Upgrade

00:00:00 ◼   ► (bells ringing)

00:00:02 ◼   ► (upbeat music)

00:00:06 ◼   ► - From Relay FM, this is Upgrade, episode 438.

00:00:12 ◼   ► Today's show is brought to you by TextExpander,

00:00:15 ◼   ► Fitbod, and Zocdoc.

00:00:17 ◼   ► My name is Myke Hurley,

00:00:18 ◼   ► and I'm joined by Jason "Claws" Snow.

00:00:22 ◼   ► - Ho, ho, ho, Myke.

00:00:24 ◼   ► Happy holidays, Merry Christmas to you and to everyone.

00:00:28 ◼   ► and this is our holiday special, I guess.

00:00:31 ◼   ► It's not, how special is it?

00:00:32 ◼   ► - This is our holiday antitrust special!

00:00:35 ◼   ► Oh!

00:00:36 ◼   ► - No!

00:00:37 ◼   ► - Too much news this week!

00:00:40 ◼   ► - Too much, yes.

00:00:42 ◼   ► We got you a present, the present is news.

00:00:45 ◼   ► - The present is the Digital Markets Act

00:00:48 ◼   ► has been wrapped and put under a tree for you.

00:00:50 ◼   ► We're gonna talk about it.

00:00:52 ◼   ► - Oh, so no, no, I think it's in the stocking.

00:00:54 ◼   ► It's like you were very bad

00:00:55 ◼   ► and you got a Digital Markets Act in your stocking

00:00:58 ◼   ► - And Apple has been given a bag of coal,

00:01:01 ◼   ► and that coal is legislation.

00:01:04 ◼   ► - And we as podcasters burn that coal.

00:01:07 ◼   ► - Turn it into fuel.

00:01:10 ◼   ► - Fuel for podcasts.

00:01:11 ◼   ► - Wow, this is a wonderful metaphor.

00:01:14 ◼   ► - And it's a Christmas miracle.

00:01:16 ◼   ► And it's Hanukkah, so also that coal,

00:01:18 ◼   ► it's really only enough for one night,

00:01:21 ◼   ► but it burns for eight.

00:01:23 ◼   ► - That's the real magic.

00:01:24 ◼   ► Yeah, this should only be one episode.

00:01:26 ◼   ► We're gonna get eight out of it.

00:01:28 ◼   ► And that is the true Hanukkah miracle.

00:01:30 ◼   ► - Oh man, yeah.

00:01:32 ◼   ► - I have a hashtag Snail Talk question,

00:01:34 ◼   ► which I'm actually gonna start transitioning this

00:01:36 ◼   ► to just becoming Snail Talk.

00:01:38 ◼   ► I have a Snail Talk question for you, Jason.

00:01:40 ◼   ► - Oh wow, you just blew my mind with that, okay.

00:01:43 ◼   ► All right. - I have a Snail Talk

00:01:44 ◼   ► question for you, it comes from Chris who wants to know,

00:01:46 ◼   ► if you close all of the windows of an app on the Mac,

00:01:50 ◼   ► do you also quit that app?

00:01:51 ◼   ► - So I don't have, I mean, my policy here is not,

00:01:56 ◼   ► like if all the windows are closed, then you quit the app.

00:02:00 ◼   ► First of all, I'm gonna recognize that people

00:02:02 ◼   ► who come from Windows probably have a very weird

00:02:05 ◼   ► relationship with the way the Mac handles windows

00:02:08 ◼   ► in that you close all the windows of an app

00:02:10 ◼   ► and the app doesn't close automatically,

00:02:12 ◼   ► except for some apps that do now, which drives me crazy.

00:02:16 ◼   ► But okay, so the answer is generally no,

00:02:21 ◼   ► because if I'm closing all the windows,

00:02:25 ◼   ► - Well, I mean, it depends.

00:02:28 ◼   ► Sometimes I just quit the app, right?

00:02:30 ◼   ► And you leave the windows open and they come back.

00:02:32 ◼   ► Sometimes you close the windows and you don't quit the app

00:02:35 ◼   ► because you're gonna come back to the app

00:02:36 ◼   ► and it just doesn't have any windows right now.

00:02:39 ◼   ► And other times you close all the windows

00:02:41 ◼   ► and then you quit the app because you're done with your job

00:02:44 ◼   ► and you're not gonna go back there.

00:02:45 ◼   ► Like if I'm in Photoshop or something and I finish,

00:02:47 ◼   ► I'll save it and I'll close it and I'll quit it.

00:02:49 ◼   ► And yes, maybe that's muscle memory from 1990.

00:02:52 ◼   ► But, so it totally varies based on like my intentions

00:02:56 ◼   ► toward that app.

00:02:56 ◼   ► And I don't do a thing,

00:02:57 ◼   ► I'm not concerned about having kind of extra apps running

00:03:01 ◼   ► without windows open, just sitting there.

00:03:04 ◼   ► Also, all the running processes are in the dock.

00:03:07 ◼   ► So if I do leave something open and then I look over later

00:03:10 ◼   ► and I'm like, oh, why is Zoom still open?

00:03:12 ◼   ► I'll just quit it then.

00:03:14 ◼   ► But a lot of times I'm coming,

00:03:17 ◼   ► I know I'm coming back to that app,

00:03:18 ◼   ► so I won't worry about it.

00:03:19 ◼   ► I'll just leave it open.

00:03:21 ◼   ► I typically, like, if I'm quitting an app,

00:03:24 ◼   ► I reflexively command W, command Q.

00:03:28 ◼   ► - Interesting.

00:03:29 ◼   ► - I just don't want the app open.

00:03:31 ◼   ► And sometimes it's, this is the thing,

00:03:33 ◼   ► it depends on the app,

00:03:34 ◼   ► but sometimes I wish that quitting the app

00:03:36 ◼   ► closed all the windows,

00:03:37 ◼   ► but sometimes I don't want that to happen also, you know?

00:03:40 ◼   ► So like, it's, I'm just used to doing both.

00:03:43 ◼   ► - Yeah, the, like BB edit, like I write in BB edit,

00:03:48 ◼   ► and I do lots of work in BB edit.

00:03:49 ◼   ► I don't quit BB edit.

00:03:50 ◼   ► I close Windows, like BBA is open right now with no windows open.

00:03:54 ◼   ► Because I'm gonna be over there, right?

00:03:57 ◼   ► Like I'm gonna make more windows, so like I'm just gonna leave it open.

00:03:59 ◼   ► I have lots of RAM, I don't care.

00:04:01 ◼   ► I could, I mean, honestly we're at the point now where for a lot of apps it really doesn't

00:04:06 ◼   ► matter.

00:04:07 ◼   ► There are apps that take forever to load, but for the most part, like the difference

00:04:10 ◼   ► between clicking on the dock for an app that's not open and clicking on the dock for an app

00:04:15 ◼   ► that is open is insubstantial, right?

00:04:18 ◼   ► It doesn't matter.

00:04:21 ◼   ► And I think Apple would like it to be that way.

00:04:23 ◼   ► But like Photoshop's a great example where like if I'm doing things in Photoshop, I'm

00:04:27 ◼   ► going to keep Photoshop open because when you open Photoshop, you sit there and then

00:04:31 ◼   ► the window comes up with a picture of the lady from the Lord of the Rings show who's

00:04:35 ◼   ► dressed like Captain Marvel.

00:04:37 ◼   ► And then you wait and you wait and you wait.

00:04:40 ◼   ► Photoshop people know what I'm talking about.

00:04:42 ◼   ► And then finally it opens.

00:04:43 ◼   ► So that one you want to keep open unless you are done.

00:04:48 ◼   ► But I do love, and it used to be back in the day

00:04:51 ◼   ► that launching an app took forever.

00:04:52 ◼   ► And so you really wouldn't want to,

00:04:54 ◼   ► although you didn't have very much RAM,

00:04:55 ◼   ► but like, if I'm gonna use this later,

00:04:58 ◼   ► I'm gonna keep it open now because,

00:05:00 ◼   ► but not too much later,

00:05:01 ◼   ► because I don't wanna have to sit through the launch again.

00:05:04 ◼   ► Today, it doesn't matter so much, right?

00:05:06 ◼   ► It doesn't matter so much.

00:05:07 ◼   ► So I'm a lot less concerned about it.

00:05:11 ◼   ► But if I figure I'm gonna use it later,

00:05:13 ◼   ► I just leave it open 'cause I don't know why,

00:05:14 ◼   ► because why would I close it?

00:05:16 ◼   ► What does it matter?

00:05:17 ◼   ► If you would like to send in a Snowtalk question of your own,

00:05:20 ◼   ► you can use the Relay FM members Discord

00:05:22 ◼   ► with the question mark Snowtalk command,

00:05:26 ◼   ► you can send in your question.

00:05:28 ◼   ► You can currently still use Twitter.

00:05:29 ◼   ► You can use the hashtag Snowtalk

00:05:31 ◼   ► and send a submission that way too.

00:05:33 ◼   ► - And if you don't have either of those,

00:05:38 ◼   ► at the very least you could go to relay.fm/upgrade

00:05:43 ◼   ► and click on the, what is the link called?

00:05:48 ◼   ► Contact.

00:05:50 ◼   ► - It's called contact and it'll send an email.

00:05:52 ◼   ► I really don't want it, but if you got to do it,

00:05:54 ◼   ► like go for it, you know,

00:05:55 ◼   ► but we're working on something better.

00:05:57 ◼   ► - Yeah, here's our message is that right now

00:05:59 ◼   ► that's how you do it, but in the near future,

00:06:01 ◼   ► there will be a way for you to send,

00:06:03 ◼   ► we might even say tweet length,

00:06:05 ◼   ► feedback about the show, Snell Talk, Ask Upgrade,

00:06:09 ◼   ► all via the Relay FM website,

00:06:11 ◼   ► because we know a lot of people are not on Twitter,

00:06:14 ◼   ► a lot of people are now,

00:06:15 ◼   ► even more people are not on Twitter,

00:06:18 ◼   ► and not everybody pays for Upgrade Plus.

00:06:21 ◼   ► And you're not shut out of these other ways.

00:06:25 ◼   ► So we realize that just having the Discord is not enough,

00:06:29 ◼   ► and just having Twitter as a vector is not enough,

00:06:33 ◼   ► it never really has been enough,

00:06:35 ◼   ► but we're trying to find a better way to-

00:06:37 ◼   ► - We're gonna have something better.

00:06:38 ◼   ► - Get that stuff in.

00:06:39 ◼   ► - There's a couple of things in it.

00:06:40 ◼   ► we can't really use the way that we pull questions

00:06:43 ◼   ► from Twitter doesn't work on Mastodon

00:06:45 ◼   ► 'cause there isn't like a global search function

00:06:49 ◼   ► in the automation tools that we use,

00:06:51 ◼   ► so we just can't do it.

00:06:53 ◼   ► And if, and what I'll say is like, oh yeah,

00:06:55 ◼   ► I'm not, I'm historically and publicly not a fan of email,

00:06:59 ◼   ► but if you do wanna email a Snail Talk

00:07:02 ◼   ► and ask upgrade questions, go for it,

00:07:04 ◼   ► but please keep them tweet length.

00:07:06 ◼   ► Like, just keep them, one question, you know?

00:07:08 ◼   ► Like that's all I ask.

00:07:10 ◼   ► But yeah, feel free to use that related FM session upgrade.

00:07:14 ◼   ► - But we will get something better

00:07:16 ◼   ► that will hopefully like auto feed into our spreadsheet

00:07:19 ◼   ► and do all of those things.

00:07:20 ◼   ► - It's gonna be awesome.

00:07:21 ◼   ► - We aren't there yet.

00:07:23 ◼   ► - We need a little bit of time for that

00:07:24 ◼   ► because things have been changing rapidly.

00:07:27 ◼   ► Got some follow up.

00:07:30 ◼   ► So you had Sam write in who was on the verticals episode.

00:07:37 ◼   ► - Yeah, Sam Abu El-Samid,

00:07:38 ◼   ► who was one of our vertical guests,

00:07:40 ◼   ► sent a very nice email after our upshift last week.

00:07:43 ◼   ► I feel like we got a lot of it right.

00:07:45 ◼   ► He did point out in another little bit of follow-up

00:07:48 ◼   ► that I'll throw in here,

00:07:49 ◼   ► I kept talking about level four and level five

00:07:52 ◼   ► for levels of self-driving.

00:07:57 ◼   ► And what he said is,

00:07:58 ◼   ► the truth is those are bad definitions

00:08:01 ◼   ► because they're like definitions from computer people

00:08:03 ◼   ► about how this works.

00:08:05 ◼   ► and the way humans and drivers especially think about this

00:08:09 ◼   ► doesn't really map to it very well.

00:08:11 ◼   ► So sometimes I was referring to like full hands,

00:08:15 ◼   ► you know, hands off the steering wheel,

00:08:16 ◼   ► eyes off the road driving as being like level five.

00:08:20 ◼   ► And he said like, technically I think level four,

00:08:22 ◼   ► if it's on a highway, level five on regular streets.

00:08:26 ◼   ► But his point was for most of us,

00:08:27 ◼   ► the best way to think about it is eyes off the road,

00:08:30 ◼   ► hands off the wheel.

00:08:31 ◼   ► Like that level of I don't even need to be looking,

00:08:34 ◼   ► I can be reading my email or watching a movie

00:08:37 ◼   ► and the car will take care of it.

00:08:39 ◼   ► That is the pinnacle.

00:08:41 ◼   ► And then the level down from that is hands on the wheel,

00:08:44 ◼   ► eyes on the road, but it's doing the steering for you.

00:08:47 ◼   ► And so that was good.

00:08:49 ◼   ► It's a complicated subject.

00:08:52 ◼   ► But the other thing that Sam suggested

00:08:54 ◼   ► that I thought was interesting was he said,

00:08:57 ◼   ► "You guys were talking about Apple buying a car company

00:09:02 ◼   ► like Tesla or something like that."

00:09:04 ◼   ► And he pointed out Lucid, which makes the Lucid Air,

00:09:08 ◼   ► which is a shipping electric car

00:09:10 ◼   ► that's in the sort of price range

00:09:12 ◼   ► of what Apple's car is rumored to be.

00:09:14 ◼   ► - And a lot of the reviews are saying

00:09:16 ◼   ► this is like a legit competitor for like the Model S.

00:09:19 ◼   ► People seem to really like this car.

00:09:21 ◼   ► - For the high-end Tesla,

00:09:22 ◼   ► which it shows you the squeeze that the Tesla's facing,

00:09:24 ◼   ► by the way, is that their high-end cars

00:09:26 ◼   ► have competition from companies like Lucid

00:09:29 ◼   ► and their lower-end cars have competition

00:09:32 ◼   ► from all the other car makers,

00:09:34 ◼   ► and then they've got a truck coming out,

00:09:36 ◼   ► but they've missed, you know,

00:09:37 ◼   ► Rivian and Chevy are already out there.

00:09:39 ◼   ► - Ford. - Chevy, no, Ford.

00:09:40 ◼   ► Ford is already out there.

00:09:42 ◼   ► So, yes.

00:09:43 ◼   ► So anyway, Sam suggested, you know, Lucid,

00:09:46 ◼   ► current valuation, like Apple could buy Lucid

00:09:48 ◼   ► with a small portion of the cash that Apple has,

00:09:52 ◼   ► and it's a product that is shipping.

