418: Cocktail of Headwinds
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From Relay FM, this is Upgrade, Episode 418.
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Today's show is brought to you by Sourcegraph, Bombas, and Capital One.
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My name is Myke Hurley, I'm joined by Jason Snow. Hi, Jason.
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Oh, hi, Jason.
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How are you?
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I'm good. That was very, like, mellow introduction.
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I just, you know, you said hi-- I was ready for a "Hi Jason" Snell,
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and I was gonna do my "Hi Myke" early, and then you're like, "Hi Jason."
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I'm like, "Oh, hi Myke."
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Keep you guessing.
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How's it going?
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I have a #SnellTalk question for you. It comes from Savva, who wants to know,
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"Jason, do you brew multiple pots of tea with the same tea leaves,
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or do you replace the leaves after every pot of tea?"
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I replace the leaves with every pot of tea.
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You could-- you can do it. They don't taste as good.
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They're weaker and sometimes they can be more bitter.
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And I've decided that if I'm like,
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I buy loose tea in bulk,
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I can afford to just make another pot of tea
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with fresh leaves.
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So the old leaves go in the little compost can
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and the new leaves go in the tea robot
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and I make another pot of tea.
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That's how we do it.
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- La-di-da, look at you, you know?
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- Yeah, yeah.
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I mean, in a pit, I used to not,
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but then it's better this way, so I just do it. It's fine. Again, I buy it in bulk. Like,
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it helps to buy it in bulk. I understand when you're in situations where you have limited
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tea or you've got a tea bag and you just use it and like, "Can I use it again?" The answer
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is you can use it again. It's not as good, but you can. I don't, though, anymore.
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If you would like to help us open an episode of the show and learn more about Jason Snow,
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you can always send in tweets.
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the hashtag snow talk or use question mark snow talk in the relay FM members
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discord I mean ultimately it's just what this is right like this is people
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trying to learn more about you yeah I mean it can really be it's it's AMA it's
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a it's a world slowest low MA yeah I like that that's what it is
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speaking of a maze it's something we started doing for relay FM members
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there's a new show called spotlight we mentioned before you've been done an
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episode and Christina Warren's done an episode. This is content which is given
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out to all Relay FM members in the crossover feed but you can get access to
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this and also Upgrade Plus if you go to getupgradeplus.com you will get
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longer episodes of upgraded bonus content just $5 a month or $50 a year.
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We have some, I don't know, this is interesting for me anyway and maybe it's
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interesting for other people. We have some a change here on the upgrade
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program, I am no longer editing the upgrade program.
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Uh, we are now handed over the brains to Jim Metzendorf.
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Uh, Jim edits a ton of content at Relay FM, like Rocket with Simone, Brianna, and
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Christina, Roboism with Alex and Kathy, Mac Power users David and Steven, and
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Tanwa Ibracul- he does some of my shows, uh, Analog and Remaster for some of them.
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I've edited Upgrade for 100 years, eight years,
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seven years, seven, eight years.
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- Since the beginning, since episode one.
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- Yeah, and I need to make some changes in my schedule.
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And I'm here until very late every Monday.
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And so Jim is gonna be doing it.
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If I sound weird today,
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I'm a little emotional about this, Jason.
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It's quite a complicated thing for me.
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- I just went through this
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because I edited The Incomparable for 11 years.
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And earlier this year, I handed that off to Steven Schapansky
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and it is great.
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So when you came to me and said,
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"I'm thinking of not editing the show anymore,"
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I thought, "Well, it worked really well for me.
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It's gonna work well for you."
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It is one of those things.
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I know I've told this on the show before,
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but in January, I did my little offsite
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in where I went to Sonoma for a couple of days
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and I just thought about my business
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and like big picture stuff instead of the nitty gritty.
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And one of the things that I realized
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is that after seven plus years of doing a small business,
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there are things you do when you start a small business
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because who else is there to do it?
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So you do them all.
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And then seven years pass and you think,
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why am I still doing this?
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I can do this, but should I be doing this?
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And that led me to divest myself of a bunch of tasks
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that I didn't need to be doing anymore,
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including editing the incomparable every week.
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and it is the best thing.
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And so I think this is gonna be really good for you.
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I think reclaiming that time,
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it's hard because you're giving away your control
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of the final product,
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which was hard for me for the incomparable.
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We talked about your note-taking apparatus that you have
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to give yourself notes about what we say
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and when we cross talk and all of those things
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that you're gonna have to sort of adapt your process there.
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But it also means that when we're done,
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you're done with upgrade.
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And I'll tell you, I see these incomparable episodes go out
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on a Friday morning now, and I like think to myself,
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oh yeah, right.
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Because it's just, it's that one layer of remove
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where I haven't spent five hours sweating over it.
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Instead, it's just, it just happens and it's out there
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and it's a great feeling.
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So good for you for promoting
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your work-life balance a little bit.
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- Yeah, it's a weird thing.
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I don't want to let it go, but I think I need to.
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But it's just very strange.
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"Yeah, well, that's how I felt about 'Incomparable'
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is the same thing."
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Which is, I really don't, I still don't like the fact
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that I don't have very specific control
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over exactly what the episode is.
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And Steven and Erica, his wife, went on a road trip
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and I had to edit the "Incomparable" the other week.
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And it was one of those things where on the one hand,
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it was really kind of delightful.
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It was like, "Oh yes, I can take complete control
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of this episode again."
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And also every minute I did it, I thought,
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"Wow, I don't need to do this anymore."
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So it'll be good.
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Also, as an aside, we did a verticals episode last week,
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which was because we couldn't record on the Monday.
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We prerecorded the verticals episode
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where we interviewed people and that was a lot of fun.
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And we got a lot of really positive feedback about it
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from people who were very happy
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that we talked to our three guests
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and got a lot of feedback of like,
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"Oh, that was great.
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You guys should do more guests."
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And more guests,
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Guest is a lot of work, scheduling guest's work,
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interviewing guest's work, it's a lot of extra work.
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However, you know what, I feel like we might,
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I'm not committing to anything now,
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but I feel like we're more capable of doing something
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like having more guests on from time to time,
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now that you're not editing the show every week.
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- One of the reasons we would so seldom have guests
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on the show is 'cause I don't like to edit guest audio.
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- Yeah, no simple answer, right, there it is.
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- It's much more complicated, you know,
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considering the time, because it was,
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the issue for me has always been
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that the edit starts really late.
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The edit starts for me kind of maybe
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around 8 p.m. on a Monday.
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And if you added a guest in,
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you've probably doubled the edit time.
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Especially if you're waiting on audio
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to come through with some people.
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It can, yeah, so it's just like a whole thing.
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And so to not have to have potential issues,
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I would kind of discourage having guests
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because I just couldn't add it in very often
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unless it was all planned out well in advance.
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But now that's not so much of a concern anymore
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which is why we actually have another guest segment
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later on in this episode
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and then we have some more later on in a month.
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And so, yeah.
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So that's some of our fun though, but we will do more.
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I think we'll be able to do more outside of that.
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- Yeah, I think it has been something
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that we've tried to really limit ourselves
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to sort of those special Apple guest opportunities
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and some Summer of Fun stuff.
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And maybe we'll do some more of it.
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We're definitely gonna do more of it this summer.
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And then we'll just see how it goes and how it progresses.
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But I know it's a big step
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and I know that it probably is uncomfortable for you,
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but I think it's gonna be good.
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And if the show sounds different
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and there are weird things about it,
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we're working on it.
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It's the beginning of a new era on the production side.
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Hopefully it just doesn't matter and you don't notice
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and it's all fine.
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And thank you to Jim.
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- Thanks, Jim.
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- And also to finish follow up this week,
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everyone here at the Outgrade Program
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would like to congratulate the Morin family
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on the birth of their son.
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Dan and Kat had a baby
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and Dan also published his book the same week.
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So, what a week. - Because why not?
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If you're gonna do both things,
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why not do them at the same time?
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It means I'm all alone over at Six Colors.
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I'm like, this is the summer of solitude for me over there now.
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You're the one really struggling right now.
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Yeah, oh yeah, it's really about me.
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Not about like a baby, whatever, you know, whatever.
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But I am blogging alone.
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The big problem is that Six Colors podcast that members get
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because that's me and Dan.
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And I've gotten guests the last two weeks.
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I'm not planning that out as much as I should.
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It's like, geez, what am I going to do this week?
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Friends, I don't know what I'm gonna do this week. No idea, but we'll figure it out. I'll
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figure it out.
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I'm waiting for the call up. I know it's gonna come at some point.
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Yeah. Oh, it undoubtedly will. Like, I mean, how many people do I even know? They're all
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gonna get the call at some point.
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Actually, you're gonna have to run out.
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Rumor round up, Jason Snell.
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Got a couple of little things this week, all coming from the Sheriff himself across various
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avenues. The first is an interview, some tidbits from an interview that Mark Gurman did with
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YouTuber Max Tech, I think has become a bit more prominent recently in our circle, I think
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is doing a lot of the thermal tests of various computers. But very successful YouTuber, but
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sometimes these people just come into our like remit somehow and this is it. Anyway,
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one of the some of the things Mark said Apple had an M1 Pro Mac Pro ready so
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like that was something that they had set they were ready to go on it but
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decided to hold off until M2 I don't know why they made that decision but I
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think that was actually the right decision. Mark is now expecting the Mac
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Pro with an M2 chip in it or M2 based chip in it not M2 can you imagine the
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Mac Pro of an M2. It's like, how's your phone was now? But no, with an M2 based something.
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M2 Extreme, M2 Max maybe. This is now expected to be announced later this year, shipping
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sometime in 2023. Fine. Okay, sure. Mark Gurman doesn't expect there to be a redesign of the
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Mac Mini. Just for there to be spec bumps in the future. I think that makes a lot of
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sense considering the way the Mac Studio looks.
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Yeah, the redesigned Mac Mini rumors were about the Mac Studio, so, and to Mark Gurman's
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credit, I think he got that right, that when he said it was like a new thing that looks
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like a tall mini Mac Pro.
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Right, but there were people that were saying it was going to have like plexiglass on the
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top and all that kind of stuff.
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Yeah, those were the weird rumors, but I think Gurman did a pretty good job of zeroing in
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on the Mac Studio, even though he, I think he described it as being a tall Mac Mini or
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a mini Mac Pro and I think he was probably more right than wrong there. So yeah, sure,
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Mac Mini is fine. It doesn't need to be reinvented.
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And once again saying that an iMac Pro is currently in active development and he expects
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it to be available next year sometime.
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Sure sounds like the bigger iMac is going to be an iMac Pro, at least in his mind. I
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think that there's marketing questions there, but I think it's interesting that that's
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That's how he refers to it.
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I mean, I wouldn't, I mean, we've had this conversation a million times and we'll have
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a million times more.
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I don't know why you would do a bigger Amek and not call it the Amek Pro.
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Yeah, no, it makes sense.
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Given what, how they name their products, it's going to be more expensive.
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It's probably going to have more capability in terms of the chips that are available on
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And so sure, why wouldn't you?
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Speaking of products that might get bigger and potentially called Pro, the rugged Apple
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Apple Watch Extreme as we've called it around here but could be called Apple Watch Pro apparently
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is one of the names being suggested.
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In Mark's Power On newsletter he gave a few more details about this.
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So we spoke some time ago whether it was last week or the week before I don't remember because
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we prerecorded that the rugged Apple Watch would be made of metal which wasn't what we
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were expecting.
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We were thinking we had Casio G-Shock in our minds right?
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Cover that thing in silicon.
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but no, they will be made of metal,
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and Mark is now expecting it to be some adjusted formulation
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of titanium to make it even more durable.
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It's the pro-materials, pro-watch.
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-I'm listening to "After Steve," the book about --
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I thought it was about Johnny Ive,
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but it's also about Tim Cook.
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I don't know why my brain -- -It's 'cause of the marketing.
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-I think you're right, right?
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Like all of the excerpts seem to be about Johnny Ive.
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And so it's about the both of them.
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But one of the things they were,
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I just heard a couple of days ago when listening to it,
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they were talking about how they reformulated,
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like formulated their own gold for the Apple Watch.
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And I also remember, and I've heard over time,
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that Apple, because of the Apple Watch,
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kind of hired and then created their own like
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metallurgy team.
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And so like, this is a thing for them.
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Like they create new formulations of metals
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to do what they need them to do.
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- Yeah, they were already, I mean,
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I read something at some point that said that
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Apple might have the best collection of people
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who understand how to use aluminum in the world.
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- That they had already, and it makes sense, right?
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Like they've been basing their computers on aluminum
00:14:19
◼
►
for 12, 13, I mean, it's been a long time now
00:14:24
◼
►
and I've heard that that is one of the things
00:14:26
◼
►
that they have gotten very good at
00:14:28
◼
►
is exactly what kind of aluminum they want.
00:14:31
◼
►
And then remember, they started boasting
00:14:33
◼
►
about this specific kind of stainless steel they used
00:14:37
◼
►
in the Apple Watch or in the ring around the iPhone Pro.
00:14:40
◼
►
Like they have metallurgy opinions.
00:14:44
◼
►
And so was it surprising that they might do
00:14:46
◼
►
a reformulated titanium that they feel
00:14:48
◼
►
they can boast about on stage
00:14:50
◼
►
as being extra rugged and resilient?
00:14:52
◼
►
I'm not surprised at all.
