74: Tablet Incorporated
00:00:08
◼
►
From relay FM, this is Upgrade, episode number 74. Today's show is brought to you by Ministry
00:00:14
◼
►
of Supply and Squarespace. My name is Myke Hurley, and I'm joined, as always, by the
00:00:19
◼
►
one and only Mr. Jason Snell.
00:00:21
◼
►
Hi, Myke. I do whatever a spider can.
00:00:24
◼
►
Yes you do, you do indeed. Jason Mann, Jason Mann. For everybody listening now, me and
00:00:31
◼
►
Jason were just talking about Spider-Man for 20 minutes and it'll be a B-side for today's
00:00:34
◼
►
episode so you can go and get that if you would like to.
00:00:38
◼
►
Talk more about, listen to us talk about Spider-Man and digital comics we can...
00:00:41
◼
►
Yeah. Spider-Man, Spider-Man. I want to just jump straight into follow-up this week, Jason.
00:00:46
◼
►
Let's do it. We'll leap like a spider.
00:00:49
◼
►
Exactly immediately pouncing onto the follow-up. I'm gonna say listener Yan. I'm gonna go with Yan
00:00:55
◼
►
sent us a link to a
00:00:58
◼
►
iMac which was referred to as the special edition iMac. Do you remember this? Yes. I remember that well
00:01:06
◼
►
Oh, yeah, that's the it's the graphite was the color because it's got a great plastic bubble. This is the classic
00:01:12
◼
►
CRT based iMac
00:01:15
◼
►
And this was I believe now Stephen Hackett would be able to tell you exactly but I believe that this was a
00:01:23
◼
►
Faster processor it was more expensive model a faster processor
00:01:28
◼
►
I'm not sure if this had a ports because the iMac DV is what added firewire across the line
00:01:35
◼
►
So I'm not sure if there was a special like extra ports or something or if it was just a faster
00:01:41
◼
►
processor, but it was graphite. It was it was gray. It was serious. It was not a
00:01:44
◼
►
Silly frivolous colorful computer. It was the graphite iMac special edition
00:01:51
◼
►
And and it's just funny. It's a reminder that Apple used to differentiate the iMac
00:01:56
◼
►
And the iBook by by color like they would do eventually with iPods
00:02:01
◼
►
And you know, we don't see color differentiation other than I mean we now do have gold space gray and silver on the MacBook
00:02:10
◼
►
So that's something but for a long time
00:02:12
◼
►
Color just kind of went away from the Mac product line
00:02:16
◼
►
But back in the day, you know
00:02:18
◼
►
They they had the special edition iMac and the most notable thing about it other than I think it was the top of the line
00:02:24
◼
►
You know config was that it was it was gray. I
00:02:27
◼
►
Gotta say looking at this now
00:02:30
◼
►
That is still an incredible looking machine, you know, so striking
00:02:37
◼
►
Yeah, yeah, it is it is kind of brilliant. I mean what it's timeless. Yeah, I'd say I'd say the only thing about the iMac
00:02:44
◼
►
that hasn't aged well is
00:02:46
◼
►
Also part of its brilliance, which is and this is a you know, one of those full credit to Johnny I've moments
00:02:52
◼
►
He you know, we see these videos and he saw Johnny I've always talks about him in his white room videos about how you know
00:03:00
◼
►
a product needs to be true to itself, but
00:03:03
◼
►
that was so true about that about the iMac it was a computer with an integrated monitor which means it needed and
00:03:10
◼
►
And you saw in the run-up to the iMac in hindsight some of those other all-in-ones that they made the molar
00:03:16
◼
►
That we've talked about before that g3 beige all-in-one that was primarily for education that looked like a big tooth
00:03:24
◼
►
That Johnny I've kind of struggled with how do you integrate a CRT because the CRT has the screen that you see
00:03:32
◼
►
as you're using it and you don't think about it, but it's got this huge bulb on the back of it,
00:03:37
◼
►
because it's got a raster-like gun painting the screen, painting the phosphors on the screen,
00:03:46
◼
►
right? That CRT technology worked like that. And that's what the iMac is. The iMac fully
00:03:52
◼
►
embraces that there's this giant bulb on the back, this giant tube that is the CRT. And so,
00:04:02
◼
►
So on one level it is a perfect and brilliant design, on another level from the perspective
00:04:08
◼
►
of now where the CRT is completely dead tech, it is particularly anachronistic.
00:04:16
◼
►
But I mean that's true of classic movies now too, there are lots of classic sci-fi movies
00:04:20
◼
►
that, the thing that stops me short when I watch them now is that there are CRTs everywhere.
00:04:26
◼
►
You go, "Oh." And if you can see the bulk of them and the curve of the glass screen
00:04:32
◼
►
and it's very clearly a CRT and you think, "Yeah, that's gone." We, in the last 10 years,
00:04:38
◼
►
have basically eradicated CRTs. So when I look at the iMac, that's what I think. On
00:04:44
◼
►
one level it's like, "Wow, it's really cool." On another level it's like, "Boy, the CRT
00:04:47
◼
►
was dumb. It's all we had." But it's so big. And that's why that iMac looks like that.
00:04:52
◼
►
But it is brilliant. It is a brilliant design. And the moment that I remember the first time
00:04:56
◼
►
we saw it, we're like, "Whoa," is basically what we all said. And it totally changed Apple's
00:05:03
◼
►
fortunes. That was the thing that stopped Apple from sliding into the abyss, really,
00:05:07
◼
►
was the iMac. And that design was a huge part of it because it was not a super powerful
00:05:12
◼
►
computer. The iMac now is the sweet spot of the Mac line, but back then, it was kind of
00:05:20
◼
►
underpowered. It was not a power Mac, but the design of it was kind of spectacular.
00:05:26
◼
►
Every time I see one I do wish for a little bit more color in the product
00:05:30
◼
►
line again. And I know that this is just a personal taste thing like I am a
00:05:35
◼
►
clearly I am a documented relatively flamboyant person when it comes to my
00:05:40
◼
►
technology right? I like color, I like stickers, I like all that stuff right?
00:05:45
◼
►
That is just a thing that I like so my own personal tastes would love to see a
00:05:50
◼
►
little bit more color come back to come back to the line the product line. I mean
00:05:55
◼
►
I've always been a big fan of the 5C for that reason, and it's why I have blue and
00:06:02
◼
►
orange cases for my iPhone, and it's why I have multiple colored sport bands and stuff
00:06:07
◼
►
like that. That is just what I like.
00:06:11
◼
►
Well, I suspect we are going to enter an era where Apple is at least confident enough with
00:06:18
◼
►
their anodization of aluminum to make the MacBook come in three different colors, and
00:06:23
◼
►
it wouldn't surprise me if at some point, you know, all the laptops certainly were like
00:06:27
◼
►
that. I'm not sure whether they're gonna ever offer multiple colors of the iMac or the Mac
00:06:32
◼
►
Pro. Can you imagine like the like the cherry red Mac Pro? Because that's what you need
00:06:39
◼
►
is it's a style thing. But it's a start. I am actually a little disappointed that they
00:06:48
◼
►
don't offer iPod colors for the iPhones and for the MacBook.
00:06:55
◼
►
My only thinking behind this is just for the pure logistical nightmare that it would be
00:07:01
◼
►
to manage eight color options of the iPhone. In my mind, they're edging it up slowly over
00:07:08
◼
►
time but you can't really have four bright colors, right? You have to have a range like
00:07:14
◼
►
they did with the iPods I think. If you're gonna go down that route you'd need to have
00:07:19
◼
►
what they have now so you know remove rose gold from the equation because that would
00:07:23
◼
►
just become pink right they just make that a colour but you'd need to have your gold,
00:07:27
◼
►
silver and grey but then you'd need to have like red, blue, orange, pink, green you know
00:07:33
◼
►
you'd need a much broader spectrum and that might be why and also it's like that feels
00:07:37
◼
►
like in a year maybe when the S line has not got a lot to do that's when they throw the
00:07:43
◼
►
colour in. You can keep that one in the back pocket, right? Because you don't need to do
00:07:48
◼
►
it now if you're adding enough as it is. Or maybe our friend, the 5SE, will be the one
00:07:53
◼
►
that gets put in a bunch of colours like they did with the C.
00:07:57
◼
►
Maybe. I think for stocking reasons it's complicated, but they did it with the iPod,
00:08:02
◼
►
right? I mean, they had the iPod in all the different colours and it was fine.
00:08:07
◼
►
Yeah, but the iPod didn't sell as many as the iPhone. That's why I think there could
00:08:11
◼
►
be an issue with it, you know?
00:08:13
◼
►
>> Yeah, but what about the MacBook?
00:08:14
◼
►
You know, why wouldn't you do a limited edition red Mac, you know, product red MacBook that
00:08:19
◼
►
you could only order online or something like that?
00:08:22
◼
►
Apple's shown their ability to do this.
00:08:23
◼
►
So you know, it may just be that they, I think simplicity is probably in the supply chain
00:08:30
◼
►
all the way through the distribution to the retail side that, you know, it's a big step
00:08:35
◼
►
for them to have three instead of one for a laptop.
00:08:38
◼
►
It's been a long time.
00:08:39
◼
►
It is hard not to look at those old iMacs, you know, before they went to the flat screen
00:08:44
◼
►
and became kind of monochromatic.
00:08:47
◼
►
They were this incredible color thing, and they all had personality, right?
00:08:52
◼
►
And in the end, it got a little ridiculous with the patterns, with like the cowboy one
00:08:58
◼
►
and the hippie one, the blue dalmatian and flower power.
00:09:04
◼
►
But you know, they learned their lesson there, and the iMac, or the iPod, they stayed on
00:09:09
◼
►
brand, right? They stayed on colors. They would make the colors more vibrant or whatever,
00:09:13
◼
►
which was probably a process thing, but they had like kind of a core set of colors. And
00:09:17
◼
►
they knew which, you know, ultimately I think they knew what demand was for each color,
00:09:21
◼
►
so they could really kind of control that. That could be the same. I don't know. I mean,
00:09:25
◼
►
maybe people aren't clamoring for a blue MacBook, but oh man, actually, you know, if there were
00:09:30
◼
►
a thing that would push me over the edge to buy a MacBook to replace my MacBook Air at
00:09:33
◼
►
some point, having it be in a cool color, that might do it. That might do it. So who
00:09:38
◼
►
who knows? I don't know.
00:09:39
◼
►
>> Got a lovely orange one, match your crazy keyboard.
00:09:42
◼
►
>> Yeah, I could, I could, that's true. I mean, it's, yeah, it's just fun. Well, they
00:09:46
◼
►
made those, the, the, the iBook, they had the orange, the tangerine, right? They had
00:09:51
◼
►
the orange and the blue iBook at the beginning too, the, the colors you could get. So that
00:09:57
◼
►
was kind of fun. It was, I mean, fun, right? Like buying a computer is, it can be fun on,
00:10:02
◼
►
on its own, but adding this whole other level of like, not just should I buy a computer,
00:10:07
◼
►
model do you want, but would you like it in blue or would you like it in orange? And getting
00:10:13
◼
►
to decide that. That's just, that's kind of fun. So yeah, special edition iMac takes us
00:10:19
◼
►
back to back, back when it was a bold move to offer a Mac in monochrome.
