The Talk Show

00:00:00 ◼   ► this is the talk show with John Gruber

00:00:02 ◼   ► on John Gruber your host my special

00:00:04 ◼   ► guest this week is John Smoltz you

00:00:08 ◼   ► should do that again

00:00:09 ◼   ► do yourself an impression that's not

00:00:11 ◼   ► really a zelda I can't do is element

00:00:13 ◼   ► impression really i'm sort of just doing

00:00:15 ◼   ► a very like what he did is he just

00:00:17 ◼   ► instantly and naturally did like a very

00:00:20 ◼   ► professional introduction right off the

00:00:22 ◼   ► top of his head

00:00:23 ◼   ► you know I can't do it and I don't do

00:00:25 ◼   ► impressions and and development has such

00:00:27 ◼   ► a great voice my god I told me the end

00:00:28 ◼   ► of the show it's like like voices on

00:00:31 ◼   ► podcasts are like fonts for reading and

00:00:33 ◼   ► like his his voice font is just so great

00:00:36 ◼   ► it's got like this just incredibly rich

00:00:39 ◼   ► voice that i do not know ya sa unlike

00:00:43 ◼   ► both of us

00:00:46 ◼   ► you got the big got the big backpage

00:00:49 ◼   ► column and in Macworld i did this we get

00:00:51 ◼   ► something for it did I think its new

00:00:53 ◼   ► right yeah that's the februari times the

00:00:57 ◼   ► fairies pile up from issue which i

00:00:59 ◼   ► believe is the latest i always get them

00:01:01 ◼   ► i always get them later

00:01:02 ◼   ► I'm always like the last person to get

00:01:04 ◼   ► them for some reason and I and people I

00:01:07 ◼   ► get confused because I feel like here's

00:01:10 ◼   ► I've got two of them here in front of me

00:01:11 ◼   ► and the covers are very similar their

00:01:13 ◼   ► white covers with red macworld and fonts

00:01:17 ◼   ► and they both have pictures of white

00:01:18 ◼   ► ipods on the front one of them is

00:01:21 ◼   ► februari 2013 with one's November 2012

00:01:24 ◼   ► november two thousand six but anyway

00:01:27 ◼   ► it's the februari 1i like your little

00:01:28 ◼   ► blurb on the very nice website every

00:01:30 ◼   ► told people to go to the newsstand to

00:01:32 ◼   ► read that many wrote airport where do

00:01:35 ◼   ► people buy magazines i don't know where

00:01:38 ◼   ► do you used to be you can buy them

00:01:39 ◼   ► everywhere it's funny cause it made me

00:01:41 ◼   ► laugh though because I did realize that

00:01:42 ◼   ► that was thinking about i was like

00:01:44 ◼   ► thinking your time telling people to go

00:01:45 ◼   ► out and buy the magazine where the heck

00:01:47 ◼   ► are they gonna going to drive to the

00:01:48 ◼   ► airport if I if I didn't have a

00:01:51 ◼   ► subscription in that world i'm not sure

00:01:53 ◼   ► where I would go

00:01:54 ◼   ► yeah addicts barnes and noble I can't

00:01:56 ◼   ► think what magazine yeah i mean those

00:01:57 ◼   ► places do but bars closed

00:02:00 ◼   ► we're borders and close so in into coma

00:02:04 ◼   ► I don't think I mean other than used was

00:02:06 ◼   ► a great used bookstores but other than

00:02:07 ◼   ► used bookstores we can't buy a book now

00:02:11 ◼   ► there's no use magazine stores

00:02:12 ◼   ► yeah Peter like that i think about it

00:02:16 ◼   ► yesterday the moments are that is Yeah

00:02:18 ◼   ► Yeah right student like you don't want

00:02:20 ◼   ► to ask for you don't want to go there

00:02:21 ◼   ► don't go into those places but the DJ

00:02:26 ◼   ► it's funny though because your column on

00:02:28 ◼   ► this was this the februari 2013 issue

00:02:30 ◼   ► America and it's not online yet is that

00:02:32 ◼   ► right yeah I always get so confused when

00:02:33 ◼   ► I don't even do they even but what right

00:02:35 ◼   ► what goes on light when I don't know

00:02:38 ◼   ► what the deal is frankly what I don't

00:02:40 ◼   ► think your thing is it online though is

00:02:41 ◼   ► not now i know i'm almost positive that

00:02:44 ◼   ► it is not i look forward to and and but

00:02:47 ◼   ► it's I think they eventually do that

00:02:48 ◼   ► though it's perfectly time though

00:02:50 ◼   ► because i feel like its it that the the

00:02:53 ◼   ► headline says it all why Apple drives

00:02:55 ◼   ► people crazy and which is which is what

00:02:57 ◼   ► ya a from the last time you were on the

00:03:00 ◼   ► show because we were I asked you about

00:03:02 ◼   ► it and I feel like it's really come up

00:03:04 ◼   ► again this week all over the place like

00:03:09 ◼   ► I feel like everybody don't know it's

00:03:11 ◼   ► like this this pre earning say because

00:03:14 ◼   ► what it's a week from today when apples

00:03:15 ◼   ► earnings coming yes

00:03:16 ◼   ► one week from today or winter or is it

00:03:19 ◼   ► wednesdays usually Wednesday or Tuesday

00:03:21 ◼   ► or Wednesday right well it'll be next

00:03:23 ◼   ► what's next what's your middle of next

00:03:24 ◼   ► week 17 things sometime next week either

00:03:27 ◼   ► wednesday or thursday i think that Apple

00:03:29 ◼   ► do it and I think that's part of it i

00:03:31 ◼   ► think it's partly because we're one week

00:03:32 ◼   ► out from their earnings and everybody's

00:03:34 ◼   ► piling on but there is there's like this

00:03:37 ◼   ► the the collective craziness that Apple

00:03:41 ◼   ► drives people to sanity and stupidity

00:03:44 ◼   ► and and just you know to turning off of

00:03:47 ◼   ► frontal lobe is it i get a peek forever

00:03:50 ◼   ► I feel this week I maybe i'm just

00:03:52 ◼   ► sensitive to it maybe it's a wonderful

00:03:54 ◼   ► start looking for that I completely

00:03:55 ◼   ► right

00:03:56 ◼   ► I think just just craziness that our

00:03:58 ◼   ► craziness but I don't want to ask you to

00:04:02 ◼   ► do a a reading of your column but what

00:04:06 ◼   ► is that can you restate it though can

00:04:07 ◼   ► you give the gist of it of your argument

00:04:10 ◼   ► of what drives what about Apple drives

