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The Talk Show

190: ‘Anything Luxury’, With Special Guest Ben Thompson

 

00:00:00   lots to talk about what do you want to [TS]

00:00:01   start with you wanna start with this [TS]

00:00:02   Microsoft build keynote yeah it was it [TS]

00:00:07   was interesting as you watch it now I [TS]

00:00:08   didn't watch it I was going to whoever [TS]

00:00:12   uh yeah sorry I failed to value out [TS]

00:00:15   there uh it was it was good uh it was [TS]

00:00:19   funny I really liked it the as I was [TS]

00:00:21   listening to it he like there was a very [TS]

00:00:24   much a sort of coherent vision you know [TS]

00:00:27   that took the idea of you know Microsoft [TS]

00:00:30   but you know by necessity has to kind of [TS]

00:00:33   you know weep over the the mobile sort [TS]

00:00:35   of area and to extent they certainly [TS]

00:00:37   have in the cloud but kind of painting a [TS]

00:00:40   vision beyond that and kind of from a [TS]

00:00:41   big picture what I liked best is that at [TS]

00:00:43   previous builds there's always two [TS]

00:00:45   keynotes yeah and the first day is [TS]

00:00:47   usually sort of the windows keynote and [TS]

00:00:50   the second day is the azure keynote and [TS]

00:00:53   this year it's the opposite as er is the [TS]

00:00:54   first day in Windows the second day and [TS]

00:00:56   I think that's appropriate because [TS]

00:00:57   that's realistically where Microsoft's [TS]

00:01:00   growth and opportunities are so so from [TS]

00:01:01   that perspective I you know I enjoyed it [TS]

00:01:04   I think the the problem though is all [TS]

00:01:09   that stuff on the edge Mike I'll talk [TS]

00:01:10   about building a sort of thing from the [TS]

00:01:12   from the quality of the edge like they [TS]

00:01:13   don't have very many edge end points and [TS]

00:01:15   that continues to be a problem hmm [TS]

00:01:17   edge being the devices that people use [TS]

00:01:20   is that what you mean yeah yeah exactly [TS]

00:01:23   I mean even on in not just mobile [TS]

00:01:26   devices but also sort of on computers I [TS]

00:01:28   mean the big computer the big criticism [TS]

00:01:30   of always have for Microsoft and even [TS]

00:01:32   under saturated data is they've done a [TS]

00:01:35   great job of sort of you know locking in [TS]

00:01:38   the folks that they've always had but if [TS]

00:01:41   you're a new company starting today [TS]

00:01:43   which piece of Microsoft software are [TS]

00:01:45   you going to buy and why and Microsoft [TS]

00:01:47   doesn't have a very good answer for that [TS]

00:01:48   question yeah that's a very good point [TS]

00:01:50   I would buy none yeah you right I mean [TS]

00:01:54   it you would probably buy Excel right [TS]

00:01:58   yeah I have office just e5 actually use [TS]

00:02:01   that for for my email in it in part [TS]

00:02:03   because I vastly prefer using email on [TS]

00:02:06   an offline client even if it's outlook [TS]

00:02:08   as opposed to the problem Gmail is I [TS]

00:02:11   have it I have an assistant so I have [TS]

00:02:12   some shared mailboxes [TS]

00:02:13   and it only supports shared mailboxes [TS]

00:02:15   through the online interface so that's [TS]

00:02:17   obviously the reason why I use obviously [TS]

00:02:18   five but the uh but yeah but I mean [TS]

00:02:22   beyond that I used Google Docs for a [TS]

00:02:24   year for you or Google Apps I should say [TS]

00:02:26   irreverence called for for the first [TS]

00:02:29   several years and there's times I miss [TS]

00:02:31   it times I don't yeah but but [TS]

00:02:32   realistically this it's not really if it [TS]

00:02:35   wasn't for my own personal I can choose [TS]

00:02:36   software based my own personal foibles [TS]

00:02:37   if I were an administrator sir Ector II [TS]

00:02:40   was a larger company I'm sure I would be [TS]

00:02:43   on on Google [TS]

00:02:44   I mean I'm obviously an edge case in [TS]

00:02:46   that I'd I've lived a Windows free life [TS]

00:02:51   my entire life but off the top of my [TS]

00:02:53   head the only Microsoft software I can [TS]

00:02:54   think that I use regularly is right now [TS]

00:02:57   Skype I don't think I use anything else [TS]

00:03:00   I haven't had office having a Microsoft [TS]

00:03:02   Office and oh my god at least 10 years [TS]

00:03:05   and Lee I don't even yeah late I don't [TS]

00:03:08   know if I ever even used a Mac os10 ah [TS]

00:03:12   you're probably better off his forehead [TS]

00:03:15   over that case but but I mean if you use [TS]

00:03:17   Excel like for real [TS]

00:03:19   there it which I rarely do but but the [TS]

00:03:22   occasional times I do it's like there's [TS]

00:03:24   numbers is not really competitive if you [TS]

00:03:26   want to just display stuff like make a [TS]

00:03:28   little chart numbers is actually [TS]

00:03:30   arguably better and easier and certainly [TS]

00:03:32   you know Excel make some really ugly [TS]

00:03:34   charts but if you there are some things [TS]

00:03:37   I occasionally do on on Excel that I [TS]

00:03:39   mean it numbers just it's not numbers is [TS]

00:03:42   what it is like it serves its role well [TS]

00:03:45   it's not an excel competitor though I [TS]

00:03:46   don't know I have nothing but good thing [TS]

00:03:48   I haven't used Excel in a long time but [TS]

00:03:49   I was never a serious spreadsheet person [TS]

00:03:51   but when I've seen like serious [TS]

00:03:52   spreadsheets it's it's very impressive [TS]

00:03:54   piece of software yeah it's kind of like [TS]

00:03:58   the I mean people have made this this [TS]

00:03:59   this point before but it's very true it [TS]

00:04:01   really is sort of the programming [TS]

00:04:03   language for normal people yes like I [TS]

00:04:06   mean if you think about it people are [TS]

00:04:08   bend it to do all kinds of crazy things [TS]

00:04:10   in part because it's offering sort of in [TS]

00:04:13   place computation in a way that is [TS]

00:04:15   accessible for for you know sort of [TS]

00:04:18   normal people who don't know how to code [TS]

00:04:19   it is basic out or whatever it's clever [TS]

00:04:21   chewy back hey remember it's called [TS]

00:04:23   vbscript v yeah whatever [TS]

00:04:26   scripting languages so you can do actual [TS]

00:04:28   sort of programming which again is still [TS]

00:04:30   different than you know still pretty [TS]

00:04:32   basic but even just using a cell you [TS]

00:04:36   know equals this cell plus that cell [TS]

00:04:38   divided by that's like--that's [TS]

00:04:39   programming and and in that respect it's [TS]

00:04:42   even more impressive when you think of [TS]

00:04:44   it that in that light even back in 1991 [TS]

00:04:46   when I was a freshman in college for the [TS]

00:04:51   as a freshman I ended up switching to [TS]

00:04:53   computer science the next year but as a [TS]

00:04:55   freshman I was an engineering major and [TS]

00:04:58   there was a mandatory like intro to [TS]

00:05:03   programming course but not it again this [TS]

00:05:06   wasn't the computer science this was you [TS]

00:05:08   know and it was all bit was ridiculous [TS]

00:05:09   for me I mean I was like a in like the [TS]

00:05:12   Donlin on the computer programming team [TS]

00:05:14   in high school it could be I was I was [TS]

00:05:17   it was great for me I was the type of [TS]

00:05:19   student you don't know if you were the [TS]

00:05:20   same but when I got a course like that I [TS]

00:05:22   didn't try to place out of it I was just [TS]

00:05:24   like oh this is great I'm to do any work [TS]

00:05:25   but if we ended up I think like second [TS]

00:05:30   half of the thing was like an intro to [TS]

00:05:31   Pascal which dates me and we were still [TS]

00:05:35   learning Pascal but I think the first [TS]

00:05:37   like month of the course was all spent [TS]

00:05:39   in Excel it was sort of like Excel was [TS]

00:05:41   the this is how you learn you know learn [TS]

00:05:43   the program and I think oh that's [TS]

00:05:45   interesting [TS]

00:05:46   just trying to build the mindset not [TS]

00:05:48   necessarily build exactly that makes a [TS]

00:05:50   ton of sense yeah and in honestly going [TS]

00:05:53   through life I bet more engineers do [TS]

00:05:55   programming in Excel than writing source [TS]

00:05:57   code I mean at least in some ways um I [TS]

00:06:00   think the other thing that Excel has as [TS]

00:06:02   a and all spreadsheets but the thing [TS]

00:06:05   that they have that really makes them is [TS]

00:06:07   so much more approachable for people who [TS]

00:06:09   think they can't program but are [TS]

00:06:10   actually doing you know creating your [TS]

00:06:12   own custom programmatic things is it [TS]

00:06:14   makes data structures completely visual [TS]

00:06:17   and there's yeah so there's this entire [TS]

00:06:19   layer of abstraction of creating a data [TS]

00:06:21   structure that is completely removed if [TS]

00:06:24   you just see it and so much data [TS]

00:06:26   actually fits to conceptually in a grid [TS]

00:06:30   and you don't even know it you don't [TS]

00:06:32   realize that as you're setting up this [TS]

00:06:34   two-dimensional and you know I know you [TS]

00:06:36   can do three dimensional stuff too but [TS]

00:06:37   you know even if it's just to do a [TS]

00:06:38   simple little two-dimensional [TS]

00:06:40   spreadsheet [TS]

00:06:40   you're creating a data structure but you [TS]

00:06:42   don't even you know you're not really [TS]

00:06:43   thinking about it that way yeah I think [TS]

00:06:46   that's exactly it and you get and you [TS]

00:06:47   can visualize you know you can literally [TS]

00:06:49   visualize like how the numbers are [TS]

00:06:51   moving around and moving through [TS]

00:06:52   equations in you know like you're you're [TS]

00:06:55   debugging you don't even realize you are [TS]

00:06:56   but but that's exactly what's going on [TS]

00:06:58   right anyway nothing but good things to [TS]

00:07:00   say about excel so what else happened at [TS]

00:07:02   this keynote what are they talking about [TS]

00:07:03   what's the big what are people need to [TS]

00:07:06   know about where Microsoft is is wants [TS]

00:07:09   people to go and build it for those who [TS]

00:07:10   don't know it's their developer [TS]

00:07:11   conference so it's you know it's not [TS]

00:07:14   necessarily consumer focus but it's what [TS]

00:07:16   they want people developers to do yeah [TS]

00:07:19   well I think that's that's part of the [TS]

00:07:21   point is there really wasn't anything [TS]

00:07:22   for consumers in in this at all I mean [TS]

00:07:25   there was they had this or Cortana [TS]

00:07:27   skills kit you know which which it would [TS]

00:07:29   be you know a Dallas to sort of the [TS]

00:07:31   Amazon echo skills things like that they [TS]

00:07:34   have a new database service for Azure [TS]

00:07:37   called cosmos DB which is very [TS]

00:07:39   interesting but again speaking of data [TS]

00:07:41   structure is not really something that [TS]

00:07:44   people you know most people would think [TS]

00:07:45   about or or or care about and where as [TS]

00:07:49   tomorrow all right [TS]

00:07:50   which I was yet tomorrow I always try to [TS]

00:07:52   speak in terms of us time but even when [TS]

00:07:55   I would it's not but tonight my time [TS]

00:07:56   tomorrow they will have I think more [TS]

00:07:59   consumer facing stuff but again I think [TS]

00:08:01   it's it's really emblematic of the shift [TS]

00:08:04   in the company that that is on day two [TS]

00:08:05   and to me that's that's kind of the [TS]

00:08:07   biggest high-level takeaway yeah it's [TS]

00:08:10   they're sort of doing on their own [TS]

00:08:15   volition you know under Satya Nadella [TS]

00:08:18   what some people ten years ago add or I [TS]

00:08:21   guess more than 10 years ago at this [TS]

00:08:22   point I had argued that should be done [TS]

00:08:25   by law which is break break the windows [TS]

00:08:28   division off into its own subsidiary or [TS]

00:08:30   separate company or something like that [TS]

00:08:32   yep you know like I think that that let [TS]

00:08:35   Microsoft stay focused on the future and [TS]

00:08:37   let Windows sort of ride out the you [TS]

00:08:40   know the role that it has to play is [TS]

00:08:42   sort of legacy infrastructure yeah I [TS]

00:08:45   think that's exactly that's exactly [TS]

00:08:46   right and it's I didn't think they I [TS]

00:08:49   didn't think they were capable of it [TS]

00:08:50   like Windows was so long you know had so [TS]

00:08:52   much gravitational pole in [TS]

00:08:54   the company mej extent that at one of [TS]

00:08:57   these keynotes a while ago like Asher [TS]

00:08:59   was renamed Windows Azure even though it [TS]

00:09:01   wasn't really Windows but but yeah [TS]

00:09:02   that's a great point know here one of my [TS]

00:09:04   favorite sort of little details here is [TS]

00:09:05   they announced theirs now you could [TS]

00:09:07   access the command line in this sort of [TS]

00:09:11   your Azure dashboard or whatever it is [TS]

00:09:13   like through web browser or on a mobile [TS]

00:09:15   app and it supports bash today and [TS]

00:09:18   PowerShell is coming PowerShell is the [TS]

00:09:20   command line program for Windows and to [TS]

00:09:23   me that that's that really that shows it [TS]

00:09:25   right which one do they support first [TS]

00:09:27   they support bash because what actually [TS]

00:09:28   matters for most cloud applications is [TS]

00:09:30   what most developers are used to is you [TS]

00:09:33   know Linux and and the linux shell and [TS]

00:09:35   that's where and so that's what they're [TS]

00:09:37   serving first and the Windows part is [TS]

00:09:39   coming but it will come it will come [TS]

00:09:41   soon yeah I think it isn't PowerShell in [TS]

00:09:46   a nutshell like there was the das prompt [TS]

00:09:49   and PowerShell is sort of them okay we [TS]

00:09:51   want a command line terminal type thing [TS]

00:09:53   but das this piece of crap so here's [TS]

00:09:56   something you know modern and and at [TS]

00:09:59   least maybe not modeled after UNIX [TS]

00:10:01   shells but at least as powerful as UNIX [TS]

00:10:05   shell yeah I mean it's it's it's a it's [TS]

00:10:07   a whole thing I mean it's you know it's [TS]

00:10:09   a shell and a whole Wincott us its own [TS]

00:10:11   scripting language and it's not actually [TS]

00:10:13   open source lis or not but it yeah it [TS]

00:10:15   was released in 2006 I believe I'm just [TS]

00:10:18   looking it up so I mean it's it's very [TS]

00:10:21   far removed from the sort of DOS days I [TS]

00:10:23   mean it's a proper shell like if it's [TS]

00:10:26   used very heavily by system [TS]

00:10:27   administrators and and folks that are [TS]

00:10:29   managing computers and things like that [TS]

00:10:31   it's used on the server so it mean it's [TS]

00:10:33   a proper shell it's but it's not you [TS]

00:10:35   know it's different then as as one would [TS]

00:10:38   expect it's different than than bash can [TS]

00:10:41   I just as an aside it's so funny because [TS]

00:10:43   I didn't think we'd be talking about [TS]

00:10:44   shells but I do you ever use use command [TS]

00:10:48   line on Mac os10 you use it sometimes [TS]

00:10:49   right yeah rarely I have a couple [TS]

00:10:52   servers that did not my not destroy your [TS]

00:10:54   server that's managed but um I have a [TS]

00:10:57   few other servers that I do stuff on and [TS]

00:10:59   I use it for that but I rarely I don't [TS]

00:11:02   do much scripting on on my [TS]

00:11:04   computer do you do you care what shall [TS]

00:11:06   you use no I don't care at all I use it [TS]

00:11:09   I use it very rarely I've I've used the [TS]

00:11:11   UNIX shell since at least 1990 - that's [TS]

00:11:16   when ice when I switch to computer [TS]

00:11:17   science at Drexel and I've you know I [TS]

00:11:22   mean I'm um I know enough to get [TS]

00:11:25   whatever I need to do done but I've [TS]

00:11:28   never enjoyed it never really and I [TS]

00:11:30   never really liked writing shell scripts [TS]

00:11:33   and so if I ever had anything that you [TS]

00:11:34   most people would write a shell script [TS]

00:11:35   once I found out about parole I just [TS]

00:11:38   wrote everything in Perl and just [TS]

00:11:39   treated Perl if I needed to as my shell [TS]

00:11:42   scripting language so I never really got [TS]

00:11:44   deep roots and I know I think I think [TS]

00:11:46   Mac os10 used to when it first shipped [TS]

00:11:49   was using tcsh as the shell or something [TS]

00:11:52   I don't know and at some point it [TS]

00:11:54   switched to bash because bash sort of [TS]

00:11:56   become is like the most popular modern [TS]

00:11:58   scripting language because Linux uses [TS]

00:12:01   that I think but I never had deep roots [TS]

00:12:04   like it was never like like people get [TS]

00:12:07   tied up and they have like these shelves [TS]

00:12:08   or files you know the what do you call [TS]

00:12:11   your profile where you've got all these [TS]

00:12:13   aliases and all this stuff set up so [TS]

00:12:15   that you can't really switch shells very [TS]

00:12:17   easily because you'd have to rewrite it [TS]

00:12:18   all [TS]

00:12:18   so anyway recently I switched my shell [TS]

00:12:22   err on my Mac's to fish have you heard [TS]

00:12:24   about this shell I've heard you chatting [TS]

00:12:28   about it but it's no I it's fascinating [TS]

00:12:31   and I think anybody who has deep roots [TS]

00:12:32   into a UNIX shell is not going to switch [TS]

00:12:35   but it's a like a new shell it's you [TS]

00:12:38   know something that this guy Peter a man [TS]

00:12:40   made he's a engineer at Apple this isn't [TS]

00:12:44   an apple project it's something he did [TS]

00:12:46   on the side but it's amazing and I thing [TS]

00:12:48   I like about it is it's like completely [TS]

00:12:50   logical in terms of how you do stuff and [TS]

00:12:54   it doesn't have any kind of it by [TS]

00:12:57   separating itself from from the history [TS]

00:12:59   of UNIX shells it breaks a bunch of [TS]

00:13:03   things that other UNIX shells all do but [TS]

00:13:06   it like just for one thing one thing [TS]

00:13:08   that's so nice is that instead of [TS]

00:13:09   spewing a whole bunch of like dot files [TS]

00:13:12   you know the UNIX way of making a file [TS]

00:13:14   quote-unquote invisible a start the name [TS]

00:13:16   of the dot which is [TS]

00:13:17   so gross that we're still using that but [TS]

00:13:21   they did they had these you end up with [TS]

00:13:25   like six of these files in your home [TS]

00:13:26   folder for each shell that you use [TS]

00:13:28   because in Iran they don't have names [TS]

00:13:30   that make any sense and no they drive me [TS]

00:13:32   up the wall I know exactly we talk about [TS]

00:13:33   right it doesn't make any sense at all [TS]

00:13:35   with fish you still have it you know a [TS]

00:13:38   dot file but it's it's a folder which is [TS]

00:13:44   it called it's called but I'm really [TS]

00:13:48   exciting tonight aren't I [TS]

00:13:49   I should do this later and I love that [TS]

00:13:52   it's called I think it's called like dot [TS]

00:13:54   config or something like that but [TS]

00:13:56   there's one it's a it makes it folder [TS]

00:13:58   instead of a file and it's just one [TS]

00:14:00   folder called dot config and inside [TS]

00:14:03   there is is where everything else goes [TS]

00:14:10   so you just there's like a folder in dot [TS]

00:14:13   config that says fish and then inside [TS]

00:14:15   that folder is all officious stuff so if [TS]

00:14:17   other utilities use this convention [TS]

00:14:20   everything could go nice and neatly into [TS]

00:14:23   one folder called config anyway it's [TS]

00:14:25   really neat I'll put a link in the show [TS]

00:14:26   notes to fish it's really I think it's [TS]

00:14:29   really neat so oh that reminds me what [TS]

00:14:33   is the last time I was on um 2000 [TS]

00:14:36   January 2017 looks like and we talked [TS]

00:14:39   about the Mac a little bit then and I I [TS]

00:14:41   do have to say I think pretty much that [TS]

00:14:43   that episode holds up I think pretty [TS]

00:14:45   well after the after the the news that's [TS]

00:14:50   come out about the Mac Pro and things [TS]

00:14:51   like that like I think our general [TS]

00:14:53   presumption was that there was a screw [TS]

00:14:55   up they wand update it but couldn't and [TS]

00:14:57   they're not abandoning the platform and [TS]

00:15:00   and it was just a screw-up and I think [TS]

00:15:02   that's basically what ended up would end [TS]

00:15:04   up happening so that I'm glad we uh glad [TS]

00:15:06   we got that one right yeah I think so [TS]

00:15:09   too [TS]

00:15:09   anyway before I glued fish I'll just say [TS]

00:15:11   this if you're a nerd and nerdy enough [TS]

00:15:12   to use the terminal but you've somehow [TS]

00:15:14   never gotten attached to bash or [TS]

00:15:16   seashell or Z shell or any of those [TS]

00:15:19   things you should give fish a try it's [TS]

00:15:21   really easy to install [TS]

00:15:22   through homebrew and I like it so much [TS]

00:15:25   more than any shell I've ever tried [TS]

00:15:27   because it's just somehow makes sense it [TS]

00:15:29   makes sense that it comes from somebody [TS]

00:15:30   who works at Apple [TS]

00:15:31   it sort of makes sense in the way Apple [TS]

00:15:32   software does right that's what made me [TS]

00:15:35   think of it is the idea of like change [TS]

00:15:36   like one even having access to a shell [TS]

00:15:39   and being able to change it and all the [TS]

00:15:41   things you can do through a shell like [TS]

00:15:42   that's it's it's a thing you do on [TS]

00:15:45   computers which is that I start remember [TS]

00:15:47   why I went back to that last episode but [TS]

00:15:49   yeah that's why I mean it's a great [TS]

00:15:51   example yeah it does things like it has [TS]

00:15:52   like if you want to change the color the [TS]

00:15:54   syntax colouring for the shell like for [TS]

00:15:56   which like a command is this color the [TS]

00:15:58   arguments are this color the outputs [TS]

00:16:00   this color in error is this color when [TS]

00:16:02   you config you don't have to just type [TS]

00:16:04   in a file you can do something and it [TS]

00:16:05   opens a little web local web browser [TS]

00:16:07   window and so you can visually pick the [TS]

00:16:10   colors and see actually see the colors [TS]

00:16:12   as you add to them it's oh nice amazing [TS]

00:16:14   stuff it's so anyway it's really cool so [TS]

00:16:20   anyway PowerShell it's is coming soon it [TS]

00:16:23   and bash is already is the default and [TS]

00:16:26   first available thing that support for [TS]

00:16:29   this for this dashboard sort of [TS]

00:16:31   interface for the other thing I saw it [TS]

00:16:32   was announced was I forget what they [TS]

00:16:34   call it but whatever Microsoft version [TS]

00:16:36   of Xcode is what's it called virtual [TS]

00:16:39   studio visual studio whatever the visual [TS]

00:16:41   studio universal studio is now I know [TS]

00:16:43   it's not wasn't a surprise but it's [TS]

00:16:45   there's a version of it for Mac now [TS]

00:16:47   which is crazy yep and they did a demo [TS]

00:16:51   and it was more like oh we're doing a [TS]

00:16:53   demo on a Mac it wasn't like a we're [TS]

00:16:55   definitely this program but there's [TS]

00:16:56   actually when they were doing the I [TS]

00:16:58   think is when they're demoing the shell [TS]

00:17:00   and it was on a map yeah [TS]

00:17:03   and that it you know it it's of a piece [TS]

00:17:06   it's the exact same you know two sides [TS]

00:17:08   of the same coin with the windows [TS]

00:17:10   keynote being on day two the entire idea [TS]

00:17:14   that if you're developing on Windows [TS]

00:17:18   server side technologies the assumption [TS]

00:17:21   that you're developing with a Windows [TS]

00:17:22   client and with your hands on the [TS]

00:17:24   keyboard is no longer there like they're [TS]

00:17:26   completely come you know committed and [TS]

00:17:28   realized that but I don't know if it's a [TS]

00:17:31   majority of developers but certainly an [TS]

00:17:34   enormous chunk of them are using Mac's [TS]

00:17:37   as their client whether they're writing [TS]

00:17:39   Mac software or not even if they're just [TS]

00:17:41   doing like web development or Windows [TS]

00:17:42   development or something like that [TS]

00:17:43   or saw anything server-side I think [TS]

00:17:45   there's an enormous chunk of them who [TS]

00:17:47   are using MacBooks yep [TS]

00:17:51   no yep and and the platforms that [TS]

00:17:53   they're developing for um you know yes [TS]

00:17:56   on PC it's still meal windows still as [TS]

00:17:59   it you know dominant more the dominant [TS]

00:18:01   share but pcs aren't a piece species are [TS]

00:18:06   the fast I mean in a very real way or in [TS]

00:18:08   you know to a topic I'm sure we'll get [TS]

00:18:11   to there they were never even a thing so [TS]

00:18:13   and that's that's the reality that [TS]

00:18:16   Microsoft has to deal with for and to in [TS]

00:18:18   and I think they by and large are again [TS]

00:18:20   that doesn't mean that they're out of [TS]

00:18:22   the woods because they still have this [TS]

00:18:24   stuff to actually reach consumers [TS]

00:18:25   actually get in front of them both in [TS]

00:18:27   terms both in that applies to business [TS]

00:18:29   just as much as applies to to end-users [TS]

00:18:31   but at least they're you know not stuck [TS]

00:18:35   focused on focused on the past yeah yeah [TS]

00:18:40   so now we're in unusual how things [TS]

00:18:45   change situation where Microsoft is the [TS]

00:18:48   company that's flexible about what what [TS]

00:18:51   machines people are using to develop [TS]

00:18:52   against their technologies and apples [TS]

00:18:54   the company that makes you develop on a [TS]

00:18:56   Mac to write for their phone OS right [TS]

00:18:59   exactly exactly [TS]

00:19:00   not that I blame Apple for that might [TS]

00:19:03   have come out as me you know blaming [TS]

00:19:04   them I to makes profiles again but uh [TS]

00:19:08   it's just it's just a funny situation [TS]

00:19:14   yeah I mean the apples the company with [TS]

00:19:17   an operating system was such over well [TS]

00:19:18   at overwhelming market share that they [TS]

00:19:20   can compel developers to buy a machine [TS]

00:19:23   that they otherwise wouldn't buy just to [TS]

00:19:25   do development for it yeah it's it it [TS]

00:19:28   it's hard to especially if you were [TS]

00:19:31   following Apple I'm sure it's harder for [TS]

00:19:33   you than for me I mean back in I was [TS]

00:19:35   following Apple that I used when I [TS]

00:19:36   wasn't using one and to really [TS]

00:19:41   appreciate the extent to which they are [TS]

00:19:43   not the underdog [TS]

00:19:45   at all it like it's it's easy easier the [TS]

00:19:48   situation to change on the ground before [TS]

00:19:49   it's before changes sort of your mental [TS]

00:19:52   state and I think that's a proper app [TS]

00:19:54   that was an app prom for Apple [TS]

00:19:56   internally to like you [TS]

00:19:57   you act and behave changes when you're [TS]

00:20:00   when you're dominant as opposed to when [TS]

00:20:02   you're you know the sort of scrappy [TS]

00:20:05   scrappy underdog yeah um yeah totally so [TS]

00:20:10   what else is going on at surface or not [TS]

00:20:12   surface had build you know that's a [TS]

00:20:14   conference I was I was at the one time I [TS]

00:20:16   was in a video yes that's right uh feels [TS]

00:20:20   like a long time ago well it's it's I [TS]

00:20:23   mean it's crazy I'll lightning ahead Way [TS]

00:20:24   was a while ago it has to been what four [TS]

00:20:27   four or five years ago three years ago I [TS]

00:20:29   think I think was wrong I think so that [TS]

00:20:32   was somebody's I thought I was still in [TS]

00:20:33   the states when that happened but yeah I [TS]

00:20:35   think it was three years ago [TS]

00:20:36   but I could be wrong but long story [TS]

00:20:37   short for those who don't remember this [TS]

00:20:39   was when I was working with Brent [TS]

00:20:40   Simmons and Dave wish because they we [TS]

00:20:42   called her social q-branch we had her [TS]

00:20:43   app vesper and we did the sinking our [TS]

00:20:47   own sinking back-end for various reasons [TS]

00:20:51   but we built it on I guess I think we [TS]

00:20:54   were there right we were doing it at the [TS]

00:20:55   time when they called it Windows Azure [TS]

00:20:58   and they made like they made us one of [TS]

00:21:01   the like examples in a little video that [TS]

00:21:03   they showed on the in the keynote flew [TS]

00:21:06   us out there and everything was kind of [TS]

00:21:08   nice kind of weird they have yeah they [TS]

00:21:11   have this uh they have a real-time [TS]

00:21:13   translator for Microsoft PowerPoint [TS]

00:21:15   that's kind of nifty so when you can be [TS]

00:21:18   presenting and it will be show like [TS]

00:21:20   real-time translation of the of the UH [TS]

00:21:25   yeah so that's kind interesting but [TS]

00:21:28   again I mean it's it was mostly like it [TS]

00:21:30   was it was mostly all back and stuff so [TS]

00:21:32   which which which is fine I think as far [TS]

00:21:36   as consumer-facing stuff you know the [TS]

00:21:38   one today is probably going to be more [TS]

00:21:40   more interesting but then again they [TS]

00:21:42   just announced the the windows s and the [TS]

00:21:44   new laptop so a couple weeks ago so I [TS]

00:21:46   think they're disposed there's really [TS]

00:21:48   might be a Cortana speaker like a like [TS]

00:21:50   an echo type device yeah at which but [TS]

00:21:54   again you know I mean actually getting [TS]

00:21:56   customers to get customers hands is [TS]

00:21:58   gonna is going to be the challenge I [TS]

00:22:00   guess the reason I was going to say I [TS]

00:22:02   gave somebody who observes Apple it's [TS]

00:22:05   weird because I [TS]

00:22:07   I have muscle memory you know and it's [TS]

00:22:11   weird to see a company that's so on [TS]

00:22:13   Apple like like it's baffling to me that [TS]

00:22:16   they would hold an event a week before [TS]

00:22:19   their big developer conference right or [TS]

00:22:21   they would talk about a new operating [TS]

00:22:23   system and unveil these new products [TS]

00:22:25   like why wouldn't you do that in the [TS]

00:22:26   keynote but I'm guessing you know that [TS]

00:22:28   the keynote this morning ran long and [TS]

00:22:30   then the Windows one tomorrow they're [TS]

00:22:31   their keynotes already already run long [TS]

00:22:34   right I mean today was really I mean it [TS]

00:22:37   was much more of yeah it was pretty [TS]

00:22:40   hardcore like back-end development or [TS]

00:22:42   wine a business application sort of [TS]

00:22:44   stuff I mean it wasn't a really consumer [TS]

00:22:46   facing thing at all it not even on the [TS]

00:22:49   slightest and yeah maybe they could have [TS]

00:22:51   announced the the things tomorrow but I [TS]

00:22:53   think yeah there's a very queer sort of [TS]

00:22:56   bifurcation and I think you've nailed it [TS]

00:22:58   before what Windows is sort of its own [TS]

00:23:00   thing particularly the consumer facing [TS]

00:23:02   side of Windows and I think they there's [TS]

00:23:05   relatively free rein to do what they can [TS]

00:23:07   to you know support and earn customers [TS]

00:23:10   but that doesn't necessarily really have [TS]

00:23:12   much impact particularly from a [TS]

00:23:15   strategic perspective on the rest of [TS]

00:23:17   Microsoft which is you know really the [TS]

00:23:19   future of the company and that's [TS]

00:23:21   probably this is probably a good example [TS]

00:23:23   of that [TS]

00:23:24   it was weird I know today's build they [TS]

00:23:28   move it around I think all that I think [TS]

00:23:29   they often move it around but this Sears [TS]

00:23:31   is in Seattle when I went two or three [TS]

00:23:33   years ago three four years ago whenever [TS]

00:23:35   it was it was in San Francisco in [TS]

00:23:36   Moscone which only added to this sort of [TS]

00:23:40   we were feeling bizarro [TS]

00:23:42   like I was in a bizarro developer [TS]

00:23:44   bizarro WWDC because they even had the [TS]

00:23:48   keynote at third floor you know we wrap [TS]

00:23:50   what Apple always calls the room [TS]

00:23:51   Presidio you know that the those big [TS]

00:23:56   convention spaces are sort of like [TS]

00:23:58   modular you know there's walls that can [TS]

00:24:00   be moved around to change the shape and [TS]

00:24:02   make room slightly bigger or smaller but [TS]

00:24:07   the thing that Microsoft did what and [TS]

00:24:09   I've seen so many keynotes in that room [TS]

00:24:11   because Macworld Expo used to have [TS]

00:24:13   keynotes [TS]

00:24:13   in the same room WWDC every year I guess [TS]

00:24:18   those are the two things but they're [TS]

00:24:19   Macworld Expo and W [TS]

00:24:21   Sika notes in that room and apples [TS]

00:24:23   configuration of the room is almost [TS]

00:24:25   always the same it's a very if you'd [TS]

00:24:27   almost think that it the room always [TS]

00:24:29   looks like that but it's actually like [TS]

00:24:30   an apple setup like it when WWDC has [TS]

00:24:33   done all that everything in there is out [TS]

00:24:35   and the thing that Microsoft did was [TS]

00:24:37   they had their stage along what in [TS]

00:24:41   Apple's configuration is the side like [TS]

00:24:44   Apple sits the room with the stage in [TS]

00:24:46   the front and the room goes back long [TS]

00:24:48   Microsoft set it up said that the stage [TS]

00:24:51   was wide and the room wasn't as deep and [TS]

00:24:55   they site in a way that that made sense [TS]

00:24:57   even though it made more people [TS]

00:24:59   everybody was closer to the stage and [TS]

00:25:01   Microsoft's configuration but people [TS]

00:25:03   were further from the center if you [TS]

00:25:05   didn't have a center seat and they made [TS]

00:25:07   up for that by having huge screens that [TS]

00:25:09   were just showed the same instead of [TS]

00:25:11   having one big screen that shows [TS]

00:25:13   something they had like a wall of [TS]

00:25:15   screens that all showed the same thing [TS]

00:25:16   over and over again and it just weirded [TS]

00:25:20   me out it was just guess it's you know [TS]

00:25:23   it's like coming home and somebody has [TS]

00:25:24   moved all of the furniture like [TS]

00:25:26   everything is the same except they've [TS]

00:25:28   rotated every room in your house by 90 [TS]

00:25:30   degrees that would be weird uh but yet [TS]

00:25:34   no no no Moscone keynote again this year [TS]

00:25:37   I mean right well they've been in the [TS]

00:25:39   the what is it the Billy Billy Graham [TS]

00:25:41   auditorium oh is that what it's called I [TS]

00:25:44   uh something like that I don't think I [TS]

00:25:46   mean they might never do Apple might [TS]

00:25:48   never do a Moscone right I was gonna say [TS]