00:09:54 ◼   ► They have cars now, and I'll point out

00:09:57 ◼   ► that just from my own personal connections here,

00:09:59 ◼   ► Their head of PR used to be Apple's head of PR.

00:10:02 ◼   ► And they worked at Apple for a couple decades.

00:10:05 ◼   ► So there's even a connection there.

00:10:07 ◼   ► So, you know, Tim could get on the phone.

00:10:09 ◼   ► So it's interesting 'cause like,

00:10:11 ◼   ► that would be a big move, right?

00:10:12 ◼   ► But, and I do think there's a not invented here

00:10:14 ◼   ► kind of approach, but if Apple really said,

00:10:17 ◼   ► "No, no, no, we're dedicated to be a serious player in cars."

00:10:19 ◼   ► They could, there are,

00:10:20 ◼   ► there's at least one electric car company out there

00:10:22 ◼   ► that's not Tesla that they could also potentially snap up.

00:10:25 ◼   ► - It's complicated though, right?

00:10:27 ◼   ► Because-

00:10:27 ◼   ► And it was started by the guy who designed the Model S, I think.

00:10:32 ◼   ► - Of course. - Yeah.

00:10:33 ◼   ► But like, if Apple roll up and we're buying Lucid,

00:10:37 ◼   ► I mean, you kind of can't ignore it then.

00:10:39 ◼   ► Roll up.

00:10:40 ◼   ► Hey, or like park alongside.

00:10:42 ◼   ► You know what, they can't be like,

00:10:44 ◼   ► "Hey, we're buying this car company.

00:10:46 ◼   ► Forget about what we might be doing with it."

00:10:48 ◼   ► No, then the cat's out of the bag.

00:10:49 ◼   ► Isn't the cat already out of the bag

00:10:51 ◼   ► except for Apple pretending that it's not?

00:10:53 ◼   ► I mean, yeah, but they--

00:10:55 ◼   ► Everybody's talking about it.

00:10:56 ◼   ► Everybody's talking about it,

00:10:57 ◼   ► but they could just say,

00:10:58 ◼   ► "Oh, this whole thing was just for CarPlay."

00:10:59 ◼   ► Like, you know what I mean?

00:11:00 ◼   ► Like, not that they would say that,

00:11:01 ◼   ► but we could be like, you know.

00:11:03 ◼   ► - I'm sure they've talked about it, right?

00:11:04 ◼   ► I'm sure they've had that conversation of,

00:11:06 ◼   ► should we, and they haven't.

00:11:07 ◼   ► - I'm sure they consider buying everything.

00:11:09 ◼   ► You know what, like, why would you, you know,

00:11:11 ◼   ► every time they sit down to start something,

00:11:13 ◼   ► I'm sure there's at least one person around the table

00:11:15 ◼   ► who very rightly says like,

00:11:17 ◼   ► you know, "Okay, we wanna do Apple TV Plus.

00:11:18 ◼   ► Hey, should we buy Netflix?

00:11:19 ◼   ► What do you think?"

00:11:20 ◼   ► You know, that's gotta happen every time.

00:11:22 ◼   ► - Yeah, we wanna make an Apple TV.

00:11:23 ◼   ► Should we buy Roku?

00:11:24 ◼   ► probably said that too, right? Like, and a lot of times the right thing, I mean, it's

00:11:29 ◼   ► not just not invented here syndrome. It's also, um, what do we get out of it? And is

00:11:34 ◼   ► that better than us doing it ourselves? Right? Because sometimes the answer is, uh, they

00:11:40 ◼   ► don't really have anything unique. We could build it too. It's all we'll be buying is

00:11:45 ◼   ► their people and their design and, um, and making it like our own. And at that point

00:11:51 ◼   ► we should do it. It has happened occasionally. Apple Music is a great example where they

00:11:54 ◼   ► use the foundations of beats for that, but it doesn't happen more often than it does.

00:11:59 ◼   ► Apple Music is the perfect example. I also think of Intel's modem division.

00:12:05 ◼   ► Yeah, right. They weren't going to spin up their own, but that one was available when

00:12:10 ◼   ► they took it. Or at least they'd seen nothing from it.

00:12:12 ◼   ► Maybe tried, maybe started, and was like, "You know what? It might be a good idea if

00:12:15 ◼   ► we just acquire all of this." Yeah.

00:12:18 ◼   ► Tim Cook is back on the road, this time he's in Japan.

00:12:21 ◼   ► Tim has been visiting schools, developers,

00:12:23 ◼   ► practicing his golf partying, visiting castles,

00:12:26 ◼   ► meeting Paralympians, seeing music presentations

00:12:28 ◼   ► at Apple stores, meeting the Japanese Prime Minister,

00:12:31 ◼   ► and more.

00:12:32 ◼   ► One notable stop was to visit Sony.

00:12:35 ◼   ► Now the reason this is notable is Tim Cook

00:12:38 ◼   ► publicly references, you know, he posted it on Twitter

00:12:41 ◼   ► and such, that Sony are Apple's partner

00:12:45 ◼   ► for the camera sensors in the iPhone.

00:12:47 ◼   ► This is a thing that we've known about forever,

00:12:49 ◼   ► but they never talk about it.

00:12:51 ◼   ► And I just thought that was an interesting

00:12:53 ◼   ► little thing that happened.

00:12:55 ◼   ► - Yeah, I think it's okay, right?

00:12:57 ◼   ► This is one of those things where Sony is a respected

00:13:00 ◼   ► company and has a respected, so they're like, yeah,

00:13:03 ◼   ► these are our partners for the camera that is in the iPhone

00:13:07 ◼   ► that's amazing and we met with them.

00:13:10 ◼   ► But yeah, there were no, no,

00:13:13 ◼   ► I don't think Eddie came on this one, so.

00:13:15 ◼   ► I know Jaws was there, but I don't think Eddie came

00:13:17 ◼   ► So there's no like lederhosen equivalent for this.

00:13:20 ◼   ► - And this is one of those like perfect photos

00:13:23 ◼   ► that Tim Cook does.

00:13:24 ◼   ► And my favorite is in the Verge article,

00:13:28 ◼   ► they caption this photo,

00:13:30 ◼   ► which is Tim Cook being shown an iPhone.

00:13:33 ◼   ► It's like these images where like someone at Sony

00:13:35 ◼   ► is showing Tim Cook an iPhone,

00:13:37 ◼   ► and Tim is looking at it like he's never seen one before.

00:13:40 ◼   ► - Interesting, interesting.

00:13:42 ◼   ► Hmm, what is this phone?

00:13:43 ◼   ► Where did you get this incredible device?

00:13:48 ◼   ► It has cameras on it?

00:13:50 ◼   ► - Cameras, yeah.

00:13:51 ◼   ► - Wow, I love it, so funny.

00:13:53 ◼   ► - Tim Cook being shown an iPhone.

00:13:56 ◼   ► - Belkin made a mount for continuity camera

00:13:59 ◼   ► for the laptops, right?

00:14:00 ◼   ► So the little thing you clip onto the top

00:14:02 ◼   ► of your laptop screen.

00:14:03 ◼   ► - Yep, I have one in my left hand right now.

00:14:04 ◼   ► - And you could attach your iPhone to it.

00:14:07 ◼   ► And there was a hope that they would make one

00:14:09 ◼   ► for the monitors, for Apple's monitors.

00:14:12 ◼   ► And then it was said that they would,

00:14:13 ◼   ► and now is in the US at least available for ordering.

00:14:17 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's in my right hand right now.

00:14:19 ◼   ► - Tell me what you think about it.

00:14:20 ◼   ► - It's a, I've had a pre-production unit for a while now,

00:14:23 ◼   ► which I've sort of kept a light touch on a little bit

00:14:25 ◼   ► because it's like pre-production, it's not final.

00:14:28 ◼   ► I got the shipping one, it's identical

00:14:29 ◼   ► to the pre-production one I had.

00:14:31 ◼   ► - There you go.

00:14:32 ◼   ► - And I should be clear, it is essentially

00:14:34 ◼   ► a universal MagSafe continuity camera mount.

00:14:37 ◼   ► - Yes, 'cause it's like you can kind of clip it on, right?

00:14:41 ◼   ► I was pretty intrigued about it.

00:14:42 ◼   ► - Yeah, so it's got a flap that comes down

00:14:45 ◼   ► that you put on the front, on the, so, okay.

00:14:49 ◼   ► It's got the horizontal thing.

00:14:50 ◼   ► There's a perpendicular-ish but pivoting magnetic puck.

00:14:54 ◼   ► There is a thing that comes out from that,

00:14:57 ◼   ► perpendicularly, that is a rigid plane

00:15:02 ◼   ► with a little, like, hook at the front of it,

00:15:06 ◼   ► little shelf at the front of it pointing down.

00:15:09 ◼   ► And the idea here is you can,

00:15:11 ◼   ► you put that on the top of your monitor

00:15:13 ◼   ► and the little hook prevents it

00:15:14 ◼   ► from falling off the back, right?

00:15:16 ◼   ► You can actually slide the little MagSafe puck forward

00:15:19 ◼   ► a little bit if you want to, to get a little bit closer.

00:15:21 ◼   ► And then there's a second pivoting thing below

00:15:25 ◼   ► the thing that goes on the top of your monitor.

00:15:27 ◼   ► And that goes on the back, right?

00:15:29 ◼   ► And so you bend it and you end up in a position

00:15:33 ◼   ► where it's basically got,

00:15:35 ◼   ► it's holding on to the front of the monitor

00:15:37 ◼   ► via the little hook thing

00:15:38 ◼   ► and the weight is being put onto the back of the monitor

00:15:41 ◼   ► by the little leg and you've got it.

00:15:44 ◼   ► And it's so deep that it can fit on a very large display

00:15:49 ◼   ► because it's, and it's adjustable.

00:15:52 ◼   ► So it's not one of these like precise fit kind of things.

00:15:54 ◼   ► And that means that it can be available

00:15:56 ◼   ► for all sorts of different displays.

00:15:57 ◼   ► And then that little foot that you put

00:16:01 ◼   ► on the back of the display has a tripod thread in it.

00:16:05 ◼   ► So you can also put it on a tripod and use it that way.

00:16:09 ◼   ► So it's versatile, works pretty well.

00:16:12 ◼   ► If the only thing I'll warn people about,

00:16:14 ◼   ► it's not much of a warning,

00:16:15 ◼   ► but like if you've got a studio display

00:16:16 ◼   ► or something like that,

00:16:17 ◼   ► it's not, like I said,

00:16:21 ◼   ► not custom fit for the studio display.

00:16:23 ◼   ► It's not what it is.

00:16:24 ◼   ► It's more like a universal fit thing.

00:16:26 ◼   ► So it will overhang.

00:16:29 ◼   ► It will, you know, it's much,

00:16:31 ◼   ► the mount is much deeper

00:16:32 ◼   ► than the actual depth of the display,

00:16:35 ◼   ► but that's fine because then you--

00:16:36 ◼   ► - This is better.

00:16:37 ◼   ► This looks like a better product.

00:16:39 ◼   ► - It's good.

00:16:39 ◼   ► It's much more versatile than the one for the MacBooks,

00:16:43 ◼   ► right, which is a very small thing.

00:16:45 ◼   ► This is a much more versatile.

00:16:47 ◼   ► - And I'm assuming that it doesn't make your studio display

00:16:51 ◼   ► fall over, you know?

00:16:52 ◼   ► - It doesn't.

00:16:53 ◼   ► Although it's much heavier than that now,

00:16:55 ◼   ► but it can afford to be.

00:16:58 ◼   ► And then having the tripod thing,

00:16:59 ◼   ► I think is a nice little extra too that you can do.

00:17:01 ◼   ► So if you want to attach a MagSafe phone to a tripod,

00:17:06 ◼   ► it works for that too.

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00:19:05 ◼   ► It's time to mosey on down, partner,

00:19:09 ◼   ► to the rumor roundup.

00:19:11 ◼   ► - Oh, right.

00:19:12 ◼   ► - Got a few little things here.

00:19:13 ◼   ► I've got some display stuff.

00:19:14 ◼   ► So display analyst Ross Young is reporting

00:19:16 ◼   ► that Apple is readying a 15.5 inch MacBook Air

00:19:21 ◼   ► for release in spring of 2023.

00:19:25 ◼   ► Production on the displays for this device

00:19:27 ◼   ► is expected to be occurring in Q1.

00:19:30 ◼   ► So then this would launch a little later on.

00:19:33 ◼   ► This product is expected to be a larger version

00:19:36 ◼   ► of the current M2 Air, right?

00:19:39 ◼   ► So.

00:19:40 ◼   ► - Yeah, so 15.5 inch MacBook Air.

00:19:42 ◼   ► I think this is great.

00:19:44 ◼   ► I just wrote about this for, you know, my year,

00:19:48 ◼   ► my preview basically of next year for Mac world.

00:19:50 ◼   ► And I know we've talked about it here too.

00:19:53 ◼   ► The idea that Apple's most popular Mac

00:19:57 ◼   ► only comes in one version.

00:20:02 ◼   ► I mean, two, if you count that the old version

00:20:04 ◼   ► is still for sale and they're both 13 inch laptops.

00:20:09 ◼   ► So there's a lot, like the MacBook Air could,

00:20:13 ◼   ► and then if you want a bigger one,

00:20:15 ◼   ► you've got to buy a MacBook Pro, which seems like,

00:20:19 ◼   ► And we know where those start at, right?

00:20:20 ◼   ► Those are, leaving that weird 13-inch model aside,

00:20:24 ◼   ► like now you're up at $2,000.

00:20:26 ◼   ► So creating a, I don't know, $1,500, $1,600,

00:20:30 ◼   ► somewhere in there, a big MacBook Air,

00:20:33 ◼   ► I think it's incredibly smart

00:20:36 ◼   ► because the Air is incredibly popular.

00:20:38 ◼   ► People who might want more screen space

00:20:41 ◼   ► don't necessarily wanna buy a pro laptop.

00:20:43 ◼   ► And so why make them?

00:20:45 ◼   ► Why make them do that?

00:20:46 ◼   ► - There is such a huge price delta

00:20:49 ◼   ► between the Air and the MacBook Pro.

00:20:52 ◼   ► - And I know the answer is gonna be,

00:20:53 ◼   ► well, you make them 'cause they pay more,

00:20:55 ◼   ► but I would argue that they won't pay more.

00:20:56 ◼   ► I would argue that most of those people

00:20:58 ◼   ► will just get the MacBook Air then.

00:21:00 ◼   ► But you might be able to convert a certain number

00:21:03 ◼   ► of the MacBook Air people to pay more

00:21:05 ◼   ► for a larger MacBook Air,

00:21:06 ◼   ► and I don't think that it's gonna result

00:21:08 ◼   ► in a lot of lost sales for the MacBook Pro

00:21:10 ◼   ► now that the MacBook Pro is so expensive.

00:21:12 ◼   ► - Yep, like to get anything bigger than 13 inches,

00:21:15 ◼   ► it starts at $2,000.

00:21:17 ◼   ► - Yeah, and that's the beginning, right?

00:21:19 ◼   ► That's just the base model.

00:21:21 ◼   ► So yes, I think this is a great idea.

00:21:25 ◼   ► In the past, Apple has had this,

00:21:26 ◼   ► they used to have a big MacBook and all of that.

