily because like if you

00:20:55   look at, you know, the New York Times is making some, some pretty strong claims here that

00:21:00   you know, these LLMs that they tested were able to output Times articles verbatim.

00:21:05   But if you look at what kind of prompts they had to give them, the, the way it worked was

00:21:10   basically the New York Times would feed it like the first few paragraphs of an art of

00:21:15   an article and say what comes next.

00:21:17   And so the way LLMs work on a general, you know, a general high level overview of the

00:21:22   way LLMs work is basically like statistically speaking what comes next given this prompt.

00:21:27   And so when, when they give it a few paragraphs of a story from the New York Times verbatim

00:21:31   and say what comes next after this, there is probably no other statistical influence

00:21:37   on what the model could draw from.

00:21:39   So of course it's going to say, okay, well the one source I saw that contained everything

00:21:43   you're asking for, this was next.

00:21:45   I think part of that demonstration, part of the point of that demonstration is to do something

00:21:50   that is otherwise difficult to do, which is essentially to prove that they did train on

00:21:55   your data.

00:21:56   Because it's not like when you see an LLM, you can ask it, hey, tell me all the stuff

00:21:59   that you ingested.

00:22:00   It doesn't, it doesn't work that way.

00:22:01   It's, they can't answer that question.

00:22:02   It's not like they're trying to keep it a secret.

00:22:03   A large language model does not contain within it a complete exhaustive list of all the data

00:22:08   that it was trained on, right?

00:22:09   I mean, it does in sort of a smushed up fuzzy way, but not like in a literal way.

00:22:13   So if as part of the case, if I don't know if this is in this particular case, but if

00:22:17   as part of the case, the people at the LLM said, we never trained on your data.

00:22:21   You can pull this out and say, uh, I think it's pretty unlikely that it would produce

00:22:24   these verbatim, you know, seven paragraphs, right?

00:22:27   So there's, there's that.

00:22:29   And I don't know in this case, again, Microsoft could freely admit that they trained for New

00:22:31   York times and that's a moot point, but the language and the little summary we excerpted

00:22:36   from is directly trying to tie it to existing law because that's what they have to do in

00:22:39   a court case.

00:22:40   So if there are no laws directly addressing this, you're going to come and say, I think

00:22:45   you are in violation of these existing laws.

00:22:47   And so one of those is like, um, the, the whole fair use doctrine of like, is the thing

00:22:53   a substitute for the thing that it is taking from and like saying like a two second clip

00:22:57   of a movie is not a substitute for the movie.

00:22:59   No one is saying I wasn't going to watch the movie, but instead I'm going to watch this

00:23:01   two second clip.

00:23:03   And they're saying that these LMs directly compete with its content saying it is a substitute.

00:23:08   It is, it is directly competing with our stuff.

00:23:10   It's not just like a Google search result where you see a headline and you see like

00:23:14   the, a link and then like two sentences, but you have to click through to read the story.

00:23:18   No one is looking at that and saying, well, I felt like I've read the whole story.

00:23:21   Whereas here they're saying, you know, within existing copyright law, you do not fall under

00:23:26   this section of fair use because you are directly competing with us rather than just, you know,

00:23:31   being a, not being a substitute or whatever.

00:23:34   So we'll see if they succeed in that strategy because to your point, Marco, the existing

00:23:37   laws don't address this because it's a new use case, but that's when you bring a case,

00:23:41   you have to say, I think some existing laws you're already in violation of and we'll see

00:23:46   how that works out legally.

00:23:47   My point has always been, regardless of what the current laws say, I think it shouldn't

00:23:52   be legal so that, that to do what they're doing just willy nilly.

00:23:56   So there should be some kind of law made governing this or, and if no, if laws aren't made governing

00:24:02   it, then at the very least, what we'll get is precedents in court cases.

00:24:06   I don't like things being determined by precedents in court cases because I figured what they're

00:24:10   saying is, I always get it backwards, but like hard cases make bad law or something

00:24:13   like that where it's better to just say what you actually want to happen through legislation

00:24:18   and to the degree that our government can actually function, that would be the more

00:24:22   desirable thing.

00:24:23   But anytime any laws are made surrounding technology, we all kind of, you know, grit

00:24:28   our teeth a little bit.

00:24:29   So we'll see how this goes.

00:24:30   Yeah.

00:24:31   I mean, cause I don't, honestly, I don't think it's that clear cut.

00:24:34   You know, like their claims, you know, they say that it can recite Times Content Verbatim.

00:24:38   Okay.

00:24:39   We covered that.

00:24:40   Like, but there's already laws against that.

00:24:42   Reciting Times Content Verbatim is copyright infringement.

00:24:45   That's direct.

00:24:46   Cause it's like, this is, these are, this is a copyrighted work that we have on our

00:24:50   site and you are serving it over here.

00:24:53   We already have laws that make that part of it illegal.

00:24:55   They also say it closely summarizes it.

00:24:58   Well, who cares?

00:24:59   That's not illegal.

00:25:00   I don't know.

00:25:01   I'm not sure if it depends on close to summary.

00:25:03   I think existing laws, existing case laws probably covers cases where it's like, well,

00:25:07   it's not exactly verbatim.

00:25:08   One or two words are changed here, but I, again, I'm not, you know, I don't have

00:25:11   exhaustive knowledge of copyright law, but that seems like something that would have

00:25:14   come up before.

00:25:15   For example, a newspaper essentially stealing, stealing another newspaper story and reproducing

00:25:20   it high school student style where you change a couple of words around.

00:25:23   I bet there have been cases about that.

00:25:25   And again, in all those cases, here's the tricky bit and the part I always keep trying

00:25:28   to focus on.

00:25:29   In all existing case law, it's humans doing things like this.

00:25:33   Like it's a reporter at one newspaper closely summarizing an article in another newspaper

00:25:38   and changing the words around, right?

00:25:40   Whereas here it's not a human doing this.

00:25:42   It's humans setting a machinery into motion and the machinery spits out the New York Times

00:25:47   article that it was fed in this series of things.

00:25:49   So the laws governing what machines are allowed to do are much more sparse and less well tested

00:25:57   because they're all necessarily newer because we haven't had machines that could do anything

00:26:00   like this.

00:26:01   So yeah, I don't, it's hard to say how this one's going to go, but like I, I applaud Apple

00:26:06   for just sidestepping in entirely and Adobe and all these other companies while these

00:26:11   guys fight it out.

00:26:12   But I do fear what the outcome of these cases are going to be because it's like, what, you

00:26:17   know, whatever the details of this specific case are, are probably so weird and so specific

00:26:23   that they shouldn't be like the placeholder for everything for all time.

00:26:27   It would be much better for us to all sort of think about this as a society and come

00:26:32   up with some kind of guidelines that we think will be beneficial going forward.

00:26:36   But the more I, the more I outline that scenario, the more fantastical it sounds.

00:26:40   So maybe we'll just get a series of legal precedents and hope for the best.

00:26:44   Well and there's also, there's other ways this could be sorted out.

00:26:47   So like for instance, the market might just, might kind of go in a direction where like

00:26:52   big companies like OpenAI and Microsoft and certainly as we, as we're seeing with what

00:26:56   Apple's allegedly doing, big companies might just have, you know what, it's not worth the

00:27:00   risk for me to train, you know, train my models on data that might come back and bite me in

00:27:07   the butt as a copyright infringement lawsuit later.

00:27:09   So let me just, you know, buy stuff from, from, from, you know, known sources that I'm

00:27:13   allowed to buy from anyway and train on that.

00:27:15   Or they'll settle out of court.

00:27:16   Like this will never actually go to a verdict.

00:27:18   They'll settle, they'll settle once they see a delay of the land in the court and whoever's

00:27:21   losing will be compelled to come to the table and they'll find a settlement.

00:27:24   And basically what they'll end up with is a not quite as amicable version of what Apple

00:27:28   has, which is, you know, Microsoft has agreed to play the New York Times X, Y millions of

00:27:32   dollars in exchange for blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:27:34   And that becomes the precedent, which is like, if you can steal it, if you can get away with

00:27:38   it, but if they notice and sue you, then you have to settle for millions of dollars, which

00:27:41   is also not a great way to do business, see also patents.

00:27:45   But also like, you know, the, the models, again, I, I know shockingly little about how

00:27:50   these new models work, so forgive me.

00:27:53   Trying to figure that out in the coming year.

00:27:55   But anyway, the models could also potentially be tweaked to just like kind of keep track

00:28:00   of like how many original training inputs are being served for a given output maybe?

00:28:07   That's not how the models work at all right now.

00:28:09   Like at all.

00:28:10   It's more, it's much more like a one way hash mash that you cannot reverse it.

00:28:15   You could, you could keep, they don't, you could keep track of like what did we train

00:28:18   it on, but maybe either, you know, accidentally or on purpose, a lot of these companies say,

00:28:23   Oh, well we can't give you an exhaustive list of what we try.

00:28:25   Like just humans, like, Hey, we'll just make a list of all the stuff we feed to the L M

00:28:29   like all the URLs, all the content will essentially we'll catalog it.

00:28:33   And so if anyone asks, we can show them the list.

00:28:35   But what you're asking for is what a lot of people ask for.

00:28:37   It was like, Oh, when you get, when I give you a prompt and you give them your result,

00:28:40   can you tell me what contributed to that result?

00:28:42   Because the answer is always everything I was trained on.

00:28:45   Like that's the answer.

00:28:46   There's no like, Oh, tell me which part, which part did this word come from and what URLs

00:28:50   and what documents contributed to this that is absolutely not tracked in these things.

00:28:54   And if you think about it, if it was like, that's, you know, it's not, if it was, these

00:28:59   models would be even larger.

00:29:01   Now there, it could be that legally we have to come up with some kind of tagging method

00:29:05   to be able to incorporate that into the model.

00:29:07   So it can tell you, but I bet the answer would be these 17 million documents contributed

00:29:11   to that result.

00:29:12   And it's like, cause that's not useful to me.

00:29:14   How is that useful?

00:29:16   So yeah, I don't, this, this whole lawsuit of like, Oh, Oh, no, New York times is suing

00:29:21   open AI, right?

00:29:23   Whichever way this goes, those large language models that open AI were not just trained

00:29:26   on the New York times.

00:29:27   They were trained on millions and millions and millions of pieces of data.

00:29:31   Is this the system now, if you can figure out that it was trained on your data and you

00:29:35   can hire lawyers for millions of dollars, you can sue them and hope to win something

00:29:39   like that's also a ridiculous system.

00:29:42   Yeah.

00:29:43   I mean, my, I think my, my general opinion on it now is that it shouldn't be illegal

00:29:49   for AI models to do what will be legal for humans to do.

00:29:54   But, but why do you think that?

00:29:56   I think a lot of this is, is really a ques-, you know, questions about fair use, which

00:29:59   of course is a famously, you know, squishy, imprecise doctrine, but it is totally legal

00:30:06   for a human to read a bunch of New York times articles and summarize them for other people.

00:30:11   If they ask them, it is legal for a human to, you know, like what the times says that

00:30:17   the models quote, mimic its expressive style.

00:30:21   Well, it is totally legal for a human to mimic the New York times style when creating other

00:30:26   content.

00:30:27   The times does not have a monopoly on style.

00:30:29   I'm not entirely sure it is legal for humans to close the summaries, but anyway, the whole,

00:30:33   my whole point of this is like, yes, our laws give humans lots of rights, but this is not

00:30:37   a human doing this.

00:30:39   Well, but it is tools that humans are making.

00:30:41   Right, but that's like making it sort of a rights laundering machine where it's like,

00:30:44   well, if I make a machine and set it into motion, I wash my hands of it and now I didn't

00:30:49   do it.

00:30:50   The computer program do it, but computer programs have no rights.

00:30:52   They're not sentient, conscious beings that have legal standing and legal system.

00:30:55   They are computer programs, right?

00:30:57   There are no laws saying, and if a computer program does this, it's fine because the computer

00:31:02   programs are allowed to do that because here are the rights.

00:31:04   Here's the bill of rights for computer programs.

00:31:06   It's not a conscious entity.

00:31:07   It's not, you know what I mean?

00:31:09   Like so, and if you, if you make it to like, well, if a human kills someone, that's murder,

00:31:13   but if a human pushes a button that makes a machine kill somebody, it's fine.

00:31:16   The machine did it.

00:31:18   And this is just a much more complicated version of push the button machinery happens, copyright

00:31:23   infringement.

00:31:24   No, I actually don't think this is like, you know, um, liability laundering at all.

00:31:28   I think it's on the contrary, the people who create the machine become responsible for

00:31:33   what it does.

00:31:34   But I think it should be allowed to do what people are allowed to do because the people

00:31:39   are the ones creating the software that does this.

00:31:41   The people are the ones creating the tools.

00:31:43   So like it is right now, it is legal for me to read a bunch of articles and then, you

00:31:50   know, talk about them in summary or, you know, make a satirical imitation of the New York

00:31:54   Times of style.

00:31:55   That is all legal for me.

00:31:56   However, what is not legal for me is to replicate an entire article on my own site that someone

00:32:02   else's they can hit me for copyright infringement.

00:32:04   Well, that I think is fine.

00:32:05   And so in some ways, I think this, the Times actually has a case for copyright infringement

00:32:12   in the sense that if these models can output copyrighted content in like in whole part

00:32:19   or in whole, I guess that makes sense, you know, they have a, they have a possible case

00:32:24   there, but I don't think they could then also say you aren't allowed to train on our data.

00:32:31   The problem is you are reserving our data and that becomes opening.

00:32:36   I Microsoft's liability then.

00:32:37   So they have to decide what they want to do with their models and whether they can tweak

00:32:40   them in such a way that it can't do that anymore.

00:32:43   But the models existing and having been trained on that data, I don't see that as a clear

00:32:49   cut copyright violation.

00:32:51   They can create copyright violations afterwards, but the model just having been trained on

00:32:56   it, I don't necessarily see that as a problem.

00:32:58   It's not, it's not a clear copyright violation was copyright is a law that's been extended

00:33:03   to do so many weird things, but I think it is that we, it's not tenable for us to have

00:33:07   a system where you can extract all the value from someone else's content and make something

00:33:13   that was previously worthless, a worthless pile of code suddenly becomes incredibly valuable

00:33:18   because because of the input of the work of others that they're not compensated for.

00:33:23   You know what I mean?

00:33:24   And that's why I'm saying like we, that shouldn't be allowed because it makes for a system where

00:33:28   one party with these LLMs can exploit the work of others with no compensation and then

00:33:35   make huge amounts of money off of it and that seems like it's not a, it doesn't set a great

00:33:38   precedent.

00:33:39   I'm not sure what the system should be, but that doesn't seem like a great system.

00:33:43   And the closest thing that we have legally speaking, and I think there's probably cases

00:33:46   about this, but I don't remember them, is like Google search results.

00:33:50   Is it legal for Google to scrape the entire web and to make a search engine?

00:33:53   Google is worthless without the web that it's scraping, right?

00:33:56   And if there were cases about this, which I imagine there were cases about everything,

00:33:59   I think the side we've come down to is we're okay with you essentially indexing and allowing

00:34:05   access to and showing search results for because in the end you are providing a service that

00:34:11   is like a catalog that leads you to the links that you then click on.

00:34:16   But as time has gone on and Google has gotten more and more towards the side of like, well,

00:34:19   we don't really want to send you to the links.

00:34:22   We found some links, but actually what we're doing here is summarizing links.

00:34:26   You don't need to click through.

00:34:27   We'll just summarize them.

00:34:28   I mean, they were doing that long before LLM's, right?

00:34:31   And that starts to get more into, okay, Google, are now, are you a substitute for the websites?

00:34:35   Because previously we said it's fine for Google to make a billion dollar company and sell

00:34:39   ads because they're providing a service, a catalog, an index.

00:34:43   They're not replacing all of those web pages.

00:34:45   Google itself contains no information.

00:34:47   If you want to see what's on those web pages, you've got to click through them.

00:34:49   Oh, well they do have summaries.

00:34:50   And I guess they do show the headline, oh, now they're, now they're summarizing them

00:34:54   at the top and not showing you what that came from.

