00:00:31 ◼ ► #SnailTalkQuestion comes from instantiatethis who asks, "Jason, when you make hot tea, before
00:00:54 ◼ ► It's generally when it's in a thermos or something where it's never going to get cooler.
00:01:18 ◼ ► the basket into the water for the target time and then it lifts the basket back out because
00:01:36 ◼ ► I rarely get up the moment that the tea maker beeps in order to go get the tea when it's
00:01:46 ◼ ► It's got its own threshold and if the tea goes below that point, it will actually warm it
00:02:11 ◼ ► But generally, I guess the answer here technically is wait patiently but a lot of times I'm not
00:02:45 ◼ ► And when that happens, I'll generally go out, put more tea in the mug and microwave it to
00:02:52 ◼ ► And when I do have that problem, oftentimes I can solve it by, if I'm anticipating that
00:03:09 ◼ ► And when I visit my mom in Arizona, I bought a giant one of those that I brew my tea in
00:03:27 ◼ ► that I'm drinking and it would cool down even more, but it doesn't 'cause it's insulated.
00:03:36 ◼ ► But this was a great question 'cause it allowed me to talk again about the wonders of the
00:04:04 ◼ ► starts the tea, and then generally comes back to bed and then we just let the tea make and
00:04:11 ◼ ► - If you'd like to send in a question to help us open an episode of Upgrade, just send out
00:04:23 ◼ ► - Yeah, this is the summer fun, sorry, fun of summer reversal of what we did when I went
00:04:41 ◼ ► We've been trying to book, to go to Romania for the best part of a month and we've just
00:04:51 ◼ ► And as it stands right now, when we're recording this, our flights are locked in and so I'm
00:05:49 ◼ ► There's something about the last year of earnings reports that for some reason, everyone just
00:05:57 ◼ ► - I put a note on my calendar for three months from like last week saying check for the results
00:06:16 ◼ ► At the beginning of that month, I had a little internal timer that kind of goes, but I was
00:06:35 ◼ ► I did have a couple of things that I moved around because I didn't realize I was committing
00:06:39 ◼ ► to so many things on the day that I also was gonna be spending all afternoon and evening
00:06:53 ◼ ► with me so much that you said, let's do the pre-record 'cause I don't wanna miss the conversation
00:07:04 ◼ ► It's not the topic, the recurring topic that I would have guessed is the one that would
00:07:10 ◼ ► make you put the brakes on your vacation in order to discuss with me, but it's very charming.
00:07:21 ◼ ► - If it was ironic, we would have had a laugh about it and then wouldn't have recorded this
00:07:30 ◼ ► I should be packing right now, but instead I wanna talk about Apple's third quarter earnings.
00:08:02 ◼ ► I wanna come back to the iPhone in a minute 'cause there's obviously, there's some stuff
00:08:39 ◼ ► Apple Music was taking off then and App Store growth as well was what did that all the way
00:09:12 ◼ ► Or the other way you could do it is there's 49% iPhone, it's 30% wearables, home, accessories,
00:09:29 ◼ ► - Apple are predicting that they will have some supply constraints for the next quarter
00:09:42 ◼ ► gave guidance, which is something that I mentioned in my story on Macworld about this, because
00:09:51 ◼ ► I get to sit there and think, how do I write the same thing with different numbers every
00:09:59 ◼ ► But here's the thing is they said they would have strong double digit year over year revenue
00:10:03 ◼ ► growth next quarter, and it would be less than this quarter's 36% year over year growth,
00:10:09 ◼ ► which to me sounds kind of like really broad guidance, which means next quarter is gonna
00:10:21 ◼ ► But like, however you slice it, they're forecasting another record quarter next quarter, that
00:10:30 ◼ ► So for all of the things we're gonna get into about the ways where they sort of said, you
00:10:50 ◼ ► which is interesting, especially because I guess at some point we're expecting new ones,
00:10:57 ◼ ► I had a thought about that, which is I wonder if the reason that they're not expecting Mac
00:11:12 ◼ ► Like if we've got the story about the new MacBook Pros and how they had some constraints
00:11:17 ◼ ► and they delayed them, let's assume that they delayed them into this next quarter or the
00:11:32 ◼ ► Because they feel like they're confident enough now that they can get enough of those that
00:11:37 ◼ ► Keep in mind that we're in that quarter now, that's July, August, September, and that means
00:11:47 ◼ ► So maybe it's delayed until the following quarter and therefore there are no Mac problems.
00:11:52 ◼ ► And also they have a run-up to maybe build those so that when they do release them, they'll
00:11:58 ◼ ► So I'm not sure, and they may be thinking, right, that's one way you talk about staying
00:12:04 ◼ ► in balance is you delay things and then they don't get released and then there's no demand
00:12:16 ◼ ► - There may be reduced, they might be selling less because people might be aware that the
00:12:27 ◼ ► Because your demand drops temporarily because people are waiting for the new thing and that's
00:12:48 ◼ ► They said that the iPhone is gonna be supply-constrained, at least somewhat, which is something.
00:12:52 ◼ ► - You see, something that you noted in your article was potentially another October release,
00:13:15 ◼ ► One scenario that's pretty strong is that they're gonna do their early September announcement,
00:13:19 ◼ ► and they're going to ship them late September, which means that some iPhone sales will be
00:13:27 ◼ ► And what they're saying is they won't be able to ship enough of them in this quarter, and
00:13:41 ◼ ► It's interesting though, 'cause that is Apple trying to put a little bit of a limitation
00:14:07 ◼ ► But I do think that it could possibly be true that they won't ship these iPhones until October.
00:14:13 ◼ ► It's also, like the truth is that unless you get an iPhone the first week maybe that it's
00:14:19 ◼ ► out if it ships in September, the rest of those sales are in the holiday quarter, which
00:14:26 ◼ ► It's you know, most iPhone sales are probably not in late September, they're in early October,
00:14:54 ◼ ► If you're, just to try and back up what I'm saying, because the iPhone came late, we knew
00:14:59 ◼ ► that there was gonna be a quarter where they were gonna have the majority of their sales,
00:15:03 ◼ ► so it was gonna be in the Q2 earnings, because that was when the iPhone was actually available.
00:15:08 ◼ ► Them having sold as many iPhones as they have right now, that 50% year over year, that isn't
00:15:50 ◼ ► Huawei was Apple's main competitor in China, but because Huawei cannot use Android anymore,
00:16:00 ◼ ► And something, it was really interesting, especially because Ben's done so much in-depth
00:16:10 ◼ ► That was when they had that huge explosive year over year growth, and then kind of felt
00:16:24 ◼ ► But then in previous years, it went down a bit again, because, and as we've always said,
00:16:29 ◼ ► if you take the iPhone 6 out of the year over year growth, you can see like a good curve
00:16:43 ◼ ► I think what's interesting, and you're right, this is reminiscent of the iPhone 6, and Ben
00:16:50 ◼ ► What I find really fascinating is, you know, the holiday quarter always is huge for iPhone
00:17:27 ◼ ► And the reason I say this is because normally there's a much larger drop between the holiday
00:17:39 ◼ ► And I think what happened there is that some iPhone sales that would have happened in the
00:17:51 ◼ ► But then the next two quarters, the next six months after the holidays, first half of 2021,
00:17:59 ◼ ► those quarters' iPhone sales were huge, like way bigger than your normal Q2 and Q3 are.
00:18:08 ◼ ► And so I think that's the truth of it, right, is that we are seeing a sales spike here.
00:18:13 ◼ ► It's just not quite as dramatic if you're just looking quarter to quarter and not realizing
00:18:23 ◼ ► Another way to frame this would be this was a 50% year-over-year increase and the previous
00:18:32 ◼ ► And I think the reason is that there are actually some sales that rolled over from the first
00:19:02 ◼ ► And they're selling more iPhones three years later than they were that thing that looked
00:19:10 ◼ ► But there is that question of like, is there going to be an iPhone hangover again where
00:19:17 ◼ ► And in the call with analysts, Tim Cook basically said, "We think we have a lot of growth here
00:19:23 ◼ ► still ahead of us because of 5G and that there's a 5G rollout that's still in its earliest
00:19:35 ◼ ► So the idea there is that it's not just that this is a new phone design that people like,
00:19:45 ◼ ► When 5G's rollout is sort of complete, they're going to be casting around for the next thing
00:19:50 ◼ ► and they will have sold a bunch of phones to people who hang onto their phones for five
00:20:14 ◼ ► And it honestly was therein that the scales fell from my eyes and I understand why Apple
00:20:23 ◼ ► Because they have identified that 5G could help them sell a lot more iPhones than a typical
00:20:39 ◼ ► And now they're like, "Well, now all these customers have been holding onto their phones
00:20:52 ◼ ► This is the thing that's going to save Tim from needing to come up with another services.
