Under the Radar

00:00:00 ◼   ► welcome to under the radar a show about

00:00:02 ◼   ► independent iOS app development I'm

00:00:04 ◼   ► Marco Arment and I'm David Smith under

00:00:06 ◼   ► the radar is never longer than 30

00:00:08 ◼   ► minutes so let's get started so today we

00:00:10 ◼   ► wanted to talk a little bit about how

00:00:12 ◼   ► the the goldrush days for the App Store

00:00:16 ◼   ► and the the Apple ecosystem seem to be

00:00:19 ◼   ► probably over and so kind of you know

00:00:22 ◼   ► what's different now how we change the

00:00:25 ◼   ► way we do things as a result of that and

00:00:27 ◼   ► maybe you know how we can look towards

00:00:30 ◼   ► the future what's likely to happen in

00:00:32 ◼   ► the future what do you think sure yeah

00:00:34 ◼   ► because it's it's a funny thing with

00:00:36 ◼   ► this to call it an apps like a gold rush

00:00:38 ◼   ► we're obviously you know like that's

00:00:39 ◼   ► hearkening back to the days when you

00:00:42 ◼   ► know people would someone find gold

00:00:43 ◼   ► somewhere in a valley you know out west

00:00:46 ◼   ► or wherever and everyone would rush in

00:00:48 ◼   ► and try and grab all the gold as much as

00:00:50 ◼   ► they could before it all went away and

00:00:53 ◼   ► there's some parallels to that in the

00:00:54 ◼   ► sense of like the nature of a gold rush

00:00:56 ◼   ► is that it's this very sort of temporary

00:00:57 ◼   ► thing but it's interesting to me with

00:01:00 ◼   ► the app stores where and well first it's

00:01:03 ◼   ► amusing that I remember Apple actually

00:01:04 ◼   ► even referred to the app stores as gold

00:01:07 ◼   ► rushes I have this great in this like

00:01:10 ◼   ► flashbulb memory of Scott Forstall in

00:01:13 ◼   ► the intro video for the iPad with his

00:01:17 ◼   ► like the way he sort of can get really

00:01:18 ◼   ► intense with big eyes saying and we're

00:01:20 ◼   ► expecting a whole new gold rush it's

00:01:23 ◼   ► also a little bit funny that it's also

00:01:25 ◼   ► in San Francisco yeah that's true

00:01:27 ◼   ► they've been there you know their sports

00:01:29 ◼   ► team is the 49ers and it's all very

00:01:33 ◼   ► relevant but it's even they're like

00:01:35 ◼   ► Apple embraced it that this was this

00:01:36 ◼   ► whole big thing it was part of the

00:01:37 ◼   ► marketing of like trying to get people

00:01:39 ◼   ► onto the platform and developing forward

00:01:41 ◼   ► is that there's this feeling of like

00:01:42 ◼   ► there's all this opportunity and it's

00:01:44 ◼   ► all the fake this capability that is

00:01:46 ◼   ► time limited so you need to get in there

00:01:48 ◼   ► and you need to you know grab as much as

00:01:50 ◼   ► you can and in many ways that was true

00:01:52 ◼   ► they weren't lying about that I don't

00:01:53 ◼   ► think but it's weird now because they've

00:01:56 ◼   ► launched three app stores subsequently

00:01:59 ◼   ► or I guess for if you can count the Mac

00:02:02 ◼   ► App Store but I'm not sure that you

00:02:04 ◼   ► should but for the purposes of this

00:02:06 ◼   ► discussion like they've launched three

00:02:07 ◼   ► that are relevant to iOS where they

00:02:09 ◼   ► launched the

00:02:11 ◼   ► t the TV OS App Store they launched the

00:02:14 ◼   ► watch app store and they launched the

00:02:16 ◼   ► iMessage app store and I can't think of

00:02:18 ◼   ► the only example out of any of those

00:02:20 ◼   ► that I can think of where someone had

00:02:22 ◼   ► like this big public like you know the

00:02:26 ◼   ► store you seen wired or you see on the

00:02:27 ◼   ► verge or somewhere where it's like you

00:02:29 ◼   ► know developer makes two hundred

00:02:30 ◼   ► thousand dollars in two weeks with five

00:02:32 ◼   ► minutes worth of work kind of stories

00:02:34 ◼   ► and I other than the app phonies which

00:02:37 ◼   ► was an iMessage app that lets you trick

00:02:39 ◼   ► your friends into thinking that they had

00:02:41 ◼   ► said things they didn't which eventually

00:02:43 ◼   ► got pulled from the App Store shocked

00:02:44 ◼   ► reasonably well yes but did reasonably

00:02:48 ◼   ► well like that's the only one out of

00:02:49 ◼   ► those three stores which is not to say

00:02:51 ◼   ► that there's no money to be made on

00:02:52 ◼   ► these stores but it's a very different

00:02:54 ◼   ► mentality I think it's also just a very

00:02:56 ◼   ► different type of thing that succeeds in

00:03:00 ◼   ► these different stores so in the case of

00:03:02 ◼   ► iMessage I think the the promise of

00:03:04 ◼   ► iMessage apps that aren't sticker packs

00:03:06 ◼   ► just apps in iMessage has mostly been

00:03:10 ◼   ► shown to not really be a thing after all

00:03:12 ◼   ► maybe that'll change over time but you

00:03:15 ◼   ► know what when Apple was announcing all

00:03:17 ◼   ► this stuff this past summer and

00:03:19 ◼   ► launching it in the fall you know

00:03:21 ◼   ► whenever Apple launches something new

00:03:22 ◼   ► some kind of new ability for an app or a

00:03:25 ◼   ► new type of app store or a whole new

00:03:26 ◼   ► device that will have an app store we've

00:03:29 ◼   ► said in past episodes we've talked about

00:03:31 ◼   ► how like you know it's there's there's

00:03:33 ◼   ► usually a good chance of success if you

00:03:36 ◼   ► are there on day one

00:03:37 ◼   ► doing something doing the new thing that

00:03:39 ◼   ► wasn't possible before and I think

00:03:41 ◼   ► that's still true but I think what we're

00:03:43 ◼   ► seeing is that you know even Apple

00:03:45 ◼   ► doesn't know before they launch these

00:03:47 ◼   ► things which ones will be successful and

00:03:49 ◼   ► which ones have launched and even Apple

00:03:52 ◼   ► is just guessing about that they're you

00:03:54 ◼   ► know they they made this entire app

00:03:57 ◼   ► store ecosystem for the watch and it

00:04:00 ◼   ► turns out that the Apple watch really is

00:04:03 ◼   ► not a hot place for launching new apps

