The Talk Show

00:00:00 ◼   ► Are you geared up?

00:00:02 ◼   ► To stalk cute girls at the ski lodge

00:00:09 ◼   ► Can you imagine not having?

00:00:12 ◼   ► Galaxy gear at CES. It's like they don't even let you in

00:00:17 ◼   ► They hand them out at the airport I

00:00:20 ◼   ► Saw I took a I don't even know why I don't know I took a stupid poll

00:00:28 ◼   ► I somebody linked to it on Twitter on time Time magazine site today

00:00:32 ◼   ► It was like answer these questions and will predict your political leaning and they're not political questions ostensibly

00:00:42 ◼   ► You know, it's not like you know, what do you think about gun control or something like that?

00:00:48 ◼   ► And I came out 72%

00:00:52 ◼   ► conservative

00:00:54 ◼   ► according to this and one of them was that

00:00:56 ◼   ► conservative qualities was that I like dogs more than cats

00:00:59 ◼   ► Interesting, but I don't think that that's I think that's nonsense. I mean, I'm not saying that I don't think that there's any kind of I

00:01:07 ◼   ► Don't know. Maybe I'm wrong though. Maybe if you pulled a thousand people maybe you know, maybe conservatives do like dogs more than

00:01:15 ◼   ► Liberals, I don't know. It seems crazy to me

00:01:18 ◼   ► It seems that the the internet has

00:01:22 ◼   ► Embrace cats more than dogs. I don't know why

00:01:27 ◼   ► But I don't like cats at all

00:01:30 ◼   ► Yeah, I probably just lost a lot of my audience there. Sorry

00:01:35 ◼   ► We talk about baseball. Yeah. No, we should talk about we could talk about the pappies. Yeah

00:01:42 ◼   ► Well for people who don't know but there's there's a

00:01:48 ◼   ► Well bourbon is a very complex story, but there's a bourbon brand called pappy van Winkle

00:01:53 ◼   ► And and I guess they were out for a while, you know like back in the 70s or 80s

00:01:57 ◼   ► I don't know and they brought it back and they had this old mash and they've you know, it's a high-end brand and they have various

00:02:04 ◼   ► What would you call it vintages ages, you know, there's tenure pappies 12 year pappies a

00:02:11 ◼   ► 13 year old rye which I believe since it's a rye is an entirely different mash

00:02:17 ◼   ► It's really sort of it's the same brand, but it's a different beverage. There's a 15 year pappies

00:02:22 ◼   ► 20 year and then there's a 23

00:02:24 ◼   ► And I think long story short, you know, it was it's sort of an aficionados brand and you know

00:02:32 ◼   ► The older it is the more expensive it was and it was always a little hard to find and a little expensive

00:02:36 ◼   ► but then somehow at some point in the last two years or so it it it like

00:02:42 ◼   ► exploded and everybody got on, you know kind of caught on to the

00:02:46 ◼   ► the this pappy van Winkle stuff is fantastic.

00:02:49 ◼   ► And now it's impossible to get any of it.

00:02:53 ◼   ► More or less. - I had never heard of it

00:02:54 ◼   ► until there was a scandal about it being stolen or something.

00:02:59 ◼   ► - That is correct. - I'd never heard of it.

00:03:02 ◼   ► And then like, I don't know, six months ago or something,

00:03:06 ◼   ► it was like, pappy's is a huge deal.

00:03:09 ◼   ► You need to care about it.

00:03:11 ◼   ► And I had never heard of it.

00:03:12 ◼   ► - There was a inside job at the,

00:03:16 ◼   ► I don't know if it's the distillery

00:03:17 ◼   ► or if it's just where they store it,

00:03:19 ◼   ► but it was an inside job and a whole bunch of cases of it

00:03:22 ◼   ► were stolen about six months ago.

00:03:24 ◼   ► I believe the crime has still gone unsolved.

00:03:27 ◼   ► And Pennsylvania-- - Is that what you were

00:03:31 ◼   ► drinking? - No, I don't know.

00:03:32 ◼   ► Everybody was joking about that.

00:03:34 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:03:35 ◼   ► I don't think so.

00:03:36 ◼   ► Pennsylvania is a weird state where everybody,

00:03:37 ◼   ► including bars, has to buy stuff through the state.

00:03:41 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:03:44 ◼   ► and gets very tricky for bars to obtain it.

00:03:47 ◼   ► But a local establishment, we're very close to me here,

00:03:51 ◼   ► great barbecue place.

00:03:52 ◼   ► Also, clearly a great bar, Percy Street Barbecue

00:03:56 ◼   ► at 9th and South here in Philadelphia.

00:04:00 ◼   ► Got their hands on the full six flights,

00:04:04 ◼   ► the full six varieties of stuff from the Van Winkle Distillery,

00:04:09 ◼   ► and had a special event yesterday at 5 o'clock.

00:04:13 ◼   ► I had no idea how it was going to go, but I figured it was going to fill up quick, so

00:04:16 ◼   ► I got there before five, which was good because I think they said by like 5.15 they were out.

00:04:22 ◼   ► Well, what they did, and I think it was pretty smart, so they had all six.

00:04:27 ◼   ► I can't help but think they had more of the lesser varieties, but when you came in the

00:04:33 ◼   ► door for the event, there was a guy at the front door, and you had to tell him there

00:04:37 ◼   ► was a limit of three ounces per patron of anything.

00:04:42 ◼   ► person could only get three ounces, and you had to pick it as you came in and they would

00:04:46 ◼   ► give you like a little chip. So I picked two ounces of 23 and one ounce of 20. So I got

00:04:54 ◼   ► two chips for 23 and one for 20. And then you know, you could use that as you wanted

00:05:00 ◼   ► if I wanted a single two ounce pour of 23 I could have turned into I went 111 I went

00:05:07 ◼   ► 123 than one of the 20 just sort of you know, see what the difference was and then back to the 23

00:05:14 ◼   ► And and they advertised it as not breaking the bank because I think they could have charged an arm and a leg for the stuff

00:05:21 ◼   ► but they charged

00:05:22 ◼   ► Very very fair prices. Yeah, cuz that's part of the legend too that that you cost

00:05:27 ◼   ► $200 for a glass of the you know, the good stuff. Yeah

00:05:32 ◼   ► Well, and then now that it's gotten crazy like I mean quick look on eBay here

00:05:36 ◼   ► People are selling one thing you search from on eBay for for pappy van Winkle, most of what you

00:05:45 ◼   ► find are empty bottles, people just selling the bottles, which I can't help but think it. I mean,

00:05:53 ◼   ► who wants an empty? I mean, maybe I can see why some people might want to keep a bottle that they

00:05:58 ◼   ► drank if it was a special occasion. Keep it as a memento or something like that. But why would you

00:06:06 ◼   ► want to buy an empty bottle from somebody else unless you were looking to like fill

00:06:11 ◼   ► it up with something else and sell it.

00:06:15 ◼   ► You know, I don't get it.

00:06:17 ◼   ► Well, when I was in like high school and college, I used to order a lot of beer branded nonsense

00:06:24 ◼   ► off eBay, you know, Zippo lighter and inflatable fish and stuff just weird, like Miller High

00:06:31 ◼   ► Life crap, which I thought was cool.

00:06:34 ◼   ► But yeah, I don't know why you would order an empty bottle of...

00:06:38 ◼   ► I've heard...

00:06:39 ◼   ► I can't even find it here on eBay, but some people have said that...

00:06:42 ◼   ► I don't even know how legal it is.

00:06:44 ◼   ► I guess in certain states it's legal to sell alcohol on eBay.

00:06:48 ◼   ► But that on the secondhand market, the 23-year Pappy Van Winkle is going for like $2,000,

00:06:54 ◼   ► $2,500 a bottle, because it's just you can't get it.

00:06:59 ◼   ► The retail price is a lot less than...

00:07:00 ◼   ► I think the retail price for the 23 is a couple hundred bucks.

00:07:05 ◼   ► - And is it awesome?

00:07:07 ◼   ► - I don't think any bourbon is worth

00:07:10 ◼   ► a couple hundred bucks a bottle, frankly.

00:07:12 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

00:07:13 ◼   ► I like to spend the money on,

00:07:14 ◼   ► I do like to indulge and buy good stuff in life,

00:07:17 ◼   ► including finer, I like bourbon,

00:07:20 ◼   ► so I like to buy good bourbon.

00:07:22 ◼   ► But to me, it isn't even what I could theoretically afford.

00:07:28 ◼   ► It's like at a certain point, it's just bourbon.

00:07:30 ◼   ► You know, and it's like--

00:07:31 ◼   ► - Yeah, exactly.

00:07:32 ◼   ► - You can't drink that much at a time.

00:07:33 ◼   ► And I'm very, very, I feel pretty confident

00:07:36 ◼   ► that I would fail to do a Pepsi challenge between a,

00:07:41 ◼   ► or it would be like a coin flip.

00:07:46 ◼   ► I don't know that I could taste the difference between.

00:07:49 ◼   ► Like you could, if you put six bourbons in front of me

00:07:54 ◼   ► and said one of these is 23 Pappy Van Winkle,

00:07:56 ◼   ► I'm not entirely sure at all that I could figure that out.

00:08:00 ◼   ► - Does it have, you know, Pappy in general,

00:08:01 ◼   ► does it have like a strong noticeable taste or flavor

00:08:05 ◼   ► or is it just bourbon that's good?

00:08:07 ◼   ► - Well, one thing that they're, and it came out recently,

00:08:10 ◼   ► is that the one thing that they do differently

00:08:14 ◼   ► than a lot of other bourbons, or almost all of the bourbons,

00:08:16 ◼   ► is that they have a higher, or no, it's all,

00:08:21 ◼   ► an all wheat that they don't,

00:08:24 ◼   ► They put the minimum amount of corn in.

00:08:29 ◼   ► That there's another bourbon called JL Weller, which is made from the same mash.

00:08:36 ◼   ► There was this thing I linked to on Daring Fireball a month or two ago, which it tried

00:08:42 ◼   ► to explain the complicated relationship between various bourbons and rye's in Kentucky and

00:08:49 ◼   ► Tennessee and Ohio and the other places where they're made in the US.

00:08:54 ◼   ► all these really just two vats right yeah more or less where there's only a

00:08:57 ◼   ► couple of what they call that they start with a mash and then the mash you know

00:09:01 ◼   ► it's sold to these distilleries to turn into bourbon but you know and

00:09:06 ◼   ► presumably what happens is they'll take the same mash that's meant to you know

00:09:10 ◼   ► in pappies the pappy van Winkle distillery will buy it and they'll

00:09:14 ◼   ► they'll put it you know they'll put it into barrels for aging and then they'll

00:09:20 ◼   ► sample these every couple years just to see you know, how's this

00:09:24 ◼   ► barrel going? How's this barrel going? And that the better the

00:09:26 ◼   ► barrel, the more the longer you know, they'll let it go and only

00:09:30 ◼   ► the best of those barrels will go for the full 23 years and

00:09:33 ◼   ► that the lesser ones will, you know, they'll say okay, this

00:09:36 ◼   ► one, let's just bottle this one at 10. This one's, you know,

00:09:39 ◼   ► it's not going to get any better. And then they'll bottle

00:09:41 ◼   ► it. But that there's this other brand JL Weller, which is it

00:09:45 ◼   ► retails for like, I think it's like 1819 bucks a bottle, but

00:09:49 ◼   ► it's made from the same mash as pappy and that it's effectively you know like

00:09:56 ◼   ► a poor man's pappy it's more or less like the same mash but like the stuff

00:09:59 ◼   ► that wasn't good enough to be turned into pappies and that yeah it does taste

00:10:03 ◼   ► a lot like pappies it's smooth but ginger ale in it who cares you know just

00:10:07 ◼   ► I know what is is that they don't put any rye at all in that in their mash and

00:10:15 ◼   ► so you know if you know just basic American whiskies you know the

00:10:21 ◼   ► difference between bourbon and rye is that rye is sort of peppery and hot is

00:10:27 ◼   ► the basic difference between a basic bourbon and a basic rye. Pappies to me

00:10:31 ◼   ► and it's not just knowing that it doesn't have rye it's like sort of the

00:10:35 ◼   ► taste of it is sort of what rye is to bourbon Pappy is the opposite to regular

00:10:41 ◼   ► bourbon. It's less peppery, less hot and smoother and really is a lot more drinkable neat.

00:10:48 ◼   ► Anyway, the tasting was pretty neat. Cool. Yeah, I'll definitely have to try it sometime.

00:10:54 ◼   ► But you know, and it's and I did, I Instagrammed it and everybody's like, I got to go there. But

00:10:58 ◼   ► it was like, it was like a one time only thing. Yeah. You had 15 minutes to come in and get these

00:11:02 ◼   ► tokens and then we drank them out of it. That's awesome. Yeah, I was just in Tokyo and I brought

00:11:07 ◼   ► back some whiskey but I haven't really had a chance to crack into it yet.

00:11:14 ◼   ► The other thing I thought was definitely true is side by side going from the 23 to the 20

00:11:19 ◼   ► and back to the 23 I absolutely tasted the difference.

00:11:24 ◼   ► The 23 which I think I only had once before in my life and it was on a trip to Vancouver

00:11:33 ◼   ► three or four years ago with a bunch of friends for somebody's birthday.

00:11:39 ◼   ► It was before the whole Pappy's thing exploded.

00:11:43 ◼   ► Me and my pal Jim Ray saw it on the list of the whiskeys available.

00:11:51 ◼   ► We're like, "How can this possibly be?"

00:11:53 ◼   ► It was like a totally reasonable price per pour.

00:11:55 ◼   ► I don't know, like $20 a pour.

00:11:58 ◼   ► We asked, we're like, "Are you sure it's 23?"

00:12:00 ◼   ► They were like, "Yeah."

00:12:01 ◼   ► They even showed us the bottle and we, you know,

00:12:02 ◼   ► you had like two of them, uh, at like $20 a pour, which was unbelievable.

00:12:07 ◼   ► Um, uh, but anyway, I think the difference for anybody who cares is that the,

00:12:14 ◼   ► the 23 is a little bit, I don't know, a little bit nuttier and a little bit

00:12:20 ◼   ► spicier. I don't know. It definitely,

00:12:22 ◼   ► it's almost a little bit less like what I've associated with regular pappies.

00:12:27 ◼   ► Like, whereas the 20 is that smoother,

00:12:30 ◼   ► wow, that's definitely,

00:12:32 ◼   ► it was like the platonic ideal of Pappy.

00:12:35 ◼   ► - Which one is like the, you know,

00:12:40 ◼   ► I wouldn't say the most common,

00:12:41 ◼   ► but the one that's kind of associated the most

00:12:43 ◼   ► with being the good one?

00:12:44 ◼   ► Is it the 20 or the 23?

00:12:46 ◼   ► - I don't know.

00:12:48 ◼   ► I guess the 20 and the 23 are both fairly rare.

00:12:50 ◼   ► I've almost never seen them.

00:12:52 ◼   ► It used to be not that hard to find them.