00:21:11 ◼ ► And if they have another one of these with this, if they end up having an iPhone 6 thing,
00:21:41 ◼ ► rollouts yet view an iPhone with 5G as a good, like a safe upgrade because they know that
00:21:59 ◼ ► But in other countries, you have this ability to be like, "Well, we don't have 5G here yet,
00:22:06 ◼ ► And that can be a future-proofing of a sort for somebody in a country that doesn't currently
00:23:13 ◼ ► I don't feel like I need to use the revenue charts as a way to explain why the product's
00:23:31 ◼ ► But if you look past the previous year, it's just been good year over year consistent growth
00:24:06 ◼ ► So you think about seasonality, you get that you get that quarter where they do a lot of
00:24:15 ◼ ► Mac is not seasonal in the same way that the iPhone is and the iPad to a certain degree.
00:24:20 ◼ ► But like you look at the charts and it's just four enormous quarters in a row, four quarters
00:25:21 ◼ ► Whether it's to drive people to your products, collect sales leads for your company, or provide
00:25:25 ◼ ► customer service of a contact form, when you have these critical transactions fail, you
00:25:41 ◼ ► days a week, and it will alert you immediately when cart checkouts, forms, or login pages
00:25:49 ◼ ► Pingdom can notify you the moment there is a failure over SMS, email, or via your favorite
00:26:19 ◼ ► That's Pingdom.com/RelayFM for a 30-day free trial and the code UPGRADE at checkout for
00:26:34 ◼ ► Julia is one of my favorite smart people on the internet to write about streaming media.
00:27:03 ◼ ► You were on my old Download podcast, and you've been on some other Relay podcasts over the
00:27:18 ◼ ► week, which is Scarlett Johansson suing Disney, saying that Disney induced Marvel—I love
00:27:24 ◼ ► it—Disney induced Marvel to break her contract in terms of paying her—she gets money for
00:27:48 ◼ ► And this is—there's been a lot of analysis out there that I think is interesting about,
00:28:11 ◼ ► Does this completely invalidate how the talent involved in Hollywood has gotten paid in the
00:28:18 ◼ ► And so what do you think—what was your reaction when you saw this lawsuit news come out?
00:28:35 ◼ ► been a brewing battle with arguably less public kind of guilds, less public positions, but
00:28:40 ◼ ► the writers in Hollywood have said for years that they are missing out on financial opportunities
00:28:58 ◼ ► kind of sympathize with in a way because they know these people, they know these faces,
00:29:02 ◼ ► to say, "Hey, we are getting kind of screwed out of our money on the side of things because
00:29:07 ◼ ► we are no longer tied to the theatrical box office and the percentage that kind of comes
00:29:16 ◼ ► where we were always headed over the last year, two years, was this is even more important
00:29:31 ◼ ► She's going to be far from the last, but the floodgates, you know, that were once really
00:29:34 ◼ ► trying not to crack under this building pressure of a brewing battle between the talent and
00:29:48 ◼ ► The idea of Hollywood bookkeeping, cheating directors and writers and stars out of money
00:30:08 ◼ ► But with this, you know, if you figured that, okay, box office receipts, we can all agree
00:30:18 ◼ ► With streaming, not only does that upset the idea of box office receipts, but also it upsets
00:30:24 ◼ ► the idea that there's something that's public and verifiable about the success of anything,
00:30:31 ◼ ► Netflix is more open than they used to be about streaming success, but essentially once
00:30:42 ◼ ► It means that there's no third party to verify that they're paying you what you're owed.
00:30:46 ◼ ► And like, I don't, I'm not quite sure what the solution is here, but, but at least we're
00:31:10 ◼ ► And to their goal, I assume Disney will try to settle at this point because it's a very,
00:31:20 ◼ ► And I know there's been reports that they just didn't respond to Johansson and her kind
00:31:27 ◼ ► That they, that they actually emailed her people and said, if we go to a digital release,
00:31:42 ◼ ► industry, whether on the reporter side, especially have kind of heard these rumors and Matt Bellamy
00:31:50 ◼ ► He reported it last night about this idea that, you know, Kevin Feige and, and it's been
00:32:01 ◼ ► But the issue is while he has to answer to his talent side and creating what he's doing
00:32:05 ◼ ► on the Marvel side and to an extent, you know, report to the Bobs, Bob Chapek, the current
00:32:09 ◼ ► CEO and Bob Iger, executive chairman and former CEO, the Bobs have to appeal to the board
00:32:16 ◼ ► And they, they got a grow Disney plus, they got to grow Disney plus bottom line, right.
00:32:21 ◼ ► And I think to your exact point where the box office was a tangible public form of success
00:32:29 ◼ ► I think we could look at it and say, you know I think the domestic total is still 160 million
00:32:52 ◼ ► And I do think it leads to a much higher and easier form of piracy plus account sharing
00:32:59 ◼ ► At the same time, if Disney, if having black widow and Disney plus led to additional revenue
00:33:03 ◼ ► and led to an increase in subscriptions that Disney feels competent enough to talk about
00:33:18 ◼ ► The reason that talent likes the box office is because we can point to Leonardo DiCaprio
00:33:24 ◼ ► You know, J Jennifer Lawrence is the reason people are going to see this Chris Hemsworth
00:33:35 ◼ ► the other unions are going, we need this public thing to ensure that our talent is getting
00:33:43 ◼ ► That's what we're going to start seeing the studios really kind of come out and go, okay,
00:33:56 ◼ ► And, and I, I think there's a way to look at this and say that the, this is really just
00:34:08 ◼ ► We're going to release this in theaters and simultaneously on Disney Plus, but we're going
00:34:25 ◼ ► And you know that by doing the premiere access on Disney Plus, we're going to lose week three,
00:34:42 ◼ ► And then you agree, like how much money do you need a larger percentage of the theatrical
00:34:47 ◼ ► and what's your percentage and how do you, how do you kind of audit it for the premiere
00:34:55 ◼ ► Like, I feel like there's probably a negotiation to be had there to get everybody on the same
00:35:06 ◼ ► Like they were probably had to pay 200 million extra in backend because they were saying,
00:35:13 ◼ ► We know that your agreement with your producers and our team is to get some kind of percentage
00:35:18 ◼ ► ties to the box office or, or, you know, whatever, and it hits this level of, of box office revenue.
00:35:33 ◼ ► And if you're Disney, that's something that you're going to take into account pretty quickly
00:35:36 ◼ ► for any major studio, because if you have a non Marvel project, you have like a sleeping
00:35:51 ◼ ► It brings them into Disney plus premier access, but what you're going to do on forward is
00:35:54 ◼ ► you're going to go, yeah, no problem, we're going to put that to the contract and we negotiated
00:36:15 ◼ ► And what Disney is going to try to do legally is say, Hey, we tried to the best of our abilities
00:36:19 ◼ ► under extreme situations where we were, you know, our, our shareholders were worried about
00:36:34 ◼ ► We actually held up that end of the deal that whether or not the judge goes, yeah, you actually
00:36:40 ◼ ► did what you needed to do or, or, you know what, no, you probably should have had negotiations.
00:37:07 ◼ ► And if they fail, they'll settle because they do not want discovery to happen in a case
00:37:24 ◼ ► I want to, I want to take a little different angle here because you mentioned what happened
00:37:28 ◼ ► with Jason Kullar and WarnerMedia and taking all of their movies and putting them on HBO
00:37:34 ◼ ► Max and having to, yeah, again, you're, you're compensating people based on theatrical receipts
00:37:41 ◼ ► Because obviously what you're getting out of it is you're building your streaming service,
00:38:05 ◼ ► Don't get me wrong, but sometimes you get the sense that they also want love and appreciation
00:38:12 ◼ ► and that sometimes the relationships are founded on, on not just money, but also appreciation.