00:34:56   Hmm.

00:34:57   That's where you start to push into this.

00:34:59   And I think if you're going to look at like for close at the closest case law and the

00:35:03   closest argument for you could say, well, if you think it's okay for Google to do what

00:35:06   they're doing, then how is this not okay?

00:35:08   Cause this is just a better version of Google.

00:35:10   Largely.

00:35:11   Yes.

00:35:12   I mean, I think that largely is the case that I'm making.

00:35:15   Like, I don't see this as being that different from what Google is doing and what Google

00:35:19   is doing.

00:35:20   And you can say this is not ideal.

00:35:22   You can say this is kind of a jerk thing to do, but that's very different from whether

00:35:26   it should be legal or not.

00:35:28   Again, we already have sufficient laws to protect against, you know, full scale copyright

00:35:35   infringement.

00:35:36   Like Google in their little info box answers they give on their search results pages, they

00:35:40   aren't allowed to replicate an entire copyrightable work on there.

00:35:45   That would be copyright infringement.

00:35:46   We already have laws against that.

00:35:47   They are allowed to stay within whatever is considered fair use.

00:35:52   And again, that's a kind of a squishy broad thing.

00:35:55   But there are established standards for that, including like how much of the work are you

00:35:59   replicating.

00:36:00   So if you are just like, if you have an AI model that is able to give you a one sentence

00:36:04   summary of a five paragraph article, I don't think there's anything wrong with that.

00:36:09   That I think is clear fair use.

00:36:10   Yeah.

00:36:11   Well, that's, those are the ends of the spectrum, but I feel like what the LLMs are doing is

00:36:15   far beyond the summary of the top of Google results, but that's, they're creeping towards

00:36:19   each other, right?

00:36:20   So Google was going in that direction.

00:36:21   LLMs took this huge leap to say, actually no search results.

00:36:24   I mean, the little bar does still provide them, but like I said, it's my understanding

00:36:27   is you can't back it out of the results.

00:36:29   You can show what you, the documents that you trained on, if you bothered to keep track

00:36:35   of them, which you probably didn't because your lawyers probably said, just don't keep

00:36:37   track of it.

00:36:39   But you can't, you know, you can't show exactly where this stuff came from, but like the LLMs,

00:36:43   we'll see how this case goes.

00:36:45   Like the direct competition, like saying that this is a substitute for our service.

00:36:50   That is an attempt to nullify fair use to say, even if you just saw an excerpt or whatever,

00:36:54   if you show sufficient information that it is now a substitute for the thing that you

00:36:58   trained on, you're essentially stealing value from us.

00:37:01   No one's going to go to the New York Times if all the knowledge of the New York Times

00:37:04   is contained in your large language model.

00:37:05   And right now they're not that good.

00:37:07   Right?

00:37:08   And so really all the language isn't contained in the LLMs and a lot of it is filled with

00:37:11   BS or whatever.

00:37:12   You could figure out how to make it not spew BS or at least spew plausible enough BS that

00:37:17   no one ever goes to the New York Times again.

00:37:19   That makes the New York Times unviable as a business.

00:37:21   And why?

00:37:22   Because the LLM stole all their value and then eventually there's no more New York Times.

00:37:25   I know this is a silly scenario, but eventually there's no more New York Times.

00:37:28   And then what is the next LLM trained on?

00:37:29   Which is why I think just allowing it to go hog wild is not viable.

00:37:34   You need to come to some kind of arrangement that allows all the things that the LLMs are

00:37:40   trained on to continue to exist for the next hundred years for the next set of LLMs or

00:37:44   whatever to be trained on.

00:37:45   Otherwise they'll be just LLMs with nothing for them to be trained on except for each

00:37:48   other's BS and that's not an ideal system.

00:37:50   Ultimately there's a question of what should be illegal versus what's ideal for the market

00:37:57   or ideal for how we think things should be righteous or best.

00:38:02   And those are very different questions.

00:38:04   Lots of things are legal that we think are kind of unfortunate.

00:38:08   Lots of things are legal that are pretty strong competition for other companies.

00:38:12   So if new technology creates competition for someone else, that's generally legal and usually

00:38:20   for the benefit of the public.

00:38:22   Well what you want is for laws to guide this because if there are no laws governing it

00:38:27   and people think it's free for all, there'll never be a market solution.

00:38:30   What you want is there to be enough laws that say these parties need to discuss things with

00:38:36   each other because one of them just can't take everything and ignore the other.

00:38:40   In the absence of any kind of laws or precedents or whatever, it's like we can do whatever

00:38:44   we want.

00:38:45   Everything we're doing is 100% legal.

00:38:46   You can't stop us at all.

00:38:47   It's better to have some kind of laws governing the bounds of this such that it brings them

00:38:51   all to the table and they come to a market solution because the market solution is not

00:38:53   going to be you pay New York Times $1 for every article you trained on because that's

00:38:57   like billions of dollars.

00:38:58   That doesn't make any sense.

00:38:59   That's not a viable market solution.

00:39:01   Then it'll be like okay well I guess we just won't have LLMs and I guess we'll never train

00:39:04   in the New York Times.

00:39:05   If you have enough guidelines, the parties will come together and come up with something

00:39:10   that is feasible to say well if we don't talk to each other and figure something out, there

00:39:14   are these laws that say, again kind of like patents for those, the FRAN stuff where it's

00:39:19   like you can have this patent but you have to license it to people under reasonable terms.

00:39:23   You can't just charge them a bazillion dollars or whatever.

00:39:25   I would hope that there'd be some kind of laws that make the LLM companies figure out

00:39:31   a compensation model, kind of like the what are the ASCAP thing or whatever when you want

00:39:34   to do like a cover of a song or whatever.

00:39:37   You can't just cover a song for free but also there is a system in place that has come up

00:39:41   with a market value for doing covers such that covers still are allowed to happen but

00:39:45   people are still compensated for them.

00:39:47   I don't know a lot about that whole system but in my mind that's kind of the idea of

00:39:52   it's not a free for all but it's also not so onerous that no one can ever sing covers

00:39:56   anymore and it's also people do get paid.

00:40:01   Maybe wishful thinking we'll see how this works out in the court case but I do like

00:40:05   the idea of there being some kind of value exchange somewhere here and I'm happy to

00:40:09   let the market figure out that value exchange but in the absence of any guidelines I'm

00:40:13   not happy to let people just say everything is free and we're taking it all and we'll

00:40:17   suck every ounce of value out of it, sorry.

00:40:20   I mean that's capitalism isn't it?

00:40:23   That's unbridled capitalism.

00:40:24   We need capitalism with regulations right?

00:40:27   That's laissez-faire capitalism.

00:40:28   Yeah it tends not to work very well long term.

00:40:32   The tricky part is figuring out what should those guidelines be and who should they accidentally

00:40:36   favor usually rich people.

00:40:37   And everyone has a different answer.

00:40:40   Speaking of let's talk Massimo.

00:40:41   So on the 26th of December the Biden administration said we're not going to do anything about

00:40:47   this and the Apple watch sales ban did indeed land in the US.

00:40:53   Apple had a statement again this is 26th of December.

00:40:56   Apple says at Apple we work tirelessly to create products and services that meaningfully

00:41:01   impact users lives.

00:41:02   It's what drives our teams clinical design and engineering to dedicate years to developing

00:41:07   scientifically validated health fitness and wellness features for Apple watch and we are

00:41:11   inspired that millions of people around the world have benefited greatly from this product.

00:41:14   Hang on just a moment here.

00:41:16   Keep in mind what you're reading is a statement after the Biden administration said nah we're

00:41:20   gonna let this go through.

00:41:22   We've gotten more than halfway through this statement and Apple has said we're pretty

00:41:27   great.

00:41:28   It wouldn't be like a statement we are very disappointed with the Biden administration's

00:41:30   blah blah blah.

00:41:34   Over one half of this statement is like we just work so hard on this and we're so wonderful.

00:41:39   Anyway now what do they say?

00:41:41   We strongly disagree with the US ITC decision and resulting exclusion order and are taking

00:41:47   all measures to return Apple watch series 9 Apple watch ultra 2 to customers in the

00:41:50   US as soon as possible.

00:41:52   And 26 December.

00:41:53   I bet they're gonna pay Masa all bunch of money right all measures.

00:41:56   Let's see what happens next.

00:41:58   Surely that's what they'll do.

00:41:59   27 December at 1155 a.m. Apple watch ban has been temporarily paused.

00:42:04   So the Verge reports that one day after the Apple watch import ban went into effect the

00:42:08   US Court of Appeals is instituting a brief pause while it considers a longer pause.

00:42:12   So the answer is what avenues were still open.

00:42:15   Still plenty of things they can do in the courts and they are like I mean it's always

00:42:18   been Apple's play here is they're going to exhaust every possibility asking Biden to

00:42:22   help them appealing.

00:42:23   They'll do all those things.

00:42:26   We'll see if they get to a termination condition which involves giving Masa money.

00:42:31   Well that was the 27th at 1155 a.m. the 27th at 521 p.m. Apple resumes Apple watch sales

00:42:37   after the ban is paused with the sales and import bans on hold Apple's resume sales of

00:42:41   series 9 and ultra 2.

00:42:42   So and that's where we stand.

00:42:44   We're recording this on what's today the third.

00:42:47   We still have Apple watch on sale in the United States from Apple.

00:42:50   So all's well right.

00:42:53   I mean that's pretty amazing considering they halted sales like a couple days after Christmas

00:42:59   and then one day later they turn them back on.

00:43:01   I mean again they're still it's still whining its way through the court system.

00:43:04   But if you had to if Apple could have picked this timing I'm not sure they could have picked

00:43:08   anything better.

00:43:09   Like we get all our holiday sales we get one or two days where we file paperwork to you

00:43:15   know we have our last ditch effort Biden save us he's like no don't think so.

00:43:19   And then pulled from the stores and then one day later it's back and you know now we wait

00:43:24   for the next step.

00:43:25   Yeah I mean it worked out pretty well for Apple not so great for Masa now but I mean

00:43:29   we'll see what happens.

00:43:30   Well this is not over yet so further updates as events transpire.

00:43:35   Ultimately I think they're just going to have to settle and they're going to have to license

00:43:39   this whatever this patent is that's that's like that they can't get passed.

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00:45:35   [Music]

00:45:38   2024 baby and we should probably do a little bit of a preview as to what we think is coming

00:45:45   in 2024.

00:45:47   Jon you've been kind enough to put a bunch of items in the show notes for us to discuss.

00:45:52   Did you want to do this top to bottom or are you going to let us just round robin and pick

00:45:55   what we think is interesting?

00:45:56   No, you go through the items.

00:45:57   What I put in the list is things, well it's in our typical show notes fashion, it's things

00:46:01   that we more or less know are coming and what we think about them or we're looking forward

00:46:04   to them or whatever and then things start getting question marks after them as we get

00:46:08   towards the end of the list where it's like maybe these are coming.

00:46:11   So I think we just go one at a time.

00:46:13   Vision Pro it sounds like, I don't have links to put in the show notes handy, but it sounds

00:46:18   like it is imminent.

00:46:21   Probably if I were to wager a guest sometime this month will be at least a formal announcement

00:46:25   as to like when it'll go on sale and whatnot.

00:46:27   So Vision Pro could be anytime now and I am excited for it.

00:46:33   I'm curious to see what the response will be.

00:46:36   I'm curious to see how one goes to buy a Vision Pro.

00:46:39   I mean I know there's been a lot of talk and chatter, if not official statements, that

00:46:42   you'll have to pick it up in store.

00:46:44   I understand that although I have a lot of problems with it, which we can explore if

00:46:48   we really want, but I'm very curious to see how this looks.

00:46:52   I'm curious to see what the gray market looks like because I know that there's a lot of

00:46:56   people including many of our friends that live overseas that are very keen to have their

00:46:59   own Vision Pro.

00:47:01   So how does that work?

00:47:02   If you're willing to fly yourself to New York or Richmond and want to pick up a Vision Pro,

00:47:08   is that something that Apple will sell to you?

00:47:09   Or does it work with a non-American Apple ID?

00:47:13   How does that look?

00:47:14   But all that being said, I'm really excited and really interested to see what this looks

00:47:19   like once it's in the market.

00:47:21   I'm not excited for the work I need to do to get Call Sheet working better on it, which

00:47:26   I've done some of but not enough.

00:47:28   But I am excited overall.

00:47:29   I don't know.

00:47:30   Marco, how do you feel about it?

00:47:31   - Man, I'm gonna have a lot to say about it once I'm allowed to talk about experiences

00:47:37   that I will have with it.

00:47:40   Going to a lab was amazing as a developer, not so great as a podcaster.

00:47:46   - I'm sorry, you're not allowed to characterize your experience, Marco.

00:47:49   Please strike that from the record.

00:47:51   - Yes, I went to a lab, period.

00:47:54   But it is kind of unfortunate that it's hard for me to discuss the Vision Pro and my expectations

00:48:01   and thoughts on it because I have some experience with it that I'm not allowed to talk about.

00:48:07   But hopefully that will be over soon.

00:48:08   I'm with you, Casey.

00:48:09   I think it is probably coming within probably a month.

00:48:12   I think it's very close.

00:48:14   And I am excited about it.

00:48:17   But I also, I'm trying to keep my excitement in check.

00:48:22   As I figure out what am I doing for Overcast for it, looking at the market for it, I think

00:48:28   it's going to be a very slow burn.

00:48:31   Like it's going to be a very slow build up because the volume is just not going to be

00:48:35   there for a while.

00:48:37   There was those rumors from the supply chain that the little screens they're using inside,

00:48:42   that Sony can probably only make one or two million of those screens in a year.

00:48:47   And so there is some speculation from the supply chain, like they might not be able

00:48:51   to make and sell more than maybe a million Vision Pros in the first year.

00:48:56   And if there's any truth to that, if you figure like approximately a year from now,

00:49:01   maybe there's a million of these in active use.

00:49:04   Well, as an app developer, how many of those million people are going to have my app?

00:49:10   If I'm lucky, maybe a few hundred.

00:49:13   Like it's not, it's going to be a very small number of people.

00:49:17   From an app developer's perspective, there is going to be no good reason, I think, to

00:49:22   port your app over to this unless you have a way to capture a huge portion of its users.

00:49:26   I don't think as a podcast app, I don't think I have that.

00:49:29   You should make an app that looks like when you tilt the glasses upward, it's like you're

00:49:33   drinking a beer.

00:49:34   That's the type of app that I'm thinking of with this launch of like, you're right, because

00:49:40   of the supply issues, Apple is capped in how many of these they can physically make, no

00:49:43   matter how many people want them.

00:49:45   And keep in mind, they're $3,500 to start, so it's probably not going to be that many

00:49:48   anyway.

00:49:49   But like, there is the kind of gold rush, like, well, people are going to get their

00:49:53   Vision Pro and they're like, well, I've got this thing.

00:49:55   What kind of apps can I get for it?

00:49:56   And if you have some general purpose app, like it looks like we're talking about the

00:49:59   iPhone app that showed like basically a beer on your phone and use the accelerometer when

00:50:03   you tilted your phone, the liquid level would say level, so you're drinking a beer.

00:50:09   Everyone who had an iPhone got that app because you get an iPhone and you're like, what's

00:50:12   available for this thing?

00:50:13   And it was like seven, you know, not seven things in the store, but relatively speaking,

00:50:16   there were very few apps in the App Store.

00:50:18   And if you were one of those apps and you were a general purpose kind of like, I'll

00:50:22   try it, I just want to try a fun thing for my thing, you could get a massive market share

00:50:26   of the first batch of people who bought an iPhone and make a lot of money.

00:50:30   And that is probably going to be true in the Vision Pro, but I'm not sure a podcast player

00:50:34   is that app.

00:50:35   That's going to be the impulse purchase that you really want to just try out the Vision

00:50:39   Pro.

00:50:40   When I think Vision Pro, I don't think podcasts.

00:50:41   So it's not particularly a visual medium, but someone's going to make that app.

00:50:46   So I think there is going to be a mini gold rush to try to sell to 50% of the million

00:50:50   people who get Vision Pros.