00:10:24
◼
►
A moment ago you mentioned the supply chain, which takes us to more rumors this week. So
00:10:31
◼
►
following up on last week we were talking about the potential product offering for the
00:10:34
◼
►
the spring, it now would appear that the iPad Air 3 is slated to be unveiled at this March
00:10:43
◼
►
event, which is still scheduled to be around the 14th, as it stands right now. There have
00:10:49
◼
►
been some rumours from the supply chain, there's also been rumours from some case manufacturers
00:10:54
◼
►
on what's coming from there. And basically, the iPad Air 3 is looking to be the iPad Pro
00:11:01
◼
►
We're talking four speakers, a smart connector and Apple pencil support, but also a flash
00:11:07
◼
►
for the camera.
00:11:09
◼
►
Again that, you know, whilst that seems crazy to some, I mean, the last of the things the
00:11:13
◼
►
iPad Air 2, when they basically spent a lot of time devoting to saying, look, this people
00:11:20
◼
►
take pictures on this thing, so we're putting a good camera in it.
00:11:23
◼
►
And if you're going to put a good camera in it, put a flash in it too, right?
00:11:26
◼
►
You know, it seems at this point seems silly not to.
00:11:31
◼
►
What do you think of this, Jason? Are we likely to see the iPad Pro Mini here? Do you think
00:11:37
◼
►
that's what Apple--they're not going to pitch it as this, but do you think it's really going
00:11:41
◼
►
to have all of the same features that the Pro has?
00:11:44
◼
►
There's so much here. There's so much here. And we are going to talk more about what we
00:11:50
◼
►
saw in Apple's earnings report.
00:11:52
◼
►
Oh yeah, do I have a lot to say about the iPad later on?
00:11:56
◼
►
And they connect, right? They connect. So what I will say now is, I think, I mean, first
00:12:02
◼
►
off, this is a Mark Gurman report, and I trust him. His sources are pretty much impeccable.
00:12:08
◼
►
I think this is gonna happen. I think it's interesting that they haven't nailed down
00:12:12
◼
►
the date yet. I mean, that means that Apple probably hasn't nailed down the date yet.
00:12:16
◼
►
That's the week of the Yosemite Conference, by the way. So Serenity Caldwell and Jim Dalrymple
00:12:19
◼
►
and I are probably sitting here going, "Oh man," because, you know, that's not good.
00:12:26
◼
►
I've been waiting for Apple to do an event the week that I'm supposed to be speaking
00:12:29
◼
►
at a conference and it might actually happen. Not quite sure what we're going to do about
00:12:33
◼
►
Hey Apple, I'll go. Just want to let you know, if you're listening, I'll go for them all.
00:12:40
◼
►
Sure. So, Gurman, you know, he's solid. It's probably a done deal. It makes a lot of sense.
00:12:46
◼
►
We will talk later, but I mean, when we were talking about iPad sales last week being down
00:12:52
◼
►
again, I heard from a lot of people who said they didn't update their most popular iPad.
00:12:59
◼
►
Why do you think, you know, there wasn't a boost?
00:13:01
◼
►
And it's a fair point.
00:13:03
◼
►
No iPad Air 3 in the fall, instead the Pro and the Mini got the updates.
00:13:06
◼
►
I'm keeping my mouth closed right now.
00:13:09
◼
►
And those are the edge cases.
00:13:11
◼
►
So I think that's that. What I will say about the specific specs that you mentioned,
00:13:18
◼
►
I think it's funny. Sometimes it really does pay to ask yourself the question, what
00:13:23
◼
►
are the most logical things to be upgraded in a product? Just leave everything else behind
00:13:30
◼
►
and say, and walk through it of like, what do people use? What is there to be upgraded?
00:13:35
◼
►
What's in other products? What are the things that... And you can make a list and not everything
00:13:40
◼
►
on that list maybe will happen, but there are some things on that list that this is
00:13:45
◼
►
the same process that Apple goes through, right? Which is like, what are the things
00:13:48
◼
►
we could do to update this product? It's a fairly mature product. What are the things?
00:13:51
◼
►
And you know, Apple Pencil support and smart connector support seem completely logical.
00:13:56
◼
►
Why would you have those be one-off products on the iPad Pro? That seems like you were
00:14:00
◼
►
trying them out on the iPad Pro and then pulling them to the mainstream with the iPad Air 3.
00:14:07
◼
►
good since it took you a while to make enough pencils, right? So, see again, kind of makes
00:14:13
◼
►
Still not in all the stores in London that I go to.
00:14:15
◼
►
And lots of bugs in the smart connector too, right? We've heard about that iOS 9.3 fixes
00:14:20
◼
►
a lot of problems with that Logitech keyboard, that Create keyboard, right? That there have
00:14:28
◼
►
been bugs there. So you shake the bugs out and then you put it in the more mainstream
00:14:33
◼
►
product a little bit later. The four speakers thing again we saw in the iPad
00:14:37
◼
►
Pro gives you a much better sound that kind of makes a lot of sense and then
00:14:40
◼
►
the flash for camera thing although the iPad Pro doesn't have something like
00:14:43
◼
►
that you know you mentioned it this is Apple embracing how these products are
00:14:47
◼
►
used even if their anticipation about how they would be used was maybe not
00:14:51
◼
►
accurate and the iPad as a thing where you take pictures it happens you know I
00:14:56
◼
►
yesterday I took a bunch of pictures with my iPad because I was sitting on
00:15:00
◼
►
couch, I was reading, and I saw that my dog and cat, who are not the dog—we only have
00:15:06
◼
►
the dog for a few months—they are gradually warming up to each other, in that the cat
00:15:12
◼
►
no longer hates us for bringing a dog into the house. But they were sitting—because
00:15:16
◼
►
the great equalizer is the sunbeam, right? So they're both sitting in a sunbeam. And
00:15:21
◼
►
I knew that if I stood up and went and got my phone or some other camera to take a picture,
00:15:27
◼
►
moment would be gone because I would get up and the dog would follow me around or the
00:15:31
◼
►
cat would run away or something like that. But my iPad was next to me, so I picked it
00:15:35
◼
►
up, I took a bunch of pictures with my iPad because it was there, it was the camera that
00:15:38
◼
►
I had with me. So, you know, embracing that the iPad is going to be used for photography,
00:15:42
◼
►
whether we can complain about it, it's not appropriate or whatever, it's too bad, it's
00:15:46
◼
►
going to get used. So putting a flash on it, I mean, it's not going to be probably the
00:15:50
◼
►
same level of technology as on the iPhone, maybe, you know, that I'm sure they're cooking
00:15:56
◼
►
up even more great technology for the iPhone for this later this year but it makes the
00:16:02
◼
►
iPad better to have a flash on it. Why not? Why not do that? It makes it a better product.
00:16:06
◼
►
So you follow you start to follow the lines there and then you read a story like this
00:16:11
◼
►
from Mark Herman and it makes sense. This is how do you make the iPad Air 2 better?
00:16:17
◼
►
Yeah you upgrade the processor and all that but you do these other things yeah you add
00:16:20
◼
►
these other little things and it pushes the whole line forward and it gives people who
00:16:24
◼
►
who are still using an iPad 3 or an iPad Air 1 reason to buy a new iPad, which is good
00:16:30
◼
►
for Apple. They need that.
00:16:32
◼
►
Yeah, they really do. I want to talk about earnings, which is not something that we do
00:16:37
◼
►
very often on this show. We'll talk about on this episode of This Break why we're doing
00:16:41
◼
►
that. But this week's episode is brought to you by Ministry of Supply. I really like these
00:16:46
◼
►
guys. They're doing some really interesting things. And their whole idea as a company
00:16:50
◼
►
is built around the fact that we're on the go these days and our clothing is something
00:16:55
◼
►
that obviously we have to wear but sometimes it can actually be restrictive and kind of
00:17:00
◼
►
work against us right you can be wearing a shirt a nice shirt to work but it's warm outside
00:17:05
◼
►
so it makes you sweat and that kind of feels a bit frustrating right that the clothes that
00:17:09
◼
►
you have to wear are actually kind of working against you this is the vision that drives
00:17:14
◼
►
ministries supply they are a performance professional menswear company that launched out of MIT
00:17:20
◼
►
years ago. They make polished business clothes that are engineered by these MIT trained engineers
00:17:26
◼
►
to provide technical benefits like body temperature regulation, they have sweat wicking fibres
00:17:31
◼
►
to keep you dry and stretchable fabric to help you move freely. Their most tech forward
00:17:37
◼
►
dress shirt is called the Apollo. It's made with those moisture wicking fibres and what
00:17:41
◼
►
this does is it makes sure that it keeps you cool and it makes sure that it's keeping you
00:17:45
◼
►
dry. There's temperature regulating phase change material, Jason you'll like this, this
00:17:50
◼
►
This is the same stuff that NASA developed to keep astronauts cool in space.
00:17:53
◼
►
Oh yeah, I have some of their stuff and it actually feels really great.
00:17:58
◼
►
And it's a little bit high tech.
00:18:02
◼
►
But it feels really, it doesn't feel like you're wearing a space suit.
00:18:05
◼
►
It feels really like super comfortable.
00:18:08
◼
►
Plus it's got all these other attributes.
00:18:10
◼
►
Like light-knit construction for breathability and four-way stretch for mobility.
00:18:15
◼
►
All of their clothes, this is one of my favorite features, are easy to maintain and wrinkle
00:18:18
◼
►
resistant as well.
00:18:19
◼
►
So you can wash and dry them at home and you don't need to iron them.
00:18:23
◼
►
I hate ironing.
00:18:24
◼
►
I hate ironing so much and the fact that there is this incredible stuff and we're talking
00:18:29
◼
►
like real nice shirts, right?
00:18:30
◼
►
I have a real nice shirt, a real nice jumper from Ministry of Supply or a sweater I believe
00:18:34
◼
►
as you would call it, Jason.
00:18:36
◼
►
And their stuff, it looks really great.
00:18:39
◼
►
It fits in real nice with just the regular nice clothes that you would wear but also
00:18:43
◼
►
has all these added benefits to keep you cool, to keep you nice and flexible.
00:18:48
◼
►
absolutely fantastic. You can find out more and shop online at ministryofsupplier.com/upgrade
00:18:54
◼
►
and use the code upgrade to get 15% off your first purchase and show your support for this show.
00:18:59
◼
►
But my favorite thing, if you shop in person at a Ministry of Supply store, just mention this
00:19:04
◼
►
podcast and you will get 15% off your first purchase. And Jason, somebody sent me a tweet
00:19:08
◼
►
that they've been into a store in Boston, they mentioned our shows and they got that discount.