00:04:12 ◼   ► people crazy

00:04:13 ◼   ► well and I feel like they're there's a

00:04:16 ◼   ► lot of reasons that going to and there's

00:04:17 ◼   ► a lot of things that factors that go

00:04:19 ◼   ► into this and I was only able to because

00:04:20 ◼   ► of because of the size constraints of

00:04:23 ◼   ► the back page only able to go into some

00:04:26 ◼   ► of them but a lot of it was one of the

00:04:31 ◼   ► factors i talked about was this sort of

00:04:33 ◼   ► checklist mentality that people to

00:04:34 ◼   ► understand apples product development

00:04:36 ◼   ► process and they sort of apply the same

00:04:40 ◼   ► view that they would to any other

00:04:43 ◼   ► product any other product category coke

00:04:45 ◼   ► pepsi when I mean soda cars anything and

00:04:49 ◼   ► they the easiest way to evaluate stuff

00:04:51 ◼   ► is just to have a checklist which is

00:04:52 ◼   ► kind of what places like consumer

00:04:55 ◼   ► reports use and a lot of the technology

00:04:57 ◼   ► sites use to do evaluation of products

00:05:00 ◼   ► because it's just easier that way and so

00:05:01 ◼   ► they have this checklist mentality and

00:05:03 ◼   ► they go down the checklist and apple

00:05:04 ◼   ► products often don't mean they're not

00:05:06 ◼   ► they're not built that way they're built

00:05:09 ◼   ► for fit and finish and design and and

00:05:11 ◼   ► many other factors that don't easily

00:05:12 ◼   ► lend themselves to be evaluated by a

00:05:14 ◼   ► checklist process and so these guys go

00:05:17 ◼   ► through and they mostly guys and they

00:05:20 ◼   ► say you know the samsung device better

00:05:24 ◼   ► because it's got a bigger screen or it's

00:05:25 ◼   ► got its got a projector and it and which

00:05:29 ◼   ► is which is it that is true it is there

00:05:31 ◼   ► is a phone out with a little and

00:05:33 ◼   ► projector which i think is just utter

00:05:35 ◼   ► madness but there is there is something

00:05:38 ◼   ► that you can check off on a list and

00:05:39 ◼   ► apple will never have a phone with a

00:05:41 ◼   ► projector in it so they give more checks

00:05:46 ◼   ► to the samsung device and apples device

00:05:48 ◼   ► gets fewer and so they say the samsung

00:05:50 ◼   ► device 1 and then what happens is mac

00:05:54 ◼   ► users of Apple fans get into the

00:05:57 ◼   ► comments and start screaming loudly that

00:05:59 ◼   ► they don't understand what they're a

00:06:00 ◼   ► bunch of idiots and and this starts this

00:06:03 ◼   ► sort of feedback loop for insanity where

00:06:05 ◼   ► these people think that we're all

00:06:06 ◼   ► completely unreasonable because you know

00:06:08 ◼   ► they're fully scientific process as

00:06:11 ◼   ► determined that the samsung devices

00:06:13 ◼   ► better and with it so therefore they try

00:06:15 ◼   ► and come up with an explanation for why

00:06:17 ◼   ► are we so so bent out of shape about

00:06:21 ◼   ► this and they're only explanation that

00:06:23 ◼   ► they can come up with is that it's a

00:06:24 ◼   ► religion that's there been one of its

00:06:28 ◼   ► and never gets old happened to never do

00:06:30 ◼   ► I really never detect effort is well and

00:06:34 ◼   ► I'm part of it too is in its it's that

00:06:36 ◼   ► the the

00:06:36 ◼   ► f-word faithful yeah yeah yeahs the

00:06:39 ◼   ► Apple faithful or sometimes I still see

00:06:42 ◼   ► I just saw yesterday and it's one of

00:06:44 ◼   ► those things where I never know where

00:06:44 ◼   ► there is linked to it and throw traffic

00:06:47 ◼   ► at this crap just to make a joke or just

00:06:50 ◼   ► let it slide but I let it slide but it

00:06:51 ◼   ► was an argument and and the the gist of

00:06:54 ◼   ► it was that the people who buy output

00:06:56 ◼   ► all apple products are you know the the

00:06:59 ◼   ► religious fervor to fuck but they called

00:07:01 ◼   ► him the mac faithful it's the mac

00:07:03 ◼   ► faithful who are buying the iphones and

00:07:05 ◼   ► ipads and macs when when you know you

00:07:08 ◼   ► just took 35 number 35 million and a

00:07:11 ◼   ► quarter i mean yeah right

00:07:13 ◼   ► 15 minute they're expecting to sell 50

00:07:16 ◼   ► million iphones in the last three months

00:07:17 ◼   ► alone when they report their numbers

00:07:19 ◼   ► next week and maintenance the matter

00:07:21 ◼   ► where there is a little bit higher a

00:07:22 ◼   ► little bit lower it's not going to be

00:07:23 ◼   ► too far away from 50 million they don't

00:07:25 ◼   ► sell 50 million max you know it sounds

00:07:28 ◼   ► crazy like the whole idea that there's

00:07:30 ◼   ► an apple faithful and that's who they

00:07:31 ◼   ► sell to is wrongheaded nuts too but i

00:07:34 ◼   ► think that that they still toss around

00:07:36 ◼   ► the term Mac faithful to describe them

00:07:38 ◼   ► shows just how burned into their lizard

00:07:45 ◼   ► brains this this this view of Apple is

00:07:48 ◼   ► ya know i think i was with you the last

00:07:51 ◼   ► time ri-ight I put it in context of like

00:07:55 ◼   ► first impressions and that people's

00:07:57 ◼   ► brains like were evolutionarily wired to

00:08:00 ◼   ► make first impression or not even first

00:08:02 ◼   ► impressions but you know initial

00:08:04 ◼   ► impressions of people and people don't

00:08:06 ◼   ► really change that much overtime and so

00:08:08 ◼   ► we're just not wired to change our mind

00:08:11 ◼   ► about something or thing you know and

00:08:14 ◼   ► evolutionary there's no reason to to

00:08:17 ◼   ► really have a conception of a

00:08:19 ◼   ► corporation because there weren't any

00:08:20 ◼   ► but I i think our brains are just you

00:08:23 ◼   ► know we treat them the same way we have

00:08:25 ◼   ► emotional the way they have an emotional

00:08:27 ◼   ► response to a person you have an