00:50:52   And Casey, to your point about the gray market stuff, this has got to be Apple's nightmare

00:50:56   because Apple hates gray market stuff to begin with.

00:51:00   And the worst thing, the thing Apple always will tell you they don't want and they really,

00:51:04   really don't want, which is we don't want people to have our product and have a crappy

00:51:08   experience because they didn't get it the Apple way.

00:51:11   And nothing could be more problematic when it comes to that situation than a thing that

00:51:16   fits on your face that has different size things that can be different size light shields

00:51:20   and the prescription glasses and all.

00:51:23   There's no way that the gray market is going to give the buyers of those gray market things

00:51:28   what Apple thinks the experience should be.

00:51:30   So you're going to have developers overseas who are using uncomfortable, blurry looking

00:51:35   headsets because it's the only thing they could get and they pick the prescription wrong

00:51:38   and they don't have the right light shield thing and it doesn't fit their face and Apple's

00:51:43   going to be like, "That's not how it's supposed to be.

00:51:45   We want you to have this experience.

00:51:47   That's why you have to wait for us to launch in your country.

00:51:49   Come to the Apple store, we'll scan your face, we'll make sure we find the right..."

00:51:52   But it's like, "Well, I didn't do that.

00:51:54   Instead, someone got it for me and I bought it on eBay and I just hope that the fate shield

00:51:58   wasn't too painful after 30 minutes."

00:52:00   And that's not the experience Apple wants you to have.

00:52:04   They hated gray market iPhones.

00:52:05   They don't like when you use non-official Apple parts.

00:52:09   This is their worst nightmare because the experience of Vision Pro can be so much worse.

00:52:13   The floor is so low if you get one that doesn't fit right and doesn't look right with the

00:52:18   prescription lenses.

00:52:20   And so many people need prescriptions.

00:52:21   I still think about this, not that I'm planning on getting one, but it's like, when I heard

00:52:25   Casey talking when you're on the talk show, talking about the prescription lenses and

00:52:29   stuff, setting aside the price, I was like, "What prescription would I tell Apple?"

00:52:33   Because Goober's like, "Oh, I came to the thing and they just asked what my prescription

00:52:35   was."

00:52:36   Because I have two sets of glasses now.

00:52:38   I haven't moved to bifocals or progressives, but I have my computer glasses that I'm wearing

00:52:42   now to look at my screen and then I have my TV watching glasses and my driving glasses

00:52:46   that are my distance glasses.

00:52:48   I don't know which prescription I should give them.

00:52:51   What distance, because my computer glasses are made to be comfortable for me looking

00:52:54   at my screen that's at arm's length, right?

00:52:56   And my driving glasses are basically 20/20 at infinity for distance stuff.

00:53:02   What prescription would I even give Apple?

00:53:05   And believe me, I'm not the only old person with two different prescriptions up close

00:53:09   and far away.

00:53:10   There are a lot of us.

00:53:12   And so that's got to be part of the experience.

00:53:14   It's not like you're going to go into Apple store and they're going to say, "Oh, what's

00:53:17   your prescription?"

00:53:18   Because that's not an easy question.

00:53:19   You have to say, "What's your prescription when viewing things from X distance?"

00:53:24   And I don't even know what that distance is.

00:53:25   Is it the distance that they typically hang windows by default in front of you?

00:53:28   Is it the distance the screens are from your eyes?

00:53:30   Well, I think yes.

00:53:31   I mean, remember we talked about that whole like convergence effect thing earlier in the

00:53:35   fall.

00:53:37   And it does seem like they are optimizing for the equivalent distance of whatever it

00:53:45   is like a few meters in front of you, like wherever the default spot is they put windows

00:53:48   and kind of like on this axis around you.

00:53:51   Meters?

00:53:52   How far is that in feet?

00:53:54   Yeah, it's something like eight or 10 feet in front of you, I think.

00:53:58   Yeah.

00:53:59   But all this is to say that getting the experience Apple wants you to have from their Vision

00:54:04   Pro is going to be trickier than any other Apple product.

00:54:07   Even more so than the watch.

00:54:08   And gray market is just going to exacerbate that.

00:54:11   You know, that's just part of being an early adopter and people will suffer through it.

00:54:14   But boy, it's got to really eat Apple up because they spent so long trying to make this product

00:54:18   and get the right set of face shields and they know how it should work like internally

00:54:22   or whatever, just to know that like 20% of the, basically everyone outside the US who

00:54:26   has this thing is having a substandard experience.

00:54:29   You know, what can you do?

00:54:31   I think the Vision Pro is going to be the story of the first few months of the year

00:54:36   at least.

00:54:37   I'm a little concerned for Apple that the press and like the hype won't stick as much

00:54:43   as they want it to because it's going to be such a slow build up of a market, I think.

00:54:48   They have put so much into this product, like in terms of their time and resources and everything.

00:54:56   But when was the last time Apple launched a really high profile brand new product that

00:55:03   was not expected to be a massive volume hit at the start?

00:55:07   Well, it was the iPhone.

00:55:08   Yeah, that's it.

00:55:09   And that was a long time ago and that was a very different company.

00:55:11   And you know, now, you can say something like, oh, the Mac Pro, but that's not nearly the

00:55:16   resources that went into the Vision Pro.

00:55:18   They haven't launched anything that they're fully behind as like, this is a new paradigm.

00:55:24   Like the watch was the closest you could say, it's like, this is a new way of computing

00:55:27   or whatever.

00:55:28   But like, I think this is fine for Apple because I think they'll weather it fine because it's

00:55:31   almost kind of a relief to essentially be supply constrained in the first year, give

00:55:36   them time to get their feet under them, kind of like with the watch.

00:55:38   Like Apple has an idea of what they think this thing will be good for, but what does

00:55:41   the market think?

00:55:43   And so this will be a big story in early 2024.

00:55:46   And I think it will settle down and people will forget about it and move on.

00:55:50   And that will give the product time to grow into itself, right?

00:55:54   And because, you know, either they all sell out or the story is Apple couldn't even sell

00:55:58   a million of them and it's too expensive, blah, blah, blah.

00:56:00   With that voice too.

00:56:01   Yeah, Apple's not going to be scared, but Apple's not going to go, Oh my God, forget

00:56:04   it.

00:56:05   We did so badly.

00:56:06   We're just going to cancel this product.

00:56:07   No, they're going to, they're going to ride out 2024.

00:56:08   No matter what happens, they're going to learn from what's out there in the market and 2025

00:56:12   they'll regroup and you know, continue on.

00:56:14   So I'm, I'm not worried about all the inevitable stories and the low sales due to either supply

00:56:21   constraints or lack of demand or whatever.

00:56:23   And even if it's best case and we're like, they sell out instantly and people are spending

00:56:27   huge amounts of money for the month in the gray market and everybody wants them.

00:56:31   And it's just so exciting, but they can't make them.

00:56:33   And they make the stories like, Oh, Apple should have, you know, found another supplier

00:56:35   for those screens or whatever.

00:56:37   Even if the very best happens in that scenario, it's still going to be like just a, you know,

00:56:43   a rookie year for the vision pro don't expect it to take over the world.

00:56:47   The iPhone, even the iPhone didn't take over the world in its first year of sales.

00:56:50   It was a curiosity.

00:56:51   It was a thing that people who could tolerate AT&T use.

00:56:55   And it was like, I'm not so sure about this.

00:56:57   Like, and the iPhone is like, you know, the best selling consumer product ever.

00:57:00   So do not expect the vision pro to do better than the iPhone in its first year.

00:57:04   And if it does 10 times worse, don't worry about it.

00:57:08   I feel like Apple is pretty dedicated to this, even if it 100% flops, I think they're going

00:57:13   to keep plugging away at this.

00:57:14   Well, and I think we're going like, I don't think Apple is going to have any trouble selling

00:57:20   as many as they can make this year.

00:57:21   Like that's, they're going to sell every single one they can make because they can't make

00:57:24   that money.

00:57:25   Right.

00:57:26   It's going to be backordered.

00:57:27   It's going to be hard to get like the it's going to be, it, they're going to sell them

00:57:30   all.

00:57:31   That's not going to be the problem.

00:57:32   Um, but what I, what I am envisioning is that people are going to buy it with a set of expectations

00:57:40   about what they're going to be able to use it for.

00:57:43   And then that will change because that's what happens with new tech categories.

00:57:46   It happens.

00:57:47   It happened with the Apple watch.

00:57:48   It happened before that with the iPad.

00:57:49   Remember the iPhone didn't have apps, didn't have an app store when it launched.

00:57:52   So talk about changing the way people use the device that people who have the first

00:57:56   iPhone are using it differently than we are because there was no app store.

00:58:00   And this is going to go through the same kind of hype curve of like, you know, you're going

00:58:03   to have, you know, now before it's actually out, but after it's been announced, you have

00:58:07   people saying, Oh my God, this is, you know, we're going to have to rethink cities.

00:58:10   Like we're, I'll be able to get all my work done in this headset.

00:58:14   I will, I'll never have to buy a computer or monitor again.

00:58:17   And you're going to have those people go out and buy it.

00:58:19   It's not going to fulfill that expectation for some percentage of those people.

00:58:23   The expectations are going to crash saying, I tried living my entire life in a vision

00:58:26   pro for a month and this is what happened.

00:58:29   My face is all sweaty and my nose hurts.

00:58:31   Right.

00:58:32   So then the expectations are going to crash.

00:58:33   You're going to have people like Federico who like actually will figure out how to get

00:58:37   all their work done in it.

00:58:38   And it's going to be, you know, a whole bunch of complex hacks to make it work for you.

00:58:43   And then, you know, and you're going to have people say, actually I traveled only with

00:58:46   this device for this trip and here's how I did it.

00:58:48   So there's going to be this, you know, this big roller coaster of press for it from people

00:58:52   who were like, you know, kicking the tires, trying it out, you know, tech enthusiasts,

00:58:55   people who are trying to like live in it and do, you know, way too much stuff in it.

00:59:00   Then you're going to have all the people saying, I tried this and it was bad for Reason X and

00:59:06   then all that's going to crash.

00:59:07   And then people are going to try it again and try different things and some new app

00:59:11   will come out for it that will make it better.

00:59:13   And it's going to be that kind of roller coaster for a while.

00:59:16   It's going to be a fun year in the sense that like that kind of experimentation I always

00:59:19   find really fun and entertaining for both myself to try to do it, but mostly to listen

00:59:24   and watch to what other people are doing with it and kind of experience it vicariously through

00:59:29   other people who have more time than I do.

00:59:32   But at the end of that roller coaster, I think this product is going to be really great for

00:59:38   the market that it finds.

00:59:41   But that's not going to be a big market for a while for lots of reasons, price, supply,

00:59:46   apps, like it's going to be, there's lots of reasons why it's not going to be a huge

00:59:49   market yet.

00:59:51   And I hope that everyone including Apple is able to keep perspective that when it comes

00:59:57   out and does not set the whole world on fire, that that's not necessarily a failure, it's

01:00:02   just the early part of its lifetime and the earliest part of this market.

01:00:08   But ultimately I'm very excited for that market.

01:00:11   I think there's a lot of good uses for it, but it's going to be a slow start.

01:00:15   Marco, do you plan on buying one?

01:00:17   Of course, immediately.

01:00:18   Because here's the thing, as a developer of these platforms, my app will be there, people

01:00:25   will use it.

01:00:26   Now, I was looking earlier today, I allow people to run my iPad app on Apple Silicon

01:00:31   Macs.

01:00:32   That has now accumulated a very large number of Mac users.

01:00:36   I have more Mac users than I have iPad users, which that's not what I would have guessed.

01:00:45   But that's the reality.

01:00:47   I plan to allow my app to run as long as it doesn't have major problems, and I will see

01:00:52   what kind of usage it gets.

01:00:54   And I will make decisions from there about when and whether to make a native version,

01:01:00   but I have some ideas for a native version I think are good.

01:01:03   I'm going to want to try them.

01:01:04   I'm going to want to try them immediately.

01:01:06   Because even though my likely market of Vision Pro owners in the first year is probably going

01:01:14   to be fewer people than use the large widget.

01:01:20   It's going to be some slice of a slice of a slice.

01:01:23   Numbers wise, relative to my entire product and my entire audience for my app, it's going

01:01:27   to be nothing.

01:01:29   But it's important for me to be there for other reasons.

01:01:33   There's value in the people who are the influencers in the press, there's value in them seeing

01:01:40   my app there and using it and knowing it's there.

01:01:43   There's a certain level of demand there that I want to address from that kind of person.

01:01:47   There's value to Apple and therefore value to me indirectly through favor with Apple.

01:01:53   So there's all sorts of reasons why I would probably want to be there anyway.

01:01:56   Numbers are not one of them.

01:01:58   And I expect the Vision Pro and the Overcast app for it to be a massively money losing

01:02:02   operation for me for a while.

01:02:06   But I absolutely will be buying one the second I can get my hands on one.

01:02:10   And I think a large portion of the early buyers will be developers and companies that are

01:02:18   buying it to test their stuff on and to develop for.

01:02:21   But we'll see.

01:02:22   That being said, a lot of small developers are super uninterested in paying $3,500 for

01:02:29   this.

01:02:30   Hi!

01:02:31   Right, I think there's...

01:02:32   It's not as much of a slam dunk for every developer out there to buy this as say the

01:02:38   first iPad was.

01:02:39   Because we had different expectations and it was way cheaper.

01:02:43   This is very expensive and anyone who's like running the numbers is like, "Well, how much

01:02:48   money am I going to make with my software on Vision Pro?

01:02:51   And is that going to help pay for the $3,500?"

01:02:54   No.

01:02:55   No, it will not.

01:02:57   Not for a while at least.

01:02:59   So that's going to impact the market to some degree.

01:03:03   It's not going to be purchased by every iOS developer out there.

01:03:07   That's not going to happen for lots of reasons.

01:03:09   But they will be bought by some developers and some YouTubers and influencers and people

01:03:16   who want to try it.

01:03:17   Business travelers, rich people.

01:03:20   There is a market for it and it's going to be really fun and amazing.

01:03:24   But it's not going to be the next iPad or Apple Watch for a while if ever.

01:03:29   Yeah, I don't know what I'm going to do because I don't know that I have an overabundance

01:03:35   of interest from a user's perspective.

01:03:38   But I do feel some amount of responsibility as the developer of CallSheet.

01:03:43   I feel a fairly considerable amount of responsibility as one of the three hosts of this program.

01:03:49   And since Jon doesn't want to take the fall and it's always up to you and me to take care

01:03:52   of this, then…

01:03:53   Yeah, I bought this Mac Pro.

01:03:55   You've got a lot of spending to do.

01:03:57   I mean, only a few Vision Pros though.

01:04:00   Yeah, right?

01:04:01   Well, then again, he did option that Mac Pro.

01:04:03   So we're looking at like, I don't know, 10 Vision Pros.

01:04:06   How much did you spend on that damn thing?

01:04:07   It doesn't matter.

01:04:08   No, maybe three or four.

01:04:09   Yeah, but anyway, it certainly covers both of your Vision Pros.

01:04:13   So go ahead.

01:04:14   Oh, I see.

01:04:15   I see.

01:04:16   Plus you both have apps that legitimately could be on the platform.

01:04:18   It's not like you're just doing it for the show.

01:04:19   Honestly, CallSheet, it probably has a much bigger audience on Vision Pro than Overcast

01:04:22   does.

01:04:23   Exactly.

01:04:24   You're watching a movie, you look to your left and you say some voice thing that says,

01:04:28   "Who is that?"

01:04:29   And then your app captures the video.

01:04:31   No, forget it.

01:04:32   You can't do that.

01:04:33   You can't do any of that.

01:04:34   I think it was during the talk show that Gruber and I were talking this out and it occurred

01:04:40   to me that I don't think CallSheet can run side by side with a video player because the

01:04:45   best of my understanding, a video player is an immersive experience.

01:04:49   There's three different experiences.

01:04:50   There's the windows, I forget what they call them.

01:04:53   Spaces, volumes.

01:04:54   Spaces, that's it.

01:04:55   Thank you.

01:04:56   But I will remind you what the early versions of iOS and watchOS and iPadOS look like and

01:05:02   what their limitations were and how long those lasted.

