ATP

00:00:00 ◼   ► you know something you put about like a a5x and the Apple TV thing however many

00:00:06 ◼   ► I'm an idiot for that it's going into the retina iPad mini of course the a5x

00:00:11 ◼   ► yeah I was saying it's a die shrink that's going into the retina iPad mini

00:00:14 ◼   ► of course no it wasn't Anna saying the a5 he thought the a5x was going to the

00:00:18 ◼   ► shrunken Apple TV yeah well he said that and he said he believes it'll be a die

00:00:22 ◼   ► shrink which makes sense because the full size one would be too much heat for

00:00:25 ◼   ► that probably. And of course, if you're going to have a die-shrunk A5X, that's going to

00:00:30 ◼   ► be a really inexpensive way to retina-ify the Mini while still maintaining good separation

00:00:37 ◼   ► for people to buy the high-priced one with the faster chip and keep those margins a little

00:00:42 ◼   ► bit healthier on the Mini.

00:00:43 ◼   ► Steven: The reason I totally believe it for the Apple TV is because you said it yourself,

00:00:47 ◼   ► they're going to put the ones there with two of the GPU cores burned out. Because you've

00:00:52 ◼   ► got four GPU cores in there, and it's like, all right, we're going to have a lot of parts

00:00:55 ◼   ► where one of those four GPU cores is no good, right to the Apple TV, because it does not

00:00:59 ◼   ► need more. Maybe they'll intentionally burn out two. Even if one fails, they will intentionally

00:01:03 ◼   ► short out two of them.

00:01:04 ◼   ► Right, because the CPU in the current one is an A5 with one core burned out.

00:01:08 ◼   ► Right, and crappy GPU. So if you put an A5X in there, it's like, now we've got four cores.

00:01:13 ◼   ► If any one of them is bad, we're going to intentionally burn out two of them just to

00:01:16 ◼   ► save power, and you know what I mean? Because it's 1080p. It's the max resolution. You do

00:01:21 ◼   ► not need four cores for that, right? So, I'm just, I'm upset that it's an A5X in all likelihood.

00:01:28 ◼   ► I'm upset because the A5X is a shitty CPU for iPad programming because it, you know,

00:01:34 ◼   ► it's four times the graphics power, but the same CPU power. And so, CPU-bound graphics

00:01:41 ◼   ► operations become four times slower than an iPad 2, and that's really, really terrible.

00:01:48 ◼   ► I don't know, like, for the Apple TV, I totally believe that it's gonna be A5Xs with stuff

00:01:53 ◼   ► shorted out.

00:01:54 ◼   ► Oh yeah, because the Apple TV doesn't matter.

00:01:55 ◼   ► But if they then put that...

00:01:56 ◼   ► But for the Retina Mini, the Retina Mini, I still think that's gonna be an A6.

00:01:59 ◼   ► Yeah, I hope so.

00:02:01 ◼   ► But if that's the case, then why, besides, I guess, having a bunch of extra, you know,

00:02:05 ◼   ► binned out A5Xs, but then why would they put the A5X in the Apple TV?

00:02:10 ◼   ► I think that's what it is.

00:02:11 ◼   ► I think it's like, they made the iPad 3 for a long time, right?

00:02:16 ◼   ► Not really, like seven months.

00:02:17 ◼   ► I know, but they sold a lot of them. It's not like how many Apple TVs they sell in those

00:02:22 ◼   ► seven months versus how many iPad 3s they sell. The mini wasn't even around. The iPad

00:02:26 ◼   ► 3, I guess they had the iPad 2 still around.

00:02:27 ◼   ► I guess. Maybe because it's such a large die, they had a whole bunch of failures.

00:02:29 ◼   ► I think it's because that chip is such a big monster that they had to have a lot of rejects

00:02:34 ◼   ► and they're looking for something to do with those rejects because otherwise what are you

00:02:37 ◼   ► going to do? You throw them away, right?

00:02:39 ◼   ► Yeah, I guess that's true.

00:02:40 ◼   ► It's basically like FreeMun. What do you do? You put it in your crappy low-selling little

00:02:45 ◼   ► TV thing. You've got them laying around, they're probably telling them, "Don't throw those

00:02:49 ◼   ► out. Just keep them on the side." "Well, think of something for those." "Well, here you go,

00:02:52 ◼   ► Apple TV." That's if you believe that in terms of it. It seems like I looked at his investigative

00:02:57 ◼   ► work and I buy it.

