142: ‘They Sherlocked F.lux’, With Special Guest Dan Frommer
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you were at CES i was now correct me if I'm wrong
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so this is the second year ok and you came on the show last year and talked
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about ces writing this might be our third or fourth the annual CES
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discussion with and I think the first 2i didn't go and we were like oh we should
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go and last year I went for the first time my it is absolutely a John groover
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the talkshow tradition that like mid january i have someone on we talk about
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ces and then I say you know what damn it next year I'm going next year comes and
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goes and I don't go
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you almost need to start planning it now and it's funny because they've already
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changed the website over to 2017 CES right I wonder if they have a script
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that does that it was like the next day boom yeah the websites already turned
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over is great man i loved it it was super fun it's it's absolute insanity I
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mean you go to Vegas a lot it is and i have i had not been to Vegas in 10 years
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actually before last year's CES and it is absolute chaos
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I mean there are 200,000 people there who do not belong they are there from
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its really it's kind of neat because basically what happens is at the
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beginning of the year you know that not everyone but I'll a lot 200,000 people
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who work in tech and in adjacent industries are all living in one city
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for a week so you run into people who you know you would not expect to see I'm
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totally like randomly ran into a guy in a restaurant we were both waiting to eat
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at the bar and we ended up eating lunch together who's like was partially
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responsible for the creation of the mp3 random random stuff like that and then
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you're like reading slack and your co-workers like hey you know that Reed
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Hastings is giving a talk across you know in in another place in Vegas like
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now I didn't know that you know there's just so much going on it's it's absolute
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madness and chaos but if you can tolerate it and I guess enough trip to
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Tokyo have now made me totally chilled out around massive crowds it's really
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cool it's very special
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I think the crowds they wouldn't that wouldn't bother me i can take crowds in
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small doses and I me when I go to design a couple times a year and stuff like
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that I I would i like though with if you go somewhere like that is if you can
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take the time to spend sometime somewhere away from the crowd every day
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yeah where it gets to you and I don't mind the actual crop work gets too is
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that the the infrastructure is just way beyond capacity I mean did people are
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talking about waiting an hour just to get on the monorail just getting into
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the station or you know you go you want to go anywhere to eat lunch forget it
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like you're waiting or they have this shuttle bus that goes from one because
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it because it basically takes up both the sands and the las vegas convention
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centers and they have a shuttle bus a free shuttle bus that goes between them
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it can't be more than a mile and you know what it's not far now and I've
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walked it and it's totally walkable I mean there's barely any sidewalk but
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this bus trip takes like 40 minutes because there's so much traffic because
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everyone else is in a cab trying to get between these places and it's just
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madness
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last year I stayed at the fairly far south end of the strip and this year one
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of my priorities was stay somewhere further closer to the action at least
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you could walk from south is the airport side right back down by mandalay bay
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yeah manually bit funny i mightn't in my head I feel like that's up like that's
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up the strip hell ya down the strip is down by like the weirdest here
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yeah but it's the other way around right right yeah and so that was useful
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although a lot of the stuff a lot of the like official press conferences are at
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mandalay bay crazy though it's like so far away i know i'm i'm in a fortunate
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position where I could basically pick you know courts where I work
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qz com is a you know where were still small enough that we can be picky about
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what we cover so i don't have to actually go and live blog and end video
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press conference or something like that no one's telling me I need to do that so
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i actually got to skip all those official press conference type thing so
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I didn't actually have to go down to mandalay bay this time but a lot of a
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lot of the action like the good stuff's going on at Metro cosmopolitan at the at
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the at the win and venetian so you really want to be hanging out toward
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kind of centered in North yeah strip most of the time so it was anybody else
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when courts there or were you the only representative reports there
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um no several I think there were four of us this year to from our ad side and
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then my colleague Mike Murphy who's a reporter who writes about we we have a
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beat called machines with brains and its drones robots ki and that kind of stuff
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and he was very busy there's a lot although he did he uh huh
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he came to CES with a cold you can't do that because you're going to get sick by
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the end but you can't show up with a cold so I felt bad about that but so
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yeah he was there with me and we were we were basically just you know doing
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meetings hitting the show floor the show Flores is comically extensive like you
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can walk I I you know I had my Apple watch with me so wednesday was my was my
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busiest day I think I walked over 14 miles on Wednesday whereas an average
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day prior walk like six to eight
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yeah that's not 40 anything over Tennyson I did 27,000 steps so that was
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that was pretty crazy in Boots to which was dumb but it cool so that it's a
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recurring theme and i know we say this every year but that everybody goes to
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see as quote unquote everybody does but and then all all the writers they all
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say they hate it
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everybody just as soon as it hasn't even started yet and you twitter is filled
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with you know people on in our racket saying how much they hate it ah which
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always makes me think well then why do you go you know like why does everybody
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go to this thing that they hate but I'm exactly with you my temptation to go is
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it's because I obvious i could write whatever the hell I want
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so I'm not going and I can skip whatever I want so why understand that the hatred
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comes from people who if you get an assignment from an editor and they're
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like here here's your list of
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press conferences to go to figure out what's new from you know
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LG and Samsung and you know whoever and it all just starts to blur together
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because everybody is making the exact same things 55 inch android phones and
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tablets and curved oled tvs and it all just blurs together and then you've got
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a schlep from one end to the other and it's got to be back-breaking if you you
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know can't pick and choose where you go
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one of the things we we struggled with was we shot a video
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Mike Mike put on this exoskeleton suit that's designed to age you to like a
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hundred years old or something like that and do various things had like VR
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goggles built in and and things that would make your muscles that basically
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make your body move more slowly and they would affect your vision and all this
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stuff and we took this video of him in the suit and then we realized that we
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literally didn't have the ability to upload the video to dropbox like we like
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what I'm not going to tether on my cell phone and do it our hotel Wi-Fi sucks we
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couldn't do it's like okay we almost have to go to a starbucks and I wonder
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if the press room had a free ethernet connection we didn't actually go in the
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press room because it it seemed like it was kind of a dump but that actually
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that would have solved our problem but it's just stuff like that where you're
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just completely out of your element but it's amazing like you go
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one of the things we did is we scrape the list of exhibitors and just did some
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very basic text analysis to see if there's any anything interesting we
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could find one thing that was was cool was over 500 of the companies had the
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word shen zhen in the title of the company huh that there are miles and
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miles and miles of tiny booths with one or two people from from shenzhen from
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China who come to America once a year and there they are and i got a great
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little tour from a you know a little old lady of her line of perfect GoPro
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knockoffs and you know she's like giving me a demo of these things the same case
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same size you know looks exactly like a GoPro but it's sixty dollars or
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something like that and it was she was she saying it looks like a go pro or yes
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that so she was mentioning the word go pro
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blah yeah totally like that's the same cases the cover actually one of the
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booths you price saw this one of the booths that the one of the hoverboard
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knockoffs was so similar to this one specific a kind of balance board thing
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that the US Marshals rated it
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no I don't do this oh yeah I think Bloomberg got tipped off because i think
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some other sites got tipped off to and they videotaped it and basically the US
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Marshals rated a booth they confiscated all the product and shut these guys down
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yeah yeah it's great i mean there are there a lot of knockoff looking things
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and i believe the bloomberg article interviewed someone from the the people
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who put together the show and there you know that they're kind of as long as
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you're not i forgot what the the kind of limitations are but basically like don't
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be too fake i think is the is the line so in this case that didn't that didn't
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work out that's got to be such a surprise to the vendor like I because
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you know i mean it's like yeah there's the culture of how we value knock off
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some it's so different between here in China and it's obviously it you know the
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whole concept of intellectual property isn't really like at an institutional
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cultural thing over there like there's no way that they would have that had to
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be a complete surprise because if they would have thought it's even a
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possibility they will be a dial it back i think so i did it seemed like they
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were surprised I wasn't there and actually try to look for the booth but I
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couldn't really find it is in it wasn't really worth putting a lot of effort
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into but that's the kind of stuff that goes on and but meanwhile there's like
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forty different drone companies and you know of all shapes and sizes a bunch of
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a bunch of companies who paid up big bucks for big boots like the size of an
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intel booth from from China that you know you really haven't heard of unless
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you're in the TV industry so it was it was really fascinating you realize how
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insignificant you are in the world when you're at CES like there's just so much
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stuff you
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never heard of and there's so many people who are doing stuff that you know
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is similar to what you're doing but you've never heard of before and you
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walk around exhausted dehydrated and it's cool i love it it's great fire died
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rato can you just go can get water
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I guess I get yeah I i actually I joke about this but like I almost set
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calendar reminders saying OK drink water right now make sure you have lunch
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because then it's three o'clock and you have any lunch and you're you know
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falling asleep i was carrying around a kind bar in my backpack just to make
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sure that I think he did some protein I'd still be alive
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I find that true AI do i've developed that the reflexive habit of always be
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drinking something in Vegas so many yeah that's weird guys on coffee or you know
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afternoon whenever you wake up but then in the afternoon it's like at any free
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moment if you have an opportunity to put water in your hand do it and because
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it's like you've really done
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it's like in addition to you know the dehydrating effect of alcohol the desert
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air really is a thing if you're not used to it
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I mean it really even if you weren't even if you don't drink alcohol I mean
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you're going to get dried out in Vegas shockingly it was actually raining a
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couple of days which which was super weird
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yeah i remember i saw people complete you know and I and it definitely makes
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everything worse because any temptation to walk is is decreased people actually
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dry I've been out there when it rained and it's like people that the natives
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you know the people locals they don't know how to drive in the rain it's it's
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like just it's not i see obviously it's usually even in the winter you know
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about freezing but the road get a little wet and people like you're slipping and
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sliding like they don't even have to drive on roads
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yeah it was that was weird but it didn't get too bad so I like I a broad umbrella
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and I didn't have to use it so it was fine it was it was interesting though
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and I definitely feel like going back I'm just gonna go back next year from
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the am in the position to I think that like the you know in my advice to you
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would be you know do you think a little bit ahead of time and plan way ahead
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like that I booked my hotel in i want to say november and by then like I read
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every good place was sold out you really have to do it in like august or
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September whenever they open up reservations just book it and think a
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little bit ahead of time about what you want what you want to get out of it but
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really save a lot of time to wing it because there's just going to be stuff
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that you know either you don't know but until you get there or I'm always
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confused by just the basic schedule of CES this is the tell me if i'm wrong i
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think it is the the convention itself the show floor is wednesday thursday
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yeah it and it changes it was different this year though actually it was maybe
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that's why I'm confused then yeah I think this year it was wednesday
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thursday friday saturday but I think previous years it was like tuesday
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wednesday thursday friday i don't know it was definitely a day off this year to
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go later I think because of the holiday but but everybody who covers it for
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almost everybody comes it comes a couple days early because there's like pre-show
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announcements like like there's like the I don't know if they call them keynotes
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but there's like you know big keynote addresses that happen like this week
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like this year I like on monday and tuesday there are press conferences and
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then there are keynotes and their separate i guess i don't remember like