00:25:50   yeah what might be uh which is fine he [TS]

00:25:54   wasn't it wasn't the greatest I didn't [TS]

00:25:56   like the I'm not a big fan of the Apple [TS]

00:25:57   set up in Moscow nee I'm not either [TS]

00:26:00   really I don't have anything against it [TS]

00:26:02   but I thought the Microsoft setup was [TS]

00:26:03   actually very nice I've it worked very [TS]

00:26:06   well and I felt like everybody got to [TS]

00:26:09   you couldn't really see may not be able [TS]

00:26:11   to see the actual people but if you know [TS]

00:26:13   I feel like if you were sitting seated [TS]

00:26:15   along the side you had a much bigger [TS]

00:26:16   screen in front of you than you get [TS]

00:26:18   seated in the back in Moscow me an apple [TS]

00:26:21   setup right exactly yeah I don't think [TS]

00:26:24   Apple Apple might never have an event in [TS]

00:26:26   San Francisco again you never say never [TS]

00:26:27   I mean who knows but I because I feel [TS]

00:26:30   like for their smaller events they're [TS]

00:26:32   going to have them at their headquarters [TS]

00:26:32   in the Steve Jobs theater [TS]

00:26:34   right I don't think you name the theater [TS]

00:26:36   Steve Jobs theater unless you intend to [TS]

00:26:39   use it quite a bit to unveil new [TS]

00:26:41   products right like I'm sure they're you [TS]

00:26:44   know have you been to the new campus you [TS]

00:26:46   know I've never I don't even know where [TS]

00:26:48   it is I was asking about it when I was [TS]

00:26:49   out there for the Mac Pro summit [TS]

00:26:52   whatever you want to round table [TS]

00:26:54   discussion it was a I guess it just [TS]

00:26:58   isn't close I don't know to be I just [TS]

00:27:01   worked there [TS]

00:27:01   so I one of the buildings that was that [TS]

00:27:03   was torn down so I definitely know where [TS]

00:27:06   it is be guys it's it's it's like [TS]

00:27:08   another exit on the freeway from from [TS]

00:27:10   where the current campus is right and I [TS]

00:27:12   did you could drive there through [TS]

00:27:14   through through city roads but yeah it's [TS]

00:27:16   a little bit of a hike it on the other [TS]

00:27:18   side of the freeway so it just wasn't [TS]

00:27:21   convenient and I didn't have a car so [TS]

00:27:22   what wasn't like I was going to take an [TS]

00:27:24   uber to go look at a construction site I [TS]

00:27:27   mean those fly overs that people publish [TS]

00:27:29   from those drones are probably better [TS]

00:27:31   than what you'd get looking at the [TS]

00:27:32   ground from the outside yep yeah I think [TS]

00:27:36   so I mean maybe uh I mean I imagine the [TS]

00:27:42   ID well I guess we'll see with the [TS]

00:27:44   iPhone with the iPhone announcement but [TS]

00:27:47   they did that they did that in San Jose [TS]

00:27:49   also not last year but for the when they [TS]

00:27:53   did the watch the watch unveiling was [TS]

00:27:55   was in San Jose uh yeah where was that I [TS]

00:28:00   forget where it was I don't think it was [TS]

00:28:01   San Jose no it was at the the watch [TS]

00:28:04   unveiling was at the the College in [TS]

00:28:08   Cupertino [TS]

00:28:08   oh is that was that Cupertino I I hope [TS]

00:28:12   it wasn't it's like some that I forget [TS]

00:28:15   the name of the college but De Anza or [TS]

00:28:17   something I I forget what the hell of [TS]

00:28:19   this but it was not know the one that [TS]

00:28:20   was in San Jose was an iPad event like [TS]

00:28:23   in 2011 I think or 2012 I don't know it [TS]

00:28:26   was right before Scott Forstall got [TS]

00:28:28   fired how was the how was the the Danza [TS]

00:28:33   auditorium or whatever it was I was all [TS]

00:28:35   right it wasn't it wasn't anything to [TS]

00:28:39   write home about that was the one where [TS]

00:28:41   Apple build a big mysterious white box [TS]

00:28:42   out front right right right and that was [TS]

00:28:44   the end ecology of the ends is that what [TS]

00:28:46   it is DeAnza College [TS]

00:28:48   yep um it was okay uh I'm not surprised [TS]

00:28:52   that they haven't been back since I [TS]

00:28:54   don't think it was great I think the one [TS]

00:28:56   thing people don't seem to understand is [TS]

00:28:58   that this Steve Jobs theater is not that [TS]

00:29:00   big either like there's no way they [TS]

00:29:01   can't have like a WWE seeking out there [TS]

00:29:07   some people have speculated that you [TS]

00:29:09   know maybe this year they'll secretly [TS]

00:29:11   bus everybody to the new campus to have [TS]

00:29:13   the keynote there or something that's [TS]

00:29:14   like--that's that no you can't but it [TS]

00:29:17   can't bus 5,000 people there but B it's [TS]

00:29:20   not a 5,000 person auditorium I don't [TS]

00:29:21   know what this evening and see that they [TS]

00:29:23   don't want 5,000 people writing her on [TS]

00:29:25   that campus right I don't think yeah I [TS]

00:29:27   don't think they want people on their [TS]

00:29:28   campus well be the old the old uh the [TS]

00:29:31   old one town uh what's called God [TS]

00:29:33   yeah Tony Hall that was tiny that was [TS]

00:29:36   turn it was like but I said I'm sure [TS]

00:29:39   yeah that makes sense though I suppose [TS]

00:29:42   the I bet WABC will end up back in San [TS]

00:29:45   Francisco we'll see I'll probably see [TS]

00:29:48   how it goes this year and then because [TS]

00:29:50   the reason it's in San Jose this year is [TS]

00:29:51   because Moscone Center construction I [TS]

00:29:53   don't know what I don't believe that [TS]

00:29:55   I really don't what well basically all [TS]

00:29:57   of the but everyone is not in Moscone by [TS]

00:30:01   and large like how they have there been [TS]

00:30:02   any big events there I mean I know only [TS]

00:30:03   part of Muskaan's are construction but I [TS]

00:30:05   don't think Apple is the only one to let [TS]

00:30:08   their stuff on their schedule if you [TS]

00:30:09   look it's so north and south Moscone [TS]

00:30:11   north and south the big like the expo [TS]

00:30:13   hall ones are closed and they're ripping [TS]

00:30:15   up the street i if there's an argument [TS]

00:30:17   for it it's the fact that they've got [TS]

00:30:19   the street ripped up I guess that's [TS]

00:30:20   Howard Street is all ripped up for the [TS]

00:30:23   north and south expansion but Moscone [TS]

00:30:25   West is still open and is not being [TS]

00:30:27   renovated and I've you know before Apple [TS]

00:30:30   made this announcement you could look on [TS]

00:30:31   the schedule in their world you know [TS]

00:30:33   there was like one open week in June but [TS]

00:30:35   the otherwise there's stuff in Moscone [TS]

00:30:37   week Moscone West all the time I could [TS]

00:30:41   be wrong yeah not are you right I don't [TS]

00:30:44   know I mean who cares if the streets [TS]

00:30:46   ripped up I've seen people say well the [TS]

00:30:47   streets all ripped up oh who gives a [TS]

00:30:49   crap [TS]

00:30:49   I don't know you'd say nobody's done [TS]

00:30:51   like everybody's driving down Howard [TS]

00:30:53   Street to get to WWDC I think if Apple [TS]

00:30:55   wanted to have it at Moscone West this [TS]

00:30:57   year they would have [TS]

00:30:58   I think there's other reasons you know [TS]

00:31:01   whether they got a better deal whether [TS]

00:31:03   they really you know I I do think I [TS]

00:31:05   think Apple is if you can put a [TS]

00:31:07   personality on a company there are a [TS]

00:31:09   homebody company they they don't that [TS]

00:31:13   are not a San Francisco company I know [TS]

00:31:14   they have a couple of offices there but [TS]

00:31:16   you know they really are at as a company [TS]

00:31:19   they're at home on their campus in [TS]

00:31:21   Cupertino and I feel like they being [TS]

00:31:23   closer to home is better for them yeah [TS]

00:31:26   no question I mean just being in the [TS]

00:31:30   valley I mean they're they're not it's [TS]

00:31:31   it's own insular sort of culture like [TS]

00:31:34   it's much less sort of interspersed I've [TS]

00:31:37   obviously an employee level that's on [TS]

00:31:39   the solicit case but especially once you [TS]

00:31:41   get more into senior management I mean [TS]

00:31:42   it's it's it's own world like it's in [TS]

00:31:45   the same geographic area but the rest of [TS]

00:31:48   the valley I think is much more [TS]

00:31:49   intertwined with Google and there's much [TS]

00:31:53   more of a sort of back and forth in in [TS]

00:31:54   that perspective when it comes to sort [TS]

00:31:56   of Big Valley companies and and you know [TS]

00:31:58   in San Francisco but yeah my Apple has [TS]

00:32:00   always been its own its own sort of [TS]

00:32:03   universe and you see it you see that all [TS]

00:32:05   over the place not just in the valley [TS]

00:32:06   you see it sort of online you see it [TS]

00:32:08   when it comes to Apple fans there's a [TS]

00:32:10   lot of people who are Apple fans or that [TS]

00:32:11   are not necessarily tech fans you know I [TS]

00:32:14   actually see that when it comes to like [TS]

00:32:15   readers and you see it you know in [TS]

00:32:19   popular culture where yeah it's [TS]

00:32:22   interesting it really is its own sort of [TS]

00:32:23   its own sort of entity for better or [TS]

00:32:26   worse yeah and I think at a practical [TS]

00:32:28   level it's absolutely the case I mean [TS]

00:32:30   there's no argument no spin it's just [TS]

00:32:32   just a fact that San Jose is so much [TS]

00:32:35   closer to Apple's campus or campuses and [TS]

00:32:39   Cupertino that for engineers at Apple [TS]

00:32:43   who have things to do that week that [TS]

00:32:46   they need to be at the office they can [TS]

00:32:47   swing by they might be able to do a [TS]

00:32:49   couple of hours work in their office and [TS]

00:32:51   then go to WWDC in the afternoon for [TS]

00:32:55   labs or something like that and people [TS]

00:32:57   might get you know attendees might get [TS]

00:32:59   interaction with significantly more [TS]

00:33:01   engineers from Apple who couldn't take [TS]

00:33:03   an entire day to go up to San Francisco [TS]

00:33:06   because it's night and day [TS]

00:33:07   I mean San Francisco is can be over an [TS]

00:33:10   hour away [TS]

00:33:11   depending on traffic and San Jose it's [TS]

00:33:14   you know probably like 10 15 minute [TS]

00:33:15   drive yep yep exactly as you you found [TS]

00:33:19   us you found a good spot for for the [TS]

00:33:21   talk show yeah yeah I'm in that [TS]

00:33:22   California theater where that iPad event [TS]

00:33:26   was the one that was in San Jose so he's [TS]

00:33:30   a lot bigger than the old place good [TS]

00:33:32   place where I had my show yeah oh my god [TS]

00:33:34   it's so much bigger it's guys like as I [TS]

00:33:37   get 1,100 seat capacity and I thought [TS]

00:33:39   that when we had it mezzanine in San [TS]

00:33:42   Francisco which I love which I still if [TS]

00:33:44   you know I love that facility I love [TS]

00:33:47   doing a show there but I think we capped [TS]

00:33:48   it at 500 I think you could mezzanine a [TS]

00:33:53   attendance cap is significantly higher [TS]

00:33:55   than that but 500 seems to you know and [TS]

00:33:58   and judging from people's reactions over [TS]

00:34:00   the years if it's it keeps it from [TS]

00:34:02   getting too crowded like I don't want to [TS]

00:34:04   attack the most number of people in [TS]

00:34:05   there I feel bad when people like I [TS]

00:34:08   think tickets sold out in like 10 [TS]

00:34:09   minutes last year so I feel bad that [TS]

00:34:10   people want to go can't come but I'd [TS]

00:34:13   rather have everybody I draw there are [TS]

00:34:16   fewer people come and more people [TS]

00:34:17   excluded but have everybody be [TS]

00:34:19   comfortable but I uh yeah are there [TS]

00:34:21   gonna be drinks I think that's probably [TS]

00:34:23   the the more pressing question there [TS]

00:34:24   will be drinks and I don't know how [TS]

00:34:26   that's going to work because it's a [TS]

00:34:28   the--it's a real theater theater and I [TS]

00:34:30   don't know yeah any pictures right now [TS]

00:34:31   right I don't know how easy it'll be for [TS]

00:34:33   people who are sitting in the middle of [TS]

00:34:34   a road to go get drinks so I don't know [TS]

00:34:36   it might have to be sort of a you know [TS]

00:34:40   get your load on get your load on before [TS]

00:34:42   the show starts that was the great thing [TS]

00:34:43   about Bethenny's you could like every [TS]

00:34:45   obviously there was the seating and if [TS]

00:34:46   you're in a seat was the your [TS]

00:34:48   interviewer or you know the show was [TS]

00:34:50   going on you wouldn't get up and go but [TS]

00:34:51   you could also just sort of be in the [TS]

00:34:53   back and be you know mingling a little [TS]

00:34:55   bit and getting a drink and uh so yeah [TS]

00:34:58   it kind of served a you could watch you [TS]

00:35:00   could watch the show in multiple in [TS]

00:35:02   multiple ways okay which was nice well [TS]

00:35:05   we'll see I don't know [TS]

00:35:05   but 1,100 people Jesus that's going to [TS]

00:35:07   be nerve-racking as a balcony and [TS]

00:35:10   everything it does is it's very [TS]

00:35:12   beautiful I'm looking at the looking at [TS]

00:35:14   the pictures right now yeah take it [TS]

00:35:17   still aren't on sale but they will be [TS]

00:35:18   soon [TS]

00:35:20   that's right now okay I forgot that you [TS]

00:35:24   hadn't I like that maybe people give the [TS]

00:35:26   Munsell with how you post what I am you [TS]

00:35:28   know I'm not waiting till the last [TS]

00:35:29   minute but it's just lots of little too [TS]

00:35:31   it's not too much work I don't have to [TS]

00:35:33   it's not like I'm sitting there hooking [TS]

00:35:34   microphones up and stuff but there's a [TS]

00:35:37   lot of details to be worked out yet [TS]

00:35:38   anyway well hopefully hopefully I didn't [TS]

00:35:40   give it give anything away no no no no [TS]

00:35:42   no no that's a secret it even the venue [TS]

00:35:44   is art it's right there on apple's [TS]

00:35:45   website and stuff like that so i'm not [TS]

00:35:47   keeping it secret anyway let's take a [TS]

00:35:50   break i thank our four sponsors our good [TS]

00:35:51   friends at fracture fracture is the [TS]

00:35:54   photo decor company that's out to rescue [TS]

00:35:56   your favorite images from the digital [TS]

00:35:58   ether that's their words not mine here's [TS]

00:36:01   what they do they take your photos they [TS]

00:36:02   print them directly on glass right there [TS]

00:36:04   on the glass on the glass not a piece of [TS]

00:36:06   paper glued to glass they I don't know [TS]

00:36:08   what they have they've custom [TS]

00:36:09   proprietary stuff they just put glass [TS]

00:36:12   into the printer the printer puts your [TS]

00:36:15   photo right on the glass and then they [TS]

00:36:16   mail it to you and it looks amazing it's [TS]

00:36:19   got that Retina effect where it just [TS]

00:36:21   looks like it doesn't look it looks [TS]

00:36:23   there's just such a different effect [TS]

00:36:25   than a piece of paper behind a piece of [TS]

00:36:27   glass and frame and it takes all the [TS]

00:36:30   pain-in-the-ass stuff out of hanging [TS]

00:36:32   pictures up because this happens to me [TS]

00:36:34   every time every time I used to get like [TS]

00:36:37   Ikea frames or something like that you'd [TS]

00:36:38   put a photo in there and then you have [TS]

00:36:40   to get those little things on the back [TS]

00:36:42   that take that secure the cardboard you [TS]

00:36:44   flip them up and then you put the [TS]

00:36:46   picture in then you put the cardboard [TS]

00:36:47   back in and you flip them back down and [TS]

00:36:48   inevitably the picture goes like two [TS]

00:36:50   degrees off and you got to open it up [TS]

00:36:53   start all over again what a pain in the [TS]

00:36:54   ass with the pictures from fractured [TS]

00:36:57   there's nothing like that can happen [TS]

00:36:58   it's just a piece of glass so it's [TS]

00:36:59   always perfectly aligned and they ship [TS]

00:37:02   you everything you need to hang it on [TS]

00:37:04   the wall in the box they even include [TS]

00:37:06   the wall anchor just upload your digital [TS]

00:37:08   photo on their website pick the size and [TS]

00:37:10   just wait for it to show up in a mail [TS]

00:37:12   that's it could not be easier where do [TS]

00:37:15   you go to find out more fracture me.com [TS]

00:37:18   slash podcast not did everyone every [TS]

00:37:22   time I read it I feel like I'm making a [TS]

00:37:23   mistake and that that's some kind of [TS]

00:37:25   placeholder but that's really the URL [TS]

00:37:26   fracture me.com slash podcast and then I [TS]

00:37:30   guess they use the same URL for all [TS]

00:37:32   podcasts but then at the end when you [TS]

00:37:34   they'll say hey where'd you find out [TS]

00:37:35   about fracture and you can say the talk [TS]

00:37:37   show [TS]

00:37:38   hey go buy something for Father's Day [TS]

00:37:40   it's a great great gift too late for [TS]

00:37:41   Mother's Day Mother's Day is like two [TS]

00:37:43   days from now but fathers days coming up [TS]

00:37:46   next month what an amazing gift go buy a [TS]

00:37:49   fracture for your for your father your [TS]

00:37:51   husband anything like that what a great [TS]

00:37:53   gift [TS]

00:37:55   well I fractured me is is memorable yeah [TS]

00:37:59   and to your l's at euros are hard [TS]

00:38:01   there's someone was making fun of there [TS]

00:38:04   is a tweets and effective tech before so [TS]

00:38:07   are so uncreated that they have a site [TS]

00:38:09   about strategy and tactile trajectory [TS]

00:38:10   and I'm like it's it's true I've no I've [TS]

00:38:13   no excuse every dairy firewall as always [TS]

00:38:16   I'm always like damaged I should have [TS]

00:38:19   hired you to get a name you find me a [TS]

00:38:21   name before I started but I know it's [TS]

00:38:23   now it's too late [TS]

00:38:24   it's the other thing too is is getting [TS]

00:38:25   any URLs hard and the one of the things [TS]

00:38:27   when I started I had no money I was I [TS]

00:38:30   was in debt that you know and the idea [TS]

00:38:33   like going out and spending money to get [TS]

00:38:35   a a URL or whatever or Twitter handle [TS]

00:38:38   stuff like one of the advantages of [TS]

00:38:40   trajectory is it was available um I [TS]

00:38:41   would I like I said I probably wouldn't [TS]

00:38:43   use it again if I starting over because [TS]

00:38:45   it's you know so hard to say hard to [TS]

00:38:46   spell hahaha which is not a good not a [TS]

00:38:49   good combo but but yeah it's it's hard [TS]

00:38:52   you the whole URL Twitter handle thing [TS]

00:38:55   is uh it's tough you know I remember [TS]

00:38:59   fracture me especially now after you [TS]

00:39:01   sort of made that that that little joke [TS]

00:39:03   you know that I have during fireball [TS]

00:39:06   calm right yeah but it redirects to done [TS]

00:39:09   it right and some people don't ask about [TS]

00:39:11   that anymore in the early years people [TS]

00:39:12   would be like why why do you why do you [TS]

00:39:14   redirect to.net why don't you know [TS]

00:39:16   wouldn't would most people if I have [TS]

00:39:18   both redirected calm and I think it's [TS]

00:39:22   like to me it's like I started using the [TS]

00:39:24   internet so early when most domains [TS]

00:39:28   weren't comms you know like dot orgs and [TS]

00:39:31   dot ed use bed use were probably the [TS]

00:39:33   most popular that I used uh and net to [TS]

00:39:37   but to me.com was sort of crass in the [TS]

00:39:41   early years and I know that in the you [TS]

00:39:43   know after the document even called the [TS]

00:39:45   bubble the calm bubble like [TS]

00:39:47   sort of became the the neutral one right [TS]

00:39:51   it's like ground zero of all the [TS]

00:39:53   top-level domains like by default you [TS]

00:39:55   wanna calm but like when I was I'm in my [TS]

00:39:59   mind it still is sort of crass I don't [TS]

00:40:01   know [TS]

00:40:02   again the early years all the dot-com [TS]

00:40:04   sites were garbage right with it was [TS]

00:40:08   supposed to be like commercial right I [TS]

00:40:09   think it was dancefloor then try I like [TS]

00:40:12   I liked I agree I like dotnet better but [TS]

00:40:15   yes I give in to the to the prevailing I [TS]

00:40:18   own trajectory got net also but it [TS]

00:40:19   redirects in the opposite direction [TS]

00:40:21   right and like Kottke I think a lot of [TS]

00:40:23   really early types you know like me I [TS]

00:40:27   was it like hockey org yeah and I just [TS]

00:40:29   it wouldn't work like neither it somehow [TS]

00:40:32   is part of the domain like cocky net [TS]

00:40:34   wouldn't be right cocky calm would be [TS]

00:40:36   awful like it just it wouldn't be the [TS]

00:40:39   same like Kottke org is exactly right [TS]

00:40:41   and for whatever reason in my mind it's [TS]

00:40:44   just like when you rewrite a sentence [TS]

00:40:46   and just use the same words but you put [TS]

00:40:49   a clause in the middle of the sentence [TS]

00:40:51   as opposed to at the end or something [TS]

00:40:52   like that and one way reads great in one [TS]

00:40:54   way it doesn't to me daring firebolt net [TS]

00:40:56   reads better than daring fireball calm I [TS]

00:41:00   relayed the great thing [TS]

00:41:01   Mozart go ahead go ahead man oh no I [TS]

00:41:04   just I just gonna say there's a great [TS]

00:41:05   thing about daring fireball is it's so [TS]

00:41:07   distinct that you can one if you type [TS]

00:41:11   these if you type in URL and then the [TS]

00:41:13   thing is that no one actually types you [TS]

00:41:14   know us us nerds do but the best or [TS]

00:41:16   people don't even you know type URLs [TS]

00:41:19   like the google has the whole you know [TS]

00:41:22   uh like a huge number back in the day [TS]

00:41:25   like they they could track how popular [TS]

00:41:27   Facebook was because my people you know [TS]

00:41:28   typing Facebook into Google to go to [TS]

00:41:30   Facebook know what's more people doesn't [TS]

00:41:33   really rusher but that's great about [TS]

00:41:34   during fireball even if you do your L or [TS]

00:41:36   you do a Google search whatever it's [TS]

00:41:37   going to its memorable and it's going to [TS]

00:41:39   come up right away [TS]

00:41:40   wasn't there a thing where oh off the [TS]

00:41:43   top of my head I'm not remembering it [TS]

00:41:45   right but there was a thing where the [TS]

00:41:46   number one result for facebook login was [TS]

00:41:48   no longer the facebook login page and [TS]

00:41:51   the poor bugger who had it was just some [TS]

00:41:54   guy site or something and they the guy [TS]

00:41:56   was just inundated with thousands of [TS]

00:41:58   people saying how to [TS]

00:42:00   what have you done to Facebook this [TS]

00:42:01   doesn't look like Facebook do you [TS]

00:42:03   remember that I I don't but that would [TS]

00:42:06   be brutal [TS]

00:42:06   right it's pretty because that's how [TS]

00:42:08   people get to the facebook login sign [TS]

00:42:10   they go to Google and then type facebook [TS]

00:42:12   login hit return I'll expect expect to [TS]

00:42:15   be taken there funny stuff that's what [TS]

00:42:20   my son gets around the internet he just [TS]

00:42:21   type stuff into Google yeah that's [TS]

00:42:24   that's pretty normal [TS]

00:42:26   baby that's pretty normal behavior I [TS]

00:42:27   mean if people you know to the extent [TS]

00:42:30   people are still using the Internet I [TS]

00:42:32   mean it's uh it it really shows the [TS]

00:42:36   extent to which Google is the sort of [TS]

00:42:39   linchpin for the Internet I mean yes you [TS]

00:42:41   can type your Elle's go to places but [TS]

00:42:43   the reality is in the way that people [TS]

00:42:45   actually experience online is is the [TS]

00:42:48   rule it's not just about like typing [TS]

00:42:49   Facebook into Google search page but [TS]

00:42:52   there's just so much stuff there's [TS]

00:42:54   there's so many things that it's [TS]

00:42:58   incomprehensible to to anyone even the [TS]

00:43:01   smartest person person on earth I mean [TS]

00:43:03   and Google what make schools so [TS]

00:43:05   brilliant is such a brilliant sort of [TS]

00:43:07   invention is that you know the old [TS]

00:43:10   search engines the more stuff there was [TS]

00:43:13   the more they bogged down because they [TS]

00:43:14   were you know I mean the original Yahoo [TS]

00:43:16   was literally a directory I mean [TS]

00:43:17   obviously the future search engines [TS]

00:43:18   weren't you were much more sophisticated [TS]

00:43:20   but Google by sort of building on top of [TS]

00:43:23   the link instead of building on top of [TS]

00:43:24   the pages themselves it well it turned [TS]

00:43:27   out when you got more links Google got [TS]

00:43:29   smarter and understood it better and [TS]

00:43:31   well when the web got larger everyone [TS]

00:43:34   else got worse except for Google which [TS]

00:43:36   actually got even better and and and [TS]

00:43:38   that's you know that's sort of the core [TS]

00:43:40   piece of the company's dominance and and [TS]

00:43:43   why they're the you know the winch pin [TS]

00:43:46   for for the entire Internet which brings [TS]

00:43:50   us to Windows 10 s and the way that on [TS]

00:43:56   Windows 10s you can't change your [TS]

00:43:58   default search engine you get Bing and [TS]

00:44:00   you like it [TS]

00:44:01   yeah and I think that's I I believe [TS]

00:44:03   they're giving away tennis to yes I am [TS]

00:44:07   so that's that's at the primary way that [TS]

00:44:09   they're going to I mean obviously [TS]

00:44:10   there's app sells as well but app cells [TS]

00:44:13   and and Bing searches and stuff like [TS]

00:44:16   that I think Bing is actually profitable [TS]

00:44:18   now or or very close to it it has been [TS]

00:44:21   for a little bit actually it should be [TS]

00:44:23   don't you think I mean it doesn't make [TS]

00:44:25   sense that they would keep they'd keep [TS]

00:44:27   losing money on it because I mean now [TS]

00:44:28   I'm still you know how much could it [TS]

00:44:30   cost other than labor you know yeah like [TS]

00:44:33   yeah it's where those things where it [TS]

00:44:36   it's not like a Winnie er sort of thing [TS]

00:44:39   where they make a little more money a [TS]

00:44:41   little more money and that now they're [TS]

00:44:42   profitable they're going like it's like [TS]

00:44:43   you're either losing a lot or you're [TS]

00:44:45   making a good amount like once you get [TS]

00:44:48   the sort of scale effects that are [TS]

00:44:49   they're kicking in uh yeah it but it's [TS]

00:44:53   still it's not actually growing pretty [TS]

00:44:54   decently I should I think five five [TS]

00:44:56   point three billion in revenue the last [TS]

00:44:57   fiscal year I should try it again I [TS]

00:44:59   haven't tried Bing in a while I done [TS]

00:45:02   different max are different devices at [TS]

00:45:04   any given time I sometimes switch to [TS]

00:45:06   DuckDuckGo which I admire is the plucky [TS]

00:45:09   little startup you know and their local [TS]

00:45:12   to Philly to its which it gives me a [TS]

00:45:14   little affection for them but I have to [TS]

00:45:16   admit that there there's a lot of times [TS]

00:45:18   with DuckDuckGo where it's semi-free [TS]

00:45:22   yeah if you're going to do it you at [TS]

00:45:24   some point in a week you're going to be [TS]

00:45:26   typing to look there's a trick they have [TS]

00:45:27   you can even type like GE exclamation [TS]

00:45:29   mark and it redoes the same query but [TS]

00:45:31   redirects you to Google because there's [TS]

00:45:34   just sometimes it's you know it's it's [TS]

00:45:36   not as good as Google search I mean they [TS]

00:45:37   do some really cool stuff and I like the [TS]

00:45:39   privacy aspect of it but it sounds good [TS]

00:45:41   but the thing that surprises me is I I [TS]

00:45:43   thought Microsoft might catch up to [TS]

00:45:45   Google search with Bing cuz it seems [TS]

00:45:47   like the sort of problem that Microsoft [TS]

00:45:50   would be able to solve like it never [TS]

00:45:54   surprises me that Microsoft software [TS]

00:45:56   never has is nice of a UI as Apple [TS]

00:45:58   software because it's institutionally [TS]

00:46:00   they're just they just don't have the [TS]

00:46:01   people who have the taste for that but [TS]

00:46:04   web search is really just you don't have [TS]

00:46:07   to have taste for that you know it's [TS]

00:46:09   it's a purely algorithmic challenge to [TS]

00:46:12   get that right well they're not quite [TS]

00:46:14   you need data I mean the [TS]

00:46:15   the thing with Google is it is a the [TS]

00:46:19   algorithm itself is far bit far beyond a [TS]

00:46:23   any one person could you know it was [TS]

00:46:26   designed by a person to start at this [TS]

00:46:28   point it's so complex and have loaded [TS]

00:46:30   and a lot of it is is just constant [TS]

00:46:31   iterative feedback so when people are [TS]

00:46:33   doing searches it not in that I'm not [TS]

00:46:35   about the individual I search is just as [TS]

00:46:37   a whole like which results are they [TS]

00:46:39   quick like Google wants the first the [TS]

00:46:41   proper results we the first result so [TS]

00:46:43   they are tracking which result you [TS]

00:46:45   actually click on where how far down you [TS]

00:46:46   go and and plus websites are optimizing [TS]

00:46:50   cells for Google and they and so by [TS]

00:46:51   crafty has to you know would attach on [TS]

00:46:54   to that but it's one of those situations [TS]

00:46:55   where thanks to the feedback loop that [TS]

00:46:57   comes from having the most data and the [TS]

00:47:00   most users and the most searches if two [TS]

00:47:03   identical search engines if one starts [TS]

00:47:05   at fifty one percent market share and [TS]

00:47:07   one starts at forty nine percent market [TS]

00:47:08   share [TS]

00:47:08   absent sort of any exterior force the [TS]

00:47:12   one with market share is going to get [TS]

00:47:14   better over time relative to the other [TS]

00:47:16   one it which means which and then when [TS]

00:47:18   it gets better that lets it get more [TS]

00:47:20   users because it's a better search [TS]

00:47:21   engine and then it gets even more data [TS]

00:47:24   relative to the competition so it even [TS]

00:47:26   has a bigger advantage so the reality is [TS]

00:47:28   is even Microsoft could have the [TS]

00:47:30   smartest sort of search folks in the [TS]

00:47:31   world but because it's a problem that's [TS]

00:47:33   not just about algorithm design it's [TS]

00:47:36   it's about the entire sort of system and [TS]

00:47:38   having it a feedback loop they will it's [TS]

00:47:41   very difficult to to ever catch up [TS]

00:47:45   absent some sort of like incredible you [TS]

00:47:48   know breakthrough you can't buy your way [TS]

00:47:49   out and all there's no way to write that [TS]

00:47:52   it doesn't get you there that's [TS]

00:47:53   interesting I think your that to me has [TS]

00:47:55   to be the explanation because I just [TS]

00:47:57   don't think that I don't think the [TS]

00:47:59   problem is that Microsoft doesn't have [TS]

00:48:02   the intelligence in the engineering to [TS]

00:48:04   do it I you know and they obviously will [TS]

00:48:06   had no problem spending money on it you [TS]

00:48:09   know for years famously they were losing [TS]

00:48:10   billions on bing I think that's just it [TS]

00:48:14   though that Google so popular that it it [TS]

00:48:16   you know that their popularity feeds [TS]

00:48:19   upon their accuracy right if there are [TS]

00:48:21   seeds upon their popularity and this is [TS]

00:48:24   where Google is in some respects it's [TS]

00:48:26   like a Facebook effect but it's like [TS]

00:48:28   there there is [TS]

00:48:29   sort of network effect but it's not [TS]

00:48:30   necessary about people per se it's the [TS]

00:48:32   interaction between people and the sort [TS]

00:48:34   of data they generate but you get the [TS]

00:48:36   same sort of idea where the larger [TS]

00:48:38   service like because did I think I [TS]

00:48:40   always write a lot of about user [TS]

00:48:42   experience and the point I always have [TS]

00:48:45   to sometimes forget to make this and [TS]

00:48:46   when I forget to make this point I was [TS]

00:48:48   regretted because I get a bunch people [TS]

00:48:49   ask me you know pointing asking [TS]

00:48:50   questions user experience does not mean [TS]

00:48:52   user interface user interface is an [TS]

00:48:54   important part of the user experience [TS]

00:48:56   and is critical you know for something [TS]

00:48:58   like a phone for example that's in your [TS]

00:49:00   hand you're interacting with and [TS]

00:49:02   actually you know we talked about you [TS]

00:49:04   know we can stuff in Congress in a [TS]

00:49:05   little bit but the user experience is [TS]

00:49:08   the totality of the experience which [TS]

00:49:10   means you know having better search [TS]

00:49:12   results means it's a better experience [TS]

00:49:14   having more friends on Facebook more [TS]

00:49:16   family on Facebook not having to try to [TS]

00:49:18   recruit people to get on there means [TS]

00:49:21   it's a better it's a better experience [TS]

00:49:22   that has nothing to do with the [TS]

00:49:23   interface per se and these aspects of [TS]

00:49:26   the experience are they build on [TS]

00:49:28   themselves and this is why you have [TS]

00:49:29   these companies that are so dominant and [TS]

00:49:31   what makes it so tricky and I've been [TS]

00:49:33   writing a lot about this you know over [TS]

00:49:35   the last years so these companies are so [TS]

00:49:37   powerful because of these sort of data [TS]

00:49:39   effects and these network effects and [TS]

00:49:41   they're powerful in a way that's [TS]

00:49:42   actually better for the consumer like [TS]

00:49:44   google is popular because it's better [TS]

00:49:47   which means it gets more users and when [TS]

00:49:49   it gets more users it actually becomes [TS]

00:49:51   even even better which means it's it's [TS]

00:49:53   so there is it's positive on the user [TS]

00:49:55   perspective and same a Facebook it has [TS]

00:49:58   the most user so it more people join it [TS]

00:50:00   because it's there and the more people [TS]

00:50:02   join it now it has more users and you [TS]

00:50:03   get the same sort of feedback loop where [TS]

00:50:06   people choose it because it's better and [TS]

00:50:08   that sort of makes from a anti-trust [TS]

00:50:11   perspective that makes sort of US [TS]

00:50:13   antitrust like fall completely apart [TS]

00:50:15   because it's based on consumer benefit [TS]

00:50:18   and there's actually they're providing a [TS]

00:50:19   ton of consumer benefit that's why [TS]

00:50:20   they're winning right [TS]