00:03:00 ◼   ► I don't think he would post something that confidently without having good stuff to back

00:03:04 ◼   ► it up. I believe it, too. That's why I figure the only two options, the only two explanations

00:03:09 ◼   ► are using up old bin chips or upcoming Retina iPad Mini using that particular die shrink

00:03:17 ◼   ► of that particular chip, but I really don't want that to be true. So I just hate that

00:03:21 ◼   ► chip so much.

00:03:24 ◼   ► It depends on how desperate they are. I think they are for Retina Mini. I always assumed

00:03:27 ◼   ► a Retina Mini would not arrive for like a year.

00:03:29 ◼   ► Yeah, I was thinking like next Thanksgiving season, you know, next fall.

00:03:33 ◼   ► Right, exactly.

00:03:34 ◼   ► But this could be for them.

00:03:35 ◼   ► Apple's doing some crazy things these days. What the hell with the 128 gigabyte thing?

00:03:38 ◼   ► That was a weird, like why now?

00:03:41 ◼   ► - I've seen it, there's lots of theories.

00:03:43 ◼   ► I like, my favorite one was,

00:03:45 ◼   ► they just got off this, their earnings thing

00:03:49 ◼   ► where people yell to them about their margins.

00:03:50 ◼   ► You're like, fine, you want our stupid margins to go up here.

00:03:52 ◼   ► We'll just throw in an even higher margin on my pay

00:03:55 ◼   ► 'cause the margins of that thing has just gotta be monstrous.

00:03:57 ◼   ► - But no one's gonna buy it.

00:03:58 ◼   ► - I know, but it's like, well, they'll say,

00:04:00 ◼   ► look, we can do this, we can make this thing.

00:04:02 ◼   ► If we make this thing, we're gonna sell

00:04:04 ◼   ► a non-zero number of them

00:04:05 ◼   ► and the margins are gonna be awesome.

00:04:07 ◼   ► and they probably have some demand from some people who want it, so like, you know what, fine.

00:04:11 ◼   ► Slap in 28 gigs, sell it for a ridiculous price.

00:04:15 ◼   ► Like, what chance will that--because pretty soon they're gonna have to do the line shift,

00:04:18 ◼   ► where they do like, okay, 16s are gone, it's 32, 64, 128, all for the same price points, you know.

00:04:24 ◼   ► Like, that's gonna happen eventually.

00:04:26 ◼   ► This is their one chance to sell 128 gigs with a ridiculous markup,

00:04:31 ◼   ► and it's, you know, it doesn't bring the margins down, right?

00:04:35 ◼   ► The Mini is dragging their iPad margins down.

00:04:37 ◼   ► Like how can we pull the iPad margins back up while you put a higher-end model in there?

00:04:41 ◼   ► Well, it's like it's off cycle. It's weird

00:04:44 ◼   ► What if what if this actually it like, you know

00:04:47 ◼   ► The same way the iPad 4 came out only like seven months after the three

00:04:50 ◼   ► what if they really are moving to a more more like twice a year update schedule because the iPhone and iPad are their most important products and

00:04:56 ◼   ► And they often get dinged in comparisons and the press and reviews and everything because they're old because they they're there

00:05:04 ◼   ► shipping an 11 month old model against somebody's brand new thing with a brand new core and

00:05:09 ◼   ► a brand new radio and stuff like that.

00:05:11 ◼   ► What if they do move too?

00:05:13 ◼   ► They always have to balance that.

00:05:15 ◼   ► They're always getting dings in comparison to whatever the hell the latest Android phone

00:05:19 ◼   ► is, but any individual Android phone, the makers want to be on the market for some period

00:05:24 ◼   ► of time because you just don't get the economies of scale unless you sell it for a couple of

00:05:27 ◼   ► months at least.

00:05:28 ◼   ► Right.

00:05:29 ◼   ► So it's got to strike a balance between not being...

00:05:32 ◼   ► They're just one maker.

00:05:33 ◼   ► never going to be, except for like when they first introduce a phone, then they can be

00:05:37 ◼   ► a little bit ahead of everybody else, but everyone else will catch up immediately. They

00:05:39 ◼   ► just have to be okay with three months, six months of just being a little bit behind,

00:05:43 ◼   ► because during that time they're like cranking on, you know. So I totally buy trying to go

00:05:49 ◼   ► to an eight month or a six month cycle or a twice a year cycle, especially if they stick

00:05:52 ◼   ► with the like 4S, 4S, 5S cadence where you just, you know, upgrade the guts. And also

00:05:58 ◼   ► especially since like we went you know Edge 3G LTE in a pretty quick

00:06:06 ◼   ► sequence relatively speaking there's nothing surpassing LTE except for maybe

00:06:09 ◼   ► you know 802.11ac that's gonna have to be have to go in there and screw with

00:06:13 ◼   ► the radio so they'll be able to iterate on the other parts with like right you

00:06:16 ◼   ► know let's relax for a little bit we have like a world phone that does LTE

00:06:20 ◼   ► and all these other things one or two more revs of that and you know it's not

00:06:24 ◼   ► a total upheaval where we go from 3G to LTE and have to support all, you know what I mean?