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Steve Ballmer always did what I was like the sunday night right
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the car mount yeah the kickoff I don't know like this year there were some
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things we were going to go on sunday and then I think there may have even been
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some stuff saturday or at least sunday and we decided to to fly in on monday
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and then leave friday
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and we did miss some stuff that happened Monday but tuesday like the show floor
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is not was not open yet although we got into do a couple meetings they like
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escorted us in and they were it was crazy like a lot of the booths were were
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barely have finished like the day before and people are definitely there all
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night working this setup up and it's absolutely like there's you could you
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could get killed by a machine any second like they were just lots of stuff going
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on and then Wednesday is when it was totally open and just chaos like I had a
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guided tour of the samsung booth but it was really not useful for any of us
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because there are just so many people standing between you and the
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refrigerator with the TV on it that you could barely even see it it was just
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absolute chaos
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ah and most of that stuff was at the las vegas convention center or is it split
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like the show floors were literally split between a convention center in the
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sands split and I I bet there's a some sort of theme to it like that so the
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basement of the sands has a lot of very small boots and that's actually one of
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the best things I did was I met up with a couple guys from Kickstarter and they
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took me on a tour of the little like that the interesting startups that had
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all either done Kickstarter's or we're going to be doing Kickstarter's and now
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is actually really cool because there's a bunch of stuff I'd never heard of and
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it was all pretty good just a lot of garbage everywhere so you have to try to
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find the good stuff that's the thing that I miss about macworld and macworld
[TS]
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was you know and and it's I've said that you know about it i'll say it again next
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year too but there's a whole reason I never got into the habit of going to CES
[TS]
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was that it overlapped with macworld and I went to Macworld and then even when
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macworld like after like Macworld's multi-year slow demise from being a
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thing to being literally nothing
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started with them moving the date around where they moved it to the end of
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january and then there was the one year where they had a super bowl weekend
[TS]
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which was stupid i forget what might it went into februari I think before they
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finally pulled the plug but even then when it wouldn't overlap it just felt
[TS]
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that felt like too much like it felt like I don't want to go to two of these
[TS]
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things if I don't have to so I'll just keep going to Macworld but that's what
[TS]
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one of the reasons i didn't get a habit of it but one of my favorite things
[TS]
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about going to Macworld without question was talking to the little booths the
[TS]
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little booths were always way more interesting than the big ones because
[TS]
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usually you you get to talk to the actual principles and there would always
[TS]
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be you know at least a couple of boots that were like wow I did not even know
[TS]
00:17:46
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that was possible type products
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yeah 11 of them i saw those pretty cool was was a very small booth of a company
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that makes this clip on camera that just kind of goes on your lapel and it's not
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recording video all day
[TS]
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it's constantly doing image image analysis and recognition and making a
[TS]
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text list via API of all the stuff that you've seen that day so
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wow that's crazy yeah i was very cool i actually have to write it up I i took
[TS]
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some photos of it and I'll write up a post about it but you know and it's this
[TS]
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is the kind of thing where it's like this is really cool technology
[TS]
00:18:24
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this could be a cool product in a couple years or a year or it could be nothing
[TS]
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but here these guys are you know they got kind of a you know it an ok looking
[TS]
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booth and this really interesting technology that you know it's actually
[TS]
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kinda cool like you know and of course with any camera that's always on privacy
[TS]
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concerns but you could maybe train it to your LinkedIn account so could tell you
[TS]
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who you're looking at a party or something like that
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I don't know it was interesting and it was one of those things that was like
[TS]
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all right this is kind of the value of of coming to a show like this because I
[TS]
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never probably would have met these people otherwise
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it's not like you're standing in the gigantic intel booth not wonder you know
[TS]
00:19:10
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wondering what you're doing there so that was pretty cool i saw there was an
[TS]
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episode of I mean it's not a new idea but the BBC show sherlock i think it was
[TS]
00:19:23
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sherlock but there was like a billionaire magnet bad guys sort of
[TS]
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person and he had like heads it had just had regular wire-rim glasses but when
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they use they showed his first person perspective it would instantly give him
[TS]
00:19:38
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a sort of profile of anybody whose face he was looking at you know their name
[TS]
00:19:42
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and you know some facts about them and I feel like we're I feel like that is like
[TS]
00:19:47
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it's still science fiction but it's very very near-term science fiction like
[TS]
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that's going to happen you know within the next decade
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yeah i mean i kind of i'm always the guy who wants I want the feet of random
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00:20:03
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Instagram photos that I'm in the background of now I do too
[TS]
00:20:07
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I'm you know I feel like we as a society and culture of just we're already
[TS]
00:20:13
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wrapping our heads around the fact that everything is on camera all the time
[TS]
00:20:17
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totally you know and it's you know it's like and some of the people who are
[TS]
00:20:21
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adjusting the slowest are the ones who really should be adjusting the quickest
[TS]
00:20:28
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you know like the way that when police officers have some kind of incident and
[TS]
00:20:31
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it's all caught on tape and you see that it's just absolutely horrible police
[TS]
00:20:37
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that's actually you know to me it's it's helping to make our society better
[TS]
00:20:41
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I mean there's obviously trade-offs big trade-offs and there's some definite
[TS]
00:20:44
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downsides to the lack of privacy but i think that specifically has been his
[TS]
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proven to be very powerful over the last couple years and you know it's what was
[TS]
00:20:55
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weird that was looking at up and seeing a guy wearing Google glass for the first
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time in over a year
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00:21:00
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yeah that was crazy that was a very weird its you do is anybody how many
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people do you see at CES wearing Google glass because i feel like if there's
[TS]
00:21:08
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anywhere left that people are still with pretending that Google glass is going to
[TS]
00:21:11
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be a thing it's the CES I saw two in a row and now is it like to in
[TS]
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basement of the palms dirt bombs the basement of the sands convention center
[TS]
00:21:23
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and that was at the whole show two guys and the one guy was like tall and large
[TS]
00:21:29
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and I was just kind of weird but that was less than it seems sometimes in New
[TS]
00:21:34
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York you see them when you're walking around over by the google offices but
[TS]
00:21:39
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otherwise I haven't seen one in over at least over a year
[TS]
00:21:43
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alright let's hold this I saw a more CS stuff to talk about but I mean myself in
[TS]
00:21:48
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so where to go to find out more go to their websites wealthfront dot-com / the
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talk show just a couple of points here
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well it more or less wealthfront is is an automated service that replaces like
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00:22:39
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a personal financial manager and the reason you might want to consider that
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00:22:49
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the details on the website but they're not really about like trying to
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00:22:51
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magically pick individual companies that their stock is going to go up that's
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00:22:55
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really really tough and most people who try that don't win with the way to win
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00:22:58
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in the long term is to go with index funds and that's what wealthfront mostly
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does but they charge way way less than a personal financial manager instead of
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00:23:13
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percent and they don't charge anything up to ten thousand dollars and for
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00:23:19
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listeners of the show who go to wealthtrack.com / the talk show that
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00:23:22
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actually raise that up to 15,000 so the first $15,000 you put in there just to
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come to read their full disclosure so here's here so you didn't get there til
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00:24:07
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Monday you're saying that's right mind would you do so what did you do on
[TS]
00:24:10
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Tuesday Tuesday I tuesday i woke up too early and got breakfast and then we went
[TS]
00:24:19
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to this meeting where Mike war the exoskeleton and was how did you set that
[TS]
00:24:25
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how did you set that meeting that's one of my worries is that I would go there
[TS]
00:24:28
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and without having set anything up and I don't have like this i don't have
[TS]
00:24:31
◼
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anybody to set stuff up for me and then get out there and I just you know end up
[TS]
00:24:35
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playing blackjack all day see that would be fun i would like to play blackjack
[TS]
00:24:38
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with you all day because as we'll discuss in a minute
[TS]
00:24:41
◼
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I did not play any blackjack so which is which is not excusable I don't wanna see
[TS]
00:24:47
◼
►
a dead then again I don't see how that is i know so so here's here's the worst
[TS]
00:24:51
◼
►
part of CES when you sign up for a press badge your email gets given to all the
[TS]
00:24:59
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3000 or whatever 2,000 companies that have signed up to exhibit and you get
[TS]
00:25:06
◼
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emails from about half of them
[TS]
00:25:08
◼
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I'm not even exaggerating like I this year was smart night I did the gmail
[TS]
00:25:13
◼
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thing where you can add a plus sign yeah so i made it you know Dan plus CES @
[TS]
00:25:19
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q.com so i could filter there are now all filtering into the toilet like I'm
[TS]
00:25:24
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not getting the people are still sending emails that are good for them but I'm
[TS]
00:25:27
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not seeing any of them so you get your old wino that matrix i just want to just
[TS]
00:25:34
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let me hold it is that yeah it instantly popped into my head
[TS]
00:25:38
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I mean it it's like if I was a type of dirtbags ran like a prl PR people are
[TS]
00:25:43
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dirt bag but if I was about to start sending email
[TS]
00:25:45
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those people I would have it right like a little script that takes any gmail
[TS]
00:25:48
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address with plus take out the plus you know i mean like it would be so easy to
[TS]
00:25:53
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algorithmically filter that out
[TS]
00:25:55
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yeah i mean i'm sure some a couple people remarked on that they're like oh
[TS]
00:25:59
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clever clever with the plus sign or whatever I mean I get a lot of email
[TS]
00:26:03
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from PR people as it is and I'm actually i would say pretty fair about just
[TS]
00:26:09
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asking people not to send me certain types of I know I find it so hard i get
[TS]
00:26:13
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a convention or conference or something like that I i'm terrible at staying on
[TS]
00:26:17
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top of my email on a normal day when I'm at my desk but it's really i always fall
[TS]
00:26:21
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behind and so to have have them making it even harder to to just keep an
[TS]
00:26:26
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eyeball on what's coming into my email would be would be terrible
[TS]
00:26:30
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the problem for me is that I've now been it inbox zero for four years which means
[TS]
00:26:35
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all day i'm constantly deleting emails i can I don't let them pile up anymore so
[TS]
00:26:41
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anyway so i would get you know invited to everything from like tours to
[TS]
00:26:47
◼
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meetings to press conferences and that kind of stuff and I accepted i think
[TS]
00:26:53
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five or six of the 10 roughly a thousand that I got and I said and those entities
[TS]
00:27:01
◼
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to be clear those came will be for long before the show even started because
[TS]
00:27:06
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it's it starts when you actually register with CES like in november or
[TS]
00:27:10
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whatever
[TS]
00:27:11
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yes ok yeah so you know and and some of them are like party invites the sum of
[TS]
00:27:18
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the stuff doesn't come until you know the week before or a couple days before
[TS]
00:27:23
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but a lot of the companies are you know trying to set up as many meetings as
[TS]
00:27:28
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possible
[TS]
00:27:29
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you can also kind of check what what topics you're interested in and I think
[TS]
00:27:33
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I was probably a little too excited about checking lots of different topics
[TS]
00:27:37
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that I should not have like audio you know you check off audio and then every
[TS]
00:27:42
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headphone companies emailing you asking for a meeting and that kind of stuff so
[TS]
00:27:45
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i think next year I'll probably be more selective about about that and do even
[TS]
00:27:51
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fewer meetings because they're there you know if you need to get a last minute
[TS]
00:27:55
◼
►
meeting there are pretty much always available this
[TS]
00:27:58
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that the stuff that's really cool is going to be kind of hard to access
[TS]
00:28:02
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anyway and those are the people who are least likely to set stuff up with you
[TS]
00:28:06
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ahead of time unless year you know whatever the verge or something like
[TS]
00:28:10
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that you get first dibs on a lot of stuff so yeah I said all that stuff up
[TS]
00:28:17
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and so what I said Tuesday you know I had a couple meetings and I had lunch
[TS]
00:28:23
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and then i went to a dinner probably and then met up with people
[TS]
00:28:30
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Oh tuesday i want your party and probably stayed out late and yeah and
[TS]
00:28:36
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that's what i said Rupert Murdoch that was kind of interesting and so where was
[TS]
00:28:42
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he he was just walking down the hall the win that's where he stayed so i actually
[TS]
00:28:48
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wrote this article so so one thing I didn't know and I thought it was going
[TS]
00:28:52
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to be I thought it was gonna be a bigger surprise to people then it turned out to
[TS]
00:28:56
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be no one really cared but so Eddy Cue was at CES and you you wrote an article
[TS]
00:29:03
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honest yes into any q's at CES speaking at Rupert Murdoch's private mini
[TS]
00:29:10
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conference which he holds in his suite
[TS]
00:29:12
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every year it's two days and he brings in like a fantastic list of people and
[TS]
00:29:19
◼
►
it's not for the public or anything it's 4 News Corp and Fox executives and this
[TS]
00:29:25
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year the people who were scheduled to present range from the CEO of snapchat
[TS]
00:29:30
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to send our from google CEO of Google eddy cue from apple and a bunch just a
[TS]
00:29:38
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bunch of other like the guy from salesforce.com a bunch of other really
[TS]
00:29:42
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high level of Benedict Devon's from andreessen horowitz some startup people
[TS]
00:29:47