00:21:28 ◼   ► And I would imagine thinking about the design

00:21:31 ◼   ► of the 13 inch MacBook Air, the M2,

00:21:33 ◼   ► that this'll be still pretty thin and pretty light,

00:21:38 ◼   ► but with a much larger display.

00:21:41 ◼   ► And I think display size is not like,

00:21:44 ◼   ► Okay, here's my nutshell argument about this is,

00:21:47 ◼   ► one, the M2 is so powerful that almost nobody needs

00:21:51 ◼   ► an M2 Pro or an M2 Max when those come out,

00:21:54 ◼   ► or even the M1 Pro and Max.

00:21:55 ◼   ► Like almost nobody actually needs it.

00:21:58 ◼   ► It's so powerful.

00:22:00 ◼   ► Yes, it would, you know, there's stuff that I do

00:22:02 ◼   ► that would be slower, but like almost nobody needs it.

00:22:05 ◼   ► And we've talked about it here, like we love it,

00:22:07 ◼   ► even though it might be slower for a few things,

00:22:09 ◼   ► like it's fine, it's great.

00:22:12 ◼   ► So that's number one.

00:22:14 ◼   ► And number two is they don't need screen size

00:22:17 ◼   ► and processor power to be differentiators

00:22:20 ◼   ► to sell MacBook Pros anyway.

00:22:22 ◼   ► I feel like the number one reason,

00:22:24 ◼   ► sure, everybody who needs the processor power

00:22:25 ◼   ► will get a MacBook Pro,

00:22:26 ◼   ► but the number one reason you get a MacBook Pro now

00:22:28 ◼   ► is the other stuff.

00:22:31 ◼   ► It's ports and ProMotion and super bright display

00:22:36 ◼   ► that's super HDR, right?

00:22:40 ◼   ► Like those are the reasons, right?

00:22:43 ◼   ► it's all the other niceties that are not on the Air

00:22:46 ◼   ► that are the reason you do that upgrade, plus the power.

00:22:49 ◼   ► Like there's plenty of differentiation there.

00:22:51 ◼   ► So I think they can make a larger MacBook Air screen

00:22:55 ◼   ► and it's not gonna hurt the MacBook Pro,

00:22:56 ◼   ► but I think it's gonna make them a lot of money

00:22:58 ◼   ► from people who are buying larger screen.

00:23:01 ◼   ► - If the MacBook Air is truly as popular

00:23:04 ◼   ► and like takes as much of the market as Apple says it does,

00:23:09 ◼   ► then they should apply the iPhone thinking to it, right?

00:23:12 ◼   ► like make the popular one bigger as well.

00:23:16 ◼   ► And like, hey, maybe it will be people will be like,

00:23:19 ◼   ► well, I want to get a MacBook Air

00:23:21 ◼   ► because it's the one that's the starting price

00:23:23 ◼   ► and it's the one that people get

00:23:24 ◼   ► and I don't need a MacBook Pro.

00:23:26 ◼   ► Oh, and hey, I could spend an extra $200

00:23:28 ◼   ► and get a bigger one, I'll do that.

00:23:31 ◼   ► And like, that's what they're going to go for, right?

00:23:32 ◼   ► That's what this product's for.

00:23:33 ◼   ► It's for that purchasing decision that people might go on.

00:23:37 ◼   ► So yeah, I think this is an interesting idea

00:23:40 ◼   ► And I'd like to see them do more with the MacBook Air

00:23:43 ◼   ► 'cause I think that the MacBook Air is fantastic

00:23:47 ◼   ► and more Macs, more Macs.

00:23:50 ◼   ► - And it actually kind of fits in with the iPhone

00:23:54 ◼   ► or the iPad when you think about it, right?

00:23:55 ◼   ► Like that there's, in that case, there's base model

00:23:58 ◼   ► and then there's Air and there's Pro.

00:24:00 ◼   ► So you have Air and Pro leaves, you know,

00:24:04 ◼   ► leaves the door open for a MacBook down the road.

00:24:07 ◼   ► But there's a question in the Discord about

00:24:09 ◼   ► why don't I just call it MacBook then?

00:24:12 ◼   ► And the answer is,

00:24:13 ◼   ► 'cause MacBook Air is a popular product.

00:24:14 ◼   ► It's their most popular product.

00:24:16 ◼   ► That's the name of it.

00:24:16 ◼   ► Why would you change the name of it?

00:24:18 ◼   ► In fact, they sort of tried that and it didn't work.

00:24:20 ◼   ► Like this is, you go with what works.

00:24:22 ◼   ► It's like why it's called iPhone,

00:24:24 ◼   ► even though it should be called Apple phone now.

00:24:26 ◼   ► It's because everybody knows it's the iPhone.

00:24:28 ◼   ► It's the most popular product.

00:24:30 ◼   ► They're not gonna change the name.

00:24:31 ◼   ► MacBook Air, they're not gonna change the name.

00:24:33 ◼   ► - Yeah, I think you're right.

00:24:34 ◼   ► I would like them to just call it MacBook,

00:24:36 ◼   ► but the MacBook Air, it's a powerful brand.

00:24:40 ◼   ► - I mean, the 15.5 could be called MacBook

00:24:42 ◼   ► or it could be called MacBook Plus,

00:24:44 ◼   ► or it could be, I mean, they could call it something else.

00:24:46 ◼   ► - They could.

00:24:47 ◼   ► - But I will take this from Ross Young though.

00:24:50 ◼   ► Whatever they call it, I think it will be functionally

00:24:56 ◼   ► a 15.5 inch version of the M2 MacBook Air, right?

00:24:59 ◼   ► Like that's what it'll be, whatever they call it.

00:25:03 ◼   ► But MacBook Air is a nice name

00:25:04 ◼   ► and it allows them to say, "We have two sizes."

00:25:06 ◼   ► and that's really convenient rather than saying,

00:25:08 ◼   ► "We have another confusing product

00:25:10 ◼   ► "in the middle of these other two products

00:25:12 ◼   ► "that are already a little confusing."

00:25:14 ◼   ► And so why not keep it simple and say,

00:25:15 ◼   ► "We've got MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, MacBook Air."

00:25:18 ◼   ► They're all the same except for the size,

00:25:21 ◼   ► same specs, same options.

00:25:23 ◼   ► That's better, that's clearer than adding.

00:25:26 ◼   ► So I can see why people might say,

00:25:29 ◼   ► "Doesn't this add complexity?"

00:25:30 ◼   ► I would say it doesn't if they're basically the same

00:25:33 ◼   ► except for the size, you should name them the same thing.

00:25:36 ◼   ► - Young is also updating an existing report

00:25:38 ◼   ► to say that he now expects Apple to switch to OLED panels

00:25:42 ◼   ► for the MacBook Air and iPad Pros in 2024.

00:25:46 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:25:47 ◼   ► - 2024 is probably the time we'd next expect an update

00:25:52 ◼   ► to the iPad Pro line anyway.

00:25:54 ◼   ► - Right, 18 months cycle.

00:25:56 ◼   ► So spring of '24 and then OLED MacBook Air in '24.

00:26:01 ◼   ► OLED MacBook Air is interesting, right?

00:26:05 ◼   ► Because what about the MacBook Pro?

00:26:07 ◼   ► - Well, it's already on Mini-LED.

00:26:08 ◼   ► They already took a step, right?

00:26:10 ◼   ► So I imagine they start to upgrade the displays

00:26:14 ◼   ► in all of the products,

00:26:16 ◼   ► and if one of them's already got a good one,

00:26:18 ◼   ► it's different, OLED's different,

00:26:20 ◼   ► it's better in some ways or whatever,

00:26:22 ◼   ► then you do the MacBook Air,

00:26:24 ◼   ► and then you come around to the MacBook Pro.

00:26:26 ◼   ► Because the MacBook Pro is going to be updated

00:26:31 ◼   ► between now and then,

00:26:33 ◼   ► And if that's on an 18-month cycle,

00:26:35 ◼   ► then that's also got a slot in.

00:26:37 ◼   ► Like, there was a -- it wasn't originally in the rumor roundup,

00:26:40 ◼   ► but I see a rumor over there,

00:26:41 ◼   ► and I'm throwing a lasso around it,

00:26:43 ◼   ► and I'm going to bring it in. -Okay. Bring it in.

00:26:45 ◼   ► -Which was that Mark Gurman was suggesting

00:26:46 ◼   ► that there would be new MacBook Pro models in early 2023

00:26:51 ◼   ► with new chips in it, most likely.

00:26:52 ◼   ► Probably not much of a difference.

00:26:54 ◼   ► But then, you know, then where's that --

00:26:57 ◼   ► the next one, if it was going to get OLED,

00:26:59 ◼   ► that's now got a slot back in, and, you know --

00:27:01 ◼   ► you see what I mean?

00:27:02 ◼   ► Like this is like where it's gonna hit.

00:27:04 ◼   ► - My only question is sort of the larger angle

00:27:06 ◼   ► about how Apple views what should be on displays, right?

00:27:09 ◼   ► Because the OLED, like on iPad Pros suggest

00:27:14 ◼   ► that they think that OLED is superior

00:27:17 ◼   ► to the mini LED they're using now.

00:27:19 ◼   ► And it is in some ways, right?

00:27:20 ◼   ► Because it doesn't have the little small,

00:27:24 ◼   ► they're small, but there are still illumination zones.

00:27:26 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's blooming.

00:27:27 ◼   ► - And every pixel is its own.

00:27:29 ◼   ► But there's also the rumor that they're working

00:27:30 ◼   ► on like a micro LED thing and all that.

00:27:32 ◼   ► I think it's funny 'cause OLED seems premium

00:27:34 ◼   ► and so if the MacBook Air ends up with a,

00:27:36 ◼   ► for a little while with a better screen

00:27:39 ◼   ► than the MacBook Pro, that's a little bit weird,

00:27:41 ◼   ► but Apple does that sometimes, things are out of sync.

00:27:44 ◼   ► - Look at the iPad 10th generation, you know what I mean?

00:27:48 ◼   ► - Yeah, no, I just wonder what their overall strategy is

00:27:51 ◼   ► for the MacBook Pro then in terms of what display,

00:27:54 ◼   ► is it like better OLED or is it micro LED

00:27:58 ◼   ► or is it something else?

00:27:59 ◼   ► 'cause you will want to get the MacBook Pros

00:28:01 ◼   ► then to leapfrog the MacBook Air at some point.

00:28:04 ◼   ► - I think in the last couple of years,

00:28:06 ◼   ► they have stumbled with displays.

00:28:09 ◼   ► I think that they are working

00:28:12 ◼   ► on too many display technologies at once.

00:28:16 ◼   ► And it seems like Apple's unable to decide

00:28:19 ◼   ► which one is the best.

00:28:21 ◼   ► - I think they're in between technologies.

00:28:23 ◼   ► I agree.

00:28:24 ◼   ► I think OLED has issues and micro LED

00:28:26 ◼   ► has those blooming issues.

00:28:28 ◼   ► or mini LED, and they're going toward micro LED,

00:28:33 ◼   ► and I think they don't even know, right?

00:28:34 ◼   ► Like what's gonna be the best solution for them?

00:28:36 ◼   ► Or at least a year or two ago,

00:28:38 ◼   ► when they were starting to do this, go down this path,

00:28:40 ◼   ► they were unclear and maybe hedging.

00:28:42 ◼   ► Like is the best solution going to be very,

00:28:45 ◼   ► very small backlight on LED, or is it going to be OLED?

00:28:50 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:28:52 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:28:52 ◼   ► That is probably above my pay grade.

00:28:54 ◼   ► But it's interesting to see that that's where they're going.

00:28:57 ◼   ► and I think that that's a, you can see the iPad Pro product,

00:29:01 ◼   ► like when's the next iPad Pro?

00:29:03 ◼   ► It's like the answer is 18 months, right?

00:29:05 ◼   ► It's gonna be 18 months again,

00:29:06 ◼   ► which means it's spring of '24, so more than a year.

00:29:10 ◼   ► That makes sense.

00:29:11 ◼   ► I do have a, I'll just throw it out here as a wild idea.

00:29:16 ◼   ► I think the one thing that might happen

00:29:18 ◼   ► in the iPad line next year that might be interesting

00:29:21 ◼   ► is there were those rumors about a larger iPad Pro.

00:29:24 ◼   ► - Oh yeah.

00:29:25 ◼   ► - That's a product they could release

00:29:26 ◼   ► without updating the other iPad Pros.

00:29:28 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:29:29 ◼   ► - So maybe there could be like a, you know,

00:29:32 ◼   ► mega 15 inch, whatever, iPad Pro or iPad Studio

00:29:35 ◼   ► or something that comes out next fall or something like that.

00:29:38 ◼   ► But I don't expect the existing iPad Pros

00:29:41 ◼   ► to get an update next year.

00:29:43 ◼   ► - Mark Gurman had a report about the Mac Pro,

00:29:46 ◼   ► which is a product that we haven't,

00:29:48 ◼   ► that we should have, we were expecting to hear--

00:29:49 ◼   ► - It's like the Loch Ness Monster.

00:29:51 ◼   ► - More about by now, right?

00:29:52 ◼   ► They gave a little wink to us at WWDC, I think it was.

00:29:56 ◼   ► - It's WDC.

00:29:57 ◼   ► - Yeah, we're almost done,

00:29:59 ◼   ► but the Mac Pro's still out there, wink.

00:30:01 ◼   ► - Wink, wink, wink.

00:30:03 ◼   ► But we haven't got it.

00:30:05 ◼   ► So then Mark Gurman is saying that Apple

00:30:07 ◼   ► still has the Mac Pro in development,

00:30:09 ◼   ► that they are still testing and adapting

00:30:11 ◼   ► and changing the product.

00:30:13 ◼   ► One of the big changes is it is now unlikely

00:30:15 ◼   ► to have a higher end chip than the Ultra.

00:30:18 ◼   ► So we've got M2 Ultra,

00:30:20 ◼   ► and then there was expected something

00:30:22 ◼   ► maybe like the M2 Extreme,

00:30:23 ◼   ► a bigger, badder, beefier processor than even what was in the M2 Ultra and stuff like that.

00:30:33 ◼   ► Mark is now suggesting that the Mac Pro will top out whatever the current biggest chip

00:30:38 ◼   ► is. So if it's the M2 Ultra, M3 Ultra or whatever, that's what it's going to get. They're not

00:30:43 ◼   ► going to create a chip just for this device, which I think is a good idea. I don't think

00:30:49 ◼   ► it makes sense to make a chip specifically for this device unless you really need it,

00:30:55 ◼   ► which they definitely don't.

00:30:56 ◼   ► Mark's report is really interesting because, and I think this is probably a conversation

00:31:02 ◼   ► that's happening inside Apple, which is, does the Mac Pro make sense at all?

00:31:08 ◼   ► Mm-hmm.

00:31:09 ◼   ► Right?

00:31:10 ◼   ► Like what he's saying is, okay, the Mac Studio with the Ultra is already five grand.

00:31:14 ◼   ► So now you're talking $10,000 for a Mac Pro.

00:31:17 ◼   ► And what do you get for that?

00:31:18 ◼   ► Well, you're not even getting the four times chip,

00:31:21 ◼   ► you're getting the ultra.

00:31:22 ◼   ► So it's Mac studio level performance essentially.

00:31:27 ◼   ► Okay, which is great, it's the fastest Mac ever, great.