00:50:24   all right as a summary of like 15 [TS]

00:50:26   scenarios I've been writing about did [TS]

00:50:30   you see the story that in the verge had [TS]

00:50:33   it that the surface laptop now the most [TS]

00:50:36   like unique thing about these surface [TS]

00:50:38   laptops that they announced is that the [TS]

00:50:39   other than the keyboard and a trackpad [TS]

00:50:41   that what you touch on the front face is [TS]

00:50:44   like a like a soft touch leather like [TS]

00:50:48   fake leather type thing but it's like [TS]

00:50:50   it's called which looks awful to me but [TS]

00:50:53   how Cantara [TS]

00:50:54   apparently a lot of carmakers use it [TS]

00:50:57   high-end car makers well I don't want to [TS]

00:50:59   judge it on photos but from the photos [TS]

00:51:01   to me it looks terrible I would not want [TS]

00:51:04   that I wouldn't if I had the choice when [TS]

00:51:07   buying a laptop whether I just have the [TS]

00:51:09   bare aluminum surface or like no pun [TS]

00:51:13   intended surface or have it covered with [TS]

00:51:15   this stuff if without having seen it in [TS]

00:51:17   person I would zero hesitation I would [TS]

00:51:19   just say just give me the aluminum this [TS]

00:51:20   seems like a disaster yeah but I saw [TS]

00:51:24   people excoriating Microsoft for having [TS]

00:51:27   said told the verge that you need to [TS]

00:51:32   treat it like a like a luxury purse or [TS]

00:51:36   something like that or a luxury handbag [TS]

00:51:39   and I think people took that as meaning [TS]

00:51:43   that it's like dainty and that it's [TS]

00:51:46   you're like you have to treat it [TS]

00:51:47   preciously I think that's how people [TS]

00:51:50   reacted to this like the headline I [TS]

00:51:51   think Microsoft says the fabric on the [TS]

00:51:53   surface laptop should be cared for like [TS]

00:51:55   a luxury handbag and I think the verge [TS]

00:51:59   did a disservice with that headline [TS]

00:52:01   because it's not really that's that [TS]

00:52:03   that's not a quote the only quote in [TS]

00:52:05   that headline is the word luxury here's [TS]

00:52:09   the actual statement from Microsoft I [TS]

00:52:11   hate this use of the word luxury just [TS]

00:52:14   like anything luxury that you buy like [TS]

00:52:16   that it should be luxurious or something [TS]

00:52:19   or any luxury product that you buy but [TS]

00:52:21   it still it seems self-serving for them [TS]

00:52:23   to describe it as luxury but anyway just [TS]

00:52:25   like anything luxury that you buy like [TS]

00:52:28   great handbags or a pair of shoes or [TS]

00:52:30   even expensive cars there is a care [TS]

00:52:32   that's needed for the device the so I [TS]

00:52:37   you know I think Note has to be some [TS]

00:52:39   care for but I think the thing that [TS]

00:52:41   people aren't maybe maybe now you and I [TS]

00:52:43   understand it with with our spouses but [TS]

00:52:47   you can get like there are handbags that [TS]

00:52:51   that are might be you know from a luxury [TS]

00:52:53   brand and they're not really dainty [TS]

00:52:55   they're actually the opposite they're [TS]

00:52:57   actually very they're they're built to [TS]

00:53:00   last for decades you know and yep and [TS]

00:53:03   you know you do have to treat leather [TS]

00:53:04   and if you get it wet you have to take [TS]

00:53:05   care of it right away and stuff like [TS]

00:53:06   that but they actually hold up [TS]

00:53:09   surprisingly well they're not dainty [TS]

00:53:11   little Faberge eggs that are actually [TS]

00:53:13   much more rugged in some ways than than [TS]

00:53:16   typical lower-cost bags so that [TS]

00:53:20   sometimes you like as long as you buy a [TS]

00:53:22   nice bag or some nice pair of shoes that [TS]

00:53:25   are luxury but you buy them because they [TS]

00:53:28   last way longer and hold up much better [TS]

00:53:31   and age much more attractively than [TS]

00:53:33   something that's that's lower costs [TS]

00:53:35   right a difference it was a weird [TS]

00:53:39   Twitter account I was into for a while [TS]

00:53:40   was it was one of those ones that was [TS]

00:53:42   interesting only when it was anonymous [TS]

00:53:43   and then when somebody figured out who [TS]

00:53:45   the guy was there's no fun anymore [TS]

00:53:47   GS elevator remember that it was oh yeah [TS]

00:53:50   yeah it was so so put it was written [TS]

00:53:52   from the perspective of stuff overheard [TS]

00:53:54   in the elevators at Goldman Sachs and it [TS]

00:53:58   was often hilarious often very very rude [TS]

00:54:00   sort of from the that very lewd that bro [TS]

00:54:04   a alpha male banker mentality um but I [TS]

00:54:10   remember the guy who wrote it had liked [TS]

00:54:12   it was like a he also had like articles [TS]

00:54:15   I was just like alright so you got a job [TS]

00:54:16   and an investment bank here's what did [TS]

00:54:18   you know your kid out of college here's [TS]

00:54:20   what here's the clothes that you need to [TS]

00:54:22   buy and one of his things was that you [TS]

00:54:24   should get like I forget I forget if you [TS]

00:54:28   recommended Gucci or what but you know [TS]

00:54:29   something like get like a nice pair of [TS]

00:54:30   Gucci shoes yes there's $800 or $700 but [TS]

00:54:34   they will last you way longer than 10 [TS]

00:54:38   pairs of $200 shoes if you take care of [TS]

00:54:41   right yep you know there's obviously [TS]

00:54:44   some things that are luxury priced that [TS]

00:54:45   are not you know that you're just you [TS]

00:54:48   know like a sports car like if you buy a [TS]

00:54:49   Lamborghini you're just pissing money [TS]

00:54:51   it's not really it you're not really [TS]

00:54:54   buying it for the value of I mean the [TS]

00:54:58   car is valuable but it's not like you're [TS]

00:55:00   not going to sink tens of thousands of [TS]

00:55:01   dollars in it maintenance as you go like [TS]

00:55:03   nobody buys a Lamborghini because it's [TS]

00:55:05   worth it's a good investment reliability [TS]

00:55:08   wise compared to a Honda right yep we're [TS]

00:55:12   but there are some things like a nice [TS]

00:55:14   shoe or a nice belt or something like [TS]

00:55:15   that where you actually yes you're [TS]

00:55:17   paying a lot of money but it's actually [TS]

00:55:19   might be you might be paying five times [TS]

00:55:20   more than what you're used to but you're [TS]

00:55:22   actually getting like ten times better [TS]

00:55:23   product I don't think that the surface [TS]

00:55:26   laptop is like that though I don't know [TS]

00:55:28   yeah yeah I went to that's not I went to [TS]

00:55:31   use that word choice and yeah that now [TS]

00:55:33   that I'm looking at that just like [TS]

00:55:35   anything luxury that's driving me up the [TS]

00:55:37   wall that's that's terrible they have to [TS]

00:55:39   they have to have tested this I know [TS]

00:55:41   it's like last week on the showed Renee [TS]

00:55:44   and I were joking about that the iPad [TS]

00:55:45   our iPod that Kate I think was like an [TS]

00:55:48   iPod Nano that was super easily [TS]

00:55:51   scratched do you remember that was the [TS]

00:55:53   original the original nano yeah it was I [TS]

00:55:56   almost in a you know I would love is one [TS]

00:55:58   of those like behind the scenes things I [TS]

00:56:00   would love to someday get that story out [TS]

00:56:02   of Apple as to how in the hell did they [TS]

00:56:05   make tens of thousands of these things [TS]

00:56:08   or a half a million of these things out [TS]

00:56:09   of a plastic that you scratch with your [TS]

00:56:11   fingernail like what the hell are they [TS]

00:56:14   thinking how did that not get caught in [TS]

00:56:15   testing I don't mean if you saw one like [TS]

00:56:19   they and with in not long I mean they [TS]

00:56:22   would be just completely destroyed like [TS]

00:56:23   to the point where you could barely even [TS]

00:56:25   read the screen we in the whole it was [TS]

00:56:27   the whole front not just the screen like [TS]

00:56:28   the entire surface would be right would [TS]

00:56:30   be just completely yeah all shredded up [TS]

00:56:33   yeah it's hard to remember compared to I [TS]

00:56:35   phones where everything is so much [TS]

00:56:37   closer to the surface now but with the [TS]

00:56:40   iPods even with the Nano there was sort [TS]

00:56:42   of a thick layer of screen or not even [TS]

00:56:45   screen but just plastic on the whole [TS]

00:56:47   front of all these models or a bunch of [TS]

00:56:50   them I remember we got demand when I was [TS]

00:56:53   working at Giant I forget we hit some [TS]

00:56:56   kind of milestone or something and so [TS]

00:56:57   everybody in the company got one as a [TS]

00:56:59   gift [TS]

00:57:01   and in our company like Chad I forget we [TS]

00:57:06   even used for chat it wasn't slack [TS]

00:57:08   obviously wasn't around but the [TS]

00:57:09   equivalent of slacks IRC I wasn't IRC [TS]

00:57:12   that I forget what we were using but uh [TS]

00:57:13   hip hip hip tin and that was a long [TS]

00:57:16   title - yeah I don't remember uh I don't [TS]

00:57:19   know why I'm trying to bank on it but we [TS]

00:57:20   had like a company-wide chat who [TS]

00:57:21   everybody got these in we're like [TS]

00:57:22   everybody was you know having fun with [TS]

00:57:24   their new iPod in and it took like an [TS]

00:57:26   hour for people to be like holy shit [TS]

00:57:28   it's mines all scratched up yep anyway [TS]

00:57:32   it doesn't five man has already been 12 [TS]

00:57:35   years I can't help but think that [TS]

00:57:36   Microsoft had to have like stress tested [TS]

00:57:39   these things with actual sweaty palms in [TS]

00:57:42   you know warm you know use it you know [TS]

00:57:45   use this for a while with you know maybe [TS]

00:57:47   have us in a warm room with somebody who [TS]

00:57:50   sweats through their palms or something [TS]

00:57:51   right these things can't just pick up [TS]

00:57:53   ugly palm sweat stains yeah I mean I'm [TS]

00:57:57   not that's right I want to admit to this [TS]

00:57:59   but my even my MacBook is always the [TS]

00:58:03   keyboard and that all ends up just [TS]

00:58:05   totally filthy it's pretty disgusting [TS]

00:58:06   actually I should probably clean it yeah [TS]

00:58:09   you probably should that's Crispin I [TS]

00:58:11   don't know I I just doesn't see my the [TS]

00:58:14   more I think about it this just doesn't [TS]

00:58:15   seem like a good idea I don't know it [TS]

00:58:17   just seems it too many laptops get too [TS]

00:58:20   grungy as is as as as easy to clean a [TS]

00:58:23   surface as aluminum is I mean it's [TS]

00:58:26   pretty hard to think of something that's [TS]

00:58:27   easier to clean than that it everyone [TS]

00:58:29   just wants everyone just wants them to [TS]

00:58:30   make a nice laptop that's all they want [TS]

00:58:32   just a regular they like but so they did [TS]

00:58:34   the surface book thing over they did the [TS]

00:58:36   surface and the surface book thing and [TS]

00:58:37   now there's a laptop but yeah it has it [TS]

00:58:39   has did but I mean there's I know [TS]

00:58:42   there's lots of politics and competing [TS]

00:58:43   with the OEMs all sort of stuff but but [TS]

00:58:47   yeah I'd rather get it I'd rather get a [TS]

00:58:50   think pad with the nub anyway I know I [TS]

00:58:55   know I mean I think it's it's so [TS]

00:58:57   different [TS]

00:58:58   I don't know didn't they used in the old [TS]

00:58:59   days it was like the nub was the only [TS]

00:59:00   thing right they didn't even have a [TS]

00:59:01   trackpad yep it used to be just just to [TS]

00:59:04   Justin up but not yeah they are both now [TS]

00:59:06   that's almost like an apple like [TS]

00:59:07   devotion like apples devotion to the [TS]

00:59:10   single button Mouse [TS]

00:59:11   you know in the world where everybody [TS]

00:59:12   went the other way the old IBM ThinkPads [TS]

00:59:15   devotion to the little red nub yeah well [TS]

00:59:19   I mean if you there's a lot of people [TS]

00:59:20   that I mean not like as relatively [TS]

00:59:22   speaking out a ton but there are you [TS]

00:59:25   know people like it I mean once you is [TS]

00:59:26   if you're used to it it's one of those [TS]

00:59:28   things where if you really like it like [TS]

00:59:30   why would you you're gonna just keep I [TS]

00:59:34   think that you drive even think about it [TS]

00:59:36   and I think part of the problem too is [TS]

00:59:37   this you know touchpads have always been [TS]

00:59:39   so terrible on Windows right that [TS]

00:59:41   showdown that was the big reason yeah [TS]

00:59:43   those are the big reasons that I when I [TS]

00:59:44   rise using OS that Microsoft I used to [TS]

00:59:47   think pad and that was the biggest [TS]

00:59:50   reason I started using it up in the [TS]

00:59:52   first place that the trackpad was [TS]

00:59:53   atrocious but then you know you use it [TS]

00:59:55   and you actually grow to really really [TS]

00:59:57   like it I mean the the not having to uh [TS]

00:59:57   like it I mean the the not having to uh [TS]

01:00:00   um I mean you're absolutely used to it [TS]

01:00:01   moving you move your hand much on on a [TS]

01:00:04   um on a computer but on a MacBook but [TS]

01:00:09   just having right there what you're used [TS]

01:00:10   to it's it's nice yeah it's great it's [TS]

01:00:12   given them an actual like [TS]

01:00:13   differentiation it's it in a world you [TS]

01:00:16   know like the big problem that PC OEMs [TS]

01:00:18   have is that what what's to keep you [TS]

01:00:20   know let's say you sell somebody an HP [TS]

01:00:22   laptop once they keep them from buying a [TS]

01:00:24   different brand the next time they buy [TS]

01:00:26   one nothing really [TS]

01:00:27   it's yep and the little red nubbin is [TS]

01:00:30   actually a little bit of a [TS]

01:00:31   differentiator if they have the the [TS]

01:00:35   muscle memory port yep I always thought [TS]

01:00:39   they were weird anyway what else do want [TS]

01:00:47   to talk about before we get to that what [TS]

01:00:49   Oh to to the to the WeChat thing yeah uh [TS]

01:00:53   well I think I actually think we've [TS]

01:00:55   through talk about various things have [TS]

01:00:57   have set the stage set set the stage [TS]

01:01:00   nicely so um oh yeah what do you think [TS]

01:01:04   about the two new echoes there's the oh [TS]

01:01:06   yeah there's the camera one and then [TS]

01:01:08   there's the the one with the screen well [TS]

01:01:09   let's talk about that after I thank [TS]

01:01:11   another one of our friends it's our good [TS]

01:01:13   friend just a new sponsor first time I [TS]

01:01:15   really like this company though Pingdom [TS]

01:01:18   p ing do em some it's a service for [TS]

01:01:23   monitoring web sites and servers you can [TS]

01:01:25   go to wpm calm /l p / talk-show Pingdom [TS]

01:01:32   comm /l p / talk-show and have a nice [TS]

01:01:36   little landing page there for towed [TS]

01:01:38   listeners of the show address just to [TS]

01:01:40   you you get a 14-day free trial and when [TS]

01:01:43   you enter the code the talk show a check [TS]

01:01:46   out you get 20% off your first invoice [TS]

01:01:49   that's a big deal 20% being that makes [TS]

01:01:51   the web faster and more reliable for [TS]

01:01:52   everyone by offering powerful easy to [TS]

01:01:55   use monitoring tools and services for [TS]

01:01:57   any one of the website you can do [TS]

01:02:00   anything with these guys it's really [TS]

01:02:01   great so you got a web server you can [TS]

01:02:03   just point something to it and they can [TS]

01:02:04   like simulate visits it's not just like [TS]

01:02:06   a ping to the server even though that's [TS]

01:02:08   their name but they can actually [TS]

01:02:09   simulate an actual visit to the website [TS]

01:02:11   and you can write tests to make sure [TS]

01:02:12   certain [TS]

01:02:13   components and modern websites have so [TS]

01:02:15   many things where you're drawing things [TS]

01:02:17   from multiple services to to make your [TS]

01:02:20   website where it's not just one server [TS]

01:02:24   that can go down there's all sorts of [TS]

01:02:25   fail points along the way and you can [TS]

01:02:27   write these tests with Pingdom to test [TS]

01:02:29   if everything that you expect to be [TS]

01:02:30   working is working and when it's not [TS]

01:02:33   they'll notify you instantly Pingdom [TS]

01:02:36   detects more than 13 million outages [TS]

01:02:39   more than 400,000 outages every day Wow [TS]

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01:02:53   by a whole bunch of big names if you go [TS]

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01:02:58   /lp slash talk show and just look at the [TS]

01:03:01   big names that use Pingdom for [TS]

01:03:03   monitoring their service servers and [TS]

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01:03:10   came from the show and remember that [TS]

01:03:12   code the talk show you'll save 20% on [TS]

01:03:15   your first invoice [TS]

01:03:16   my thanks to Pingdom great great service [TS]

01:03:20   yeah so Amazon they have two new what do [TS]

01:03:26   they call them echo products they both [TS]

01:03:27   yeah there's an echo look which is the [TS]

01:03:30   just a camera and then there's the in [TS]

01:03:32   bill met they're pitching it for putting [TS]

01:03:35   in your closet right or wardrobe and [TS]

01:03:38   then the echo the bigger probably the [TS]

01:03:41   one they made a bigger splash about was [TS]

01:03:43   the echo show which is a has a screen [TS]

01:03:46   pen screen this is now now echo can show [TS]

01:03:48   you things I believe is the tagline [TS]

01:03:50   right and obviously also has a camera [TS]

01:03:52   since it does like photo video calls [TS]

01:03:56   right which I actually think is is the [TS]

01:03:59   most the most interesting part of it and [TS]

01:04:02   it really featured very heavily in the [TS]

01:04:05   sort of the introductory video yeah I [TS]

01:04:09   have to I have to watch that again but [TS]

01:04:10   it did seem like it's almost more like [TS]

01:04:13   the bigger announcement is that they're [TS]

01:04:15   doing their own they don't have a name [TS]

01:04:18   for it though right there's no they [TS]

01:04:19   don't have like a name like FaceTime [TS]

01:04:21   right no it's just it's just uh yeah and [TS]

01:04:24   it's not just the echo show because they [TS]

01:04:27   updated the the Alexa app and so you can [TS]

01:04:31   go between phones and the echo show and [TS]

01:04:34   or or echo showed echo show I don't know [TS]

01:04:39   for sure if you can go phone to phone [TS]

01:04:41   but I presume you I presume you can [TS]

01:04:43   yeah that's not about yesterday I wrote [TS]

01:04:44   that I presume you can and that's gonna [TS]

01:04:46   look it up and then I backed it up right [TS]

01:04:49   but yeah but it but it is basically a [TS]

01:04:51   FaceTime competitor without being called [TS]

01:04:53   a FaceTime competitor but that's [TS]

01:04:55   certainly what it is well it's because [TS]

01:04:57   it would so that the the trick to the [TS]

01:05:01   whole thing is that they've updated the [TS]

01:05:03   the phone app for I guess Android and [TS]

01:05:05   iOS I know the iOS once updated where [TS]

01:05:08   both for you to have one of these calls [TS]

01:05:11   with somebody who doesn't own an echo or [TS]

01:05:15   you know what good who would want to use [TS]

01:05:18   this if you had to be in the room where [TS]

01:05:20   your echo is to get the call thank it's [TS]

01:05:23   like yours all of a sudden you're back [TS]

01:05:24   to like landline days where you've got a [TS]

01:05:27   quick run to the kitchen to take a phone [TS]

01:05:28   call that that's not gonna fly but well [TS]

01:05:32   yeah but I mean I remember all the I [TS]

01:05:36   think the with the echo first first came [TS]

01:05:39   along you know it was it had in the [TS]

01:05:42   original interactive video which [TS]

01:05:44   unfortunately taken down but it was even [TS]

01:05:47   it was super corny and I'm a rock with [TS]

01:05:49   made fun of it but actually I kind of [TS]

01:05:51   liked it because it was and you can see [TS]

01:05:53   the same thing in the new echo show [TS]

01:05:55   video which is it's very sort of there's [TS]

01:05:59   no like fancy like marketing commercial [TS]

01:06:02   stuff going on here it's very [TS]

01:06:03   straightforward like showing people [TS]

01:06:05   explicit use cases for this product and [TS]

01:06:08   people go through use cases like the dad [TS]

01:06:09   is changing the baby's diaper and he's [TS]

01:06:11   ordering new diapers like it's not [TS]

01:06:13   subtle at all but I kind of like that [TS]

01:06:14   like it's you're not limited to a [TS]

01:06:16   30-second grab you're not trying to [TS]

01:06:18   instill sort of I think it's a mistake a [TS]

01:06:21   lot of marketers in tech have [TS]

01:06:23   traditionally made is they've they hire [TS]

01:06:25   these branding agency especially in the [TS]

01:06:27   early attack these Brian agencies that [TS]

01:06:28   we're used to doing like consumer goods [TS]

01:06:30   because we were packaged goods and there [TS]

01:06:31   it's all about building sort of brand [TS]

01:06:33   affinity because the goal is when [TS]

01:06:35   someone's in a store and they're faced [TS]

01:06:37   with like 15 options for crackers that [TS]

01:06:39   they choose [TS]

01:06:41   one or they or Joe or might be they [TS]

01:06:43   choose one and they don't really know [TS]

01:06:45   why they chose it they just they just do [TS]

01:06:47   and that's the payoff of all that [TS]

01:06:49   advertising and branding and all that [TS]

01:06:50   all that that sort of stuff with with [TS]

01:06:52   tech products it's much more of a [TS]

01:06:54   deliberate choice so to use sort of [TS]

01:06:57   brand type marketing I think is much [TS]

01:07:01   inferior to just showing it showing how [TS]

01:07:04   it works I mean this is something that [TS]

01:07:06   somebody my favorite Apple ads actually [TS]

01:07:08   were the original iPhone ads not the [TS]

01:07:11   first one like the holo hello at the [TS]

01:07:12   Academy Awards but now all the ads after [TS]

01:07:14   that for the first year they were just [TS]

01:07:16   showing people using the phone the ones [TS]

01:07:18   were they know that Bob Bircher I think [TS]

01:07:20   is nameless right yeah at the very end [TS]

01:07:22   the phone with the phone and ring so [TS]

01:07:24   they show them reading their times they [TS]

01:07:26   show them uh you know scrolling playing [TS]

01:07:28   a game or not playing a game but doing [TS]

01:07:30   stuff on the phone that you could do on [TS]

01:07:31   the phone and then active at the very [TS]

01:07:33   under commercial and it's the same one [TS]

01:07:34   every time the phone would ring say oh [TS]

01:07:36   and it's a phone and it was so effective [TS]

01:07:38   both in explaining what the iPhone is [TS]

01:07:41   they're also teaching people how to use [TS]

01:07:42   it it was some of my favorite [TS]

01:07:45   commercials just because I think the way [TS]

01:07:47   they really it was a new way of doing [TS]

01:07:51   commercials I think it was much better [TS]

01:07:53   for a tech product and uh something I [TS]

01:07:56   was always very frustrated by when I was [TS]

01:07:58   at Microsoft because I thought they were [TS]

01:08:00   so so many the commercials were in this [TS]

01:08:03   CPG branding mindset when you're selling [TS]

01:08:06   a very different kind of product yeah [TS]

01:08:08   yeah those I phone commercials were [TS]

01:08:10   brilliant because they were fast they [TS]

01:08:12   when they were 30-second spots but they [TS]

01:08:13   they showed things and they I you know [TS]

01:08:17   they showed it they showed the product [TS]

01:08:18   but David was like real things and [TS]

01:08:20   they're like look you maybe you don't [TS]

01:08:21   believe it maybe you hear somebody [TS]

01:08:22   saying you know you can get Maps on your [TS]

01:08:24   phone now and on these iPhones you can [TS]

01:08:26   get a usable map but they'd show it they [TS]

01:08:29   say here look type Starbucks and hit up [TS]

01:08:32   one button very easy just says you know [TS]

01:08:35   like search or whatever and then a map [TS]

01:08:37   shows up showing how far you are from [TS]

01:08:38   Starbucks or whatever the example wasn't [TS]

01:08:40   a commercial yep yep exactly yeah the [TS]

01:08:42   map one was it was it was it was a big [TS]

01:08:43   one and that was any it was so [TS]

01:08:45   immediately became apparent what the [TS]

01:08:47   value was to people right right yeah and [TS]

01:08:50   yet this is something you can it's this [TS]

01:08:52   is something you can understand like [TS]

01:08:54   Apple on [TS]

01:08:55   stood that did it sounds funny but it's [TS]

01:08:58   the thing that I think a lot of tech [TS]

01:09:00   people even tech marketers overlook is [TS]

01:09:02   that you tell a lot of people okay [TS]

01:09:04   you've got a cell phone we know that we [TS]

01:09:08   know you're frustrated by it we know [TS]

01:09:09   that you probably can't figure out how [TS]

01:09:11   to do anything on it other than make the [TS]

01:09:13   phone calls we're trying to sell you a [TS]

01:09:15   phone that does browses the web gets [TS]

01:09:19   your email has maps let you watch [TS]

01:09:23   youtube videos but trust us none of this [TS]

01:09:26   is more complicated and making phone [TS]

01:09:27   calls is even easier than it was on your [TS]

01:09:29   old phone yep [TS]

01:09:31   yeah is that it's exactly right so I [TS]

01:09:33   mean these these at these Amazon echo [TS]

01:09:35   spots are not like that there and [TS]

01:09:38   they're not nearly as you know high [TS]

01:09:40   producing they're still pretty corny but [TS]

01:09:42   if you're showing a product a two [TS]

01:09:45   hundred dollar product and in the [TS]

01:09:47   original echo I think was the same it [TS]

01:09:48   was $99 for Prime members but people are [TS]

01:09:50   on your you're on the web you have [TS]

01:09:52   infinite space you can show as short or [TS]

01:09:54   long a video as you want you're not [TS]

01:09:56   limited to 30 seconds and people are [TS]

01:09:58   being deliberate about their choice why [TS]

01:10:01   not take advantage of that and actually [TS]

01:10:02   show how this product might be useful [TS]

01:10:05   and and I think that's something they've [TS]

01:10:07   done pretty consistently with these and [TS]

01:10:08   and I think I think it's smart I think [TS]

01:10:11   it's a much better way to think about [TS]

01:10:12   you know marketing your product because [TS]

01:10:16   you're marketing a different kind of [TS]

01:10:17   product in a different context [TS]

01:10:18   particular for Amazon because it's you [TS]

01:10:20   know it's it's on there they have a big [TS]

01:10:22   website that they can use yeah I know [TS]

01:10:24   that the I'm going to get the name wrong [TS]

01:10:27   I can't remember these right because [TS]

01:10:28   there's weird like the echo show and I [TS]

01:10:30   could look but it's like to me adopt is [TS]

01:10:32   the little one well echo show is is the [TS]

01:10:36   one with the TV set and right go look is [TS]

01:10:39   the one that's like for your dressing [TS]

01:10:41   room right but you could call it like [TS]

01:10:46   it's one of those things where all right [TS]

01:10:49   echo look is the one that is a camera [TS]

01:10:51   and you show it you get dressed and you [TS]

01:10:53   get like a selfie and you can get like [TS]

01:10:56   some kind of analysis as to whether your [TS]

01:10:58   shoes match your belt or whatever but it [TS]

01:11:01   just the name echo look it could also [TS]

01:11:04   mean the thing that you look at the [TS]

01:11:05   thing with your screen right and echo [TS]

01:11:08   show which is the one with the screen [TS]

01:11:09   that could be the name of the one that's [TS]

01:11:11   the camera like here echo let me show [TS]

01:11:13   you what I'm wearing right yeah I would [TS]

01:11:16   call the other one like just this is [TS]

01:11:17   called echo camera laughing so too good [TS]

01:11:19   is it clear that's what it is right and [TS]

01:11:21   I think the the whole like gives you [TS]

01:11:23   tips on what you wear I I always feel [TS]

01:11:27   like they put that in for the tech geeks [TS]

01:11:28   like I mean the reality is like this [TS]

01:11:30   whole like taking pictures of your [TS]

01:11:33   outfit is a huge thing like a massive [TS]

01:11:35   thing and people do do it every day they [TS]

01:11:37   mostly do it by holding up their arm and [TS]

01:11:38   taking a selfie or staying in front of a [TS]

01:11:40   mirror and snapping a picture like and [TS]

01:11:41   like it's a is it like it's a massive [TS]

01:11:45   massive massive thing so I think that's [TS]

01:11:46   clearly what this product is focused on [TS]

01:11:49   that's the point of it and every maybe [TS]

01:11:52   in the long run it will be useful to [TS]

01:11:54   like do the sort of AI stuff but I was [TS]

01:11:58   like that was like throwing a bone to to [TS]

01:12:00   all the techies saying like oh and [TS]

01:12:02   there's this thing - it's a selfie [TS]

01:12:03   camera like that what it is and it's and [TS]

01:12:06   that's not to belittle it because that [TS]

01:12:08   is a massive market and and it's a [TS]

01:12:11   massive market that's really interesting [TS]

01:12:12   there's lots of stuff about like retail [TS]

01:12:13   and retail changing and one of the big [TS]

01:12:15   drivers of this is social media and on [TS]

01:12:17   social media it used to be back in the [TS]

01:12:20   day like what drove fashion was it was [TS]

01:12:22   all status thing right you want to go [TS]

01:12:23   and you're them all you buy the high [TS]

01:12:25   status items and then you would wear [TS]

01:12:26   them to school or whatever now it's much [TS]

01:12:30   more about standing out poppin on social [TS]

01:12:32   media and variety and having something [TS]

01:12:34   interesting and different is much more [TS]

01:12:35   important and I think playing into that [TS]

01:12:40   I love because you said we wear it to [TS]

01:12:42   school or whatever and you're I know [TS]

01:12:44   exactly why you said that and I think I [TS]

01:12:45   even know why you hesitated after saying [TS]

01:12:47   is I think you had the same thought that [TS]

01:12:49   I had did as you said it is you're [TS]

01:12:51   talking from the perspective of me and [TS]

01:12:53   you two guys in our Latino because when [TS]

01:12:57   when retail was the only way to buy [TS]

01:12:59   clothes that's when you and I were in [TS]

01:13:01   cyka school idol and and by the time we [TS]

01:13:05   got out of school that was when the [TS]

01:13:06   internet was a thing and I had the same [TS]

01:13:08   thought it's like well yeah back in the [TS]

01:13:10   days back in the days when you used to [TS]

01:13:12   have to buy all your clothes at the mall [TS]

01:13:13   you'd wear them school everybody worn to [TS]

01:13:16   school but of course there were [TS]

01:13:18   generations of adults ahead of us who [TS]

01:13:20   wore than [TS]

01:13:20   to other places yeah Venera it's it is [TS]

01:13:25   funny like it's always hard to uh or it [TS]

01:13:28   you have to be like super you're right [TS]

01:13:30   because the hesitation was the snap of [TS]

01:13:31   self-awareness like I'm probably over [TS]

01:13:33   personalizing this experience but but I [TS]

01:13:35   you do see this you know this sort of [TS]

01:13:38   like traditional brands that dominated [TS]

01:13:41   sort of malls and you know they're all [TS]

01:13:43   struggling you know mightily and you you [TS]

01:13:48   you see other things like there's this [TS]

01:13:49   uh other websites and services that are [TS]

01:13:52   much more inexpensive and it's much more [TS]

01:13:55   about having something unique and [TS]

01:13:57   indifferent uh as opposed to having the [TS]

01:14:00   same branded [TS]

01:14:02   you know teacher is everybody saying [TS]

01:14:04   that I think the New York Times just had [TS]

01:14:05   a story that the j-cruise [TS]

01:14:07   and financial distress the gap is too [TS]

01:14:11   there's a company know companies that [TS]

01:14:13   ankle and grumpy and Fitch like all of [TS]

01:14:15   them all of them are struggling right [TS]

01:14:17   and he would thought well Abercrombie [TS]

01:14:19   and Fitch was always a little bit more [TS]

01:14:23   niche you know because they had the you [TS]

01:14:26   know it smells weird and it purposefully [TS]

01:14:28   made an unwelcoming front it's actually [TS]

01:14:31   kind of an interesting retail strategy [TS]

01:14:32   where they they kind of made the front [TS]

01:14:34   of their stores sort of hard to get into [TS]

01:14:36   like I said I'm a big wide opening they [TS]

01:14:39   would just have a door and it was sort [TS]

01:14:41   of you know like they wanted you know [TS]

01:14:45   it's totally contrary to most retailers [TS]

01:14:49   but it was sort of like they only wanted [TS]

01:14:50   the right people to come in you know [TS]

01:14:52   young people who were shopping for [TS]

01:14:54   Abercrombie Coll clothes but anyway the [TS]

01:14:57   gap to me is more of the universal my [TS]

01:14:59   god everybody can go in the gap and find [TS]

01:15:00   something that they would consider [TS]

01:15:02   wearing too weird that they're having [TS]

01:15:05   fun and I'm not weird but it's just it's [TS]

01:15:07   it's obviously like a foundation of [TS]

01:15:10   American retail is crumbling if stores [TS]

01:15:13   like that aren't doing well [TS]

01:15:15   here's a question for you do you still [TS]

01:15:16   do you do you ever like when you need [TS]

01:15:19   like you feel like you need like some [TS]

01:15:21   new shirts do you go out and buy shirts [TS]

01:15:22   in a retail store and you buy everything [TS]

01:15:24   online I I look I usually every summer I [TS]

01:15:30   go and just buy a ton of stuff actually [TS]

01:15:34   we always it's a thing because my [TS]

01:15:36   brother lives in Minneapolis and so we [TS]

01:15:38   always go there and see my brother and [TS]

01:15:39   then one day we go to the Mall of [TS]

01:15:41   America and there's no sales tax on [TS]

01:15:43   clothing there and everything's there [TS]

01:15:45   and we just like spend one day buying [TS]

01:15:47   Early's I do try to buy all the clothes [TS]

01:15:49   I need for the entire year is what I do [TS]

01:15:52   need things otherwise yeah I go to [TS]

01:15:54   department stores here I don't I don't [TS]

01:15:56   buy I don't buy online but I mean [TS]

01:15:58   everything online here is mostly in [TS]

01:16:00   Chinese and whatnot and obviously a [TS]

01:16:02   little more difficult but my wife buys a [TS]

01:16:03   ton of stuff online she buys stuff [TS]

01:16:04   online all the time my wife finds [TS]

01:16:06   everything online every almost [TS]

01:16:07   everything I don't I can't recall the [TS]

01:16:10   last time she went out shopping for [TS]

01:16:12   clothes she just buys everything online [TS]

01:16:13   and unlike me she's not afraid to send [TS]

01:16:15   stuff back like that's my problem I I [TS]

01:16:18   don't I hate I just don't like packing [TS]

01:16:20   stuff up stand back it's irrational it's [TS]