00:14:53
◼
►
- Mark also said that this Apple Watch will be a quote,
00:14:57
◼
►
good bit bigger so it might only appeal to a subset of customers. I wonder what the story
00:15:04
◼
►
is going to be for the size change because like just as I think about it, I don't understand
00:15:08
◼
►
why a watch for extreme sports needs to be bigger. So I'm intrigued what they're going
00:15:14
◼
►
to say as to why that is.
00:15:17
◼
►
I think it's not going to be that complicated. I really don't. I was having this chat with
00:15:20
◼
►
somebody else the other day. I think that if we think of this as Apple Watch Pro and
00:15:26
◼
►
we think of it as a bigger Apple Watch, everything else falls into place, which is why is it
00:15:31
◼
►
bigger? Well, because we're giving you three different versions now. There's the two smaller
00:15:36
◼
►
versions and then there's the Apple Watch Pro, which is bigger. It has more battery.
00:15:39
◼
►
It has a bigger screen. You can see more stuff. Yay. Like, I really think that that's all
00:15:44
◼
►
the explanation that there's going to be is now we have three sizes of watch. And the
00:15:48
◼
►
most expensive one is this big fancy one with the great materials. And let me tell you the
00:15:53
◼
►
story about, you know, why it's great, but I don't know if there'll be more of a size
00:15:59
◼
►
change than that, then that it's a bigger screen and more battery and those are things
00:16:04
◼
►
that people like.
00:16:05
◼
►
I 100% think that you are right there, but I'm just intrigued if they're gonna have some
00:16:10
◼
►
other like reason that they, you know, maybe there's something that they're gonna do in
00:16:16
◼
►
software where you can see more of the workout or whatever, I don't know.
00:16:21
◼
►
I don't know. I think the thing to keep your eye on,
00:16:24
◼
►
I think as we're all watching this event,
00:16:26
◼
►
when it unfolds in September, presumably like the sixth,
00:16:31
◼
►
maybe the 13th, something like that.
00:16:34
◼
►
I haven't heard a rumor about that yet,
00:16:37
◼
►
but it's always about the same time.
00:16:39
◼
►
The thing to watch is how they talk about
00:16:43
◼
►
the sport component of it versus the just,
00:16:47
◼
►
it's an Apple Watch component of it.
00:16:48
◼
►
because if it's Apple Watch Pro,
00:16:51
◼
►
I think it's still gonna have
00:16:53
◼
►
a little bit of a sport narrative to it,
00:16:56
◼
►
but not the only narrative to it.
00:16:58
◼
►
That they're gonna boast about,
00:17:00
◼
►
well, what can we do with this battery life?
00:17:02
◼
►
Well, the answer is, and we made it more resilient,
00:17:05
◼
►
which is great for people who use it in sports,
00:17:07
◼
►
which they already use the Apple Watch in sports.
00:17:09
◼
►
You could argue that all Apple Watches
00:17:10
◼
►
are kind of sports watches, kind of,
00:17:13
◼
►
and so this is also that.
00:17:14
◼
►
But if they do something like is rumored,
00:17:16
◼
►
where they do a wilderness mode or whatever,
00:17:20
◼
►
where it goes into extreme battery saving,
00:17:22
◼
►
but it's still doing logging and you can crank it up
00:17:26
◼
►
and crank it down as needed.
00:17:28
◼
►
And the extra battery life allows it to do that.
00:17:31
◼
►
And maybe this is the one that does the wacky
00:17:34
◼
►
kind of emergency signal to the satellite
00:17:37
◼
►
and all of that stuff.
00:17:38
◼
►
There's a story they can tell about that,
00:17:40
◼
►
but I think they have to balance it
00:17:41
◼
►
with not wanting to come across as this is a sports watch
00:17:45
◼
►
because I don't think they want to do that because I think they probably envision that
00:17:50
◼
►
a lot of people are going to buy it because they like the most expensive thing and bigger
00:17:55
◼
►
is better and more battery life and they don't want to turn them away like, "Are you an extreme
00:18:01
◼
►
sports enthusiast?" "No." "Well, then you can't buy our expensive watch."
00:18:04
◼
►
- Yeah, I think you're right actually because also as I'm thinking, you know, for those
00:18:08
◼
►
of us that have been around for long enough, the aluminium one used to be called sport.
00:18:14
◼
►
did. Right and so like the reasoning there was like it's the cheapest,
00:18:19
◼
►
the lightest, you can ding it the most, it's you know like it's for sports so
00:18:23
◼
►
it'd be strange now to be like hey this one's for sports and it's the most
00:18:27
◼
►
expensive one you know so I think I'm coming around now even though I
00:18:32
◼
►
will always miss it if they don't call it extremes because I think that's funny
00:18:36
◼
►
but calling it pro is like hey if you're an athlete you can use this if you are
00:18:43
◼
►
work in 26 hour days you can use this and it's gonna protect you about you
00:18:48
◼
►
know you and I have the battery life that you want like maybe just pro as in
00:18:52
◼
►
biggest bestest is probably what they'll go with because that's what they do. I
00:18:56
◼
►
think it's the most logical way to approach this especially if it's
00:19:00
◼
►
titanium and is gonna look like a big Apple watch and not look kind of weird
00:19:04
◼
►
and different then it's just an addition to the product line I think that's all
00:19:09
◼
►
it is. Zach in the Discord says Apple Watch Max which could also fill the
00:19:13
◼
►
fulfill the same thing especially if it's gonna be physically bigger because
00:19:17
◼
►
then that matches what the iPhone will be because it's probably hmm I wonder
00:19:25
◼
►
what they'll do you think they'll call the bigger regular one iPhone 14 Max? Yes.
00:19:32
◼
►
So then that Apple Watch Max could work just as nicely. Could be, could be. I also
00:19:37
◼
►
wonder how it's going to be positioned in relationship to the other Apple
00:19:41
◼
►
watches, because you could also say we have three sizes of Apple Watch now and
00:19:45
◼
►
just say that. Probably not. They'll probably differentiate in some way. So
00:19:50
◼
►
yeah, Apple Watch Max could be. Could be. But I think Sport is, you know, Sport is
00:19:55
◼
►
probably not on the agenda for this one. An evolution of the current rectangular
00:19:59
◼
►
shape, no flat size. Yeah. This is, this is just gonna be a big Apple Watch with a
00:20:04
◼
►
a big screen and a big battery,
00:20:07
◼
►
and then maybe some features that are enabled.
00:20:10
◼
►
Like I said, I keep coming back to David Smith
00:20:13
◼
►
trying to take an Apple Watch out in the woods for a week
00:20:16
◼
►
and thinking there's a story,
00:20:18
◼
►
there's some software that you add
00:20:20
◼
►
and you use the big battery,
00:20:22
◼
►
and now you've got a story to tell about it
00:20:24
◼
►
as a thing you can take hiking or whatever,
00:20:27
◼
►
but it's just one part of the story of like,
00:20:30
◼
►
it's also just an Apple Watch, that's nice.
00:20:32
◼
►
and on a redesign, adding in a new watch this year
00:20:36
◼
►
gives them another year until they need to do a redesign.
00:20:38
◼
►
Right, like they can just be like,
00:20:40
◼
►
hey, we added a new one
00:20:42
◼
►
and they can just keep pushing that redesign off
00:20:44
◼
►
into the distance, which makes me sad.
00:20:47
◼
►
- This episode of Upgrade is brought to you
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by our friends over at Sourcegraph.
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00:22:33
◼
►
Apple earnings time Jason Snell charts day big charts day around here what what
00:22:42
◼
►
they was this Thursday of last week I think yes yeah that's it so let me give
00:22:49
◼
►
some top-line reporting and we can break into some of this 83 billion dollars in
00:22:56
◼
►
revenue that is up 2% year-over-year 19.4 billion dollars in profit that's
00:23:02
◼
►
It's down from $21.7 billion this time last year,
00:23:07
◼
►
this quarter last year.
00:23:09
◼
►
iPhone was up 3%, the Mac was down 10%,
00:23:12
◼
►
the iPad was down 2%, services up 12%,
00:23:17
◼
►
but for the first time, it is down $200 million in revenue
00:23:23
◼
►
from the previous quarter.
00:23:26
◼
►
I wanna dig into that in a little bit in a minute.
00:23:29
◼
►
Wearables were also down 8% year over year.
00:23:32
◼
►
It's not the first time, by the way.
00:23:33
◼
►
Two years ago, they had a sequential drop
00:23:35
◼
►
between Q2 and Q3.
00:23:37
◼
►
So it hasn't gone down, but it is not the first time
00:23:42
◼
►
that it's had a little bit of a sequential drop.
00:23:44
◼
►
It hasn't done a year over year drop
00:23:46
◼
►
since we've been watching it.
00:23:48
◼
►
But it did do a sequential drop two years ago
00:23:50
◼
►
at the same time.
00:23:51
◼
►
So it seems to be a thing that happens
00:23:53
◼
►
is that Q3 is just weaker than Q2 for services.
00:23:56
◼
►
- Interesting.
00:23:57
◼
►
It's just interesting to see now
00:23:58
◼
►
because it's been multiple years
00:24:00
◼
►
of this just like massive, just continual growth.
00:24:05
◼
►
That was where it stuck out to me
00:24:08
◼
►
and I didn't notice that one.
00:24:08
◼
►
So thank you for the correction there, Jason Snow.
00:24:11
◼
►
- It was a very similar one two years ago.
00:24:12
◼
►
They were 13% year over year up,
00:24:15
◼
►
but down sequentially just a little bit.
00:24:17
◼
►
- I'll be keen to see if this continues
00:24:20
◼
►
the way we would normally expect it to,
00:24:22
◼
►
which is just to keep going up.
00:24:23
◼
►
And it's just for some reason,
00:24:24
◼
►
we just ignore this one that goes down.
00:24:26
◼
►
But it stuck out to me as it's been multiple years then,
00:24:29
◼
►
not never, but it's been multiple years
00:24:30
◼
►
since we've had this.
00:24:32
◼
►
And it's one of those things where I kind of can't
00:24:35
◼
►
put my finger on why.
00:24:37
◼
►
- So I think they said that part of services,
00:24:42
◼
►
believe it or not, is ad revenue from search ads.
00:24:48
◼
►
- Oh, I do believe it, yeah.
00:24:50
◼
►
- So I think that they say that that is where
00:24:53
◼
►
some of this came from,
00:24:56
◼
►
is that there was weakness in the ad market.
00:24:58
◼
►
- This makes me annoyed 'cause I hadn't considered this.
00:25:01
◼
►
'Cause did you see last week that they're adding ads?
00:25:06
◼
►
- In the App Store in more places now?
00:25:10
◼
►
- And now I'm expecting that this is in response to that.
00:25:14
◼
►
- And that makes me just, just stop Apple, come on.
00:25:18
◼
►
- I hate ads in the App Store, I hate it.
00:25:21
◼
►
- I shouldn't do this.
00:25:22
◼
►
- They spin it, somebody asked them on the call,
00:25:24
◼
►
it was in my little Mac world piece,
00:25:25
◼
►
I gave some awards out.
00:25:28
◼
►
I like to occasionally give awards out to analysts
00:25:31
◼
►
for the various attempts they do
00:25:32
◼
►
to make Apple answer their questions,
00:25:36
◼
►
which they don't answer.
00:25:37
◼
►
But I wanted to give Richard Kramer of REACH Research
00:25:42
◼
►
a little gold star.
00:25:46
◼
►
He asked a very pointed question about app,
00:25:48
◼
►
he may be not asked back after this,
00:25:52
◼
►
about app tracking transparency
00:25:54
◼
►
and how it was related directly
00:25:56
◼
►
to Apple's own App Store search advertising, right?
00:26:00
◼
►
'Cause it's not a third party ad
00:26:02
◼
►
if we serve it to you ourselves, right?
00:26:06
◼
►
So, you know, that's the argument
00:26:07
◼
►
about Apple's policy toward Facebook is that,
00:26:10
◼
►
although they talk about privacy being a human right,
00:26:12
◼
►
the other thing they're doing
00:26:13
◼
►
is basically making the only place you can market apps
00:26:16
◼
►
be in the App Store and Apple sells all the ads there.
00:26:19
◼
►
And so this was a pointed question,
00:26:22
◼
►
I think a good question.
00:26:24
◼
►
And Tim Cook's response was, he read the boilerplate
00:26:26
◼
►
about privacy being a fundamental human right.
00:26:28
◼
►
And then he said, "Search ads are great for the developers
00:26:31
◼
►
because they can reach people who are looking for apps."
00:26:35
◼
►
That was it, that was all he said.
00:26:36
◼
►
And I think search ads are awful
00:26:39
◼
►
and they're only good for Apple.
00:26:41
◼
►
And because the reason I think they're awful
00:26:44
◼
►
is because it means that if you're a developer,
00:26:46
◼
►
you can't just develop your app.
00:26:47
◼
►
You actually have to take some of the money
00:26:49
◼
►
that you make from your app
00:26:50
◼
►
in order to advertise on the name of your app
00:26:55
◼
►
in order to have your app come up
00:26:58
◼
►
when people search for your app.
00:27:01
◼
►
And I think it's offensive and stupid.
00:27:03
◼
►
And it is, yeah, it's one of my least favorite things
00:27:07
◼
►
that Apple does is App Store ad revenue.
00:27:09
◼
►
And yes, they are doubling down.