00:38:19 ◼ ► I bring that up because like Christopher Nolan was really sad about HBO Max and Tenet, but
00:38:27 ◼ ► like Christopher Nolan, you know, he was sad about the money, but he was also sad about
00:38:43 ◼ ► They're just going to write you a check, but if it does really well, you don't get an upside,
00:38:57 ◼ ► And I wonder if part of what's going on with Scarlett Johansson is this kind of recalibration
00:39:10 ◼ ► treated and are they going to be under the thumb of these studios who are building 21st
00:39:39 ◼ ► I think it is the reason that if Christopher Nolan leads Warner Brothers, he's not likely
00:39:48 ◼ ► though they have a tighter budget restriction, go to a Sony where Tom Rothman can kind of
00:39:54 ◼ ► sell this beautiful romanticized idea of what Hollywood is, where Tom Rothman believes in
00:39:58 ◼ ► being a director's director and actor's actor and he really loves this idea of what the
00:40:06 ◼ ► I think that ties into a debate that happened with executives, you know, a few years ago,
00:40:10 ◼ ► and it's still kind of ongoing, but really brought on by the MCU and kind of everything
00:40:25 ◼ ► make money because it's a Marvel movie versus did Iron Man work because they had Robert
00:40:29 ◼ ► O'Connor Jr. and Gwen Paltrow and that just made a lot of sense from an A-list star perspective.
00:40:35 ◼ ► So not to get all baseball on you for a minute, but in sports they have this concept in baseball,
00:40:41 ◼ ► especially of the replacement player, and that's kind of what you're saying here, which
00:40:53 ◼ ► And the difference there is the value beyond just, you know, doing the job, the value of
00:41:00 ◼ ► And it's kind of unmeasurable, but it's super important because, you know, Marvel will argue
00:41:11 ◼ ► And I think what you have from one end of the stick is people, and I don't know if this
00:41:16 ◼ ► is just my assumption, but you have people at Disney who are like, we are selling Marvel
00:41:21 ◼ ► You'll find actors that we like and who we believe in to put in those roles because someone
00:41:37 ◼ ► Scarlett Johansson in a movie, it's the demand for Black Widow as a character is more important
00:41:47 ◼ ► goes, yeah, like I feel like after nine movies with this company and 10, 11 years, I should
00:42:01 ◼ ► He knows, he's talked publicly about saying, you know, I wish I could have gone back and
00:42:14 ◼ ► That's why Martin Scorsese works with Netflix, but Netflix was like, we're going to put your
00:42:20 ◼ ► I think there are other directors, there are other actors who might not care about it as
00:42:31 ◼ ► that's why when I say they want to be loved, and I know that that sounds a little bit like
00:42:37 ◼ ► It's I want you to appreciate my art and put it where I want or it's I want people to see
00:42:42 ◼ ► it, and I need to know that people are seeing it or it's I want to have a good relationship
00:42:57 ◼ ► with Netflix because they'll take the check if they have to, but they'd rather work somewhere
00:43:05 ◼ ► promotion and like things that maybe if you're just in the in the in the tube coming out
00:43:17 ◼ ► Well, I think that's the word I was just confused the it's the lack of respect when we again
00:43:27 ◼ ► in negotiations with Paramount but what happened with a quiet place part two where that went
00:43:32 ◼ ► straight after 45 days and that wasn't part of the deal you've got you've got these conversations
00:43:38 ◼ ► happening with writers and directors who are and then you know you've got this conversation
00:43:41 ◼ ► happening with a brand the studio legendary legendary who was going to sue Warner Brothers
00:43:47 ◼ ► at large appointed deadline because they were like you can't just do this are a bunch of
00:43:52 ◼ ► what we promise our actors is tied into what goes out in the box office it's how we value
00:43:58 ◼ ► ourselves we like to have our big blockbusters on a big screen so you have June and you have
00:44:02 ◼ ► I forget the other one they had Godzilla it's like they want to be in theaters the executives
00:44:07 ◼ ► I get where they're coming from they're in the middle of pandemic they are losing billions
00:44:11 ◼ ► of dollars they need something to show shareholders that everything is going to be okay so even
00:44:25 ◼ ► suite of movies right assuming services excuse me we're gonna put movies there we're gonna
00:44:29 ◼ ► draw people there they throw around terms like ARPU and all of a sudden yeah we're building
00:44:38 ◼ ► the talent making the movies and you're you're you know you don't get the shareholder value
00:44:42 ◼ ► out of it you just get your your pay for your box office receipts and that's what I that's
00:44:47 ◼ ► exactly what I think this moment is this is I think this was the moment everyone was waiting
00:44:51 ◼ ► for it was like who will be the first person to really take on this major studio so not
00:44:56 ◼ ► just a tinier studio that's going like oh well they're you know maybe a little bit boutique
00:45:00 ◼ ► and they can't really afford it it's no this is Disney their massive massive conglomeration
00:45:20 ◼ ► and where you where you think they are right now because you've got some fascinating research
00:45:32 ◼ ► got a question a few weeks ago from a listener about why Pixar's movies got booted to Disney
00:45:50 ◼ ► just kick them directly onto the service obviously that builds shareholder value and is it the
00:45:56 ◼ ► contracts that my initial thought was like maybe it's just that those contracts weren't
00:45:59 ◼ ► as big a deal to pay the people off who made the movie versus what they do for something
00:46:10 ◼ ► releases are gonna end up in terms of do you do a hybrid do you do a premier access kind
00:46:15 ◼ ► of hybrid do you do a shorter window but why don't we start with Pixar you have any insight
00:46:19 ◼ ► into sort of like why was it easy for them to take what two or three Pixar releases and
00:46:26 ◼ ► Yeah I mean so I think there's a two-fold answer one is 100% contractual I there's always
00:46:37 ◼ ► Pixar's contracts are probably pretty limited in terms of people getting a percentage of
00:46:41 ◼ ► the gross right since it's mostly the creative team is just a Pixar employee and then they've
00:46:50 ◼ ► Yeah but I think the second and the more important and the more you know kind of bluntly obvious
00:46:55 ◼ ► thing is Pixar does not you think of a Pixar movie that's not a sequel so it's not a known
00:47:07 ◼ ► to theaters maybe but will people pay for a thing like Mulan will they pay for a Cruella
00:47:13 ◼ ► will they pay for any of these kind of known quantity quantity versus taking a flyer on
00:47:21 ◼ ► Yeah so I mean I think I think you know the the really interesting one was Ryan the Last
00:47:30 ◼ ► it was a new Disney animation movie they put it on Disney Plus and it did pretty well if
00:47:35 ◼ ► I remember correctly based on the trade reporting for Disney and I think that was something
00:47:43 ◼ ► with what we're seeing on premier access whether or not that means they're over the moon we
00:47:51 ◼ ► we're seeing how things play out and I think he said perfectly for Disney and to answer
00:48:00 ◼ ► premier access is all of Disney Plus is they're figuring out from their data what works what
00:48:05 ◼ ► doesn't so I imagine part of them went Pixar movies are the type of movies that will get
00:48:10 ◼ ► parents to watch things with their kids and then rewatch and so that increases engagement
00:48:23 ◼ ► love to look at is will this movie lead to you watching other movies versus you leaving
00:48:31 ◼ ► soul is a perfect Christmas movie why charge for $50 there it is and that's how they kind
00:48:36 ◼ ► of wrap it up in marketing versus yeah we have a 200 million dollar movie in luang we've
00:48:42 ◼ ► got 150 million dollar movie in Cruella right big stars we want to put this in theaters
00:48:47 ◼ ► and those contracts are probably much harder to re-negotiate and the money I tried to explain
00:48:52 ◼ ► this to somebody who said who asked me like why don't they just put everything on streaming
00:48:56 ◼ ► in the future and the answer is they could do that and maybe they will do that the problem
00:49:03 ◼ ► cove it aside right and that changes things like the economics these are these are priced
00:49:08 ◼ ► these are budgeted for an enormous theatrical release and an enormous theatrical box office
00:49:14 ◼ ► and you know if you want a marvel movie that's direct to Disney Plus it's going to be like
00:49:36 ◼ ► also post everybody having their own streaming service is it just they're going to narrow
00:49:40 ◼ ► the window or do you think that they're going to try this hybrid approach of like well you
00:49:51 ◼ ► two big changes and then one smaller change that we won't even notice the biggest change
00:50:00 ◼ ► exclusive to 45 which sounds like a lot except that when you actually run the numbers I did
00:50:05 ◼ ► this recently for Marvel but it's true across the board if you take something like Marvel
00:50:09 ◼ ► which has 20 through 24 films 96 point something percent of those movies make the majority
