436: I Bend So Many Spoons
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(upbeat music)
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From Relay FM, this is Upgrade, episode 436.
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Today's show is brought to you by StoryWorth,
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Capital One, and Ooni Pizza Ovens.
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Here is your host, Jason Snell.
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- Thank you, Myke.
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Hello, everybody.
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We are back for another Myke-less, almost,
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episode of Upgrade.
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I am Jason Snell and I am hosting this episode with a very special guest
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Returning to upgrade for the I actually have lost count half a dozen or so time. It is John, Syracuse. Oh, hi John
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When you say mic lists, we both have mics in front of us, but that's okay, right? You didn't hear the why?
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It's like tire with a why?
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It is I just put that together. Yeah, but not not choir because that has a qu you
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- It's the, we, that's a different pod,
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that's not "Robot or Not" that we're doing now.
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That's a totally different podcast that we're doing
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about weird English spelling and things.
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Anyway, I just, for this trip,
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I'm just replacing Myke with a series of guys named John.
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- Mm-hmm, as you do.
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There's so many of us, why not?
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Why not take advantage of the bounty?
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- I bought the six pack at Costco,
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and you know, you gotta use them all.
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But we start off with the #snelltalk question,
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which I'm also gonna apply to my guests,
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which I have again posed myself because I wanna know,
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John, what is your Christmas shopping strategy?
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- Hmm, I mean, I have to say I have never been good
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at gift giving or buying.
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My main skill lies in the years that I spent honing my gift asking for abilities as a child.
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That seemed very important for me to develop as a kid.
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So I feel like I'm good at that. I've always been good at making lists of presents that I want,
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and I've been good at figuring out how to get my parents to give them to me.
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And those skills stopped being useful once I left the house.
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And now I'm left with nothing. I not don't do a good job of buying people things. I don't know what to get people things
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It's a problem. So I mean my strategy such as it is is all throughout the year
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I have a notes and you know a document in Apple Notes called gift ideas and
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Anytime there is any inkling of any kind of gift that anybody might like I write
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the gift items a little head headings for people's names and then there's like little bulleted lists of gift ideas for them and
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And then when the holidays come, my strategy is I pull up that document and I hope that there will be some
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headings underneath people's names that aren't already checked off.
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And if they are already checked off, then I go to the people and say, "What do you want? Give me a list.
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I need a list. I can't think of anything."
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Yeah, that's my strategy. It involves a lot of whining and occasionally looking at another's document.
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This is very much
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my strategy too, and my story too. I'm very bad at this. I need people's help.
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help. Fortunately, having been married more than 25 years, you've got—we've gotten to
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the point where our strategy is, for the last three or four months of the year, if there's
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something that you would like to buy yourself, don't do it and tell your spouse instead,
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right? Like, that's the—and listeners to this podcast heard me do that a few weeks
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ago where Myke was talking about the slippers that he liked. And I very much had to say,
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"No, I'm not gonna go buy them. I'm going to mention to Lauren that this would be a
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thing that she could get for me." And by mentioned, do you mean send her the actual link so you
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make sure you get the exact ones that you were looking at? Yeah, exactly. Literally
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sending her a text saying, "Oh, here's a thing you could get me." And she does the same for
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me. Just exact hyperlinks and you have to know if you link to the site and it doesn't
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remember the size that you selected,
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you have to put down the size and the color and.
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- Yeah, and if you're thinking,
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well, also you can kind of artfully,
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like I was like, I don't know which color to pick.
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I'm like, you know what?
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I'm not gonna specify color.
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We're just gonna see what happens.
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And in fact, more broadly, if you're thinking,
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this is no fun because you're never gonna be surprised.
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Friends, let me tell you, if you do enough of them
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and you do them for long enough in advance,
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you've forgotten everything that you said to your partner.
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And so then it's like, oh yeah, I did want this.
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And it's actually kind of nice.
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I think for the past, I don't know, three, five years,
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I don't think I've made it through a Christmas
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without realizing that there's something I purchased
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probably for my wife that I forgot to wrap and give to her
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that I find in a hiding place months later.
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- Yes. - Go, oh,
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I forgot that I got you this for Christmas
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and I forgot to wrap,
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because I have them all squirreled away all over the place.
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And then you totally, especially if you buy it months
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in advance, I totally forget about it.
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- Yeah, I bought a piece of art,
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an art print for Lauren and had it in a tube.
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and then like six months, like, cause it's, it came in a tube and I just put the shipping
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tube like in one of my drawers and then like six months later I'm going through and like,
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what's in this tube? And I opened it up and I was like, oh, oh, that was a Christmas present.
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It's a real surprise. It's a surprise, Christmas present in July.
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And I appreciate your idea that you have a notes document. I, I have a reminders list
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called end of year gift ideas.
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That is where I put all the ideas, not only for my family,
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but also I have the, you know,
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do something nice for the incomparable hosts
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and what's the item gonna be,
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the annual item gonna be for the incomparable members
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who get like something in the mail.
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I have them all in there.
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So that is my, they're all mixed in together.
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'cause it really, I just, as with so much in reminders,
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it's literally like, I just wanna get this idea down
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because I know that in two hours, I'm gonna be like,
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hey, I had a good idea, what was it?
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And it's not gonna come to me.
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- I think you can get rid of the end of the year
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or end of year prefix there and just call it gift ideas
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and change the icon from a snowflake, ha ha,
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to a box or something.
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- Can I do that? - Because it's like,
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what about like, you know, just random gifts?
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Like I have gift ideas for people
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who I've never purchased a gift for,
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but I feel like if I had ever had to purchase a gift
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for them or wanted to, this is what I would get them.
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- Wonder, could I do a box?
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I mean, there's squares, but I don't know.
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- Also consider title case.
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- There is a box.
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Well, yeah, you can see that I was just desperate
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to get to the list when I decided this.
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Okay, Jon, I have taken your advice.
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- And you've capitalized, wow, look at that.
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You're like a professional now.
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There's a box and it says gift ideas.
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And the item is gone down now that you purchased the gift for me.
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Actually, I discovered that a gift that I gave Lauren for our anniversary was on that
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list so I checked it off.
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John, as I can tell from the sound of your dog barking in the background, I wanted to
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do a little follow out to ATP, generally, because you talk about your life and your
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house on that podcast, the Accidental Tech Podcast.
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Also it's direct gifts as well.
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- The re, did I say the rectiffs?
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- No, you said the accidental tech podcast.
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- Oh, the accidental tech podcast.
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I was, well, it's a, the, the, and then the-
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- So that would be T-A-T-B.
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- The quote, no, no, the quote mark comes after the the.
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It's the quote accidental tech podcast,
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if that is its real name.
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Although I do kind of want to call it the rectiffs now.
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I think that's kind of fun.
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You hear the rectiffs?
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I don't know about that Merlin.
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It's like things that my mom would say
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She listened to podcasts.
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- I know, Bez listens to rec-diffs and she does say that.
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- Ah, I went to your house.
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I was in your house last week.
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- You were there too, I didn't like break in.
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- My impression of it was that it was much nicer
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than I thought, but that's only because I only knew
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about it from listening to the complaints
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of the person who lives there.
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- No, and also it's like Disneyland,
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like we control the sight lines.
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- That's true, that's true.
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I didn't go upstairs.
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- You didn't, so you're sitting on the couch,
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but above your head was the majority of the peeling paint.
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And then where you see in your eye line
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was the lesser peeling paint.
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- There is some peeling paint in the corner of the ceiling
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and off to my right in that corner.
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- There's way more than that.
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It's everywhere.
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It's everywhere slightly out of your eye line.
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- Well, John, honestly,
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after I complimented your house for being nice,
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the last thing I wanted to do
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is start pointing out the flaws.
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I thought you're aware.
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- Yeah, I know.
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Then you start seeing them.
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I mean, I could have pointed them all out to you,
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but we would have been all right.
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the satisfaction of that, quite frankly.
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But I do, I do, we had Chinese food, we recorded a podcast,
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it's gonna be this week's episode of The Incomparable,
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we talk about Andor, the Star Wars show.
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Daisy, your dog, barked a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot.
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Her house was invaded by people.
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- I mean, I wouldn't say it's a lot.
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She barked a little bit, and then she was basically menacing
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for the rest of the time.
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- She did menace some people,
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most specifically Brian Hamilton,
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but she did menace some people, it's true.
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- She smells fear, and when she smells fear,
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it makes her afraid.
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- Interesting, and then she's even more on edge.
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Yeah, she actually was really good with me,
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but like I have a dog. - 'Cause you're a dog person.
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- I've had dogs, and I understand dogs,
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So I was not afraid of her and I got her,
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I kind of got her in that way.
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Although it did strike me that having a dog,
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I mean, I sort of understood it conceptually
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that you have to deal with the dog for podcasting reasons.
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But it was only as I sat there and heard her bark
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that I thought, oh, this would actually be a big problem
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for podcasting.
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- And now you get to hear it on your very own podcast.
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- It's good, I mean, it's topical.
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- It's my fault.
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Next time I'll say,
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because you start the podcast at 1 p.m.
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and then you don't have to deal with this.
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'Cause she goes off to her doggy play date.
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- Okay, we would have had to make all the people
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who listen to live to upgrade, which you can do.
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- Oh yeah, right, well anyway, enjoy.
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- Pacific, Eastern.
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But she did, I didn't, I think I may have poked my head
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into your office, but basically I didn't see.
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I didn't look around in there, I didn't see.
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- You should have, I cleaned it for everybody.
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- I appreciate it, it was very clean.
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Very, very nice, very nice house.
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It's got all the holiday decorations wore up.
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You too have a picture from your wedding
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where you and Tina look like kids playing dress up,
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which is what my wedding picture with Lauren looks like.
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It's exactly the same picture.
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But, and I didn't, I honestly, as we were walking up,
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I was like, I know so many stories
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about things that happen in this house.
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It was a little weird.
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It was almost like going to like a movie set or something.
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It's like, I know way.
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- You could have gone into my kitchen
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and looked at how level my refrigerator doors are.
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Like you could have checked out the toaster.
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So much you could have done.
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- There is, you know, I didn't look at the toaster at all.
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However, I did take a glass of water out of the tap
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and then thought it had a funny taste,
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dumped it out and-
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- You are insane on tap water, it's awesome.
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- Went to your filtered water in the Brita pitcher instead.
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- Which tastes like Brita filter.
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- I felt it had no taste, but your water had a taste to it.
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There was something there.
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I never take tap water and then dump it out.
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I never do that.
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And I was like, you know, I bet if the tap water tastes
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like this, I bet there's a Brita pitcher in the,
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well, first I thought, I bet, you know,
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I could get filtered water from the refrigerator.
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And then of course your refrigerator's hooked up to water.
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- I didn't even know that thing was there.
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I totally forgotten about it.
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- And so then I pressed the button.
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I was like, oh, right.
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So then I saw that there was a Brita pitcher
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and I was like, well, great.
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I would have otherwise had the tap water,
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but I dumped the tap water.
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- Maybe you didn't let it run long enough.
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That might've been the thing too.
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- I did, we did have that conversation
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sometimes they tell you you gotta run the tap a little bit. So everybody else, see,
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yes, because everybody else is like, "Oh, the water is fine," but maybe I took the
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bullet there and I had the bad water at the beginning and then it smoothed out.
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Yeah, now in terms of tasting water, Long Island water, best tasting, where I came from
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on Long Island. It's right from underneath the island, the sand just filters it all out.
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Filters are great.
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That's number one. And I think number two is probably maybe New York City water from
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the upstate reservoirs and number three is Massachusetts.
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And then a distant 99th is the places in California
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that I've been.
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- Well, our water here is excellent
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because it comes from the mountains.
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- It's a great.
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I mean, it's not chlorinated Pennsylvania water.
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I'm not saying it's that bad, but.
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- So speaking of your office,
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I just, I wanted to do a quick check in with you.
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It's been less than a year, but like, how is your,
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how is that working at home
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and being an independent content creator
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and programmer on the internet that isn't going to a job
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or zooming into a job or whatever every day.
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I know you were remote for a lot of it
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as so many of us were.
00:13:15
◼
►
How's it going?
00:13:17
◼
►
Switch Glass is at 2.0 now.
00:13:19
◼
►
You're continuing your long game
00:13:21
◼
►
of very slowly replicating drag thing.
00:13:24
◼
►
- I don't think that's my long game.
00:13:26
◼
►
Like here's the thing about Switch Glass.
00:13:27
◼
►
I like working on that app.
00:13:30
◼
►
Obviously I wanted it so I could have it on my Mac.
00:13:32
◼
►
But then once I've done that I also like working on the app. I like making Mac apps
00:13:35
◼
►
It's a thing I always wanted to do and now I get to do it
00:13:38
◼
►
I'm always kind of like looking for excuses to do things to the app to improve it fix bugs add features stuff like that
00:13:43
◼
►
But it does not make money
00:13:45
◼
►
I mean, I mean it makes I'm not saying I make zero dollars
00:13:49
◼
►
But I mean maybe it makes enough money for me to get a nice meal out once a month
00:13:53
◼
►
Like that's the kind of money that so I the amount of time I spend on that I feel
00:13:57
◼
►
Guilty about because it is not a useful
00:14:01
◼
►
Use of my time right it's like I should just never work on it again because it is never going to bring in you know
00:14:08
◼
►
Enough money to be worth the time I spend on it
00:14:11
◼
►
So I read it like I treat it like playing destiny like it's a fun thing that I enjoy doing
00:14:16
◼
►
But I don't fool myself into thinking it's work
00:14:18
◼
►
And so that's part of how things are going is like there are lots of things that attract me interestingly not destiny because since I
00:14:24
◼
►
Quit my job if you look at my destiny hours
00:14:26
◼
►
I'm one of those you know sites that tracks how much you play I am playing like
00:14:30
◼
►
massively less destiny than I used to,
00:14:32
◼
►
which has surprised me.
00:14:34
◼
►
Although now that I'm in it, it makes sense to me
00:14:36
◼
►
because I just feel guilty ever goofing off.
00:14:40
◼
►
But working on Switch Glass
00:14:42
◼
►
is in the category of goofing off
00:14:43
◼
►
and I have to stop myself from doing it
00:14:45
◼
►
and concentrate more on other things,
00:14:47
◼
►
spend my time on things that actually have a chance
00:14:50
◼
►
of making me more than minimum wage
00:14:52
◼
►
for the hours that I spend doing them.
00:14:54
◼
►
And Switch Glass ain't it.
00:14:57
◼
►
- I mean, it's like a hobby basically, right?
00:14:59
◼
►
I mean, this is how I feel about when I'm doing like Python scripting of a home thing,
00:15:05
◼
►
It's like, it's fun, but it doesn't pay any bills.
00:15:08
◼
►
Yeah, I mean, but the thing about Twitch Glass is like, making applications is a thing that
00:15:12
◼
►
can make you money, just not any of the applications that I've written, because they're so narrow
00:15:16
◼
►
interest and weird and have probably made all the money they're ever going to make.
00:15:21
◼
►
So it's like, oh, if you want to make an app, find one that has a chance of making money.
00:15:27
◼
►
and I'm, you know, so far I haven't gotten there.
00:15:29
◼
►
- Okay, well, I have an idea for an Apple Watch app
00:15:31
◼
►
for curling that I'll share with you at a later time.
00:15:34
◼
►
- Apple Watch is not a Mac.
00:15:35
◼
►
- I know it's not.
00:15:36
◼
►
I know it's not.
00:15:37
◼
►
I bet there are good, honestly, Jon,
00:15:39
◼
►
I was thinking about this.
00:15:40
◼
►
There are, there are so many, like, like people,
00:15:45
◼
►
I know there are new Mac apps from time to time,
00:15:47
◼
►
but like the Mac so often feels like a place
00:15:51
◼
►
that nobody really wants to make new apps for,
00:15:53
◼
►
especially utility apps,
00:15:55
◼
►
that I feel like you're a couple of steps away
00:15:58
◼
►
from finding some, like tapping into some kind
00:16:02
◼
►
of perfect place where there's something
00:16:04
◼
►
that Mac users want to see.
00:16:06
◼
►
But then again, maybe not,
00:16:07
◼
►
maybe nobody who's using a Mac cares
00:16:10
◼
►
about like nice little utilities like they used to.
00:16:13
◼
►
- Well, when you say utility apps,
00:16:14
◼
►
like those are the type of apps that I like to make.
00:16:16
◼
►
Like, but it's from my, from being raised in an environment
00:16:20
◼
►
where my favorite Mac apps are ones that modified
00:16:23
◼
►
augmented the system in some way and that door has been closing for so long
00:16:28
◼
►
that like there are things I want to do with switch glass that I can't do. I have
00:16:32
◼
►
ideas for other kinds of apps that are sort of system modification apps that I
00:16:35
◼
►
just can't do because they're not possible like maybe they would have been
00:16:40
◼
►
possible in the old days with hacksies or whatever but in the modern Mac they're
00:16:44
◼
►
just not possible. If Apple doesn't provide hooks for the functionality you
00:16:47
◼
►
want to mess with it's I mean it's beyond my skill to hack into the system
00:16:51
◼
►
to do it, and even if you did, then you have the problem of,
00:16:53
◼
►
okay, you can't sell this on the Mac App Store,
00:16:55
◼
►
so now you're signing up to making your own website
00:16:57
◼
►
to sell these things, or using some other third-party
00:17:00
◼
►
reseller, or hooking up Stripe, or whatever.
00:17:02
◼
►
And I can do all of that, but there's no way
00:17:05
◼
►
that I'm gonna make an app that makes enough money
00:17:06
◼
►
to even pay for my time that it would take
00:17:08
◼
►
to make my own Mac software store
00:17:13
◼
►
that people buy things to,
00:17:14
◼
►
and then I have to do customer support for it.
00:17:16
◼
►
The overhead of that is so massive
00:17:18
◼
►
that I would need to come up with an idea
00:17:20
◼
►
that I actually pay for that,
00:17:21
◼
►
and all my ideas are like weird things
00:17:23
◼
►
that modify the behavior of the system
00:17:26
◼
►
in a way that Apple does not support, will never support,
00:17:28
◼
►
and honestly, I don't even know if they're possible.
00:17:31
◼
►
- And so that's why I just like, I muse about those,
00:17:34
◼
►
but, you know, and that's what I wanna make.
00:17:36
◼
►
I don't wanna make a Notes application, a to-do app,
00:17:39
◼
►
or, and if you do wanna make one, a regular Mac app,
00:17:41
◼
►
not like a utility type thing,
00:17:43
◼
►
then you're basically on the hook to make an iPad
00:17:45
◼
►
and an iPhone one, and maybe a watch one,
00:17:47
◼
►
because nobody buys a Mac app
00:17:49
◼
►
and is just satisfied to have the Mac app
00:17:51
◼
►
unless it is Mac specific, right?
00:17:54
◼
►
- Like if it modifies the Mac like my thing does,
00:17:56
◼
►
no one wants Switch Glass on,
00:17:58
◼
►
well, they probably do want an iPad, sorry everybody,
00:18:00
◼
►
but no one wants it on their phone or their watch.
00:18:02
◼
►
But if you make a Notes app,
00:18:04
◼
►
people are gonna want it everywhere
00:18:05
◼
►
and it's gonna have to sync
00:18:06
◼
►
and then now you're talking about a real app
00:18:08
◼
►
and you probably, you know, so.
00:18:10
◼
►
Anyway, I try to limit my hours on Switch Glass
00:18:13
◼
►
in front and center.
00:18:14
◼
►
- I get it, I get it.
00:18:16
◼
►
I mean, what are you doing
00:18:18
◼
►
if those things don't pay the bills, what pays the bills?
00:18:21
◼
►
Is that working up an idea for some more ATP merch?
00:18:25
◼
►
Or is it, I mean, 'cause otherwise,
00:18:28
◼
►
other than programming, is everything else you're doing
00:18:31
◼
►
that pays the bills podcast related?
00:18:34
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, there's all the stuff
00:18:35
◼
►
that's behind the scenes in terms of the ATP store,
00:18:38
◼
►
for example, like I tend to make all of the shirt designs
00:18:42
◼
►
that aren't done by professional designers.
00:18:44
◼
►
I do all the, you know, the getting those images ready,
00:18:47
◼
►
uploading them, specifying the products, working with the stores to get that
00:18:51
◼
►
stuff online at the little ATP.fm/store page, the dinky little HTML page, I'm
00:18:56
◼
►
the one who updates that, and you know like and you know just doing the show
00:19:00
◼
►
notes every week, gathering links, doing research, reading things, watching videos,
00:19:04
◼
►
everything that needs to be done for the show and for my multiple shows right and
00:19:09
◼
►
yeah that when I spend time doing that I can now spend more time doing that and
00:19:13
◼
►
not feel so rushed when I'm doing it and that counts as real work because
00:19:16
◼
►
because podcasts actually do pay the bills.
00:19:20
◼
►
- I like the fact that you're doing merch stuff
00:19:23
◼
►
because I feel like, Myke and I talk about it a bit,
00:19:26
◼
►
but we feel like that's one of the great unexplored aspects
00:19:30
◼
►
of a lot of what we do.
00:19:33
◼
►
I know that he and Gray do a good job with Cortex with that,
00:19:36
◼
►
but like, I felt like with "Six Colors"
00:19:38
◼
►
and "The Incomparable" and with "Upgrade"
00:19:40
◼
►
that there's more to be done there, right?
00:19:42
◼
►
Like anybody who has bought a sweatshirt from us
00:19:44
◼
►
or something knows that like it's super sporadic.
00:19:48
◼
►
And we do sometimes think, okay, we're gonna do this
00:19:51
◼
►
and we're gonna get a design and we do it.
00:19:53
◼
►
And it's fun, but there's no like real plan or discipline
00:19:58
◼
►
put into like, here's when we're gonna do our merch
00:20:02
◼
►
and here's what the designs are that are possible
00:20:05
◼
►
and what are we gonna do?
00:20:06
◼
►
We don't like, we don't do that.
00:20:09
◼
►
And so it's either we adjust our schedule to do that
00:20:14
◼
►
or we find somebody to help us with it,
00:20:17
◼
►
but it's a real thing.
00:20:19
◼
►
And all the new ATP merch is, you know,
00:20:22
◼
►
would that have happened without you putting time on it?
00:20:26
◼
►
Yeah, maybe.
00:20:28
◼
►
- I was always doing this, but again,
00:20:29
◼
►
now I don't have to do it in such a frantic rush.
00:20:31
◼
►
I don't have to like sacrifice sleep to do it.
00:20:33
◼
►
Like I can do it during normal working hours.
00:20:35
◼
►
And it's just the normal bookkeeping stuff
00:20:37
◼
►
or like obviously the chicken hat involved me specifically
00:20:40
◼
►
'cause I was going back and forth with the Studio Neat folks
00:20:42
◼
►
with fabric samples and getting that thing
00:20:45
◼
►
the way we wanted it.
00:20:46
◼
►
But even just things like,
00:20:49
◼
►
we do have a fairly regimented sales.
00:20:50
◼
►
We do a holiday sale towards the end of the year.
00:20:53
◼
►
We do a pre-WWDC sale, which is kind of a relic
00:20:56
◼
►
from when we used to want people to have the shirts
00:20:57
◼
►
so they could wear them at WWDC.