00:19:12
◼
►
How amazing is that? Yeah, I saw the picture. Thank you so much to Ministry of Supplier for
00:19:17
◼
►
for supporting this show and Real AFM.
00:19:20
◼
►
Alright, so, a couple of reasons we don't usually talk about earnings. This show is
00:19:24
◼
►
on a Monday, and the earnings usually come out midweek.
00:19:28
◼
►
Tuesday, yeah.
00:19:29
◼
►
And also, also it tends not to be that exciting, right? Like from a, it's like everything's
00:19:34
◼
►
up, Wall Street's crazy, on we go.
00:19:37
◼
►
Yeah, we're not, we're not a, I mean this is what I tell people when I write about it
00:19:41
◼
►
in Six Colors and when I wrote about it in Macworld back in the day, it's like, I am
00:19:44
◼
►
not an investor. I'm not an investment journalist. I don't have Apple stock. I don't have technology
00:19:51
◼
►
stock. I don't care. I mean, I legitimately don't care about this except as a way to,
00:19:59
◼
►
because this is mandated, because Apple is a public company, we get to look at Apple's
00:20:04
◼
►
business and understand it better. And for me, that's the most important thing is how
00:20:09
◼
►
are the products doing? Why is Apple making the decisions that they're making? What can
00:20:14
◼
►
we use? How can we use this information to understand Apple and its decisions and its
00:20:19
◼
►
products better?
00:20:20
◼
►
And also, as people that talk about this stuff and try to look ahead, that's kind of a lot
00:20:25
◼
►
of what, you know, we do as thinkers about these things. This really helps us. It gives
00:20:30
◼
►
us some guidance to look ahead, because you can kind of see where the products are going,
00:20:35
◼
►
Apple were not going to put all of their money into the failing area right and just not make
00:20:40
◼
►
iPhones anymore. You know you can kind of see a little bit more about where they're
00:20:44
◼
►
going as a company. Now for anybody that doesn't know I'll give a couple of the headlines from
00:20:49
◼
►
this earnings report. Their revenue is $75.9 billion, $16.1 million iPad sold, $74.8 million
00:20:57
◼
►
iPhone sold, 5.3 million max and a quarterly net profit of $18.4 billion.
00:21:05
◼
►
So again, this has been said everywhere because it's an important fact, it's an interesting
00:21:10
◼
►
fact and especially in our circles people use it to try and butt against the crazy Wall
00:21:15
◼
►
Street analysis. This is the most profit any companies have posted in the history of all
00:21:19
◼
►
companies. This amount of money, this 70 something, how much did I say, 75.9 million,
00:21:26
◼
►
$5.9 billion is the most ever. And it's up on last year by a hair, right? Like it wasn't
00:21:34
◼
►
an awful lot, but it was still up. And that's kind of setting the stage for something interesting
00:21:41
◼
►
in that Tim Cook basically got on the call and said, "Next quarter, we're down." And
00:21:47
◼
►
that is unprecedented, right? Like that is-
00:21:49
◼
►
It's been a while.
00:21:51
◼
►
Next month, next quarter, our iPhone sales are going to be down.
00:21:55
◼
►
Jason, what is going on here?
00:21:56
◼
►
Wow, that's what an open-ended question that is.
00:22:02
◼
►
Well, you listen to the call, right?
00:22:03
◼
►
Why are iPhone sales going to be down next quarter?
00:22:05
◼
►
What's happening there?
00:22:06
◼
►
Well, I mean, who knows?
00:22:09
◼
►
It's my answer to that.
00:22:11
◼
►
We don't know.
00:22:12
◼
►
It looks like the iPhone has—there's a question about, like, growth has slowed, essentially.
00:22:21
◼
►
isn't necessarily stopped, although next quarter is going to be down year over year. Apple's
00:22:26
◼
►
got some, you know, they've got some excuses for that that I think don't, that are deflection.
00:22:32
◼
►
They say, "Well, last year we couldn't ship enough in the holiday quarter, and so there
00:22:37
◼
►
was pent-up demand that we had to meet in the first quarter. So the first quarter was
00:22:42
◼
►
higher than it would normally be, and so it's going to be hard for us to match that in the
00:22:47
◼
►
first calendar quarter of 2016."
00:22:49
◼
►
2016. Yeah, I like that excuse because that means that if you would have shipped them
00:22:53
◼
►
all then Q4 would, like this Q1 wouldn't have been as big, it would have been down,
00:22:59
◼
►
right? That you would have been down somewhere. Conference call today would be the first time
00:23:04
◼
►
you've gone down year over year instead of in three months. It just shifts it, it doesn't
00:23:09
◼
►
actually change it. You can kind of understand that thinking a little bit, right? Because
00:23:13
◼
►
it was selling into China for the first time and they had a lot of pent up demand and they
00:23:19
◼
►
had and basically sales went through the roof because they sent sold into China for the
00:23:23
◼
►
first time and then I don't know what what's the I don't know what the carrier situation
00:23:29
◼
►
is like but if it's anything like the rest of the world a lot of those people won't be
00:23:32
◼
►
upgraded for two years or so right is if it's similar to to places like Europe and America
00:23:40
◼
►
So yeah, maybe it would have been a bit different, but that's kind of where we are.
00:23:44
◼
►
And one of the most interesting things that the, and this is kind of why the analysts have all
00:23:49
◼
►
gone crazy in the stock field through the floor, is that the iPhone didn't grow by like 10 million
00:23:56
◼
►
sales year on year, and next quarter it's going to be down. And that's why people are kind of
00:24:02
◼
►
getting so upset about this. So I've been thinking about this, right? And I mean, okay.
00:24:08
◼
►
Okay, again, we're not going to talk about this from the perspective of what the market
00:24:14
◼
►
feels like because whatever.
00:24:17
◼
►
Is this a bad thing?
00:24:18
◼
►
Like the iPhone clearly seems to have reached now its maximum and it had to happen because
00:24:27
◼
►
eventually they were going to run out of people that could buy it.
00:24:29
◼
►
But what it would appear to be from the surface is that as we stand right now, the iPhone
00:24:36
◼
►
has seen as big as it can get, and now we're just going to be in a stage where it will
00:24:43
◼
►
grow very small if it grows at all, and all you'll see now is people buying new ones.
00:24:49
◼
►
Is that what we're likely to see, do you think? Like, is that the situation that we're in?
00:24:55
◼
►
So I think one of the challenges is that a lot of the language that Apple uses to communicate
00:24:59
◼
►
with Wall Street and financial analysts is about growth, because that's what they're
00:25:02
◼
►
concerned about is growth. And so for the average everyday person, they can misinterpret
00:25:08
◼
►
that as being a discussion about iPhone sales stopping. Like, what they're talking about
00:25:13
◼
►
is the acceleration stops. And what I think a lot of people hear is people have stopped
00:25:19
◼
►
buying iPhones and sales are down. And my argument would be that iPhone sales aren't
00:25:26
◼
►
really gonna go down anytime soon. Next quarter, they're gonna be down year on year a little
00:25:29
◼
►
bit but in the long run I don't think what we've seen is peak iPhone in the sense that
00:25:34
◼
►
there's a peak and then it comes down the other side like with the iPod. I don't think
00:25:38
◼
►
that's the case. I think the I wrote a piece about about this a little bit at iMore on
00:25:43
◼
►
Friday called the persistence of iPhone and one of the subheads in there is what goes
00:25:48
◼
►
up stays up. I don't think this is the dome kind of chart where you see the iPod goes
00:25:54
◼
►
up and then it comes back down until it's gone. Because the iPod got replaced by smartphones.
00:26:00
◼
►
But smartphone category is the special category. It is, we live in the smartphone era. I don't
00:26:05
◼
►
see any product on the horizon that is going to replace the smartphone and I don't see
00:26:09
◼
►
people stopping buying smartphones because they are a key part of life now. And, you
00:26:17
◼
►
know, in fact, not to get all philosophical, but I'm at the point now where I'm starting
00:26:22
◼
►
to think history is going to look back at the personal computer era as that archaic
00:26:28
◼
►
time when we could build technology but it wasn't small enough to fit in our pocket.
00:26:35
◼
►
The PC is just a precursor for the smartphone and that the smartphone is the thing that's
00:26:39
◼
►
like, "Oh." Now maybe in 10 or 20 years there'll be a thing you put in your ear or on your
00:26:44
◼
►
eyeball or whatever in your brain that will all be like, "Oh, well, the smartphone isn't
00:26:49
◼
►
that silly because we had to hold a piece of glass and put it in our pocket, but those
00:26:54
◼
►
are probably a ways off. So for the foreseeable future, smartphones are going to be huge,
00:27:00
◼
►
and unless Apple blows it and hands the market to Android phones, which they've shown no
00:27:05
◼
►
sign of doing, the places where Apple competes, Apple does very well, I think the iPhone is
00:27:10
◼
►
going to continue to sell. And Apple will make the argument that the iPhone still has
00:27:16
◼
►
room to grow because they see switchers from Android a lot, and they have markets that
00:27:21
◼
►
they're not very strong in. And although that's a little counterintuitive to point at some
00:27:25
◼
►
place like India and say, "India is a great growth opportunity for Apple," when you have
00:27:29
◼
►
very little presence in a market, there's a lot of growth opportunity because you are
00:27:34
◼
►
doing nothing there. And if you can find a way to do something there, it's pretty much
00:27:38
◼
►
all going to be growth because you're starting from zero or close to zero. So Apple's argument
00:27:44
◼
►
is there's still room for growth. I think Apple would not even try to argue that there's
00:27:48
◼
►
still room for, you know, 100% growth year over year because, first off, they're too
00:27:55
◼
►
big. Like you said, everybody's got one. We seem to have left the people are still—people
00:28:03
◼
►
don't have smartphones and are now adding smartphones. That era in most places, especially
00:28:09
◼
►
in the richer, more industrialized countries seems to have passed. And so it's a different
00:28:15
◼
►
phase. And if you're a Wall Street investor looking for massive growth, the iPhone is
00:28:19
◼
►
not going to give it to you, I think, anymore. It'll still give you growth and Apple will
00:28:23
◼
►
still have growth in other places. And Apple, actually, they spent a lot of time talking
00:28:26
◼
►
about, which we can talk about, little things in other places that can provide growth. But
00:28:32
◼
►
as the main iPhone, I think it's going to be an annuity, you know, where it's going
00:28:37
◼
►
to be throwing off $40 billion a year to Apple for many, many years to come, and that's
00:28:46
◼
►
an enormous amount of money. But is it going to suddenly next year throw off $60 or $70
00:28:52
◼
►
billion? Probably not. You know, probably it'll be $39 billion and then $40 billion
00:28:58
◼
►
and then $41 billion, and it's slow growth. And that's just how it is, because like
00:29:04
◼
►
Like you said, everybody's got one, so we're no longer in that phase where, you know, ten
00:29:09
◼
►
people stand in a room and only one has a smartphone.