01:05:04   So don't worry too much about it.

01:05:07   I know the limitations that they have now, but this is like the 1.0-iest of 1.0s and

01:05:13   inevitably once this product comes in contact with developers and apps and users, that is

01:05:19   all going to change so fast.

01:05:21   It even changed on the iPad eventually.

01:05:23   So I have much faith that applications like yours will eventually be able to do the same

01:05:27   things.

01:05:28   But I do agree with you that right now there's probably a bunch of annoying limitations that

01:05:31   make it difficult for you to do what you want.

01:05:33   And then you should give that feedback to Apple and they'll incorporate that into the

01:05:36   next version of the OS.

01:05:37   Well, honestly, first of all, I think you'll be in the clear.

01:05:41   Second of all, if you're not, app switching exists and people figure it out pretty quickly.

01:05:44   So I think you're fine either way.

01:05:48   But I think this is probably going to be a device that gets a lot of movie and TV watching

01:05:54   done on it.

01:05:55   So the market for a call sheet is, I think, much more direct than the market for people

01:06:02   who want an audio-only podcast player.

01:06:04   Well, they could be listening to podcasts while they're working on their spreadsheets

01:06:08   and their Vision Pro headset.

01:06:09   They can.

01:06:10   I mean, and that's why people use the Mac app.

01:06:12   It's hard for me to understand the needs of that market because I'm not a listen to podcasts

01:06:16   while working kind of person.

01:06:19   So I don't ever use Overcast on my Mac, but I use it constantly on my phone because I'm

01:06:25   like when I'm out and around doing stuff and walking the dog and washing dishes.

01:06:28   That's when I listen to podcasts.

01:06:29   But I don't understand how people listen to podcasts while working because my brain doesn't

01:06:32   work that way.

01:06:33   So I don't know how people are going to use it necessarily in Vision Pro, but it's not

01:06:36   like I can envision a situation where you might want an experience in Vision Pro where

01:06:48   you're transported to some place.

01:06:51   You want to hang out on top of a mountain and maybe just put a podcast on and listen

01:06:55   to it.

01:06:56   I can envision that being a market.

01:06:57   Again, I don't know how big of a market.

01:06:59   Maybe a few hundred people in the first year.

01:07:02   It's not going to be a big market, but I can envision use cases like that.

01:07:08   The Vision Pro is a very broad product.

01:07:11   It can do a lot of things.

01:07:13   We don't really know yet what is going to be its most popular uses, but I can hazard

01:07:20   a guess that it's going to be very consumption focused in practice.

01:07:26   Very much like the iPad where I think there will be people who will do productivity work

01:07:32   on it, but I don't think that's going to be the most common case.

01:07:35   I think it is much more likely that people will use it more for media consumption and

01:07:42   immersive experience consumption than doing your spreadsheets and email.

01:07:47   I think, again, you will be able to do your spreadsheets and email in it.

01:07:50   I don't see that being a huge part of its use case.

01:07:54   Are people going to listen to audio podcasts?

01:07:58   While they watch videos, probably not, but while they sit on a mountaintop, maybe.

01:08:03   So again, this all remains to be seen.

01:08:06   It is a very clear cut case for CallSheet because there's going to be, I think, a lot

01:08:10   of video watching in this device.

01:08:11   Yeah, we'll see, but I am not looking forward to spending $3,500 plus on something that

01:08:19   its use as a person to me, I'm not entirely convinced yet.

01:08:24   But again, you know what?

01:08:25   You're going to have one on day one.

01:08:26   I think I'm going to have, I've convinced myself I need to.

01:08:29   You're going to buy it and you're going to grumble about the price and you're going to

01:08:32   love it.

01:08:33   I am going to buy it.

01:08:34   I'm going to grumble about the price.

01:08:35   I think I'll say it's extremely cool.

01:08:37   The question is, will I pick it up after completing whatever I need to do with CallSheet?

01:08:41   I don't know.

01:08:42   Maybe I will.

01:08:43   Maybe I'll love it.

01:08:44   I don't know, but we'll see.

01:08:45   Gosh, I wish I could talk about what happened at the labs.

01:08:47   Anyway.

01:08:48   I know me too.

01:08:49   I'm dying here.

01:08:50   It's killing me.

01:08:51   All right, Jon, tell us about OLED iPads.

01:08:52   What do we think is happening there?

01:08:55   We just both talked about Vision Pro, but OLED iPads are the product that I'm most excited

01:08:59   about for 2020 far from Apple, believe it or not, because I am for sure going to buy

01:09:04   these if they are OLED iPads because I use my iPad to watch video all the time and an

01:09:12   OLED iPad would do a better job of showing video because it would have better black levels.

01:09:16   I want this so bad and it hasn't been that long since I got my iPad.

01:09:23   I have an M1 iPad.

01:09:24   It's not that old, but the OLED screen is reason enough for me to upgrade.

01:09:28   For the wider market, as we've discussed in the past, we hope that they rationalize the

01:09:32   iPad line, update the pros to have the landscape camera, figure out what they're going to do

01:09:35   with the pencil.

01:09:37   After taking the year off, essentially, 2023, the iPad took that whole year off.

01:09:41   All we got was the weird pencil.

01:09:43   2024 is the year of actually releasing iPads, some of which we hope are good.

01:09:50   The only reason I highlight this as item number two is because this is the one I'm definitely

01:09:53   going to buy.

01:09:54   You two are going to try to get Vision Pros if you possibly can if they don't sell out

01:09:56   in the first 30 seconds.

01:09:58   I am absolutely buying an iPad and I think I'll have an easier time getting one and it

01:10:01   will be cheaper.

01:10:02   Yeah, well, it's hard to be more expensive.

01:10:04   Well, if you got the 8TB model, maybe it would be the same price.

01:10:07   We'll see.

01:10:08   And by the way, Vision Pro starting at $3,500.

01:10:10   We don't know the details of that statement yet.

01:10:12   All they said was starting at $3,500.

01:10:15   Each individual prescription lens is $1,500.

01:10:18   These are Porsche option prices.

01:10:20   I know you're joking, but it wouldn't surprise me if they are hilariously expensive.

01:10:24   Yeah, blue stitching, an extra $400.

01:10:26   Just hope that you can't adjust the storage at all.

01:10:30   Well, but what is the storage going to be used for?

01:10:33   How many people buying it will even know yet?

01:10:36   I don't know how much storage I need on my Vision Pro.

01:10:38   I have no idea.

01:10:39   Better get the big one, I guess.

01:10:42   Well, or do you want to invest that much extra money in version 1.0 that's going to be obsolete

01:10:47   first?

01:10:48   I get the big Apple TV.

01:10:50   It's a little bit less expensive, but you know.

01:10:52   Yeah, it's like what, is it $50, $30?

01:10:54   Yeah, exactly.

01:10:55   Yeah.

01:10:56   And the iPad I think is going to be, I've kind of fallen out of using the iPad for almost

01:11:00   anything, but I go in phases.

01:11:02   I go up and down.

01:11:03   I'm sure when they launch, I'm going to be like, "Oh, I want that," because it's new

01:11:06   and shiny and OLED.

01:11:07   And I'll rationalize myself buying one for some reason.

01:11:09   Especially if it's dual layer OLED screen that some of the rumors are interested.

01:11:13   Super bright, really amazing quality.

01:11:15   It would essentially be the best quality screen available on an Apple product because it will

01:11:19   surpass the LCD, mini LED things on the MacBook Pros and certainly surpass the XDR.

01:11:25   Yeah, that would be great.

01:11:28   But I'm mostly just curious to see what they do with the iPad Pro especially because the

01:11:35   iPad Pro has not seen a meaningful update redesign since 2018.

01:11:41   It is pretty long in the tooth now.

01:11:44   I really want to know, do they address things like the pencil attachment mechanism, any

01:11:50   kind of pencil charging changes because there's rumors that there's going to be a new Pro

01:11:54   Pencil as well.

01:11:55   What do they do about where the camera is?

01:11:57   One of the biggest annoyances of using the iPad Pro for me is that the camera is still

01:12:01   on the short side and I'm almost 100% using it in the little keyboard flappy thing.

01:12:07   Not the Magic Trackpad equipped one, the one before that, the straight one that Craig Federighi

01:12:11   uses.

01:12:13   So I use that one and so the camera is always right under my left hand.

01:12:19   When you pick up the iPad, it is directly under where you pick it up by.

01:12:23   And it warns you about it, which is when you have to add a software feature to compensate

01:12:26   for a hardware thing, that's when you know the hardware thing has outlived its useful

01:12:30   life.

01:12:31   Yeah, and they did update one of the lower end iPads to have the camera on the long edge

01:12:37   like a laptop.

01:12:38   So if you're holding it in landscape, it's in the top middle.

01:12:40   That I think is the clear answer for where it should be on the iPad Pro and probably

01:12:45   on all iPads as well.

01:12:47   But it interferes with where the pencil attaches right now in the current iPad Pro.

01:12:51   So this is a question like, where do you put the pencil?

01:12:54   If you put it on the short side, that has other downsides.

01:12:58   You can still put it on the long side but change where the magnets are so you can fit

01:13:02   the camera between them or something.

01:13:04   There's options.

01:13:05   Yeah, that's what everyone assumes they're going to do.

01:13:06   That's the whole reason for the new pencil.

01:13:08   I'm sure the pencil will have new features but the main reason is, oh, we have to rejigger

01:13:11   the internals to make room for the camera that's on the long side and that'll be the

01:13:15   Apple Pencil 3 or whatever.

01:13:17   And I just want to say that if they come out with the new iPad and it has a OLED screen

01:13:21   and they change nothing else about it, I'm still getting it.

01:13:23   Because I'm not going to be like, oh, I'm going to wait until they have the landscape

01:13:26   camera.

01:13:27   That's not what I'm using the iPad for.

01:13:28   I do have a pencil and I do use it and it is annoying that my hand covers the FaceTime

01:13:33   camera and everything like that but still, no matter what they do, if they do like the

01:13:38   new Mac Pro that launched this very podcast, it's exactly the same iPad as we have now.

01:13:45   The only difference is a new OLED screen, I'm still getting it.

01:13:48   I mean, that would still be a huge upgrade.

01:13:49   And it would be incredibly disappointing to everybody but me.

01:13:52   Yeah.

01:13:53   But I do hope there's more.

01:13:55   I mean, as you mentioned, 2023, there were literally no new iPads released and the state

01:14:01   of the iPad lineup, as we discussed previously, is really messy right now because it seems

01:14:04   like they're halfway through multiple different important transitions, things like moving

01:14:10   the camera, unifying the pencils, stuff like this.

01:14:12   There's a lot of half done transitions in the iPad lineup.

01:14:16   There's way too many iPads.

01:14:18   The differentiation between them is odd and confusing.

01:14:21   There's lots of like, you know, little nitpicks of like, well, you can use this keyboard with

01:14:25   this one but not with this very similar one.

01:14:27   They have three different iPads that are all like within a half inch screen size of each

01:14:30   other.

01:14:31   Like it's really, it's a weird lineup.

01:14:33   What I expect and hope from 2024 for the iPad is for us to finally get the answer of like,

01:14:39   where is the iPad going and give us a coherent lineup that puts us there.

01:14:44   That I really hope for and I think is likely to actually happen.

01:14:48   I'm sure they're going to do the thing where they keep around an old model of the cheap

01:14:51   one, but they're already still doing that.

01:14:54   So they currently have two base models basically, like the more modern design one and the one

01:15:00   that still has the home button and the forehead and chin.

01:15:03   And so hopefully they're able to get rid of the home button one and finally move the more

01:15:06   modern one down to that slot and then give us the new base model.

01:15:11   So there's a lot to do in the iPad lineup.

01:15:14   It seems like they're slated to do all of it this year basically, because I think every

01:15:19   iPad approximately is due for an update.

01:15:21   So we will see.

01:15:23   I hope they do it.

01:15:24   I hope they do a good job and I hope whatever changes are coming to the iPad Pro were worth

01:15:30   the wait from 2018.

01:15:31   - Fair enough.

01:15:33   All right, M3 Ultra, maybe in the Mac studio, perhaps in a new Mac Pro.

01:15:40   What do we think about that?

01:15:41   - I mean, I guess really this could have been inverted, but it shows where my interest lies.

01:15:46   The Mac Studio and Mac Pro are due to be updated this year.

01:15:50   They will presumably get the M3 Ultra, which is a chip that we assume will exist, and it

01:15:53   will just be two M3 Maxes stuck together in the usual way.

01:15:56   But the thing is the M3 Max is amazing and two of them will be twice as amazing.

01:16:00   So that will be a really good chip.

01:16:02   And despite the fact that the Mac Studio will surely come with the M3 Max, it will also

01:16:07   come with the M3 Ultra and that's gonna really differentiate it from the rest of the product

01:16:10   plan.

01:16:11   I don't expect any other changes to these products other than them just existing and

01:16:16   getting the new chip.

01:16:17   And for the Mac Studio, I think that's fine.

01:16:19   And for the Mac Pro, it is exactly as disappointing as last year's Mac Pro.

01:16:23   No change there.

01:16:25   In particular, the M3 Ultra Max Studio, I feel like is becoming increasingly essential

01:16:31   for Apple's supposed ambitions in gaming.

01:16:35   They have a long way to go there, but it is nice to be able to have something that they

01:16:40   sell that has more GPU grunt than a laptop, right?

01:16:44   And the Mac Studio is gonna have twice as much GPU grunt as their fastest laptop because

01:16:48   it'll have two M3 Maxes in there with twice the GPU grunt.

01:16:52   Does that make a difference for the tiny amount of games that exist?

01:16:55   Well, probably not, but at the very least, again, we'll see how it performs in the benchmarks,

01:17:01   but something better than a laptop is kind of one of those like really low bar that Apple

01:17:08   needs to clear to start taking itself seriously as a gaming company.

01:17:12   And we've discussed this many times at best.

01:17:14   It's great that they've raised the floor, that none of their computers stink anymore.

01:17:18   They're all pretty good, but you gotta have at least one really good one, one pretty okay

01:17:24   one.

01:17:25   You know what I mean?

01:17:26   And that is the role of the M3 Ultra.

01:17:27   It's not the Mac Pro.

01:17:28   It's the most popular thing for games, but the Mac Studio is small, cheaper than the

01:17:33   Mac Pro.

01:17:34   And, you know, it'll, it should be, you know, close to twice as fast when running game stuff

01:17:40   because it's got twice the GPU.

01:17:41   So I'm looking forward to it.

01:17:42   I'm not planning on buying that.

01:17:44   I'm still, you know, again, my, the clock on my 2019 Mac Pro is mostly dictated by Apple.

01:17:50   I was thinking over the holiday that like, how long would I be willing to keep using

01:17:55   this Mac Pro after Apple stops supporting it with the latest version of Mac OS?

01:17:59   And I think that is a non-zero amount of time for me because I do want to wait to buy at

01:18:05   the right time.

01:18:06   You know what I mean?

01:18:07   I want, I'm impressed by the M3 series, especially the M3 Max.

01:18:11   The M3 Max is often benchmarking at higher than the M2 Ultra in certain tests, right?

01:18:16   So I feel like they're, they're pressing on the high end.

01:18:19   I want to see what an M4 or an M5 looks like if I can hold out that long.

01:18:23   So that's all.

01:18:25   I just, I look forward to these computers existing and I look forward to seeing the

01:18:28   benchmarks and I'm ready to continue to be disappointed by the Mac Pro.

01:18:34   So what is, what is the current plan as of the beginning of 2024 when Apple says no more

01:18:41   new Mac OS releases for Intel, do you immediately buy a Apple Silicon Mac Pro?

01:18:48   Do you just, do you slum it and buy a studio?

01:18:50   No, no.

01:18:51   I'm, I'm willing, I'm willing to be in, you know, it's stuck in amber of like, okay, uh,

01:18:58   there, it's not supported anymore.

01:18:59   I'm just going to keep using it after the version is released that I can't run anymore.

01:19:06   How long will I last in that state?

01:19:08   I don't know.

01:19:09   If you'd asked me before, I'd say, well, as soon as that happens, I'm going to buy one.