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and so that's cool and I you know that's the kind of thing where it's like
[TS]
00:29:51
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►
there's this whole huge CES thing going on meanwhile in rupert murdoch sweet
[TS]
00:29:56
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there's like the best you know one of the best conference lineups in the world
[TS]
00:30:01
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and it's just for like a handful of top of executives who work for him but
[TS]
00:30:06
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that's the kind of thing you can do it see yes because so many of those people
[TS]
00:30:09
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are there anyway right
[TS]
00:30:10
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although i was interesting because of course
[TS]
00:30:12
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sample somewhat famously does not have an official presence at CES my guess is
[TS]
00:30:18
◼
►
that you know some people from Apple go just to kind of look at stuff that'd be
[TS]
00:30:22
◼
►
kind of silly not to how I'd i know for a fact that it and even when macworld
[TS]
00:30:28
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►
was a thing and it was coincident that there were people from the product
[TS]
00:30:32
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marketing group who I when every year just to do the due diligence of walking
[TS]
00:30:36
◼
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around you know and and the question was always whether we know what what they
[TS]
00:30:40
◼
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would put on their badge and notify my today just the you-know-what officially
[TS]
00:30:43
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go and they have apple on the badge and if people wanted to talk about they do
[TS]
00:30:46
◼
►
it they just didn't you know that it wasn't real cloak-and-dagger stuff they
[TS]
00:30:50
◼
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just you know but they were there to just see what else you know the industry
[TS]
00:30:56
◼
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is doing
[TS]
00:30:56
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yeah I mean maybe it'd be foolish not to I i think that someone was telling me
[TS]
00:31:01
◼
►
that they saw a couple Apple people you know this year just walking around but I
[TS]
00:31:07
◼
►
wasn't there for that but i wouldn't even be surprised if it's actually like
[TS]
00:31:09
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►
multiple teams you know like different yeah you know not even in coordination
[TS]
00:31:13
◼
►
you know the product marketing people they're just there in general but maybe
[TS]
00:31:16
◼
►
you know like notebook engineers are there just to look at all the crazy all
[TS]
00:31:20
◼
►
the crazy notebooks that are you know being put together
[TS]
00:31:23
◼
►
yeah I would and then you get to be in vegas right and maybe run into rupert
[TS]
00:31:29
◼
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murdoch he was you looked at he looked good he was wearing a nice suit and some
[TS]
00:31:33
◼
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sneakers walking down this walking down the hallway outside of a party that I
[TS]
00:31:38
◼
►
was leaving so it was just like in the hotel you mean I got a hallway
[TS]
00:31:42
◼
►
yes in the wind outside of one of their like nightclub e-type venues huh crazy
[TS]
00:31:49
◼
►
yeah but I mean today was up this was around I think 11pm or 1010 something
[TS]
00:31:56
◼
►
p.m. see that's why you go to see yes totally
[TS]
00:32:01
◼
►
yeah actually i'll never forget one of my when i worked at forbes now almost 10
[TS]
00:32:06
◼
►
years ago one of my colleagues wrote an article about actually may have been CES
[TS]
00:32:11
◼
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10 years ago where she was randomly at a booth when Bill Gates showed up to look
[TS]
00:32:18
◼
►
at the booth and what an interesting cool experience that was like can you
[TS]
00:32:22
◼
►
imagine being the the tiny booth operator and then
[TS]
00:32:26
◼
►
you like Bill Gates walks up and says hey give me a demo have to find that
[TS]
00:32:31
◼
►
article I wonder forbes has archives that may be forever work to trade show
[TS]
00:32:36
◼
►
booth I i don't think so i might when I was a kid my dad I think had a booth
[TS]
00:32:43
◼
►
there like a part of one at some point for a store he was involved in by I
[TS]
00:32:47
◼
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never had to work a booth i did when i worked at bare bones so cool for bbedit
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and I guess male Smith even at the time but we you know we have a booth at
[TS]
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macworld and it is grueling it in sometimes though it's it could be like I
[TS]
00:33:03
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don't know it's like three in the afternoon and you've been on your feet
[TS]
00:33:05
◼
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since nine and you've been spent making the same pitch over and over again and
[TS]
00:33:09
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you know I I repetition has never been good for me I mean not that I'm not good
[TS]
00:33:13
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at it but I get bored quickly but then all of a sudden like you you meet
[TS]
00:33:16
◼
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somebody and somebody will tell you this amazing story of how like bbedit you
[TS]
00:33:20
◼
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know save their website or something like that they take and they just want
[TS]
00:33:23
◼
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to thank you and you're just like oh my god that's amazing made my day
[TS]
00:33:26
◼
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you know let me go get it let me go get rich single and you can tell it to his
[TS]
00:33:30
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that's great but boy it is hard it is really hard and you can just see it
[TS]
00:33:35
◼
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right now and it's just it's just a funny thing to have on under my belt is
[TS]
00:33:40
◼
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experienced and now whenever i'm at a trade show and walk around I'd have the
[TS]
00:33:43
◼
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sympathy for every single person doing those you know working those boots that
[TS]
00:33:48
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I wouldn't have had otherwise
[TS]
00:33:49
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yeah it's grueling and you have like a tradeshow approved vendors that you have
[TS]
00:33:55
◼
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to do everything with and you know good luck this to you know 20-minute line for
[TS]
00:34:00
◼
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the bathroom and yeah so what else what else did you do at CES alli and I hung
[TS]
00:34:08
◼
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out with the with walt mossberg that was that was a highlight
[TS]
00:34:12
◼
►
I saw that that's what your eye I saw thing me I saw a periscope this is a
[TS]
00:34:17
◼
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visit my perspective it's oh I think it might have been
[TS]
00:34:21
◼
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like maybe like 1230 at night east coast time so would have been maybe like 930
[TS]
00:34:26
◼
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Vegas that sound about right
[TS]
00:34:27
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I think so and I saw somebody who I follow on twitter from the verge tweeted
[TS]
00:34:32
◼
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a link to periscope that their periscoping from inside a blinged-out
[TS]
00:34:37
◼
►
crazy blinged-out limo that new life had rented for some and I thought I got to
[TS]
00:34:43
◼
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see this because i don't know you know I know what a regular lemon looks like I
[TS]
00:34:47
◼
►
got to see what like a special you know call attention to it looks like so i put
[TS]
00:34:51
◼
►
the periscope on and it's a meal I and a couple of other people i knew from the
[TS]
00:34:55
◼
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verge and the inside of this limo it really was like it was like all that
[TS]
00:34:59
◼
►
leftover neon from Old Las Vegas was all inside this lemma basically and then it
[TS]
00:35:05
◼
►
the periscope is painting around and here's verge staffers and i was just
[TS]
00:35:08
◼
►
about ready to do not disconnect because it's a boy and then I see a guy and I
[TS]
00:35:12
◼
►
was like holy shit that one guy looks like dan frommer and I was like who is
[TS]
00:35:15
◼
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that and they're like and we've got damn from quartz and michael lee shit is dan
[TS]
00:35:19
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from where
[TS]
00:35:20
◼
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and I was like wow now it's like in right now i have a friend in the limo
[TS]
00:35:23
◼
►
now i'm interested and I noticed it seemed to me like everybody was a little
[TS]
00:35:27
◼
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tipsy and you were like this totally normal and now and then it got crazier
[TS]
00:35:34
◼
►
because then it got to the far side of this
[TS]
00:35:36
◼
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it was a truly massive limo and then all of a sudden Walt Mossberg and Kara
[TS]
00:35:40
◼
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Swisher were in there
[TS]
00:35:41
◼
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yeah they were riding in the backseat and I was fascinated that what you guys
[TS]
00:35:49
◼
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doing you guys were on your way from like one into the strip to the other we
[TS]
00:35:54
◼
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were all at a dinner that they have usually the last night or what you know
[TS]
00:36:01
◼
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one of the last night's every year kind of a press dinner and I guess we were
[TS]
00:36:07
◼
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all going to the cosmopolitan where there was a Twitter Spotify party and
[TS]
00:36:13
◼
►
rather than taking four cabs Neil I think threw his hands up and said let's
[TS]
00:36:17
◼
►
get a little so I just went in the limo and yeah that was it i mean it wasn't so
[TS]
00:36:26
◼
►
I don't think it was pre-planned or anything just happened was funny though
[TS]
00:36:30
◼
►
I did but it's the sort of thing that happens we like what you see on a pair
[TS]
00:36:34
◼
►
scope when they when they put the camera in your face well I never know what to
[TS]
00:36:37
◼
►
say i never would I don't want to set it was here it was funny though i am i'm
[TS]
00:36:42
◼
►
like they were like 300 people watching
[TS]
00:36:45
◼
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I enjoy periscope I but I'm it requires a certain personality that I i I'm not
[TS]
00:36:50
◼
►
in possession of to really be good at it
[TS]
00:36:53
◼
►
I haven't done i don't think i've ever done one the other problem I have with
[TS]
00:36:58
◼
►
it at last time I tried using it i think i tried using it when the Pope was in
[TS]
00:37:01
◼
►
town here in philly and I was doing some periscopes walking around at the crazy
[TS]
00:37:06
◼
►
ways that they shut down it enormous major thoroughfares in philly which
[TS]
00:37:12
◼
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created this
[TS]
00:37:12
◼
►
it was awesome it but it's that you had these like 6-7 lane streets that were
[TS]
00:37:18
◼
►
entirely free of cars not even like parked cars
[TS]
00:37:21
◼
►
it was great but the problem for me is I've got so many Twitter followers that
[TS]
00:37:25
◼
►
I easily overflow the limits of periscope even you know just for
[TS]
00:37:29
◼
►
something like that huh
[TS]
00:37:33
◼
►
did you uh did you recently joined snapchat I did that was me that was you
[TS]
00:37:39
◼
►
yeah okay I was like that's weird i could we do you understand snapchat now
[TS]
00:37:44
◼
►
know and someone was was in this I'm not that old but I sound like it i mean it's
[TS]
00:37:49
◼
►
someone was throwing it to me the other day and i have not i don't think i've
[TS]
00:37:54
◼
►
ever posted anything because I just don't really know what to post or or how
[TS]
00:37:58
◼
►
I guess that the whole idea is that it's kind of very raw uncut like a
[TS]
00:38:03
◼
►
spur-of-the-moment life through your eyes
[TS]
00:38:06
◼
►
whereas i'm more of a retouch edit like frame the perfect since you know i i'd
[TS]
00:38:12
◼
►
say more of an Instagram person than a snapchat person II me 2i my
[TS]
00:38:17
◼
►
understanding of snapchat previously was that it was like texting service where
[TS]
00:38:24
◼
►
everything was ephemeral and nothing gets saved and everybody la you can send
[TS]
00:38:28
◼
►
dick pics but people did use it for that but then like teenagers could use it and
[TS]
00:38:32
◼
►
send like love notes to each other and know that there are going to be
[TS]
00:38:36
◼
►
disappeared by the next day and that I that made sense to me and I felt like I
[TS]
00:38:40
◼
►
understand what this product does and i'm not a teenager anymore I've no I
[TS]
00:38:45
◼
►
have no need for it so I didn't know it but then I've heard now it's more like a
[TS]
00:38:48
◼
►
social network and I see what turned me on to it was doing it you know Gary
[TS]
00:38:51
◼
►
Vaynerchuk is yes I gary vaynerchuk has been raving about it lately and he's
[TS]
00:38:58
◼
►
been saying that he hasn't been this excited about something since Twitter
[TS]
00:39:01
◼
►
circuit 2007 and he really what I do remember that's my first met Gary and
[TS]
00:39:06
◼
►
gary was huge on twitter and like 2006-2007 said this thing is going to
[TS]
00:39:10
◼
►
blow up it's going to be huge everybody's going to be on Twitter and
[TS]
00:39:13
◼
►
he was right and so that him saying that this is how he feels about snapchat made
[TS]
00:39:18
◼
►
me think why I should sign up for this and see if I can figure it out and so I
[TS]
00:39:22
◼
►
did and there's a part of the process where it's like to want to state you
[TS]
00:39:25
◼
►
know notified you know here's people you know if from your address book you want
[TS]
00:39:31
◼
►
to follow them and I did and you're you're not the first person who's asked
[TS]
00:39:34
◼
►
is this really you look because it i guess it seems a little surprising that
[TS]
00:39:38
◼
►
i would sign up for snapchat well is also under the name of the site and not
[TS]
00:39:42
◼
►
as is your name
[TS]
00:39:44
◼
►
oh right and that was because you might be a little late to get the Gruber name
[TS]
00:39:50
◼
►
yeah I couldn't get I couldn't get it and all the variations on grouper
[TS]
00:39:54
◼
►
weren't there and i also had the at the notion that if i do if it does become a
[TS]
00:40:00
◼
►
maybe it would be more of a you know daring fireball thing that a personal
[TS]
00:40:03
◼
►
yeah actually would not be a you know it's kind of like a periscope in the
[TS]
00:40:08
◼
►
same way it's like here's a kind of unedited view of of life maybe you know
[TS]
00:40:14
◼
►
from the WWDC press bullpen right like that yeah that's cool but I didn't even
[TS]
00:40:20
◼
►
get the right during fireball name either right oh really i think i was
[TS]
00:40:23
◼
►
like i had to put like a dash in it or something I don't know because some I
[TS]
00:40:26
◼
►
don't know who the shitbag is but some some jerk has daring fireball like that
[TS]
00:40:32
◼
►
can't possibly be legit however it is stolen from me
[TS]
00:40:35
◼
►
well did you see on peach reviews peach yet
[TS]
00:40:39
◼
►
yeah i'm on the peach i'm on the peach someone has a casey johnson got p marker
[TS]
00:40:47
◼
►
so she's
[TS]
00:40:49
◼
►
picking it up is she really yeah she masquerading as as i don't know i think
[TS]
00:40:58
◼
►
just the username and I actually haven't looked at it in a couple days so the
[TS]
00:41:03
◼
►
peach is really weird
[TS]
00:41:05
◼
►
I think I mean I'll so what happened it for anybody who missed this and trust me
[TS]
00:41:09
◼
►
if you did you'd you're not really missing anything
[TS]
00:41:12
◼
►
it was like over the weekend i think it was over the weekend but it within the
[TS]
00:41:15
◼
►
last few days
[TS]
00:41:16
◼
►
all of a sudden everybody on twitter is talking about a new social network
[TS]
00:41:18
◼
►
called peach and in fact the fact that i just tried to get my name on snapchat
[TS]
00:41:23
◼
►
couldn't I i do have this habit where if I hear the new social network even if I
[TS]
00:41:27
◼
►
think there's a very low chance i want to do it I'll quick sign up to try to
[TS]
00:41:30
◼
►
get a username that I want and so I signed up for this peach and it's as
[TS]
00:41:34
◼
►
best as i can figure out it
[TS]
00:41:37
◼
►
number one I don't quite get it but as best as i can figure out is it sort of
[TS]
00:41:40
◼
►
like Twitter except that instead of getting a timeline you have to go to
[TS]
00:41:45
◼
►
each single prayer every single person you follow individually to see what
[TS]
00:41:48
◼
►
they're up to and it it's a poor idea for social network implemented in a very
[TS]
00:41:56
◼
►
poorly made and designed app like the buttons and the app don't you you tap
[TS]
00:42:01
◼
►
the button inning
[TS]
00:42:02
◼
►
there's no visual indication that you've tapped it there's no highlight and and
[TS]
00:42:06
◼
►
to make it even worse nothing happens sometimes
[TS]
00:42:09
◼
►
and then you tap it again and it's gone because whatever it is that you tap to
[TS]
00:42:14
◼
►
do before it took three seconds and then it no one away to very very shitty app
[TS]
00:42:18
◼
►
if I interesting it's I mean it's actually you know as Twitter starts to
[TS]
00:42:26
◼
►
add more don't know what you'd call them formats or something media types to
[TS]
00:42:31
◼
►
Twitter this is kind of like you know going a giant leap ahead of that because
[TS]
00:42:35
◼
►
you can make drawings you can make animations you can add photos but the
[TS]
00:42:42
◼
►
timeline is weird it's not a timeline of post-its a timeline of people so what
[TS]
00:42:48
◼
►
one of the more interesting analysis i read basically said you know you're
[TS]
00:42:54
◼
►
you're incentivized to just post as much as possible because then you'll always
[TS]
00:42:58
◼
►
be at the top of the timeline
[TS]
00:43:00
◼
►
and you know you won't be spamming people in the sense that CC 20 of your
[TS]
00:43:04
◼
►
posts in a row but you know you'll always be the person at the top of the
[TS]
00:43:08
◼
►
timeline and that might get annoying
[TS]
00:43:10
◼
►
I don't know it's a I don't think it's we're talking about much more now let's
[TS]
00:43:16
◼
►
not as with any new social network most of the posts on that most but many of
[TS]
00:43:20
◼
►
the posts are about peach itself
[TS]
00:43:22
◼
►
yeah so we'll see if it gets beyond that it what's interesting about it is that
[TS]
00:43:26
◼
►
it's made by one of the people who made it is the guy who made vine so that's
[TS]
00:43:33
◼
►
the only reason it got any kind of traction because vine is a real thing
[TS]
00:43:36
◼
►
and there's real people who were you know using it happily and it's it you
[TS]
00:43:41
◼
►
know but i don't think this is a fine all right unless it they somehow
[TS]
00:43:44
◼
►
quote-unquote pivot invent a new something new that you can do with this
[TS]
00:43:48
◼
►
that's different than what this is
[TS]
00:43:50
◼
►
yeah it's always dangerous to say like there's been too many of there's been
[TS]
00:43:54
◼
►
too many social networks because i'm sure someone said they were too many
[TS]
00:43:57
◼
►
search engines right before Google came out so you know who knows what's
[TS]
00:44:03
◼
►
actually going to happen but it seems like this is one of those things where
[TS]
00:44:06
◼
►
it's just not different enough to really justify putting too much time and effort
[TS]
00:44:12
◼
►
into maybe it'll catch on amongst um like path was huge in singapore
[TS]
00:44:19
◼
►
something or oh yeah
[TS]
00:44:20
◼
►
indonesia or wherever around but yeah we'll start talking about peach now
[TS]
00:44:28
◼
►
yeah alright well we'll stop talking about peach and start talking about our
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next sponsor and it's our good friends at Squarespace you guys r square space
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it's really really easy and it is so far beyond any kind of website even if
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you're thinking that you're going to have to design our program from scratch
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first with squarespace even if you can think of it as a prototype and I for a
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Squarespace i was actually looking around with it recently I actually
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because i thought you know these guys sponsored the show all the time and I
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haven't looked at it in a while and i know they had a major new version last
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weekend so i tried building just not just spent like an hour building like a
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the way Squarespace used to be just how much more it feels like you're working
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one more thing I want to say about ces now now having been twice all the
[TS]
00:46:57
◼
►
internet you know this was a different apple that back then was it was smaller
[TS]
00:47:00
◼
►
and you know still I would say maybe a little more mysterious but all the
[TS]
00:47:06
◼
►
so-called rumors and like calls for Apple to headline CES and all that stuff
[TS]
00:47:12
◼
►
that that was just completely idiotic like even more even now more in
[TS]
00:47:17
◼
►
hindsight than it then it seemed that like there's no way that Apple is going
[TS]
00:47:20
◼
►
to waste their time trying to
[TS]
00:47:23
◼
►
like have any sort of signal among the noise at CES there's absolutely no
[TS]
00:47:28
◼
►
reason for do for them to do that and just like even halfway believing that
[TS]
00:47:33
◼
►
that that could have happened back then just seems completely foolish now i miss
[TS]
00:47:38
◼
►
macworld and I really do in its heyday was great and it was for exactly what
[TS]
00:47:43
◼
►
you said though it's that it was away the main reason was just the fact that
[TS]
00:47:47
◼
►
everybody who covered APPL or worked in apple related things was all in san
[TS]
00:47:53
◼
►
francisco at the exact same time which is great and then secondarily it was
[TS]
00:47:57
◼
►
great it was actually great so every year and I'd find one or two things two
[TS]
00:48:01
◼
►
new companies of making products that it you know I didn't know otherwise and
[TS]
00:48:06
◼
►
even in the Internet era when that became a lot easier to find you know
[TS]
00:48:11
◼
►
little companies that are from oddball locations around the world it's still
[TS]
00:48:16
◼
►
always happen but I totally understand why apple pulled the plug on their
[TS]
00:48:20
◼
►
involvement in Macworld which was way less involved than would have been if
[TS]
00:48:24
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they gone to CES right because macworld especially San Francisco one which was
[TS]
00:48:28
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the last show was local to them and it the entire show revolved around their