00:06:28 ◼   ► Right. And like the retina screen is done, they're probably not going to go with a more

00:06:31 ◼   ► dense screen. Quad retina.

00:06:32 ◼   ► Right. That doesn't make sense. They could go bigger, maybe, you know, and that's honestly,

00:06:38 ◼   ► I think they have to go bigger just to keep competitive in the market. Like, I think,

00:06:42 ◼   ► I don't think they have to make their only model bigger, but I think they have to have a bigger

00:06:46 ◼   ► model because even though we all make fun of these phablet things, they're really popular. Like,

00:06:50 ◼   ► yeah, people love them. I don't get it. It doesn't need to be a phablet. It just

00:06:53 ◼   ► needs to be like right now it's galaxy next to the same. Right now it's like a skinny four inches. I think they need to have

00:06:58 ◼   ► like a more reasonably like a you know a 3x2 proportioned four and a half.

00:07:06 ◼   ► It's like the iBook G4 that was 800 by 600. Old people loved it. They loved it.

00:07:10 ◼   ► Everything was so big you could actually see things. You could use your big fat

00:07:13 ◼   ► old person finger to like they just got to make a 4.5 inch or you know iPhone

00:07:18 ◼   ► same res. You know just blow it up. The screen will be I bet the screen would

00:07:22 ◼   ► probably be cheaper because like the density will be lower so even though the

00:07:25 ◼   ► screen is bigger probably cost Apple less money to make you could put an even

00:07:28 ◼   ► bigger battery in there so that thing like lasts forever I mean you'll get all

00:07:31 ◼   ► these awesome advantages. Well you know what actually so so on you know how the

00:07:35 ◼   ► the LCD cutting theory kind of predicted the mini what if you do the math

00:07:39 ◼   ► backwards what if you cut the the retina full-sized iPad screen to retina iPhone

00:07:46 ◼   ► resolution, how big is that?

00:07:50 ◼   ► That's a huge question. If you would, say that again.

00:07:53 ◼   ► So the way we predicted the Mini was by saying, alright, if you just take the 3GS screen and make it the same

00:07:58 ◼   ► iPad resolution, do it backwards from the full-sized Retina iPad,

00:08:02 ◼   ► from that physical size, or from that DPI rather, how big

00:08:06 ◼   ► would an iPhone 5 resolution screen be at that DPI?

00:08:10 ◼   ► I don't think you need to do that. I think you just need to decide how much bigger than

00:08:14 ◼   ► do you want it and just make the screen that big?

00:08:16 ◼   ► Like I don't, you know, the screen cutting theory,

00:08:18 ◼   ► the thing about the screen cutting theory is even if you

00:08:20 ◼   ► 100% buy that that's how the technology of manufacturing

00:08:23 ◼   ► LCDs work, I think Apple changes their screen supplier

00:08:26 ◼   ► like every single device because they're always chasing

00:08:28 ◼   ► the next guy with the next best deal who's gonna offer them

00:08:31 ◼   ► the better screen for less money.

00:08:33 ◼   ► Like, you know, the LG, Sharp, Samsung.

00:08:35 ◼   ► - But they also always have volume problems.

00:08:38 ◼   ► They always are like short-circuited on screens.

00:08:41 ◼   ► Like they always need more screens.

00:08:42 ◼   ► Well, that's why they go with dual. They have multiple suppliers.

00:08:46 ◼   ► But once you have multiple suppliers...

00:08:48 ◼   ► But if you standardize on a couple of sizes, and if that cutting theory is correct,

00:08:53 ◼   ► then you can dramatically increase your yields and simplify everything by only having two DPI's that you buy screens at.

00:08:59 ◼   ► But only if you're sticking with someone...

00:09:01 ◼   ► Only if the guy who is making you your Retina iPad screens is also the same guy you're going to get to make your iPhone Plus-size screens.