00:04:06 ◼   ► you know it you can and some apps have

00:04:08 ◼   ► done okay on the watch but it's not

00:04:10 ◼   ► really like this like gold rush the way

00:04:12 ◼   ► the way it was back for the iPhone and

00:04:14 ◼   ► briefly for the iPad and you know the TV

00:04:17 ◼   ► I think we can look at the TV and we can

00:04:19 ◼   ► say pretty similarly you know the Apple

00:04:23 ◼   ► TV we we all

00:04:25 ◼   ► thought when it launched we know that

00:04:27 ◼   ► now now that we can make apps for the TV

00:04:29 ◼   ► easily for the first time now there will

00:04:32 ◼   ► be all new kinds of apps new types of

00:04:35 ◼   ► things that we can't even think of and I

00:04:37 ◼   ► think it turns out that we haven't

00:04:39 ◼   ► thought of them yet and you know a year

00:04:41 ◼   ► a year and a half or whatever it's been

00:04:43 ◼   ► in we still haven't thought of them and

00:04:46 ◼   ► it's unfortunate that what succeeds on

00:04:49 ◼   ► the Apple TV is basically stuff that

00:04:51 ◼   ► makes sense would succeed on Apple TV

00:04:52 ◼   ► which is like video apps for different

00:04:55 ◼   ► providers and occasionally a game but

00:04:58 ◼   ► even then the gaming market for it I

00:05:00 ◼   ► think has largely not materialized and

00:05:02 ◼   ► we can talk about why but it doesn't

00:05:04 ◼   ► really matter that you know that the

00:05:05 ◼   ► facts are basically the Apple TV app

00:05:07 ◼   ► market is really not a place where

00:05:10 ◼   ► Indies have much action to be had and

00:05:13 ◼   ► most people with Apple TVs are not

00:05:15 ◼   ► really browsing the App Store regularly

00:05:17 ◼   ► and finding new stuff and downloading it

00:05:18 ◼   ► and paying for and everything else

00:05:19 ◼   ► that's not really happening any no same

00:05:22 ◼   ► thing I think with the watch and I think

00:05:23 ◼   ► the the iMessage store is just the most

00:05:28 ◼   ► recent example of this you know it when

00:05:30 ◼   ► when the app stores were launching back

00:05:32 ◼   ► in 2008 and and then later in the iPad

00:05:35 ◼   ► launch in 2010 when that was really

00:05:38 ◼   ► beginning when things were really hot

00:05:39 ◼   ► back then this whole market was like

00:05:41 ◼   ► totally untapped it was like a the fresh

00:05:44 ◼   ► you know green Osia whatever whatever

00:05:46 ◼   ► business people call it and they're

00:05:48 ◼   ► gonna get whatever time some oceans are

00:05:50 ◼   ► green so so the fresh fresh blue field

00:05:53 ◼   ► and it there was it was easier back then

00:05:57 ◼   ► to succeed because there was less there

00:05:59 ◼   ► there was less history there and people

00:06:02 ◼   ► were actually really excited to get

00:06:04 ◼   ► these new kinds of devices and then

00:06:06 ◼   ► browse around and throw money around and

00:06:08 ◼   ► see what what can they now do they

00:06:10 ◼   ► couldn't do before or what could this

00:06:12 ◼   ► new device that they just got for the

00:06:13 ◼   ► first time do and then what we've seen

00:06:16 ◼   ► since then basically is that every new

00:06:19 ◼   ► every additional platform or store or

00:06:22 ◼   ► capability that has launched since then

00:06:24 ◼   ► and that has that has provided us

00:06:26 ◼   ► opportunities that didn't exist before

00:06:27 ◼   ► since then every one of those is

00:06:30 ◼   ► seemingly smaller than than the last one

00:06:33 ◼   ► or has less potential for Indies than

00:06:35 ◼   ► the last one and it's not because Apple

00:06:38 ◼   ► is some you know

00:06:39 ◼   ► corporate sellout or anything it's not

00:06:40 ◼   ► that at all it's that just the nature of

00:06:43 ◼   ► these stores and devices and abilities

00:06:46 ◼   ► like the low-hanging fruit was picked

00:06:48 ◼   ► long ago and now we're going into these

00:06:50 ◼   ► more and more specialized areas more and

00:06:52 ◼   ► more specialized markets and adding

00:06:55 ◼   ► these kind of like niche abilities and

00:06:57 ◼   ► niche demands to the various product

00:06:59 ◼   ► lines into the various app stores and

00:07:01 ◼   ► SDKs so I think this was inevitable this

00:07:04 ◼   ► like III think the this this kind of

00:07:06 ◼   ► cooling down of the gold rush like I

00:07:08 ◼   ► think this happens to most gold rushes

00:07:09 ◼   ► that's usually why they're called a gold

00:07:11 ◼   ► rush and not like a gold you know

00:07:13 ◼   ► forever age of stability and no that's

00:07:16 ◼   ► like when things cool down and the

00:07:18 ◼   ► markets mature like this just happens so

00:07:21 ◼   ► I think this was largely inevitable I

00:07:24 ◼   ► think there's not a lot a polluter

00:07:27 ◼   ► really change it and instead it's our

00:07:31 ◼   ► job as the developers as people trying

00:07:33 ◼   ► to make a business in this ecosystem

00:07:35 ◼   ► it's our job not to just yell at Apple

00:07:39 ◼   ► to change things that they can't really

00:07:40 ◼   ► change but instead to adapt what we do

00:07:43 ◼   ► to basically be more compatible with

00:07:46 ◼   ► this new market and to be more likely to

00:07:50 ◼   ► succeed and that's partly been what this

00:07:51 ◼   ► entire series has been about this whole

00:07:54 ◼   ► podcast that we do for the last year

00:07:56 ◼   ► it's basically been all about this it's

00:07:58 ◼   ► basically been how do you succeed in

00:08:00 ◼   ► today's market not in the gold rush of

00:08:03 ◼   ► 2008 but how do you succeed today in the

00:08:07 ◼   ► realities of today's market and that

00:08:09 ◼   ► often requires changes in the way we do

00:08:12 ◼   ► things changes in the would in our

00:08:13 ◼   ► expectations and and just kind of a more

00:08:17 ◼   ► realistic and pragmatic view of how we

00:08:20 ◼   ► operated what we should make yeah

00:08:22 ◼   ► because I think in a lot of ways these

00:08:23 ◼   ► things come down to the balance of

00:08:27 ◼   ► supply and demand

00:08:29 ◼   ► that's like anything and even vaguely