[TS]
00:48:34
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ecosystem but I totally understand why they got away from it
[TS]
00:48:38
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yeah i mean i wouldn't be surprised if like someone took a meeting with someone
[TS]
00:48:43
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from cea or whatever and and you know heard them out but there's just no you
[TS]
00:48:48
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know Apple can command as much attention as it as it gets on its own why would it
[TS]
00:48:54
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why would participate in something that's going to be super noisy and not
[TS]
00:48:59
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focused
[TS]
00:49:00
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yeah and it in the thing and the Apple i think actually was upfront about this i
[TS]
00:49:04
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don't i think when they stopped the day you know publicly said we're not does
[TS]
00:49:08
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the last time we're going to do a macworld keynote it was the year that
[TS]
00:49:14
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it was the year when Steve Jobs fell ill again and ended up going on a medical
[TS]
00:49:20
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leave and he you know he did they announce like his medical leave
[TS]
00:49:24
◼
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I forget it was like december january but they said that you know very messily
[TS]
00:49:31
◼
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here is always have it was handled very poorly probably because of steve you
[TS]
00:49:36
◼
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know that it was his desire for pot for privacy was in direct conflict with the
[TS]
00:49:42
◼
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companies need to you know they they they were giving a keynote at macworld
[TS]
00:49:47
◼
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expo in early January and be you know that they have certain public
[TS]
00:49:50
◼
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obligations regarding the executive leadership it was all very messy
[TS]
00:49:56
◼
►
although you know obviously it's moot point now but i remember though that the
[TS]
00:50:00
◼
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$YEAR it was announced that eh Phil Schiller will be giving the keynote at
[TS]
00:50:04
◼
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macworld next month and be this will be the last keynote apple ever gives in
[TS]
00:50:08
◼
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Macworld Expo so they announced that before the macworld expo which was in
[TS]
00:50:14
◼
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some some people took that as sort of a dick move because it kind of did cast a
[TS]
00:50:18
◼
►
few nariyal feel to the whole thing because I gave me I mean they were you
[TS]
00:50:24
◼
►
know they still had at least two more mad world after that but everybody knew
[TS]
00:50:27
◼
►
at this point that it was going to be a a greatly diminished back world without
[TS]
00:50:31
◼
►
Apple but on the other hand I kind of think I don't know that it was a dick
[TS]
00:50:35
◼
►
pronouncing that because i think it gave everybody a chance to soak it up and it
[TS]
00:50:39
◼
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may be gave people who were like a maybe i'll go maybe I'll not go it it
[TS]
00:50:42
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motivated them to ya better go
[TS]
00:50:44
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yeah that was the only year I went and it was it was really cool to be able to
[TS]
00:50:49
◼
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see it once anything else from CES I don't think so I mean you know i could
[TS]
00:50:59
◼
►
go on forever it was was really interesting
[TS]
00:51:02
◼
►
it was fun it was exhausting and next year you're coming so we can so someone
[TS]
00:51:08
◼
►
will play blackjack with me i can't really complain about how do you not
[TS]
00:51:12
◼
►
find time for because it would be like 2am and I hadn't you know it's like I
[TS]
00:51:16
◼
►
guess I should go to sleep see you because the people are you know the
[TS]
00:51:21
◼
►
people i was with the either just want to keep drinking or
[TS]
00:51:25
◼
►
I don't know I actually don't know and there's like some I think it started
[TS]
00:51:28
◼
►
ironically but there's like a lot of the tech writers play Pai Gow Poker which I
[TS]
00:51:34
◼
►
also didn't get to play we were going to and then I got separated from that group
[TS]
00:51:38
◼
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and I don't know if they ever did or not but anyway next year see that I I'm
[TS]
00:51:44
◼
►
starting to get a sense of how this could happen and why it's inexplicable
[TS]
00:51:48
◼
►
to me how you can have like a four-day trip to vegas and not into playing
[TS]
00:51:51
◼
►
blackjack and it sounds to me look and i know you i think this is probably too it
[TS]
00:51:55
◼
►
seems to me that the difference is that you have at least a lick of common sense
[TS]
00:51:59
◼
►
i don't know how i don't know i was ya know I i would have liked to it in like
[TS]
00:52:09
◼
►
last year's psychologist at the last night and then the last night it was
[TS]
00:52:12
◼
►
like 1am and I I couldn't even put a hundred bucks on the cubs to win the
[TS]
00:52:16
◼
►
World Series last year because I ran out of time before the sportsbook close
[TS]
00:52:20
◼
►
oh did you get in this year no are they not taken not taken yet i don't know i'm
[TS]
00:52:25
◼
►
sure they're taking them it's there i don't know i guess they probably could
[TS]
00:52:29
◼
►
win this year I didn't think they were gonna when I didn't think they were
[TS]
00:52:33
◼
►
going to be even close last year so how they're going to be I did together gonna
[TS]
00:52:36
◼
►
be good they can be good
[TS]
00:52:37
◼
►
are they gonna be the National League favorites maybe could be because it's
[TS]
00:52:42
◼
►
going to the Cardinals around worse Cardinals have gotten more and the Mets
[TS]
00:52:45
◼
►
come on the Mets that was a fluke have gotten worse already the Mets have
[TS]
00:52:48
◼
►
already lost lost talent and I don't think they're going to science espetus
[TS]
00:52:52
◼
►
they did they mention have pitching and that's it and then the Dodgers are in
[TS]
00:52:56
◼
►
turmoil right and nobody did I don't think anybody knows what's gonna happen
[TS]
00:53:00
◼
►
with the doctors and they're probably worse because they they lost
[TS]
00:53:02
◼
►
what's-his-name the picture
[TS]
00:53:04
◼
►
oh what's his name the guy who used to be on the Royals yeah i forgot
[TS]
00:53:13
◼
►
so anyway I think your cubbies are going to be I don't think you're going to get
[TS]
00:53:16
◼
►
good odds just keep your hair when yeah that's the thing
[TS]
00:53:19
◼
►
this could be the year where you get your you get your Cubs win the world
[TS]
00:53:21
◼
►
series ticket and you end up winning like six hundred dollars on a hundred
[TS]
00:53:24
◼
►
dollar bet not even i think it's like $MONEY for 21 or something i don't know
[TS]
00:53:28
◼
►
i think last year with 721 that's how is that right
[TS]
00:53:32
◼
►
it seems like even when the Cubs have talent the Cubs oughta have to be like
[TS]
00:53:36
◼
►
yeah they're the cops they're gonna be like a there the Cubs discount on that
[TS]
00:53:39
◼
►
you have ticket in the same way with with the Yankees that even when the
[TS]
00:53:43
◼
►
Yankees that look like they're not a good but you know they don't really have
[TS]
00:53:46
◼
►
it that the yankees still should only be like a 2-1 every year even if they have
[TS]
00:53:50
◼
►
no chance because I Yankees like you shouldn't really you should not be able
[TS]
00:53:56
◼
►
to make a lot of money by betting on the Yankees 2-1 on series now that's
[TS]
00:53:59
◼
►
practically cheating right that's why I love him that's like betting on the
[TS]
00:54:07
◼
►
house but basically yeah so anyway basic just a bit you go that you go to see as
[TS]
00:54:13
◼
►
you go two days earlier so because you want to hit these the keynotes and that
[TS]
00:54:17
◼
►
the announcements and then you book two days a week you stayed there for two
[TS]
00:54:21
◼
►
days to do the show for can you do the whole show floor in two days you'll
[TS]
00:54:25
◼
►
never get you'll never do the whole thing you have to pick and choose we
[TS]
00:54:29
◼
►
even we didn't get to talking about more than one tiny portion of it there's the
[TS]
00:54:34
◼
►
whole convention center which is like the North Central and South halls each
[TS]
00:54:38
◼
►
of which have multiple zones and then there's the Westgate to which is
[TS]
00:54:44
◼
►
something else I don't even know i have anything go to the Westgate don't know
[TS]
00:54:47
◼
►
that that's something else like next door
[TS]
00:54:50
◼
►
I've seen the sign I don't even know what it is though is it like a hotel
[TS]
00:54:56
◼
►
yeah I think it's kind of a junkie casino hotel with its own convention
[TS]
00:54:59
◼
►
center and part of CES is it there
[TS]
00:55:02
◼
►
yeah i think it's so crazy i got it i'm going next year
[TS]
00:55:07
◼
►
yeah you should I should look let's do it all right stay somewhere nice though
[TS]
00:55:12
◼
►
well I only state the win oh wow all right there might be a price to present
[TS]
00:55:18
◼
►
my feet yeah when I looked well when I looked at it had sold out but I think
[TS]
00:55:22
◼
►
before that it lets I will figure out how to do this early so
[TS]
00:55:27
◼
►
we don't get screwed but yeah I wonder what that I know that they sell i know
[TS]
00:55:31
◼
►
that the wynn and encore sellout because they're a they're the best place on the
[TS]
00:55:35
◼
►
strip and B it's at
[TS]
00:55:37
◼
►
I don't well there's no ideal location but it's about as close to ideal as you
[TS]
00:55:41
◼
►
can get because it's right across the street from the venetian and palazzo
[TS]
00:55:47
◼
►
which is the way that the the that's the casino that's connected to the sands
[TS]
00:55:51
◼
►
convention center
[TS]
00:55:52
◼
►
yes it's so my guess is that the the you know the first like my hotels the first
[TS]
00:55:58
◼
►
night with was fifty dollars in the second the third and fourth minus 4 350
[TS]
00:56:03
◼
►
dollars
[TS]
00:56:04
◼
►
wow yeah it's like a huge like just the difference between pre CES and we're
[TS]
00:56:11
◼
►
doing nothing where did you stay
[TS]
00:56:13
◼
►
well I stayed ahead to stay at the flamingo oh that's right you told me
[TS]
00:56:16
◼
►
that you didn't tell me that right and the filming go ahead . not that great
[TS]
00:56:20
◼
►
although not a good location
[TS]
00:56:22
◼
►
it's yeah it was well located it's on the monorail so that was fine it was
[TS]
00:56:26
◼
►
fine i mean i stayed in the new tower and it was fine but hey maybe next year
[TS]
00:56:32
◼
►
by CS will have the the Las Vegas city notes so you'll know where to where to
[TS]
00:56:37
◼
►
actually hang out
[TS]
00:56:39
◼
►
yeah I know where to hang out now you don't want to hang it like I actually
[TS]
00:56:43
◼
►
probably right the Las Vegas city nuts
[TS]
00:56:44
◼
►
did you see I relaunched it now when you've been offline a lot lately yeah if
[TS]
00:56:49
◼
►
you go to City notes that co you know as I think I you know talked about on the
[TS]
00:56:55
◼
►
show before but yet the idea was that I was making these apps where if you go if
[TS]
00:57:00
◼
►
you're traveling to a city and you just want a short list of like the cool stuff
[TS]
00:57:04
◼
►
for your cool friend would take you and not the lame touristy stuff or like you
[TS]
00:57:10
◼
►
know fancy silly stuff that i would just have this list for you and and I did a
[TS]
00:57:17
◼
►
new york one and had a San Francisco one and these were iphone apps that i was
[TS]
00:57:20
◼
►
selling in the app store and it was you know long story short it was cumbersome
[TS]
00:57:26
◼
►
to make and an update these apps as apps and it was also not really you know the
[TS]
00:57:34
◼
►
paid app model has as you know is not a great business model for for certain
[TS]
00:57:39
◼
►
types of
[TS]
00:57:40
◼
►
of content so it's a website now it's city notes . co i have a Tokyo and Paris
[TS]
00:57:45
◼
►
list up there and if you're going to those cities check them out and i'm
[TS]
00:57:49
◼
►
working on new york next and then probably los angeles and you know it's
[TS]
00:57:55
◼
►
working as a website it's like free for me to update and keep current and we'll
[TS]
00:58:01
◼
►
see what happens but interesting that's my little side project yeah I'm you know
[TS]
00:58:05
◼
►
we'll see what we'll see what happens with it but I just relaunched about a
[TS]
00:58:10
◼
►
month ago and so far so good
[TS]
00:58:13
◼
►
excellent what else is going on about this is one time with this el chapo haha
[TS]
00:58:20
◼
►
did I ever read the sean penn thing yet did you
[TS]
00:58:24
◼
►
I did but I didn't finish it and it's it's like the stupidest thing that I
[TS]
00:58:28
◼
►
couldn't remember which device i was reading it on so I haven't gotten back
[TS]
00:58:32
◼
►
to it but i loved it i thought it was fantastic i really really liked it i'm
[TS]
00:58:37
◼
►
going to read it and I think I think it's one of the best pieces written by a
[TS]
00:58:41
◼
►
non writer and there's it's funny it seems like maybe Rolling Stone aye i'm
[TS]
00:58:46
◼
►
not sure what the backstory is and I don't know how much of this is if it's
[TS]
00:58:49
◼
►
out there and I just don't know because I didn't finish the article yet like he
[TS]
00:58:52
◼
►
visited him in October and the articles coming out now but it it seems like
[TS]
00:58:56
◼
►
maybe they felt like their hand was pressed when the authorities took out
[TS]
00:58:59
◼
►
Chapo back into custody and they wanted to publish it but it it's clearly a very
[TS]
00:59:04
◼
►
light editing pass it you know in terms of it it doesn't read like your typical
[TS]
00:59:12
◼
►
Rolling Stone feature it a lot of Sean Penn's personality is is infused in the
[TS]
00:59:19
◼
►
pros and I think he did a hell of a job there's is certain touches that as a
[TS]
00:59:23
◼
►
writer like felt like a little over-the-top like it's a little awkward
[TS]
00:59:31
◼
►
in certain phrasing but for the most part though I really enjoy the visceral
[TS]
00:59:35
◼
►
nature nature of the pros I i think is just a tremendous read and it's just
[TS]
00:59:40
◼
►
such a crazy idea you know it i I'm kind of fascinated by sean penn you know he
[TS]
00:59:46
◼
►
just does things that other people that just never occurs of to do right
[TS]
00:59:50
◼
►
remember like with the
[TS]
00:59:52
◼
►
with the hurricane and in New Orleans was that hurricane what was it called
[TS]
00:59:57
◼
►
Katrina Katrina there's like
[TS]
00:59:57
◼
►
Katrina Katrina there's like
[TS]
01:00:00
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►
there's Sean Penn like in a rowboat saving people you know getting off the
[TS]
01:00:05
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►
roofs you know like what the hell Sean Penn doing on a rowboat into New Orleans
[TS]
01:00:09
◼
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he added
[TS]
01:00:10
◼
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how did he get there how do you get to a flooded city if you don't live there
[TS]
01:00:14
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►
you know what song he's he just went and you know at what a crazy idea to have is
[TS]
01:00:19
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►
I'm gonna go meet the most notorious drug kingpin in the world today and
[TS]
01:00:23
◼
►
write a story about it
[TS]
01:00:25
◼
►
yeah and a lot of the criticism has been that that El Chapo chapel or chop oh
[TS]
01:00:32
◼
►
well I guess in in in Spanish and say Chapo el trapo that he was given
[TS]
01:00:37
◼
►
editorial control essentially that he was allowed to you know make changes or
[TS]
01:00:44
◼
►
at least reject the it was submitted it with the agreement was a wolf will
[TS]
01:00:49
◼
►
submit to you you know a manuscript if you have objections we will take your
[TS]
01:00:53
◼
►
objections right so a lot of people are saying and and whatever they said that
[TS]
01:00:58
◼
►
he didn't make any changes or something like yeah but a lot of people are
[TS]
01:01:01
◼
►
criticizing that as you know essentially a you know a press release from El Chapo
[TS]
01:01:07
◼
►
written by sean penn submitted to rolling stone which is hit you know
[TS]
01:01:12
◼
►
historically a journalistic organization and they just go and run it i don't know
[TS]
01:01:19
◼
►
i think it's i think it's that's kind of the time we're in for a lot of places
[TS]
01:01:23
◼
►
are just publishing directly on medium and or on their websites or something
[TS]
01:01:28
◼
►
like that if you look at elon musk e does the same thing so I don't you know
[TS]
01:01:33
◼
►
I it would be a tough call for the editor of rolling stone
[TS]
01:01:36
◼
►
I think that if I was a publisher Rolling Stone I'd be very very excited
[TS]
01:01:40
◼
►
about this because it's certainly gotten them a lot of attention and pray a lot
[TS]
01:01:44
◼
►
of web traffic and but it's interesting like to what do you do you allow that
[TS]
01:01:49
◼
►
what are you here's my take my eye and this would really what I wanted to talk
[TS]
01:01:52
◼
►
about it was the debt journalistic and I don't have a problem with it because
[TS]
01:01:56
◼
►
right up front that's how the article starts is in init Alex like it's an
[TS]
01:02:02
◼
►
editor's note it explains that situation entirely which is that part of the deal
[TS]
01:02:07
◼
►
for this entire thing before it started was an agreement that the article would
[TS]
01:02:11
◼
►
be submitted to a chop those people
[TS]
01:02:13
◼
►
for their approval and it was and they didn't make any changes and so to me
[TS]
01:02:18
◼
►
that the the what makes it okay is the fact that they disclose that been very
[TS]
01:02:24
◼
►
clear language right up front and that they secure like so the our Chapel
[TS]
01:02:27
◼
►
people said we want to approve the article and I think the Rolling Stone
[TS]
01:02:30
◼
►
people said okay we'll do it but we're going we were going to explain what was
[TS]
01:02:35
◼
►
approved
[TS]
01:02:36
◼
►
you know we're gonna explain that this deal was in place and we're going to say
[TS]
01:02:41
◼
►
whether or not you changed anything
[TS]
01:02:43
◼
►
and so to me obviously that's less than ideal would be great if the El Chapo
[TS]
01:02:47
◼
►
people just said you can write whatever you want but obviously they weren't
[TS]
01:02:51
◼
►
gonna let that happen and so yeah I the world is a better place that this
[TS]
01:02:55
◼
►
article exist then if it didn't like it when it's not like they had the option
[TS]
01:02:59
◼
►
to do it without that arrangement right fact that it was disclosed to me makes
[TS]
01:03:05
◼
►
it acceptable like I think the people who are objecting to it on a pc like
[TS]
01:03:09
◼
►
it's feeling a certain purity test are being a lot of them are jealous that
[TS]
01:03:14
◼
►
they have story i think yeah i mean the truth about this there are no rules it's
[TS]
01:03:19
◼
►
not like they're yeah or something that says that you know every every article
[TS]
01:03:23
◼
►
published anywhere must be vetted by something or something like that I mean
[TS]
01:03:28
◼
►
so whatever I if if you're jealous that your publication did not get the scoop
[TS]
01:03:34
◼
►
on El Chapo from sean penn I guess that sucks but it is interesting i think it's
[TS]
01:03:41
◼
►
i think it's cool I i want to read it i saved it
[TS]
01:03:44
◼
►
i'm going to read it I i like the idea of getting kinda raw writing from
[TS]
01:03:51
◼
►
non-traditional writers I think that's really that is that to me is exactly
[TS]
01:03:55
◼
►
what it feels like
[TS]
01:03:56
◼
►
and in terms of well the the argument that this could just be a press release
[TS]
01:04:01
◼
►
from El Chapo obviously that's a risk I mean but you just read the article with
[TS]
01:04:06
◼
►
an open mind and judge for yourself and I having read most of the article would
[TS]
01:04:10
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say it's definitely not the case it doesn't whitewash over anything it's
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01:04:13
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really just sort of a first-person narrative you are there this is what
[TS]
01:04:16
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it's like to try to get to this guy story at to me it was just a good read
[TS]
01:04:22
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but I think you have to keep an open mind on something like that
[TS]
01:04:25
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and i also think that there's a certain sense sanctimonious among the
[TS]
01:04:29
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professional journalists who like object to this on you know this is not the way
[TS]
01:04:35
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it's done by serious publications uh is that those publications that have those
[TS]
01:04:40
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rules like if I'm sure a lot of them don't really do have it codified you
[TS]
01:04:44
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know like 60 minutes does not allow the sources of us show to see it before it
[TS]
01:04:51
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airs that's fine that's you know that find have rules like that and it
[TS]
01:04:56
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certainly does protect you from you know accusations that your your currying
[TS]
01:05:00
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favor with your subjects or something but those publications obviously they
[TS]
01:05:04
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miss out on an awful lot of stuff that they're that these you know these rules
[TS]
01:05:07
◼
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and traditions keep them from from getting exactly and self-publishing you
[TS]
01:05:14
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said like how much stuff is going on medium these days the the world where a
[TS]
01:05:20
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you know a in the old days they they could they could take a stance like that
[TS]
01:05:25
◼
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and the only people who can really get a story out we're the ones who owned a
[TS]
01:05:29
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printing press and had you know million or two million circulation newspaper
[TS]
01:05:33
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magazine
[TS]
01:05:34
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ah you don't need that anymore right so anybody can anybody can handle two or
[TS]
01:05:39
◼
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three million people reading their site if they publish it on wordpress or
[TS]
01:05:43
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medium or something like that and so they don't control you know they don't
[TS]
01:05:47
◼
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control the means of distribution anymore and they're sort of holding on
[TS]
01:05:52
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LOL you know get me to the fainting couch they let the subject pre-approved
[TS]
01:05:57
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the story it is this is you know I've got the vapors somebody get the smelling
[TS]
01:06:01
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salts ridiculous
[TS]
01:06:03
◼
►
yes fascinating dave winer actually wrote a good essay about this many many