00:12:54 ◼   ► like what was that what's that shithole bar in San Francisco oh the tempest no

00:13:01 ◼   ► not that one a little bit step up except the bathroom I don't know Jesus I forget

00:13:13 ◼   ► the name of it but it's like across the street from the palace hotel I always

00:13:17 ◼   ► forget the name but anyway they used to just have it I mean you know and you

00:13:23 ◼   ► know like 16 17 dollars a pour then you know they ran out the park 55 hotel bar

00:13:28 ◼   ► used to have the 12-year just sitting there and you could get it and you know

00:13:32 ◼   ► wasn't exorbitantly priced back in the old days I think the 12-year was the one

00:13:37 ◼   ► that I used to see the most often like not quite the youngest but not not aged

00:13:41 ◼   ► all that much I'm gonna keep an eye out for it sort of ties into CES - I remember

00:13:52 ◼   ► the because I go to Vegas a couple times a year the the Wynn Hotel and casino used to

00:13:58 ◼   ► have pappies on the list you know and again very you know it's you know it's a the Vegas

00:14:05 ◼   ► strip and everything's a little bit expensive and the Wynn and Encore is you know supposed

00:14:08 ◼   ► to be the the best place on the strip so everything's you know even more expensive but like totally

00:14:14 ◼   ► reasonable it was you know like a typical pour of a good bourbon that Wynn or Encore

00:14:18 ◼   ► is like I don't know 12 13 14 dollars and they used to have pappies for like 16. It's crazy and

00:14:24 ◼   ► of course not anymore it's not even listed which brings us you gotta be in the uh the the big roller

00:14:31 ◼   ► or the yeah I'll bet if you get up to like the horses back there right the sky casino yeah

00:14:37 ◼   ► there's a button in the in the win and encore did we go in there you know I was there for opening

00:14:42 ◼   ► weekend and I haven't been there since I haven't been to Vegas in almost 10 years which is kind of

00:14:47 ◼   ► - It's kind of embarrassing.

00:14:48 ◼   ► - Yeah, that's a long time.

00:14:50 ◼   ► Yeah, you go in the elevator

00:14:55 ◼   ► and there's a button that says Sky Casino.

00:14:57 ◼   ► It's like the top floor.

00:14:58 ◼   ► And of course you can't press it.

00:14:59 ◼   ► You have to have like a special card to get in.

00:15:02 ◼   ► So I asked somebody at the hotel once,

00:15:04 ◼   ► I was like, what the hell's the Sky Casino?

00:15:06 ◼   ► And they're like, oh, you got, you don't,

00:15:07 ◼   ► that's like, it's like people with like $100,000 credit.

00:15:11 ◼   ► - Yeah, block, lot.

00:15:12 ◼   ► - Right.

00:15:13 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:15:15 ◼   ► It's like there's usually like a high limit,

00:15:18 ◼   ► most casinos have like a high limit area

00:15:20 ◼   ► where it's a lot of baccarat and blackjack tables

00:15:23 ◼   ► that start at like $100 minimum, maybe even higher

00:15:28 ◼   ► on the weekend.

00:15:29 ◼   ► It's like for the people who like that high limit lounge

00:15:31 ◼   ► is nowhere near high limit enough.

00:15:33 ◼   ► - Yeah, did you ever read that book,

00:15:35 ◼   ► oh, it's probably 10 years old now,

00:15:37 ◼   ► by a Wall Street Journal writer

00:15:39 ◼   ► who got I think a $40,000 advance

00:15:43 ◼   ► and the book was that he was gambling his advance away

00:15:46 ◼   ► in Vegas?

00:15:47 ◼   ► - No, I don't think so.

00:15:48 ◼   ► - Oh yeah, it was good.

00:15:49 ◼   ► I mean, especially for, you know,

00:15:51 ◼   ► then I had probably just turned 21,

00:15:53 ◼   ► so it was very exciting.

00:15:54 ◼   ► I was like, oh, this is the gambling

00:15:57 ◼   ► we can't afford to do back here.

00:15:59 ◼   ► - Was he like had a gambling problem,

00:16:03 ◼   ► or that was the premise, like he--

00:16:05 ◼   ► - That was the premise of the book.

00:16:06 ◼   ► - Right, like--

00:16:07 ◼   ► - So he's gonna take his advance,

00:16:08 ◼   ► gamble it, and then write about what happened.

00:16:11 ◼   ► - Huh.

00:16:12 ◼   ► and the kind of treatment he got and stuff like that.

00:16:14 ◼   ► - Yeah, and all the money he won and lost and won

00:16:17 ◼   ► and kind of interspersed with stories

00:16:20 ◼   ► about famous Vegas people and personalities.

00:16:23 ◼   ► - And he was a Wall Street Journal reporter?

00:16:26 ◼   ► - I think that was what the cover said.

00:16:28 ◼   ► You know, I don't know, could it just be a freelancer

00:16:30 ◼   ► or something, but yeah, something like that.

00:16:32 ◼   ► - We gotta find it, I'll put it in the show notes.

00:16:33 ◼   ► - Yeah, it was good.

00:16:35 ◼   ► - 40K?

00:16:36 ◼   ► - Yeah, something like that.

00:16:38 ◼   ► I'll find it, I'll send it to you.

00:16:40 ◼   ► - All right, that'd be great.

00:16:41 ◼   ► - Yeah, it was fun.

00:16:43 ◼   ► - Yeah, that would probably be a great way to do it.

00:16:45 ◼   ► And you might go further than you think with that.

00:16:48 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:16:49 ◼   ► - I forgot how long, he stayed there

00:16:52 ◼   ► until I think he got sick of it.

00:16:54 ◼   ► And then he still had some money or something,

00:16:56 ◼   ► and then he came back again and lost all of it maybe.

00:16:59 ◼   ► I don't remember.

00:17:00 ◼   ► I don't wanna spoil too much of it,

00:17:02 ◼   ► but something like that.

00:17:04 ◼   ► - Yeah, that's crazy.

00:17:06 ◼   ► Which brings us, of course, to CES.

00:17:08 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:17:09 ◼   ► has now become an annual tradition which is after CES. I have you on the show and we talk

00:17:16 ◼   ► about CES even though neither of us went or has ever gone.

00:17:19 ◼   ► Dave Asprey I've ever been.

00:17:20 ◼   ► Dave Asprey I've ever been.

00:17:21 ◼   ► Dave Asprey And I think last year, I actually re-listened

00:17:23 ◼   ► to it yesterday. I think we pledged to go this year so we can screw that up.

00:17:28 ◼   ► Dave Asprey Do you know what the funny part is? The funny

00:17:30 ◼   ► part is I asked you to be on the show this week because I thought, you know, I know you

00:17:33 ◼   ► weren't there. And, you know, I, for every reason that I asked you last year, it was

00:17:40 ◼   ► the same reason I thought you'd be a good guy to, you know, to talk about it, you know,

00:17:44 ◼   ► CES from afar this year. And then after I DM'd you and said, "Hey, can you, you know,

00:17:48 ◼   ► have time to do the show this week?" As soon as I hit send, I was like, "Hey, wait a minute,

00:17:52 ◼   ► deja vu. Didn't I do this last year?" And I quickly, I was like, "Oh, yeah." And then

00:17:55 ◼   ► I remembered that we agreed to go.

00:17:58 ◼   ► Yeah. And actually this year, even more than last year, I'm kind of mad that I didn't go

00:18:03 ◼   ► because everyone, you know, I don't want to repeat everything I said last time, we can just link to

00:18:08 ◼   ► that show. But everyone I know who was there for the right reasons seem to have a lot of fun.

00:18:15 ◼   ► Yeah, I totally agree. I, I, and again, we could just maybe we could just splice in all the audio

00:18:20 ◼   ► from last year. But no, I had that same feeling where like at the beginning, like, at the start of

00:18:28 ◼   ► of the... it seems like like if you go to cover the show in any sense whether

00:18:32 ◼   ► you're there to actually do like a hundred posts a week like The Verge or

00:18:36 ◼   ► Engadget or even if you're gonna take a saner more filtered approach you know

00:18:43 ◼   ► and and do a lot of the filtering before you present it to your reader like I

00:18:48 ◼   ► don't know like Pogue's new site or something like that or like my favorite

00:18:52 ◼   ► the Wirecutter who did one post for all of CES which is... I just I love it. It's so

00:18:57 ◼   ► awesome. They took like the most insane thing with 5000 vendors. It did one post, which

00:19:02 ◼   ► is so great. But even so it seems like you go there, you try to get there by Sunday.

00:19:08 ◼   ► Even though the show doesn't officially start till Tuesday, it seems like Sunday night,

00:19:11 ◼   ► the pre show stuff starts Monday, there's a lot of announcements. And then like Tuesday,

00:19:17 ◼   ► Wednesday, Thursday are like the main show days.

00:19:20 ◼   ► And I think the main like, you're already you're already sweaty. So that's when you

00:19:24 ◼   ► you just start drinking and gambling and whatever.

00:19:28 ◼   ► In preparation, I watched a bunch of The Verge videos

00:19:36 ◼   ► and looked at some of those,

00:19:38 ◼   ► every year there's the article of the

00:19:41 ◼   ► 10 most ridiculous things that we saw at CES

00:19:44 ◼   ► and that kind of stuff.

00:19:45 ◼   ► The kind of comparison that really sprung to mind

00:19:50 ◼   ► is another thing that I've of course never been to,

00:19:54 ◼   ► Burning Man, it's just like the same,

00:19:57 ◼   ► just a sea, like an endless sea of ridiculous nonsense

00:20:02 ◼   ► and a lot of garbage and people smell bad.

00:20:05 ◼   ► But if you're there for the right reasons,

00:20:07 ◼   ► it can be really fun.

00:20:09 ◼   ► - Yeah, I think the difference between Burning Man

00:20:12 ◼   ► and CES for me, and in some way,

00:20:15 ◼   ► like let's say daytime hours, both of them,

00:20:17 ◼   ► there's a sort of, I'd like to see it at least once.

00:20:20 ◼   ► But then in Burning Man at night,

00:20:22 ◼   ► you have to sleep in a dirty tent

00:20:24 ◼   ► Whereas at CES, you can sleep in a nice hotel.

00:20:28 ◼   ► - Totally.

00:20:30 ◼   ► - Which is a real big deal for me.

00:20:31 ◼   ► Sleeping in a tent.

00:20:32 ◼   ► I'm kinda hoping I go from here till a long, happy life

00:20:37 ◼   ► and eventual death with never having slept in a tent again.

00:20:41 ◼   ► - Okay.

00:20:45 ◼   ► - So I don't know about Burning Man for me.

00:20:47 ◼   ► Vegas to me is like Burning Man with a nice room.

00:20:51 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:20:54 ◼   ► Just any of those pictures,

00:20:57 ◼   ► there can be thousands of people in the field of view.

00:21:00 ◼   ► It seems just unbelievable.

00:21:02 ◼   ► And of course a lot of them are there to do actual work.

00:21:08 ◼   ► Like there have been some pretty good serious stories

00:21:11 ◼   ► about people who are there for actual job functions.

00:21:15 ◼   ► And one of the things that seemed ridiculous to me

00:21:18 ◼   ► at first about this year was like,

00:21:20 ◼   ► "Oh, Marissa Mayer's giving the keynote.

00:21:22 ◼   ► "What the hell?"

00:21:23 ◼   ► But then I read an article about how,

00:21:27 ◼   ► as digital media has become so much a part

00:21:31 ◼   ► of the consumer electronics industry,

00:21:33 ◼   ► huge ad deals are happening out there.

00:21:36 ◼   ► And so you see, oh, there's some very strange vines of,

00:21:40 ◼   ► who's that guy, David Blaine doing magic tricks

00:21:45 ◼   ► in front of Dick Costolo from Twitter.

00:21:47 ◼   ► It's just, did you see that?

00:21:49 ◼   ► It was crazy.

00:21:51 ◼   ► And yeah, and I'm sure Marissa Mayer and David Pogue

00:21:54 ◼   ► went from the keynote straight into a meeting

00:21:56 ◼   ► with Samsung or something and said,

00:21:59 ◼   ► "Hey, write us a billion dollar check."

00:22:01 ◼   ► So people are doing work out there too,

00:22:06 ◼   ► but also just insanity too.

00:22:11 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:22:12 ◼   ► It does seem like a lot of the consensus reporting

00:22:16 ◼   ► I've seen from CES this year is that the craziness

00:22:18 ◼   ► was dialed down a lot.

00:22:20 ◼   ► not in terms of like the size and scope of the thing but the just like the the

00:22:30 ◼   ► stupid crazy I don't even understand what's going on here sort of yeah no

00:22:36 ◼   ► vaguely racist right acrobatic stuff or the whole and I saw a couple people

00:22:42 ◼   ► mentioned that booth babes seem to be on the decline hmm maybe well they probably

00:22:47 ◼   ► I listened to our show from last year and got some sense about it.

00:22:52 ◼   ► One of the things I was thinking about is, wouldn't it be funny if this was the year

00:22:56 ◼   ► that Apple actually had a giant booth and just didn't tell anyone?

00:23:04 ◼   ► We kept the Beyonce album a secret.

00:23:06 ◼   ► Let's have a huge CES booth this year, too.

00:23:10 ◼   ► I just remember every year someone would report some rumor like, "Oh, Apple to give CES

00:23:17 ◼   ► keynote and of course not you know well and it was rampant after they pulled out

00:23:21 ◼   ► of Mac world right I mean it wasn't even just for the next year although that was

00:23:27 ◼   ► one year and where it was at a fever pitch but even the next year there was a

00:23:31 ◼   ► lot of rumor reporting that Apple was going to do a keynote and big exhibited

00:23:36 ◼   ► CES and it's like no you know yeah no way they were gonna do that the guy

00:23:42 ◼   ► from Nvidia has to outbid them.

00:23:45 ◼   ► - Right.

00:23:45 ◼   ► I did think one of the big stories,

00:23:50 ◼   ► and I don't know, maybe the sample size is too small

00:23:54 ◼   ► to really draw a conclusion.

00:23:57 ◼   ► But Apple, of course, wasn't there officially,

00:24:00 ◼   ► which is not to say that it weren't Apple employees there.

00:24:04 ◼   ► There were, there always are,

00:24:05 ◼   ► to talk to component makers and stuff like that.

00:24:10 ◼   ► I saw one mentioned in an article, Apple retail buyers, you know, looking at, at stuff to

00:24:17 ◼   ► sell in the stores.

00:24:19 ◼   ► Yeah, exactly.

00:24:21 ◼   ► And I'm sure that there are engineers there to just, you know, to see because it's the

00:24:25 ◼   ► one thing that something like CES does is it gets the entire industry all together.

00:24:30 ◼   ► And you can see stuff in person.

