The Talk Show

00:00:00 ◼   ► I understand you know I realized that record-breaking profits alone does not [TS]

00:00:04 ◼   ► mean anything it's you know all about growth but it the most profitable [TS]

00:00:08 ◼   ► quarter that any any corporation has ever had in the history of corporations [TS]

00:00:13 ◼   ► and look at this stock dived and yes I understand there are some reasons for [TS]

00:00:19 ◼   ► that but it still there's some hyperbole [TS]

00:00:24 ◼   ► yeah some hysteria i should say hysteria involved and then in the aftermath of it [TS]

00:00:31 ◼   ► and you know I don't know what the leak and what's not but you know trying to [TS]

00:00:34 ◼   ► you know steer the narrative another way out now that all the rumors come up [TS]

00:00:39 ◼   ► pilot out of the woodwork you know about the bright rosy future that right yeah [TS]

00:00:45 ◼   ► but the converse and very many varied interests of Apple yeah right and one of [TS]

00:00:49 ◼   ► them is that today it's all over the place i forget who started it but that [TS]

00:00:53 ◼   ► Apple is has quietly put together like a 200-person team working on on VR right [TS]

00:01:00 ◼   ► and the part that makes me roll my eyes is it of course they have people were a [TS]

00:01:07 ◼   ► lot of people working on VR love what if the only thing that would be shocking [TS]

00:01:12 ◼   ► what would be truly shocking and would be like to me cause for alarm would be [TS]

00:01:16 ◼   ► if a report came out that said nobody with an apple is working on radar or [TS]

00:01:20 ◼   ► upset no plans for bi to fix we r is trash [TS]

00:01:24 ◼   ► it's just one guy named Dave works on the cinema display team right [TS]

00:01:29 ◼   ► when do you think this be i think it's kinda cool yeah it's like one guy named [TS]

00:01:34 ◼   ► Dave who's sort of jury-rig something with it either of those cardboard boxes [TS]

00:01:38 ◼   ► right yeah that would be shocking the fact that their that they're looking at [TS]

00:01:43 ◼   ► this is that this is treated as news really really yeah i actually think that [TS]

00:01:50 ◼   ► was from the ft at the beginning of the the story itself was none as you [TS]

00:01:59 ◼   ► mentioned 12 shocking i mean it did what they got going on there is there's a [TS]

00:02:03 ◼   ► bunch of people working out the our apple takes it fairly seriously in terms [TS]

00:02:07 ◼   ► of like hey we should explore this and that's pretty standard it's par for the [TS]

00:02:12 ◼   ► course any major [TS]

00:02:13 ◼   ► big technological kind of you know invention or or or infusion of love the [TS]

00:02:20 ◼   ► new tech into it industry you've got a better corporation as big as apple [TS]

00:02:24 ◼   ► doesn't matter what their philosophies are they're going to at least the [TS]

00:02:26 ◼   ► experiment with it and play with it and see if it fits within their milieu you [TS]

00:02:30 ◼   ► know right in the way that you could have written the same thing about [TS]

00:02:33 ◼   ► touchscreens five six maybe even 10 years before the iphone came out even [TS]

00:02:38 ◼   ► get a word you know investigating trying to see if they could you know is there a [TS]

00:02:43 ◼   ► product to be made out of this [TS]

00:02:44 ◼   ► yeah exactly and tim bradshaw had that reported the FT and tim is usually [TS]

00:02:49 ◼   ► pretty well so our students up so i don't really doubt much in his report [TS]

00:02:53 ◼   ► but it you're right in the fact that it's like everybody treats it as like a [TS]

00:02:57 ◼   ► like a you know a Holy Grail moment and it's like yeah yeah sure I mean I can [TS]

00:03:03 ◼   ► tell you that I think it was maybe three years ago that I first heard Apple was [TS]

00:03:08 ◼   ► sort of like hiring a few people in like that the games industry and graphics [TS]

00:03:13 ◼   ► industries and sort of looking at vr maybe maybe two years ago and so it and [TS]

00:03:19 ◼   ► I you know nothing more than scuttlebutt so nothing really to report on and you [TS]

00:03:23 ◼   ► know who knows the temp you're like getting up a bunch of a triangulations [TS]

00:03:27 ◼   ► on that but i think it would be really silly to assume that they weren't [TS]

00:03:30 ◼   ► working on it but that would be the bigger thing [TS]

00:03:32 ◼   ► yeah and I'm not trying to say that temperatures original report is the one [TS]

00:03:36 ◼   ► that is saying that it's a shocker but it's just that the reaction no across [TS]

00:03:39 ◼   ► the yeah the web to it as wow I thought apple was done making new products high [TS]

00:03:46 ◼   ► yet [TS]

00:03:47 ◼   ► yes that actually that does seem to be the assumption in a lot of these stories [TS]

00:03:51 ◼   ► and you have to wonder it ended not just er but everytime right like every time I [TS]

00:03:55 ◼   ► was like a dual lens thing or rather be our thing or whatever or car thing and [TS]

00:04:00 ◼   ► it's like the assumption is always that you think the readers stupid enough to [TS]

00:04:05 ◼   ► believe that Apple was like done that was it [TS]

00:04:08 ◼   ► you know I mean for them and if never they're never going to release anything [TS]

00:04:12 ◼   ► different than the iphone ever again [TS]

00:04:14 ◼   ► you know right and the other part that gets me is the undercurrent and nobody [TS]

00:04:18 ◼   ► will quite come out and say it because if they came out and said it . blanket [TS]

00:04:21 ◼   ► would sound stupid but the the way that they react though is when something like [TS]

00:04:25 ◼   ► this comes out and it [TS]

00:04:26 ◼   ► eh i'm not gonna say pie in the sky but it's something that is almost certainly [TS]

00:04:31 ◼   ► years in the future from being the actual product on the market it's [TS]

00:04:35 ◼   ► exciting and a sign that maybe apples best days are ahead of it and then let's [TS]

00:04:40 ◼   ► just say that like it's some kind of VR driven thing comes out from apple in [TS]

00:04:45 ◼   ► 2017 2018 and then it comes out and then it only sells like two million units in [TS]

00:04:53 ◼   ► the first year and only quote unquote only makes you know 45 billion dollars [TS]

00:04:59 ◼   ► in revenue in the first then it is that it's died [TS]

00:05:03 ◼   ► it's not going to move the needle it . list is a failure and let's move on to [TS]

00:05:10 ◼   ► the next thing you know that it right when it it it's a vague notion it's [TS]

00:05:14 ◼   ► super exciting and then is an actual product it and and it isn't the biggest [TS]

00:05:20 ◼   ► thing that since the iphone then it's it's no good and as you see that all [TS]

00:05:24 ◼   ► week long in my opinion with the reaction people had to the watch right [TS]

00:05:28 ◼   ► and apples you know quarterly finances and perfect yeah and you make it [TS]

00:05:34 ◼   ► it is more anytime you get something get a concept that involves more gray and [TS]

00:05:40 ◼   ► more complexities it's going to be hard to either make it the narrative and it's [TS]

00:05:45 ◼   ► gonna be hard to convince people to want to buy into it because it's not as [TS]

00:05:48 ◼   ► exciting right is it's more about new ones you know it's talking to somebody [TS]

00:05:52 ◼   ► about the difference between two different jazz singers not the [TS]

00:05:56 ◼   ► difference between rock and roll and RB or rock and roll and classical music or [TS]

00:06:00 ◼   ► whatever you know there's more subtlety involved so if you get into sitting area [TS]

00:06:04 ◼   ► where Apple is a company that's made up of a bunch of really solid smaller [TS]

00:06:09 ◼   ► businesses and one massive business nobody wants that they want Apple to [TS]

00:06:14 ◼   ► have another blockbuster business like the iphone to it replaced the iphone [TS]

00:06:18 ◼   ► right you know that's that's the narrative currently anyway right [TS]

00:06:22 ◼   ► and it's does nothing that can be done to dismiss it mmm i am vr in particular [TS]

00:06:30 ◼   ► is it's it's an interesting thing to think about from Apple's perspective or [TS]

00:06:35 ◼   ► from someone who appreciates apples perspective because it could mean [TS]

00:06:38 ◼   ► anything [TS]

00:06:39 ◼   ► right right whereas like Apple is building a car that's pretty specific [TS]

00:06:44 ◼   ► it's we know what a glorious you know it's a pretty good and there's all sorts [TS]

00:06:48 ◼   ► of well how are they going to charge the you know if it's doing its in electric [TS]

00:06:51 ◼   ► how are they going to charge it and what kind of battery technology then there's [TS]

00:06:54 ◼   ► all sorts of you know details to be worked out but we still know that cars [TS]

00:06:57 ◼   ► where is the idea of Apple getting involved with VR it really could be any [TS]

00:07:02 ◼   ► or all of the various different things it could be something completely [TS]

00:07:04 ◼   ► entertainment driven like an extension of apple TV and it's for gaming and [TS]

00:07:09 ◼   ► stuff like that and that's a lot of you know I don't know what you saw at [TS]

00:07:13 ◼   ► Sunday's but i'm guessing at sundance in particular it's a lot of entertainment [TS]

00:07:16 ◼   ► in some way [TS]

00:07:17 ◼   ► yeah mostly mostly entertainment stuff there's some documentary stuff in and [TS]

00:07:22 ◼   ► large large majority of it is is based around sort of 3 360 photography and not [TS]

00:07:31 ◼   ► as much 3d environments yet although i did play in some 3d environments there [TS]

00:07:36 ◼   ► are some studios making stories you know telling stories in 3d environments which [TS]

00:07:41 ◼   ► is a whole nother thing the whole studio system or or content creation system for [TS]

00:07:46 ◼   ► PR but majority of it right now all film-based entertainment-based yeah well [TS]

00:07:51 ◼   ► the other thing that Apple could do that might be different than anything we've [TS]

00:07:55 ◼   ► seen so far is this could be something that is meant for you know being like a [TS]

00:07:59 ◼   ► display for the mac and it could be a way to get like you know some sort of [TS]

00:08:04 ◼   ► here 24 science fiction asst ii style super-wide display that is right in [TS]

00:08:10 ◼   ► front of you while you do you work with him [TS]

00:08:14 ◼   ► mhm yeah it could be I mean the VR so VR if you want to think about what Apple is [TS]

00:08:20 ◼   ► going to do and and how Apple might use er you have to sort of think about Matty [TS]

00:08:26 ◼   ► are in the macro for just a sec and the macro p vr right now the back row for bi [TS]

00:08:32 ◼   ► right now is you have two diverging pathways you have the people that are [TS]

00:08:37 ◼   ► really pushing the technology forward and doing the most advanced craziest [TS]

00:08:42 ◼   ► things you can think of and those to the VR headsets that are hooked up to a [TS]

00:08:45 ◼   ► powerful computer and this is all the stories that came out about oculus like [TS]

00:08:49 ◼   ► oh sure the oculus is 600 bucks which have a fifteen-dollar computer [TS]

00:08:53 ◼   ► to run it which is true and those that that's like the gamer segment you know [TS]

00:08:58 ◼   ► gamers game games and pornography have always driven technology forward right [TS]

00:09:02 ◼   ► like the internet computing power home video [TS]

00:09:06 ◼   ► yeah homevideo exactly a lot of those things have really been dripping off of [TS]

00:09:10 ◼   ► gamers and and pornography and that's you know it's neither here nor there i'm [TS]

00:09:15 ◼   ► not making any value judgments on either one of those [TS]

00:09:18 ◼   ► I'm just saying that's the reality of it so when you look at BR you look at [TS]

00:09:21 ◼   ► pornography and gamers that is going to be driven usually probably at least the [TS]

00:09:27 ◼   ► gaming segment by more powerful experiences driven by powerful computing [TS]

00:09:31 ◼   ► devices a desktop computer essentially that is powering your you know big [TS]

00:09:37 ◼   ► complex virtual experience whatever that may be whether it's a game or a communal [TS]

00:09:43 ◼   ► world where a bunch of people live in it like a snow crash type thing or whatever [TS]

00:09:48 ◼   ► that's all that branch so that's really one school of thought one branch of [TS]

00:09:52 ◼   ► exploration of ER the other half is the samsung gear vr right which is a headset [TS]

00:10:01 ◼   ► that you snap a phone into and it becomes a VR headset write it like a [TS]

00:10:06 ◼   ► plastic shell you in with a couple lenses in it [TS]

00:10:09 ◼   ► not much beyond the cardboard the google cardboard except that it's not made out [TS]

00:10:13 ◼   ► of cardboard and plastic and you snap your phone into it and it becomes a PR [TS]

00:10:18 ◼   ► headset and that mobility mobile VR experience is much more a mass-market [TS]

00:10:23 ◼   ► product like that's something you could like take on vacation and the here kid [TS]

00:10:28 ◼   ► plays with in the backseat or whatever you know and that that kind of [TS]

00:10:32 ◼   ► mass-market vr is the other branch and I feel that we won't really see anything [TS]

00:10:38 ◼   ► from Apple that's consumer-focused and told those branches converge until we [TS]

00:10:44 ◼   ► have a mobile platform that has enough power to power fairly robust VR [TS]

00:10:49 ◼   ► experiences that you can do without wires because I just don't see an apple [TS]

00:10:55 ◼   ► headset with a bunch of wires connected to a big computer it's just not it's not [TS]

00:10:59 ◼   ► the kind of company they are anymore you know that make sense yeah it does make [TS]

00:11:04 ◼   ► sense [TS]

00:11:04 ◼   ► it's intriguing to think about re-open I wonder if the the route to get there [TS]

00:11:12 ◼   ► without wires isn't necessarily it would still involve having I'm i can only [TS]

00:11:18 ◼   ► assume the GPU in the headset [TS]

00:11:21 ◼   ► it's just that waiting for like the you know a 12 or 813 system-on-a-chip where [TS]

00:11:27 ◼   ► there's this insane graphics processor on it you know super low power low [TS]

00:11:32 ◼   ► weight low heat chip that it can also be sold at a very consumer II sort of price [TS]

00:11:38 ◼   ► mmm yeah and so the question is whether or not we see anything in between those [TS]

00:11:43 ◼   ► two products from apple right right yeah so we're um maybe they do really [TS]

00:11:47 ◼   ► something where it is capable and and you know shows off what it can do and [TS]

00:11:51 ◼   ► it's like listen be one and then you know me too maybe oh look there's no [TS]

00:11:55 ◼   ► cable anymore or whatever but i mean i think that the processor in the ipad pro [TS]

00:11:59 ◼   ► if you can get that into a scenario where you have like a you know an [TS]

00:12:03 ◼   ► 8-ounce battery or whatever that that fits in a headset and can power that for [TS]

00:12:07 ◼   ► 45 hours 46 hours i don't know that seems like a pretty powerful little [TS]

00:12:12 ◼   ► utility you know you know yeah I don't know it's you know is it entertainment [TS]

00:12:18 ◼   ► is at work I don't know it could be both [TS]

00:12:20 ◼   ► I don't know but I don't you know it's obviously a huge source of what if you [TS]

00:12:26 ◼   ► know right and i think i think a large portion of the pr industry is based off [TS]

00:12:31 ◼   ► of what it's at the moment because not only is there are not enough consumer [TS]

00:12:35 ◼   ► end . i mean the oculus just shipped its it's sort of like retail unit and I'm [TS]

00:12:40 ◼   ► not ship but rather but open pre-orders for right they got you know thousands of [TS]

00:12:44 ◼   ► pre-orders but in until that hits there really is a very very very tiny amount [TS]

00:12:49 ◼   ► of people that can even experiment with a a decent VR headset and diamond [TS]

00:12:54 ◼   ► there's a long way to go before there are enough consumer end points for Apple [TS]

00:12:59 ◼   ► to even consider you know kind of releasing a product in that field I mean [TS]

00:13:03 ◼   ► everybody's got a wrist like everybody needs a phone you know I mean like this [TS]

00:13:07 ◼   ► is just not that need in the BR yet but [TS]

00:13:12 ◼   ► I i want i don't know I I feel like it it's too hard to figure out what they're [TS]

00:13:20 ◼   ► doing with the butt of course they're working on it could be interesting to be [TS]

00:13:24 ◼   ► funny if it was it occurred to me that would be funny if it was part of the [TS]

00:13:29 ◼   ► part of the car [TS]

00:13:32 ◼   ► yeah yeah that would be interesting wouldn't it and I mean that honestly [TS]

00:13:38 ◼   ► augmented reality which many people do lump in with virtual reality because it [TS]

00:13:43 ◼   ► has some similar characteristics is I think that's a given on the car I I [TS]

00:13:49 ◼   ► can't see how Apple releases a quote-unquote car of the future [TS]

00:13:52 ◼   ► according to apple and doesn't include the ability to overlay information on [TS]

00:13:58 ◼   ► your view you know man and every other car makers that have been doing versions [TS]

00:14:03 ◼   ► of that for for almost a decade an hour or more with like your speed or like [TS]

00:14:08 ◼   ► left turn right turn or even a traffic warning or whatever you know HUD like [TS]

00:14:12 ◼   ► Mercedes does that BMW design some of their cars so imagine like a of live map [TS]

00:14:19 ◼   ► display that shows you exactly which turns to make overlaid on the street [TS]

00:14:23 ◼   ► itself you know so it's not distracting it Maps one-to-one with the streets not [TS]

00:14:27 ◼   ► something that you're looking at and then looking back at the street and [TS]

00:14:30 ◼   ► looking at your windshield and backgrounds straight you know there's [TS]

00:14:33 ◼   ► lots of really cool opportunities i think if they would be crazy not to [TS]

00:14:36 ◼   ► ships or something like that together you know [TS]

00:14:39 ◼   ► yeah that's exactly the sort of thing that Apple gets right you know I i think [TS]

00:14:45 ◼   ► that it i don't think there's any doubt whatsoever that that the future [TS]

00:14:49 ◼   ► turn-by-turn directions is a in the actual view you get out of the car not [TS]

00:14:56 ◼   ► moving not secondary in the same way that part of the magic of the iphone [TS]