00:20:59
◼
►
That doesn't really matter anymore.
00:21:01
◼
►
And we try to have sales at regular intervals
00:21:06
◼
►
and the winter/fall sales,
00:21:07
◼
►
we sell the long sleeve warm stuff and the winter hats
00:21:10
◼
►
and in the summer ones we sell t-shirts.
00:21:13
◼
►
But all year, kind of like the gift ideas document,
00:21:15
◼
►
I'm always thinking of what would be a good idea
00:21:17
◼
►
for a t-shirt design or for some piece of merch
00:21:20
◼
►
that we could do that we haven't done before.
00:21:22
◼
►
And those come to me at random intervals.
00:21:24
◼
►
And when they come, I have to strike while the iron is hot,
00:21:27
◼
►
come up with the design, maybe I throw it away
00:21:29
◼
►
'cause it actually wasn't a good idea to begin with.
00:21:32
◼
►
We've been cruising on these M1 shirts for a while
00:21:35
◼
►
just because that was such a nice coincidence
00:21:36
◼
►
that Apple did that and I enjoy making the little chips
00:21:39
◼
►
on the back and everything,
00:21:40
◼
►
and those will probably continue to trend along.
00:21:42
◼
►
But I'm looking for other things like the chicken hat
00:21:45
◼
►
or even the mugs, like weird stuff that we haven't done
00:21:47
◼
►
before that it turns out people like.
00:21:48
◼
►
And we try them out and we see if people like them.
00:21:51
◼
►
Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.
00:21:52
◼
►
Apparently people love chicken hats.
00:21:54
◼
►
They didn't really like pins,
00:21:55
◼
►
so we haven't done pins for a while.
00:21:58
◼
►
But yeah, that's more of a creative endeavor,
00:22:01
◼
►
like sitting down and trying to come up with some designs
00:22:04
◼
►
that you think will print okay on a shirt
00:22:06
◼
►
that are funny and interesting
00:22:07
◼
►
that will make people wanna buy one.
00:22:09
◼
►
As somebody who, you have definitely told the stories
00:22:12
◼
►
of having bought products that you love
00:22:14
◼
►
because you wanna have backups
00:22:16
◼
►
for when they're inevitably discontinued.
00:22:19
◼
►
And I've done that too.
00:22:20
◼
►
Not as much as you, but I've definitely done that
00:22:23
◼
►
where it's like, oh no, they made a new version
00:22:26
◼
►
of this thing that is no good.
00:22:27
◼
►
And they're still, the old one is still available.
00:22:30
◼
►
I'm buying another one of those right now
00:22:32
◼
►
before they go out of stock forever.
00:22:36
◼
►
But like the chicken hat took it to a whole new level, right?
00:22:39
◼
►
Cause you were, as you mentioned,
00:22:41
◼
►
you work with Studio Neat to replicate a hat you love that they don't make
00:22:46
◼
►
anymore. Um, you never,
00:22:48
◼
►
did you ever send them your hat or did you just sort of describe it and they
00:22:52
◼
►
tried to figure out what your hat was?
00:22:53
◼
►
I didn't send the, they asked and I refuse cause when am I going to send them
00:22:57
◼
►
my one original hat? No, it's not going to happen. Um, but I sent them many,
00:23:01
◼
►
many pictures, many pictures with rulers laying on top of it,
00:23:04
◼
►
with the prototypes laid on top of the thing,
00:23:06
◼
►
like just so many pictures, so many dimensions,
00:23:09
◼
►
the hat turned inside out so you could see
00:23:10
◼
►
how it's constructed.
00:23:12
◼
►
There were lots of images going back and forth on Slack
00:23:14
◼
►
to work up the design of the new hat.
00:23:17
◼
►
- And is it a good match?
00:23:18
◼
►
- Yeah, like one of the last round of things,
00:23:21
◼
►
the last prototype, you can lay it on top of my hat
00:23:23
◼
►
and they are exactly the same dimensions.
00:23:26
◼
►
The only difference, as I said on the show,
00:23:27
◼
►
is the material is not as thick.
00:23:28
◼
►
We got as thick as we possibly could
00:23:29
◼
►
from the same company that made the material,
00:23:31
◼
►
but they just don't make material as thick anymore.
00:23:33
◼
►
- Interesting.
00:23:34
◼
►
And again, I would tap that as a feature
00:23:37
◼
►
because already people bought the chicken hat and wore it
00:23:39
◼
►
and they're like, I cannot believe how hot this hat is.
00:23:41
◼
►
I'm like, can you imagine if it was twice as thick?
00:23:43
◼
►
Yeah, I'm one of those people who's always cold.
00:23:46
◼
►
Most people are not like me.
00:23:47
◼
►
So I think the thinner chicken hat is an advantage.
00:23:50
◼
►
- Are you gonna do a second run?
00:23:52
◼
►
- Well, we've already done multiple runs.
00:23:53
◼
►
We've already massively underestimated
00:23:56
◼
►
how many people wanted these and scrambled
00:23:57
◼
►
to get another order.
00:23:58
◼
►
And in fact, we have a third order coming in right now.
00:24:00
◼
►
So by the time you listen to this,
00:24:02
◼
►
you may be able to go to atp.com/store
00:24:04
◼
►
and buy a new chicken hat.
00:24:05
◼
►
But either way, we're going to announce
00:24:07
◼
►
when they're available on the ATP podcast,
00:24:10
◼
►
because there was a backlog of people
00:24:11
◼
►
who wanted them and couldn't get them.
00:24:13
◼
►
- You don't wanna do it here?
00:24:14
◼
►
- I mean, they're not, they just shipped
00:24:16
◼
►
from our manufacturer to Cotton Bureau.
00:24:19
◼
►
They haven't arrived at Cotton Bureau yet,
00:24:21
◼
►
and we don't wanna put them up in the store
00:24:22
◼
►
until they've arrived, 'cause what if they get lost
00:24:23
◼
►
in the mail or something?
00:24:24
◼
►
Once they arrive at Cotton Bureau--
00:24:26
◼
►
- Cotton Bureau has a let us know when you,
00:24:28
◼
►
if you, when this is back in stock, if you want it,
00:24:31
◼
►
thing on their site, too, for people
00:24:32
◼
►
who have clicked that button.
00:24:34
◼
►
- And that's how we know,
00:24:36
◼
►
that's how we hope we know how many we should order
00:24:38
◼
►
for this final batch.
00:24:39
◼
►
It's how many people were still clicking on the,
00:24:40
◼
►
let me know when this is back in stock.
00:24:42
◼
►
- You say final, but what's gonna happen next
00:24:43
◼
►
is that in a year or two, what you're gonna do
00:24:45
◼
►
is you're gonna do the revised chicken hat
00:24:46
◼
►
that comes in a color and has a different thing on it.
00:24:50
◼
►
- We're already talking about like doing embroidery
00:24:51
◼
►
instead of the tag or whatever, even for this batch.
00:24:54
◼
►
I said, no, for everything during this holiday season,
00:24:56
◼
►
let's just make them all the same
00:24:57
◼
►
'cause it's too complicated.
00:24:59
◼
►
- This V1, this is the first edition chicken hat.
00:25:01
◼
►
- Yeah, and maybe we'll never do it again.
00:25:03
◼
►
That's the other thing about,
00:25:04
◼
►
speaking of having backups and stuff,
00:25:05
◼
►
lots of people, including me and my kids,
00:25:07
◼
►
sometimes they have a shirt and it's like,
00:25:08
◼
►
we haven't sold that shirt in four years.
00:25:10
◼
►
And people are like, oh, I've worn out that T-shirt,
00:25:12
◼
►
I would love a second one.
00:25:13
◼
►
So maybe one of the next ideas that we're gonna do
00:25:15
◼
►
is a like throwback sale where we sell a bunch of shirts
00:25:18
◼
►
we haven't sold in years and years.
00:25:22
◼
►
- It's a good idea.
00:25:24
◼
►
- I have a little bit more housekeeping to do.
00:25:28
◼
►
I wanted to mention, of course, we have Upgrade Plus,
00:25:31
◼
►
If you love the show and want more of it,
00:25:33
◼
►
you get no ads and bonus content every week
00:25:35
◼
►
and access of course to the Relay FM members discord,
00:25:38
◼
►
get upgradeplus.com, $5 a month or $50 a year.
00:25:41
◼
►
And from now until December 17th,
00:25:43
◼
►
you can save 20% on an annual plan.
00:25:46
◼
►
Just find out more at giverelay.com
00:25:48
◼
►
or just use the code 2023holidays to check out.
00:25:51
◼
►
You'll get 20% off your first year
00:25:52
◼
►
of an annual subscription to upgradeplus
00:25:55
◼
►
and then plans renew at the full price after year one.
00:25:58
◼
►
And also go, if you have not yet,
00:26:01
◼
►
to nominate your favorites at upgradees.vote
00:26:04
◼
►
for the ninth annual upgradees.
00:26:07
◼
►
Voting is only open for another week.
00:26:11
◼
►
So please do it now.
00:26:12
◼
►
It helps us a lot, allows the voice of the upgradeians
00:26:16
◼
►
to be heard in the upgradees,
00:26:18
◼
►
which we'll be releasing at the end of the year
00:26:20
◼
►
as is our tradition.
00:26:21
◼
►
I believe it'll be on Boxing Day this year.
00:26:24
◼
►
So we need those votes in by next week, by next Monday.
00:26:27
◼
►
So please give it a little bit of time and thought,
00:26:32
◼
►
and we appreciate it.
00:26:34
◼
►
Also, I have a brief amount of follow-up
00:26:37
◼
►
that I just wanted to throw in here
00:26:39
◼
►
before we take our first break.
00:26:41
◼
►
Listener Tim from the iPad Pros podcast
00:26:45
◼
►
sent in a photo that was great.
00:26:48
◼
►
They went to the hospital, he and his partner,
00:26:51
◼
►
to check in on the progress of their pregnancy.
00:26:56
◼
►
One thing led to another.
00:27:00
◼
►
Tim happened to be wearing his upgrade hoodie
00:27:02
◼
►
when they went to the hospital.
00:27:04
◼
►
And that means that Tim was wearing the upgrade hoodie
00:27:07
◼
►
when his child was born two months early.
00:27:11
◼
►
And everybody's home and fine now.
00:27:14
◼
►
And I think it's been a couple of months.
00:27:17
◼
►
But so shout out to Tim for showing off the podcast
00:27:22
◼
►
during a major life event.
00:27:24
◼
►
Also, here's an interesting one.
00:27:26
◼
►
I heard this from a few people inside Apple too,
00:27:28
◼
►
who were kind of surprised by it.
00:27:30
◼
►
Apple Vice President of Software Engineering,
00:27:32
◼
►
John Stover has left Apple to become the genius in charge
00:27:37
◼
►
of technology for Roblox.
00:27:44
◼
►
What do you think about this, John?
00:27:47
◼
►
I mean, everybody, there are lots of reasons
00:27:49
◼
►
to get a new job, including wanting a change
00:27:51
◼
►
and wanting a new challenge.
00:27:52
◼
►
And my understanding is that John Stouffer's kids,
00:27:56
◼
►
kid, kids are Roblox fanatics.
00:27:59
◼
►
And so that's an interesting thing too.
00:28:03
◼
►
But there's Mark Gurman reported this and pointed out
00:28:06
◼
►
that like a lot of Apple people at the VP level,
00:28:08
◼
►
which is one down from the senior VPs
00:28:10
◼
►
that report to Tim Cook, there's been a lot of,
00:28:13
◼
►
and there's like 100, 150 of them.
00:28:15
◼
►
And there've been a bunch of them leaving lately.
00:28:18
◼
►
- I mean, yeah.
00:28:18
◼
►
So when people high up in Apple leave,
00:28:21
◼
►
because two kinds of departures.
00:28:23
◼
►
One, we get less of these these days,
00:28:24
◼
►
but it used to be a big thing.
00:28:26
◼
►
They leave because they're vice presidents
00:28:28
◼
►
because they've been with Apple since 1999
00:28:31
◼
►
and they have so much stock options
00:28:32
◼
►
that they never need to work again.
00:28:34
◼
►
So that's why they leave, right?
00:28:35
◼
►
I'm rich and I've been here out of a sense of loyalty,
00:28:37
◼
►
but at a certain point I go, you know what?
00:28:39
◼
►
I don't need to work anymore.
00:28:40
◼
►
My Apple stock over so much money, I'm out of here.
00:28:42
◼
►
And the second kind is,
00:28:44
◼
►
I haven't been with Apple since 1999,
00:28:47
◼
►
but I am kind of a senior VP.
00:28:48
◼
►
I'm probably not gonna go any farther
00:28:50
◼
►
and Apple is not where the action's happening.
00:28:53
◼
►
You know, where the action's happening, Roblox.
00:28:57
◼
►
And that's not a joke.
00:28:58
◼
►
Like, Roblox went from nothing to making tons of money.
00:29:02
◼
►
It is a new, different kind of business.
00:29:03
◼
►
And if you wanna go somewhere with growth potential
00:29:06
◼
►
that's gonna pay you a ton more than Apple pays you,
00:29:09
◼
►
go to one of these companies that has, you know,
00:29:11
◼
►
this amazing money spigot.
00:29:12
◼
►
Back in the day, it might've been Candy Crush.
00:29:13
◼
►
Today, it's Roblox.
00:29:15
◼
►
It's just a question of whether you can stomach
00:29:16
◼
►
how these companies make money.
00:29:18
◼
►
But the question may also increasingly apply
00:29:20
◼
►
to Apple as well.
00:29:21
◼
►
So if you've been in Apple for a while
00:29:23
◼
►
and you think you've reached your limit
00:29:25
◼
►
of how far you're gonna go in this company
00:29:26
◼
►
and you want to go somewhere where they're gonna pay you
00:29:29
◼
►
a lot more than Apple pays you
00:29:30
◼
►
and have a much more upside with their stock or whatever,
00:29:34
◼
►
someplace like Roblox is where it's at.
00:29:36
◼
►
Apple's not a new up and comer, right?
00:29:38
◼
►
So I think those are the kind of departures you see
00:29:41
◼
►
at the VP level now, where it's like,
00:29:42
◼
►
well, I wanna do something else.
00:29:44
◼
►
I wanna be a bigger fish in a smaller pond
00:29:46
◼
►
They don't want to get paid more money.
00:29:48
◼
►
- Yeah, it makes sense.
00:29:49
◼
►
I mean, this is, and I know we've been saying it here
00:29:52
◼
►
for a long time and I know ATP,
00:29:53
◼
►
you guys have talked about it.
00:29:54
◼
►
Like, Brain Drain is a serious threat for Apple, right?
00:29:58
◼
►
They have a bunch of people who've been there
00:30:01
◼
►
since the beginning of this sort of era
00:30:04
◼
►
of Steve Jobs's return and Apple's massive growth,
00:30:08
◼
►
and they have a lot of money,
00:30:10
◼
►
and they don't need to work necessarily, a lot of them.
00:30:15
◼
►
And then I think with somebody like this,
00:30:17
◼
►
I imagine it's also the case that he looks at this
00:30:19
◼
►
and says, well, Craig's not leaving.
00:30:22
◼
►
So I have nowhere else to go
00:30:24
◼
►
and I want a new challenge, right?
00:30:26
◼
►
- And he might not want Craig's job either
00:30:28
◼
►
because being Craig is different
00:30:29
◼
►
than having Craig's job at Roblox.
00:30:31
◼
►
Because in Roblox, you know what the deal is at Apple.
00:30:35
◼
►
If you have Craig's job, your influence is kind of set.
00:30:40
◼
►
You know what it's gonna be like at Apple.
00:30:42
◼
►
Whereas in Roblox, the CTO or the head of whatever
00:30:45
◼
►
might have much more influence on the direction
00:30:46
◼
►
of that company than Craig has on the influence,
00:30:49
◼
►
on the direction of Apple.
00:30:50
◼
►
- That's also true.
00:30:51
◼
►
Looking for a new challenge though,
00:30:54
◼
►
I just, I keep coming to that.
00:30:55
◼
►
Like I totally get it.
00:30:57
◼
►
- It's also more money.
00:30:58
◼
►
I mean, let's be honest.
00:31:00
◼
►
I'm sure it is.
00:31:01
◼
►
I'm sure it is.
00:31:02
◼
►
But at some point, if you've got all the money,
00:31:04
◼
►
then more money is like, oh, more of that stuff, okay.
00:31:07
◼
►
But maybe not, maybe it doesn't have all the money.
00:31:08
◼
►
I don't know.
00:31:10
◼
►
Also, we've been talking a lot about Apple in China
00:31:13
◼
►
and about Apple's chip design prowess
00:31:16
◼
►
and Taiwan semiconductors prowess in building
00:31:21
◼
►
and making chips and reducing the size of the chips.
00:31:25
◼
►
And, you know, but the,
00:31:28
◼
►
there's so much wrapped around this, right?
00:31:30
◼
►
It's the geopolitical issues and the technical issues.
00:31:34
◼
►
And so we've talked about it a lot.
00:31:36
◼
►
I just wanted to mention a report
00:31:38
◼
►
from the Wall Street Journal pointing out that tomorrow,
00:31:41
◼
►
we record this, Tuesday, December 6th, US President Joe Biden is showing up at a ceremony
00:31:49
◼
►
for the opening, or the, it's like groundbreaking, except they call it like a "tool-in ceremony."
00:31:57
◼
►
It's like they, it's that they stick the, the, I don't know whether that means they
00:32:02
◼
►
stick a shovel in the ground, or whether they open the factory, or they're loading things
00:32:07
◼
►
into the building or what, but it's a ceremony at the new TSMC plant site in Phoenix, which
00:32:16
◼
►
is this part of this idea of like the US wants to induce chip makers to not just make their
00:32:23
◼
►
chips in places like Taiwan, but also in the United States. And this is a, so and Arizona
00:32:29
◼
►
and Phoenix have been trying to do this for a little while now. They had that one that
00:32:32
◼
►
fell through, but this thing seems to be going and happening. A little tidbit from the Wall
00:32:39
◼
►
Street Journal story about this that I thought was interesting is TSMC executives have said
00:32:44
◼
►
it isn't easy to recreate in America the manufacturing ecosystem they have built over decades in
00:32:48
◼
►
Taiwan, drawing on local engineering talent and a network of suppliers, including many
00:32:52
◼
►
in East Asia. TSMC founder Morris Chang said the cost of making chips in Arizona may be
00:32:58
◼
►
at least 50% higher than in Taiwan. So it's an interesting thing that, and obviously Apple
00:33:05
◼
►
is a huge customer of TSMC and may be a customer of them for the chips here. Could be just
00:33:12
◼
►
this is the price you pay if you want to diversify, if you want chip making in America and you
00:33:16
◼
►
want to diversify your chip making so that your eggs are not all in one basket. But still,
00:33:21
◼
►
from a pure economic standpoint, 50% higher is quite a penalty to pay.
00:33:27
◼
►
- Well, from a strategic perspective,
00:33:30
◼
►
everyone's just got to eat this because I think, you know,
00:33:34
◼
►
if it was always theoretically untenable
00:33:36
◼
►
and now it's becoming more practically untenable
00:33:39
◼
►
to have such important functionality so far
00:33:43
◼
►
from the US's sphere of influence, right?
00:33:47
◼
►
To have so much manufacturing happening in China,
00:33:49
◼
►
which is a country that we don't see eye on
00:33:51
◼
►
on a lot of things and to have TSMC being in Taiwan
00:33:56
◼
►
also a potentially volatile region,
00:33:59
◼
►
not to mention the fact that none of the companies are,
00:34:02
◼
►
you know, American companies.
00:34:04
◼
►
Intel used to be the big dog
00:34:06
◼
►
in semiconductor manufacturing, but no more, right?
00:34:09
◼
►
So Apple's sort of long-term strategic project
00:34:14
◼
►
that is going to continue on long past the tenure
00:34:16
◼
►
of Tim Cook is to basically undo everything Tim Cook did
00:34:19
◼
►
in terms of manufacturing and not so much get us out
00:34:21
◼
►
of China, but remove, Apple needs to remove its dependency
00:34:25
◼
►
and that's going to take literal decades.
00:34:27
◼
►
And it's just this long project, right?
00:34:29
◼
►
And then the US, their problem is,
00:34:31
◼
►
we used to be important in semiconductor manufacturing
00:34:34
◼
►
and now we're not anymore.
00:34:36
◼
►
And semiconductors are not going away
00:34:38
◼
►
and are not going to become unimportant anytime soon.
00:34:40
◼
►
So America, it would make sense for us as a country
00:34:44
◼
►
and a government to invest money
00:34:45
◼
►
to get semiconductor manufacturing expertise
00:34:50
◼
►
in this country.
00:34:51
◼
►
Having TSMC have a plant here, that's better than nothing.
00:34:55
◼
►
What would be even better?
00:34:56
◼
►
And I'm sure Intel would agree is,
00:34:57
◼
►
hey, Intel says, hey, give us billions of dollars
00:34:59
◼
►
in government money, and we'll get better
00:35:01
◼
►
at making semiconductors again.
00:35:03
◼
►
There's lots of different ways this can go,
00:35:05
◼
►
but there's no avoiding,
00:35:07
◼
►
this is a task that everyone has to undertake,
00:35:09
◼
►
and it's going to be expensive and painful
00:35:12
◼
►
and time-consuming for everybody,
00:35:13
◼
►
for Apple, for the US government.
00:35:15
◼
►
And in the end, we're not gonna be able
00:35:16
◼
►
to make things as inexpensively, right?
00:35:18
◼
►
But that's a strategic cost.
00:35:20
◼
►
The same way we subsidize corn out the wazoo
00:35:22
◼
►
and subsidize oil, we need to subsidize semiconductors.
00:35:26
◼
►
They're just as an important commodity in the future.
00:35:28
◼
►
And it's not good for us to be dependent
00:35:30
◼
►
on Taiwan's semiconductor.
00:35:31
◼
►
But I mean us, I mean the little rest of the planet.
00:35:34
◼
►
It depends because they're the only people
00:35:36
◼
►
who can make the very best chips.
00:35:38
◼
►
And everybody in the world wants a phone
00:35:40
◼
►
manufactured at three nanometers, right?
00:35:42
◼
►
- Also the fundamental issue of like,
00:35:45
◼
►
how do you get the manufacturing ecosystem
00:35:48
◼
►
that they built over the decades in Taiwan?
00:35:51
◼
►
How do you get drawing on local engineering talent?
00:35:53
◼
►
How do you get a network of suppliers?
00:35:55
◼
►
How do you get all of the local knowledge
00:35:58
◼
►
that already exists in Taiwan?
00:35:59
◼
►
And the answer is you have to do it, right?
00:36:01
◼
►
Like it doesn't necessarily mean it is going to happen,
00:36:05
◼
►
but if you don't start this, it won't happen, right?
00:36:08
◼
►
So by doing this, you're like, oh,
00:36:10
◼
►
well now we're gonna get,
00:36:12
◼
►
we're gonna have some of our engineers come in,
00:36:14
◼
►
but we're also gonna hire engineers in the US
00:36:16
◼
►
who are American engineers.