01:16:24   completely irrational and it's not like [TS]

01:16:26   I've amassed all these like a big pile [TS]

01:16:30   of clothes that I don't like or that [TS]

01:16:31   don't fit that I just suck the you know [TS]

01:16:35   just eat the cost of it because I don't [TS]

01:16:37   send but it's why I don't buy stuff like [TS]

01:16:39   shirts like if I was going to buy like a [TS]

01:16:41   dress shirt I don't buy it online in [TS]

01:16:43   your last night I know I'm the same way [TS]

01:16:45   if I know that there's like a shirt from [TS]

01:16:49   Banana Republic that I already have one [TS]

01:16:51   and I know the exact size and I can [TS]

01:16:53   judge from the picture exactly what this [TS]

01:16:55   one looks like I would buy that online [TS]

01:16:56   but that's because I've actually tried [TS]

01:16:58   it on yeah I'm the same way I just [TS]

01:17:02   that's sort of like yes it's a hassle to [TS]

01:17:05   get in the car like go to the store or [TS]

01:17:07   however you get you to the store but for [TS]

01:17:10   me that that sort of hassle doesn't [TS]

01:17:12   register whereas having a bunch of boxes [TS]

01:17:14   and having to pack stuff up and put it [TS]

01:17:17   out and oh that's just like sounds like [TS]

01:17:19   absolute torture to me even if you know [TS]

01:17:21   even if you were to actually go through [TS]

01:17:22   and add up the number of minutes that it [TS]

01:17:23   takes it's less the the feeling of it is [TS]

01:17:26   is much worse so I'm now completely [TS]

01:17:28   view but for stuff like like underwear [TS]

01:17:31   and socks and stuff like that I don't [TS]

01:17:33   think I've bought anything like that in [TS]

01:17:34   a retail store in ten years I mean why [TS]

01:17:36   would you you know it's crazy I feel [TS]

01:17:39   like you feel like you need some new [TS]

01:17:40   underwear boom just like a couple of [TS]

01:17:43   items and it's at your house the Amazon [TS]

01:17:45   Apparel thing all is very interesting [TS]

01:17:47   because they're they've not announced [TS]

01:17:49   any numbers about it but there's sort of [TS]

01:17:51   hints that that it's actually doing much [TS]

01:17:53   better than you think and they're [TS]

01:17:54   growing really rapidly I suspect a lot [TS]

01:17:57   of it you know is probably things like [TS]

01:17:58   you just said you know basics and [TS]

01:18:01   whatnot but they're making for at a [TS]

01:18:04   minimum there for sure making massive [TS]

01:18:05   investments in it like just huge not [TS]

01:18:09   just the Amazon book although I think [TS]

01:18:10   that is interesting in that regard but [TS]

01:18:13   they have all kinds of interesting [TS]

01:18:14   projects going on they've watched [TS]

01:18:15   multiple brands uh you know that you [TS]

01:18:19   know that because they're brands for [TS]

01:18:22   they sort of categories own they own [TS]

01:18:24   Zappos yeah but this is this is all in [TS]

01:18:28   Amazon itself like I think it's not it's [TS]

01:18:30   not the Zappos thing was I think at they [TS]

01:18:34   bought them because they were doing well [TS]

01:18:36   in their own e-commerce sites and so [TS]

01:18:38   they want to bet they wanted to take [TS]

01:18:40   them out I mean they just closed down or [TS]

01:18:42   they're on the verge of closing down [TS]

01:18:43   what's the other when they bought [TS]

01:18:44   diapers diapers calm yeah same thing [TS]

01:18:47   they you know I think in the long run I [TS]

01:18:50   would I'd be surprised if Zappos remains [TS]

01:18:52   ongoing concern but I mean people like [TS]

01:18:54   it people go there so maybe they'll keep [TS]

01:18:55   those they'll keep it around but the [TS]

01:18:57   long run for sure is is all Amazon maybe [TS]

01:18:59   they want because in this is the other [TS]

01:19:01   thing oh this is the top of which talk [TS]

01:19:02   about I'm writable this yet but um the [TS]

01:19:04   Amazon Prime video be on Apple TV oh [TS]

01:19:08   yeah well that's here I'm making a note [TS]

01:19:10   we'll talk about that a minute yeah well [TS]

01:19:12   because I think Amazon is really trying [TS]

01:19:14   to own every aspect of your they they [TS]

01:19:17   want to be the facilitator of basically [TS]

01:19:19   everything in your life particularly [TS]

01:19:21   everything in the home and this is what [TS]

01:19:22   makes the whole echo line so brilliant [TS]

01:19:25   for Amazon it's I mean the opportunity [TS]

01:19:27   the reason the opportunity is there is [TS]

01:19:29   because the home is the one place you [TS]

01:19:31   don't necessarily have your phone with [TS]

01:19:32   you right if you're out and about you [TS]

01:19:33   always have your phone with you if [TS]

01:19:35   you're at phone if you're at home it's [TS]

01:19:36   plugged in and charging and whereas and [TS]

01:19:40   the other thing is if you aren't about [TS]

01:19:41   to just suddenly talk a Tran [TS]

01:19:43   it's getting perhaps more and more [TS]

01:19:45   socially acceptable but still a little [TS]

01:19:46   weird where it's at home to kind of [TS]

01:19:47   shout at Chartres and echo is is totally [TS]

01:19:50   fine but there's nothing like it's your [TS]

01:19:52   house you can do what you want but also [TS]

01:19:54   it fits with the sort of long-term [TS]

01:19:57   Amazon model of basically being the [TS]

01:20:02   infrastructure for your for your home [TS]

01:20:04   it's how the things your home get there [TS]

01:20:05   is how you resupply it's how you do [TS]

01:20:08   everything and so that's the focus on [TS]

01:20:09   clothes and echo and all sort of stuff [TS]

01:20:11   fits into that and having a uh having [TS]

01:20:16   another brand that's not Amazon I think [TS]

01:20:19   doesn't fit into that in the long run [TS]

01:20:20   especially with prime because they want [TS]

01:20:22   to be it's all Amazon it's all prime and [TS]

01:20:25   so I I will see how long that poses for [TS]

01:20:29   this world but it's I doubt it'll be a [TS]

01:20:31   focus of their sort of apparel efforts [TS]

01:20:32   oh I think that is doing well I just [TS]

01:20:35   maybe it's just continues to run as a [TS]

01:20:37   sort of independent you know I think you [TS]

01:20:40   could easily be it well maybe not maybe [TS]

01:20:42   they make you sign in with Amazon I [TS]

01:20:44   don't know but I thought I was going to [TS]

01:20:45   say that I think you can shop at Zappos [TS]

01:20:47   and not even know that they're a [TS]

01:20:48   subsidiary but yeah right and I think [TS]

01:20:52   that that's fine fram's I mean as long [TS]

01:20:55   as it's not someone else as long as they [TS]

01:20:58   own it here's the thing that it doesn't [TS]

01:21:00   surprise me but it's it it it still I [TS]

01:21:05   still found it striking was how much of [TS]

01:21:07   the reaction to the Amazon are the echo [TS]

01:21:09   look the one that's a camera for you [TS]

01:21:11   getting dressed was a sort of knee-jerk [TS]

01:21:14   you think I'm putting a camera connected [TS]

01:21:17   to the cloud in my dressing room you got [TS]

01:21:19   to be kidding me [TS]

01:21:20   um like a sort of knee-jerk I am NOT [TS]

01:21:23   putting a computerised camera that you [TS]

01:21:25   know uploads pictures to the web I don't [TS]

01:21:28   you know that you don't trust it or [TS]

01:21:29   whatever and I understand it and it you [TS]

01:21:32   know it certainly is it's a reasonable [TS]

01:21:36   concern that you'd want it to be private [TS]

01:21:39   and you want it to come from a company [TS]

01:21:40   that you trust and you know it common [TS]

01:21:43   sense that you'd think you know at least [TS]

01:21:44   think twice before you bought it and [TS]

01:21:46   installed it [TS]

01:21:48   but I think it's almost silly to take [TS]

01:21:51   the point that you don't think that [TS]

01:21:53   we're going to have cameras all over our [TS]

01:21:55   houses soon like it's clearly that's [TS]

01:21:58   where it's the only way to go yeah the [TS]

01:22:01   other thing too is I mean is a is a [TS]

01:22:04   camera really much worse than the echo [TS]

01:22:06   itself I mean the the entire category is [TS]

01:22:10   very but that's how we've acted that a [TS]

01:22:13   couple years ago they just dies down it [TS]

01:22:16   and I'm not saying that we should yeah I [TS]

01:22:21   think you know I think anybody who knows [TS]

01:22:22   me at all through the show or Darren [TS]

01:22:25   fireball would would guess that I'm it's [TS]

01:22:28   not like I rush headlong into new things [TS]

01:22:31   without thinking about them you know in [TS]

01:22:34   some ways on the lowercase C [TS]

01:22:35   conservative a lot of it you know and I [TS]

01:22:38   don't but you know I find out what I [TS]

01:22:41   like it and I stick with it so I'm not [TS]

01:22:44   drawn to new and shiny all the time [TS]

01:22:47   but I feel like everybody's a little bit [TS]

01:22:49   - in some ways it's good that there's a [TS]

01:22:51   lot of people who are whose first [TS]

01:22:53   concerns privacy as opposed to thinking [TS]

01:22:55   about the cool things you could do with [TS]

01:22:57   something like this but I'm reminded of [TS]

01:22:59   God it must probably like 99 or [TS]

01:23:02   something like that but way back you [TS]

01:23:04   know around the the millennium when like [TS]

01:23:07   Mac apps into Indy Mac apps first [TS]

01:23:10   started adding features where they would [TS]

01:23:12   phone home and just say like you [TS]

01:23:15   couldn't even upgrade it would like [TS]

01:23:17   sparkle the technologies where you can [TS]

01:23:19   hit a button and have you know you're [TS]

01:23:21   using version 3.1 version 3.2 is out [TS]

01:23:24   would you like to upgrade you just hit a [TS]

01:23:26   button and it downloads and upgrades and [TS]

01:23:27   quits and relaunches and there you go [TS]

01:23:29   you're running the new one but there [TS]

01:23:30   were apps that would just just put a [TS]

01:23:32   dialogue up and say hey there's a new [TS]

01:23:34   version do you want to go to the website [TS]

01:23:35   and download it and people freaked the [TS]

01:23:37   fuck out because they were like what the [TS]

01:23:39   hell you'd you know and and you know [TS]

01:23:41   sniffing the network traffic and you [TS]

01:23:43   know and and it's not like they were [TS]

01:23:45   revealing anything but the fact that the [TS]

01:23:47   app was phoning home with anything even [TS]

01:23:49   just check the version was too much for [TS]

01:23:52   people and there were people who would [TS]

01:23:54   be like I'm you know and a minute I'm [TS]

01:23:55   deleting this app I'm switching to a [TS]

01:23:57   competitor because there's no way that [TS]

01:23:59   any song [TS]

01:24:00   where mine is going to phone home to the [TS]

01:24:02   developer server even if it's just to [TS]

01:24:05   check the Virgin and I I don't want to [TS]

01:24:09   make fun of it too bad but I mean that's [TS]

01:24:11   you know there is there an app that you [TS]

01:24:15   use today that doesn't doesn't notify [TS]

01:24:17   you when there's a new version and I [TS]

01:24:19   feel like yeah we're going that way with [TS]

01:24:21   microphones and cameras we are with us I [TS]

01:24:24   think there's there's two sort of points [TS]

01:24:26   to make one is your broader point in [TS]

01:24:29   this is the most important point is this [TS]

01:24:31   is sort of inevitable like we're going [TS]

01:24:33   down this direction and the fact of the [TS]

01:24:35   matter is that most people just don't [TS]

01:24:38   care and and this applies to their [TS]

01:24:41   online privacy it applies to and this is [TS]

01:24:43   the big problem with with you know sort [TS]

01:24:45   of fighting for for privacy when it [TS]

01:24:49   comes technology products is that [TS]

01:24:51   unfortunately people don't care and [TS]

01:24:53   maybe at some point there will be some [TS]

01:24:55   scandal that's so bad that is so big [TS]

01:24:57   that it will actually become something [TS]

01:25:00   that people care about but to date [TS]

01:25:02   there's no evidence that that's going to [TS]

01:25:04   happen people value convenience they [TS]

01:25:06   just they just do and and related to [TS]

01:25:11   that though that it actually is really [TS]

01:25:14   concerning like the whole echo thing [TS]

01:25:15   like I have I have echoes over my house [TS]

01:25:17   but the actual like it's not really [TS]

01:25:21   clear [TS]

01:25:21   I mean amazon says that that they're [TS]

01:25:23   that they're secure and all this sort of [TS]

01:25:25   stuff but there's no really recourse for [TS]

01:25:28   people if they were used badly like it [TS]

01:25:32   really is just kind of trusting this [TS]

01:25:33   massive corporation is going to do the [TS]

01:25:36   right thing and uh and yeah obviously [TS]

01:25:40   people can and will track their network [TS]

01:25:43   and make sure that it's only sending [TS]

01:25:45   when you know when Alexis triggered [TS]

01:25:47   whatever might be and but then once it's [TS]

01:25:49   on the servers you don't really know [TS]

01:25:50   what's happening to it it really is a [TS]

01:25:51   massive massive problem unfortunately [TS]

01:25:53   it's a problem that absent some sort of [TS]

01:25:58   like popular will it's hard to see [TS]

01:26:00   anything being done about it right once [TS]

01:26:04   you once your yo dingus you know turn [TS]

01:26:08   out turn out the lights in the kitchen [TS]

01:26:09   command goes there you have no idea [TS]

01:26:11   where that audio [TS]

01:26:13   and how long and lasts and what they do [TS]

01:26:15   with it it's a bit as a black box so I'm [TS]

01:26:17   not discounting the privacy concerns but [TS]

01:26:19   I think and it's just like it's such a [TS]

01:26:21   small example but just like how apps [TS]

01:26:23   that can run a version check and notify [TS]

01:26:26   you of a new version it is a trade-off [TS]

01:26:29   of privacy where you know there is some [TS]

01:26:32   information of yours that is going to [TS]

01:26:34   the developer and they can you know [TS]

01:26:36   maybe you know a lot of times send other [TS]

01:26:39   things too like what model McIntosh [TS]

01:26:41   you're on and how much RAM you have or [TS]

01:26:42   something like that you're are trading [TS]

01:26:44   some privacy by allowing the software to [TS]

01:26:46   do it but in return you're getting [TS]

01:26:48   something of such convenience it is so [TS]

01:26:50   much that the days when you used to have [TS]

01:26:52   to manually you know like follow you [TS]

01:26:54   know there's to be a website like Mac [TS]

01:26:56   update where you'd like part of my [TS]

01:26:58   morning was go to Mac updating and what [TS]

01:27:01   was the other one version version [TS]

01:27:02   tracker you'd go to version tracker and [TS]

01:27:05   just see if any of the software I use [TS]

01:27:06   has a new version out and if so go go [TS]

01:27:09   and update it yeah I mean that was [TS]

01:27:11   actually part of my like daily routine [TS]

01:27:14   it seems like madness at this point and [TS]

01:27:17   you know there's so much of the [TS]

01:27:18   convenience of these AI assistants the [TS]

01:27:24   in were just just touching our toes in [TS]

01:27:26   it like I don't know I the more I think [TS]

01:27:28   about it and I know I've been talking [TS]

01:27:30   about it a lot more on the show like if [TS]

01:27:32   I were to go to a company like Apple or [TS]

01:27:35   Microsoft or something or n8 or Google [TS]

01:27:37   like what what would I want to be [TS]

01:27:39   working on I mean until now it almost [TS]

01:27:42   unquestionably what I would want to be [TS]

01:27:43   working on is you visual user interface [TS]

01:27:46   stuff for the GUI I think if I were [TS]

01:27:50   there now I think the AI stuff would be [TS]

01:27:53   what I would want to work on because I [TS]

01:27:55   feel like there's so much potential [TS]

01:27:56   there wasn't it's interesting about the [TS]

01:27:59   echo and with the echo show is I think [TS]

01:28:00   it's in some respects it was good for [TS]

01:28:03   Amazon to watch with just the speaker [TS]

01:28:05   because it sort of it was like the [TS]

01:28:07   original Mac launching without arrow [TS]

01:28:09   keys so you like you had to use the [TS]

01:28:12   mouse and like the foundation of it [TS]

01:28:14   being a voice interface was is baked in [TS]

01:28:18   very very deeply and so now the show [TS]

01:28:19   comes out and it has a screen but it's [TS]

01:28:22   not a touch screen it's still all [TS]

01:28:23   voice-controlled but it's a weird [TS]

01:28:26   because if [TS]

01:28:27   came out originally we say why there's a [TS]

01:28:28   screen it's not touchscreen this is so [TS]

01:28:29   weird in people like wouldn't really get [TS]

01:28:31   how to interact with it now it's like oh [TS]

01:28:33   wow it's so much so convenient is it you [TS]

01:28:35   it's an echo with a screen like the [TS]

01:28:38   whole framing in the way you think about [TS]

01:28:39   the product is actually totally [TS]

01:28:42   different because they it was a more [TS]

01:28:44   sort of limited product to start out [TS]

01:28:46   with I did not realize it was not a [TS]

01:28:47   touchscreen I find that shocking it's [TS]

01:28:50   not a touchscreen I know wow that's [TS]

01:28:53   shocking to me I find that crazy I think [TS]

01:28:55   that's a huge mistake I think there's [TS]

01:28:58   all sorts of things that you'd want to [TS]

01:28:59   do that you'd want to be able to touch [TS]

01:29:00   to confirm or something like that [TS]

01:29:02   wait ah yeah no that's I'm totally wrong [TS]

01:29:04   it is a touchscreen oh I thought I [TS]

01:29:09   thought maybe someone at Amazon had a [TS]

01:29:11   stroke or something yeah I know I did [TS]

01:29:14   that's funny I don't know I knew it's a [TS]

01:29:16   touchscreen and I guess I got stuck in [TS]

01:29:18   my head that was not a touchscreen the [TS]

01:29:19   the the the point I was been meaning to [TS]

01:29:22   make talk about it ordered altitude no [TS]

01:29:26   way man we're living on the point I try [TS]

01:29:29   to make though is the the primary means [TS]

01:29:31   of interacting with it is is voice I had [TS]

01:29:34   it been a touchscreen to start out with [TS]

01:29:35   as I'm trying to say it would have it [TS]

01:29:37   would have been much more limited than [TS]

01:29:39   it is because every developers all the [TS]

01:29:42   skills would have all been biased [TS]

01:29:44   towards touch now they're all biased [TS]

01:29:46   towards voice you can add on touch yeah [TS]

01:29:48   that was weird I just completely [TS]

01:29:49   hallucinate for like five minutes there [TS]

01:29:51   I just wrote about it yesterday I wrote [TS]

01:29:52   about of being a touchscreen I just [TS]

01:29:54   think I do see your point that I see [TS]

01:29:55   your point though that it is it is voice [TS]

01:29:58   first and it matters what's first you [TS]

01:30:00   know that the Mac being Mouse first [TS]

01:30:02   influenced the design that the GUI in a [TS]

01:30:05   way that if you could have treated it as [TS]

01:30:07   keyboard first it that's how the [TS]

01:30:09   software would have been written because [TS]

01:30:10   that's how all the other software and [TS]

01:30:12   all the other platforms was written [TS]

01:30:13   right exactly exactly [TS]

01:30:14   now is you could use an original [TS]

01:30:17   Macintosh like if you had two of the [TS]

01:30:21   original Macintosh side by side and one [TS]

01:30:23   of them only had the mouse hooked up and [TS]

01:30:24   the other one only had the keyboard [TS]

01:30:26   hooked up you could get more done on the [TS]

01:30:28   one that had the mouse hooked up and [TS]

01:30:29   there might have been things that you [TS]

01:30:31   couldn't even do on the keyboard one [TS]

01:30:32   yeah you couldn't even get to the menu [TS]

01:30:35   bar the only thing you could do in the [TS]

01:30:36   menu bar was have the keyboard shortcuts [TS]

01:30:38   memorized [TS]

01:30:39   right and I mean in the long run day [TS]

01:30:42   they brought them back and it's better [TS]

01:30:43   it's better to have all you know the [TS]

01:30:45   arrow he's there and right and whatnot [TS]

01:30:46   but but as far as like getting the [TS]

01:30:48   paradigm watch and and you know if had [TS]

01:30:52   it been a touchscreen to start it would [TS]

01:30:55   have you know it that's just kind of [TS]

01:30:57   like it it was just a phone but worse [TS]

01:31:00   because it's locked in went one spot in [TS]

01:31:01   the to really drive home that it is a [TS]

01:31:05   voice interface yeah I think they're [TS]

01:31:07   better off starting there but that said [TS]

01:31:09   the other thing though with the screen [TS]

01:31:12   is I think this this calling thing we [TS]

01:31:16   mentioned do talk board with the phone [TS]

01:31:17   and stuff like that but I think there [TS]

01:31:19   really is value to being able to just [TS]

01:31:23   initiate a conversation and probably the [TS]

01:31:25   most interesting thing here in here [TS]

01:31:26   Amazon totally sort of ripped off one of [TS]

01:31:28   their one of their companies like that [TS]

01:31:30   they have a venture fund for like [TS]

01:31:32   companies that enamel acts have built in [TS]

01:31:34   there's company that built a voice [TS]

01:31:36   communication device that has the echo [TS]

01:31:39   built in and it's basically Amazon just [TS]

01:31:41   completely Sherlock them it which is bad [TS]

01:31:44   enough when its software and it's [TS]

01:31:46   probably far more painful when it's [TS]

01:31:47   hardware but once you have trusted [TS]

01:31:50   people you can drop in which basically [TS]

01:31:52   means you can initiate a call without [TS]

01:31:55   there having to go through it like [TS]

01:31:56   actually answer it or do whatever you [TS]

01:31:57   you just be like sort of instant sort of [TS]

01:31:59   thing now if that sounds terrible a lot [TS]

01:32:00   situations but for me I'm in a different [TS]

01:32:03   a separate office from down the street [TS]

01:32:05   from from the house to be able just like [TS]

01:32:08   turn on bail to literally drop in its [TS]

01:32:11   someone if I was working from home to [TS]

01:32:13   have some be able to you know come in [TS]

01:32:14   the stop the door stick their head in [TS]

01:32:16   it's the same sort of idea obviously [TS]

01:32:18   you're not gonna use it all the time but [TS]

01:32:20   the possibility I think is is compelling [TS]

01:32:22   and interesting and fundamentally [TS]

01:32:24   different from FaceTime fundamentally [TS]

01:32:25   different from having to get your phone [TS]

01:32:26   and pull it out for the kids to call you [TS]

01:32:29   know grandma like something like this is [TS]

01:32:31   really is more convenient than than [TS]

01:32:34   having to use FaceTime mmm-hmm [TS]

01:32:37   I forget what it was in the context on [TS]

01:32:41   one of these things where I was like you [TS]

01:32:42   know but just how crude all of these [TS]

01:32:45   things whether whatever your favorite is [TS]

01:32:47   you know the Alexa platform or Siri or [TS]

01:32:49   Google or whatever it's so early days on [TS]

01:32:52   them that will we will look back and you [TS]

01:32:55   know this is like to the you know [TS]

01:32:57   personal computer like what the Apple to [TS]

01:32:59   was in 1981 you know its we're just at [TS]

01:33:03   the tip of the iceberg but that you can [TS]

01:33:05   see where we're going and I wrote that I [TS]

01:33:07   know really what I want is I want like a [TS]

01:33:09   c-3po but I thought about a couple days [TS]

01:33:12   later I realized I was totally wrong [TS]

01:33:13   that that's too much because the that's [TS]

01:33:15   a having the actual like robot who can [TS]

01:33:18   walk around is an entirely different set [TS]

01:33:19   of problems for these AI assistants what [TS]

01:33:22   I want is how from 2001 and I I wrote [TS]

01:33:25   that and I feel like every time you [TS]

01:33:26   bring up how everybody just goes [TS]

01:33:28   immediately to yeah but he you know [TS]

01:33:30   killed a bunch of astronauts and tried [TS]

01:33:31   to kill the other you know tried to kill [TS]

01:33:32   the last one too and had to be how'd it [TS]

01:33:34   be put right on alright put aside the [TS]

01:33:37   fact that he killed people [TS]

01:33:38   hahaha and he but he did kill people for [TS]

01:33:41   a very logical reason you know that I [TS]

01:33:43   don't want to spoil the movie but it's [TS]

01:33:44   you know and about it if you haven't [TS]

01:33:47   watched doesn't what do you watch [TS]

01:33:48   doesn't one but if you just if you think [TS]

01:33:51   about the stuff that how does in the [TS]

01:33:53   movie and how the astronauts interact [TS]

01:33:56   with them it's exactly where we're going [TS]

01:33:58   it is exactly the it is it it could not [TS]

01:34:04   be a better [TS]

01:34:04   everybody is racing towards how where [TS]

01:34:07   it's not just a voice in a speaker where [TS]

01:34:10   you can ask how you know what's what's [TS]

01:34:12   the square root of 256 or something like [TS]

01:34:15   that and get an answer it's that it's [TS]

01:34:18   the home automation integration where [TS]

01:34:21   you can say things like tell your dingus [TS]

01:34:24   to you know close all the blinds if you [TS]

01:34:27   have blinds that are hooked up to the [TS]

01:34:29   smart house or something like that or [TS]

01:34:30   change the color of your lights or [TS]

01:34:32   something like that like that's how they [TS]

01:34:34   ran the spaceship is they would tell how [TS]

01:34:36   to you know open the pod bay doors or [TS]

01:34:38   something like that like that's exactly [TS]

01:34:40   where we're going with all these things [TS]

01:34:41   and it's you know and you watch and one [TS]

01:34:45   of the things that you know if Kubrick [TS]

01:34:47   got so well in that movie is that they [TS]

01:34:49   you know from the perspective of [TS]

01:34:51   somebody watching it in 1968 it was like [TS]

01:34:53   whiz-bang futuristic stuff like wow you [TS]

01:34:55   can tell how to open the door and the [TS]

01:34:57   door opens but the astronauts acted like [TS]

01:34:59   it was the most normal thing in the [TS]

01:35:00   world because they were used to it [TS]

01:35:02   right [TS]

01:35:04   anyway I think everybody needs to watch [TS]

01:35:06   how and realize that that's exactly [TS]

01:35:08   where we're going any other thing too [TS]

01:35:09   about how was that and it would have [TS]

01:35:12   been so easy from 1968 perspective to [TS]

01:35:17   imagine how as a big refrigerator [TS]

01:35:20   computing device that's located in like [TS]

01:35:24   the bridge of the spaceship and did [TS]

01:35:27   think of that you know because that's [TS]

01:35:29   what computers were but how was [TS]

01:35:30   everywhere right they were just little [TS]

01:35:33   little red cameras all around the ship [TS]

01:35:35   he was a system that was running [TS]

01:35:37   throughout the whole ship right and [TS]

01:35:40   that's exactly the model of like I mean [TS]

01:35:43   in the Amazon tivity where you you you [TS]

01:35:46   could sprinkle these dots throughout [TS]

01:35:48   your house so that you know if you're [TS]

01:35:50   upstairs or downstairs you can access [TS]

01:35:52   the exact same system the other the [TS]

01:35:56   other I completely agree I think it is a [TS]

01:36:00   great example of of the what what [TS]

01:36:04   everyone is going for the other point I [TS]

01:36:06   would make I was just think about this [TS]

01:36:07   in terms of FaceTime is Google launched [TS]

01:36:10   a FaceTime competitor I came or what [TS]

01:36:13   it's called [TS]

01:36:14   um wowing or was it a low no hellos the [TS]

01:36:17   chat app we have weirdly they launched [TS]

01:36:20   two apps separately the Google duo yeah [TS]

01:36:23   I mean it's a problem the problem with [TS]

01:36:27   that is it's a separate app you have to [TS]

01:36:29   go download it etc and it's work beyond [TS]

01:36:33   you know why FaceTime is built-in [TS]

01:36:36   now obviously the advantage is you can [TS]

01:36:38   through I could go across platform then [TS]

01:36:40   you're competing against Skype those [TS]

01:36:41   which which has similar capability and [TS]

01:36:44   it's just it's just a hard is it the [TS]

01:36:46   Google's problem is always sort of the [TS]

01:36:48   go-to-market how they actually get their [TS]

01:36:49   products and technology into people's [TS]

01:36:51   hands and you know obviously Android is [TS]

01:36:55   one way to do that but then you have the [TS]

01:36:57   the other cross people on iPhones [TS]

01:36:59   download its anyhow it's hard my [TS]

01:37:01   impression of Google from the outside [TS]

01:37:03   and a load a load duo thing is a perfect [TS]

01:37:05   example of it is that they're their [TS]

01:37:07   company culture is so resistant to like [TS]

01:37:11   product people [TS]

01:37:13   you know like in and of itself there's [TS]

01:37:15   nothing on product like about a lo or [TS]

01:37:18   duo but there's clearly no overarching [TS]

01:37:20   strategy connecting the two or otherwise [TS]

01:37:22   they wouldn't exist as separate products [TS]

01:37:24   but there's nobody I don't feel as [TS]

01:37:25   anybody in position of authority to sort [TS]

01:37:27   of crack that whip and and guide it it's [TS]

01:37:31   you know it's just a thousand individual [TS]

01:37:34   cats wandering around Mountain View [TS]

01:37:36   doing whatever the hell they want yeah I [TS]

01:37:40   I don't know it is it is it doesn't [TS]

01:37:42   certainly does not seem ideal but the [TS]

01:37:44   difference here with the with Alexa and [TS]

01:37:46   this voice calling is because of this [TS]

01:37:50   show device like there is actually a [TS]

01:37:53   reason to download the app and to use it [TS]

01:37:57   because there is capability that is like [TS]

01:38:00   it's it's not just a ripoff it's [TS]

01:38:02   actually doing something new and unique [TS]

01:38:05   that is worth going to the trouble of [TS]

01:38:06   downloading the app for and so it's [TS]

01:38:08   actually I would argue much more of a [TS]

01:38:10   threat in the long run to FaceTime than [TS]

01:38:13   Google or Skype whatever even though [TS]

01:38:15   those have the advantage of being [TS]

01:38:16   cross-platform ello is not only [TS]

01:38:19   cross-platform but also has this third [TS]

01:38:22   dimension that makes you want to want to [TS]

01:38:25   use it hmm yeah I can sort of see that I [TS]

01:38:33   wonder how many people use a low I never [TS]

01:38:36   really hear about it anymore seems like [TS]

01:38:38   one of those things that you know an [TS]

01:38:41   example using it well I mean this is a [TS]

01:38:44   it's created for Google's benefit [TS]

01:38:46   because they need a chat app right yeah [TS]

01:38:48   like there's there's no market need for [TS]

01:38:51   it like there are plenty of chat apps [TS]

01:38:53   and this is the and you can't they added [TS]

01:38:58   some features like you can't just tack [TS]

01:39:00   on some features like you have to you [TS]

01:39:03   have to create a fund like the echo show [TS]

01:39:06   creates a fundamentally new use case for [TS]

01:39:08   video calling because it's like this [TS]

01:39:10   omnipresent object in a civil occasion [TS]

01:39:13   like you know in a place where it [TS]

01:39:15   actually makes sense yes it's kind of a [TS]

01:39:17   landline and blah blah blah but you know [TS]

01:39:18   you can't when you're wondering on your [TS]

01:39:20   house and your phone with you to be able [TS]

01:39:21   just shout out call whoever and you can [TS]

01:39:24   call other echoes you can it's not just [TS]

01:39:26   a show [TS]

01:39:27   so you [TS]

01:39:27   can call from echo to phone like there's [TS]

01:39:30   it's a fundamentally new use case [TS]

01:39:32   whereas these Google products had some [TS]

01:39:34   new features but the actual use case was [TS]

01:39:36   well served by plenty of other apps that [TS]

01:39:38   were there early and it's even more [TS]

01:39:40   difficult because it's a network [TS]

01:39:41   products and the single most important [TS]

01:39:44   feature the single most important [TS]

01:39:46   feature of any chat app is do your [TS]

01:39:48   friends and family use it like nothing [TS]

01:39:50   else matters beyond that yep because [TS]

01:39:52   it's it's like the old argument about [TS]

01:39:54   you know who bought the first fax [TS]

01:39:56   machine right who the hell are you [TS]

01:40:00   getting faxes from you just bought the [TS]

01:40:01   first one but all of a sudden if one guy [TS]

01:40:04   across town buys the second one all of a [TS]

01:40:06   sudden you've got something that's [TS]

01:40:07   valuable I mean it has more value than [TS]

01:40:10   it did when you each was the only fax [TS]

01:40:11   machine on the on the phone network and [TS]

01:40:14   this is what one thing was really [TS]

01:40:16   interesting was when the whole messaging [TS]

01:40:17   app like revolution would not it was [TS]

01:40:21   very brief was like two or three years [TS]

01:40:22   and what happened was it was really one [TS]

01:40:26   sort of country by country and in [TS]

01:40:28   countries which basically settle on one [TS]

01:40:30   service and that was it and it was over [TS]

01:40:32   like the fight was the it was done there [TS]

01:40:34   was no more there's no more of a fight [TS]

01:40:37   to be had and you had companies like we [TS]

01:40:39   Chad and line spending all kinds of [TS]

01:40:41   money trying to break into other [TS]

01:40:43   countries but once you're already [TS]

01:40:46   established absent absent some massive [TS]

01:40:50   leap in functionality like the reason [TS]

01:40:53   why messaging you know was such a big [TS]

01:40:54   deal is that in nearly every country the [TS]

01:40:56   world except for the US you have to pay [TS]

01:40:57   for SMS and I think this is why they I [TS]

01:41:00   still this is why the US thing is more [TS]

01:41:03   fragmented and is much further much more [TS]

01:41:06   behind as opposed to like message it at [TS]

01:41:08   penetration I mean and why I message is [TS]

01:41:10   probably the strongest the strongest [TS]

01:41:13   network because it's piggyback on SMS [TS]

01:41:15   but it's different it was different in [TS]

01:41:17   almost every other country in the world [TS]

01:41:17   we're not having to pay is a really [TS]

01:41:21   powerful way to drive adoption right uh [TS]

01:41:24   but once that was done once everyone is [TS]

01:41:27   already using a chat app that lets them [TS]

01:41:29   chat for free to get them to switch and [TS]

01:41:33   not just switch one person because you [TS]

01:41:35   have to switch everyone simultaneously [TS]

01:41:37   at the same time is basically these all [TS]

01:41:40   you know extreme [TS]

01:41:41   be difficult alright the lack of [TS]

01:41:44   foresight that the carrier's had by [TS]

01:41:46   trying to milk the SMS revenue at the [TS]

01:41:49   expense of well if we just give [TS]

01:41:52   everybody free at the very least they're [TS]

01:41:54   they're attached to the phone right then [TS]

01:41:58   a right number and we've got we've got [TS]

01:42:00   like a at least got a sticky platform [TS]

01:42:02   like in the way that I message has been [TS]

01:42:04   very very good Apple even though they've [TS]

01:42:06   never once charged a send one of apples [TS]

01:42:08   yeah right yes yeah I mean it's one of [TS]