00:31:30 ◼   ► And expandability, which is good and people need it.

00:31:35 ◼   ► But his point is also how many people really need it.

00:31:38 ◼   ► And this is, I know this has been the Mac Pro conversation

00:31:40 ◼   ► for a decade now, if not two decades,

00:31:42 ◼   ► which is, it is not ever gonna ship in volume.

00:31:48 ◼   ► it's just never gonna do it.

00:31:49 ◼   ► Especially, there was a time when the Pro Max

00:31:51 ◼   ► were like the go-to max for lots of power users,

00:31:54 ◼   ► but that time is long gone.

00:31:56 ◼   ► It's a very, very high-end computer.

00:31:59 ◼   ► And who, like justifying it based on the sales,

00:32:04 ◼   ► you're never gonna be able to do.

00:32:06 ◼   ► So it becomes much more of a statement,

00:32:08 ◼   ► which is we admit that we care,

00:32:11 ◼   ► like they did in that famous round table way back when,

00:32:14 ◼   ► We admit that we care about the highest end users,

00:32:19 ◼   ► so we're gonna make this product.

00:32:21 ◼   ► But I can see people on the inside at Apple

00:32:24 ◼   ► who look at it and go,

00:32:25 ◼   ► "Boy, we are spending a lot of engineering time

00:32:28 ◼   ► on this thing, on adding this expansion stuff

00:32:31 ◼   ► that has never been in the Mac before."

00:32:33 ◼   ► And maybe, or never been an Apple Silicon before.

00:32:37 ◼   ► And maybe it'll benefit the platform in other areas,

00:32:40 ◼   ► but it sure feels like a lot of the stuff

00:32:42 ◼   ► is just for this Mac Pro and nobody's gonna buy it.

00:32:44 ◼   ► It's gonna be like a few thousand people buy it or whatever

00:32:47 ◼   ► and it's not gonna be ever worth the amount of time

00:32:50 ◼   ► we put into it.

00:32:52 ◼   ► And now on top of that, it's not even gonna have

00:32:55 ◼   ► that extra chip benefit of being twice as fast

00:32:57 ◼   ► as the Mac Studio.

00:32:58 ◼   ► So the benefits are gonna be expansion.

00:33:02 ◼   ► And Germin did reinforce, I think something

00:33:04 ◼   ► that we all wondered about with Apple Silicon,

00:33:06 ◼   ► which is they expect it to be expandable.

00:33:10 ◼   ► And he specifically says, "Additional memory,

00:33:12 ◼   ► "storage, and other components."

00:33:14 ◼   ► So it'll be an Apple Silicon Mac you can add memory to,

00:33:18 ◼   ► and you can add storage to on the inside,

00:33:21 ◼   ► which storage isn't as much a thing as memory.

00:33:24 ◼   ► He doesn't say graphics, by the way,

00:33:26 ◼   ► but other components, probably like networking,

00:33:29 ◼   ► and maybe there'll be something like

00:33:30 ◼   ► the equivalent of an afterburner card in there

00:33:32 ◼   ► to boost performance.

00:33:34 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:33:35 ◼   ► I mean, I do wonder if that might be the reason

00:33:37 ◼   ► that they're not gonna do a 4X Ultra

00:33:41 ◼   ► is that maybe they'll have like a plugin card

00:33:44 ◼   ► that has another Ultra on it

00:33:47 ◼   ► that will be addressable in some way.

00:33:48 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:33:50 ◼   ► But I just found it fascinating

00:33:51 ◼   ► that I get through Mark Gurman's report

00:33:54 ◼   ► the sense that inside Apple,

00:33:56 ◼   ► there's an admission that this product

00:33:58 ◼   ► is more of an idealized product than a product

00:34:02 ◼   ► and they're putting money into it.

00:34:03 ◼   ► And it's like, but nobody's gonna buy it

00:34:06 ◼   ► because it's gonna be incredibly expensive.

00:34:08 ◼   ► And that's the story of the Mac Pro all along, it really is.

00:34:10 ◼   ► Like it's a product that I do think needs to exist

00:34:13 ◼   ► and there are definitely customers for it.

00:34:16 ◼   ► But I also understand that if you penciled it out

00:34:18 ◼   ► inside Apple, it doesn't make sense.

00:34:20 ◼   ► Whereas something like back in the day, that iMac Pro

00:34:23 ◼   ► and more currently the Mac Studio actually fits in better.

00:34:28 ◼   ► - The Mac Studio is continued and is I think taken

00:34:32 ◼   ► a huge bite out of the potential addressable market

00:34:36 ◼   ► for the Mac Pro.

00:34:37 ◼   ► And I think Apple knows this, right?

00:34:39 ◼   ► And it might be why they're doing a bit more work on it.

00:34:41 ◼   ► Like really trying to make, if they're going to do this,

00:34:43 ◼   ► make this statement machine that they're going to do it

00:34:46 ◼   ► for a reason and it's going to have a point to it.

00:34:48 ◼   ► And it's like, you know, Mark says in his piece that like,

00:34:51 ◼   ► probably going to start at 10 grand,

00:34:53 ◼   ► which I think makes sense now again, right?

00:34:55 ◼   ► Because like the studio sitting right there for you,

00:34:58 ◼   ► it's right there, you know?

00:35:00 ◼   ► Yeah, so you're paying for this larger thing.

00:35:03 ◼   ► And they're going down the road.

00:35:04 ◼   ► I mean, they kind of promised and they kind of need to do it

00:35:07 ◼   ► and maybe it will have benefits.

00:35:09 ◼   ► But it is fascinating 'cause I feel like we're getting

00:35:12 ◼   ► that Mac Pro, iMac Pro story all over again

00:35:15 ◼   ► with the Mac Studio and this Apple Silicon Mac Pro

00:35:18 ◼   ► where there's Apple behaving as Apple doing the math

00:35:23 ◼   ► and saying, well, here you go.

00:35:25 ◼   ► Here's an incredibly powerful computer

00:35:27 ◼   ► with no internal expansion, because we don't do that,

00:35:30 ◼   ► go to town, and that's the Mac studio.

00:35:32 ◼   ► And then there's Apple being the company that has,

00:35:36 ◼   ► you know, it's making a, it's a legacy computer platform,

00:35:39 ◼   ► and people who've been using computers a long time

00:35:41 ◼   ► really do demand tower computers with extra storage,

00:35:43 ◼   ► and et cetera, et cetera, right?

00:35:44 ◼   ► Like there's a whole story about it.

00:35:46 ◼   ► Listen to every episode of ATP for the last 10 years,

00:35:49 ◼   ► or whatever, however long they've been going,

00:35:51 ◼   ► since episode one, one to present,

00:35:53 ◼   ► to hear that whole story writ large.

00:35:55 ◼   ► but they do exist, but it's one of those things that like,

00:35:58 ◼   ► it's not, I think it's not logical.

00:36:00 ◼   ► It doesn't make business sense,

00:36:02 ◼   ► but it's almost like they have to do it

00:36:03 ◼   ► because they're the steward of the platform

00:36:05 ◼   ► and their platform needs to have it.

00:36:07 ◼   ► But all that conflict plays out in this report

00:36:12 ◼   ► from Mark Gurman.

00:36:13 ◼   ► It really is right there, which is like,

00:36:15 ◼   ► this product kind of doesn't make sense

00:36:16 ◼   ► and nobody's gonna buy it, but we're gonna do it.

00:36:19 ◼   ► And like, okay, I actually, my frustration will be

00:36:22 ◼   ► if they do it and don't ever update the Mac Studio again,

00:36:25 ◼   ► 'cause I think the Mac Studio is for most,

00:36:28 ◼   ► even most high-end users a better choice

00:36:31 ◼   ► because most people don't need what a Mac Pro delivers.

00:36:34 ◼   ► But I think they've decided culturally

00:36:36 ◼   ► that they just gotta do it.

00:36:37 ◼   ► They gotta have that tower computer

00:36:39 ◼   ► at the top of the product line.

00:36:40 ◼   ► - No, I think the studio is gonna get a lot of love.

00:36:43 ◼   ► I mean, I imagine that like they'll do this Mac Pro,

00:36:46 ◼   ► however they do it,

00:36:47 ◼   ► and then they do very little to it ever again.

00:36:50 ◼   ► - Well, I think there's an argument

00:36:53 ◼   ► that once you've created one of these computers

00:36:55 ◼   ► based on Apple Silicon,

00:36:57 ◼   ► that there's not a lot more they need to do

00:37:00 ◼   ► for years and years and years, right?

00:37:02 ◼   ► So once they've got a Mac Studio and a Mac Pro,

00:37:04 ◼   ► you know, you update the chips, right?

00:37:07 ◼   ► Like you could ride on that for a long time.

00:37:09 ◼   ► And the beauty of it is, since they designed the chips,

00:37:12 ◼   ► they can probably keep, unlike previous Mac Pros,

00:37:15 ◼   ► they can probably keep doing revisions

00:37:17 ◼   ► that drop in a new Apple Silicon processor

00:37:20 ◼   ► every 18 months or two years.

00:37:23 ◼   ► - They can control its physical size,

00:37:25 ◼   ► they can control its capabilities and requirements,

00:37:27 ◼   ► like they have the ability to do all that.

00:37:29 ◼   ► - And they can keep an eye

00:37:30 ◼   ► when they're doing their chip design,

00:37:31 ◼   ► they can keep an eye on the Mac Pro and be like,

00:37:33 ◼   ► "We also needed to go in the Mac Pro."

00:37:35 ◼   ► And it's like, okay, we can, and the Mac Studio,

00:37:37 ◼   ► it's like, we can do that.

00:37:39 ◼   ► So it might be a better situation,

00:37:40 ◼   ► but I do think you're right that like,

00:37:43 ◼   ► there is, I think the counterargument

00:37:44 ◼   ► that like we have to do this is,

00:37:46 ◼   ► look, we only have to do this once.

00:37:48 ◼   ► And then we just keep it out there.

00:37:50 ◼   ► - Yeah, I mentioned presentation a couple of months

00:37:52 ◼   ► and John Ternus is on stage and he's like,

00:37:53 ◼   ► "Here's the new Mac Mini.

00:37:55 ◼   ► Wait, what did you think I was talking about?"

00:37:57 ◼   ► - Yeah. - You know?

00:37:58 ◼   ► When I said I had one left, it was this Mac Mini.

00:38:01 ◼   ► - It's the Mac Mini. - We've done the Mac Mini now.

00:38:03 ◼   ► - Done, job's done. - He said it by name though.

00:38:06 ◼   ► So I do-- - Did he?

00:38:08 ◼   ► - Remember the, yeah, they said,

00:38:10 ◼   ► we still got the Mac Pro, but more about that later.

00:38:12 ◼   ► It was something like that.

00:38:13 ◼   ► They actually did say that.

00:38:14 ◼   ► But here's the other thing I wonder sometimes

00:38:17 ◼   ► is Mark Gurman has had that, you know,

00:38:19 ◼   ► the new Mac Pro is gonna be a tall Mac Mini rumor

00:38:22 ◼   ► and also there was the new Mac Pro

00:38:23 ◼   ► is gonna be a short Mac Pro rumor.

00:38:25 ◼   ► And it turns out that he was talking about the Mac Studio

00:38:27 ◼   ► and the Mac Pro.

00:38:28 ◼   ► There is part of me that wonders though, even now,

00:38:32 ◼   ► if the Mac Studio was like,

00:38:34 ◼   ► people were like trying to slide that in there

00:38:35 ◼   ► and say, "No, this is the Mac Pro."

00:38:37 ◼   ► And then they're like, "No, we're still gonna do the Mac Pro,

00:38:40 ◼   ► but we also did the Mac Studio."

00:38:42 ◼   ► I don't know, I can't wait to see how this plays out

00:38:43 ◼   ► and what the details are.

00:38:45 ◼   ► But I think that Gurman is making a point that is real

00:38:49 ◼   ► and that people inside Apple have to know,

00:38:51 ◼   ► which is just like the Mac Pro is an awesome top

00:38:56 ◼   ► of the line thing to mark the prowess

00:39:00 ◼   ► of the Mac platform or whatever.

00:39:02 ◼   ► But it's hard to imagine a scenario

00:39:06 ◼   ► where it actually pencils out in terms

00:39:08 ◼   ► of how much effort they put into it,

00:39:11 ◼   ► what they'll get out in sales.

00:39:13 ◼   ► The only way you can make sense of it is to say,

00:39:15 ◼   ► you need to do it because otherwise certain classes

00:39:18 ◼   ► of user and company will abandon the platform if you don't offer it. And they're mostly

00:39:24 ◼   ► not buying it, they're buying other things, but they're also buying that. And if you don't

00:39:28 ◼   ► offer it, then they're not going to buy any of our other things as well. And that's probably

00:39:32 ◼   ► the strongest argument I can make here. And the second strongest argument is, "Look, the

00:39:36 ◼   ► stuff we are doing for the Mac Pro is going to benefit the whole Mac line, or at least

00:39:39 ◼   ► the high-end Mac line, we'll work it out." Canceling that four processor variant, though,

00:39:46 ◼   ► That is a sign of them saying, "Mm, that's a lot of effort."

00:39:50 ◼   ► - We don't need to get that specific.

00:39:52 ◼   ► - And that, can you imagine that that requires

00:39:55 ◼   ► all four of those chips on the, like,

00:39:58 ◼   ► together to be without flaw?

00:40:01 ◼   ► And like, that's gotta cost a fortune, right?

00:40:03 ◼   ► Like, that configuration would cost a fortune.

00:40:07 ◼   ► So I can see why they'd throw it away and be like,

00:40:09 ◼   ► "No, it's not worth it, we're not gonna do it."

00:40:12 ◼   ► - Dylan Byers of Puck News reports

00:40:14 ◼   ► that Apple has exited discussions for NFL Sunday Ticket.

00:40:18 ◼   ► Quote, "I'm now told that Apple,

00:40:21 ◼   ► once seen as a front runner for the rights,

00:40:23 ◼   ► has also backed out of those negotiations,

00:40:26 ◼   ► not because they can't afford it,

00:40:27 ◼   ► but because they don't see the logic.

00:40:29 ◼   ► So it's down to Amazon and Google,

00:40:31 ◼   ► and there's certainly a logic there for both companies.

00:40:34 ◼   ► Amazon can use it to drive Prime subscriptions.

00:40:36 ◼   ► Google can use it to fuel its YouTube TV business."

00:40:40 ◼   ► I want to ask you, Jason,

00:40:42 ◼   ► I mean, I struggle with this one a little bit

00:40:44 ◼   ► because I mean, there is, of course there's a logic to,

00:40:48 ◼   ► I mean, isn't the logic to Apple

00:40:50 ◼   ► the same as it is to Amazon and Google?

00:40:51 ◼   ► Like looking at this example from buyers?

00:40:55 ◼   ► - I don't, yeah, I don't agree with his statement

00:40:58 ◼   ► about the logic because I think that Amazon's

00:40:59 ◼   ► using the same logic as Apple.

00:41:01 ◼   ► Now there is, in the context here, I think, I think--

00:41:04 ◼   ► - I think I see the point, but not with those examples.

00:41:07 ◼   ► - There was also a, well, yes, exactly.