00:36:18
◼
►
And we're gonna, oh, this supply thing
00:36:21
◼
►
is really inconvenient, but now that we're here,
00:36:23
◼
►
there is a financial motivation for somebody else
00:36:26
◼
►
to set up an alternate supply line
00:36:28
◼
►
that runs into Arizona or into the US somewhere.
00:36:32
◼
►
And that is, you know, and the only way you do that
00:36:35
◼
►
is by spending, as you said, by spending the money,
00:36:39
◼
►
essentially, at this point to make it happen,
00:36:40
◼
►
because otherwise, if all else is equal,
00:36:43
◼
►
you will end up with just the TSMC factories
00:36:47
◼
►
that are in Taiwan.
00:36:47
◼
►
So if the US strategically wants this to happen,
00:36:51
◼
►
and they're, you know, again,
00:36:53
◼
►
not saying it will happen that way,
00:36:55
◼
►
but it could happen that way.
00:36:56
◼
►
And it's not gonna, it's not gonna,
00:36:58
◼
►
like when they talked about the Mac Pro assembly in the US,
00:37:02
◼
►
or they talked about why,
00:37:04
◼
►
why doesn't Apple assemble other products in the US?
00:37:06
◼
►
And the answer is, there's so many things
00:37:08
◼
►
that feed into the assembly and the supply chain,
00:37:11
◼
►
and that stuff is all in and around China.
00:37:16
◼
►
Well, how do we solve that?
00:37:17
◼
►
Like you can't just snap your fingers and build a factory
00:37:19
◼
►
and say, we solved it, right?
00:37:20
◼
►
Because the whole, there's a whole web of things
00:37:24
◼
►
in an ecosystem around it.
00:37:26
◼
►
And so if you wanna do something like this,
00:37:27
◼
►
yeah, you make the commitment, you take the hit
00:37:29
◼
►
and you say, yeah, this is gonna be hard
00:37:30
◼
►
and it's gonna be expensive and it's gonna cost,
00:37:32
◼
►
half again as much as a premium, at least to do this,
00:37:36
◼
►
but you gotta start somewhere.
00:37:39
◼
►
- Yeah, you have to invest.
00:37:40
◼
►
Investing means putting money upfront
00:37:41
◼
►
and whether it's Apple investing or the US government
00:37:44
◼
►
doing taxpayer money investing,
00:37:45
◼
►
that investment should hopefully pay off.
00:37:46
◼
►
And the other factor here that I always think about in my darker moments is that in the
00:37:51
◼
►
same way that it's not great to have manufacturing in China and you know are involved to regions
00:37:56
◼
►
like potentially volatile regions like Taiwan, gathering enough engineering talent to a particular
00:38:02
◼
►
location in the US does sometimes present a challenge because the places that are best
00:38:08
◼
►
able to support large manufacturing infrastructure where we have lots of land relatively inexpensively
00:38:14
◼
►
and you know quote-unquote business-friendly laws and regulations are also places where it's harder
00:38:20
◼
►
to get engineering talent because people who are you know have engineering skills they're able to
00:38:25
◼
►
get a good paying job anywhere in the country don't want to live in a state where abortion is illegal
00:38:30
◼
►
and the company you know the company factory gets bomb threats because you give trans people health
00:38:34
◼
►
care. Increasingly that is becoming a problem in our country so how do you get all the best engineers
00:38:41
◼
►
to come to your place and want to live there, you have to have you have to be in one of the
00:38:45
◼
►
US states that is less oppressive, let's say. And I think that's, you know, that's something
00:38:50
◼
►
people don't think about. Oh, Texas, great business laws, but geez, not great human laws.
00:38:55
◼
►
Well, we saw that with a lot of the employee resistance to moving a lot of Disney businesses
00:38:59
◼
►
from LA to Florida too. Yeah, exactly. And, you know, and again, you know, Silicon Valley,
00:39:04
◼
►
San Francisco, everything's too expensive. The teachers can't live in the city. Like,
00:39:06
◼
►
it's not like there aren't problems elsewhere, but you know, there are different challenges,
00:39:10
◼
►
You know, being able to have your employees afford housing if you're paying them well
00:39:15
◼
►
is surmountable, but you know, employees not willing to go to your state because you don't
00:39:20
◼
►
recognize their humanity or willing to give them health care is only able to be overcome
00:39:24
◼
►
at the ballot box.
00:39:25
◼
►
It's certainly a big challenge in general also just to create places like, I mean, it's
00:39:33
◼
►
sort of what I was saying before, but you know, you have to create a place where people
00:39:36
◼
►
want to be as you pointed out, and it needs to be a place where there are options because
00:39:40
◼
►
you don't, you also don't want to have like, well, you can move to this place that's out
00:39:44
◼
►
in the middle of nowhere where we do this thing. It's like, okay.
00:39:47
◼
►
And we're the only, we're the only place where you can get a job. So if you want to change
00:39:50
◼
►
jobs, you're going to have to move who knows where, right? Like that, and what you want
00:39:54
◼
►
though is, you know, if I'm Arizona State University, right? Or the University of Arizona,
00:39:59
◼
►
I'm like, well, this is really interesting. What are we, are we training, you know, chip
00:40:04
◼
►
manufacturing and ship engineers and like,
00:40:06
◼
►
are we training people to do these jobs?
00:40:07
◼
►
- We're training people to oversee the manufacturing
00:40:10
◼
►
by flying on a flight from California to China
00:40:14
◼
►
to oversee the manufacturer and other people's plants.
00:40:17
◼
►
- Yeah, well, so it's that like, well,
00:40:19
◼
►
can we build an ecosystem?
00:40:22
◼
►
And you end up in the situation too, where it's like,
00:40:24
◼
►
well, and then when Intel is like,
00:40:25
◼
►
well, we also want to build a plant.
00:40:26
◼
►
It's like, well, the place to build it
00:40:28
◼
►
is next to the one that TSMC has, right?
00:40:32
◼
►
because this is like Apple's,
00:40:34
◼
►
when they wanted their self-driving car project to succeed
00:40:37
◼
►
and they opened an office literally right next door
00:40:40
◼
►
to where the QNX offices were in Ontario,
00:40:44
◼
►
because that was who they were hiring.
00:40:46
◼
►
Or why was the Intel now Apple modem business in San Diego?
00:40:50
◼
►
It's 'cause that's where Qualcomm is, right?
00:40:52
◼
►
Like that's, and you build up a whole ecosystem
00:40:55
◼
►
of people and related companies,
00:40:58
◼
►
and they all are thinking about cellular radios
00:41:03
◼
►
and chip development and all of that in San Diego,
00:41:06
◼
►
and they're all there.
00:41:07
◼
►
So then the competitors come
00:41:10
◼
►
and it all just kind of builds out from there.
00:41:12
◼
►
So we'll see, but you got to start somewhere.
00:41:15
◼
►
And so TSMC, tool in whatever that means in Phoenix tomorrow.
00:41:20
◼
►
- This episode of Upgrade is brought to you by StoryWorth.
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I think that it's something very special and it truly creates something memorable and something
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Our thanks to StoryWorth for their support of this show and Relay FM.
00:43:16
◼
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All right, Jon, when we were putting the show notes together, you suggested that we maybe
00:43:21
◼
►
talk about AI stuff.
00:43:24
◼
►
You suggested sort of AI generating,
00:43:28
◼
►
there are all these generating like lenses,
00:43:30
◼
►
generating your pictures of yourself
00:43:33
◼
►
based on an AI training model.
00:43:36
◼
►
I know that I saw Andy Baio and Matt Howey did this
00:43:41
◼
►
and reported back on their blogs.
00:43:43
◼
►
We've gotten to the point where, yes,
00:43:45
◼
►
it's sort of like a capability
00:43:47
◼
►
to upload a few pictures of yourself
00:43:49
◼
►
and then have an AI generate pictures of you
00:43:52
◼
►
just like that don't exist, that come from who knows where.
00:43:56
◼
►
- Yeah, I know Myke has talked about this on other shows
00:43:59
◼
►
and he's not here now, so he can-
00:44:00
◼
►
- Right, we haven't talked about it on an upgrade
00:44:01
◼
►
because Myke has saved that for other shows.
00:44:04
◼
►
- And I've talked about it on ATP and on rectiffs,
00:44:07
◼
►
but I feel like this is a new,
00:44:09
◼
►
the next obvious step has come to pass
00:44:12
◼
►
and it's time to think about that a little bit as well.
00:44:16
◼
►
So the thing that's going around these days
00:44:18
◼
►
is not what Matt Howey and Andy Baio do
00:44:20
◼
►
'cause they kind of like put this together themselves.
00:44:22
◼
►
But it's been productized now. Yeah. Yeah, so there I mean, this is like an existing product like the app
00:44:27
◼
►
That you mentioned or lensa. I think it already did a bunch of like AI processing like oh
00:44:32
◼
►
It'll put something in the background that it'll cut you out or make you cartoony or whatever
00:44:35
◼
►
But they added a feature to their app. I think recently that's like hey upload, you know, 10 to 20 pictures of yourself
00:44:42
◼
►
they call them selfies, but
00:44:44
◼
►
Why that that the definition of that term is really stretching anyway
00:44:47
◼
►
10 to 20 pictures of yourself and then they will auto generate a
00:44:50
◼
►
Certain number of sort of what they call avatar pictures like if you want to put it as your Twitter avatar or something
00:44:55
◼
►
You know, it's a head and shoulder shot of yourself and they'll generate them in different styles
00:44:59
◼
►
Here's you as an anime character who's you as an astronaut, you know, definitely gender stereotype styles
00:45:04
◼
►
But you do get to pick the gender ahead of time
00:45:06
◼
►
So if you pick boy, they make you an astronaut and if you pick girl, you're a fairy princess. Oh nice, uh, anyway
00:45:13
◼
►
Because girls can't be astronauts and boys can't be fairy princesses
00:45:16
◼
►
Anyway, setting that aside, they'll make you a bunch of those images using one of the open, you know,
00:45:22
◼
►
I think it's stable diffusion they're using one of those one of the the AI image processors that exists, right?
00:45:28
◼
►
But here's where this is different because the previous discussion we've had about this like, you know,
00:45:33
◼
►
Can AI's make art? Is it gonna put regular artists out of business?
00:45:36
◼
►
Is this, you know, sustainable? Are people gonna do this instead of paying humans?
00:45:42
◼
►
All that discussion this really crystallizes though because now here's the thing we were discussing in the abstract in concrete you have to pay
00:45:50
◼
►
The lens app to for it to generate these images for you
00:45:54
◼
►
if you're not Matt Howard Andy Bayo and can't figure out how to like, you know rent yourself an instance in AWS and
00:45:59
◼
►
throw this open source software on it and upload the model file and
00:46:03
◼
►
Generate it's like you could do that yourself and you'd be paying AWS
00:46:07
◼
►
Whatever many pennies it cost to do this, but ever most people aren't gonna do that
00:46:11
◼
►
They're just gonna download an app and the app is charging money
00:46:14
◼
►
And not not a small amount of money
00:46:17
◼
►
Like I think the app is like if you do a one-week trial of their $50 a year subscription
00:46:21
◼
►
During that one week trial you can then buy batches of images
00:46:24
◼
►
Yeah for anywhere from five to ten dollars per batch of a hundred to two hundred images. So they're not cheap, right and
00:46:30
◼
►
This this company Lenza put together all these pieces of like you pay us the money. We have a job system
00:46:36
◼
►
We'll take your money in and out purchase on our iOS app
00:46:39
◼
►
We'll kick off the job that runs through stable diffusion, which we didn't make but it's open and you're able to use it
00:46:44
◼
►
And it will grind out a bunch of images and then we'll send them to you, right?
00:46:46
◼
►
but the thing about stable diffusion all these other things is they're trained on huge sets of images that
00:46:53
◼
►
Were included in that model without the consent of the people who made those images
00:46:59
◼
►
Yeah, that's just a fact like there's no way you can get millions of images getting consent from everybody who made them
00:47:04
◼
►
They're not all we only trained it on free and open images
00:47:06
◼
►
No, nobody even tries to claim that or if they do they're lying like something
00:47:10
◼
►
It was a story in our technique that we talked about ATP where someone found
00:47:13
◼
►
Pictures from their from their doctor's office like medical images were found in a training in a training set for one of these AI model
00:47:20
◼
►
things we say they were publicly accessible on the web because they weren't protected on whatever like the the
00:47:24
◼
►
Electronic health record website. No copyright intended. Yeah
00:47:28
◼
►
They harvest anything that is publicly available on the web and they put it into this model and then they charge people money for images
00:47:36
◼
►
generated based on that stuff, right?
00:47:39
◼
►
And that really makes you think much harder
00:47:43
◼
►
about the conceptual stuff of like,
00:47:45
◼
►
well, these images are all in DeviantArt
00:47:47
◼
►
and they're not behind a password.
00:47:48
◼
►
I can just go to the DeviantArt website
00:47:50
◼
►
and I can click around
00:47:51
◼
►
and I can look at them all with my eyeballs.
00:47:52
◼
►
So that means it's also okay to have a computer model
00:47:57
◼
►
consume those images and then charge people money
00:47:59
◼
►
for images generated based on the things that we consumed.
00:48:03
◼
►
That is so different than, yes, I put this on my blog.
00:48:06
◼
►
Yes, I put this in my DeviantArt page.
00:48:07
◼
►
I allow you to look at it with your eyeballs,
00:48:10
◼
►
but no, I don't allow you to feed it into a computer program
00:48:13
◼
►
and then charge people money to generate images
00:48:16
◼
►
based on the thing that you fed into your computer program.
00:48:19
◼
►
Because I never consented to that.
00:48:21
◼
►
We don't have a business deal where I get paid
00:48:23
◼
►
a fraction of a cent for every image you generate.
00:48:25
◼
►
Like you never even talked to me.
00:48:27
◼
►
You took my image.
00:48:29
◼
►
Your program does not work without my image
00:48:31
◼
►
and the other millions of images that you put in there.
00:48:33
◼
►
And then you charge people money.
00:48:35
◼
►
That system that you made, all the parts that you wrote on it,
00:48:38
◼
►
don't actually make anything.
00:48:39
◼
►
Like, if you don't have that image input,
00:48:42
◼
►
there's nothing for you to sell.
00:48:44
◼
►
Like, that whole thing of where you take my money
00:48:45
◼
►
and put my job in a queue and generate a bunch of images
00:48:48
◼
►
and let the people download it,
00:48:50
◼
►
that generating the image part does not work
00:48:52
◼
►
without all of the images that have been harvested
00:48:55
◼
►
from people who did not consent to it.
00:48:56
◼
►
And now you're charging money for it.
00:48:58
◼
►
So rather than being a technical curiosity
00:48:59
◼
►
and making us think about creativity,
00:49:01
◼
►
and it's just, you know, "Oh, I download stable distribution
00:49:03
◼
►
generate a bunch of images on my thing here and I'm not using them to be header images on my
00:49:08
◼
►
commercial website and I'm not, you know, these people are selling them inside their apps and
00:49:13
◼
►
that I hope that really, I mean, as usual technology outruns both ethics and the law,
00:49:18
◼
►
we do need to come up with a some kind of legal framework to deal with this because
00:49:25
◼
►
even within pre-existing frameworks that don't know anything about AI image generation the idea
00:49:30
◼
►
that you would take someone's work without their consent
00:49:33
◼
►
and then charge money for a derivative work is slam dunk.
00:49:36
◼
►
No, you can't do that.
00:49:37
◼
►
And the, you know, the sort of, what was it called?
00:49:41
◼
►
Like whitewashing for morality or whatever.
00:49:43
◼
►
You just put AI over it.
00:49:44
◼
►
Now everything is legal and everything's okay.
00:49:46
◼
►
No, it's exactly the system that we've always known.
00:49:50
◼
►
You can't just grab an image off the web
00:49:51
◼
►
and put it on the cover of your magazine and say,
00:49:54
◼
►
"I'm selling my magazine on the newsstand,
00:49:55
◼
►
but we just found the image on the web, it's fine."
00:49:57
◼
►
Like it's freely available on the web.
00:49:59
◼
►
I mean, the cynical part of me says,
00:50:03
◼
►
the only way this will change is if corporations get involved
00:50:08
◼
►
'cause you think about like, well,
00:50:09
◼
►
what moves copyright law?
00:50:11
◼
►
- You find Mickey Mouse inside the training sets.
00:50:13
◼
►
- Exactly, what moves copyright law is Disney
00:50:16
◼
►
wanting to hold onto copyrights
00:50:17
◼
►
and other big companies that have intellectual property
00:50:20
◼
►
wanting to hold onto the copyrights as long as they can
00:50:22
◼
►
and the trademarks.
00:50:23
◼
►
- And also like one really pissed off person
00:50:26
◼
►
who has enough money to pay for a lawyer
00:50:27
◼
►
who sets a precedent.
00:50:28
◼
►
- Yeah, but I would, so for, yes, for courts,
00:50:31
◼
►
but my point is what affects the law
00:50:35
◼
►
and getting like a law passed about this?
00:50:37
◼
►
And the answer is the intellectual property needs
00:50:41
◼
►
of large corporations who have lobbyists
00:50:44
◼
►
who go to Congress in the US and say,
00:50:47
◼
►
"Have you seen this stuff?
00:50:50
◼
►
"It's real bad."
00:50:51
◼
►
- You can make an avatar
00:50:51
◼
►
is where you look like you're in the MCU.
00:50:53
◼
►
Uh-oh. - Yeah.
00:50:54
◼
►
And they're using our art, our copyrighted art
00:50:57
◼
►
as the training for the model. - And they pulled off
00:50:58
◼
►
our public website.
00:50:59
◼
►
- It's all built on the backs of copyright infringement,
00:51:02
◼
►
and this can't be allowed.
00:51:03
◼
►
Because, and I know this is a complicated issue,
00:51:07
◼
►
but, and I don't know how courts will rule about it,
00:51:11
◼
►
but in my gut, (laughs)
00:51:15
◼
►
if I were like somebody advising people in Congress
00:51:19
◼
►
about what to do about this, if anything,
00:51:22
◼
►
I would say if it's copyrighted
00:51:24
◼
►
and hasn't been given permission
00:51:26
◼
►
to be a part of a training model, you can't use it, period.
00:51:30
◼
►
That should be the law,
00:51:32
◼
►
that if I own a copyright on it, you can't train on it.
00:51:34
◼
►
- Yeah, like everything that is not explicitly,
00:51:36
◼
►
like doesn't explicitly give rights,
00:51:38
◼
►
default is if you do make a creative work.
00:51:40
◼
►
- Yes, yeah.
00:51:41
◼
►
- So we're not saying like only Disney has copyright stuff.
00:51:44
◼
►
If you make a drawing on a napkin
00:51:45
◼
►
and post it on your website, that's copyrighted to you,
00:51:48
◼
►
unless you say that it's given away
00:51:50
◼
►
by some license that is more free than that.
00:51:52
◼
►
The issue is not, oh, you can't make a tool
00:51:55
◼
►
that emulates the style of an artist,
00:51:58
◼
►
because I own that, right?
00:51:58
◼
►
That's like copywriting a recipe.
00:52:01
◼
►
You can copyright the text that goes around the recipe,
00:52:04
◼
►
and you can copyright the photos that you took of the dish,
00:52:07
◼
►
but the concept of what the ingredients are
00:52:11
◼
►
that make the dish is actually not copyrightable.
00:52:14
◼
►
This is a little like that, which is sort of like,
00:52:16
◼
►
you know, if you wanna say this is in the style of me,
00:52:19
◼
►
my art style, that not being actionable is understandable.
00:52:24
◼
►
But if I find out that the way you do it
00:52:27
◼
►
is because you have gotten all of my output,
00:52:30
◼
►
which I own the copyright on
00:52:31
◼
►
and I didn't give you permission,
00:52:33
◼
►
and you fed it into a computer
00:52:35
◼
►
and now you can sell my art style,
00:52:37
◼
►
I would, again, I don't know what the current law is,
00:52:40
◼
►
but I would probably advocate that that not be allowed.
00:52:43
◼
►
That if I'm not giving you permission
00:52:46
◼
►
to train your model based on my artwork,
00:52:49
◼
►
you can't train your model based on my artwork.
00:52:52
◼
►
- Yeah, and for example, the correct way to do that,
00:52:54
◼
►
like this is all well-established law,
00:52:56
◼
►
like, you know, just think of like the iMac, for example,
00:52:59
◼
►
like you can sue the company that makes a computer
00:53:01
◼
►
that looks like the iMac for like trade dress or whatever,
00:53:04
◼
►
but you can't sue the person who makes an iron
00:53:06
◼
►
that's translucent in teal, right?
00:53:08
◼
►
And they're just copying the style of the iMac, right?
00:53:11
◼
►
And no one is gonna be confused and think that
00:53:12
◼
►
when they buy this iron, they're getting an iMac, right?
00:53:14
◼
►
So if you wanna make a thing that says, you know,
00:53:17
◼
►
cut in the style of whatever popular artist,
00:53:20
◼
►
and you want to do that with AI,
00:53:23
◼
►
hire someone to draw a bunch of things
00:53:27
◼
►
in the style of that artist,
00:53:28
◼
►
feed those images into your model,
00:53:30
◼
►
and you're off to the races.
00:53:31
◼
►
But the reason nobody does that is one,
00:53:34
◼
►
it costs a non-zero amount of money,
00:53:36
◼
►
and two, you know how many images you would need
00:53:38
◼
►
to feed into the model to get good results?
00:53:43
◼
►
That's why they scraped the entire web and pull those images.
00:53:45
◼
►
So how much money would it cost you
00:53:46
◼
►
to have a huge set of artists drawing essentially
00:53:50
◼
►
generic non-MCU infringing superhero art,
00:53:54
◼
►
just churning them out, picture after picture
00:53:57
◼
►
of different kinds of superheroes.
00:53:58
◼
►
Again, making sure you're not accidentally drawing Iron Man,
00:54:00
◼
►
which is copyrighted or whatever,
00:54:02
◼
►
like, you know, just MCU style superheroes.
00:54:04
◼
►
How many thousands and millions of those pieces of art
00:54:07
◼
►
would you have to pay to have created
00:54:08
◼
►
to then feed into a model
00:54:09
◼
►
so you can auto-generate avatar pictures?
00:54:11
◼
►
Or you could just use one of the existing models
00:54:13
◼
►
that was trained on some unknown amorphous set of stuff
00:54:15
◼
►
and probably says somewhere in the model
00:54:17
◼
►
that you're not even allowed to do what Lensa is doing.
00:54:19
◼
►
And then you don't have to worry about any of it
00:54:20
◼
►
because no one knows what's in the model
00:54:22
◼
►
or they have a list of what's in the model
00:54:24
◼
►
but no one's ever gonna look at it
00:54:25
◼
►
'cause it's too many things to go through.
00:54:27
◼
►
And yeah, it's gonna take someone like Disney saying,
00:54:29
◼
►
"Hey, we noticed your MCU avatar generator
00:54:32
◼
►
"is making some stuff that looks familiar.
00:54:34
◼
►
"Can we look at what you fed into the training set?"