00:08:31 ◼   ► related to business always have an comes

00:08:33 ◼   ► down to supply and demand and I think

00:08:36 ◼   ► especially of how the reason that there

00:08:38 ◼   ► was such a so so much value to be taken

00:08:42 ◼   ► from the early days of the early of I

00:08:45 ◼   ► phone and I've had app stores is that

00:08:47 ◼   ► there was a strong demand for these

00:08:49 ◼   ► things and the supply

00:08:52 ◼   ► was almost non-existent and in a weird

00:08:55 ◼   ► way it makes me think of how like when

00:08:57 ◼   ► you take if you divide something by a

00:09:00 ◼   ► very small number you into put this just

00:09:02 ◼   ► massive number but as that as you divide

00:09:05 ◼   ► by a slightly a bigger and bigger number

00:09:07 ◼   ► of very quickly you start to shrink as a

00:09:09 ◼   ► result like the result which I don't

00:09:11 ◼   ► know why that comes to mind for me but

00:09:12 ◼   ► it's that kind of that impact that

00:09:13 ◼   ► because the number of apps in the App

00:09:16 ◼   ► Store was you know a few thousand a tens

00:09:19 ◼   ► of thousands the all of the demand was

00:09:22 ◼   ► concentrated on those and so the ability

00:09:25 ◼   ► for a developer to you know to stand out

00:09:27 ◼   ► from that and or even if you didn't even

00:09:29 ◼   ► stand out the ability to just exist and

00:09:31 ◼   ► make money was substantial and in

00:09:36 ◼   ► whereas now any of these things are

00:09:38 ◼   ► coming into an environment where the

00:09:40 ◼   ► demand is arguable whether it's gotten

00:09:43 ◼   ► down or not I'm not sure because I think

00:09:45 ◼   ► you know sending let's say something

00:09:46 ◼   ► like the watch my guess is Apple has

00:09:49 ◼   ► sold more Apple watches in the first

00:09:53 ◼   ► year of its existence then they had sold

00:09:57 ◼   ► iPhones in the you know in the year

00:10:00 ◼   ► after the App Store launched like the

00:10:03 ◼   ► install base for the Apple watch is

00:10:04 ◼   ► bigger almost certainly than it was for

00:10:06 ◼   ► the iPhone back in those days and yet

00:10:09 ◼   ► you know there's just I think oh the

00:10:11 ◼   ► reality is the supply of things is just

00:10:13 ◼   ► so much bigger proportionate to what it

00:10:16 ◼   ► was that the that kind of easy it's like

00:10:20 ◼   ► what what any good draw draws people to

00:10:23 ◼   ► a gold rush is the promise of easy money

00:10:26 ◼   ► that you don't have to work that hard to

00:10:30 ◼   ► you know just strike it rich it's sort

00:10:33 ◼   ► of this in this kind that you know going

00:10:35 ◼   ► all the way back to the mining right

00:10:36 ◼   ► it's like it's not that you need to

00:10:37 ◼   ► invest the hundreds of thousands of

00:10:39 ◼   ► dollars in to build you know building

00:10:42 ◼   ► this huge big mining operation and going

00:10:44 ◼   ► deep into mountains to pull out gold

00:10:45 ◼   ► it's like no nothing like you imagine a

00:10:47 ◼   ► gold rush it's like there's just gold

00:10:48 ◼   ► lying on the ground and you feel just

00:10:49 ◼   ► like walking around picking it out and I

00:10:52 ◼   ► feel like in this there's that same

00:10:53 ◼   ► difference where it's the like there is

00:10:57 ◼   ► still money to be made but it is

00:10:59 ◼   ► increasingly difficult and in a weird

00:11:02 ◼   ► way I feel like that's both good and bad

00:11:04 ◼   ► I like the feeling that in order to

00:11:07 ◼   ► succeed now you have to work in in a

00:11:12 ◼   ► more concrete way and it's harder to do

00:11:14 ◼   ► and there's fewer people who were able

00:11:15 ◼   ► to do it and so if you're somebody who

00:11:18 ◼   ► has the skills and the patience and the

00:11:21 ◼   ► sort of like I don't even know like

00:11:22 ◼   ► intuition to be able to navigate that

00:11:24 ◼   ► like you can still do it well and it's

00:11:26 ◼   ► harder to do so there's less competition

00:11:28 ◼   ► for it but on the flip side like I also

00:11:31 ◼   ► do remember quite lovingly the days back

00:11:33 ◼   ► in the FS are in the early app store

00:11:35 ◼   ► we're doing anything would you know it

00:11:37 ◼   ► gets you a reasonable amount of income

00:11:39 ◼   ► and you could very easily get attention

00:11:42 ◼   ► in the press or and all these types of

00:11:43 ◼   ► places me was never easy easy it wasn't

00:11:45 ◼   ► like literally just walks you know like

00:11:46 ◼   ► reaching down and picking up gold off

00:11:47 ◼   ► the ground but it was so much easier

00:11:50 ◼   ► than it was then and that was like nice

00:11:52 ◼   ► but it was also probably was just really

00:11:54 ◼   ► unsustainable because that attracts so

00:11:57 ◼   ► much attention and in the many ways to

00:12:00 ◼   ► probably creates a lot of bad habits and

00:12:04 ◼   ► perspectives as a developer like if I

00:12:07 ◼   ► had structured my business assuming that

00:12:09 ◼   ► that was those days we're always going

00:12:11 ◼   ► to continue I was going to be in for a

00:12:14 ◼   ► you know a saw surprise when it turns

00:12:16 ◼   ► out that's not the case and you know

00:12:18 ◼   ► you're I've had periods of the AppStore

00:12:20 ◼   ► since then where it's like my income

00:12:22 ◼   ► year-to-year has you know dropped by a

00:12:24 ◼   ► half or two thirds or things like that's

00:12:27 ◼   ► a pretty substantial robust change to

00:12:29 ◼   ► have to adapt to and especially if you

00:12:32 ◼   ► had gone the other like I've always

00:12:34 ◼   ► generally speaking been the sort of the

00:12:37 ◼   ► one-man low overhead type of developer

00:12:39 ◼   ► but imagine like it's got to be really

00:12:41 ◼   ► crazy if you were a developer who had

00:12:44 ◼   ► sort of staffed up as a result and had a

00:12:45 ◼   ► big team and it kind of been assuming

00:12:48 ◼   ► that those those salad days would going

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00:13:38 ◼   ► our show so I thought maybe we'd talk