00:29:11
◼
►
Now we're at the place where ten people stand in a room and all ten have a smartphone, and
00:29:15
◼
►
one of them may have a second smartphone in their back pocket.
00:29:18
◼
►
Yeah, I think we've seen, I mean, looking at the charts, I think we've seen the end
00:29:22
◼
►
of where there are ten million more iPhones sold every quarter on quarter.
00:29:28
◼
►
I think we may be at the end of that period of time.
00:29:31
◼
►
But the idea of the news stories that I've seen, for some reason the BBC really have
00:29:37
◼
►
it out for Apple right now and have been publishing story after story about the fact that the
00:29:43
◼
►
company's about to fail because of this.
00:29:45
◼
►
I'm seeing a lot of this stuff around the internet and it's a very peculiar thing.
00:29:48
◼
►
And I wonder why people write it because I think anybody who understands technology,
00:29:53
◼
►
which you have to to get a job at these publications, surely understands that if they continue to
00:29:59
◼
►
sell even 60 or 50 million of these every quarter. They're around for a very long time.
00:30:05
◼
►
And plus Apple have an ungodly amount of money in the bank. What are they up to now?
00:30:10
◼
►
>> I have actually lost count. I need to look it up. It's an enormous amount of cash in
00:30:16
◼
►
the bank and in short-term annuities and things like that. I think, look, Apple doesn't need
00:30:22
◼
►
defending. It's a big company. It's one of the biggest companies in the world. It had
00:30:27
◼
►
the most successful quarter of any company ever, potentially, this last quarter. But
00:30:33
◼
►
I will say this, there are people who've never understood Apple, who don't like Apple, and
00:30:39
◼
►
the moment that there's perceived weakness, they will get the knives out. That's just
00:30:42
◼
►
how it is. That's just how it is. And people in the technology industry and, well, first
00:30:47
◼
►
off, in journalism, and I will say this, Myke, you mentioned, I mean, at BBC, you don't think
00:30:51
◼
►
about it so much, but in British journalism, especially, if there's anybody successful
00:30:56
◼
►
who shows a sign of weakness, the knives come out. That's like, British journalism especially
00:31:01
◼
►
loves destroying anybody who is perceived as riding high. And journalism in general
00:31:06
◼
►
kind of does that, but especially in the UK. We love tragedy. Yeah, and also taking people
00:31:12
◼
►
down, right? Taking, "Oh, you think you're so great. You're not. We're going to take
00:31:15
◼
►
you down." So there's that. And then in technology too, there's a lot of people who just have
00:31:19
◼
►
never liked Apple, whether they never liked their products. They're always the people
00:31:25
◼
►
who feel like Apple's—who never got it, right? They feel like Apple's products are
00:31:28
◼
►
too expensive and they aren't any better than the competition. And you know, what can
00:31:32
◼
►
you say to people like that? Anybody who is listening to this show probably has had that
00:31:36
◼
►
experience with at least one, if not many, Apple products where they've said, "This
00:31:39
◼
►
is way better than the competition and that's why I buy Apple products." But some people
00:31:43
◼
►
don't feel that way. Some people look at an Android phone or an Android tablet or a
00:31:46
◼
►
PC running Windows and say, "It's fine. It's the same." And for those people, Apple's
00:31:52
◼
►
makes no sense and is frustrating and has to be explained by everybody who does see
00:32:00
◼
►
value in Apple products being dumb or confused or tricked. And for people with that worldview,
00:32:06
◼
►
any sign of weakness for Apple is an opportunity to get the knives out. So that's what we're
00:32:11
◼
►
seeing. And it's ignorance because the fact is, yes, if Apple stops selling products today,
00:32:15
◼
►
it could continue spending money at its current rate for, I forget what it would be now, but
00:32:19
◼
►
last time I checked it was like 10 or 20 years. So Apple's not going away. In fact, Apple
00:32:25
◼
►
has one of the most profitable, successful products in the world right now, and it will
00:32:30
◼
►
continue to be so. I think the real questions are what happens with growth? Where do they
00:32:36
◼
►
get growth? And the answer there is, you know, they talked about services. I would argue
00:32:41
◼
►
something like the Apple Watch and other things like that that are about selling more products
00:32:46
◼
►
to existing customers in the ecosystem is part of it. And then when they talk about
00:32:52
◼
►
VR, when they talk about a car, that's Apple using its huge amount of cash and its knowledge
00:32:58
◼
►
of manufacturing and software and all these other bits of expertise they've got to kind
00:33:02
◼
►
of poke around and find other categories where they think they might be able to do something.
00:33:07
◼
►
And if any of those hits, there's your growth. The growth's coming from the car.
00:33:10
◼
►
Gregor: To find the next iPhone, right? That's what it's all about.
00:33:12
◼
►
David: I don't think there's ever going to be a next iPhone or at least not for...
00:33:15
◼
►
Maybe Apple will be involved in the next iPhone in 10 or 20 years, the next smartphone, right?
00:33:19
◼
►
But I think even something like a car, unless Apple comes in and takes 20% of the car industry
00:33:24
◼
►
market, which is unlikely.
00:33:28
◼
►
These guys aren't just going to walk in here and make a car, are they?
00:33:31
◼
►
Yeah, well, I mean, at this point, Apple, I feel like Apple could just buy a car maker
00:33:35
◼
►
if they really wanted to, but they don't want to.
00:33:37
◼
►
That's the thing, is that there's no point.
00:33:39
◼
►
So I don't know, but that's what they're doing when they're doing all this R&D, is that's
00:33:42
◼
►
where they're looking for growth, and that's where they're looking for the future. Because
00:33:45
◼
►
what they don't want to have happen is the next smartphone to happen and then be flat-footed
00:33:50
◼
►
and miss it, and that's the end, right? They don't want that. And they don't have to—I
00:33:55
◼
►
mean, that's why they've got, you know, people can say—and I've heard some people
00:33:59
◼
►
say that Apple should stick to its knitting and focus, not get distracted by these other
00:34:05
◼
►
things. But if you're Tim Cook and the board, you do need to be looking for growth. That
00:34:11
◼
►
sort of how public companies work. And so they are doing that. And then in the meantime,
00:34:18
◼
►
they're taking some percentage of their cash, and they're doing dividends, and they're doing
00:34:22
◼
►
stock buybacks. So they're basically kind of rewarding their investors. And I think that's
00:34:28
◼
►
a smart move for them too, just to, you know, a little bit of the financial thing. Because,
00:34:33
◼
►
you know, they are a public company, they have investors, the investors want growth.
00:34:36
◼
►
And I think that's what the car and the VR and whatever else might be going on. We haven't
00:34:41
◼
►
even talked about Tim Cook's little coy VR mention, but…
00:34:45
◼
►
Yeah, that was like when he spoke about the watch, right, like a watch. Remember the D
00:34:51
◼
►
conference where he was talking about watches?
00:34:53
◼
►
Yeah, that the wrist is an area of interest.
00:34:58
◼
►
So's your eyes.
00:35:00
◼
►
Just one last note…
00:35:01
◼
►
That sounds like an insult.
00:35:02
◼
►
So's your eyes.
00:35:03
◼
►
A British insult.
00:35:04
◼
►
Yeah, hand to your face. Just one last note on Wall Street and that kind of world. I think
00:35:10
◼
►
I think at this point it's kind of fruitless to get annoyed.
00:35:15
◼
►
Every time the stock goes down, we all get annoyed.
00:35:18
◼
►
Like, "You're so stupid, you know, still making so much money."
00:35:21
◼
►
The system works as it works, right?
00:35:23
◼
►
And the system looks for growth.
00:35:25
◼
►
Because you want to invest in things that are going to make you more money.
00:35:29
◼
►
If growth is slowing down, in theory the stock should fall in line with that.
00:35:34
◼
►
Because all you're doing is putting money in to receive the same money if the company's
00:35:39
◼
►
not growing, right? At a very basic level, it does make sense.
00:35:46
◼
►
Also—and this is the thing that I've tried to explain—even some very smart people who
00:35:51
◼
►
I know and like and I've seen on Twitter complain about this over the years, I try
00:35:55
◼
►
to explain it to them too. It's like, expectation is built into the stock price. That's the
00:36:02
◼
►
other thing about it. And somebody I heard describe this—maybe it was on ATP last week—I
00:36:09
◼
►
about how expectation is built in and investing is gambling, right? It's speculation. It is
00:36:18
◼
►
literally speculation. It is somebody saying, "I think this is going to be worth more."
00:36:26
◼
►
That's what it is. And so as a result, when like Apple has a record quarter, let's say,
00:36:34
◼
►
not with this quarter where there's the issue of the future, but like a couple of years
00:36:37
◼
►
ago and they would release record results and the price would go down, the stock price,
00:36:42
◼
►
and people would complain. The reason it went down is because everybody who believed Apple
00:36:47
◼
►
was going to do great had already bought in and believed it actually a little bit greater
00:36:52
◼
►
than it did. And so once the truth came out, everybody recalibrated and the stock went
00:36:58
◼
►
down. I mean, that is a simplification of it, but it's something that doesn't make
00:37:02
◼
►
sense if you're not thinking in those terms. It's a very different kind of way of thinking
00:37:06
◼
►
of it. So you think, "Hey, this did great. The stock should go up." And the answer is
00:37:11
◼
►
it already went up because people assumed it was going to do great or predicted it was
00:37:15
◼
►
going to do great. And now it's going down because some other people are predicting that
00:37:19
◼
►
it will do less great or it's not as great as they thought. And it's counterintuitive
00:37:24
◼
►
if you're just a regular person to think, you know, shouldn't the more money you make,
00:37:28
◼
►
the higher your stock price be. And it kind of doesn't work like that, which is weird.
00:37:32
◼
►
And Apple stock is not always, given its ratio and all sorts of other like financial things,
00:37:38
◼
►
an argument can be made that Apple stock has often been underpriced and that the people
00:37:44
◼
►
who invest in Apple often don't really understand how its business works because they try to
00:37:49
◼
►
find analogs in other companies and I'm not sure there's a good one. So we could
00:37:55
◼
►
argue that Apple stock price movements are sometimes illogical, but the, you know, the
00:38:00
◼
►
frustration people feel about the stock price or about analysts beating on Apple because
00:38:03
◼
►
they're afraid of a loss of growth, I think is mostly because it's just a cultural disconnect.