00:08:28 ◼   ► emotional response to companies and that

00:08:30 ◼   ► I think it's a lost a lot of people who

00:08:33 ◼   ► formed their view of apple in the

00:08:35 ◼   ► nineties one of ya know the company was

00:08:38 ◼   ► in trouble and it looked like you could

00:08:41 ◼   ► really make the argument that their

00:08:42 ◼   ► basic strategy of of controlling the

00:08:46 ◼   ► whole experience doing the software

00:08:48 ◼   ► doing the hard

00:08:49 ◼   ► we're doing things their own way that

00:08:52 ◼   ► you could you know reasonably make a

00:08:54 ◼   ► data back argument then that it was

00:08:56 ◼   ► that's the wrong way to go and that

00:08:57 ◼   ► doesn't work and that the other way the

00:08:59 ◼   ► the pc way the open way of using you

00:09:02 ◼   ► know Microsoft operating system and

00:09:05 ◼   ► having a whole ecosystem of crazy you

00:09:07 ◼   ► know configurations of hardware that's

00:09:09 ◼   ► the way to go

00:09:10 ◼   ► when you can back that up there and I

00:09:12 ◼   ► feel people burn that into their mind

00:09:14 ◼   ► that Apple is stubborn and wrong and a

00:09:17 ◼   ► niche and designs for thuy design

00:09:21 ◼   ► aficionados and it's not successful and

00:09:24 ◼   ► that's the way it is and everything

00:09:26 ◼   ► that's happened since that seems to poke

00:09:29 ◼   ► a hole in that they just see that as a

00:09:32 ◼   ► fluke you know if it that you know

00:09:34 ◼   ► things will right itself things will

00:09:35 ◼   ► right themselves yeah thnkx will right

00:09:37 ◼   ► themselves eventually have a cute little

00:09:38 ◼   ► phrase for people to this kind of

00:09:40 ◼   ► thought process which is people cutting

00:09:44 ◼   ► themselves on Occam's razor because they

00:09:46 ◼   ► it's a simple explanation and usually

00:09:50 ◼   ► you know they say that simple

00:09:51 ◼   ► explanation is usually the right one

00:09:53 ◼   ► when it's not really i mean it's not

00:09:54 ◼   ► true in all cases and that's not true in

00:09:56 ◼   ► this case and there's the the idea that

00:09:59 ◼   ► the mobile landscape is exactly the same

00:10:02 ◼   ► as the pc landscape was and then in the

00:10:04 ◼   ► nineties is not it's really not the case

00:10:06 ◼   ► at all

00:10:07 ◼   ► there are certain similarities but it

00:10:11 ◼   ► yes definitely to say that it's playing

00:10:13 ◼   ► it's going to play out exactly the same

00:10:14 ◼   ► as just wrong it well and here's the

00:10:17 ◼   ► other thing I keep coming back to and I

00:10:18 ◼   ► feel like I should

00:10:19 ◼   ► this is that this is an idea that I

00:10:21 ◼   ► could expand into it pretty good article

00:10:22 ◼   ► maybe hang out i want to i want to take

00:10:26 ◼   ► that take that down i want to get this

00:10:27 ◼   ► down so i can just dealing primarily

00:10:29 ◼   ► with people worrying about today is iOS

00:10:31 ◼   ► its phones and the tablet and then when

00:10:33 ◼   ► they say that Apple is going to run into

00:10:34 ◼   ► the same problem that they did before

00:10:35 ◼   ► its basic argument that android is the

00:10:38 ◼   ► new windows and iOS is the new mac and

00:10:41 ◼   ► what happened to apple with a mac

00:10:43 ◼   ► against windows in the nineties is

00:10:45 ◼   ► repeating itself now but its Android and

00:10:47 ◼   ► Google instead of microsoft windows and

00:10:52 ◼   ► there's a couple of problems with that

00:10:54 ◼   ► 1i Apple back in the nineties with the

00:10:58 ◼   ► mac never ever ever had this sort of

00:11:00 ◼   ► success that they haven't

00:11:02 ◼   ► out with iOS in terms of the millions of

00:11:05 ◼   ► users and brand awareness they didn't

00:11:08 ◼   ► have the retail presence because i

00:11:09 ◼   ► didn't even have retail stores even so

00:11:11 ◼   ► many things that are different right

00:11:12 ◼   ► they were not the world's most

00:11:13 ◼   ► profitable company at some point you

00:11:15 ◼   ► know when the mac was at its peak and

00:11:18 ◼   ► windows 95 hadn't come out yet they

00:11:20 ◼   ► weren't the most claiming they were

00:11:21 ◼   ► doing better than they were in those

00:11:23 ◼   ► dark years of 96 97 98 but they were

00:11:26 ◼   ► never the world's most profitable

00:11:27 ◼   ► company they were never the biggest pc

00:11:29 ◼   ► seller they never had hit you know

00:11:32 ◼   ► marketshare like they have with the ipad

00:11:34 ◼   ► tablets none of these things retro but i

00:11:36 ◼   ► would just say I would push all that

00:11:38 ◼   ► aside and and just go back and just

00:11:40 ◼   ► revisit the idea that something actually

00:11:41 ◼   ► went wrong for apple in the pc industry

00:11:44 ◼   ► they did have a couple of bad years but

00:11:46 ◼   ► they were had really bad management at

00:11:48 ◼   ► that right i just look at I mean look at

00:11:51 ◼   ► where the mac is today as 25 or 26

00:11:55 ◼   ► consecutive quarters of outgrowing the

00:11:57 ◼   ► pc industry as a whole

00:11:59 ◼   ► right like and it's very profitable I

00:12:02 ◼   ► like did Apple actually lose the pc Wars

00:12:05 ◼   ► yeah I mean I don't even see the

00:12:07 ◼   ► argument of that right you know that

00:12:08 ◼   ► they're yes there were a couple of years

00:12:10 ◼   ► where things were bad but in hindsight

00:12:11 ◼   ► and given the stability that that's

00:12:14 ◼   ► happened in the last 15 years with the

00:12:16 ◼   ► mac guy

00:12:18 ◼   ► how can you argue that they even lost

00:12:19 ◼   ► that if you add the ipad and now as

00:12:22 ◼   ► right consider that a computer is

00:12:25 ◼   ► there's you can't really say that I i

00:12:28 ◼   ► think and i think it let's just call the

00:12:29 ◼   ► pc industry let's let's separate the

00:12:31 ◼   ► ipad from right let's say that that's

00:12:33 ◼   ► post-pc and let's say the pc industry is