01:42:12   apples but III probably - uh Natasha [TS]

01:42:15   before for sure I've complained about of [TS]

01:42:17   exponents but people often ask like or I [TS]

01:42:20   get emails whenever I write about [TS]

01:42:21   messaging messaging apps and people like [TS]

01:42:23   you know Oh Apple why is an iMessage [TS]

01:42:26   in the stock price well you know we ten [TS]

01:42:28   cent is worth X amount Facebook's worth [TS]

01:42:30   X amount Facebook Apple stock should be [TS]

01:42:32   higher because they have this this they [TS]

01:42:34   have iMessage and I know [TS]

01:42:36   iMessage is absolutely accounted for [TS]

01:42:38   it's accounted for in the phone like it [TS]

01:42:41   is a reason why Apple can maintain [TS]

01:42:44   charge such high margins on the phone [TS]

01:42:46   can maintain its share can be so [TS]

01:42:48   dominant in iMessage is it's not the [TS]

01:42:51   reason but it is a significant reason [TS]

01:42:53   why people on iPhones continue to buy [TS]

01:42:57   iPhones and so it's super valuable and [TS]

01:43:00   it is accounted for [TS]

01:43:02   it's just embedded in the iPhone yeah I [TS]

01:43:05   do think it might be discounted in some [TS]

01:43:07   ways but it's different than the [TS]

01:43:09   independent messaging platforms like [TS]

01:43:11   what do it make [TS]

01:43:12   yeah but if you broke it out if I messes [TS]

01:43:14   was actually available on Android and [TS]

01:43:16   and why is that's all that matters yes [TS]

01:43:19   maybe the iMessage category or whatever [TS]

01:43:24   division would be worth a lot but the [TS]

01:43:26   iPhone I think the cost that would be [TS]

01:43:30   borne by the iPhone would actually be [TS]

01:43:31   even greater than that [TS]

01:43:32   right alright anyway when there was that [TS]

01:43:35   rumor last year that Apple was going to [TS]

01:43:37   ship uh I you know I message for Android [TS]

01:43:40   I I do believe in fact I heard from [TS]

01:43:44   people that they're absolutely [TS]

01:43:46   positively were mocks that were floated [TS]

01:43:48   within Apple but that doesn't mean that [TS]

01:43:50   there was ever any serious intention to [TS]

01:43:52   do it it's almost more like well [TS]

01:43:54   why wouldn't there be why wouldn't they [TS]

01:43:55   at least you know sketch out how it [TS]

01:43:57   would work whether they have any [TS]

01:43:59   intention of doing it or not but it just [TS]

01:44:00   seemed to me so unlikely because it [TS]

01:44:03   seemed to me like whatever they would [TS]

01:44:05   get from it they would lose in the [TS]

01:44:08   stickiness that my message gives to the [TS]

01:44:10   phone in terms of yeah any kind of [TS]

01:44:12   temptation you have if you have tons and [TS]

01:44:15   tons of blue bubbles in your text with [TS]

01:44:17   your friends and family any temptation [TS]

01:44:19   you might have to switch to an Android [TS]

01:44:20   phone when it dawns on you that you lose [TS]

01:44:23   all those AI messages and everything [TS]

01:44:24   goes green it's like it maybe not right [TS]

01:44:28   and that's why they in that that's a [TS]

01:44:30   motivation for making AI messages more [TS]

01:44:33   and more have more and more features and [TS]

01:44:35   and things like that I mean I think [TS]

01:44:36   they've done a poor job of it but the [TS]

01:44:39   motivation is to differentiate it from [TS]

01:44:42   SMS even further so that yet to switch [TS]

01:44:45   something else doesn't you know feel it [TS]

01:44:48   feels like a terrible idea [TS]

01:44:49   yeah I mean I I you know I'm not a I'm [TS]

01:44:53   not a big fan of I don't like using [TS]

01:44:55   Android in part I'm not used to it but [TS]

01:44:57   there's there's little things that I [TS]

01:44:58   don't like um that that kinda off the [TS]

01:45:01   wall but without question the but I [TS]

01:45:04   still I have a pixel now I've use [TS]

01:45:08   Android phones occasionally but I [TS]

01:45:10   messages without question the most [TS]

01:45:13   straight-up frustrating aspect of using [TS]

01:45:16   a Android phone for any period of time [TS]

01:45:18   I don't like there's little stuff but I [TS]

01:45:20   need with us a flirt or you can use [TS]

01:45:21   student get over it you can't really get [TS]

01:45:24   past their not being our message right [TS]

01:45:25   but it's interesting to think of [TS]

01:45:27   iMessage as a wholly owned proprietary [TS]

01:45:29   to iOS and Mac OS to a lesser degree [TS]

01:45:33   messaging platform that Apple owns and [TS]

01:45:36   think about this and tell me if you [TS]

01:45:37   think this is interesting hypothetical [TS]

01:45:39   but what if when Instagram was on the [TS]

01:45:44   market [TS]

01:45:45   what if Apple had bought Instagram [TS]

01:45:46   instead of Facebook and kept it [TS]

01:45:49   io io s only is [TS]

01:45:53   interesting I think of I I think it kind [TS]

01:45:55   of is like in the way that people use [TS]

01:45:57   you know that it that the blue bubbles [TS]

01:46:00   are seen as having more status than [TS]

01:46:02   green bubbles like imagine if there were [TS]

01:46:04   tens of millions of people sharing [TS]

01:46:06   photos on Instagram you know and you do [TS]

01:46:10   only wait you couldn't even look at it [TS]

01:46:11   unless you had an iPhone it is really [TS]

01:46:14   interesting I mean because you're it's [TS]

01:46:16   valued destructive uh you know II [TS]

01:46:19   according like theoretically its value [TS]

01:46:21   destructive to by a sort of like [TS]

01:46:24   horizontal service and limit it to we're [TS]

01:46:27   platform in the context of the service [TS]

01:46:29   itself so like Instagram is worth what [TS]

01:46:31   you know however a huge amount of money [TS]

01:46:35   vastly more than Facebook paid for it [TS]

01:46:38   they paid 1 million dollars I don't know [TS]

01:46:39   what I pay 1 billion but I would I [TS]

01:46:41   wouldn't be surprised if they tried to [TS]

01:46:42   sell it now I would I mean I would think [TS]

01:46:44   like 50 billion I don't know I mean it's [TS]

01:46:46   all yes it's worth so much that it's [TS]

01:46:48   almost you know you you have to it's a [TS]

01:46:52   who whatever somebody would be willing [TS]

01:46:53   to pay for it it's kind of like a value [TS]

01:46:55   on it and and they'd be pay they be [TS]

01:46:57   willing to pay a lot but so it would not [TS]

01:47:00   be worth that it by itself but to your [TS]

01:47:04   point by the time [TS]

01:47:06   Android came out and which was like [TS]

01:47:07   three days before Facebook bought it the [TS]

01:47:11   momentum and sort of place that [TS]

01:47:13   Instagram had in sort of like popular [TS]

01:47:16   culture even with only having however [TS]

01:47:18   many users it had it was it was it was a [TS]

01:47:20   thing it was very much a thing just [TS]

01:47:22   being on iOS and yeah I would it still [TS]

01:47:25   be a thing I think that's sort of the [TS]

01:47:27   longer-run question like would it be [TS]

01:47:28   able to maintain that or would a [TS]

01:47:30   cross-platform service really you know [TS]

01:47:34   whether I mean snapchat would probably [TS]

01:47:37   be much better shape today if if Apple [TS]

01:47:39   had done that uh being a something [TS]

01:47:43   that's more broadly accessible and um [TS]

01:47:46   it's a really missing it's a religion [TS]

01:47:48   point I Oh clearly Facebook would have [TS]

01:47:51   been would have if Apple had bought [TS]

01:47:53   Instagram Facebook would have done their [TS]

01:47:55   best given we see what they do with like [TS]

01:47:57   snapchat they would have tried seven [TS]

01:47:59   different ways to copy Instagram you [TS]

01:48:01   know whether it was with a their own new [TS]

01:48:03   app or whether putting it in your [TS]

01:48:05   regular Facebook feed you know just like [TS]

01:48:06   they've copied snapchats stories gimmick [TS]

01:48:09   like seven different ways so maybe it [TS]

01:48:12   would have been Facebook somehow would [TS]

01:48:13   have done it but I still think there's [TS]

01:48:15   something interesting there and the idea [TS]

01:48:16   would be that it would wouldn't [TS]

01:48:17   necessarily like Instagram itself as an [TS]

01:48:20   Apple subsidiary wouldn't be worth [TS]

01:48:21   anywhere near what Instagram is worth [TS]

01:48:23   today it's a Facebook subsidiary with [TS]

01:48:25   all the so many more users but it might [TS]

01:48:29   but with the iPhone be worth that one [TS]

01:48:31   buy the iPhone might be worth more [TS]

01:48:32   because people would be terrified of [TS]

01:48:34   getting a different phone because they [TS]

01:48:36   wouldn't be able to share their stuff to [TS]

01:48:37   Instagram anymore and they've got 4,000 [TS]

01:48:40   followers or whatever on Instagram and [TS]

01:48:42   the only way they can keep that going is [TS]

01:48:44   if they keep buying iPhones yeah and I [TS]

01:48:47   can't help but think that that was I've [TS]

01:48:48   never heard this from anybody so this is [TS]

01:48:51   just complete speculation on my part no [TS]

01:48:53   not single birdy has ever said anything [TS]

01:48:55   to me but I thought it was so [TS]

01:48:56   conspicuous I thought it right at the [TS]

01:48:57   time that Instagram for Android shipped [TS]

01:49:00   coincident with their acquisition from [TS]

01:49:03   Facebook like it was only after the [TS]

01:49:05   Facebook acquisition was made official I [TS]

01:49:08   forget if like all the eyes were dotted [TS]

01:49:10   ya know it was like the same week yeah [TS]

01:49:13   you know I cannot help but think that [TS]

01:49:16   Apple might have at least been at the [TS]

01:49:17   table and you know the fact you know [TS]

01:49:20   would be a lot easier to never have had [TS]

01:49:22   an Android version than to sell the [TS]

01:49:24   Apple right exactly exactly Android [TS]

01:49:26   version and I think the only part of it [TS]

01:49:28   that was even interesting to Apple was [TS]

01:49:30   that it was iOS exclusive yeah and [TS]

01:49:33   famously without without question yeah [TS]

01:49:35   Instagram as it is today is not labeled [TS]

01:49:37   it isn't wouldn't know he's not [TS]

01:49:39   available Apple and you're in the end [TS]

01:49:40   right that you're not any cutting at all [TS]

01:49:42   right that's the funny thing is that [TS]

01:49:43   Instagram is more valuable today but it [TS]

01:49:47   wouldn't be more valuable to Apple it [TS]

01:49:48   was only valuable to Apple as an iOS [TS]

01:49:50   exclusive and it emphasizes their [TS]

01:49:52   product marketing that that camera is [TS]

01:49:54   better on the iPhone uh that you know it [TS]

01:49:57   it kind of fit in yeah you know mr. [TS]

01:50:00   Schiller shouldered deleted his [TS]

01:50:01   Instagram account right after that the [TS]

01:50:04   Android version the more you mention it [TS]

01:50:06   yeah I think they probably should have [TS]

01:50:08   done it again [TS]

01:50:11   Instagram would not be worth what it is [TS]

01:50:12   today as a part of Apple and it's very [TS]

01:50:15   possible to your point another network [TS]

01:50:17   will come along against and supplant it [TS]

01:50:18   but would it be [TS]

01:50:20   worth more than 1 billion dollars of [TS]

01:50:22   value to the iPhone franchise without [TS]

01:50:24   question I bet you don't have to sell [TS]

01:50:27   that many marginal iPhones to to make up [TS]

01:50:30   a billion dollars I mean my end yeah [TS]

01:50:32   it's it's a really interesting point and [TS]

01:50:35   even now today I may forget what year [TS]

01:50:37   that was when that happened but even now [TS]

01:50:39   today it's it plays even more into the [TS]

01:50:43   camera emphasis of Apple's iPhone [TS]

01:50:46   product marketing yeah absolutely [TS]

01:50:48   yep I agree I agree is amiss I need the [TS]

01:50:51   real the real shame is any script sold [TS]

01:50:53   at all I mean the I feel like things [TS]

01:50:55   would be so much healthier if I mean [TS]

01:50:58   Instagram is really the purchase that [TS]

01:51:00   cemented Facebook's dominance yep [TS]

01:51:03   because it's its Instagram that that is [TS]

01:51:06   it's different enough from Facebook in a [TS]

01:51:09   way that it really the market need [TS]

01:51:12   market niche that it's filling is uh is [TS]

01:51:16   is really it was really a big a big hole [TS]

01:51:19   for Facebook and it'd be nice was an [TS]

01:51:23   independent company it's yeah yeah and [TS]

01:51:25   it's it a terrific complement to [TS]

01:51:28   Facebook and it's a better Twitter than [TS]

01:51:30   Twitter in some ways or at least a [TS]

01:51:32   Twitter it's a Twitter that knows and I [TS]

01:51:34   love Twitter I do love Twitter and an [TS]

01:51:36   Instagram is of course completely [TS]

01:51:38   pointless and useless for something like [TS]

01:51:40   news like as we speak today 24 hours ago [TS]

01:51:43   we just found out that the Trump fired [TS]

01:51:46   the head of the FBI it was a I'm sure I [TS]

01:51:50   don't know if what you did if you were [TS]

01:51:52   up maybe you were sleeping at the time [TS]

01:51:53   but as soon as you found out about it I [TS]

01:51:54   bet you went to Twitter right right I [TS]

01:51:57   mean you know politics over there side [TS]

01:51:59   when I found out that Trump fired head [TS]

01:52:01   of the FBI is investigating his own [TS]

01:52:04   campaigns ties to Russia I went to [TS]

01:52:06   Twitter to see you know what were the [TS]

01:52:09   news articles that were coming out what [TS]

01:52:10   were people who I was opinion I value on [TS]

01:52:13   such subjects Instagram has nothing to [TS]

01:52:15   do with something like that you don't go [TS]

01:52:16   to Instagram for breaking news but the [TS]

01:52:18   problem that twitter has that's part [TS]

01:52:19   that's that's part of history badly [TS]

01:52:20   right right and that's part why people [TS]

01:52:22   you know it it but it's Twitter like in [TS]

01:52:27   that it's the same basic model that [TS]

01:52:29   Twitter pioneered which is you [TS]

01:52:33   you it's very simple it's it's brilliant [TS]

01:52:36   it seems so obvious but nobody did it [TS]

01:52:37   before Twitter which is you have a feed [TS]

01:52:40   of the things you post and you pick [TS]

01:52:42   people whose feeds you want to see and [TS]

01:52:45   then when you look at the app you see [TS]

01:52:47   all of the posts from the people who [TS]

01:52:49   you've chosen to follow it you know in [TS]

01:52:52   one stream and you scroll down and then [TS]

01:52:55   when you get bored you hit one that [TS]

01:52:56   you've already seen before you stop it's [TS]

01:52:59   like they took that basic model and made [TS]

01:53:01   something that was very self-assured and [TS]

01:53:03   knew exactly what it was for and what [TS]

01:53:06   people would do with it like people [TS]

01:53:08   don't look at Instagram and say I don't [TS]

01:53:09   know what to do with this like they'd [TS]

01:53:10   like a lot of normal people do when they [TS]

01:53:12   see Twitter they're like I don't know [TS]

01:53:14   what I'm looking at right and the end [TS]

01:53:16   photos are are such a and this is [TS]

01:53:19   something that Facebook knew when they [TS]

01:53:21   bought Instagram I mean Facebook was [TS]

01:53:23   built on photos photo sharing but to [TS]

01:53:26   take to be break that down just to a [TS]

01:53:29   stream of individual photos and not only [TS]

01:53:31   that is it super understandable super [TS]

01:53:32   approachable and something people like [TS]

01:53:34   but it went itself very obviously and [TS]

01:53:36   easily to advertising and in a way that [TS]

01:53:38   Twitter you know it's advertising on [TS]

01:53:41   Twitter is is hard like yes you can have [TS]

01:53:44   the promoted tweet thing but it's so [TS]

01:53:46   like you're strolling past it so quickly [TS]

01:53:48   and it's hard to really sort of get [TS]

01:53:50   immersed in it and it's part you know to [TS]

01:53:52   start to add more media in part because [TS]

01:53:54   it makes a better canvas for advertising [TS]

01:53:56   but just the way you use Twitter is not [TS]

01:53:58   really amenable to it and Twitter's had [TS]

01:53:59   zero luck getting any sort of direct [TS]

01:54:01   response where you see something and you [TS]

01:54:03   take an action that's just not how [TS]

01:54:04   people think and operate when they're on [TS]

01:54:07   Twitter where's Instagram you know [TS]

01:54:09   you've had it there is successes you [TS]

01:54:11   people like put products like people [TS]

01:54:13   mall brands on Instagram because they [TS]

01:54:14   know they like looking at products and [TS]

01:54:16   sometimes they will look at a product I [TS]

01:54:17   want to buy the product and it's another [TS]

01:54:19   baking that possible no I've seen [TS]

01:54:21   product I you know just watch stuff I [TS]

01:54:24   follow a lot of watch accounts on [TS]

01:54:26   Instagram like and for obvious reasons [TS]

01:54:28   the watch stuff is way to me at least [TS]

01:54:31   it's way more interesting on Instagram [TS]

01:54:33   than it is on Twitter because it's all [TS]

01:54:34   visual it's like hey you know take a [TS]

01:54:36   look at this picture of a watch it's if [TS]

01:54:38   you're interested in watches that's you [TS]

01:54:40   know interesting whereas here's some [TS]

01:54:42   text about a watches not really [TS]

01:54:44   interesting I mean but yeah there's [TS]

01:54:46   product shots they have [TS]

01:54:47   thousands and thousands of likes it's [TS]

01:54:49   you know thousands you know it's people [TS]

01:54:52   definitely you know I for an advertiser [TS]

01:54:55   to get likes under ad that's that's a [TS]

01:54:58   huge deal [TS]

01:54:59   like I don't all right like in the rest [TS]

01:55:02   of the web you know they're trying to [TS]

01:55:05   get people from blocking off their heads [TS]

01:55:07   and whereas on Instagram they're looking [TS]

01:55:09   for them and yeah I know is it no it's [TS]

01:55:12   it's like no one is yeah exactly no one [TS]

01:55:14   is I mean some people do complain about [TS]

01:55:17   yeah you know as the getting the ads in [TS]

01:55:21   front of people do plan Instagram to [TS]

01:55:24   two-degree but um same thing with the [TS]

01:55:26   sort of Facebook you know sort of feed [TS]

01:55:29   there's the like what's so brilliant [TS]

01:55:32   about these mobile advertisements and [TS]

01:55:34   why they're actually it turned out never [TS]

01:55:36   ever was how about Oh mobiles were so [TS]

01:55:38   much less prioritized in desktops better [TS]

01:55:39   Baba well it turned out actually no [TS]

01:55:40   mobile was way more valuable you said to [TS]

01:55:42   figure out the format right and what's [TS]

01:55:44   so brilliant about the format of both [TS]

01:55:45   Instagram and Facebook is you [TS]

01:55:47   simultaneously have a much more of a [TS]

01:55:52   grip on a user's attention like an ad on [TS]

01:55:54   Facebook or Instagram literally takes [TS]

01:55:57   over the entire screen of your device [TS]

01:55:58   alright but it's a very but because it's [TS]

01:56:02   embedded in this feed that you're going [TS]

01:56:03   through it doesn't feel nearly as [TS]

01:56:05   obtrusive as I'm looking at this article [TS]

01:56:07   I'm looking at a web page on the on the [TS]

01:56:09   browser right now on the back and [TS]

01:56:11   there's this big banner ad on the side [TS]

01:56:13   it's so annoying and it and despite the [TS]

01:56:15   fact if you actually think about it it's [TS]

01:56:17   not actually obstructing me at all right [TS]

01:56:19   but it feels weird how that via the feed [TS]

01:56:24   is such a perfect advertising vehicle [TS]

01:56:26   right it it's as you know as you know as [TS]

01:56:28   the inventor right it just makes [TS]

01:56:34   intuitive sense to me in that it always [TS]

01:56:39   had it always did from the moment the [TS]

01:56:41   iPhone came out that of course it's [TS]

01:56:42   eventually is going to be a terrific [TS]

01:56:44   place to do advertising in some way like [TS]

01:56:47   the hard part is only figuring out the [TS]

01:56:48   right way but to discount it as less [TS]

01:56:51   valuable ad you have to be a moron [TS]

01:56:53   because it's obviously the device you [TS]

01:56:56   only have to spend two minutes in 2007 [TS]

01:57:00   you know looking at an iPhone original [TS]

01:57:03   iPhone owners relationship with their [TS]

01:57:05   phone and see that it's by far and away [TS]

01:57:07   than the most emotionally attached [TS]

01:57:09   computing device that they own it's [TS]

01:57:11   right it's intimate and of course that's [TS]

01:57:14   valuable it's super value and it's with [TS]

01:57:16   them all the time [TS]

01:57:16   if Crockett that not be more valuable [TS]

01:57:18   you know it's again not I'm not saying [TS]

01:57:20   it was obvious at all that something [TS]

01:57:22   like inst you know Instagram I'd be a [TS]

01:57:24   very wealthy man if I had come up with [TS]

01:57:26   the idea for Instagram in 2007 but it I [TS]

01:57:30   just knew though that there was some [TS]

01:57:31   kind of opportunity there right right [TS]

01:57:34   crazed actually a discounted just [TS]

01:57:36   because you couldn't show the same type [TS]

01:57:37   of ads that you could show on that on a [TS]

01:57:39   on the desktop and write it yet let me [TS]

01:57:43   take a break let me take a break here [TS]

01:57:44   and think it our next sponsor unless you [TS]

01:57:45   had a good point to make you have a good [TS]

01:57:46   point [TS]

01:57:47   now I now I know no good point point all [TS]

01:57:49   right our third and final sponsor of the [TS]

01:57:53   episode is our good friends at [TS]

01:57:56   Squarespace look next time you have to [TS]

01:57:59   do something new you got a new company [TS]

01:58:01   you're starting you want to start a [TS]

01:58:02   podcast your own podcast you want to [TS]

01:58:04   start a blog your and it's it's may may [TS]

01:58:09   be your student your graduating you want [TS]

01:58:10   to put together a portfolio site of your [TS]

01:58:12   work do it in Squarespace make your next [TS]

01:58:15   move on Squarespace you want to make a [TS]

01:58:17   website do it on Squarespace I'm telling [TS]

01:58:19   you do it first by the time you spend [TS]

01:58:22   half an hour trying it in Squarespace [TS]

01:58:24   you'll be halfway to have in your thing [TS]

01:58:26   done whereas if you did it by hand you'd [TS]

01:58:29   still be you know learning PHP or [TS]

01:58:33   something like that I'm telling you you [TS]

01:58:35   can make your own website with [TS]

01:58:36   Squarespace with no coding experience no [TS]

01:58:38   programming experience no system [TS]

01:58:40   administrator experience all of that [TS]

01:58:42   stuff is all taken care of it's an [TS]

01:58:44   all-in-one platform this is the thing I [TS]

01:58:46   think people don't know don't get about [TS]

01:58:47   Squarespace is that everything from [TS]

01:58:51   registering your domain name to keeping [TS]

01:58:52   the server running to collecting the [TS]

01:58:54   stats that show you which pages on site [TS]

01:58:57   people are going to and and stuff like [TS]

01:58:58   that it's all there it's all in the [TS]

01:59:00   platform so you don't have to do well [TS]

01:59:02   you do this and then you have it's just [TS]

01:59:04   hosted but then if you want to get stats [TS]

01:59:06   you've got to install some other [TS]

01:59:07   analytics package or something like that [TS]

01:59:09   none of it all of it is right there in [TS]

01:59:11   Squarespace platform [TS]

01:59:12   and the thing I always keep emphasizing [TS]

01:59:14   is they have all these templates to [TS]

01:59:16   choose from but they have so many [TS]

01:59:17   templates and the templates are so [TS]

01:59:19   easily configured with your own graphics [TS]

01:59:22   or fonts or something like that [TS]

01:59:23   that your site doesn't look like a [TS]

01:59:25   cookie cutter Squarespace site I [TS]

01:59:27   guarantee you you you visit Squarespace [TS]

01:59:29   sites every day and don't even realize [TS]

01:59:30   they're Squarespace sites because they [TS]

01:59:33   look original to the brands of the [TS]

01:59:35   company whose site it is so next time [TS]

01:59:36   you need a new website go to Squarespace [TS]

01:59:39   calm and slash talk show and use the [TS]

01:59:44   code Gruber my last name when you [TS]

01:59:46   actually fork over the dough and you'll [TS]

01:59:48   save 10% off your first order my thanks [TS]

01:59:50   to Squarespace longtime sponsor the show [TS]

01:59:53   good friends all right we got to get to [TS]

01:59:57   China right this all right [TS]

01:59:57   China right this all right [TS]

02:00:00   no but you're on the show yeah III this [TS]

02:00:03   is my busy season um by busy season I [TS]

02:00:06   mean it's the NBA playoffs so I haven't [TS]

02:00:09   had a chance to listen to the your [TS]

02:00:12   episode last week where I think you [TS]

02:00:15   discuss this by a little bit but it was [TS]

02:00:17   it's what I wrote about was more you [TS]

02:00:20   know if you read my article than here [TS]

02:00:21   you know where I stand [TS]

02:00:23   got it yeah I hope I represented you [TS]

02:00:26   Farrah do you feel like I represented [TS]

02:00:27   you fairly uh yeah I think so I mean I I [TS]

02:00:30   still think I think the part where you [TS]

02:00:32   disagree with me you're wrong which is [TS]

02:00:34   fine because we can we can talk about it [TS]

02:00:36   it should we should because I forgot [TS]

02:00:38   jesting I would say that more like I got [TS]

02:00:42   more hey I usually agree with you but I [TS]

02:00:44   think you're wrong on this I got more of [TS]

02:00:46   that for that that stance then anything [TS]

02:00:49   that in recent memory [TS]

02:00:50   which doesn't make me dig in my heels it [TS]

02:00:53   makes me think there's a good chance I'm [TS]

02:00:54   wrong about this yeah and this is one of [TS]

02:00:57   the great things about writing for the [TS]

02:00:59   web generally that like it like you've [TS]

02:01:02   made this comment before and I've stolen [TS]

02:01:03   it because I think it's such a great way [TS]

02:01:05   to put it the goal I love being right [TS]

02:01:08   but the way you're right is by fixing [TS]

02:01:12   the parts when you're wrong right and [TS]

02:01:14   having tons of people giving you [TS]

02:01:15   feedback and is a great way to get right [TS]

02:01:18   much more quickly than was ever possible [TS]

02:01:20   before right I like to be right all the [TS]

02:01:22   time and a way to be right all the time [TS]

02:01:24   is to catch the times that you're wrong [TS]

02:01:26   and correct them and right is it like [TS]

02:01:29   that I totally stole that right like [TS]

02:01:30   from you but I think it's a great way to [TS]

02:01:32   think about right and too many people [TS]

02:01:33   who want to be right all the time [TS]

02:01:34   it's and let's say they're right most of [TS]

02:01:37   the time it they're defensive about the [TS]

02:01:42   times that are wrong and when they are [TS]

02:01:43   wrong they you see it all the time you [TS]

02:01:45   see it in politics you see it in tech [TS]

02:01:47   you see that anything you follow but [TS]

02:01:48   when they're wrong you can see it that [TS]

02:01:50   they're digging in and trying to spin a [TS]

02:01:53   way to make it that they're right [TS]

02:01:55   whereas the racist thing in the world to [TS]

02:01:57   do is to just publish an update and say [TS]

02:01:59   you know what totally wrong yeah I mean [TS]

02:02:02   I write these every now and then like I [TS]

02:02:04   actually I like it in some respects when [TS]

02:02:07   something comes along that I was wrong [TS]

02:02:09   about and sometimes I'm factually wrong [TS]

02:02:11   or I get and that's fine [TS]

02:02:13   easy correction I just screwed something [TS]

02:02:14   up or whatever I'm like saying that [TS]

02:02:16   there's no touchscreen sometimes like I [TS]

02:02:19   predictions are wrong or my analysis is [TS]

02:02:21   wrong and in some respects I actually [TS]

02:02:23   value that because as soon as that [TS]

02:02:25   happens I will write a big post that I [TS]

02:02:28   will say what I got wrong I'll say why I [TS]

02:02:30   got wrong my thought process that went [TS]

02:02:32   into it what part of my thought process [TS]

02:02:34   in retrospect was incorrect and then the [TS]

02:02:37   value that that accrues is not just that [TS]

02:02:40   now I'm right but also you know it kind [TS]

02:02:43   of gives you capital to say other stuff [TS]

02:02:46   in the future because people will take [TS]

02:02:47   you more seriously because even if you [TS]

02:02:50   what you're saying is wrong like they [TS]

02:02:53   they will know that you're you know you [TS]

02:02:55   won you will correct yourself in the [TS]

02:02:56   future but - there's a process that goes [TS]

02:03:01   into it that it's not just sort of like [TS]

02:03:03   shooting from the hip sort of thing so [TS]

02:03:04   for me I actually think it's not just a [TS]

02:03:07   benefit of the web I don't need an [TS]

02:03:09   editor so although that's that is from a [TS]

02:03:11   very sort of small perspective the case [TS]

02:03:14   I think from a big perspective it's is [TS]

02:03:16   one of the wonderful things about [TS]

02:03:17   writing for a large audience yeah yeah [TS]

02:03:21   and it's sort of I could have chose to [TS]

02:03:23   you know like being happy what every [TS]

02:03:24   once in a while when you you know after [TS]

02:03:26   correct a pretty big error or just you [TS]

02:03:29   know like oh I was convinced that it was [TS]

02:03:31   all doors should open from the left but [TS]

02:03:34   dude that's idiotic sometimes the door [TS]

02:03:36   should open from the right he publishes [TS]

02:03:39   you know you just say it like that it's [TS]

02:03:41   sort of proof that the system works like [TS]

02:03:43   I you know a way of you know I like to [TS]

02:03:45   think that when I'm wrong I will [TS]

02:03:47   recognize it instantly and you know [TS]

02:03:51   swallow my pride and do what I can to to [TS]

02:03:53   fix it as unambiguously as possible but [TS]

02:03:59   if I don't do it for a while how do I [TS]

02:04:00   know that I'm not even though I think [TS]

02:04:02   that that's what I'm willing to do how [TS]

02:04:03   do I know that I'm not just going into [TS]

02:04:05   denial every time I'm wrong ya know [TS]

02:04:08   exactly and this is something that I [TS]

02:04:09   think about a ton like this idea of like [TS]

02:04:11   confirmation bias where you're you [TS]

02:04:14   always look for evidence that supports [TS]

02:04:15   your position and and what it takes like [TS]

02:04:19   a lot of like discipline to actively [TS]

02:04:21   look for reasons why you might be wrong [TS]

02:04:23   which I absolutely try to do [TS]

02:04:26   but then also just having like I said [TS]

02:04:28   the the fact you get instant feedback [TS]

02:04:30   and people pushing back on you like [TS]

02:04:32   forces you to to think about that I mean [TS]

02:04:35   it's wonder yeah so any I'll is just [TS]

02:04:37   stay sort of meta sort of commentary the [TS]

02:04:41   oh so go ahead well I I think a good [TS]

02:04:43   example of that I think probably the the [TS]

02:04:45   review that I'm as a product review that [TS]

02:04:48   I probably did the worst job on was the [TS]

02:04:50   original Apple watch and that's why I [TS]

02:04:51   like a month later I wrote like a second [TS]

02:04:53   one was more or less the same basic idea [TS]

02:04:55   of here's this new product from Apple [TS]

02:04:58   what is it what do I think about it like [TS]

02:05:00   the first one was just it I don't know [TS]

02:05:04   it wasn't awful but it wasn't like [TS]

02:05:05   poorly written but just I just never sat [TS]

02:05:08   right with me and rereading it a month [TS]

02:05:09   later I was like just I did I don't know [TS]

02:05:11   it felt like a swing on a mess and I [TS]

02:05:14   feel like part of the problem was that [TS]

02:05:16   it was it was too much of a what's good [TS]

02:05:20   about this product review whereas it [TS]

02:05:22   should have you know it wasn't it was [TS]

02:05:24   written from that perspective I don't [TS]

02:05:26   know if that's quite confirmation bias [TS]

02:05:28   but it's it Apple wouldn't do this if [TS]

02:05:31   they didn't have a good reason to do it [TS]

02:05:32   so what are those good reasons whereas [TS]

02:05:34   think the story was more this is a you [TS]

02:05:37   know especially that 1.0 watch was this [TS]

02:05:39   is a product that doesn't really know [TS]

02:05:40   what it's good for [TS]

02:05:41   yeah yeah no I mean it's funny I I was [TS]

02:05:45   all over the place on the watch my [TS]

02:05:47   original take was that which is like [TS]

02:05:49   this is a product that is lacking vision [TS]

02:05:51   like it doesn't know what it is [TS]

02:05:52   I think that's get more accurate [TS]

02:05:54   writings I was then I went back and I in [TS]

02:05:57   I actually fell into the like I had too [TS]

02:05:59   much faith in Apple like dunno really [TS]

02:06:01   are they really just watching this [TS]

02:06:02   beautiful device and then that's really [TS]

02:06:04   the point and and so I actually went [TS]

02:06:07   back and changed my mind and that this [TS]

02:06:08   very notorious contentious episode of [TS]

02:06:10   exponent were being James arguing about [TS]

02:06:11   it and then I and then eventually I [TS]

02:06:14   didn't back my in this case my fix was [TS]

02:06:18   actually wrong and worse and so I had to [TS]

02:06:20   go back into like you know actually I [TS]

02:06:22   had it right the first time and now it's [TS]

02:06:24   a I hate that I hate that that happened [TS]

02:06:26   especially because I actually had it [TS]

02:06:28   right the first time but yeah I mean [TS]

02:06:31   whatever it happens if you're giving [TS]

02:06:33   your if you're giving your analysis or [TS]

02:06:36   opinion four days a week you're going to [TS]

02:06:38   get it wrong which is fine as long as [TS]

02:06:40   you as long as you correct it so you you [TS]

02:06:41   run in as we've spoken about this that [TS]

02:06:45   we you don't right Stratego e is not [TS]

02:06:48   it's the tech in general I mean and if [TS]

02:06:51   you tend to fight against er tech reef [TS]

02:06:53   so to take your attacker ease detectors [TS]

02:06:56   a daiquiri tech about tech I honestly [TS]

02:06:59   don't even do it to brass you I honestly [TS]

02:07:01   have done it I though I make it a [TS]

02:07:03   certain amount the mister I pronounce it [TS]

02:07:05   differently at the beginning so I made [TS]

02:07:07   it even worse is already a bad name and [TS]

02:07:09   I made it worse so it's all 100 my fault [TS]

02:07:12   but alas it is what it is so um I just [TS]

02:07:17   tell people why people as what my slide [TS]

02:07:19   I just um to search for Ben Thompson on [TS]

02:07:20   Google because the that's the to don't [TS]

02:07:23   Jason freed thing like we were talking [TS]