00:38:09
◼
►
Like the way that investors view the world is not the way that we do. Forgive me if I've
00:38:14
◼
►
told this story before, but the CEO of IDG once in a meeting we were in, we talked about
00:38:19
◼
►
how we were a profitable company. This was years ago, this was many years ago. We were
00:38:25
◼
►
a profitable company, we had profit margins of, you know, I forget what it was, you know,
00:38:30
◼
►
5% profit margins or something like that. And basically what they said is, "Your profit
00:38:35
◼
►
margins need to be greater. You need to make more money." And as an editor, I thought,
00:38:39
◼
►
"Well, wait a second. We're making money. Isn't that the point of a business is to
00:38:42
◼
►
make money?" And what he said to me was, "I could take the money that I'm investing
00:38:46
◼
►
in you guys right now and put it in the bank and make more money. And certainly I could
00:38:51
◼
►
put it in the stock market and make more money. And that was the moment where I realized,
00:38:56
◼
►
ah, we are a financial instrument for our investors, right? They're not here to build
00:39:02
◼
►
a sustainable business that throws off profits. They're here to put money in and get a return
00:39:08
◼
►
on their investment greater than they could get somewhere else. And a little return is
00:39:12
◼
►
not good enough for them because they can get more elsewhere. Why are they investing
00:39:16
◼
►
in us? And that is the cultural disconnect. And that's just the way the world works.
00:39:20
◼
►
you said, it's just the way it is. And the sooner you understand it, the sooner you can
00:39:26
◼
►
get over the frustration about it and move on to something else. At some point I finally
00:39:30
◼
►
just got over it. It's like, "Look, the stock's going to do what it's going to do. I'm glad
00:39:33
◼
►
I don't write about stocks for a living."
00:39:35
◼
►
All right, iPad. So last week in our Ask Upgrade segment, we kind of got into talking about
00:39:41
◼
►
this and saying what we thought could happen with the iPad. And I think that one point
00:39:48
◼
►
that I made was that if iPad sales aren't up, it's dead. It's effectively what I said.
00:39:54
◼
►
And one of my sightings for this was the iPad Pro.
00:39:59
◼
►
You were bullish.
00:40:00
◼
►
And I know that a lot of people, I was very bullish. A lot of people have said this, that
00:40:05
◼
►
the iPad Pro was too late in the quarter. I think that that's just like a scapegoat
00:40:10
◼
►
response for the fact that the iPad is down because not only is it down, it is 25% down
00:40:17
◼
►
year on year.
00:40:18
◼
►
which is really, really bad. And for me, the idea of the iPad Pro was too late or they
00:40:25
◼
►
didn't have the iPad Air, I just don't think that they're compelling enough reasons to
00:40:30
◼
►
tell me that it would have been 26% up. I just don't think that shaving a quarter off
00:40:40
◼
►
year over year would have been saved by those two products when it was on a downward trajectory
00:40:45
◼
►
I see what you're saying. And I know that you're skeptical of this, but it is still
00:40:53
◼
►
throwing off $20 billion a year so far, although at this rate, it will be less as it goes.
00:41:00
◼
►
And I think the question is, we're looking at it losing because there was this initial
00:41:06
◼
►
run-up of enthusiasm about it. Instead of a slow build, there was a spike and then a
00:41:12
◼
►
drop off. So I think the question is wherever it finds it, if it finds it at all, or if
00:41:20
◼
►
iPad sales just continue to crumble and nobody buys iPads because it turns out nobody likes
00:41:23
◼
►
them. According to Apple, people who have iPads use them and like them, and that's
00:41:28
◼
►
not the issue here. So I would say I think some of it gets lost in the initial enthusiasm
00:41:35
◼
►
for the iPad, that the sales were big and now they're still coming down, and that
00:41:39
◼
►
at some point I do actually think they will stabilize but it's going to be at a level
00:41:44
◼
►
that is not at all what we thought this this business was going to be for Apple and in
00:41:48
◼
►
general and and I think that it's easy to get frustrated because everybody thought this
00:41:55
◼
►
was a 40 billion dollar a year business and maybe it's a 10 billion dollar a year business
00:42:00
◼
►
which is good but it's not what anybody thought about it so I just I just wanted to say that
00:42:06
◼
►
that I think—I don't think this is a case, talking to people, hearing what Apple says
00:42:11
◼
►
about this—I don't think this is a case where people are turned off of the iPad. I
00:42:15
◼
►
think it's a case where we got a lot—nobody had an iPad and a whole lot of people bought
00:42:20
◼
►
an iPad, and now we're at the point where some percentage of them are going to keep
00:42:25
◼
►
buying iPads, but we're just not there yet. So rather than—this would be a very different
00:42:29
◼
►
story if it just took—as I think we all thought in 2010 when it got announced—that
00:42:33
◼
►
just took five years for people to understand what the iPad was for. Instead, everybody
00:42:38
◼
►
was like, "All right, let's go buy one." And now the numbers are coming down because
00:42:43
◼
►
that was not realistic, that people are not going to buy iPads at that level. But I don't
00:42:48
◼
►
think it's going to just go down to nothing. I think it is going to find a level and then
00:42:51
◼
►
probably grow from there. But boy, you know, we keep drawing a line and you said this,
00:42:58
◼
►
we keep drawing a line and saying, "This is the level," and then waiting a quarter
00:43:01
◼
►
and going, "Well, maybe this is the level." And the level keeps dropping. There's no
00:43:06
◼
►
doubt about it. The level keeps dropping.
00:43:09
◼
►
So I want to—I have a lot about—I have a lot of thoughts about this, and I need to
00:43:14
◼
►
preface all of this by saying this is coming from a person who now, in 2016, their favorite
00:43:21
◼
►
way of doing any kind of computing is from an iPad. You know, I want to do all of the
00:43:25
◼
►
work from an iPad.
00:43:26
◼
►
You're not a hater.
00:43:27
◼
►
I am a lover of the iPad in a big way.
00:43:31
◼
►
So you mentioned about the $20 billion a year business, right?
00:43:35
◼
►
The $20 billion a year business thing is something I see quite a lot.
00:43:42
◼
►
And also what follows that usually is this is bigger than so many companies, the iPad
00:43:46
◼
►
would be in the Fortune 500 on its own.
00:43:49
◼
►
I understand all of that.
00:43:51
◼
►
But the next part of that story that never follows is if this was a company that made
00:43:57
◼
►
tablets. A fortune 500 company that's tablet incorporated. Tablet incorporated
00:44:02
◼
►
and every year they drop by a quarter we would be saying that they were dead and
00:44:07
◼
►
spiraling the drain. Whatever it is 10 8 10 straight quarters of year-over-year
00:44:12
◼
►
sales drops yeah. We would be saying this company is dying. That CEO would have
00:44:18
◼
►
been replaced by the board right yeah of tablet incorporated. This is the thing
00:44:22
◼
►
right so when you look at it inside of Apple you don't say that because the
00:44:26
◼
►
the company's fine, it's just this one product.
00:44:28
◼
►
But it annoys me when people say,
00:44:30
◼
►
you shouldn't say these things about the iPad failing
00:44:33
◼
►
because it would be its own business.
00:44:35
◼
►
Because if it was its own business,
00:44:36
◼
►
that business wouldn't be around anymore
00:44:38
◼
►
because its stock would be worth nothing.
00:44:41
◼
►
Just nothing, right?
00:44:42
◼
►
Because Apple's is dropping because they are not gonna have
00:44:47
◼
►
another $70 billion quarter or whatever,
00:44:49
◼
►
you know, whatever the thing is in the next one,
00:44:53
◼
►
but it's still gonna be tens of billions.
00:44:54
◼
►
but this line is down a 25%.
00:44:58
◼
►
It falls and falls and falls.
00:45:00
◼
►
And then the other one is like the refresh cycle thing.
00:45:03
◼
►
That's the other thing that we all fall on, right?
00:45:05
◼
►
Like the refresh cycle's longer, that kind of thing.
00:45:08
◼
►
And we don't know the line yet, as you said.
00:45:10
◼
►
I think all of these are optimistic views.
00:45:13
◼
►
Like what if it's not about the refresh cycle at all?
00:45:15
◼
►
It's just that people buy them once
00:45:18
◼
►
and then decide they don't want them.
00:45:19
◼
►
- I think that is valid.
00:45:23
◼
►
I think that given, I'm sort of, I'm willing to take Apple at its word to a certain degree
00:45:33
◼
►
that their analysis of this suggests that people love their iPads.
00:45:39
◼
►
Oh yeah, I agree with that.
00:45:40
◼
►
And that people use them and are satisfied with them.
00:45:43
◼
►
And so, but this is the question, right, is what percentage of the iPad user base is an
00:45:51
◼
►
active engaged iPad user who will buy a new iPad at some point and what percentage.
00:45:56
◼
►
Is doesn't really need it.
00:45:59
◼
►
Do you know they, they, they thought they wanted it, but they don't really want it.
00:46:02
◼
►
And that I think that's the open question.
00:46:05
◼
►
I, I, I, we don't know.
00:46:08
◼
►
I believe that there is a level that the iPad will reach that is it's sort of
00:46:13
◼
►
replacement level and, and that's when it kind of hits the bottom.
00:46:17
◼
►
And then from there, I think it will actually grow slowly.
00:46:21
◼
►
but where that is I don't know I mean and I think that's the the the skeptic
00:46:29
◼
►
would say exactly what you said which is you know well what if it's not what if
00:46:35
◼
►
this is a product that people have rejected maybe maybe I think certainly
00:46:39
◼
►
some percentage of them have rejected I don't buy the argument that the that you
00:46:43
◼
►
know ninety percent of iPad buyers love it and they're all going to buy a new
00:46:46
◼
►
iPad at some point but it's gonna be stretched out over the next five years I
00:46:50
◼
►
I don't think that's true.
00:46:51
◼
►
There's a percentage of people who are like,
00:46:52
◼
►
"Yeah, I can just use my smartphone or my laptop is fine."
00:46:55
◼
►
Or, "I don't love the iPad enough
00:46:57
◼
►
"to spend another $500 on a new iPad."
00:47:00
◼
►
I do think that there is a certain percentage
00:47:02
◼
►
that will go away.
00:47:02
◼
►
And that's the problem with that big sales spike
00:47:05
◼
►
the first couple of years of the iPad
00:47:06
◼
►
is we kinda don't know.
00:47:08
◼
►
This isn't a slow build.
00:47:11
◼
►
It's a lot harder to guess where the free fall stops.
00:47:14
◼
►
- 'Cause nothing happened either, right?
00:47:16
◼
►
Like it was going up, up, up, up, up,
00:47:18
◼
►
then just started to go down.
00:47:20
◼
►
And, but there was nothing that happened, right?
00:47:22
◼
►
In that period of time, which would suggest why.
00:47:26
◼
►
It just did. - I mean, the iPad Air
00:47:28
◼
►
came out and maybe, yeah.
00:47:32
◼
►
I mean, there's nothing that you could point at and say,
00:47:35
◼
►
"Aha, that's the moment that the iPad lost its thing."
00:47:39
◼
►
- That was when they screwed up the iPad, right?
00:47:41
◼
►
'Cause there was never a thing.
00:47:42
◼
►
Like, it's the product has had the same iteration
00:47:45
◼
►
as the iPhone, right?