00:09:09 ◼   ► And I think when the iPhone Plus goes out,

00:09:11 ◼   ► they just rebid the entire thing.

00:09:12 ◼   ► And they give no particular waiter advantage

00:09:16 ◼   ► to the guy who was making the screens of the same DPI

00:09:18 ◼   ► for some device, especially as far distance as the iPad 3.

00:09:21 ◼   ► Like they just rebid every time, two best manufacturers,

00:09:26 ◼   ► especially with the IGZO stuff,

00:09:27 ◼   ► I forget what the hell that stands for.

00:09:28 ◼   ► - Yeah, the in-cell and blah, blah, blah.

00:09:30 ◼   ► - Yeah, whoever's offering that,

00:09:33 ◼   ► if that guy who was doing the iPad 3 screens,

00:09:34 ◼   ► whether it's Sharp or whatever, or Samsung,

00:09:37 ◼   ► if they can't offer the IGZO thing, but that guy can't,

00:09:39 ◼   ► I think they just rebid all the time and just set the suppliers against each other like

00:09:42 ◼   ► dogs and just wait to see who comes out, you know, surviving.

00:09:45 ◼   ► Like, that's the TSMC thing or TM whatever, like, get it back.

00:09:50 ◼   ► Yeah, TSMC.

00:09:51 ◼   ► Taiwan Semiconductor.

00:09:52 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:09:53 ◼   ► Those guys like...

00:09:54 ◼   ► There was an magazine article about them.

00:09:55 ◼   ► Yeah, I know.

00:09:56 ◼   ► I read.

00:09:57 ◼   ► Like, they're obviously so incredibly hungry, but just, I mean, you follow video card manufacturing

00:10:00 ◼   ► in the ATI NVIDIA wars back in those days.

00:10:03 ◼   ► They both manufactured it at TSMC and it was sometimes good and sometimes disastrous.

00:10:09 ◼   ► So I don't doubt that they're hungry.

00:10:11 ◼   ► I do worry that they're going to make a deal that Apple will accept because it's an awesome

00:10:17 ◼   ► deal and then just not be able to deliver and we're all going to be sad.

00:10:21 ◼   ► So I have two questions.

00:10:23 ◼   ► Firstly, if you take a iPhone Plus that is not retina by standard iPhone standards because

00:10:30 ◼   ► if and it's late and I'm tired but the DPI of the Retina iPad is considerably less than

00:10:35 ◼   ► the DPI of the iPhone Retina.

00:10:37 ◼   ► Considerably, isn't it?

00:10:38 ◼   ► Like, what is it, Margaret?

00:10:39 ◼   ► Well, okay.

00:10:40 ◼   ► Like, one is 264 and the other one is like...

00:10:42 ◼   ► It's like 312 versus 264, something like that.

00:10:45 ◼   ► Yes.

00:10:46 ◼   ► Well, that's somewhat considerable.

00:10:47 ◼   ► So anyway, so if they make an iPhone Plus with the 264 DPI, don't you think they'll

00:10:51 ◼   ► get raked over the coals?

00:10:52 ◼   ► Be like, "Oh, well, this isn't really...

00:10:53 ◼   ► No, it'll still be fine.

00:10:54 ◼   ► It'll still be the old people phone.

00:10:55 ◼   ► Old people can't see those pixels.

00:10:59 ◼   ► My parents could not see the difference between an iPad 2 and 3.

00:11:02 ◼   ► When I showed them right in the store in front of them, I said, "These are the two things."

00:11:05 ◼   ► I made them get a 3 anyway, but they literally could not tell the difference.

00:11:10 ◼   ► I intentionally brought up some text and I held it an inch from their face and said,

00:11:13 ◼   ► "See how you can see the picture?"

00:11:14 ◼   ► Like, "Oh yeah, I can kind of see it."

00:11:16 ◼   ► It's like, "Just get the 3."

00:11:17 ◼   ► But anyway, like, old people phone, I'm telling you.

00:11:21 ◼   ► Things are bigger on the screen.

00:11:22 ◼   ► They need it to be bigger.

00:11:23 ◼   ► They need it to be bigger so they don't drop it.

00:11:25 ◼   ► So it's like just bigger and heavier and bigger pictures and bigger place for their fat fingers

00:11:29 ◼   ► touch. They love it. Bigger picture for the grandkids.

00:11:32 ◼   ► The other question was going to be, well, does Apple really give a shit either way?

00:11:35 ◼   ► You know, if they do get raked over the coals, do they really care?

00:11:37 ◼   ► No, as long as they sell them. They won't. People will not complain.