01:19:11   So I'm never going to be in that state.

01:19:12   But now I'm thinking that I am willing to be on the previous year's OS that Marco can

01:19:18   never remember the name of, uh, for a non-zero amount of time.

01:19:22   Is that going to be six months?

01:19:23   Is that going to be a year?

01:19:24   It's kind of be like me and buying TVs.

01:19:26   Like I want to pick the right time to buy.

01:19:28   I, I w ideally I would like to wait to see them do something more than the current ultra

01:19:35   strategy with their top end chip.

01:19:37   You know what I mean?

01:19:38   Even I, even if I buy it in a Mac studio, I would love to see, as we discussed in the

01:19:41   past, a different packaging arrangement or, you know, something different than we seem

01:19:45   to do with them one through M three for, with respect to the ultra, right?

01:19:49   If I can hold out that long, I will, if I can't, then I'll just get an M four ultra

01:19:52   max studio.

01:19:53   Like that's my plan essentially.

01:19:54   Like whatever, whatever that is, when the time comes when I just can't hold that any

01:19:58   longer and it's just untenable and I, you know, maybe I need to update it to, to, to

01:20:03   do dev work on my apps or whatever, whatever the situation is when I get pressed to do

01:20:06   it.

01:20:07   If assuming there's still the Mac pro is still like it is, I'm going to end up getting a

01:20:11   max studio with whatever the best ultra is.

01:20:13   Cause well, I know we're going off on a tangent and it's my fault, but what do you feel like

01:20:19   your Mac pro is uniquely good at that the studio isn't, I know the obvious answer is

01:20:24   gaming now, but that won't be the, that's not likely to be the case in any future Mac

01:20:28   pro.

01:20:29   So like you're not, you don't have 340 hard drives in there.

01:20:31   Do you?

01:20:32   I mean, I do have a bunch.

01:20:34   I have, I have all my storage is internal.

01:20:36   Well, except for my windows drive, which is external, but I do like my, I have an internal,

01:20:40   why is that external?

01:20:41   If everything else is internal, I have an internal.

01:20:43   I have an internal time machine drive at an internal super duper clone.

01:20:45   And then I have the regular boot disc and I have swapped video cards many times.

01:20:49   And I know what you're saying.

01:20:50   Like, well, you're not gonna be able to run PC games because it's not X86 yada yada.

01:20:54   But I do want to buy something with GPU grunt that essentially is going to be sitting there

01:20:58   idle in the hopes that Apple's gaming strategy bears fruit or at the worst case that I can

01:21:05   boot into Linux and play like steam games that are for the steam deck.

01:21:08   You know what I mean?

01:21:09   Like I want the GPU grunt to be there speculatively.

01:21:12   Like I don't, I, it is not as sure thing as I, Hey, I can, I can put this thing into windows

01:21:16   and play windows games.

01:21:17   That is a sure thing, right?

01:21:18   It's easy to know why am I getting, why do I want a Mac with more GPU grunt?

01:21:23   That's speculative.

01:21:24   That's me crossing my fingers and saying, boy, I hope I can do something gaming related

01:21:29   with this extra GPU grunt.

01:21:31   And you know, maybe I'll get burned.

01:21:32   Maybe it'll turns out that for the millionth time Apple's gaming strategy won't work out

01:21:35   and I can't run windows and I can't run Linux games with proton and stuff.

01:21:40   But that's the plan.

01:21:41   Why won't you put your windows boot drive in your, in the, in the machine?

01:21:45   You feel like it's tainting it, don't you?

01:21:47   I mean, that's a yes.

01:21:48   It's mostly because like the windows boot drive.

01:21:51   Yeah, I, it probably should be inside the machine, but the tainting is not the reason

01:21:56   I did it, but it's kind of, it goes on one of my crappier SSDs cause you know, it doesn't

01:22:01   really matter.

01:22:02   And I think it's changed a few times and it was such a pain to get it working on the external

01:22:05   one.

01:22:06   That was kind of like sunk cost fallacy.

01:22:07   But uh, anyway, yeah, I'm probably, I think this thing is probably in its final or, or

01:22:10   arrangement of components after many, many swaps and stuff where it's, it's all solid

01:22:14   state.

01:22:15   It's got that one external, Oh, you know what I mean?

01:22:17   When I do this, when I did the Sonoma drive, that was also external cause that's like a

01:22:20   throwaway one that I'm constantly erasing and stuff and I use it on different computers.

01:22:23   So fair enough.

01:22:25   All right.

01:22:26   I phone 16 I don't know too much of what to expect from this.

01:22:30   Obviously we've talked about the capture button, which I think could be very interesting and

01:22:34   I'm optimistic about that.

01:22:36   I'm slightly terrified about dropping the five X, uh, tetra prison thing into the regular

01:22:42   size phones.

01:22:43   Cause I don't know which one I would buy then cause I both like and you don't know you would,

01:22:48   you would come back to the medium side.

01:22:50   I think I would, I think I would, especially since the rumor is that the 16 is going to

01:22:54   be actually be a little bit bigger than the 15 again.

01:22:57   They're doing it again.

01:22:58   Yeah.

01:22:59   I think what they're, I think the thing that they're doing, remember that the 15 shrunk

01:23:03   because they shrunk the bezels all around it and everything.

01:23:06   I think they're essentially not undoing that, but making the screen bigger by an old bezels

01:23:12   with just to give themselves more room internally for the tetra prison camera and a bunch of

01:23:16   other stuff.

01:23:17   And honestly I'm fine with that because I'm, I'm using a 14 pro now and the 14 pro is bigger

01:23:21   than the 15 pro.

01:23:22   So like 15 pro shrunk a little bit.

01:23:24   It sounds like a 16 is going to be the same size as my current phone.

01:23:26   And keep in mind that I am buying the 16 cause that's my phone year.

01:23:29   So from my perspective, the 16 will be the same size as my current phone.

01:23:32   But from your perspective, it'll be a little bit bigger than your 15 pro.

01:23:35   And from Casey's perspective, it'll be way smaller than that stupid pop saga thing you've

01:23:39   got.

01:23:40   That's true.

01:23:41   Uh, no, I mean there are, there are some things I like about this phone, but I do miss having

01:23:45   a phone that you can legitimately without worry, without a dongle on the back or you

01:23:49   know, a wart on the back.

01:23:51   Use one handed, you know, I, I don't have gigantic, gigantic hands like, you know, Mike

01:23:56   Hurley does.

01:23:57   And so I really do need some sort of afford affordance on there.

01:24:01   And so I am cautious, cautiously, and tentatively optimistic that maybe I would be able to go

01:24:07   back to the, you know, human size phone again, which I think would be kind of nice.

01:24:11   I'll miss the real estate and I'll miss maybe the battery life, although that hasn't been

01:24:15   as night and day as I had expected, but it would be nice to have a phone I can use one

01:24:19   handed again.

01:24:20   So I don't know.

01:24:21   Marco, what are your thoughts on the iPhone 16?

01:24:24   We don't know a ton about it yet, but you know, if the rumors are true that it's going

01:24:29   to be, you know, adding capture button and giving me the five excellent.

01:24:33   That's great.

01:24:34   I am looking forward to that because the five excellent.

01:24:36   I am super envious of whenever I have a moment to see tips or to use it.

01:24:40   I'm always like, man, I wish I had this in my phone, but I don't wish enough to get the

01:24:43   giant phone.

01:24:44   So again, hopefully, hopefully I get that.

01:24:49   And otherwise I don't really know.

01:24:50   I'm very, this is what happens every year.

01:24:52   I'm very happy with the iPhone I have now.

01:24:55   But you know, I'm sure they'll find a way to maybe want to buy the new, this will have

01:24:59   the realigned cameras on both of them, by the way, on both the 16 and the 16 pro like

01:25:03   the real line cameras for spatial video, because they'll both be able to do it with the, and

01:25:06   the rumor is also that they'll both have the capture button.

01:25:08   It won't be a pro only feature.

01:25:10   So and there are some, I mean, we talked about this a million times when we were talking

01:25:14   about the SOCs, like what are they going to do?

01:25:16   Is there going to be a 18 pro and an 18?

01:25:18   Are they going to reunify?

01:25:19   Are they going to be split?

01:25:21   Is there going to be a one that's like last year's model, but with GPU things that we

01:25:25   don't know what they were going to do with the SOCs, but it seems like from the physical

01:25:28   feature sets, they're both going to have the aligned cameras and they're both going to

01:25:31   have the capture button.

01:25:32   I still, at this early stage, I still feel like the capture button is kind of like the

01:25:35   solid state volume buttons and it's the type of thing that we could be hearing plans from

01:25:40   back in time.

01:25:41   And really that decision was reversed and we won't know about it until the next round

01:25:44   of rumors comes out.

01:25:45   You know what I mean?

01:25:46   And maybe there just won't be a capture button and we'll wait till next year.

01:25:48   But from what I've heard, it sounds like the 16 line will be more unified and coherent

01:25:53   than the 15 one was, but we'll see.

01:25:56   It's a long ways off.

01:25:57   You know, the iPhone is, especially with no rumors about anything radical, it's just like,

01:26:03   oh, it's a year where they're consolidating gains from the previous phones and you know,

01:26:08   it's not, every year the iPhone is good.

01:26:10   I don't think there's any chance of it being terrible, but I don't think there's much chance

01:26:13   either of it being something like an iPhone 10 type of revelation.

01:26:16   Yeah, yeah.

01:26:17   Actually, and I'm glad you brought up the spatial video thing, Jon, because that I think

01:26:22   would be a huge motivator.

01:26:23   If it can take spatial video better than 1080p 30, which is very restrictive.

01:26:29   Yeah, that might be a differentiator on the pro.

01:26:31   Like they'll both have the aligned cameras for spatial video and the rumor is that the

01:26:36   ultra wide that is aligned with it is going to be 48 megapixel and maybe only on the pro

01:26:40   you'll get, you know, better frame rates, better resolution, whatever.

01:26:43   And look, I know this decision's already been made 15 years ago, but if you have to raise

01:26:48   either the frame rate or the resolution and you can't do both, give me the frame rate,

01:26:52   please.

01:26:53   I think the GPS is tough.

01:26:56   I think with the vision pro, I think the resolution may have more bang for the buck because it's

01:27:00   so big in your fields of vision.

01:27:01   You know what I mean?

01:27:03   I'm not allowed to tell you whether I know what you mean.

01:27:05   Uh, anyway, I guess, I mean, Casey and Gruber discussed it with like, it's not as big as

01:27:10   panoramas.

01:27:11   Panoramas is where it suffers the most according to Gruber, but the spatial video is apparently

01:27:14   smaller, but still it's pretty big.

01:27:17   I definitely can't tell you any of that.

01:27:18   However, I can tell you, I really want more resolution out of my cameras now.

01:27:22   More frame rate, do you mean?

01:27:23   Both.

01:27:24   Well, I would suggest for panoramas, you would probably want a lot of resolution.

01:27:29   Yeah.

01:27:30   Like one of the things that I am really looking forward to in the vision pro, Merlin introduced

01:27:35   me to this, this poly cam app where it basically, it's one of these apps that uses like the

01:27:41   LIDAR and the cameras and everything and you can, you can make like a 3d, you can 3d capture

01:27:45   and make a floor plan or a whole like 3d map of a room.

01:27:50   As long as your room is not filled with junk.

01:27:52   I know from experience.

01:27:53   Right.

01:27:54   Yeah.

01:27:55   But you know, but like that's, that's a really cool thing.

01:27:56   I'm looking forward to just like, I don't know if you can even do this yet on vision

01:28:00   pro, but I'm sure it will come fairly soon if you can't like whatever standard, you know,

01:28:05   usdz scene formats that these kinds of things can output.

01:28:08   I want to be able to capture a place with my iPhone using something like poly cam and

01:28:14   then be able to like be in it in the vision pro at a later time.

01:28:18   Like, Oh, what was it like to be, you know, in my, in my room in this one apartment that

01:28:22   I captured, you know, and then I don't live there anymore.

01:28:24   Like that kind of thing.

01:28:25   Like that, that would be so cool to me.

01:28:27   What, you know, what was like on this vacation?

01:28:28   What was our hotel room like, uh, you know, what was my kid's room like when he was this

01:28:32   age?

01:28:33   I would love to be able to capture that kind of stuff and then kind of just experience

01:28:37   it in the vision pro.

01:28:39   And I think one thing that you will probably, um, w w want if we see that is the most resolution

01:28:47   possible on those captures because what you're, what you are seeing in the vision pro, the,

01:28:53   the field of view it is simulating is massive compared to a, you know, a phone or a computer

01:28:59   screen.

01:29:00   So the pictures that we take today on our, on our, you know, little iPhone camera sensors

01:29:04   or whatever, you know, a single picture.

01:29:06   Yeah, that looks great on your phone.

01:29:08   If you're lucky, it might look okay on your laptop screen, but when you put it onto like

01:29:13   a 50 foot tall virtual screen or something, that's a different experience.

01:29:17   That's also when people, uh, complain that I'm nitpicking when I said, well, iPhone photos

01:29:21   are fine unless you're picks a quote unquote pixel peeping.

01:29:24   Well guess what?

01:29:25   Everyone inside of vision pro is pixel peeping.

01:29:27   Everything is so much bigger.

01:29:28   It's going to be the side of a, of a billboard.

01:29:31   And suddenly you see, I mean, we talked about last time with the picture of you, uh, towing

01:29:35   your car on the beach and what a mess it made of your face because it was low light.

01:29:39   Yeah.

01:29:40   That's not, you're not going to need to pixel peep to see that when it's 50 feet tall in

01:29:43   front of you.

01:29:44   Yeah.

01:29:45   So I think the, the rise of these, you know, headsets, whether it's division pro or the

01:29:51   quest series or whatever, like the rise of these headsets, I think is going to increase

01:29:55   the demand for much higher resolution phone cameras basically that can actually capture

01:30:02   a lot more detail of our surroundings and our experiences that we go through in life.

01:30:07   And you know, and, and maybe even, you know, big cameras might have a small resurgence

01:30:11   because there are so much higher resolution, but I think it ultimately like it has to go

01:30:14   in the phones.

01:30:15   Like this has to be, and maybe they'll just do it with, with a bunch of, you know, combination

01:30:21   capture, like, okay, we'll take this.

01:30:22   Yeah.

01:30:23   That's a big, big, big cameras do that.

01:30:25   Speaking of big cameras, the cameras with huge sensors with huge, like big mirrorless

01:30:29   cameras with like 60 megapixel sensors also have a mode where they will take 75 pictures

01:30:33   and stitch them together for massive resolution.

01:30:35   And the phones should, I mean, that's what panorama is.

01:30:37   It's taking a bunch of captures and stitching them together.

01:30:40   Uh, that, that kind of technology.

01:30:43   Like you're not, you can't just keep adding megapixels.

01:30:44   It's not going to work, especially with the phone.

01:30:46   But what you can do is get more and more intelligent modes of taking a whole bunch of 48 megapixel

01:30:51   captures and weaving them together into something that looks better and better inside vision

01:30:55   pro.

01:30:56   Yeah.

01:30:57   And you know, talking about like, you know, as, as the vision pro market very slowly grows

01:31:00   over time, that will give the iPhone a chance to have its cameras grow too.

01:31:05   Because if the vision pro takes off, um, and, and if it, if it sticks around for the long

01:31:11   haul and becomes something that, that a lot of us really want and enjoy, you're going

01:31:14   to want the highest resolution captures possible.

01:31:17   And current phone stuff, again, it looks great on the phone.

01:31:20   Um, but when you blow it up, like it doesn't, most phone pictures don't even look that good

01:31:24   on my pro display XDR.

01:31:26   And that is in the scale of what the vision pro is giving us.

01:31:30   The XDR is like a relatively tiny app window for the vision pro.

01:31:35   Uh, so you know, it's, it's a very different scale that we're talking about of experiencing

01:31:40   our media and there's going to be just demand for infinitely higher resolution.

01:31:45   That's why, uh, as a consumption device is another thing in its favor because in the

01:31:50   beginning, uh, you know, professional companies that can take very expensive, huge cameras

01:31:55   and actually capture massive resolution.