00:47:46
◼
►
- Although, I would make the argument
00:47:48
◼
►
that what screwed up the iPad to a certain degree
00:47:51
◼
►
is that initial success was so great
00:47:53
◼
►
that it gave Apple no reason to really invest,
00:47:57
◼
►
and we've talked about this in previous shows,
00:47:59
◼
►
really invest in ways of differentiating the iPad.
00:48:01
◼
►
And I think it's funny listening to Marco,
00:48:05
◼
►
especially on ATP the last few weeks
00:48:07
◼
►
and the last few months talking about threats for Apple,
00:48:11
◼
►
the one that I keep coming back to,
00:48:12
◼
►
and I think the iPad is a great example,
00:48:14
◼
►
which is when everything's going great,
00:48:16
◼
►
Apple has no reason to try to fix something if Apple thinks that what they're doing is
00:48:22
◼
►
great. And you know, the corporate culture is supposed to be replace your great thing
00:48:27
◼
►
with an even greater thing and just don't rest and nothing's ever good enough. But I
00:48:32
◼
►
think the iPad is a great example, and the App Store is another good example of this,
00:48:36
◼
►
right? Of Apple saying, "Hey, it's totally great," and believing their own PR a little
00:48:41
◼
►
too much. And with the iPad, like the initial numbers were so great, why do we need to invest
00:48:45
◼
►
in making the iPad have features that the iPhone doesn't. The iPhone is much bigger
00:48:49
◼
►
than the iPad. The iPad's doing fine. We're just not going to bother." And it took them,
00:48:53
◼
►
what, four or five years before they were like, "Oh, this is a problem. Maybe we shouldn't
00:48:57
◼
►
invest more in software features for the iPad and hardware features for the iPad." It took
00:49:02
◼
►
them too long. And I think that's that. So how did they screw up the iPad? In some ways,
00:49:07
◼
►
I think it did so well so soon, more success than any of us really thought it would have,
00:49:13
◼
►
it took the pressure off.
00:49:19
◼
►
I struggle with all of this. I do. I just don't know if there are any things like that
00:49:26
◼
►
where it's like, "Oh, software will fix it." Because the software has made it a lot better,
00:49:29
◼
►
but I just don't see at this point that there is a magical fix to get it back up to 25 million
00:49:37
◼
►
a quarter or something like that anymore.
00:49:38
◼
►
Definitely not. I think 25 million, you know, that's when you talk about like five years
00:49:44
◼
►
from now maybe they get back up there.
00:49:45
◼
►
Yeah, I really think that what we're looking at and where we'll end up being is that it's
00:49:51
◼
►
going to keep going down for another couple of years and then they'll settle into like
00:49:55
◼
►
10 million a quarter, you know, as the high and then it will maybe start to creep back
00:50:00
◼
►
up again. I mean, I look at the Mac charts and that's what I think this is going to be.
00:50:05
◼
►
Yeah, this is the initial spike of people who are unlike most tech products that take
00:50:09
◼
►
time to build. This was an initial enthusiasm because of the iPhone, really. People were
00:50:15
◼
►
like, "Yeah, iPad. It's like the iPhone. It's the next big thing." There's that spike of
00:50:19
◼
►
enthusiasm that kind of makes it confusing and messes up all your graphs, but that at
00:50:23
◼
►
some point it will just settle. And it's all a matter of taking—if we were investors
00:50:28
◼
►
in fictional tablet corporation, it would all be taking bets about where we think that
00:50:33
◼
►
line is going to go and you know what what is the level and what is the profit
00:50:37
◼
►
of that product line. This is hard for me too because like you the iPad is used
00:50:43
◼
►
constantly in in my house. I have the iPad Pro now and I use it all the time
00:50:48
◼
►
and my wife has an iPad Air 2 and she uses it all the time and my son has my
00:50:53
◼
►
old iPad Mini 2 and uses it all the time. So three of the four people in our
00:51:01
◼
►
house are avid iPad users. And you know, when my wife goes on the laptop, it is, I noticed,
00:51:09
◼
►
like it is rare. She does certain kinds of things on the laptop, but most of the time
00:51:14
◼
►
she's just got the iPad. And, and you know, I am very rarely bring the laptop out of the
00:51:18
◼
►
office here. I generally am using the iPad. So for me, it's hard because I can see the
00:51:24
◼
►
use cases and why this is a great product. And so what I have to try to do is imagine
00:51:29
◼
►
that for a lot of people, they don't need that third product, right? They need to have
00:51:34
◼
►
a laptop because of work or whatever, and that's not going away as fast as maybe people
00:51:39
◼
►
thought. And everybody needs to have their smartphone. And so, you know, you've got an
00:51:44
◼
►
iPad and your kids use it to watch videos, and as John Syracuse said the other week on
00:51:50
◼
►
ATP, for a lot of uses of the iPad, you could just buy one of those $50 Amazon tablets and
00:51:57
◼
►
would be fine because all it's doing is playing video. So being the lord of the premium tablet
00:52:02
◼
►
market, how big is that market? And we just don't know, but it's hard for me to see it because
00:52:08
◼
►
we use them and we love them. So I firmly believe this is a good product that has a market, but yeah,
00:52:15
◼
►
what's that market? We're still drawing those lines and hoping, you know, maybe this is the
00:52:19
◼
►
bottom. And you've gone from being sunny to being so dark, but I'd say I think it's worth
00:52:25
◼
►
asking yourself, at what point do you say, you know, "I can't just keep drawing the
00:52:31
◼
►
line and saying 'this time for sure'. Maybe it's time for us to just expect that it's
00:52:36
◼
►
got a long ways to go before it hits bottom."
00:52:38
◼
►
Yeah, I mean, I look at the iPad now and I'm like, "I see this is the future of computing,
00:52:46
◼
►
but not like this." The Apple iPad, as it is today, whatever this device is, whatever
00:52:53
◼
►
it will be for the next couple of years is not the thing, but it's closer to whatever
00:52:59
◼
►
the next personal computer revolution is than the Mac that I'm looking at right now. That
00:53:05
◼
►
is closer to it, but it is not the thing.
00:53:08
◼
►
Well, I occasionally have those moments where I think that, I mean, I think Apple's vision
00:53:14
◼
►
is that it's sinking and, you know, all your data is kind of migrating from your phone
00:53:19
◼
►
and that in the long run your tablet is kind of your more comfortable lean back screen
00:53:25
◼
►
that you use when you're, you know, that gives you a view into the same stuff as your phone.
00:53:30
◼
►
But you know, is that, I don't know, it's also, let's say Apple's trying everything,
00:53:36
◼
►
right? Apple's got the iPad, they've also got the MacBook, which is what if we applied
00:53:40
◼
►
that iPad technology to a more traditional laptop? How would people react to that? And
00:53:46
◼
►
then they've got the iPhone. I think one of the advantages Apple has here is they don't
00:53:50
◼
►
need to have—they're not tablet incorporated, right? They can have the tablet and they can
00:53:55
◼
►
have the laptop and they can have the other laptop and they can have the phone large and
00:54:00
◼
►
small and smaller. And part of that is that they have a varied product line and part of
00:54:06
◼
►
that is they can find out what works and they can try stuff and see.
00:54:09
◼
►
And it still makes enough money, right? Like even with it falling, it's still making enough
00:54:14
◼
►
money, if the Mac at 5 million units a quarter is making enough money, the iPads are surely
00:54:19
◼
►
making enough money, right? So you can keep going with it and keep trying to find it,
00:54:24
◼
►
but I think we all just need to accept that this product is going to keep falling for
00:54:29
◼
►
a way more, I think at least another year, it's going to keep dropping and then it will
00:54:35
◼
►
stabilize. That's kind of the way that I look at it and you need to disassociate the product
00:54:42
◼
►
itself I think because the iPad now is better than it's ever been. It's better than it was
00:54:47
◼
►
in Q1 2014. It really is. And we just have to understand and hope that Apple's going
00:54:56
◼
►
to continue to show the dedication to the platform that they showed of iOS 9 and that
00:55:02
◼
►
they're going to keep developing and working on it and eventually I think that whatever
00:55:07
◼
►
the next thing is that comes after the iPad, we'll learn a lot from the iPad and have a
00:55:13
◼
►
much brighter success and a much brighter future than this product does. Because I really
00:55:18
◼
►
think that now we're at a point where a lot of the excuses that we've been telling ourselves
00:55:23
◼
►
since 2014 don't work anymore about why this product isn't working. Because it's just a
00:55:31
◼
►
sort of state now where it just, none of those things make sense to me anymore I don't think.
00:55:36
◼
►
Well my only question here is, although it was too late, is Apple now, you know, does
00:55:45
◼
►
Apple now have an understanding that the iPad needs to be more than the iPhone? And will
00:55:51
◼
►
they invest the effort in continuing that? And although I don't believe this, I have
00:55:59
◼
►
heard from people, not—these aren't sources, just, you know, readers and listeners—speculating
00:56:04
◼
►
about this thing that we've talked about where there's iOS and TVOS and watchOS, and so would
00:56:10
◼
►
there not be macOS, right? Which I think is the way to go. I've had some people say, "Well,
00:56:17
◼
►
maybe it should be PhoneOS and PadOS." And I think that's unlikely, because I think the
00:56:24
◼
►
iPad is very clearly the same thing as the iPhone in many ways. And yet, you know, Apple
00:56:32
◼
►
TV and the Apple Watch are basically running iOS, but they are no longer considered that.
00:56:37
◼
►
And I have my moments where I think, at some point, would it be better for the iPad as
00:56:42
◼
►
a product if it wasn't iOS anymore, and that they were able to diverge a little bit more?
00:56:50
◼
►
Unfortunately, right now, I feel like the only reason that the iPad has the viability
00:56:56
◼
►
that it does is because it is part of the same ecosystem as the iPhone. And so it benefits
00:57:02
◼
►
like you're an app developer and you're developing iPhone apps and you're like, yeah, okay, I'll
00:57:07
◼
►
do what's necessary to have it also run on the iPad. And so the iPad benefits from that.
00:57:12
◼
►
I understand where you're coming from, but you know this, right? Like if you break the
00:57:18
◼
►
iPad out, there are no apps. It goes the way a Windows phone.
00:57:23
◼
►
That's exactly right.
00:57:24
◼
►
Because it's hard enough, right, these days, for some developers, I think, to consider
00:57:30
◼
►
Like, as we record today, the airmail for iPhone has come out, and that's all it's on.
00:57:37
◼
►
And they're saying that they're considering iPad and working on iPad, but there is no
00:57:44
◼
►
So I feel like the path forward for the iPad is basically what Apple is already doing.