00:41:09 ◼   ► So there was also a report

00:41:11 ◼   ► that what Apple was really pitching,

00:41:13 ◼   ► there was a report that Apple was pitching

00:41:14 ◼   ► that it would be free for people who are TV+ subscribers,

00:41:17 ◼   ► which also doesn't make any sense

00:41:19 ◼   ► given what they're doing with MLS.

00:41:20 ◼   ► This was never gonna be free for TV+ subscribers.

00:41:23 ◼   ► This was gonna be an add-on,

00:41:25 ◼   ► just like the MLS thing is an add-on.

00:41:28 ◼   ► - Neither would it be like worldwide.

00:41:30 ◼   ► And I kind of imagine they probably wanted

00:41:34 ◼   ► a similar arrangement to what they have

00:41:36 ◼   ► with Major League Soccer in its availability,

00:41:40 ◼   ► its simplicity and the NFL was not willing to give that.

00:41:43 ◼   ► - None of that was gonna happen.

00:41:44 ◼   ► And this is what I think is the bottom line here

00:41:47 ◼   ► is that the NFL, again, for international listeners,

00:41:51 ◼   ► trust me, the NFL is the most successful

00:41:54 ◼   ► entertainment operation in America.

00:41:56 ◼   ► I mean, the highest rated TV show in America

00:42:00 ◼   ► for the last decade plus has been a football game.

00:42:03 ◼   ► They're huge.

00:42:04 ◼   ► They have all the power.

00:42:06 ◼   ► This is the weirdest and worst of their rights packages

00:42:11 ◼   ► because it is a product that was built for a different era

00:42:16 ◼   ► but still exists.

00:42:17 ◼   ► And the carve-outs and the contracts are all dating

00:42:21 ◼   ► from that previous era.

00:42:22 ◼   ► And Apple very clearly based on the reports

00:42:24 ◼   ► that we've gotten has been trying to push the NFL

00:42:27 ◼   ► to change the product.

00:42:28 ◼   ► The NFL doesn't wanna change the product.

00:42:31 ◼   ► And I think it can't change the product

00:42:33 ◼   ► because this is the last rights deal in this cycle

00:42:36 ◼   ► to be signed, which means that maybe over the next five

00:42:40 ◼   ► years Apple could work with the NFL to come up with

00:42:43 ◼   ► a strategy for a product that would replace Sunday ticket

00:42:46 ◼   ► that would be more amenable to them.

00:42:48 ◼   ► But if you're the NFL, if you're gonna go through

00:42:51 ◼   ► all that effort, maybe you keep that money for yourself

00:42:52 ◼   ► and don't even have a partner for it in five years.

00:42:55 ◼   ► So the NFL really just wants somebody to pony up

00:42:59 ◼   ► more money than it's worth in order to, you know,

00:43:02 ◼   ► for ulterior motive reasons to get this product

00:43:06 ◼   ► that was really kind of built for DirecTV.

00:43:09 ◼   ► And it's US only, and it's got all these limitations

00:43:13 ◼   ► of like not your local markets,

00:43:15 ◼   ► you need another product for that.

00:43:16 ◼   ► There's all of this stuff to it.

00:43:18 ◼   ► So I would argue it never made sense

00:43:22 ◼   ► purely from an Apple strategy perspective.

00:43:24 ◼   ► The only reason you do it is you've got all the money

00:43:28 ◼   ► and it gets you in the door with the NFL

00:43:30 ◼   ► and you're interested in sports as a way

00:43:32 ◼   ► to drive people into your platform.

00:43:34 ◼   ► So on that level, I think engaging with the NFL makes sense.

00:43:39 ◼   ► I think where maybe the breakdown in communication was

00:43:43 ◼   ► is I think Apple, I've said this on this podcast

00:43:47 ◼   ► and other podcasts before, Apple and the NFL

00:43:49 ◼   ► are both used to getting what they want.

00:43:52 ◼   ► And I think Apple was really motivated

00:43:53 ◼   ► to kind of like push the NFL and say, look, we're Apple.

00:43:56 ◼   ► Listen to us, we need to change what this product is.

00:43:59 ◼   ► And the NFL is like, no, you don't understand.

00:44:00 ◼   ► this is the product, you can bid for it, and that's it.

00:44:05 ◼   ► And they're like, well, no, we want the local.

00:44:07 ◼   ► And they're like, you can't have the local Fox and CBS

00:44:10 ◼   ► at the local games in market, you can't have them.

00:44:12 ◼   ► Apple's like, well, can we have them?

00:44:15 ◼   ► And they're like, no, you cannot.

00:44:17 ◼   ► How about international?

00:44:18 ◼   ► No, we have a product for that, you can't have that either.

00:44:20 ◼   ► So I think that this was one of those cases where it's like,

00:44:24 ◼   ► if you're Apple, you need to talk to the NFL about this,

00:44:26 ◼   ► but walking away totally makes sense.

00:44:29 ◼   ► From Amazon and Google's perspective,

00:44:31 ◼   ► I think I would make the same argument for Amazon

00:44:33 ◼   ► except for one difference,

00:44:34 ◼   ► which is Amazon already has an NFL game.

00:44:38 ◼   ► So they're already in business with the NFL

00:44:40 ◼   ► and this therefore would kind of accumulate to that.

00:44:43 ◼   ► It would probably be an Amazon channel.

00:44:46 ◼   ► Again, he says, drive Prime subscriptions.

00:44:49 ◼   ► I have a hard time seeing even Amazon eating

00:44:51 ◼   ► the billions of dollars that this thing will cost

00:44:54 ◼   ► and just using it as a value add for Prime

00:44:56 ◼   ► versus being a Prime channel

00:44:58 ◼   ► that you have to pay extra for.

00:45:00 ◼   ► But maybe, or maybe they would put Red Zone,

00:45:03 ◼   ► which is a summary channel

00:45:06 ◼   ► that you get with NFL Sunday Ticket.

00:45:08 ◼   ► Maybe they'd put that in prime,

00:45:10 ◼   ► but then you'd have to pay for Sunday Ticket.

00:45:11 ◼   ► I don't know those details,

00:45:13 ◼   ► but the Google thing is really interesting though,

00:45:16 ◼   ► 'cause Google has YouTube TV,

00:45:18 ◼   ► which is what's called a VM-PVD.

00:45:20 ◼   ► It's a cable package.

00:45:22 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:45:23 ◼   ► Sorry, I had to learn it.

00:45:25 ◼   ► Julia Alexander made me learn it.

00:45:27 ◼   ► It's a ridiculous term.

00:45:28 ◼   ► - What does it mean?

00:45:29 ◼   ► - VMPVD, I don't know what it stands for.

00:45:31 ◼   ► Virtual-

00:45:33 ◼   ► - Premium video distribution?

00:45:35 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's basically a cable package that comes in an app.

00:45:38 ◼   ► So like I've got Fubo, Hulu,

00:45:41 ◼   ► Plus Live TV, YouTube TV, Sling,

00:45:45 ◼   ► are all of these things that are basically,

00:45:47 ◼   ► you get a cable bundle,

00:45:48 ◼   ► except it just comes via streaming.

00:45:50 ◼   ► - Virtual multi-channel video programming distributor.

00:45:56 ◼   ► There you go, VM-PVD.

00:45:58 ◼   ► Learn it, love it, learn to embrace it, embrace the VM-PVD.

00:46:01 ◼   ► - I learned these from downstream, SVOD I learn, FAST,

00:46:06 ◼   ► FAST is the new one I learn.

00:46:07 ◼   ► - Fast, Free Ad-supported Television.

00:46:09 ◼   ► - Yeah, FAST TV.

00:46:11 ◼   ► - Oh, you got to have a program

00:46:12 ◼   ► to keep up with all of these things.

00:46:13 ◼   ► So, YouTube TV is one of those.

00:46:16 ◼   ► You pay YouTube or Google or whatever,

00:46:19 ◼   ► 65 or $70 a month, and you get all the channels

00:46:22 ◼   ► you would get with cable basically, except they're streaming.

00:46:25 ◼   ► So it's like you've got cable again, yay.

00:46:28 ◼   ► Except you can cancel it whenever you want

00:46:30 ◼   ► and your internet doesn't go down.

00:46:31 ◼   ► So Google's got that business.

00:46:34 ◼   ► That's interesting in the sense

00:46:36 ◼   ► that it's already a live TV business.

00:46:38 ◼   ► It means you've already got your local channels.

00:46:40 ◼   ► So for Google, it would potentially be like

00:46:43 ◼   ► you also get this and it works well with YouTube TV.

00:46:47 ◼   ► So they can take Sunday Ticket and say,

00:46:48 ◼   ► you can buy Sunday Ticket,

00:46:50 ◼   ► but you're not gonna get your locals.

00:46:51 ◼   ► But if you also get YouTube TV

00:46:53 ◼   ► and we've got a package for you,

00:46:55 ◼   ► then you'll get your locals and you'll get Sunday ticket

00:46:57 ◼   ► and you'll have everything plus other TV shows and stuff.

00:47:00 ◼   ► I kind of can see that as a better fit.

00:47:03 ◼   ► The truth is the NFL is gonna make a lot of money here,

00:47:08 ◼   ► what else is new,

00:47:10 ◼   ► but they're not gonna make as much money

00:47:13 ◼   ► as they would have if they had made it a sweeter package.

00:47:16 ◼   ► I think though that they don't want

00:47:18 ◼   ► to make it a sweeter package.

00:47:20 ◼   ► They know that they're gonna get a lot of value

00:47:21 ◼   ► and that somebody is gonna pay over essentially

00:47:24 ◼   ► what it's worth to get it in order to drive people

00:47:26 ◼   ► into their ecosystem.

00:47:27 ◼   ► And if that wasn't the case,

00:47:29 ◼   ► they would just roll it into their own streaming service.

00:47:32 ◼   ► 'Cause eliminating the middleman

00:47:34 ◼   ► is a thing the NFL could do.

00:47:36 ◼   ► They could be like Disney and say,

00:47:37 ◼   ► "We're going direct to consumer."

00:47:38 ◼   ► In fact, they already have a thing called NFL Plus,

00:47:41 ◼   ► that doesn't have the out-of-market games,

00:47:45 ◼   ► but they do have that.

00:47:46 ◼   ► Which means technically, I guess,

00:47:48 ◼   ► if you got Sunday Ticket and NFL Plus,

00:47:50 ◼   ► you could probably see everything.

00:47:51 ◼   ► So it's a way for the NFL to extract more money

00:47:56 ◼   ► from the middleman who values it

00:48:00 ◼   ► for things beyond what it is.

00:48:03 ◼   ► Great.

00:48:04 ◼   ► So somebody will do it,

00:48:05 ◼   ► and it's still gonna be the frustrating product that it was,

00:48:08 ◼   ► but maybe there'll be some tech innovation.

00:48:10 ◼   ► I think Apple is probably wise to walk away.

00:48:14 ◼   ► Although it's good to be in business with the NFL,

00:48:17 ◼   ► I think that product is kind of broken.

00:48:19 ◼   ► I would say Amazon, again, not for Prime, but because of its synergy with its Thursday

00:48:25 ◼   ► Night Football, that it's already in business with the NFL.

00:48:27 ◼   ► And I think Google is a great match here.

00:48:31 ◼   ► I think Google is a great match because of that VMPVD service that it has.

00:48:37 ◼   ► I would say that other VMPVD services should probably also bid for this.

00:48:41 ◼   ► I think it's kind of funny that Disney has dropped out of the bidding for this, not for

00:48:46 ◼   ► ESPN+ but for Hulu plus live TV. And something like Fubo that's a sports-based or sports-focused

00:48:53 ◼   ► VM-PVD, they don't have the money to do it, right? But that would be a perfect thing for

00:48:59 ◼   ► Fubo to do because it would be them doing the DirecTV thing, saying, "We're going to

00:49:03 ◼   ► pay a huge amount of money in order to get people to subscribe to our thing in order

00:49:07 ◼   ► to get an NFL Sunday ticket." But in the end, this is going to be actually a little disappointing,

00:49:13 ◼   ► I think, whoever gets it,

00:49:15 ◼   ► 'cause it's not gonna be a great fit,

00:49:17 ◼   ► but it'll be like, okay.

00:49:19 ◼   ► And the NFL is gonna get a lot of money,

00:49:21 ◼   ► but maybe not as much money as they hoped.

00:49:24 ◼   ► Still, a couple billion is nothing to sneeze at.

00:49:27 ◼   ► And what I would predict in the future is that

00:49:31 ◼   ► I think the NFL's engagement with Apple

00:49:35 ◼   ► has taught the NFL a little bit about what this product,

00:49:38 ◼   ► how the products need to change in the future,

00:49:40 ◼   ► how their licensing deals with all the TV companies

00:49:45 ◼   ► will need to adapt a little bit

00:49:48 ◼   ► 'cause this product isn't actually a good fit

00:49:50 ◼   ► for the market of today.

00:49:52 ◼   ► We'll see.

00:49:54 ◼   ► - This episode is brought to you by Fitbud.

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00:52:01 ◼   ► So, I see on the horizon Mark Gurman.

00:52:07 ◼   ► Oh no, it's him again.

00:52:10 ◼   ► He's escaped the rumor roundup.

00:52:11 ◼   ► Oh yeah, by the way, I'm regretting so much not having more football references in that

00:52:17 ◼   ► NFL segment.

00:52:18 ◼   ► I did not prepare right to…

00:52:19 ◼   ► I mean, there would have been lost on me, man.

00:52:22 ◼   ► Immaculate reception or are you ready for some football?

00:52:26 ◼   ► I mean, that's not a reference really.

00:52:28 ◼   ► That's just you telling me like, "Are you ready for some football?"

00:52:32 ◼   ► And you're like, "I know what that one means."

00:52:34 ◼   ► Mark Goerman at Bloomberg has reported that Apple is working on a series of initiatives

00:52:39 ◼   ► to comply with potential antitrust law in Europe, which will result in, among other things,

00:52:45 ◼   ► third-party app stores being on iOS.

00:52:49 ◼   ► The Digital Markets Act is the thing that we're talking about.

00:52:54 ◼   ► It's an incredibly complex piece of legislation that includes a bunch of stuff.

00:52:58 ◼   ► - Yep. - Kind of--

00:53:00 ◼   ► - Lump of coal, lumps of coal.

00:53:01 ◼   ► - Lumps of coal, it could start having an impact

00:53:04 ◼   ► potentially in 2024, but then there's also

00:53:06 ◼   ► the member states ratifying it

00:53:08 ◼   ► and the complications of all of that.

00:53:10 ◼   ► I, shorthand, have been thinking of the Digital Markets Act

00:53:15 ◼   ► as kinda like GDPR, and just bear with me here,

00:53:18 ◼   ► and you don't need to correct me, all right?

00:53:20 ◼   ► What I'm saying is, GDPR is a big, sweeping set of rules,

00:53:25 ◼   ► right, that exists, so, you know, for data privacy.

00:53:29 ◼   ► But it's really hard to necessarily know, as a company,

00:53:34 ◼   ► how well you're doing at implementing

00:53:38 ◼   ► any of these exact things,

00:53:39 ◼   ► 'cause there's not a lot of case law yet,

00:53:41 ◼   ► so there's still a lot of interpretation

00:53:44 ◼   ► around some of the law,

00:53:45 ◼   ► and I have viewed the digital markets act

00:53:47 ◼   ► as a similar thing,

00:53:48 ◼   ► that the European Union is going to request

00:53:50 ◼   ► a bunch of things.