00:15:01 ◼   ► compared to the GUI computers that came before it was the direct manipulation [TS]

00:15:06 ◼   ► that there you're not moving the pointer to click a button you're just clicking [TS]

00:15:09 ◼   ► the button with your finger [TS]

00:15:11 ◼   ► yeah the same line and and it there's it makes sense that that's better that it's [TS]

00:15:16 ◼   ► but I think feel like the advantages of it aren't even in a way that makes sense [TS]

00:15:20 ◼   ► there in at like a lower-level part of your brain [TS]

00:15:24 ◼   ► that it wasn't so much cognitively unburden because there's a level of [TS]

00:15:28 ◼   ► abstraction that's gone same way that it will be with whether it's directions or [TS]

00:15:33 ◼   ► whatever else you want like just show me you know show me restaurants that are [TS]

00:15:37 ◼   ► open and they highlight in the actual field of view as you drive by them stuff [TS]

00:15:41 ◼   ► like right or or just a little indication that place is open or closed [TS]

00:15:45 ◼   ► at this at nine o'clock as you drive by [TS]

00:15:48 ◼   ► mhm yeah and one of the things I like to do when I think about the possibilities [TS]

00:15:54 ◼   ► like this this is really kind of silly it's just that the dumb device but i [TS]

00:15:58 ◼   ► like to seriously think like can I imagine them announcing this onstage [TS]

00:16:02 ◼   ► right I couldn't how how would I see them pitching it and yeah this is not [TS]

00:16:07 ◼   ► like it's not hyper original or anything but if you imagine somebody like you [TS]

00:16:11 ◼   ► know shoulder onstage introducing the car and he goes you know any saying like [TS]

00:16:16 ◼   ► look you know there's so many accidents caused by people looking down at their [TS]

00:16:20 ◼   ► phones texting and driving or look even just looking for directions even if it's [TS]

00:16:24 ◼   ► something that's allowed by the state or federal government's we still know it's [TS]

00:16:28 ◼   ► not safe and yet we do it anyway because we have to we feel we have we need the [TS]

00:16:32 ◼   ► directions are we need the information but now you don't have to you know now [TS]

00:16:37 ◼   ► here's here's how we at Apple felt by working together with hardware and [TS]

00:16:42 ◼   ► software manufacturers and everything working as one big unit here's how it [TS]

00:16:46 ◼   ► could improve your life blah blah right and it's just like if you imagine that [TS]

00:16:49 ◼   ► it seems like an easy sell it's like yeah i could sell that you know and it [TS]

00:16:54 ◼   ► seems silly enough to think that that's a part of it [TS]

00:16:56 ◼   ► yeah yeah so I almost by i really do think and it comes to it's an old Steve [TS]

00:17:02 ◼   ► Jobs line but that the whole argument about whether or not [TS]

00:17:05 ◼   ► anything in particular I mean he famously I think he said this to the [TS]

00:17:08 ◼   ► dropbox kids but you know is this a technology or is it a product and you [TS]

00:17:14 ◼   ► know other thing he's he you know repeated many times is that you [TS]

00:17:18 ◼   ► the only way he knows that makes it a great product is to start with the idea [TS]

00:17:21 ◼   ► for the product and then work backwards and find the technology to make it [TS]

00:17:25 ◼   ► realistic not to start with wow we've got this amazing technology right let's [TS]

00:17:30 ◼   ► figure out a way to turn this into a product we have to me where [TS]

00:17:35 ◼   ► yeah and not to like put oculus rift down but to me oculus rift is that type [TS]

00:17:40 ◼   ► of product at this at this point and i know they have great people working on [TS]

00:17:44 ◼   ► it and I know you know it that they could make that happen and it's the sort [TS]

00:17:50 ◼   ► of thing where maybe the technology itself is so standalone that it's in [TS]

00:17:54 ◼   ► this case like with the display which is effectively what it is it's just display [TS]

00:17:57 ◼   ► maybe you can make that work but with Apple it's never gonna be that way and I [TS]

00:18:02 ◼   ► could see that that that the team that they have working isn't even working on [TS]

00:18:06 ◼   ► one specific thing but you know three four five different things [TS]

00:18:09 ◼   ► no well I mean think one of the reasons that oculus sold to facebook at [TS]

00:18:13 ◼   ► facebook.com/ them and that was a mutually agreeable thing between them is [TS]

00:18:17 ◼   ► that is they looked at it and they realized that oh shit we're gonna have [TS]

00:18:20 ◼   ► to spend a bunch of money trying to get this platform essentially hardware [TS]

00:18:26 ◼   ► platform up and running and out to people before we even start creating [TS]

00:18:31 ◼   ► things on it and so they they thought hmm how can we remove the the worry [TS]

00:18:36 ◼   ► about having to fund a very expensive hardware manufacturing phase and then [TS]

00:18:43 ◼   ► move right into what we think will actually be the money which is the [TS]

00:18:47 ◼   ► world's right the things that you create on top of it because I talked to an [TS]

00:18:53 ◼   ► array whose CEO of oculus and he you know he was a it was very involved in [TS]

00:19:01 ◼   ► gaming for some time he was involved in like Sony's or tony bought it but their [TS]

00:19:05 ◼   ► PlayStation gaming streaming service and whatnot so it's not it's not a dummy he [TS]

00:19:09 ◼   ► knows that the the services on top so on top of VR are where people are going to [TS]

00:19:15 ◼   ► make their money and it terms of oculus they don't have to worry now about how [TS]

00:19:21 ◼   ► are we gonna sell these things at a affordable price . even said that oculus [TS]

00:19:26 ◼   ► rifts as they are there mountains selling really close to cost unit 4 600 [TS]

00:19:31 ◼   ► bucks or whatever and instead they can get stuff out there and see what people [TS]

00:19:35 ◼   ► build and then you know those social experiences and games and whatever else [TS]

00:19:41 ◼   ► that gets built on top of them [TS]

00:19:43 ◼   ► that's what will actually take off and be a thing and so right now this it [TS]

00:19:47 ◼   ► doesn't make any sense for anyone [TS]

00:19:49 ◼   ► to go oh let's get into hardware unless they're already in the business of [TS]

00:19:53 ◼   ► manufacturing commodity hardware because that's what it is you know it's gonna [TS]

00:19:57 ◼   ► you should be able to buy a VR headset for fifty bucks and put it in your bag [TS]

00:20:02 ◼   ► and you'll be able to buy better watch it do you know better stuff and whatnot [TS]

00:20:06 ◼   ► but you should be able to buy one for 50 bucks shove it in your bag and haven't [TS]

00:20:11 ◼   ► hooked up to your your mobile phone wirelessly and it'll be powered by the [TS]

00:20:15 ◼   ► internal GPU and it will transport you to whatever word you want mobile on a [TS]

00:20:20 ◼   ► global basis and until they're there and the content is there nobody's gonna make [TS]

00:20:26 ◼   ► any money at it you know yeah here's another rumor of the week or at least [TS]

00:20:32 ◼   ► remember the day is is a story of Bloomberg cat today that Apple is [TS]

00:20:39 ◼   ► working on wireless charging em moving and I laughs again because it is the [TS]

00:20:50 ◼   ► dawn of time everybody's wanted to charge with the wire [TS]

00:20:55 ◼   ► of course they're working on wireless charging and you know I guess the news [TS]

00:21:00 ◼   ► the news angle of it is that according to the story of Bloomberg that it might [TS]

00:21:04 ◼   ► be ready as early as $MONTH 2017 right on which is a little weird because it [TS]

00:21:11 ◼   ► doesn't really match up with the tick-tock schedule of iphones you know [TS]

00:21:16 ◼   ► that it seems more likely to me that it if it doesn't happen this year in the [TS]

00:21:22 ◼   ► iphone 7 it's probably not going to happen till 2018 and the iphone 8 on the [TS]

00:21:29 ◼   ► assumption that this year's iphone 7 will be followed by the iphone 7s next [TS]

00:21:34 ◼   ► year but maybe not you know in a way that like things like touch ID appeared [TS]

00:21:39 ◼   ► in the next year you know and that it may be the wireless charging wouldn't [TS]

00:21:44 ◼   ► replace the Lightning port it would be just something that it just magically [TS]

00:21:47 ◼   ► happens when you connect a wire you know something on the back of the phone so [TS]

00:21:50 ◼   ► it's possible that it could happen in the next year but overall the hope that [TS]

00:21:55 ◼   ► the basic ID and you know it is great i hope it happens but I just can't I just [TS]

00:22:01 ◼   ► can't [TS]

00:22:02 ◼   ► can't make my head understand the excited reaction that people have to [TS]

00:22:06 ◼   ► this to this report [TS]

00:22:08 ◼   ► you know what I think it is in i mean i think this is partially a construct [TS]

00:22:12 ◼   ► construct of the media but it is something Apple is probably you know I [TS]

00:22:16 ◼   ► don't hesitate to use the word blame but they have responsibility for and that's [TS]

00:22:20 ◼   ► that they do execute on things right so that there's been wireless charging [TS]

00:22:24 ◼   ► android phones for some time this Chi wireless standard whatever it is it's [TS]

00:22:28 ◼   ► okay i have a couple android phones that charge that way and it does work it [TS]

00:22:32 ◼   ► works fine [TS]

00:22:33 ◼   ► you know you put it on a little pad charges and whatnot but it's not really [TS]

00:22:37 ◼   ► wireless you still have a pad with the wire attached and the only thing you're [TS]

00:22:40 ◼   ► doing is just not physically plugging it in right yeah so the execution of [TS]

00:22:45 ◼   ► wireless charging in terms of all I can stand near my charger and it when it [TS]

00:22:51 ◼   ► charges or i can be you know within 10 feet of the charger and my phone will [TS]

00:22:55 ◼   ► charge it'll probably much closer than that in reality but you know that that I [TS]

00:23:00 ◼   ► think that execution thing is what gets people excited about apple and it's [TS]

00:23:03 ◼   ► where I can sort of forgive people for going yes finally apples going to do it [TS]

00:23:07 ◼   ► is because they know that if Apple does it [TS]

00:23:10 ◼   ► there's at least some people bitch about the way that Apple execute on stuff a [TS]

00:23:13 ◼   ► lot right because they do claim a lot about the things they claim thing that [TS]

00:23:19 ◼   ► things they do are really good and awesome thats that's their fault i guess [TS]

00:23:23 ◼   ► you could call it but people just expect the level of execution out of them so [TS]

00:23:28 ◼   ► when when they hear the apples going to do X or Y they're like always gonna [TS]

00:23:32 ◼   ► probably be a really good xry well then it's also human nature it's actually [TS]

00:23:36 ◼   ► easier to criticize something that's sort of in the uncanny valley between [TS]

00:23:40 ◼   ► its way to definitely way better than a pile of shit but it's not great then [TS]

00:23:45 ◼   ► it's really it's a lot easier to figure out exactly what's wrong brand right on [TS]

00:23:51 ◼   ► it when a product is really truly just a garbage product it's actually harder to [TS]

00:23:57 ◼   ► say exactly what's wrong with it because it's you don't even know where to start [TS]

00:24:01 ◼   ► I mean it really true i mean i know it sounds over and apple at their worst [TS]

00:24:06 ◼   ► usually is the has a couple of glaring problems that stick out like sore [TS]

00:24:12 ◼   ► throughout thumbs not the the ladies or sore [TS]

00:24:15 ◼   ► battery pack cups right like the test as an example of a product that i would [TS]

00:24:19 ◼   ► consider total dog shit would be like the original HTC android phone from 2008 [TS]

00:24:27 ◼   ► little oh yeah the the one day and the one yeah right what i call it the nexus [TS]

00:24:32 ◼   ► one [TS]

00:24:33 ◼   ► yeah and it was wasn't Brown I don't know maybe I'm confusing they're [TS]

00:24:38 ◼   ► browning gray maybe I don't need a couple of colors but but it was it [TS]

00:24:42 ◼   ► really just the only way it made any sense at all is if you knew as a good [TS]

00:24:47 ◼   ► designer that Android had started life and until like the iphone was unveiled a [TS]

00:24:52 ◼   ► year before it was sort of a blackberry style operating system with an up-down [TS]

00:24:56 ◼   ► left-right input method and without a touch screen and then they had this [TS]

00:25:02 ◼   ► device that was like half and half [TS]

00:25:04 ◼   ► we're all sorts of stuff like text editing all had to be done up down left [TS]

00:25:08 ◼   ► right right and that with no touch at all and then other things they tried to [TS]

00:25:13 ◼   ► glom on it was it was so bad that it was hard to criticize yeah in that context [TS]

00:25:18 ◼   ► you like it is pretty good [TS]

00:25:20 ◼   ► it compares to look at a year ago but yeah I do think there's at a daring [TS]

00:25:25 ◼   ► fireball reader African who it is [TS]

00:25:26 ◼   ► I apologize if you listen to the show to who sent me a really great note i really [TS]

00:25:30 ◼   ► appreciated that I was I think when I link to something a few weeks ago that [TS]

00:25:35 ◼   ► was put on quote using wireless charging took me to task for it because it wasn't [TS]

00:25:39 ◼   ► wireless at all and as an example so for example Apple watch does not charge [TS]

00:25:43 ◼   ► wirelessly you definitely need a wire and it needs to be in physical contact [TS]

00:25:49 ◼   ► it's just charges it is a magnetic adapter and if you actually look at [TS]

00:25:53 ◼   ► apple's marketing for the Apple watch Apple never claims that Apple watch [TS]

00:25:57 ◼   ► charges wirelessly like that's not wireless and the end you know for [TS]

00:26:02 ◼   ► example if your networking work that way you would definitely not call it [TS]

00:26:07 ◼   ► wireless networking like if you to get on your Wi-Fi you had to magnetically [TS]

00:26:11 ◼   ► connect your your macbook to your router that might be better than plugging and [TS]

00:26:16 ◼   ► unplugging in the ethernet adapter you know magnetic would be better than that [TS]

00:26:22 ◼   ► but it's definitely not wireless wireless is like Wi-Fi [TS]

00:26:25 ◼   ► if you're in the room you've got the network like and so if that is what [TS]

00:26:30 ◼   ► Apple's working on for charging that would be actually pretty amazing [TS]

00:26:33 ◼   ► mhm yeah and they have there's a lot of this kind of loaded topic this whole [TS]

00:26:38 ◼   ► wireless charging thing because there's a lot of arguments about the physics [TS]

00:26:42 ◼   ► right all right just like there's a lot of people that say the physics of it [TS]

00:26:45 ◼   ► just doesn't make sense because of the power loss over distance and then also [TS]

00:26:50 ◼   ► there's some you know some safe basic safety concerns as well because you're [TS]

00:26:53 ◼   ► sending a relatively high powered radio signal to transmit this power in this [TS]

00:27:00 ◼   ► energy from your charging device to the phone but there's a startup called you [TS]

00:27:04 ◼   ► beam which was founded by this woman named Meredith parody and it's probably [TS]

00:27:10 ◼   ► the poster child for a huge promise and like big big attention spike and [TS]

00:27:17 ◼   ► everybody's thinking hey this is revolutionary if it actually shipped [TS]

00:27:20 ◼   ► this way and then also the cross the cross section of people who are like [TS]

00:27:25 ◼   ► this is BS and how can this actually work the physics don't work and whatnot [TS]

00:27:30 ◼   ► you know and there's there's lots of question marks until they actually ship [TS]

00:27:33 ◼   ► a product they're getting ready this year to ship a case that supposedly will [TS]

00:27:37 ◼   ► charge this way wirelessly and so I think that will be an interesting proof [TS]

00:27:41 ◼   ► of concept that ships and they are able to prove that it does then all the [TS]

00:27:45 ◼   ► sudden you know every manufacturer is going to have to have it built in [TS]

00:27:49 ◼   ► yeah and you know somebody will probably end up acquiring you beam or whatever [TS]

00:27:53 ◼   ► and if Apple's working on an internally and they ship it you know have sure as [TS]

00:27:57 ◼   ► heck samsung or somebody will try to acquire you beam so that they can catch [TS]

00:28:01 ◼   ► up on that front [TS]

00:28:02 ◼   ► yeah there's you know it does sound good too good to be true i mean but I eyes I [TS]

00:28:08 ◼   ► struggled with the later physics courses in college so I i I really don't want to [TS]

00:28:12 ◼   ► pass judgment on ya the basic layman's argument that you laid out that this is [TS]

00:28:17 ◼   ► not physically possible or not within you know a reasonable degree of [TS]

00:28:22 ◼   ► efficiency makes sense to me but on the other hand you know I don't know why [TS]

00:28:27 ◼   ► fight honestly still doesn't make much sense to me that it works [TS]

00:28:31 ◼   ► yes Wi-Fi they're exactly like ethernet I totally understand how ethernet works [TS]

00:28:36 ◼   ► and right [TS]

00:28:36 ◼   ► and you know the whole idea that as many people as you can get on a Wi-Fi network [TS]

00:28:42 ◼   ► can get on Wi-Fi network and that it all works and everybody gets the right [TS]

00:28:46 ◼   ► packets it's right still seems a little too good to be true to me so if they [TS]

00:28:50 ◼   ► could make Wi-Fi work starting in the late nineties i don't know maybe [TS]

00:28:53 ◼   ► wireless charging you know I'm not ruling it out [TS]

00:28:56 ◼   ► yeah it'll be like the gods must be crazy moment like you know the soda can [TS]

00:29:00 ◼   ► fall for this guy and everybody else p like oh my god no everything has to have [TS]

00:29:03 ◼   ► this i mean i i'm the same way I don't know you know I don't know jack about [TS]

00:29:08 ◼   ► the physics of it i just talked to smart people and that's what they tell me [TS]

00:29:11 ◼   ► so it'll be it'll be very very interesting to see what happens when and [TS]

00:29:16 ◼   ► if it ships and it works because i think it will be a that's probably going to be [TS]

00:29:20 ◼   ► a watershed moment for a lot of Technology because they were all the [TS]