00:24:31 ◼   ► And it's, you know, you know, there's, there's reasons to be in person, you know, the behind

00:24:37 ◼   ► the scene stuff is as important as the show floor maybe more important but also

00:24:43 ◼   ► Microsoft was not there even though they you know for years that was CES was sort

00:24:48 ◼   ► of their Mac World Expo that was you know they were the keynote address the

00:24:52 ◼   ► kickoff keynote for I don't know 10-15 years in a row dating all the way back

00:24:56 ◼   ► to the Bill Gates era and then all the way through most of the Steve Ballmer

00:25:00 ◼   ► era but they you know not only have dropped out of the keynote they had no

00:25:03 ◼   ► show floor presence at all. Nor did Google. And just to throw in one more, nor did Amazon. Now

00:25:12 ◼   ► Amazon never has either. But they do make consumer electronics, the Kindle line is, I think it's

00:25:20 ◼   ► impossible to dismiss. I mean, it's, you know, the market share stuff I've seen after Christmas for

00:25:26 ◼   ► tablet usage clearly puts the Kindles in second a very strong second place in the

00:25:33 ◼   ► US but they you know we're not there either and the thing that struck me

00:25:38 ◼   ► about all four of those companies is that they're US companies and I think

00:25:41 ◼   ► that you know unless I'm overlooking somebody I mean tell me if I am there

00:25:45 ◼   ► are the four big US consumer electronic companies Apple, Google, Microsoft and

00:25:55 ◼   ► Amazon and none of them were at CES.

00:25:58 ◼   ► It seems like it's almost, you know,

00:26:01 ◼   ► like the big exhibits are all from the Asian companies.

00:26:06 ◼   ► - Right, Sony and Samsung.

00:26:09 ◼   ► - Right.

00:26:10 ◼   ► - Companies like LG.

00:26:11 ◼   ► - Right.

00:26:12 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's interesting.

00:26:14 ◼   ► - And I don't know if there's--

00:26:15 ◼   ► - I wonder why that is.

00:26:17 ◼   ► - Yeah, and I don't know if it's, like I said,

00:26:19 ◼   ► there's only four of them and they're all uniquely

00:26:23 ◼   ► their own company, right?

00:26:26 ◼   ► I mean, Apple's not there just because

00:26:28 ◼   ► Apple's an American company.

00:26:29 ◼   ► I mean, Apple is just Apple and they wanna be left alone

00:26:32 ◼   ► until they have their things to announce.

00:26:35 ◼   ► - Amazon's kinda like that too.

00:26:37 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:26:38 ◼   ► - Almost even more secretive than Apple in many ways.

00:26:41 ◼   ► - Yeah, definitely.

00:26:43 ◼   ► Google though, I think it's a little,

00:26:46 ◼   ► it seems like something they might do,

00:26:48 ◼   ► have a big haul and either just to promote

00:26:52 ◼   ► like Nexus line of stuff or you know or even have like a Kumbaya you know look at all you

00:26:59 ◼   ► know have every Amazon you know major Android phone on display at once and just you know.

00:27:04 ◼   ► Which they did for at least both years that I was at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona

00:27:11 ◼   ► they had it the biggest most popular booth with you know smoothie people making smoothies

00:27:16 ◼   ► and gigantic Android phones and they brought out a bunch of Android developers and gave

00:27:22 ◼   ► them little booths and that kind of stuff. Right and maybe they'll do that

00:27:25 ◼   ► again at Mobile World Congress this year right because that's... I don't know

00:27:30 ◼   ► if they did it last year. I wasn't there last year. But you know in theory I think

00:27:35 ◼   ► of all those companies the two that would be least surprising if they did

00:27:40 ◼   ► have a big CES presence would be Microsoft and Google. Well especially

00:27:43 ◼   ► Microsoft the new Xbox just came out. Right and Sony was gonna be there. They're

00:27:48 ◼   ► Buying Nokia, right?

00:27:50 ◼   ► Right.

00:27:50 ◼   ► And maybe just the fact that they are in the process of trying to buy Nokia

00:27:55 ◼   ► and the whole CEO turnover thing kept them out.

00:27:59 ◼   ► But that seems weird.

00:28:02 ◼   ► And I also think that they really want Windows 8 on tablets to gain traction.

00:28:11 ◼   ► I think they will do anything they could.

00:28:13 ◼   ► I think I think you know, I don't know is it more important than the phone?

00:28:19 ◼   ► I don't know but both are clearly important. I mean, I think everybody agrees that that the root cause of Microsoft's

00:28:26 ◼   ► Decline in recent years is that they have no traction in either the phone or tablet markets

00:28:34 ◼   ► And you know, I almost hesitate to say that one's more important than the other because I think that they sort of go hand-in-hand

00:28:43 ◼   ► And even if Office and not Window is the path forward,

00:28:48 ◼   ► or even the cloud services or whatever,

00:28:52 ◼   ► that still needs, that's more important for the tablets,

00:28:56 ◼   ► 'cause Office is not gonna do awesome on Android

00:29:00 ◼   ► or something like that.

00:29:01 ◼   ► - Right.

00:29:01 ◼   ► You know what, I'm gonna take it back,

00:29:02 ◼   ► and I'm gonna say tablets are more important

00:29:04 ◼   ► to Microsoft than phones, because, for two reasons.

00:29:09 ◼   ► for one, their phones are already a two horse race with iOS and Android where iOS has a

00:29:18 ◼   ► stronger position at the top end of the market and Android has a stronger position as the

00:29:24 ◼   ► majority market share leader, right? And has the OEM market sewn up. Whereas tablets, I

00:29:33 ◼   ► I feel like, alright, iPad is clearly in first place,

00:29:37 ◼   ► way stronger in first place than you could argue

00:29:41 ◼   ► anybody has in anything other than Windows

00:29:43 ◼   ► and PC market share.

00:29:45 ◼   ► And second place is up for grabs.

00:29:49 ◼   ► And I think inevitably there should be

00:29:53 ◼   ► some kind of strong second place.

00:29:55 ◼   ► Even if it's really just ends up being the Mac,

00:30:01 ◼   ► what the Mac was to Windows at the height of the PC era,

00:30:05 ◼   ► somebody's gonna have an alternative to the iPad.

00:30:07 ◼   ► And, you know, at least, I feel like Microsoft

00:30:11 ◼   ► has a better chance of making Windows and Windows tablets

00:30:14 ◼   ► be that than they do of putting a serious dent

00:30:17 ◼   ► into either iOS or Android on phones.

00:30:20 ◼   ► So I don't know.

00:30:21 ◼   ► And I also think it's a little bit more what, you know,

00:30:24 ◼   ► shoring up what they're already good at.

00:30:26 ◼   ► Like I feel like tablet sales are coming at the expense

00:30:29 ◼   ► mainly of Windows laptop sales.

00:30:33 ◼   ► - Yeah, so that adds extra urgency.

00:30:36 ◼   ► And Microsoft kind of started the whole tablets at CES thing.

00:30:40 ◼   ► I mean, if you remember, what was it,

00:30:42 ◼   ► two weeks or something before Apple,

00:30:45 ◼   ► you know, unveiled the iPhone, iPad,

00:30:50 ◼   ► Ballmer had that weird HP Slate thing at CES.

00:30:53 ◼   ► - Right, we call them Slates, right?

00:30:55 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:30:55 ◼   ► I kind of missed the Ballmer keynote at CES.

00:30:59 ◼   ► That was like something to look forward to.

00:31:02 ◼   ► - I, you know, and I'll say it,

00:31:04 ◼   ► I regret that I never went during that era to see one.

00:31:06 ◼   ► - Yeah, that's like the bulls with Jordan, you know?

00:31:10 ◼   ► Now it's too late. - It's too late.

00:31:12 ◼   ► All right, let me take a break

00:31:12 ◼   ► and we'll get back to that CES talk.

00:31:16 ◼   ► But first, let me take a break

00:31:17 ◼   ► and tell you about our first sponsor.

00:31:19 ◼   ► So happy to have him back on the show.

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00:32:17 ◼   ► Over and over a week after week after week until I get sick of it or until the stores out of it

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00:33:39 ◼   ► the subscription because it's so good go to talks my thanks to them for

00:33:43 ◼   ► sponsoring the show again. See the other thing Tonks did, Dan? What's that? They

00:33:48 ◼   ► have a new promotion where you can go to their website, I forget the URL, but if

00:33:51 ◼   ► you go to Tonks.org and look for it, I'm sure you'll find it, but they have a... you

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00:34:42 ◼   ► It's genius. Absolutely genius. I love it. So they did a thing where they send it

00:34:47 ◼   ► out I guess because they've sponsored my show before they sent me a Christmas

00:34:51 ◼   ► card a holiday card that included a Starbucks a gift card and there was no

00:34:57 ◼   ► explanation I thought it was just sort of a gag I tweeted it and I said it was

00:35:00 ◼   ► like the best gag gift I got but now knowing that they have this promotion I

00:35:04 ◼   ► realize it wasn't really a gag it was sort of a setup for this but anyway

00:35:08 ◼   ► talks is so great I'm drinking it literally right now yeah I think

00:35:15 ◼   ► Microsoft should add a big booth yeah I think for tablets honestly I think for

00:35:21 ◼   ► phones because honestly I mean Nokia to me it they're making to me the second

00:35:28 ◼   ► best I don't know about the software but they're making to me the second most

00:35:31 ◼   ► interesting phone hardware today but they're still flailing they're not

00:35:38 ◼   ► really gaining traction I don't know that they're sinking but they're not

00:35:41 ◼   ► going to you know and if it's worth Microsoft's money to buy Nokia or at

00:35:45 ◼   ► least their handset division I don't know it just seems to me like they ought

00:35:49 ◼   ► to start ought to keep pumping them into the consciousness you know keep the per

00:35:54 ◼   ► keep them visible I don't know trade shows are obviously very expensive

00:35:59 ◼   ► expensive, especially I don't even I can't even imagine what it costs to have one of

00:36:04 ◼   ► those flagship exhibits at like a CES or a big show like that. It means it's I'm sure

00:36:10 ◼   ► it's millions of dollars. Yeah, it's got to be, you know, maybe 10 million or something.

00:36:14 ◼   ► I don't know. Right. But you're talking about a company that's spending billions right with

00:36:19 ◼   ► a B to buy Nokia, right? And you know, just in general, I mean, I'm on marketing and all

00:36:24 ◼   ► that stuff and the cost of losing the windows, you know, everything they have is everything.

00:36:32 ◼   ► It's hundreds of billions of dollars.

00:36:38 ◼   ► I just can't help but think maybe the CEO turnover is why they didn't do it just to

00:36:43 ◼   ► keep the distractions away.

00:36:47 ◼   ► But I don't know.

00:36:48 ◼   ► It's maybe a sign of paralysis.

00:36:51 ◼   ► with the new Xbox out and trying to build a developer ecosystem around that and be part

00:36:57 ◼   ► of all the 4K TVs that are out.

00:37:01 ◼   ► How cool would it have been to be able to play a couple Xbox games on one of those things?

00:37:07 ◼   ► There was one article I think also on the verge about how there's basically no 4K content

00:37:13 ◼   ► to show off except Netflix had some so they were being demoed on all the new TVs which

00:37:19 ◼   ► is smart.

00:37:20 ◼   ► Yeah, Netflix with a big presence without having a big or maybe even any exhibit space themselves.

00:37:27 ◼   ► Reed Hastings was just he just was at every single event for anybody related to TV.

00:37:36 ◼   ► And it seems like like I would have to say if not the single biggest one of the big you know count

00:37:45 ◼   ► them on one hand themes of this year's CES was 4k TV sets definitely and like you said the big

00:37:52 ◼   ► question is well what do you well I've actually I think there's two big questions for 4k TV sets

00:37:58 ◼   ► one though first one is where are you going to get 4k content because there's zero point to it

00:38:02 ◼   ► without 4k content and so far the answer like you said is Netflix but even there they can't just

00:38:10 ◼   ► magically make stuff that wasn't shot 4k be 4k but I know that they're going to

00:38:17 ◼   ► you know the one thing they can control are their own shows and they have in a

00:38:20 ◼   ► house of cards which they're going to have available in 4k yeah we guess the

00:38:26 ◼   ► new season which starts next month yeah a couple few weeks from now yeah I mean

00:38:33 ◼   ► that's and that's one of the beauties of vertical integration have have control

00:38:39 ◼   ► - I'm gonna roll over that sort of stuff.

00:38:41 ◼   ► 4K is interesting to me.

00:38:43 ◼   ► I'm kind of impressed by how inexpensive

00:38:47 ◼   ► some of the supposed prices are gonna be for those things.

00:38:51 ◼   ► I'm very frightened as to how much worse

00:38:53 ◼   ► the wire is gonna look than it already does now.

00:38:57 ◼   ► I think I'll have to rewatch it once more

00:39:00 ◼   ► before I upgrade TVs or something like that.

00:39:03 ◼   ► - I guess it depends what it was shot on.

00:39:06 ◼   ► Maybe the wire is sold.

00:39:07 ◼   ► I would--

00:39:09 ◼   ► - The wire was shot in, I looked it up this morning,

00:39:11 ◼   ► it was shot in SD four by three.

00:39:14 ◼   ► There will never be an HD remastering.

00:39:19 ◼   ► - Wow, but didn't they shoot on film?

00:39:22 ◼   ► Couldn't they--

00:39:23 ◼   ► - This I don't know.

00:39:24 ◼   ► Whatever article I read.

00:39:27 ◼   ► - That there's no chance to get that,

00:39:29 ◼   ► to go back and turn that back into HD.

00:39:32 ◼   ► - I don't think so.

00:39:34 ◼   ► 'Cause a lot of the shows during that period,

00:39:38 ◼   ► like the first few seasons were four by three

00:39:41 ◼   ► and then something like Entourage or something like that.

00:39:44 ◼   ► I think even The Sopranos,

00:39:45 ◼   ► like the last several seasons were in HD.

00:39:48 ◼   ► And there was a shift kind of halfway through.

00:39:52 ◼   ► But the Wire, everything was always SD.

00:39:56 ◼   ► - Four three. - Four three.

00:39:58 ◼   ► Major disappointment.

00:40:01 ◼   ► - Yeah, and it was sort of right at the tail end of that.

00:40:04 ◼   ► Whereas if you go back a little further,

00:40:06 ◼   ► and you know, like one of my favorite shows from the 90s

00:40:09 ◼   ► was NYPD Blue.

00:40:10 ◼   ► - Oh yeah.

00:40:12 ◼   ► - Great show, especially the first few seasons.

00:40:14 ◼   ► But it doesn't break your heart

00:40:18 ◼   ► that it's four to three standard definition.

00:40:22 ◼   ► 'Cause it was the 90s, what do you expect?

00:40:23 ◼   ► Whereas The Wire, it just feels like,

00:40:26 ◼   ► was just a wee bit, a few years too early.

00:40:29 ◼   ► Here's the thing.