00:27:10
◼
►
They have now added, if you scroll down
00:27:12
◼
►
in an app's description page, not on search,
00:27:15
◼
►
and it's down toward the bottom,
00:27:17
◼
►
but you literally, there are ads down there.
00:27:19
◼
►
There's like other apps from this developer,
00:27:21
◼
►
and then right below it is basically,
00:27:23
◼
►
these are ads, probably for their competitors.
00:27:26
◼
►
- But then I think the worst that they're adding
00:27:28
◼
►
is they're going to be adding the ability
00:27:30
◼
►
for somebody to have an ad in the Today page.
00:27:35
◼
►
And you can kind of, and it kind of looks like
00:27:39
◼
►
Apple's official content that they make.
00:27:42
◼
►
Like it's got one of those big squares.
00:27:44
◼
►
- Yeah, but it's an ad.
00:27:46
◼
►
It annoys me because all advertising is advertising
00:27:50
◼
►
and I really don't like these two things happening at once.
00:27:54
◼
►
I don't like the way it looks, right?
00:27:56
◼
►
Like I don't like Apple kind of kneecapping other companies
00:28:01
◼
►
and then also increasing their own ad opportunities.
00:28:07
◼
►
- No, it's quite a racket.
00:28:08
◼
►
I mean, I'm sure I'm aware of the arguments
00:28:11
◼
►
for doing App Store advertising,
00:28:14
◼
►
but fundamentally, I think it is Apple applying
00:28:17
◼
►
an additional tax to its own developers.
00:28:21
◼
►
And as much as it boasts about,
00:28:23
◼
►
Apple will boast about advertising revenue,
00:28:26
◼
►
and it will boast about the money it gives to developers
00:28:29
◼
►
as part of the, you know, and I phrase it that way,
00:28:31
◼
►
I guess, on purpose,
00:28:32
◼
►
'cause Apple does sometimes view it as being
00:28:34
◼
►
that they're giving it to developers.
00:28:35
◼
►
The developers earned it, and then Apple took a percentage,
00:28:37
◼
►
and then the rest of it goes to developers.
00:28:39
◼
►
But my point here is, those two things are related,
00:28:42
◼
►
'cause all that money that they're getting in ad revenue
00:28:45
◼
►
for app advertising, it's coming out of that pot.
00:28:48
◼
►
It's deducted essentially
00:28:51
◼
►
from what the app makers are making.
00:28:54
◼
►
So it's a way for Apple to eat even more
00:28:57
◼
►
into the business of app developers.
00:29:00
◼
►
And it's because they've got
00:29:01
◼
►
an increasingly captive audience, right?
00:29:05
◼
►
Because marketing your app on Facebook
00:29:07
◼
►
doesn't really work anymore
00:29:08
◼
►
in the era of app tracking transparency.
00:29:10
◼
►
You really have to go to the source, which is Apple.
00:29:12
◼
►
And while that is more private,
00:29:14
◼
►
it also is awfully good for Apple.
00:29:16
◼
►
- But anyway, getting back to the topic at hand,
00:29:20
◼
►
this is the Q3, for the Q3 2022 results.
00:29:25
◼
►
49% of the revenue was iPhone, 24% services,
00:29:30
◼
►
10% wearables, and a Mac and iPad, but 9% each.
00:29:34
◼
►
So this was again, another record set in quarter for Apple,
00:29:38
◼
►
but it doesn't really feel like one to celebrate.
00:29:42
◼
►
- Right, it's a, I mean, the Wall Street response
00:29:46
◼
►
seemed to be relief because there's been so much difficulty
00:29:49
◼
►
in Wall Street, in the stock market,
00:29:53
◼
►
in the tech sector of the stock market especially,
00:29:56
◼
►
that Apple coming out with results that are fine
00:29:59
◼
►
was a relief 'cause they were afraid
00:30:01
◼
►
they were gonna be not fine.
00:30:02
◼
►
And the fact that the iPhone posted a 2% year over year gain
00:30:06
◼
►
that you could hear the size from Wall Street, right?
00:30:10
◼
►
'Cause it's the most important product
00:30:11
◼
►
for the most valuable company, and it didn't take a dive,
00:30:15
◼
►
and they were really relieved.
00:30:17
◼
►
And if you listen on the call, what Tim Cook said was,
00:30:22
◼
►
if you look at the iPhone and try to imagine
00:30:25
◼
►
what are the macroeconomic conditions,
00:30:27
◼
►
what are the headwinds, as they like to say,
00:30:28
◼
►
what are all the problems,
00:30:30
◼
►
do we see any evidence in the iPhone
00:30:33
◼
►
that there are lots of troubles globally, economically?
00:30:37
◼
►
And he said, there are none.
00:30:39
◼
►
If you just look at the, he says,
00:30:41
◼
►
I'm not saying there aren't.
00:30:42
◼
►
I'm saying that if you were to look at the numbers,
00:30:45
◼
►
you can't see it.
00:30:46
◼
►
It was just a good iPhone quarter.
00:30:50
◼
►
Other categories you could see it, but not,
00:30:52
◼
►
wearables, he said specifically,
00:30:54
◼
►
like if they feel like the macroeconomic conditions
00:30:56
◼
►
really are what whacked wearables.
00:30:58
◼
►
And wearables had its worst quarter in ages.
00:31:01
◼
►
It's been up every quarter year over year for years now,
00:31:05
◼
►
and it was down.
00:31:06
◼
►
But the iPhone did okay.
00:31:08
◼
►
And honestly, so much of how Wall Street views Apple
00:31:12
◼
►
and Apple's business, rightfully so,
00:31:13
◼
►
'cause it's half or more of Apple's business, it's iPhone.
00:31:17
◼
►
And so if iPhone did okay, they're like,
00:31:19
◼
►
"Okay, all right, it's gonna be okay.
00:31:21
◼
►
iPhone's okay, everybody, it's okay."
00:31:23
◼
►
- So Apple had previously forecast
00:31:25
◼
►
that they would lose somewhere
00:31:27
◼
►
between four to $8 billion in sales this quarter
00:31:30
◼
►
for just stuff they couldn't fulfill.
00:31:32
◼
►
But it ended up being just shy of that 4 billion.
00:31:35
◼
►
So it was even better.
00:31:37
◼
►
as is typical for them, like they make a regent
00:31:41
◼
►
and then they always perform slightly better.
00:31:43
◼
►
- I mean, they do some sandbagging.
00:31:45
◼
►
I think that this was legit though.
00:31:46
◼
►
I think that they were surprised when they made their,
00:31:50
◼
►
it's not really a forecast,
00:31:51
◼
►
but when they made their statements three months ago,
00:31:53
◼
►
they were in the midst of,
00:31:55
◼
►
or just coming out of shutdowns in Shanghai.
00:31:58
◼
►
There were COVID shutdowns in Shanghai
00:31:59
◼
►
at the factories there.
00:32:00
◼
►
And they were really concerned about supply.
00:32:04
◼
►
Because again, this is a number,
00:32:05
◼
►
four to eight billion is what they said.
00:32:06
◼
►
It was literally, there's $4 to $8 billion
00:32:09
◼
►
we're gonna leave on the table
00:32:10
◼
►
where people wanna buy our products
00:32:11
◼
►
and we can't sell them products
00:32:13
◼
►
'cause we don't have them in our hands to give them.
00:32:15
◼
►
And what ends up happening,
00:32:19
◼
►
I thought one of the other telling moments
00:32:21
◼
►
in the analyst call afterward is,
00:32:25
◼
►
so the Mac gets assembled there.
00:32:27
◼
►
The bulk of Macs are assembled in Shanghai.
00:32:29
◼
►
So unlike other Apple products that are put together
00:32:33
◼
►
in other places in China, we think of China as a monolith,
00:32:36
◼
►
but it's not, there are factories
00:32:37
◼
►
in all sorts of different places.
00:32:38
◼
►
Most Mac assemblies in Shanghai,
00:32:41
◼
►
and the Shanghai shutdowns happen is really bad for Apple,
00:32:44
◼
►
really kind of stopped Mac production.
00:32:46
◼
►
We all know, you order a Mac the last few months,
00:32:49
◼
►
it's been like, good luck,
00:32:50
◼
►
you'll get it in two months or three months.
00:32:53
◼
►
It sounds like what happened is that those things
00:32:56
◼
►
have started to resolve and they resolve faster
00:32:58
◼
►
maybe than Apple had anticipated
00:33:00
◼
►
when they made the $4 to $8 billion prediction.
00:33:02
◼
►
And this all comes out of a statement that Tim Cook made
00:33:04
◼
►
when somebody said, "Geez, the Mac had a really good run
00:33:08
◼
►
there, but now it's down 10% this quarter.
00:33:11
◼
►
What's going on?"
00:33:13
◼
►
And Tim Cook's response was something like,
00:33:15
◼
►
"Ha ha, oh, you should have seen it before.
00:33:18
◼
►
We were really happy to get it to 10%."
00:33:20
◼
►
So apparently the Mac was really down.
00:33:23
◼
►
And then at the very end, they kind of pulled it out.
00:33:25
◼
►
And I think that's probably where the,
00:33:27
◼
►
we ended up under 4 billion in terms of stuff
00:33:30
◼
►
we left on the table.
00:33:31
◼
►
I think that maybe is where it came from,
00:33:33
◼
►
is that the Mac bounced back a little bit faster
00:33:36
◼
►
than they had feared.
00:33:37
◼
►
And so what a way to spin a 10% down year over year number
00:33:40
◼
►
for the Mac is to basically say,
00:33:42
◼
►
"Look, this is not about Mac demand.
00:33:44
◼
►
This is entirely about Mac supply."
00:33:46
◼
►
And somebody said, "Well, what's the demand like?"
00:33:48
◼
►
And they're like, "Huh, can't measure demand
00:33:51
◼
►
if you don't have any supply.
00:33:52
◼
►
Like we literally couldn't even tell you.
00:33:55
◼
►
We're just guessing."
00:33:56
◼
►
So I wouldn't say it was a bad quarter from the Mac
00:33:59
◼
►
in that way, because I think that people wanted to buy Macs
00:34:03
◼
►
and they just couldn't.
00:34:04
◼
►
And then the only question is, did they lose those people?
00:34:06
◼
►
Did those people not buy a Mac
00:34:08
◼
►
and buy something else instead?
00:34:09
◼
►
Or are they just in the queue waiting for their Mac to ship?
00:34:13
◼
►
- CFO Luca Maestri created a great band name,
00:34:16
◼
►
Cocktail of Headwinds.
00:34:18
◼
►
That was how Luca-- - Yep, the Cocktail
00:34:20
◼
►
of Headwinds.
00:34:21
◼
►
- Described the various issues.
00:34:25
◼
►
- It's quite a mixed metaphor, Cocktail of Headwinds.
00:34:28
◼
►
How do you put wind in a cocktail?
00:34:29
◼
►
And the ingredients of the cocktail,
00:34:31
◼
►
It's year over year sales in Russia,
00:34:34
◼
►
because there's no sales in Russia anymore.
00:34:36
◼
►
They kept referring to it as like the situation in Russia
00:34:38
◼
►
or whatever, but it's like they shut down in Russia.
00:34:41
◼
►
So that's one.
00:34:43
◼
►
It is supply chain, but that's broken in two.
00:34:45
◼
►
It's the factory assembly supply chain stuff
00:34:48
◼
►
that they dealt with that we just talked about.
00:34:50
◼
►
And also the ongoing Silicon shortage as they call it,
00:34:54
◼
►
or as we like to call it here, the legacy nodes.
00:34:57
◼
►
- Legacy nodes.
00:34:58
◼
►
- Those legacy nodes,
00:34:59
◼
►
They're just out there being legacy nodes
00:35:01
◼
►
and it's sometimes hard to get that Bluetooth chip
00:35:04
◼
►
that you want or that wifi chip that you want
00:35:08
◼
►
or whatever it is that's just a not interesting piece
00:35:11
◼
►
of silicon, but they're hard to come by right now.
00:35:14
◼
►
So those are part of the headwinds.
00:35:16
◼
►
Foreign exchange is a headwind.
00:35:18
◼
►
The dollar is very strong right now.
00:35:20
◼
►
You may have noticed this, Myke.
00:35:22
◼
►
Dollar's very strong right now.
00:35:24
◼
►
- Yeah, I got a pay bump.
00:35:26
◼
►
- Yeah, it's nice, nice for you.
00:35:28
◼
►
- It's good for me.
00:35:29
◼
►
It's bad for Apple in the sense that it makes
00:35:31
◼
►
Apple's products either more expensive elsewhere
00:35:34
◼
►
or less profitable.
00:35:36
◼
►
- I wouldn't say it's bad.
00:35:37
◼
►
Like what I will say is yes,
00:35:39
◼
►
I'm sure that's a thing for them.
00:35:41
◼
►
I would argue that Apple way over adjusts sometimes.
00:35:44
◼
►
Like some of the product prices when you do the dollar
00:35:47
◼
►
to like the pound to dollar conversion,
00:35:49
◼
►
they are making good money.
00:35:52
◼
►
But the point is that when the dollar gets stronger,
00:35:54
◼
►
that good money becomes less good.
00:35:57
◼
►
- Yeah, but they just adjust it.
00:35:59
◼
►
- They don't worry about that. - So this is what I'm saying.
00:36:01
◼
►
This is exactly what I'm saying.
00:36:03
◼
►
Either they adjust their prices in market,
00:36:04
◼
►
which makes the product less attractive,
00:36:08
◼
►
or they're eating profit, and those are their choices.