01:31:58   They're the only, that's the only content that's going to be available that can truly

01:32:01   take advantage of the, you know, the vision pro with all the resolution that's available

01:32:06   as you turn your head around and regular people won't be able to make that certainly not with

01:32:10   their iPhones.

01:32:11   And most people aren't going to buy like the weird 360 camera rigs that stitch together

01:32:14   these high megapixel images, but some companies will be able to like Apple and other companies

01:32:19   who can essentially ship an app that is the equivalent of the single app ebook.

01:32:23   Remember those days on the, on the, right.

01:32:26   It's just like, what is this?

01:32:27   It's an app that just shows you a bunch of places, but we captured them with our camera

01:32:30   equipment that costs as much as your house.

01:32:31   Yeah, it's 60 gigs.

01:32:33   You can't capture this, but we captured it and it looks amazing.

01:32:37   You're just going to want to sit here and listen to podcasts and Marco's app.

01:32:42   Maybe I should do that.

01:32:43   Maybe that, maybe that's my app.

01:32:44   Maybe it's like I create an immersive experience that I, you know, I like film some mountains

01:32:48   somewhere with some crazy camera.

01:32:50   It gives you an excuse to buy another $200,000 worth of a 3d video capture equipment and

01:32:56   then go on top of a mountain.

01:32:57   I definitely have not recently purchased a very high resolution camera.

01:33:01   Oh gosh.

01:33:02   All right.

01:33:03   After show, um, Apple watch 10.

01:33:05   I'm excited to see, I got to imagine they're going to make this look different and I'm

01:33:09   excited to see what that looks like.

01:33:11   I mean, some people keep saying with the Roman numeral X 10, right?

01:33:15   It's like, Oh, it's, that'll be like the iPhone 10 or Mac OS 10.

01:33:17   It'll be the time they changed the form factor, but what if they're not ready to change the

01:33:20   form factor?

01:33:21   Then it's just going to be Apple watch 10 with the one and a zero and we'll, we'll worry

01:33:25   about it next year.

01:33:26   Like this would be a convenient time, but sometimes convenient times don't always line

01:33:29   up.

01:33:30   I hope it is a new form factor.

01:33:32   It is a reasonable time for it to be one, but there's no, there's no like pressing need.

01:33:37   Like they have to do it or whatever.

01:33:38   And if it doesn't line up, it doesn't line up.

01:33:40   Hey, look, look what they did with the iPhone.

01:33:41   They were ready early.

01:33:42   And so they just skipped nine.

01:33:44   Yeah.

01:33:45   I mean, I guess that's true, but I, I don't know.

01:33:48   I just have a gut feeling that's going to happen.

01:33:50   It'd be cool.

01:33:51   It'll be cool if they use the X too.

01:33:53   I think we're ready for it.

01:33:55   And I'm honestly like, I'm a little scared because you know, the Apple watch is what

01:34:00   I wear most days and I'm a huge, you know, watch snob.

01:34:05   And I I'm currently like, I'm happy with the Apple watch.

01:34:08   I don't super love it.

01:34:09   I don't super hate anything about it.

01:34:11   I'm, I'm, we're in a nice stable place and I, I'm a little worried if they're going to

01:34:15   like take some big moves, I'm a little worried.

01:34:18   They might, you know, mess some stuff up.

01:34:20   Like I gotta say, I still don't love watchOS 10.

01:34:23   But that's a story for another day, I guess.

01:34:26   So you know, we'll see what they do with the hardware.

01:34:29   So I'm a little nervous, but their track record with the Apple watch hardware is really good

01:34:35   with the exception of the first one just being so darn slow and everything.

01:34:39   That wasn't really their fault.

01:34:40   Recent generations of the Apple watch hardware have really just been amazing.

01:34:44   It's been a little boring with the exception of the ultra, which was a huge hit.

01:34:48   But like, you know, the regular series Apple watch, it doesn't change much in recent years,

01:34:53   but every year brings some kind of like little incremental changes that over time add up.

01:34:57   And so the recent Apple watches are great.

01:35:00   But as I said, last time this came up, like I would like to see some refreshing and variety

01:35:06   happen in the Apple watch line of just cause it is still jewelry.

01:35:09   So you know, some, some updates and refreshing over time are, are nice thing to have.

01:35:13   Uh, I'm looking forward to that.

01:35:15   The whole strap attachment rumor things has me a little nervous.

01:35:19   But again, you look at Apple's track record on making straps, they're amazing.

01:35:23   Like Apple has the best watch straps in the watch industry by a huge margin, generally

01:35:30   speaking.

01:35:31   Like, yeah, one or two nice ones from other vendors exist, but like Apple watch straps

01:35:35   on the whole.

01:35:37   And I'm really mostly or only talking about the ones by Apple, not by third parties, which

01:35:42   are largely garbage.

01:35:44   But Apple's own Apple watch straps not only are amazing today, but have been amazing for

01:35:52   the entire run of the Apple watch.

01:35:54   Like even the very first ones they launched with the very first Apple watch, those straps

01:35:59   were all amazing.

01:36:00   Like they were super good straps.

01:36:02   So they're, they're really good at this.

01:36:04   And I, if they're going to redo the strap mechanism, I trust that they're probably going

01:36:11   to come out with some really nice straps to go with it too.

01:36:14   Uh, so I'm looking forward to this rumor of this, you know, big Apple watch revamp.

01:36:19   I think it's time and I trust that they will probably do a really good job with it.

01:36:24   Yeah.

01:36:25   I feel like this, this strap rumor is the one that I'm most willing to believe that

01:36:28   I couldn't get that one done.

01:36:29   Like I'm, you know, if I had to rank them like a new shape redesign for 10 is higher

01:36:34   rank for me than new shape and also new strap because our previous session, maybe they couldn't

01:36:39   figure out something better.

01:36:40   And so it goes in the back burner for a few more years or whatever.

01:36:43   But uh, having them both would be great.

01:36:44   That would really be an Apple watch 10 new design, new strap, new everything.

01:36:48   It would be very much like the iPhone 10.

01:36:50   Well, but the thing is like, you know, according to the rumor that like one of the reasons

01:36:54   they were looking at a new strap attachment mechanism is because the current one takes

01:36:57   up a lot of space in the case, which is true.

01:37:00   It might be that in order to get a new case shape design, they had to change the strap

01:37:05   mechanism to get that extra space out.

01:37:07   If they, if they tied them together, then yeah, then either both of them pushed off

01:37:10   from either one.

01:37:11   But it's so hard to tell from these rumors because you know, see previous Apple watch

01:37:15   rumors, they have not been entirely reliable about form factor changes.

01:37:18   No, they've been comically unreliable.

01:37:20   But you know, if you think about what Apple could do with more interior space of an Apple

01:37:25   watch, the answer is very obvious.

01:37:27   Add more battery and therefore give the watch more capabilities and make it, you know, raise

01:37:31   the specs basically and or make it thinner.

01:37:34   Both of which would be wonderfully welcome for the Apple watch.

01:37:37   I would actually say that they've come far enough in the, in the thinness department

01:37:42   in recent minor revisions.

01:37:43   I actually don't think it needs to be that much thinner.

01:37:46   I'm happy with it where it is a little bit thinner would be like a little more elegant,

01:37:51   but it doesn't, it doesn't, it's not screaming for being thinner, but it is screaming for

01:37:54   resources.

01:37:55   I think you still have to fight the thinness one because I think we would all agree an

01:37:59   Apple watch that's one quarter of the thickness could be amazing.

01:38:02   That opens up a whole new design possibilities, like a really thin one, but we know we just

01:38:06   can't do that with current technology.

01:38:08   I feel like we need to keep much more so than the phone because it's not something that

01:38:12   you hold in your hand.

01:38:13   Thin watches exist and are at a good look and are cool and Apple should pursue that.

01:38:19   It is now, it is still thicker than if you said Apple, we have a magic battery that can

01:38:24   be any size and give you the same amount of energy.

01:38:26   They wouldn't choose to make it this big.

01:38:27   It is thicker than Apple would choose to design.

01:38:29   It's thicker than anyone would choose to design.

01:38:31   We just know it has to be that big.

01:38:32   So I get what you're saying, that it's not so big that it's a impediment, but watches

01:38:36   unlike phones as we know them today can tolerate being a lot thinner than these things are.

01:38:42   Yes, but it doesn't look like a thick watch.

01:38:46   It looks like a kind of regular range of a watch thickness.

01:38:50   It doesn't need it.

01:38:51   You're right that it would be nice if it's thinner, but like if they're going to gain

01:38:55   a decent chunk of internal volume to use for something like to spend somehow.

01:38:58   Oh yeah.

01:38:59   I'm not saying this year, I'm saying like 20 years from now, Apple shouldn't stop pursuing

01:39:03   thinness because we're never going to get to the 20 years from now really thin watch

01:39:06   if they don't continue to pursue it.

01:39:08   And the flip side of that is there is obviously the style and the watch industry of like,

01:39:12   it is ridiculously thick because that is the style.

01:39:14   Well that's a style.

01:39:16   It's not universal.

01:39:17   Well I mean the Ultra, the Ultra fulfills that, but there are very thin watches and

01:39:21   there are also very thick ones and the thick ones are not thick because they need to be

01:39:24   that thick.

01:39:25   It is a style and I feel like the Ultra, that's where the Ultra lives right now and I'm happy

01:39:28   with that one, but for the regular watch, I would love to see it be thinner in a decade

01:39:31   rather than the same size.

01:39:33   Ultimately what I want to see for the watch is anything that can raise its limits.

01:39:39   It is such a, the entire watch software platform is so extremely limited by its need to conserve

01:39:48   power very aggressively in order to have useful battery life.

01:39:53   And if they can give it 20% more battery space, whatever it would be, if that would then allow

01:39:59   them to let the watch loose a little bit more with its own resource usage, that opens up

01:40:05   much more software potential, that opens up potentially more responsiveness for the user,

01:40:11   more on-device features.

01:40:14   It makes the entire watch experience potentially much better if they can lift some of those

01:40:19   limits.

01:40:20   So that could pay off in a much bigger way than making it a millimeter thinner in my

01:40:24   opinion.

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01:42:17   [Music]

01:42:22   AirPods 4.

01:42:23   I don't have too much to say about this.

01:42:25   We have in the show notes that they're supposed to be getting a new design, an updated case,

01:42:31   and potentially even active noise cancellation, which I think would be great for non-AirPods

01:42:35   Pro things.

01:42:36   Apparently, the case will have speakers for Find My Alerts.

01:42:39   It'll have USB-C, obviously.

01:42:41   And then apparently a higher-end version of the AirPods 4, not the Pro, but the AirPods

01:42:46   4 will have ANC, like I said.

01:42:48   AirPods 4 Plus.

01:42:49   Yeah, right.

01:42:50   Or 4 Max.

01:42:53   I think AirPods 4, that sounds good.

01:42:56   I don't have any particularly strong thoughts about this.

01:42:58   I think I'll probably stick with the AirPods Pro forever more, because they are so freaking

01:43:03   good.

01:43:05   But I think more of that tech flowing downhill to regular stuff, I'm here for it.

01:43:11   Sounds good to me.

01:43:12   2024 is the year of stuff for me.

01:43:14   OLED iPads that no one's really interested in, AirPods 4 that no one's really interested

01:43:17   in, but I am, and it's also my iPhone year.

01:43:20   I'm a little bit confused by the AirPods 4 rumor with there being two versions, one of

01:43:23   which has noise canceling or whatever.

01:43:25   Only confused because they haven't come right out and said, "Oh, by the way, the one that

01:43:28   has noise canceling will be shoved into your ear canal," which is not what I want.

01:43:33   The reason I use AirPods 3 is I don't want things shoved into my ear canal.

01:43:36   If they have two versions of the AirPods 4, surely one of them will not be shoved into

01:43:41   my ear canal.

01:43:42   I don't know what the word is for this that I keep saying.

01:43:43   But anyway, you know what I mean.

01:43:44   The little soft squishy tips that go into the hole in your ear.

01:43:47   I don't want that.

01:43:49   So if there are two of them, one of them has got to be not like that.

01:43:52   But are they also trying to say that the other AirPods 4 will also not go in your ear but

01:43:57   have noise canceling?

01:43:58   You could do noise canceling, like do the same thing, but not be shoved into your ear

01:44:03   canal, but it's not going to work as well at all, right?

01:44:06   For many, many reasons.

01:44:08   But the rumors are still vague.

01:44:10   So if there are new AirPods, I will probably get them unless both of them go into your

01:44:17   ear canals, in which case I'll just ride these out.

01:44:19   And I'm willing to believe that I can be converted.

01:44:21   If Apple just stops selling the ones that don't go into your canals, I'll just have

01:44:24   to get used to it.

01:44:25   I'll probably survive.

01:44:27   But it's not what I prefer.

01:44:29   My wife has AirPods Pro now.

01:44:30   She's had two pairs of them.

01:44:32   And I've tried them, and I know what they're like.

01:44:34   And it's not like I can't do it.

01:44:36   I just don't prefer it.

01:44:37   I could get used to it if I had to.

01:44:39   And I'm sure if I did get used to it, I'd be like, "Wow, noise canceling is great.

01:44:42   Isn't this wonderful?"

01:44:43   Yeah, all the things everyone else already knows.

01:44:44   I just still prefer the other ones.

01:44:46   So I'm hoping the AirPods 4 with two different models, one or both of them still don't go

01:44:50   into your ear canal.

01:44:51   And that'll be the one for me as I watch my OLED iPad.

01:44:54   It's a big year for Jon.

01:44:57   Yeah, all the boring products.

01:45:00   AirPods Max 2 potentially?

01:45:02   Question mark time.

01:45:06   I've never tried the AirPods Max, so I don't have any thoughts on this other than--

01:45:10   I mean, do they make a USB-C model?

01:45:13   Do they actually revise it so they're changed in some way?

01:45:16   Do they fix the condensation issue for people with sweaty ears?

01:45:19   Do they make them more comfortable?

01:45:21   I find them-- granted, I've only worn them in Apple stores or whatever, but I do not

01:45:25   find them comfortable.

01:45:26   The top of it hurts the top of my head with that stupid mesh thing.

01:45:29   It's not what I prefer.

01:45:30   Yeah, the AirPods Max are really great in certain ways, but they could really use it

01:45:36   for revision.

01:45:37   They could really use a version 2 tackling of this problem.

01:45:40   They definitely need to get rid of lightning, of course.

01:45:43   We know that.

01:45:44   They need the updated processor to have all the newest features of the AirPods Pro, especially

01:45:48   at their price.

01:45:50   And what I would hope is-- what Jon was alluding to-- I would hope they would address comfort

01:45:55   a little bit better.

01:45:56   The current ones, as talked about many times in the show, they're very heavy because they

01:46:01   use a ton of metal and almost no plastic anywhere in them.

01:46:04   And that makes it very difficult to achieve good comfort with headphones.

01:46:08   You can have comfortable, heavy headphones, but you probably won't.

01:46:12   It makes it much harder.

01:46:14   You really need to spread-- what you'd have to do with heavy headphones, you have to spread

01:46:17   the weight over a large area, and that looks clunky.

01:46:19   And it also means there's more crap in contact with your head, which is hotter and sweatier.

01:46:24   Right.

01:46:25   And so it is much easier to make comfortable headphones when they are lightweight, and

01:46:29   it is much easier to make lightweight headphones when they use a lot less steel and aluminum

01:46:32   than Apple used on theirs.

01:46:35   So generally, that means plastic.

01:46:38   That's why when you look at the other-- if you look at the competitors to the AirPods

01:46:41   Max, the main competitors are the Sony and Bose noise-canceling headphones, both of which

01:46:46   use large amounts of plastic in their construction.

01:46:49   In part, yes, you could say, oh, because it's cheaper.

01:46:51   No, the real reason is because it's better for headphones to be plastic because it's

01:46:55   much lighter, and that makes them much more comfortable.

01:46:58   Also, of course, the AirPods Max have that terrible case.

01:47:02   They don't have a power button.

01:47:04   There's all sorts of little other things that I think a revision to this product would be

01:47:08   very needed and very welcome.