00:29:23 ◼   ► technologies that would work pretty great if you had a continuous source of [TS]

00:29:28 ◼   ► power that was not attached by a wire and that and that battery you know is [TS]

00:29:35 ◼   ► not enough to support so it's just the beginning of a lot of really cool [TS]

00:29:38 ◼   ► technologies if if that's the case is like let's say you could stand within 20 [TS]

00:29:43 ◼   ► feet of your car and it would charge everything that your electronic devices [TS]

00:29:46 ◼   ► your head on you you know [TS]

00:29:49 ◼   ► yeah lots of interesting possibilities there so I'm glad about it but [TS]

00:29:52 ◼   ► cautiously optimistic is the the right phrase i think right all you have to do [TS]

00:29:56 ◼   ► is get in your car and your phone and watch are already charging right right [TS]

00:30:03 ◼   ► you didn't do anything you just got in and turn on the car and started going to [TS]

00:30:06 ◼   ► work [TS]

00:30:07 ◼   ► you're thinking what I want to listen to it maybe that's the only thing you're [TS]

00:30:10 ◼   ► paying attention to because the car can drive itself and you're just trying to [TS]

00:30:15 ◼   ► figure out what how you want to entertain yourself on the way right [TS]

00:30:19 ◼   ► meantime you're without having to worry about it you're watching phone or [TS]

00:30:22 ◼   ► charging to have your way it's an interesting it's also very interesting [TS]

00:30:25 ◼   ► wait for Apple to get from the way one day a battery life kind of sucks for the [TS]

00:30:30 ◼   ► watch to to a couple of days of battery life without really changing the the [TS]

00:30:39 ◼   ► basic nature of batteries who because it's really more about making it so much [TS]

00:30:46 ◼   ► easier and convenient to sort of trickle charge throughout the day [TS]

00:30:49 ◼   ► listen yep exactly a nice way to sidestep dog because speaking of physics [TS]

00:30:55 ◼   ► right now there are a couple of physics problems that are essentially preventing [TS]

00:30:59 ◼   ► any progress in the battery Department like every company is spending millions [TS]

00:31:03 ◼   ► or billions of dollars if they have them in every big electronics company to try [TS]

00:31:07 ◼   ► and figure out the battery issue right the problem of how the capacity and [TS]

00:31:13 ◼   ► longevity of batteries but nobody's really able to make any huge progress [TS]

00:31:17 ◼   ► because there are some physics problems that I have not been solved yet and [TS]

00:31:22 ◼   ► everybody's trying to figure out what materials to use and like carbon [TS]

00:31:26 ◼   ► nanotubes and you know all kinds of other mechanics that try to make [TS]

00:31:31 ◼   ► batteries better but the fact of the matter is that there's not much you can [TS]

00:31:35 ◼   ► do right now and tell somebody figures out that some cracker hole in the world [TS]

00:31:41 ◼   ► is is there that wasn't there before and figures out how to either create a new [TS]

00:31:45 ◼   ► material or put materials to work in a new way so it if you can charge it just [TS]

00:31:52 ◼   ► like apples been doing with processor optimization and shape optimization for [TS]

00:31:56 ◼   ► years they've essentially been sidestepping this thing you know kind of [TS]

00:32:00 ◼   ► by making their stuff more efficient [TS]

00:32:03 ◼   ► it's a similar kind of thing so maybe we can't break through batteries but we can [TS]

00:32:06 ◼   ► charge them constantly throughout the day [TS]

00:32:08 ◼   ► yeah I do think I that's that's the main thing I take away from it but that's [TS]

00:32:13 ◼   ► sort of a big goal for the next 10 years [TS]

00:32:16 ◼   ► let me take a break and thank our first sponsored our good friends at [TS]

00:32:19 ◼   ► audible.com this these are the guys did their the audiobook people they have [TS]

00:32:25 ◼   ► over a hundred and eighty thousand audiobooks and spoken word audio [TS]

00:32:29 ◼   ► products and you can get a 30-day trial free trial at audible.com / talk show if [TS]

00:32:38 ◼   ► you want to listen to it audible has it they have audio books from virtually [TS]

00:32:42 ◼   ► every genre and you can get them anytime anywhere and you can listen to them on [TS]

00:32:48 ◼   ► your phone or tablet your computer most Kindles support it now even ipods you [TS]

00:32:53 ◼   ► can just sing come over the old-fashioned way and just have the [TS]

00:32:55 ◼   ► audio files right there on your iPod [TS]

00:32:57 ◼   ► they're great audio books if you're listening to I think this is why they [TS]

00:33:00 ◼   ► sponsor podcast if you're listening to podcast you know the advantage of having [TS]

00:33:05 ◼   ► long-form spoken word audio content audiobooks are a great way to add to the [TS]

00:33:12 ◼   ► playlist the listening you know what you have queued up for your commutes or your [TS]

00:33:16 ◼   ► flights road trips [TS]

00:33:18 ◼   ► hey I know for a fact just I without even doing any kind of research i know [TS]

00:33:23 ◼   ► tons and tons and tons of you who are listening to my voice right now we're [TS]

00:33:25 ◼   ► doing it on your daily commute and I know from how often you email me about [TS]

00:33:29 ◼   ► maybe trying to get more episodes of the talks about that i do that you need more [TS]

00:33:33 ◼   ► content while audiobooks are a great way to do that a lot of these days are [TS]

00:33:38 ◼   ► actually read by the author's themselves brings an extra dimension to the text [TS]

00:33:42 ◼   ► and when you sign up as an audible customer and you have a subscription you [TS]

00:33:49 ◼   ► can take risks and try new authors without regret because they have this [TS]

00:33:53 ◼   ► great listen guarantee if you start an audiobook and you don't like it you can [TS]

00:33:57 ◼   ► exchange it for another one for free so see and listen for yourself when you [TS]

00:34:01 ◼   ► begin your free 30-day trial you get your first audio book for free and [TS]

00:34:06 ◼   ► there's no stress no obligation you can cancel your membership at anytime [TS]

00:34:11 ◼   ► so once again go get that free trial at audible.com / talk show [TS]

00:34:16 ◼   ► usually they ask for like a recommendation i'll give you a [TS]

00:34:20 ◼   ► recommendation to a book i just finished and they do have it on audiobook it's [TS]

00:34:24 ◼   ► located dicks the man in the high tower which is the book I've read i have like [TS]

00:34:30 ◼   ► located is one of the guys who have been a fan of since I was a teenager but [TS]

00:34:33 ◼   ► never like finished reading everything he had written and I remember I had a [TS]

00:34:39 ◼   ► friend in college who swore up and down that the the best philip k dick book [TS]

00:34:43 ◼   ► ever written was the man in the high tower and it was like the high praise [TS]

00:34:46 ◼   ► for that book that made me file it away it's like sometimes I'm stupid like that [TS]

00:34:49 ◼   ► night there's books that i really want to read that I if I'm really looking [TS]

00:34:53 ◼   ► forward to it i save it and then you know eventually I'm gonna die and let's [TS]

00:34:58 ◼   ► go on read the basic gist of the man in the high tower is what if what if the [TS]

00:35:03 ◼   ► united states have never gotten involved with world war two and Germany and Japan [TS]

00:35:07 ◼   ► at one [TS]

00:35:08 ◼   ► and then carved up a more-or-less defenseless united states that woke up [TS]

00:35:12 ◼   ► too late to the threat takes place like in the early sixties and what pushed me [TS]

00:35:17 ◼   ► to read it is that I am I was about to netflix but it's amazon came out with a [TS]

00:35:24 ◼   ► TV series based on it and I wanted to read the book before i watch the show [TS]

00:35:27 ◼   ► and so I did and it was fantastic [TS]

00:35:30 ◼   ► so if you want a recommendation I would take get the get the audio book for the [TS]

00:35:34 ◼   ► man in the high tower never read that now I haven't read it I i know of it [TS]

00:35:40 ◼   ► i've read other filipino stuff but not that I'll put that on my deathbed list [TS]

00:35:45 ◼   ► yeah then I watched episode 1 of the Amazon show and I didn't like it at all [TS]

00:35:50 ◼   ► you're like maybe I should read this book yeah I don't know why I bet maybe I [TS]

00:35:55 ◼   ► have to give it out give another episode or two just to see but I i thought that [TS]

00:35:59 ◼   ► it was it just wasn't what I what I liked about the book but we'll see [TS]

00:36:08 ◼   ► so what else what else is going on huh [TS]

00:36:13 ◼   ► no lots going on right now i mean i think that there's this little right now [TS]

00:36:20 ◼   ► is sort of like a stretch of time where its earnings report after earnings [TS]

00:36:24 ◼   ► report and all the q10 like everybody figures out how the the big companies [TS]

00:36:27 ◼   ► did in the in q4 our fiscal year on whatever you want to call it and then [TS]

00:36:34 ◼   ► after this it starts like people started announcing stuff again you know they [TS]

00:36:39 ◼   ► kind of want to get their wave of how they did it they did good or whatever [TS]

00:36:42 ◼   ► facebook announced an enormous just an absolutely blockbuster quarter [TS]

00:36:47 ◼   ► yeah and everybody know in it [TS]

00:36:50 ◼   ► just everybody but seems unanimous to agree that that was about as good as [TS]

00:36:54 ◼   ► good as quarter as Facebook could have announced the terms of any metric that [TS]

00:36:59 ◼   ► their that they're tracking revenue and profit and active users whatever else [TS]

00:37:04 ◼   ► that it's just great [TS]

00:37:08 ◼   ► seems to be a very well-run company [TS]

00:37:11 ◼   ► yeah i think so i don't think they I think they know what their core [TS]

00:37:15 ◼   ► competencies are now and and are executing on those really well i think [TS]

00:37:20 ◼   ► Facebook is one of those companies that like almost everything it did during [TS]

00:37:24 ◼   ► $MONTH 2015 just worked like they I mean they had a few things here and there [TS]

00:37:28 ◼   ► were apps like individual spin-off apps that they release maybe didn't you set [TS]

00:37:33 ◼   ► the world on fire anything but they were still interesting experiments and just [TS]

00:37:36 ◼   ► almost everything they tried to do they did a really really good job with I mean [TS]

00:37:42 ◼   ► I think they had like up during i don't know if you saw it during like the [TS]

00:37:47 ◼   ► problem in France the terrorist attack in France they had this sort of safety [TS]

00:37:54 ◼   ► check [TS]

00:37:55 ◼   ► yeah feature they launched and that's indicative of something that only makes [TS]

00:37:59 ◼   ► sense for a platform on facebook scale like you literally say hey is your [TS]

00:38:04 ◼   ► family member ok [TS]

00:38:06 ◼   ► and of course they can check in on Facebook because of course they have an [TS]

00:38:08 ◼   ► account you know I mean with there's 1.59 billion people on Facebook every [TS]

00:38:15 ◼   ► month that's just every month right so maybe somebody has an account but [TS]

00:38:19 ◼   ► doesn't go and check in every month and it's in it's probably the several [TS]

00:38:22 ◼   ► billions that have an account so if you see that there's a terrorist attack Nico [TS]

00:38:27 ◼   ► you know I don't really like on my facebook but I'm gonna go on there and [TS]

00:38:29 ◼   ► see if anybody's ok you can see that safety check thing and see that your [TS]

00:38:33 ◼   ► loved one or friend has checked in safe [TS]

00:38:36 ◼   ► I mean that's a pretty impressive thing to a rollout and and execute well but [TS]

00:38:42 ◼   ► also the fact that they can even do it at all but it's feasible for them to do [TS]

00:38:45 ◼   ► so you know it speaks to the how enormous that platform is and how well [TS]

00:38:50 ◼   ► they've executed [TS]

00:38:52 ◼   ► I think it's crazy though and again I don't want to make this and invest [TS]

00:38:56 ◼   ► investor our Jenna but I i like thinking about and especially I think you're [TS]

00:39:03 ◼   ► right that the the holiday quarter both for especially for Apple but for [TS]

00:39:07 ◼   ► everybody is sort of like the biggest one because it's sort of the referendum [TS]

00:39:10 ◼   ► on the calendar year coming to a close [TS]

00:39:13 ◼   ► mom [TS]

00:39:15 ◼   ► I the fact that facebook is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of a hundred [TS]

00:39:20 ◼   ► nine it's me again i'm not a it an expert [TS]

00:39:26 ◼   ► I it just says the mean maybe people are a little too excited about facebook and [TS]

00:39:31 ◼   ► look where they're going [TS]

00:39:32 ◼   ► maybe not maybe not but it's that's a pretty high p/e ratio [TS]

00:39:37 ◼   ► whoo-hoo because i'm not sure if they've already got 1.5 billion active users [TS]

00:39:46 ◼   ► there's not there's not a lot of upside there in terms of how many more people [TS]

00:39:51 ◼   ► they can get using yeah because they're Delta is the amount of people that have [TS]

00:39:55 ◼   ► access to the internet versus how many people are already on facebook right [TS]

00:39:59 ◼   ► that's their growth delta right and it's that's not huge [TS]

00:40:02 ◼   ► it's there but it's not all the million you know only building people are not [TS]

00:40:06 ◼   ► i'm not on facebook so there [TS]

00:40:11 ◼   ► this is almost funny but it's like it's almost if you could pull it out a little [TS]

00:40:18 ◼   ► bit further it would get really dystopian because Facebook's growth [TS]

00:40:22 ◼   ► strategy currently is not get more people on facebook it's get more people [TS]

00:40:28 ◼   ► on the internet right which is pretty crazy when you think about it because [TS]

00:40:32 ◼   ► it's like clone people or birth people that can use our product right now [TS]

00:40:38 ◼   ► that's essentially their their strategy it's like if you know apple said all [TS]

00:40:42 ◼   ► we're going to create breeding farms that breed people who can use by more [TS]

00:40:47 ◼   ► iphones if they choose [TS]

00:40:48 ◼   ► yeah I've thought about this to that it's it's sort of like that it in google [TS]

00:40:53 ◼   ► is in a similar situation where Google is similarly a part of their growth [TS]

00:40:57 ◼   ► strategy is to get more people on the internet and that's why you see [TS]

00:41:00 ◼   ► companies like Facebook and Google launching these these programs like [TS]

00:41:04 ◼   ► google had the one where they had internet wireless internet router is [TS]

00:41:08 ◼   ► connected to balloon and they still haven't and I don't think they've [TS]

00:41:11 ◼   ► stopped it but that they're going to launch balloons around the world that [TS]

00:41:14 ◼   ► you know rain wireless networking down into areas that that that don't have [TS]

00:41:20 ◼   ► good internet access on [TS]

00:41:23 ◼   ► and again it's one of those things that you know just sort of circle back to the [TS]

00:41:27 ◼   ► magic of Wi-Fi that wireless solves that problem in a way that wired networking [TS]

00:41:31 ◼   ► never would you know and trying to get people when when most of the Western [TS]

00:41:35 ◼   ► world was first connected you know in a communications network it was the phone [TS]

00:41:40 ◼   ► network and the way that we did it was behind literally stringing copper wire [TS]

00:41:44 ◼   ► in and out of every room in every building in every house across multiple [TS]

00:41:50 ◼   ► continents which is not cost-effective you know like as much as it sounds like [TS]

00:41:55 ◼   ► science fiction idea to have these balloons floating over Africa that that [TS]

00:42:00 ◼   ► give people wireless networking it's it's actually just just look at the back [TS]

00:42:05 ◼   ► of the envelope it's a lot seems a lot easier and a lot more financially [TS]

00:42:08 ◼   ► feasible than straining cable to in everybody [TS]

00:42:11 ◼   ► uh-huh but again it's in their own interest like you said really did [TS]

00:42:16 ◼   ► it's getting more people on the internet is the only way that they can grow and [TS]

00:42:20 ◼   ► and the the . I'm getting to is that this strategy is sort of it's sort of [TS]

00:42:24 ◼   ► like the Catholic Church like you need to have a lot of babies [TS]

00:42:27 ◼   ► yeah how do we spread the religion have six or more babies we need that we need [TS]

00:42:33 ◼   ► to have as many children as possible so that they can be facebook and google [TS]

00:42:36 ◼   ► users 12 and 13 years [TS]

00:42:38 ◼   ► yeah make some new Catholics yeah right man how I don't know i mean i think that [TS]

00:42:46 ◼   ► there's there's plenty of opportunity there for people to do interesting [TS]

00:42:50 ◼   ► things with big big networks that are a really exciting but then you also the [TS]

00:42:56 ◼   ► other side of it they're half of it is in facebook is there conduit to the [TS]

00:43:01 ◼   ► internet right and so Facebook is not a non-profit right there not a an entity [TS]

00:43:09 ◼   ► that has no interests and it's not you know it's not a fault of theirs it just [TS]

00:43:13 ◼   ► is what it is right so there they have a definite desire to get people in [TS]

00:43:20 ◼   ► internet so that more people can use facebook but those people that come on [TS]

00:43:23 ◼   ► the internet are going to come into an internet that is hosted and and absorbed [TS]

00:43:28 ◼   ► by Facebook and [TS]

00:43:32 ◼   ► I gotta worry about that you know you gotta think like and I wonder what how [TS]

00:43:38 ◼   ► that could distort their view of the world [TS]

00:43:40 ◼   ► I mean people already talked about Facebook's new speed and how it presents [TS]

00:43:44 ◼   ► certain things or doesn't present other things to its users which is a [TS]

00:43:48 ◼   ► completely valid concern and you know hate facebook is probably trying to do [TS]

00:43:51 ◼   ► its best to make more people use it and that's flying but at the same time you [TS]

00:43:56 ◼   ► know what's the deal [TS]

00:43:57 ◼   ► like are we going to get a view of the world the developing world is going to [TS]

00:44:04 ◼   ► get a view of the larger world that is connected to through Facebook's lens and [TS]

00:44:09 ◼   ► is that a good thing isn't a bad thing it's probably somewhere in between [TS]

00:44:13 ◼   ► it's just a thing but it's sort of a creepy thing [TS]

00:44:16 ◼   ► yeah here's a question I got from a daring fireball reader i'll just read [TS]