00:13:41 ◼   ► about you know in the first you know the

00:13:44 ◼   ► first half we basically covered things

00:13:46 ◼   ► are worse here's me why basically things

00:13:49 ◼   ► are worse at harder now now I think it's

00:13:52 ◼   ► worth talking about strategies and

00:13:54 ◼   ► specifics about how we exist in a

00:13:58 ◼   ► sustainable healthy way in this new

00:14:00 ◼   ► environment realistically and and you

00:14:03 ◼   ► know you men should make before the

00:14:04 ◼   ► break that you've always kind of kept

00:14:06 ◼   ► things low overhead and just you for the

00:14:08 ◼   ► most part and and III think it's worth

00:14:12 ◼   ► going more into this you know you in

00:14:14 ◼   ► particular I think are you know

00:14:16 ◼   ► basically like the I think you are the

00:14:18 ◼   ► most pragmatic and prolific developer I

00:14:21 ◼   ► know because you try lots of things and

00:14:26 ◼   ► I think this is this is a a key survival

00:14:29 ◼   ► skill in this market in a tough market

00:14:32 ◼   ► where there's lots of competition and

00:14:33 ◼   ► lots of changes and it's generally kind

00:14:35 ◼   ► of cooling this to me is this is the key

00:14:39 ◼   ► is basically to try a lot of different

00:14:42 ◼   ► things and also critically I think the

00:14:45 ◼   ► way you do things is you tend to try

00:14:48 ◼   ► things without putting a massive amount

00:14:51 ◼   ► of budget and time into it before you

00:14:54 ◼   ► know whether it will it will succeed you

00:14:55 ◼   ► know it's I don't know if you subscribe

00:14:57 ◼   ► you like the minimal Viable Product

00:14:58 ◼   ► thing or not but I think what you do is

00:15:01 ◼   ► close to that in the sense that not that

00:15:04 ◼   ► you put out crap because you don't but

00:15:06 ◼   ► that you put out one point o's that you

00:15:09 ◼   ► didn't spend three years making be and

00:15:12 ◼   ► like you know 300 thousand dollars worth

00:15:14 ◼   ► every sort is like you know you're not

00:15:15 ◼   ► pouring all that into a 1.0 because you

00:15:17 ◼   ► don't know whether it'll succeed yet and

00:15:19 ◼   ► by doing it that way you're able to

00:15:21 ◼   ► launch a whole bunch of different stuff

00:15:23 ◼   ► you know over over a few years you

00:15:25 ◼   ► launch tons of apps and then you can see

00:15:28 ◼   ► what succeeds and then build on that

00:15:30 ◼   ► yeah

00:15:32 ◼   ► I think the thing that's probably my

00:15:33 ◼   ► best is to point out to is the reason I

00:15:37 ◼   ► take the approach I take is because of

00:15:40 ◼   ► what my goals are and for years now like

00:15:45 ◼   ► what I got into this business you know I

00:15:47 ◼   ► used to be a consultant and like there

00:15:50 ◼   ► are lots of problems with with new

00:15:52 ◼   ► consulting work but in general like the

00:15:54 ◼   ► nice thing about consulting is it's very

00:15:56 ◼   ► straightforward you do a certain amount

00:15:58 ◼   ► of hours of work you get a certain

00:16:00 ◼   ► amount of money for that work and the

00:16:01 ◼   ► uncertainty comes in can you have an ex

00:16:03 ◼   ► client but if you're you know if you're

00:16:05 ◼   ► a consultant of a reasonable quality

00:16:07 ◼   ► like finding work is usually had it

00:16:09 ◼   ► become as this becomes a natural

00:16:11 ◼   ► relatively straightforward process and

00:16:13 ◼   ► that for me would didn't like I did what

00:16:17 ◼   ► didn't appeal but didn't appeal to me

00:16:18 ◼   ► about that is that it I felt like I I

00:16:20 ◼   ► still always was sort of I never felt

00:16:23 ◼   ► secure and where I was because if I

00:16:25 ◼   ► didn't find an ex-client suddenly my

00:16:27 ◼   ► income drops to zero and so for me when

00:16:29 ◼   ► I got into products my goal was always

00:16:32 ◼   ► it's like can I take the approach of

00:16:36 ◼   ► being self-employed which is in both

00:16:37 ◼   ► cases was what I was going to do because

00:16:39 ◼   ► I just I fit fits better for my mindset

00:16:41 ◼   ► to be self-employed and as I can I be

00:16:43 ◼   ► self-employed in a way that provides

00:16:46 ◼   ► consistent predictable income into the

00:16:49 ◼   ► future not just predictable income in

00:16:52 ◼   ► the present which is what consulting was

00:16:54 ◼   ► and so I got into conducts in the hopes

00:16:56 ◼   ► that like creating what they like the

00:16:58 ◼   ► mythical passive income thing or you

00:17:01 ◼   ► make something and then it creates

00:17:03 ◼   ► income into the future rather than you

00:17:05 ◼   ► know doing work in the present that

00:17:06 ◼   ► creates money in the present and because

00:17:10 ◼   ► that became my goal like I didn't go set