00:36:11
◼
►
So what they do is they do stuff like they hedge,
00:36:14
◼
►
they buy a bunch of foreign currency
00:36:15
◼
►
so that if the bad stuff goes up,
00:36:18
◼
►
their other stuff goes down,
00:36:19
◼
►
or reverse, if the bad stuff goes down,
00:36:21
◼
►
their stuff goes up, and they kind of level it out.
00:36:23
◼
►
They're making a bet on foreign currency
00:36:26
◼
►
basically to just counteract the effects.
00:36:28
◼
►
But foreign exchange is a headwind, it's in the cocktail,
00:36:30
◼
►
and they said it could be as much as like $5 billion
00:36:33
◼
►
difference to their bottom line next quarter,
00:36:36
◼
►
because the dollar is so strong right now.
00:36:38
◼
►
And if you're an American company trying to sell products
00:36:40
◼
►
overseas, a strong dollar is not the best for you.
00:36:43
◼
►
So yes, they're doing okay, but it is a headwind, right?
00:36:47
◼
►
Because it makes everything a little more difficult
00:36:49
◼
►
'cause your product is either more expensive
00:36:51
◼
►
or less profitable.
00:36:53
◼
►
And those aren't good, those aren't what companies want.
00:36:56
◼
►
- And of course, you know, talking about the demand side,
00:37:00
◼
►
they are not aware of the fact right now
00:37:03
◼
►
as if inflation or what do we call it, economic downturn,
00:37:08
◼
►
is potentially affecting the demand
00:37:10
◼
►
of some of these products, right?
00:37:11
◼
►
'Cause they can't supply them anyway,
00:37:13
◼
►
so they don't even know.
00:37:14
◼
►
- They don't know, right?
00:37:15
◼
►
If you saw flagging interest in a MacBook Air
00:37:17
◼
►
or something like that,
00:37:18
◼
►
you would have to have MacBook Airs to sell.
00:37:21
◼
►
Otherwise you can't measure that.
00:37:23
◼
►
and they're only coming back now to being able to do that.
00:37:27
◼
►
- Yeah, like I just, I looked at it,
00:37:28
◼
►
I priced out like a MacBook Air today,
00:37:30
◼
►
or kind of middling spec, end of August,
00:37:33
◼
►
what you, before you'd get it.
00:37:36
◼
►
- Apple is expecting less supply constraints
00:37:38
◼
►
in the coming quarter,
00:37:40
◼
►
which would be Q4, and that won't include iPhones, will it?
00:37:47
◼
►
- It will probably only include a very small amount,
00:37:52
◼
►
it depends on when they ship, but a very small amount.
00:37:53
◼
►
It could include the first orders, right?
00:37:58
◼
►
Like the pre-orders?
00:37:59
◼
►
Depends on when they ship, when that quarter closes,
00:38:02
◼
►
'cause that quarter will close in late September.
00:38:04
◼
►
So probably not a lot, a little bit, but not a lot.
00:38:07
◼
►
And then the rest of them go into the holiday quarter,
00:38:09
◼
►
which is their age quarter.
00:38:10
◼
►
Into the holidays, yeah.
00:38:12
◼
►
Okay, so it could, but what it will include
00:38:15
◼
►
is MacBook Airs, right?
00:38:17
◼
►
'Cause they're not in this.
00:38:18
◼
►
They missed the Q3 quarter we're talking about.
00:38:22
◼
►
- Okay, Tim Cook told Emily Chang of Bloomberg
00:38:26
◼
►
that Apple is going to be deliberate with spending
00:38:30
◼
►
with the threat of recession looming,
00:38:32
◼
►
but Apple believes in investing through downturns,
00:38:36
◼
►
which I guess you can do if you have all the money.
00:38:40
◼
►
- Well, that is a classic Apple line.
00:38:42
◼
►
And it's also, I mean, this is the good investment advice,
00:38:44
◼
►
which is when the stocks go down,
00:38:47
◼
►
if you've got the ability, buy more stock
00:38:49
◼
►
because you're supposed to buy it when it's low, right?
00:38:52
◼
►
And how do you beat your competitors?
00:38:54
◼
►
As well, if they're all tightening their belts
00:38:56
◼
►
during the downturn,
00:38:57
◼
►
and you've got a lot of cash laying around,
00:39:00
◼
►
you can hire those people
00:39:02
◼
►
and get ahead on the next product cycle,
00:39:05
◼
►
and all your competitors have slowed down
00:39:06
◼
►
and you are not.
00:39:09
◼
►
I feel like this is all an act.
00:39:11
◼
►
I feel like this is Tim Cook wanting to seem
00:39:15
◼
►
like he's responsible for Wall Street.
00:39:18
◼
►
But what they're not saying is that
00:39:20
◼
►
they're laying people off.
00:39:21
◼
►
they're saying that they'll be deliberate with hiring and maybe they won't expand as
00:39:25
◼
►
fast. I saw a story that said like Apple...
00:39:28
◼
►
I didn't see layoffs but I've seen hiring freezes.
00:39:31
◼
►
Yeah, Apple has been increasing headcount by a lot and maybe they won't do that. I still
00:39:36
◼
►
don't entirely buy that because one, I think it's kind of dumb because Apple has lots of
00:39:41
◼
►
money and it's not like Apple... I mean Apple should be investing through the downturn.
00:39:47
◼
►
This is when you go for the jugular of your competitors. It's like, we got all the money,
00:39:51
◼
►
we can just sail right through this.
00:39:53
◼
►
So I think it's walking a line of like wanting
00:39:55
◼
►
to be responsible and seem responsible,
00:39:58
◼
►
but also not missing an opportunity.
00:40:00
◼
►
So I'm sure in key areas,
00:40:01
◼
►
they are gonna keep hiring as they need to,
00:40:04
◼
►
but maybe in less key areas, they'll slow it down
00:40:07
◼
►
and that's fine.
00:40:09
◼
►
- There are a lot of just in tech right now,
00:40:12
◼
►
there are a lot of company acquisitions happening.
00:40:14
◼
►
So there could be some of that kind of stuff.
00:40:16
◼
►
Apple makes lots of small acquisitions
00:40:18
◼
►
and this is a time to do that. - From time to time,
00:40:20
◼
►
as they say.
00:40:21
◼
►
- Actually, that was another little tea leaf reading thing
00:40:23
◼
►
that happened is they get asked the question
00:40:26
◼
►
about acquisitions all the time.
00:40:28
◼
►
And this time they got asked that question
00:40:30
◼
►
and his response was a little different.
00:40:32
◼
►
He was sort of like, well, you know,
00:40:35
◼
►
we look at stuff big and little, and we continue to do that.
00:40:39
◼
►
It was this weirdly like way more noncommittal
00:40:43
◼
►
than we usually get.
00:40:45
◼
►
And maybe, you know, Tim was just in a mood, maybe.
00:40:49
◼
►
- He was mad to be there.
00:40:50
◼
►
But I definitely saw, or maybe he was just feeling fine,
00:40:54
◼
►
feeling calm.
00:40:55
◼
►
And so he was like, yeah, whatever.
00:40:57
◼
►
But I definitely saw several people on Twitter who were like,
00:40:59
◼
►
wait a second, did other people hear what I heard?
00:41:02
◼
►
And it's like, I heard the tone difference.
00:41:04
◼
►
It might not mean anything,
00:41:05
◼
►
but if you're reading the tea leaves,
00:41:06
◼
►
you gotta at least consider the possibility
00:41:08
◼
►
that maybe what he was saying is,
00:41:11
◼
►
well, maybe what he's saying is,
00:41:12
◼
►
yeah, we are or have seriously considered larger
00:41:15
◼
►
and larger acquisitions.
00:41:17
◼
►
'Cause that's the other thing they could do, right?
00:41:18
◼
►
is if there's a competitor who Apple can swallow
00:41:23
◼
►
that normally would be too expensive
00:41:25
◼
►
but their stock took a hit, like, I mean, Netflix,
00:41:29
◼
►
they could do it.
00:41:31
◼
►
- Please, can we not go back?
00:41:33
◼
►
- I know, I don't wanna go back there,
00:41:35
◼
►
but that's the thing.
00:41:37
◼
►
And I think maybe this is the answer
00:41:38
◼
►
is maybe Apple doesn't wanna go back there either,
00:41:40
◼
►
but you're Apple, you got all the money,
00:41:43
◼
►
Netflix takes a huge stock hit.
00:41:45
◼
►
You gotta look, right?
00:41:47
◼
►
You gotta kick the tires and say,
00:41:48
◼
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"Well, should we do this?"
00:41:49
◼
►
And maybe that's what Tim Cook's tone was.
00:41:51
◼
►
It's not like we don't consider it,
00:41:53
◼
►
but we generally don't do it.
00:41:55
◼
►
And they don't, Beets was their big acquisition, right?
00:41:58
◼
►
So I don't know, I'm just saying,
00:42:01
◼
►
I thought that was interesting that they talked about it.
00:42:03
◼
►
And when you talk about investing through a downturn,
00:42:05
◼
►
that is one thing you could potentially see Apple doing
00:42:08
◼
►
is if there is a competitor or a good fit
00:42:12
◼
►
that looked too expensive for Apple,
00:42:15
◼
►
and then they get hammered in their stock,
00:42:18
◼
►
That's a good time for Apple to come in
00:42:20
◼
►
and swallow them whole,
00:42:22
◼
►
which they could do if they wanted to.
00:42:24
◼
►
- Outside of Netflix,
00:42:25
◼
►
is there anyone that you would consider for them?
00:42:29
◼
►
- I don't know.
00:42:30
◼
►
I mean, I feel like their entertainment stuff,
00:42:35
◼
►
it's possible that they could buy somebody
00:42:40
◼
►
who's got a big catalog of content
00:42:42
◼
►
and intellectual property.
00:42:44
◼
►
They would have to divest of a lot of legacy stuff
00:42:46
◼
►
like TV stations and stuff.
00:42:48
◼
►
So that's out there.
00:42:50
◼
►
Look at areas where they're interested,
00:42:51
◼
►
where they think that they could add something.
00:42:53
◼
►
I mean, Netflix is a place where they are playing,
00:42:55
◼
►
so it's possible.
00:42:57
◼
►
If you look at, somebody in the Discord mentioned Peloton,
00:43:01
◼
►
like maybe, right?
00:43:06
◼
►
If they're really kind of feeling crappy
00:43:09
◼
►
and Apple thinks that there's value to sort of suck them in
00:43:11
◼
►
and turn that into more Apple fitness,
00:43:14
◼
►
Peloton already announced that they're gonna
00:43:15
◼
►
outsource the making of the bikes too so you could literally turn it into a
00:43:18
◼
►
service business and and work with partners and walk away. I'm not sure that
00:43:23
◼
►
I'm not sure Peloton I don't think Apple Peloton makes a good fit I think Amazon
00:43:27
◼
►
Peloton is a better fit or Google. Yeah oh for sure I I mean let me just put it
00:43:32
◼
►
this way I don't think anything's a good fit for Apple I really don't I don't
00:43:37
◼
►
think anything's a good fit for Apple because Apple is so specific somebody in
00:43:43
◼
►
I mean, Joe Steele mentioned Paramount.
00:43:46
◼
►
It's like, yes, I think that Paramount or NBC Universal
00:43:49
◼
►
or something like that, where it's like,
00:43:51
◼
►
somebody just wants to unload or sell
00:43:53
◼
►
and Apple will write a big check.
00:43:54
◼
►
Although I think Apple's right now content
00:43:56
◼
►
to write big checks for sports rights
00:43:58
◼
►
and other stuff like that.
00:43:58
◼
►
- And just content in general.
00:44:00
◼
►
I don't think they need to buy catalogs.
00:44:01
◼
►
I think they're happy just bidding a lot of money
00:44:03
◼
►
for movies and TV shows.
00:44:05
◼
►
- Right, the only thing would come
00:44:07
◼
►
if they wanted a franchise,
00:44:08
◼
►
if they wanted to own some franchises and stuff like that.
00:44:10
◼
►
But like, they don't want to own CBS, right?
00:44:12
◼
►
They don't want that.
00:44:13
◼
►
They don't want a TV network.
00:44:15
◼
►
So I don't know about that.
00:44:17
◼
►
And yeah, Peloton or Netflix,
00:44:20
◼
►
like would they be good fits at Apple?
00:44:21
◼
►
I don't think they would be.
00:44:23
◼
►
I'll throw in another one that somebody mentioned
00:44:25
◼
►
in the Discord that I think is actually
00:44:27
◼
►
might be a better fit for Apple.
00:44:30
◼
►
I don't think it'll ever happen, but it's Tesla.
00:44:33
◼
►
Like if Apple really wants to be in cars, there's a--
00:44:35
◼
►
- I was gonna say a car company, right?
00:44:37
◼
►
Like-- - Yeah.
00:44:38
◼
►
- Yeah, or Rivian. - Yeah.
00:44:40
◼
►
- You know, especially if their stock is really down,
00:44:43
◼
►
Because the advantage is, well, Polestar is owned by a traditional car company, though.
00:44:47
◼
►
But Tesla and Rivian are kind of out there on their own.
00:44:50
◼
►
And again, if the purchase price was right, because that stock got hammered for some reason,
00:44:57
◼
►
and Apple wants to be in cars, well, guess what?