00:44:22 ◼   ► I'm not gonna mention i think it's a reasonable question I I think it's the [TS]

00:44:25 ◼   ► wrong way to think about it so I'm not gonna use his name because you know but [TS]

00:44:29 ◼   ► it's here's the question i got this is a two days ago [TS]

00:44:33 ◼   ► do you think apples decision not to get into the social space will turn out to [TS]

00:44:36 ◼   ► be a mistake [TS]

00:44:37 ◼   ► facebook stock is up twelve percent today there are 1,000,000,000 iOS [TS]

00:44:41 ◼   ► devices at the very least why not an Instagram competitor they're already [TS]

00:44:46 ◼   ► storing photos that seems like a no-brainer to me if nothing else they [TS]

00:44:49 ◼   ► could slow down Facebook's growth a bit [TS]

00:44:51 ◼   ► Tim Cook didn't sound good yesterday can you only imagine the stresses under and [TS]

00:44:57 ◼   ► here's what i wrote back real quickly but i really started I think it's true i [TS]

00:45:00 ◼   ► think the worst thing Apple could do is chase after ideas just because they're [TS]

00:45:03 ◼   ► profitable that's the sort of thinking that led microsoft astray [TS]

00:45:07 ◼   ► Oh me and to me this was microsoft at it a day like circa the mid-nineteen [TS]

00:45:14 ◼   ► ninety's was they were making all this money and they had all this engineering [TS]

00:45:19 ◼   ► talent and everything was that was happening was happening on Windows [TS]

00:45:24 ◼   ► computers and that they would look at any idea that anybody came up with that [TS]

00:45:30 ◼   ► gained any sort of traction whether it was financial or just interest because [TS]

00:45:34 ◼   ► you know like net netscape for example was really making a lot of money but [TS]

00:45:37 ◼   ► they were gaining tons of users and adults attention and anybody who had [TS]

00:45:41 ◼   ► anything [TS]

00:45:42 ◼   ► microsoft would look at and say what we got to get into that [TS]

00:45:45 ◼   ► and then they did and I feel like that's a terrible way to run a company because [TS]

00:45:51 ◼   ► it's it's it and it's sort of two means the opposite of the way Apple is always [TS]

00:45:56 ◼   ► has achieved the success that they've had which is to be very very you know [TS]

00:45:59 ◼   ► pick and choose the things where they can make a difference in where they they [TS]

00:46:02 ◼   ► really want to be like so it has apple directly profited from the rise of [TS]

00:46:09 ◼   ► social networking [TS]

00:46:10 ◼   ► no really I mean the only thing that they ever really tried was King and with [TS]

00:46:15 ◼   ► a dar heart wasn't really in that was just a way to try to sell more music and [TS]

00:46:19 ◼   ► but on the like sort of secondary level they profited greatly because people [TS]

00:46:25 ◼   ► have social networking is a huge reason why people want to carry cell phones [TS]

00:46:30 ◼   ► smartphones with them everywhere they go and take them out of their pocket [TS]

00:46:33 ◼   ► whenever they have a few minutes [TS]

00:46:35 ◼   ► it's the fact that people are doing so much on facebook throughout the day on [TS]

00:46:40 ◼   ► their phones and doing Instagram on their phones are doing Twitter from [TS]

00:46:44 ◼   ► their phones that they care so much about their iphone an amiable benefit [TS]

00:46:49 ◼   ► you know there is its you know they don't get to you know their stock [TS]

00:46:53 ◼   ► doesn't go up just because more people are using facebook but at some level [TS]

00:46:57 ◼   ► part of the iphone success and therefore part of Apple success is the success of [TS]

00:47:02 ◼   ► things and popularity and the way that everybody I mean just you know regular [TS]

00:47:07 ◼   ► normal people have taken to these networks like fish to water [TS]

00:47:12 ◼   ► mmm yeah i think that there is an argument that if they are going to [TS]

00:47:18 ◼   ► invest in anything like you took you do you think about their statements the [TS]

00:47:22 ◼   ► repeated statements that it's important that they own their technology right [TS]

00:47:28 ◼   ► right to a degree owning your technology these days doesn't just mean owning the [TS]

00:47:35 ◼   ► bits of hardware that go into it means of course the software stack to write [TS]

00:47:39 ◼   ► and the software stack includes the underpinnings but also the things that [TS]

00:47:44 ◼   ► run on it right so the things that run it also things that run on it so Apple [TS]

00:47:50 ◼   ► goes hey you know we made this great thing we're going to get developers to [TS]

00:47:53 ◼   ► build great apps or we're going to encourage them to build great apps and [TS]

00:47:56 ◼   ► they're going to build amazing apps and they have benefited [TS]

00:47:58 ◼   ► significantly from that so then you have to go well at some point apples gonna go [TS]

00:48:03 ◼   ► these particular segments and categories of apps are so popular and so important [TS]

00:48:09 ◼   ► to the iphone success like you know you look at the you can look at the battery [TS]

00:48:14 ◼   ► indicator on your phone you know that little thing in iOS that tells you how [TS]

00:48:19 ◼   ► much battery chap is using you can get unless some app is acting naughty you [TS]

00:48:25 ◼   ► get basically a cross-section of what's important to you like which apps are [TS]

00:48:29 ◼   ► important to you and which ones you use your phones 4u your phone for and that [TS]

00:48:33 ◼   ► kind of gives you the heads-up of like oh these are the things that are most [TS]

00:48:36 ◼   ► important to me this is what is how i use my iphone and so I'm sure Apple has [TS]

00:48:41 ◼   ► all those statistics as well so you know exactly what people are using their [TS]

00:48:44 ◼   ► phones for the most so then you have to say hmm I wonder if some point they go [TS]

00:48:49 ◼   ► people use their phones sixty percent of time for messaging you know why why are [TS]

00:48:55 ◼   ► we not building I message out into a true messaging platform you know they [TS]

00:48:59 ◼   ► have done some of that they've done a little bit of that but then you go well [TS]

00:49:02 ◼   ► why is into the social network you know why isn't my messages social network i [TS]

00:49:06 ◼   ► guarantee you top battery usage is probably twitter and facebook on many [TS]

00:49:10 ◼   ► people's phones right over Twitter or Facebook or Twitter and Facebook and so [TS]

00:49:14 ◼   ► yeah maybe there's this is definite definite thought process that you can [TS]

00:49:18 ◼   ► see turning there where it's like yes we don't like splinters spread ourselves [TS]

00:49:22 ◼   ► too thin but if we were going to take on a project wouldn't the things that [TS]

00:49:27 ◼   ► people use their phone for the most and second most be something that you might [TS]

00:49:30 ◼   ► be interested in you know [TS]

00:49:32 ◼   ► yeah my guess is that in the aggregate if you looked at everybody's used an [TS]

00:49:38 ◼   ► iphone in the last month my guess is facebook would be in the top spot the [TS]

00:49:46 ◼   ► most time more than any other app my guests from number two and three it's [TS]

00:49:54 ◼   ► hard to say because i don't know like Facebook's the one where you just know [TS]

00:49:57 ◼   ► that there's that many people using it where Twitter would be I don't know I [TS]

00:50:03 ◼   ► guess it's up there but i wouldn't be surprised if it's not even close if it's [TS]

00:50:06 ◼   ► not number two and I'll guess i would guess the other app that for some people [TS]

00:50:10 ◼   ► has got to be way up there [TS]

00:50:11 ◼   ► is mail and obviously that branching his friend who is an old person or at work [TS]

00:50:20 ◼   ► person but people you know F for people whose jobs largely revolve around email [TS]

00:50:24 ◼   ► or more emails a primary part of it [TS]

00:50:27 ◼   ► voicemail can really suck up the time on your phone [TS]

00:50:30 ◼   ► whoo yeah yeah you're I think you're right in that you're gonna get like a [TS]

00:50:36 ◼   ► demographic slice like there's going to be some things that certain people use a [TS]

00:50:41 ◼   ► significant amount and then other people don't like it might if I'm if I go into [TS]

00:50:46 ◼   ► mind going here just going to look at mine [TS]

00:50:50 ◼   ► so if i go to where's the stand thing they keep moving around [TS]

00:51:00 ◼   ► yeah battery its first level but it's in the third group battery another it's [TS]

00:51:06 ◼   ► okay so yeah if i look at my top list here wait for it to refresh so it's [TS]

00:51:10 ◼   ► phone haha because i have a lot of confidence call that i actually have [TS]

00:51:16 ◼   ► laughing because I literally did not expect it [TS]

00:51:19 ◼   ► that's really funny so phone is my number one and I'm guessing that's [TS]

00:51:23 ◼   ► because I just spend an enormous amount of time on the phone talking to people [TS]

00:51:29 ◼   ► either in meetings or sources and that sort of thing and I've also been doing a [TS]

00:51:33 ◼   ► lot of work and doing some hiring right now I've been talking to a lot of [TS]

00:51:36 ◼   ► potential hire so I'll just chalk that up to abnormal because i don't think [TS]

00:51:40 ◼   ► it's usually number one but then number two is Twitter number three is Instagram [TS]

00:51:44 ◼   ► which is owned by Facebook number four is male then home and lock screen [TS]

00:51:49 ◼   ► messages slack safari and then it kind of windows down to below one percent for [TS]

00:51:55 ◼   ► the rest of them my mind for the last 24 hours Tweetbot is sixty-five percent [TS]

00:51:59 ◼   ► male eight percent sorry six percent and messages 4% have a feeling we're kind of [TS]

00:52:06 ◼   ► boring like I think a lot of people would be snapchat like I think snapchat [TS]

00:52:09 ◼   ► would be up there and here's here's my seven days it's probably more accurate [TS]

00:52:13 ◼   ► Tweetbot 49-percent safari 21% male 7% slack three messages three phone three [TS]

00:52:22 ◼   ► yeah they'll sort of windows often there [TS]

00:52:25 ◼   ► my Tweetbot is super high because I really that's really just the majority [TS]

00:52:28 ◼   ► of what I do is I mean they're reading the actual tweets or especially now that [TS]

00:52:34 ◼   ► they have this Safari view controller when I find the link to read i read it [TS]

00:52:38 ◼   ► right there in tweet pot so it's really misleading like I think if you could [TS]

00:52:43 ◼   ► separate my Tweetbot when i'm actually reading tweets vs Tweetbot when i'm [TS]

00:52:47 ◼   ► reading a webview it would be very different like and it's not any kind of [TS]

00:52:50 ◼   ► indication in my personal experience that Tweetbot is it a egregious battery [TS]

00:52:55 ◼   ► user it's really that my it's just might buy so far and away the most used app on [TS]

00:53:00 ◼   ► my phone [TS]

00:53:00 ◼   ► mhm mhm yeah and I think that those you look at those opportunities and apple [TS]

00:53:07 ◼   ► probably looks at that data as well and then they they go hey you know should we [TS]

00:53:11 ◼   ► be in this particular area and I think that usually usually the decisions her [TS]

00:53:18 ◼   ► probably made by can we 10x this right and that if they can text it if they [TS]

00:53:24 ◼   ► can't do something 10 times better than they just leave it alone and be like [TS]

00:53:28 ◼   ► well work you know we'll make the best platform we can for this particular use [TS]

00:53:32 ◼   ► case and let's somebody else build it [TS]

00:53:34 ◼   ► yeah I'd that to me is the sweet spot of where Apple's opportunities for future [TS]

00:53:39 ◼   ► growth are or just maintaining them think they have now is to make sure that [TS]

00:53:43 ◼   ► the platform is the place where the next thing is going to be built as opposed to [TS]

00:53:48 ◼   ► trying to build that next thing themselves right and if you spend too [TS]

00:53:51 ◼   ► much time trying to build the thing then you end up sending a signal to people [TS]

00:53:56 ◼   ► who could potentially build some random thing you haven't heard of right right [TS]

00:54:00 ◼   ► that that is super successful like snapchat for instance or whatever right [TS]

00:54:05 ◼   ► you kill that desire for them to innovate on your platform because you're [TS]

00:54:09 ◼   ► sending a signal like oh we're going to subsume you at some point or we think we [TS]

00:54:14 ◼   ► can do this better [TS]

00:54:15 ◼   ► so we're not going to offer you the best tools and that's always a danger with [TS]

00:54:18 ◼   ► apple because they do have native apps as well and native functionality and so [TS]

00:54:22 ◼   ► they have to balance the needs their own needs versus the needs of the developer [TS]

00:54:26 ◼   ► so that they're signaling properly that this is a hospital hospitable [TS]

00:54:31 ◼   ► environment for people that want to build new things and yeah that's [TS]

00:54:36 ◼   ► important it's important for any big platform which [TS]

00:54:38 ◼   ► why people were so kind of pissed at Facebook this week with the whole parse [TS]

00:54:42 ◼   ► thing so well let's we should talk about that i guess i don't know i don't know [TS]

00:54:47 ◼   ► enough about it that the developer details of it but more or less what [TS]

00:54:51 ◼   ► maybe you should explain it [TS]

00:54:53 ◼   ► yeah I mean you know I'm nobody's parse engineer either but i do it basically is [TS]

00:54:59 ◼   ► a a back in service that allows people to spin up multiple apps and utilize its [TS]

00:55:06 ◼   ► services for the backside of the app all of the database handling and very [TS]

00:55:10 ◼   ► variety of other things so they can build you I and concentrate on overall [TS]

00:55:15 ◼   ► user experience without having to build all of the infrastructure themselves [TS]

00:55:19 ◼   ► this was essentially a kind of a by that Facebook made facebook acquired them for [TS]

00:55:23 ◼   ► I think like 38 million dollars or something years ago and they acquire [TS]

00:55:27 ◼   ► them at a time when their stock was kind of hurting they were hedging their bets [TS]

00:55:31 ◼   ► because they weren't doing well and mobile ads they weren't converting well [TS]

00:55:34 ◼   ► their users well 22 mobile ads or revenue to mobile ads which now by the [TS]

00:55:40 ◼   ► way they are at likes me 80% right of the revenue comes from mobile ads which [TS]

00:55:44 ◼   ► is insane but they they were hedging bets and so they thought we need a [TS]

00:55:50 ◼   ► service like amazon has with AWS where we can be like the service provider for [TS]

00:55:56 ◼   ► all of these other apps and if we don't if we don't end up being in a [TS]

00:56:00 ◼   ► consumer-facing success with our revenue will have this other source of revenue [TS]

00:56:05 ◼   ► to back it up you know because they could see the writing on the wall [TS]

00:56:08 ◼   ► finally that you know everybody's going to mobile people want native and their [TS]

00:56:12 ◼   ► ads were converting well so this was a sort of hedge thing for them and then I [TS]

00:56:17 ◼   ► guess they figured I mean from what I've heard all the all the look that was like [TS]

00:56:22 ◼   ► not a lot of people are using it they could do without it so they shut it down [TS]

00:56:25 ◼   ► but it did send a lot of signals to people who develop on facebook that if [TS]

00:56:30 ◼   ► Facebook doesn't feel like they needed you know it's going away and you're [TS]

00:56:34 ◼   ► going to be stuck in the lurch if a large portion of your app was built [TS]

00:56:38 ◼   ► using this you know tool that facebook acquired or maintained which is a danger [TS]

00:56:43 ◼   ► i think right and the whole appeal of something like this is luck you have [TS]

00:56:48 ◼   ► been on this way you can keep your team small focus on what it is rap [TS]

00:56:52 ◼   ► actually does mostly you know think about the app itself as opposed to [TS]

00:56:55 ◼   ► having to worry about the backend and all this back-end engineering you'll get [TS]

00:56:59 ◼   ► your thing built faster you'll be able to parlay off our expertise at keeping [TS]

00:57:03 ◼   ► these backend services up and running with a very you know high performance [TS]

00:57:08 ◼   ► high reliability and that and all of a sudden now the one thing that I have [TS]

00:57:14 ◼   ► seen a lot of people say about parts is that ok it sucks that facebook is [TS]

00:57:18 ◼   ► shutting it down but that when Facebook shots when it's something like this down [TS]

00:57:22 ◼   ► they do it better than anybody else and I think they've I think it's a year from [TS]

00:57:26 ◼   ► now on our lives yeah one year which you know it isn't good news to anybody out [TS]

00:57:32 ◼   ► there who wasn't you know whose plans for their app that is currently using it [TS]

00:57:36 ◼   ► didn't have any kind of allocation for let's spend seven months rewriting the [TS]

00:57:41 ◼   ► backend mom in 2016 and now of a sudden that's sort of they have to but it's a [TS]

00:57:48 ◼   ► heck of a lot better than it's going away [TS]

00:57:51 ◼   ► april first or something like that which is how some of these things go down [TS]

00:57:55 ◼   ► oh yeah yeah like actually a lot of recently a lot of web services that it's [TS]

00:58:01 ◼   ► been a variety of them run by the giants that have decided that they're no longer [TS]

00:58:06 ◼   ► you necessary and they're they're shut down within a couple of weeks and like [TS]

00:58:10 ◼   ► you know really quickly and that it makes people jumping I mean this makes [TS]

00:58:15 ◼   ► developers that talk to really really really jumpy like why should we use any [TS]

00:58:18 ◼   ► of this stuff you know if we don't know where it's going to be so any I'm along [TS]

00:58:23 ◼   ► the long the roundabout route there was facebook has to deal with very similar [TS]

00:58:27 ◼   ► issues to Apple when it comes to creating a hospital environment because [TS]

00:58:31 ◼   ► I think you're absolutely correct in that you know a lot of apples continued [TS]

00:58:35 ◼   ► success is based on them being hospitable to the next big thing in [TS]

00:58:40 ◼   ► their platform being welcoming and and you know people seeing is a desirable [TS]

00:58:45 ◼   ► place to be and so far they're good they're but you know you can't you can't [TS]

00:58:49 ◼   ► count on that being forever because that's when you end up in trouble and [TS]

00:58:53 ◼   ► and end up end up slipping [TS]

00:58:55 ◼   ► yeah what did you think of [TS]