00:12:36 ◼   ► what we thought let's draw the line at

00:12:38 ◼   ► 2007 and say before the iphone what we

00:12:41 ◼   ► thought of is the pc in this just tops

00:12:42 ◼   ► and lastly my laptop's running windows

00:12:45 ◼   ► or mac or linux and you know keyboards

00:12:49 ◼   ► and mice and pointers that that type of

00:12:51 ◼   ► thing i would guess that if you

00:12:54 ◼   ► separated out apples profits i'm in fact

00:12:57 ◼   ► I don't even think i have to guess i'm

00:12:59 ◼   ► almost certain that Microsoft is still

00:13:02 ◼   ► the most profitable pc company that the

00:13:05 ◼   ► microsoft makes more profits from what

00:13:08 ◼   ► that definition i just made of pcs than

00:13:11 ◼   ► apple and maybe Intel makes makes the

00:13:15 ◼   ► sex

00:13:15 ◼   ► the most i don't know but Apple

00:13:17 ◼   ► certainly makes a lot and i'm pretty

00:13:19 ◼   ► sure that they make more profit than any

00:13:21 ◼   ► other company that makes pc hardware

00:13:23 ◼   ► that they make more profit on it than HP

00:13:26 ◼   ► or any of those companies it's certainly

00:13:30 ◼   ► a very good interesting that nobody yet

00:13:31 ◼   ► I feel like there's still this

00:13:32 ◼   ► assumption that Apple Apple screwed the

00:13:34 ◼   ► pooch with pcs in the ninth year it's

00:13:38 ◼   ► interesting that nobody's done that that

00:13:40 ◼   ► you don't see somebody I mean everybody

00:13:42 ◼   ► focuses focuses so much on mobile right

00:13:44 ◼   ► now that nobody really is are you having

00:13:47 ◼   ► that argument anymore

00:13:48 ◼   ► no and I feel like it the time to make

00:13:51 ◼   ► it is fading too because the pc industry

00:13:54 ◼   ► is shrinking and now that it's shrinking

00:13:56 ◼   ► I mean like I I kind of Miss spoke just

00:13:59 ◼   ► before going on the air here i posted

00:14:02 ◼   ► the thing about about apple and what why

00:14:04 ◼   ► is Apple expected that was a argument

00:14:06 ◼   ► from some woman that Apple needs to

00:14:08 ◼   ► introduce something new and I just did a

00:14:11 ◼   ► brief piece and I just said well why

00:14:12 ◼   ► does Apple need to do something when

00:14:13 ◼   ► they the things that they've already got

00:14:15 ◼   ► all profitable the mac ipad and iphone

00:14:18 ◼   ► all profitable and growing and somebody

00:14:20 ◼   ► pointed out that the Mac isn't actually

00:14:21 ◼   ► growing anymore I feel like quarter

00:14:24 ◼   ► quarter sales might even be down a

00:14:25 ◼   ► little bit

00:14:27 ◼   ► I what I was thinking was that they're

00:14:30 ◼   ► still growing

00:14:31 ◼   ► it's still outpacing the npc industry as

00:14:33 ◼   ► a whole it's just that the pc industry

00:14:35 ◼   ► as a whole is starting to shrink so fast

00:14:37 ◼   ► that even with the mac doing well

00:14:40 ◼   ► relative to all other pcs it's still

00:14:42 ◼   ► actually shrinking quarter-to-quarter

00:14:44 ◼   ► but that's all it's actually you know

00:14:45 ◼   ► it's one of those like nice problem to

00:14:48 ◼   ► have because it's all about the ipad so

00:14:50 ◼   ► because so many fewer laptops are being

00:14:52 ◼   ► sold because people are buying ipads

00:14:53 ◼   ► right at I I want and I wanted to talk

00:14:57 ◼   ► to you about that I wanted to discuss

00:14:59 ◼   ► that as well as that which you had it

00:15:01 ◼   ► yeah i was just looking up the mac unit

00:15:02 ◼   ► sales numbers and there up there up

00:15:07 ◼   ► year-over-year but just barely

00:15:12 ◼   ► yeah it's close it's you know it's yes

00:15:15 ◼   ► it would be tough to say growing anymore

00:15:17 ◼   ► yet they're still strong and compared to

00:15:19 ◼   ► their historical knowledge they are they

00:15:21 ◼   ► are they are literally growing its its

00:15:23 ◼   ► but they'll have to have a pretty good

00:15:24 ◼   ► quarter to be I think they would do it i

00:15:26 ◼   ► think they do they are still growing but

00:15:28 ◼   ► it's not by

00:15:29 ◼   ► it's not a lot that's not right now and

00:15:31 ◼   ► they maybe maybe these numbers for this

00:15:33 ◼   ► last quarter will be pretty good because

00:15:35 ◼   ► they introduced a couple of new yeah you

00:15:37 ◼   ► know they had new imacs and they shipped

00:15:41 ◼   ► ladies I don't know I wonder how my

00:15:42 ◼   ► brother sure if the third i don't i

00:15:44 ◼   ► guess the 13-inch macbook pros their

00:15:46 ◼   ► best-selling laptop I don't know that my

00:15:49 ◼   ► lady might wanna think the answer retina

00:15:51 ◼   ► or at least you can get ready at the

00:15:53 ◼   ► animal mind if they might have a really

00:15:54 ◼   ► good number

00:15:55 ◼   ► yeah for for max you know anybody who

00:15:57 ◼   ► was holding out on a new imac god forbid

00:16:00 ◼   ► anybody wait until next week to find out

00:16:02 ◼   ► we should also know you're not a nobody

00:16:04 ◼   ► that it actually won't show up in the

00:16:06 ◼   ► quarterly results so because like the

00:16:07 ◼   ► imac didn't just another thing of

00:16:09 ◼   ► december so maybe they didn't yeah maybe

00:16:11 ◼   ► they're it wasn't because it wasn't

00:16:13 ◼   ► available the whole quarter maybe it

00:16:14 ◼   ► will be this next quarter where we'll

00:16:15 ◼   ► see you know that spike from the new the

00:16:18 ◼   ► new introduction yeah with the holiday

00:16:19 ◼   ► quarter usually does better than yeah

00:16:22 ◼   ► regardless you know computers at didn't

00:16:24 ◼   ► maybe it's not it's it's kind of a

00:16:26 ◼   ► big-ticket christmas gift but it still

00:16:27 ◼   ► is the sort of thing that people will

00:16:29 ◼   ► buy and call it a Christmas game

00:16:31 ◼   ► I'm but the thing that I think about

00:16:33 ◼   ► that I would i think is that it's fine

00:16:38 ◼   ► for them to go along for a while and

00:16:39 ◼   ► just and just try and ride the growth of