00:45:01
◼
►
Like, there are already two, at least, tech startup, maybe three if you throw in Lucid,
00:45:08
◼
►
Tech startup, Apple's former PR head,
00:45:12
◼
►
is the PR head at Lucid by the way.
00:45:14
◼
►
Natalie, wow, she changed her name back to her maiden name.
00:45:19
◼
►
Anyway, she's there, so she knows all about it.
00:45:22
◼
►
You could do something like that, right?
00:45:24
◼
►
Where Project Titan's like, "Oh, I don't know."
00:45:25
◼
►
It's like, well, there are other companies
00:45:26
◼
►
that are actually selling cars today
00:45:28
◼
►
that are kind of Apple-y, kind of,
00:45:30
◼
►
but doing their own thing that you could bring in
00:45:32
◼
►
if you really wanted to do that.
00:45:34
◼
►
But I think this is the fallacy of Apple acquisition talk,
00:45:36
◼
►
which is most of them are bad ideas.
00:45:38
◼
►
I'm sure they all get thrown around in Tim Cook's office
00:45:41
◼
►
and then they go, nah, and then they move on.
00:45:44
◼
►
And then what Apple really prefers to do
00:45:45
◼
►
is those strategic buyouts.
00:45:48
◼
►
But never say never, right?
00:45:49
◼
►
Like if there is, everything's got a price, right?
00:45:52
◼
►
I am sure, I'm sure there's a stock price
00:45:57
◼
►
at which Apple would say,
00:45:59
◼
►
maybe we should buy Netflix or Tesla or whoever, right?
00:46:03
◼
►
I'm sure there is,
00:46:04
◼
►
but it's probably lower than you think it is.
00:46:07
◼
►
Probably Apple is not willing to go as high as you think
00:46:09
◼
►
because the cost of integration is really high.
00:46:12
◼
►
Apple has a very specific culture.
00:46:14
◼
►
Apple has very rarely played that kind of game
00:46:18
◼
►
where they like to buy people in technology
00:46:22
◼
►
that are smart and integrate them into the Apple machine,
00:46:24
◼
►
not just take something off of a retail shelf
00:46:27
◼
►
and say, "Oh, it's Apple now."
00:46:28
◼
►
- I don't want to be that guy 'cause I'm reading a book,
00:46:30
◼
►
but I just wanted to bring this up
00:46:32
◼
►
because it came up in the book, the After Steve book,
00:46:34
◼
►
where they are talking about the Beats acquisition, right?
00:46:37
◼
►
And that one made a lot of sense
00:46:41
◼
►
because what they wanted was Beats Music
00:46:43
◼
►
because Apple was starting to fall behind
00:46:45
◼
►
and they apparently were trying to build
00:46:47
◼
►
their own streaming music service
00:46:49
◼
►
and it wasn't really getting far enough
00:46:53
◼
►
and Tim Cook liked Beats Music and they just wanted that
00:46:56
◼
►
but Jimmy Iovine wanted Apple to take all of it
00:47:00
◼
►
they could get a lot of money out of that. And so they just packaged the whole thing
00:47:04
◼
►
up and bought it. And then they got Beats and it's just like they've been able to, I
00:47:08
◼
►
think they've actually been able to benefit from that quite a lot. And then they also
00:47:12
◼
►
got Beats Music, which they turned into Apple Music. And so for me, I could only ever really
00:47:18
◼
►
imagine them making a very large, splashy acquisition with that idea in mind. That's
00:47:23
◼
►
why I don't think Netflix, because I don't think Apple owning Netflix would really help
00:47:30
◼
►
them in the ways that they want Apple TV to be.
00:47:33
◼
►
Right. And then they would have to be, you know, then they would be running the Netflix
00:47:38
◼
►
Which I don't think they want to do.
00:47:39
◼
►
They, I don't think is necessary. I agree. In fact, what you just described sounds much
00:47:43
◼
►
more like an electric car company, right?
00:47:45
◼
►
Yes. And that's why I was bringing it up.
00:47:46
◼
►
Which I think they've been trying and trying and trying to do when they haven't succeeded.
00:47:49
◼
►
By the way, it's a follow-up.
00:47:50
◼
►
And they need to follow up. And they need technology. And they don't have it right now.
00:47:53
◼
►
And you could just pick it up and suddenly you've got factories and cars.
00:47:58
◼
►
and a technology stack that you can keep or throw away
00:48:00
◼
►
as you see fit.
00:48:02
◼
►
So Polestar, by the way, was owned entirely by Volvo
00:48:06
◼
►
and they took it public.
00:48:08
◼
►
So I'm sure Volvo still has very close ties
00:48:10
◼
►
and owns a lot of it, but okay,
00:48:11
◼
►
we'll throw that on the list, that's fine.
00:48:13
◼
►
But like that, something like that is, I don't know.
00:48:15
◼
►
I mean, we're gonna, our next segment is all about CarPlay
00:48:20
◼
►
and Apple's ambitions in the auto,
00:48:25
◼
►
But I will throw that out there just as an aside
00:48:29
◼
►
that if there's any place I could see Apple making
00:48:31
◼
►
a big high profile acquisition, it is cars,
00:48:36
◼
►
just because I think there are some car companies out there
00:48:39
◼
►
that are kind of independent
00:48:41
◼
►
and sort of what Apple's trying to do
00:48:45
◼
►
and that Apple might use as a shortcut
00:48:47
◼
►
to get where it wants to go.
00:48:48
◼
►
I'm not saying it's likely,
00:48:49
◼
►
I'm just saying that maybe that's a better fit
00:48:51
◼
►
than something like Netflix,
00:48:52
◼
►
which again, I feel like if Netflix is down in the dumps,
00:48:55
◼
►
Apple looks at it just to say, "Well, should we?" but I don't see why they would.
00:49:00
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All right, it is time for an upgrade, some fun vertical about CarPlay. And joining me
00:51:00
◼
►
now is Sam Abouel-Samid, who is the host of the Wheel Bearings podcast and somebody who
00:51:06
◼
►
knows a lot about the auto industry. Sam, welcome.
00:51:12
◼
►
Thank you, Jason. It's a pleasure to be here with you today.
00:51:14
◼
►
good you've been listening to my various podcasts and sending me emails and
00:51:18
◼
►
we've talked about this stuff and I wanted to just get you on upgrade to
00:51:20
◼
►
talk about all the carplay things that Apple dropped at WWDC which are almost
00:51:25
◼
►
like science fiction right it's like eventually at the end of next year you
00:51:30
◼
►
might start to see cars with whatever this thing is that they didn't really
00:51:34
◼
►
even give a name other than to say it's next-generation carplay it's kind of
00:51:38
◼
►
interesting I guess the timeframes when you're talking about the auto industry
00:51:41
◼
►
are a little bit like that right there they're more out there than maybe
00:51:44
◼
►
the tech industry is used to? Yeah, you know, a big, you know, one of the big issues with anything
00:51:50
◼
►
automotive is safety concerns. You know, compared to, you know, a consumer electronics device like
00:51:56
◼
►
a smartphone or a tablet, you have to factor in safety validation for a lot of things because
00:52:04
◼
►
when things go wrong, the consequences of mistakes can be life or death. You know, rarely if you're,
00:52:10
◼
►
if Instagram crashes on you, will it result in you dying?
00:52:14
◼
►
Or at least hopefully.
00:52:16
◼
►
But if things go wrong with software in a car,
00:52:19
◼
►
the consequences can be very severe.
00:52:21
◼
►
And so they do tend to spend more time on safety validation.
00:52:26
◼
►
And especially when you're looking at something
00:52:28
◼
►
like this new version of CarPlay,
00:52:30
◼
►
there's also regulatory concerns,
00:52:33
◼
►
particularly around the instrument cluster.
00:52:36
◼
►
- That's one of the things that struck me about it
00:52:37
◼
►
is that they are saying the new generation of CarPlay
00:52:41
◼
►
is going to show,
00:52:42
◼
►
it's gonna be able to basically control the car
00:52:44
◼
►
and also show status live from the car,
00:52:48
◼
►
which obviously modern CarPlay doesn't really do that.
00:52:52
◼
►
Modern CarPlay is just sort of a phone interface,
00:52:56
◼
►
not a car interface, if that makes sense.
00:52:59
◼
►
And this is something very different.
00:53:02
◼
►
We'll start with what was your first reaction
00:53:07
◼
►
when you saw Apple doing this, were you thinking,
00:53:09
◼
►
this is interesting?
00:53:10
◼
►
Were you skeptical of it?
00:53:12
◼
►
I mean, it's so far out there that we have lots of time
00:53:14
◼
►
to form opinions about what they dropped in June.
00:53:18
◼
►
- Yeah, both really interesting and some skepticism,
00:53:22
◼
►
particularly as I read what little information
00:53:25
◼
►
they actually provided and rewatch the video
00:53:28
◼
►
because they haven't actually told us a whole lot,
00:53:30
◼
►
but there are a couple of important details
00:53:32
◼
►
in what they did say.
00:53:34
◼
►
One is the focus that this is still running on your device.
00:53:39
◼
►
And this is where the skepticism comes from.
00:53:41
◼
►
The idea of redesigning the interface to enable it
00:53:46
◼
►
to work across different display form factors in the car
00:53:51
◼
►
is an important thing because what we're seeing now
00:53:53
◼
►
as we get into new vehicles is a lot more variation
00:53:58
◼
►
in the form factor.
00:53:59
◼
►
It used to be that you would have an instrument cluster
00:54:02
◼
►
directly in front of the driver
00:54:03
◼
►
And then somewhere in the middle of the car,
00:54:05
◼
►
you would have a display screen,
00:54:07
◼
►
modern vehicles, it's usually a touchscreen, but not always.
00:54:11
◼
►
And one rectangular, usually landscape display in the middle
00:54:16
◼
►
that was used for your infotainment system.
00:54:19
◼
►
And that's where CarPlay, and much of what I'm about to say
00:54:23
◼
►
also applies to Android Auto.
00:54:25
◼
►
They project information on there,
00:54:27
◼
►
as well as whatever is built into the car
00:54:29
◼
►
is also displayed on there.
00:54:32
◼
►
And the thing to remember about both CarPlay and Android Auto, as opposed to Android Automotive,
00:54:37
◼
►
which is something different, is that the way you can think about these two systems
00:54:44
◼
►
is they act sort of like device driver layers.
00:54:50
◼
►
Because different vehicles, you know, a lot of vehicles today have touch screens, but
00:54:54
◼
►
not all of them.
00:54:55
◼
►
Some of them have some sort of central control knob.
00:54:57
◼
►
Some of them have gesture controls.
00:54:58
◼
►
You know, you've got a variety of different interface systems.
00:55:04
◼
►
And what CarPlay and Android Auto do is they translate whatever the control signals are
00:55:11
◼
►
from the driver, whatever bit of hardware they have, whether it's a touch interface
00:55:16
◼
►
or a touchpad or a mouse-like device, into a common set of signals that the phone understands.
00:55:24
◼
►
And that interfaces with the apps on the phone.
00:55:26
◼
►
And then the phone projects back what is going to be displayed on the screen.
00:55:31
◼
►
So it acts as that intermediary.
00:55:35
◼
►
And my understanding of what little they've said so far, and I don't know if you've
00:55:41
◼
►
from any of the conversations you've had with Apple, they haven't responded to my
00:55:44
◼
►
inquiries, but if they've told you anything different, is that this next generation is
00:55:50
◼
►
still a smartphone projection system.
00:55:52
◼
►
the same type of approach, but tailored to be able to reformat itself to different display
00:56:01
◼
►
interfaces, so to project onto the instrument cluster, which is more and more often now
00:56:07
◼
►
a digital, an LCD display, and to portrait displays and landscape displays, and even
00:56:15
◼
►
one of the renders they showed that showed a pillar-to-pillar display across the entire
00:56:21
◼
►
dashboard, which is funny, listening to a lot of different podcasts, I heard a lot of
00:56:25
◼
►
people express skepticism about that one. You know, "Oh, that's, you know, something
00:56:29
◼
►
like that's never going to happen." Well, actually, that's actually already in production
00:56:32
◼
►
now in China on the new Lincoln Zephyr sedan, and it's coming to other vehicles as well.
00:56:38
◼
►
So that type of display does exist today and will be coming to more vehicles.
00:56:43
◼
►
Yeah. So one of the things about the—I had some theories, and I'm curious what your
00:56:49
◼
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your theories are, but I think we should at least touch
00:56:51
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on Android Automotive for people who don't know about it
00:56:54
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and the differences there.
00:56:56
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And the way I got to thinking about Android Automotive
00:56:59
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and whether Apple would ever consider doing something
00:57:02
◼
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like that is when I started to think about the fact
00:57:05
◼
►
that you can't ship a car without a brain
00:57:09
◼
►
and say, bring your own brain,
00:57:11
◼
►
bring your own smartphone, right?
00:57:13
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You can't do it. - Correct.
00:57:14
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- And not just the low level stuff,
00:57:16
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but like you can't say this car has no interface
00:57:19
◼
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unless you bring a smartphone, whether it's a rental car,
00:57:21
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what like you need to be able to turn it on and use it.
00:57:24
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And something needs to run that.
00:57:26
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And if you've got a big touch screen on,
00:57:29
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or even just a display that's not a touch interface,
00:57:32
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all that stuff has to be driven from somewhere.
00:57:34
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And what Google did is build Android Automotive,
00:57:38
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which is this lower level operating system
00:57:42
◼
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that is integrated into the car.