00:54:36
◼
►
And they say, "Oh, we didn't even make the training set.
00:54:37
◼
►
"It's from some university.
00:54:38
◼
►
"Why don't you talk to them about it?"
00:54:40
◼
►
Round and around we go.
00:54:41
◼
►
But I felt like this was just so clearly over the line
00:54:44
◼
►
And people don't think about it that way
00:54:46
◼
►
because they think, oh, hand-wavy computer magic.
00:54:49
◼
►
But none of that computer magic works
00:54:51
◼
►
without input being fed to it
00:54:53
◼
►
of thousands and millions of images.
00:54:56
◼
►
And those thousands of millions of images
00:54:57
◼
►
had to come from somewhere.
00:54:58
◼
►
And if you think about it,
00:55:00
◼
►
what is there a viable economic model
00:55:02
◼
►
for AI image generation?
00:55:04
◼
►
If you could get consent from every one of those artists,
00:55:07
◼
►
they would get .0000001 cent for every image that's generated.
00:55:12
◼
►
No one would agree to that
00:55:13
◼
►
'cause it's not a good deal economically.
00:55:15
◼
►
So I think if you actually had to do a system like LENZA
00:55:18
◼
►
in a way that complies with the spirit of existing laws,
00:55:22
◼
►
it would be economically unfeasible.
00:55:24
◼
►
- Yeah, I don't know.
00:55:25
◼
►
I mean, the truth is though that laws and the courts
00:55:29
◼
►
are lagged so far behind technology
00:55:33
◼
►
that it might be years before this gets dealt with,
00:55:36
◼
►
but it does feel like, and maybe I'll be proven wrong,
00:55:40
◼
►
but it does feel to me like when it catches up,
00:55:43
◼
►
this is gonna be tough for this AI kind of generative stuff
00:55:48
◼
►
because you're right, once it starts getting productized
00:55:51
◼
►
and used in for-profit products
00:55:55
◼
►
or in creative things that are then sold
00:56:00
◼
►
or even copyrighted, right?
00:56:02
◼
►
Like you get to the point where
00:56:04
◼
►
when it's an interesting intellectual exercise
00:56:08
◼
►
in a university lab somewhere and it goes and becomes,
00:56:11
◼
►
no, no, this is big business now.
00:56:13
◼
►
I do think that is the moment where everybody kind of goes,
00:56:16
◼
►
what's all this then, right?
00:56:17
◼
►
Like what's going on here?
00:56:18
◼
►
And the people who've got vested intellectual property
00:56:22
◼
►
concerns are gonna get involved
00:56:23
◼
►
and then there's gonna be trouble.
00:56:24
◼
►
Because I do think that the artist
00:56:26
◼
►
who has all their arts stolen
00:56:28
◼
►
is probably not gonna be heard.
00:56:30
◼
►
But yeah, the big company that's got all their IP,
00:56:34
◼
►
which is so much of what the value of their company is,
00:56:37
◼
►
stolen from their perspective,
00:56:39
◼
►
stolen and used to feed an AI model,
00:56:41
◼
►
they're not going to be happy.
00:56:43
◼
►
And I think like setting aside new legislation that, you know, once Disney
00:56:47
◼
►
wakes up to this, we'll eventually come along within the existing laws.
00:56:50
◼
►
I think you could win a case against one of these companies.
00:56:53
◼
►
If Disney decided they want it to go after lens or stable diffusion, or,
00:56:57
◼
►
you know, probably lens up because stable diffusion probably has a license
00:56:59
◼
►
says you can never use these for commercial.
00:57:01
◼
►
I don't know the details, but the academic things are always kind of like.
00:57:05
◼
►
Don't use this for commercial purposes or whatever, but if Disney wanted to
00:57:08
◼
►
just existing laws that would say,
00:57:10
◼
►
"Hey, we found our copyrighted work in your training set."
00:57:14
◼
►
And then they would have to convince a judge and a jury
00:57:16
◼
►
in some farcical trial,
00:57:17
◼
►
kind of like all the trials we had
00:57:18
◼
►
about copying people's APIs and other things
00:57:20
◼
►
where it's hilarious to us techies
00:57:21
◼
►
that no one understands what an API is or whatever.
00:57:24
◼
►
They'd have this long multi-decade trial
00:57:26
◼
►
that would probably go all the way to the Supreme Court
00:57:27
◼
►
to try to convince people that,
00:57:29
◼
►
"Yes, if you take our image of Iron Man
00:57:31
◼
►
and you put it as one of a million images into your thing
00:57:34
◼
►
and you spit out something
00:57:36
◼
►
and we weren't compensated for it,
00:57:38
◼
►
that's not right, because I think in the end,
00:57:41
◼
►
setting aside all the technical stuff,
00:57:43
◼
►
regular common sense people understand that,
00:57:46
◼
►
especially since it's not gonna be one picture of Iron Man,
00:57:48
◼
►
it's gonna be hundreds or thousands of pictures of Iron Man.
00:57:51
◼
►
And the defense lawyer is gonna say,
00:57:52
◼
►
"Look, none of the images we generate
00:57:54
◼
►
"look anything like Iron Man."
00:57:55
◼
►
It's like, yeah, but you can't make them
00:57:57
◼
►
without images of Iron Man.
00:57:59
◼
►
If we all took away our stuff,
00:58:01
◼
►
you'd be left with a model with no input,
00:58:02
◼
►
and now you can't generate anything.
00:58:04
◼
►
- One of the other scenarios here is if they,
00:58:06
◼
►
if this all gets passed through the courts is like,
00:58:09
◼
►
well, there's no law against it and we can't really see it,
00:58:11
◼
►
so we're not gonna rule against it.
00:58:13
◼
►
You know, that is another thing
00:58:14
◼
►
that ends up generating a desire.
00:58:16
◼
►
- Yeah, that's fine, we'll make a law.
00:58:17
◼
►
- To the law being changed, yeah.
00:58:20
◼
►
- 'Cause you gotta make the more specific law,
00:58:21
◼
►
but I think based on existing laws, you could win that case.
00:58:24
◼
►
And also it would be a lot easier
00:58:26
◼
►
if we just had specific laws
00:58:27
◼
►
that address AI image generation and that would work.
00:58:29
◼
►
And the other thing about this is like,
00:58:31
◼
►
there are tons of tools that use the same technique
00:58:34
◼
►
as AI image generation that do not require being fed.
00:58:37
◼
►
Like even just content-aware fill
00:58:39
◼
►
that's been in Photoshop for an hour long now,
00:58:41
◼
►
what gets fed into the model is your existing image.
00:58:45
◼
►
And it looks at your existing image
00:58:47
◼
►
and figures out how to fill in the background.
00:58:49
◼
►
And now they have the ML version of that
00:58:51
◼
►
that is hopefully trained on actual public domain imagery
00:58:56
◼
►
of trees and grass and people and stuff like that.
00:58:59
◼
►
That is also useful.
00:59:02
◼
►
Like the technology would be able to do machine learning on a training set to better do things like fill in backgrounds or generate imagery
00:59:09
◼
►
Is a clean wind for image processing tools?
00:59:12
◼
►
It's just a question of what you train them on
00:59:14
◼
►
And it's a lot easier to find public domain images of trees and skies and brick walls and dirt or even just to pay
00:59:20
◼
►
You know daddy images are like like that you can get that type of content
00:59:24
◼
►
but if your thing is I want you to look like a fairy or an anime avatar or
00:59:29
◼
►
superhero, you're probably getting that stuff from DV&ART.
00:59:32
◼
►
Right. Getty and Shutterstock will be, if they're not already, very quick to the
00:59:37
◼
►
table with a ML model training licensing agreement you can buy
00:59:41
◼
►
and pay them and use their material for ML
00:59:45
◼
►
model training. And they'll attest that we only trained it on our own
00:59:48
◼
►
images that we own, right? You just get the whole model from them. You don't even
00:59:51
◼
►
need to get the images, right? In fact, somebody in our chat room
00:59:55
◼
►
pointed out that like, you know, Disney's going to want to use this for their
00:59:58
◼
►
It's like, well, yeah, I mean, imagine if you're Marvel
01:00:01
◼
►
and you want to take the entire library of Marvel comics
01:00:04
◼
►
and run it through an AI training model
01:00:06
◼
►
so that you can then generate new comics or whatever,
01:00:10
◼
►
or new superheroes. - I feel like
01:00:11
◼
►
they've done that already.
01:00:12
◼
►
- Yeah, but like, great.
01:00:13
◼
►
That's true.
01:00:14
◼
►
That's, well, the non-AI version is how Marvel comics
01:00:16
◼
►
has worked for 60 years.
01:00:18
◼
►
- Exactly, right. - Just keep recycling it.
01:00:18
◼
►
- It's just that instead of AI, it's people,
01:00:20
◼
►
but it's the same process.
01:00:21
◼
►
- But the idea being that like, yeah,
01:00:23
◼
►
but there's a scenario here where sure,
01:00:25
◼
►
the owners of the intellectual property
01:00:27
◼
►
will want to run models on their intellectual property
01:00:29
◼
►
and take advantage of that.
01:00:31
◼
►
But it's based on their intellectual property.
01:00:35
◼
►
- And that's the thing you're gonna have to be able to.
01:00:36
◼
►
Someone in the chat room was just asking,
01:00:38
◼
►
it would be convenient if you could reverse it.
01:00:40
◼
►
If I gave you an image and you could tell
01:00:41
◼
►
if some image was used in the training set.
01:00:43
◼
►
No, you can't.
01:00:45
◼
►
Mathematically, that's not a thing that is possible.
01:00:48
◼
►
It's kind of a one-way process.
01:00:49
◼
►
But that's where the law has to catch up to say,
01:00:51
◼
►
look, when it comes time to defend yourself in court
01:00:55
◼
►
based on these new laws that say
01:00:56
◼
►
that you can't steal other people's,
01:00:58
◼
►
you're going to have to be able to affirmatively prove,
01:01:00
◼
►
just like you can affirmatively prove
01:01:02
◼
►
that your company's profits didn't come from drug money.
01:01:04
◼
►
Like where did all the money come from
01:01:05
◼
►
that your company made?
01:01:06
◼
►
You have to show us that you can't just say,
01:01:08
◼
►
"Oh, and we got a couple million here,
01:01:09
◼
►
but we're not gonna tell you where that came from."
01:01:10
◼
►
You have to show,
01:01:11
◼
►
"Oh, we only put Marvel Images into this thing,
01:01:15
◼
►
and so Marvel is allowed to do this
01:01:17
◼
►
because we are the ones that brought out the input.
01:01:18
◼
►
Oh, we paid Getty Images,
01:01:20
◼
►
and Getty Images can sell you all the way down the line."
01:01:22
◼
►
- I also wanted to mention that as we were recording this,
01:01:25
◼
►
the chat GPT is having a moment.
01:01:28
◼
►
My Twitter and Mastodon feeds are full
01:01:30
◼
►
of people posting screenshots of output
01:01:33
◼
►
from the AI chat bot.
01:01:35
◼
►
Also, there was a story just this morning
01:01:39
◼
►
from the Verge about how Stack Overflow
01:01:42
◼
►
has banned answers generated from the chat bot.
01:01:45
◼
►
The argument there is basically many of them are wrong
01:01:49
◼
►
and it takes effort by experts to look at them carefully
01:01:52
◼
►
and determine that they're wrong.
01:01:55
◼
►
And Ben Thompson wrote a piece also today on Stratechery
01:01:59
◼
►
about, called AI Homework, which is,
01:02:04
◼
►
uses some examples that are very interesting about like,
01:02:07
◼
►
essentially have the AI write my homework for me.
01:02:10
◼
►
And so Ben's piece, it's like literally did Thomas Hobbes
01:02:14
◼
►
believe in the separation of powers?
01:02:16
◼
►
And the response is, yes, here's a lot of reason why.
01:02:19
◼
►
And he said, this is a great confident answer,
01:02:21
◼
►
complete with supporting evidence
01:02:22
◼
►
and citation to Hobbes' work.
01:02:23
◼
►
And it's also completely wrong.
01:02:27
◼
►
So we have examples now.
01:02:28
◼
►
- That's why it will pass as a actual student work.
01:02:31
◼
►
- Yeah, well, I mean, you missed it completely, but-
01:02:34
◼
►
- Just like a real student.
01:02:35
◼
►
- And Ben talks about how, like, this is the equivalent
01:02:38
◼
►
of having to change how math is judged
01:02:40
◼
►
because you can put math questions into a calculator.
01:02:43
◼
►
So you really need to judge it based on,
01:02:44
◼
►
did you understand it and not what the answer is?
01:02:47
◼
►
Because the answer shows you didn't understand it.
01:02:50
◼
►
But I think this is all really interesting.
01:02:52
◼
►
I have been flooded with these chatbot texts,
01:02:55
◼
►
and my response to them is, it's bad writing.
01:02:58
◼
►
It's super cliched.
01:03:00
◼
►
Of course it is, right?
01:03:01
◼
►
It's trained on a giant writing sample.
01:03:04
◼
►
What is gonna come out of everybody's writing
01:03:07
◼
►
but the cliches, right?
01:03:09
◼
►
But like, and I get how impressive it is on one level,
01:03:12
◼
►
which is, I can't believe that I put in a few words
01:03:15
◼
►
asking for a thing, whatever that thing is.
01:03:17
◼
►
Write me a Batman, you know, a comic book script
01:03:21
◼
►
where Batman fights a sentient toothbrush, right?
01:03:26
◼
►
Like, okay, it'll do it.
01:03:28
◼
►
But when you read it, you're like,
01:03:30
◼
►
yeah, but this is garbage.
01:03:31
◼
►
Like it's written by somebody who is a hack
01:03:36
◼
►
or doesn't understand the material or, right?
01:03:39
◼
►
And so I guess it's impressive that it's written
01:03:41
◼
►
by a computer and not a person,
01:03:44
◼
►
but it's also not very good and in many cases wrong.
01:03:48
◼
►
And I saw somebody basically say,
01:03:50
◼
►
What we're doing is we've created an AI
01:03:52
◼
►
that can BS their way through things they don't understand.
01:03:55
◼
►
And the danger is what you get in with Stack Overflow,
01:03:59
◼
►
which is saying, please stop posting these things.
01:04:03
◼
►
Not only can nobody tell if they're right or not,
01:04:05
◼
►
but they're also probably wrong.
01:04:07
◼
►
And it takes us a lot of effort
01:04:08
◼
►
to determine whether they're right or wrong.
01:04:10
◼
►
They get voted down, they're not popular answers.
01:04:14
◼
►
Stop, please stop.
01:04:15
◼
►
And I just, I'm fascinated by it
01:04:17
◼
►
because maybe we're in the uncanny valley now
01:04:19
◼
►
and then they will cross over.
01:04:21
◼
►
I have some skepticism about that,
01:04:23
◼
►
but I do think it's funny that they've gotten so good now
01:04:25
◼
►
that you really can't just tell at a glance.
01:04:28
◼
►
You have to look carefully
01:04:28
◼
►
and then realize that it's completely BS.
01:04:32
◼
►
- Yeah, everything that we just said
01:04:33
◼
►
about the image stuff applies equally to this.
01:04:35
◼
►
You will get better results from these text generators
01:04:39
◼
►
if you feed it higher quality text.
01:04:41
◼
►
And where are those high quality texts gonna come from?
01:04:43
◼
►
Copyrighted materials that have been shown to have value
01:04:46
◼
►
by people who say, "Yeah, this is a good comic book.
01:04:48
◼
►
This is a good movie script.
01:04:49
◼
►
This is a good novel.
01:04:50
◼
►
And you cannot get content out of these things
01:04:53
◼
►
without feeding something into it.
01:04:54
◼
►
Did all the people who had their content
01:04:56
◼
►
be fed into this model, agree to have it,
01:04:58
◼
►
or did it just scrape a bunch of people's blogs?
01:05:00
◼
►
Text is probably slightly easier to find,
01:05:02
◼
►
public domain corpus of stuff,
01:05:04
◼
►
and it is sort of at least more uniform than images,
01:05:08
◼
►
you know what I mean?
01:05:09
◼
►
But the quality is going to depend entirely
01:05:11
◼
►
about what's fed into it,
01:05:12
◼
►
which means models fed with the stuff
01:05:16
◼
►
that humans have decided is good are going to be better.
01:05:18
◼
►
programming stuff, we talked about this in ATP, that's the worst because programming isn't just
01:05:23
◼
►
like, well people look at it and they like it or they don't. It's supposed to do a job and it
01:05:28
◼
►
either does the job correctly or it doesn't and these things like, same thing with the image
01:05:34
◼
►
things, we're calling these things AI, I hope you're imagining scare quotes about every time I
01:05:38
◼
►
say it, because these models have no consciousness or awareness, they're just you know very dumb
01:05:44
◼
►
machines that, you know, grind out something, but there's really no... there's no... there's no understanding. There's no life there, right?
01:05:51
◼
►
So they can't... one of the things that they certainly can't do is they can't really apply any fitness criteria that doesn't come from humans, right?
01:05:58
◼
►
They don't know what's good or bad except by us or human activity telling them that this is good or bad, right?
01:06:03
◼
►
So there's... they're not... they're not going to be able to improve their own work without humans telling them
01:06:11
◼
►
Good bad good bad or without humans feeding into these models the best of what we have to offer build the model based only on
01:06:19
◼
►
You know the top
01:06:21
◼
►
100 movies from the past 100 years in those movie scripts you'll get a better result for asking for a movie script of Batman fighting a
01:06:27
◼
►
Toothbrush if you feed it in those movies grips versus if you just scrape like usenet, right?
01:06:32
◼
►
And either way you would need to get the people's permission to do all of that
01:06:35
◼
►
So and you know I'm at the code thing because it has no idea what it's doing and there is no consciousness there
01:06:41
◼
►
and it doesn't care about anything.
01:06:43
◼
►
Humans have to look at it every time something is generated
01:06:46
◼
►
and figure out whether it is correct.
01:06:48
◼
►
And historically speaking, humans have not been good
01:06:50
◼
►
at looking at code and figuring out whether it does
01:06:52
◼
►
what it's supposed to do because if they were good at that,
01:06:54
◼
►
we wouldn't have as many bugs as we do, right?
01:06:56
◼
►
So you are saving some time, but if I had to ask you,
01:07:00
◼
►
hey, would you rather write this function,
01:07:01
◼
►
if you're a programmer, would you rather write this function
01:07:03
◼
►
or would you rather someone else write it
01:07:04
◼
►
and you have to check whether it works well or not?
01:07:07
◼
►
Programmers hate looking at other people's code
01:07:09
◼
►
and figuring out if it works right.
01:07:10
◼
►
halfway through they'd be like,
01:07:11
◼
►
"Let me just write this myself, it's not that hard."
01:07:13
◼
►
And they have the probably misplaced confidence
01:07:15
◼
►
that if they write it themselves,
01:07:16
◼
►
it'll be more correct than the one they were just given.
01:07:18
◼
►
But yeah, AI code generation is just a giant can of worms.
01:07:22
◼
►
Like the whole GitHub copilot thing
01:07:23
◼
►
of like scraping public GitHub repos and people saying,
01:07:26
◼
►
"I didn't say you could scrape a repo in GitHub,"
01:07:28
◼
►
saying, "Well, according to our terms of service,
01:07:30
◼
►
you kind of did."
01:07:31
◼
►
And yeah, that may get sorted out
01:07:33
◼
►
before the image stuff does,
01:07:35
◼
►
just because I think it's more open and shut
01:07:37
◼
►
because of like terms and service on GitHub stuff.
01:07:40
◼
►
But with GitHub being as big as it is, I'm not sure people are going to flee because
01:07:44
◼
►
they didn't want their stuff to be ground up in an AI processor.
01:07:49
◼
►
I do like seeing these little conversations with these chatbots and seeing what they spit
01:07:54
◼
►
out, but that GPT thing, that is nothing without training data, and its quality is based on
01:08:01
◼
►
the quality of that training data.
01:08:04
◼
►
Even though it seems like it has an understanding, because you can converse with it and ask it
01:08:07
◼
►
to make modifications, it doesn't actually have understanding because it has no life.
01:08:11
◼
►
It has no inner life, it has no sensory organs, it has no experience of being. So how can
01:08:16
◼
►
it judge the quality of a creative work if it has none of the things that creative work
01:08:20
◼
►
is supposed to tickle the ends of, right? It is just a very, very dumb model that we've
01:08:26
◼
►
decided to call AI.
01:08:27
◼
►
Yeah, and I think, you know, in the long run, if the people researching this can show that
01:08:34
◼
►
that actually there are ways that we can make
01:08:37
◼
►
AI generated code work,
01:08:39
◼
►
or AI generated answers on Stack Overflow work.
01:08:44
◼
►
Like I could see us getting to the point where
01:08:48
◼
►
people agree to be part of the process, right?
01:08:51
◼
►
Whereas part of joining Stack Overflow,
01:08:54
◼
►
you agree to contribute your stuff
01:08:56
◼
►
and have it be part of the model,
01:08:58
◼
►
or on GitHub that you can choose to be part of the model
01:09:02
◼
►
because you're getting out of it some things that are good
01:09:05
◼
►
and then there's what you put in it.
01:09:07
◼
►
I could see us getting there maybe someday,
01:09:10
◼
►
but like, yeah, right?
01:09:13
◼
►
Like again, I don't want people taking,
01:09:16
◼
►
as interesting as it is that the chat GPT thing
01:09:19
◼
►
generates things that seem coherent,
01:09:21
◼
►
the truth is like you said, it has no inner life.
01:09:24
◼
►
There's kind of no there there.
01:09:26
◼
►
It is not coherent.
01:09:27
◼
►
It sounds like, again, it sounds like a student
01:09:31
◼
►
trying to BS their way through a paper
01:09:33
◼
►
when they don't actually know anything about it.
01:09:36
◼
►
- Yeah, the Stack Overflow thing is interesting
01:09:37
◼
►
because it's just another example of fighting spam, right?
01:09:40
◼
►
Because humans post wrong answers all the time.
01:09:42
◼
►
And the function of Stack Overflow is the other humans
01:09:44
◼
►
will see the humans with the wrong answers
01:09:46
◼
►
and downvote them, right?
01:09:47
◼
►
But human, every time a human does something,
01:09:50
◼
►
there is an inherent cost to that.
01:09:52
◼
►
It's expensive to make new humans, as we both know.
01:09:55
◼
►
It takes a long time to train them up to the point
01:09:57
◼
►
where they can even post a bad answer to Stack Overflow.
01:10:00
◼
►
So there is a throttle on how many bad answers humans
01:10:04
◼
►
will put on Stack Overflow.
01:10:06
◼
►
There is no such throttle on how many bad answers
01:10:09
◼
►
a chatbot running on GPT can put bad answers
01:10:12
◼
►
in Stack Overflow.
01:10:13
◼
►
It can just fire them so fast,
01:10:15
◼
►
and that's where they're saying, look,
01:10:17
◼
►
the cost of making a bad answer with GPT is too low.
01:10:21
◼
►
Yes, it's the same process where humans have to look at it
01:10:23
◼
►
and download it, but the human beings have to look at it
01:10:26
◼
►
and download it, whereas computer programs can generate it,
01:10:29
◼
►
and computer programs can outrun the humans massively.