02:07:24   about domain names like for years and [TS]

02:07:26   years base camp [TS]

02:07:27   they didn't have base camp comm they [TS]

02:07:28   have it now but they just had basecamphq [TS]

02:07:31   calm because he didn't yeah he didn't [TS]

02:07:33   you know somebody had base camp dot-com [TS]

02:07:35   and he didn't feel like paying their [TS]

02:07:36   exorbitant price he did eventually but [TS]

02:07:38   he was like screw it people just google [TS]

02:07:39   for base camp anyway right it is true [TS]

02:07:43   anyway I you've written about this like [TS]

02:07:48   so you don't um it's certainly not your [TS]

02:07:51   writing is not Apple focused it not even [TS]

02:07:54   in a way that mine is but you certainly [TS]

02:07:55   do right enough about apples simply [TS]

02:07:57   because if you write about tech in [TS]

02:07:58   general Apple is kind of a big company [TS]

02:08:01   and they kind of do enter a lot of tend [TS]

02:08:03   to do interesting things but you've [TS]

02:08:04   spoken about this that when you write [TS]

02:08:06   articles or have like a column that's [TS]

02:08:08   sort of critical of Apple you you get [TS]

02:08:11   like on subscriptions sometimes it so [TS]

02:08:13   yeah I don't want to hear it no way [TS]

02:08:16   that's always been the case I mean it [TS]

02:08:17   was so when I started I wrote a lot more [TS]

02:08:19   probably even more about Apple in part [TS]

02:08:22   because that was the company I knew the [TS]

02:08:23   best like I've been following closely [TS]

02:08:24   I'd written like I'd written a huge [TS]

02:08:26   paper about them in school uh like in I [TS]

02:08:29   spent a lot of time trying to understand [TS]

02:08:32   and think about what made them [TS]

02:08:33   successful and I was saying in turn [TS]

02:08:34   there um it at a university would in [TS]

02:08:37   what God came to learn and understand so [TS]

02:08:40   much about sort of the inner workings it [TS]

02:08:42   was a fantastic experience and [TS]

02:08:43   especially when I started also it was [TS]

02:08:45   when the whole Samsung is gonna is [TS]

02:08:48   disrupting Apple narrative was was in [TS]

02:08:51   was in place [TS]

02:08:52   and so I got tons of articles saying [TS]

02:08:54   this is dumb like India trying to [TS]

02:08:56   explain Apple and their differentiation [TS]

02:08:58   and back then it was controversial to [TS]

02:09:00   say that iOS it was not going to be [TS]

02:09:03   swamped by Android and developers [TS]

02:09:04   working awfully on mass and all the sort [TS]

02:09:06   of stuff like that was still a thing [TS]

02:09:07   back then yeah so I am an iPhone dead in [TS]

02:09:11   the water Henry Blodgett right right and [TS]

02:09:13   and the biggest you know as I've [TS]

02:09:16   recounted the sort of biggest event in [TS]

02:09:19   the early church every day's for gaining [TS]

02:09:21   readership was you linking to me and [TS]

02:09:22   saying you know this is a fantastic new [TS]

02:09:24   blog and you wink too much are a bunch [TS]

02:09:26   of articles and as per kind of like this [TS]

02:09:28   column this week like oh this is a great [TS]

02:09:30   blog the really good biloba but for the [TS]

02:09:33   first time I disagree with mr. Thomson [TS]

02:09:34   that he like explained where explain [TS]

02:09:36   where I was wrong um which but that was [TS]

02:09:39   an outright disagreement though not this [TS]

02:09:41   time this time it's like I said it's a [TS]

02:09:42   subtle difference of of wait I would say [TS]

02:09:46   yeah and I actually I actually think [TS]

02:09:48   you're right in that case um and so it [TS]

02:09:50   was definitely right back then I was [TS]

02:09:53   just waited that's the I was just really [TS]

02:09:55   I was just waiting for you to make a [TS]

02:09:56   mistake and then I knew I could link to [TS]

02:09:58   you because then instead of just saying [TS]

02:09:59   how great it was I could also point out [TS]

02:10:00   that you made an error and you're [TS]

02:10:02   thinking I was just a hit for it would [TS]

02:10:05   the the lot of service always sort of my [TS]

02:10:07   initial and then after that I got linked [TS]

02:10:09   to by Marco a couple times and so I [TS]

02:10:11   really started in the sort of Apple [TS]

02:10:13   blogosphere is where awareness of me [TS]

02:10:16   started to grow so a lot of my initial [TS]

02:10:18   followers were were in that in that [TS]

02:10:22   arena so if that's forward like a year [TS]

02:10:24   or something and I wrote something about [TS]

02:10:26   Apple and services and basically I was a [TS]

02:10:29   this was a I said it was in a good point [TS]

02:10:32   it's a point that I brought up again and [TS]

02:10:34   again is how companies are sort of [TS]

02:10:35   shaped by their by their origin and [TS]

02:10:37   they're there and that influences the [TS]

02:10:41   culture and the way they approach [TS]

02:10:42   products for the entire life of a [TS]

02:10:44   company and I gave talk about Google [TS]

02:10:45   talked about Microsoft talked about [TS]

02:10:46   Apple talked about a bunch of examples [TS]

02:10:48   and this case I was make trying to [TS]

02:10:49   explain that Apple struggle with [TS]

02:10:53   services not because they're dumb but [TS]

02:10:55   because they're so great at products and [TS]

02:10:57   this is a point you know obviously I've [TS]

02:10:58   returned to this point in the past like [TS]

02:11:00   to say that Apple strove the services is [TS]

02:11:02   not to criticize Apple or say they're [TS]

02:11:04   dumb people it's [TS]

02:11:06   in a recognition that the same things [TS]

02:11:08   that make Apple the best product company [TS]

02:11:11   an amazing product company work against [TS]

02:11:13   being a great services company right ETL [TS]

02:11:16   people didn't want to hear after people [TS]

02:11:18   did not want to hear it so I had just [TS]

02:11:20   started the daily update then and so my [TS]

02:11:23   you know my subscriber numbers were in [TS]

02:11:24   the you know I think at that point as [TS]

02:11:26   only a couple months in so maybe the low [TS]

02:11:27   hundreds and I got like 20 or 30 like [TS]

02:11:31   unsubscription like immediately people [TS]

02:11:33   were met and it was it was shocking like [TS]

02:11:36   I did not expect that to come at all um [TS]

02:11:38   it was good it was a good lesson to [TS]

02:11:40   learn like the people were cared more [TS]

02:11:43   about Apple than they did about me and [TS]

02:11:45   that's fine I have no no problem with [TS]

02:11:47   that and over time you know certainly [TS]

02:11:48   I've come to build up you know a user [TS]

02:11:52   base and when the great things why model [TS]

02:11:53   is it's ten dollars a month so if you [TS]

02:11:54   want to quit it doesn't really affect me [TS]

02:11:55   my life in the slightest which is great [TS]

02:11:58   but I actually love that about about [TS]

02:12:00   this model but yeah it's funny whenever [TS]

02:12:02   I write something that is not purely [TS]

02:12:06   optimistic about Apple there is [TS]

02:12:07   definitely an uptick in people turning [TS]

02:12:10   off auto renewal and there are other [TS]

02:12:12   subscriptions I've seen it on sports [TS]

02:12:14   - like I follow some Yankees beat [TS]

02:12:16   writers on tweeter Twitter and every [TS]

02:12:19   once in a while they'll get an argument [TS]

02:12:20   with people and there's a certain [TS]

02:12:21   certain flavor of Yankee fan who just [TS]

02:12:25   doesn't want to hear it that the Yankees [TS]

02:12:27   aren't the best team in baseball now [TS]

02:12:28   this year they actually are the best [TS]

02:12:29   team in baseball but but like last year [TS]

02:12:32   last couple of years the Yankees have [TS]

02:12:33   been kind of you know there haven't been [TS]

02:12:36   bad they haven't had a losing season but [TS]

02:12:37   there clearly were not going anywhere [TS]

02:12:39   you know weren't going to win a [TS]

02:12:41   championship and any kind of sports [TS]

02:12:43   coverage along the lines of you know [TS]

02:12:45   it's not really a great strategy to be [TS]

02:12:47   paying 27 million dollars to a 41 41 [TS]

02:12:50   year old Alex Rodriguez with a bad hip [TS]

02:12:53   and the Yankees fans like wow what well [TS]

02:12:55   how can you you know why do you want to [TS]

02:12:56   write about the Yankees if you hate them [TS]

02:12:57   so much [TS]

02:12:58   right like unfollow and it's like [TS]

02:13:01   actually he's just sort of an expert on [TS]

02:13:03   baseball and he's pointing out something [TS]

02:13:04   that's actually pretty obvious which is [TS]

02:13:06   that you know having old people on your [TS]

02:13:09   team is not a good way to win it sports [TS]

02:13:11   yeah and I it's a great it's a great [TS]

02:13:13   thing for Apple it's one of Apple's [TS]

02:13:14   really core strengths is the the [TS]

02:13:19   devotion that Apple has fans right like [TS]

02:13:22   it's that's not a from a business [TS]

02:13:24   perspective I look I put my business a [TS]

02:13:25   nose hat on and I that's amazing and [TS]

02:13:28   it's something that Apple uses as a tool [TS]

02:13:31   as a strategic tool again and again like [TS]

02:13:34   they that's that's how the iPhone know [TS]

02:13:38   they would go into a country and they [TS]

02:13:40   would dictate terms and deleting [TS]

02:13:43   carriers would say no and then they go [TS]

02:13:45   the second place carrier and often they [TS]

02:13:46   say no they go to third place carrier [TS]

02:13:48   who's desperate to catch up and say okay [TS]

02:13:51   we accept your terms and then the iPhone [TS]

02:13:53   is on the carrier like Japan is probably [TS]

02:13:55   the classic example of this Softbank was [TS]

02:13:57   well in third place and the iPhone is on [TS]

02:14:00   Softbank and people started switching [TS]

02:14:04   their carriers which they never did [TS]

02:14:06   before to get the iPhone and by and [TS]

02:14:09   large particularly at the beginning they [TS]

02:14:11   were Apple fans who already loved Apple [TS]

02:14:13   loved Apple products desperately wanted [TS]

02:14:14   an iPhone and they switched this [TS]

02:14:16   happened the US was eight with AT&T same [TS]

02:14:17   thing and over time then Apple could [TS]

02:14:20   eventually now the iPhone is on all the [TS]

02:14:23   carriers and it's on Apple's terms with [TS]

02:14:25   all of them and that's all because of [TS]

02:14:27   the devotion that people have the Apple [TS]

02:14:29   it's an amazing it's a it's an amazing [TS]

02:14:31   tool well uh what what a weird duck the [TS]

02:14:35   Verizon iPhone 4 was right it's like [TS]

02:14:38   that it's like the only sort of half [TS]

02:14:40   live phone that was ever made like it's [TS]

02:14:42   not just like when we'll get to this in [TS]

02:14:43   a minute or two but not like oK we've [TS]

02:14:45   made the pie from seven in red I mean [TS]

02:14:48   that's just a color it was available in [TS]

02:14:51   white though because remember the white [TS]

02:14:52   phone was super delayed yeah but when [TS]

02:14:55   the Verizon one shipped it the white one [TS]

02:14:56   still wasn't even out so like I think [TS]

02:14:58   the Verizon won't shipped in early [TS]

02:15:00   February but it was weird it I thought [TS]

02:15:02   it was the same time yeah but we are [TS]

02:15:04   like it was still weird yeah yeah it was [TS]

02:15:05   like eight months later and had a [TS]

02:15:07   different antenna you know had the the [TS]

02:15:09   modern iPhone 4s antenna design not the [TS]

02:15:12   the slightly problematic and tenha gate [TS]

02:15:15   one from the [TS]

02:15:17   the GSM version anyway what a weird [TS]

02:15:19   thing all right so let's do this yes so [TS]

02:15:25   the yeah so basically the overall [TS]

02:15:28   premise is that in China the user [TS]

02:15:33   interface WeChat is so dominant that it [TS]

02:15:37   reduces sort of the software lock-in [TS]

02:15:40   that an iPhone has which makes it more [TS]

02:15:43   viable to switch a very sort of high [TS]

02:15:46   level that's it and I would just kind of [TS]

02:15:48   tap down one level which means when I [TS]

02:15:51   talk about the the walk-in it's not just [TS]

02:15:53   a walk-in in in that there's no iMessage [TS]

02:15:55   or that apps are available in both [TS]

02:15:57   platforms which is the case I mean [TS]

02:15:58   there's no app that's why I use in China [TS]

02:16:00   that's not available on Android like [TS]

02:16:02   it's not really an iOS first sort of [TS]

02:16:04   environment the way it is in the US [TS]

02:16:07   we're even still there'll be hot new [TS]

02:16:09   apps that are there iOS only to start so [TS]

02:16:11   that's not so that's part of it but also [TS]

02:16:13   it's not just the apps it's the [TS]

02:16:15   interaction it's the user interface when [TS]

02:16:18   you're in one app all the time you're [TS]

02:16:20   using that app and that's the dominant [TS]

02:16:23   way that you experience your phone [TS]

02:16:24   whereas in the u.s. yes we may use [TS]

02:16:27   Facebook and uber and and PayPal or or [TS]

02:16:32   Square cash or whatever it might be that [TS]

02:16:34   are all analogs for WeChat functions but [TS]

02:16:37   every time you switch an app every time [TS]

02:16:39   use the app switcher every time you go [TS]

02:16:40   back to the home screen [TS]

02:16:41   that's all interact with the operating [TS]

02:16:43   system your interact with the operating [TS]

02:16:44   system constantly on and Ayana and in [TS]

02:16:48   China you're not really interacting with [TS]

02:16:52   the operating system at all so there's [TS]

02:16:53   no even the little niggling things about [TS]

02:16:56   moving stuff around is is reduced and so [TS]

02:17:01   the lock-in is not just about a actual [TS]

02:17:04   like on paper locking it's like in the [TS]

02:17:06   user experience lock-in is less as well [TS]

02:17:09   it almost sounds to me like it's used [TS]

02:17:11   for so much that it's actually a problem [TS]

02:17:13   that iOS doesn't let you define you know [TS]

02:17:18   like like they don't show the icon [TS]

02:17:21   anymore but you know how like from the [TS]

02:17:22   lockscreen you can jump right to the [TS]

02:17:23   camera by swiping to the side and when [TS]

02:17:25   they first introduced that feature they [TS]

02:17:27   had a little camera icon in [TS]

02:17:28   corner right yell and you could like I [TS]

02:17:30   think used to drag up instead of drag [TS]

02:17:32   over um like they've changed the [TS]

02:17:34   interaction but the idea is here's an [TS]

02:17:37   app that's so important and you know [TS]

02:17:40   obviously cameras a little different [TS]

02:17:41   than we chat because camera it might be [TS]

02:17:42   a fleeting moment you're trying to [TS]

02:17:44   capture so the being able to get there [TS]

02:17:45   quick it's not just that you use it a [TS]

02:17:46   lot but that getting there quickly [TS]

02:17:48   from a locked phone can be the [TS]

02:17:50   difference between getting the shot not [TS]

02:17:52   getting the shot um but iOS doesn't let [TS]

02:17:55   you do things like say let me put WeChat [TS]

02:17:58   on my lock screen so I can jump right to [TS]

02:18:01   we chat from a locked phone right away [TS]

02:18:04   like you did none of that's configurable [TS]

02:18:06   and it sounds to me like we chat is so [TS]

02:18:07   central into the experience in China [TS]

02:18:09   that the iPhone would be a better OS if [TS]

02:18:12   you could yeah well it's not it in many [TS]

02:18:16   respects all the all the sort of lock in [TS]

02:18:18   things on an iPhone that are [TS]

02:18:20   occasionally mild irritants uh you know [TS]

02:18:23   here but by and large the iPhone like [TS]

02:18:25   the Apple's built-in stuff is usually [TS]

02:18:27   good enough that it's it's fine like you [TS]

02:18:29   know you can't switch the default [TS]

02:18:30   browser you can switch the default email [TS]

02:18:31   client or all sorts that little stuff [TS]

02:18:34   that that can be kind of irritating if [TS]

02:18:35   you care but at the end of the day it's [TS]

02:18:37   not that big a deal in China it's much [TS]

02:18:39   more of it's much more of an irritant [TS]

02:18:41   like any member Android there is is [TS]

02:18:43   completely it's not Google Android it's [TS]

02:18:46   all it they're all like Chinese variants [TS]

02:18:49   and and a lot of them are offer much [TS]

02:18:52   more sort of flexibility Zi and Whittle [TS]

02:18:56   you know they just use phones kind of [TS]

02:18:59   differently than we do here and so in [TS]

02:19:00   some respects and iPhone is not just [TS]

02:19:02   it's not just that because you're most [TS]

02:19:04   using WeChat the experience is mostly [TS]

02:19:06   the same in some respects it's arguably [TS]

02:19:09   actually worse in a way that it isn't [TS]

02:19:11   you know in other parts of the world [TS]

02:19:12   yeah then that's that is terrible for [TS]

02:19:16   Apple and so let's just say this before [TS]

02:19:18   we get into speculation or analysts but [TS]

02:19:21   it's just a fact it's a statement of [TS]

02:19:23   fact that iPhone sales in China are down [TS]

02:19:25   year over year I think in the just [TS]

02:19:27   completed quarter they were down 14% [TS]

02:19:30   yeah in the second year in a row they [TS]

02:19:33   were down even more last year [TS]

02:19:34   two years in a row and until then there [TS]

02:19:37   were the the it was it it was an [TS]

02:19:41   increase it's it's sharp [TS]

02:19:42   different it's almost like a v-shaped [TS]

02:19:43   curve I think it's fair to say where it [TS]

02:19:46   was it was rising very quickly you're [TS]

02:19:48   over a year and then all of a sudden now [TS]

02:19:50   it's dropping your veer wasn't like it [TS]

02:19:51   was off for a while [TS]

02:19:53   there's no plateau really I don't think [TS]

02:19:55   and so why I mean it's a fact that [TS]

02:19:58   iPhone sales are down it is also we [TS]

02:20:01   can't say it's a fact but there's least [TS]

02:20:03   to market research studies like you you [TS]

02:20:06   found one that was written in Chinese [TS]

02:20:08   and then there's another one that [TS]

02:20:09   Business Insider linked up last year I [TS]

02:20:12   forget who some us analyst firm but both [TS]

02:20:15   of them found roughly the same thing [TS]

02:20:16   which is that um in 2016 in China iPhone [TS]

02:20:21   users people who already owned an iPhone [TS]

02:20:23   and they if they bought a new smartphone [TS]

02:20:25   only about 50 to 55 percent of them [TS]

02:20:28   bought another iPhone and in the rest of [TS]

02:20:31   the world that number ranges from around [TS]

02:20:34   there like the mid 70s in Japan to the [TS]

02:20:36   mid 80s in the US and UK and the high [TS]

02:20:38   80s in Germany and so we can't say it's [TS]

02:20:43   a fact that 50 percent of Chinese iPhone [TS]

02:20:46   users bought an Android phone last year [TS]

02:20:48   but we can say it's a fact that to [TS]

02:20:49   market research studies that seem pretty [TS]

02:20:51   well rigorously performed to me say so [TS]

02:20:54   right and it's shown in Apple's numbers [TS]

02:20:57   - I mean there's there several there's [TS]

02:20:59   several data points to triangulate on [TS]

02:21:01   here right in it that in that that's a [TS]

02:21:03   like that's a stunning difference like [TS]

02:21:05   it's not like it's one it's not small [TS]

02:21:07   but - I mean one of the real points that [TS]

02:21:11   I talked about going back to those Apple [TS]

02:21:13   arguments you know back when I first [TS]

02:21:14   started checker II like one of the core [TS]

02:21:16   things that was critical to understand [TS]

02:21:18   with the iPhone is that iPhone users [TS]

02:21:19   bought new iPhones and Android users [TS]

02:21:22   often changed and if you just play that [TS]

02:21:25   out in the long run in a saturated [TS]

02:21:27   market that's actually the Apple's favor [TS]

02:21:29   because they're going to keep their [TS]

02:21:30   users and they're just going to slowly [TS]

02:21:32   keep adding other ones and that's what [TS]

02:21:34   is actually happening what's so [TS]

02:21:35   interesting about this this core the [TS]

02:21:38   iPhone 7 both this quarter and last [TS]

02:21:40   quarter is that if you exclude China [TS]

02:21:42   it's a smashing success [TS]

02:21:43   yeah like it is still growing and it's [TS]

02:21:46   growing nicely and it's growing in [TS]

02:21:48   quote-unquote saturated markets and this [TS]

02:21:50   is exactly in this is something that [TS]

02:21:52   I've been I've been writing since way [TS]

02:21:54   back when that actually a saturated [TS]

02:21:55   market [TS]

02:21:56   is going to be good for Apple because of [TS]

02:21:58   this you know if you just pull out the [TS]

02:22:00   math and Tim Cook has made that point [TS]

02:22:02   but it's more compelling from you [TS]

02:22:04   because he is to draw about her well [TS]

02:22:07   yeah you and I were chatting about this [TS]

02:22:09   and you you completely convinced me you [TS]

02:22:11   you you you made me rethink my take on [TS]

02:22:14   apples just complete a quarter that is [TS]

02:22:17   actually pretty good except that it's [TS]

02:22:19   really stinky in China right and in it's [TS]

02:22:23   good in a it's good in an understandable [TS]

02:22:25   predictable way right it's not like [TS]

02:22:27   these these growing numbers like wow [TS]

02:22:29   look at Apple growing no if you actually [TS]

02:22:31   think through and you you've talked [TS]

02:22:33   about it before why advertising would be [TS]

02:22:35   compelling on mobile because mobile is [TS]

02:22:36   so important to your life well if mobile [TS]

02:22:38   is so important to your life [TS]

02:22:40   that means of all the objects even if [TS]

02:22:42   you have to save money or cut costs [TS]

02:22:43   what's the one object you're actually [TS]

02:22:46   going to splurge on all right probably [TS]

02:22:48   the object that's the single most [TS]

02:22:49   important object in your life right and [TS]

02:22:51   that's the iPhone that's Apple and the [TS]

02:22:53   iMessage thing and having blue bubbles [TS]

02:22:55   in the status that confers to it and the [TS]

02:22:57   fact people use it all the time and like [TS]

02:22:58   all that stuff like there's just really [TS]

02:23:01   no reason to why would you want to [TS]

02:23:04   switch and whereas there are reasons to [TS]

02:23:07   go in the other direction and this has [TS]

02:23:08   always been the problem of being an om [TS]

02:23:10   whether it be a Windows OEM that we [TS]

02:23:12   talked about before like HP and think [TS]

02:23:13   pattern you know what's the difference [TS]

02:23:15   same thing with Android like at the end [TS]

02:23:17   the day what's really the difference yes [TS]

02:23:18   Samsung is doing some innovative stuff [TS]

02:23:20   with hardware but that's not a [TS]

02:23:22   sustainable that's not a sustainable [TS]

02:23:23   advantage and uh whereas Apple's has [TS]

02:23:27   always had the software part and that's [TS]

02:23:28   so critical I think that's a you know we [TS]

02:23:32   worth underlining again just how [TS]

02:23:35   interesting that observation is and I'm [TS]

02:23:36   convinced that it's true but if you go [TS]

02:23:39   back six seven the last five six seven [TS]

02:23:42   years I think that the and and going to [TS]

02:23:46   the error you were talking about where [TS]

02:23:48   the the the narrative was that Samsung [TS]

02:23:51   is coming to eat apples lunch because of [TS]

02:23:53   some combination of you can't stay [TS]

02:23:57   differentiated forever and the majority [TS]

02:24:00   oh we saw what happened the last time [TS]

02:24:02   with Windows and Mac the majority OS [TS]

02:24:04   eventually eats the other one and [TS]

02:24:08   I think part of that narrative at the [TS]

02:24:09   time too though was that the go-go years [TS]

02:24:12   were all about expanding to new [TS]

02:24:15   countries and in the rural countries [TS]

02:24:17   expanding the new carriers like being [TS]

02:24:20   exclusive on AT&T for four years and now [TS]

02:24:23   all of a sudden you've got Verizon and [TS]

02:24:25   in a year later you had Sprint and [TS]

02:24:26   t-mobile and you know and obviously that [TS]

02:24:29   was the Go Go the true gogo years of the [TS]

02:24:31   iPhone were based on that and but the [TS]

02:24:33   narrative was well that's over now and [TS]

02:24:35   it's a the markets are getting saturated [TS]

02:24:37   and that dooms the iPhone I think that [TS]

02:24:40   you have a really compelling case that [TS]

02:24:41   the saturated markets are actually good [TS]

02:24:43   for the iPhone right then they'll the [TS]

02:24:46   only real danger that the iPhone faces [TS]

02:24:48   in most of the world is people holding [TS]

02:24:50   on to their iPhones longer like no one [TS]

02:24:52   like no one again outside China is [TS]

02:24:54   really switching away it's just the the [TS]

02:24:57   phones are so good now that you can use [TS]

02:24:59   a phone for four four to three years [TS]

02:25:01   whereas maybe before like the difference [TS]

02:25:04   in year to year the difference every two [TS]

02:25:05   years was so huge I mean I'm never going [TS]

02:25:07   from like I actually you know sighs you [TS]

02:25:09   know I was reported back when I was poor [TS]

02:25:12   and a student I only got a phone every [TS]

02:25:15   two years so I got the 3G and then I got [TS]

02:25:17   the UM not the 3GS because when I came [TS]

02:25:20   back over from the states [TS]

02:25:21   and then and ipod touch before then and [TS]

02:25:25   then I got the skip to for and I got the [TS]

02:25:28   4s I've been going from the 3GS to the [TS]

02:25:30   4s it was such an unbelievable leap in [TS]

02:25:33   every single aspect of the phone the [TS]

02:25:35   form factor was so superior you had the [TS]

02:25:38   Retina screen it was a million times [TS]

02:25:40   faster like just it was amazing whereas [TS]

02:25:43   going from a six to a seven it's [TS]

02:25:46   definitely faster you feel that uh in [TS]

02:25:48   going back in the button feels weird [TS]

02:25:51   it's like that but at the end of the day [TS]

02:25:53   could i it just the the delta from the [TS]

02:25:57   way it's experienced is much smaller [TS]

02:25:58   than is and this is the case for [TS]

02:25:59   technology it's always the case that you [TS]

02:26:01   get kind of decreasing returns but I'm [TS]

02:26:04   not going to switch away yeah the three [TS]

02:26:07   I think that the the 4s was right around [TS]

02:26:09   the time to where I phone was arguably a [TS]

02:26:14   reasonable point and shoot camera in and [TS]

02:26:16   of itself whereas the 3GS of is still a [TS]

02:26:18   cell phone camera [TS]

02:26:20   yep leggo it's it's been so long now and [TS]

02:26:22   people take so many pictures on their [TS]

02:26:24   phones that it's hard to imagine that [TS]

02:26:26   like in the early years of the iPhone [TS]

02:26:27   cellphone cameras were took like a [TS]

02:26:30   second a totally it was almost like a [TS]

02:26:32   different medium than I've done a camera [TS]

02:26:34   photo you know it was no Instagram [TS]

02:26:36   that's not part of all Instagram but off [TS]

02:26:37   the ground because your 3G I think it [TS]

02:26:39   came out with a 3GS in or right around [TS]

02:26:41   that and your phones were so bad that [TS]

02:26:43   the filters were just a cool effect they [TS]

02:26:45   actually made a mic passable right they [TS]

02:26:47   disguised the the lack of optical [TS]

02:26:50   quality in the originals you know right [TS]

02:26:52   right it was true it was also true too [TS]

02:26:58   like in the early years of Instagram [TS]

02:27:00   like when people were shooting on 3GS or [TS]

02:27:02   iPhone 4 or something where people would [TS]

02:27:04   say like hashtag no filter because it [TS]

02:27:06   was hard to believe if you got a good [TS]

02:27:08   photo effect like like seriously I did [TS]

02:27:11   not use a photo people be like oh you [TS]

02:27:13   know a filter doesn't feel like yes you [TS]

02:27:14   did this looks too good no I swear to [TS]

02:27:16   God the light was nice [TS]

02:27:18   so anyway bottom line something is [TS]

02:27:20   different for the iPhone in China and it [TS]

02:27:22   is not good for Apple and especially if [TS]

02:27:26   I'm I accepted I accept that the what's [TS]

02:27:29   that what's it called the rate that [TS]

02:27:31   people rebuy the same product iPhone all [TS]

02:27:36   I a new iPhone what's it called [TS]

02:27:38   retention yeah the retention rate [TS]

02:27:40   retention rate is significantly lower [TS]

02:27:43   and again it's not catastrophic it's you [TS]

02:27:45   know 50 to 55 percent most most it's [TS]

02:27:48   still the best of any OEM in China most [TS]

02:27:50   I glanced pretty significant margin most [TS]

02:27:52   OEMs would kill for that rate but that's [TS]

02:27:54   that's not good for Apple so something [TS]

02:27:57   is different and you and I are in [TS]

02:27:59   complete agreement that we chat is [TS]

02:28:01   obviously the biggest part of that I I [TS]

02:28:04   think that you can't prove it but it [TS]

02:28:07   just seems it I can't imagine what else [TS]

02:28:11   would be yeah and what I think it's hard [TS]

02:28:13   to really understand is merely because [TS]

02:28:16   the analogy would be like a Facebook [TS]

02:28:17   will face you know Facebook spin [TS]

02:28:19   people's and tons of time on that biloba [TS]

02:28:20   but the extent to which you know [TS]

02:28:22   Facebook and apps like that are dominant [TS]

02:28:25   in kind of leisure time and downtime and [TS]

02:28:27   what [TS]

02:28:29   WeChat is dominant in all times and it's [TS]

02:28:32   not just and the other big thing it's [TS]

02:28:34   not just on device times so yes they're [TS]

02:28:36   dominant in your social interactions or [TS]

02:28:39   dominant in news they're dominant in you [TS]

02:28:41   know watching all sorts of things you've [TS]

02:28:43   the MBA is on $0.10 um you like so [TS]

02:28:46   they're they're dominant as far as on [TS]

02:28:48   device things but the degree to which [TS]

02:28:50   you use your phone for the real world is [TS]

02:28:52   far more extensive in China than it is [TS]

02:28:54   in the US I mean the China is way ahead [TS]

02:28:56   in this sort of they called oto online [TS]

02:28:58   to offline this whole arena is much [TS]

02:29:00   bigger much more well developed in China [TS]

02:29:02   so you're using your phone constantly [TS]

02:29:04   throughout the day to interact with us [TS]

02:29:06   in it's all via WeChat so you're really [TS]

02:29:08   living this app I mean I mean government [TS]

02:29:11   interactions are through through this [TS]

02:29:12   like not not just getting cars paying [TS]

02:29:13   for food paying for goods uh you know [TS]

02:29:16   you see there's QR codes everywhere like [TS]

02:29:18   the whole thing runs on QR codes and and [TS]

02:29:19   you know what's the promised QR codes is [TS]

02:29:21   you don't know where the what actually [TS]

02:29:23   use to snap the QR code well there's no [TS]

02:29:25   question about which app to use there [TS]

02:29:27   and so the pervasiveness of WeChat in [TS]

02:29:30   just your interaction is is there's no [TS]

02:29:33   app there's really is nothing in the [TS]

02:29:36   outside of China that is comparable and [TS]

02:29:37   and and that's why that's good for Apple [TS]

02:29:41   because it's not it's Facebook it really [TS]

02:29:43   isn't the same right like you said that [TS]

02:29:45   like it's like you go out to lunch with [TS]

02:29:48   your colleagues and you know go to like [TS]

02:29:50   a counter service place and get [TS]

02:29:51   something and you know like if you're [TS]

02:29:53   paying with cash you look instead of [TS]

02:29:54   taking out your phone to pay with WeChat [TS]

02:29:56   you look like you're you know like like [TS]

02:29:58   trying to be a hipster or something [TS]

02:30:00   right yeah I don't want to overstate it [TS]

02:30:02   because it's still I mean that's that's [TS]

02:30:03   more the case in specific areas like [TS]

02:30:05   Beijing and Shanghai and some of the and [TS]

02:30:08   whereas you know there's lots of parts [TS]

02:30:09   trying to reach still use cash a lot in [TS]

02:30:10   in the big cities as well but the trend [TS]

02:30:13   is like super strong and it's not in it [TS]

02:30:15   it's in surprising places right you can [TS]

02:30:17   go to like markets in like the little [TS]

02:30:19   lady we have we have a phone I mean like [TS]

02:30:20   there's no x-square sort of thing just [TS]

02:30:22   it's all via it's all via $0.10 and this [TS]

02:30:24   gets into a point I made earlier like [TS]

02:30:26   the user experience is not just about [TS]

02:30:28   the user interface like the user [TS]

02:30:29   interface like Apple pays is superior [TS]

02:30:31   like to make an outfit purchase is so [TS]

02:30:33   elegant right you just hold it up and [TS]

02:30:34   put your thumb on it's amazing but if [TS]

02:30:37   when you consider the totality of it [TS]

02:30:40   where you have to figure out oh do you [TS]

02:30:42   accept Apple [TS]

02:30:43   you have to like be awkward and ask and [TS]

02:30:44   look around and they have to bring it up [TS]

02:30:46   with the user whereas the yeah may be [TS]

02:30:49   more clumsy have to open an app and get [TS]

02:30:51   a get a QR code to show but if that's [TS]

02:30:54   the expectation and everyone does it and [TS]

02:30:57   everyone is equipped for it then yeah [TS]

02:30:59   that specific aspect of the UI is [TS]

02:31:02   inferior but the totality of the user [TS]

02:31:04   experience is far far superior than then [TS]

02:31:07   another solution I was at the liquor [TS]

02:31:11   store today and I paid with Apple pay [TS]

02:31:14   they're usually because they have a chip [TS]

02:31:15   reader and it's it's so much it's worse [TS]

02:31:18   than it used to be with a credit card so [TS]

02:31:19   they made out of cards worse and slower [TS]

02:31:21   and Apple pay is fast and it you know [TS]

02:31:24   it's my neighborhood liquor store and I [TS]

02:31:26   know that Apple pay works there and the [TS]

02:31:28   guy was like a crotchety old guy I won't [TS]

02:31:30   go into there long rant about [TS]

02:31:31   Pennsylvania liquor stores being [TS]

02:31:32   government owned and operated but he was [TS]

02:31:35   a total government employee and he said [TS]

02:31:38   how do you know I gonna pay cash or [TS]

02:31:39   credit and I said I'll pay Apple pay and [TS]

02:31:41   he goes oh he can't do that [TS]

02:31:43   and admit like the terminal was broken [TS]

02:31:46   and I looked at instance and saying he [TS]

02:31:47   goes we don't accept that and I said yes [TS]

02:31:49   you do actually you do I was like I pay [TS]

02:31:51   with it here in this store all the time [TS]

02:31:52   and he goes no you don't it goes the [TS]

02:31:55   state the state won't the state won't [TS]

02:31:57   and I was like I'm telling you I was [TS]

02:31:58   just in here yesterday and and bought [TS]

02:32:01   something and uh it and I just thought [TS]