00:57:44
◼
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It doesn't come with your phone, right?
00:57:46
◼
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it's in the car and that that is a different approach.
00:57:50
◼
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That's the bottom up, I guess, a little bit more
00:57:52
◼
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than top-down approach that Apple has done
00:57:54
◼
►
and that Google has done with Android Auto.
00:57:57
◼
►
Have I summarized it right?
00:57:58
◼
►
Like what Android Automotive is?
00:58:00
◼
►
- Yeah, so today, most cars on the road built
00:58:04
◼
►
in the last decade use either BlackBerry's QNX
00:58:08
◼
►
or some flavor of Linux to power their infotainment systems
00:58:13
◼
►
and also instrument clusters.
00:58:15
◼
►
And these are generally set up
00:58:18
◼
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as real-time operating systems,
00:58:19
◼
►
especially for the cluster.
00:58:20
◼
►
For the cluster, it has to be a real-time operating system.
00:58:23
◼
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So that means that everything is tied to time slices.
00:58:28
◼
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You don't need that necessarily for the infotainment.
00:58:31
◼
►
If something happens a few milliseconds
00:58:34
◼
►
or 100 milliseconds or a second later,
00:58:36
◼
►
it doesn't matter so much for what's on that center screen.
00:58:39
◼
►
But the stuff that's in front of you,
00:58:42
◼
►
that stuff has to be real time.
00:58:44
◼
►
And this is where the regulatory part comes in
00:58:46
◼
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because there are certain requirements
00:58:48
◼
►
for things that have to be displayed.
00:58:52
◼
►
Like for example, alert warning,
00:58:55
◼
►
diagnostic warning lamps.
00:58:57
◼
►
When you start up your car today,
00:59:00
◼
►
you'll see a bunch of lamps that will flash on
00:59:02
◼
►
for a couple of seconds.
00:59:03
◼
►
That's part of the power on self test.
00:59:05
◼
►
And then assuming everything's okay,
00:59:07
◼
►
then most of those go out.
00:59:09
◼
►
And then when a problem is detected
00:59:12
◼
►
in some system in the vehicle,
00:59:13
◼
►
then it'll turn on one or more of those lamps
00:59:16
◼
►
and say, "Hey, here's what's going on."
00:59:19
◼
►
That same sort of stuff, that stuff is mandated by law.
00:59:24
◼
►
And so that has to be there.
00:59:25
◼
►
So there has to be, as you said,
00:59:27
◼
►
at least a minimal interface to begin with.
00:59:30
◼
►
You cannot assume that there is going to be
00:59:33
◼
►
any particular device that a driver's gonna bring along
00:59:35
◼
►
and plug into the car.
00:59:37
◼
►
- Right, and if I wanna turn on my windshield wipers,
00:59:40
◼
►
I can't be like, "Sorry, that's a feature
00:59:41
◼
►
"only available with a smartphone."
00:59:42
◼
►
You can't do it. - Exactly, yes.
00:59:44
◼
►
- So there has to be something there.
00:59:46
◼
►
And so what Google did is say, "All right,
00:59:48
◼
►
"can we get in there?"
00:59:51
◼
►
I wanna mention, by the way, you mentioned QNX
00:59:53
◼
►
and BlackBerry, and people may laugh a little bit
00:59:56
◼
►
at BlackBerry, it's the old times.
00:59:57
◼
►
QNX, yeah, it's absolutely used in this.
00:59:59
◼
►
And I'll just point out, Apple set up a whole,
01:00:03
◼
►
this is a story people may forget,
01:00:04
◼
►
Apple set up a whole building next door to QNX,
01:00:08
◼
►
and they didn't ever talk about why,
01:00:10
◼
►
and everybody assumes it's Project Titan, the car project.
01:00:12
◼
►
But Apple definitely at some point
01:00:16
◼
►
was very much interested in people
01:00:19
◼
►
who had experience building real-time operating systems.
01:00:22
◼
►
Whether they still have those people,
01:00:24
◼
►
who knows that Project Titan stuff
01:00:26
◼
►
has gone through 80 different iterations,
01:00:29
◼
►
but I'm just saying it's not impossible
01:00:32
◼
►
that Apple has had a program to build its own version
01:00:36
◼
►
of a real-time operating system for cars at some point,
01:00:40
◼
►
whether they have it, whether they did it,
01:00:41
◼
►
whether they gave up, I have no idea,
01:00:43
◼
►
but they set up an office in Canada right next to QNX,
01:00:47
◼
►
where they had the QNX people working.
01:00:49
◼
►
So it's definitely been on their radar at least,
01:00:52
◼
►
even if it's, I mean, who knows about today,
01:00:55
◼
►
but it's definitely been out there.
01:00:56
◼
►
- Yeah, absolutely.
01:00:58
◼
►
And QNX, long before it was owned by BlackBerry,
01:01:00
◼
►
or I think it was still called Research in Motion
01:01:03
◼
►
when they purchased it, when they acquired it.
01:01:05
◼
►
And QNX goes way back and it was designed
01:01:08
◼
►
from the ground up as a super reliable
01:01:11
◼
►
and secure operating, real-time operating system.
01:01:14
◼
►
So it's used in all kinds of applications
01:01:17
◼
►
that go well beyond consumer electronics devices or cars.
01:01:21
◼
►
It's used in things like clear reactors
01:01:24
◼
►
and all kinds of other stuff where reliability is paramount.
01:01:28
◼
►
- Where you can't have a bad acting app
01:01:29
◼
►
sort of prevent your speedometer from updating
01:01:32
◼
►
or your nuclear reactor from working properly.
01:01:33
◼
►
Yeah, it's important.
01:01:35
◼
►
It's kind of important.
01:01:36
◼
►
So what do you think?
01:01:38
◼
►
Knowing what we know about Apple,
01:01:40
◼
►
and we don't know everything, right?
01:01:42
◼
►
'Cause we don't know about Project Titan,
01:01:43
◼
►
and we don't know what their ultimate goal is,
01:01:45
◼
►
and we don't know what all they've tried
01:01:47
◼
►
and what they've ruled out.
01:01:49
◼
►
But I have to say, when I looked at this, I thought,
01:01:52
◼
►
are they gonna do their own version of Android Auto?
01:01:55
◼
►
And Android Auto is open source,
01:01:56
◼
►
and you can just take it and walk away with it
01:01:58
◼
►
and do stuff with it.
01:01:59
◼
►
and it's a very Google-y kind of thing,
01:02:01
◼
►
and I can't envision Apple ever doing that.
01:02:03
◼
►
I don't know, can you envision Apple going to automakers
01:02:08
◼
►
and saying, "Well, you know, we're not gonna let you
01:02:12
◼
►
"take the code, you know, take all,"
01:02:14
◼
►
or maybe some of the source code, but it's not open source,
01:02:16
◼
►
but like, but we're gonna go and say,
01:02:18
◼
►
"Why don't you use our thing instead,
01:02:20
◼
►
"'cause our thing is nicer, and it still does
01:02:22
◼
►
"all the things that Android Automotive does."
01:02:24
◼
►
Is that even plausible?
01:02:27
◼
►
I think it's plausible, but I think it's unlikely.
01:02:30
◼
►
And I'll tell you why.
01:02:31
◼
►
One of the things that they talked about
01:02:36
◼
►
during the presentation was they brought up this statistic
01:02:40
◼
►
that 79% of new car buyers insist on having
01:02:43
◼
►
Apple CarPlay in their vehicles.
01:02:45
◼
►
And that is true up to a point.
01:02:48
◼
►
What it's implying is that new car,
01:02:52
◼
►
yes, the reality is most of the people that buy new cars
01:02:57
◼
►
probably do want carplay.
01:02:58
◼
►
But you also have to consider the fact
01:03:01
◼
►
that the vast majority of people
01:03:03
◼
►
don't actually buy new cars.
01:03:04
◼
►
Most people never buy a new car in their lifespan.
01:03:06
◼
►
Most people only buy used cars.
01:03:08
◼
►
And used car sales outnumber new car sales every year
01:03:11
◼
►
by about three to four to one.
01:03:15
◼
►
And when you look at the, you know,
01:03:18
◼
►
downstream at the market, you know,
01:03:20
◼
►
once you get past the new car buyers,
01:03:22
◼
►
used car buyers are probably, you know,
01:03:26
◼
►
more likely to use an Android device, you know, because they're, you know, they're more concerned
01:03:30
◼
►
about how much they're spending. And, you know, let's be honest, you know, I'm an Android user,
01:03:34
◼
►
but I know that, you know, cost is a factor and is one of the main factors in why a lot of people
01:03:40
◼
►
use Android. It's, you know, it's not necessarily my main factor, but for a lot of people it is.
01:03:46
◼
►
But, and they still want to be able to have this kind of capability. And for automakers,
01:03:52
◼
►
Yes, they want to be able to sell those new cars to people that want to use iPhones, but
01:03:59
◼
►
they also are concerned about the used car buyers because that impacts what we call the
01:04:05
◼
►
residual value of the car, the resale value of the car.
01:04:09
◼
►
Once the car gets sold, once the original owner trades it in or sells it, it's going
01:04:16
◼
►
to be bought by somebody else.
01:04:18
◼
►
person may very well want to use Android Auto. And so if they did a full-blown operating
01:04:28
◼
►
system like Android Automotive, if Apple did this, it would really need to support Android
01:04:35
◼
►
Auto as well. Because if it doesn't, then that's going to have an impact on residual
01:04:44
◼
►
values, which impacts the automakers in terms of how they can do their lease pricing, for
01:04:50
◼
►
example, because that's how they figure out your payments for a lease.
01:04:54
◼
►
Because they're knowing the residual value they get back when they put that in a fleet,
01:04:59
◼
►
sell it to CarMax or whatever they need to do after the lease is over.
01:05:02
◼
►
Right. And I have a hard time believing that Apple would want to support Android Auto on
01:05:08
◼
►
their fancy new operating system.
01:05:11
◼
►
To be fair, Android Automotive does support CarPlay.
01:05:18
◼
►
So I feel like that almost there's this universal player thing, which is attaching it to a brain,
01:05:24
◼
►
and that maybe even – that's a great open question.
01:05:28
◼
►
If Apple's going to do this and get carmakers to sign on, they've got to support Android
01:05:34
◼
►
I think they would.
01:05:35
◼
►
If that was the only issue, I think they'd be like, "It's fine.
01:05:37
◼
►
It's going to be…"
01:05:38
◼
►
One of those typical Apple things where it's going to be like, "Well, it's better with
01:05:41
◼
►
an iPhone, but sure, sure, you can use your Android phone, but it's better with an iPhone,
01:05:45
◼
►
of course, and you should have that. All right, so possible, but not necessarily super plausible.
01:05:51
◼
►
I had a thought, which is like another way where Apple could do this, which is theming,
01:05:58
◼
►
which is like, okay, Apple's showing us a bunch of stuff, and they said, "Oh, you've
01:06:04
◼
►
got all these different controls you can use." And I kept thinking, like, is it all carplay,
01:06:10
◼
►
Or is there a scenario here where Apple basically is going to have its onboard iPhone brain,
01:06:17
◼
►
and then also it works with car makers to have sort of compatible themes that will make
01:06:26
◼
►
it seem like a seamless whole even though it's actually kind of not?
01:06:31
◼
►
I was trying to think like, "How else could you do this?"
01:06:33
◼
►
And that was one of the thoughts I had.
01:06:34
◼
►
It's like, "Oh, I know that that looks--oh look, I change it here and it changes it there."
01:06:39
◼
►
"Yeah, but is that still CarPlay or is it using the different CarPlay theme that the
01:06:45
◼
►
car maker has installed on their real-time operating system?"
01:06:48
◼
►
Yeah, no, the theming is absolutely a possibility and actually that's more plausible, I think,
01:06:55
◼
►
than some of the other things. Because even today, a lot of automakers already provide
01:07:01
◼
►
the ability to select different themes for your instrument cluster. And when you go through
01:07:07
◼
►
the drive modes, for example, and you go through your eco mode or your normal or comfort mode
01:07:11
◼
►
or your sport mode, you'll see the instrument cluster completely change the way it looks,
01:07:16
◼
►
you know, with different color schemes and everything.
01:07:19
◼
►
So I can definitely see a world where, you know, this next generation of CarPlay projects
01:07:27
◼
►
different themes, you know, that would integrate with whatever OS the automaker is running.
01:07:33
◼
►
So all the stuff that's in the cluster is still coming directly from the car.
01:07:38
◼
►
It doesn't have to go back through the phone and then back into the car again, but it's
01:07:45
◼
►
using the phone to figure out what is, for lack of a better term, what is the style sheet
01:07:51
◼
►
we want to apply to this data?
01:07:53
◼
►
And so that, I think, is a real plausible scenario.
01:07:58
◼
►
Because obviously this is not the kind of thing where Apple is going to roll in and
01:08:04
◼
►
say, "Oh, we've hacked into your system and replaced it."
01:08:08
◼
►
These are all like, "We're working with the car makers.
01:08:11
◼
►
We're going to have partners here."
01:08:13
◼
►
So I'm glad that you think that this is a possibility because that was when I was getting
01:08:17
◼
►
into my conspiracy theories about this.
01:08:19
◼
►
That was kind of where I ended up is, sure, it could be Project Titan and it could be
01:08:23
◼
►
a real-time operating system.