00:50:15 ◼ ► of their revenue and I mean 98 of their revenue within three to four weeks so they're going
00:50:30 ◼ ► then once that's done we're coming to Disney plus we'll figure out what we do there whether
00:50:37 ◼ ► going acknowledging what they do acknowledge which is their 45 days is exactly when people
00:50:42 ◼ ► are gonna go see a movie if they're gonna go see a movie for the most part so the actual
00:50:46 ◼ ► from a theater perspective you go okay how do we fill in the blanks if we no longer have
00:50:49 ◼ ► this playing for 90 days I like that's what you're seeing with AMC right now and especially
00:50:53 ◼ ► theaters like Alamo which is when they're doing UFC events they partner with other people
00:50:57 ◼ ► they do like Grand Prix they do the World Cup they go yeah have the communal experience
00:51:01 ◼ ► of a movie pay for this rent the theater to watch something we have that the second thing
00:51:06 ◼ ► that we're already seeing is you know people like to kind of publicly criticize this and
00:51:11 ◼ ► I get where they're coming from and the shift will happen we just won't hear about it is
00:51:18 ◼ ► release is now going streaming exclusive no real extra pay but it's going streaming exclusive
00:51:27 ◼ ► gonna make these kind of mid-tier budget movies that would be independent type films for the
00:51:35 ◼ ► you know Disney proper and those will be available for free and they'll still get marketing play
00:51:40 ◼ ► but they won't cost as much and then they'll bring you into your streaming service or they'll
00:51:45 ◼ ► or they'll keep you there and we're seeing it happen I mean like Warner Brothers started
00:51:49 ◼ ► a line then they closed it but they're basically doing it to make 10 to 12 mid-tier budget
00:52:08 ◼ ► just less costly Marvel type movies or Star Wars type movies that are not TV shows maybe
00:52:17 ◼ ► end up with these this tiered system of you've got your big blockbusters that you got to
00:52:30 ◼ ► well pre-COVID right down overall the interesting right we kind of juxtaposition is that attendance
00:52:42 ◼ ► year but revenue was actually a bit higher for the movies and all that tells us is that
00:52:50 ◼ ► like the end we can guess what those are going to be because we saw Disney in 2019 and Disney
00:52:54 ◼ ► owned like 55% of the whole box office between food box and so they went yeah people are
00:52:59 ◼ ► going to go watch Joker and Avengers and Star Wars they will go pay money to go do it Godzilla
00:53:10 ◼ ► make on this and to your point about transparency if we're gonna be slammed in variety in the
00:53:15 ◼ ► Hollywood Reporter and deadline for you know kind of coming in low why don't we just send
00:53:28 ◼ ► even better to Wall Street and the shares go up and they avoid all the kind of embarrassment
00:53:33 ◼ ► that comes with it so I think what we'll see is we'll still put 10 12 15 movies in theaters
00:53:41 ◼ ► off and I think the company you know the industry that really loses out on that is the theatrical
00:53:46 ◼ ► business but I don't think the theatrical business is going away I think it's just going
00:53:55 ◼ ► Yeah I was thinking you mentioned Alamo Drafthouse and I was thinking that I feel like the movie
00:54:01 ◼ ► industry was already kind of going there and and COVID has accelerated it if for no other
00:54:05 ◼ ► reason than people have really gotten comfortable watching things in their homes even more than
00:54:12 ◼ ► and a half and this happens that Alamo Drafthouse like a theater like that there's an experience
00:54:18 ◼ ► an IMAX theater it's an experience it's like more it's going to get you out of your house
00:54:32 ◼ ► was very much like we have an exclusive so you're going to come in our terrible theater
00:54:37 ◼ ► with our terrible seats and our you know terrible screen and our terrible popcorn because we've
00:54:41 ◼ ► got the Avengers and I'm not sure that attitude is going to work yeah and and the theaters
00:54:50 ◼ ► like this too which is you know the good comic book shops a lot of good comic book shops
00:54:59 ◼ ► hated their customers they all died immediately right because they didn't care and they're
00:55:04 ◼ ► the first to go and I feel like movie theaters are going to be like that the movie theater
00:55:10 ◼ ► exactly to your experience point uh I mean I probably there's not a lot of alamodes where
00:55:14 ◼ ► I go for almost 100 of my movies is you know like if I'm going to see Green Knight I would
00:55:18 ◼ ► very much like an old-fashioned while watching it and I think that is like a whole thing
00:55:22 ◼ ► that you that the pre-the pre-show that they do is phenomenal but I think the other conversation
00:55:26 ◼ ► that's going to come out of both the lawsuit and kind of this move with theatrical today
00:55:31 ◼ ► and date if you take something like Marvel which has a rabid fan base one that I'm part
00:55:40 ◼ ► again in normal times they'll go four or five times their friends over the course of a few
00:55:52 ◼ ► many of them are then just buying the movie and re-watching it 10 times at home how many
00:55:56 ◼ ► are sharing it with friends how many are pirating it and I think that conversation which we
00:56:00 ◼ ► don't have the information on yet uh is the most interesting it's the repeat viewing which
00:56:05 ◼ ► is already kind of low but for something like Marvel something like DC where it's the difference
00:56:09 ◼ ► between 150 million and maybe 175 180 million mommy might not mean much to marvel or Disney's
00:56:16 ◼ ► corporations 30 million that if you're a star and that's the difference between whether
00:56:25 ◼ ► this bonus it's going to be a big conversation driver yeah I was thinking about the premier
00:56:29 ◼ ► access thing on Disney and how the way they've structured it is you're basically getting
00:56:50 ◼ ► temporary you don't get to just watch this forever because that's not what it's for and
00:56:54 ◼ ► they chose not to do that and I I'll be honest I bought Black Widow on on the premier access
00:57:00 ◼ ► and I loved it I loved that we were watching that movie and we didn't have to go to a movie
00:57:03 ◼ ► theater because we were not kind of comfortable doing that but and I would love in the long
00:57:12 ◼ ► and just never go to the movie theater anymore and we don't have any very good movie theaters
00:57:16 ◼ ► near me which is why I say that but I'm kind of resigned to the fact that that business
00:57:21 ◼ ► model is not actually going to make those movies exist so that for the big budget movies
00:57:25 ◼ ► I'm still going to need to go see it in the theater if I don't want to wait a month and
00:57:28 ◼ ► a half to see it. Yeah but to your point I mean I did I went kind of opening night went
00:57:43 ◼ ► three or four times on premier access that's like 60 bucks in tickets right from one person
00:57:57 ◼ ► is that encourages them you to then spend eight dollars a month regardless um if you're
00:58:01 ◼ ► saying if you're someone who is maybe not someone with kids who Disney plus is an automatic
00:58:07 ◼ ► purchase for if you're not somebody's a die-hard Marvel or Star Wars fan but you're like oh
00:58:15 ◼ ► if I cancel after one month after I have this movie I lose access to it but if I keep it
00:58:20 ◼ ► I at least have this movie I bought for 30 dollars it's the difference I think in Disney
00:58:24 ◼ ► going yeah we're gonna retain some subscribers who are potentially going to leave yeah that's
00:58:29 ◼ ► true that's a good point all right well Myke is gone so I get to be the person to say that
00:58:34 ◼ ► we have to take a break this episode of upgrade is also brought to you by text expander from
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00:59:16 ◼ ► you know I get emails about sponsoring six colors and I always answer them the same way
00:59:21 ◼ ► I have the same details like what do you need I have to say oh well you need to give me
00:59:26 ◼ ► a little text ad and a longer post and it has to be this and I need it by then and every
00:59:32 ◼ ► time I type that I think this should be a text expander snippet because why am I typing
00:59:36 ◼ ► the same thing over and over again computers should do that work for us and that's what
01:00:08 ◼ ► let's just do a little kind of go around the horn and talk a little bit about each of these
01:00:11 ◼ ► streamers and sort of what's going on with them and and and since this is upgrade we're
01:00:25 ◼ ► a surprisingly in-demand show and that I think what you said was Apple TV+ started off as
01:00:31 ◼ ► what's the point and is sort of turning you know turning into something that's a little
01:00:36 ◼ ► bit more on the right path it is it our interpretation here has been that they kind of want to be
01:00:47 ◼ ► quality and have it be just sort of a destination for good content and they're not worried about
01:00:51 ◼ ► their catalog they're just worried about like getting enough stuff that they get some critical
01:01:01 ◼ ► all that matters and I feel like Apple TV+ that's sort of the game that they're playing