00:58:59 ◼   ► like I thought that the apples whole earnings like the phone call especially [TS]

00:59:04 ◼   ► was it was weird i thought because and it's guess it was inevitable where [TS]

00:59:10 ◼   ► because I think Apple knew exactly how well the news and numbers they had we're [TS]

00:59:13 ◼   ► going to play out which was not well but on the other hand they're not going to [TS]

00:59:18 ◼   ► it [TS]

00:59:20 ◼   ► spag the spin on it is was a very tricky dance because they're not going to sit [TS]

00:59:25 ◼   ► there and apologize for having right most profit best quarter of any company [TS]

00:59:30 ◼   ► ever right over a record for themselves and the most profit of any company that [TS]

00:59:37 ◼   ► anybody's ever had and a reasonably you know part of the spin was the very very [TS]

00:59:44 ◼   ► reasonable to me argument that big part of the reason why it was almost flat [TS]

00:59:50 ◼   ► year-over-year was the currency exchange problems that they hang around the world [TS]

00:59:56 ◼   ► and that with a good you know incredible about of [TS]

00:59:56 ◼   ► and that with a good you know incredible about of [TS]

01:00:00 ◼   ► sales they have now that there's you know definitely not eat us only company [TS]

01:00:04 ◼   ► like they used to be in the old days that they sell tons throughout Europe [TS]

01:00:07 ◼   ► and China is this huge growing market in Japan is a big market but that basically [TS]

01:00:12 ◼   ► the dollar US dollar is so strong that they you know they had to raise prices [TS]

01:00:18 ◼   ► around the world just to try to keep even in it they lost somewhere around [TS]

01:00:21 ◼   ► eight billion dollars in currency exchange for the court but it's you know [TS]

01:00:31 ◼   ► let's face it they're making excuses for you know that they're trying to put it [TS]

01:00:36 ◼   ► in the best possible light the other thing that they came up with and it's [TS]

01:00:39 ◼   ► interesting i'm not saying that it's pointless I'm not saying it's an empty [TS]

01:00:42 ◼   ► number but it's i'm curious about what you think about it because I'm still not [TS]

01:00:46 ◼   ► sure if they came up with this new number monthly active devices [TS]

01:00:51 ◼   ► uh-huh and that they said that you know that from the tracking that they can do [TS]

01:00:57 ◼   ► of you know when you opt into hey will you allow Apple to you know see you know [TS]

01:01:01 ◼   ► what you're doing on your device that there they now estimate that there's [TS]

01:01:05 ◼   ► 1,000,000,000 active devices iphones ipads max I guess watches get counted in [TS]

01:01:12 ◼   ► that that's not a billion people it's clearly they're emphasizing you know [TS]

01:01:19 ◼   ► that its devices and that an awful lot of you know the company's success is the [TS]

01:01:23 ◼   ► fact that there are people like like the people who listen to the show who have [TS]

01:01:27 ◼   ► an iphone and ipad and mac or maybe two max uh huh so a billion devices [TS]

01:01:33 ◼   ► definitely billion people on but it's an interesting number [TS]

01:01:38 ◼   ► nonetheless compared to the number of people in the world which is what like [TS]

01:01:41 ◼   ► around seven billion uh-huh yeah I don't know what to make of it either i mean i [TS]

01:01:47 ◼   ► think it's i think it's definitely a more accurate number than number of [TS]

01:01:53 ◼   ► devices sold total or not more accurate but more interesting right because a [TS]

01:01:59 ◼   ► number of devices soul does not include of course devices that have been put [TS]

01:02:03 ◼   ► into a a drawer and and you know ignored or whatever so they're signaling that [TS]

01:02:09 ◼   ► this is how many people this is your addressable market that's the [TS]

01:02:13 ◼   ► signal right so the signal to anybody in the apple ecosystem and a signal to any [TS]

01:02:20 ◼   ► investor is you know that wants to buy apple stock or whatever is that this is [TS]

01:02:25 ◼   ► their addressable market and that addressable market it has to sort of [TS]

01:02:30 ◼   ► components one accessory makers app-developers anybody in the external [TS]

01:02:37 ◼   ► ecosystem can look at that and go all this is how many people we can hope to [TS]

01:02:44 ◼   ► sell to directly and then the other aspect of it is is that apple says is [TS]

01:02:51 ◼   ► saying these this is how many people we can sell anything new we make to write [TS]

01:02:56 ◼   ► these are the people that are actively already using it that are have bought [TS]

01:03:00 ◼   ► into the Apple way of doing things and are willing to to buy the things that we [TS]

01:03:07 ◼   ► make and that is a growth signal and that's the kind of thing that they're [TS]

01:03:12 ◼   ► trying to counteract is this feeling that Apple can't grow anymore right that [TS]

01:03:17 ◼   ► doesn't have any room to grow that in that is eggs to me that's exactly why [TS]

01:03:21 ◼   ► they've introduced this number [TS]

01:03:24 ◼   ► I mean part of it is that they hit the nice even 1,000,000,000 so it makes it [TS]

01:03:28 ◼   ► like it's somewhat adds to the here's why we're going to bring this up but if [TS]

01:03:33 ◼   ► they track this every quarter [TS]

01:03:35 ◼   ► it's a way to show growth that takes into account the fact that people buy a [TS]

01:03:42 ◼   ► lot of Apple's products and use them until they break which to me is a large [TS]

01:03:48 ◼   ► part of the wire the ipad numbers lower than they were at the hit in the day and [TS]

01:03:56 ◼   ► I really do that a lot of this is based on just the anecdotal evidence of what i [TS]

01:03:59 ◼   ► see in the people in my extended family doing with their iPads which is using [TS]

01:04:04 ◼   ► them until they break and that's when they go to buy another iPad because all [TS]

01:04:09 ◼   ► of the things that they bought the ipad for you know we can focus on all the new [TS]

01:04:14 ◼   ► features like retina displays and touch ID and the pen or pencil for the ipad [TS]

01:04:21 ◼   ► pro or whatever [TS]

01:04:23 ◼   ► where's everybody i know you know bought it to do email and play candy crush and [TS]

01:04:29 ◼   ► watch videos or as you know a lot of people you know my age you know my [TS]

01:04:33 ◼   ► generation who have kids to have it to give to kids to watch videos and stuff [TS]

01:04:38 ◼   ► like that on no matter which ipad you have its it if it still is working it [TS]

01:04:44 ◼   ► still does all of those things as good as it did when it started and I really [TS]

01:04:48 ◼   ► feel like this monthly active device thing is that number that can keep [TS]

01:04:52 ◼   ► should keep growing even in a quarter where the year-over-year number of [TS]

01:04:59 ◼   ► iphone sold is not showing a lot of growth right right yeah that makes sense [TS]

01:05:05 ◼   ► because they can say look you know people are keeping them but they're [TS]

01:05:08 ◼   ► still using them now so even if we didn't sell quite as many there's still [TS]

01:05:12 ◼   ► a ton of devices on our platform so when those do break we're going to get those [TS]

01:05:16 ◼   ► sails and that's one thing so it's a recurring revenue versus a new revenue [TS]

01:05:20 ◼   ► thing but see that wall street is a really obsessed with growth right they [TS]

01:05:24 ◼   ► produced the they based their stock prices on future revenue not current you [TS]

01:05:30 ◼   ► know like [TS]

01:05:31 ◼   ► congrats you did amazing but we don't care like that's their attitude right [TS]

01:05:34 ◼   ► and it's like what could you do for me in the future not what have you done for [TS]

01:05:38 ◼   ► me and that's just the nature of the beast [TS]

01:05:41 ◼   ► you know it's the way it works so i think that that was going to have a very [TS]

01:05:45 ◼   ► interesting story to tell because this this is one of those really funny legacy [TS]

01:05:53 ◼   ► depends on who you who you are whether it's funny or novice sort of funny in a [TS]

01:05:57 ◼   ► really mccobb way to me but Apple actually looks less valuable to wall [TS]

01:06:03 ◼   ► street because its products are built better and work better and I don't need [TS]

01:06:08 ◼   ► to be replaced as much because they are still quite functional even even several [TS]

01:06:13 ◼   ► generations down the line whereas you know 11 generation or two you know an [TS]

01:06:18 ◼   ► android devices usually unless it's the really really well built one is [TS]

01:06:23 ◼   ► disposable you know and that's being generous so I think that it's as a funny [TS]

01:06:27 ◼   ► situation where it's like oh your company is not worth as much as you [TS]

01:06:31 ◼   ► build your products too well and I find that really really amusing but I'm sure [TS]

01:06:35 ◼   ► apple doesn't find it as a means [TS]

01:06:36 ◼   ► now i don't think so either and if you really think about it deeply it's it [TS]

01:06:42 ◼   ► really is it's the conflict of short-term interest which wall street [TS]

01:06:47 ◼   ► infamously is focused on hyper focused on is what do you do you know didn't [TS]

01:06:51 ◼   ► just look in three months ahead at a time three months three months three [TS]

01:06:54 ◼   ► months as opposed to looking you know that years or even decades of building [TS]

01:06:59 ◼   ► loyal customer relationships building iphones that are reliable enough and [TS]

01:07:06 ◼   ► wear and tear well enough that people can it maybe extend the two years that [TS]

01:07:12 ◼   ► cycle and maybe only by every three or four years and have reasonably good [TS]

01:07:18 ◼   ► experiences right up until the end when they do it is great for the customer [TS]

01:07:22 ◼   ► relation between Apple and I and our customers where their customers think [TS]

01:07:25 ◼   ► i'm getting great value for this because look I bought this for four years ago [TS]

01:07:29 ◼   ► and i'm now we're losing now and it's not great if you're looking for her [TS]

01:07:33 ◼   ► record-breaking quarter after quarter and know right haha yeah it's it's a [TS]

01:07:41 ◼   ► six-second situation of being which is maybe why we're seeing these new metrics [TS]

01:07:44 ◼   ► and seeing some dances with with those numbers i mean there I was I was [TS]

01:07:49 ◼   ► laughing because before the and win the before the call when that because that [TS]

01:07:54 ◼   ► the earnings drop several minutes before the call about 30 minutes before the [TS]

01:08:00 ◼   ► call usually and you'll get a you get some time to kind of pour over the [TS]

01:08:04 ◼   ► numbers and you publish whatever you want to about the basic numbers of the [TS]

01:08:07 ◼   ► situation but during that space we noticed that somebody tweeted at me and [TS]

01:08:14 ◼   ► i can remember who I apologize it's smaller but they said it was the first [TS]

01:08:17 ◼   ► time that they can remember seeing supplemental materials attached to the [TS]

01:08:21 ◼   ► report that were specifically about currency happens you have foreign [TS]

01:08:25 ◼   ► exchange and problems and in that it is true they've mentioned 4x4 several years [TS]

01:08:30 ◼   ► now as a major factor in why their profits haven't looked quite as good [TS]

01:08:34 ◼   ► because you know the right there especially what they said is like a [TS]

01:08:38 ◼   ► hundred dollars today or eighty eight hundred dollars 2014 is $85 today so [TS]

01:08:43 ◼   ► that's a significant portion you know its enormous chunk of of money that just [TS]

01:08:47 ◼   ► disappears a profit that disappears for them [TS]

01:08:50 ◼   ► but I laugh because like they started the call and and was less those two [TS]

01:08:55 ◼   ► sentences in they mentioned currency headwinds as a as a factor so it's a [TS]

01:09:00 ◼   ► huge deal for them because those numbers those the growth numbers are what they [TS]

01:09:06 ◼   ► can base future growth on and people go yeah but it doesn't matter to apple they [TS]

01:09:12 ◼   ► have so much cash in the bank and blah blah blah and that is true like to to a [TS]

01:09:17 ◼   ► large degree I mean Apple does not really care about what Wall Street [TS]

01:09:21 ◼   ► values its stock at in general and that isn't really that's the CEOs job is [TS]

01:09:27 ◼   ► Scott to maximize the stock price a lot of people think that is that's not [TS]

01:09:30 ◼   ► actually true and the thing the factor the big issue with that happening is not [TS]

01:09:38 ◼   ► the immediate apples in trouble with Wall Street you know meaner it's apples [TS]

01:09:44 ◼   ► hiring and retention of employees is largely based on stock because Apple [TS]

01:09:50 ◼   ► does not pay very well I mean the people i shouldn't say that it's unfair they [TS]

01:09:55 ◼   ► pay fairly but they don't pay exorbitant sum it's not an answer it you know that [TS]

01:10:00 ◼   ► at Apple's average salary is not commensurate to apples corporate average [TS]

01:10:05 ◼   ► progress which are extraordinary apples profits are truly extremely they are [TS]

01:10:09 ◼   ► literally the most profitable company right now I mean who knows how long [TS]

01:10:12 ◼   ► that'll last but at the moment they're the most profitable comfortable company [TS]

01:10:16 ◼   ► in the world [TS]

01:10:17 ◼   ► their average salary to engineers and regular talent this is not correct and [TS]

01:10:24 ◼   ► so that compensation that additional compensation whatever you want to call [TS]

01:10:27 ◼   ► it has to come from the stock so people they go hey you know here's a very you [TS]

01:10:34 ◼   ► know a nice maybe even better than average stock compensation plan for you [TS]

01:10:41 ◼   ► to offset the fact that we don't pay crazy google engineer rates you know and [TS]

01:10:49 ◼   ► that I think is it's going to hurt them so that's why they care so much about [TS]

01:10:53 ◼   ► this stuff and why they're trying to communicate so much too besides the fact [TS]

01:10:56 ◼   ► that yeah of course you won't have a good ending earnings report you know [TS]

01:10:59 ◼   ► that saying forget to stock who cares it's just that's the most important [TS]

01:11:03 ◼   ► thing [TS]

01:11:03 ◼   ► them because Apple faces an enormous amount of competition against the [TS]

01:11:08 ◼   ► everything up until what was very recently an extremely favorable funding [TS]

01:11:12 ◼   ► in environment and it's still much better than it has been in years and [TS]

01:11:15 ◼   ► years so an engineer a talented one says hey why don't i just become a technical [TS]

01:11:20 ◼   ► founder of my own company and and build it to scale it to whatever and sell it [TS]

01:11:25 ◼   ► for $MONEY for millions or whatever the case why should I go over to apple or go [TS]

01:11:29 ◼   ► go to work at apple instead while I don't want to start my own company or [TS]

01:11:32 ◼   ► why don't I go to one of these companies that are offering just insane retention [TS]

01:11:37 ◼   ► or acquisition package for engineers because the absolutely must have [TS]

01:11:41 ◼   ► engineers it's one of the most competitive hiring environments in the [TS]

01:11:46 ◼   ► history of ever for engineers so that's going to hurt their ability to hire and [TS]

01:11:52 ◼   ► routine and that's that's I think the big reason they're trying to to [TS]

01:11:56 ◼   ► communicate this these growth this growth potential to the wall street in [TS]

01:12:02 ◼   ► such an aggressive way [TS]

01:12:03 ◼   ► yeah i definitely agree and it does i think that i think that that is the the [TS]

01:12:07 ◼   ► connection to retention and it attention of existing talent and attracting the [TS]

01:12:14 ◼   ► new talent that they need [TS]

01:12:15 ◼   ► it's absolutely the way that the stock price most directly affects the way [TS]

01:12:20 ◼   ► Apple ism is the managed in the short term [TS]

01:12:25 ◼   ► mmm yeah it's like the difference between you know it [TS]

01:12:29 ◼   ► Apple employee buying a bicycle or a Porsche you know that's what the [TS]

01:12:32 ◼   ► differences between the stock price $MONEY a year ago in the stock price now [TS]

01:12:36 ◼   ► you know I mean so it's it's not it's pretty substantial and ya know when you [TS]

01:12:41 ◼   ► know it's not like I'm saying everybody's the sports car but it does [TS]

01:12:44 ◼   ► when you when you look at it in the aggregate you're gonna do you have a [TS]

01:12:48 ◼   ► certain value as an engineer and that value is really i right now and so [TS]

01:12:53 ◼   ► apples you know got to got to play in that same field as everybody else [TS]

01:12:58 ◼   ► decided that they start spending cash just flat-out cash on on hiring people [TS]

01:13:02 ◼   ► and paying them a lot a lot of money that's never the way they've hired but [TS]

01:13:07 ◼   ► it is a question about whether or not they may have to start [TS]

01:13:10 ◼   ► yeah yeah and I wonder I feel like they're if they needed to to go that [TS]

01:13:16 ◼   ► route [TS]

01:13:16 ◼   ► they could and part part of the reason why is that they make high-margin [TS]

01:13:24 ◼   ► relatively low volume products meaning low-volume even the iphone which is the [TS]

01:13:30 ◼   ► most successful product anybody's ever had a whole industry it still is not [TS]

01:13:34 ◼   ► famously I mean nobody really talks about anymore because it's everybody's [TS]

01:13:37 ◼   ► sort of gotten pounded through their heads that it doesn't really matter but [TS]

01:13:40 ◼   ► doesn't the majority of smart phones you know that Android as a hole in the [TS]

01:13:44 ◼   ► aggregate outsells the iphone it's just that each one is you know very high [TS]

01:13:50 ◼   ► average selling price etc etc and that a so Apple kit they they sell enough of [TS]

01:13:56 ◼   ► them that the scale is there that they can pay you know it's not quite that [TS]

01:13:59 ◼   ► they need to hire engineers at a one-to-one ratio with the number of [TS]

01:14:04 ◼   ► devices they sell uh-huh uh-huh yeah yeah i mean right now they're so they [TS]

01:14:11 ◼   ► actually I mean you know they have turned over like everybody else but that [TS]

01:14:15 ◼   ► they're so packed right now like I've heard all the buildings like to do it [TS]

01:14:18 ◼   ► desk you know stuff like that like they're they're really like their amount [TS]

01:14:22 ◼   ► of real estate they have a lot of people hired and packed in there which is why [TS]

01:14:26 ◼   ► that building this new you know headquarters and they're already [TS]

01:14:30 ◼   ► planning another big building you know because it's just like they're growing [TS]