01:08:24
◼
►
I mean, it's possible, but you could do this by making partnerships with automakers and
01:08:31
◼
►
having something like theming or some, and maybe even a special kind of, depending on
01:08:37
◼
►
what operating system they're using, and that this is a year out, year plus out, some kind
01:08:43
◼
►
of a data channel or a back channel or something where there's special stuff that the iPhone
01:08:48
◼
►
can pass on to whatever operating system it's running.
01:08:51
◼
►
there's some sort of a, I don't know a lot about those RTOSs, but like a
01:08:54
◼
►
plugin architecture or a version that has the ability to communicate with the
01:08:59
◼
►
iPhone at a deeper level and give it more detail and have the iPhone
01:09:04
◼
►
send things to it, including themes and all of that, where it's more like where
01:09:09
◼
►
CarPlay 2.0 or whatever this is, CarPlay Advanced, is more tightly
01:09:16
◼
►
integrated with the car's existing real-time operating system if it's a
01:09:20
◼
►
partner that has worked with Apple on that. And the advantage of that for the
01:09:25
◼
►
car maker is they look good working with Apple without having to give up that
01:09:31
◼
►
part of their car to Apple because it opens up that can of worms of like well
01:09:36
◼
►
then what does it look like when the Apple product isn't there? Is it super
01:09:39
◼
►
generic? What about Android? Is that the most plausible scenario of what Apple is
01:09:45
◼
►
not describing when they show this and don't tell us what's happening? Is that
01:09:48
◼
►
the most plausible scenario? I think so and and you know to give you an example of how
01:09:53
◼
►
that might work, last fall GM announced something that they call Altify, which is their new
01:10:00
◼
►
application platform for vehicles and it's rolling out next year starting with the new
01:10:03
◼
►
Chevy Blazer EV. And essentially what this is, you know, if you know how Android is structured,
01:10:10
◼
►
it's running Linux underneath and there's this layer, this application, this API layer
01:10:17
◼
►
But, and I think iOS is fairly similar.
01:10:22
◼
►
You've got the kernel underneath, and then there's this layer of APIs that applications
01:10:27
◼
►
can get data from and then send commands to.
01:10:32
◼
►
And this is what GM is doing as they move to a more centralized computer architecture.
01:10:37
◼
►
Today, vehicles, most vehicles have anywhere from 50 to 100 or more individual computers
01:10:44
◼
►
scattered around the vehicles for all the different functions, because it's been kind
01:10:47
◼
►
of put together piecemeal over the last 30 or 40 years.
01:10:51
◼
►
And so they're transitioning to consolidating that into a few large compute clusters.
01:10:56
◼
►
And running on this for Altify, it's going to be running on Red Hat Linux underneath
01:11:02
◼
►
with this Altify layer that all the applications, all the stuff that used to run on all these
01:11:07
◼
►
discrete ECUs is now going to be running on one computer and instead of those applications
01:11:15
◼
►
directly accessing the sensor data or the actuators, it'll do it by an API call to
01:11:21
◼
►
Altify, which will give the data back and then it'll send a command back for what
01:11:26
◼
►
And this is, I think this is kind of the way that you might see this next generation CarPlay
01:11:32
◼
►
implemented where it has direct access through APIs to vehicle data. It can send through
01:11:41
◼
►
style sheets or themes. And this could also be how you might do things like,
01:11:47
◼
►
one of the things they talked about was operating your climate control using Siri or doing other
01:11:56
◼
►
functions, other vehicle functions through Siri, you would use your wake word and then
01:12:03
◼
►
it would send that request into the Altify layer and execute it that way.
01:12:08
◼
►
Right. It's something like sending your thermostat on the touchscreen, another thing
01:12:13
◼
►
where it could be an overlay that is actually from the car or it could be that if it's
01:12:20
◼
►
something that doesn't really require the real-time component, that it's just a…
01:12:25
◼
►
In the end, it's talking to the car operating system and saying, "What's the current thermostat?"
01:12:30
◼
►
and now, like, "Here's a new setting for you."
01:12:33
◼
►
Which sounds, again, why you need partners, right?
01:12:35
◼
►
Because unless there's a big standard, which there could be, but it sounds to me more like
01:12:40
◼
►
the kind of thing where they shake hands and say, "Okay, we're going to follow your spec,"
01:12:44
◼
►
or "You're going to follow our spec," or "We're going to find a place to do that in common."
01:12:48
◼
►
That Ultify thing is really interesting because that's the idea of GM saying, "All right,
01:12:54
◼
►
We need to have a tech strategy that doesn't integrate a bunch of OEM parts. Like for the
01:12:59
◼
►
21st century, what is our car base? So many of the reasons you know better than everyone
01:13:05
◼
►
as somebody who is focused on the auto industry, the worst user experiences about cars, at
01:13:12
◼
►
least in my – tell me if I'm right or wrong – I find the worst user experience
01:13:16
◼
►
about cars is all because things aren't integrated properly. And you end up with the
01:13:20
◼
►
proverbial dashboard with three on/off buttons on it?
01:13:24
◼
►
Oh, it's only going to get better, Jason. Right now, there are cars you can get that
01:13:30
◼
►
you can simultaneously run three different digital voice assistants.
01:13:34
◼
►
Oh, yeah, yeah. Oh, right. That's right.
01:13:36
◼
►
You know, driving a Ford vehicle right now, you can go out and you can use the built-in
01:13:44
◼
►
voice recognition for a whole bunch of functions.
01:13:47
◼
►
They also now have built in Alexa voice services.
01:13:52
◼
►
So you can say, "Madame A, please raise the temperature,"
01:13:57
◼
►
or "Madame A, please play your favorite band
01:14:01
◼
►
from Amazon Music," or whatever.
01:14:04
◼
►
Or at the same time, I can also just say,
01:14:08
◼
►
"Hey G, do many of the same things."
01:14:12
◼
►
and on GM cars that have Android automotive now,
01:14:16
◼
►
I can jump back and forth
01:14:18
◼
►
and use any of the three wake words to do this.
01:14:21
◼
►
And then if you have an iPhone plugged in instead
01:14:26
◼
►
into an Android automotive vehicle,
01:14:27
◼
►
now you have a fourth with, hey, Schlomo.
01:14:31
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, I guess the opposite extreme
01:14:34
◼
►
would be something like Tesla,
01:14:36
◼
►
where they've just decided, which on the one hand,
01:14:39
◼
►
Tesla, what I appreciate about that
01:14:41
◼
►
is the whole widget kind of approach that Tesla has taken
01:14:44
◼
►
where it's like, no, no, no, we're doing this.
01:14:46
◼
►
It's gonna be unified.
01:14:46
◼
►
We're thinking about this from the top down
01:14:50
◼
►
and it's gonna be what it is.
01:14:51
◼
►
The downside of that is,
01:14:53
◼
►
yeah, there aren't three voice assistants on the Tesla.
01:14:56
◼
►
I don't think there are any, but they also refuse-
01:14:59
◼
►
- There is some voice rack, but it doesn't work very well.
01:15:01
◼
►
- Right, well, and they refuse to use Android Auto
01:15:06
◼
►
or CarPlay, which I also find infuriating
01:15:09
◼
►
because again, I think it's a user experience problem
01:15:13
◼
►
on the other side, which is like, look, it's my phone.
01:15:15
◼
►
Like having driven a Tesla for a couple of weeks last year,
01:15:19
◼
►
I have my podcasts in Overcast
01:15:21
◼
►
and I would like to play them with that interface.
01:15:24
◼
►
And Tesla's like, no, use Bluetooth.
01:15:28
◼
►
Or I have Apple music.
01:15:29
◼
►
It's like, well, we got a Spotify app here.
01:15:31
◼
►
You could switch to Spotify for your car.
01:15:33
◼
►
No, I'm not gonna do that.
01:15:35
◼
►
So that's a frustration,
01:15:36
◼
►
But at least they have that kind of high level of,
01:15:39
◼
►
we're taking care of everything.
01:15:41
◼
►
Whereas a lot of the cars, it feels very much like,
01:15:43
◼
►
for obvious reasons, it's been built up over years
01:15:46
◼
►
and years and years.
01:15:47
◼
►
And the whole idea of like, I take this part from over here
01:15:50
◼
►
and I take this part from over there, and it's like,
01:15:51
◼
►
oh, now we've got a computer in this part.
01:15:53
◼
►
Well, we've got one in this part too,
01:15:55
◼
►
but they don't really talk to each other.
01:15:57
◼
►
And that gets back to the thing that I get in my mom's car.
01:16:00
◼
►
And I try to turn off the radio
01:16:02
◼
►
when I turn off the air conditioning,
01:16:03
◼
►
because there's two identically sized power buttons
01:16:07
◼
►
right next to each other.
01:16:09
◼
►
But they run completely different systems.
01:16:11
◼
►
- That integration is something that's starting to happen.
01:16:14
◼
►
And approaches like Ultify
01:16:17
◼
►
and some other manufacturers are doing
01:16:19
◼
►
will help with that by bringing it all together
01:16:23
◼
►
on a common computing platform.
01:16:25
◼
►
And I think that's gonna be a key going forward
01:16:28
◼
►
as we move into this era of electric vehicles.
01:16:32
◼
►
in the past, product differentiation used to come through the way a car looked, the
01:16:37
◼
►
way a car handled and rode, the way the engine performed and sounded.
01:16:42
◼
►
And at least from a ride and handling and powertrain perspective, a lot of that falls
01:16:46
◼
►
away with electrification because all electric motors basically feel the same.
01:16:52
◼
►
And so now they want to find different ways to create some differentiation.
01:16:57
◼
►
And part of that is allowing the user to personalize their experience in the vehicle and by giving
01:17:04
◼
►
them options.
01:17:05
◼
►
You know, the reality is that, yeah, you may have three or four assistants available to
01:17:09
◼
►
you in the vehicle going forward, but you're probably going to pick one and go with that
01:17:15
◼
►
And that's fine.
01:17:16
◼
►
And it works just fine.
01:17:18
◼
►
Pick the one that you like and that works best for you.
01:17:21
◼
►
And I think that's actually a good solution.
01:17:24
◼
►
that extends to doing things like themes,
01:17:26
◼
►
different graphics schemes and so on.
01:17:30
◼
►
- Well, in the end, I mean, this is a tech analysis of it
01:17:35
◼
►
but I think it works when you talk about user experience
01:17:38
◼
►
in general, which is nobody cares.
01:17:42
◼
►
I know there are people listening to this podcast
01:17:43
◼
►
who do care, but for the most part,
01:17:47
◼
►
nobody cares about how that happened.
01:17:50
◼
►
They just care that it happened.
01:17:51
◼
►
And so like if you step into a car in 2024,
01:17:56
◼
►
and it's got CarPlay on the dash,
01:17:58
◼
►
and it's got the Apple design theme that you chose,
01:18:01
◼
►
and it lights up all the dashboard items,
01:18:04
◼
►
and you're like, "Ah, yes, CarPlay is everywhere."
01:18:07
◼
►
It doesn't really matter
01:18:08
◼
►
what the underlying operating system is,
01:18:11
◼
►
and whether it's that the map that's in that screen
01:18:14
◼
►
that I grabbed from the keynote of like Apple Maps
01:18:17
◼
►
is running right behind the steering wheel,
01:18:19
◼
►
but there's the fact that it's in Drive,
01:18:21
◼
►
and the miles per hour are on it.
01:18:23
◼
►
And like, okay, well, those are actually coming
01:18:26
◼
►
from the real-time operating system
01:18:28
◼
►
and the map is being sent by Apple
01:18:31
◼
►
and being composited by the operating system.
01:18:33
◼
►
And like, nobody cares.
01:18:34
◼
►
If it feels like when I step into my car,
01:18:38
◼
►
oh, it's my car, it's the way I want it
01:18:40
◼
►
and everything is being run based on my settings
01:18:43
◼
►
on my iPhone, like that's, or your Android phone.
01:18:47
◼
►
But like, that's, I think that's in the end what matters.
01:18:50
◼
►
And I think it's better not to feel like
01:18:54
◼
►
I'm running three different things
01:18:56
◼
►
in three different screens, right?
01:18:57
◼
►
Like that's awful.
01:18:58
◼
►
So if Apple's initiative here ends up
01:19:01
◼
►
having this kind of integrated feel, that's great.
01:19:04
◼
►
It's just like, we need to be realistic
01:19:07
◼
►
that there's not gonna be,
01:19:09
◼
►
if you don't have a phone and you step into a car,
01:19:12
◼
►
the valet is gonna park your car
01:19:14
◼
►
and it's just like a gray screen.
01:19:15
◼
►
Like you can't, it can't be that.
01:19:18
◼
►
So it has to be something else.
01:19:20
◼
►
- Yeah, absolutely right.
01:19:21
◼
►
- What, give me some odds of how you think
01:19:26
◼
►
this is gonna go.
01:19:27
◼
►
What's the, is it gonna, is this gonna be a thing
01:19:29
◼
►
that Apple makes a big fanfare about
01:19:31
◼
►
and then it kind of quietly doesn't happen?
01:19:33
◼
►
Or do you think that something more than like a handful
01:19:36
◼
►
of car models is gonna happen with Apple and car makers?
01:19:40
◼
►
- I think something's definitely gonna happen.
01:19:42
◼
►
You know, I've been working in the auto industry
01:19:44
◼
►
for over 30 years as an engineer and a writer
01:19:48
◼
►
and podcaster and an analyst.
01:19:51
◼
►
And this is the most interesting time of my career.