[TS]
01:06:08
◼
►
of these same points and and i totally agree I mean listen I went to you know
[TS]
01:06:13
◼
►
core unquote professional journalism school I mean that's what my undergrad
[TS]
01:06:17
◼
►
college was and i don't care i think it's great that that people can
[TS]
01:06:21
◼
►
self-publish now there's there's certain things that I won't do because that's
[TS]
01:06:27
◼
►
the job i have but that's fine i'd you know as a I think the best thing you can
[TS]
01:06:31
◼
►
do is be very clear about what happened and what didn't happen it seems like
[TS]
01:06:35
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that's what they did here so i right I feel I've and I a dave winer has been
[TS]
01:06:41
◼
►
thinking about these things since the invention of the web in the nineties and
[TS]
01:06:46
◼
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he's a really adding is really interesting perspective on this stuff
[TS]
01:06:51
◼
►
and I think it is to make a long story short I think that institutional
[TS]
01:06:59
◼
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journalism the capital j journalism like you said like going to actual journalism
[TS]
01:07:04
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school and working at it at a long-standing you know traditional
[TS]
01:07:09
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publication they've made things more complicated than it really is they've
[TS]
01:07:13
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set up this this like a written and or unwritten list of rules of how it's done
[TS]
01:07:18
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whereas the truth of it is it lowercase J journalism that anybody can can
[TS]
01:07:23
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conduct is to me it's fundamentally about getting the truth out there
[TS]
01:07:29
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whether it's true facts or whether it's like in a lot of my writing truly what I
[TS]
01:07:36
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believe and think my opinion my honest opinion about how things are going
[TS]
01:07:40
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that's what it's all about and that's it and so part of the truth could be like
[TS]
01:07:44
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writing a disclaimer that says the subject of this story had the following
[TS]
01:07:48
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demands and that's the truth the truth is we had this arrangement and now you
[TS]
01:07:53
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know it
[TS]
01:07:54
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yeah let's be let's be honest like the people with all the rules get stuff
[TS]
01:07:58
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►
wrong all the time too so exactly it's not like they lead to perfection right
[TS]
01:08:04
◼
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and you know and like I love the New York Times New York Times is one of my
[TS]
01:08:07
◼
►
favorite newspapers are it is my favourite newspaper and its source that
[TS]
01:08:11
◼
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i read i read something in the new york times L every single day but you know
[TS]
01:08:16
◼
►
and they they exemplify that sort of traditional journalism and they've had
[TS]
01:08:20
◼
►
some absolutely terrible things in the last few decades you know with the judy
[TS]
01:08:24
◼
►
miller her reporting on the lead up to the Iraq war and it was the guy they had
[TS]
01:08:31
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the serial fabulous know Jason hmm well whatever his name is GN you know Jason
[TS]
01:08:39
◼
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Bourne now it was a jys on2 alright
[TS]
01:08:44
◼
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Jaison Blair yeah Jayson Blair so they had a reporter on the staff who it turns
[TS]
01:08:49
◼
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out had cereal e5
[TS]
01:08:51
◼
►
located news reports I you know again those rules are not a protection against
[TS]
01:08:58
◼
►
things like that going wrong and fundamentally in both of those cases the
[TS]
01:09:01
◼
►
problem is that it wasn't the truth that was coming out you know what judy miller
[TS]
01:09:05
◼
►
was reporting from our sources in Iraq was not the truth and that led to
[TS]
01:09:10
◼
►
disasters you know circumstances and the Jayson Blair stuff it didn't really
[TS]
01:09:14
◼
►
leave any kind of disaster like the iraq war but the whole problem is that it
[TS]
01:09:18
◼
►
greatly diluted the credibility of if it's printed in The New York Times it's
[TS]
01:09:23
◼
►
true and then all those david pogue reviews i misspoke
[TS]
01:09:32
◼
►
well he's I don't see his stuff anymore I don't it occurred i was just talking
[TS]
01:09:36
◼
►
to somebody about that that I know he's still doing this thing at yahoo i just
[TS]
01:09:41
◼
►
saw him recently 20 i saw in New York when I was getting the my ipad pro
[TS]
01:09:48
◼
►
review unit he must have been cool it must have been like right before me but
[TS]
01:09:53
◼
►
I was going into a hotel while he was coming out so he stand still . but i
[TS]
01:09:58
◼
►
don't know why i don't know what it is there's some kind of you know like tech
[TS]
01:10:04
◼
►
memes search optimization strategy that the Yahoo people aren't doing because i
[TS]
01:10:09
◼
►
don't see his stuff i don't know what I don't know why that is
[TS]
01:10:12
◼
►
yeah i don't know like now that mossberg is you know not at the journal and is
[TS]
01:10:17
◼
►
writing for rico and the virgin stuff i still see mossberg reviews you know they
[TS]
01:10:21
◼
►
think they percolate into my peripheral vision and it's like Oh open a tab or as
[TS]
01:10:27
◼
►
pokes don't I somehow wound up not without any David Polk tabs
[TS]
01:10:31
◼
►
yeah same maybe just needs to tweet more
[TS]
01:10:35
◼
►
yeah maybe i don't know let's take a blue one last break and thank our third
[TS]
01:10:41
◼
►
and final sponsor of the day and it's our good friends at igloo you guys know
[TS]
01:10:46
◼
►
what an Internet is internet is the thing that your company has for internal
[TS]
01:10:50
◼
►
communication that nobody ever looks at our updates
[TS]
01:10:54
◼
►
igloo is an internet you will actually like because it doesn't look like it was
[TS]
01:10:59
◼
►
designed in the late nineties because it wasn't it really just been designed in
[TS]
01:11:02
◼
►
the last few years and it is entirely designed around the modern concepts of
[TS]
01:11:08
◼
►
how the web should work everything it works on all devices it scales from your
[TS]
01:11:13
◼
►
phone to your tablet to desktop and it has features that are modern things like
[TS]
01:11:18
◼
►
a micro blog so you could have for your internal team a little twitter-like
[TS]
01:11:22
◼
►
thing that's private on your internet and you can do links and texts and stuff
[TS]
01:11:25
◼
►
like that but it's entirely private and it's hosted and you can access it
[TS]
01:11:30
◼
►
anywhere from your phone from the road anything like that all sorts of great
[TS]
01:11:36
◼
►
features you can have to do is you can manage the to do's calendars so many
[TS]
01:11:42
◼
►
features and all the features you would want for internal communication on an
[TS]
01:11:45
◼
►
intranet they've got it
[TS]
01:11:47
◼
►
so where do you go to find out more and get started with a free trial go to a
[TS]
01:11:51
◼
►
glue software.com / t TS the initials of the show
[TS]
01:11:58
◼
►
igloo software.com / tts and you'll get a free trial go check them out if you
[TS]
01:12:04
◼
►
have any kind of team needs an Internet
[TS]
01:12:08
◼
►
what else is on units i just want to say that's something I think of a lot is
[TS]
01:12:12
◼
►
like how to get your stuff noticed it's really interesting it's almost hard to
[TS]
01:12:18
◼
►
predict who's going to read your stuff and it's almost it really doesn't seem
[TS]
01:12:24
◼
►
to be correlated with how much traffic your site gets even or anything like
[TS]
01:12:28
◼
►
that it's it's almost a different kind of science and I don't know I don't know
[TS]
01:12:35
◼
►
there's way to crack it but it's something that fascinates me because
[TS]
01:12:37
◼
►
sometimes a lot of put a lot of effort into us an article and it just won't it
[TS]
01:12:42
◼
►
just won't get red or the other way around like you know something that that
[TS]
01:12:46
◼
►
surprisingly does really well and sometimes it's you know you get lucky
[TS]
01:12:50
◼
►
with a headline or a link here there but it really is weird how the web how the
[TS]
01:12:55
◼
►
web works with sharing and just getting red and who's reading it and and sharing
[TS]
01:13:01
◼
►
I i have found that and I don't know quite why
[TS]
01:13:07
◼
►
it would be but to me in my career in the time i've been writing daring
[TS]
01:13:12
◼
►
fireball one of the epochal moments was you know it it's like like a media or
[TS]
01:13:18
◼
►
that changed the no-hit and change the world forever was when Google shuttered
[TS]
01:13:23
◼
►
google reader google reader xi shuttering instantly cut into the
[TS]
01:13:30
◼
►
traffic that daring fireball get so if I measure i don't think it cut people i
[TS]
01:13:34
◼
►
honestly don't truly believe that the number of people who read my writing on
[TS]
01:13:38
◼
►
a regular basis if anything continue to slowly grow but in terms of like
[TS]
01:13:42
◼
►
pageviews it was instantaneous and permanent and the number of pages i get
[TS]
01:13:49
◼
►
$MONEY per month is way fewer than from before and it into it correlates are
[TS]
01:13:53
◼
►
exactly two weren't google pulled the plug on google reader and I think my my
[TS]
01:13:57
◼
►
guess is that I a lot of awful lot of people are reading fireball used google
[TS]
01:14:05
◼
►
reader and they subscribe to my site and whenever something new came up they
[TS]
01:14:09
◼
►
would go to do you know
[TS]
01:14:11
◼
►
click the thing that would go to my website and i would register you know my
[TS]
01:14:15
◼
►
analytics and whatever wood and register is that as a hit and anyway long story
[TS]
01:14:20
◼
►
short I don't get the traffic i used to in terms of page views I've never been
[TS]
01:14:23
◼
►
happier that I don't have pageview tied advertising because that would have been
[TS]
01:14:29
◼
►
it really would hit were absolutely would have hurt if I if the advertising
[TS]
01:14:33
◼
►
daring fireball was correlated to page views and I think it's just that people
[TS]
01:14:37
◼
►
now more a lot of people check it when it comes to mind instead of checking as
[TS]
01:14:41
◼
►
soon as you know getting a you know treating google reader is like a
[TS]
01:14:44
◼
►
notification system of grouper posted something I'm gonna check it out and out
[TS]
01:14:49
◼
►
the other thing is what i'm getting at is that pre google reader i was very
[TS]
01:14:53
◼
►
very good at guessing which longer pieces i wrote we're going to have legs
[TS]
01:14:57
◼
►
which ones weren't and now i don't i'm often i often think wow I think I hit a
[TS]
01:15:03
◼
►
home run with this one and it doesn't really like the next day might nothing
[TS]
01:15:06
◼
►
is you know there's no there's no bump and then like last month i wrote i spent
[TS]
01:15:12
◼
►
an awful lot of time really examining that the the battery case you know like
[TS]
01:15:16
◼
►
a native an awful i remember and all the lot of the feedback I got was
[TS]
01:15:20
◼
►
why in the world would you spend that much time on the battery case and the
[TS]
01:15:24
◼
►
explanation is I think it's because i could write about it i've found it
[TS]
01:15:28
◼
►
interesting I think there were some very interesting things about it and because
[TS]
01:15:32
◼
►
it's such a simple little thing you can fully consider it
[TS]
01:15:36
◼
►
there's you know that you can explore every little alley and crevice and and
[TS]
01:15:39
◼
►
notion about it but it was one of the most popular things are written in
[TS]
01:15:43
◼
►
months i think it I think it was more popular than like my iphone success
[TS]
01:15:46
◼
►
reveal if I just measure by page views and seemingly how many new people did it
[TS]
01:15:52
◼
►
and I wasn't even the first to write the article ID but somehow that one really
[TS]
01:15:56
◼
►
took off and I I'm I no longer can predict which ones are going to be
[TS]
01:15:59
◼
►
popular or not
[TS]
01:16:01
◼
►
speaking of that article I mean I still can't believe how controversial that
[TS]
01:16:06
◼
►
battery case was that was well I guess that's what I think that that's why the
[TS]
01:16:10
◼
►
article was popular i think there really are people really have strong feelings
[TS]
01:16:14
◼
►
about this i mean you'd also went very deep on it
[TS]
01:16:18
◼
►
yeah I i think what it is to is that there's an awful lot of people who have
[TS]
01:16:21
◼
►
this really hate this design they really do I mean they are it it is like you
[TS]
01:16:30
◼
►
know like bringing up Obama or something you know with your your you know your
[TS]
01:16:33
◼
►
crazy uncle who's a Donald Trump supporter you know it like it like turns
[TS]
01:16:38
◼
►
on like a red anger bulb in people's heads and their some people cannot even
[TS]
01:16:43
◼
►
talk about it in a you know you would you would think that an argument a
[TS]
01:16:47
◼
►
little debate if you will over the design of a phone battery pack would be
[TS]
01:16:52
◼
►
the sort of thing that would not make anybody angry but you would be wrong and
[TS]
01:16:56
◼
►
so the people who dislike it really really dislike it it it it seemly it
[TS]
01:17:02
◼
►
seems to offend them on an emotional level and on the other side I think what
[TS]
01:17:07
◼
►
may be made my article popular is that the people who either are intrigued by
[TS]
01:17:11
◼
►
it or actually like it they can't articulate what why it's it's again
[TS]
01:17:16
◼
►
almost like an emotional level they're like I don't know it doesn't look bad to
[TS]
01:17:19
◼
►
me but they're based I think that they've largely been quiet in public
[TS]
01:17:25
◼
►
because if you try to take that position anything other than this design is an
[TS]
01:17:31
◼
►
abject failure and maybe Johnny I've is me
[TS]
01:17:33
◼
►
no we are investigating whether he's losing his mind if you take any position
[TS]
01:17:37
◼
►
short of that the people who hate it will jump all over you and most people
[TS]
01:17:41
◼
►
don't want to be jumped all over I me I don't care I the only way to really
[TS]
01:17:48
◼
►
reminds me of her seeing the Boeing Dreamlifter oh I think so yeah just like
[TS]
01:17:53
◼
►
the the 747 that they just added a bubble on top of ya to make it big
[TS]
01:18:00
◼
►
enough so they could carry the fuselage of another of the Dreamliner yeah yeah
[TS]
01:18:05
◼
►
it's literally like putting a bump on the you know around around the 747 um
[TS]
01:18:11
◼
►
yeah I think it's funny at I it reminds me a lot of one a new logo comes out and
[TS]
01:18:18
◼
►
everyone just jumps on it the first day you know this is horrible i can't
[TS]
01:18:22
◼
►
believe it and then no one cares after that I think that you know and so much
[TS]
01:18:28
◼
►
of the design of that thing is how it works and i haven't used that I have a
[TS]
01:18:33
◼
►
6s plus so I don't need a battery pack but brag but actually I didn't need a
[TS]
01:18:41
◼
►
battery pack at CES oh that's interesting even with the plus yeah cuz
[TS]
01:18:45
◼
►
the the cell signals so bad there that i'm sure you're using way more battery
[TS]
01:18:49
◼
►
than you should be
[TS]
01:18:50
◼
►
and even when even I've never been in CS obviously we can repeat it again but
[TS]
01:18:55
◼
►
I've been to Vegas many times in vegas as Tory ously bad in my opinions
[TS]
01:18:58
◼
►
cellular coverage and in addition to the fact that the cellular coverage isn't
[TS]
01:19:02
◼
►
that great in general that's just talking like if you're outside your door
[TS]
01:19:05
◼
►
but did the buildings are these caverns and there you know the Faraday cage
[TS]
01:19:09
◼
►
aspect of you know what it's like when you're covered by you know three tons of
[TS]
01:19:15
◼
►
concrete and who even knows where there is you know if you're underground or
[TS]
01:19:18
◼
►
aboveground or where the hell you are you know it could definitely be a
[TS]
01:19:22
◼
►
challenge
[TS]
01:19:22
◼
►
yeah I got one of those anchor packs that's supposedly you know big enough to
[TS]
01:19:28
◼
►
charge a macbook and an ipad and a phone and all kinds of stuff so so i did use
[TS]
01:19:34
◼
►
that but anyway i don't remember i was but it's you know if if you need a
[TS]
01:19:39
◼
►
battery pack it seems like it actually works pretty well which is the whole
[TS]
01:19:42
◼
►
point so i don't know whatever I I really
[TS]
01:19:45
◼
►
I thought you went deliciously over-the-top on that post but as you say
[TS]
01:19:49
◼
►
like it's a small enough thing where you can really examine it from every angle
[TS]
01:19:54
◼
►
and why not like that's the whole point of being a self-publisher on the web is
[TS]
01:20:00
◼
►
you could do something ridiculous like that I the other thing I'm thinking
[TS]
01:20:04
◼
►
about and I've i went and bought a bunch of them but I've always been and I even
[TS]
01:20:09
◼
►
said that their own bottom of my article my solution to battery challenge days is
[TS]
01:20:14
◼
►
to have a little external battery pack but i like the little ones i like ones
[TS]
01:20:18
◼
►
that I can put my other pocket and it's almost like I don't even notice it's
[TS]
01:20:21
◼
►
there and movie makes a bunch of them but I don't honestly considered to be a
[TS]
01:20:26
◼
►
short coming in their company in that they make too many of them and that one
[TS]
01:20:30
◼
►
of the things I really really appreciate about Apple is that if you're going to
[TS]
01:20:33
◼
►
buy an Apple blank and insert any product there you can go in and decide
[TS]
01:20:38
◼
►
which one to get
[TS]
01:20:39
◼
►
and it's it's I'm an indecisive person and i will pause but i never have a
[TS]
01:20:43
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problem figuring out which macbook to buy I didn't even now at a moment when
[TS]
01:20:48
◼
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their lineup is in flux and they still have the old macbook airs in the new
[TS]
01:20:52
◼
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macbook one which is underpowered and the macbook pro I know which which mac i
[TS]
01:20:57
◼
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want to 30 i want the 13-inch macbook pro that's the best that's the one on 1i
[TS]
01:21:02
◼
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I find it so hard to figure out go to movie calm and figure out which battery
[TS]
01:21:06
◼
►
pack to buy because they not only have different sizes in terms of vital here's
[TS]
01:21:10
◼
►
the small one that will refill one iphone from you know throughout the day
[TS]
01:21:14
◼
►
or here's a really big one that you could use to charge an ipad and two
[TS]
01:21:18
◼
►
phones or something like that but they also have multiple designs they have
[TS]
01:21:22
◼
►
ones with built-in cables not with built-in cables ones you know that it
[TS]
01:21:27
◼
►
it's too much they should be the one to their the battery experts they should
[TS]
01:21:31
◼
►
design the right design and then I don't have to worry about it it's almost like
[TS]
01:21:35
◼
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when you go to mophie calm and pick a battery pack for the about you know
[TS]
01:21:40
◼
►
external battery pack
[TS]
01:21:42
◼
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you almost have to design it yourself because you've got to figure out do you
[TS]
01:21:46
◼
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want in integrated cables do you want to have separate cables do you care that
[TS]
01:21:50
◼
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it's that the battery is going to charge by micro USB but the phone is going to
[TS]
01:21:54
◼
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charge by lightning so you have to bring two different things at night
[TS]
01:21:58
◼
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does it do pass through charging meaning that at the end of the day when you put
[TS]
01:22:02
◼
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up next to your hotel bed do you have one thing to plug in and it'll you know
[TS]
01:22:06
◼
►
the battery will plug fill your phone first and then fill itself up or you
[TS]
01:22:10
◼
►
will have to plug two different things and because the battery pack won't
[TS]
01:22:13
◼
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charge the phone while it itself is being charged there they have all of
[TS]
01:22:17
◼
►
those options are there for you to consider from just one company and I
[TS]
01:22:21
◼
►
kind of it i find it maddening so I feel like I want to write an article and
[TS]
01:22:25
◼
►
figure out which which is the best one and effectively design it for movie this
[TS]
01:22:30
◼
►
is your version of Marcos headphone test
[TS]
01:22:32
◼
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yes exactly that's exactly it it's my version of Marcos headphone test his
[TS]
01:22:36
◼
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battery packs except i'm only going to do movies and speaking of Marco Marco
[TS]
01:22:40
◼
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recommended one to me personally can't find it here the other one to check out
[TS]
01:22:47
◼
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his anchor kan keer which are some X goggle people who make a very nice
[TS]
01:22:53
◼
►
battery and charging stuff they're the ones who i also have a 4-port USB
[TS]
01:22:58
◼
►
charger which I kit which I travel with now so I can do want to bring any of the
[TS]
01:23:03
◼
►
Apple charging bricks I just bring this and plug in my macbook iPhone Apple
[TS]
01:23:10
◼
►
watch and can charge something else at the same time
[TS]
01:23:14
◼
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all right i'll take a look at the anchor ones but every mark over recommended one
[TS]
01:23:17
◼
►
to me that he bought at $MONEY at amazon for 24 bucks and it has built-in cables
[TS]
01:23:23
◼
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and I'm a built-in cable fan so you don't you know it's just one thing to
[TS]
01:23:27
◼
►
put your pocket and the son-of-a-bitchin thing broke i do hadn't even gotten past
[TS]
01:23:32
◼
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the point where I was just testing how you know like how quickly and it you
[TS]
01:23:38
◼
►
know how just testing a whole bunch of different these battery packs on my
[TS]
01:23:40
◼
►
phone every time I let my phone go down I don't use it like three times and I've
[TS]
01:23:44
◼
►
never even taken it out of the house so it wasn't like it it you know is dropped
[TS]
01:23:47
◼
►
or anything like that it's just the Lightning port on it just stopped
[TS]
01:23:51
◼
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working so i think there's a sort of you get what you pay for aspect in there and
[TS]
01:23:58
◼
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i also found it curious that Marco of all people was the one who recommended
[TS]
01:24:00
◼
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this coupon to me
[TS]
01:24:02
◼
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hmm yeah maybe an imposter
[TS]
01:24:08
◼
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I don't remember I don't remember the name of the company was we are here it
[TS]
01:24:11
◼
►
is it's underneath the pilots should on my desk
[TS]
01:24:13
◼
►
haha i hate to throw the company under the bus but it's a volt ready VLT re ad
[TS]
01:24:20
◼
►
Y and if you go to amazon and look at the Volt ready you'll see what I mean
[TS]
01:24:23
◼
►