01:47:10   Because the other thing about the AirPods Max is that they sound incredible.

01:47:15   They sound really good.

01:47:17   Their noise cancellation is also really good.

01:47:20   They compete well on those factors.

01:47:23   It's just all the physical design factors that they really need a lot of help with.

01:47:27   So I hope Apple's willing and able to do the kind of update that the product deserves.

01:47:32   Because again, they sound so good that it's kind of a shame right now that they are held

01:47:39   back in these other factors to a lot of people.

01:47:42   Because sound-wise, they're amazing.

01:47:43   Can we try to speed-run these last four?

01:47:46   Especially since we're in the question marks here.

01:47:49   HomePod, don't care.

01:47:50   Apple TV, yes please.

01:47:51   LLM, Howard Stuff, and Apple OSes, sure, why not?

01:47:55   Red loading in the EU, we'll see what happens.

01:47:57   Done.

01:47:58   A little bit faster than I expected.

01:48:01   For the HomePod and Apple TV, I think that's just a collective shrug.

01:48:05   I mostly agree with what Casey said.

01:48:07   But the LLM stuff and Apple OSes, this probably should have been hoisted up farther because

01:48:11   2024 could be the year that Apple rolls out some of the stuff that it's doing.

01:48:16   We mentioned at the top of follow-up, they are doing LLM stuff.

01:48:18   We know they're doing it.

01:48:20   Is this the year some of it comes out?

01:48:21   We all hope so because Siri's crappy and we think the LLM stuff could make it better.

01:48:25   For all the problems with the LLM stuff, anything is better than current Siri.

01:48:31   Really constrain it.

01:48:32   Have it only help out in certain scenarios.

01:48:35   We just want it to work and be smarter than it is.

01:48:38   We're so tolerant of Siri's disloyalty, I don't know, betrayal, non-functionality, that

01:48:47   all of the problems that we know are inherent with LLM's will still not be as bad as what

01:48:51   Siri does.

01:48:52   So I really hope that this is the year.

01:48:55   It doesn't have to be just Siri.

01:48:56   That's why I say LLM powered stuff and Apple OSes.

01:48:58   There's tons of stuff they could do with it.

01:49:00   It could help out with AutoCorrect.

01:49:01   It could try to summarize things for you.

01:49:04   And I say on all Apple OSes, they could roll it out on the Mac, on the iPad.

01:49:08   I'm ready for Apple to roll out something interesting using LLM technology on all of

01:49:14   its platforms, even if it's a small thing.

01:49:16   Because we know that technology has uses.

01:49:19   It doesn't solve the world's problems.

01:49:22   It's not a quote unquote AI.

01:49:24   It can't even do everything that Siri can do.

01:49:26   It's not even ready to step into those shoes.

01:49:29   But can it help out a little with AutoCorrect or search in Photos?

01:49:32   Yes, I think it can do that.

01:49:33   And so whatever those little areas are, especially again for something like Photos, they could

01:49:38   roll that out across all their platforms that Photos exists on.

01:49:41   And it wouldn't replace the Photos app.

01:49:43   It would just be an existing feature of the Photos app, like search, that suddenly works

01:49:47   a little bit better than it used to, thanks to LLM technology that runs locally on your

01:49:51   Mac.

01:49:52   That's what I'm looking forward to.

01:49:53   And then the sideloading and the EU stuff.

01:49:56   If nothing comes of that, then we just whatever.

01:49:58   But if something comes from it, it could be potentially very interesting, because we've

01:50:01   speculated about what would happen if there was ever sideloading the iPhone.

01:50:04   And actually seeing it happen, even if it's not in our country, that's time to get some

01:50:08   popcorn.

01:50:09   And honestly, what's interesting about the sideloading is I bet it's not going to be

01:50:16   that big of a deal.

01:50:17   It'll be a big deal for podcasts and the press and legal.

01:50:20   It'll be a big deal for that, for talking about it.

01:50:22   But the actual market for who's going to actually do it, I think it's going to be much like

01:50:29   the whole Netherlands dating app thing.

01:50:31   But I was thinking of that scenario, and I think there's a big difference between the

01:50:34   dating app scenario where it's like, well, you just have to charge money.

01:50:37   Apple will just charge you anyway.

01:50:38   I think, again, I don't know the details, but I think this is a scenario where once

01:50:44   the sideloading door is open, like granted, you have to go through it the way Apple says

01:50:48   you have to, but I don't think Apple can extract any money from sideloading.

01:50:52   So it's not going to be like the Netherlands dating app.

01:50:54   It's going to be constrained by what Apple does, like whatever hoops they make you jump

01:50:58   through.

01:50:59   But once you've jumped through those hoops, Apple doesn't get a cut of anything.

01:51:03   It's all sidestepping Apple entirely.

01:51:06   If that's not true, then you're right.

01:51:07   It's just going to be like the Netherlands dating app.

01:51:09   Do we know that?

01:51:10   Do we know whether that's true?

01:51:11   Like whether they're allowed to charge a commission or whatever?

01:51:13   I don't think so.

01:51:14   We'll see.

01:51:15   I don't know the details, but I would imagine that the whole point of this is sideloading

01:51:19   is different than using a different payment method when you're selling an app through

01:51:22   Apple's own app store.

01:51:23   This is like, no, I'm not even using Apple's own app store.

01:51:25   The whole point of this is people want to have their own app stores, right?

01:51:28   Which by the way, as a developer, I really don't want this to happen.

01:51:31   I know.

01:51:32   How can having your own app store make any sense if Apple's allowed to take a cut?

01:51:34   So I have to think that once you jump through whatever hurdles that Apple is going to surely

01:51:39   put in your path to sideload anything, that Apple is out of that thing.

01:51:43   And if that is true, the reason this is interesting is let's see what happens when the iPhone

01:51:49   is open to all the very hungry, sometimes unscrupulous, but sometimes just plain like

01:51:56   people who are boxed out of the iPhone before.

01:51:59   Is there some market need that Apple has not been addressing that will quickly be addressed

01:52:03   besides porn, right?

01:52:06   But even if it's just porn, like even if it's just a giant flood of porn coming in the sideloading

01:52:11   door on the iPhone, that'll still be interesting because we haven't seen this platform exposed

01:52:17   to the actual market.

01:52:20   It's always been mediated through Apple severely.

01:52:22   So we don't actually know what's out there and what might come in through the sideloading

01:52:25   door.

01:52:26   I'm kind of glad it would be happening in the EU and not here in case bad things happen.

01:52:30   But I'm actually interested in something coming of that.

01:52:34   And who knows, with these things, you don't know how long they're going to wind on or

01:52:37   whether Apple thinks they're already in compliance and all sorts of other shenanigans.

01:52:41   So it's hard to make any hard and fast predictions.

01:52:43   But when I was thinking about this, I immediately thought of like, oh, Apple's just going to

01:52:46   take their cut.

01:52:47   And I'm like, wait a second, what if they can't?

01:52:48   What if that's the whole point of this thing, that everyone's going to be allowed to have

01:52:51   an app store?

01:52:52   Like maybe Steam will be on there or the Epic App Store.

01:52:55   Maybe like what will gaming be like on the iPad if you don't have to go through Apple

01:52:59   to launch your game?

01:53:00   Maybe that's the only way that Apple actually gets a hold in AAA gaming instead of just

01:53:05   their existing mobile gaming is through the side door of the Steam store and Epic Game

01:53:11   Store sideloaded for EU people only.

01:53:15   My doomsday scenario that I really don't want to happen is if there's no restrictions for

01:53:21   sideloaded stuff and if you can have sideloaded app stores, then I'm afraid that some major

01:53:28   must-have app provider like Facebook would say, you know what, Instagram, which we know

01:53:34   you're all going to install, is no longer on the app store.

01:53:38   You have to download the Facebook app store and let it like root your phone basically.

01:53:46   And you know, have to only go through them.

01:53:48   They have no more protections from Apple's rules and they only have technical protections,

01:53:52   which are much weaker than technical and policy protections.

01:53:55   And then me as a developer, do I have to put my stuff in the Facebook store?

01:53:58   Like it's just--

01:53:59   - Only if you want to sell it to people in the EU.

01:54:01   That's the whole thing about this being limited.

01:54:02   - I know, but so I hope that outcome doesn't happen and what will help keep that from happening

01:54:10   is if this stays as small as possible.

01:54:13   And maybe it'll just be like, you know, I'm sure Apple will, if they do this, I'm sure

01:54:19   they're going to do it in the most reluctant way possible.

01:54:23   They're going to only do the bare minimum to satisfy whatever regulation is forcing it.

01:54:29   They are going to challenge it at every step.

01:54:32   They might, as you said, they might say we're already in compliance with some like little

01:54:36   piddly crap and they're still taking a 27% commission or whatever else.

01:54:40   And then the EU might like, you know, sue them or whatever.

01:54:42   They have to work through all that.

01:54:44   So this could be a huge fight for a long time.

01:54:48   I don't for a second believe that Apple is going to give any ground that they are not

01:54:53   forced to give.

01:54:55   So for instance, I would not expect that they would allow sideloading anywhere else besides

01:55:00   the EU.

01:55:01   Like if they don't have to, they won't do it.

01:55:03   And whatever the EU mandate is for sideloading, they're going to do the bare minimum to qualify

01:55:10   for that and they're going to make it as hostile as possible for people to actually do it to

01:55:15   ensure no one does it.

01:55:17   Whether it's the customer side of like, you know, scary warnings or whether it's the legal

01:55:21   developer side of you got to give us 27% or both, they're going to make it so it's really

01:55:26   unpleasant for everybody.

01:55:28   And there is that Google case that they lost against Epic that actually is in the US.

01:55:32   So there are other legal precedents potentially rumbling towards Apple, maybe not next year,

01:55:38   but maybe the year after that.

01:55:39   So this being confined to the EU for now does not mean it's going to be that way forever.

01:55:45   Yeah.

01:55:46   So I'm hoping that sideloading on iOS ends up being as much of a nothing burger as sideloading

01:55:51   on Android has been.

01:55:52   And, you know, yeah, maybe we'll get a flood of porn.

01:55:54   Maybe we'll get like, we can probably get emulators maybe.

01:55:56   Well, but the sideloading on Android has been not a big deal, partially for the reasons

01:56:02   that Google just lost that case.

01:56:04   Right.

01:56:05   True.

01:56:06   It wasn't naturally that way.

01:56:07   Google sort of put its thumb on the scale to ensure that, oh, you can sideload, but

01:56:11   you really don't want to do that, do you?

01:56:13   That's why they lost that case.

01:56:14   So things may change in the future.

01:56:17   And as for the HomePod, I finally reached Casey level.

01:56:22   Don't care.

01:56:23   There it is.

01:56:24   I'm slowly replacing my HomePods with Sonos gear and I am much happier for it.

01:56:29   They work a lot better.

01:56:31   The HomePod is smaller and looks nicer and in some situations sounds better, but it has

01:56:39   broken my heart too many times.

01:56:41   The Sonos gear is really reliable.

01:56:45   The Alexa assistant on it is rock solid, fast and reliable.

01:56:50   I hadn't used Alexa in a while because I threw away my last Echo, the ball one that kept

01:56:54   dying and being weird.

01:56:56   And Amazon's own devices have ratcheted up the annoyance level over time so much.

01:57:02   It's like, by the way, did you know I can annoy you in new and interesting ways if you

01:57:05   say this?

01:57:07   Most of that seems to be absent on the Sonos version of it.

01:57:09   It seems to be like a more limited version of Alexa, which in those ways I think is a

01:57:13   feature on a bug.

01:57:16   I have been extremely impressed with the Alexa assistant's ability to answer general knowledge

01:57:22   questions.

01:57:23   Questions that I think are somewhat difficult for a voice assistant to answer.

01:57:30   One of the recent things was from Adventure Time, we couldn't remember Marceline's dad's

01:57:34   name.

01:57:35   And so I asked it from across the room, "What is the name of Marceline the Vampire Queen's

01:57:41   father?"

01:57:42   And it got it.

01:57:43   It didn't waffle, it didn't say, "Well, on the web I found this thing that might be it."

01:57:47   No, it just gave me the answer.

01:57:48   It was directly correct.

01:57:50   The other day I asked something like, "What was the outcome?"

01:57:55   My son was asking about Michael Jackson because one of his songs was on.

01:57:58   It was asking like, "How did he die?"

01:58:01   And we mentioned, "Oh, well, he had this drug thing and his doctor was put on trial."

01:58:04   And I asked, first of all, "How old was Michael Jackson when he died?"

01:58:08   It got that instantly.

01:58:09   It gave me the straight answer, perfect.

01:58:12   And then as Adam was asking about what happened with his death, I asked something along the

01:58:16   lines of, "What was the outcome of the trial for Michael Jackson's doctor?"

01:58:23   That's a pretty tricky question for it to parse.

01:58:26   It got it.

01:58:27   It was perfect.

01:58:29   And I was thinking, "Man, asking Siri this kind of question?

01:58:34   Siri can't even reliably play music when I ask it to play music."

01:58:38   Whereas Alexa, for all of its faults of, "By the way, did you know?"

01:58:43   It as a voice assistant is really solid.

01:58:46   It is fast.

01:58:47   It is reliable.

01:58:48   And it is surprisingly good at general knowledge questions.

01:58:50   Not to mention the fact that it kicks butt on timers and all that other stuff, too.

01:58:53   So while it feels kind of gross to like Alexa right now, because I find a lot of the other

01:58:59   stuff they do with it kind of distasteful with their own products, as the voice assistant

01:59:03   on the Sonos devices, I'm fine with it.

01:59:05   I'm totally fine with it.

01:59:07   And AirPlay is so much better on Sonos.

01:59:10   The sound quality is really great.

01:59:12   The sync, the multi-room stuff is rock solid.

01:59:15   I am super happy with the Sonos gear.

01:59:18   So sorry, HomePod.

01:59:20   I gave you lots of chances.

01:59:22   You blew them all.

01:59:23   And I'm done with you.

01:59:24   So this is what you get for using Siri all this time.

01:59:26   I've always been telling you that both Alexa and the Google thing are so much better.

01:59:29   I think Google is the best one.

01:59:31   Alexa is clearly second and Siri is so far distant.

01:59:34   Third is not even funny.

01:59:35   And I still do it.

01:59:37   It's the game we still play.

01:59:38   I still ask all three.

01:59:39   And it's just, we always ask Siri for comic relief.

01:59:41   Let's see what Siri does with this.

01:59:43   And it's always hilarious.

01:59:44   And, you know, Alexa and Google depends on what you're asking.

01:59:47   I think Alexa knowing, having the IMDB database probably helps a lot, but those kinds of specific

01:59:51   questions that it can answer more directly.

01:59:53   But the Google Home, I mean, it's essentially, even if it's all it's doing, is essentially

01:59:57   running the Google search and reading you that aforementioned top summary thing that

02:00:01   is often close to being the answer.

02:00:04   Although as both of these things start to get LLM powered, now I start to go, it would

02:00:09   be nice, you know, Amazon thing.

02:00:12   If you told me whether you used LLM to come up with that Michael Jackson age of death,

02:00:16   because I would prefer if you didn't, because I'm sure you can give me a plausible age,

02:00:20   but now I have to go to the Wikipedia page to check what the actual age was.

02:00:23   You know what I mean?

02:00:24   Like, I don't want to not trust it because it's LLM stuff, because LLM can give you a

02:00:28   plausible answer to all sorts of stuff.

02:00:30   But I want to know, is this an answer that comes from, it's not even, I can't even characterize

02:00:36   it.

02:00:37   It's like, in the days before LLM, the only way you could give that answer is by pulling

02:00:39   it off some well-known web page or a database that you have.

02:00:42   But now, LLMs can give you that answer with zero knowledge.

02:00:45   They don't have to know it, and if they do know it, they don't have to give it to you.

02:00:48   They just produce something that is plausible, statistically plausible, and lots of answers

02:00:52   could be statistically plausible, and you as the user are like, oh great, it gave us

02:00:56   the exact age.

02:00:57   The whole point is you didn't know the age.

02:00:58   That's why you asked.