01:19:54
◼
►
It's funny, I was recently doing a project for Motor Trend
01:19:59
◼
►
on software-defined vehicles and talking to some people.
01:20:02
◼
►
And this idea, we've moved from,
01:20:05
◼
►
we've had software in cars since the 1970s.
01:20:07
◼
►
I was working on software in the early '90s
01:20:10
◼
►
for ABS and traction control.
01:20:14
◼
►
We were writing code in Intel assembler for an ADC 196 microcontroller.
01:20:21
◼
►
Boy was that fun.
01:20:22
◼
►
And we've gone from software enabled to software defined.
01:20:26
◼
►
This idea that I talked about with customizing the user experience and being able to do things,
01:20:33
◼
►
having a base set of hardware and adding software to create new experiences or new functionality,
01:20:40
◼
►
I think is really fascinating.
01:20:43
◼
►
it's gonna be an interesting time. And it's gonna be a challenging time for a lot of people
01:20:48
◼
►
too, especially as you've got companies that want to start charging you a monthly subscription
01:20:51
◼
►
for heated seats. We don't need to go down that path right now.
01:20:56
◼
►
Yeah, tech ruins everything, doesn't it? Well, thank you so much for being on Upgrade
01:21:02
◼
►
as a vertical guest in the automotive vertical, a true vertical, not just a sarcastic upgrade
01:21:08
◼
►
vertical but an actual vertical. I should say, so principal analyst for e-mobility research
01:21:13
◼
►
with Guidehouse Insights, the Wheel Bearings podcast, wheelbearings.media, if you want
01:21:18
◼
►
to check that out. Are those the best places for people to find you?
01:21:21
◼
►
Yeah, and you know, just Google my name, you know, I'm on Twitter. I don't do Facebook.
01:21:26
◼
►
I quit Facebook multiple years ago. But yeah, that's probably the best places to find me.
01:21:32
◼
►
All right. Thank you so much for being here.
01:21:34
◼
►
I'm happy to be here. Thanks, Jason.
01:21:37
◼
►
This episode is brought to you by Capital One. Have you ever hit a technical snafu while
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you're shopping online, if you're ever given a headache by having to fill out payment
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01:23:05
◼
►
It is time for #AskUpgrade.
01:23:07
◼
►
I have a bunch of questions from Upgradients.
01:23:14
◼
►
The first, John who asks, "With the added functionality for the lock screen in iOS 16,
01:23:21
◼
►
do you expect that you'll be changing your background photo more often?"
01:23:26
◼
►
I did change mine.
01:23:27
◼
►
I have used the same image for like two years and it didn't look as good as I wanted and
01:23:34
◼
►
And so I ended up changing to a really good photo I have of my wife, Adina, and I like
01:23:38
◼
►
it way more.
01:23:39
◼
►
It just fits way more with the overall aesthetics of what Apple's going for, I think.
01:23:44
◼
►
I think that that's really people and buildings, I think, ideally what you want to be doing
01:23:54
◼
►
and what I think Apple would like to promote you to do.
01:23:57
◼
►
I think I'm going to change the picture on my lock screen more often.
01:24:03
◼
►
I wish, and I know that this has changed in the betas,
01:24:06
◼
►
but I don't consider the wallpaper behind my home screen
01:24:10
◼
►
the same as my lock screen.
01:24:11
◼
►
I think they're very different
01:24:13
◼
►
and they have different purposes.
01:24:14
◼
►
And I want like things to appear on the lock screen,
01:24:16
◼
►
whereas I want the home screen to be pretty neutral.
01:24:19
◼
►
And one of the things that really bothers me
01:24:21
◼
►
about the beta implementation of this feature
01:24:23
◼
►
is that it constantly wants you to override your wallpaper
01:24:27
◼
►
when you change your lock screen.
01:24:29
◼
►
And I just wanna be able to say no thanks
01:24:31
◼
►
because I kinda like my wallpaper
01:24:34
◼
►
and I don't need it to be changed.
01:24:35
◼
►
- It's easier to do that now,
01:24:37
◼
►
but still it makes you do it and I wish that it did.
01:24:40
◼
►
- I hate it.
01:24:41
◼
►
- Yeah, I don't need to go through that
01:24:43
◼
►
every time I change anything.
01:24:45
◼
►
- I edit a widget and it says,
01:24:48
◼
►
"Great, would you like to change your wallpaper?"
01:24:50
◼
►
I was like, "No, I, no."
01:24:51
◼
►
- If I'm changing my wallpaper, fine, you can ask me,
01:24:54
◼
►
but if I'm editing a widget, leave me alone.
01:24:57
◼
►
I don't need to change my background anymore.
01:24:59
◼
►
- Make it stop.
01:25:01
◼
►
So that's where I draw it all in.
01:25:02
◼
►
But yes, I think on the having multiple lock screens
01:25:05
◼
►
with different images on them, I think is a lot of fun too.
01:25:08
◼
►
And so like Apple Watch Faces,
01:25:11
◼
►
you have the ability to switch between them
01:25:12
◼
►
and that fundamentally will mean
01:25:14
◼
►
that the background pictures change more.
01:25:16
◼
►
- And then Jay Young asks,
01:25:21
◼
►
what widgets or complications are you currently using
01:25:24
◼
►
on your iOS 16 lock screens?
01:25:27
◼
►
- Oh, I have a scriptable widget
01:25:32
◼
►
that shows my current temperature and conditions
01:25:34
◼
►
at my house.
01:25:35
◼
►
- I wanna talk, we're gonna talk about this
01:25:36
◼
►
in more detail at some point in the next few weeks.
01:25:38
◼
►
I wanna get into what you've been up to.
01:25:40
◼
►
- It's early, but yeah, I do have that, which is great.
01:25:43
◼
►
So that's the one right now.
01:25:44
◼
►
I imagine I'll do more.
01:25:46
◼
►
I haven't gotten back to that,
01:25:47
◼
►
but that was the first one where I had a little,
01:25:50
◼
►
there's a scriptable beta where I can actually do widgets
01:25:52
◼
►
that are on the lock screen and that is fun.
01:25:55
◼
►
'cause I've been using them for the home screen
01:25:58
◼
►
for a while now, but the lock screen is now supported
01:26:01
◼
►
in the beta of Scriptable,
01:26:03
◼
►
and I'm just getting started with that.
01:26:06
◼
►
But having the live like temperature,
01:26:08
◼
►
the same temperature that's in my menu bar of my Mac
01:26:10
◼
►
is now on the lock screen of my iPhone, and that's awesome.
01:26:14
◼
►
- So I'm using a bunch, obviously, you know me.
01:26:18
◼
►
The one that goes on top of the time,
01:26:21
◼
►
I think it's called Inline.
01:26:23
◼
►
just text. I'm using Apple's calendar right now. I like it because it tells me to date
01:26:27
◼
►
and my next appointment. Eventually I hope to change this to Fantastic Al. I hope that
01:26:34
◼
►
they will also have this same configuration. I like it. I then have weather. I will eventually
01:26:41
◼
►
change this to Carrot Weather. And that's in the one that's got a bunch of text. It's
01:26:44
◼
►
like the long rectangle one. It's giving me the current conditions. And I expect that
01:26:51
◼
►
But Cara Weather will let me choose everything that goes there, the same as they do with
01:26:56
◼
►
Then I'm using a Timery, current time tracker one.
01:27:01
◼
►
And then a pedometer app thing.
01:27:06
◼
►
I'm not saying where, because that's all in beta.
01:27:12
◼
►
The Timery one's in beta, but they've spoken about it publicly.
01:27:15
◼
►
But I also have my steps being counted as well, which I like.
01:27:18
◼
►
That's what I have right now.
01:27:20
◼
►
I don't know what it will look like when I actually get more of these from the apps that
01:27:25
◼
►
I only have two apps right now that I'm on the beta for that have this included in them.
01:27:31
◼
►
One is Tymerean and the other is the one that showed me my steps.
01:27:36
◼
►
That's what I have right now.
01:27:37
◼
►
And I don't know how much more I'll change except for where I've said like I'll swap
01:27:42
◼
►
things out for the actual apps that I use.
01:27:45
◼
►
That's what I'm waiting for is I'm waiting for the other apps that I used so that I can
01:27:48
◼
►
and browse through those and see if there are ones there
01:27:50
◼
►
that I wanna integrate too.
01:27:51
◼
►
But I'm also okay, at this point, I'm also okay
01:27:54
◼
►
with the fact that I can build my own if I need to,
01:27:56
◼
►
which is kind of fun.
01:27:57
◼
►
- But that kind of, the kind of information
01:28:00
◼
►
I have there right now is the kind of information
01:28:03
◼
►
that I would want on my lock screen.
01:28:06
◼
►
That's the kind of stuff.
01:28:07
◼
►
- A calendar thing for sure.
01:28:08
◼
►
I'm just, I don't wanna use Apple's calendar stuff.
01:28:10
◼
►
So I'm waiting for fantastic help in the fall.
01:28:14
◼
►
And I will definitely add that somewhere.
01:28:17
◼
►
A question of where, right?
01:28:18
◼
►
'Cause that up by the date is really powerful
01:28:21
◼
►
and yet it's also really limited
01:28:23
◼
►
'cause it's just that little inline text snippet.
01:28:25
◼
►
- I think that for me, that's perfect.
01:28:27
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If, because I like that I can also get
01:28:30
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that added piece of information on the lock screen,
01:28:32
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which is the date.
01:28:34
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I like that.
01:28:36
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►
- I like that being there.
01:28:37
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►
Eric asks, "I needed to get an M1 iMac for a family member
01:28:42
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and they are way back ordered or unavailable.
01:28:45
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Do you think this is supply chain related
01:28:47
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or do you think there's a pending update?
01:28:50
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- I think it's supply chain related.
01:28:51
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Mark Gurman is to be believed.
01:28:54
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They're not even worried about an M2 iMac right now.
01:28:57
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And maybe I hope there is an M2 iMac,
01:29:00
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►
but I feel like this is supply chain related
01:29:02
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and factory shutdowns.
01:29:03
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►
And they were probably prioritizing the laptops
01:29:05
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►
and that's why.
01:29:07
◼
►
- Yeah, I think like going back
01:29:08
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►
to what we were talking about earlier,
01:29:10
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►
clearly the Mac is most impacted right now.
01:29:12
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►
And as you said, they're probably,
01:29:15
◼
►
if it's legacy node related,
01:29:16
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►
they're probably cannibalizing some chips
01:29:18
◼
►
to go in other places, you know, like.
01:29:21
◼
►
- I think, yeah, I think selling a lot of MacBook Airs
01:29:24
◼
►
that are very, very popular
01:29:25
◼
►
is gonna take more money off the table
01:29:28
◼
►
than having a bunch of iMacs in inventory, right?
01:29:31
◼
►
So I think that's it.
01:29:32
◼
►
I mean, Apple loves all its computers equally,
01:29:35
◼
►
but you know, if you have to choose
01:29:38
◼
►
getting that new MacBook Air out there
01:29:40
◼
►
or prioritizing the iMac, I know which one I would choose.
01:29:44
◼
►
And Ramon asks, what do you think about replacing
01:29:48
◼
►
the potential of Apple replacing the 13 inch MacBook Pro
01:29:52
◼
►
with a 12 inch MacBook Pro that has a new design?
01:29:55
◼
►
Perhaps there's some options to put faster chips in
01:29:59
◼
►
or maybe a better screen, that kind of thing.
01:30:01
◼
►
- Don't think Apple is gonna do a 12 inch Pro.
01:30:06
◼
►
12 inch Air, yes.
01:30:10
◼
►
12 inch Pro, I don't think so.
01:30:12
◼
►
I think smaller, packing more heat into a smaller area,
01:30:15
◼
►
it's just not a thing that they're gonna wanna do.
01:30:17
◼
►
So I think, I just don't think that's likely.
01:30:21
◼
►
I think that the 14 is the new 13
01:30:24
◼
►
and the 13 is a weird outlier computer
01:30:26
◼
►
that will go away at some point.
01:30:28
◼
►
And then the MacBook Pro will be the 14 and the 16.
01:30:30
◼
►
- Yeah, I'm thinking we're more likely to see
01:30:34
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►
the removal of that product completely
01:30:38
◼
►
and replaced with more MacBook Air options
01:30:41
◼
►
and bringing the prices down over all over time
01:30:46
◼
►
and then that just reshuffles and that thing disappears.
01:30:49
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►
I think that's it.
01:30:51
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►
If you would like to send in a question of your own
01:30:54
◼
►
for us to answer on the show, just send out a tweet with the hashtag #AskUpgrade
01:30:58
◼
►
or use question mark #AskUpgrade in the Real FM members discord.
01:31:02
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►
I would like to thank Capital One, Bombas and Sourcegraph for the support of this episode
01:31:06
◼
►
and of course thank you for listening and a special thanks to our members
01:31:11
◼
►
who subscribe to Upgrade Plus. If you want to find Jason online in the
01:31:15
◼
►
meantime until next week's episode you can find him at sixcolors.com
01:31:19
◼
►
the incomparable.com and Jason hosts many more shows here at Relay FM just
01:31:24
◼
►
like I do you go to relay.fm/shows and find
01:31:27
◼
►
a new podcast put in your queue. I am @imike and we'll be back
01:31:33
◼
►
next week. Until then Jason Snow. Say goodbye.
01:31:38
◼
►
Goodbye everybody.