01:01:04 ◼ ► up to now yeah I mean you're the Apple expert but I you know the thing the fun thing about
01:01:10 ◼ ► Apple TV+ is they are literally stealing the HBO playbook by you know teaming up with Richard
01:01:15 ◼ ► Butler who was you know granted for a very long time they are working with the Sony guys
01:01:19 ◼ ► who very much admire what HBO has done and they sold high quality shows to their distributing
01:01:25 ◼ ► partners I think the fascinating thing about Apple TV+ is considering it's only been around
01:01:35 ◼ ► piece of like licensed content but even then if you look at their library it's very small
01:01:41 ◼ ► the overall demand which just means like how much are people kind of at this point willing
01:01:46 ◼ ► to pay because they want to see that show or how much are they willing to seek out that
01:01:49 ◼ ► show is incredibly high across the entire catalog like compared to even Disney+'s catalog
01:01:56 ◼ ► across it's much higher and I think to apples you know to those executives credit over Apple
01:02:02 ◼ ► TV+ they're picking their shows very specifically they know what they're trying to build and
01:02:06 ◼ ► it's working for them I do think if they want to scale it to be a proper streaming service
01:02:12 ◼ ► they will have to acquire some kind of a library because they don't have what I like to call
01:02:21 ◼ ► when you're on you're working out you're watching you're making dinner it's what you have on
01:02:24 ◼ ► the background it's familiar comfortable lots of it but it's my daughter was visiting us
01:02:34 ◼ ► thing that makes Hulu and Netflix really work beyond kind of the originals Apple doesn't
01:02:39 ◼ ► have that you know the question I get I have this conversation my old boss you know Neil
01:02:45 ◼ ► I tell his editor-in-chief over the verge and his and I we always can just debate because
01:02:54 ◼ ► with their overall services bundle is it actually you know kind of keeping people within that
01:02:59 ◼ ► walled garden ecosystem is it helping people choose to upgrade to Apple products and the
01:03:03 ◼ ► nice thing about Apple like Amazon is that it doesn't matter right now because they have
01:03:07 ◼ ► so much money that it's like this is an experiment still for us and it's and on the experiment
01:03:13 ◼ ► side it's actually going pretty well for them so I think Apple TV+ was so easy to write
01:03:21 ◼ ► know how many are paid subscriptions we write they're still gonna free trials and we have
01:03:35 ◼ ► to other people they're actually doing pretty well and I think that bodes well for them
01:03:44 ◼ ► pay 20 bucks a month for Apple one they need a little bit more and that I think that will
01:03:49 ◼ ► come in the form of an acquisition of some like yeah similar to hands-on thing with MGM
01:04:05 ◼ ► they're the they're the big the number one but I mentioned them earlier about like they
01:04:11 ◼ ► just have this pipe of content that just kind of outflows and it's enormous and is that
01:04:16 ◼ ► their strategy is just we make it up in volume and also we have games that we are gonna put
01:04:21 ◼ ► on your phone or something like I wonder Netflix is so big that on one level they seem unassailable
01:04:37 ◼ ► the tortoise and the hare kind of thing where they the big entertainment they're so far
01:04:56 ◼ ► States and Canada they are only going to ever lose or gain very little subscribers and all
01:05:03 ◼ ► that means is that they're losing those are current and the ones coming back are probably
01:05:06 ◼ ► reactivating for something they've hit saturation point which is an interesting moment because
01:05:11 ◼ ► it means that they are no longer the core kind of country or region that they're looking
01:05:19 ◼ ► they're trying to grow on the release they're trying to grow Latin America they're trying
01:05:22 ◼ ► to grow a pack and I think what the challenge that lies ahead for them which is a pretty
01:05:32 ◼ ► shows your big French shows your big Russian your big Mexican series to travel to the realm
01:05:40 ◼ ► the world to the point that you're going okay yeah no matter where I am no matter what region
01:05:49 ◼ ► they have that as much as Ted Sarandos who's their co-ceos they're head of their content
01:05:53 ◼ ► for a long time likes to play this down it's very hard to make franchises it's not easy
01:05:58 ◼ ► Disney bought their big franchises they acquired Lucas and they acquired Marvel and they said
01:06:03 ◼ ► cool and they ended up working really well for them Warner Brothers acquired DC Netflix
01:06:08 ◼ ► is not necessarily the business of acquiring a lot of studios but it's not what their game
01:06:12 ◼ ► is and their whole thing will acquire licensing rights will acquire titles will acquire the
01:06:16 ◼ ► rights of things will build it and I think what you're seeing now is them really trying
01:06:19 ◼ ► to figure that out where they have the Witcher they've got a bunch of other video game stuff
01:06:26 ◼ ► out what they can take and go okay we'll turn this into something that is new for us while
01:06:35 ◼ ► their big big franchise they only need a Game of Thrones to but it's easy much easier said
01:06:40 ◼ ► than done if everyone could have a Star Wars everyone would have a Star Wars so I think
01:06:45 ◼ ► that's their big thing is what's our big franchise what is worth the amount of money that we're
01:06:48 ◼ ► going to invest into it and on the other side of things they're losing their licensed content
01:06:53 ◼ ► and they need it I think there's a there's a reason people get really excited when Twilight
01:07:06 ◼ ► the difference between oh I will keep Netflix because I can watch 30 Rock and go to bed
01:07:10 ◼ ► at night it's fine and just not being able to watch 30 Rock and I think the perfect example
01:07:15 ◼ ► this just to end my kind of rant is everybody thought The Office for Me to Peacock would
01:07:19 ◼ ► make Peacock the biggest therapist right and what it proved with the lack of kind of Peacock
01:07:32 ◼ ► the number one show that people want it was number one show on Netflix because 200 million
01:07:35 ◼ ► households were like oh I will watch the Netflix I will watch the I'll watch The Office when
01:07:49 ◼ ► on to those and fight for them because that's the difference between people going to Hulu
01:07:57 ◼ ► now speaking of blockbusters let's talk about Amazon Prime Video and and I'm glad I had
01:08:13 ◼ ► of a part of their overall strategy which means that they can spend money kind of without
01:08:18 ◼ ► expecting to get it back which is that's that is a tough opponent if you're if you're their
01:08:23 ◼ ► opponent because they they don't value money like you do and that's a problem so but they
01:08:31 ◼ ► seem to have found a better place than than the old leadership did but they also got this
01:08:38 ◼ ► sort of seeking a blockbuster they made the big Lord of the Rings deal that's in progress
01:08:45 ◼ ► so where where is Prime Video right now do you think yeah I think just to kind of reiterate
01:08:50 ◼ ► what you just said in the way that Apple don't very much want services to do well that's
01:08:55 ◼ ► why you know Luca kind of points out earnings like we have 700 million paid subscriptions
01:09:03 ◼ ► they very much want you to stay in that iPhone ecosystem and upgrade or Mac whatever may
01:09:07 ◼ ► be Amazon would like you to watch Lord of the Rings and then you know once you're there
01:09:13 ◼ ► please buy toilet paper or Lord of the Rings book or Lord of the Rings shirt from us because
01:09:18 ◼ ► all their Prime is their whole thing having the subscription via Prime having the retail
01:09:33 ◼ ► ways to bring that in is having a blockbuster TV show where people sign up and then all
01:09:37 ◼ ► of a sudden once you've signed up for Amazon Prime Video you have access to Amazon Prime
01:09:46 ◼ ► more time shopping on Prime they're kind of going like oh I'm already here or I'm seeing
01:09:53 ◼ ► dog food and so I think Amazon's whole play with having a deeper catalog of content MGM
01:10:00 ◼ ► and then they can turn that into bigger franchises that maybe bring people in and then actually
01:10:04 ◼ ► spending the money in the big battles to acquire the rights to projects they kind of know bring
01:10:10 ◼ ► people bring people in is that it's just that it's to get people into Prime and then keep
01:10:20 ◼ ► do want to watch Lord of the Rings whatever it may be I think it could work for them but
01:10:32 ◼ ► or if you could buy something that seems like Lord of the Rings kind of based on Lord of
01:10:36 ◼ ► the Rings most people would just take Lord of the Rings I think we saw that with Jupiter
01:10:40 ◼ ► ascending which was Netflix going we can kind of do a cool superhero show and people were
01:10:44 ◼ ► like this isn't what I want in a superhero show this is like I have Marvel and DC I don't
01:10:48 ◼ ► I don't need this from you I think this is Lord of the Rings but it's it's not the main
01:10:53 ◼ ► series it's it's it'll be interesting to see what they do with that but it's hard to say