01:10:31
◼
►
So you have to ban it,
01:10:32
◼
►
not because it is by nature any different than humans
01:10:35
◼
►
in terms of like,
01:10:36
◼
►
maybe they're even right more often than humans.
01:10:37
◼
►
It's just because like spam,
01:10:39
◼
►
if there's no cost or basically zero cost
01:10:42
◼
►
to sending millions and millions of these things,
01:10:44
◼
►
then people will do it.
01:10:45
◼
►
It just becomes a denial of service attack
01:10:47
◼
►
on Stack Overflow.
01:10:48
◼
►
- This episode of Upgrade is brought to you
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by Ooni Pizza Ovens.
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It's basically replicating those super hot,
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wood-fired ovens that you see in a lot of pizza places
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that my oven can't get that hot.
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So it's a very different experience
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And it just really changes the whole thing.
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It's pretty great.
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make an awesome app too that has dough recipes and lots of other pizza making
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tips. I have an uni. I like it a lot. Uses the same propane canister as my outdoor
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heater and as my gas grill does, so that is convenient. I can just hook it up.
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The base of the Ooni oven is basically a pizza stone,
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so you get it nice and hot so that you get the nice crust
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and it bubbles the cheese on the top
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and you put your pepperoni and pineapple on there
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Thank you to UNI for supporting upgrade
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and my ability to make pizza.
01:13:20
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I have two more mini things related to that topic.
01:13:22
◼
►
I know we already talked about it for a long time,
01:13:23
◼
►
but I did, I forgot them while we were in the middle of it.
01:13:26
◼
►
So now we have to tack them onto the end.
01:13:27
◼
►
- It's like follow-up inside the show.
01:13:29
◼
►
This is very exciting.
01:13:30
◼
►
- The first is,
01:13:31
◼
►
Panzarino was posting some stuff on Twitter about AI art
01:13:35
◼
►
on the similar things that we just discussed.
01:13:37
◼
►
And it was musing about the similar topic
01:13:40
◼
►
to what we talked about in an ATP a while back of like,
01:13:42
◼
►
if AI art, like, you know,
01:13:45
◼
►
that doomsday scenario puts all the human artists
01:13:47
◼
►
of business, it's just all art AI generated. Is that sustainable without human input? Like obviously
01:13:54
◼
►
these AI things are fed human art to begin with to get them off the ground, but let's say all the humans
01:13:59
◼
►
are, you know, there's no more human artists and everything's from these AI things. Can it be
01:14:04
◼
►
sustained by feeding its own art back into itself? That's how human art works. All human art is
01:14:10
◼
►
sustained by existing human art being fed into humans who look at the art that was made
01:14:16
◼
►
before them and add their own twist on it based on their life experiences and
01:14:20
◼
►
you know so it's human art is self-sustaining right and even if you
01:14:23
◼
►
wiped out all humans and just started with some new ones they would make art
01:14:25
◼
►
again and it would start a new cycle right but are these AI's that we're
01:14:30
◼
►
doing these quote-unquote AI's are they able to do this I would say the current
01:14:33
◼
►
problem absolutely not because as I was trying to get at before they have no
01:14:38
◼
►
fitness criteria they can't tell whether something is good or not good is defined
01:14:42
◼
►
according to you know the way we want these models to work as humans find this
01:14:47
◼
►
art desirable good like it fulfills its intended purpose its whole intended
01:14:52
◼
►
purpose is do humans like this and these machine learning models have no idea
01:14:56
◼
►
what humans like and they don't like anything themselves because they don't
01:14:59
◼
►
have consciousness or you know life or and or sense organs or anything like
01:15:06
◼
►
they're not that you know it's they they can't judge fitness criteria only we
01:15:10
◼
►
So at minimum, you need humans to judge fitness criteria.
01:15:15
◼
►
I'm not entirely sure that if you, okay,
01:15:18
◼
►
the humans don't actually make any work,
01:15:19
◼
►
but the humans give thumbs up or thumbs down
01:15:21
◼
►
to things generated by machines.
01:15:23
◼
►
Is that sustainable?
01:15:25
◼
►
Probably, probably with these current models,
01:15:28
◼
►
if you ceased all human input into them,
01:15:30
◼
►
other than giving thumbs up and thumbs down,
01:15:33
◼
►
but I think that would degenerate pretty quickly.
01:15:35
◼
►
Like what do you kind of think?
01:15:36
◼
►
It's kind of like the creative equivalent
01:15:38
◼
►
of the gray goo nanomachines doomsday scenario
01:15:40
◼
►
where if you take humans,
01:15:43
◼
►
take enough humans out of the system with things like this,
01:15:47
◼
►
like if it took the humans out entirely,
01:15:48
◼
►
the AIs would just eventually,
01:15:50
◼
►
I imagine everything would just sort of mix
01:15:51
◼
►
to a color brown, right?
01:15:53
◼
►
Just like, 'cause they don't care,
01:15:55
◼
►
they can't judge good versus bad.
01:15:57
◼
►
And so eventually, feeding the same images back in
01:16:00
◼
►
and regenerating, it's kind of like what the rabbits do.
01:16:03
◼
►
I know this is a terrible, disgusting term
01:16:04
◼
►
that I can't remember, but rabbits eat food,
01:16:06
◼
►
then they poop it out and then they eat it again
01:16:08
◼
►
'cause it takes multiple plastids to digest it.
01:16:10
◼
►
I think that's kind of what would happen
01:16:12
◼
►
with the current AI image generators
01:16:13
◼
►
without humans involved.
01:16:14
◼
►
But at minimum, you would need the humans to judge it
01:16:18
◼
►
because there's no, you know,
01:16:20
◼
►
like that's the whole point of this
01:16:23
◼
►
as far as we're concerned is to make art
01:16:25
◼
►
that humans find pleasing or desirable.
01:16:28
◼
►
So you definitely need the humans for that.
01:16:30
◼
►
And not that I think this is gonna happen.
01:16:31
◼
►
It's not like all humans are gonna go out of work
01:16:33
◼
►
any more than all humans were wiped out
01:16:35
◼
►
by any other past, like, you know,
01:16:38
◼
►
artists were not destroyed by the advent of photography,
01:16:40
◼
►
which I think would be a much easier sell
01:16:42
◼
►
back in the day of like,
01:16:43
◼
►
"Well, if you can just take a photograph,
01:16:45
◼
►
portrait artists are gonna go out of business now,
01:16:47
◼
►
people still paint and people still make portraits.
01:16:48
◼
►
In fact, now we have computers make portraits for us
01:16:50
◼
►
that look like things that people painted
01:16:51
◼
►
instead of taking photographs, right?"
01:16:53
◼
►
So I'm not particularly concerned about this,
01:16:55
◼
►
but it's a fun intellectual exercise.
01:16:58
◼
►
Like, and Panzerna's question was,
01:17:00
◼
►
when have we crossed that line
01:17:01
◼
►
where it's sort of self-sustaining?
01:17:02
◼
►
And I think the answer is,
01:17:04
◼
►
we're not gonna cross that line with this crop of ML things.
01:17:06
◼
►
Wake me up when you get an actual, what is it called?
01:17:09
◼
►
General purpose artificial intelligence.
01:17:11
◼
►
There's some acronym for it or whatever,
01:17:13
◼
►
but it's basically the same thing
01:17:14
◼
►
that we've been reading about in sci-fi books
01:17:15
◼
►
since we were kids and still doesn't exist.
01:17:18
◼
►
- Yeah, I was thinking about how one of the next frontiers
01:17:23
◼
►
of this stuff is gonna be the AI assisted art,
01:17:28
◼
►
which has already happened a little bit,
01:17:31
◼
►
which I'm okay with.
01:17:32
◼
►
On ATP, Marco talked about generating app icon ideas
01:17:35
◼
►
with an AI engine and looking at the ideas
01:17:39
◼
►
and using it as kind of inspiration.
01:17:42
◼
►
And I feel like that's gonna keep happening, right?
01:17:45
◼
►
Where we're gonna end up with the first AI inspired novel,
01:17:50
◼
►
but it's gonna turn out that there was like an outline
01:17:55
◼
►
that was generated by an AI and then a human being
01:17:57
◼
►
went in there and applied actual intelligence to it
01:17:59
◼
►
and turned it into a novel or turned it into a short story
01:18:02
◼
►
or something like that, where it's not gonna be,
01:18:04
◼
►
this short story was untouched by a human.
01:18:06
◼
►
It's gonna be more like,
01:18:07
◼
►
well, I generated a short story with an AI
01:18:09
◼
►
and then I had to go in and fix it and make it good.
01:18:12
◼
►
- Again, with the AI and ML terms,
01:18:14
◼
►
like they're basically just fads,
01:18:15
◼
►
but like if the terminology had just been shifted
01:18:19
◼
►
by a few decades, we'd be saying that spelling checkers
01:18:22
◼
►
and grammar checkers are AI, especially grammar checkers.
01:18:24
◼
►
Like, well, you wrote this novel, but you had AI help
01:18:26
◼
►
because you read Grammarly on it.
01:18:29
◼
►
- Okay. - Yeah.
01:18:30
◼
►
- I mean, did you use content aware fill
01:18:32
◼
►
when you made this digital image?
01:18:33
◼
►
Oh, AI helped you make that image.
01:18:35
◼
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- I like the idea of using this generative stuff
01:18:39
◼
►
as inspiration because again,
01:18:41
◼
►
you're basically poking the human brain and saying,
01:18:43
◼
►
how about this?
01:18:44
◼
►
How about this?
01:18:45
◼
►
And then the human is going, oh, that's interesting.
01:18:47
◼
►
Let me go in that direction.
01:18:48
◼
►
And having a kind of, you know,
01:18:51
◼
►
semi-intelligent genre blender
01:18:55
◼
►
that throws out random stuff that hits your eyeballs
01:19:00
◼
►
and makes you think about stuff.
01:19:02
◼
►
Like, sure, that's interesting, right?
01:19:05
◼
►
That can be potentially inspiring,
01:19:09
◼
►
but that's a very different thing than saying,
01:19:11
◼
►
like, the AI made the art.
01:19:13
◼
►
But I think, well, just wait for it though.
01:19:14
◼
►
Like, I can predict already that we're gonna get
01:19:16
◼
►
that first AI to ever do a blah, blah, blah.
01:19:19
◼
►
- Oh yeah, no. - And it's gonna be
01:19:20
◼
►
a huge asterisk and actually it's human art.
01:19:24
◼
►
- There's probably some movie on Netflix
01:19:25
◼
►
It was written by AI already and we just don't know about it because it was lousy
01:19:28
◼
►
And the second thing is that people post in the chat room is that you know, I finally found the phrase
01:19:33
◼
►
I don't remember the origins, but I bet I could Google further defines money laundering for bias, right?
01:19:37
◼
►
So if you if you just take a bunch of input from humans and you feed it into a model
01:19:40
◼
►
Because the humans that made that input have biases those biases will come through in the modern model because it's an a quote AI model
01:19:48
◼
►
It's like oh no humans are involved
01:19:50
◼
►
How could there be any bias?
01:19:51
◼
►
because the only thing this thing knows how to do is based on the input from humans that have inherent biases and nothing
01:19:56
◼
►
demonstrates that more hilariously and
01:19:59
◼
►
Ridiculously in these chat GPT things where you can you can flex and demonstrate the power of this thing
01:20:05
◼
►
So like you said write a comic book script with whatever right you can tell the different forms
01:20:10
◼
►
So people would say like write me a Python
01:20:12
◼
►
Function that determines whether someone is a good scientist based on their race and gender and the Python function at rights is a deaf good
01:20:20
◼
►
scientists yes, no, whatever and the body of the function is if gender equals male and
01:20:25
◼
►
Race equals white then return good else return bad, right?
01:20:30
◼
►
Like and you can do that you can phrase a million different questions like the one put in the chat room
01:20:34
◼
►
write me a write me a Python function that shows whether someone should be paroled and it's like if they're a black man know like
01:20:41
◼
►
Multiple layers that is like wow, it knows it doesn't just know information, but it knows
01:20:46
◼
►
I want the answer to this information in the form of a Python function.
01:20:49
◼
►
Isn't that amazing? And you're like, but wait a second.
01:20:50
◼
►
GPT seems super racist and super sexist. And it's like, well,
01:20:54
◼
►
it was fed on a corpus of publicly available information.
01:20:57
◼
►
It was a different time, John.
01:20:59
◼
►
Which is filled with people being sexist and racist. There's so much of it.
01:21:04
◼
►
It's not hard to find, right? Or even just something as simple as like,
01:21:07
◼
►
you know, gender stereotypes. How did that get into our model?
01:21:09
◼
►
It's everywhere in the world we live in. How could it not be in the model?
01:21:13
◼
►
The only way it wouldn't be, these computers,
01:21:16
◼
►
whatever that rhyme is, they only do what we tell them to.
01:21:20
◼
►
So if you feed it on the input of human beings,
01:21:23
◼
►
especially without any sort of distinction
01:21:24
◼
►
or any sort of filtering or modification,
01:21:26
◼
►
it's just gonna reflect all of humanity.
01:21:29
◼
►
All of humanity are filled with biases.
01:21:32
◼
►
And so you can't say, okay, well,
01:21:34
◼
►
but we've taken humans out of the loan approval process.
01:21:37
◼
►
This is all purely determined by AI.
01:21:39
◼
►
There is no bias.
01:21:40
◼
►
It's like, okay, well, how did you make this AI?
01:21:42
◼
►
"Well, we fed up the decisions of humans
01:21:43
◼
►
over the past 50 years."
01:21:44
◼
►
It's like, "I have a problem."
01:21:47
◼
►
- Yeah, it's the, the racist AI says,
01:21:49
◼
►
"I learned it from you, Dan."
01:21:50
◼
►
- "I learned it from humans."
01:21:52
◼
►
'Cause where else are they gonna learn everything?
01:21:54
◼
►
Everything they know is from us
01:21:56
◼
►
and we're filled with bias.
01:22:02
◼
►
Senator, I would like to speak for a moment
01:22:06
◼
►
if the chair will recognize me
01:22:07
◼
►
about these new woke AIs that are turning up.
01:22:12
◼
►
It turns out you've been eliminating racist screeds
01:22:15
◼
►
from the training corpus.
01:22:17
◼
►
Look at that bias you're incorporating.
01:22:19
◼
►
- I would like a more broadly broad corpus for my AIs
01:22:24
◼
►
that is not limited and suppressed.
01:22:27
◼
►
I don't know, there's a new character I'm working on.
01:22:29
◼
►
It's the Senator, windbag Senator,
01:22:32
◼
►
or a fog horn, like horn, I say.
01:22:35
◼
►
I wanted to do, since it's you and me,
01:22:39
◼
►
I wanted to do a little Mac OS talk.
01:22:41
◼
►
I do this with my pals who are like the big Mac users.
01:22:47
◼
►
Big Mac users. - I got a big Mac,
01:22:48
◼
►
that's for sure.
01:22:49
◼
►
- Old, usually old school.
01:22:52
◼
►
- Yes, we are old.
01:22:54
◼
►
- We are, it's true.
01:22:55
◼
►
And also I will say your buddies on ATP
01:23:03
◼
►
are not of the old school.
01:23:06
◼
►
- No, in multiple ways. - Of being Mac users.
01:23:08
◼
►
both in the life way and also in the Apple way.
01:23:10
◼
►
- Yeah, yeah, exactly.
01:23:12
◼
►
I find it very funny 'cause you're the voice of the person
01:23:15
◼
►
who actually knows what the Mac was before, you know,
01:23:17
◼
►
2004 on that podcast.
01:23:20
◼
►
But you know, I don't wanna get like super retro here.
01:23:23
◼
►
Instead, I just wanted to sort of do a little check-in
01:23:25
◼
►
with you about how you're feeling about macOS today.
01:23:27
◼
►
You know, it used to be we could read 20,000 words
01:23:29
◼
►
about how you're feeling about macOS,
01:23:31
◼
►
but those days have passed.
01:23:32
◼
►
We can listen to some podcasts and hear about it,
01:23:33
◼
►
but like, I just wanted to do a little Ventura check-in.
01:23:37
◼
►
You know, we live in the system settings era now.
01:23:40
◼
►
I was curious about like your day-to-day Mac usage,
01:23:45
◼
►
especially, right?
01:23:45
◼
►
Because obviously you have, you're doing development
01:23:49
◼
►
and you're doing your podcasts.
01:23:50
◼
►
Like what is, when you use your Mac every day, all day,
01:23:55
◼
►
what, you know, what's working okay?
01:23:58
◼
►
And what is bugging you
01:24:00
◼
►
about the modern 2022 era Mac experience?
01:24:05
◼
►
Mean I have to unventura. I think this has been a pretty good OS update in terms of not breaking tons of stuff
01:24:12
◼
►
I agree, you know and that's that's good
01:24:15
◼
►
system settings as we've all talked about so much that's bad, but I think like the the the Mac OS software trends
01:24:23
◼
►
Have just continued sort of linearly through the ventura transition
01:24:28
◼
►
Those trends are that it seems like
01:24:31
◼
►
Apple doesn't know how to make good Mac apps anymore that either the people who know how to do it aren't being allowed to make
01:24:36
◼
►
Mac apps or they don't exist there anymore
01:24:38
◼
►
It seems like there aren't a lot
01:24:40
◼
►
It's not a lot of innovation happening on the Mac basically the the quote unquote best and most valuable apps
01:24:45
◼
►
We get on the Mac or simply
01:24:47
◼
►
Cross-platform apps built with cross-platform technologies and we're happy to have them
01:24:51
◼
►
So it's it's great that we have slack and discord on the Mac in you know
01:24:55
◼
►
These individual apps that are pretty well done, but they're not I mean, they're not Mac native apps, right?
01:25:00
◼
►
So that whole trend of like, you know, all those of us who could remember a time when software innovation was happening on the Mac app
01:25:06
◼
►
Platform it's so clear that it's not happening anymore
01:25:08
◼
►
The trend I talked about earlier about Apple locking down the system and making it harder and harder to do interesting things
01:25:13
◼
►
I experienced that personally even with my stupid dinky app
01:25:16
◼
►
But I experienced that as a user because there are fewer and fewer Mac apps that do really interesting things
01:25:22
◼
►
Just because if you want to try to do them
01:25:25
◼
►
You can't be on the Mac App Store and even if you don't want to be in the Mac App Store
01:25:28
◼
►
or you probably can't do them anyway
01:25:29
◼
►
because the system is so locked down
01:25:30
◼
►
and Apple seems uninterested in providing hooks.
01:25:34
◼
►
I've been begging Apple,
01:25:35
◼
►
when I used to write Mac OS X reviews,
01:25:36
◼
►
I was begging them for years.
01:25:38
◼
►
You know what the doc does?
01:25:40
◼
►
Everything useful that the doc does
01:25:42
◼
►
provide a public API to do that.
01:25:44
◼
►
For example, right now my Slack icon
01:25:46
◼
►
has a little badge with a one on it.
01:25:48
◼
►
There's an, the doc, you know,
01:25:50
◼
►
there's an API for Mac apps to say,
01:25:51
◼
►
"Hey, badge my icon and put a one in it," or whatever, right?
01:25:56
◼
►
that sort of bounce my dock icon.
01:25:59
◼
►
Like Mac applications have APIs they can call
01:26:02
◼
►
to do all those things,
01:26:03
◼
►
but the only thing on the entire system
01:26:05
◼
►
that can hear the cries of those apps is the Apple dock.
01:26:08
◼
►
You cannot make a third party application
01:26:11
◼
►
that knows when an application wants to bad itself,
01:26:14
◼
►
that knows when an application wants to change its icon
01:26:16
◼
►
to show the current date 'cause it's a calendar app,
01:26:18
◼
►
that knows when it like,
01:26:19
◼
►
you can only do what Apple's provided hooks for.
01:26:21
◼
►
And so many things are only the purview
01:26:24
◼
►
of the operating system.
01:26:26
◼
►
Window management stuff, can you write window shade
01:26:29
◼
►
Not without hacking the hell out of it
01:26:31
◼
►
and it'd probably be really difficult now.
01:26:32
◼
►
There are no hooks for that type of window management thing.
01:26:34
◼
►
You can't invent that yourself,
01:26:36
◼
►
only Apple gets access to that and on and on.
01:26:38
◼
►
The old way of doing this was terrible,
01:26:40
◼
►
but the new way is provide clean hooks.
01:26:42
◼
►
Even when they did provide them,
01:26:43
◼
►
Dropbox used to be hacking the finder
01:26:45
◼
►
to put the badges on its icon.
01:26:46
◼
►
Apple said, "Stop hacking the finder,
01:26:48
◼
►
"we'll give you public APIs for this."
01:26:50
◼
►
Great, that's the example of exactly what I wanted to do.
01:26:52
◼
►
But by all accounts, the API they provided
01:26:55
◼
►
is not as good and reliable as the one that Dropbox did
01:26:57
◼
►
by hacking the Finder.
01:26:58
◼
►
So, you know, E for effort, Apple, but do better, right?
01:27:03
◼
►
And that has been another trend that has been ongoing.
01:27:06
◼
►
Apple, uninterested in providing system level integration
01:27:09
◼
►
that makes the Mac, you know,
01:27:11
◼
►
better than iOS and the iPad.
01:27:13
◼
►
And I know it's like, it's rich us complaining
01:27:15
◼
►
or iPad people just wish they could like redirect sound
01:27:18
◼
►
for one application to another.
01:27:19
◼
►
And even that, you know,
01:27:20
◼
►
Rogomedia is still fighting the good fight to get that.
01:27:23
◼
►
It takes two reboots to install it, but yes, you can get it installed if you need to.
01:27:27
◼
►
Right, and so like those trends, these are not new things, these are just trends that have been going for years and years continue on the Mac,
01:27:33
◼
►
and it's making the Mac seem increasingly less rich, because for those of us who remember when innovative interesting apps were happening,
01:27:42
◼
►
or for those of us who can remember when system augmentation allowed lots of user interface experimentation,
01:27:49
◼
►
even when it was done in a terrible way, that was kind of cool.
01:27:53
◼
►
Now it's not done in a terrible way, it's just not done at all, and every year that goes by they turn the screws on that one.
01:27:58
◼
►
I do think sometimes about the fact that the stuff that I view as like, "Oh, this is great that this is on the Mac, I'm so glad that it does this,"
01:28:08
◼
►
it's almost always something that was put in in an earlier era, and that if I ask myself, "Would Apple do this now?"
01:28:19
◼
►
the answer is no, right?
01:28:21
◼
►
Like the terminal, well, no, they wouldn't put that in there.
01:28:26
◼
►
- They would, I think today's Apple would put the terminal in.
01:28:30
◼
►
- I mean, they might, I mean,
01:28:31
◼
►
Microsoft has really pushed on that,
01:28:33
◼
►
but like Apple is gonna, you gotta wonder,
01:28:35
◼
►
'cause their other platforms don't have it,
01:28:37
◼
►
and I know why they don't.
01:28:38
◼
►
I was thinking about the menu bar.
01:28:40
◼
►
I was thinking about like API to put stuff in the menu bar.