00:17:13 ◼   ► out with the goal of striking it rich in

00:17:17 ◼   ► the way that you know you kind of it's I

00:17:19 ◼   ► get the impression this is a lot of what

00:17:21 ◼   ► a lot of game development or things or

00:17:22 ◼   ► movies or another example of an industry

00:17:24 ◼   ► where this is kind of the expectation or

00:17:26 ◼   ► venture capital even where it's your

00:17:28 ◼   ► goal is to have this massive runaway

00:17:30 ◼   ► success and that's what you're gearing

00:17:33 ◼   ► and aiming everything towards it's sort

00:17:36 ◼   ► of like more like you know when you're

00:17:37 ◼   ► going for the lottery approach whereas

00:17:40 ◼   ► with me and with the way I've structured

00:17:41 ◼   ► my business and then why I've done so

00:17:43 ◼   ► many apps over the year

00:17:45 ◼   ► why keep doing this over and over again

00:17:46 ◼   ► like I'm working on another app that

00:17:48 ◼   ► I'll be putting out by the hopefully by

00:17:49 ◼   ► the end of the year and it's because

00:17:52 ◼   ► what you the reality of having lots and

00:17:54 ◼   ► lots of things is that you end up with

00:17:56 ◼   ► tremendous diversity that both you

00:17:59 ◼   ► create opportunity for any of the

00:18:01 ◼   ► various products do well which is these

00:18:03 ◼   ► thank the simple version of that and

00:18:05 ◼   ► then also just in aggregate you know

00:18:08 ◼   ► five kind of not-so-great

00:18:11 ◼   ► results from a revenue or business

00:18:12 ◼   ► perspective add up to maybe one good

00:18:15 ◼   ► result and if one goes up and if it goes

00:18:18 ◼   ► down you out you end up in the same

00:18:20 ◼   ► place and like that in a weird way is

00:18:23 ◼   ► kind of boring like oh I want my

00:18:25 ◼   ► business to be as boring as possible

00:18:27 ◼   ► like in some ways I love when I look at

00:18:29 ◼   ► my revenue graphs and they're just

00:18:30 ◼   ► completely flat that's not what like

00:18:34 ◼   ► classic business wants you to do they

00:18:35 ◼   ► say oh it should be like where's it's

00:18:37 ◼   ► like up into this up and to the side I

00:18:38 ◼   ► want a hockey stick I want all these

00:18:40 ◼   ► things the signal I want it flat I

00:18:41 ◼   ► wasn't boring I want an approach that

00:18:45 ◼   ► doesn't really grow over time

00:18:48 ◼   ► I mean growth growth is great but it's

00:18:49 ◼   ► like I be I'll take flat over up and

00:18:52 ◼   ► down up and down up and down up and down

00:18:54 ◼   ► and so like for the approach I take and

00:18:56 ◼   ► this is why I think it works reasonably

00:18:57 ◼   ► well in the modern app store is that it

00:18:59 ◼   ► things are sure to the point that things

00:19:02 ◼   ► are kind of predictable but things are

00:19:04 ◼   ► you know if you are able to get a

00:19:07 ◼   ► certain amount owed

00:19:10 ◼   ► every day for the last six months it's

00:19:13 ◼   ► very unlikely that tomorrow that number

00:19:15 ◼   ► is going to go to zero like that's just

00:19:17 ◼   ► not the way the app like this is you end

00:19:19 ◼   ► up with all these structural advantages

00:19:22 ◼   ► in this sort of this modern system and I

00:19:25 ◼   ► think that is that it's Fred it's first

00:19:26 ◼   ► if I was talking to somebody who's

00:19:28 ◼   ► trying to get into this it's like making

00:19:29 ◼   ► sure that you understand what is your

00:19:31 ◼   ► goal like what would an ideal business

00:19:33 ◼   ► be looking forward to like what would

00:19:35 ◼   ► you like your business to look like and

00:19:37 ◼   ► then are you making choices to structure

00:19:39 ◼   ► it around that you know and for me I

00:19:40 ◼   ► want dead even boring flat boat you know

00:19:42 ◼   ► revenue so diversity is absolutely the

00:19:45 ◼   ► only way you're ever going to get that

00:19:47 ◼   ► kind of serve predictability in your

00:19:49 ◼   ► results and that's that's especially

00:19:51 ◼   ► important because you know and it leads

00:19:53 ◼   ► into a larger theme for me which is even

00:19:57 ◼   ► in the good times evenly

00:19:58 ◼   ► back with instant paper especially like

00:20:00 ◼   ► when the iPad launched that was a great

00:20:01 ◼   ► time for me that was the most money I've

00:20:03 ◼   ► ever made from anything in a year and

00:20:06 ◼   ► and everything I've done in the app

00:20:08 ◼   ► store since then has not reached that

00:20:10 ◼   ► level all of overcast you know the whole

00:20:13 ◼   ► time everything after that like

00:20:16 ◼   ► Instapaper during the first couple years

00:20:18 ◼   ► the iPad was really probably the peak of

00:20:20 ◼   ► my app sales career that I would

00:20:21 ◼   ► probably ever see and even then I knew I