01:10:58 ◼ ► that Amazon Prime Video is in a bad position because they belong to Amazon. Amazon Prime
01:11:18 ◼ ► As a Prime member I often find myself going oh right Prime Video like it's the challenge
01:11:25 ◼ ► that they have there is that they're not quite a destination but when there's an original
01:11:39 ◼ ► and as somebody who's really used to having all my apps show me what I already get I find
01:11:45 ◼ ► that very confusing right like oh this isn't actually on Prime Video this is a for rent
01:12:04 ◼ ► shows great it's easy to access cool the lack of a good UI and UX in streaming services
01:12:17 ◼ ► impossible to browse whether it be you know Disney Plus search and Hulu search being terrible
01:12:22 ◼ ► it's like people I think a lot of entertainment companies getting into it forget that they
01:12:32 ◼ ► in at the tech company and then hired entertainment guys and we're like okay you guys have a list
01:12:44 ◼ ► I had a extended rant over several episodes of upgrade about Paramount Plus and it's terrible
01:12:59 ◼ ► like it was impossible to find anything and they did fix that but I heard from some people
01:13:03 ◼ ► who have inside knowledge of Paramount and CBS who are like yeah they you know basically
01:13:08 ◼ ► they don't prioritize the tech stack and you've got all this money you're spending on content
01:13:12 ◼ ► and you kind of need to pay attention to your technology or it's if you can't stream it
01:13:19 ◼ ► it's high demand your your stream better not die and you be it people need to find stuff
01:13:28 ◼ ► around and it's like table steak stuff for a good piece of software and yet some of these
01:13:34 ◼ ► incredibly large companies just didn't care they were so focused on programming the shows
01:13:40 ◼ ► which is important but delivery is important too right the advantage to cable right was
01:13:55 ◼ ► and great films and it's just if you want people to see it you know that there's a demand
01:14:03 ◼ ► accessibility easy accessibility does not mean that it just transformed to easy availability
01:14:18 ◼ ► the they had a first look photo of of Hawkeye the Hawkeye series that's coming this fall
01:14:23 ◼ ► with Jeremy Renner and Hadley Stanfield on it and that's that I've been struck watching
01:14:30 ◼ ► Loki which Myke and I talked about last week Loki and and WandaVision both that I I think
01:14:38 ◼ ► one of the big and the Mandalorian I'll throw that in here too one of the big questions
01:14:42 ◼ ► with Disney Plus was can they really execute TV a TV strategy with their film properties
01:14:54 ◼ ► two seasons of the Mandalorian and with those two of those three I didn't love Falcon Winter
01:14:59 ◼ ► Soldier but that felt like a Marvel movie turned into a TV show but Loki and WandaVision
01:15:16 ◼ ► that makes Disney Plus even more dangerous right yeah I mean I think the best thing Disney
01:15:27 ◼ ► under Kevin Feige you've got like Michael Waldron who oversaw Loki who helped with WandaVision
01:15:41 ◼ ► losing our talent to Marvel but how can you be mad they're going to Marvel and the smartest
01:15:50 ◼ ► lands with people in a weird absurdist way we're gonna tap the Rick and Morty team like
01:15:59 ◼ ► the greatest Star Wars thing of all time in the Clone Wars and so it's like this perfect
01:16:04 ◼ ► thing where they're going yeah we want you to do what you're doing no limitations increased
01:16:16 ◼ ► or whomever has to look out and go okay how can we make sure that all of our new series
01:16:27 ◼ ► play into Stranger Things and something that plays into another show that comes back that
01:16:31 ◼ ► people love you'll get there I have no doubt kind of about Netflix succeeding I don't think
01:16:40 ◼ ► goes you know every six weeks yeah new Marvel show new Star Wars show new Pixar show that
01:16:54 ◼ ► that we're gonna put here so Disney Plus has the beautiful advantage of programming slots
01:16:59 ◼ ► like they're just like okay we're gonna give Marvel three shows a year or four shows we're
01:17:03 ◼ ► gonna give Star Wars three shows a year you guys figure out what you want to do and we'll
01:17:07 ◼ ► just slot it in you're always you're always watching something on Disney Plus and that's
01:17:14 ◼ ► is absolutely an issue that they're probably gonna run into outside of families I think
01:17:23 ◼ ► can go if we are unnecessary if we're necessitating your home then we can charge you more every
01:17:28 ◼ ► year and you're just gonna pay it that works out for them so in other parts of the world
01:17:34 ◼ ► Disney has started putting essentially what is Hulu under a tab in the Disney app called
01:17:41 ◼ ► star after their star service that they bought that was big in India and it's big in some
01:17:46 ◼ ► other places too in the US we still have Hulu Hulu has its own app what what what's gonna
01:18:02 ◼ ► thing with different kinds of content that reach a different audience that they can bundle
01:18:06 ◼ ► with ESPN Plus and make a super bundle or is it all just going to be in Disney Plus yeah
01:18:11 ◼ ► the big question that the answer that question will happen after Disney pays out the rest
01:18:23 ◼ ► the valuation of what they'd have to pay out to Comcast is going to be under massive scrutiny
01:18:28 ◼ ► and so I think their whole thing right now is like we're gonna invest in Hulu which they're
01:18:31 ◼ ► doing a little bit of not I would not say they're investing too much but they are definitely
01:18:34 ◼ ► investing in they're definitely supporting it they're using FX to make it kind of a destination
01:18:43 ◼ ► who's being taken care of I think until Comcast gets paid out Disney's in this kind of hold
01:18:49 ◼ ► pattern where they're still developing originals they're still figure out what they want to
01:18:52 ◼ ► do but if Disney went yeah we can take Hulu in the US and make it a tab on on Disney Plus
01:19:03 ◼ ► you're getting so much out of it maybe they do that that might be something they do but
01:19:08 ◼ ► I think right now everything that I back when I was reporting everything that I heard from
01:19:12 ◼ ► inside at Disney was that they're stressing the bundle very hard but they like the bundle
01:19:23 ◼ ► ecosystem you talk about a walled garden it has people in there and they're happy to be
01:19:26 ◼ ► in there for or if they're not they feel like they have to be in there so I think Hulu will
01:19:41 ◼ ► again yeah one of the things that always stopped me was the whole like well Disney Plus is
01:19:46 ◼ ► family-friendly and and Hulu isn't but with star they've shown that they basically have
01:19:50 ◼ ► a thing that says for these users you can set up a lock you know and not show that content
01:19:55 ◼ ► and it's not if they want to do it they can do it but you're right there's strategy questions
01:20:05 ◼ ► Sopranos so yeah it's like their whole thing is like we know we don't you don't want your
01:20:08 ◼ ► two-year-old watching user profiles and you got to make it work Peacock so I don't want
01:20:22 ◼ ► this year I'm gonna do a minor Olympic rant here just to say that I appreciate that NBC
01:20:28 ◼ ► has put almost everything on somewhere but I think they really blew it with the Olympics
01:20:39 ◼ ► pieces that are in different places and like there's like five or six universal NBC cable
01:20:55 ◼ ► and then even on something like Peacock where you'd expect Olympics on demand you end up
01:20:59 ◼ ► that you can't get a lot of it on demand its organizational structure is really weird and
01:21:02 ◼ ► the part that really blows me away is they have these live streaming shows that are actually
01:21:09 ◼ ► they disappear and you can't get back to them you can't back up to the start of the show
01:21:14 ◼ ► and so on one level I find what they're doing kind of admirable and yet I think they blew
01:21:18 ◼ ► it because we live in an on-demand world and and it goes back to our conversation earlier
01:21:23 ◼ ► about you UI and technology is that you know if you're watching on TV plus two different
01:21:30 ◼ ► streaming apps or if you're an over-the-top kind of cord cutter like me now three different
01:21:41 ◼ ► find a very particular thing you can't tell is it in this app or that app or on this channel
01:21:46 ◼ ► or that channel and and like I don't know so that's that's my minor NBC rant is I appreciate
01:21:56 ◼ ► got to be a better solution to what they're doing oh yeah and Katie Keck who's a brilliant
01:22:01 ◼ ► reporter over at the verge she wrote kind of about this and broke down just the insanity
01:22:06 ◼ ► of it all um and I think I don't have any insight into this but I imagine what happened
01:22:11 ◼ ► with the Olympics Peacock was NBC had their AC Olympics a long time ago NBC did not have
01:22:20 ◼ ► watch we use the Olympics to bring people to Peacock and I imagine there were some advertisers
01:22:25 ◼ ► who were like we don't want to be there we think more people will watch at a bar or whatever
01:22:31 ◼ ► maybe uh at home whatever may be on NBC where you don't need cable like you just have it