01:14:33 ◼   ► they've grown like crazy on the back of iPhone growth you know I think they [TS]

01:14:38 ◼   ► don't want to say it [TS]

01:14:39 ◼   ► they just don't I mean it's just because it's not embarrassing but they don't [TS]

01:14:43 ◼   ► want to put a negative spin on something like the new campus still hasn't even [TS]

01:14:46 ◼   ► finished they haven't had a grand opening it and they want the grand [TS]

01:14:49 ◼   ► opening to be like this great celebration of look at this beautiful [TS]

01:14:52 ◼   ► building and all these great features but I really do feel like that the [TS]

01:14:56 ◼   ► fundamental truth is they underestimated vastly underestimated the size that the [TS]

01:15:00 ◼   ► new headquarters should be little that they if they knew then what they know [TS]

01:15:07 ◼   ► now like if tim cook and could send back a message to his you know at the point [TS]

01:15:13 ◼   ► where they were committing to break ground you know what was that run 2010 [TS]

01:15:17 ◼   ► 2011 whenever that was like when Steve Jobs was going still [TS]

01:15:22 ◼   ► going before like the Cupertino City Council or whatever they could go back [TS]

01:15:27 ◼   ► and just send her maybe like make some changes to the blueprints they'd add a [TS]

01:15:31 ◼   ► lot of space because yeah I have probably double the size to be is my [TS]

01:15:37 ◼   ► basic III what I've heard and I i wouldn't be surprised if it's changed [TS]

01:15:42 ◼   ► even since i last talked to somebody about it but basically they're not [TS]

01:15:46 ◼   ► closing anything you know they're opening this new campus and they plan to [TS]

01:15:50 ◼   ► fill the whole thing up and all of the existing campus space that they have is [TS]

01:15:55 ◼   ► going to continue being used that and just imagine how correct now imagine how [TS]

01:15:59 ◼   ► crowded they must be that at this point [TS]

01:16:02 ◼   ► yeah yeah cuz all everything they bought a bunch of real estate I mean almost all [TS]

01:16:06 ◼   ► of you know cupertino us like apple now but they they wanted so much space and [TS]

01:16:11 ◼   ► if all of that is being used and all of the new capacity is being used [TS]

01:16:16 ◼   ► that's just you know that's just steady right and obviously they're growing [TS]

01:16:21 ◼   ► company that has to hire so yeah they're going to be they're gonna be hurtin for [TS]

01:16:24 ◼   ► space pretty quick yeah alright let me take another break and think our next [TS]

01:16:29 ◼   ► sponsor and we came back I want to talk about another company that had a [TS]

01:16:32 ◼   ► probably the worst weekend apple in terms of what the earnings did to the [TS]

01:16:37 ◼   ► stock and that's amazon but I want to take a moment now and thank warby parker [TS]

01:16:42 ◼   ► warby parker makes buying glasses online easy and risk-free where you go you go [TS]

01:16:49 ◼   ► to warp warby parker com /d talk show and you can order your free home trial [TS]

01:16:55 ◼   ► ends today they have contemporary eyeglasses that are extremely affordable [TS]

01:16:59 ◼   ► very fashionable on it they make their classes are inexpensive enough that you [TS]

01:17:05 ◼   ► can definitely treat them like an accessory in terms of you can have [TS]

01:17:10 ◼   ► multiple pairs you don't have to think like I have one pair of glasses you can [TS]

01:17:13 ◼   ► go and their regular prescription glasses started just $95 which includes [TS]

01:17:19 ◼   ► the prescription lenses on and they don't nickel-and-dime you on coatings [TS]

01:17:23 ◼   ► and stuff like that you get really good lens the lens that you would want for [TS]

01:17:28 ◼   ► this 95 bucks they have a titanium collection that's just 149 [TS]

01:17:32 ◼   ► our 145 including again including prescription lenses and premium Japanese [TS]

01:17:37 ◼   ► titanium really nice French non rocking screws really really good stuff they [TS]

01:17:43 ◼   ► also have non prescription sunglasses so even if you don't need prescription [TS]

01:17:48 ◼   ► glasses if you just want to get a really nice pair of sunglasses you can go there [TS]

01:17:51 ◼   ► for that to all of their glasses conclude anti-reflective anti-glare [TS]

01:17:56 ◼   ► coating is I don't up so you on those things you just get it for free [TS]

01:17:59 ◼   ► excellent hard case i really do that the warby parker classes cases are excellent [TS]

01:18:04 ◼   ► really great a nice cleaning cloth all of that stuff just comes with the [TS]

01:18:10 ◼   ► glasses now buying glasses online sounds tricky because it seems like the sort of [TS]

01:18:15 ◼   ► thing that's definitely sort of thing you want to try them on before you buy [TS]

01:18:18 ◼   ► what they let you do that you go there you pick five up to five pairs of [TS]

01:18:22 ◼   ► glasses that you want to evaluate and they send them to you free of charge and [TS]

01:18:27 ◼   ► it comes in like two or three days get a box as all five of them laid out try mon [TS]

01:18:32 ◼   ► at home and they just got you know regular clear non-prescription lenses [TS]

01:18:36 ◼   ► and you just try mon look in the mirror see how you look which ones you like and [TS]

01:18:40 ◼   ► see if they're comfortable and you pick the one you want you send it back you go [TS]

01:18:45 ◼   ► online and to say here's the one I want [TS]

01:18:47 ◼   ► and within I don't know it's like a week or so they arrive to i just ordered a [TS]

01:18:53 ◼   ► new pair myself about a week ago it took about a week from when i said here's the [TS]

01:18:57 ◼   ► ones i want to where I got them could not be easier everything and even the [TS]

01:19:02 ◼   ► box to send them back comes with the label pre-printed you just close the box [TS]

01:19:06 ◼   ► put a piece of tape on it and just stick the sticker they've already given it is [TS]

01:19:10 ◼   ► to give it to the UPS or FedEx guy or whatever could not be easier so if you [TS]

01:19:15 ◼   ► need glasses [TS]

01:19:16 ◼   ► you want another pair of glasses want to buy an extra pair of glasses go to warby [TS]

01:19:19 ◼   ► parker calm / the talkshow don't know you came from the show and you'll get [TS]

01:19:24 ◼   ► your free home Trion's within just a few days so my thanks to Warby Parker [TS]

01:19:29 ◼   ► alright amazon so Amazon I don't understand what happened to Amazon [TS]

01:19:35 ◼   ► because amazon announced record-breaking revenue and I forget you know there's a [TS]

01:19:42 ◼   ► couple places that track online stuff that estimated that over the holiday [TS]

01:19:45 ◼   ► quarter amazon did 51-percent of all the online shopping at least in America so [TS]

01:19:52 ◼   ► they've actually reached the point where they did they take up a majority of [TS]

01:19:57 ◼   ► online shopping [TS]

01:19:58 ◼   ► ah and everybody i know uses amazon more than they've ever used it before we [TS]

01:20:05 ◼   ► j-just by ridiculous stuff from Amazon now right like we've we've got beaten [TS]

01:20:09 ◼   ► everybody laugh but we got those clickers here net that group house we've [TS]

01:20:15 ◼   ► got one now for the detergent so like when when we're doing laundry for run [TS]

01:20:19 ◼   ► lon detergent you just click your little button and oh and a couple days later [TS]

01:20:22 ◼   ► some tied shows up and it but because their profits were lower than I guess [TS]

01:20:30 ◼   ► they get the gist is ok the revenues up but their profits were lower than [TS]

01:20:34 ◼   ► expected their stock took I mean like a bath like that get ten percent just cut [TS]

01:20:40 ◼   ► right off the top [TS]

01:20:41 ◼   ► mm I'm looking as we record were recording after the close of market on [TS]

01:20:45 ◼   ► Friday here [TS]

01:20:46 ◼   ► amazon for the day was down seven-and-a-half percent on a day when [TS]

01:20:52 ◼   ► the market as a whole was up about 2.5% so you know compared to the market they [TS]

01:20:59 ◼   ► more or less lost ten percent today which is crazy because to me [TS]

01:21:03 ◼   ► revenue going way way up and profit missing the mark that's the Amazon way [TS]

01:21:09 ◼   ► like who are these people who are invested in Amazon who who haven't [TS]

01:21:13 ◼   ► noticed that that's the way amazon rolls [TS]

01:21:16 ◼   ► yeah so here's my kitchen you know I wonder if we've reached the point where [TS]

01:21:23 ◼   ► maybe you know and I realize that arguments that the market is sensible [TS]

01:21:28 ◼   ► you know and had some kind of collective logic to it you know the mr. market [TS]

01:21:31 ◼   ► argument but I just wonder if maybe we reached the point where mr. market is [TS]

01:21:35 ◼   ► sick of waiting for amazon to have consistent profits and that the Amazon [TS]

01:21:39 ◼   ► doesn't need to be profitable part of amis [TS]

01:21:41 ◼   ► its history is coming to a close [TS]

01:21:45 ◼   ► yeah interesting one I mean it's something that's been a major question [TS]

01:21:49 ◼   ► for a while it's like it a is Amazon even capable of doing at like flipping [TS]

01:21:54 ◼   ► some magical switch becoming profitable and then be when is that when do [TS]

01:21:58 ◼   ► investors get tired of waiting right and that you know Jeff basis always been [TS]

01:22:04 ◼   ► very upfront about what they're doing which is investing almost every penny [TS]

01:22:08 ◼   ► back in the company in india growth and that is their plan they want to become [TS]

01:22:11 ◼   ► the biggest at everything they do and investors have bought in right because [TS]

01:22:16 ◼   ► he's he's charismatic and the company has done well and growth it hasn't [TS]

01:22:19 ◼   ► missed those targets like it tends to to grow the way it grows and went on a very [TS]

01:22:26 ◼   ► predictable level for many many years but every not like you look at like [TS]

01:22:31 ◼   ► every quarter since late $MONTH 2014 [TS]

01:22:35 ◼   ► then the estimated earnings has been incorrect like the eps [TS]

01:22:40 ◼   ► earnings-per-share has been wrong a slightly low actually every year whether [TS]

01:22:44 ◼   ► it was a loss or gain because amazon is actually a marked a loss in like q1 of [TS]

01:22:50 ◼   ► $MONTH 2015 but eps wise but they a negative ups but investors have always [TS]

01:22:58 ◼   ► sort of like underestimated and then like the holiday quarter the wildly well [TS]

01:23:03 ◼   ► hopefully overestimated like buy like fifty percent how much they thought [TS]

01:23:08 ◼   ► amazon was gonna make and it's I don't know why maybe it's like everybody got [TS]

01:23:13 ◼   ► like hopped up on holiday juice and decided all amazon is gonna just make so [TS]

01:23:18 ◼   ► much money because it's Christmas and blah blah blah but that mean this you [TS]

01:23:23 ◼   ► know i don't know they seem pretty upfront about their their plans so [TS]

01:23:27 ◼   ► whether people are tired of it or not tired of it [TS]

01:23:31 ◼   ► I don't know if Amazon's gonna change that strategy a whole lot i mean i guess [TS]

01:23:35 ◼   ► people could force them to bike severely undervaluing their stock but I don't [TS]

01:23:40 ◼   ► know I don't I don't I don't foresee that going anywhere [TS]

01:23:43 ◼   ► it really seemed to me like an apple-like stock adjustment you know [TS]

01:23:47 ◼   ► we're in terms of it being what ought to be a very stable stock because there [TS]

01:23:52 ◼   ► hey they're huge your big company they've been around for awhile but be [TS]

01:23:57 ◼   ► there there to me pretty easily understood this is Amazon and Apple and [TS]

01:24:03 ◼   ► what they announced it maybe not be the best news you've ever heard but it [TS]

01:24:07 ◼   ► shouldn't affect the stock and like ten percent of the market cap and the end [TS]

01:24:12 ◼   ► that type of volatility like this is not volatile volatile volatile surprised [TS]

01:24:18 ◼   ► that they've announced this should be you know well maybe a little bit down it [TS]

01:24:21 ◼   ► just seems like it's it's almost it's almost shocking how volatile stock can [TS]

01:24:26 ◼   ► be even when the news that they're announcing to me isn't surprising in the [TS]

01:24:30 ◼   ► least bit [TS]

01:24:31 ◼   ► uh-huh yeah and I think some of it could be that there is the there's a way that [TS]

01:24:41 ◼   ► the people are looking at analysts or or the people whose job it is to watch the [TS]

01:24:48 ◼   ► market looking at amazon that's different now but i don't think that [TS]

01:24:51 ◼   ► Amazon looks at itself differently you know I don't say that you know i think [TS]

01:24:55 ◼   ► they're just there as far as they're concerned they're staying the course [TS]

01:24:58 ◼   ► there's even some interesting math I think Jason delray Rico did this math [TS]

01:25:03 ◼   ► and i thought it was clever way of looking at it but he was saying that [TS]

01:25:05 ◼   ► amazon has at least 46 million prime members worldwide yeah at this point and [TS]

01:25:11 ◼   ► i thought they needed a little bit of prestidigitation with the Amazons very [TS]

01:25:15 ◼   ► very nebulous but numbers because his famous for never gave me exact numbers [TS]

01:25:20 ◼   ► anything they don't absolutely have to by law but he be kind of back in a [TS]

01:25:24 ◼   ► napkin about 46 million at least 46 million prime members but it could be [TS]

01:25:28 ◼   ► more and I think that that number is a really key indicator it's a really [TS]

01:25:33 ◼   ► really interesting indicator of Amazon's philosophy which is if you are a member [TS]

01:25:39 ◼   ► of amazon your life is easier right like that's what they want people to buy into [TS]

01:25:44 ◼   ► that's what they're selling they're not selling individual products are or [TS]

01:25:49 ◼   ► services they're selling this idea that oh if you're a prime member the benefits [TS]

01:25:54 ◼   ► that you get are so wide and varied that you'd be dumb not to you know you'd just [TS]

01:25:59 ◼   ► be stupid not to write and it's just one membership and you don't have to sign up [TS]

01:26:04 ◼   ► for [TS]

01:26:05 ◼   ► amazon video and you have to sign up for amazon books and Amazon groceries just [TS]

01:26:12 ◼   ► sign up for amazon prime and you get all of this stuff and maybe you sign up for [TS]

01:26:16 ◼   ► amazon prime primarily just to get as much free shipping as you can on books [TS]

01:26:24 ◼   ► and miscellaneous physical things that you buy from amazon and have shipped to [TS]

01:26:28 ◼   ► your house so you don't have to go to a store and buy it but that the ancillary [TS]

01:26:31 ◼   ► benefit of hey all these different devices you've got like whatever brand [TS]

01:26:36 ◼   ► phone it is in your pocket and most set-top boxes like your tivo whatever [TS]

01:26:42 ◼   ► just go over and just click on the amazon thing now and sign in with the [TS]

01:26:45 ◼   ► same ID and you're gonna have all of this stuff that you can just watch you [TS]

01:26:49 ◼   ► just watch it for you know just it's it's just there you know and including [TS]

01:26:53 ◼   ► original you know programming i think it's a very compelling story and I [TS]

01:26:58 ◼   ► really think that it's a remarkably self-aware company like I feel like [TS]

01:27:04 ◼   ► Amazon it's starting from jeff basis on down [TS]

01:27:08 ◼   ► they know exactly who they are what they want to be doing and even you know [TS]

01:27:12 ◼   ► they're missteps even the mistake you know things they made that didn't really [TS]

01:27:15 ◼   ► take off to me they were very reasonable tries you know like the phone the fire [TS]

01:27:20 ◼   ► phone is totally reasonable thing for them to have tried I would almost say [TS]

01:27:26 ◼   ► sort of like with facebook and some of the individual sub apps you know little [TS]

01:27:30 ◼   ► mini apps that they've made that didn't really take off but they were worthwhile [TS]

01:27:33 ◼   ► experiments and then maybe there are things that they could learn that you [TS]

01:27:37 ◼   ► know go into the facebook . app itself same way with amazon in the fire phone [TS]

01:27:41 ◼   ► like the fact that was a real a real disaster in terms of how successful it [TS]

01:27:47 ◼   ► was I don't it's not like they put any any kind of effort into that hurt them [TS]

01:27:51 ◼   ► anywhere else and if it had taken off if they figured out a way to make it click [TS]

01:27:56 ◼   ► that could have been a great idea [TS]

01:27:59 ◼   ► yeah i remember was that the finish the first kindle fire tablet announcement [TS]

01:28:08 ◼   ► and it was like an airplane hangar in LA or something or some event space on near [TS]

01:28:14 ◼   ► an airport and i was i was sitting there and they were showing all these charts [TS]

01:28:18 ◼   ► with no [TS]

01:28:19 ◼   ► numbers on them basis and business starts right basis Jesse exactly and [TS]

01:28:23 ◼   ► like you know this is Amazon was here and now it's here and you know a lot of [TS]

01:28:27 ◼   ► really context free stuff and I was kinda zoning out but I week a kind of [TS]

01:28:31 ◼   ► had an inkling at what they were going to announce and kind of the basic thing [TS]

01:28:34 ◼   ► and I was and I was thinking to myself like if if they do this right it's just [TS]

01:28:41 ◼   ► like a single a single account with access just everything like everything [TS]

01:28:49 ◼   ► you could possibly want in your life i mean that's that's really really [TS]

01:28:54 ◼   ► powerful this is what Apple has been trying to build piece by piece with [TS]

01:28:57 ◼   ► iCloud and that just amazon had a lot of the other stuff that Apple didn't they [TS]

01:29:01 ◼   ► were just coming to the same place from opposite ends of the spectrum and I [TS]

01:29:05 ◼   ► thought that was a really valid thought to have you know a really valid effort [TS]

01:29:10 ◼   ► to make as you mentioned to to kind of get there from their position whereas [TS]

01:29:15 ◼   ► apples coming from a hardware maker and getting into the middle where its [TS]

01:29:19 ◼   ► hardware in cloud working together and Amazon's coming from the cloud side and [TS]