00:20:26 ◼   ► I had in the back of my head the whole

00:20:28 ◼   ► time this will not last everything goes

00:20:32 ◼   ► up and down in the tech business in most

00:20:33 ◼   ► businesses but the technical seems to

00:20:35 ◼   ► just happen faster everything goes up

00:20:37 ◼   ► and down and when you have something

00:20:40 ◼   ► good when some when things are

00:20:42 ◼   ► succeeding it's very important to always

00:20:46 ◼   ► keep in mind this will end and plan for

00:20:49 ◼   ► that you know that's that's just an

00:20:50 ◼   ► expected part of your process then so

00:20:53 ◼   ► that way when it does start to decline

00:20:55 ◼   ► or have take a sharp drop off then you

00:20:59 ◼   ► you can be sad about that you can try to

00:21:00 ◼   ► reverse that but at least you know you

00:21:04 ◼   ► shouldn't be surprised that it happened

00:21:05 ◼   ► at all

00:21:06 ◼   ► you should know like everything goes up

00:21:08 ◼   ► and down and so what that means is when

00:21:11 ◼   ► you're in the up periods plan for the

00:21:14 ◼   ► down periods so that goes to very basic

00:21:17 ◼   ► things first of all obviously like save

00:21:19 ◼   ► money you know like all the money that

00:21:21 ◼   ► you get during the up periods bank as

00:21:23 ◼   ► much that as you can and and that that

00:21:25 ◼   ► will help you tremendously down the road

00:21:27 ◼   ► when you're in a down period and and you

00:21:29 ◼   ► you might need something to you know

00:21:31 ◼   ► clear the gap or whatever or to start a

00:21:33 ◼   ► new project also in the up periods when

00:21:36 ◼   ► you have when things are going well

00:21:37 ◼   ► leverage that success into things that

00:21:40 ◼   ► might help you during the down periods

00:21:42 ◼   ► so for instance you know you mentioned

00:21:44 ◼   ► diversity that is number one you know so

00:21:46 ◼   ► in the the up period is the time to

00:21:49 ◼   ► start spreading your wings to start

00:21:51 ◼   ► building a platform so when you have a

00:21:53 ◼   ► popular app that's a great time to start

00:21:55 ◼   ► a podcast or a blog or a YouTube channel

00:21:58 ◼   ► or something else you know spread out

00:22:00 ◼   ► when when people are looking at you

00:22:02 ◼   ► build new build new audiences to build

00:22:05 ◼   ► new places build new products you know

00:22:07 ◼   ► start looking into new things and then

00:22:09 ◼   ► when the thing that boosted you up in

00:22:11 ◼   ► the first place starts going

00:22:12 ◼   ► down you have these other this other

00:22:14 ◼   ► network of other places or products or

00:22:17 ◼   ► apps or audiences that can help you into

00:22:20 ◼   ► the next thing or that can become the

00:22:22 ◼   ► next thing themselves and and that I

00:22:24 ◼   ► mean the best I mean you can do that

00:22:26 ◼   ► anytime and you should do that I do that

00:22:27 ◼   ► whenever you can but the best time to do

00:22:29 ◼   ► it is when things are good because

00:22:30 ◼   ► that's when you have a little bit extra

00:22:32 ◼   ► money a little bit of extra time maybe

00:22:34 ◼   ► but you should be spending on that

00:22:36 ◼   ► because that's important that is really

00:22:38 ◼   ► the best strategy I can possibly give

00:22:40 ◼   ► for you know beyond just you know what

00:22:43 ◼   ► we've already said which is like you

00:22:44 ◼   ► know try lots of things and see what

00:22:46 ◼   ► succeeds and and and have diverse income

00:22:49 ◼   ► streams besides all that best thing I

00:22:51 ◼   ► can say is assume every good thing will

00:22:53 ◼   ► end and while it is good hoard as much

00:22:57 ◼   ► save as much as you possibly can and

00:22:59 ◼   ► then spread your wings into new things

00:23:02 ◼   ► then so that as those things are

00:23:05 ◼   ► building they're building with your

00:23:06 ◼   ► success and then when the success and

00:23:09 ◼   ► that first thing starts to dwindle you

00:23:10 ◼   ► have something else to fall back on or

00:23:12 ◼   ► to build up and I think the key thing do

00:23:15 ◼   ► what you're pointing out is that

00:23:16 ◼   ► diversity like for me diversity mostly

00:23:19 ◼   ► means having lots and lots of apps but

00:23:22 ◼   ► it doesn't have to mean that for

00:23:24 ◼   ► everybody I mean the same with like you

00:23:25 ◼   ► in general have been like an atmega

00:23:28 ◼   ► monogamous like you generally just sort

00:23:30 ◼   ► of had this one app after another that

00:23:33 ◼   ► you sort of you you you've tuned but as

00:23:35 ◼   ► you've been developing and you know over

00:23:38 ◼   ► the last eight years you've always been

00:23:39 ◼   ► diversifying out into different things