00:11:40 ◼   ► Like, it will not be, you know, it's like, well, it's not real red. It's fine.

00:11:43 ◼   ► Like, you know, look at all the other phones that are 8 bazillion different resolutions.

00:11:46 ◼   ► It's basically like, can you see the pixels or can you not see them?

00:11:48 ◼   ► And 264 is definitely still in the not-see realm.

00:11:52 ◼   ► Oh, yeah. And especially, like, if the phone itself is bigger, you're not going to hold it as close to your face.

00:11:58 ◼   ► Yeah, that's what the old people don't like. They don't like to have the thing, you know.

00:12:02 ◼   ► They want to hold it away, like the old people holding the books away so they can read it,

00:12:05 ◼   ► because otherwise they don't have their reading glasses. They need to get it farther away,

00:12:08 ◼   ► but you get an iPhone 5 at arm's length and suddenly you can't read the tiny texture.

00:12:11 ◼   ► Honestly, I might consider getting one of the bigger ones if that was the option. Like

00:12:15 ◼   ► if it was otherwise just as good, just a little bit bigger.

00:12:17 ◼   ► I managed to go this whole Skype session without making a short joke, even when you talked

00:12:21 ◼   ► about how they were trying to give you a mini, and now you're telling me you want to get

00:12:24 ◼   ► the five inch iPhone. No Marco, you have to get the small one. It's the correct size for

00:12:28 ◼   ► you. It's properly proportioned. It's arm and size. It's size for your family. Is your

00:12:33 ◼   ► family all small or is it just you? Yeah, they're all small. So that's what I'm saying.

00:12:37 ◼   ► You're the Hobbit derived people. You've got to stick with it. You cannot get, you're forbidden

00:12:40 ◼   ► from getting the giant iPhone. It's too big for you. I just want something extremely nerdy.

00:12:46 ◼   ► I have, I just made in Photoshop a quick image mockup, putting the right size rectangle,

00:12:53 ◼   ► to myself putting onto my iPad it is about 4.8 inches diagonally. Yeah. I mean

00:13:02 ◼   ► that may be a little big I would say 4.65 is as big as I can see them

00:13:07 ◼   ► going for the iPad Plus because I don't know you're holding it in front of you. It's not that bad.

00:13:11 ◼   ► If you printed it out can you have you have you held like I didn't print that I

00:13:14 ◼   ► emailed that I emailed the image to my iPad so I could look at it on the screen at 1x.

00:13:19 ◼   ► Honestly, it isn't that much bigger. Like, it's not...

00:13:22 ◼   ► Have you held the Lumia 920? Like, the big monster Windows phones?

00:13:27 ◼   ► No. Only that very first one that was not a monster. The 700?

00:13:32 ◼   ► I have held the big monster phones, and there's something to be said for like... It's got

00:13:36 ◼   ► like heft. It feels like you could fend off a mugger with this thing. Like, it's big.

00:13:41 ◼   ► It's a little bit heavier, but it just fills your hand more than the other thing does,

00:13:47 ◼   ► And I think some people just like that.

00:13:49 ◼   ► I wouldn't like it because I can't imagine trying to stick that in a pocket.

00:13:53 ◼   ► I like the small, thin form factor, but I think some people like the bigger ones, and

00:13:57 ◼   ► it definitely gives a different feel.

00:14:00 ◼   ► So you have it there on your screen.

00:14:02 ◼   ► Cut out a piece of paper.

00:14:04 ◼   ► Make your own little papercraft iPhone Plus, and then make a blog post with you holding

00:14:07 ◼   ► it, and there you go.

00:14:09 ◼   ► But again, he can't be the one holding it because he's hobbit-sized.

00:14:11 ◼   ► Yeah, well, your wife's not normal-sized, is she?

00:14:15 ◼   ► She's also small, right?

00:14:16 ◼   ► She's actually taller than me.

00:14:17 ◼   ► She's like an inch and a half taller than me.

00:14:19 ◼   ► Is she?

00:14:20 ◼   ► Adam is.

00:14:21 ◼   ► But give it to Adam.

00:14:22 ◼   ► Because it'll be adorable.

00:14:23 ◼   ► I love the fan movie of him watching the fan in the store.

00:14:27 ◼   ► Oh yeah.

00:14:28 ◼   ► So you use Vine apparently.

00:14:30 ◼   ► I do not use Vine, but I click on the links when your wife posts a picture of a baby looking

00:14:34 ◼   ► at a fan.