01:29:23 ◼   ► doing the same thing because they both company saw very well that that is the [TS]

01:29:28 ◼   ► future of everything is that if you have a device that does not provide you [TS]

01:29:33 ◼   ► access to everything that you need in your digital you know life on a server [TS]

01:29:39 ◼   ► in the Midwest somewhere then it's just an empty shell to husk and as far as [TS]

01:29:45 ◼   ► Amazon is concerned the shit the jelly filling is the important part and apples [TS]

01:29:51 ◼   ► as Apple's concern the donut is the important part right and so they they [TS]

01:29:55 ◼   ► just have different philosophies as to what the the mate the major minor is but [TS]

01:30:01 ◼   ► they're going to the same place a jelly-filled doughnut you know and i [TS]

01:30:04 ◼   ► think that there's plenty to still explore their and i really like even if [TS]

01:30:09 ◼   ► I I'd know like Amazon scale back their their labs a lot of hardware labs and [TS]

01:30:17 ◼   ► and kind of reach occurred and move things around and there's been a lot of [TS]

01:30:20 ◼   ► I talked a lot of people who have come out of there and said it was like they [TS]

01:30:24 ◼   ► were trying to run like an amazing innovation lab like a Johnny I've design [TS]

01:30:27 ◼   ► studio but they're trying to run it with amazon efficiencies like you pay for [TS]

01:30:31 ◼   ► your parking [TS]

01:30:32 ◼   ► like you know stuff like that like crappy desks and whatnot ask did you [TS]

01:30:36 ◼   ► know your desk is made out of a door right exactly exactly like you know hey [TS]

01:30:42 ◼   ► whatever you can [TS]

01:30:43 ◼   ► everybody's got their own style but I just don't think that works really well [TS]

01:30:46 ◼   ► for that type of environment you know sometimes it matters you know how you [TS]

01:30:50 ◼   ► feel about where you work that's just what you're doing but regardless i think [TS]

01:30:55 ◼   ► that i would not be surprised with and take another stab at that you know it to [TS]

01:30:59 ◼   ► kind of come out again from a slightly different angle to say look this thing [TS]

01:31:05 ◼   ► is just a portal in the Amazon the specs don't even matter because they were like [TS]

01:31:09 ◼   ► really we're talking all kind of look at this [TS]

01:31:12 ◼   ► you know you're getting this for this there were high on the value right which [TS]

01:31:15 ◼   ► is a very amazon thing you're getting this processor and this ram for this [TS]

01:31:19 ◼   ► much money it's just half the price of our competitors or whatever right and I [TS]

01:31:24 ◼   ► just don't think that people care that much and I don't think it matters you [TS]

01:31:28 ◼   ► know it's just this is a thing that gets you all of your stuff that's it that's [TS]

01:31:32 ◼   ► all that matters [TS]

01:31:32 ◼   ► I think that there's that Amazon's interesting comparison to Apple to in [TS]

01:31:38 ◼   ► terms of the bases charts and that for as secretive as Apple is about it [TS]

01:31:43 ◼   ► future products and they are famously you know the most secretive company in [TS]

01:31:47 ◼   ► the industry when it comes to what they're working on our least they try to [TS]

01:31:50 ◼   ► be historically there actually there what they but they've released and what [TS]

01:31:55 ◼   ► they continue to release in their quarterly financial statements is [TS]

01:31:59 ◼   ► actually pretty open but that's what makes the fact that they set it in [TS]

01:32:03 ◼   ► advance so that it wouldn't come as a surprise but that they're not going to [TS]

01:32:07 ◼   ► release sales figures for Apple watch different and I can't help but think [TS]

01:32:12 ◼   ► that part of it is that they look at amazon and the fact that Amazon doesn't [TS]

01:32:16 ◼   ► really doesn't break anything down [TS]

01:32:18 ◼   ► they just see here's our revenue here's our prophet and they'll say where [TS]

01:32:21 ◼   ► something's are up or whatever but they don't announce you know actual down put [TS]

01:32:26 ◼   ► actual numbers on the charts [TS]

01:32:28 ◼   ► I can't help but think that Apple executive team looks at that and says [TS]

01:32:33 ◼   ► boy that would be nice [TS]

01:32:35 ◼   ► yeah [TS]

01:32:35 ◼   ► yeah I think it would be the amazing scenario for them to feel like I don't [TS]

01:32:40 ◼   ► like we sold the most ever [TS]

01:32:42 ◼   ► yeah that was examples ever the most of the day with the watch yeah that's [TS]

01:32:46 ◼   ► exactly what they did with the watch the day we sold the most-watched ever how [TS]

01:32:52 ◼   ► many the most ever [TS]

01:32:53 ◼   ► all good great excellently did a good job keep it up [TS]

01:32:57 ◼   ► yeah i mean i think they do get hold of different standards I i think the Amazon [TS]

01:33:03 ◼   ► sort of set themselves up for that but never ever ever entertaining the numbers [TS]

01:33:08 ◼   ► thing but i also think that because of the expectations people have for amazon [TS]

01:33:13 ◼   ► growth AKA a huge revenue growth flatline profits you know I think [TS]

01:33:20 ◼   ► somebody tweeted like a hammer was that maybe matthew Yglesias to and chart from [TS]

01:33:25 ◼   ► the Financial Times I think I thought it was something we can say retreated but [TS]

01:33:29 ◼   ► if he did better with faces a i love this chart it was just that the prophets [TS]

01:33:36 ◼   ► a pink line that just dribbles along the bottom there's zero like flew 50 and the [TS]

01:33:42 ◼   ► revenues equip straight up 200 you know right i'm a million that guess but it's [TS]

01:33:47 ◼   ► it's pretty crazy that they are able to get away with that but it is about [TS]

01:33:51 ◼   ► positioning [TS]

01:33:52 ◼   ► alright it's about setting yourself up and in this long-term story that Amazon [TS]

01:33:58 ◼   ► feels and thinks of itself as a young company as a like or just getting [TS]

01:34:03 ◼   ► started over like we're just starting to get into like our teen years and I mean [TS]

01:34:09 ◼   ► like they're they're raring to go and this is just beginning [TS]

01:34:12 ◼   ► like all of that is his message externally internally and you know it's [TS]

01:34:17 ◼   ► sort of like to stay hungry thing right [TS]

01:34:19 ◼   ► no we don't want to feel complacent or whatever but it also allows them to [TS]

01:34:24 ◼   ► maybe excuses the wrong word but i'm gonna use it allows them to excuse that [TS]

01:34:28 ◼   ► particular differential between the growth and profits by saying look we're [TS]

01:34:32 ◼   ► in our growth face [TS]

01:34:34 ◼   ► we don't yet serve every person on earth wherein our growth phase you know and i [TS]

01:34:39 ◼   ► think that's a very very interesting thing for them to be able to get away [TS]

01:34:43 ◼   ► with its hundred percent unique in that [TS]

01:34:46 ◼   ► lexicon of tech companies out there [TS]

01:34:52 ◼   ► well said let me take this break and and thank our third and final sponsor the [TS]

01:34:56 ◼   ► show it's our good friend Casper Casper is an online retailer of premium [TS]

01:35:01 ◼   ► mattresses that they sell for a fraction of the price of the mainstream [TS]

01:35:05 ◼   ► competitors when you go into a regular mattress store the mattress industry has [TS]

01:35:09 ◼   ► inherently force customers into paying the Tory ously hi markups for incredibly [TS]

01:35:14 ◼   ► confusing lineups of mattresses they do all sorts of things that regular [TS]

01:35:19 ◼   ► mattress company students for if you go into mattress store a and you make a [TS]

01:35:22 ◼   ► list of like the three mattresses from the company that you're interested in [TS]

01:35:26 ◼   ► and then you go to another store to see if we can compare the prices the [TS]

01:35:29 ◼   ► mattresses have different names even though they're like the same thing as in [TS]

01:35:32 ◼   ► another store they sell each one to each retailer with different names to [TS]

01:35:35 ◼   ► purposefully make it hard to compare really really just a rotten rotten [TS]

01:35:39 ◼   ► practice and it's a real pain in the ass to buy a mattress Casper is trying to [TS]

01:35:44 ◼   ► revolutionize the mattress industry by just doing it a completely direct and [TS]

01:35:50 ◼   ► completely non confusing way so they sell direct number one that cuts the [TS]

01:35:55 ◼   ► price of the mattress dramatically because you buy it right from them you [TS]

01:35:58 ◼   ► don't go to a retailer and there's no wholesale you know markup or anything [TS]

01:36:03 ◼   ► like that the quality what Casper's mattresses provide resilience long [TS]

01:36:09 ◼   ► lasting support comfort and it's do you don't have to choose from like a [TS]

01:36:14 ◼   ► confusing array of what type of mattress you want [TS]

01:36:17 ◼   ► they've made one type of mattress it's a hybrid mattress that combines premium [TS]

01:36:21 ◼   ► latex foam with memory foam and it gives you what they call just the right bounce [TS]

01:36:26 ◼   ► just the right sink its nnn in a way that you're never gonna be able to tell [TS]

01:36:31 ◼   ► by just laying on a mattress in a retail store for 30 seconds and saying I guess [TS]

01:36:35 ◼   ► it feels good [TS]

01:36:36 ◼   ► this is a mattress that's been engineered to give you a great night [TS]

01:36:38 ◼   ► sleep trust mattress experts right you normal people buy a mattress once every [TS]

01:36:44 ◼   ► you don't know five years ten years something like that [TS]

01:36:47 ◼   ► how are you going to become an expert buying a mattress if that's how often [TS]

01:36:50 ◼   ► you try them out these are engineers who did like devoted their life they've got [TS]

01:36:54 ◼   ► you know mattress engineers Casper let them just do it for you [TS]

01:36:58 ◼   ► regular mattresses often cost well over fifteen hundred dollars casper [TS]

01:37:03 ◼   ► mattresses here's their prices $500 for twin size 604 twin XL 754 full 854 queen [TS]

01:37:10 ◼   ► and just nine hundred fifty bucks for a king-size mattress now they definitely [TS]

01:37:15 ◼   ► understand that buying a mattress online can have customers wondering how that's [TS]

01:37:19 ◼   ► even possible number one because they eat they build a matter of these this [TS]

01:37:23 ◼   ► this combination of latex foam and memory foam they can pack the mattress [TS]

01:37:28 ◼   ► into what for a mattress is a remarkably small box so shipping they don't ship [TS]

01:37:33 ◼   ► mattress size boxes they ship these little sort of dorm room refrigerator [TS]

01:37:37 ◼   ► size boxes shows up here at your house you put in a rumor you want and you open [TS]

01:37:42 ◼   ► it up according to instructions and then it just sucks air in from your room and [TS]

01:37:45 ◼   ► all the sudden it goes from being this little box to being a mattress on it's [TS]

01:37:50 ◼   ► completely risk-free so number one shipping is easy you have to worry about [TS]

01:37:55 ◼   ► it number two what if you don't actually like what if you listen to me and tell [TS]

01:37:58 ◼   ► you that has just the right sink just the right balance and then you get this [TS]

01:38:01 ◼   ► in your bedroom and you're like this doesn't have the right sink doesn't have [TS]

01:38:04 ◼   ► the right balance [TS]

01:38:04 ◼   ► I don't like it they give you a hundred day . where if you don't like it did [TS]

01:38:11 ◼   ► they'll just take it away for free free return can all your money back no [TS]

01:38:15 ◼   ► questions asked no hard sell up to a hundred days you got threats over three [TS]

01:38:19 ◼   ► months where you can just sleep on it every night and decide whether you [TS]

01:38:23 ◼   ► actually like it whether it's actually as good a mattress as I'm telling you [TS]

01:38:27 ◼   ► that it is i think in the when they first started sponsoring the show that [TS]

01:38:30 ◼   ► was like a lower number like 60 days or something like that and they've upped it [TS]

01:38:34 ◼   ► to a hundred days because that's how few people were sending back these [TS]

01:38:37 ◼   ► mattresses [TS]

01:38:38 ◼   ► so here's what you get this is just win-win all around you get a great [TS]

01:38:43 ◼   ► mattress you save tons of time versus going out and buying on retail its way [TS]

01:38:48 ◼   ► easier to have delivered [TS]

01:38:50 ◼   ► ah and you have no risk so you get a great mattress at a great price and you [TS]

01:38:54 ◼   ► save lots of time and you have no risk so you can't lose [TS]

01:38:58 ◼   ► last but not least [TS]

01:39:00 ◼   ► casper mattresses are made in America right here in United States so where do [TS]

01:39:05 ◼   ► you go to find out more go to Casper calm / the talkshow Casper calm / the [TS]

01:39:11 ◼   ► talk show and just by using that link you will get 50 bucks towards any [TS]

01:39:17 ◼   ► mattress you purchase so you'll save money and don't know you came from the [TS]

01:39:20 ◼   ► show at casper dot-com / the talk show anything is going to talk about before [TS]

01:39:27 ◼   ► we talk about our bourbon collections you know one thing we didn't talk about [TS]

01:39:32 ◼   ► with amazon is the echo which i think is actually super important to them maybe [TS]

01:39:38 ◼   ► not you know like monetarily yet but i think it's actually very very Amazon II [TS]

01:39:43 ◼   ► have you played with that thing at all you know i haven't I I kiss you had to [TS]

01:39:47 ◼   ► sign up for it and then again on a list and I didn't feel like doing it and I [TS]

01:39:50 ◼   ► wish I had because I wish I had one [TS]

01:39:53 ◼   ► oh yeah i mean that the integrations are starting to really kick into gear now [TS]

01:39:58 ◼   ► like you you know if it works with it so you can tell Alexa which is the [TS]

01:40:04 ◼   ► assistant named if they've chosen these are all women why are the women they're [TS]

01:40:08 ◼   ► all women in America is actually different it's actually a have to find [TS]

01:40:12 ◼   ► the link but it's actually interesting control thing [TS]

01:40:14 ◼   ► it's a cultural thing around the world hmm interesting [TS]

01:40:18 ◼   ► now look at that sounds interesting yeah so yeah you tell her way you know turn [TS]

01:40:23 ◼   ► off my lights reading the news [TS]

01:40:26 ◼   ► whatever like the new thing I think is even built into amazon's thing but it [TS]

01:40:29 ◼   ► the external external integrations are are growing like you're just being a [TS]

01:40:33 ◼   ► larger than our larger number of external apps or hardware supporting it [TS]

01:40:38 ◼   ► so you can just basically you know computer bring me the news or computer [TS]

01:40:44 ◼   ► what temperature is it you know things like that and i think that's a pretty [TS]

01:40:48 ◼   ► compelling use case and the hey Siri thing obviously in the iphone is Apple's [TS]

01:40:53 ◼   ► approach to that and then amazon doesn't have obviously they don't have a fire [TS]

01:40:58 ◼   ► fun and every home so they can't do that [TS]

01:41:01 ◼   ► uh so they had to go this route and it's sort of like an ordering thing you can [TS]

01:41:06 ◼   ► order of course stuff from Amazon with that and then you can ask it things just [TS]

01:41:11 ◼   ► seems like a really really cool thing [TS]

01:41:13 ◼   ► bc there's tons of creep factor too but it seems like a really cool thing [TS]

01:41:17 ◼   ► yeah and I wonder at in a broad perspective whether or not you know and [TS]

01:41:22 ◼   ► clearly that's that this sort of AI base interface you know conversational way I [TS]

01:41:28 ◼   ► you know it's it's you know it's the house and 2001 really is that the end [TS]

01:41:33 ◼   ► goal where you have a computer that is a fully functioning or seems like a fully [TS]

01:41:37 ◼   ► functional extension it attention person that you can communicate with and that [TS]

01:41:42 ◼   ► you don't have to think about structuring your commands in a certain [TS]

01:41:44 ◼   ► syntax or knowing that you can only you can ask about sports and weather and [TS]

01:41:50 ◼   ► news but you can't really just you know talk to it and a conversation with that [TS]

01:41:55 ◼   ► to where you can where you can just talk to it the way you would talk to a person [TS]

01:41:59 ◼   ► that clearly that's the way a lot of this stuff is going i mean it's it's [TS]

01:42:04 ◼   ► apples doing a Google is doing in amazon's doing it [TS]

01:42:07 ◼   ► I wonder at a basic level it if it's better to just have a device like Alexa [TS]

01:42:14 ◼   ► where that's the only interface as opposed to the way that android phones [TS]

01:42:19 ◼   ► are gaining these you know [TS]

01:42:21 ◼   ► ok Google commands in the way that hey Siri is being added to I'm sorry for him [TS]

01:42:25 ◼   ► if I said that off for anybody [TS]

01:42:27 ◼   ► every time we've talked about this I'm surprised it didn't make someone call my [TS]

01:42:31 ◼   ► phone is right here next to me and it didn't just make a policy to say it in a [TS]

01:42:35 ◼   ► weird voice be like and so when you activate your highest theory when you [TS]

01:42:39 ◼   ► say that say those magic words whether there's a limit to $MONEY for a device [TS]

01:42:45 ◼   ► that's fundamentally about a home screen full of apps and you go and launch an [TS]

01:42:49 ◼   ► app and go back to the home screen go to another app which is a great its you [TS]

01:42:54 ◼   ► know obviously been great for the last 10 years for the iphone whether or not [TS]

01:42:57 ◼   ► there's a limit to how how good the Serie functions can be for a [TS]

01:43:02 ◼   ► conversational interface for the phone on a device that's fundamentally [TS]

01:43:05 ◼   ► app-based who you are you talking about the silos of data [TS]

01:43:11 ◼   ► well yes i love the data and just whether or not it's it's never going to [TS]

01:43:15 ◼   ► be as good as it could be just because it's it it's just never it just never [TS]

01:43:21 ◼   ► works out to glom and tall eyes miso constraints because of the constraints [TS]

01:43:25 ◼   ► it's going to be better [TS]

01:43:27 ◼   ► as it has to be right that's what I think yeah maybe yeah yeah maybe I mean [TS]

01:43:31 ◼   ► I think that the election thing is just the tip of the iceberg and you know of [TS]