about these integrated cables and they're super super thin the cables i
[TS]
01:24:28
◼
►
mean it's it's so much thinner than the Lightning port itself and I you know
[TS]
01:24:32
◼
►
don't think that's probably why I broke i think you need like a good thick cable
[TS]
01:24:36
◼
►
have you installed a new iOS 9.3 yet no I have not
[TS]
01:24:44
◼
►
I haven't either i'm not i'm not in the beta cycle what's what's different about
[TS]
01:24:52
◼
►
the-the-the like fake sherlocked flux or whatever that thing is called efflux so
[TS]
01:24:59
◼
►
you can get the warmer colors at nighttime so it's easier on your eyes
[TS]
01:25:05
◼
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when you're gonna go to sleep
[TS]
01:25:07
◼
►
interesting and there were all those new features for education like the multiple
[TS]
01:25:13
◼
►
user mode and that kind of stuff what you assume is going to be part of iOS 10
[TS]
01:25:19
◼
►
yeah so everyone can know but it's still it's still just a beta right
[TS]
01:25:23
◼
►
yes yeah yeah I thought maybe I really out to lunch now I'm kind of done I I i
[TS]
01:25:30
◼
►
do the beta's of the major new OS over the summer but that's mainly because i
[TS]
01:25:34
◼
►
know you know my phone two-year-old I'm getting a new phone anyway so if it goes
[TS]
01:25:38
◼
►
belly-up and it's usually there's like major major features I want to get get
[TS]
01:25:42
◼
►
ahold of them but for stuff like the minor ones i usually don't do the beta's
[TS]
01:25:45
◼
►
yeah same
[TS]
01:25:47
◼
►
have you uh have you been using the apple TV a lot everyday everything
[TS]
01:25:54
◼
►
have you used the game controller yet yeah I have the game controller uh I
[TS]
01:25:59
◼
►
don't use it very frequently because I just I just don't play video games
[TS]
01:26:02
◼
►
yeah i'm not one to two hopefully play games on and I used that the first day I
[TS]
01:26:09
◼
►
had it and then I haven't used it since the second
[TS]
01:26:12
◼
►
yeah but that's really just me it's not like that i couldn't find some game
[TS]
01:26:15
◼
►
that like I found a couple games i really like but I just never occurred to
[TS]
01:26:19
◼
►
me to play video games
[TS]
01:26:21
◼
►
yeah me neither i thought i would though I i thought so too i think they have all
[TS]
01:26:27
◼
►
the things like if i time-traveled back and talked to my like 10 11 12 year old
[TS]
01:26:32
◼
►
I think that I would have lots of good news to tell young John Gruber and I
[TS]
01:26:36
◼
►
think he would be very happy about his future but i think the of all the things
[TS]
01:26:39
◼
►
he'd be most surprised by is that I would tell them that I you you're going
[TS]
01:26:44
◼
►
to grow up and have the financial ability and the flexibility in your
[TS]
01:26:48
◼
►
daily schedule to own and play any video game you want for as long as you want
[TS]
01:26:54
◼
►
practically speaking and you're not going to
[TS]
01:26:59
◼
►
yeah I think that pretty much I think that it my like 12 year old self would
[TS]
01:27:06
◼
►
instantly suspect that whoever this guy who does kind of look like me and it it
[TS]
01:27:12
◼
►
was credibly well cast to play the person who's going to prank me and tell
[TS]
01:27:16
◼
►
me that it's me when I'm 42 is obviously full of shit because there's no chance
[TS]
01:27:22
◼
►
that if i could spend 4-5 hours every night playing cool video games that I
[TS]
01:27:26
◼
►
wouldn't be doing it i downloaded one for the Apple watch which you know that
[TS]
01:27:32
◼
►
was another one of those things where they were like oh watch os/2 is going to
[TS]
01:27:36
◼
►
be you know it's gonna be really helpful for games because they'll be able to run
[TS]
01:27:40
◼
►
directly on the watch and also be able to use the digital crown as a
[TS]
01:27:45
◼
►
controlling mechanism and now not fun one of the games was like that almost
[TS]
01:27:51
◼
►
like a card game type thing and it was just too too weird and the other one was
[TS]
01:27:56
◼
►
like pong type thing and it was just so jerky that I saw that one is losing
[TS]
01:28:01
◼
►
because I either got the same one or i downloaded a similar one and I think
[TS]
01:28:06
◼
►
maybe there might be a month a bunch because if all you have is the crown
[TS]
01:28:09
◼
►
pong is very obvious concept and it was terrible it was absolutely terrible
[TS]
01:28:15
◼
►
yeah i did not enjoy that as as as we head into the new Apple watch season and
[TS]
01:28:21
◼
►
i suspect that they're going to announce it
[TS]
01:28:24
◼
►
early-ish this year
[TS]
01:28:25
◼
►
you know I just event that they're supposedly having in march i do think
[TS]
01:28:30
◼
►
we'll get a new watch
[TS]
01:28:32
◼
►
and as we you know what do we think of Apple watch I i have to write this piece
[TS]
01:28:36
◼
►
i do because i have a lot of thoughts on it but the bottom line i think i think
[TS]
01:28:40
◼
►
it's very clear in hindsight that they should not have had any apps at all for
[TS]
01:28:43
◼
►
the first Apple watch
[TS]
01:28:45
◼
►
I mean maybe eventually it will be adapt platform but it's clearly not ready for
[TS]
01:28:48
◼
►
it yet and slow apps is way worse than no apps in my opinion and to me even now
[TS]
01:28:56
◼
►
even you know with watch os/2 and and everything it's also still two
[TS]
01:29:00
◼
►
incredibly inconsistent where if i go to like a weather app on the watch
[TS]
01:29:06
◼
►
sometimes it will just spin and spin and spin until the screen goes off and if i
[TS]
01:29:11
◼
►
go to the exact same what app like dark sky or something in take my phone out of
[TS]
01:29:15
◼
►
my pocket and go to dark sky it works instantly and as all you know all the
[TS]
01:29:19
◼
►
data I want you know the information about the weather that I was looking for
[TS]
01:29:22
◼
►
and so what it doesn't take long to be psychologically conditioned to because
[TS]
01:29:28
◼
►
you don't trust that it's even going to work at all on the watch it doesn't take
[TS]
01:29:31
◼
►
you very long at all that you just instinctively go for the app on your
[TS]
01:29:35
◼
►
phone totally especially with that this s success phones being so fast and also
[TS]
01:29:43
◼
►
the 3d touch shortcuts like it's now you know when the watch launched to me it
[TS]
01:29:49
◼
►
was really helpful to be able to quickly access something without reaching in my
[TS]
01:29:53
◼
►
pocket and taking out this giant phone but now the phone is so fast that and
[TS]
01:29:59
◼
►
the touch ID a unlock is so fast that it actually is faster now again to take my
[TS]
01:30:05
◼
►
phone out than to try to get anything done on the watch right it's just it's
[TS]
01:30:10
◼
►
just and that doesn't mean that you know that the watch as a whole is a failure
[TS]
01:30:13
◼
►
but I feel like what the this first watch was good and interesting for is
[TS]
01:30:18
◼
►
just the ambien stuff you know the tracking the health you know tracking
[TS]
01:30:22
◼
►
your stuff doing a workout and whatever you configure to be shown at a glance on
[TS]
01:30:27
◼
►
your you know without even do anything is you know and that's enough that's
[TS]
01:30:31
◼
►
enough to make it a product i think that the idea that they had to make had to
[TS]
01:30:34
◼
►
have apps and the first one was wrong and I think it's kind of funny because
[TS]
01:30:39
◼
►
famously had no apps on the first iphone and it turns out that the phone was
[TS]
01:30:44
◼
►
absolutely it you know probably the best platform for quote unquote apps that
[TS]
01:30:48
◼
►
mankind has ever created it's like the pinnacle of apps as the central premise
[TS]
01:30:53
◼
►
of how you're going to use advice didn't even have it for so if the if the phone
[TS]
01:30:58
◼
►
can get away without it at first I don't see why the watch couldn't have and I
[TS]
01:31:01
◼
►
think in hindsight the watch should have yeah i wrote kind of a whoever was like
[TS]
01:31:06
◼
►
7 13 view about a month ago now and that was you know
[TS]
01:31:11
◼
►
similarly might my high-level conclusion was i still use it everyday and i still
[TS]
01:31:16
◼
►
really like it a lot but i haven't i'm not using it for any new things than i
[TS]
01:31:20
◼
►
was at the beginning so basically using it for the same things I did when I
[TS]
01:31:25
◼
►
started so in that way it felt stalled in the sense that we were promised this
[TS]
01:31:29
◼
►
kind of unlimited platform and no one's really taking advantage of it whereas in
[TS]
01:31:35
◼
►
reality like I'm very happy with the things that it does well the fitness
[TS]
01:31:38
◼
►
tracking the you know so again I'm always surprised how useful it is to
[TS]
01:31:43
◼
►
have the time in front of me especially with my phone now being so unwieldy and
[TS]
01:31:49
◼
►
you know in a few very other basic things so i'm joined on it
[TS]
01:31:55
◼
►
I've enjoyed that from other people too i know marco was saying on his podcast
[TS]
01:31:58
◼
►
either the last episode of the last one I wasn't too worried he's like for
[TS]
01:32:02
◼
►
Christmas got a mechanical watch because he's you know . he never watching this
[TS]
01:32:07
◼
►
entire life but just the convenience of having the time on your wrist it turns
[TS]
01:32:11
◼
►
out that's actually pretty cool
[TS]
01:32:12
◼
►
yeah all of us like me have been watching my life as I come on with fact
[TS]
01:32:18
◼
►
that you have to be told those I know I i had a while you know I had I was the
[TS]
01:32:21
◼
►
kid with the nerd watching school with the calculator Cassie or whatever but I
[TS]
01:32:26
◼
►
forgot I forgot all about that
[TS]
01:32:27
◼
►
honestly like the temperatures cool to have yeah that's the one thing when i
[TS]
01:32:31
◼
►
wear my traditional watch my regular watch the one thing that I miss every
[TS]
01:32:37
◼
►
single day is that I expect to be able to look at my wrist and see what the
[TS]
01:32:41
◼
►
temperature is outside
[TS]
01:32:42
◼
►
yeah and every time it it's always it adding it's it's
[TS]
01:32:48
◼
►
it's uncanny how I could go days without wearing my Apple watch and I still as
[TS]
01:32:52
◼
►
i'm heading out the door and deciding which code to put on a look at my wrist
[TS]
01:32:55
◼
►
and I'm like oh and it's not gonna help ya
[TS]
01:32:59
◼
►
ru ru apple picking with it yeah i do when i have it on an apple pie and
[TS]
01:33:03
◼
►
that's another thing too is because the supermarket where we go
[TS]
01:33:07
◼
►
there's a whole foods and they take Apple pay and i instantly every single
[TS]
01:33:11
◼
►
time I see whether i'm wearing my Apple watch or not Apple watch
[TS]
01:33:14
◼
►
I put my wrist up to the key haha nice yeah i do I mean almost every day I do
[TS]
01:33:23
◼
►
that so it is I find and I thought so I thought it would be true back in May
[TS]
01:33:28
◼
►
when i first got it and it turns out it's very true it is terrific in the
[TS]
01:33:32
◼
►
East Coast winter to have an apple pay thing that you don't have to fish out of
[TS]
01:33:36
◼
►
your pocket when you're wearing a coat and layers of clothing and stuff gloves
[TS]
01:33:41
◼
►
to write and actually you can go straight through the sleeve you don't
[TS]
01:33:44
◼
►
even need to roll up your sleeve you just double click on the button it and
[TS]
01:33:50
◼
►
that NFC will go right through your shirt
[TS]
01:33:52
◼
►
now it is interesting i'll take it one thing too is I never use the single
[TS]
01:33:58
◼
►
click on that contact thing to contact people only by accident right and so I
[TS]
01:34:03
◼
►
really feel like in hindsight they got that wrong like single-click should have
[TS]
01:34:07
◼
►
an Apple pay and double-click should have been jump to contact shortcut at
[TS]
01:34:11
◼
►
least for me personally because when i do want to contact somebody like if I
[TS]
01:34:14
◼
►
want to text my son i'll do it via serie I'll long-press the other thing and to
[TS]
01:34:20
◼
►
say text Jonas whatever it is I want to text him because you have to dictate the
[TS]
01:34:26
◼
►
the text anyway so why not just initiate the contact from the voice to it see I i
[TS]
01:34:34
◼
►
assume they pry thought people would be doing the drawings and the touch stuff
[TS]
01:34:38
◼
►
more than they do like I haven't done that stuff in months now only when
[TS]
01:34:42
◼
►
somebody gets a new Apple watch
[TS]
01:34:43
◼
►
yeah right in hindsight is the land is just one of those things where and I
[TS]
01:34:48
◼
►
kind of it makes me a little worried you know it's a worrisome product in some
[TS]
01:34:51
◼
►
ways about Apple because it makes me wonder what what made them think well
[TS]
01:34:55
◼
►
they were using it themselves that this would be useful like
[TS]
01:34:58
◼
►
it just seems to me that if they spent as much time thinking about it is i have
[TS]
01:35:03
◼
►
in the first six months while i wore it why didn't they come to the same
[TS]
01:35:06
◼
►
conclusions i did like it mean that's good
[TS]
01:35:09
◼
►
the whole idea was a great idea I was very intrigued by it you know that the
[TS]
01:35:14
◼
►
idea that you would have these favorite people and one touch away from just
[TS]
01:35:18
◼
►
sending you know your heartbeat or whatever fabulous idea but then I feel
[TS]
01:35:22
◼
►
like once you actually have it on your wrist and you can do it it turns out it
[TS]
01:35:26
◼
►
doesn't doesn't really stick i think that it's going to be some of the most
[TS]
01:35:30
◼
►
interesting things are going to be what they change based on what they have now
[TS]
01:35:35
◼
►
learned from you know millions of people using this thing and that's the software
[TS]
01:35:40
◼
►
as well as the hardware
[TS]
01:35:41
◼
►
I think we've already seen a realizing that the sport is kind of the is the
[TS]
01:35:47
◼
►
main watch so yeah there's more colors now we'll see what else changes with
[TS]
01:35:52
◼
►
that but well I said the software changes
[TS]
01:35:54
◼
►
yeah i know you said it was like the best one yeah i think it's the best one
[TS]
01:35:57
◼
►
and I think all of the worrying that people did I think this is to me one of
[TS]
01:36:00
◼
►
the most interesting things about it is all the worrying people did that that
[TS]
01:36:04
◼
►
the common person is going to get short-changed and gets this cruddy
[TS]
01:36:07
◼
►
aluminum one and people it's only rich people who can afford a thousand-dollar
[TS]
01:36:11
◼
►
stainless steel one we're going to get the nice one it's actually the other way
[TS]
01:36:14
◼
►
around the people who bought the $400 sport1 got the best watch I really do
[TS]
01:36:19
◼
►
believe that
[TS]
01:36:20
◼
►
yeah I love mine and so I'm just super curious to see what what they change
[TS]
01:36:26
◼
►
software wise to know
[TS]
01:36:29
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yeah I am too i'm I've and I don't want to do this software group has really
[TS]
01:36:34
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gotten good at keeping a little you know not much leaks out of apple software
[TS]
01:36:38
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these days so I think we're in for a surprise
[TS]
01:36:40
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I don't think that you know who knows you mean you never know what mark
[TS]
01:36:43
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government's going to figure out but yeah I i don't know i think there's a
[TS]
01:36:47
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good chance that will be surprised so any guesses we have actually real
[TS]
01:36:51
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guesses
[TS]
01:36:52
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I if I you ask me right now what do I think they're going to do I'm going to
[TS]
01:36:56
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guess a lot of Health and sensor related improvements and this one might be more
[TS]
01:37:02
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of a mean we just wishful thinking but i really really really would like to see
[TS]
01:37:08
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do something a lot smarter with where the aggregate health data is it you know
[TS]
01:37:15
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making health center more of a here's everything that we know about you type
[TS]
01:37:21
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thing like me its way two separated with the activities is just for the watch
[TS]
01:37:26
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stuff and not you imp you know what I mean right and you know i have six
[TS]
01:37:33
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months or well I have eight months of aggregated fitness tracking like okay
[TS]
01:37:39
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what-what higher-level trends can you tell me
[TS]
01:37:41
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yeah you know okay when you don't know when you work out on the weekend you do
[TS]
01:37:49
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something better
[TS]
01:37:50
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during the week I don't know just like give me some more other than that page
[TS]
01:37:54
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of all the Rings which is kinda cool but was cool you know the first couple times
[TS]
01:38:00
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I looked at it is nice to be able to go back and kind of brag about the day I
[TS]
01:38:04
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walked twenty seven thousand steps steps at CES but it would be great to actually
[TS]
01:38:09
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get some more useful information out of that page
[TS]
01:38:12
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yeah i think that if there's it if they're paying attention to how people
[TS]
01:38:15
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really seem to be using watching the real world is going to be a lot more
[TS]
01:38:18
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about quantifying you know and helping you make sense and organize your the
[TS]
01:38:22
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data that the watch nose and like I mean the other thing too is if I'm not
[TS]
01:38:25
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wearing my watch but i have my my phone with me the the minimal compared to the
[TS]
01:38:30
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watch but the minimum tracking that the phone does should be easily combined
[TS]
01:38:34
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with the watch you know to create an overall picture of like my activity and
[TS]
01:38:38
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stuff like that and where it's been and then the other thing I think I hope that
[TS]
01:38:42
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they're working on is I think that they should really work to make it smarter
[TS]
01:38:46
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about he whether it's watch faces or the glances or locate you know but something
[TS]
01:38:53
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so that it's just smarter about showing you what you want to be looking at when
[TS]
01:38:57
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you look at rest
[TS]
01:38:58
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yeah there's plenty of context that knows about you know where I'm at what
[TS]
01:39:03
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I'm doing that it could i would even trust it to shuffle the complications
[TS]
01:39:08
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for me somehow
[TS]
01:39:09
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yeah based on the context you know if I met the airport show me the travel
[TS]
01:39:15
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complications if it's nighttime show me you know certain things you know and i
[TS]
01:39:20
◼
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know that it
[TS]
01:39:21
◼
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be kind of obnoxious to have to program the logic behind that so maybe you
[TS]
01:39:25
◼
►
wouldn't be able to program it but to me that would be there there's so much more
[TS]
01:39:30
◼
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context that that they could be integrating into a lot of the decisions
[TS]
01:39:35
◼
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about what they show you where there are a lot of Android watches at the CES not
[TS]
01:39:42
◼
►
in a really noticeable way let me last year it was soda the whole watch things
[TS]
01:39:49
◼
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very novel and of course there was the famous apple watch knock off and get a
[TS]
01:39:55
◼
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lot of the boots i guess had kind of Android watches but i think that i
[TS]
01:40:00
◼
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didn't really it wasn't like a huge thing I mean like Samsung had one but I
[TS]
01:40:05
◼
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think they're only major change was just color
[TS]
01:40:07
◼
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yeah and then there was that a Fitbit yeah it looks a little like an Apple
[TS]
01:40:14
◼
►
watch but it like a hexagonal like that yeah corners
[TS]
01:40:18
◼
►
yeah I kind of dumped on it i looked at its fine i mean whatever fewer if you're
[TS]
01:40:22
◼
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trying to buy two-hundred-dollar thing or whatever its and you want to fit that
[TS]
01:40:27
◼
►
also does a couple other things the advantage that Fitbit has is that they
[TS]
01:40:31
◼
►
can get away with an ugly ish design and quite frankly I think that their thing
[TS]
01:40:34
◼
►
is ugly it it certainly uglier in the Apple watch and yeah they can get away
[TS]
01:40:38
◼
►
with it because people in their audience is primarily looking at fitness tracking
[TS]
01:40:42
◼
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and so if your thing you're most interested in is fitness tracking
[TS]
01:40:45
◼
►
therefore less than great aesthetics can you can get away with it whereas Apple
[TS]
01:40:52
◼
►
its primary thing is it's supposed to be a good-looking watch yeah and i think
[TS]
01:40:58
◼
►
the whole point behind this is that they want to become a more Universal device
[TS]
01:41:03
◼
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and get away from you know the biggest risk to Fitbit is that fitness tracking
[TS]
01:41:08
◼
►
becomes a nap on a more Universal device as opposed to separate a you know thing
[TS]
01:41:15
◼
►
that you carry around the the way that calculator is now a nap on a phone or a
[TS]
01:41:21
◼
►
flashlight you know you know was carrying a little maglite around anymore
[TS]
01:41:25
◼
►
all rights your camera flash so you know I can see why they would want to kind of
[TS]
01:41:31
◼
►
go after that
[TS]
01:41:32
◼
►
more mainstream universal more useful market but I I just don't know they're
[TS]
01:41:38
◼
►
the company that has the the software and in the ecosystem that they can get
[TS]
01:41:43
◼
►
enough people using it i mean there's still this the selling a lot people are
[TS]
01:41:47
◼
►
buying a lot of foot bits there
[TS]
01:41:48
◼
►
the brand has awareness and people like it but i don't know i think they're
[TS]
01:41:54
◼
►
doomed because i think that that they're not going to be able to stay far enough
[TS]
01:41:57
◼
►
ahead to to to stay ahead of the eventual good enough fitness tracking
[TS]
01:42:04
◼
►
that built into other devices you know include I I'd well I think right before
[TS]
01:42:10
◼
►
or right after they went public I did kind of a trollee post where I said if
[TS]
01:42:13
◼
►
its long-term stock chart revealed or something like that it was for the
[TS]
01:42:18
◼
►
long-term sales chart revealed it was it was the the shipments curve of the ipod
[TS]
01:42:23
◼
►
it was like you know