00:57:48
◼
►
And so that's the one I would say ray of hope here about this, is Apple seems to have figured
00:57:54
◼
►
out now that the iPad needs to be more than the iPhone and it needs to do other things
00:57:58
◼
►
that are fitting for the iPad as a product. And honestly, I don't feel as somebody who's
00:58:03
◼
►
used the iPad since day one, there were many years where it felt like after the iPad launched,
00:58:09
◼
►
pretty much the iPad was along for the ride with the iPhone. And it seems like they've
00:58:13
◼
►
changed the philosophy in the last year or two to be like, all right, we're going to
00:58:19
◼
►
take more care. And I think that's one way that you make the iPad a better product and
00:58:24
◼
►
and have the potential for it to turn into a more viable thing that's like that next
00:58:30
◼
►
thing that you're talking about, rather than having to completely revisit the product,
00:58:35
◼
►
would be if Apple spends five years where every iOS update has major improvements for
00:58:41
◼
►
the iPad, the iPad could get somewhere where people don't look at it and say, "Yeah,
00:58:47
◼
►
I guess it's fine," and say, "Oh, I have to have one of those." But they're
00:58:53
◼
►
late to the party because they haven't really done that until the last year or two.
00:58:59
◼
►
WWDC, iOS 10, that holds a lot of answers for me as to where this thing could potentially
00:59:07
◼
►
Because the other alternative is for them to look at iPad sales and say, "You know what?
00:59:09
◼
►
It's not worth it to invest all of these engineering resources on the iPad."
00:59:14
◼
►
And if they go back to the old way, which is, "Really, let's just focus on the iPhone
00:59:17
◼
►
and the iPad will come along for the ride and it'll be whatever it'll be," that'll be your
00:59:21
◼
►
signed that, you know, I think that Apple, even Apple has said, you know, it's not worth
00:59:27
◼
►
the investment. And I hope that doesn't happen.
00:59:29
◼
►
I remain confident because you could have made this assumption and that decision before
00:59:34
◼
►
iOS 9 and the iPad Pro, but they went ahead and did them anyway. You know, you could have
00:59:39
◼
►
looked at the sales numbers before either of those things went into development and
00:59:42
◼
►
decided that it wasn't worth it. Yeah, no, and they rededicated themselves
00:59:46
◼
►
to making it a great product, which, you know, we can argue about, did they, should they
00:59:49
◼
►
have done that from the beginning, but there definitely seems to be within Apple now, based
00:59:54
◼
►
on their output, a desire to make the iPad much more than it was. And they got a lot
01:00:00
◼
►
of work left to do, but they seem to be moving on it, and that's great because that's
01:00:04
◼
►
what they have to do.
01:00:06
◼
►
It was hidden, you know. It was hidden before this, I think. You know, when they were just
01:00:10
◼
►
having the iPad follow along with the iPhone, the iPad sales were not astronomical, but
01:00:15
◼
►
they were going up. So why would you have done it any differently? And then it was too
01:00:22
◼
►
Should we do some Ask Upgrade?
01:00:23
◼
►
I think it's a great idea.
01:00:25
◼
►
This week's episode of Upgrade and the Ask Upgrade segment is brought to you by our
01:00:29
◼
►
friends Squarespace.
01:00:30
◼
►
You can start booting your own website today at squarespace.com and you'll want to use
01:00:34
◼
►
the offer code upgrade at checkout because not only will that show your support for this
01:00:38
◼
►
show, it'll also get you 10% off Squarespace.
01:00:42
◼
►
Build it beautiful.
01:00:43
◼
►
When it comes to giving a place for yourself on the internet, I believe that Squarespace is
01:00:47
◼
►
somewhere that you should be checking out for yourself.
01:00:49
◼
►
I'm recommending to others as well because Squarespace give you all of the powerful features
01:00:54
◼
►
you're going to want when it comes to building your own website or you know, building your
01:00:57
◼
►
own portfolio or store, band page, restaurant page, business page, whatever it is you want
01:01:02
◼
►
to build. But they also make sure that they take care of all of the things that you maybe
01:01:06
◼
►
don't want to do or don't know how to do like taking care of hosting and scaling, giving
01:01:11
◼
►
support and security updates and also incredibly powerful tools which are always changing over
01:01:16
◼
►
time and getting more and more powerful, more and more easy to use.
01:01:20
◼
►
They have great WYSIWYG page building tools, you're able to put a site together regardless
01:01:24
◼
►
of your skill level, no coding experience required, it's a lot of drag and drop stuff,
01:01:28
◼
►
it's really really easy to do.
01:01:30
◼
►
Really customizable as well, they have these beautiful templates that you can start with
01:01:34
◼
►
and you can make some great changes to them around typography and colour to really make
01:01:38
◼
►
them feel like a place that is your own on the internet.
01:01:41
◼
►
They all feature responsive design, they look great on all sizes of device.
01:01:44
◼
►
Squarespace is trusted by millions of people around the world because of these features
01:01:48
◼
►
and because they ensure security and stability with their state of the art technology that
01:01:52
◼
►
they use to power every single one of these millions of websites that they host for their
01:01:58
◼
►
They have 24/7 support with live chat and email.
01:02:00
◼
►
This is good for you if you need help but also good if you're introducing somebody else
01:02:04
◼
►
to Squarespace.
01:02:05
◼
►
You can get them set up and then let Squarespace's great support team help that person with any
01:02:09
◼
►
problems and questions that they may have because quite fundamentally as well they know
01:02:13
◼
►
squarespace better than you do most likely right so they're gonna be able to
01:02:16
◼
►
help whoever issue gets set up they have their commerce platform this is something
01:02:19
◼
►
that we use at real AFM we use squarespace for our blog we use
01:02:22
◼
►
squarespace for our store I know Brad Dowdy hosted a pen addict he has an
01:02:26
◼
►
entire business that he runs on squarespace which is not code they build
01:02:30
◼
►
and produce their own pen cases and paraphernalia like that they use
01:02:34
◼
►
squarespace commerce to run their business squarespace have a dev platform
01:02:38
◼
►
so you can tinker with the code if it's something you do know how to do and make
01:02:42
◼
►
some little changes if that's something you want.
01:03:11
◼
►
OK, so our first Ask Upgrade question this week comes from John. John would like to know,
01:03:19
◼
►
do you think there will be an updated Apple TV if Apple do announce a streaming service
01:03:24
◼
►
in September of this year that would be needed to take advantage of it?
01:03:28
◼
►
I don't. I think we'll be living with the fourth gen Apple TV for a while.
01:03:33
◼
►
Which is what you want, right? Because you don't want to have to buy new hardware. I
01:03:36
◼
►
mean, and also the rumours around the release time was that this was the hardware that was
01:03:40
◼
►
supposed to run that, but it just wasn't ready.
01:03:43
◼
►
Yeah, the only caveat I'll say is I think at some point they will do a 4K-capable Apple
01:03:47
◼
►
TV, and that might happen this fall, or it might be later, but I think at some point
01:03:52
◼
►
they'll do it just because they have some competition that can do it, and there aren't
01:03:57
◼
►
a lot of 4K video sources, or Ultra HD is really what it is. Joe Steele's in the chat
01:04:01
◼
►
room, his head's gonna explode, but basically 2160 HD, double resolution, quad pixels, yeah,
01:04:10
◼
►
yada yada. Netflix has content that does that. Amazon has content that does that. It would
01:04:17
◼
►
be nice if, you know, Apple, one, had content that did that, and then two, also had a box
01:04:23
◼
►
that was capable of playing that resolution. So that might happen, but I think otherwise
01:04:28
◼
►
it will be the same hardware that we know now, and I don't expect anything big to change.
01:04:33
◼
►
By the way, speaking of, I'm surprised there's still no Amazon app for the Apple TV. I'm
01:04:39
◼
►
little surprised. Yeah. Jimmy would like to know, he's given us a link to a rumour, we
01:04:46
◼
►
have a rumour here, this was on 9 to 5 Mac, this is not a German TM source. Do you think
01:04:54
◼
►
that this rumour of the iPhone 7 Plus could potentially feature a dual camera system for
01:05:01
◼
►
better photos with 2 to 3 times optical zoom and a bunch of other focusing features, do
01:05:07
◼
►
Do you think that this could be a sign for the ability to record 3D video on the iPhone?
01:05:12
◼
►
So let's take this into parts.
01:05:16
◼
►
The iPhone 7 Plus having two cameras for additional functionality and technology.
01:05:23
◼
►
I think I will refer you to my previous statement about looking at what products, how could
01:05:29
◼
►
products get better, right?
01:05:32
◼
►
One that maybe at the top of the list.
01:05:33
◼
►
Well, no, the top of the list, um, is it shouldn't break when you drop it and it
01:05:39
◼
►
shouldn't break if you put it in water.
01:05:41
◼
►
Uh, these are at the top of the list.
01:05:44
◼
►
I would say being able to see it when you're outside clearly in bright light.
01:05:48
◼
►
Is something that I'd put high on the list and having the camera be better,
01:05:53
◼
►
having the camera continue to be better is a vitally important feature.
01:05:57
◼
►
So using technology, especially since they don't want to get thicker with the
01:06:01
◼
►
phone using technology to add sensors to increase the quality of the image so that it's more
01:06:07
◼
►
like SLR quality? Absolutely possible. I think it's exciting. I think it's a great idea.
01:06:14
◼
►
And I think they're going to have to do something like that because they aren't going to make
01:06:17
◼
►
that camera bulge more or, you know, and they're probably not going to have something that
01:06:21
◼
►
pops out of the back when you're taking a picture and then pops back in, right? Chances
01:06:25
◼
►
are they're going to have to just find ways to improve image quality in that very thin
01:06:30
◼
►
phone enclosure. So, it sounds like a good idea to me.
01:06:35
◼
►
And this is also tied to the fact that Apple acquired a company called Lynx around a year
01:06:40
◼
►
ago which does exactly this. They use multiple sensors to create fantastic looking photos.
01:06:46
◼
►
I think this sounds credible. I don't know if it's the iPhone 7 but I think that this
01:06:50
◼
►
is a potential place that it could go to. However, the 3D video thing, because there
01:06:55
◼
►
is an LG phone, I believe, somewhere that has two cameras and it shoots 3D, right, because
01:07:02
◼
►
it can do that, it makes sense, two lenses, 3D. You'd also need a 3D screen to play the
01:07:07
◼
►
footage back on.
01:07:08
◼
►
Yeah, and that kind of flopped. I, I, this is what I will say about 3D. I don't think
01:07:13
◼
►
3D, but what if you had something like live photos that let you... think of the
01:07:24
◼
►
the effect on the Apple TV icons where there are planes and so as you pan and
01:07:30
◼
►
and slide them you see depth because it's moving between, you know, across.
01:07:36
◼
►
That's what I would say is if you've got two cameras you could potentially do a
01:07:39
◼
►
fun feature like Live Photos that lets you kind of change the plane of the
01:07:44
◼
►
picture because you've got some depth information because you've taken
01:07:48
◼
►
two pictures that are, you know, or taking two pictures that are several inches
01:07:52
◼
►
apart, right? So that's what comes to mind for something like that is, is there a
01:07:57
◼
►
fun feature there that lets you kind of set the depth of field or
01:08:04
◼
►
kind of slide the picture back and forth a little bit and have it feel a little
01:08:08
◼
►
like you're opening one eye and closing the other and going back and forth and making
01:08:12
◼
►
it kind of like that. I don't know. But that was what occurred to me. Not 3D per se, but
01:08:17
◼
►
being able to use those two separate images to do some sort of fun effect.