02:32:07   you know what I'm not gonna I am NOT why [TS]

02:32:09   am i arguing this as I got pay credit [TS]

02:32:12   that's funny [TS]

02:32:13   they should want to pay credit and hold [TS]

02:32:15   up your phone in and stealthily pay [TS]

02:32:17   anyway cuz I know that that will [TS]

02:32:18   actually happen yeah but oh the other [TS]

02:32:21   thing the other the other point to make [TS]

02:32:23   about this oh sorry the analogy we [TS]

02:32:25   talked a little bit about Microsoft so [TS]

02:32:27   enjoy that I just told a story that [TS]

02:32:29   makes it sound as though I run out of [TS]

02:32:31   liquor day I don't well I I doubted that [TS]

02:32:33   but I just gotta let it stand but I [TS]

02:32:35   totally do so he said I was there [TS]

02:32:36   yesterday it actually it's true that I [TS]

02:32:38   was there day before but it wasn't so [TS]

02:32:40   much that I drank myself out of liquor [TS]

02:32:42   in a day but that I'm a very poor [TS]

02:32:44   planner in terms of knowing what else I [TS]

02:32:47   might be running low on but anyway yeah [TS]

02:32:50   uh-oh the point to make about this uh [TS]

02:32:53   about how we chat does so many things [TS]

02:32:55   whereas [TS]

02:32:56   Facebook only does some things is what [TS]

02:33:00   happened back in the day when Microsoft [TS]

02:33:02   was dominant like we used lots of apps [TS]

02:33:05   and those apps were actually what we use [TS]

02:33:07   the computer for but the reason why [TS]

02:33:09   Microsoft got all the value and was the [TS]

02:33:11   most valuable them all is they were sort [TS]

02:33:13   of the common the commonality right they [TS]

02:33:16   all ran on Windows and so it was sort of [TS]

02:33:18   by having lots of disparate apps that [TS]

02:33:20   Windows itself got all the value and the [TS]

02:33:23   same thing with with the iPhone there's [TS]

02:33:25   yeah there's we actually use apps we [TS]

02:33:27   don't use the iPhone we spend more time [TS]

02:33:29   inside Facebook inside whatever it might [TS]

02:33:31   be [TS]

02:33:31   but they're all running on the iPhone [TS]

02:33:34   and we use enough different ones that [TS]

02:33:36   where's the winch pin where is the sort [TS]

02:33:38   of you know the the squeeze is is at the [TS]

02:33:40   OS level all right [TS]

02:33:42   what made what what ended Microsoft's [TS]

02:33:45   dominance it was was and why Google [TS]

02:33:48   became dominant because is because the [TS]

02:33:51   web there was so many websites and what [TS]

02:33:54   became the common what became the winch [TS]

02:33:56   point it was Google it was the search [TS]

02:33:57   box right and when everything would you [TS]

02:34:02   guys sort of a one-to-one relationship [TS]

02:34:03   where all between Google using Google [TS]

02:34:06   and the computer ran on the value in [TS]

02:34:09   sort of the value chain kind of went up [TS]

02:34:11   to stack it where to the new platform [TS]

02:34:13   where all the sites sort of sat on top [TS]

02:34:15   of it right so it went up as long it in [TS]

02:34:18   the analogy the phone is as long as [TS]

02:34:20   you're using multiple apps and multiple [TS]

02:34:22   apps are important to your day then the [TS]

02:34:24   actual value the point of leverage is [TS]

02:34:26   the OS but once everything consolidates [TS]

02:34:30   into one app then that point of leverage [TS]

02:34:32   skips up a level and that that is the [TS]

02:34:35   case in China and it's not the case in [TS]

02:34:37   in other places if that makes sense you [TS]

02:34:39   have to have an app that does everything [TS]

02:34:40   if it only did some things it's not [TS]

02:34:43   going to it's not going to steal [TS]

02:34:44   leverage in a similar way in it in the [TS]

02:34:49   Apple's decades old you know almost [TS]

02:34:51   foundational you know literally I mean [TS]

02:34:55   like it software wasn't quite as [TS]

02:34:57   important in the Apple 2 days or Apple 1 [TS]

02:35:00   days even as it is today but you know it [TS]

02:35:04   was the marriage of hardware and [TS]

02:35:06   software that made Apple products [TS]

02:35:08   what you know different right from the [TS]

02:35:11   get-go I mean and again like I mentioned [TS]

02:35:12   in my thing writing about your thing [TS]

02:35:14   that was it's Steve Wozniak's is [TS]

02:35:17   venerated and mostly thought of as an [TS]

02:35:19   engineer hardware engineer because [TS]

02:35:21   that's what he was an electrical [TS]

02:35:22   engineer but he was the software genius [TS]

02:35:24   too I mean he he never written a [TS]

02:35:26   compiler in his life and he he made the [TS]

02:35:28   Apple basic he put the Apple Beit he [TS]

02:35:31   completely created Apple basic from [TS]

02:35:33   scratch yeah it's incredible put it in a [TS]

02:35:35   rock like he didn't eat like borrowed [TS]

02:35:39   somebody's like his neighbor's [TS]

02:35:41   neighborhood HP in a cubicle borrowed [TS]

02:35:44   like a compiler book couldn't taught [TS]

02:35:47   himself to write a compiler in ROM I [TS]

02:35:49   mean he was this software genius it was [TS]

02:35:52   a great basic it was a great version of [TS]

02:35:54   basic and it was right there as soon as [TS]

02:35:56   you turn the machine on in that formula [TS]

02:36:00   of hardware differentiated by [TS]

02:36:03   proprietary software if the software [TS]

02:36:05   side is way more important to Apple in [TS]

02:36:07   long term than the hardware side right [TS]

02:36:10   there's just is how they monetize it [TS]

02:36:11   it's it's a it's a money vehicle all [TS]

02:36:14   right and that's people focus on it [TS]

02:36:16   because it's that's the actual thing you [TS]

02:36:17   buy and certainly Finance people for [TS]

02:36:19   tech people concentrate on it because [TS]

02:36:22   it's easier to do a review of new [TS]

02:36:24   hardware than it is slowly that it is to [TS]

02:36:28   review slowly evolve involves evolving [TS]

02:36:34   software over time but the software is [TS]

02:36:37   way more important than the hardware I [TS]

02:36:39   mean you can have something like the Mac [TS]

02:36:40   Pro that doesn't get updated for four [TS]

02:36:42   years and it's not going to kill the Mac [TS]

02:36:44   but if the software you know was this [TS]

02:36:47   stagnant as the Mac Pro Hardware would [TS]

02:36:49   be a disaster well that and then it [TS]

02:36:51   almost did kill Apple right right that [TS]

02:36:53   is back back in the 90s and yeah this is [TS]

02:36:55   the this was going back to why all those [TS]

02:36:58   people were so wrong about the iPhone [TS]

02:37:00   this is exactly why right they didn't [TS]

02:37:02   properly value software and they didn't [TS]

02:37:05   properly value software because that's [TS]

02:37:06   not Apple didn't charge for it but that [TS]

02:37:08   was - that's what people always fail do [TS]

02:37:11   not understand about Apple is that the [TS]

02:37:13   entire reason why they can charge for [TS]

02:37:16   much for the hardware is because it's [TS]

02:37:18   not for is different I mean there's [TS]

02:37:18   you'd always read reviews right there'd [TS]

02:37:20   be like a review way back in the IP [TS]

02:37:22   magazine like the new Mac Pro it would [TS]

02:37:24   compare it to or Mac or whatever they're [TS]

02:37:26   called back then they would compare it [TS]

02:37:27   to the PC Baba power and it was such [TS]

02:37:29   yeah it was it was it was dumb it was a [TS]

02:37:32   farce right because the reality is if [TS]

02:37:35   you're in the market for a Mac there is [TS]

02:37:38   no competition like that in how do you [TS]

02:37:41   make a lot of money make other way by [TS]

02:37:42   having monopolies like Apple has a [TS]

02:37:44   monopoly they have a monopoly on their [TS]

02:37:46   software the only way to get their [TS]

02:37:47   software is by buying their hardware [TS]

02:37:49   which lets them charge way more for [TS]

02:37:52   their hardware than anyone else can [TS]

02:37:53   charge for there's it I mean in its [TS]

02:37:55   that's why they're the most valuable [TS]

02:37:57   company in the world yep [TS]

02:37:59   and you know again like a perfect point [TS]

02:38:01   the only time Apple was ever actually in [TS]

02:38:02   real trouble and circa you know 1996 or [TS]

02:38:07   so was when their software stack had [TS]

02:38:11   been exposed as being antiquated you [TS]

02:38:14   know and add serious technical problems [TS]

02:38:17   and they were really you know it you [TS]

02:38:19   could make a really compelling case that [TS]

02:38:21   for you know in some cases for some [TS]

02:38:23   people not for everybody but for some [TS]

02:38:25   people it was you know decidedly a worst [TS]

02:38:28   platform than than the competition [TS]

02:38:29   that's all I mean any apples where it [TS]

02:38:32   had been slower than PCs for multiple [TS]

02:38:35   years at that point but when when you [TS]

02:38:37   were getting a situation where like just [TS]

02:38:39   the I mean no protected memory and and [TS]

02:38:41   it was like honestly if you actually [TS]

02:38:45   cared about the work you were doing at [TS]

02:38:47   any given time on your computer you were [TS]

02:38:49   kind of nuts to not use a it's not used [TS]

02:38:52   what was Windows got protected memory [TS]

02:38:54   like to not use Windows you know I might [TS]

02:38:56   have socks but really what I love you [TS]

02:38:57   computer specially all the time a mine [TS]

02:38:59   was not crashing all the time but you [TS]

02:39:01   but the reason of mine wasn't crashing [TS]

02:39:03   all the time was that I was sufficiently [TS]

02:39:05   you were careful about it right [TS]

02:39:06   sufficiently expert at using a Macintosh [TS]

02:39:08   that I knew not to install I knew what [TS]

02:39:10   type of stuff not to install I knew [TS]

02:39:11   exactly and if and if I did crash and I [TS]

02:39:14   got you know I had Mac's bug installed I [TS]

02:39:16   could I wasn't like an expert at Mac's [TS]

02:39:18   bug but I could at least see what it was [TS]

02:39:21   that crash you know I could figure out [TS]

02:39:22   what it was that was causing the problem [TS]

02:39:24   right right that's a problem the fact [TS]

02:39:26   that you had to be an expert Mac and Mac [TS]

02:39:28   user to have that ability that was a [TS]

02:39:31   problem because it weren't supposed to [TS]

02:39:32   it's fine [TS]

02:39:33   like [TS]

02:39:35   where the Mac is today is is a terrific [TS]

02:39:37   position in that regard where if you [TS]

02:39:40   want to be an expert and are an expert [TS]

02:39:42   you can do amazing things that other [TS]

02:39:43   people can't but that the casual user is [TS]

02:39:46   not a necessity though right right it [TS]

02:39:49   does it's absolutely not a necessity [TS]

02:39:51   just to use the web and check your email [TS]

02:39:53   and find out what's going on on Facebook [TS]

02:39:56   right what what really shows how dumb [TS]

02:39:59   the argument about hardware is is that [TS]

02:40:01   the Mac became more valuable as a [TS]

02:40:04   product wine once its Hardware became [TS]

02:40:06   the same as everybody else [TS]

02:40:07   yeah right exactly it it like what's [TS]

02:40:10   they started using ever all standard [TS]

02:40:12   stuff [TS]

02:40:12   it was a more vile product they sold [TS]

02:40:15   more and it's yet people couldn't get [TS]

02:40:17   went back to the iPhone and said all [TS]

02:40:20   because the hardware well it's yeah it's [TS]

02:40:22   it's so funny how people just don't even [TS]

02:40:26   today I mean I think it's mostly the war [TS]

02:40:29   has been won but even today there's [TS]

02:40:31   something like that people don't get the [TS]

02:40:33   the software is not sold for a dollar [TS]

02:40:37   and it's the most viable thing they made [TS]

02:40:39   there was a plan in the 90s before the [TS]

02:40:41   next they settled on then you know [TS]

02:40:43   acquiring next and and using next step [TS]

02:40:46   as their operating system of the future [TS]

02:40:48   but at the point where they were [TS]

02:40:49   evaluating their options and they were [TS]

02:40:51   think about buying the BOS that one of [TS]

02:40:56   the options I think it was Alan Hancock [TS]

02:40:58   who is then the chief technical officer [TS]

02:41:00   which is a position that I don't think [TS]

02:41:02   anybody even held after her at Apple but [TS]

02:41:04   I think it was her who endorsed it and [TS]

02:41:07   if not I apologize to ellen hancock but [TS]

02:41:09   somebody at Apple seriously investigated [TS]

02:41:11   like using Windows NT as the foundation [TS]

02:41:16   and just building like like a TouchWiz [TS]

02:41:19   like a Macintosh TouchWiz interface on [TS]

02:41:21   top of NT you know like what TouchWiz is [TS]

02:41:24   to Android that Apple you just paint a [TS]

02:41:27   little you know a little apple like [TS]

02:41:29   magic on top of it but you can you know [TS]

02:41:31   outsource the actual operating system to [TS]

02:41:33   Windows NT that would have it would have [TS]

02:41:35   completely sunk the company company [TS]

02:41:36   would have been gone and yeah it had it [TS]

02:41:39   exactly upside down right with the way [TS]

02:41:41   right but they can do West doing the [TS]

02:41:43   exact same thing on the hardware side by [TS]

02:41:44   switching the internals to bog-standard [TS]

02:41:46   Intel you know pcs I could [TS]

02:41:49   dual boot into Windows if you wanted [TS]

02:41:51   them to or still can today you know [TS]

02:41:54   what's the best thing that ever happened [TS]

02:41:55   to Mac hardware right and so the reason [TS]

02:41:58   this matters is if you're into why the [TS]

02:42:00   iPhone 7 will sell well is if you need a [TS]

02:42:02   new phone you're gonna buy your honor [TS]

02:42:04   you're gonna buy an iPhone 7 right it's [TS]

02:42:05   faster and it's better and yes in the [TS]

02:42:07   camera is better and yeah it may it may [TS]

02:42:08   be it looks the same as iPhone 6 but [TS]

02:42:10   like your when that's your only choice [TS]

02:42:12   it's not really that big of a deal right [TS]

02:42:15   and and the problem in the problem in it [TS]

02:42:18   whereas Android like it's like the what [TS]

02:42:21   lock in there's not really any lock in [TS]

02:42:22   all sales has been trying to create some [TS]

02:42:24   sort of walk-in for years and they fail [TS]

02:42:26   because they're that's not what they're [TS]

02:42:27   good at [TS]

02:42:28   so here's where we disagree where we [TS]

02:42:29   disagree we agree that it's a big [TS]

02:42:31   problem for Apple if we that we Chad's [TS]

02:42:33   dominance is more important more central [TS]

02:42:36   than iOS to the experience would then [TS]

02:42:39   lend you believe that more iPhone users [TS]

02:42:41   would be willing to switch to Android [TS]

02:42:42   and we're seeing proof of that that it's [TS]

02:42:44   happening right where we subtly disagree [TS]

02:42:47   is that you also think it's a factor in [TS]

02:42:49   these declining sales is the fact that [TS]

02:42:51   the iPhone 7 looks so much like a 6 and [TS]

02:42:53   success yeah and the Hazen's because [TS]

02:42:57   yeah great this is the point that's the [TS]

02:42:59   exact point where my sort of definitely [TS]

02:43:03   contrary into most people because I [TS]

02:43:05   think that most people who oh pine [TS]

02:43:07   professionally about the design of [TS]

02:43:09   phones took that you know emphasize the [TS]

02:43:13   wow it's the same form factor as the [TS]

02:43:15   last two years and that's not you know [TS]

02:43:18   that that's an inherently negative thing [TS]

02:43:20   I I agree in the basics though you know [TS]

02:43:25   I'm not I'm not like I'm not arguing the [TS]

02:43:27   extreme point that the iPhone is now in [TS]

02:43:29   a perfect shape and should never change [TS]

02:43:32   in any dimension or something like that [TS]

02:43:34   I just think it's less of a factor than [TS]

02:43:38   you do and in fact almost irrelevant in [TS]

02:43:40   the China case well see I so I agree [TS]

02:43:43   with you in in most to the rest of the [TS]

02:43:45   world because at the end of day you're [TS]

02:43:47   by to buy an iPhone is to buy in an iOS [TS]

02:43:52   delivery device right at the end of day [TS]

02:43:54   the hardware is a vehicle to get the [TS]

02:43:56   software that you want and this is what [TS]

02:43:59   Apple is and always has been the [TS]

02:44:02   but what it would just set aside Apple [TS]

02:44:04   for a while and think about what drives [TS]

02:44:05   high-end Samsung sells what drives you [TS]

02:44:08   know other high-end vendors in China [TS]

02:44:10   Huawei and Oppo like why would you [TS]

02:44:13   choose one or the other we are going to [TS]

02:44:15   choose based on hardware you're going to [TS]

02:44:18   choose and what goes into hardware with [TS]

02:44:20   some aspect of it is features like the [TS]

02:44:22   camera and which is better not some [TS]

02:44:24   aspect of it is the way it looks we're [TS]

02:44:25   talking about a device that's with you [TS]

02:44:28   all the time your most personal device [TS]

02:44:29   it's it's you pull out you put on the [TS]

02:44:31   table it's something that says who you [TS]

02:44:34   are and part of that is if you something [TS]

02:44:38   that looks the same here's the analogy I [TS]

02:44:39   would take think about buying a Mercedes [TS]

02:44:43   or buying a BMW or Audi or whatever or [TS]

02:44:46   whatever you want are there differences [TS]

02:44:48   in how they drive in their performance [TS]

02:44:50   yes of course there are and some people [TS]

02:44:52   will always only buy a Mercedes there'll [TS]

02:44:54   always only buy a BMW and that's the [TS]

02:44:57   same thing with using say WeChat on a [TS]

02:44:59   phone or using on Android some people [TS]

02:45:01   will only ever buy one of them because [TS]

02:45:02   it's still different it's still there's [TS]

02:45:04   some aspect of the experience that is [TS]

02:45:05   still you know about iOS and those it's [TS]

02:45:08   not to say that that's not a factor in [TS]

02:45:10   China it still is it just it's not as [TS]

02:45:12   big is the number of people that [TS]

02:45:14   actually carry out that are fewer but [TS]

02:45:17   the way some people will choose to buy [TS]

02:45:18   which car to buy is well it's been the [TS]

02:45:21   you know BMP which came with a new 5 [TS]

02:45:23   Series but before then the sales were [TS]

02:45:24   really bad the previous year why is it [TS]

02:45:26   been the same design for five years and [TS]

02:45:28   now this year the sales are really good [TS]

02:45:29   why because they just came out with a [TS]

02:45:31   new model and it's the same sort of [TS]

02:45:33   thing if it's this if it's the old model [TS]

02:45:36   maybe you'll buy it because you just [TS]

02:45:37   actually like an iPhone that much but [TS]

02:45:39   maybe you'll buy something else and the [TS]

02:45:42   implication is I'm actually a bit of an [TS]

02:45:44   optimist in the short term because the [TS]

02:45:45   new iPhones going to come out I think [TS]

02:45:47   lots of people want to buy it I my point [TS]

02:45:51   that it's not relevant though is that it [TS]

02:45:52   even if there is a spike let's say let's [TS]

02:45:57   just say that the rumors are true and [TS]

02:45:58   Apple ships in September at least one [TS]

02:46:02   iPhone that's a very distinctly new [TS]

02:46:04   design and you know maybe all three of [TS]

02:46:06   them you know there's somebody came out [TS]

02:46:08   with a report this week that the 7 + 7 s [TS]

02:46:11   or 7 S + + 7s are also going to have [TS]

02:46:16   glass packs it would which I don't want [TS]

02:46:19   to get down this rattle but it's [TS]

02:46:20   nonsense if it's true that the the [TS]

02:46:22   second tier new phones not the super [TS]

02:46:24   phone not the iPhone pro that might be [TS]

02:46:26   you know 1200 or $1400 but like the ones [TS]

02:46:30   that are replacing the seven and seven [TS]

02:46:32   plus if they have class packs they're [TS]

02:46:34   not going to call them the 7s and 7s [TS]

02:46:36   plus because the S thing only applies to [TS]

02:46:38   looks exactly the same as the last years [TS]

02:46:40   but with new new technology if they do [TS]

02:46:43   that they all all three phones would [TS]

02:46:45   have new names but anyway that's a [TS]

02:46:47   different point let's just say Apple [TS]

02:46:51   comes out with exciting new phone and [TS]

02:46:53   Chinese oh and behold Chinese sales [TS]

02:46:55   spiked again and you know there's pretty [TS]

02:46:58   strong correlation that a new design [TS]

02:47:01   equals I've you know apples back in [TS]

02:47:03   China I'll apologize to you admit that [TS]

02:47:06   you were right if it's a noticeable [TS]

02:47:08   spike it gives it it would have once [TS]

02:47:12   have to be a it not just that they'd [TS]

02:47:14   have to be a spike but it would have to [TS]

02:47:15   prove it I think it would have to mean [TS]

02:47:17   that Chinese growth would be even [TS]

02:47:19   greater than the growth everywhere else [TS]

02:47:20   from the sale of this new iPhone right [TS]

02:47:22   that the argument here is that the [TS]

02:47:24   Chinese market is more sensitive both [TS]

02:47:27   ways to the hardware design of a phone [TS]

02:47:30   that when it is new and wow you've got [TS]

02:47:32   the best new iPhone they're even more [TS]

02:47:34   willing to buy it than the rest of the [TS]

02:47:36   world and when they feel like it's stale [TS]

02:47:37   they're more willing to abandon it do [TS]

02:47:39   you feel like that's a fair assessment i [TS]

02:47:42   I do think so I thought you were going [TS]

02:47:44   to say that they'd have to sell even [TS]

02:47:46   more than the iPhone 6 cuz I'm not sure [TS]

02:47:48   I don't know about that that's true [TS]

02:47:49   right yeah cuz there's two parts of one [TS]

02:47:52   yes I I do believe that's the case and I [TS]

02:47:54   do think that iPhone growth in China [TS]

02:47:56   will be greater than in other regions of [TS]

02:47:58   the world when a new when a new design [TS]

02:48:00   comes out I do wonder though something [TS]

02:48:03   that that that I've been thinking a lot [TS]

02:48:05   about and this is this is the real bear [TS]

02:48:07   case for Apple in China is I mean the [TS]

02:48:11   iPhone 6 it wasn't just that it was the [TS]

02:48:14   big phone it was that's also the first [TS]

02:48:16   phone that came out in China Mobile [TS]

02:48:17   which is the the largest carrier in in [TS]

02:48:19   China and at the same time you had the [TS]

02:48:22   continued emergence of of you know a [TS]

02:48:24   middle class that [TS]

02:48:26   that can stretch for a luxury good that [TS]

02:48:29   in the grand scheme of things isn't that [TS]

02:48:31   expensive like I just talked about cars [TS]

02:48:32   right right do I need to buy a phone is [TS]

02:48:34   a fraction of the cost even if you're [TS]

02:48:36   buying the very best phone in the world [TS]

02:48:37   right so my big question though in this [TS]

02:48:41   is the the bear bowl case the best news [TS]

02:48:45   for Apple it would be exactly what I say [TS]

02:48:47   where there's I think regards is gonna [TS]

02:48:49   be a big jump the questions was the [TS]

02:48:50   iPhone 6 a fan you know what I mean [TS]

02:48:53   where new is the thing to get and now [TS]

02:48:56   you know it would like luxury goods go [TS]

02:48:59   through this right right one point it's [TS]

02:49:01   Louie Vuitton then it's Chanel then it's [TS]

02:49:03   like her best and it's Balenciaga or [TS]

02:49:05   whatever might be like is that is it was [TS]

02:49:08   the iPhone 6 affair was just the thing [TS]

02:49:10   to get or I don't think that's the case [TS]

02:49:14   it might be a little bit or is the [TS]

02:49:16   iPhone and Apple a luxury good and an [TS]

02:49:20   aspirational good which I do think it is [TS]

02:49:22   and this matters and matters in China [TS]

02:49:24   matters way more in China than in the US [TS]

02:49:26   and it like the level of conspicuous [TS]

02:49:29   consumption in China is it's kind of [TS]

02:49:31   jarring when you go like you you can be [TS]

02:49:33   in like some run-down part of town or [TS]

02:49:37   messy and dirty and there's stuff flying [TS]

02:49:40   around and there's people walking down [TS]

02:49:41   the road with like Chanel bags like it's [TS]

02:49:43   it's it's very different and matters and [TS]

02:49:46   you pull out your phone you put on the [TS]

02:49:48   table in the coffee shop and yeah even [TS]

02:49:50   if it's in a case you can see what kind [TS]

02:49:52   of phone it is and and it really matters [TS]

02:49:55   and Apple still has a great brand and it [TS]

02:49:57   still means something that it's an Apple [TS]

02:49:59   and I think that's the that's why [TS]

02:50:01   they're still maintaining cells to the [TS]

02:50:04   degree that they are and so I I'm still [TS]

02:50:07   relatively bullish if you want to be [TS]

02:50:10   bearish though would be that oh it was [TS]

02:50:11   just a fad which I don't think is true [TS]

02:50:13   but it's possible but here's my my point [TS]

02:50:15   is that this going back to the software [TS]

02:50:19   being more important than the hardware [TS]

02:50:21   what has you attached to the Apple brand [TS]

02:50:24   has to be the software to it's not just [TS]

02:50:26   that Apple as a company needs to be more [TS]

02:50:28   focused on the software platform but if [TS]

02:50:30   the software software platform isn't [TS]

02:50:32   what's primarily keeping you buying [TS]

02:50:34   iPhones then you're so much less sticky [TS]

02:50:37   like if you really are just learned [TS]

02:50:40   somebody else can I would argue that the [TS]

02:50:43   competition is way closer to iPhone [TS]

02:50:45   quality hardware than they are then [TS]

02:50:48   Android is to being iOS quality software [TS]

02:50:51   like note that that's that's absolutely [TS]

02:50:54   true but in I really do think in China [TS]

02:50:56   and this isn't like a Johnny completely [TS]

02:50:58   observation I've made this point like [TS]

02:51:00   three four years ago that the big [TS]

02:51:03   differentiation for Apple in China has [TS]

02:51:05   always been the brand like that matters [TS]

02:51:08   more and that's something one of Apple's [TS]

02:51:11   actually advantages and something they [TS]

02:51:12   learn with the whole 5c thing is having [TS]

02:51:15   only a high-end brand or a high-end [TS]

02:51:18   phone is a good thing because there is [TS]

02:51:21   no watering down of the brand right yes [TS]

02:51:23   you can have a high-end Samsung there's [TS]

02:51:24   also low end crappy ones floating around [TS]

02:51:26   same thing with with all the other [TS]

02:51:27   Chinese brands the fact that an iPhone [TS]

02:51:30   is always an expensive device is a is [TS]

02:51:34   something that actually helps preserve [TS]

02:51:37   that's always an expensive device or an [TS]

02:51:39   old device right right and so doing what [TS]

02:51:42   it was expensive at some point right [TS]

02:51:44   okay so what about the red iPhone I [TS]

02:51:46   didn't mention that in my article I got [TS]

02:51:48   a whole bunch of well what about the red [TS]

02:51:49   one because the red one is obviously new [TS]

02:51:51   like people can quibble about whether [TS]

02:51:53   the jet-black iPhone looks new but the [TS]

02:51:55   red one is unmistakably new do you think [TS]

02:51:58   the red one the red iPhone 7 will make a [TS]

02:52:00   difference in the second half of this [TS]

02:52:01   financial year it might I think that you [TS]

02:52:05   know what I think Cook was totally right [TS]

02:52:08   to say that there's anticipation for a [TS]

02:52:10   new device which I again I think I think [TS]

02:52:13   that was about China that comment right [TS]

02:52:15   that people are waiting for the new [TS]

02:52:16   device so I it might have an impact but [TS]

02:52:20   I think it will be muted that at this [TS]

02:52:22   point people are waiting and people like [TS]

02:52:24   are super super up-to-date on this stuff [TS]

02:52:27   like the I don't live in China but I [TS]

02:52:32   will just say being here in Taiwan [TS]

02:52:33   like I think rumors are on the nightly [TS]

02:52:35   news oh that's amazing I said well I'm [TS]

02:52:38   I'm laughing because I realized that in [TS]

02:52:41   some circles that's a politically [TS]

02:52:42   charged sentence but I'm also laughing [TS]

02:52:44   at the fact that I'm also laughing at [TS]

02:52:46   the fact that the iPhone rumors are on [TS]

02:52:48   the nightly news [TS]

02:52:49   yeah it's the the pervasiveness end of [TS]

02:52:53   just mobile devices is I mean the u.s. [TS]

02:52:58   is really behind I mean they're behind [TS]

02:52:59   in that everyone because everyone the US [TS]

02:53:02   had a PC the what mobile means in the [TS]

02:53:06   u.s. is all the times between in between [TS]

02:53:10   when you're using your PC right and what [TS]

02:53:12   happened in China is for the vast [TS]

02:53:16   majority of people their first of their [TS]

02:53:18   first computing device is the phone [TS]

02:53:20   right and and so the reason why we chat [TS]

02:53:24   is is what it is it's not just that it [TS]

02:53:27   gobbled up all these services I'm not [TS]

02:53:29   Indian Ragab well up they created them [TS]

02:53:31   but you don't know what can you use [TS]

02:53:32   WeChat from a browser no right noble [TS]

02:53:36   only yeah they have they have an app for [TS]

02:53:40   mac and windows it what's the this is [TS]

02:53:43   actually it's worth downloading because [TS]

02:53:45   I think it's really interesting people [TS]

02:53:47   it drives through the wall like people [TS]

02:53:48   who are using PC's just a present the [TS]

02:53:50   wall but I think if you can understand [TS]

02:53:52   how the palatable mac app works you'll [TS]

02:53:54   start to kind of rock this so what you [TS]

02:53:56   do is you can download the WeChat app [TS]

02:53:59   from like the Mac Apple Store or Mac [TS]

02:54:02   Apple Store the Mac App Store and when [TS]

02:54:04   you launch the app what it does is it uh [TS]

02:54:07   it brings up a much I promotional Mouse [TS]

02:54:10   I should get it so you bring it up and [TS]

02:54:12   it has your picture and you click login [TS]

02:54:14   when you click login you don't actually [TS]

02:54:17   type a username or password it brings up [TS]

02:54:20   a QR code and what you have to do is you [TS]

02:54:22   have to open the WeChat app on your [TS]

02:54:24   phone scan the QR code which I'll do it [TS]

02:54:27   now and then boom you're logged in on [TS]

02:54:29   the desktop because it like it sends it [TS]

02:54:30   up to the WeChat servers that yes this [TS]

02:54:32   is this is the right device and then it [TS]

02:54:34   and then you're logged in it's it's [TS]

02:54:37   honestly worth downloading just to [TS]

02:54:38   experience this because if you're a [TS]

02:54:41   regular PC user and I heard from people [TS]

02:54:43   like oh man I have you tried using it on [TS]

02:54:45   the PC it's terrible what do you mean [TS]

02:54:46   they have a good user experience blah [TS]

02:54:47   blah blah well mainly that app is there [TS]

02:54:51   for old fogies like you and I who still [TS]

02:54:52   want to use a PC but it really gets the [TS]

02:54:57   centrality of mobile like you have to [TS]

02:55:00   use your phone to log in on on the PC [TS]

02:55:02   and it once you grok that I think you [TS]

02:55:05   can kind of start to understand what it [TS]

02:55:07   means that mobile actually be the center [TS]

02:55:09   of everything not to be a peripheral [TS]

02:55:12   alright here's my other thing I want to [TS]

02:55:14   get before we wrap this up and we I [TS]

02:55:15   think we're hitting them on our mark [TS]

02:55:17   here [TS]

02:55:18   [Laughter] [TS]

02:55:20   two hours now three three hours all [TS]

02:55:23   right well we can't go over four I got [TS]

02:55:27   it right [TS]

02:55:27   how do you square this obsession with [TS]

02:55:30   the appearance of the external [TS]

02:55:33   appearance of the phones with the fact [TS]

02:55:35   that it all around the world majority of [TS]

02:55:39   users put their phones in cases but in [TS]

02:55:41   China it's by all accounts is it [TS]

02:55:44   probably the highest rate of people [TS]

02:55:46   putting their phones in cases because [TS]

02:55:48   the resale protecting the rear it's the [TS]

02:55:51   whole thing we know that with the people [TS]

02:55:52   not wanting to use the home button and [TS]

02:55:54   using the accessibility feature to put a [TS]

02:55:56   virtual home button on the screen [TS]

02:55:58   because they don't want to wear out the [TS]

02:55:59   button so that it protects the resale [TS]

02:56:02   value of the phone so if everybody puts [TS]

02:56:04   their phone in a case how do you even [TS]

02:56:06   you know like the red you know let the [TS]

02:56:09   red phone is a perfect example you put [TS]

02:56:10   the red iPhone in a case the button is [TS]

02:56:12   even red so you know way to tell that [TS]

02:56:14   it's a red iPhone uh yeah this is one of [TS]

02:56:17   the reasons why it might be dampened I [TS]

02:56:19   think so there's two there's two aspects [TS]

02:56:23   of Apple it's not just it being a new [TS]

02:56:25   device it's also the fact that it's an [TS]

02:56:27   apple like Apple is a meaningful brand [TS]

02:56:29   it it is status conferring brand so and [TS]

02:56:33   that remains the case and will remain [TS]

02:56:35   the case even if you're you have a case [TS]

02:56:38   it's not like you're worried yes it's [TS]

02:56:40   not like a purse or something where you [TS]

02:56:42   can see across the road that someone has [TS]

02:56:44   a purse you're conveying status not to [TS]

02:56:46   strangers you're conveying status to the [TS]

02:56:48   people you're with and around you so [TS]

02:56:50   when you sit down at the office and you [TS]

02:56:52   pull your phone you put on your desk or [TS]

02:56:53   you're in a coffee shop I said you pull [TS]

02:56:55   it out you can see by you can just even [TS]

02:56:58   if it's in the case you can tell if it's [TS]

02:57:00   a if it's a new phone or not [TS]

02:57:02   interestingly you can't really tell if [TS]

02:57:05   it's a six or if it's a seven but you [TS]

02:57:08   can definitely tell if it's a 5s or or [TS]

02:57:12   six even right and you could tell the [TS]

02:57:13   difference between a and [TS]

02:57:15   for Android and and right right so you [TS]

02:57:18   start the Apple stats you can see that [TS]

02:57:21   it's an iPhone but it's not there's no [TS]

02:57:23   there's no status conferring for newness [TS]

02:57:25   in the fact that I can afford to buy the [TS]

02:57:29   newest phone and I have the the best [TS]

02:57:31   phone and and like why buy it yes if [TS]

02:57:36   you're if you're rich and you can afford [TS]

02:57:37   it and yes by all means buy a new iPhone [TS]

02:57:40   every year but if you're buying an [TS]

02:57:43   iPhone not just because it's an iPhone [TS]

02:57:44   but you want the status that it confers [TS]

02:57:47   on you well why not keep the iPhone 6 [TS]

02:57:50   that looks the exact same as the iPhone [TS]