00:53:51 ◼   ► Because of that, a bunch of companies need to do things

00:53:54 ◼   ► the way that they think is right

00:53:56 ◼   ► and hope that they cross their fingers and do it.

00:53:59 ◼   ► That's kind of how I look at the Digital Markets Act.

00:54:02 ◼   ► - Yeah, you know how people say,

00:54:03 ◼   ► I-A-N-A-L, I am not a lawyer.

00:54:05 ◼   ► I just want to say, I-A-N-A-E-L-E,

00:54:08 ◼   ► I am not a European legislation expert.

00:54:10 ◼   ► - Same, same.

00:54:11 ◼   ► - So it's complicated,

00:54:16 ◼   ► but I think Apple has lawyers.

00:54:21 ◼   ► - Yep.

00:54:22 ◼   ► - Apple has European legislation experts.

00:54:24 ◼   ► - Yep.

00:54:25 ◼   ► - And according to Mark Gurman's report,

00:54:27 ◼   ► they have all looked at this and realized that

00:54:30 ◼   ► if it's going to be required,

00:54:33 ◼   ► that they have to open up iOS to third party apps

00:54:36 ◼   ► or app stores, and it's gonna really come down in 2024,

00:54:41 ◼   ► that means it's in the iOS 17 cycle,

00:54:43 ◼   ► which they're starting to work on and plan for now.

00:54:46 ◼   ► I know it seems like it's a long ways away,

00:54:49 ◼   ► but like WWDC is in June,

00:54:51 ◼   ► they have something to show you in June.

00:54:53 ◼   ► yes, they work on it over the summer,

00:54:54 ◼   ► but there's like a beta that comes out in June

00:54:56 ◼   ► with the pieces of what is in iOS 17,

00:55:00 ◼   ► which means the first half of the year,

00:55:02 ◼   ► they're putting together iOS 17,

00:55:04 ◼   ► if they're not already working on it

00:55:05 ◼   ► the previous year right now, right?

00:55:07 ◼   ► And so according to Mark Gurman's report,

00:55:10 ◼   ► the lawyers and the experts at Apple

00:55:14 ◼   ► have said to the software and software team,

00:55:17 ◼   ► basically, if it's gonna take,

00:55:20 ◼   ► if you need to start now in order to comply

00:55:23 ◼   ► with opening this up in 2024, then start now, right?

00:55:28 ◼   ► They have been given the, the red light has come on

00:55:32 ◼   ► and it's like, yes.

00:55:35 ◼   ► And Mark Gurman's report says they're grumbling about it.

00:55:40 ◼   ► And I totally get it, right?

00:55:41 ◼   ► It's like engineers who are usually excited

00:55:44 ◼   ► to be working on great new features of iOS 17

00:55:47 ◼   ► are instead working on compliance features

00:55:50 ◼   ► in order to open up APIs and open the App Store.

00:55:53 ◼   ► And I totally get it from an engineer perspective.

00:55:55 ◼   ► Like I wanna build a new thing.

00:55:56 ◼   ► And they're like, no, you need to work on this thing

00:55:59 ◼   ► about sideloading instead,

00:56:00 ◼   ► because we may have to turn it on.

00:56:02 ◼   ► And I'm sure that within Apple, they're like, maybe not.

00:56:05 ◼   ► We'll watch it.

00:56:06 ◼   ► Maybe this work won't be something we actually have to do,

00:56:11 ◼   ► but I think they have to,

00:56:13 ◼   ► they've been told by their experts, you better be ready,

00:56:17 ◼   ► because the downside is an enormous fine from the EU

00:56:22 ◼   ► that we will not pay.

00:56:24 ◼   ► So you gotta be ready for the eventuality

00:56:27 ◼   ► that we're going to have to open up a bunch of our APIs

00:56:30 ◼   ► and access to our platform

00:56:32 ◼   ► to outside app developers and stores.

00:56:34 ◼   ► - Yeah, so like going back to us saying

00:56:35 ◼   ► about like the interpretation thing or whatever,

00:56:38 ◼   ► like Mark's report focuses on a few different areas.

00:56:41 ◼   ► There's app stores, which we're gonna talk about.

00:56:44 ◼   ► there's APIs and there's also messaging.

00:56:47 ◼   ► And it seems like Apple is not doing the messaging portion

00:56:53 ◼   ► that they are going to seem to abstain

00:56:56 ◼   ► from changing anything to iMessage

00:56:57 ◼   ► to make it interoperable.

00:56:59 ◼   ► I just find that interesting, right?

00:57:00 ◼   ► 'Cause that's where this Digital Markets Act

00:57:03 ◼   ► seems to be focusing on these areas.

00:57:05 ◼   ► But it seems like Apple is just like,

00:57:07 ◼   ► no, we're not doing that part.

00:57:09 ◼   ► - And I wonder if that is based on their analysis

00:57:11 ◼   ► of the legal use of this.

00:57:13 ◼   ► 'Cause none of these things are things Apple want to do.

00:57:16 ◼   ► It's not like any one of these three

00:57:18 ◼   ► is better than the other.

00:57:20 ◼   ► - Sure, but combine that with the fact

00:57:21 ◼   ► that it's also technically impossible.

00:57:22 ◼   ► It's like- - Yeah, I know.

00:57:24 ◼   ► - Interoperation of different encrypted messaging systems

00:57:27 ◼   ► is technically impossible

00:57:28 ◼   ► because of the way the encryption works.

00:57:30 ◼   ► So yes, obviously they seem to think that's defensible,

00:57:35 ◼   ► but that this part of it is not defensible,

00:57:37 ◼   ► or at least not likely to be defended

00:57:39 ◼   ► and requires an overhaul at such a level

00:57:42 ◼   ► that they have to start working on it now.

00:57:45 ◼   ► - Yep.

00:57:46 ◼   ► So the biggest change here is the ability,

00:57:51 ◼   ► potentially, for apps outside of the App Store

00:57:56 ◼   ► to find their way onto your iPhone.

00:58:00 ◼   ► We have potentially two ways of doing this.

00:58:03 ◼   ► There would be sideloading,

00:58:05 ◼   ► where you could just, like on a Mac, right?

00:58:07 ◼   ► You download an app from the web.

00:58:09 ◼   ► Actually, just use the Mac, right?

00:58:10 ◼   ► We'll just talk about the Mac.

00:58:11 ◼   ► On the Mac, you can download software from the web and you can install it.

00:58:14 ◼   ► And you can download apps from the App Store and you can just use them.

00:58:19 ◼   ► Right. So this would be what we'd be looking at.

00:58:22 ◼   ► And also app stores from other companies, which also works on the Mac.

00:58:26 ◼   ► You can download the Steam store.

00:58:28 ◼   ► Right. You can download games and you can run them.

00:58:30 ◼   ► So this potentially would be looking at bringing in all of these ways of being able to run apps.

00:58:39 ◼   ► Right.

00:58:39 ◼   ► Right.

00:58:40 ◼   ► And I think the question there, and I wrote a big,

00:58:43 ◼   ► I wrote, I sat down and wrote 3,000 words about this

00:58:45 ◼   ► at six dollars.

00:58:46 ◼   ► I think the three scenarios here are,

00:58:52 ◼   ► Apple just opens up sideloading.

00:58:54 ◼   ► You know, the ability, and we say sideloading,

00:58:56 ◼   ► but like every iOS device has a browser

00:58:59 ◼   ► with a downloads feature, right?

00:59:01 ◼   ► Like, and a file manager.

00:59:02 ◼   ► So sideloading isn't like plugging in via USB

00:59:04 ◼   ► and move a file over.

00:59:05 ◼   ► Sideloading is download a file and install it, right?

00:59:08 ◼   ► That's what it is.

00:59:10 ◼   ► There is, I guess my question is,

00:59:13 ◼   ► well, okay, let me boil it down to two,

00:59:17 ◼   ► which is, is it just as simple as there's a switch

00:59:19 ◼   ► like there is on Android for sideloading

00:59:21 ◼   ► and then it's like, good luck?

00:59:22 ◼   ► Or do they feel like this legislation will require them

00:59:26 ◼   ► to like put other app stores in the app store?

00:59:31 ◼   ► My guess is that that doesn't make sense.

00:59:36 ◼   ► My feeling is like, it's one thing to say

00:59:39 ◼   ► you have to open the platform,

00:59:40 ◼   ► but the platform is the operating system

00:59:42 ◼   ► and not the app store.

00:59:43 ◼   ► And I don't think the European legislation

00:59:46 ◼   ► is basically saying you must put anything

00:59:48 ◼   ► in the app store, right?

00:59:49 ◼   ► So I think the most likely scenario is

00:59:53 ◼   ► they will have a sideloading switch

00:59:55 ◼   ► if they're required to.

00:59:58 ◼   ► And it'll be like the one on Android.

00:59:59 ◼   ► And we covered this in an episode a few months ago

01:00:03 ◼   ► called this app may kill you.

01:00:07 ◼   ► - Which is a direct reference. - We're talking about

01:00:08 ◼   ► the Netherlands dating thing, right?

01:00:11 ◼   ► - Yeah, this app may kill you is a reference

01:00:16 ◼   ► to the scary warnings that will come up, right?

01:00:18 ◼   ► And so that was the idea is,

01:00:20 ◼   ► and Google does this with Android too.

01:00:22 ◼   ► You turn on, you know, allow untrusted apps

01:00:26 ◼   ► and the switch has a label bloat that says,

01:00:28 ◼   ► "This is dangerous, these apps may kill you."

01:00:30 ◼   ► And then you flip the switch and it brings up a thing

01:00:32 ◼   ► that says, "Watch out, these apps may kill you."

01:00:34 ◼   ► and you say, okay, and then it's enabled.

01:00:37 ◼   ► And then you download an app and you try to launch it.

01:00:39 ◼   ► And it says, this app may kill you.

01:00:42 ◼   ► And then you say, okay.

01:00:43 ◼   ► And then you're running a third-party app store.

01:00:45 ◼   ► And then at that point you can just download apps.

01:00:47 ◼   ► That's probably, and separately,

01:00:50 ◼   ► you could also just go to somebody's website

01:00:52 ◼   ► and download their app and install it, right?

01:00:53 ◼   ► It doesn't, I don't think the idea here is that

01:00:58 ◼   ► the EU is trying to create alternate gatekeepers

01:01:01 ◼   ► for software, right?

01:01:03 ◼   ► where it's like, well, you have to go through an app store,

01:01:05 ◼   ► but it could be other app stores.

01:01:07 ◼   ► I think that they also implied in this, at least to me,

01:01:10 ◼   ► is the idea that it's really anything.

01:01:12 ◼   ► You can install a third-party app store

01:01:13 ◼   ► with third-party apps,

01:01:14 ◼   ► or you could just install a third-party app

01:01:16 ◼   ► if you wanted to.

01:01:17 ◼   ► - Yeah, it just seems like they are trying to apply

01:01:20 ◼   ► the PC model to phones, right?

01:01:25 ◼   ► Like, you can just download software for it,

01:01:30 ◼   ► and you can run that software.

01:01:32 ◼   ► that's what they're trying to, you know,

01:01:34 ◼   ► so like that if you wanna put software on a device,

01:01:37 ◼   ► there's not just one place that you can get it from

01:01:39 ◼   ► that has all of the control of all of the money

01:01:42 ◼   ► and all of the business and everything.

01:01:44 ◼   ► - Yep. - Now this is in Europe.

01:01:49 ◼   ► Do you think that this would remain in Europe?

01:01:54 ◼   ► I guess imagine, WWDC rolls around and Apple's like,

01:01:57 ◼   ► "Hey, iOS 17, we're creating a new way

01:02:01 ◼   ► if you decide load applications only if you're in Europe.

01:02:05 ◼   ► - First off, I don't think they'll do that.

01:02:06 ◼   ► I think if we're talking rollout scenarios here,

01:02:09 ◼   ► this is iOS 17.2, comes out end of 2023 or early 2024,

01:02:14 ◼   ► right at the moment where this legislation

01:02:16 ◼   ► is gonna kick in for them.

01:02:18 ◼   ► - Yep.

01:02:19 ◼   ► - And it will not be trumpeted, right?

01:02:23 ◼   ► It'll just be there.

01:02:24 ◼   ► - Yep.

01:02:25 ◼   ► - In terms of the regional thing, it's possible.

01:02:29 ◼   ► I'm skeptical, not that Apple might not try it,

01:02:32 ◼   ► but that if I start to think about,

01:02:34 ◼   ► first off, I think if they put a switch in there for regions

01:02:38 ◼   ► it's gonna be really easy.

01:02:39 ◼   ► It's absolutely gonna be really easy to subvert that.

01:02:42 ◼   ► I feel like there'll be a workaround to say,

01:02:46 ◼   ► oh, pretend you're in Europe and then turn this feature on

01:02:49 ◼   ► and then leave Europe and you keep the feature on.

01:02:54 ◼   ► And I don't think Apple's gonna make it

01:02:55 ◼   ► that when European travelers go to America,

01:02:57 ◼   ► all their third-party apps stop working.

01:02:59 ◼   ► I just don't think that they're gonna do that sort of thing.

01:03:00 ◼   ► - I expect that they would do it like how they do now,

01:03:04 ◼   ► which is it's by your billing address.

01:03:07 ◼   ► So like I can't change my iPhone to be an American,

01:03:11 ◼   ► like to think that I'm in America, like I'm American,

01:03:14 ◼   ► and get like apps that are only available in America

01:03:18 ◼   ► like that, because this is a thing I can't do.

01:03:21 ◼   ► - Here's the problem though, is my understanding is

01:03:23 ◼   ► that this rule affects anybody in the EU,

01:03:25 ◼   ► not just people who have EU billing addresses, right?

01:03:29 ◼   ► If I'm in the EU, I think I have the right to do it.

01:03:31 ◼   ► Again, I-A-N-A-E-L-E.

01:03:35 ◼   ► I just, I think the most expedient solution here

01:03:38 ◼   ► is that Apple will just turn it on everywhere

01:03:39 ◼   ► because Apple does not want to have

01:03:41 ◼   ► an incredibly fractured operating system

01:03:44 ◼   ► with a lot of different features in different places

01:03:46 ◼   ► and different apps doing different things

01:03:49 ◼   ► in different places.

01:03:49 ◼   ► And people will find workarounds anywhere.

01:03:52 ◼   ► - They have to understand.

01:03:54 ◼   ► This is, well one, it's the bed they've made for themselves

01:03:58 ◼   ► and now they've got to make that bed

01:04:00 ◼   ► because once Europe do this, it is just a matter of time

01:04:05 ◼   ► until it happens everywhere else.

01:04:08 ◼   ► So just take it that far.

01:04:10 ◼   ► - Just to be clear, they've already made the bed,

01:04:11 ◼   ► now they have to lie in the bed.

01:04:12 ◼   ► That's I think how that works.

01:04:14 ◼   ► - Well, they've lie in the bed

01:04:15 ◼   ► and have to get back up again and make the bed again.

01:04:17 ◼   ► That's where I am.

01:04:20 ◼   ► 'Cause I'm just like, they do the whole thing.

01:04:22 ◼   ► They've done it, all right, we've implemented it.

01:04:24 ◼   ► What do you think that no one else

01:04:26 ◼   ► is gonna make you do it at that point?

01:04:28 ◼   ► - Yeah, right.