[TS]
01:42:24
◼
►
yep this this is a single-purpose device that is basically become a nap on a more
[TS]
01:42:30
◼
►
general purpose is over the holidays we're at Amiens mom's house or something
[TS]
01:42:36
◼
►
I don't know something at some point during the Christmas New Year's thing
[TS]
01:42:38
◼
►
and that's when Christmas and her mom had a and LED Maglite and I was just
[TS]
01:42:47
◼
►
blown away by how awesomely powerful the the flashlight is a all the faucets we
[TS]
01:42:54
◼
►
have we have we have a bunch of them from maglite I've always been a fan of
[TS]
01:42:56
◼
►
their stuff because it's so well made but ours are all the old incandescent
[TS]
01:43:00
◼
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thing and I was like wow it's like I've somehow missed this revolution and I
[TS]
01:43:05
◼
►
need to upgrade all our flashlight so I went flashlight shopping for myself and
[TS]
01:43:09
◼
►
it's so funny how it's like maglite has all this so many slogans on a bunch of
[TS]
01:43:14
◼
►
their smaller one so it's like you know
[TS]
01:43:16
◼
►
yes you really do need a flashlight yes you can you can have a flashlight that's
[TS]
01:43:19
◼
►
so much better than the one on your phone and it's like if you're telling
[TS]
01:43:22
◼
►
people that they if you're just reminding them that they still need to
[TS]
01:43:24
◼
►
buy a flashlight you're you're in trouble like yeah it is exactly it
[TS]
01:43:28
◼
►
mirrors exactly what the consumer camera company started saying you know five or
[TS]
01:43:33
◼
►
six years ago about yeah you don't need a two-hundred-dollar point-and-shoot
[TS]
01:43:37
◼
►
camera and it's like no you don't go to any tourist location in the world and
[TS]
01:43:41
◼
►
look at what people are using they're all using their phones
[TS]
01:43:44
◼
►
totally and flashlight is right there
[TS]
01:43:49
◼
►
it's like you know who knew who had said to me it's like something i would have
[TS]
01:43:53
◼
►
never predicted I mean an apple obviously didn't predict because they
[TS]
01:43:56
◼
►
were a little late to the game at making it something that you didn't need a nap
[TS]
01:43:59
◼
►
for but I use my phone as a flashlight probably at least once a day every day
[TS]
01:44:04
◼
►
every day
[TS]
01:44:05
◼
►
yeah it's it's crazy to me but it's awesome right but it's you know add it
[TS]
01:44:11
◼
►
to me in the same way i'm not saying Maglites going out of business but
[TS]
01:44:14
◼
►
they're there they're going to go to the business that was selling little
[TS]
01:44:17
◼
►
ten-dollar ones that you keep your desk is gone that's then it's never going to
[TS]
01:44:21
◼
►
come back the only lights flash lights are going to sell her the the big
[TS]
01:44:24
◼
►
serious ones that you need you know where you really do one like a
[TS]
01:44:27
◼
►
you-know-what to studi sell flashlight
[TS]
01:44:31
◼
►
yeah and that I mean in just to bring it back to that fit i guess that was the
[TS]
01:44:36
◼
►
criticism was that it wasn't going after the serious fitness market because it
[TS]
01:44:39
◼
►
doesn't have a gps right you know the marathon runners aren't using that that
[TS]
01:44:45
◼
►
model and I don't think it's gonna be enough of an Apple watch to beat apple
[TS]
01:44:50
◼
►
or even the google watches that at being a more general purpose device so
[TS]
01:44:56
◼
►
anything else you wanna talk about this week damn I not really
[TS]
01:45:04
◼
►
huh there was you know what about what do you want to talk about I was going to
[TS]
01:45:08
◼
►
say there is a I as it comes and goes but it's it you know I I don't write
[TS]
01:45:15
◼
►
about finance generally but imma jump somewhat intrigued by and I don't think
[TS]
01:45:18
◼
►
that the company is immune to it i think even if you're primarily interested in
[TS]
01:45:22
◼
►
apple because of their products as I am that you still have to consider they're
[TS]
01:45:29
◼
►
like stock price and there you know quarterly financials because you know
[TS]
01:45:33
◼
►
they're publicly held company and it were at this point the whole market is
[TS]
01:45:38
◼
►
down quite frankly but Apple is down further than the market and they're
[TS]
01:45:42
◼
►
trading at a ridiculously low price earnings ratio at the moment and it
[TS]
01:45:47
◼
►
brings out and bridges brings out the crazies
[TS]
01:45:50
◼
►
I mean no I you cannot make this up I mean this guy trip Chowdhry is is almost
[TS]
01:45:56
◼
►
comically it
[TS]
01:45:58
◼
►
really is hard to believe that he's not a parody that there's somebody out there
[TS]
01:46:01
◼
►
who made up the name and you know like the mac elope and it's it it's a fake
[TS]
01:46:06
◼
►
analyst who doesn't even exist in four years now he's been getting away with
[TS]
01:46:10
◼
►
this and getting quoted and he keeps saying more and more outrageous things
[TS]
01:46:13
◼
►
and everybody just keeps quoting him that you know putting the word analyst
[TS]
01:46:18
◼
►
in front of your name is somehow this magical credibility badge he literally
[TS]
01:46:24
◼
►
said last week called tim cook a bozo and called for him to be a not fired
[TS]
01:46:29
◼
►
he called them to be demoted back to chief operating officer amazing and says
[TS]
01:46:35
◼
►
that jon rubinstein should come back to the company and become the CEO perfect
[TS]
01:46:41
◼
►
which is it's not gonna happen
[TS]
01:46:43
◼
►
that is the other way worthy co-ceo with Fidel I guess you bring buy em all back
[TS]
01:46:49
◼
►
and Angela Lawrence is a nitwit or something i forget what is word wasn't
[TS]
01:46:52
◼
►
you know she's got to go
[TS]
01:46:54
◼
►
meanwhile the apple stores are now never been more popular more successful it i
[TS]
01:46:59
◼
►
mean it's clearly through there is a lot of I wouldn't say pessimism as much as
[TS]
01:47:08
◼
►
just kind of people are not quite sure if if iphone sales are going to grow
[TS]
01:47:15
◼
►
this year and I don't know maybe that doesn't matter to the average person it
[TS]
01:47:22
◼
►
it does matter to Apple as it is a growth story around and growth certainly
[TS]
01:47:27
◼
►
is important in any company and you know sure there are their cycles were things
[TS]
01:47:34
◼
►
flatten out or maybe they decrease little and they start growing again and
[TS]
01:47:39
◼
►
it yes Apple that you know may relative to the market that's one thing but there
[TS]
01:47:45
◼
►
are companies that use stock performed great last year i believe the Amazons
[TS]
01:47:50
◼
►
organizando amazon it seems like everybody's really really caught on to
[TS]
01:47:54
◼
►
em and I think deservedly so I mean but but just little things like the way that
[TS]
01:47:58
◼
►
amazon by most you know the accounting I've seen that got 51-percent of the
[TS]
01:48:04
◼
►
online holiday shopping that's it an enormous number and it's sort of a magic
[TS]
01:48:08
◼
►
number two you know like fundamentally if they got
[TS]
01:48:12
◼
►
forty-nine percent of it instead of 51-percent it's you know it's the same
[TS]
01:48:15
◼
►
it's a rounding error and probably well within the margin of error for however
[TS]
01:48:19
◼
►
that the outside group estimated that the numbers but 51 is you know over that
[TS]
01:48:24
◼
►
fifty percent line and that's a magic number and you can see why that would
[TS]
01:48:27
◼
►
fuel you know investor confidence in their stock
[TS]
01:48:32
◼
►
yeah so in the meantime you have you know these the this huge group of
[TS]
01:48:37
◼
►
panelists who try to guess every quarter how many phones Apple's can sell and
[TS]
01:48:42
◼
►
what the revenue and profits are going to be and and what's been happening
[TS]
01:48:46
◼
►
recently is that they've been reducing their forecasts for for iphone sales and
[TS]
01:48:51
◼
►
for i think also forever night I don't have the the trend line in front of me
[TS]
01:48:57
◼
►
actually have access to a pretty what i thought would be an interesting chart of
[TS]
01:49:00
◼
►
like how the estimates change over time but they actually changed so little that
[TS]
01:49:04
◼
►
it's just kind of a flatline it's not very it's not actually a very
[TS]
01:49:07
◼
►
interesting chart but we'll see
[TS]
01:49:10
◼
►
I mean yeah this could be this could possibly be a year and by the way this
[TS]
01:49:15
◼
►
has been known for a while like I think I wrote about this in i would say july
[TS]
01:49:20
◼
►
or even april of last year that this coming year could be the year where the
[TS]
01:49:25
◼
►
company doesn't grow very much at all and and we'll see I mean you know it
[TS]
01:49:34
◼
►
certainly does matter for some reasons but it also seems to be creating an
[TS]
01:49:38
◼
►
opportunity for a lot of people to blow things out of context and be right there
[TS]
01:49:43
◼
►
is it silly about things there's a very interesting story here i think but it's
[TS]
01:49:48
◼
►
all nuanced and in requires a you know to be let's be serious about this that
[TS]
01:49:52
◼
►
that this company the biggest company world is not going to implode
[TS]
01:49:56
◼
►
it's like we're talking about growth stopping not that iphone is going to do
[TS]
01:50:01
◼
►
it the way some of these people are talking about it is as though that mean
[TS]
01:50:05
◼
►
here's a little headline the iphone slow down spells doom for apple
[TS]
01:50:09
◼
►
I mean that's an actual headline and ostensibly serious business publication
[TS]
01:50:13
◼
►
it's ridiculous doesn't spell doom but it certainly is interesting and I think
[TS]
01:50:19
◼
►
it's almost hit it if you're realistic about it you have to admit
[TS]
01:50:23
◼
►
that just back-of-the-envelope math would suggest that the basic story is
[TS]
01:50:28
◼
►
off actually very easy iphone sales were suppressed for a at least a year or two
[TS]
01:50:33
◼
►
it seems because consumers decided they liked bigger phones and the iphone
[TS]
01:50:38
◼
►
didn't have a big phone and it takes apple at least at least two years to to
[TS]
01:50:43
◼
►
make a change like that because so much you know because of their we only do one
[TS]
01:50:47
◼
►
major new design year and we bank you know bet the bank on it
[TS]
01:50:51
◼
►
they're stuck with it for two years and when the 6 and 6s came out for the 6 and
[TS]
01:50:57
◼
►
6 plus came out last year there was a it satisfy the demand but be it was pent-up
[TS]
01:51:03
◼
►
because a lot of people have waited because they were in there were rumors I
[TS]
01:51:06
◼
►
mean everybody know anybody who like us knows casual people who are like hey is
[TS]
01:51:11
◼
►
it true that the Apple is going to come with a bigger phone was like well you
[TS]
01:51:14
◼
►
know India give your standard i don't know but i certainly seems like it
[TS]
01:51:18
◼
►
that's all . signs point to and they were like cool i'm going to get that and
[TS]
01:51:21
◼
►
there waited for it and then they did and they had unbelievable sales i think
[TS]
01:51:26
◼
►
that that sales so far from what we know that the 6s and 6s plus army are
[TS]
01:51:31
◼
►
matching that but they the question is are they going to grow even further and
[TS]
01:51:35
◼
►
they may not but the thing that's also very obvious is at this point it they're
[TS]
01:51:40
◼
►
getting to the point where they're running out of people on the planet who
[TS]
01:51:42
◼
►
can afford iphones right which there may be actually gonna help out with the you
[TS]
01:51:49
◼
►
know second hand-me-down subscription phones around this year but you know
[TS]
01:51:55
◼
►
we'll see at this point though they really and they're reaching the point
[TS]
01:52:00
◼
►
where I really think that to grow it has to be at the lower end by widening the
[TS]
01:52:07
◼
►
number of phones you know lower-cost phones are being sold their iphones
[TS]
01:52:10
◼
►
because that I and i really do think they're at the point where it they there
[TS]
01:52:17
◼
►
aren't any there just aren't untap people left the other a few google
[TS]
01:52:22
◼
►
employees with Nexus phones and then that's about it you know and that's
[TS]
01:52:27
◼
►
where other products come into play to like the watch for the apple TV but
[TS]
01:52:31
◼
►
those are both so early in their life cycle that
[TS]
01:52:34
◼
►
there's you know even even Apple music which we calculated is on a billion
[TS]
01:52:38
◼
►
dollar revenue run rate like billion dollars is not that much to apple know
[TS]
01:52:43
◼
►
how many how many watches do we think they sold the last time I ran after last
[TS]
01:52:49
◼
►
quarter my number was around five million just based on kind of the
[TS]
01:52:53
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changes in that other products thing could be a little more than that but the
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01:52:57
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Christmas quarter is probably going to be you know on another level so right
[TS]
01:53:02
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we'll know in a few weeks I mean it just making up a completely random number i
[TS]
01:53:05
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would guess that they probably moved like 5 to 10 million last quarter alone
[TS]
01:53:10
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but who knows I have an idea right and each one of those that eat it did the
[TS]
01:53:20
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average selling prices easily guessed at around five hundred dollars because
[TS]
01:53:23
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overwhelmingly most of them are Sport and Sport ones with four hundred dollars
[TS]
01:53:26
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and then you know just enough of those still want would raise it up to around
[TS]
01:53:29
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500 so if they said every million that they sell is five hundred dollars in
[TS]
01:53:35
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revenue that's what is that
[TS]
01:53:38
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so basically a billion for every 2 million phones their watches don't and
[TS]
01:53:42
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so they've you know they've built in your one a multi-billion dollar business
[TS]
01:53:45
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which is pretty good and I think it's about helping out yeah but if your Apple
[TS]
01:53:50
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it's not going to really drive much growth especially if you have to offset
[TS]
01:53:54
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you know the ipad declining and you know the mac is the mac has been up but it
[TS]
01:54:01
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sometimes falls and that sort of stuff so yeah my guess is that the ipad is
[TS]
01:54:05
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stabilized i think that the ipad is going to settle in as a nine to 10
[TS]
01:54:12
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million of quarter device in the same way that the mac has long been a very
[TS]
01:54:17
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very stable product where but it but it actually grown and then very nice but
[TS]
01:54:23
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conservative way where it in the old days they don't like 10-15 years ago
[TS]
01:54:28
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that it was like a million max a quarter was the magic number
[TS]
01:54:33
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good quarters were over a million and bad quarters were under a million and
[TS]
01:54:38
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it's slowly but steadily grown to the point our they're doing like three four
[TS]
01:54:42
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four and a half million maxik order more
[TS]
01:54:46
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is it more now yeah that's right well I'm gonna pull out my my spreadsheet
[TS]
01:54:53
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here so give me 10 seconds but let's see last quarter was a 5.7 there you go
[TS]
01:54:59
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behind the time so that grown past alive because i believe a record right all
[TS]
01:55:05
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time record you know and I just say I i noticed though I noticed just the other
[TS]
01:55:09
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day I saw a guy in a starbucks and he was working on an old remember the white
[TS]
01:55:15
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macbooks remember the ones are you need to get white or black and he was working
[TS]
01:55:18
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on one of those it was in beautiful shape it was absolutely it really was it
[TS]
01:55:23
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wasn't totally clean and it had the screen look great and he was working on
[TS]
01:55:28
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like I couldn't tell which app is either accelerate numbers is clearly a
[TS]
01:55:31
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spreadsheet doing work on it and it look around inside had no surprise if you
[TS]
01:55:36
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know that he's still using it but that's what normal people do is they buy a that
[TS]
01:55:40
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they buy a back book or laptop and they use it until it breaks and if they this
[TS]
01:55:45
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is the 2009 imac we're using so trying out right now right and I feel like the
[TS]
01:55:50
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ipad you know is my theory on the ipad is that it
[TS]
01:55:55
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it's sold in these 20 million a quarter numbers because it was this sensational
[TS]
01:56:00
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new thing that met Adam and that no product never met before and lots of
[TS]
01:56:04
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people decided hey I could use one of those and they weren't replacing
[TS]
01:56:09
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anything they were adding it to their life and so it was way out of proportion
[TS]
01:56:12
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to do that
[TS]
01:56:14
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what could be expected in a normal quarter and that now it's settled in and
[TS]
01:56:19
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it's settled in i think roughly like somewhere around two times the number of
[TS]
01:56:23
◼
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Max they sell yeah and that that had a natural number of iPads to be sold a
[TS]
01:56:27
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quarter now na i just bought an ipad to ebay just to use the screen so the old
[TS]
01:56:35
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ones have value to ya
[TS]
01:56:36
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and again I don't think people get rid of them until they break now I had to
[TS]
01:56:40
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stop using my original iPad because it was still on i think ios5 and yeah the
[TS]
01:56:46
◼
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app we were using to watch TV on needed ios7 I think so got a ipad 2 and now I'm
[TS]
01:56:56
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so i don't know i think it's i think that this the the the the
[TS]
01:57:01
◼
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hyperventilating over this is ridiculous i do think it's interesting it's
[TS]
01:57:04
◼
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interesting to say what what does Apple do now that the ipod iphone has reached
[TS]
01:57:10
◼
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peak iphone right and much like you know when when they messed something small up
[TS]
01:57:16
◼
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with the product people love to jump on it so you know imagine the whole company
[TS]
01:57:21
◼
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collapsing or you know not collapsing but actually just not growing like like
[TS]
01:57:27
◼
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crazy for a few quarters in a row but yeah what do they do it I don't you know
[TS]
01:57:32
◼
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they've they've done a few things and we'll see
[TS]
01:57:38
◼
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well and i think i think in terms of anybody's looking for growth
[TS]
01:57:41
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I I don't see how the watch could have done better in the first year and
[TS]
01:57:45
◼
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honestly I've given the numbers it's gotten I think that they've sold outside
[TS]
01:57:48
◼
►
the number III outside how well it deserves to assault like I don't think
[TS]
01:57:52
◼
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it's that great of a one-point product but it's actually remarkable that
[TS]
01:57:55
◼
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they're selling as many millions of them as it seems like they are and I think
[TS]
01:58:00
◼
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that's great and I think it's only going to get better and they do really read in
[TS]
01:58:04
◼
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the last few years they've really with every product since the ipad they do an
[TS]
01:58:09
◼
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amazing job in the first two or three years of greatly improving the product i
[TS]
01:58:14
◼
►
mean the ipad went from the ipad to the ipad 2 which is way thinner then there
[TS]
01:58:20
◼
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was the ipad 3 which was weird because it went right now but it got thicker and
[TS]
01:58:23
◼
►
heavier which was a weird sort of now you have this awesome retina screen but
[TS]
01:58:27
◼
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it's also thicker and heavier and then ever since
[TS]
01:58:29
◼
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from that point onward it's just gotten crazily thinner and faster and lighter
[TS]
01:58:33
◼
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and so I expect the exact same trajectory with the watch with a very
[TS]
01:58:38
◼
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aggressive annual schedule
[TS]
01:58:39
◼
►
yeah I'm excited I've I like mine a lot more than I thought I would so but it's
[TS]
01:58:46
◼
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still a long way to get between now and you know hundred million units a year so
[TS]
01:58:53
◼
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the other the left one last thing I thought from CES was at the and it sort
[TS]
01:58:57
◼
►
of ties into the what is Apple do now and it sort of ties into my thing about
[TS]
01:59:00
◼
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maybe they shouldn't have done apps on the watch was a thing with dieter bohn
[TS]
01:59:05
◼
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for the verge had an article about Tyson which is Samsung's
[TS]
01:59:08
◼
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not android their own homegrown operating system and that maybe it's
[TS]
01:59:13
◼
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going to do okay even though it never it you know nobody there's no app
[TS]
01:59:17
◼
►
developers you know targeting Tizen and that sort of the problem that windows
[TS]
01:59:23
◼
►
exemplifies is that at fast you know usually there's just one dominant
[TS]
01:59:29
◼
►
platform that that developers write for any any old days it used to be the