00:16:41 ◼   ► these existing products but eventually

00:16:43 ◼   ► the Apple that we know is more about

00:16:47 ◼   ► going into new markets and reinventing a

00:16:49 ◼   ► new market and staking out the high-end

00:16:53 ◼   ► and selling you know scooping up all the

00:16:55 ◼   ► profit and leaving the low end for

00:16:58 ◼   ► everybody else right and I'm certainly

00:17:01 ◼   ► not arguing that they never need to

00:17:02 ◼   ► introduce something a major new

00:17:04 ◼   ► disruption right I I just think though

00:17:06 ◼   ► that it's that it's goofy to say they

00:17:08 ◼   ► needed a media and that's the thing they

00:17:10 ◼   ► need that's the other right there's a

00:17:11 ◼   ► big difference between they need a major

00:17:13 ◼   ► new disruption eventually vs they need a

00:17:16 ◼   ► major new disruption now right now right

00:17:19 ◼   ► and that's something else I think I

00:17:20 ◼   ► touched on that and that column is that

00:17:22 ◼   ► the there's this myth that Apple under

00:17:27 ◼   ► steve jobs turned out and I think we've

00:17:29 ◼   ► talked about this before but turned out

00:17:30 ◼   ► a groundbreaking product pretty much

00:17:32 ◼   ► every quarter which is right in not

00:17:34 ◼   ► always gotta work yeah every single time

00:17:37 ◼   ► the guy came onstage sheet obliterated

00:17:39 ◼   ► and indeed

00:17:40 ◼   ► and Tim Cook still has a right and it's

00:17:43 ◼   ► been a whole year and Tim Cook stores

00:17:45 ◼   ► hasn't done it but if you know they they

00:17:48 ◼   ► did you could say the imac was

00:17:50 ◼   ► groundbreaking I guess even though the

00:17:53 ◼   ► operating system was exactly the same as

00:17:55 ◼   ► the previous operating system and so

00:17:58 ◼   ► they did the imac they did the ipod

00:18:00 ◼   ► three years later and then they did the

00:18:06 ◼   ► iphone 6 years after the ipod write

00:18:12 ◼   ► something like that right which is way

00:18:14 ◼   ► longer than the scope of period we're

00:18:16 ◼   ► looking at right now from the a brief

00:18:19 ◼   ► everybody points to the original iPad in

00:18:22 ◼   ► 2012 10

00:18:25 ◼   ► yeah so that's what get we're coming

00:18:26 ◼   ► close to about three years we still have

00:18:28 ◼   ► it should hit the bare minimum for

00:18:31 ◼   ► coming up with something new

00:18:33 ◼   ► alright so and as somebody one of the

00:18:36 ◼   ► things i linked to recently said I think

00:18:38 ◼   ► it was this piece from harvard business

00:18:39 ◼   ► review by dim pelota who made the exact

00:18:42 ◼   ► same point you just did that they went

00:18:43 ◼   ► six years without a disruption under

00:18:45 ◼   ► steve jobs between the ipod and an

00:18:49 ◼   ► iphone is that when the ipad came out

00:18:54 ◼   ► with everybody now hails as the thing

00:18:55 ◼   ► that they need to do something like that

00:18:57 ◼   ► again a lot of these same people said

00:18:59 ◼   ► that just a big ipod 2g iphone that they

00:19:02 ◼   ► didn't even count it when it appears now

00:19:04 ◼   ► that's usually the hallmark I mean the

00:19:09 ◼   ► iphone is the the exception I've often

00:19:13 ◼   ► said this that it's like the holy grail

00:19:14 ◼   ► of Apple introductions because it was

00:19:16 ◼   ► the one that blew everybody away it blew

00:19:20 ◼   ► me away

00:19:22 ◼   ► you know I'd i'm assuming a blue you I

00:19:24 ◼   ► blew the people who get apple away and

00:19:26 ◼   ► it blew the people who don't get apple

00:19:27 ◼   ► away everybody even the people don't

00:19:29 ◼   ► understand the company were like wow

00:19:30 ◼   ► that's a thing

00:19:31 ◼   ► yeah that's amazing what why don't you

00:19:34 ◼   ► do that everything that was that was my

00:19:35 ◼   ► first mac world was that one but and so

00:19:39 ◼   ► I remember I kept saying I might've been

00:19:42 ◼   ► sitting next to yeah right over today to

00:19:44 ◼   ► glen freshman at the time and I think

00:19:45 ◼   ► this is that are they all like that's it

00:19:47 ◼   ► this is amazing

00:19:52 ◼   ► I that was the one where everybody

00:19:55 ◼   ► recognized it but all the other ones

00:19:57 ◼   ► usually are met like it's a good sign

00:19:59 ◼   ► that Apple's on something if it's

00:20:01 ◼   ► greeted with a collective man yeah

00:20:04 ◼   ► you're right it's getting I've kind of

00:20:08 ◼   ► pity the guy because I feel like it's

00:20:09 ◼   ► gonna go on his tombstone that you know

00:20:11 ◼   ► commander tacos famous slashdot reaction

00:20:14 ◼   ► that original ipod that wasn't apple

00:20:17 ◼   ► releases ipod this is from slashdot

00:20:19 ◼   ► october2013 2001 and here's here's what

00:20:22 ◼   ► commander talking road no wireless less

00:20:25 ◼   ► space than a nomad no man named better

00:20:29 ◼   ► than I remember

00:20:30 ◼   ► let him also he didn't capitalize no

00:20:33 ◼   ► matter I feel like there's like a sort

00:20:37 ◼   ► of disdain to that you have a giant

00:20:41 ◼   ► apple stuff is good

00:20:44 ◼   ► did you have an mp3 player before the

00:20:45 ◼   ► ipod yes I did not Amy Amy had a 30

00:20:52 ◼   ► something or another that's what I had

00:20:54 ◼   ► to and it was a flash-based job yeah and

00:20:57 ◼   ► it held ten songs 11 if you pick the

00:21:01 ◼   ► right song right so it was cool in the

00:21:07 ◼   ► sense like that if you are used to the

00:21:11 ◼   ► song restrictions of a CD or a tape you

00:21:15 ◼   ► know where you could have about one

00:21:16 ◼   ► album worth you could do it and it was

00:21:18 ◼   ► this device that was way lighter you

00:21:21 ◼   ► know then a the spinning disc player and

00:21:23 ◼   ► smaller and didn't you never had to

00:21:26 ◼   ► worry about jostling it and having it

00:21:30 ◼   ► skip or something like that but in