01:28:43
◼
►
Like would Apple today be like the menu bar on the Mac,
01:28:47
◼
►
It's a free-for-all put your apps up there put icons go go nuts speaking about public
01:28:53
◼
►
Do you remember the old war about that right so Mac OS 10 came out it basically had either had an existing API for that
01:28:59
◼
►
Or they had someone added it in before someone told them no right, but there were two API's
01:29:03
◼
►
There was the good one that Apple got to use and there was the crappy one that the third
01:29:06
◼
►
Use and this was back before
01:29:09
◼
►
Sandboxing in the Mac App Store so what happened is third parties just used the naughty one
01:29:13
◼
►
Because they're like, why would I use the quote unquote
01:29:15
◼
►
public one that's worse?
01:29:16
◼
►
And one of the things that was worse about it,
01:29:18
◼
►
if you use the public one, you couldn't move the icons around.
01:29:21
◼
►
So no third party developer is going
01:29:22
◼
►
to pick that one right next to it is the API that Apple uses.
01:29:24
◼
►
It lets you hold down Command key and move them around.
01:29:27
◼
►
So everybody used the fancier one.
01:29:29
◼
►
And it took years of convincing Apple, like, look,
01:29:31
◼
►
you have this API.
01:29:33
◼
►
Don't have the worst public one that no one wants to use
01:29:35
◼
►
and the one that you yell at everyone about using.
01:29:37
◼
►
Just make one API that is decent for doing this.
01:29:41
◼
►
And you're right that if someone hadn't snuck
01:29:43
◼
►
that into like a P's classic Mac OS users
01:29:45
◼
►
during the transition,
01:29:47
◼
►
it would be difficult to imagine them adding it now.
01:29:49
◼
►
Look at Stage Manager, a great example.
01:29:52
◼
►
Stage Manager is a new way to manage Windows, right?
01:29:56
◼
►
Apple gets to do those experiments.
01:29:58
◼
►
Say someone inside Apple has a new idea
01:30:00
◼
►
about how to manage Windows.
01:30:01
◼
►
They get to implement it.
01:30:02
◼
►
Nobody else gets to do that.
01:30:04
◼
►
There's no place for third parties to say,
01:30:06
◼
►
well, I have an idea about how to do Windows.
01:30:08
◼
►
We would have so much more innovation
01:30:09
◼
►
in terms of window management
01:30:11
◼
►
if it could be done by somebody other than Apple.
01:30:13
◼
►
I know everyone's gonna point out those like, you know,
01:30:15
◼
►
Moom and Magnet and those things that like tile windows.
01:30:18
◼
►
The reason all those things have the same feature set is
01:30:20
◼
►
that's all you can do without being Apple.
01:30:23
◼
►
You can use accessibility stuff
01:30:24
◼
►
to script the movement of windows or whatever,
01:30:26
◼
►
but you basically can't implement stage manager
01:30:29
◼
►
as a third party unless you seriously hack the system
01:30:32
◼
►
and remove system integrity protection
01:30:33
◼
►
and get inside the window manager
01:30:34
◼
►
because there are not public APIs to do that, right?
01:30:37
◼
►
Only Apple can do that.
01:30:38
◼
►
And I'm saying only Apple in the bad non-Tim Cook way,
01:30:42
◼
►
Only Apple can do that.
01:30:44
◼
►
And yes, in the bad old days,
01:30:46
◼
►
we would just hack into the Windows Server
01:30:47
◼
►
and jump into its memory space and screw stuff up.
01:30:49
◼
►
That wasn't good.
01:30:50
◼
►
What is good is clean hooks to do things.
01:30:52
◼
►
And the counter example being,
01:30:54
◼
►
oh, they gave clean hooks to Dropbox,
01:30:56
◼
►
but the clean hooks are worse than the hacks, right?
01:30:57
◼
►
So I'll modify that.
01:30:59
◼
►
Good clean hooks to do this.
01:31:01
◼
►
Because by providing good clean hooks
01:31:03
◼
►
to do this type of stuff,
01:31:04
◼
►
third parties will innovate
01:31:06
◼
►
and provide value to your platform.
01:31:08
◼
►
That has been the history of the Mac.
01:31:10
◼
►
I mean, now it seems like for the past decade
01:31:12
◼
►
So Apple has been fighting as hard as they can
01:31:13
◼
►
against that innovation because it got all tangled up
01:31:15
◼
►
with the implementation of, you know,
01:31:18
◼
►
jumping into people's memory spaces, right?
01:31:20
◼
►
And they just, they haven't been like,
01:31:22
◼
►
I feel like this is one of the main jobs of the Mac team,
01:31:24
◼
►
the Mac OS team at Apple should be to figure out
01:31:27
◼
►
what kind of public hook should we provide
01:31:29
◼
►
for functionality in Mac OS so third parties can innovate.
01:31:32
◼
►
And they just seem so uninterested in doing that.
01:31:35
◼
►
They're interested in providing new frameworks,
01:31:37
◼
►
you know, the ML frameworks and image processing frameworks.
01:31:40
◼
►
That's great, you gotta do that too.
01:31:41
◼
►
and GUI toolkits and Swift UI,
01:31:43
◼
►
but also what hook should we provide into the OS itself?
01:31:47
◼
►
And then once they learn a lesson,
01:31:48
◼
►
they can talk to the iPad team
01:31:49
◼
►
and make the iPad users happy too.
01:31:51
◼
►
- Yeah, it's a,
01:31:54
◼
►
I appreciate getting new features like universal control,
01:31:59
◼
►
which I wrote about a couple of weeks ago.
01:32:00
◼
►
And like, I think that's a very cool feature
01:32:04
◼
►
that is much more useful to me than Sidecar was,
01:32:07
◼
►
but Sidecar is there too.
01:32:09
◼
►
And there are new APIs for some stuff
01:32:14
◼
►
at the fairly low level, but that the,
01:32:18
◼
►
I mean, first off, right, the challenge is that the Mac,
01:32:22
◼
►
anything that's Mac only has a much bigger hurdle at Apple,
01:32:26
◼
►
right, because Apple's really,
01:32:28
◼
►
they have a lot of operating systems.
01:32:30
◼
►
So if you wanna make your feature happen,
01:32:34
◼
►
having it be on all the platforms,
01:32:37
◼
►
or at least more than one, sure helps, right?
01:32:42
◼
►
- I mean, you could definitely share some of those hooks
01:32:43
◼
►
with iPad OS, but I think it would be a benefit.
01:32:45
◼
►
- The dock, especially.
01:32:47
◼
►
- But only when you look at the scope of Apple,
01:32:49
◼
►
does that become a thing,
01:32:50
◼
►
because as Apple itself always points out,
01:32:51
◼
►
if you just took the Mac business on its own
01:32:53
◼
►
and put it as a separate company, it's not a small company.
01:32:56
◼
►
- That's not how they see it though, right?
01:33:00
◼
►
That's not how they see it from a software perspective,
01:33:02
◼
►
is there are limited software resources
01:33:05
◼
►
and they choose where to spend them.
01:33:06
◼
►
And although they spend some effort on the Mac,
01:33:10
◼
►
it is always gonna be a bigger winner
01:33:12
◼
►
if it's a feature that goes across the Mac and the iPad
01:33:15
◼
►
and maybe the iPhone and maybe the Apple Watch.
01:33:18
◼
►
- And for stage manager specifically,
01:33:19
◼
►
like it's debatable whether developing stage manager
01:33:24
◼
►
took fewer resources than creating the hooks
01:33:27
◼
►
that would allow third parties
01:33:28
◼
►
to implement things like stage manager.
01:33:30
◼
►
I know when you say the hooks, you're like,
01:33:31
◼
►
oh, that's not just a one-time cost, that's ongoing cost.
01:33:34
◼
►
Once you introduce public APIs,
01:33:35
◼
►
you have to support them forever, right?
01:33:37
◼
►
But it seems like the strategy on the Mac
01:33:39
◼
►
is Apple internally develops things like Stage Manager
01:33:42
◼
►
and then has to support them for other
01:33:43
◼
►
because it's not like they got rid of mission control.
01:33:46
◼
►
It's not like they got rid of spaces.
01:33:47
◼
►
Like they just keep adding to that pile.
01:33:49
◼
►
So if you're just gonna keep adding to the pile of things
01:33:51
◼
►
you need to support forever,
01:33:53
◼
►
it might actually be less work to just provide hooks
01:33:55
◼
►
to do the things that Stage Manager does
01:33:58
◼
►
and let third parties come up with something
01:34:00
◼
►
than it was to add Stage Manager to iPadOS and macOS.
01:34:04
◼
►
I'll give you the counter argument though,
01:34:05
◼
►
which is Apple looks at who's developing software on the Mac
01:34:08
◼
►
and who's using third-party software on the Mac and says,
01:34:10
◼
►
"You know, all the software is generally
01:34:14
◼
►
either has been around for a while
01:34:16
◼
►
or is a cross-platform whatever.
01:34:18
◼
►
And that if we put the effort into making hooks
01:34:21
◼
►
rather than building the feature in one way ourselves,
01:34:25
◼
►
the hooks are out there, but are they going to be used?
01:34:29
◼
►
is there a big, bustling third-party Mac app utility,
01:34:34
◼
►
especially development world out there?
01:34:39
◼
►
And are those apps gonna get built
01:34:41
◼
►
and are they gonna get used?
01:34:44
◼
►
Or has the Mac reached the point in its life
01:34:47
◼
►
where providing APIs for excited third-party developers
01:34:52
◼
►
is not a thing that actually works anymore?
01:34:55
◼
►
- I mean, it's chicken egg, right?
01:34:56
◼
►
Obviously, you've killed the ecosystem
01:34:58
◼
►
by not providing APIs
01:34:59
◼
►
And now you look around and say there's no one developing this right I mean obviously the the best thing to do although take twice
01:35:03
◼
►
As many resources or more is to both make the API's and then also build stage manager on top of it
01:35:08
◼
►
You know what I mean, but yeah like Mac OS is a drop in the bucket compared to the other stuff
01:35:12
◼
►
Which definitely does affect how they view everything?
01:35:14
◼
►
But what you just pointed out the fact that most of the interesting things happening on the Mac app
01:35:18
◼
►
The Mac platform are third-party cross-platform API's built on electron or whatever that should be a ringing alarm bells inside
01:35:25
◼
►
Apple like that's not a thing that is a reason to slack off on Mac development because at that point
01:35:29
◼
►
Why don't you just make a Chromebook right?
01:35:31
◼
►
Have you just surrendered entirely to the web like you've decided you're not going to
01:35:34
◼
►
You know have a native API anymore and just gonna allow web apps on the Mac then just give up right, but if you still think
01:35:41
◼
►
Native the Mac has a role with native applications
01:35:45
◼
►
Then I you know you you should really be looking at why people are not making native Mac applications
01:35:52
◼
►
And to Apple's credit, SwiftUI is part of that.
01:35:55
◼
►
It's like, look, we'll make it more attractive
01:35:57
◼
►
to make a Mac app if you can use a very similar API
01:35:59
◼
►
to make also your iPad and your phone apps,
01:36:01
◼
►
and that goes a long way.
01:36:02
◼
►
But the things that, like why use an iPad,
01:36:04
◼
►
why use a Mac instead of an iPad,
01:36:06
◼
►
it's all these kind of things
01:36:07
◼
►
that aren't possible on the iPad.
01:36:08
◼
►
They should lean into that,
01:36:09
◼
►
make the Mac to be even more like the Mac,
01:36:12
◼
►
make the iPad, you know,
01:36:14
◼
►
they need to sort of shift the window there.
01:36:16
◼
►
'Cause right now the window is,
01:36:17
◼
►
the Mac is increasingly closed down,
01:36:18
◼
►
the iPad never gets to do anything,
01:36:20
◼
►
and the iPhone gets to do even less.
01:36:21
◼
►
and they need to ship all that to the left
01:36:23
◼
►
where it's like the Mac gets to do
01:36:24
◼
►
all sorts of interesting stuff.
01:36:26
◼
►
That's where innovation can happen.
01:36:28
◼
►
Like, you know, we'll provide clean hooks, right?
01:36:30
◼
►
Or, you know, lean into the strengths of the Mac.
01:36:32
◼
►
And then it leaves a gap for the iPad to say,
01:36:33
◼
►
the iPad isn't as locked down.
01:36:35
◼
►
In fact, the iPad should be at least as open
01:36:37
◼
►
as the Mac is today, and the Mac should be
01:36:39
◼
►
much more open with much more hooks.
01:36:41
◼
►
But that is kind of, you know, as you noted,
01:36:43
◼
►
probably a thing that could only happen
01:36:45
◼
►
if the sales of the Mac and the iPad
01:36:47
◼
►
were much larger than they are today
01:36:49
◼
►
as compared to Apple's bread and butter,
01:36:51
◼
►
which is the iPhone.
01:36:52
◼
►
- Right, well, and Apple likes having control
01:36:54
◼
►
and the more hooks that it provides,
01:36:56
◼
►
it's letting third parties do things
01:36:57
◼
►
that it doesn't necessarily like.
01:36:59
◼
►
And I know that that doesn't mean that they aren't-
01:37:00
◼
►
- Put those icons in the mini bar.
01:37:01
◼
►
- It doesn't mean that they aren't necessarily good.
01:37:03
◼
►
It's just that they might not like it.
01:37:04
◼
►
And I guess I would also counter and say,
01:37:08
◼
►
I wasn't saying, oh, there aren't people writing software
01:37:11
◼
►
for the Mac, but I was saying,
01:37:14
◼
►
it seems like a really decreasing number of people
01:37:16
◼
►
who are writing software
01:37:19
◼
►
and they only wanna deploy it on the Mac
01:37:21
◼
►
and they want it to be Mac specific.
01:37:22
◼
►
Instead, it's up the funnel and it's sort of like,
01:37:25
◼
►
well, I wanna make something that runs on the iPad
01:37:28
◼
►
and the Mac or the iPhone and the iPad and the Mac.
01:37:30
◼
►
And so if Apple focuses part of its development cycle
01:37:34
◼
►
on creating hooks that are only for the Mac,
01:37:37
◼
►
that they're saying, well, like,
01:37:39
◼
►
but is anybody gonna use this or not?
01:37:41
◼
►
And I know it's a chicken and egg problem,
01:37:43
◼
►
but I do wonder if that is the rationale
01:37:46
◼
►
that's going on there is like,
01:37:48
◼
►
look, the Mac utility market and the people,
01:37:53
◼
►
they have turned, like who uses the Mac today?
01:37:56
◼
►
I would imagine from Apple's perspective,
01:37:58
◼
►
they look at people using the Mac and they say,
01:38:00
◼
►
most people who use the Mac are not downloading Moom, right?
01:38:04
◼
►
They're not downloading utility apps that are being tweaked.
01:38:09
◼
►
Instead, they're downloading like Slack.
01:38:11
◼
►
- I mean, they're running Electron apps
01:38:13
◼
►
and using a web browser, right?
01:38:14
◼
►
That's what they're doing, right?
01:38:16
◼
►
Again, that should be a warning sign for Apple.
01:38:17
◼
►
I feel like one of the biggest things is what I talked before the the brain drain of people who understand how to make a
01:38:22
◼
►
good Mac app like
01:38:23
◼
►
People who make like slack and and discord and stuff know how to make a good web app and a good web apps are good
01:38:28
◼
►
Like I choose to use Gmail on the web because I think it is a better experience than any of the native Mac apps
01:38:33
◼
►
Possibly MimeStream accepted but you know, that's just a labor of love. You can't really count on stuff like that happening
01:38:41
◼
►
I just think
01:38:42
◼
►
inside Apple and outside of Apple the knowledge of how to make a good Mac app and why you might want to make a good
01:38:48
◼
►
Why would you want to make a good Mac app?
01:38:50
◼
►
Who cares about that the fact that a good Mac app can be better than a good web app in
01:38:55
◼
►
Important ways that knowledge is being lost
01:38:57
◼
►
So the the best you can hope for is the people who are willing to make something for the Mac the best you can hope
01:39:02
◼
►
For is that they make a good web app on the Mac, you know, and and I think like again
01:39:05
◼
►
I think slack is a good web app on the map
01:39:07
◼
►
I think discord is a good web app on the Mac
01:39:08
◼
►
But they're not really Mac apps and that knowledge of what makes a good Mac app and why you won't want to do it is just
01:39:14
◼
►
disappearing through lack of attention through lack of nurturing through lack of support and that's not something you can get back as easily so if
01:39:20
◼
►
They did make these hooks the question will eventually be who knows how who knows what they what should be done with these hooks who?
01:39:26
◼
►
cares that they exist is there anybody out there who sees them and says ah
01:39:29
◼
►
Now I know what I can make because I'm a longtime Mac user who understands
01:39:34
◼
►
What kind of things you could do on the Mac that you can't do anywhere else eventually all those people are dead or retired
01:39:38
◼
►
And then the hooks definitely won't be worth doing because nobody knows how to use them
01:39:41
◼
►
It's the way you use your Mac something that that changes over time
01:39:46
◼
►
Or is it pretty much the same as it ever was I asked this because like in the last year
01:39:52
◼
►
I put a stream deck on my keyboard tray that I've got a bunch of buttons on and you know
01:39:57
◼
►
So I I've been trying and I've got some different
01:39:59
◼
►
Automation stuff that I'm doing and I have a different keyboard and you know, I I just I'm curious
01:40:06
◼
►
Have you do you evolve in little ways? I know you have a
01:40:10
◼
►
Reputation you you like it the way you like it and that's fine
01:40:13
◼
►
But I'm curious if you've tried sort of like some other stuff to sort of mix up how you use your Mac
01:40:19
◼
►
So in terms of the like what I'm physically doing while I sit in front of the computer
01:40:24
◼
►
I think the main things that have changed over the years are like at some point in the past we crossed over the threshold where
01:40:29
◼
►
There is an expectation that is it there's always a camera pointed at me
01:40:32
◼
►
and with a microphone.
01:40:34
◼
►
So that is definitely a thing that has changed
01:40:35
◼
►
about how I use my Mac.
01:40:36
◼
►
And for many years,
01:40:37
◼
►
that was not a thing that I cared about.
01:40:38
◼
►
I didn't buy an eyesight camera, for example,
01:40:40
◼
►
'cause it's not a thing I felt like I needed.
01:40:43
◼
►
But now, I have this Pro Display XDR,
01:40:46
◼
►
it doesn't have a camera in it.
01:40:47
◼
►
I bought one to put on it because there's an expectation
01:40:50
◼
►
that if you have a computer,
01:40:51
◼
►
it should have a camera that's facing you
01:40:53
◼
►
with the microphone.
01:40:54
◼
►
Similarly, as soon as Apple makes a computer
01:40:59
◼
►
that I can do this with having a touch ID sensor
01:41:03
◼
►
on the keyboard.
01:41:04
◼
►
My wife's computer does, mine doesn't.
01:41:06
◼
►
Very easy to incorporate that into your flow.
01:41:09
◼
►
And when you don't have it,
01:41:10
◼
►
it seems like your computer is now missing something.
01:41:13
◼
►
So I think those are the two sort of most recent
01:41:16
◼
►
big changes in the way I use it.
01:41:17
◼
►
But other than that, in front of me
01:41:19
◼
►
is an extended keyboard and a mouse.
01:41:21
◼
►
And if you went back to, you know, 1984,
01:41:24
◼
►
it would be a non-extended keyboard
01:41:26
◼
►
with no arrow keys on it and a mouse.
01:41:27
◼
►
And so it's not, if you squint,
01:41:29
◼
►
that part hasn't changed too much.
01:41:30
◼
►
And a lot of that is just physically speaking,
01:41:32
◼
►
using a mouse to me feels like walking
01:41:34
◼
►
and using anything else feels like, you know,
01:41:36
◼
►
walking around on stilts.
01:41:38
◼
►
- Has having the giant display changed your Mac life at all?
01:41:42
◼
►
Like I know when I went to a 27 inch display,
01:41:45
◼
►
and this is still the case,
01:41:46
◼
►
especially since I was using an 11 inch MacBook Air
01:41:49
◼
►
for so long, I still feel like 27 inches,
01:41:52
◼
►
let alone, you know, your enormous display.
01:41:55
◼
►
I don't think even now I really use most of it.
01:41:59
◼
►
I think that a lot of it is in my peripheral vision
01:42:01
◼
►
and that I'm still sort of using the center of the screen,
01:42:05
◼
►
but certainly getting more real estate like that.
01:42:08
◼
►
Do you just kind of drink it up
01:42:09
◼
►
and make it a part of your routine
01:42:12
◼
►
or did it alter your, you know,
01:42:15
◼
►
how you use your Mac to have such a huge display
01:42:17
◼
►
to work with?
01:42:18
◼
►
- So I used to have a 23 inch display
01:42:21
◼
►
and then my wife had a 27 inch with a 5K iMac.
01:42:25
◼
►
when I got the big one here, what is the XDR, 32?
01:42:29
◼
►
Something like that? - Yeah, I think so.
01:42:31
◼
►
- There was like 15 minutes to an hour
01:42:36
◼
►
where it felt so big that it was overwhelming
01:42:38
◼
►
and then it passed.
01:42:40
◼
►
It's kind of like getting a bigger house.
01:42:41
◼
►
You just fill it with stuff, right?
01:42:43
◼
►
Like I got used to it so easily.
01:42:46
◼
►
I've always- - Did the stuff,
01:42:48
◼
►
did you put new stuff on your display all the time
01:42:50
◼
►
or is it the same stuff kind of migrating to the edges?
01:42:53
◼
►
I'm from a purely, you know, it's you and me here, John,
01:42:56
◼
►
window management perspective.
01:42:58
◼
►
Did more crap get stuck on the screen
01:43:00
◼
►
that's visible all the time?
01:43:02
◼
►
Or did you just make your windows bigger or what?
01:43:04
◼
►
I mean, like, how do you adapt to that?
01:43:06
◼
►
- So a little bit of both of that,
01:43:07
◼
►
because that was part of like the 15 minutes
01:43:09
◼
►
to one hour thing.
01:43:10
◼
►
It was like my sort of my window arrangement pattern.
01:43:13
◼
►
If you want to think about this,
01:43:14
◼
►
like if you don't have this in your life,
01:43:15
◼
►
imagine that you are someone who works
01:43:20
◼
►
at a tool bench all day,
01:43:23
◼
►
and you're surrounded by your tools.
01:43:25
◼
►
When you're doing electronics repair,
01:43:26
◼
►
you got your soldering iron over here,
01:43:27
◼
►
you got your little wires here, you got your clippers here,
01:43:29
◼
►
these are in a drawer.
01:43:30
◼
►
Like you have everything arranged in your tool chest
01:43:33
◼
►
so you know just where it is.
01:43:33
◼
►
So if someone gives you a broken radio
01:43:35
◼
►
and you put it down on the table,
01:43:36
◼
►
you know just where to get the screwdriver,
01:43:38
◼
►
just where the anti-static mat is,
01:43:40
◼
►
where the soldering iron is,
01:43:41
◼
►
where the switch that turns it on is,
01:43:42
◼
►
you have everything arranged in your workspace.
01:43:44
◼
►
Then someone gives you a workspace that's 25% bigger.