02:00:59   So you have, unless it tells you like two or 97, if it's within the plausible range,

02:01:04   you're going to be like, I guess that's the answer.

02:01:05   And pretty soon, that's not going to be as true as it is today, which is kind of sad.

02:01:10   - I think we are lucky in that I think running LLM inference is still much more expensive

02:01:15   than running like a search index look up.

02:01:18   So like whatever they've already built that didn't use LLMs is probably so much cheaper

02:01:23   to run queries against.

02:01:24   - Yeah, no, if you ask something about like movies or TV or whatever, doing a reasonable

02:01:29   search of the internet movie database and giving you the answer that way with a little

02:01:34   bit of intelligence is so much better than saying we threw a bunch of crap into this

02:01:39   LLM and stuff comes out sometimes.

02:01:41   Isn't that cool?

02:01:42   Just do the database look up.

02:01:44   - All right, thanks to our sponsors this week, Notion and Trade Coffee.

02:01:48   And thanks to our members who support us directly.

02:01:50   You can join us at ATP.fm/join.

02:01:52   And we will talk to you next week.

02:01:56   (upbeat music)

02:01:58   ♪ Now the show is over ♪

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02:02:03   ♪ 'Cause it was accidental ♪

02:02:06   ♪ Oh, it was accidental ♪

02:02:09   ♪ John didn't do any research ♪

02:02:11   ♪ Marco and Casey wouldn't let him ♪

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02:02:58   - Do you do any kind of New Year's resolution

02:03:02   or Cortex-style themes?

02:03:04   - No. - Nope.

02:03:05   - Definitely not.

02:03:06   - Well, I mean, I listen to the show

02:03:07   where they talk about them.

02:03:08   Does that count as something?

02:03:09   - Yeah, right, exactly.

02:03:10   - Yeah, that counts a little bit, yeah.

02:03:12   - I listen and think, boy, how unlike me that they are.

02:03:15   (laughing)

02:03:16   - They're very regimented.

02:03:18   I've often felt like I frequently align with Gray's theme.

02:03:22   So for listeners, if for some reason

02:03:24   you don't listen to Cortex,

02:03:26   the gist of what we're talking about is that

02:03:28   it's a thing Cortex does every year where

02:03:31   rather than a New Year's resolution,

02:03:34   and our friend Merlin has very successfully argued

02:03:38   against New Year's resolutions over time

02:03:40   of being fairly dysfunctional and generally,

02:03:44   you know, generally considered harmful

02:03:46   in the sense that resolutions are usually

02:03:48   setting yourself up to fail pretty effectively

02:03:50   and pretty shortly, and then you just feel bad

02:03:52   about yourself as opposed to what Gray, Mike, and Cortex do

02:03:57   is like more setting a theme for the year

02:04:01   to kind of guide your thinking and work over the year

02:04:05   as opposed to a resolution that's like,

02:04:07   I'm going to, you know, and so as an example,

02:04:10   instead of saying like, I'm gonna lose 20 pounds by June,

02:04:13   you know, like that's a specific goal.

02:04:16   You can call it a resolution, but that's the kind of thing

02:04:18   that's like, it's very easy for that kind of thing to fail.

02:04:22   You also tend to know early on in the year

02:04:24   how much you've failed at it, and you might then

02:04:26   like fall off the wagon and go back to your old habits

02:04:28   or whatever, whereas a theme could be more like health.

02:04:32   Like I'm gonna make this the year of improving my health.

02:04:35   That is something that it's hard to distinctly fail at,

02:04:39   I mean, unless you die, I guess, but like, you know,

02:04:41   like it's hard, sorry, like it's hard to like

02:04:44   outright fail to the point where you're discouraged

02:04:46   from continuing, and it's more like,

02:04:49   I'm going to make decisions throughout the year

02:04:51   thinking of this as a guiding principle.

02:04:54   And so it seems to be much more effective,

02:04:56   and my apologies to the Cortex Podcast

02:04:58   if I have any of this wrong or if I'm mischaracterizing it,

02:05:00   but I think it's the gist of it.

02:05:01   - There's a YouTube video that explains it pretty well.

02:05:03   We can find that for the notes, we'll put it in,

02:05:05   but if not, just search YouTube for Cortex yearly themes.

02:05:08   - Yeah, and I think it's a really nice system.

02:05:11   It's a really nice reframing of this kind of thing

02:05:14   that we do, like getting away from the resolution thing,

02:05:16   'cause again, resolutions are so likely to fail.

02:05:20   - Did you two ever do resolutions?

02:05:23   - I've done 'em here and there, and I usually forget,

02:05:26   like by the second week of January, I even forget what it was.

02:05:28   - Did you forget or you failed them, or like,

02:05:30   or you lose interest, like--

02:05:31   - Both of them.

02:05:32   - Generally both. (laughs)

02:05:34   All three. (laughs)

02:05:36   But yeah, I like the idea of the themes,

02:05:39   and I oftentimes line up with Grey's themes.

02:05:42   - But do you do your own thing?

02:05:43   You like the idea of them, and when you hear Grey's themes,

02:05:45   you're like, oh, that seems like a good idea,

02:05:46   but do you actually ever like say,

02:05:48   this is going to be my theme for the year?

02:05:50   Even if you're saying I'm going to adopt Grey's theme

02:05:52   and I'm going to do that this year too.

02:05:54   - Generally, for the last few years, generally, yes,

02:05:56   I have kind of set a theme, but sometimes I forget

02:06:01   what it is and it might change at like six months in.

02:06:03   - Wow.

02:06:04   - You gotta write it down.

02:06:05   - That's a great theme.

02:06:06   - But generally speaking, like last year,

02:06:09   I kind of had the guiding principle of closing open projects

02:06:14   because my life was full of open projects.

02:06:17   - Yeah, it's not anymore though, right?

02:06:19   - Yeah, I know, it's the problem.

02:06:20   Moving, house renovation, like all that stuff,

02:06:23   it just was so, there was so much going on

02:06:26   and it was very overwhelming.

02:06:28   This year, I'm making it the year of Overcast

02:06:32   because Overcast has really suffered the last couple years

02:06:37   in that I've had all this other life stuff going on.

02:06:39   I have not been able to give it a lot of time.

02:06:41   I actually have turned that around substantially

02:06:44   in the last few months.

02:06:46   I'm giving Overcast way more time in the last few months

02:06:48   and not only am I making good progress on the big rewrite,

02:06:51   but I'm also just much happier.

02:06:53   It had been so long since I really had

02:06:56   a lot of good programming work done,

02:06:58   so I'm much happier doing this now.

02:07:00   So I'm really making this year the year of Overcast.

02:07:03   I'm going to get the rewrite out this year.

02:07:06   It's gonna be a ton of work, there's still a ton to do.

02:07:09   I can't tell you when this year it's coming out

02:07:11   because I am no better at estimating

02:07:14   software timing than anyone else.

02:07:15   - That's the thing about themes.

02:07:17   The theme doesn't say that it's the year

02:07:19   I'm going to ship the new version of Overcast.

02:07:21   It just says the year of Overcast

02:07:22   and I would say, based on listening

02:07:23   to all the theme episodes over the years,

02:07:25   that that's probably a little bit too specific for a theme,

02:07:28   but still, it not being so specific to say

02:07:30   the year I launch the rewrite of Overcast,

02:07:33   it is more general than that,

02:07:34   but I bet you could go one level more general

02:07:36   if you needed to, but since you're not,

02:07:38   this is not an official Cortex brand theme,

02:07:40   this is just a Marcos adoption.

02:07:41   - This is a knockoff theme.

02:07:43   - Now you have recorded it in a place.

02:07:46   You haven't written it down in a theme system journal

02:07:48   or even a notes document,

02:07:49   but you do have recorded it on this podcast

02:07:51   and Casey will forget about it, but I won't.

02:07:53   - That's correct.

02:07:54   - The theme system journal looks like a really nice product

02:07:57   that I would not use because I don't use paper.

02:07:59   It looks really nice though.

02:08:01   - Yeah, we have computers.

02:08:02   People who like paper like paper.

02:08:03   But every time I see those things, it's like,

02:08:05   this is the whole reason I like computers.

02:08:07   I don't have to do things on paper.

02:08:09   - I wish I liked paper and pens.

02:08:11   It looks so cool.

02:08:12   The whole world looks so cool

02:08:13   and you got all these nice notebooks.

02:08:15   - You have to see my own handwriting.

02:08:16   That's not cool.

02:08:17   - Yeah, that's the problem.

02:08:18   Every time I hand write anything now,

02:08:20   God, this sucks.

02:08:21   I just want to type things.

02:08:22   - You're writing everything in graffiti.

02:08:24   I know, it's terrible.

02:08:25   - Yeah, nice pull.

02:08:26   My Palm 5X is already broken, by the way.

02:08:28   - Why do your As not have crosses on them?

02:08:30   I don't know how to write anymore.

02:08:32   - I'm just graffiti.

02:08:33   I write all the letters in the same spot

02:08:34   on top of each other and then I can't read it later.

02:08:36   (laughing)

02:08:37   Oh my gosh.

02:08:38   - But setting the goal, or setting the theme as overcast,

02:08:41   I'm intentionally being a little too specific with that

02:08:45   because that's the level of focus it needs this year.

02:08:49   If I would instead say something like the year of work.

02:08:52   That is a valid thing.

02:08:54   I think that was Gray's last year one.

02:08:56   - No, that was a year of new decades Dawn sequel.

02:08:59   (laughing)

02:09:00   - Whatever.

02:09:01   - It wasn't actually, this isn't inside Jordan.

02:09:03   The titles of their themes have had varying quality

02:09:06   over the years.

02:09:07   - Yes, but in certain years you might want to open

02:09:10   new opportunities.

02:09:12   In certain years you might want to focus on closing

02:09:14   opportunities or focus on the ones you have.

02:09:16   There can be more broad themes.

02:09:18   For me, this year, the theme needs to be overcast.

02:09:21   It is a huge part of my income.

02:09:24   It is my main business.

02:09:25   It is also my main product that I craft.

02:09:28   It is the main thing I work on as a programmer

02:09:31   because I don't work on the CMS.

02:09:33   (laughing)

02:09:34   - Right.

02:09:35   - It's very important to me and it has been neglected.

02:09:39   I have neglected it because I have been spending

02:09:41   too much time doing other work or other needs in my life

02:09:45   and this year is when I need to get back to it.

02:09:48   It makes me confident that I can do it.

02:09:51   That I've already been swinging back to it for a month

02:09:54   and it's been going very well.

02:09:55   - A month that you've been doing it?

02:09:56   I think you've been swinging back to it for a while now.

02:09:58   Although this theme, obviously Cortex is about productivity

02:10:03   and people's work lives or whatever,

02:10:04   but themes don't necessarily have to be focused on work life

02:10:07   which is another reason that overcast

02:10:08   is maybe a little bit too specific.

02:10:10   You will hear themes from the two of them

02:10:12   that are not absolutely confined to one of the many things

02:10:17   they do as part of their work.

02:10:19   Obviously health would be an example of that

02:10:20   because that's not work related.

02:10:22   It's something you're focusing on yourself.

02:10:25   But I'm always waiting for a yearly theme

02:10:27   that has nothing to do with any of their jobs.

02:10:30   A year of romance.

02:10:32   You could apply that to some of their work as well,

02:10:34   but always the themes are a thing that applies

02:10:37   to one of my businesses and also my life.

02:10:40   I guess health is the closest they've come.

02:10:43   Anyway, this is not going to be the year of romance for me

02:10:46   any more than any previous years were

02:10:48   because I don't do themes.

02:10:49   But I would suggest that for people.

02:10:51   Someone should pick that up.

02:10:52   Your romance.

02:10:53   It's out there.

02:10:54   You're brave enough to pick it up.

02:10:56   All kidding aside, I really like the idea of a yearly theme,

02:11:00   but I don't feel like I have ever, ever, ever landed on one

02:11:05   that I can really grab onto and say,

02:11:08   "Yes, this was what I want for this year."

02:11:11   That's not their fault. That's my fault.

02:11:13   But I can't get there.

02:11:16   I'm also not disciplined enough.

02:11:18   So let's say that this year was the year of work,

02:11:21   and then I decide that I just want to get distracted by,

02:11:24   I don't know, wiring the house for Ethernet and fiber and whatnot.

02:11:27   Well, there goes the year of work.

02:11:28   You could have had past themes,

02:11:30   like, again, themes that are not focused on work.

02:11:32   You could have had year of reproduction.

02:11:34   You could have had multiple years of reproduction.

02:11:36   Yes. Well, in that sense, I have had--

02:11:38   Yeah, I think you did.

02:11:39   I think you did have multiple years of reproduction.

02:11:41   Yes, we had probably, what, like five years of reproduction?

02:11:44   Not all yearly themes.

02:11:45   I mean, it is aspirational,

02:11:47   and it is a thing that you went through that is difficult

02:11:50   that would--guided all your decisions for a long period of time.

02:11:52   You just didn't write it down in a little book.

02:11:54   I mean, I guess that's true.

02:11:55   But I view--even though I agree with everything you're saying,

02:11:59   that the yearly theme by no means has to be work-related,

02:12:03   I do view it as it should be work-involved,

02:12:07   even if it's not specifically for work.

02:12:09   And I don't know.

02:12:11   I don't feel like I am good enough and disciplined enough to stick with it.

02:12:15   And I think that if they were here to argue with us,

02:12:18   they would say, "Well, it's not about discipline.

02:12:19   It's just about guiding your actions and guiding your thoughts."

02:12:22   And that's fair.

02:12:23   Yeah, it's what you make of it, I think, largely.

02:12:25   And that's by design.

02:12:27   And I don't know.

02:12:28   I feel like if this year was the year of, I don't know,

02:12:32   perfecting call sheet, which is, again, too specific.

02:12:35   I don't know.

02:12:36   I can't even think of a good example because I just--

02:12:38   I can't think of anything.

02:12:40   The year of living dangerously.

02:12:42   There's one for you.

02:12:43   Yeah, well, how would you live dangerously, John Sircusi?

02:12:46   Would you leave the house every once in a while?

02:12:48   Coke instead of Sprite?

02:12:49   I'm leaving the house all the time.

02:12:51   Yeah, but you won't come to New York when two-thirds of the podcast are there.

02:12:54   I'm still grumpy.

02:12:55   Still grumpy, John.

02:12:56   You were there for a reason.

02:12:58   Not that I want to get stuck in the sand.

02:13:00   You know what you could have been there?

02:13:01   You know what your reason could have been?

02:13:02   To see some of your great friends that you haven't seen in five friggin' years.

02:13:06   Four, whatever.

02:13:07   Just wait until we all get invited to an Apple event.

02:13:09   Yeah, okay.

02:13:10   Yeah, sure.

02:13:11   Like you would go anyway.

02:13:12   Like you would go anyway.

02:13:13   There's no chance.

02:13:14   I would go.

02:13:15   I'm ready.

02:13:16   Apple.

02:13:17   I would go to Apple events.

02:13:18   Would you?

02:13:19   So if they have a big Vision Pro event and invite all of us, which I guarantee you is

02:13:23   not going to happen, but if that's for some reason happened, would you go?

02:13:26   Yeah, no.

02:13:27   I've, ever since I've been out of my jobby job, I've been prepared to go to things that

02:13:32   I get invited to by Apple, and the one time it happened, I had to demure because I had

02:13:36   my son's high school graduation, and then since then I've never been invited.

02:13:40   So I'm just out here waiting.

02:13:41   And I'm sorry.

02:13:43   I wanted to go to my son's high school graduation.

02:13:46   So sue me.

02:13:47   And my daughter's going to graduate soon too, and not this year, but next year.

02:13:51   I'm going to go to that graduation too, Apple.

02:13:53   So don't invite me on the day that she's going to have her high school graduation.

02:13:56   But barring that, I'm ready to go to Apple events.

02:13:58   I still haven't even been to Apple Park.

02:13:59   I still want to go.

02:14:00   Oh, it's really cool.

02:14:02   I'm sure it is.

02:14:03   If only someone would invite me.

02:14:04   Okay.

02:14:05   [beep, beep, beep]