00:21:32 ◼   ► hindsight it was a collective

00:21:33 ◼   ► pain-in-the-ass where if you're sick of

00:21:35 ◼   ► the tents on Iran he had like connected

00:21:37 ◼   ► to your man it was but indicated i think

00:21:39 ◼   ► it you sound jam yeah yeah yeah but what

00:21:42 ◼   ► she used to manage right that's what I

00:21:43 ◼   ► did too and at the time i got it just

00:21:45 ◼   ► before going to Tokyo my wife and I

00:21:48 ◼   ► spent three months in tokyo i was

00:21:49 ◼   ► working working there and it was it was

00:21:53 ◼   ► actually I mean for me it was pretty

00:21:54 ◼   ► good because it was like it was like a

00:21:56 ◼   ► shuffle was like an iPod shuffle because

00:21:58 ◼   ► you just loaded up with a few saw

00:22:01 ◼   ► you know what obviously more size

00:22:04 ◼   ► constraint but I it i had a like a

00:22:07 ◼   ► 20-minute commute and it was it was

00:22:11 ◼   ► perfect but you know it was funny the

00:22:16 ◼   ► interface was so bad that i really do

00:22:18 ◼   ► think no joke it was harder to find a

00:22:20 ◼   ► specific song even though there were

00:22:22 ◼   ► only ten or eleven songs total that down

00:22:24 ◼   ► and I ipod yet you might have loaded was

00:22:27 ◼   ► useless i'm at the interface for it was

00:22:29 ◼   ► it was useless which is something that

00:22:31 ◼   ► Apple rightly recognized there's no

00:22:33 ◼   ► point in having the screen are you know

00:22:35 ◼   ► what the songs are my hand right it

00:22:37 ◼   ► shouldn't you're gonna play them at a

00:22:39 ◼   ► random is going to land a random order

00:22:40 ◼   ► great probably just made it worse right

00:22:43 ◼   ► and it also comes to that thing it also

00:22:45 ◼   ► gets to the point that Syracuse i made

00:22:47 ◼   ► this week in an article about companies

00:22:50 ◼   ► you know that the the software being the

00:22:52 ◼   ► weak lincoln in all of these hardware

00:22:54 ◼   ► products at CES like you know and that's

00:22:57 ◼   ► the what was wrong with all the mp3

00:22:59 ◼   ► players before the ipod was their

00:23:01 ◼   ► software i mean the did the interface it

00:23:03 ◼   ► was just horrendous and this is what is

00:23:06 ◼   ► what i don't understand about this cheap

00:23:08 ◼   ► iphone thing it is the way Apple made

00:23:11 ◼   ► cheap ipods is by stripping out features

00:23:14 ◼   ► and making a better more restricted

00:23:16 ◼   ► device that just did less but did it

00:23:20 ◼   ► really well and easily and i don't see

00:23:23 ◼   ► how they're going to be able to do that

00:23:25 ◼   ► with an iphone you can't strip out the

00:23:28 ◼   ► platform you can't have one that's just

00:23:31 ◼   ► a phone so what exactly area removing it

00:23:37 ◼   ► and it seems like they're they're going

00:23:39 ◼   ► with this

00:23:40 ◼   ► you know to date they just been going

00:23:41 ◼   ► with this last year's model thing right

00:23:45 ◼   ► and how are they in and I don't

00:23:46 ◼   ► understand if they're going to do that

00:23:48 ◼   ► there's an intellectual laziness to the

00:23:51 ◼   ► argument this this

00:23:52 ◼   ► oh yes finally they're doing they're

00:23:54 ◼   ► going to make a cheap iPhone you know

00:23:56 ◼   ► and it's it's the same people who think

00:23:59 ◼   ► that that's good

00:24:01 ◼   ► welcome and good news you know but

00:24:03 ◼   ► they're their arguments in favor of it

00:24:05 ◼   ► are intellectually so lazy it really all

00:24:07 ◼   ► comes down to what I call that the

00:24:09 ◼   ► Church of market area it's just this

00:24:11 ◼   ► religious fervor

00:24:13 ◼   ► that market shares the most important

00:24:15 ◼   ► thing and anything that's a move for

00:24:17 ◼   ► market share is good in anything that

00:24:20 ◼   ► doesn't help your market share is bad

00:24:22 ◼   ► regardless of things like profitability

00:24:24 ◼   ► or consumer loyalty or building out the

00:24:29 ◼   ► platform in the same way from a

00:24:31 ◼   ► developer's perspective

00:24:32 ◼   ► none of that matters all that matters is

00:24:34 ◼   ► if they sold an iphone cheaper they gain

00:24:36 ◼   ► market share

00:24:37 ◼   ► it's john sculley says that you

00:24:39 ◼   ► shouldn't of itself that's it it's so

00:24:40 ◼   ► facto it would be good for apple and if

00:24:42 ◼   ► they don't do it it's bad and john

00:24:44 ◼   ► skelly says you should do it you should

00:24:45 ◼   ► not do it

00:24:46 ◼   ► what way I didn't read this goalie thing

00:24:49 ◼   ► that i have an opening basically say he

00:24:51 ◼   ► is well as point was that they should

00:24:53 ◼   ► make a small but I'm gonna cheaper

00:24:55 ◼   ► iPhone to do just that you know and

00:24:59 ◼   ► Scully is awesome so I know that he has

00:25:01 ◼   ► a thing i didn't read it yet but he gets

00:25:03 ◼   ► he's getting a bad rap because he he he

00:25:05 ◼   ► Apple we didn't leave Apple in too bad a

00:25:07 ◼   ► shape you know in the Newton thing

00:25:09 ◼   ► didn't work out but boy he was sure was

00:25:12 ◼   ► close to a thing you know I mean it's I

00:25:16 ◼   ► just think he's but his business

00:25:17 ◼   ► management is poorly suited to apples

00:25:22 ◼   ► strength right but if I were him that

00:25:25 ◼   ► said that if you know even given any

00:25:27 ◼   ► left the company in pretty good shape

00:25:28 ◼   ► and it was really Michael Spindler his

00:25:30 ◼   ► successor who ran the company into the

00:25:31 ◼   ► ground

00:25:32 ◼   ► we never hear of any more I don't know

00:25:34 ◼   ► what I cast he's the guy I'd like to

00:25:36 ◼   ► hear people get it you know what do you

00:25:37 ◼   ► think apples i get really good answer

00:25:39 ◼   ► out of him but if I were Scully I boy I

00:25:41 ◼   ► would never ever it get near those

00:25:43 ◼   ► questions I just you know it that don't