01:22:35 ◼ ► and see playing or on the sports app you're doing that um and so they went okay cool we'll
01:22:43 ◼ ► kind of Olympic stuff we can bring over we'll negotiate and we'll make it a hub the mix
01:22:53 ◼ ► the destination to watch everything and it wasn't at one point I had to watch me on USA
01:23:01 ◼ ► um it's it's uh hellscape it's the word I use another day to talk about it it is a hellscape
01:23:06 ◼ ► um and I get that NBC needs to have stuff on Peacock and and you know there's this overall
01:23:10 ◼ ► demand for the Olympics and they want to spread it out they want to bring as many people into
01:23:15 ◼ ► wherever their ecosystem is I get that but I think you're just making uh people frustrated
01:23:26 ◼ ► will say the thing about Peacock specifically is it has a great great great catalog and
01:23:40 ◼ ► coming that Peacock is launching ranks pretty high like it's pretty good which is not surprising
01:23:45 ◼ ► are you like okay Jimmy Fallon people like to watch you've got Law and Order you've got
01:23:48 ◼ ► all the Bravo shows you've got all these things that NBC makes good television um where they
01:23:54 ◼ ► don't really have much demand for is originals they haven't had an original that's really
01:23:58 ◼ ► stuck and the number one goal with streaming is that uh um you kind of new highly anticipated
01:24:05 ◼ ► new movies and tv shows lead to mass acquisition of subscribers every catalog stackable content
01:24:10 ◼ ► retains your subscribers they have everything to retain people but what they don't have
01:24:15 ◼ ► anything to bring people in so my my curiosity is to see where the Peacock subscribers end
01:24:20 ◼ ► up post-olympics next quarter or the quarter after that I would love to know how many of
01:24:26 ◼ ► those new subscribers that are coming in for the Olympics stay to watch whether it's originals
01:24:30 ◼ ► to watch new license programming uh to watch library programming um I think that's where
01:24:38 ◼ ► to watch Law and Order it's also on Hulu because Comcast also have deals like it's so I think
01:24:50 ◼ ► to be a necessity I think right now they're an option yeah I I was I was thinking about
01:25:03 ◼ ► Peacock right now and that they're programming it like a network a little bit more than they
01:25:09 ◼ ► should because like okay I think I think there's good originals on Peacock um I think it's
01:25:14 ◼ ► weird like AP Bio was one of their first and that was literal it's a great show but it's
01:25:17 ◼ ► literally cancelled by NBC and then saved the next day by another part of NBC very strange
01:25:23 ◼ ► and again if it's got cancelled on NBC it's probably not a must watch on Peacock but but
01:25:28 ◼ ► I'm glad they did it because it's a good show and it'll be a catalog and people will find
01:25:32 ◼ ► it in 10 years and say oh my god why didn't I know about AP Bio but like they did Rutherford's
01:25:37 ◼ ► Falls that's from Myke Schur they did Girls 5 Eva that's from um basically from Tina Fey
01:25:46 ◼ ► Tina Fey content machine these are go-to NBC creators and the shows are fine but they didn't
01:25:58 ◼ ► have a must watch thing on a streaming service I don't know but that's the part that I find
01:26:04 ◼ ► befuddling is um it's not like they haven't done some decent originals it's that nobody
01:26:09 ◼ ► cares I mean this is there's there's a point that um the Netflix executives finally started
01:26:15 ◼ ► making their earnings reports which we had known for a while and then they finally acknowledged
01:26:18 ◼ ► it officially which was not only are we the home for your next favorite original series
01:26:23 ◼ ► to watch we are the home of discoverability which is a very key word for them we are the
01:26:35 ◼ ► 200 million homes people are finding it and they're liking it you know I think had Rutherford
01:26:50 ◼ ► are not looking at it I think the other thing that comes into play with Peacock specifically
01:27:00 ◼ ► distribute a lot of shows to Netflix and they're like also you can have some of our you know
01:27:05 ◼ ► I think Good Girls was one of them um where that was the Netflix kind of exclusively internationally
01:27:10 ◼ ► they had the global rights to it um that show ran three seasons and and you know finally
01:27:16 ◼ ► got cancelled but it did like decently I believe for Netflix uh where it was a global kind
01:27:20 ◼ ► of um rights even if it was in the US it was not and I think those are going to be interesting
01:27:28 ◼ ► originals is like what do we sell right what do we keep what do we try to make a Peacock
01:27:33 ◼ ► original and if you're still licensing a bunch of stuff you're not necessarily putting everything
01:27:51 ◼ ► uh Viacom CBS to an extent all within their own streaming services but still big big licensing
01:27:56 ◼ ► kind of partners and then you've got um the Sony's who are like we don't have any interest
01:28:01 ◼ ► in like launching a streaming service we're going to charge 10 times what we want because
01:28:08 ◼ ► are so the Netflix is in the Disney's pretty happy they get to be like yeah for the most
01:28:12 ◼ ► part we're exclusive Disney does some licensing but we're happy uh your Sony are pretty happy
01:28:16 ◼ ► we're licensing out you're charging more for it the other three is like well when do you
01:28:34 ◼ ► a little shaky but they've also had all those uh they've had a bunch of originals that have
01:28:39 ◼ ► gotten some more nominations and they've done their movie rollout this year so what are
01:28:48 ◼ ► on the up I'm still uh very much a a bull on HBO Max I think they will continue to grow
01:28:57 ◼ ► doing that team I know somewhat well uh and they are doing phenomenal things um I do think
01:29:03 ◼ ► that price point is going to hurt them until Netflix hits 15 at which point they can then
01:29:07 ◼ ► market it as we are the same price as Netflix to an extent or we are actually maybe they
01:29:40 ◼ ► new gossip girl HBO Max exclusive I want to watch the pretty little liars reboot I want
01:29:44 ◼ ► to watch you know Slimmy Gomez cooking show um and so I think they're fine I think them
01:29:49 ◼ ► partnering with with Discovery and whatever that ends up becoming whether it's a bundle
01:30:06 ◼ ► on I think it's easy to to say like I don't know if they can succeed I I can absolutely
01:30:15 ◼ ► bet against HBO right now I think it's gonna be hard to bet against HBO in five years how
01:30:20 ◼ ► about Paramount Plus yeah Paramount Plus is um I think you know kind of the one that I'm
01:30:34 ◼ ► libraries out of all of them they have Nickelodeon which is a huge asset they have you know BET
01:30:45 ◼ ► if they want them on other streaming services you know and I don't think if if ViacomCBS
01:30:51 ◼ ► wants Paramount Plus to succeed then what they really need to do is amp up their originals
01:30:55 ◼ ► and bring people in and they keep their library to retain and I think that's figuring out
01:31:03 ◼ ► to in order to do what they need and they're just not there yet all their focus is on their
01:31:13 ◼ ► on Nickelodeon is kind of a sell but Nickelodeon's a selling is in well SpongeBob's on Netflix
01:31:18 ◼ ► I might watch SpongeBob uh Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles on Netflix I'll watch that there
01:31:29 ◼ ► but I think until Paramount Plus starts to even you know Peacock doesn't have many originals
01:31:41 ◼ ► the earliest there are CBS all access now with the now that mom and dad are back together
01:31:46 ◼ ► I promise I was gonna say I mean they do have one franchise which is Star Trek and I pay
01:31:55 ◼ ► not enough like that is a nice piece as part of a larger strategy that does not exist so
01:32:02 ◼ ► I don't say this is a negative thing I think I've said this on other podcasts and and people
01:32:07 ◼ ► always see it as like a negative or like I'm dunking and I don't I don't mean it I think
01:32:11 ◼ ► it's a positive I think there are gonna be a few companies who in five to six years will
01:32:31 ◼ ► wants to buy it's a seller's market everybody wants to buy content I think it's really telling
01:32:35 ◼ ► also that I look at Paramount Plus and like they have they claim to have some global aspirations
01:32:39 ◼ ► but the truth is Star Trek is a great example of that and this goes all the way back to
01:32:43 ◼ ► the Les Moonves era you know they they built that for North America and they sold it to
01:32:48 ◼ ► the world on Netflix and then they also sold like Picard went to Amazon but basically they
01:32:54 ◼ ► they funded their shows by selling all of the streaming internationally to someone else
01:33:09 ◼ ► service and I I think you're right I don't know who it is and maybe it's Paramount Plus
01:33:14 ◼ ► maybe it's not but it seems unlikely that all of these services are gonna make it right
01:33:23 ◼ ► at some point or be bought yeah and again I don't think it's inherently a negative thing
01:33:33 ◼ ► bunch of stuff we have movies we have spider-man we have all these things we don't need a string
01:33:38 ◼ ► service because we know you need content to compete with all the other guys right I think