01:43:47
◼
►
Do you just move everything 25% farther away?
01:43:49
◼
►
Or do you think, huh, now that it's bigger,
01:43:52
◼
►
Previously, I couldn't put the oscilloscope on my desk.
01:43:54
◼
►
It had to be over there,
01:43:55
◼
►
but now I have room on the desk for the oscilloscope
01:43:57
◼
►
and it takes a while for you to figure that out.
01:43:58
◼
►
So with my setup here,
01:44:01
◼
►
I did make some of the windows bigger
01:44:03
◼
►
because previously, they had to, especially height wise,
01:44:06
◼
►
but even width wise, I'm like, you know what?
01:44:07
◼
►
I can expand this a little bit.
01:44:09
◼
►
I've been sort of, based on the screens that I used
01:44:12
◼
►
and based on my desire to have web browser windows
01:44:13
◼
►
look kind of like an eight and a half by 11 piece of paper,
01:44:16
◼
►
I was always swimming against the tide of websites
01:44:19
◼
►
because very quickly, even in the 800 by 600 era,
01:44:21
◼
►
websites decided, "Hey, we demand the full width of your screen." And I was like, "No,
01:44:25
◼
►
you can't have it." So I would make the web browser window proportion like an American
01:44:31
◼
►
8.5 by 11 piece of paper vertically. Portrait display, right? It would be taller than it
01:44:36
◼
►
was wide. And every single website was like, "No, you shouldn't do that. You need to be
01:44:41
◼
►
wider than you are tall because we want all the width." And so lots of websites that I
01:44:45
◼
►
would see, the width would be too narrow to show everything the website wanted to show
01:44:49
◼
►
One of the most hilarious and evil current examples is App Store Connect,
01:44:54
◼
►
dot apple dot com, the place where developers go, formerly iTunes Connect,
01:44:58
◼
►
to see your apps, right?
01:45:00
◼
►
You go there to like, if you want to submit your app to the App Store,
01:45:02
◼
►
you put in metadata, you select which build you want to do,
01:45:05
◼
►
and then you submit.
01:45:06
◼
►
Like that happens on App Store Connect, right?
01:45:07
◼
►
The App Store Connect website, if your web browser is too narrow,
01:45:11
◼
►
just completely hides navigation items from the top bar.
01:45:14
◼
►
There's no dot dot dot, there's no way to see that you don't see them.
01:45:17
◼
►
And so if you're trying to do something in App Store Connect,
01:45:19
◼
►
You're like, I can't figure out how to do this. There's no menu item for it. I look for guides online
01:45:23
◼
►
It says go to the whatever menu, but I don't have a whatever menu
01:45:26
◼
►
Yeah, make your window a centimeter wider and then all of a sudden it appears, right?
01:45:30
◼
►
So I have now made my web browser windows wide enough that
01:45:33
◼
►
Most websites do not complain that the window is too narrow anymore
01:45:38
◼
►
So that was a big change in my life
01:45:40
◼
►
But a lot of it has also been now that I have extra room
01:45:43
◼
►
There are basically new slots new splay new places on my screen where things can go where previously they couldn't right
01:45:50
◼
►
Some of it the corners like for example
01:45:52
◼
►
The corners are less obscured than they were before right both because the dock doesn't fill the full width of my display
01:45:57
◼
►
I hope most of the time
01:45:59
◼
►
And also because there's more room in the corners and then there's more room and slots in the middle
01:46:02
◼
►
So I think maybe a day or two I had readjusted
01:46:06
◼
►
I had made all the couches a little bit bigger by resizing all of my web browser windows to be a little bit wider and
01:46:11
◼
►
and I'd found new residents of the new slots and I enjoy the ability to see more of the stuff that's
01:46:18
◼
►
in the corners. That makes sense. You adapt. I feel like I've got, yeah, a lot of as I got a bigger
01:46:25
◼
►
monitor, stuff that used to be behind is now off to the side so I have more status on it, which I
01:46:32
◼
►
love. That was, that's always been my complaint about the stage manager stuff on iPad is,
01:46:41
◼
►
I'm of the opinion that if you're gonna give us windows
01:46:43
◼
►
that we can theoretically move,
01:46:45
◼
►
you ought to let us move them.
01:46:46
◼
►
And I understand the desire to sort of like
01:46:52
◼
►
smartly snap windows and I'm actually okay with that.
01:46:54
◼
►
But like the one I mentioned this a few weeks ago,
01:46:57
◼
►
and apparently I blew people's minds who didn't know this,
01:46:59
◼
►
but like picture in picture window on the Mac,
01:47:01
◼
►
like it snaps to the corners.
01:47:02
◼
►
But if you hold down the command key and drag it,
01:47:06
◼
►
you can put it anywhere.
01:47:07
◼
►
- This is another example of things
01:47:09
◼
►
that only old school Mac users and developers understand
01:47:12
◼
►
is if there's something you can't do,
01:47:15
◼
►
try holding down a modifier and doing it.
01:47:17
◼
►
Which modifier should I hold down?
01:47:18
◼
►
Culturally, there's an answer to that question.
01:47:20
◼
►
And when the people developing it
01:47:22
◼
►
are from the same Mac culture as you,
01:47:24
◼
►
you usually get it on the first try.
01:47:25
◼
►
- Yeah, yeah, and if not, you can try them all
01:47:28
◼
►
and you will find things.
01:47:29
◼
►
And yeah, and your menu bar will change.
01:47:32
◼
►
All the different menus will change.
01:47:34
◼
►
- That's another thing that changed about the bigger screen
01:47:36
◼
►
is not that I was really strict about this before,
01:47:40
◼
►
but I did tend to not have a lot of icons in the menu bar
01:47:43
◼
►
because I didn't want them clashing with the menus.
01:47:45
◼
►
And now I can pull back on that a little bit
01:47:47
◼
►
because honestly I don't think there's any application
01:47:49
◼
►
that has so many menus that it spans
01:47:51
◼
►
in my 32 inch screen and bumps into my menu bar icons.
01:47:54
◼
►
- Yeah, exactly right.
01:47:57
◼
►
Anyway, for me, Stage Manager on the iPad
01:48:01
◼
►
was very much like, but you don't understand
01:48:03
◼
►
what I wanna do.
01:48:05
◼
►
And what I think is actually one of the great multitasking
01:48:07
◼
►
features of macOS is I wanna have the other apps
01:48:12
◼
►
that I'm using, the other windows that I'm using
01:48:15
◼
►
visible enough for me to know they're there
01:48:17
◼
►
and perhaps see some level of status on them,
01:48:20
◼
►
but covered up by what I'm working on right now.
01:48:23
◼
►
And then I can look over there and go,
01:48:25
◼
►
oh, something has changed with status,
01:48:27
◼
►
now I'm gonna look at it.
01:48:28
◼
►
- And also you can get to it by,
01:48:30
◼
►
and the Mac parlance clicking on it,
01:48:31
◼
►
because if you're wondering like what kind of,
01:48:33
◼
►
how big a target is there for me to click or tap
01:48:36
◼
►
with my finger, the corner of a window is a huge button.
01:48:39
◼
►
Really easy to hit.
01:48:41
◼
►
- Yeah, well, and you just click on the content
01:48:43
◼
►
and it's gonna bring it to the foreground too.
01:48:44
◼
►
You can do that.
01:48:45
◼
►
- Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
01:48:46
◼
►
So your tool for switching to that other window
01:48:49
◼
►
that the corner of it is peeking out
01:48:50
◼
►
is not to Command + Tab your way to it
01:48:52
◼
►
or tap on it in the icon,
01:48:53
◼
►
but it's to literally tap on or click on
01:48:55
◼
►
the exposed portion of the window.
01:48:57
◼
►
- And it brings it forward.
01:48:58
◼
►
But the problem where Stage Manager falls down is,
01:49:01
◼
►
I wanna do overlap and it's like,
01:49:03
◼
►
no, no, I'm gonna tile these windows.
01:49:04
◼
►
Well, I don't wanna do that.
01:49:05
◼
►
Or, and I know I complained about this on some podcast
01:49:08
◼
►
or other a few weeks ago is, when I'm writing especially,
01:49:11
◼
►
but when I'm working on anything,
01:49:12
◼
►
I want my center window front and center almost always
01:49:15
◼
►
to have that, and that's where all of the content is.
01:49:18
◼
►
And if you have two windows open in stage manager
01:49:21
◼
►
on the iPad, it's like, well,
01:49:22
◼
►
you obviously wanna tile these windows.
01:49:23
◼
►
It's like, no, no, no, no, no.
01:49:25
◼
►
I want one in the center and it won't let you.
01:49:28
◼
►
It just won't let you.
01:49:29
◼
►
It doesn't think you want that.
01:49:32
◼
►
- 'Cause it's value system is anything being obscured
01:49:35
◼
►
is the worst thing that could ever happen.
01:49:37
◼
►
- And I get that part of what Apple is trying to do
01:49:40
◼
►
with all of its many, many, many, many, many, many,
01:49:43
◼
►
many different window management solutions
01:49:45
◼
►
that it's tried over the last couple of decades.
01:49:48
◼
►
I know that one of the things they're trying to solve for
01:49:50
◼
►
is the problem of I can't find my window
01:49:53
◼
►
because it's behind another window.
01:49:55
◼
►
And it is an issue, people lose windows back there.
01:49:58
◼
►
It's like locking your keys in your car.
01:50:00
◼
►
People lose windows.
01:50:02
◼
►
And so, yeah, there's a trackpad gesture to make it,
01:50:04
◼
►
or you can switch to that app,
01:50:06
◼
►
click on the dock and it brings it forward.
01:50:08
◼
►
Like there are ways to solve it,
01:50:09
◼
►
but I know that Apple has human interface,
01:50:12
◼
►
like researchers or whatever, who are like,
01:50:14
◼
►
"Oh, the problem with windows is they get lost."
01:50:16
◼
►
And then you don't know where they are.
01:50:18
◼
►
Like, okay, I get it.
01:50:20
◼
►
But one, I don't lose windows.
01:50:23
◼
►
And two, I know how to find them if I lose them.
01:50:26
◼
►
And three, please let me put my window in the center,
01:50:29
◼
►
even if it covers up other windows.
01:50:30
◼
►
And it's just like, that is too a bridge too far for them.
01:50:33
◼
►
And it drives me nuts because like, why are we, again,
01:50:37
◼
►
we're gonna give you something that's Windows
01:50:39
◼
►
instead of Split View,
01:50:40
◼
►
but it's gonna act just like Split View.
01:50:42
◼
►
Like, why are we doing it then?
01:50:45
◼
►
- And you can make the defaults,
01:50:46
◼
►
like be that kind of friendly default,
01:50:47
◼
►
but kind of like picture in picture,
01:50:49
◼
►
there should be a way for me to insist.
01:50:52
◼
►
No, no, I insist.
01:50:53
◼
►
I insist because I know the style I want to,
01:50:55
◼
►
please let me insist, right?
01:50:57
◼
►
Not saying you have to make the default
01:50:58
◼
►
such that everyone's gonna lose their Windows,
01:50:59
◼
►
but it should be possible.
01:51:01
◼
►
- Yeah, right.
01:51:02
◼
►
Let us, besides, you know, serendipity,
01:51:04
◼
►
you never, you lose a window, you find a different window.
01:51:07
◼
►
It's all good.
01:51:08
◼
►
Man, come on.
01:51:09
◼
►
This episode of Upgrade is also brought to you by Capital One.
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I've always wanted to say that.
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Jon, before I let you go, I wanted to talk to you about good products.
01:52:32
◼
►
Good products.
01:52:33
◼
►
You actually linked to a post recently on Hypercritical about your canonical list of good products,
01:52:40
◼
►
products that you like.
01:52:42
◼
►
And I've been thinking about this.
01:52:44
◼
►
I was on the Thoroughly Considered podcast with the Studio Neat guys talking about my T-robot,
01:52:53
◼
►
which is a Breville, and you have a bunch of Breville products
01:52:56
◼
►
on your good products list.
01:52:58
◼
►
Also then, one of the Studio Neat guys brought up
01:53:01
◼
►
the Bitmore slot toaster, and although I know you're opposed
01:53:05
◼
►
to slot toasters, it was another one of those examples
01:53:07
◼
►
where it's a Breville, I have a Breville slot toaster.
01:53:10
◼
►
And he was tickled by the Bitmore concept,
01:53:15
◼
►
where basically if you check your toast
01:53:17
◼
►
and it needs to be done a bit more,
01:53:18
◼
►
you literally press a button that's labeled a bit more
01:53:21
◼
►
and push it down and it does it for a bit more.
01:53:24
◼
►
And my regular hot water kettle is also a Breville.
01:53:29
◼
►
So I wanted to ask you, like, first off,
01:53:32
◼
►
what makes a product good?
01:53:33
◼
►
And also why is it that there are so many
01:53:35
◼
►
Breville products on this list?
01:53:38
◼
►
Are they just, are they the apple of the kitchen?
01:53:41
◼
►
Is that what's happening there?
01:53:43
◼
►
- I mean, part of the secret of this post,
01:53:47
◼
►
the important part of this post is that it says
01:53:49
◼
►
good products not great products. That's a reflection of the economics of making
01:53:56
◼
►
sort of quote-unquote non-tech products so appliances, utensils, things that we don't think
01:54:04
◼
►
of as being computerized. I know there's a whole extra vein of computerized versions of all of
01:54:08
◼
►
these but for the most part those aren't great these days. So Breville comes up a lot because
01:54:14
◼
►
because I feel like they are a beneficiary of everyone else sucking so bad.
01:54:20
◼
►
And I know that's like damning with faint praise, but like, they make good things.
01:54:24
◼
►
If the landscape was filled with competent toaster oven makers,
01:54:29
◼
►
Greville would not stand out as much as it does.
01:54:31
◼
►
But, and you know, like I talked about on Hypercritical in the worse and more diverse episode,
01:54:36
◼
►
at a certain point it became more economically advantageous to make a series of extremely cheap to manufacture,
01:54:43
◼
►
but just barely passable toasters
01:54:46
◼
►
in a million different shapes and sizes and brands
01:54:49
◼
►
than it was to make one or two good toaster ovens, right?
01:54:53
◼
►
Same thing with all other appliances.
01:54:54
◼
►
Like it became more viable to do that.
01:54:57
◼
►
So you can find tons of toaster ovens,
01:54:59
◼
►
more toaster ovens than you could ever imagine finding
01:55:02
◼
►
on the shelves back in the '70s, right?
01:55:04
◼
►
So many toaster ovens of so many different shapes
01:55:06
◼
►
and sizes and appearances and colors
01:55:08
◼
►
and just so many of them, but they all suck.
01:55:11
◼
►
And so Breville, by not sucking completely,
01:55:15
◼
►
stands head and shoulders above everybody and say,
01:55:17
◼
►
"Hey, we still kind of care
01:55:19
◼
►
"about making a quality product."
01:55:21
◼
►
And that makes them amazing.
01:55:22
◼
►
That's why my recommended, preferred champion toaster oven,
01:55:27
◼
►
that is still the champion as far as I know
01:55:30
◼
►
after looking at a dozen other toasters,
01:55:32
◼
►
has a terrible plastic knob on it.
01:55:35
◼
►
This is not a great product,
01:55:38
◼
►
would have a great user interface with pleasing controls.
01:55:41
◼
►
So this doesn't, the user interface, it's okay.
01:55:44
◼
►
The knob is garbage, right?
01:55:46
◼
►
It's a cheap, shaky plastic thing
01:55:48
◼
►
that should not be on a toaster that costs 200 bucks
01:55:51
◼
►
or 150 on sale or whatever, right?
01:55:53
◼
►
That's why it's a good product and not a great product.
01:55:56
◼
►
But Breville stands so much higher
01:55:59
◼
►
than all the other toasters
01:56:00
◼
►
because at least it toasts things well
01:56:03
◼
►
and heats up fast and has even cooking
01:56:05
◼
►
and doesn't fall apart, right?
01:56:07
◼
►
That's so that's the frustration
01:56:08
◼
►
with a lot of things on this page.
01:56:09
◼
►
They're kind of like things that not to be old man about it
01:56:12
◼
►
but things that used to be made better because
01:56:14
◼
►
The economic incentives were different back then and it was better to make a three times more expensive
01:56:19
◼
►
Toaster oven that would last 20 years than to make one
01:56:22
◼
►
That's a third of the price that lasts a year and a half and sucks the whole time
01:56:25
◼
►
Right, right. And so that's why Breville's on here
01:56:29
◼
►
lot of these products the problem is like the sort of the the
01:56:31
◼
►
Mattress where you can never find the same mattress because they just change the name on it and they change it every year to you
01:56:36
◼
►
Know make it impossible to comparison shop, right?
01:56:38
◼
►
A lot of the products on here are like that.
01:56:40
◼
►
I dread the day they stopped making this toaster.
01:56:42
◼
►
The ice cream scoop already this year I looked
01:56:44
◼
►
and you can't buy the ice cream scoop anymore.
01:56:45
◼
►
You can just buy two ones that are kind of similar to it.
01:56:48
◼
►
My cheese grater, you can't get it all anymore.
01:56:49
◼
►
And my cheese grater was fatally flawed
01:56:51
◼
►
and breaks after a year.
01:56:52
◼
►
So I understand why they stopped making it,
01:56:53
◼
►
but they replaced it with a way worse one.
01:56:56
◼
►
My chef's knife, you can still find, but like, yeah.
01:56:58
◼
►
These are products that I think they're good
01:57:00
◼
►
in categories where it's hard to find anything
01:57:03
◼
►
that's even good.
01:57:03
◼
►
So when I do find a good one, I want to tell people,
01:57:05
◼
►
"Hey, if you want a good ice cream scoop,
01:57:08
◼
►
I've tried a whole bunch of them,
01:57:10
◼
►
most of them are terrible, here's a good one."
01:57:12
◼
►
And now you can't even buy it anymore.
01:57:14
◼
►
- I used your ice cream scoop badly last week.
01:57:17
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, I feel like you're from one
01:57:19
◼
►
of those households that lets the ice cream get soft.
01:57:22
◼
►
- I try not to 'cause I don't want to,
01:57:25
◼
►
but it sometimes is necessary 'cause it's hard as a rock.
01:57:29
◼
►
Also part of it is that I spent a long time
01:57:31
◼
►
without an ice cream scoop, we do have one now,
01:57:33
◼
►
and I bent so many spoons.
01:57:36
◼
►
- That's what I'm saying, you gotta use,
01:57:37
◼
►
you're not bending this OXO ice cream scoop.
01:57:39
◼
►
- Yeah, no, you're right, you're right.
01:57:41
◼
►
Also, I was the first one to try to dig into it
01:57:44
◼
►
and there was definitely a little bit of a hardened shell
01:57:49
◼
►
at the top of the ice cream. - It's not a hardened shell,
01:57:50
◼
►
it was hard through and through.
01:57:51
◼
►
I keep my freezer at a cold enough temperature
01:57:54
◼
►
that the ice cream is rock hard.
01:57:56
◼
►
- It's rock hard. - And I do that
01:57:56
◼
►
for two reasons.
01:57:57
◼
►
One, any amount of sort of freeze-thaw cycle
01:58:00
◼
►
in terms of your freezer getting a little bit warm
01:58:02
◼
►
and freezing down, getting a little bit wrong.
01:58:04
◼
►
It just makes bigger ice crystals.
01:58:05
◼
►
Like it screws up your ice cream.
01:58:06
◼
►
You do not want to even thaw a little bit
01:58:09
◼
►
and refreeze your ice cream.
01:58:10
◼
►
So having it be hard frozen all the time
01:58:13
◼
►
preserves the quality of the ice cream
01:58:15
◼
►
as however you're managed to get it
01:58:17
◼
►
from the store to your house.
01:58:18
◼
►
And two, my habit used to be back when
01:58:21
◼
►
I was slightly less healthy than I am today,
01:58:24
◼
►
the way I ate ice cream was I would pull the pint
01:58:26
◼
►
of Ben and Jerry's out of the freezer
01:58:27
◼
►
and sit on the couch with it.
01:58:28
◼
►
And having it hard frozen all the way through
01:58:31
◼
►
means that you can sit there on the couch and eat it.
01:58:33
◼
►
And by the time you're done having the amount you want,
01:58:35
◼
►
the rest of it hasn't melted.
01:58:37
◼
►
So I apologize for my hard ice cream,
01:58:38
◼
►
but there is a method of my madness,
01:58:39
◼
►
but I do agree it is too hard for most people to scoop.
01:58:42
◼
►
That's why I have the industrial pointy tipped
01:58:44
◼
►
OXO ice cream scoop that if you put enough elbow grease
01:58:47
◼
►
into it and you have good technique,
01:58:48
◼
►
you will be able to get a scoop out.
01:58:50
◼
►
- No, your technique was very impressive.
01:58:51
◼
►
And I will say that the pointy tip of the ice cream scoop
01:58:54
◼
►
was also something that I was not used to
01:58:56
◼
►
or thinking about.
01:58:57
◼
►
And if I had to do it all over again,
01:58:59
◼
►
I would try to do a better job.
01:59:01
◼
►
But like I said, I also,
01:59:02
◼
►
even with our ice cream scoop that we have,
01:59:04
◼
►
I feel like I am so bothered by the many spoons
01:59:09
◼
►
that I've been in the past
01:59:11
◼
►
that I ended up not putting the force into it
01:59:13
◼
►
that I really should.
01:59:14
◼
►
- You have to be careful to using the force as a technique
01:59:16
◼
►
is if you take something that pointy
01:59:17
◼
►
and you put a lot of force in it,
01:59:18
◼
►
you will punch right through the side
01:59:19
◼
►
of the cardboard ice cream container if you're not careful.
01:59:21
◼
►
So there is actually a skill involved
01:59:23
◼
►
in being able to successfully use that tool
01:59:26
◼
►
and not destroy the container.
01:59:27
◼
►
- Well, I love the,
01:59:29
◼
►
I mean, talking to the Studio Neat guys about Breville
01:59:33
◼
►
just brought back to me that they are,
01:59:34
◼
►
again, they are in a commodity business like everyone else,
01:59:37
◼
►
but they have decided to make a nicer thing.
01:59:41
◼
►
And like you said, not necessarily perfect,
01:59:44
◼
►
but they've decided that their brand promises
01:59:46
◼
►
that it's gonna be nicer.
01:59:47
◼
►
It's gonna be more expensive, but it's gonna be nicer.
01:59:50
◼
►
And that that is like,
01:59:52
◼
►
it's a little like saying their brand promises,
01:59:55
◼
►
hey, we care, or at least we care more
01:59:58
◼
►
than those other guys who are selling you something crappy.
02:00:00
◼
►
- Yeah, that's right.
02:00:01
◼
►
You just have to be faster than the other guy,
02:00:03
◼
►
not faster than the bear.
02:00:05
◼
►
- Exactly right.
02:00:06
◼
►
So we care more than everyone else,
02:00:08
◼
►
even if our products aren't perfect,
02:00:10
◼
►
which is not the ideal slogan.
02:00:11
◼
►
It's I'm not in marketing, don't at me.
02:00:13
◼
►
But I had that thought while talking to them.