00:40:33 ◼   ► that the bigger problem facing 4k is how many people sit have a couch far enough

00:40:39 ◼   ► away from their TV and have room for a big enough TV where 4k actually looks

00:40:44 ◼   ► better right and you get into these arguments you know like the apples

00:40:48 ◼   ► definitions of a retina display of you know it's distance from the screen you

00:40:54 ◼   ► know and some math about the pixel size but there is a certain point where you

00:40:59 ◼   ► can't discern it right and when you went from an old four three standard def

00:41:05 ◼   ► glass picture tube TV to a flat screen you know plasma or LCD high def screen

00:41:13 ◼   ► it you know you unless you had some kind of vision impairment or didn't have your

00:41:17 ◼   ► glasses on it everybody had the same reaction which is wow this looks way

00:41:23 ◼   ► better I don't know that when I first got a HD I don't know if I've talked

00:41:27 ◼   ► about in this show but I even would watch skiing because it looked so good.

00:41:31 ◼   ► Right. It's like this is crazy. Yeah I remember stuff like golf and tennis

00:41:37 ◼   ► with these little tiny balls and it's like all of a sudden. Hockey. Yeah hockey was a big

00:41:41 ◼   ► one. Hockey I think, god hockey was like unwatchable on standard def. I never

00:41:45 ◼   ► understood how people could watch hockey. You couldn't see. Well unless you had Fox

00:41:48 ◼   ► tracks glowing. Right which was awful. I don't know that 4k for most people is

00:41:57 ◼   ► going to look better and I don't you know I think that's the problem the TV

00:42:01 ◼   ► industry TV set industry has is everybody spent a lot of money to upgrade

00:42:05 ◼   ► and go to high def flat panel displays and an awful lot of money was spent in

00:42:12 ◼   ► what the last 15 years 10 15 years I got mine nine years ago yeah I think we

00:42:20 ◼   ► bought ours around the same time I don't know well no not that long I think I got

00:42:24 ◼   ► I got mine in like 2006.

00:42:26 ◼   ► You know, and--

00:42:28 ◼   ► - Yeah, that was right as they were getting cheaper.

00:42:30 ◼   ► - A lot of people spent a lot of money,

00:42:32 ◼   ► and I still love my 2006 TV.

00:42:35 ◼   ► I mean, I really think it looks great.

00:42:39 ◼   ► - Yes, yeah, I think it's gonna be one of those things

00:42:43 ◼   ► where it will just gradually replace the HD components,

00:42:47 ◼   ► and if you are buying a mid-range or high-end TV,

00:42:52 ◼   ► it will be 4K.

00:42:53 ◼   ► If you're not, it'll probably be 1080p.

00:42:56 ◼   ► The way today, you still buy a 1080i or 720p TV

00:43:01 ◼   ► if you wanna spend 300 bucks,

00:43:03 ◼   ► and if you wanna spend 700, 800 bucks, you get 1080p.

00:43:06 ◼   ► - I just don't know that it's going to really help

00:43:10 ◼   ► the industry spur sales.

00:43:13 ◼   ► I am glad, though.

00:43:14 ◼   ► I feel like the good-- - I don't think it will.

00:43:16 ◼   ► - The good news to me, as someone who really despises 3D,

00:43:20 ◼   ► is that the whole 3D thing,

00:43:22 ◼   ► which is like what the last two years,

00:43:23 ◼   ► they were pushing 3D TV sets.

00:43:26 ◼   ► And I just, oh man, if I could have just paid a genie

00:43:31 ◼   ► to give me a wish and hope that a technology fails,

00:43:34 ◼   ► it would be 3D TVs.

00:43:36 ◼   ► 'Cause I can't even imagine the world where

00:43:39 ◼   ► movies are all 3D.

00:43:42 ◼   ► Whether you need glasses or not,

00:43:44 ◼   ► 3D really gets to me every time I see it.

00:43:46 ◼   ► - Aren't you kind of happy though

00:43:47 ◼   ► that the good guys won on that one?

00:43:49 ◼   ► - Yeah, I am glad.

00:43:50 ◼   ► - You could see a technology lose

00:43:52 ◼   ► over the course of a few years and feel good about that.

00:43:56 ◼   ► - Yeah, I feel like common sense prevailed.

00:43:58 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:43:59 ◼   ► - Like no, we don't want it.

00:44:00 ◼   ► We certainly don't want to wear frickin' goggles

00:44:02 ◼   ► and stuff like that.

00:44:03 ◼   ► And I don't, you know, I think it was not because 3D

00:44:06 ◼   ► was a good idea, it was because the TV manufacturers

00:44:09 ◼   ► wanted to sell new TVs to people who already bought

00:44:11 ◼   ► flat panel TVs, and so it didn't work.

00:44:14 ◼   ► - Or wanted to upsell the 3D TVs as being

00:44:19 ◼   ► a significantly more expensive product

00:44:22 ◼   ► than the flat panel.

00:44:23 ◼   ► - Right, as opposed to 4K, which I can in theory get behind

00:44:27 ◼   ► because more pixels to me is always better.

00:44:29 ◼   ► And so it's definitely, you know,

00:44:31 ◼   ► I'm not, again, I'm not 100% sold it's gonna take off

00:44:34 ◼   ► because I don't know that people are gonna be able

00:44:35 ◼   ► to discern the difference unless they can get

00:44:38 ◼   ► a big enough, you know, 60, 70 inch screen.

00:44:41 ◼   ► - Yeah, I don't know about your household,

00:44:43 ◼   ► but I still come home sometimes and see that the SD version

00:44:47 ◼   ► of a channel is being watched.

00:44:49 ◼   ► - Right.

00:44:50 ◼   ► No one could tell the difference.

00:44:54 ◼   ► I tweeted about it over the Christmas break, but my wife had a day where she'd be like,

00:44:58 ◼   ► "Jonas was playing Minecraft and I was up 'working' in the office and she just had a

00:45:03 ◼   ► relaxing day watching movies."

00:45:05 ◼   ► It was three or four of her favorite movies that nobody else likes came on, like Houseguest.

00:45:14 ◼   ► She loves Houseguest.

00:45:15 ◼   ► Any time Houseguest comes on, she watches.

00:45:17 ◼   ► It's a terrible movie.

00:45:19 ◼   ► God bless Phil Hartman.

00:45:20 ◼   ► I wish we still had him but I mean, you know

00:45:22 ◼   ► Yeah, that that movie is rough

00:45:25 ◼   ► But and I'd you know, I'd come down and get coffee and stuff and every everything she was watching all day long was standard deaf

00:45:32 ◼   ► It had drove me nuts

00:45:34 ◼   ► Maybe something like that is is better. I don't know I would pay more money and this is stupid because it doesn't make any sense

00:45:41 ◼   ► I would pay more money to Comcast to just take all the standard channels out of our lineup

00:45:47 ◼   ► Just get them off so that there's nothing we can't watch standard stuff

00:45:51 ◼   ► I think if you dig deep enough in the settings on your cable box, you can override the SD

00:45:58 ◼   ► Somehow, I don't know. I'm not sure I haven't tried that yet

00:46:02 ◼   ► Well, another thing I'm wondering about is is the bandwidth stuff. I mean if if 4k video is

00:46:09 ◼   ► You know two to four times more

00:46:13 ◼   ► bandwidth a

00:46:15 ◼   ► You know, is it gonna stream?

00:46:17 ◼   ► Chapelle II is it is it gonna be watchable and B at what point does Time Warner Cable or

00:46:23 ◼   ► Comcast or whoever say okay. Well you hit your 200 gigs limit now now you're done, right?

00:46:30 ◼   ► We're gonna start charging you for it or something like that, right?

00:46:33 ◼   ► Because they're not really all that much in favor of you watching TV over IP

00:46:37 ◼   ► Exactly by which I mean not in favor at all

00:46:40 ◼   ► right

00:46:43 ◼   ► Yeah, that's a good question. Wireless is not going to fix that. No, definitely not.

00:46:48 ◼   ► Especially now with... I saw a couple of reports this week that it, with

00:46:54 ◼   ► compression, and I don't know if they're using H.265 or what the Kodak is,

00:47:01 ◼   ► but that they've, I think like in a lot of the Netflix stuff, because Netflix

00:47:06 ◼   ► actually is putting the rubber to the road and doing it, that it's about 15

00:47:11 ◼   ► 15 megabits a second? Something like that is what it requires. Now I only, I

00:47:16 ◼   ► mean like when I run speed tests when I'm in when my stuff's working well I

00:47:20 ◼   ► only get about 20, 21, 22 down. Yeah same. So and I still can't load YouTube videos

00:47:27 ◼   ► half the time. Yeah 15 is under that but it it's so much so close to it though

00:47:32 ◼   ► that it it almost requires optimal you know optimal you know good weather and

00:47:38 ◼   ► just a perfect, you know, hope that my neighbors

00:47:40 ◼   ► aren't doing it too.

00:47:42 ◼   ► - Yeah, which is why Netflix actually is,

00:47:45 ◼   ► at least publicly, one of the fiercest companies

00:47:50 ◼   ► in terms of publicly praising and rating

00:47:54 ◼   ► and ranking ISPs in terms of their quality,

00:47:58 ◼   ► which I find kind of interesting,

00:47:59 ◼   ► and lobbying for things like net neutrality

00:48:03 ◼   ► and that sort of stuff.

00:48:05 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:48:06 ◼   ► Let me take a break here and do the second sponsor.

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00:50:31 ◼   ► here so my thanks to them where were we what were we talking about as 4k

00:50:41 ◼   ► bandwidth 4k bandwidth yeah and so apples you know obviously we said not at

00:50:47 ◼   ► the show, much, much rumored to be possibly working

00:50:52 ◼   ► on some kind of new TV thing, whether it is a full TV set

00:50:56 ◼   ► or a big step forward in Apple TV.

00:50:59 ◼   ► I wonder how 4K, what their stance on that is.

00:51:06 ◼   ► I know there's a lot of people who think,

00:51:07 ◼   ► well that's what, people who, the Gene Munsters of the world

00:51:10 ◼   ► who think that, you know.

00:51:13 ◼   ► - Right, that's what Apple's been waiting for.

00:51:15 ◼   ► - Right, been waiting for 4K.

00:51:17 ◼   ► I don't know about that.

00:51:18 ◼   ► I don't know about that at all.

00:51:20 ◼   ► - Yeah, I would say no.

00:51:23 ◼   ► I mean, I guess, you know, personally,

00:51:27 ◼   ► I have kind of been waiting to upgrade my TV

00:51:30 ◼   ► in case Apple were to have come out with one by now.

00:51:34 ◼   ► You know, when it breaks,

00:51:36 ◼   ► I'm gonna replace it with whatever's out there.

00:51:38 ◼   ► But I could see a lot of people buying an Apple TV

00:51:43 ◼   ► because it came out.

00:51:46 ◼   ► and therefore, if it were 4K,

00:51:48 ◼   ► that's how they would justify getting a 4K TV.

00:51:52 ◼   ► But I think that that's not what's been holding them back.

00:51:55 ◼   ► - No, and I also wonder,

00:51:57 ◼   ► because Apple controls a lot of the content

00:51:59 ◼   ► that comes to Apple TV,

00:52:00 ◼   ► because they have, they sell and rent movies and TV shows.

00:52:04 ◼   ► But I honestly wonder how much control they have

00:52:09 ◼   ► over getting that stuff in 4K format.

00:52:13 ◼   ► I don't think it's any.

00:52:15 ◼   ► It's not like they've got the original negatives

00:52:18 ◼   ► for the films and can scan them at 4K resolution.

00:52:21 ◼   ► You know, it's up to the studios to provide, you know, the,

00:52:25 ◼   ► you know, I don't know that just because, you know,

00:52:30 ◼   ► so much of Apple TV content comes from iTunes.

00:52:33 ◼   ► I don't know that that gives Apple much control

00:52:36 ◼   ► over getting the iTunes library into 4K.

00:52:40 ◼   ► I don't know though, maybe I'm wrong.

00:52:41 ◼   ► - Yeah, and how did it work with HD?

00:52:43 ◼   ► Didn't it start with movies or TV shows?

00:52:47 ◼   ► I don't remember.

00:52:48 ◼   ► - I don't know that the, you know, it was,

00:52:50 ◼   ► but it wasn't all at once.

00:52:51 ◼   ► They couldn't just flip a switch.

00:52:52 ◼   ► - No, it was like one by one, too.

00:52:54 ◼   ► Yeah, well, obviously they don't make the content,

00:52:58 ◼   ► so they can't just go out on their own and do it.

00:53:01 ◼   ► And it seems like another opportunity for the studios

00:53:05 ◼   ► to try to get something out of Apple

00:53:07 ◼   ► before they hand over even higher res stuff.

00:53:12 ◼   ► especially with that whole ultraviolet thing they have on their own.

00:53:17 ◼   ► So yeah, and Apple, you know, big picture is often, they'll often make great leaps forward

00:53:25 ◼   ► with things like being like the retina display on the iPhone 4 in 2010 was a huge leap forward

00:53:34 ◼   ► in resolution over every other phone on the market. You know, literally double the the resolution,

00:53:40 ◼   ► you know in one dimension as the previous generation of iPhones and you

00:53:45 ◼   ► know 300 and some DPI instead of a hundred and some DPI but then ever since

00:53:51 ◼   ► they've let it go and now it went from you know and now there's other competing

00:53:56 ◼   ► phones you know from on the Android side that have four hundred and some pixels

00:54:00 ◼   ► per inch and I feel like with you know with Apple it's like they'll make a big

00:54:07 ◼   ► leap forward if they think there's a practical reason for it right and the

00:54:10 ◼   ► original iPhone going retina was so clearly oh man this looks so much better especially you know

00:54:16 ◼   ► everything looked better whereas I feel like going from 300 and some to 400 some DPI on a phone is

00:54:24 ◼   ► you're just wasting battery you know that it's not worth you with a horrible Android UI right yeah

00:54:31 ◼   ► it's like you know see those wonderful Roboto files rendered in all their glory like and I

00:54:39 ◼   ► almost think that from an Apple perspective that 1080p is that sweet spot

00:54:45 ◼   ► of looks really good in most typical household viewing scenarios you know in

00:54:56 ◼   ► terms of screen size versus distance from screen well this was actually I

00:55:04 ◼   ► still think it from this precedent for this - I actually wrote a story about

00:55:09 ◼   ► about this for Forbes in 2006 or 2007 when at when iTunes first started selling movies

00:55:19 ◼   ► and Amazon first started selling movies.

00:55:21 ◼   ► They were both around the same time and what Amazon did is sold you a made you download

00:55:31 ◼   ► I want to say two copies of the movie.

00:55:35 ◼   ► One of them was a really big file and looked good on your computer and the other one was

00:55:42 ◼   ► a really small file.

00:55:43 ◼   ► Maybe it was Apple that did that.

00:55:45 ◼   ► Yeah, I think Apple did that.

00:55:46 ◼   ► I think that was Apple.

00:55:47 ◼   ► I seem to remember that.

00:55:49 ◼   ► Maybe Amazon had – I don't remember.

00:55:52 ◼   ► Anyway, all right.

00:55:53 ◼   ► Well, I'll define the article.

00:55:55 ◼   ► I think it was Apple.

00:55:58 ◼   ► Apple did do that too.