02:57:51   7 and spend your what little cash you [TS]

02:57:54   have I mean every Chinese rich [TS]

02:57:56   relatively speaking especially in the [TS]

02:57:59   big cities but on an absolute dollar [TS]

02:58:01   basis you know much much less money why [TS]

02:58:04   not spend that money on buying a new [TS]

02:58:06   wallet or something like that and I've [TS]

02:58:08   been thinking about it I actually think [TS]

02:58:09   that the prominent the prominence of [TS]

02:58:12   cases that the or the the puts the word [TS]

02:58:16   on the board but the fact that cases are [TS]

02:58:18   so ubiquitous actually plays against the [TS]

02:58:21   the ways that the iPhone 7 is new [TS]

02:58:24   because you can't see the jet black you [TS]

02:58:27   can't see that it's a red iPhone you [TS]

02:58:31   know the color alone and see that you [TS]

02:58:32   can see the dual camera yeah but that's [TS]

02:58:35   it so there are some changes but it's [TS]

02:58:37   there's it's nowhere near as much I [TS]

02:58:39   happen to think and I feel like one of [TS]

02:58:42   the most fascinating things about that [TS]

02:58:44   there's so much rumor and so much [TS]

02:58:46   speculation about this year's new [TS]

02:58:48   iPhones it's it's clearly a higher pitch [TS]

02:58:50   than usual years because there's this [TS]

02:58:53   every all the rumors are saying that [TS]

02:58:55   it's going to be something new and new [TS]

02:58:56   is more exciting than something that's [TS]

02:58:57   not new and like you said that there on [TS]

02:59:01   the nightly news in Taiwan um but [TS]

02:59:05   despite the fever pitch of these rumors [TS]

02:59:07   that there's something new and we hear [TS]

02:59:08   that it's an edged edge screen so that [TS]

02:59:10   we there's no actual leaks of what it's [TS]

02:59:13   going to look like like that to me like [TS]

02:59:15   you said you didn't lose him over in a [TS]

02:59:16   Richie and I talked about it last week [TS]

02:59:18   like it's almost excruciating reading [TS]

02:59:20   mark durman's stuff at Bloomberg because [TS]

02:59:24   it's entirely written around the central [TS]

02:59:28   point which is that mark [TS]

02:59:29   has no fucking idea what the next iPhone [TS]

02:59:30   looks like none and that's it [TS]

02:59:34   it's really kind of hard to write the [TS]

02:59:36   story where the gist of the story is I [TS]

02:59:39   have no idea what the iPhone next iPhone [TS]

02:59:41   looks like so it's is there's there is a [TS]

02:59:45   little bit I mean recently isn't there [TS]

02:59:46   like there's like some blueprints that [TS]

02:59:47   got out like the vertical camera and [TS]

02:59:49   stuff like that supposedly right but [TS]

02:59:51   they're all but they're not consistent [TS]

02:59:53   yeah so the vertically aligned camera [TS]

02:59:54   but government government did have [TS]

02:59:58   something about that but he [TS]

02:59:58   something about that but he [TS]

03:00:00   he wasn't first though like I don't [TS]

03:00:02   think any of that I don't think that [TS]

03:00:03   vertically aligned cameras came from him [TS]

03:00:04   first I think that plans leaked and then [TS]

03:00:06   he just wrote about him but then he [TS]

03:00:08   wrote that it would it would help the [TS]

03:00:10   iPhone moving the the dual camera from [TS]

03:00:12   horizontal to vertical II aligned would [TS]

03:00:14   to help the iPhone take better pictures [TS]

03:00:15   oh it wouldn't still do lenses the same [TS]

03:00:20   distance from each other it just it just [TS]

03:00:23   changes where they are on the body but [TS]

03:00:25   anyway uh I think that's why anyway [TS]

03:00:29   here's what I think there's my point my [TS]

03:00:30   point is this I think Apple is very much [TS]

03:00:33   aware of how many people put their [TS]

03:00:37   phones in cases and I think they're very [TS]

03:00:39   much aware and I think that part of the [TS]

03:00:41   design of the whatever the next form [TS]

03:00:43   factor for iPhone is is very much [TS]

03:00:45   designed in mind with the fact that it's [TS]

03:00:47   going to be in a case and I think they [TS]

03:00:49   started this with the iPhone 6 because I [TS]

03:00:51   think it's I think it's doing a way that [TS]

03:00:53   they justified to themselves the camera [TS]

03:00:55   bump which is that for most users the [TS]

03:00:57   camera bump is irrelevant because they [TS]

03:00:59   never noticed because it's in a case and [TS]

03:01:00   the case even the thinnest case is [TS]

03:01:02   thicker than the camera bump the camera [TS]

03:01:05   bump is actually a penalty for people [TS]

03:01:06   like me who don't use a case yeah I I [TS]

03:01:10   think that's a great point and the other [TS]

03:01:12   the other thing that I think it's really [TS]

03:01:14   interesting is this idea of this iPhone [TS]

03:01:16   like plus or preneur pro or whatever it [TS]

03:01:18   is that's going to be much more [TS]

03:01:19   expensive to me this is a very easy uh [TS]

03:01:24   it's it's interesting in water specs I [TS]

03:01:25   think it's a pretty optimal path [TS]

03:01:28   actually I think for Apple to grow [TS]

03:01:30   revenue because like theirs they're like [TS]

03:01:36   right now there is no we haven't them [TS]

03:01:39   and tested how high they can go they [TS]

03:01:41   know they can sell a lot at this price [TS]

03:01:43   point with it but the iPhone plus pushed [TS]

03:01:45   it up a hundred dollars and they sold [TS]

03:01:46   ton of um they're selling more even more [TS]

03:01:48   than they expected and this is the third [TS]

03:01:49   year in a row they've had the plus and [TS]

03:01:51   for three years in a row they've under [TS]

03:01:52   produced the plus size like the the plus [TS]

03:01:54   share of the iPhone is actually is [TS]

03:01:57   actually becoming more and more and I'm [TS]

03:02:00   really interested about this sort of new [TS]

03:02:02   even higher tier sort of sort of model [TS]

03:02:06   and I think it is a something that will [TS]

03:02:08   play very well in in the China market I [TS]

03:02:10   mean [TS]

03:02:11   not just uh I think it's a balance right [TS]

03:02:15   so you don't want to ruin the brand [TS]

03:02:16   value of the seven 600 700 700 ollar [TS]

03:02:20   phone I mean once you you are getting [TS]

03:02:23   pretty darn expensive once you're going [TS]

03:02:26   beyond that but the implication of being [TS]

03:02:29   going beyond that is the sort of status [TS]

03:02:31   and visibility that comes from having [TS]

03:02:33   that is even greater and where do you [TS]

03:02:36   strike the balance between being [TS]

03:02:38   accessible to enough people versus [TS]

03:02:40   getting in a iPhone 5c situation where [TS]

03:02:43   it's kind of like the the there was a a [TS]

03:02:46   gulf between or in perception because [TS]

03:02:49   you're clearly buying the cheap iPhone [TS]

03:02:50   right that's going to be very very [TS]

03:02:52   interesting to see how that plays out [TS]

03:02:53   and how how far they try to push it yeah [TS]

03:02:56   I think that if it's true and Rene was [TS]

03:02:59   talking about this last week where Rene [TS]

03:03:01   seems pretty sold on the idea that the [TS]

03:03:05   successors to the 7s and 7s bar 7 and 7 [TS]

03:03:09   and 7 plus god it's I get the S is wrong [TS]

03:03:13   whether they call it the 7s or they call [TS]

03:03:15   it the iPhone 8 or something maybe if [TS]

03:03:18   it's even newer but that there will be [TS]

03:03:20   at this you know the same price points [TS]

03:03:21   as the 7 and 7 plus today that this [TS]

03:03:24   iPhone Pro or whatever you want to call [TS]

03:03:26   it is going to be significantly more [TS]

03:03:28   expensive um I think that's the only way [TS]

03:03:31   to do it it's the only way that makes [TS]

03:03:32   sense and I feel like a lot of times you [TS]

03:03:34   can kind of answer like the the [TS]

03:03:37   Kremlinology of Apple is is it going to [TS]

03:03:39   cause people to lose their shit the [TS]

03:03:41   moment it's announced and like I'd say [TS]

03:03:44   let's say they come out with let's say [TS]

03:03:46   they come out with a replacement for the [TS]

03:03:49   7 and the 7 plus to call it the 7s and [TS]

03:03:52   7s plus just for the sake of this [TS]

03:03:54   discussion at the same price points and [TS]

03:03:56   it has reasonably you know what you [TS]

03:03:58   expect from Apple year-over-year [TS]

03:03:59   technology wise the GPU graph keeps [TS]

03:04:02   going up on the hockey stick the camera [TS]

03:04:04   has x y&z that it does better and you [TS]

03:04:07   can take a side by side picture with the [TS]

03:04:09   year-old camera and you can see things [TS]

03:04:10   that are better in the new one [TS]

03:04:13   better battery life maybe you know just [TS]

03:04:15   typical things like that and they have [TS]

03:04:17   this phone that is a jaw-dropping [TS]

03:04:19   physical form factor and let's say the [TS]

03:04:21   starting price is $1,500 [TS]

03:04:24   like people would lose their fuckin shit [TS]

03:04:26   if all of a sudden in this market of [TS]

03:04:29   Apple and these Samsung and all these [TS]

03:04:31   super phones that are in the 700 800 [TS]

03:04:33   dollar range and Apple just doubles the [TS]

03:04:34   price for this new top tier and sells a [TS]

03:04:37   fifteen or sixteen hundred dollar [TS]

03:04:39   starting point [TS]

03:04:40   iPhone would people lose their shit [TS]

03:04:44   absolutely now the other tricky Apple [TS]

03:04:46   thing that they could be doing is [TS]

03:04:47   seeding this idea of a higher than [TS]

03:04:51   thousand dollar starting point and then [TS]

03:04:53   just making the new design at the at the [TS]

03:04:56   existing starting points that the whole [TS]

03:04:57   thing is some kind of ruse and that [TS]

03:04:59   everybody thinks fears that this new [TS]

03:05:00   phone is going to be super expensive and [TS]

03:05:02   it turns out to be you know the same [TS]

03:05:05   prices the current ones because remember [TS]

03:05:06   like that famously the iPad yes leaked [TS]

03:05:10   is a thousand dollars and it started [TS]

03:05:12   like $4.99 that was amazing cuz it works [TS]

03:05:15   so well like people were blown away at [TS]

03:05:19   how inexpensive this device right [TS]

03:05:21   because that did and it set the [TS]

03:05:23   expectations right Jobs had talked it up [TS]

03:05:25   sufficiently talked it up during the [TS]

03:05:27   keynote lounging in his nice little [TS]

03:05:29   chair that it easily sounded like he was [TS]

03:05:32   going to say this thing is so freakin [TS]

03:05:34   great you're gonna love spending $1000 [TS]

03:05:36   on this and it was half the price but [TS]

03:05:38   anyway the I could see them doing it [TS]

03:05:40   both ways I would have to say that in [TS]

03:05:41   the post Steve Jobs world it's more [TS]

03:05:43   likely that they're going to sell it for [TS]

03:05:44   $1,500 yeah maybe that that people would [TS]

03:05:48   definitely lose their minds on that the [TS]

03:05:50   other thing that's interesting I wonder [TS]

03:05:52   if the high end is there's going to be [TS]

03:05:53   do you think it'll be like a pencil sort [TS]

03:05:55   of thing like the the Samsung Note sort [TS]

03:05:59   under that would be a way to [TS]

03:06:00   differentiate it and call it pro and [TS]

03:06:02   kind of match the the iPad pro I don't [TS]

03:06:04   know maming I don't know I can't see [TS]

03:06:06   them doing a pencil for it or if they [TS]

03:06:08   did it would just be the regular pencil [TS]

03:06:09   right I don't get where it has pencil [TS]

03:06:13   support you as opposed to having [TS]

03:06:14   something built in yeah it could be it [TS]

03:06:17   could be the pencil I don't know I mean [TS]

03:06:18   it obviously the pencil obviousl support [TS]

03:06:21   in the device obviously costs enough [TS]

03:06:23   money that they didn't put it in the [TS]

03:06:25   quote-unquote new iPad nine point seven [TS]

03:06:28   inch [TS]

03:06:29   you know that always also it's a very [TS]

03:06:31   strong differentiator to I'm a very [TS]

03:06:32   queer thing that this more expensive [TS]

03:06:35   device does this this cheaper device [TS]

03:06:36   does not I could see them tossing if [TS]

03:06:39   they start at like fourteen fifteen [TS]

03:06:41   sixteen hundred dollars I could see them [TS]

03:06:42   putting air putts in the box yeah that's [TS]

03:06:46   I mean I that would blow my it would [TS]

03:06:48   blow my mind it was fifty hundred [TS]

03:06:49   dollars i guy was as thing like maybe [TS]

03:06:51   like a thousand or sores something like [TS]

03:06:53   that maybe you're right maybe maybe [TS]

03:06:55   they'll go all out I think it makes a [TS]

03:06:57   lot more sense in fact I think if you're [TS]

03:06:59   gonna go for it go for it well here's my [TS]

03:07:01   argument I've been thinking about this [TS]

03:07:02   an awful lot is if it's only a hundred [TS]

03:07:04   dollars more expensive like going from [TS]

03:07:05   the 7 to the 7 plus like getting [TS]

03:07:08   plus-sized with the otherwise same [TS]

03:07:10   components is a hundred dollar upgrade [TS]

03:07:11   right or is it a little more than [TS]

03:07:13   hundred a hundred and twenty uh yeah [TS]

03:07:14   yeah they did raise the price and I [TS]

03:07:16   think that was a lesson for Apple too [TS]

03:07:18   they raised the price and it didn't [TS]

03:07:19   matter they actually sold even more [TS]

03:07:22   pluses this year than than last year [TS]

03:07:23   right I don't really speaking I think it [TS]

03:07:26   has to be so much more expensive that it [TS]

03:07:27   keeps people from buying it that people [TS]

03:07:29   say I can I'm not there's no way I'm [TS]

03:07:31   buying I love it that looks amazing but [TS]

03:07:32   I'm not spending sixteen hundred dollars [TS]

03:07:34   on an iPhone and and therefore it can [TS]

03:07:37   ship in much lower quantities yeah [TS]

03:07:41   because if it's only a hundred dollars [TS]

03:07:42   more everybody would buy it everybody [TS]

03:07:44   not everybody but an enormous number of [TS]

03:07:47   people who would have otherwise but the [TS]

03:07:50   second level the one that's the new [TS]

03:07:52   phones that are level down they're all [TS]

03:07:54   just going to get the one that's more [TS]

03:07:55   expensive it can't just be $100 more [TS]

03:07:57   expensive if they're also doing if [TS]

03:07:59   they're really doing three new phones [TS]

03:08:02   yeah yeah the Apple it's really the [TS]

03:08:05   whole Apple pricing curve is really [TS]

03:08:06   fascinating because again it's a [TS]

03:08:08   monopoly right there you if you want iOS [TS]

03:08:11   you only have one choice so the optimal [TS]

03:08:15   where does Apple sign the right line [TS]

03:08:18   between uh you know maximizing [TS]

03:08:22   maximizing profit which by the way that [TS]

03:08:24   like the maximizing profit price is [TS]

03:08:26   always going to be higher than what it [TS]

03:08:29   would be in a more competitive well [TS]

03:08:31   obviously you're gonna sell fewer [TS]

03:08:34   devices but your your your total profits [TS]

03:08:35   gonna be more uh yet but they've your [TS]

03:08:37   they've never as I said before they've [TS]

03:08:40   never really pushed the high end but [TS]

03:08:41   you're right with the plus they are [TS]

03:08:43   did push it up 100 and they pushed up [TS]

03:08:44   another $30 and it has not only in its [TS]

03:08:49   increased sales it hasn't decreased them [TS]

03:08:51   which is like how much more Headroom [TS]

03:08:53   might they have it might be a lot and I [TS]

03:08:55   think it makes a lot of the more I think [TS]

03:08:57   about it the more I think it's going to [TS]

03:08:58   be you know who knows or maybe be $2,000 [TS]

03:09:01   I don't know maybe be crazy expensive [TS]

03:09:02   you know because they're going to put [TS]

03:09:04   stuff into it that they cannot they [TS]

03:09:06   can't put in a $700 phone and or you [TS]

03:09:10   know cost wise and or they simply cannot [TS]

03:09:13   make in sufficient quantity there's you [TS]

03:09:15   know they sold [TS]

03:09:15   I think 77 million phones in the holiday [TS]

03:09:18   quarter last year something like that [TS]

03:09:20   seventy some million what if there's [TS]

03:09:23   some kind of cool new technology but [TS]

03:09:25   they can only reasonably expect to get [TS]

03:09:27   maybe five million of them in the first [TS]

03:09:29   quarter [TS]

03:09:29   you know then they'd have to they can [TS]

03:09:32   either not make the device and and stick [TS]

03:09:35   to what they can make in in quantities [TS]

03:09:38   like 70 million or they could price the [TS]

03:09:41   device at a point where five million [TS]

03:09:43   would be closer to the where supply and [TS]

03:09:46   demand me yeah if that or arrow could [TS]

03:09:50   just be that they they want to make more [TS]

03:09:51   money [TS]

03:09:51   I mean well they remember to this is the [TS]

03:09:53   company that's sold $20,000 gold Apple [TS]

03:09:56   watches I mean I'm excited you know and [TS]

03:09:59   they still you know they have the [TS]

03:10:00   addition now I mean and you know if they [TS]

03:10:02   called it the iPhone addition and they [TS]

03:10:04   maybe they'll charge $2,500 for it I [TS]

03:10:06   don't know and maybe will be ceramic I [TS]

03:10:08   mean I remember the I can remember what [TS]

03:10:11   his name is the great guy who writes [TS]

03:10:12   those brilliant konishiki articles yeah [TS]

03:10:14   he had a shot down the whole ceramic [TS]

03:10:16   iPhone thing and you know a big part of [TS]

03:10:19   his point was about was about volume and [TS]

03:10:20   like there's no way if they were [TS]

03:10:22   actually gonna do is add volume one and [TS]

03:10:24   be almost impossible but to like we [TS]

03:10:26   would definitely know about it uh but if [TS]

03:10:28   it's a women in addition $1500 phone [TS]

03:10:33   well Apple could probably pull that off [TS]

03:10:35   much more easily if they're already [TS]

03:10:37   making what's already making the watch [TS]

03:10:38   right it's not even it could be [TS]

03:10:40   something that sells in so few [TS]

03:10:42   quantities because it has to because [TS]

03:10:43   like maybe it's ceramics maybe it's [TS]

03:10:45   these OLED screens whatever else the [TS]

03:10:47   thing they have I don't know what if it [TS]

03:10:49   cost three thousand dollars and this axe [TS]

03:10:52   the Apple 2 Edition might so my wife my [TS]

03:10:53   wife actually has it uh it's it looks [TS]

03:10:55   good I think it will [TS]

03:10:56   but I mean better than the the gold ones [TS]

03:10:59   just looked wrong yeah I say I agree but [TS]

03:11:02   the the white ceramic with its it looks [TS]

03:11:05   really really good [TS]

03:11:06   and it pairs with all the straps and it [TS]

03:11:08   looks fantastic a phone that looks like [TS]

03:11:10   that would be would be it'd be hot yeah [TS]

03:11:14   it looks somehow to me I've always been [TS]

03:11:16   a fan of the black phones and to me I [TS]

03:11:19   just don't like the way that the black [TS]

03:11:21   rectangle of the screen looks surrounded [TS]

03:11:24   by a white bezel I don't like it on iPad [TS]

03:11:26   I just don't it's a personal thing [TS]

03:11:28   whereas on that the edition watch the [TS]

03:11:31   way that the black and the white [TS]

03:11:32   integrate because it's not really a [TS]

03:11:34   black rectangle surrounded by white it's [TS]

03:11:36   that black sapphire piece on top with [TS]

03:11:38   the black screen it rice really good [TS]

03:11:41   yeah it may just the watch usually kind [TS]

03:11:44   of has an offset color for the watch [TS]

03:11:46   face anyways yeah it's uh maybe Fisher [TS]

03:11:48   sort of expectations for the wrist [TS]

03:11:50   anyway so watch this become tight [TS]

03:11:53   Business Insider to headline tomorrow [TS]

03:11:55   John Gruber says iPhone edition set cost [TS]

03:11:58   three thousand dollars now all right [TS]

03:12:01   I'm literally nobody is ever I have no [TS]

03:12:04   source on this whatsoever I'm just [TS]

03:12:06   speculating I'm just saying it wouldn't [TS]

03:12:08   shock me and I would relish the I would [TS]

03:12:12   just love the the post keynote reaction [TS]

03:12:15   and III I mean I'm talking myself into [TS]

03:12:19   my own self created rumor but this idea [TS]

03:12:21   of it being a being ceramic being a [TS]

03:12:24   different material yeah I think would [TS]

03:12:25   really help them and know what off it is [TS]

03:12:28   anybody talking about the material of [TS]

03:12:30   the phone I don't think that they are [TS]

03:12:31   and they're talking about glass backs [TS]

03:12:33   but the glass back rumor seems to be [TS]

03:12:35   about the the you know regular level new [TS]

03:12:38   iPhones right it's a way to get away [TS]

03:12:40   with selling again I think like I think [TS]

03:12:42   this high-end phone is gonna like be it [TS]

03:12:44   would be a huge hit in China for all [TS]

03:12:46   these status sort of conferring reasons [TS]

03:12:47   I just I just discussed and this is a [TS]

03:12:50   way to get away with that without that I [TS]

03:12:53   was thinking about the whole pencil [TS]

03:12:54   thing right and I don't think Apple [TS]

03:12:56   wants to do that on the phone either I [TS]

03:12:57   should think about the what is going to [TS]

03:12:58   be the what's going to be the cell to [TS]

03:13:01   justify it being so much more expensive [TS]

03:13:04   whereas if it's a completely different [TS]

03:13:05   material uh in the case you know I think [TS]

03:13:09   that's [TS]

03:13:10   you could especially since they already [TS]

03:13:12   set the precedent with the watch right [TS]

03:13:13   how much does it cost like 1200 or [TS]

03:13:15   something so it's it's it's four times [TS]

03:13:17   as much as the as the base watch and [TS]

03:13:19   much more a much more reasonable spread [TS]

03:13:22   in price I would say than the the [TS]

03:13:24   original edition to say the least and [TS]

03:13:26   you could see a similar thing I think [TS]

03:13:29   that it would be a thing they could pull [TS]

03:13:30   that off people would be Wes they would [TS]

03:13:32   lose their shit they would loot with [TS]

03:13:34   Cayman square properly they would lose [TS]

03:13:36   their shit because the price is so high [TS]

03:13:38   but it would be like how on earth are [TS]

03:13:41   they can even contemplate just fine it's [TS]

03:13:43   like wow they actually actually went [TS]

03:13:45   there as opposed to I don't understand [TS]

03:13:47   this doesn't make any sense right and [TS]

03:13:48   then I guarantee you that the thing I've [TS]

03:13:51   cited it to I think it's such a lovely [TS]

03:13:52   lovely a little quote but the Andy [TS]

03:13:56   Warhol quote about coke being like the [TS]

03:13:59   greatest American product because [TS]

03:14:00   there's just one type of coke and it's [TS]

03:14:02   the best it's the best soda and you know [TS]

03:14:06   that the bum on the street drinks the [TS]

03:14:07   exact same coke that the president [TS]

03:14:09   drinks that Liz Taylor drinks nobody [TS]

03:14:11   else you know nobody can get a better [TS]

03:14:12   coke and like with the Apple watch I got [TS]

03:14:18   so much stuff from readers who are like [TS]

03:14:19   this is a complete violation of Apple's [TS]

03:14:21   principles because apples always been [TS]

03:14:22   like coke in that regard where you can [TS]

03:14:24   get the you know you can get the best [TS]

03:14:27   phone in the world and you pay the same [TS]

03:14:29   that people buy for other phones you [TS]

03:14:31   know president United States can't get a [TS]

03:14:33   better cell phone than then you can but [TS]

03:14:35   if you're going to sell it for three or [TS]

03:14:36   four thousand dollars and all of a [TS]

03:14:38   sudden you're you know cutting people [TS]

03:14:40   off from the best but trust me happily [TS]

03:14:43   but apples already no crossed that well [TS]

03:14:46   no but they didn't though because the [TS]

03:14:47   low-end watch was still the same you [TS]

03:14:49   could get the exact same functionality [TS]

03:14:51   and that because Apple at the end of day [TS]

03:14:53   is a software company right and and but [TS]

03:14:55   this is so interesting is what if maybe [TS]

03:14:59   this high-end phone there are no other [TS]

03:15:01   differences right like maybe the [TS]

03:15:03   hardware is completely the same it's [TS]

03:15:04   just material and what whether because [TS]

03:15:06   the problem is Apple's market in China [TS]

03:15:08   is just different than the rest of the [TS]

03:15:10   world so again I think if they do this I [TS]

03:15:13   really think it's a China thing because [TS]

03:15:14   in China they are competing on brand in [TS]

03:15:17   status so in that case you don't want to [TS]

03:15:20   be Andy Warhol you don't want to be [TS]

03:15:22   anywhere else coke you want to be able [TS]

03:15:23   to [TS]

03:15:24   create a special coke that people will [TS]

03:15:26   pay lots of money to get my house they [TS]

03:15:29   did I fired swear that circle [TS]

03:15:31   I've tossed the I've tossed it out we're [TS]

03:15:33   defending even obviously was a mistake I [TS]

03:15:36   don't think it was wrong to try though [TS]

03:15:38   with the solid gold edition' and I think [TS]

03:15:40   the ceramic is a terrific second stab at [TS]

03:15:45   the same idea but to me it's not that [TS]

03:15:48   you're getting a better coke it's the [TS]

03:15:49   exactly gig you said like you know [TS]

03:15:51   because of the software and because the [TS]

03:15:53   CPU is the same and everything it's more [TS]

03:15:55   like drinking your coke out of a very [TS]

03:15:56   fancy goblet as opposed I exactly I'm on [TS]

03:15:59   the street is drinking it out of the can [TS]

03:16:01   it's just both getting the same coke but [TS]

03:16:03   the person drinking it out of the you [TS]

03:16:06   know gold rimmed goblet is you know paid [TS]

03:16:09   for the rapper one thing that would be [TS]

03:16:11   different would be the display because [TS]

03:16:12   every all the rumors point to to the you [TS]

03:16:16   know the to regular ought new iPhones [TS]

03:16:17   having the same size 4.7 and 5.5 inch [TS]

03:16:20   displays and the 5.8 inch super fancy [TS]

03:16:24   you know edge to edge display would be [TS]

03:16:26   on the new one but I wouldn't be [TS]

03:16:28   surprised if it as the exact same system [TS]

03:16:29   on a chip and same RAM and same storage [TS]

03:16:31   and stuff like that [TS]

03:16:32   well III yeah I may be there so yeah I [TS]

03:16:35   don't know right I see I've always been [TS]

03:16:37   skeptical of the 7s and 7s plus having [TS]

03:16:41   the same four factor as a seven there [TS]

03:16:43   being a new form factor at the very high [TS]

03:16:45   end because we already saw how that [TS]

03:16:47   plays out with with the the 5c it's like [TS]

03:16:49   it it's well I didn't say same form [TS]

03:16:52   factor and the rumors don't say same [TS]

03:16:53   form factor the rumors just say same [TS]

03:16:55   screen sizes got it oh yeah yeah we'll [TS]

03:16:59   see I mean I do this is pure speculation [TS]

03:17:02   as I think we said the beginning we [TS]

03:17:04   would say again I do completely making [TS]

03:17:06   this stuff up uh but I yeah it seems [TS]

03:17:08   just seem to make much more sense to me [TS]

03:17:10   that the only differentiation being [TS]

03:17:12   materials but maybe you're right maybe [TS]

03:17:14   maybe it's bigger and bigger is better [TS]

03:17:16   in China is also will note I mean this [TS]

03:17:19   the people you can care about getting [TS]

03:17:23   like a small form-factor like the se [TS]

03:17:25   phone if you're not using your phone for [TS]

03:17:27   everything right that that almost comes [TS]

03:17:29   with the presumption that you're using a [TS]

03:17:31   PC regularly if you're or an iPad or [TS]

03:17:33   whatever if you want a smaller phone if [TS]

03:17:36   the phone is actually [TS]

03:17:38   what you use all the time and it's the [TS]

03:17:40   key to your life and everything that you [TS]

03:17:41   do both inside the house and outside the [TS]

03:17:43   house you want the bigger if you want a [TS]

03:17:45   bigger screen like there's just no [TS]

03:17:46   there's no ifs ands or buts about it [TS]

03:17:48   all right Ben Thompson the Todd Vaziri [TS]

03:17:51   is going to be very happy Todd Vaziri is [TS]

03:17:54   the talk show listener who periodically [TS]

03:17:56   charts episode lengths over time but is [TS]

03:18:00   usually whenever I post a long episode [TS]

03:18:03   usually he usually deems me I thought [TS]

03:18:05   just a thumbs up [TS]

03:18:06   no no context no reference I just get it [TS]

03:18:08   I get a thumbs up from todd Vaziri [TS]

03:18:11   that's buddy I predict this will be a [TS]

03:18:13   thumbs up episode everybody can read you [TS]

03:18:15   and your your fine work at strattera [TS]

03:18:19   just this search for Ben Thompson on [TS]

03:18:21   Google for Ben Thompson wait I think [TS]

03:18:24   what the first times eyes on I [TS]

03:18:25   misspelled search a curry and I think I [TS]

03:18:27   went and bought the misspelled domain [TS]

03:18:30   and I spelled it wrong and then I [TS]

03:18:32   directed it to my site yeah just to [TS]

03:18:34   prevent on something you can't go wrong [TS]

03:18:35   and we've got at Ben Thompson on Twitter [TS]

03:18:38   a fine Twitter account and then there's [TS]

03:18:39   also your no tech Ben Twitter account [TS]

03:18:42   where you tweet about the NBA who ya [TS]

03:18:45   thinks going to win that NBA this year [TS]

03:18:47   Oh Warriors alright I think they're the [TS]

03:18:50   very heavy favorite Sunday night it [TS]

03:18:53   would be amazing and phenomenal if if [TS]

03:18:55   the Cavs rate will not come off but I [TS]

03:18:56   mean I think they have to be the oops [TS]

03:18:58   they have to be the very heavy favorites [TS]

03:18:59   yeah what's going on with the Spurs why [TS]

03:19:01   this first struggling well the problem [TS]

03:19:04   the problem the Spurs at a very high [TS]

03:19:07   level is they don't have very dynamic [TS]

03:19:08   guard play because their guards got old [TS]

03:19:10   and now Tony Parker's injured which is [TS]

03:19:12   very sad but the I think another problem [TS]

03:19:14   is the Spurs system is so their system [TS]

03:19:18   is so amazing and everyone plays well [TS]

03:19:20   and they always have amazing bench units [TS]

03:19:22   and I think a lot of the reason in the [TS]

03:19:24   regular season they're just better [TS]

03:19:25   prepared and deeper than all the other [TS]

03:19:27   teams so they just win lots of games [TS]

03:19:29   because of the system the problem is [TS]

03:19:31   when you get to the playoffs the [TS]

03:19:33   rotations become shorter you play fewer [TS]

03:19:35   players sometimes you play too few like [TS]

03:19:37   I think the Spurs won last night because [TS]

03:19:39   the Rockets just got too tired they only [TS]

03:19:41   played seven people right so some [TS]

03:19:42   players but once you have the playoffs [TS]

03:19:44   the it's it's not the median versus the [TS]

03:19:48   median where's the regular season it's [TS]

03:19:49   kind of like the system in the play [TS]

03:19:51   it's the best versus the best you're [TS]

03:19:52   playing your best guys they're playing [TS]

03:19:53   more minutes [TS]

03:19:54   you're expressly game planning for your [TS]

03:19:56   opponent attacking their weaknesses and [TS]

03:19:58   picking on them again and again and [TS]

03:19:59   again and so the playoffs are just so [TS]

03:20:01   very different than regular season that [TS]

03:20:03   I think they have a hard time going up [TS]

03:20:05   to another level because they're already [TS]

03:20:07   at such a high level yeah the intensity [TS]

03:20:09   is so much higher that it tends to keep [TS]

03:20:11   the games closer and then you get in a [TS]

03:20:13   fourth quarter and it really just comes [TS]

03:20:14   down to you know your best five or six [TS]

03:20:16   against the other best five or six yeah [TS]

03:20:18   in just the whole game because a lot of [TS]

03:20:20   Spurs in the regular season in like that [TS]

03:20:22   second and fourth quarter when the bench [TS]

03:20:23   units are in they'll often blow the game [TS]

03:20:25   open yeah but in the in the playoffs the [TS]

03:20:28   those time periods are very very short [TS]

03:20:31   so I mean this spurt the Spurs are [TS]

03:20:33   amazing they they've won four or five [TS]

03:20:35   titles people think five titles in the [TS]

03:20:38   last you know whatever number of years [TS]

03:20:40   the NBA it's unbelievably difficult to [TS]

03:20:42   win a title like four teams account for [TS]

03:20:44   like 70% of all the titles because it [TS]

03:20:48   just it's so dependent on having the [TS]

03:20:50   best player that a best player or [TS]

03:20:53   collection of best players just [TS]

03:20:54   dominates for for for a long time right [TS]

03:20:57   but the Spurs that have also in that [TS]

03:20:59   time period they've won a lot they've [TS]

03:21:00   also lost a lot even when the higher [TS]

03:21:02   seed and I think it's because of this [TS]

03:21:06   they're great they perform at such a [TS]

03:21:08   high level with such consistency that [TS]

03:21:10   they dominate the regular season again [TS]

03:21:12   and again but that is less meaningful in [TS]

03:21:15   a playoff context do you think the [TS]

03:21:17   Warriors lose a game before the finals [TS]

03:21:19   uh [TS]

03:21:21   I don't if I uh I think it would I take [TS]

03:21:28   an injury or something somebody's going [TS]

03:21:29   to somebody would have to get in the way [TS]

03:21:31   they're playing now there's no one in [TS]

03:21:32   the West who's going to win a game from [TS]

03:21:33   yeah they're the probably the best bet [TS]

03:21:37   is Houston gets there and they just make [TS]

03:21:39   like thirty threes in a game right um [TS]

03:21:41   and it just just through sheer shooting [TS]

03:21:45   so I think it'd be a reasonable bet um [TS]

03:21:48   but yeah there was that game a few [TS]

03:21:50   months ago yeah again the regular season [TS]

03:21:51   so it'll can't take too much from it but [TS]

03:21:53   where the Spurs jumped out like a twenty [TS]

03:21:55   five to three weed on the Warriors and [TS]

03:21:57   the Warriors ended up winning by like [TS]

03:21:59   fifteen that's right it that it was like [TS]

03:22:02   is just the morale it had to be [TS]

03:22:03   demoralizing for [TS]

03:22:04   is demoralizing as a vassal fast like [TS]

03:22:06   yeah that's it's over all right I look [TS]

03:22:09   forward to seeing you next month in [TS]

03:22:12   person yes I will I will see you soon [TS]