02:00:16
◼
►
And those guys obviously are really interested in
02:00:18
◼
►
what makes a good product.
02:00:20
◼
►
How does this product work?
02:00:21
◼
►
What is unique about it?
02:00:22
◼
►
What promise does it fulfill?
02:00:23
◼
►
And it struck me, I told them a story about how
02:00:27
◼
►
My sister used to work in a distribution center for Target,
02:00:30
◼
►
and we were talking about Target at some point,
02:00:32
◼
►
and she said, "Oh, well, you gotta understand,
02:00:35
◼
►
in any given product category,
02:00:37
◼
►
there are eight different versions of it you can buy."
02:00:41
◼
►
And like number one is the dirt cheapest one
02:00:45
◼
►
you can possibly buy.
02:00:47
◼
►
And number eight is really nice, but super pricey.
02:00:52
◼
►
She said, "You gotta understand,
02:00:55
◼
►
Walmart wants number one.
02:00:57
◼
►
Target wants number three, four.
02:01:03
◼
►
And this is how she described it to me.
02:01:08
◼
►
I don't know if it's still like that,
02:01:09
◼
►
but it made sense to me.
02:01:10
◼
►
It was like, well, actually that works.
02:01:11
◼
►
It's like the Walmart stuff is cheaper
02:01:13
◼
►
in all meaningful ways.
02:01:16
◼
►
The Target stuff is a little bit nicer.
02:01:18
◼
►
And like that's Target's brand promises,
02:01:20
◼
►
we're a little bit nicer.
02:01:22
◼
►
And I think Breville is a little bit like that,
02:01:25
◼
►
where it's like, we're gonna make more of an effort
02:01:28
◼
►
than everyone else.
02:01:29
◼
►
And as a result, I have lots of Breville stuff in my house.
02:01:32
◼
►
- Walmart is not though cheaper in all meaningful ways
02:01:34
◼
►
because that modifier you add on it
02:01:36
◼
►
gets to the heart of it.
02:01:36
◼
►
It's like the, you know, whatever that was,
02:01:39
◼
►
someone can Google for it.
02:01:40
◼
►
I don't know if it's a modern saying meant to be old
02:01:41
◼
►
or either way.
02:01:42
◼
►
How much money it costs to be poor.
02:01:44
◼
►
The rich person can buy a pair of boots
02:01:46
◼
►
for 10 times the price,
02:01:48
◼
►
but they'll last in the rest of their life.
02:01:49
◼
►
The poor person has to buy a 1/10th price boot
02:01:51
◼
►
every single year, right?
02:01:52
◼
►
So if you get the one quality thing from Walmart, yes, it's way cheaper and it's great that these products are accessible to more people
02:01:58
◼
►
Because they're less expensive, but if it breaks after a year next year, you gotta buy another one
02:02:01
◼
►
Whereas the person who bought the expensive one in theory
02:02:04
◼
►
That one lasts longer
02:02:06
◼
►
The problem is now that the 10 quality products only lasts like 1.5 times as long as the one quality products
02:02:12
◼
►
So you get to pay more and also they still break after like a year and a half instead of a year
02:02:17
◼
►
So we're in a bad situation with a lot of these appliances
02:02:20
◼
►
- Depends, but yeah.
02:02:21
◼
►
And this is an oversimplification in the chat room,
02:02:24
◼
►
Matt pointed out, like Target actually wants
02:02:25
◼
►
like number two, four, and six.
02:02:26
◼
►
I would say, according to my sister,
02:02:28
◼
►
it was more like three, maybe three, four, five,
02:02:31
◼
►
or three, five, and seven.
02:02:33
◼
►
Like you obviously there's some marketing
02:02:34
◼
►
that Walmart doesn't just have the number one,
02:02:36
◼
►
it probably also has the number two or three.
02:02:38
◼
►
But like the goal, the brand promises,
02:02:40
◼
►
we're gonna get you the cheapest thing.
02:02:41
◼
►
It's gonna be cheaper at Walmart.
02:02:43
◼
►
I had at one point, one of the first times
02:02:45
◼
►
I think I ever went into Walmart,
02:02:47
◼
►
was visiting my parents when they moved
02:02:49
◼
►
into their house in Arizona.
02:02:50
◼
►
We don't have, and people are like,
02:02:51
◼
►
"Oh yeah, I don't go into a Walmart."
02:02:52
◼
►
It's like, literally,
02:02:53
◼
►
I've never lived anywhere near a Walmart.
02:02:56
◼
►
There is a Walmart in my hometown now,
02:02:57
◼
►
but it wasn't there when I lived there.
02:02:58
◼
►
And there is no Walmart in the county that I live in.
02:03:00
◼
►
None, not one.
02:03:01
◼
►
There are a lot of targets though, upscale.
02:03:05
◼
►
So I go into them and at one point,
02:03:08
◼
►
my dad was in the hospital
02:03:09
◼
►
and I was there longer than I thought I was gonna be.
02:03:12
◼
►
And I actually bought like a couple of shirts.
02:03:16
◼
►
And like, look, I don't know what to say other than say,
02:03:20
◼
►
I bought a new t-shirt and after two washes,
02:03:23
◼
►
I couldn't wear it anymore.
02:03:24
◼
►
Like it was cheap and terrible.
02:03:28
◼
►
And like that, and so much of what we buy is driven down
02:03:31
◼
►
because it's like, we need the price to be down.
02:03:33
◼
►
And so, well, we're gonna make it somewhere
02:03:36
◼
►
where people don't get paid very much to make it
02:03:38
◼
►
and it's not gonna be very good.
02:03:40
◼
►
And, but it's cheap.
02:03:42
◼
►
And if all you're shopping on is the price tag,
02:03:45
◼
►
for whatever reason, because you're looking for a deal,
02:03:47
◼
►
because you just don't have the money to buy anything
02:03:48
◼
►
except for whatever is the lowest price.
02:03:50
◼
►
That's what you'll get.
02:03:51
◼
►
But I am fascinated by the companies
02:03:54
◼
►
that try to buck that trend a little bit.
02:03:55
◼
►
And obviously this is the story of Apple too,
02:03:58
◼
►
at one fundamental level.
02:03:59
◼
►
All of those years during the time
02:04:01
◼
►
when everybody looked at Mac users,
02:04:03
◼
►
like, why are you, why would you,
02:04:05
◼
►
what illness do you have that makes you want to use
02:04:08
◼
►
this weird non-standard computer
02:04:10
◼
►
instead of the one that literally everybody else does?
02:04:13
◼
►
One of my answers was always,
02:04:14
◼
►
Yeah, but it's better.
02:04:16
◼
►
Yeah, I know it's not compatible, but it's better.
02:04:19
◼
►
Apple does better stuff.
02:04:20
◼
►
And then, you know, that has ebbed and flowed over time,
02:04:24
◼
►
but there is, and there has always been,
02:04:27
◼
►
the level below which Apple doesn't wanna go.
02:04:30
◼
►
And so people will say,
02:04:31
◼
►
"Well, yeah, I can get a MacBook for $999,
02:04:34
◼
►
"but I can get a Windows laptop for 300 bucks."
02:04:37
◼
►
And it's like, well, Apple could make a laptop for 300 bucks
02:04:40
◼
►
if it wanted to, but it refuses.
02:04:43
◼
►
It refuses to do that because it's got as part of its brand,
02:04:46
◼
►
like it's gotta be at a certain level and not go below it.
02:04:50
◼
►
And Breville isn't Apple,
02:04:51
◼
►
but I get a little bit of that vibe from it,
02:04:55
◼
►
which is I would rather spend a little more money
02:04:57
◼
►
and get something that's nicer
02:04:59
◼
►
because I'd really rather use a product that's nicer.
02:05:04
◼
►
Also when my T-robot broke,
02:05:07
◼
►
I sent it to Breville and they sent me a new one.
02:05:10
◼
►
I thought I would have to pay them for them to fix it.
02:05:13
◼
►
They literally just sent me a new one,
02:05:15
◼
►
which was also one of those moments of like,
02:05:17
◼
►
oh, I kind of like this company.
02:05:18
◼
►
I like how they're thinking here.
02:05:20
◼
►
- Yeah, Burble is bucking the trend a little bit,
02:05:22
◼
►
but they're not as up to the Apple level.
02:05:24
◼
►
And like Apple has, especially on hardware,
02:05:27
◼
►
has held the line very well in terms of quality.
02:05:30
◼
►
You can quibble about,
02:05:31
◼
►
they're subject to the same sort of economic forces
02:05:34
◼
►
that push down the quality of everything.
02:05:37
◼
►
So they are they have been a victim of various commodity things and manufacturing
02:05:42
◼
►
You know realities that cause them to use parts that are lower quality than they might have been simply because it's it becomes cost prohibitive
02:05:48
◼
►
To do this thing in a totally custom way when you can get economically these cheap little components, right?
02:05:54
◼
►
But Apple pushes the industry in the other direction like they will push their suppliers to give them better quality stuff
02:06:01
◼
►
They'll they will demand from their suppliers things made without toxic chemicals
02:06:05
◼
►
Which is not that's not a market force making that happen. It is Apple making that happen, right?
02:06:09
◼
►
Breville seems much more subject to the market forces that dictate the internal components of appliances than sure does but they're both fighting
02:06:17
◼
►
They're both fighting that fight and in the end the things that Breville makes are less complicated at least for now
02:06:22
◼
►
the the computerized version of these like oh you can buy a toaster with the camera and a little computer in it that looks to
02:06:27
◼
►
See how brown your toast is and that is a burgeoning market. I feel like that market is I'm I look at that
02:06:32
◼
►
I'm like, yeah
02:06:33
◼
►
I know how tech products work and I know enough to stay away from that because
02:06:36
◼
►
The odds of me buying the very first toaster oven looks at how brown my toast is and still using it in ten years are
02:06:41
◼
►
Way lower than you know buying
02:06:43
◼
►
Or getting my Breville toaster which I've now used for 11 years or so and it's still going strong
02:06:47
◼
►
We use machine learning to determine the brownness of your toast and I don't poo-poo that I think it's a good idea
02:06:53
◼
►
It's just that like it's gonna take a while for that to shake out to the point where it is
02:06:58
◼
►
Reliable and you know doesn't have security flaws and get software updates
02:07:02
◼
►
And it's like I I don't need to sign up for that anymore than I really have to I will have to eventually sign up
02:07:07
◼
►
For that everywhere, but I like it
02:07:09
◼
►
I like the kinks to be worked out of it first before I jump into that I get enough of that and you know in
02:07:13
◼
►
My day job dealing with you know computer technology products where I am signing up for all of that. Maybe don't need it on my toaster
02:07:19
◼
►
Yeah, when we're talking about
02:07:22
◼
►
Target and Walmart and all that I wanted to mention
02:07:27
◼
►
examples I've got is that I bought these waffle Henleys at
02:07:32
◼
►
I don't actually know where I think maybe you wore one to my house. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I think it was long sleeves
02:07:38
◼
►
I think it was back in the day. I bought them at I'm gonna say something like
02:07:43
◼
►
Mervyn's or something a long gone department store
02:07:47
◼
►
But like not up not upscale at all and I don't know how much they cost
02:07:53
◼
►
but my guess is it gonna be it was like
02:07:57
◼
►
20 or 30 dollars. I don't know, it could have been 40. I had two of them, a red one and a blue one,
02:08:03
◼
►
and I wore them, I wore them out and beyond out because I loved them. And after I had them about
02:08:10
◼
►
five years, I realized I need to buy more of these because I love them and I'm wearing them all the
02:08:20
◼
►
time. And then my ghost appears on your shoulder and says, "Jason, do they still make them?"
02:08:26
◼
►
if the perfect time to have bought them was when you bought the others but then you didn't because
02:08:32
◼
►
you know you don't know which is the product that you buy one in 20 products that you buy is the one
02:08:36
◼
►
you love and you want to have them for the rest of your life. I was just thinking you have to the
02:08:40
◼
►
the practice you have to get better at is like once you realize even if it's a year into it six months
02:08:45
◼
►
once you realize that you like them that's the time to buy multiples not waiting until they actually
02:08:50
◼
►
wear out? Yeah, yeah, I know, right? So I went at that point and I began my
02:08:56
◼
►
quest to find them. And I could never find... I found lots of Waffle Henleys at all
02:09:02
◼
►
sorts of different places, at Target, at Mervyn's, on the internet, all these
02:09:06
◼
►
places. And I bought a bunch of them and none of them were any good. None of them
02:09:11
◼
►
had good sleeves, they were thin, they didn't... they weren't hemmed at the
02:09:17
◼
►
bottom so they just kind of like splayed out all loose and thin and awful instead
02:09:21
◼
►
of having a little hem at the bottom so that they become so so I ended up for
02:09:26
◼
►
years like wearing through that red and the blue the blue died at some point and
02:09:30
◼
►
I still wore the red one but I couldn't I was told like by officials within my
02:09:34
◼
►
house I couldn't wear it in public anymore but I still wore it in the
02:09:38
◼
►
house or I could wear it in public only if it was covered and I was never gonna
02:09:41
◼
►
take off whatever was covering it they were falling apart but I loved them so
02:09:45
◼
►
much and I went on this quest and I could never find anything that was
02:09:50
◼
►
remotely a match for it and I tried. And like two years ago for Christmas, Lauren
02:09:57
◼
►
got me a Waffle Henley and I said "Oh my god, this is so close." Not the same but
02:10:03
◼
►
this is so close. It was actually a little heavier than I wanted it to be
02:10:07
◼
►
but it was so close to those the ones that I had gotten back in the day.
02:10:14
◼
►
And it was from American Giant,
02:10:18
◼
►
another company that's like, they make them in America,
02:10:21
◼
►
and the goal is quality and not hitting a price point.
02:10:25
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And I went to their website and discovered
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that she had bought me the heavy waffle Henley,
02:10:30
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but they also had a regular waffle Henley.
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And I ordered that one.
02:10:34
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And that was the jackpot.
02:10:36
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That was like, yes, this is exactly,
02:10:40
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but like almost identical to what I had gotten
02:10:43
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15 years before, 20 years.
02:10:45
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Actually, I gotta say, there's a picture of me
02:10:47
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holding my newborn daughter wearing that red one,
02:10:49
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so it's more than 20 years ago.
02:10:51
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Probably a lot more than 25 years ago
02:10:55
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I had that shirt, a long time,
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like 20 years I had that shirt.
02:10:59
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So I found it and I was like, oh my God.
02:11:00
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So I bought the one and it was perfect.
02:11:02
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And then what I did, Jon, of course,
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is I immediately ordered one of every color that they made.
02:11:09
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But my point in telling this story is,
02:11:10
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That waffle Henley I got at Mervyn's that lasted for 20 years in 1998 cost 30 bucks.
02:11:17
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The waffle Henley from American Giant costs 100 bucks.
02:11:21
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And while time has marched on and inflation happens, all of that is true.
02:11:27
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$100 today and $30 in 1998 are not the same, but they're closer.
02:11:35
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But what's happened in that time also is the pressure for most retailers of clothing in
02:11:41
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the US has been to get the price down or hold it constant.
02:11:46
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And I think that that's why I never got one over the intervening 20 years is because they
02:11:53
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couldn't make them.
02:11:54
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You were looking for the $30 ones.
02:11:55
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I was looking for the—well, no, they had to hold their price point.
02:11:58
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It's a little bit like saying Apple has the new M2 MacBook Air and it doesn't cost $999
02:12:03
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because they can't hold it there.
02:12:04
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I think that the clothing manufacturers are like,
02:12:07
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"We gotta hold the price point, it can't go up."
02:12:09
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And so as a result, they started, they took out the hem,
02:12:12
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they made lighter fabric,
02:12:13
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and they just made it worse and worse and worse.
02:12:15
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And all those that I was trying to buy
02:12:17
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that were never any good,
02:12:18
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I think they were the replacements for what I bought.
02:12:20
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They were just de-contenting the shirt
02:12:23
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because they like had to make it cheaper.
02:12:26
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And then I turn around and like,
02:12:27
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"Do I like that this shirt that I love costs 100 bucks?
02:12:30
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"No, but I have some hopes that they're gonna last,
02:12:33
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if not 20 years, 10 years, and they're good when I wear them.
02:12:38
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But it was quite a moment of understanding that like,
02:12:43
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"Oh, I see what happened here."
02:12:45
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Is that the thing that I bought at some kind of
02:12:47
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semi-crappy department store in the late '90s
02:12:50
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for 30 bucks or 25 bucks, to get that now,
02:12:54
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you gotta spend a hundred bucks.
02:12:55
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- Did you do the inflation calculator?
02:12:56
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Just to double check that $30 in 1990 is not a hundred?
02:13:00
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Well, so with clothes and cars and many other things,
02:13:03
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There's a lot of cases where there was a moment in time where the geopolitical balance was such that people could be
02:13:09
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exploited extra hard at one part of the earth that gave us a $30 high quality hemmie here in that time
02:13:14
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It was kind of like plastic recycling right in China, right?
02:13:17
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And so there's used to have a price. No, it doesn't.
02:13:19
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These are terrible imbalances in the world that for a moment gave us more value than
02:13:23
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uh than was healthy and now like that has slightly changed the balance of but
02:13:29
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It's so difficult to tell with things like clothes, but but yeah like downward price pressure is good, but
02:13:34
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You know this the thing I was talking about before I finally found that it was a Terry Pratchett 1993 speaking of the 90s
02:13:40
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From one of the the men at arms discworld novel it's the character Sam Vines the boot theory of
02:13:46
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Socio-economic unfairness will link to the Wikipedia page because of course this one theory has an entire Wikipedia page at boots underscore theory
02:13:57
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Like I what you would think would be healthier
02:14:01
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not obviously the rich person thing where everything cost a bazillion dollars for no reason in the margin strategy I can't take but simply that
02:14:08
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You know the the economic rising tide is such that
02:14:12
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individuals are
02:14:14
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Making enough money to be able to buy the one pair of good boots instead of the hundreds of pair of crappy boots, right?
02:14:22
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But unfortunately the same pressures that make it so that we need to make the boots cheaper and cheaper every single year also
02:14:28
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You know also exert downward wage pressure on
02:14:31
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►
Workers who don't have power as compared to corporations and so it's that's the Walmart story, right?
02:14:37
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►
Is that it's not just that Walmart looks for price number one quality number one
02:14:41
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►
It's also that Walmart doesn't want to play price one where they go to the makers of price three and they say
02:14:47
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You need to make it for price one and then they're like, oh god
02:14:50
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►
how do we do that? And yeah, there are a lot of ramifications here. I bring all this up mostly
02:14:56
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►
just to say that I do admire that there are companies that say we're not going to base our
02:15:02
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brand and our business on chasing the bottom line of like, we can cut costs. Not that they don't
02:15:10
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►
worry about their costs, but that part of what we do is making the thing that's nicer and selling it
02:15:16
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for more to the people who care that it's better.
02:15:20
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And I love those companies,
02:15:24
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even though sometimes I wince at the prices,
02:15:28
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and sometimes I don't buy them because I'm like,
02:15:30
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►
"No, no, no, that's too much."
02:15:31
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►
But I do appreciate that they exist,
02:15:34
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►
and that's how I ended up with Breville stuff in my kitchen,
02:15:36
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and I think why you did and yours,
02:15:37
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and that's why I'm wearing an American giant
02:15:40
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►
button Henley right now, in fact.
02:15:43
◼
►
- Yeah, the waffle maker, the last item on my list,
02:15:45
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►
is the most egregious because you know this is the one where the margins are the biggest
02:15:49
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►
and it is just so expensive for what you get but the sad reality is that all the other
02:15:55
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►
waffle makers I tried were so bad that I was, you know, I'm in the position where I can
02:16:00
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►
afford to buy a horrendously expensive waffle iron so I did but I don't feel good about
02:16:04
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►
it but boy is it a good waffle iron but it is not worth the price they're selling it
02:16:09
◼
►
It is not like the Mac stuff where it's like oh a Mac laptop.
02:16:11
◼
►
like Rolex where it's like if you just need to tell the time on your which on
02:16:14
◼
►
your wrist sorry you know don't don't buy a Rolex because the price is so
02:16:18
◼
►
disconnected from the value although you could argue for a collectability or
02:16:22
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►
whatever there's no collectability to this waffle maker it is just a too
02:16:24
◼
►
expensive waffle maker but yeah all the other ones I tried were terrible look I
02:16:29
◼
►
don't want to spend $100 on a shirt I don't I really really really really
02:16:32
◼
►
don't but after 25 years I was like yeah I will I will and they're very good
02:16:38
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►
They're very good.
02:16:40
◼
►
All right, John, thank you so much for being on Upgrade.
02:16:43
◼
►
Again, I enjoy chatting with you in person
02:16:46
◼
►
and on other podcasts, but it's nice to do it
02:16:48
◼
►
in this little corner of my podcast world.
02:16:51
◼
►
- Yeah, we managed to fit it in the dog window.
02:16:54
◼
►
The dog left, leaving us in blessed silence
02:16:56
◼
►
and I don't think she's returned yet.
02:16:58
◼
►
- Ah, perfect.
02:16:59
◼
►
I like fitting in the dog window, that's good.
02:17:00
◼
►
It's like a dog door, but people can fit in it.
02:17:03
◼
►
Podcasts can fit in it, it's great.
02:17:05
◼
►
Well, people can check you out atp.fm
02:17:08
◼
►
for "Exidental Tech Podcast" here at Relay,
02:17:11
◼
►
"Reconsiderable Differences" with our buddy Merlin,
02:17:14
◼
►
"Robot or Not at the Incomparable,"
02:17:17
◼
►
where Jon and I deal with thorny issues of existence,
02:17:22
◼
►
listened to by philosophy professors, apparently,
02:17:25
◼
►
which I find both delightful and unnerving.
02:17:29
◼
►
- And don't forget the upcoming episode of "The Incomparable"
02:17:31
◼
►
where you can hear us talk about Andor.
02:17:33
◼
►
- Andor, yeah, absolutely.
02:17:35
◼
►
- Absolutely, I do fear, Jon though, that in the end,
02:17:38
◼
►
the thing we'll be most remembered for
02:17:40
◼
►
is all the academic citations to robots or not.
02:17:44
◼
►
- Fear, that's great, this is the only legacy
02:17:46
◼
►
I'm gonna have.
02:17:47
◼
►
- It's like, boy, expert on robots or not.
02:17:50
◼
►
- If only I could get an academic citation for follow-up,
02:17:52
◼
►
but it seems like that's not happening.
02:17:53
◼
►
- It's probably, probably not.
02:17:55
◼
►
All right, you can find me, Jason L. on Twitter, of course,
02:17:59
◼
►
and sure, jasonladvancedon.social, go ahead, go nuts,
02:18:03
◼
►
And sixcolors.com is a great place to go for all of my stuff.
02:18:07
◼
►
Myke will be back next week. Yay!
02:18:11
◼
►
But until then, say goodbye, John Sarachisa.
02:18:13
◼
►
- You're cheering for me leaving? Fine. Get Myke back.
02:18:16
◼
►
You don't like me? Get your regular host. I don't care.
02:18:18
◼
►
- Come back, Myke! John is being mean to me.
02:18:20
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[MUSIC PLAYING]