00:56:02 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:56:04 ◼   ► Anyway.

00:56:05 ◼   ► But it didn't make sense to have a big 720p or 1080p file to show on your standard def

00:56:13 ◼   ► screen.

00:56:14 ◼   ► It made no sense.

00:56:16 ◼   ► All right.

00:56:17 ◼   ► Here's the article.

00:56:18 ◼   ► Basically, Apple's total file size was smaller than Amazon's.

00:56:23 ◼   ► And the question I was writing about was whether – yeah, Amazon had two files, a large version

00:56:31 ◼   ► for your computer and TV and a smaller one for your like Rio MP3 player or something

00:56:36 ◼   ► like that.

00:56:39 ◼   ► For watching movies on your Galaxy Gear.

00:56:42 ◼   ► Yes, yeah exactly.

00:56:45 ◼   ► Yeah Amazon was doing 720 pixel with an Apple said DVD quality 640 pixels.

00:56:54 ◼   ► Anyway big picture, this is Apple saying we're okay not having the highest resolution possible

00:57:01 ◼   ► because there are better trade-offs,

00:57:03 ◼   ► like download speed that make this better.

00:57:06 ◼   ► So I can see the same thing happening here,

00:57:09 ◼   ► where they don't go with the most pixels possible on a TV,

00:57:14 ◼   ► but instead one that will kind of hit the sweet spot

00:57:19 ◼   ► in terms of bandwidth and content library

00:57:23 ◼   ► and all that sort of stuff.

00:57:24 ◼   ► I mean, how lame would it be if Apple shipped a 4K TV

00:57:28 ◼   ► and literally nothing was available in 4K,

00:57:31 ◼   ► like they wouldn't even do that.

00:57:34 ◼   ► Everything you have looks like shit on our new TV.

00:57:36 ◼   ► - Well, it would look like 1080p.

00:57:38 ◼   ► I don't think 1080p is gonna look worse on a 4K TV set.

00:57:41 ◼   ► - You don't think so?

00:57:42 ◼   ► - No, I don't think so.

00:57:43 ◼   ► I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

00:57:45 ◼   ► - Yeah, well, the way that non-retina apps

00:57:48 ◼   ► look terrible on a retina screen,

00:57:51 ◼   ► but maybe the difference is imperceptible

00:57:54 ◼   ► from six feet away or whatever.

00:57:56 ◼   ► right because if it's because I think it's more like with like the retina

00:58:02 ◼   ► MacBook Pros where you have those scaled sizes to simulate higher resolutions and

00:58:07 ◼   ► they still look fine yeah because you're still only you're talking about pixels

00:58:12 ◼   ► that are so small even at the simulated size right the simulated pixel is bigger

00:58:18 ◼   ► than the native pixel of the display but that simulated size is still so small

00:58:23 ◼   ► that you're it looks good your eyes whereas when you upscale a non retina

00:58:30 ◼   ► iPhone app on retina those non retina virtual pixels are big and you can see

00:58:39 ◼   ► them so I am nearly certain I mean and I'm sure otherwise from people out there

00:58:43 ◼   ► but I would bet that 1080p content looks like 1080p content on a 4k display yeah

00:58:49 ◼   ► Yeah, and things like...

00:58:51 ◼   ► No worse than it would on an equivalent size 1080p thing, unless you get real close, which

00:58:58 ◼   ► is, you know...

00:58:59 ◼   ► Right, which is not what happens for a TV.

00:59:02 ◼   ► For a monitor, that's a different story.

00:59:04 ◼   ► But what's the point of powering all those pixels and paying for all those pixels to

00:59:09 ◼   ► watch 1080p when you could have just spent less money on a 1080p native TV set?

00:59:15 ◼   ► Exactly.

00:59:16 ◼   ► Now there are things like if they have a gaming app store

00:59:21 ◼   ► with vector-based gaming artwork,

00:59:24 ◼   ► maybe that does look appreciably different on a 4K TV.

00:59:27 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:59:28 ◼   ► Well, I guess we'll have to go to CES next year.

00:59:32 ◼   ► - Yeah, I just don't think 4K is the factor.

00:59:35 ◼   ► - No, I don't think so.

00:59:37 ◼   ► You know, my thinking on this

00:59:39 ◼   ► and just from not having any real information

00:59:43 ◼   ► but just kind of reading stuff over the years

00:59:45 ◼   ► that Apple really wanted to have some sort of subscription service that was just dramatically

00:59:53 ◼   ► better and more interesting than a cable TV package and couldn't get the rights for that

01:00:00 ◼   ► and therefore kind of dropped the ball on a lot of other stuff.

01:00:04 ◼   ► I don't know if that's true or not, but that's the perception I have.

01:00:11 ◼   ► I wonder too how much of it is still fueled by what may well just be a throwaway line

01:00:18 ◼   ► in the Steve Jobs biography by Walter Isaacson that something about TV and Jobs said, "I've

01:00:26 ◼   ► cracked it." And that's it. Yeah. Who even knows what the hell that means? I'm still

01:00:40 ◼   ► half convinced at least if not 51% convinced that the Apple TV we have today is the that's

01:00:48 ◼   ► Apple's TV plans. And that you know, they'll just come out you know, the it's getting to

01:00:53 ◼   ► the point where it's overdue for a new version, but that it's just going to be another $99

01:00:58 ◼   ► box with maybe higher resolution and a better remote. I've said this so many times and I

01:01:02 ◼   ► still think it's the most likely scenario for how they go forward, that they just keep

01:01:06 ◼   ► selling $99 set top boxes.

01:01:08 ◼   ► - Yeah, and I'm sure, as a company that makes things

01:01:12 ◼   ► with screens, I'm sure they've tested out computers

01:01:16 ◼   ► in every screen size imaginable.

01:01:19 ◼   ► They already make 30-inch displays, well, they did.

01:01:24 ◼   ► So I'm sure they've tried out making a TV set

01:01:28 ◼   ► or something like that, but making that into a product

01:01:31 ◼   ► is a whole different story.

01:01:36 ◼   ► I love my Apple TV, though.

01:01:37 ◼   ► I find myself using it much more than even I did a year ago.

01:01:44 ◼   ► I really hope they do more with it.

01:01:47 ◼   ► It's one of those things where they add maybe one channel every few weeks so you don't notice

01:01:52 ◼   ► it.

01:01:53 ◼   ► But if you remember, even a year ago, they didn't even fill up the first screen.

01:01:57 ◼   ► And now there's a lot of stuff on there.

01:01:59 ◼   ► Most of it I'm not watching.

01:02:02 ◼   ► But that's great.

01:02:03 ◼   ► - It's been a pretty good year of adding content

01:02:04 ◼   ► to Apple TV, I really do.

01:02:06 ◼   ► - Yeah, I think it suggests that maybe they're starting to,

01:02:10 ◼   ► well, I had read, I think it was HBO,

01:02:14 ◼   ► had even admitted publicly

01:02:15 ◼   ► that they made their app themselves.

01:02:18 ◼   ► So it sounds like Apple has some sort of very simple toolkit

01:02:22 ◼   ► that they're letting other people use now

01:02:24 ◼   ► to make those channels.

01:02:25 ◼   ► - Right, yeah, that to me could be the,

01:02:31 ◼   ► my best guess for what he meant by I cracked it and it's you know just you

01:02:36 ◼   ► know maybe it's some kind of next-generation thing bluetooth for

01:02:39 ◼   ► the remotes and so that maybe you could even have like gaming remotes and a real

01:02:47 ◼   ► app store SDK and let people just you know put apps on their Apple TV the same

01:02:52 ◼   ► way they do their iPhone and iPad. But that would work with any TV.

01:02:59 ◼   ► A lot easier to distribute those tiny boxes than a massive, you know, I see whenever one

01:03:09 ◼   ► of my neighbors gets a TV, I see the massive cardboard box on the sidewalk.

01:03:15 ◼   ► The one TV set at CES this year that did get a little bit of my attention, stood out from

01:03:20 ◼   ► others was LG because they announced one that runs web OS which I had forgotten

01:03:27 ◼   ► I had forgotten that they'd purchased they like purchased web OS from I guess

01:03:34 ◼   ► HP what's what's the thinking behind that is it just that it's easy to write

01:03:40 ◼   ► apps for it because it's HTML and JavaScript I guess I don't know I mean

01:03:45 ◼   ► and it's obviously the original the you know the web OS as we knew it from the

01:03:50 ◼   ► the Palm Pre phone and the what was their tablet called the Playbook was a

01:03:57 ◼   ► you know iOS style glass touchscreen interface and obviously your TV set is

01:04:04 ◼   ► not a touchscreen but it seems like they kind of kept it you know so it's not

01:04:08 ◼   ► really web OS as we knew it but it's web OS based similar to how you know at a

01:04:13 ◼   ► low level technically Apple TV the one you buy today is running iOS a version

01:04:18 ◼   ► of iOS. It's just not, it's a totally different interface.

01:04:22 ◼   ► Yeah, I actually did a research report about the various development platforms for smart

01:04:29 ◼   ► TVs and it's horrible. It's way worse than Android. Almost every model year has a different

01:04:38 ◼   ► SDK and you have to test them like crazy. It takes months or even years to make it a

01:04:46 ◼   ► a smart TV app for a lot of manufacturers.

01:04:48 ◼   ► And they all have different SDKs,

01:04:50 ◼   ► and they're all using different technology

01:04:52 ◼   ► and chipsets and all this crap,

01:04:53 ◼   ► and it's a lot of low-level stuff.

01:04:55 ◼   ► So it's just a disaster.

01:04:56 ◼   ► So if WebOS is like, hey, just make HTML and JavaScript,

01:05:01 ◼   ► and you're all set, that's a huge advantage

01:05:05 ◼   ► over whatever Visio or Samsung has been forcing people to do.

01:05:10 ◼   ► - Yeah, and that could be a big advantage for Apple,

01:05:13 ◼   ► because apple not only has tons of developers now with iOS you know because obviously I

01:05:21 ◼   ► mean I think it would be almost shocking if the SDK were anything other than you know

01:05:25 ◼   ► objective C and the cocoa APIs you know but optimized for TV but they also it's not just

01:05:34 ◼   ► that they have developers but that they have I mean let's go all the way back to 1990 and

01:05:40 ◼   ► say you know 89 and say you know you know go back to next and say they've got

01:05:47 ◼   ► 20 to 25 years of experience making a developer platform that evolves over

01:05:53 ◼   ► time so that it's not you know it is familiar that you you know for anybody

01:05:58 ◼   ► who's written an iOS app or a Mac app the presumed Apple TV SDK would be

01:06:02 ◼   ► pretty familiar and that as it evolves year over year over year it's not going

01:06:07 ◼   ► to break it year over year and that you're writing an app in 2014 and then in 2015 it's

01:06:14 ◼   ► going to be broken.

01:06:17 ◼   ► It would be stable, a stable platform that evolves over time, which I think is a big

01:06:22 ◼   ► difference compared to like what you're saying about the smart TVs on the market today.

01:06:27 ◼   ► Tom Bilyeu: Yeah.

01:06:31 ◼   ► Also a platform that has been smartly designed for the type of equipment it's going to run

01:06:37 ◼   ► on. Now, whereas even even the attempts to kind of shoehorn Android into a TV, you know,

01:06:44 ◼   ► I don't know how I don't know how well that's working.

01:06:47 ◼   ► Right. And it is the sort of thing where even if they come out with and I think, you know,

01:06:51 ◼   ► obviously, it would be the thing that would slow adoption the most is if if Apple's Apple

01:06:57 ◼   ► TV of the future is a whole TV set the whole thing at once you have to buy a new TV set,

01:07:03 ◼   ► it's all built in I think that would slow adoption because obviously the

01:07:07 ◼   ► price would be higher and it would rule out anybody who says well I just bought

01:07:11 ◼   ► a TV X number of years ago I'm not replacing it yet even for a cool one

01:07:15 ◼   ► from Apple even if Apple you know their market share was very low like two three

01:07:22 ◼   ► percent of the whole US TV market that whole two three percent would be on

01:07:27 ◼   ► their App Store and even at two three percent of all households clearly I

01:07:33 ◼   ► I think that would make it the most popular platform

01:07:36 ◼   ► for developers already, even with just 2, 3% market share

01:07:40 ◼   ► because the whole thing is so fractured.

01:07:42 ◼   ► - Especially if they made it open.

01:07:46 ◼   ► Like the trouble with stuff like the Xbox SDK

01:07:50 ◼   ► is that they're still very tightly controlling.

01:07:52 ◼   ► - Right.

01:07:54 ◼   ► Right, that's maybe my biggest--

01:07:55 ◼   ► - I also can't see that being the only way

01:07:58 ◼   ► to run Apple TV apps.

01:07:59 ◼   ► Like I could see that being the preferred way,

01:08:01 ◼   ► Like maybe the Apple TV has, you know,

01:08:05 ◼   ► you don't need to have some sort of other input

01:08:09 ◼   ► for the whatever remote control they have

01:08:11 ◼   ► or something like that.

01:08:12 ◼   ► But I can't see them forcing you to buy it,

01:08:16 ◼   ► a whole television to run.

01:08:18 ◼   ► - Yeah, I've thought the same thing too,

01:08:19 ◼   ► that even if they come out with a TV set,

01:08:21 ◼   ► they'd still have set top boxes

01:08:23 ◼   ► that you could put into other TV sets.

01:08:26 ◼   ► But then you get into questions of, you know, latency

01:08:29 ◼   ► And if you have apps that depend upon the lesser latency

01:08:34 ◼   ► of the native, you know, the whole shebang built

01:08:38 ◼   ► into the Apple one by itself,

01:08:39 ◼   ► how do they run on the one that's hooked up by HDMI

01:08:42 ◼   ► and has additional latency or something like that?

01:08:46 ◼   ► I don't know.

01:08:46 ◼   ► But yeah, I agree with you though.

01:08:49 ◼   ► I don't think that they would do it that way.

01:08:51 ◼   ► - Did you see any smartwatches you liked this week?

01:08:57 ◼   ► - No, not at all.

01:08:59 ◼   ► Although wearables totally seem to be the second big theme

01:09:02 ◼   ► of the show, especially, I think,

01:09:07 ◼   ► I mean it seemed to me from my,

01:09:09 ◼   ► the coverage I saw sitting at home, wrist wearables.

01:09:14 ◼   ► Some of them watches, some of them more like the,

01:09:17 ◼   ► maybe by quantity more of them more like a Nike Fuel band,

01:09:20 ◼   ► like a plain band around your wrist.

01:09:23 ◼   ► I got people upset, I guess,

01:09:27 ◼   ► when I called out the Pebble Steel as being ugly.

01:09:31 ◼   ► - It's horrible.

01:09:32 ◼   ► - Right, I don't know.

01:09:33 ◼   ► - It reminds me of like the old Casio watches

01:09:37 ◼   ► that my uncle Stash had in like the early 90s.

01:09:40 ◼   ► - Yeah, and you can still buy those at like American Apparel

01:09:43 ◼   ► and it's sort of like American Apparel style retro hip.