01:04:29 ◼   ► - Just do it, just get out ahead of it.

01:04:31 ◼   ► - Yeah, so my, I know there are counter arguments here.

01:04:34 ◼   ► I had to, if I had to pick one,

01:04:36 ◼   ► I'd say they're just gonna turn it on

01:04:38 ◼   ► because I have a hard time imagining

01:04:40 ◼   ► that they're going to have that completely fractured thing

01:04:44 ◼   ► and then have to navigate like how is it on

01:04:46 ◼   ► and when is it off?

01:04:47 ◼   ► And they have to build that into the different,

01:04:49 ◼   ► like are there gonna be different builds of the software

01:04:51 ◼   ► Is it going to be a hidden feature?

01:04:52 ◼   ► And if it's a hidden feature,

01:04:53 ◼   ► people are going to turn it on anyway.

01:04:55 ◼   ► And I feel like they're going to,

01:04:58 ◼   ► they're an international,

01:04:59 ◼   ► they are the most global of companies.

01:05:01 ◼   ► They are going to just need to deal with it.

01:05:03 ◼   ► And so I think the most likely scenario

01:05:05 ◼   ► is they'll turn it on.

01:05:07 ◼   ► I will point out,

01:05:07 ◼   ► there is a scenario where they only do it in Europe,

01:05:10 ◼   ► and it's almost like a gamble that they could be like,

01:05:14 ◼   ► "Well, let's see what happens in Europe."

01:05:15 ◼   ► And if it's a disaster in some way,

01:05:18 ◼   ► they'll be like, "Ha ha, see?

01:05:20 ◼   ► This is why we didn't do it anywhere else. And if it's fine, it completely undercuts

01:05:23 ◼   ► their argument that sideloading is gonna destroy the platform. The problem I have is that I

01:05:28 ◼   ► don't actually believe that they believe that sideloading is gonna destroy the platform.

01:05:32 ◼   ► I think they know that when they do this in the EU, it's gonna be fine. And then what's

01:05:37 ◼   ► their argument? So again, I think that they're probably inclined to just turn it on everywhere.

01:05:43 ◼   ► And that lowers, as you point out, lowers the pressure on them in like the US for this.

01:05:48 ◼   ► Do you imagine this working like the Mac notarization,

01:05:51 ◼   ► like that kind of thing?

01:05:52 ◼   ► Like the Apple will still require something?

01:05:56 ◼   ► - Yeah, I don't know if Apple internally really thought

01:05:59 ◼   ► that what they were doing with the Mac was a test case

01:06:02 ◼   ► for what if they had to do this on iOS,

01:06:03 ◼   ► but it absolutely was, right?

01:06:05 ◼   ► Like it absolutely was.

01:06:07 ◼   ► They have a whole system and philosophy built

01:06:11 ◼   ► and Mark Gurman references this in his story.

01:06:15 ◼   ► They have, you know, already are talking about

01:06:19 ◼   ► like a scanning feature, he says, for apps

01:06:22 ◼   ► that would scan them for malware and be signed.

01:06:24 ◼   ► And it's like, oh, that's notarization

01:06:26 ◼   ► is what they're talking about.

01:06:27 ◼   ► And so I think, you know, there may be little differences,

01:06:32 ◼   ► again, I-A-N-A-E-L-E, but there may be differences

01:06:36 ◼   ► that are mandated in the regulation.

01:06:38 ◼   ► But my guess is it'll work just like it does on the Mac,

01:06:41 ◼   ► that there'll be a default,

01:06:42 ◼   ► and the default will be only use the App Store, basically.

01:06:45 ◼   ► And then there'll be a switch with these apps may kill you

01:06:49 ◼   ► that will flip you into essentially

01:06:53 ◼   ► third-party app downloadable mode.

01:06:55 ◼   ► And then those apps may come into forms, right?

01:06:58 ◼   ► And again, this is where I don't know

01:07:00 ◼   ► what the letter of the law is,

01:07:02 ◼   ► 'cause I'm not sure that the law will allow Apple

01:07:07 ◼   ► to require that Apple approve and sign everything, right?

01:07:10 ◼   ► Like that's sort of the point

01:07:11 ◼   ► is that Apple shouldn't have that power.

01:07:13 ◼   ► So I think it's more likely that Apple will do

01:07:16 ◼   ► what they do on the Mac, which is they will say,

01:07:18 ◼   ► you're a developer, you pay a developer fee,

01:07:21 ◼   ► you sign your app, you upload it to the service,

01:07:23 ◼   ► that we notarize it, we sign the notarization certificate,

01:07:27 ◼   ► we send that back to you,

01:07:28 ◼   ► you release your app for download wherever.

01:07:31 ◼   ► This is what happens on the Mac today.

01:07:33 ◼   ► And at our second level of security,

01:07:36 ◼   ► what happens is you open that app

01:07:40 ◼   ► and it checks to make sure that it isn't like basically

01:07:43 ◼   ► malware and it checks that the signing certificate is valid.

01:07:47 ◼   ► And then it warns you that this app might kill you

01:07:50 ◼   ► and you say, okay on that screen and then it opens.

01:07:53 ◼   ► And then there's the third level, which people on the Mac,

01:07:57 ◼   ► you know, a lot of people may not know about,

01:07:58 ◼   ► but there's also, you can still do unsigned,

01:08:00 ◼   ► unnotarized apps.

01:08:02 ◼   ► But when you try to open those up,

01:08:05 ◼   ► it doesn't say this app may kill you, okay to continue.

01:08:09 ◼   ► It says, "This app may kill you, cancel or move to trash."

01:08:13 ◼   ► And there's no option to open it.

01:08:15 ◼   ► And you have to do like a special thing

01:08:17 ◼   ► to force that app open.

01:08:19 ◼   ► That is like extra, "No, really, it may kill you,"

01:08:23 ◼   ► kind of level of, it's the double level of security

01:08:25 ◼   ► to get it open the first time, but you can get there.

01:08:28 ◼   ► And that may be where iOS goes.

01:08:31 ◼   ► And, you know, it depends on what the letter of the law is,

01:08:35 ◼   ► but I'm sure that Apple will try

01:08:38 ◼   ► to have that other level, which is,

01:08:40 ◼   ► we will grease the skids for you

01:08:42 ◼   ► if you sign your app so we know it's from you.

01:08:46 ◼   ► And that also helps against malware

01:08:48 ◼   ► because if somebody takes a signed app

01:08:52 ◼   ► that's on the internet and then rewrites it

01:08:54 ◼   ► and tries to pass it off as the original,

01:08:56 ◼   ► the signature won't match

01:08:58 ◼   ► and you'll know that it's been tampered with.

01:09:00 ◼   ► So it's got a real purpose in doing this.

01:09:03 ◼   ► And then Apple does some scanning

01:09:04 ◼   ► and it also gives Apple the ability

01:09:06 ◼   ► to flip the kill switch if it's malware.

01:09:08 ◼   ► And again, they haven't abused that on the Mac.

01:09:11 ◼   ► I don't think they would abuse that on iOS.

01:09:12 ◼   ► They know that they would get in trouble

01:09:13 ◼   ► if they're just killing competitors, right?

01:09:15 ◼   ► But it is good for malware.

01:09:18 ◼   ► - Yeah, they have in fact used these tools

01:09:21 ◼   ► for great effect, right?

01:09:22 ◼   ► There have been some apps that have gotten malware

01:09:25 ◼   ► inserted into them and Apple's been able to step in.

01:09:28 ◼   ► - And there's a malware scanner on the Mac

01:09:30 ◼   ► that loads things in the background

01:09:31 ◼   ► and can kill those apps on the fly,

01:09:34 ◼   ► even if they got through the signature and scanning process.

01:09:37 ◼   ► And I'd imagine that would happen on iOS too.

01:09:39 ◼   ► So, yeah, honestly, the Mac approach here

01:09:42 ◼   ► really does solve most of these issues.

01:09:44 ◼   ► It doesn't mean that there can't be malware and piracy

01:09:46 ◼   ► and all sorts of other things,

01:09:48 ◼   ► but what it does mean is,

01:09:49 ◼   ► and the Mac has those things too,

01:09:52 ◼   ► but they're not very common

01:09:54 ◼   ► because Apple has been so proactive in building this.

01:09:57 ◼   ► And also this gets to the truth of this,

01:09:59 ◼   ► which is most people won't ever turn on that switch, right?

01:10:03 ◼   ► most people are gonna stay in the app store.

01:10:05 ◼   ► That's the truth of it.

01:10:06 ◼   ► - Of course they will.

01:10:07 ◼   ► - And so, yeah, so it's not gonna,

01:10:09 ◼   ► it will, will it change iOS forever?

01:10:10 ◼   ► Yeah, on one level, but on another level

01:10:12 ◼   ► for most people it won't change at all

01:10:14 ◼   ► because I think most people are not gonna,

01:10:16 ◼   ► are not gonna do it.

01:10:17 ◼   ► The biggest risk is that you're gonna get

01:10:18 ◼   ► scamware and malware,

01:10:20 ◼   ► people who are gonna set up websites

01:10:22 ◼   ► where they walk you through how,

01:10:24 ◼   ► or they're on the phone talking you through

01:10:26 ◼   ► how to disable all of the protections

01:10:29 ◼   ► and that some gullible people will do that.

01:10:31 ◼   ► That happens on the Mac today too.

01:10:33 ◼   ► That will happen, but it doesn't matter

01:10:38 ◼   ► 'cause the upside is that the EU says

01:10:42 ◼   ► people should have the freedom to install software

01:10:44 ◼   ► on the devices they own.

01:10:46 ◼   ► - Listeners of this show know that we covered

01:10:50 ◼   ► the Netherlands third-party payment debacle

01:10:54 ◼   ► quite extensively, kind of going through the way

01:10:59 ◼   ► that Apple was trying to craft legislation

01:11:02 ◼   ► that the Netherlands would accept for third-party payments.

01:11:06 ◼   ► One of the things that I really took away from that

01:11:09 ◼   ► is Apple wants its money, right?

01:11:13 ◼   ► Because, you know, and I think it was in the Netherlands,

01:11:16 ◼   ► and I think they did it in one other place, too,

01:11:21 ◼   ► where they required, like, an audit of your transactions,

01:11:24 ◼   ► and they wanted 28% of those transactions

01:11:27 ◼   ► or whatever the number was.

01:11:28 ◼   ► So if you use the third-party payment provider, that's fine,

01:11:31 ◼   ► but we still want a cut.

01:11:34 ◼   ► Ryan in the Discord saying South Korea,

01:11:35 ◼   ► which seems right to my memory.

01:11:38 ◼   ► - That's the other one, yeah.

01:11:39 ◼   ► - So they wanted you to go through,

01:11:41 ◼   ► create an audit of all of your transactions

01:11:43 ◼   ► that you made through your own payment provider,

01:11:45 ◼   ► and then give them the money,

01:11:46 ◼   ► which is one of the most egregious things

01:11:48 ◼   ► I've ever seen them do.

01:11:49 ◼   ► - And this is one of my points here,

01:11:51 ◼   ► is that I don't believe the European regulation

01:11:55 ◼   ► specifies what Apple's business model

01:11:57 ◼   ► and what its relationship with its developers needs to be.

01:12:00 ◼   ► And we've seen the examples of this before.

01:12:02 ◼   ► So when I answered the question in my article,

01:12:04 ◼   ► like won't this cost Apple money?

01:12:06 ◼   ► It's like, yeah, it will.

01:12:07 ◼   ► It will do a certain degree,

01:12:08 ◼   ► but don't forget Apple is going to find every other way

01:12:13 ◼   ► to claw money back from these developers.

01:12:15 ◼   ► And we've seen it in other places

01:12:17 ◼   ► where they want you to, yeah,

01:12:19 ◼   ► basically open your books and pay a fee.

01:12:22 ◼   ► There's the potential,

01:12:24 ◼   ► Mark Gurman mentions in the article,

01:12:25 ◼   ► to pay for notarization, I think that definitely

01:12:28 ◼   ► you could be in a scenario where Apple is changing.

01:12:32 ◼   ► So Apple's core argument is that they provide

01:12:36 ◼   ► the developer tools and the APIs for free,

01:12:39 ◼   ► or for $100, depending.

01:12:40 ◼   ► And if this is gonna be the way it works in the future,

01:12:45 ◼   ► you could say, "Oh, they're not gonna change that."

01:12:47 ◼   ► It's always been that way.

01:12:48 ◼   ► No, if they can get their money, they will change it.

01:12:51 ◼   ► So one scenario is they will change developer membership

01:12:55 ◼   ► to be based on your app revenue.

01:12:58 ◼   ► And that your a hundred dollar membership

01:13:00 ◼   ► that even the largest developer pays

01:13:03 ◼   ► will suddenly be a hundred or a thousand or 10,000

01:13:07 ◼   ► or a hundred thousand or a million dollars a year,

01:13:09 ◼   ► depending on who you are.

01:13:11 ◼   ► And I know we've had this conversation before,

01:13:13 ◼   ► but I'm just gonna say it again.

01:13:14 ◼   ► It's much less likely that governments

01:13:18 ◼   ► are going to regulate how businesses

01:13:21 ◼   ► charge other businesses for access,

01:13:26 ◼   ► which is not the same, right?

01:13:28 ◼   ► And like, I know that seems weird,

01:13:30 ◼   ► but like, I think it's a much harder thing to do to say,

01:13:35 ◼   ► you know, we're making it not just illegal

01:13:37 ◼   ► for you to have one app store,

01:13:41 ◼   ► but we're gonna make it illegal for you

01:13:43 ◼   ► to charge other people for the products and tools

01:13:47 ◼   ► that they need to make products for your platform, right?

01:13:50 ◼   ► - Yeah, because these governments that we mentioned

01:13:53 ◼   ► accepted this.

01:13:55 ◼   ► - It's not like they couldn't.

01:13:56 ◼   ► It's that that's a much harder sell

01:13:57 ◼   ► 'cause you are now getting into the business

01:14:00 ◼   ► of saying businesses shouldn't charge more than X

01:14:03 ◼   ► for their services or product.

01:14:05 ◼   ► 'Cause Apple will come and say,

01:14:06 ◼   ► we built this entire platform.

01:14:07 ◼   ► I mean, this has been Apple's argument all along.

01:14:09 ◼   ► We built this entire platform.

01:14:10 ◼   ► We built the developer tools.

01:14:12 ◼   ► We built the APIs.

01:14:13 ◼   ► You know, that has value.

01:14:15 ◼   ► we deserve to be compensated for that value.

01:14:17 ◼   ► And I'm not saying that they're,

01:14:22 ◼   ► like the counterargument is you reap the value

01:14:24 ◼   ► in the increased value of the hardware that you sell.

01:14:27 ◼   ► I get it.

01:14:28 ◼   ► But like, I'm just saying governments are even more loath

01:14:31 ◼   ► to go to companies and say,

01:14:35 ◼   ► okay, you have to make your profits

01:14:39 ◼   ► on the hardware you sell.

01:14:41 ◼   ► Or do they go and they say,

01:14:43 ◼   ► Oh, well, Sony and Microsoft,

01:14:45 ◼   ► you don't make profits on your game consoles.

01:14:47 ◼   ► So we'll allow you this, but Apple, you make profits.

01:14:50 ◼   ► Let's see how much, open your books.

01:14:51 ◼   ► Let's see how much profit you make on the iPhone.