00:25:47 ◼   ► don't don't don't know what I mean

00:25:51 ◼   ► you're the guy around Steve Jobs out of

00:25:53 ◼   ► the company don't I would like to go and

00:25:55 ◼   ► maybe you know and it's such a long

00:25:56 ◼   ► complicated thing and maybe that really

00:25:58 ◼   ► was good for jobs because it really made

00:26:01 ◼   ► him re-evaluate things he learned

00:26:02 ◼   ► lessons and you know you could even

00:26:05 ◼   ► argue that that culturally next was more

00:26:08 ◼   ► of like a sibling to Apple then its

00:26:11 ◼   ► competitor and that the reunification in

00:26:14 ◼   ► 1998 was really more like to have that

00:26:17 ◼   ► never should have been separated coming

00:26:19 ◼   ► together but it never would have

00:26:20 ◼   ► happened if jobs hadn't been kicked out

00:26:23 ◼   ► and you know they never would have had

00:26:25 ◼   ► next step which turned into OS 10 and

00:26:27 ◼   ► blah blah blah but it in a nutshell vout

00:26:30 ◼   ► to Scully screwed up you know anybody

00:26:33 ◼   ► like I feel like he should just say

00:26:34 ◼   ► not one nice sentence about apple and

00:26:37 ◼   ► and say I you know but I'm not going to

00:26:39 ◼   ► comment on our manager yeah it's like

00:26:40 ◼   ► it's like talking about an old

00:26:42 ◼   ► girlfriend right here it's like what was

00:26:45 ◼   ► his name Pete best talking about beetles

00:26:47 ◼   ► out

00:26:48 ◼   ► yeah you know what I mean like ghetto

00:26:51 ◼   ► given a critique of you know what was

00:26:53 ◼   ► wrong with the white album you know what

00:26:54 ◼   ► Pete best is doesn't do that and that

00:26:56 ◼   ► for a good reason

00:26:58 ◼   ► talking about management old management

00:26:59 ◼   ► of apple i would like to go back and

00:27:00 ◼   ► look at I haven't done this recently and

00:27:03 ◼   ► I don't know if there's a concise place

00:27:04 ◼   ► to look at this but what the product mix

00:27:07 ◼   ► looked like when jobs or when Emilio

00:27:10 ◼   ► took over because they had all those ink

00:27:15 ◼   ► and if you included the clones

00:27:18 ◼   ► well I mean most of it was just a mess

00:27:21 ◼   ► yeah it really was what yeah because it

00:27:25 ◼   ► did clones were in place before Emilio

00:27:28 ◼   ► came in right right Amelia wasn't there

00:27:31 ◼   ► that long now only there for like was it

00:27:32 ◼   ► less than a year maybe a year he gets a

00:27:35 ◼   ► dee gets a bad rap too because he'd

00:27:38 ◼   ► actually did a pretty good job

00:27:40 ◼   ► I mean he didn't he didn't introduce

00:27:44 ◼   ► anything new to fix the company but he

00:27:47 ◼   ► stopped a lot of he stopped a lot of the

00:27:50 ◼   ► bleeding yeah you know it was like a

00:27:51 ◼   ► triage surgeon you know I mean like an

00:27:54 ◼   ► ER doctor who came in and yeah and at

00:27:57 ◼   ► least fixed the stuff that was awful and

00:27:59 ◼   ► then it was up two jobs to come in and

00:28:01 ◼   ► and you know get some new stuff that was

00:28:05 ◼   ► going to you know turn it around yeah

00:28:06 ◼   ► but I yeah I would love to see like one

00:28:09 ◼   ► of the way I could just see it as one of

00:28:11 ◼   ► those things like on a tumblr site like

00:28:12 ◼   ► one of those posters but yeah and

00:28:14 ◼   ► instead of just like all apple products

00:28:16 ◼   ► in history just what was the product

00:28:18 ◼   ► lineup like in the summer and 96 right

00:28:21 ◼   ► did you will do what did you on back

00:28:24 ◼   ► then I had a a powermac 9600 which was

00:28:32 ◼   ► an incredible fish

00:28:33 ◼   ► and at the time and I somehow i think it

00:28:36 ◼   ► was a machine that like de beauté at

00:28:39 ◼   ► like four or five grand and it somehow

00:28:45 ◼   ► quickly got superseded i forget what

00:28:48 ◼   ► happened a lot but I got it brand-new

00:28:51 ◼   ► right after like the next thing and come

00:28:54 ◼   ► out and I got it for like twenty one

00:28:56 ◼   ► hundred dollars so so it is like six

00:28:59 ◼   ► months earlier it was like 40 it was

00:29:01 ◼   ► retailing for like 4500 and i got it for

00:29:03 ◼   ► 2100 and use it for years it was one of

00:29:07 ◼   ► my one of the best computers i brung ya

00:29:09 ◼   ► I I performance 6400 which is widely

00:29:14 ◼   ► considered a road Apple but i really

00:29:19 ◼   ► liked that I really liked it it had

00:29:22 ◼   ► argued that the power was it a Power

00:29:24 ◼   ► Move was my thing called a parent

00:29:25 ◼   ► alright yeah yeah I could it would have

00:29:27 ◼   ► probably probably would again but a

00:29:28 ◼   ► pretty sure that it was a was only still

00:29:31 ◼   ► making always a 96 hardly swimming

00:29:32 ◼   ► cuadras now it wasn't a quadrant because

00:29:36 ◼   ► it was wasn't quadra a Quadra wasn't

00:29:39 ◼   ► powerpc and the locators powerpc right

00:29:42 ◼   ► okay i think there was power million and

00:29:45 ◼   ► I remember specifically that was in 9600

00:29:47 ◼   ► because i named my hard drive like how

00:29:49 ◼   ► 9600 my hard drive icon on that machine

00:29:52 ◼   ► was how icon so I thought you know it's

00:29:56 ◼   ► 9600 and how was the how 9000 you know

00:29:59 ◼   ► obvious obvious way to name your

00:30:01 ◼   ► computer

00:30:02 ◼   ► did you use a kaleidoscope and lots of

00:30:05 ◼   ► icon packs and I that's a great question

00:30:09 ◼   ► i did on and off for years

00:30:12 ◼   ► yeah I a kaleidoscope I didn't really

00:30:16 ◼   ► get into but i did use because I feel

00:30:18 ◼   ► like when collaborate on kaleidoscope

00:30:19 ◼   ► came out i had outgrown that right what

00:30:22 ◼   ► I had what I remember using was it

00:30:27 ◼   ► called Aaron maybe there was that we had

00:30:30 ◼   ► and it was by the guy who eventually

00:30:31 ◼   ► went on to make kaleidoscope with

00:30:33 ◼   ► somebody else but it was Aaron and he