01:43:35 ◼   ► course a Syrian ok Google do play into that too but a lot of these functions [TS]

01:43:40 ◼   ► are going to be massively improved by the introduction and application of AI [TS]

01:43:47 ◼   ► right i think a is very you know it's kicking into high gear right now it's [TS]

01:43:52 ◼   ► there's tons and tons of heat in the startup world about AI I'd like to refer [TS]

01:43:58 ◼   ► to a I and I'm you know forgive me somebody else's probably said this more [TS]

01:44:02 ◼   ► eloquently in the past i just haven't come across it but I I'd like to view it [TS]

01:44:06 ◼   ► as a technology that is additive thank you por AI into things and it makes [TS]

01:44:11 ◼   ► those things better right [TS]

01:44:12 ◼   ► whereas opposed to some other technologies are displacing technologies [TS]

01:44:15 ◼   ► they supplant or replace older things right you don't still keep a calculator [TS]

01:44:20 ◼   ► around and put AI in it you just use your phone your phone as a calculator in [TS]

01:44:24 ◼   ► it but not that replaced your calculator placed your camera I replaced your [TS]

01:44:28 ◼   ► whatever but hey I when you it's a technology and when you do put it our [TS]

01:44:34 ◼   ► and a disciplinary issue to color but when you put it into things it makes [TS]

01:44:38 ◼   ► things better and better able to understand better able to contextualize [TS]

01:44:41 ◼   ► your wishes and desires so it improves their functionality so something like [TS]

01:44:46 ◼   ► hey Siri with a fully functioning AI component not just like bits and bobs of [TS]

01:44:51 ◼   ► a theory applied to a chatbot ER applied to you know finding information but like [TS]

01:44:58 ◼   ► a really I system i mean i think that's pretty exciting and something like Alexa [TS]

01:45:02 ◼   ► allows you to take full advantage of that because it does say like what this [TS]

01:45:06 ◼   ► is the only way you can use me man like you just talk to me because I can I can [TS]

01:45:10 ◼   ► handle it you know i can get you there from here and that that future seems [TS]

01:45:15 ◼   ► very very compelling and if amazon wants to be in control of your home and in [TS]

01:45:20 ◼   ► control of the goods that in services that come in and out of your home then I [TS]

01:45:24 ◼   ► think that's a great place for them to be is right on your countertop right [TS]

01:45:28 ◼   ► yeah I don't do you have one of the house now i don't i'm talking about it [TS]

01:45:34 ◼   ► all out but i don't have 1i don't have literally it's just like I've seen other [TS]

01:45:37 ◼   ► ones in use and you know kind of dicked around and it's just [TS]

01:45:40 ◼   ► seems really cool i just haven't gotten around to ordering one because I'm we [TS]

01:45:44 ◼   ► use it we have this Amazon dash buttons like the ones you're talking about where [TS]

01:45:47 ◼   ► I'm like I'm good with those like I walked by my cat cabinet like Arnie [TS]

01:45:50 ◼   ► kitty litter and I just punch it [TS]

01:45:52 ◼   ► you know Jonas loves the Amazon dash buttons and so he like yeah but it's a [TS]

01:45:57 ◼   ► and he's either really is 12 so he's is you know he's not super young and he's a [TS]

01:46:03 ◼   ► relatively discipline kid we've never really had problems with him you know [TS]

01:46:07 ◼   ► doing anything out of control or you know like you know like trusting him [TS]

01:46:12 ◼   ► like with something like that but it's so appealing to him he really wants to [TS]

01:46:17 ◼   ► press the button and then he's like kind of press it again it was like no no you [TS]

01:46:21 ◼   ► cannot like like if we do not need more baby wipes right it's like will let you [TS]

01:46:28 ◼   ► do it once but like opening the the door just a bit to let him click the button [TS]

01:46:32 ◼   ► once it's not good because he wants to he just wants to go click the quickly [TS]

01:46:36 ◼   ► click very strange thing you want right right and I kind of enjoyed it a little [TS]

01:46:41 ◼   ► bit because I kind of would like to to I would just like to see like 37 cases a [TS]

01:46:47 ◼   ► paper towel show up at all right exactly like well i guess going to buy paper [TS]

01:46:53 ◼   ► towels prayer like it would be of it would be a fun thing to have delivered [TS]

01:46:59 ◼   ► yeah like well you have that a 50-gallon double loop so you're trying to clean it [TS]

01:47:03 ◼   ► up with oh so sorry nei dik rest on that but I just thought that I think that's [TS]

01:47:10 ◼   ► an interesting bit of their business [TS]

01:47:11 ◼   ► I'll i definitely agree and I think I either the other thing that it has is ok [TS]

01:47:17 ◼   ► so they try would we talk about that they tried to make a phone and they [TS]

01:47:20 ◼   ► didn't make a phone [TS]

01:47:21 ◼   ► well maybe the phone business is over in terms of these little for 25 inch pieces [TS]

01:47:28 ◼   ► of touch screen glass that go in our pocket and the answer is it's the iphone [TS]

01:47:32 ◼   ► and android and that's right that's who you know those are the two that that one [TS]

01:47:37 ◼   ► out [TS]

01:47:38 ◼   ► what's the next thing the next thing you know in terms of hey what about like [TS]

01:47:43 ◼   ► ubiquitous computer that you just speak to that there is no winner and that yet [TS]

01:47:47 ◼   ► and so then it's you know that's open territory where they still have a chance [TS]

01:47:50 ◼   ► to win whereas the touchscreen interface that you know is on the piece of glass [TS]

01:47:55 ◼   ► that you carry in your pocket too late [TS]

01:47:59 ◼   ► yep I think you might be right I it's hard at this point to foresee anybody [TS]

01:48:05 ◼   ► really chipping a major chunk out of that particular business but there are [TS]

01:48:09 ◼   ► plenty of other businesses and plenty of other ways for people to interact with [TS]

01:48:13 ◼   ► you know I like I set of data data farm somewhere and in idaho so there's no [TS]

01:48:19 ◼   ► guarantee that the pocket computer is the only interface that were ever going [TS]

01:48:24 ◼   ► to have that that really has a enormous effect on the market so i think the [TS]

01:48:28 ◼   ► people's best efforts are placed elsewhere i linked to a couple pieces [TS]

01:48:31 ◼   ► and last few days one from tom warren at the verge and then Paul Thurrott piece [TS]

01:48:36 ◼   ► just on [TS]

01:48:37 ◼   ► hey I think windows phone might it might be time to just call it you know call it [TS]

01:48:42 ◼   ► I you know it's funny I i feel like the PC link to the at the verge maybe I was [TS]

01:48:48 ◼   ► too flippin I didn't want to come across as as gloating or you know happy about [TS]

01:48:53 ◼   ► it if anything I'm a little sad like and I kind of feel the same way about [TS]

01:48:56 ◼   ► Windows Phone that I felt about webos the palm touchscreen thing which was [TS]

01:49:01 ◼   ► that this is clearly nicely enough designed that if ya if market share were [TS]

01:49:07 ◼   ► distributed fairly on the basis of design quality it did I don't know where [TS]

01:49:13 ◼   ► the what number Windows Phone would have wound up with but it would have been a [TS]

01:49:17 ◼   ► big enough number that it was healthy platform like maybe it still would have [TS]

01:49:21 ◼   ► been third place but it it wouldn't have been you know would have been like third [TS]

01:49:25 ◼   ► place with a different distance chunk of that pie and that's just not how it's [TS]

01:49:31 ◼   ► just not you know and that famously that's big [TS]

01:49:34 ◼   ► you know it led wall street collectively to say design doesn't matter because you [TS]

01:49:39 ◼   ► know back when Apple was doing very poorly in the late nineties mid to late [TS]

01:49:42 ◼   ► nineties everybody would say well you know apple stuff is way better design [TS]

01:49:46 ◼   ► than pcs and microsoft software and the market would say well there's proof that [TS]

01:49:50 ◼   ► design doesn't matter [TS]

01:49:51 ◼   ► i would say what was actually proves that design is not enough that you did [TS]

01:49:55 ◼   ► it needs to be part of a compelling story and that it certainly doesn't hurt [TS]

01:50:00 ◼   ► and it can help and it's allowed Apple to sort of build this sustainable [TS]

01:50:06 ◼   ► success story but it's just not enough and that to me is somebody who cares so [TS]

01:50:11 ◼   ► much about design it's just sort of sad to see windows phone not really take off [TS]

01:50:16 ◼   ► because it's certainly a lot of original thinking and I you know the times I've [TS]

01:50:20 ◼   ► spent with the windows phone I've enjoyed it more way more than i have 1 [TS]

01:50:23 ◼   ► i've tried an android phone other than a factor or any apps for right right that [TS]

01:50:29 ◼   ► first party stuff is pretty much all you enjoy because the third party stuff is [TS]

01:50:33 ◼   ► if it's there it's usually not built extremely well or or never got the [TS]

01:50:37 ◼   ► chance to be I was like the hardware i'm like i said the original lumia i [TS]

01:50:43 ◼   ► reviewed that thing the original rounded corner model was that [TS]

01:50:47 ◼   ► 850 I can't believe you're right i'm gonna get the number wrong are probably [TS]

01:50:51 ◼   ► but I just love damage just so like physical laws engine material that they [TS]

01:50:56 ◼   ► used was just warming your hands and actually it was a luxurious [TS]

01:50:59 ◼   ► polycarbonate and I know that you can say that you're just looking for a fancy [TS]

01:51:05 ◼   ► word for plastic but it in just felt like because the board plasticky as an [TS]

01:51:10 ◼   ► adjective has a negative connotation it just isn't fair to call it plastics that [TS]

01:51:14 ◼   ► really felt like a high-quality material [TS]

01:51:16 ◼   ► yeah at the time all the iphones were hard-edged and the end that it provided [TS]

01:51:21 ◼   ► a nice contrast and of course now the iphones are back to feeling more organic [TS]

01:51:25 ◼   ► which I appreciate but I think that definitely would stood out and it was [TS]

01:51:29 ◼   ► well designed and it was a beautiful piece of kit and I thought that their OS [TS]

01:51:33 ◼   ► did compliment that you know slightly pull nose touch screen and everything [TS]

01:51:37 ◼   ► that they did about it I thought it would complement it's all very well but [TS]

01:51:41 ◼   ► it goes to show as you mentioned it's you know execution at scale is not just [TS]

01:51:46 ◼   ► about design you can't just be like this is beautiful piece of thing because it [TS]

01:51:50 ◼   ► you know that doesn't always work we look at the DeLorean you know right yeah [TS]

01:51:55 ◼   ► I think and I really do think it's existed a lot longer than webos did this [TS]

01:51:59 ◼   ► windows phone simply by the races of the app Microsoft's willingness to absorb [TS]

01:52:04 ◼   ► losses [TS]

01:52:05 ◼   ► quarter after quarter after quarter to try to get this thing off the ground but [TS]

01:52:09 ◼   ► it's getting to the point like the year-over-year sales of the windows [TS]

01:52:13 ◼   ► phone for the holiday quarter the drop was terrible i mean it was like a [TS]

01:52:17 ◼   ► 40-percent drop which is for a platform that was already really struggling in [TS]

01:52:22 ◼   ► terms of market share [TS]

01:52:23 ◼   ► yeah 1.1 percent of the market is not gonna cut it [TS]

01:52:27 ◼   ► yeah and even if you want to and I don't even know what you compare it to i mean [TS]

01:52:31 ◼   ► i guess the best compared to it be maybe the max market share at the edits nadir [TS]

01:52:36 ◼   ► at you know circa I don't know 1999-2000 or so you know which was maybe worldwide [TS]

01:52:44 ◼   ► something like two percent two or three percent of the pc market but it was a [TS]

01:52:49 ◼   ► different it wasn't just like that Apple had any any two to three percent of the [TS]

01:52:53 ◼   ► market it wasn't like a random to three percent which i think would have been [TS]

01:52:57 ◼   ► completely unsustainable who is the fact that they had very specific to three [TS]

01:53:00 ◼   ► percent like largely in north america so that it wasn't spread out across the [TS]

01:53:05 ◼   ► world that certain industries like the design industry where their market share [TS]

01:53:10 ◼   ► was you know way into the double digits and so it could sustain things like [TS]

01:53:16 ◼   ► graphic design apps and you know there are certain types of you know [TS]

01:53:22 ◼   ► third-party apps that apple and a mac always had an advantage over windows for [TS]

01:53:26 ◼   ► because they're all the people who cared about having really good quality in the [TS]

01:53:31 ◼   ► apps were all by itself definition they were they were mac users whereas Windows [TS]

01:53:37 ◼   ► Windows Phones one to two percent of the market doesn't really have any kind of [TS]

01:53:40 ◼   ► cohesion like that it's not a compelling target for anything in terms of software [TS]

01:53:44 ◼   ► development [TS]

01:53:45 ◼   ► yep yep exactly you can't build it and they will come [TS]

01:53:49 ◼   ► it's gotta go together [TS]

01:53:52 ◼   ► I last but not least everything I ever talked about was this to talk about [TS]

01:53:56 ◼   ► bourbon you do this thing excuse for this whole thing right [TS]

01:54:00 ◼   ► yeah you'd you're starting to annoy me though because you you'll do this thing [TS]

01:54:03 ◼   ► where you'll get you'll feel like make a run and find some kind of amazing find [TS]

01:54:08 ◼   ► to add to your liquor your ear your liquor cabinet at home and it's gotten [TS]

01:54:14 ◼   ► to the point where like he you've got so much good stuff there that I'm i'm sort [TS]

01:54:20 ◼   ► of annoyed [TS]

01:54:21 ◼   ► well I mean you're welcome to come over and drink it [TS]

01:54:25 ◼   ► I mean you gotta come to fresno but people often but I bring it up because I [TS]

01:54:29 ◼   ► I get it on people not just people know that I like to drink and people know [TS]

01:54:33 ◼   ► that you know the sweetness of the brown liquors that your Bourbons your eyes or [TS]

01:54:39 ◼   ► are the ones that are sort of up my alley and ones are more interested in [TS]

01:54:42 ◼   ► and I get so I get people asking for my advice and I often don't know how to [TS]

01:54:46 ◼   ► answer like I feel like I know more than most people and I have very strong [TS]

01:54:50 ◼   ► opinions on it but I but to me it's very hard to answer a hard question to answer [TS]

01:54:56 ◼   ► yeah I did it is i get this thing when people come over you know we will come [TS]

01:55:01 ◼   ► over to the house and be like you know my cayo yeah would you like a drink or [TS]

01:55:04 ◼   ► something you know you know what solar water and you want to drink and because [TS]

01:55:08 ◼   ► I don't you know like to force people to trick if they don't want to but when [TS]

01:55:13 ◼   ► they come over and go oh no you're not sure why a while have anything I don't [TS]

01:55:17 ◼   ► care and that's like the hardest remember when they don't scream like [TS]

01:55:20 ◼   ► well crap what do I give them you know because you know they're as we've talked [TS]

01:55:25 ◼   ► about this before but there's some have a big bourbon fan like I like bourbon [TS]

01:55:28 ◼   ► like whiskey to what I like bourbon a lot and so there's some kind of bourbon [TS]

01:55:33 ◼   ► and whiskey that are extremely challenging to the palate like they're [TS]

01:55:37 ◼   ► very aggressive or they are very high alcohol content and they can be [TS]

01:55:40 ◼   ► appreciated for what they are which could just drop that on someone like him [TS]

01:55:44 ◼   ► in the face with a hammer when they ask you for like a you know kiss [TS]

01:55:47 ◼   ► it's like goodness they're not gonna have a good time and they're not you [TS]

01:55:51 ◼   ► know they're good at what you do this to me this is not very nice [TS]

01:55:53 ◼   ► so you have to start them off with something that's simpler you know that [TS]

01:55:57 ◼   ► less less complex and has just a couple of really simple notes that they can [TS]

01:56:02 ◼   ► take and palate but then the instinct is to want to give them the good [TS]

01:56:06 ◼   ► because you like you're my guest and I want you to taste this amazing you know [TS]

01:56:10 ◼   ► thing but usually the quote-unquote good stuff this person comes to my bourbon [TS]

01:56:15 ◼   ► and that kind of hooch is it's like really aggressive in a really [TS]

01:56:19 ◼   ► challenging and so you just got to kind of go like and i'll start off with this [TS]

01:56:23 ◼   ► you know and that's why I typically start them off with like you know Elijah [TS]

01:56:27 ◼   ► Craig which is a really solid I know you like that's up to you [TS]

01:56:31 ◼   ► yeah it's really solid bourbon and it tastes good it's easy to drink and you [TS]

01:56:36 ◼   ► know it feels good in the belly and it's nice little kind of warming up for the [TS]

01:56:40 ◼   ► throat and everything [TS]

01:56:42 ◼   ► yeah I know exactly what you're talking about i have only I looked before we [TS]

01:56:45 ◼   ► started recording and I have to like special bottles of both actually rise or [TS]

01:56:51 ◼   ► neither more Bourbons but i have two special like really hard to find bottles [TS]

01:56:56 ◼   ► in my collection right now and actually I've never opened either of them i have [TS]

01:57:00 ◼   ► a Thomas H handy Sazerac straight rye whiskey now that's 64 and this is I love [TS]

01:57:07 ◼   ► it [TS]

01:57:07 ◼   ► you can tell it's literally like really really small batch because it's just [TS]

01:57:11 ◼   ► written on the label with a sharpie it says 6464 . two percent alcohol by [TS]

01:57:16 ◼   ► volume which is what is them improve but I so it's like a hundred twenty-eight [TS]

01:57:21 ◼   ► proof route most Bourbons and rise or somewhere between 45 / steel right [TS]

01:57:29 ◼   ► somewhere a little north or south of forty-five percent alcohol by volume [TS]

01:57:32 ◼   ► right which is 90 proof and that's what most people would consider to be very [TS]

01:57:38 ◼   ► very very drinkable alcohol by volume and then i have from will it i have this [TS]