[TS]
01:59:33
◼
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Windows then it became on the desktop then it became the web and nowadays it's
[TS]
01:59:38
◼
►
you know it's split people still developed for the web but on mobile
[TS]
01:59:42
◼
►
people developed for iOS and they develop for android and if you're trying
[TS]
01:59:46
◼
►
to be the third you're out of luck because there's just too much task so
[TS]
01:59:51
◼
►
windows doesn't really get apps and Tyson you know get certainly gets less
[TS]
01:59:55
◼
►
than Windows but that maybe you know day guess what they when he was writing
[TS]
01:59:59
◼
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about with these
[TS]
01:59:59
◼
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about with these
[TS]
02:00:00
◼
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samsung watches that are running Tizen and it occurs to me that as we move past
[TS]
02:00:05
◼
►
the phone and get into these other devices platforms going forward and
[TS]
02:00:10
◼
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operating systems apps made-up need to be a part of that like and having your
[TS]
02:00:14
◼
►
own operating system that you inside your company completely control and you
[TS]
02:00:18
◼
►
can have your engineers optimize it you know if what you really want to work on
[TS]
02:00:22
◼
►
is low energy consumption well you can make that the highest priority because
[TS]
02:00:27
◼
►
you have your own operating system or if you want to do like what Apple's done
[TS]
02:00:33
◼
►
with metal and make this you know incredibly custom and high-performance
[TS]
02:00:38
◼
►
graphics pipeline you can do that and you can bake that into the operating
[TS]
02:00:42
◼
►
system at whatever point where it makes the most sense for your desires because
[TS]
02:00:46
◼
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you control the operating system
[TS]
02:00:48
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I just think that a lot of these things going forward that are going to become
[TS]
02:00:52
◼
►
computerized they don't need apps and therefore it doesn't matter if you know
[TS]
02:00:56
◼
►
if Samsung can do a good watch and it runs Tizen but there's no third party
[TS]
02:00:59
◼
►
apps for it that may not matter at all and where I'm going with this is to me
[TS]
02:01:03
◼
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the car might be the same thing or what you want out of your computerized car is
[TS]
02:01:08
◼
►
nothing to do with third-party apps right or or your I mean to Tizen is also
[TS]
02:01:13
◼
►
being used i believe in many of their televisions as well as the new fridge
[TS]
02:01:18
◼
►
with a tablet built into it and a bunch of this stuff and you know you can laugh
[TS]
02:01:23
◼
►
but if every if every gadget is eventually going to have a screen on it
[TS]
02:01:26
◼
►
you know your washing machine or something and the value of the apps the
[TS]
02:01:31
◼
►
logic is mostly running in the cloud and and what you're interacting with is just
[TS]
02:01:37
◼
►
you know either a notification or a you notice the button that basically says
[TS]
02:01:42
◼
►
run this this app in the background or respond to a notification or something
[TS]
02:01:47
◼
►
then absolutely it doesn't you don't really need all the UI development or
[TS]
02:01:53
◼
►
you know a separate app running on the device
[TS]
02:01:56
◼
►
did you see the the summon feature for the testicles
[TS]
02:02:02
◼
►
you know I i feel dumb because i actually had heard about that before but
[TS]
02:02:07
◼
►
I didn't realize it hadn't been announced
[TS]
02:02:10
◼
►
yeah i saw that I saw that
[TS]
02:02:11
◼
►
cool and that's the type of stuff that I think that's this is the revolution
[TS]
02:02:15
◼
►
that's coming to the car industry and it has nothing to do with apps right like
[TS]
02:02:19
◼
►
the fact that you can't get apps for your test what does not change anybody's
[TS]
02:02:23
◼
►
desire to buy a Tesla at all in either direction whether you didn't want one
[TS]
02:02:27
◼
►
before you do the fact that it's not an app platform is irrelevant it's the fact
[TS]
02:02:31
◼
►
that the car can do it
[TS]
02:02:33
◼
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abs are just the wrong concept for the car they really are i mean i know that
[TS]
02:02:37
◼
►
there's certain things like maybe you would want something app like for music
[TS]
02:02:42
◼
►
but it doesn't have to be apps you just want to get music in your car and yet so
[TS]
02:02:47
◼
►
there's something feature is really cool it's like a you can you tell yours Tesla
[TS]
02:02:52
◼
►
that you're ready to go to work and the Tesla will like open the garage door
[TS]
02:02:56
◼
►
get outside and be right there at the curb ready for you to get in and drive
[TS]
02:03:04
◼
►
and when you get home you can just get out of the Tesla in front of your house
[TS]
02:03:07
◼
►
and go in the front door and the Tesla will go through the the nit picky detail
[TS]
02:03:12
◼
►
of carefully driving itself into your garage and like the crazy long-term said
[TS]
02:03:18
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thing they said was like a few if you're in la la your car will drive from New
[TS]
02:03:22
◼
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York and come pick you up right that's the absolute yeah that you have right
[TS]
02:03:26
◼
►
now it's like limited to very very near proximity around your house or whatever
[TS]
02:03:30
◼
►
but that that you know that they've already got in place you know plans in
[TS]
02:03:34
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►
place where you'll be able to do it from any distance where there's continuous
[TS]
02:03:37
◼
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land access so you know you can't make your car magically get itself to Hawaii
[TS]
02:03:41
◼
►
but you can get
[TS]
02:03:43
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►
yeah but you can go LA to New York yeah I i love this I you know I i think that
[TS]
02:03:50
◼
►
the the the concept of of a car and of transport is really changing a lot and
[TS]
02:03:57
◼
►
yeah i mean that's it was funny because CES was literally the week before the
[TS]
02:04:04
◼
►
biggest car show in the world but it's there that a lot of these companies were
[TS]
02:04:08
◼
►
making their big announcements because they're all trying to position
[TS]
02:04:11
◼
►
themselves as technology companies now and you know something similar to what i
[TS]
02:04:18
◼
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love about Tesla is just thick these ideas are so wacky but then they just
[TS]
02:04:24
◼
►
released a software update
[TS]
02:04:25
◼
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there there like a self-driving mode i don't think anyone the week before was
[TS]
02:04:30
◼
►
like I wonder when my test is going to be able to drive itself and then Elon
[TS]
02:04:34
◼
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Musk is like here it is boom and I think that even have to dial it back now
[TS]
02:04:38
◼
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because it was like a little too crazy but while there I love it I i did i
[TS]
02:04:44
◼
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mention this on the show i figured if i did and I've such terrible podcast
[TS]
02:04:47
◼
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amnesia but that I would I got to drive in a self-driving mercedes-benz cool is
[TS]
02:04:53
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amazing is truly truly amazing
[TS]
02:04:56
◼
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mercedes flew a bunch of not a bunch of small number of writers out and I don't
[TS]
02:05:01
◼
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know why they picked me but I didn't question it just works to go Sunnydale
[TS]
02:05:07
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sunnyvale know go somewhere out there somewhere out in our heads that
[TS]
02:05:10
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investors can down the street from yahoo and got to ride in a self-driving
[TS]
02:05:17
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s-class we went out on the highway and the card drove did everything it you
[TS]
02:05:22
◼
►
know it was amazing and it works it absolutely works and it's not perfect
[TS]
02:05:26
◼
►
yet obviously but and it but if anything all the imperfections are on the side of
[TS]
02:05:30
◼
►
being conservative it is it's very heavy breaker it breaks very very aggressively
[TS]
02:05:36
◼
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we were heading up like an on-ramp to get onto a highway in terms of go
[TS]
02:05:41
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high-speed driving and we were it was later in the afternoon and we're heading
[TS]
02:05:44
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right into the Sun you know and and basically just talking to their
[TS]
02:05:49
◼
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engineers all of the things that make driving hard for humans are the exact
[TS]
02:05:52
◼
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same thing that make self-driving hard if you have trouble seeing the cameras
[TS]
02:05:56
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on the car have trouble seeing as well and it was really a lot of glare and
[TS]
02:06:00
◼
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braked going up the ramp because the glare was so bad that it couldn't really
[TS]
02:06:04
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even see it was like that the status indicator was just like can't tell
[TS]
02:06:08
◼
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what's ahead
[TS]
02:06:09
◼
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therefore it's going to stop and it was you know is an unnatural thing that
[TS]
02:06:12
◼
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human wouldn't have done and a couple of other times it broke a little bit too
[TS]
02:06:17
◼
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aggressively but for the most part I think you could easily if you didn't
[TS]
02:06:20
◼
►
tell somebody I think you could and blindfolded them i think that you could
[TS]
02:06:24
◼
►
easily the cars they already have today could easily fool somebody in thinking
[TS]
02:06:29
◼
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that a human did the driving
[TS]
02:06:31
◼
►
that's great yeah I'm that's gonna be awesome
[TS]
02:06:34
◼
►
so one of the questions I asked them was do they anticipate and that
[TS]
02:06:39
◼
►
are there obviously solving their solving it
[TS]
02:06:42
◼
►
so you know really really fascinating AI engineering problems hardware/software
[TS]
02:06:46
◼
►
sensors the the braking systems and the software of course to drive all this but
[TS]
02:06:51
◼
►
they're also solving legislative and regulatory problems at the same time and
[TS]
02:06:56
◼
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do they entered like right now you can buy said you i could go buy a Mercedes
[TS]
02:07:00
◼
►
spent every penny Ben's i drive off the lot i can instantly go and it greatly
[TS]
02:07:04
◼
►
exceed any speed limit in the United States at my own discretion
[TS]
02:07:09
◼
►
well I have that ability in a self-driving car and I was told quite
[TS]
02:07:13
◼
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quite bluntly know there's almost no chance that would be legal for them to
[TS]
02:07:18
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make a self-driving car that will exceed speed limits which is kind of weird and
[TS]
02:07:22
◼
►
it's going to drive the sort of libertarian mindset people i think a
[TS]
02:07:26
◼
►
little nutty but their explanation was but why do you want to drive faster now
[TS]
02:07:30
◼
►
because you want to get you know you're bored you know and if you're if you're
[TS]
02:07:34
◼
►
not paying attention to the road if you're just reading or watching TV or
[TS]
02:07:38
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whatever on your way to work
[TS]
02:07:39
◼
►
you're not going to care that it takes five minutes longer totally a i think i
[TS]
02:07:44
◼
►
also saw something similar with the Tesla thing where it can its program
[TS]
02:07:51
◼
►
that it could maybe go i think five miles over the limit or something like
[TS]
02:07:54
◼
►
based on where it is not sure I may be making that I'll but I i thought i read
[TS]
02:07:58
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something about that and then of course if you if you need to go faster there's
[TS]
02:08:02
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►
the flying car that they had at CES to the scary quadcopter with the person in
[TS]
02:08:10
◼
►
did you see that no I did not oh yeah that's the was like a human-sized drone
[TS]
02:08:15
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►
so great so we got that to look forward to that the one thing talking to people
[TS]
02:08:21
◼
►
Mercedes as they were very the you know it's a they are very confident in their
[TS]
02:08:29
◼
►
ability and that they're going to have world-class self-driving cars i'm anti
[TS]
02:08:32
◼
►
wrote in one that already was real the real deal but they're talking date they
[TS]
02:08:38
◼
►
divide this the stages of self-driving cars in like four levels and like level
[TS]
02:08:42
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one is like the stuff that we already have you can get on the market today
[TS]
02:08:46
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►
where you can like set your car to maintain distance from the car in front
[TS]
02:08:49
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of it and that staying you know
[TS]
02:08:51
◼
►
and that Tesla has like a feature would net you know you can turn on the thing
[TS]
02:08:54
◼
►
and it'll it'll do the highway driving for you and that but part of stage one
[TS]
02:09:01
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is that stage 1 means you still have a human driver who's who is expected to be
[TS]
02:09:06
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able to take over the control of the car in an instant like hands ready to take
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over at all times and that's where the industry is today in terms of what's on
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02:09:16
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the market and that they were absolutely it was I guess they considered almost
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02:09:20
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seemingly this wasn't what they said but I could read between the lines it seemed
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02:09:24
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like they were angry and it was like a setback to the industry that when Tesla
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02:09:29
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first made this feature available that jackasses were setting up GoPros and
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02:09:32
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showing themselves like reading the newspaper father car drove there was a
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02:09:37
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guy who got in the backseat of his Tesla while it was on like a highway in
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02:09:42
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California and that it's so that's not that's not
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02:09:46
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you're not supposed to do that and it somebody's going to do that in a
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disaster you know they're going to have a catastrophic accident because of it
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02:09:54
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and it's going to be you know the fear is it's going to make people say we
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should ban self-driving cars before they even get a chance to to to do it but who
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would do that
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what kind of yeah and it really is funny it's like so it's just like some random
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02:10:11
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yahoo with a with a Tesla is going to ruin this for everybody
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yeah i think if you go on youtube and search like test fail you'll find some
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people who were very surprised by what they were recording but yeah I mean
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02:10:27
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that's it's interesting and and I'm sure we've seen other tech example that means
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02:10:33
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it's not too dissimilar from what we're seeing with Airbnb and uber where you
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02:10:39
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know there's the company that wants to kind of skirt the way that things have
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always been and then reality which will fit somewhere in the middle
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yeah i just think bottom line for apple is that until they get to their car
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comes out which is it even if everything goes swimmingly it's going to be you
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02:10:54
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know 2020-21 something like that i think i don't i don't see how they can get it
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out before 2020 but who knows but it even if it if I'm wrong it's not going
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to be that much
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earlier until then I don't see how they can do anything to create like a totally
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02:11:11
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grossly inflated the revenue of the company right like watches and and other
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02:11:19
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things that they could do an interview either watches a good business but like
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02:11:22
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you said like a billion here in a billionaire doesn't move the line for
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02:11:25
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Apple very much right unless that's the kind of thing where almost everyone
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02:11:29
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within iphone gets 12 but then still smaller than the iphone it's still in
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02:11:35
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its basically accessories available but i think that this i think that the wall
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02:11:39
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street's desire for apple to do that is just magical thinking and I think it's
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good as somebody who wants the company to continue doing good work
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02:11:47
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it's good that they're a by all appearances are not obsessed with
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02:11:51
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finding another iphone you know that I think that they knew going into it that
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02:11:55
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the watch was not going to be like the iphone and they did it anyway and I
[TS]
02:11:59
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think that's as it should be i think it's you know the the the phone is like
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02:12:02
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a once-in-a-generation opportunity
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yeah I don't think anything can be like the iphone at least in the next you know
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02:12:10
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it at least knowing what we know today about the world i don't think there's
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02:12:15
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going to be another product that is like the iphone for apple right it's serious
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02:12:19
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it's just a perfect storm of everything you know that it's just device that
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02:12:23
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everybody wants one and that you know they have engineering advantages they
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02:12:28
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were at you know just couldn't the prices hit in the right you know
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02:12:32
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all right though right though right right that nobody even knows what
[TS]
02:12:35
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they're really paying for it and they just be industry just keeps finding new
[TS]
02:12:39
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ways to further obfuscate just how much you're paying
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02:12:41
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yeah I love it when you tell somebody that like a like if you just buy a
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02:12:47
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no-contract iphone that it's you know eight or nine hundred dollars and
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02:12:50
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they're like well I would never pay that debt that they have an iphone like using
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02:12:55
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tells me you're paying it anything else that's good i think all right
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02:13:01
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dan frommer at court sets qz com out i'll make sure to throw a couple links
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02:13:07
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to your CES stuff i didn't i didn't do much so often you i'll send you what i
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02:13:11
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did but uh which was nice
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02:13:15
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it's always good talking to ya from belmont twitter from dome on Twitter and
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02:13:20
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city notes . khou.com oh
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