01:08:20
◼
►
Well, there's that lightro, right? The guys who make that camera that you can change the
01:08:26
◼
►
focus. I would love that. That would be awesome. That kind of technology.
01:08:32
◼
►
And that's, I mean, I saw that there's some camera out there that Tiffany Arment sent
01:08:36
◼
►
the link around that people are working on that's got like eight sensors on the back.
01:08:42
◼
►
It looks like a phone. I think it's not a phone. I think it's a camera. But it looks
01:08:46
◼
►
like a phone. And it's the same thing. One way you get interesting photo effects is not
01:08:51
◼
►
by having a big lens and a big sensor, but a bunch of little lenses and sensors and then
01:08:55
◼
►
software that stitches it all together. And that's a direction that Apple could go in
01:09:00
◼
►
where they stick a bunch of sensors on the back of a camera or on the back of a phone.
01:09:05
◼
►
And you know, you take pictures that way and just let the software deal with it.
01:09:10
◼
►
It's made by a company called Light and it is the L16 and it has 16 camera lenses.
01:09:17
◼
►
That's the one.
01:09:18
◼
►
Yeah and it's mad to look at.
01:09:20
◼
►
Like absolutely bonkers and The Verge had a good piece on it, it's how I remembered
01:09:25
◼
►
I'll put that in our show notes if people want to go and see it but that thing is bat
01:09:32
◼
►
Is that how I would describe that?
01:09:33
◼
►
Carlos has written in, "Is there an easy way to shut down a Mac Plex server using just
01:09:38
◼
►
an iOS device? I use an app called TeamViewer, but I would like an easier way." Jason, do
01:09:44
◼
►
you have an answer for this question?
01:09:46
◼
►
JASON: I don't. I just use teleporter screens from my iOS device and control the screen
01:09:56
◼
►
of the Mac server. There may be some way to kick off a script that does something or other,
01:10:01
◼
►
But I don't know it.
01:10:04
◼
►
I do run Plex on my Mac mini server and it's great, but I'll either walk out here and just
01:10:10
◼
►
turn on the screen or I'll use screens or I teleport and do screen sharing.
01:10:16
◼
►
Screens from Adobe, yeah.
01:10:17
◼
►
It's a VNC app, right?
01:10:19
◼
►
Yeah, that's a good one.
01:10:21
◼
►
That is a good suggestion because you can do whatever it is you need to do.
01:10:26
◼
►
If anybody has another suggestion for Carlos, please let us know.
01:10:29
◼
►
I'd want to mention, I'm becoming more and more interested in Plex, as a thing. That's
01:10:34
◼
►
all I wanted to say. I'm just, I don't have anything set up, I don't have a system at
01:10:41
◼
►
home that I would run it on very easily, but I'm becoming, actually I do have a Mac Mini
01:10:46
◼
►
in the cupboard, anyway, I'm becoming more and more interested in doing this.
01:10:51
◼
►
Yeah, it's, it's uh, I like having, I like having it.
01:10:56
◼
►
I like the idea of sharing libraries perfectly legally of our home videos.
01:11:01
◼
►
Yep. That sounds cool.
01:11:03
◼
►
Well I recommend on the great podcast network, RelayFN, maybe you've heard of it,
01:11:08
◼
►
episode 299 of Mac Power Users is all about Plex. So you should check that out.
01:11:12
◼
►
There you go. I'll put that in.
01:11:15
◼
►
How about that?
01:11:15
◼
►
I have that one saved because I'm not ready, right? So it's sitting in overcast for the
01:11:22
◼
►
day that I become ready to go ahead and dive into Plex.
01:11:25
◼
►
Alright our next question this week comes from Jean Ray and Jean Ray would like to know
01:11:32
◼
►
what is the allure of Sonos over a regular Airplay or Bluetooth speaker? We've been discussing
01:11:37
◼
►
Sonos a lot on connected recently as both Steven and Federico the next week bought a
01:11:44
◼
►
Sonos and I know that I believe that you have one Jason and I wanted to see from your perspective
01:11:50
◼
►
why do you like Sonos maybe over using some other computing technologies?
01:11:55
◼
►
So yeah, I'm trying it out. Sonos sent me a sample and I'm trying it out. I used and
01:12:01
◼
►
still use in some rooms the Logitech SqueezeBox system, which is very similar to Sonos. Jean-Ré's
01:12:08
◼
►
question, and I tried to answer it on Twitter and it's very hard to fit this into 140 characters,
01:12:13
◼
►
and the question was also, I mean, it's not just what's the allure of Sonos, but it is
01:12:16
◼
►
over a regular AirPlay or Bluetooth set of speakers. And my answer is I don't find AirPlay
01:12:22
◼
►
or Bluetooth particularly reliable. I don't enjoy the pairing process. My phones come unpaired or
01:12:30
◼
►
iPads come unpaired from these Bluetooth speakers and then I have to do re-pairing or and maybe
01:12:35
◼
►
there's weird audio artifacts. I don't like having to plug in if you want to use an AUX port instead,
01:12:45
◼
►
plug in your phone and then let it sit there. None of these have really thrilled me and what
01:12:50
◼
►
what I like about Sonos and the SqueezeBox is I can be anywhere in the house, I can turn
01:12:56
◼
►
on the music, I can press play on the box and it just picks up where it left off. So
01:13:03
◼
►
all of these things are nice. It has access to my entire music library, it has access
01:13:09
◼
►
to all of my streaming services, it's all in one place. The remote app on the device
01:13:14
◼
►
access to all of those things in one place instead of switching around and it
01:13:20
◼
►
does multi speaker syncing so that you can play the same music in out of
01:13:26
◼
►
several different speakers and they all work together and suddenly your whole
01:13:29
◼
►
house is filled with music so there are lots of reasons that I that I have it
01:13:32
◼
►
but bottom line for me is I find the airplane bluetooth stuff super fiddly
01:13:35
◼
►
and and again I've got speakers in my living room I've got a speaker in my
01:13:42
◼
►
kitchen, I've got a speaker in the bathroom, they're all over the place.
01:13:47
◼
►
And to have to keep switching among them and it just, and, and like with
01:13:54
◼
►
Bluetooth, the idea of hooking a Bluetooth dongle or something up to my
01:13:57
◼
►
stereo in order to get out of the good speakers in my living room, they make
01:14:01
◼
►
those things they're not particularly reliable.
01:14:03
◼
►
It's just, I, you know, if, if an, a set of AirPlay speakers or Bluetooth speakers
01:14:07
◼
►
works for you, great, but I feel like once you've got multiple speakers in the
01:14:11
◼
►
the house. I don't know, my experience with them has been poor and I've never liked them
01:14:16
◼
►
and so I always preferred something that just has access to my own library on a server in
01:14:23
◼
►
my case and all the streaming services that I subscribe to and I just don't have to worry
01:14:28
◼
►
There you go. I have the allure of that as well but just right now I'm good, I'm good.
01:14:35
◼
►
Just playing things on my devices over the loudspeaker on my iPad Pro while I'm walking
01:14:39
◼
►
around the house.
01:14:40
◼
►
>> Yeah, well there's that too. I mean Sonos has some problems. Sonos doesn't do podcasts
01:14:44
◼
►
very well and that's actually why I still have the squeeze boxes in parts of my house
01:14:48
◼
►
even though I'm trying out the Sonos stuff I can't, they don't just, they just don't
01:14:51
◼
►
handle podcasts well. So hopefully they will get on that because that's a missed opportunity
01:14:55
◼
►
for them. But I, you know, they sound good and they don't require my phone to be, I just,
01:15:03
◼
►
I also don't, just don't like the idea like I'm using my phone, like I had this where
01:15:07
◼
►
I was listening via Bluetooth to something and then I was typing an email and in the
01:15:10
◼
►
middle of the podcaster music I'm hearing the clicky keyboard sound. I hate that's terrible.
01:15:17
◼
►
It makes me uncomfortable that I'm trying to use my phone for one thing and then the
01:15:23
◼
►
speaker elsewhere is slaved to it and if I make a wrong move the music goes away. And
01:15:29
◼
►
I know that's kind of not rational because if I'm listening to music on my headphones
01:15:33
◼
►
on my iPhone it's the same story but there's something about it and I just feel like Bluetooth
01:15:38
◼
►
is so brittle and this is if Bluetooth works for you don't email me because I hear from
01:15:45
◼
►
people like it's great I never have any problems like I hear you I have not had that experience
01:15:52
◼
►
last question this week comes from Chris lately my computer has been acting possessed this
01:15:57
◼
►
This has got me wondering, have you guys ever experienced anything paranormal? Jason?
01:16:05
◼
►
Interesting question to end on, I think.
01:16:07
◼
►
Well, last week it was, maybe all week before was about condiments. I'm trying to find a
01:16:12
◼
►
fun question to end the episodes on.
01:16:14
◼
►
Ah, that's nice. Well, I'm no fun.
01:16:18
◼
►
I have never experienced anything paranormal.
01:16:20
◼
►
Well, there's a good reason for that, Myke. Paranormal things are not real.
01:16:25
◼
►
I was hoping. This was one of those risky questions in which you say to me, "Yes, there
01:16:32
◼
►
is a ghost right here. His name is Fredrick." No, there are no ghosts. Ghosts don't exist.
01:16:35
◼
►
No. That's why they're paranormal, is that nobody can prove them and they don't exist because they
01:16:44
◼
►
are imaginary. And they're fun, but they're not real. If you'd like to find our show notes for
01:16:50
◼
►
this week's episode head on over to relay.fm/upgrades/74 I was letting you take that bullet for me
01:16:56
◼
►
in case you didn't realize. If you'd like to find Jason online you can go to sixcolors.com
01:17:03
◼
►
the incomparable.com and @jasonel on Twitter J S N E double L I am @imike and I write occasionally
01:17:12
◼
►
at mikehoswright.com. People who have like Bluetooth speakers and believe in ghosts really
01:17:17
◼
►
hate me now. I'm sorry. Yeah, most definitely. Bluetooth ghosts. Do ghosts do Bluetooth?
01:17:22
◼
►
You have slotted yourself into that little corner quite nicely. Yes, I'm definitively
01:17:26
◼
►
anti-Bluetooth speakers and anti-ghost. I have yet to truly understand if people will
01:17:32
◼
►
either hate me or not for my iPad comments, but remember everybody, I love the iPad. Thanks
01:17:38
◼
►
again to Ministry of Supply and Squarespace, thank you for listening. We'll be back next
01:17:42
◼
►
week for more upgrade. Until then, say goodbye to Jason Snow. I was a ghost all along!
01:17:50
◼
►
(upbeat music)
01:17:59
◼
►
[BLANK_AUDIO]