01:09:46 ◼   ► Like they'll also sell you a pair of like,

01:09:49 ◼   ► you know, like the eyeglasses my dad was wearing in 1982.

01:09:53 ◼   ► - Right.

01:09:54 ◼   ► The metal bar across the top.

01:09:56 ◼   ► But it's almost, to me, it's more almost like a knockoff of those Casios.

01:10:00 ◼   ► Just like the integration of the band to the watch face.

01:10:05 ◼   ► It just seems really, really clunkily done.

01:10:08 ◼   ► And I...

01:10:09 ◼   ► I like the first ones more.

01:10:12 ◼   ► I don't have one, but...

01:10:13 ◼   ► I do have one.

01:10:14 ◼   ► I have one.

01:10:15 ◼   ► So I do have some experience, you know, speaking of it.

01:10:18 ◼   ► But like I wrote on Daring Fireball, at least the other one, the original one, to me it's

01:10:23 ◼   ► true to itself.

01:10:24 ◼   ► Is it a beautiful watch?

01:10:25 ◼   ► No, but it's, to me, it's no uglier than any other digital watch.

01:10:31 ◼   ► It's a slightly awkward form factor maybe, but you know, it's to support its, what's

01:10:38 ◼   ► that called, a portrait landscape display.

01:10:42 ◼   ► I think it's a big step backwards in my opinion, because I feel like they've concentrated like,

01:10:48 ◼   ► and effectively from everything I've read, that like the screen resolution is exactly

01:10:52 ◼   ► the same, the screen technology is the same, the insides are the same, like they

01:10:56 ◼   ► they're like effort over the last year has been to to make these metal watches

01:11:03 ◼   ► and metal and leather bands as opposed to improving the thing that I think they

01:11:07 ◼   ► should have been working on which is the software and I know they have a 2.0

01:11:11 ◼   ► software release coming too but it it's not a better computing device it's just

01:11:16 ◼   ► supposedly a better a more attractive watch but to me it's not it's really

01:11:20 ◼   ► horrid. It's like if the Juju people had spent that whole year making the case

01:11:27 ◼   ► look better because that's what was gonna make it more competitive

01:11:31 ◼   ► against the inevitable iPad. Right, and the thing that got me, and no offense to

01:11:35 ◼   ► the Pebble people, and I'm rooting for them, I hope Pebble becomes a long-term

01:11:38 ◼   ► success in terms of, you know, who I would love to see a public company like Pebble

01:11:43 ◼   ► grow and become a success. I just feel like this generation is a step

01:11:47 ◼   ► backwards and that they've lost their way or they've lost their eyes off the

01:11:53 ◼   ► ball but they said it's like pebble came out at CES and said we've made our

01:11:57 ◼   ► watches look better and all the tech press was like pebble has made their

01:12:01 ◼   ► watches look better because that's what they said as opposed to actually

01:12:04 ◼   ► looking at them and just saying man these are watches are ugly yeah so

01:12:12 ◼   ► So here's the next annoying trend for the next year, maybe forward, is tech companies,

01:12:20 ◼   ► the nerdiest of nerdy tech companies pretending that they have friends in the fashion industry.

01:12:29 ◼   ► Case in point, this invitation my wife, who is a fashion journalist, got inviting her

01:12:34 ◼   ► from Intel to the CES wearable technology briefing for an intimate session on what's

01:12:40 ◼   ► next for Intel in fashion? This is a microchip company, semiconductor company, inviting fashion

01:12:48 ◼   ► people to hear what they're doing in fashion. I can't even imagine how awesome that was.

01:12:54 ◼   ► I think my favorite part of that invitation is the word next. As though there have been

01:12:59 ◼   ► previous Intel, as opposed to Intel's previous forays into fashion. Like when they took Pentium

01:13:08 ◼   ► three chips that failed testing on the assembly line

01:13:11 ◼   ► and turned them into necklaces.

01:13:14 ◼   ► - When they added YKK zippers to the bunny suit.

01:13:17 ◼   ► That's what they did for this.

01:13:20 ◼   ► Yeah, so that's, of course, Apple,

01:13:26 ◼   ► they just hired the CEO of Burberry, so that's cool,

01:13:29 ◼   ► but this is just gonna be on and on and on about,

01:13:32 ◼   ► what was the one I read, this department store

01:13:37 ◼   ► called Opening Ceremony is doing something with some,

01:13:41 ◼   ► I don't remember, some wearable tech stuff.

01:13:44 ◼   ► It's all this wearable tech stuff.

01:13:45 ◼   ► Oh, we got fashion people, it's gonna be okay.

01:13:48 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:13:50 ◼   ► - I feel like, I don't know,

01:13:54 ◼   ► I feel like different people obviously have different tastes

01:13:56 ◼   ► and of course, no doubt, zero doubt in my mind,

01:13:59 ◼   ► of course there's some people who think

01:14:01 ◼   ► the new Pebble watches look either just fine or even good.

01:14:04 ◼   ► Of course.

01:14:05 ◼   ► But I think in the mass market, I feel very, very confident

01:14:08 ◼   ► betting that they are going to go over lead balloons.

01:14:13 ◼   ► And number two, they cost $250, which

01:14:16 ◼   ► I know by the standards of a Rolex or something like that

01:14:19 ◼   ► is low.

01:14:21 ◼   ► But it's probably a lot more than the average person has

01:14:26 ◼   ► ever spent on a watch in their life.

01:14:28 ◼   ► It's a decent chunk of change.

01:14:30 ◼   ► I mean, it's the same amount of money you spend on an iPod

01:14:35 ◼   ► or something like that.

01:14:36 ◼   ► And I feel like Pebble gets a pass

01:14:42 ◼   ► from a lot of the tech, either the tech press

01:14:45 ◼   ► or tech fans who read the tech press

01:14:49 ◼   ► because they're a little guy

01:14:51 ◼   ► and they're sort of an upstart.

01:14:52 ◼   ► But-- - Yeah, kickstarter,

01:14:54 ◼   ► success story, all this stuff. - Right.

01:14:55 ◼   ► But 250 bucks is 250 bucks.

01:14:57 ◼   ► And if they're charging $250 for a consumer

01:15:01 ◼   ► to buy this gadget, it should be judged

01:15:04 ◼   ► the same standards as say Apple or Amazon or Kindle, Samsung or anybody. It's the same

01:15:12 ◼   ► 250 bucks and you know if Apple came out with a watch that looked like the Pebble it would

01:15:19 ◼   ► and should cause their stock to collapse. It should cause like a 50% decrease in the

01:15:26 ◼   ► price of the stock because it would have to make you think that if they came out with

01:15:30 ◼   ► with a watch and it looked like the Pebble Steel.

01:15:33 ◼   ► I would say the company is doomed.

01:15:35 ◼   ► And every, I was wrong.

01:15:37 ◼   ► Steve Jobs was the entire company.

01:15:39 ◼   ► They're doomed.

01:15:42 ◼   ► - Johnny Ive is a fraud.

01:15:43 ◼   ► - Right.

01:15:44 ◼   ► And I'm not saying that that means that Pebble is doomed.

01:15:47 ◼   ► I just think it means though that Pebble still has a lot

01:15:49 ◼   ► of work ahead of them to get there because you can excuse

01:15:52 ◼   ► Pebble as an upstart for having something.

01:15:55 ◼   ► But I still feel like it's up to the tech press

01:15:58 ◼   ► and the critics to call it as they see it.

01:16:00 ◼   ► and as it is.

01:16:01 ◼   ► - Right, yeah, if it's an early adopter nerd toy

01:16:06 ◼   ► and that these guys are basically a lab upstart,

01:16:10 ◼   ► cool, that's awesome, but it's being pitched

01:16:12 ◼   ► as if it should be some sort of mainstream thing.

01:16:16 ◼   ► - Right, and I don't think it's there.

01:16:18 ◼   ► - I don't see it, I don't see it.

01:16:20 ◼   ► - I think the fitness trackers kind of sort of are,

01:16:23 ◼   ► if you're into that, and I was thinking about that this week.

01:16:27 ◼   ► It never really occurred to me before,

01:16:28 ◼   ► But everybody knows, everybody who follows this stuff

01:16:31 ◼   ► knows that Tim Cook has worn a Nike fuel band

01:16:36 ◼   ► for a couple of years at least.

01:16:38 ◼   ► - And is on the board of Nike.

01:16:40 ◼   ► - Right.

01:16:40 ◼   ► I can't remember any Apple executive

01:16:46 ◼   ► publicly using technology from any other company ever.

01:16:51 ◼   ► And I know now Apple and Nike have a kind of relationship.

01:16:54 ◼   ► And I know that, you know, like the integration

01:16:57 ◼   ► with the iPods, the, what's that thing,

01:16:59 ◼   ► it's like a dingus you put in your sneaker.

01:17:02 ◼   ► - Nike Plus.

01:17:03 ◼   ► - Yeah, whatever it's called,

01:17:04 ◼   ► but there's like a thing you can buy to put in your sneaker,

01:17:06 ◼   ► and when they announced it, I remember thinking like,

01:17:08 ◼   ► so is Jobs gonna wear Nike sneakers

01:17:11 ◼   ► instead of his New Balance, and he did.

01:17:13 ◼   ► Like for the one event, he had like a pair of Nikes on.

01:17:15 ◼   ► So it's not-- - Then he went back.

01:17:19 ◼   ► - Yeah, it was just for that event.

01:17:20 ◼   ► But, and I always wonder about that, like if, you know,

01:17:25 ◼   ► And I think about some of the stupidest things,

01:17:27 ◼   ► but because I feel like nobody else does.

01:17:28 ◼   ► Like I'd love to get the story on that.

01:17:30 ◼   ► Like did somebody have to go up to Steve Jobs

01:17:33 ◼   ► and say, "Hey Steve, it would be a lot better

01:17:35 ◼   ► "if you wore a pair of Nikes."

01:17:37 ◼   ► And like what was his reaction?

01:17:38 ◼   ► Or did Jobs himself say, "Give me a pair of Nikes

01:17:41 ◼   ► "to wear for this thing."

01:17:42 ◼   ► - Yeah, did he demo them?

01:17:44 ◼   ► I don't remember.

01:17:45 ◼   ► - I forget exactly how it went, but it was some kind of--

01:17:47 ◼   ► - When was that?

01:17:48 ◼   ► I don't even remember.

01:17:49 ◼   ► - I don't know.

01:17:50 ◼   ► It was a long time ago.

01:17:51 ◼   ► I'm gonna guess it was like '95 or 2005.

01:17:54 ◼   ► Mm-hmm 2004 2005. I'll have to look it up

01:17:58 ◼   ► But I can't you know

01:18:03 ◼   ► After that, it's not like Jobs was on stage wearing Nike shoes and he you know, certainly, you know, obviously he's not wearing the Nike shoes

01:18:09 ◼   ► He didn't have the Nike tracker in them

01:18:11 ◼   ► I

01:18:12 ◼   ► Can't remember anybody else wearing probably also not a fitness

01:18:16 ◼   ► Hobbyist no, I don't think so

01:18:22 ◼   ► But Tim Cook isn't he like yeah, he's a jock. Yeah, or if not a jock. He's like a

01:18:28 ◼   ► Hiker basically, I think you might remember, you know do like mountain biking and stuff like that

01:18:34 ◼   ► definitely fitness aficionado

01:18:37 ◼   ► And like you said he's on the Nike board, right? Yes, which has always been weird to me

01:18:43 ◼   ► Yeah recently like I see pulling an Eric Schmidt. I don't know and it's it would seem

01:18:49 ◼   ► extraordinarily out of character for him to pull a Nike an Eric Schmidt

01:18:53 ◼   ► Yeah, which would be to unveil like a Nike plus or Nike fuel band killer. Yeah, I

01:18:59 ◼   ► Apple guests guest watch or whatever right gasps band and it's not just because he's on the board and

01:19:06 ◼   ► you know and that he wears one, but they even specifically called out Nike when they announced the

01:19:12 ◼   ► the iPhone 5s with the

01:19:17 ◼   ► the m7 coprocessor

01:19:19 ◼   ► You know and that it's not just for the iPhone to use but third-party apps can tap into it and that Nike was the one

01:19:25 ◼   ► They called out

01:19:27 ◼   ► You know and that app has shipped and that Nike has an app that can use the data from you know

01:19:32 ◼   ► that they've

01:19:35 ◼   ► Apple stance on that has sort of been that you know that it's there for everybody to use not just them

01:19:40 ◼   ► Yes, you know

01:19:44 ◼   ► And I don't know whether they work together on something like that. I don't know. Well, I if you know

01:19:50 ◼   ► Like Apple's gonna make shoes. So I need shoes for something then

01:19:53 ◼   ► where I mean wearable stuff definitely as

01:19:56 ◼   ► Technology as everything shrinks, you know everything from cameras to to batteries to the CPUs

01:20:04 ◼   ► I mean wearable is obviously of you know future direction for computers

01:20:09 ◼   ► But what are they gonna do? Right? What's you know, I put it in

01:20:14 ◼   ► Clayton Christensen slash horse dead you terms what's the job to be done what are

01:20:20 ◼   ► you hiring these wearable devices to do and it seems like the one thing that's

01:20:25 ◼   ► been a success so far is stuff like the fuel band and Fitbit where you're hiring

01:20:30 ◼   ► these devices to track what you've done all day and tell you how far you've gone

01:20:34 ◼   ► and you know to help you track your goals for burning calories throughout

01:20:39 ◼   ► the day but that's a niche and I feel like it's already being satisfied I feel

01:20:43 ◼   ► like anybody who just wants to know how far they've walked,

01:20:46 ◼   ► how many stairs they've climbed,

01:20:50 ◼   ► you can already buy a device at a reasonable price

01:20:53 ◼   ► that works really well and integrates with your computer

01:20:58 ◼   ► so you can store the data and stuff like that.

01:21:01 ◼   ► I don't-- - And they're building it

01:21:04 ◼   ► into the iPhone, right? - Right.

01:21:07 ◼   ► - Just chips, so-- - It's already built

01:21:08 ◼   ► into the iPhone, you know, and I just don't see that

01:21:11 ◼   ► as a market that's ripe for disruption, right?

01:21:15 ◼   ► It just doesn't seem like there's any kind of problem

01:21:18 ◼   ► with those devices.

01:21:19 ◼   ► If all you wanna do is track fitness,

01:21:22 ◼   ► they seem to work really well and be pretty elegant

01:21:24 ◼   ► as opposed to the pre-iPhone smartphone market,

01:21:28 ◼   ► which was a mess and the phones had terrible interfaces

01:21:31 ◼   ► and confusing and everybody didn't know

01:21:36 ◼   ► how to use their phones.

01:21:37 ◼   ► And it was just ripe for something

01:21:40 ◼   ► like the iPhone to come in.

01:21:41 ◼   ► I just don't see that in the fitness tracking.

01:21:43 ◼   ► That's not to say, again, Apple surely is working

01:21:46 ◼   ► on wearable stuff, tiny little things,

01:21:48 ◼   ► but I don't think a fitness tracker is that.