00:23:41 ◼   ► you had your blog for a while that was

00:23:43 ◼   ► very it's just sort of that was where

00:23:45 ◼   ► your energy was going into and that's

00:23:47 ◼   ► where you were sort of expanding out

00:23:48 ◼   ► into and then you went into podcasting

00:23:50 ◼   ► or it's like finding those whatever that

00:23:53 ◼   ► is for for you it makes sense for you

00:23:56 ◼   ► know that like if you're a good writer

00:23:57 ◼   ► maybe blogging is great if you like

00:23:58 ◼   ► video or audio podcasting is great a lot

00:24:02 ◼   ► of I know a lot of people who diversify

00:24:03 ◼   ► out into education you know you start

00:24:06 ◼   ► doing training or book writing or

00:24:09 ◼   ► whatever there's no money in book

00:24:10 ◼   ► writing interesting yes that's not a

00:24:12 ◼   ► great plan yeah but maybe bit of

00:24:14 ◼   ► training I think is a reasonable thing

00:24:15 ◼   ► or finding ways to take small successes

00:24:18 ◼   ► and sort of it's like turning them into

00:24:22 ◼   ► other other in broader extinct is a

00:24:24 ◼   ► great way in

00:24:25 ◼   ► where your you're not going to

00:24:28 ◼   ► necessarily be able to just have a

00:24:30 ◼   ► runaway hit in the App Store itself to

00:24:33 ◼   ► find a way to make a bigger and broader

00:24:35 ◼   ► living and like that's where you can

00:24:37 ◼   ► grow in a lot of ways and and it is kind

00:24:40 ◼   ► of a strange land delightful sort of

00:24:42 ◼   ► like cyclical pattern to where the more

00:24:45 ◼   ► you're able to do that the easier it is

00:24:47 ◼   ► subsequently to launch successful apps

00:24:50 ◼   ► and you know you it's the building a

00:24:52 ◼   ► enough of a reputation for yourself that

00:24:55 ◼   ► you can when you launch something new

00:24:57 ◼   ► people are at least take a look at it

00:25:00 ◼   ► there's no guarantee it doesn't like

00:25:02 ◼   ► make you do the thing just like an

00:25:03 ◼   ► automatic success but it gives you into

00:25:06 ◼   ► the door in a way that it wouldn't

00:25:08 ◼   ► otherwise if you just threw things out

00:25:10 ◼   ► over the wall into the App Store and

00:25:11 ◼   ► then like walked away exactly and and as

00:25:14 ◼   ► you try more things you get better at

00:25:16 ◼   ► doing them you know like it's you know

00:25:18 ◼   ► now it's a lot easier for me to start a

00:25:20 ◼   ► new podcast now than it was four years

00:25:22 ◼   ► ago because I've done a lot of podcast

00:25:24 ◼   ► since then I know how to do it now I

00:25:26 ◼   ► know what works and what doesn't to some

00:25:27 ◼   ► degree and so if I launch a new podcast

00:25:30 ◼   ► now it's way less risky than it used to

00:25:31 ◼   ► be you suppose I've done it a lot you

00:25:32 ◼   ► know if you launch a new app today

00:25:34 ◼   ► you're you can be pretty sure you know

00:25:37 ◼   ► roughly what it will take to get it done

00:25:39 ◼   ► roughly what it will take to get it in

00:25:40 ◼   ► the store and an approximate you know

00:25:43 ◼   ► estimate of how much you think it might

00:25:44 ◼   ► make in the first X months or whatever

00:25:45 ◼   ► you know if things go well you you've

00:25:48 ◼   ► launched so many apps that now you've

00:25:50 ◼   ► just gotten good at launching apps right

00:25:51 ◼   ► so any skills you can build along the

00:25:54 ◼   ► way you know in that kind of way it

00:25:56 ◼   ► helps to to just build up your

00:25:59 ◼   ► confidence over time you know just again

00:26:00 ◼   ► the more you try the more you put out

00:26:02 ◼   ► there the the better it will be and then

00:26:05 ◼   ► as things kind of you know take seed or

00:26:09 ◼   ► whatever and I don't know anything about

00:26:10 ◼   ► growing things as the plants that you

00:26:13 ◼   ► plant take root some of them will and

00:26:16 ◼   ► and then you know then you can you're

00:26:19 ◼   ► just building up this career over time

00:26:20 ◼   ► it's the slow growth trying a whole

00:26:23 ◼   ► bunch of stuff and eventually some of it

00:26:25 ◼   ► will work and then as that works you

00:26:27 ◼   ► keep building you keep spreading out

00:26:29 ◼   ► even further you build up what you have

00:26:31 ◼   ► them as much as much as you can you save

00:26:33 ◼   ► when the times are good that this is how

00:26:35 ◼   ► you survive in this climate yeah

00:26:39 ◼   ► it's also probably a good place to point

00:26:41 ◼   ► out that more likely than not your goal

00:26:45 ◼   ► should it's like you want to have a

00:26:48 ◼   ► strategy that is going to work for your

00:26:50 ◼   ► career in a long term ma'am yes it's

00:26:53 ◼   ► like taking the approach of like okay