01:33:41 ◼ ► at the end of the day if there's three kind of you know companies that create as enough
01:33:47 ◼ ► demand for a string service alone by the by their own content I think Disney is undeniable
01:33:52 ◼ ► if you have kids and people will always have kids and also for just Star Wars Marvel adult
01:34:02 ◼ ► into it and the hits they are creating and the library that they do have makes them easy
01:34:06 ◼ ► and to your point just now the international stuff they're doing the local things they're
01:34:10 ◼ ► picking up and going okay we can distribute this internationally and now it's a Netflix
01:34:14 ◼ ► original very important and I do think I think HBO Max partnered kind of with discovery whatever
01:34:22 ◼ ► service that's pretty undeniable it's just got your perfect badge of like prestige entertainment
01:34:27 ◼ ► teen entertainment and unscripted stuff that people love everything else is a potential
01:34:37 ◼ ► I just also think NBC Universal and Viacom CBS have made a ton of great shows same with
01:34:42 ◼ ► Warner Brothers Television for other companies and that's fine I think if you can continue
01:34:58 ◼ ► think they need to have the room to experiment and not fail I don't like that term but to
01:35:14 ◼ ► don't have to worry about how it got to people that was Comcast who now owns right in AT&T
01:35:28 ◼ ► like what does that mean what's going on and we'll see I think the hassle will be a lot
01:35:36 ◼ ► is not there strategically it just makes more sense to become the content arms dealer right
01:35:41 ◼ ► sell to the highest bidder well Julia thank you so much for spending some time go we broke
01:35:46 ◼ ► it we broke it all down we solved it all yeah great figured it out it's all good ScarJo
01:35:52 ◼ ► call us we know what's going on so thank you so much where can people find you and your
01:35:57 ◼ ► stuff on the internet yeah so I'm on Twitter at loudmouth Julia and I write you know kind
01:36:03 ◼ ► of still pretty frequently prepared analytics so I have posts that go out from time to time
01:36:12 ◼ ► stuff and if you're still listening to this you are so thanks again thanks for being here
01:36:17 ◼ ► on upgrade thank you so much I really appreciate it hey Jason hey hey Myke hi Jason are you
01:36:24 ◼ ► back from your vacation already yes okay well since you're here I had to read that one ad
01:36:30 ◼ ► and I'm really much more comfortable if you do it can you do this last yeah well you know
01:36:34 ◼ ► what I'll be happy to Jason because this episode is brought to you by hello hello make incredibly
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01:37:10 ◼ ► so the pillow can be just the way that you like it now I'm going to pull back the curtain
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01:38:33 ◼ ► I have way more lasers wow you know well you've got them stored up that might be the first
01:38:38 ◼ ► time I've ever done that and it felt really really good I guess it means that it's time
01:38:43 ◼ ► for hashtag ask upgrade yes the first comes from Miff Digital who asks do you think that
01:39:02 ◼ ► I have a theory I think we talked about this a couple weeks ago I think this is going to
01:39:12 ◼ ► look every different any different and people be like oh that's boring and on the inside
01:39:17 ◼ ► it's going to have some wild stuff that's like way better internally in terms of camera
01:39:22 ◼ ► or processor or who knows what else sensors what other stuff they're going to do so that's
01:39:27 ◼ ► going to be I feel like that's not a bad prediction to make to say that I think it will look the
01:39:31 ◼ ► same and actually be way better on the inside because that's you know it's sort of a different
01:39:37 ◼ ► set of motivation some people are motivated by looks some people are motivated by specs
01:39:42 ◼ ► they can't change the look every year they can change the specs every year more or less
01:39:58 ◼ ► price for the latest and greatest I think for this year if you could imagine or if your
01:40:07 ◼ ► budget would allow that you would be getting a pro phone I think it's going to be a big
01:40:13 ◼ ► upgrade yeah because I think that the promotion display which is very likely to come to this
01:40:20 ◼ ► year's phone it would be what I would be flabbergasted if they didn't make it work this time right
01:40:26 ◼ ► I think that's going to make a big big big change to the iPhone experience maybe always
01:40:31 ◼ ► on display too right that's a exact that could be a really nice feature and probably on the
01:40:35 ◼ ► pro phone yeah I think you're right if you're if you're looking for just a 12 and you can
01:40:43 ◼ ► you're coming down on that side of the fence of features and price I think you could probably
01:40:50 ◼ ► just go ahead I think it would be worth getting the deal because the difference will probably
01:40:54 ◼ ► just be like better camera and like the camera is always better if you're coming from an
01:40:58 ◼ ► eight plus the camera is going to be so much better for you going to the 12 that I would
01:41:03 ◼ ► just go to the 12 but if you think that you would be tempted to go for a 12 pro like that
01:41:19 ◼ ► year with that screen I think it's going to be awesome yeah Raghada asks many people believe
01:41:26 ◼ ► that the M1 in the iPad pro creates a perception that it is a grown-up computing device what
01:41:45 ◼ ► many people believe the M1 in the iPad creates a perception that it is a quote grown-up computing
01:42:05 ◼ ► asking me and now I don't understand what this question means so I think I'm just gonna
01:42:11 ◼ ► so my own well for the question here's what it is the idea we've said that the by putting
01:42:16 ◼ ► the M1 in the iPad it makes it seem like a grown-up computing device because it's using
01:42:21 ◼ ► a Mac chip and Raghada is asking the reverse which is does having it in the iPad give any
01:42:27 ◼ ► kind of like cache to the Mac oh all right cool I got it hey everybody welcome to interpreting
01:42:34 ◼ ► ask upgrade questions with Myke and Jason third time's a charm many people believe that
01:42:40 ◼ ► the M1 in the iPad creates a perception that it is a grown-up computing device what are
01:42:45 ◼ ► your thoughts on the perception that the M1 in the iPad would then give towards the Mac
01:42:55 ◼ ► it shares cooler with the iPad or modern cooler or not right like it's I could imagine some
01:43:01 ◼ ► people going oh this is just an iPad chat boys is an iPhone chip I bet there are people
01:43:14 ◼ ► the iPad rub off favorably on the Mac as well I think the answer is yes Apple has spread
01:43:19 ◼ ► that out over time but if you remember when the you know Apple has used like the MacBook
01:43:26 ◼ ► rolled out and they said that 12-inch MacBook I mean like this is from the people who who
01:43:31 ◼ ► made the iPad right and they've been trying to bring iPad like features to their laptops
01:43:36 ◼ ► especially and I mean the iMac is like a giant iPad too when you look at it right like I
01:43:48 ◼ ► this which is what Apple is trying to do is have the M1 on the iPad be like oh it's serious
01:43:53 ◼ ► it's like like a Mac chip and on the Mac side I think maybe not with the chip so much but
01:44:05 ◼ ► the iPad and the kind of that kind of attitude and the cachet if there is any with the iPad
01:44:10 ◼ ► to be like drive that into Mac design so that the Mac feels more cutting-edge or modern
01:44:30 ◼ ► that smartphones and tablets have really raised our expectations for what a mobile device
01:44:38 ◼ ► it's really great I do think it benefits from being more iPad like in terms of battery life
01:44:43 ◼ ► and things like that but there are still things that it doesn't do that the iPad does that
01:44:46 ◼ ► frustrate me like why does it do it this way and the answer is always because computers
01:44:51 ◼ ► used to do that and so I think that Apple philosophically Apple wants the Mac and especially
01:45:03 ◼ ► an iPad but in the way it behaves in terms of some features so like the one that I always
01:45:09 ◼ ► complain about is on my iPad if I close the cover and put it to sleep and I'm listening
01:45:13 ◼ ► to music and my headphones from the iPad the music still plays and if you close the cover
01:45:38 ◼ ► Mac I don't think necessarily it's to answer this question it's the M1 that's doing that
01:45:52 ◼ ► And Patrick asks which body part Jason would you trade for an iPad OS version of BB edit?
01:46:09 ◼ ► is it's a text editor I can use other text editors to do what I want on iPad OS I might
01:46:28 ◼ ► and some of the the scripting tools that are over there I'm okay I'd love to see it because
01:46:33 ◼ ► I think that having more connection between BB edit on the Mac and on the iPad would be
01:46:52 ◼ ► at this point it would be great but it's it's not enough there's there are other options
01:47:01 ◼ ► If you would like to send in a question for us to answer on the show just send out a tweet
01:47:09 ◼ ► members discord which you can get access to if you sign up for upgrade plus go to getupgradeplus.com