01:21:52 ◼   ► - Yeah, right. - Could be something

01:21:53 ◼   ► that does fitness tracking as part of

01:21:56 ◼   ► a dozen other things, but not a dedicated--

01:21:59 ◼   ► - That's an app. - Right.

01:22:01 ◼   ► - On the device, just as iPod is also an app,

01:22:04 ◼   ► but whatever the music, you know the way.

01:22:06 ◼   ► So, yeah, I don't know.

01:22:09 ◼   ► And then what is the job that you're hiring it for?

01:22:12 ◼   ► - Yeah, I don't know.

01:22:13 ◼   ► I feel like that is just,

01:22:15 ◼   ► it was not answered by anybody at CES.

01:22:17 ◼   ► I didn't see anything that makes me think,

01:22:19 ◼   ► wow, that's any kind of important step forward in this.

01:22:23 ◼   ► I guess another thing I was--

01:22:24 ◼   ► - But did you see the wearable thing

01:22:26 ◼   ► that records audio around you for 90 minutes on loop?

01:22:30 ◼   ► - No, 90 seconds, I think.

01:22:32 ◼   ► - Oh, really?

01:22:33 ◼   ► Oh, okay.

01:22:34 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's like a 60 second continuum.

01:22:36 ◼   ► I forget the name of it.

01:22:37 ◼   ► I saw it on the verge of it.

01:22:38 ◼   ► - Fipi quarter?

01:22:39 ◼   ► I don't remember something like that.

01:22:40 ◼   ► - Well, it's interesting 'cause I do feel like

01:22:43 ◼   ► that's inevitably where some of this stuff is going.

01:22:47 ◼   ► The idea is you get 60 seconds of recording at all times

01:22:51 ◼   ► and it just drops off at,

01:22:53 ◼   ► 61 seconds ago just drops off at the end of the buffer.

01:22:56 ◼   ► But then if something has happened within the last minute

01:22:59 ◼   ► that you wanna save, you hit a button

01:23:01 ◼   ► and it saves that audio.

01:23:07 ◼   ► It's the audio equivalent of capturing that photo

01:23:11 ◼   ► that you're watching happen

01:23:13 ◼   ► as you take your phone out of your pocket.

01:23:15 ◼   ► - Right, and I remember, I forget who linked to it,

01:23:17 ◼   ► but one of the questions on the website is, is it legal?

01:23:21 ◼   ► - Yeah. (laughs)

01:23:22 ◼   ► - Which is half funny in the creepy sense

01:23:24 ◼   ► and half sort of, you know, we're gonna have to face this,

01:23:28 ◼   ► because just think, like, if you just go forward,

01:23:31 ◼   ► 10 years is probably even too much,

01:23:32 ◼   ► but 10 years from now,

01:23:36 ◼   ► the storage on our phone size devices is going to be so much bigger and hopefully

01:23:44 ◼   ► battery life will be so much better that doing something like recording a 60

01:23:48 ◼   ► minute buffer of audio you know would not strain the device at all and so why

01:23:53 ◼   ► not like how do you know if every if somebody isn't recording it and you know

01:23:57 ◼   ► and and project forward with something like Google Glass that people wear on

01:24:01 ◼   ► you know, his eyeglasses with a much smaller camera and heads-up display so

01:24:07 ◼   ► that you don't see it per se, you know, like what happens if you can't see the

01:24:11 ◼   ► camera in somebody's glasses? You have no way to distinguish between someone who's

01:24:15 ◼   ► wearing non smart glasses and regular glasses and it has the storage that it

01:24:23 ◼   ► can just store a 60-minute buffer at all times so that you don't have to record

01:24:27 ◼   ► in advance, you can just decide, hey, this last five minutes

01:24:31 ◼   ► has been sensational.

01:24:32 ◼   ► I just saw, I don't know, a cab burst into flames

01:24:35 ◼   ► on the street.

01:24:36 ◼   ► I've got footage of it.

01:24:37 ◼   ► I didn't remember to hit record, but I can just say right now,

01:24:40 ◼   ► hey, save the last five minutes.

01:24:42 ◼   ► Yeah, I just got into a really great argument

01:24:44 ◼   ► with a drunk guy.

01:24:46 ◼   ► I wish I could post that to SoundCloud or something.

01:24:49 ◼   ► I'm not entirely comfortable about that.

01:24:51 ◼   ► I don't think it's a great idea, but I'm--

01:24:54 ◼   ► It's happening.

01:24:55 ◼   ► Right.

01:24:55 ◼   ► There's no--

01:24:56 ◼   ► Exactly.

01:24:56 ◼   ► - And you can't escape it.

01:24:57 ◼   ► - Exactly.

01:24:58 ◼   ► That's my main point.

01:24:59 ◼   ► - It's the way it's gonna be, so.

01:25:01 ◼   ► - We kinda have to come to grips with it.

01:25:03 ◼   ► - Yeah.

01:25:04 ◼   ► - And figure out how, you know,

01:25:04 ◼   ► what's going to be considered acceptable and--

01:25:07 ◼   ► - And for better and worse,

01:25:09 ◼   ► like all those Russian dash cam videos are awesome.

01:25:12 ◼   ► They've way improved my life, so.

01:25:14 ◼   ► You know, there's absolutely an upside to this, so.

01:25:18 ◼   ► It's not a separate device, but it's an app on my Apple,

01:25:25 ◼   ► you know, whatever.

01:25:26 ◼   ► - I guess that's probably the best, you know,

01:25:29 ◼   ► in a weird way, those Russian dash cams,

01:25:31 ◼   ► which apparently everybody, I guess you have to have,

01:25:34 ◼   ► like your insurance even mandates it in Russia,

01:25:36 ◼   ► because-- - Something like that, yeah.

01:25:37 ◼   ► - So much insurance fraud and problems in Russia,

01:25:42 ◼   ► and in, you know, car insurance,

01:25:44 ◼   ► that everybody has these always-on dash cams

01:25:47 ◼   ► that are always recording when your car's on.

01:25:49 ◼   ► And so, yeah, like you said, YouTube is just full

01:25:53 ◼   ► of all sorts of fantastic footage

01:25:55 ◼   ► that never would have been captured before.

01:25:57 ◼   ► It's almost like that's the canary in the coal mine,

01:26:00 ◼   ► like the future of everything.

01:26:03 ◼   ► Like at some point, everything will be like Russian dash cam.

01:26:06 ◼   ► Everything that happens will be,

01:26:07 ◼   ► if it was, oh, I wish we could put that on YouTube,

01:26:10 ◼   ► you'll have it to put on YouTube.

01:26:12 ◼   ► - Well, shit, did you see the plane crash today?

01:26:15 ◼   ► You know, some guy had his,

01:26:17 ◼   ► what are the GoPro camera on while he was in a plane crash?

01:26:21 ◼   ► can survive, but there's a YouTube video of it.

01:26:25 ◼   ► Is that true?

01:26:26 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:26:27 ◼   ► It was – maybe you woke up late, but when I was looking at Twitter this morning, that's

01:26:33 ◼   ► what everyone was retweeting.

01:26:34 ◼   ► But yeah, crazy.

01:26:37 ◼   ► The new normal is that everything is recorded.

01:26:40 ◼   ► So even scary stuff, we'll be able to see.

01:26:44 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:26:45 ◼   ► I didn't really see a lot in that direction at CES.

01:26:47 ◼   ► I kind of was wondering if we were gonna see

01:26:50 ◼   ► a bunch of Google Glass sort of

01:26:55 ◼   ► heads up display type things

01:27:00 ◼   ► and it didn't seem like anybody had anything like that.

01:27:04 ◼   ► - I thought I saw one but it was just very,

01:27:07 ◼   ► even more primitive than Google Glass.

01:27:11 ◼   ► - Yeah, it was almost more like an Oculus Rift

01:27:15 ◼   ► sort of thing. I saw somebody else had one that was meant for safety workers. Maybe it's

01:27:24 ◼   ► the one you're talking about, safety glasses with a built-in heads-up display.

01:27:27 ◼   ► Yeah, I think that might have been it.

01:27:30 ◼   ► Which I think is a fine idea. Somebody on Twitter, it was like, "Gruber said Google

01:27:36 ◼   ► Glass will never be useful." But I think something like safety glasses with a built-in heads-up

01:27:41 ◼   ► display. Well that's great because if you're already wearing safety glasses

01:27:44 ◼   ► you're not concerned about you know fashion at all. It's a practical you know

01:27:48 ◼   ► you're in a practical situation so why not have a heads-up display if it could

01:27:53 ◼   ► help you you know in terms of you know doing the job that you're doing to have

01:27:58 ◼   ► the safety glasses on in the first place. Right if you're you know like a chemist

01:28:03 ◼   ► or something like that you can have you know the step-by-step instructions for

01:28:08 ◼   ► - Construction worker or something, building a building,

01:28:11 ◼   ► and you wanna reference the plans.

01:28:14 ◼   ► - Right, or consult about the supplies, do I need--

01:28:18 ◼   ► - Or the IKEA instructions.

01:28:20 ◼   ► - Right, but it would be cool,

01:28:24 ◼   ► like if you're a construction worker and you need more,

01:28:27 ◼   ► I don't know, nails, that you could bring it up

01:28:30 ◼   ► on your heads up display and use gestures

01:28:34 ◼   ► or buttons on the side and then have them sent up to you

01:28:37 ◼   ► or something like that without having to take a phone out of your pocket or something like

01:28:42 ◼   ► that. That would be great. But I didn't see anything like that.

01:28:47 ◼   ► Dave: No. That's one of those things where maybe they're there hiding in the corner,

01:28:53 ◼   ► but no one posted it. I don't know. Someday I'll have to get out there and find the weird

01:28:59 ◼   ► stuff.

01:29:00 ◼   ► Dave: Let me take one last break here and thank our third sponsor before we finish up

01:29:04 ◼   ► the show. And our third sponsor, and it's a trifecta of longtime sponsors of the show,

01:29:12 ◼   ► is our friends at An Event Apart. An Event Apart is the conference for web and designers,

01:29:23 ◼   ► for people who make websites. It's an intensely educational two-day learning session for passionate

01:29:31 ◼   ► practitioners of standards-based web design. It was founded by web visionaries Eric Meyer

01:29:37 ◼   ► and Jeffrey Zeldman. Jeffrey Zeldman's name is all over the web standards movement. The

01:29:43 ◼   ► before and after of what it was like to make websites from when the web standards movement

01:29:48 ◼   ► started is like night and day. It's like--

01:29:50 ◼   ► >> Not to interrupt or be dramatic, but his book literally changed my life.

01:29:55 ◼   ► >> The orange one.

01:29:56 ◼   ► >> Yeah.

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01:29:59 ◼   ► >> Yeah.

01:30:00 ◼   ► When did that come out?

01:30:01 ◼   ► Probably like--

01:30:02 ◼   ► - I don't know, I bought it in like 2004.

01:30:05 ◼   ► - Yeah.

01:30:06 ◼   ► - So, and just learning web standards like,

01:30:10 ◼   ► completely changed the way I made websites.

01:30:12 ◼   ► - I wonder too, honestly,

01:30:14 ◼   ► I know again, sounds like hyperbole,

01:30:16 ◼   ► I genuinely wonder whether CSS ever would have made it

01:30:20 ◼   ► as a mainstream technology without Eric Meyer,

01:30:22 ◼   ► because Eric Meyer, he made it understandable, you know.

01:30:27 ◼   ► It's a weird way to specify styles,

01:30:30 ◼   ► And it was really weird compared to what we did before CSS on the web.

01:30:35 ◼   ► And it was very weird compared to what designers were used to in the print world.

01:30:39 ◼   ► And Eric Meyer really helped make that understandable.

01:30:42 ◼   ► Well, they're the two guys who started an event apart.

01:30:44 ◼   ► They're not the only speakers.

01:30:45 ◼   ► There's a whole great lineup of speakers.

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01:30:59 ◼   ► They have upcoming events in Atlanta, Seattle, Boston, San Diego, Washington, D.C., and Chicago.

01:31:11 ◼   ► And I think that only runs through August.

01:31:12 ◼   ► I think you go further, I think there's one in Austin coming up, San Francisco.

01:31:19 ◼   ► Check the website.

01:31:20 ◼   ► You'll find one near you for the coming year.

01:31:22 ◼   ► I've been to an event apart several times, I think three or four times, and it's always

01:31:27 ◼   ► great.

01:31:28 ◼   ► new every year the speakers are always on the cutting edge and stuff all sorts

01:31:35 ◼   ► of new stuff like stuff that we take for granted maybe even today like responsive

01:31:42 ◼   ► web design where you make one design that scales to go from everywhere from a

01:31:46 ◼   ► 3.5 inch iPhone to a 27 inch iMac came on stage at an event apart go to an

01:31:57 ◼   ► event and event apart.com. You'll find out more, you'll find

01:32:02 ◼   ► out the dates and the locations where they're coming. And if you

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01:32:16 ◼   ► find cities, schedules, tickets and more. Can't recommend it

01:32:20 ◼   ► enough. Great, great conference. And anybody who builds websites

01:32:25 ◼   ► if you owe it to yourself to go.

01:32:28 ◼   ► So what else?

01:32:32 ◼   ► CSCES.

01:32:33 ◼   ► I guess the only other big thing I saw

01:32:35 ◼   ► was that there's a lot of car companies who are there.

01:32:37 ◼   ► - Yeah.

01:32:40 ◼   ► - I don't know.

01:32:41 ◼   ► - And I wonder if they're, I mean,

01:32:43 ◼   ► I guess they want to be considered

01:32:46 ◼   ► consumer electronics as well.

01:32:49 ◼   ► That one's really hard for me

01:32:52 ◼   ► because I've never owned a car,

01:32:54 ◼   ► so I don't really know.

01:32:55 ◼   ► Like I remember when Cars got CD players,

01:32:59 ◼   ► and that was cool.

01:33:00 ◼   ► And now I get in the cab and they have the name

01:33:02 ◼   ► of the song that's playing.

01:33:03 ◼   ► And I still don't know how they did that,

01:33:06 ◼   ► but on the radio.

01:33:08 ◼   ► But yeah, no, and Ford and Microsoft, I guess,

01:33:12 ◼   ► have that kind of alliance.

01:33:14 ◼   ► - And there was something with Audi and Android,

01:33:19 ◼   ► but it seemed like it was a lot more hyped before CES

01:33:23 ◼   ► than when the show came and went in terms of anything

01:33:26 ◼   ► that was actually announced.

01:33:27 ◼   ► - Yeah, that stuff always just seems so forced.

01:33:33 ◼   ► - Yeah, I'm still waiting to see how the announced

01:33:38 ◼   ► back at WWDC, but still, it seems like the cards

01:33:43 ◼   ► aren't gonna come out until later this year,

01:33:44 ◼   ► how this iOS in the car turns out.