01:14:53 ◼   ► Where does it fit?

01:14:54 ◼   ► Like they can do that.

01:14:56 ◼   ► I'm just saying it's a harder sell

01:14:58 ◼   ► because you're going deeper down into the business now.

01:15:01 ◼   ► Whereas they can say, look, yay, we opened it, freedom.

01:15:05 ◼   ► And then all the people who thought

01:15:08 ◼   ► that they were gonna be saving money

01:15:09 ◼   ► that they weren't gonna have to give to Apple

01:15:11 ◼   ► are gonna say, no, it's not freedom.

01:15:12 ◼   ► Apple still takes their money,

01:15:14 ◼   ► and that's when the governments kind of whistle

01:15:16 ◼   ► and walk away, and they're like, freedom,

01:15:19 ◼   ► and they walk away.

01:15:21 ◼   ► Maybe I'm being cynical there,

01:15:22 ◼   ► but I just feel like Apple's gonna do everything it can

01:15:24 ◼   ► to get money out of all the developers.

01:15:27 ◼   ► And the carrot is that notarization process,

01:15:32 ◼   ► like if you pay and you're a valid Apple developer

01:15:35 ◼   ► and whatever, the carrot is that that's a lot slicker

01:15:38 ◼   ► of a way into the system.

01:15:40 ◼   ► And again, I have a hard time believing

01:15:41 ◼   ► that the regulations would outlaw it.

01:15:43 ◼   ► But it's possible, it's not impossible

01:15:45 ◼   ► that they'd be like, no, notarization is not,

01:15:49 ◼   ► like you can't make that an impediment.

01:15:51 ◼   ► And does the legislation say you can't warn people

01:15:55 ◼   ► about this feature?

01:15:56 ◼   ► Probably not, right?

01:15:57 ◼   ► It probably allows you to warn them as long as you do it.

01:16:00 ◼   ► So again, this is the most, for me,

01:16:03 ◼   ► this is the most likely path Apple will take

01:16:04 ◼   ► is what they did on the Mac, which is,

01:16:06 ◼   ► it'll be, you're in the App Store

01:16:09 ◼   ► or we'll make it kind of hard for you

01:16:10 ◼   ► but you'll have to go through the notarization process

01:16:12 ◼   ► and be an Apple developer

01:16:13 ◼   ► and probably agree to pay us money.

01:16:15 ◼   ► Or you can be all the way on the outside

01:16:17 ◼   ► and maybe you don't have to pay us money then,

01:16:20 ◼   ► but it's gonna be double hard

01:16:21 ◼   ► to get your thing in the store

01:16:22 ◼   ► when it's gonna be expert to get your thing on the phone

01:16:24 ◼   ► and it's gonna be extra scary.

01:16:26 ◼   ► And do you wanna do that?

01:16:27 ◼   ► And even then they might say you still have to pay us.

01:16:29 ◼   ► So they're gonna try to get their money.

01:16:32 ◼   ► - So it's been said a bunch of times

01:16:34 ◼   ► that Android has it's side loading

01:16:38 ◼   ► and it has for all time.

01:16:39 ◼   ► you can put alternate app stores in Android,

01:16:42 ◼   ► that they haven't seen great results.

01:16:46 ◼   ► Do you think that this might be a similar answer here?

01:16:49 ◼   ► Do you think this would happen in the same way?

01:16:51 ◼   ► Businesses tend to not stay out of the Play Store

01:16:55 ◼   ► for very long.

01:16:56 ◼   ► - Yeah, that's the, this is what we've seen,

01:16:59 ◼   ► is being in the default app store is a great advantage.

01:17:07 ◼   ► And I'm not sure, again, I kind of feel like,

01:17:12 ◼   ► although Epic would love for this to be the case,

01:17:16 ◼   ► I think that the regulators are reluctant to say,

01:17:20 ◼   ► you have to put, like to tell a platform owner,

01:17:26 ◼   ► you can't even be the default.

01:17:29 ◼   ► Like you have to not be on, like somebody proposed

01:17:33 ◼   ► and it was really a stupid proposal in the US

01:17:35 ◼   ► that was like, when you get an iPhone,

01:17:38 ◼   ► it shouldn't have any apps on it,

01:17:39 ◼   ► 'cause that unjustly prefers Apple.

01:17:42 ◼   ► And it's like, well, that's a disaster for users

01:17:45 ◼   ► if it doesn't have apps on it.

01:17:46 ◼   ► So I feel like where we've come is,

01:17:50 ◼   ► the home field advantage is allowed.

01:17:52 ◼   ► It's just not allowed to be a monopoly.

01:17:55 ◼   ► That seems to be where we're landing on this.

01:17:57 ◼   ► So Android has a home field advantage,

01:17:59 ◼   ► which is the Play Store is installed by default,

01:18:02 ◼   ► at least on many devices,

01:18:05 ◼   ► there's no like 100% for anything on Android,

01:18:09 ◼   ► but like their store is on there and it's real convenient.

01:18:13 ◼   ► - Yeah.

01:18:14 ◼   ► - And yeah, if you get Samsung,

01:18:15 ◼   ► you might have a Samsung store or whatever,

01:18:16 ◼   ► but like it's real convenient, it's there,

01:18:18 ◼   ► you can get to everything.

01:18:20 ◼   ► And if you wanna leave and then only be on the outside,

01:18:23 ◼   ► you now have to walk everybody through turning off

01:18:25 ◼   ► that default setting and where you go to download it

01:18:29 ◼   ► and how you have to approve it and get it in there.

01:18:31 ◼   ► Not that you can't, Lauren just side-loaded an app

01:18:36 ◼   ► onto a Kindle Fire last week at her job.

01:18:42 ◼   ► Like it can be done, but it's more work.

01:18:47 ◼   ► And if you're trying to get like the best benefit,

01:18:49 ◼   ► also the payment system,

01:18:51 ◼   ► like you're already on the payment system.

01:18:53 ◼   ► They already have your credit card.

01:18:54 ◼   ► This is that argument like Apple already has

01:18:56 ◼   ► your credit card, you use it for a bunch of stuff.

01:18:59 ◼   ► You trust Apple with your credit card.

01:19:01 ◼   ► It's in the App Store, that's super easy.

01:19:03 ◼   ► Like that's why that is so powerful.

01:19:04 ◼   ► And it's not powerful because, I would argue,

01:19:07 ◼   ► it's not powerful because Apple is the only option.

01:19:11 ◼   ► It's powerful because Apple is known, it's the default,

01:19:15 ◼   ► they run the platform.

01:19:17 ◼   ► And it seems to me that the trend in this legislation

01:19:20 ◼   ► is more the monopoly part you can't do.

01:19:25 ◼   ► You have to open it up to competition,

01:19:27 ◼   ► but you can still be number one, right?

01:19:29 ◼   ► You can, you're still allowed to be the default.

01:19:31 ◼   ► It's better for the users,

01:19:33 ◼   ► and I would argue this very strongly,

01:19:35 ◼   ► to have apps on your phone when you buy it, right?

01:19:37 ◼   ► It's better for users.

01:19:39 ◼   ► What you can't do is say only our apps

01:19:42 ◼   ► or only our app store.

01:19:43 ◼   ► You need to let others come in and compete.

01:19:45 ◼   ► But at the same time, that is an advantage

01:19:48 ◼   ► and that they will have, like most people,

01:19:51 ◼   ► I think will never turn on this feature

01:19:53 ◼   ► because they will be comfortable as it is.

01:19:57 ◼   ► How do you feel about this?

01:19:59 ◼   ► Do you, what do you think?

01:20:01 ◼   ► Do you want this?

01:20:02 ◼   ► Do you not want this?

01:20:04 ◼   ► Where are you on this?

01:20:06 ◼   ► - I completely support this.

01:20:10 ◼   ► - Okay.

01:20:11 ◼   ► - I realize it will change the world

01:20:15 ◼   ► and there are gonna be downsides to it.

01:20:16 ◼   ► It's not 100% great.

01:20:19 ◼   ► But I use a Mac every day

01:20:21 ◼   ► and the world hasn't ended on the Mac.

01:20:24 ◼   ► Now that there are things that are not,

01:20:27 ◼   ► There are things that are not the Mac App Store.

01:20:29 ◼   ► Right, it predates, the openness of the Mac

01:20:32 ◼   ► predates the Mac App Store, obviously.

01:20:33 ◼   ► But like, the Mac has managed to make it work

01:20:36 ◼   ► where there's an App Store,

01:20:37 ◼   ► and there's different software levels,

01:20:39 ◼   ► and there's this process for having a trusted developer,

01:20:44 ◼   ► and then separately you can just run

01:20:46 ◼   ► completely untrusted software, and it works fine.

01:20:51 ◼   ► My feelings are, I don't think this is cataclysmic

01:20:55 ◼   ► to Apple's business, I think Apple's gonna be fine.

01:20:58 ◼   ► I feel like Apple, it's good because Apple

01:21:03 ◼   ► isn't just motivated by money, although they are,

01:21:09 ◼   ► they're also motivated by control.

01:21:12 ◼   ► And like, I keep coming back to all of the apps

01:21:18 ◼   ► that don't exist because the developers can invest money

01:21:22 ◼   ► into developing an app that might push the envelope in certain ways because if Apple

01:21:27 ◼   ► won't accept it, they have nowhere else to put that app. Right? And so it's not just

01:21:34 ◼   ► obvious categories of apps that are not allowed, although it is those two. Like emulators is

01:21:40 ◼   ► a great example. Just no emulators. Okay. And I want them. And I want them. And although

01:21:44 ◼   ► you can get them, it's really inconvenient to get them on iOS. And it should be less,

01:21:50 ◼   ► it should be easier, right?

01:21:52 ◼   ► But also anything that is perceived internally,

01:21:56 ◼   ► just inside their own brain by a developer

01:21:59 ◼   ► as being something Apple might not like,

01:22:01 ◼   ► they go on to the next idea, right?

01:22:03 ◼   ► You just go on to the next idea

01:22:04 ◼   ► because you've heard too many horror stories

01:22:06 ◼   ► about Apple rejecting your app.

01:22:08 ◼   ► And if Apple rejects your app, what do you do?

01:22:10 ◼   ► Right now the answer is nothing.

01:22:13 ◼   ► I mean, I guess today the answer is

01:22:14 ◼   ► can you do it in catalyst and put it on the Mac?

01:22:16 ◼   ► But like it will never be a mobile app

01:22:18 ◼   ► because you can't get it in the app store

01:22:20 ◼   ► if Apple says no.

01:22:22 ◼   ► In the future, if this is the case,

01:22:25 ◼   ► maybe you still try to be in the app store,

01:22:27 ◼   ► but if Apple says no, you've got to fall back.

01:22:31 ◼   ► And maybe you come up with something

01:22:34 ◼   ► knowing that it won't be in the app store,

01:22:36 ◼   ► but that it's gonna be so awesome

01:22:37 ◼   ► that people are gonna wanna download it separately, right?

01:22:39 ◼   ► And that stuff doesn't happen today.

01:22:41 ◼   ► I think people don't give enough credit

01:22:43 ◼   ► to the chilling effect that is Apple's often capricious

01:22:47 ◼   ► an arbitrary set of policies about the App Store,

01:22:51 ◼   ► as well as being very particular in some cases

01:22:55 ◼   ► where they're like, "We're just never gonna allow apps

01:22:57 ◼   ► like this in the App Store."

01:22:58 ◼   ► That shut off whole categories of apps.

01:23:02 ◼   ► But it's not just that, right?

01:23:04 ◼   ► It's not just the emulators.

01:23:05 ◼   ► It is anything that might possibly

01:23:09 ◼   ► offend an App Store approver.

01:23:11 ◼   ► The wise developers learned a long time ago

01:23:15 ◼   ► just not to develop those apps anymore,

01:23:17 ◼   ► and we don't get them.

01:23:18 ◼   ► And that's a real shame.

01:23:20 ◼   ► And I would argue it makes the platform less rich,

01:23:24 ◼   ► and that that actually hurts Apple,

01:23:26 ◼   ► but Apple has steadfastly refused to change their ways.

01:23:30 ◼   ► So here we are.

01:23:31 ◼   ► Like in the end, I'm for it because it's a net positive,

01:23:36 ◼   ► and it will let those of us who want to see things

01:23:40 ◼   ► that are more than what the app store has to offer

01:23:43 ◼   ► to get them.

01:23:44 ◼   ► And I do that on my Mac today.

01:23:45 ◼   ► And the fact is my iPhone belongs to me

01:23:47 ◼   ► and my iPad belongs to me.

01:23:48 ◼   ► And fundamentally, what is true about the Mac

01:23:52 ◼   ► should be true about those devices.

01:23:54 ◼   ► And I'm reminded of an Apple executive standing on stage

01:23:57 ◼   ► at WWDC in 2019 and saying,

01:24:00 ◼   ► "If you want to run code on your Mac, you can, fundamentally.

01:24:05 ◼   ► "We may put up some walls, we may make it harder,

01:24:10 ◼   ► "you may have to turn some things on or off,

01:24:12 ◼   ► "but if you wanna run software on your Mac

01:24:15 ◼   ► "that we don't know about that you just wanna run,

01:24:18 ◼   ► "we're not going to stop you."

01:24:21 ◼   ► I think that should be the rule for everything, right?

01:24:26 ◼   ► It's my device.

01:24:30 ◼   ► If I wanna, you put up all the guard rails you like,

01:24:33 ◼   ► but it's my device.

01:24:34 ◼   ► If I wanna run an emulator or anything on my iPad,

01:24:42 ◼   ► Who is Apple to say, "I don't want that.

01:24:47 ◼   ► "I do want that."

01:24:49 ◼   ► And Apple's saying, "No, you can't have it.

01:24:50 ◼   ► "We're not gonna let you have a whole class of software

01:24:54 ◼   ► "because we've decided it's not in your best interest."

01:24:56 ◼   ► It's like, "Look, man, I bought the iPad.

01:24:59 ◼   ► "It's mine.

01:25:00 ◼   ► "I'm gonna run the software on it that I want to."

01:25:02 ◼   ► And I know it's like, "Well, no, it's an iPad.

01:25:03 ◼   ► "It doesn't do that."

01:25:04 ◼   ► I'm like, "Yeah, it should, it should.

01:25:08 ◼   ► "It's a computer, like a Mac.

01:25:10 ◼   ► "It should run the software I wanna run."

01:25:12 ◼   ► Period.

01:25:13 ◼   ► And I appreciate Apple trying to protect its users,

01:25:17 ◼   ► but the truth is, Apple's protection of its users

01:25:19 ◼   ► has been fused to Apple's desire to maximize its money,

01:25:23 ◼   ► the money it gets in its market for too long.

01:25:27 ◼   ► - So I'm very similar to you on here, right?

01:25:29 ◼   ► I wanna make a couple of like,

01:25:31 ◼   ► I agree with 100% of everything you said,

01:25:33 ◼   ► and I stand with you on every single one of these opinions.

01:25:36 ◼   ► I just wanna call out a couple of other

01:25:38 ◼   ► little specific parts, right?

01:25:40 ◼   ► there are entire types of apps

01:25:42 ◼   ► that we're not allowed to have.

01:25:44 ◼   ► I wanna be able to have the Xbox Game Pass on my iPhone,

01:25:48 ◼   ► but Apple has said they won't let them do it.