00:26:55 ◼   ► what I want to do is I want to start off

00:26:57 ◼   ► by winning the lottery and then I live

00:26:59 ◼   ► on my lottery winnings for the rest of

00:27:00 ◼   ► my life like if that was your approach

00:27:03 ◼   ► to life it's a good story it is it's

00:27:05 ◼   ► it's interesting but like what does that

00:27:08 ◼   ► look like five years into that plan even

00:27:10 ◼   ► if your plan worked like even if somehow

00:27:12 ◼   ► that meant your plan magically worked

00:27:13 ◼   ► five years in you have like this pile of

00:27:17 ◼   ► money that you're gradually chipping

00:27:18 ◼   ► away at like it doesn't sound like

00:27:20 ◼   ► healthy from a mental health perspective

00:27:22 ◼   ► of like what are you doing like people

00:27:24 ◼   ► like to have a sense of purpose and

00:27:25 ◼   ► direction in their day and you're

00:27:27 ◼   ► accomplishing things but it's also just

00:27:30 ◼   ► I don't think not a good sort of

00:27:33 ◼   ► approach to take that you're it's not

00:27:35 ◼   ► you know the goal is something is to

00:27:38 ◼   ► have something that is going to work

00:27:39 ◼   ► years down the road and there are

00:27:41 ◼   ► certainly things that I wish I had done

00:27:42 ◼   ► you know eight years ago compared to now

00:27:45 ◼   ► but I think increasingly then maybe this

00:27:48 ◼   ► is like a wisdom as you get older kind

00:27:50 ◼   ► of perspective but increasingly I look

00:27:51 ◼   ► at these things that's like what am I

00:27:53 ◼   ► going to be doing in five years and

00:27:55 ◼   ► while I don't know the specifics like I

00:27:56 ◼   ► don't know what that's gonna be what

00:27:59 ◼   ► platforms I'm gonna be on if I'm gonna

00:28:00 ◼   ► be still developing if I'm gonna be

00:28:02 ◼   ► still an apple developer like who knows

00:28:03 ◼   ► that's you know that kind of thing is

00:28:05 ◼   ► unknowable but I look at what I'm doing

00:28:07 ◼   ► now and I'm saying like am i doing

00:28:08 ◼   ► things that are going to give me options

00:28:11 ◼   ► in the future that are going to open

00:28:13 ◼   ► doors and keep me capable like skills

00:28:15 ◼   ► and abilities that are going to be you

00:28:17 ◼   ► know we're valuable in general not

00:28:19 ◼   ► valuable in specific because technology

00:28:21 ◼   ► is going to change platforms gonna

00:28:23 ◼   ► change

00:28:23 ◼   ► economics are gonna change everything's

00:28:25 ◼   ► always going to be changing but like I

00:28:27 ◼   ► will I'll be the same here and then as I

00:28:31 ◼   ► will be in the future and so am i doing

00:28:33 ◼   ► things for myself now that are going to

00:28:35 ◼   ► benefit like future future me is going

00:28:36 ◼   ► to be thankful that I was making these

00:28:38 ◼   ► choices now rather than sort of just

00:28:40 ◼   ► yeah going crazy like hey things are you

00:28:42 ◼   ► know like uh if you hit it big in the

00:28:43 ◼   ► App Store awesome good for you like

00:28:45 ◼   ► maybe don't go buy a Ferrari because

00:28:47 ◼   ► like past year if your future self is

00:28:49 ◼   ► problem likely to be super super

00:28:52 ◼   ► thrilled about

00:28:52 ◼   ► car payments for the years and years to

00:28:54 ◼   ► come and the first time you need to

00:28:55 ◼   ► replace the clutch and also I would I

00:28:58 ◼   ► would I would end with one more thing to

00:28:59 ◼   ► that as you as you spread around and as

00:29:03 ◼   ► you start things and explore new options

00:29:04 ◼   ► it's very important to explore and

00:29:08 ◼   ► invest in things that are on their way

00:29:09 ◼   ► up

00:29:10 ◼   ► not that are kind of in the past and

00:29:12 ◼   ► it's hard for me to say that because I

00:29:13 ◼   ► like a lot of things from the past but

00:29:14 ◼   ► you know like today is probably not a

00:29:18 ◼   ► great time to start making a mac app you

00:29:21 ◼   ► know as much as it kills me to say that

00:29:22 ◼   ► it's probably not a great time for that

00:29:23 ◼   ► market wise it's a decent time to to be

00:29:27 ◼   ► working on things like you know YouTube

00:29:30 ◼   ► and I don't know what else but other

00:29:33 ◼   ► people can figure that out but the point

00:29:36 ◼   ► is like invest in things that are

00:29:38 ◼   ► growing and things that have that have a

00:29:40 ◼   ► likely future bigger than their present

00:29:42 ◼   ► because what growing means and and try

00:29:44 ◼   ► to minimize how much you you're assuming

00:29:46 ◼   ► that the past will continue to state the

00:29:48 ◼   ► full state will continue to exist

00:29:49 ◼   ► basically so anyway with that said thank

00:29:53 ◼   ► you for listening everybody and we will

00:29:55 ◼   ► talk to you next week bye