01:33:48 ◼   ► Which is more or less a way to let you use your iPhone,

01:33:52 ◼   ► presumably, but I don't know, maybe it'll work with iPads too. But you bring your iPad or iPhone to your car, plug it in, and

01:33:59 ◼   ► then the UI of your car is driven by iOS.

01:34:04 ◼   ► And I don't know, you know, I have so many questions about that.

01:34:08 ◼   ► I feel like, you know, all they did just kind of threw up a bunch of, you know,

01:34:11 ◼   ► here's the car companies who we've got on board so far.

01:34:13 ◼   ► And in theory, it sounds great. And one of the things that sounds great about it is that rather than build, say, build Android

01:34:22 ◼   ► 0.3 into the dash of your car, but then you keep your car for 10 years and 10 years from now

01:34:27 ◼   ► You're running an old version of Android if it was forward-thinking enough

01:34:31 ◼   ► And it was just you plug your phone in then when you get a new phone in a year or two

01:34:34 ◼   ► Your car gets smarter, too

01:34:37 ◼   ► Yeah, and you get new stuff and you keep going forward and a new OS and right apps and all that stuff

01:34:44 ◼   ► You know like in the same way that

01:34:48 ◼   ► Steve Jobs on stage seven years ago at the original iPhone introduction saying

01:34:52 ◼   ► Let's get rid of all these little plastic buttons on these phones because you can't change them over time

01:34:57 ◼   ► And if you come up with a new idea in six months

01:34:59 ◼   ► You can't add a new button or joystick or whatever to do it. Let's just make it all software

01:35:04 ◼   ► I feel like that same sort of logic applies to let's let the brains of the cars computer be your phone

01:35:11 ◼   ► Because you're gonna upgrade your phone a lot more fruit

01:35:14 ◼   ► Most people at least are gonna upgrade their phone a lot more frequently than their car

01:35:17 ◼   ► (laughs)

01:35:19 ◼   ► - Well, unless you lease.

01:35:20 ◼   ► I guess people who lease their cars tend to

01:35:23 ◼   ► maybe upgrade on a phone-like cycle,

01:35:26 ◼   ► but people who buy their car don't.

01:35:28 ◼   ► - Yeah, and I saw actually a really interesting chart

01:35:30 ◼   ► on Twitter today, which was how people commute.

01:35:34 ◼   ► And it was something like 70% of people commute

01:35:37 ◼   ► in a car by themselves.

01:35:39 ◼   ► So it actually is a real use case and a real market.

01:35:44 ◼   ► there's billions, I guess, of hours a year

01:35:48 ◼   ► are spent car commute.

01:35:50 ◼   ► So that's certainly a market for audio apps,

01:35:55 ◼   ► audio advertising.

01:35:59 ◼   ► I don't think games or video are really,

01:36:03 ◼   ► well, I guess for the backseat people.

01:36:04 ◼   ► - It's about attention, right?

01:36:06 ◼   ► I mean, attention, the quote, unquote, attention economy,

01:36:09 ◼   ► which is sort of a, sounds like a buzzword,

01:36:11 ◼   ► but I think it's an important,

01:36:14 ◼   ► It really is an important component of understanding the whole computer industry today.

01:36:22 ◼   ► I mean, that computer/entertainment industry is that all sorts of things are constantly

01:36:27 ◼   ► in flux except for the fact that we only have 24 hours a day.

01:36:33 ◼   ► Everybody only has so much attention.

01:36:36 ◼   ► It's a limited resource.

01:36:42 ◼   ► the supply is constant and the demand is ever growing.

01:36:47 ◼   ► Or I guess the supply of potential,

01:36:49 ◼   ► I guess it's that the,

01:36:50 ◼   ► I guess on the supply demand curve,

01:36:53 ◼   ► the demand is constant because we each only have

01:36:55 ◼   ► so much attention to give,

01:36:57 ◼   ► but the supply of what we could give it to is infinite.

01:37:01 ◼   ► - And has been mostly dominated

01:37:07 ◼   ► by terrestrial radio forever, basically.

01:37:11 ◼   ► Right. And even, you know, what's the bigger change in recent years has been satellite

01:37:15 ◼   ► radio, which is just terrestrial radio better.

01:37:22 ◼   ► Using a different distribution technology.

01:37:24 ◼   ► It's far closer to terrestrial radio in terms of experience and content than...

01:37:32 ◼   ► The Internet or anything.

01:37:33 ◼   ► Yeah. Exactly.

01:37:34 ◼   ► Anything interactive.

01:37:35 ◼   ► Yeah. I think it's interesting. I bet this is one of those things where just to get this

01:37:39 ◼   ► technology in the car probably has like at least a two year,

01:37:44 ◼   ► maybe three year lead time.

01:37:45 ◼   ► Right.

01:37:46 ◼   ► So that's probably part of the answer as to why it's one of

01:37:50 ◼   ► those things that they kind of mentioned quickly and then hope

01:37:54 ◼   ► you don't think too much about unless you're going to be

01:37:56 ◼   ► developing for that sort of thing. But once it's in there,

01:38:01 ◼   ► if it is modular, and if it's something that you know, your

01:38:04 ◼   ► phone is powering, it's kind of like a real a real use case for

01:38:09 ◼   ► the palm folio.

01:38:11 ◼   ► Yeah, maybe.

01:38:12 ◼   ► But it really is built into a car.

01:38:14 ◼   ► It actually makes sense.

01:38:15 ◼   ► But I think like you said with that statistic where 70% probably Americans, as God it can't

01:38:21 ◼   ► be, you know.

01:38:22 ◼   ► I think, yeah.

01:38:23 ◼   ► I mean, America is clearly skewed in that direction of solo commuters in a car.

01:38:32 ◼   ► But it's certainly not unique.

01:38:36 ◼   ► I mean there's you know people who drive to work all over the world but if you could get

01:38:41 ◼   ► them to shift their keep me from being bored to death while I do this for an hour or two

01:38:48 ◼   ► hours or you know I'm not there's all sorts of statistics you know on that number of people

01:38:53 ◼   ► who have like two hour plus commutes a day and shift that keep me from going insane out

01:39:00 ◼   ► of boredom from the radio, whether it's terrestrial or satellite, and switch that to iOS or Android

01:39:07 ◼   ► or any other platform.

01:39:09 ◼   ► Boy, that's a huge opportunity to suddenly have two more hours of somebody's attention

01:39:14 ◼   ► a day going into the app economy instead of the radio economy.

01:39:20 ◼   ► Dave Asprey Yeah.

01:39:22 ◼   ► I guess the early adopters are the New York City cabbies who have chat lines that they're

01:39:28 ◼   ► on all day, which is kind of interesting. That's not really a mainstream thing, but

01:39:34 ◼   ► that's certainly one thing that could be more easily done with some sort of app platform

01:39:40 ◼   ► in your car.

01:39:41 ◼   ► Yeah. I have no doubt in my mind. I mean, I haven't conducted a survey. Maybe I should.

01:39:47 ◼   ► I don't know. But there's no doubt in my mind that the whole rise in podcasting as a popular

01:39:54 ◼   ► and something that can actually be a business is in large part driven by commuters.

01:40:00 ◼   ► Dave: Definitely.

01:40:02 ◼   ► Dave: Yeah.

01:40:03 ◼   ► I mean, I don't commute so I listen to far fewer podcasts than probably most people who

01:40:08 ◼   ► listen to this show.

01:40:11 ◼   ► But I think back to the years when I did commute.

01:40:14 ◼   ► And then this is the thing where it doesn't even matter if you're in a car or not.

01:40:16 ◼   ► I mean, people who walk to work or take a subway to work or anything like that, any

01:40:20 ◼   ► kind of public transportation, you can listen to podcasts.

01:40:24 ◼   ► And there's no doubt in my mind that commuting is the attention fuel behind podcasting as

01:40:30 ◼   ► a business.

01:40:31 ◼   ► Dave Asprey Yep.

01:40:33 ◼   ► Yeah, I think that'll be definitely one of the home screen apps on whatever that UI looks

01:40:41 ◼   ► like.

01:40:42 ◼   ► Justin Perdue But I think wouldn't it be great if to get

01:40:43 ◼   ► Dave Asprey Marko's forecast or whatever it's called.

01:40:46 ◼   ► Justin Perky Wouldn't it be great to get your podcast?

01:40:48 ◼   ► Dave Asprey Thundercats.

01:40:49 ◼   ► Justin Perky Yeah, Thundercats.

01:40:50 ◼   ► Thundercats.

01:40:51 ◼   ► Dave Asprey What's Marko's podcast app called?

01:40:52 ◼   ► I forgot.

01:40:53 ◼   ► Overcast. Overcast, sorry. Oh, that's a good name. Yeah, damn, that's a good name.

01:41:00 ◼   ► Wouldn't it be great if your podcasts that were on your phone were as natively accessible in the car as turning on the radio?

01:41:11 ◼   ► Right? That to me is what this iOS in the car hopefully is getting at, where you don't...

01:41:16 ◼   ► It's not like you're sitting there fiddling with cable connectors and a phone interface

01:41:21 ◼   ► that isn't really meant to be used while you're in the car, you know, like when you want to turn

01:41:25 ◼   ► on the radio, you just punch a button. Right? And then if you want to change the station,

01:41:29 ◼   ► you twist the dial. Wouldn't that be great if you could pick through your podcast that easily?

01:41:33 ◼   ► And that drives me nuts that Siri doesn't understand the concept of a podcast. Like if I say,

01:41:41 ◼   ► play the latest episode of the talk show. It just even in the

01:41:44 ◼   ► native Apple podcast app. Yeah, like in theory, boy, it would be

01:41:48 ◼   ► great if you get Siri, you know, and, you know, and this opens up

01:41:52 ◼   ► and we could do a whole show about, you know, yeah, Siri and

01:41:55 ◼   ► third party apps. But boy, wouldn't it be great if you

01:41:57 ◼   ► know, every podcast app could just provide Siri with look,

01:42:02 ◼   ► here's a structured data in the format you want of, here's the

01:42:06 ◼   ► the content I have to offer.

01:42:08 ◼   ► And so that the person can say play

01:42:11 ◼   ► the newest episode of the talk show in Overcast.

01:42:16 ◼   ► - And where I left off listening on my headphones

01:42:20 ◼   ► 'cause iCloud knows.

01:42:22 ◼   ► - Right, well I guess that would be up to each app.

01:42:24 ◼   ► But each app could sync it their own way over IP.

01:42:27 ◼   ► - But even when podcasts were part of the iTunes app,

01:42:31 ◼   ► the music app, iPod, whatever it was called,

01:42:33 ◼   ► it still couldn't handle it.

01:42:36 ◼   ► It can do songs, it can do albums,

01:42:38 ◼   ► and all that kind of stuff, but can't handle podcasts.

01:42:42 ◼   ► - Right. - So I hope that's--

01:42:43 ◼   ► - And the other thing too that occurs to me

01:42:45 ◼   ► is clearly the future of entertainment in your car,

01:42:47 ◼   ► if not the present, right?

01:42:49 ◼   ► I'm sure there's a lot of people, it's already the present,

01:42:51 ◼   ► but the future of entertainment in your car,

01:42:54 ◼   ► it's not FM radio, and I think it's not satellite radio.

01:42:58 ◼   ► I mean, I think satellite radio is a temporary cliche.

01:43:01 ◼   ► - Yeah, when Howard Stern goes into podcasting,

01:43:05 ◼   ► It's cellular IP, right?

01:43:08 ◼   ► And why pay for some kind of cellular IP built into the car

01:43:13 ◼   ► when you've already got your phone with you

01:43:15 ◼   ► every single time you step into the car

01:43:16 ◼   ► and your car has plenty of energy to spare

01:43:21 ◼   ► to keep your phone charged while you use it?

01:43:24 ◼   ► It's, you know, so hopefully that's the future.

01:43:28 ◼   ► But there didn't seem to be any kind of major progress

01:43:31 ◼   ► on that front at CES.

01:43:32 ◼   ► And I was curious whether anybody was going to come out

01:43:35 ◼   ► with something compelling before Apple does.

01:43:39 ◼   ► And it doesn't seem like that happened.

01:43:41 ◼   ► - Nope.

01:43:43 ◼   ► But maybe that's the wrong venue for it, I don't know.

01:43:45 ◼   ► - Yeah, maybe, you know, you never know.

01:43:47 ◼   ► But then why else would all these car people be at CES?

01:43:50 ◼   ► - They say that for the car show or something like that.

01:43:52 ◼   ► I don't know, Detroit car show or something.

01:43:55 ◼   ► - Anything else?

01:44:00 ◼   ► - I'm good.

01:44:01 ◼   ► - Oh, that's about it.

01:44:02 ◼   ► So next year we're going to Vegas.

01:44:04 ◼   ► - We have to, yeah, let's do it.

01:44:06 ◼   ► Someone's gotta sponsor it, but let's do it.

01:44:10 ◼   ► Someone call Samsung, get us a...

01:44:13 ◼   ► - Yeah, somebody like Samsung

01:44:14 ◼   ► should be the one to sponsor it.

01:44:16 ◼   ► - Yeah, then we'll do a live show at CES.

01:44:20 ◼   ► We'll have, I don't know, special guest.

01:44:24 ◼   ► All right, I'll get on it.

01:44:27 ◼   ► I'll make it happen.

01:44:28 ◼   ► - All right.

01:44:29 ◼   ► Dan Fromer, thank you so much.

01:44:32 ◼   ► throughout, what do you want to promote?

01:44:34 ◼   ► - Hey, let's plug my podcast this week.

01:44:36 ◼   ► - Oh, let's plug that.

01:44:37 ◼   ► - Because I promised my wife we'd do one this weekend.

01:44:41 ◼   ► So we'll have a new episode.

01:44:43 ◼   ► It actually, it's called The Needle and the Mouse,

01:44:46 ◼   ► and it covers some of the topics

01:44:48 ◼   ► we were talking about today,

01:44:49 ◼   ► specifically the intersection of technology and fashion.

01:44:53 ◼   ► So we talk about stuff like why are TVs so ugly

01:44:58 ◼   ► and wearable and all that crap.

01:45:00 ◼   ► So theneedleinthemouse.com.

01:45:03 ◼   ► - And that's spelled out A-N-D, the needle in the mouse.

01:45:06 ◼   ► So I bet if you just Googled,

01:45:07 ◼   ► just Google search for the needle in the mouse podcast,

01:45:10 ◼   ► it'll show up.

01:45:11 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's fun.

01:45:11 ◼   ► We try to do it every couple weeks and it's been great.

01:45:15 ◼   ► - Well, I think it's a ripe topic for a show.

01:45:20 ◼   ► I think you easily fill up next two, three years.

01:45:25 ◼   ► And the Mac people will appreciate our logo,

01:45:28 ◼   ► which is the old Mac mouse.

01:45:31 ◼   ► - Nice, very, very nice.

01:45:33 ◼   ► All right, thank you, Dan.

01:45:35 ◼   ► - Yeah, thanks for having me.

01:45:36 ◼   ► - All right.

01:45:37 ◼   ► - See you in Vegas.