00:30:35 ◼   ► also had one it was just an extension

00:30:37 ◼   ► you dropped in your folder and it

00:30:38 ◼   ► changed the look and feel of your

00:30:40 ◼   ► windows to look like any of this

00:30:45 ◼   ► this is crazy part is that Apple had

00:30:47 ◼   ► purposefully seated like to Macworld mac

00:30:50 ◼   ► user screenshots of the next generation

00:30:53 ◼   ► mac OS the copeland and whatever the

00:30:56 ◼   ► other Gershwin whatever the hell they're

00:30:57 ◼   ► coming out with and they were like

00:30:59 ◼   ► here's what it's going to look like like

00:31:01 ◼   ► the heck they were like so desperate for

00:31:03 ◼   ► publicity and and they're so stagnant on

00:31:06 ◼   ► the OS is that the key people excited

00:31:07 ◼   ► they revealed like two years in advance

00:31:10 ◼   ► what everything was going to look like

00:31:12 ◼   ► and so this guy was in Greg land weber

00:31:15 ◼   ► made extension called Aaron which gave

00:31:19 ◼   ► you that look and feel right now I think

00:31:22 ◼   ► I was like ten dollars shareware or

00:31:23 ◼   ► something yeah and then he came out with

00:31:25 ◼   ► one I forgot what it was called but it

00:31:27 ◼   ► did the same thing but made the mac look

00:31:28 ◼   ► like the BOS with the yellow tab style

00:31:32 ◼   ► windows right around that for a while

00:31:34 ◼   ► yeah but like I said I'd like you said i

00:31:36 ◼   ► think it's it's it's a niche that you

00:31:38 ◼   ► you get for a while and then once you've

00:31:41 ◼   ► scratched it you're done yeah all of a

00:31:43 ◼   ► sudden you feel silly yeah maybe it's an

00:31:45 ◼   ► age or maybe it's an agent of personal

00:31:47 ◼   ► yeah cost players i haven't had an

00:31:52 ◼   ► awesome time a lot of hydrogen i got

00:31:53 ◼   ► like that i don't know i always thought

00:31:56 ◼   ► that especially in those days with the

00:31:58 ◼   ► system extensions that the the curve for

00:32:02 ◼   ► power users was that as you got more and

00:32:04 ◼   ► more into your mac as an enthusiast in a

00:32:07 ◼   ► geek and someone who's just into it

00:32:09 ◼   ► you added more and more extensions and

00:32:11 ◼   ► when you you know for those of you who

00:32:12 ◼   ► don't remember when you booted your mac

00:32:14 ◼   ► in those days each system extension you

00:32:17 ◼   ► had would put a little icon up at the

00:32:18 ◼   ► bottom of the screen and you get this

00:32:20 ◼   ► usually would just go across one row but

00:32:22 ◼   ► if you were like really into it you get

00:32:23 ◼   ► two rows and if you really loaded your

00:32:25 ◼   ► system up with extensions you know you

00:32:26 ◼   ► get the third row or even a fourth row

00:32:28 ◼   ► and you can measure how much of a nerd

00:32:30 ◼   ► you were by how many rows of those icons

00:32:32 ◼   ► you got when you started your computer

00:32:34 ◼   ► but i always thought that when you got

00:32:35 ◼   ► to a certain point that it was like a

00:32:37 ◼   ► bell curve and it started going down the

00:32:39 ◼   ► other way and the people who really knew

00:32:41 ◼   ► the mac and really got into it ran with

00:32:43 ◼   ► his few extensions as possible because

00:32:46 ◼   ► there was always that that sense of

00:32:47 ◼   ► dread that it would stop as it was

00:32:51 ◼   ► loading because it was happens sometimes

00:32:53 ◼   ► yeah that that you'd be doing it and one

00:32:56 ◼   ► of the icons and come out and it was

00:32:57 ◼   ► just operate

00:32:58 ◼   ► which is the operating system which is

00:33:00 ◼   ► lockout while we're booting because

00:33:02 ◼   ► you've got the conflict i know i've

00:33:05 ◼   ► talked about this probably with dan on

00:33:07 ◼   ► old talk show but like one of the like

00:33:10 ◼   ► greatest software one of the greatest

00:33:13 ◼   ► apps in the history of mac OS was

00:33:15 ◼   ► content Hatcher yea which was a program

00:33:18 ◼   ► whose entire point was defined and help

00:33:21 ◼   ► you find and identify conflicts between

00:33:23 ◼   ► system extensions and identify them and

00:33:26 ◼   ► then you could have like you know if

00:33:28 ◼   ► extension a witch made your cursor turn

00:33:32 ◼   ► into a Snoopy dog when instead of a

00:33:35 ◼   ► watch on you were waiting for something

00:33:36 ◼   ► conflicted with the extension be which

00:33:41 ◼   ► gave you like a system-wide applescript

00:33:43 ◼   ► menu or something like that you could

00:33:45 ◼   ► like set presets and say ok when i'm

00:33:47 ◼   ► running this extension I'm not running

00:33:49 ◼   ► this one and when i'm running the other

00:33:50 ◼   ► one I'm not running this one and you

00:33:51 ◼   ► could like switch between them when you

00:33:52 ◼   ► started up and that the app I just

00:33:55 ◼   ► remember it's like you know it's like if

00:33:57 ◼   ► what were they doing that the app was

00:33:59 ◼   ► written by Jeff Robin who went on to

00:34:02 ◼   ► write sound jam which you may have heard

00:34:03 ◼   ► of is now called items and he still at

00:34:05 ◼   ► apple always really ok now because he

00:34:09 ◼   ► still does the demos he did the demo of

00:34:10 ◼   ► itunes a lot of how he still in charge

00:34:14 ◼   ► of itunes but conflict catches a huge

00:34:18 ◼   ► hit and it's just funny and hindsight

00:34:20 ◼   ► that it was necessary because we're

00:34:22 ◼   ► running these things do they eventually

00:34:24 ◼   ► well they made they made their own right

00:34:26 ◼   ► they made some sort of contract but i

00:34:29 ◼   ► wasn't i wasn't nearly as powerful I

00:34:31 ◼   ► don't like you could do it manually but

00:34:32 ◼   ► you couldn't save sets or something like

00:34:34 ◼   ► that

00:34:35 ◼   ► yes happen well the gist of it though is

00:34:38 ◼   ► that a you know ultimately long-term

00:34:41 ◼   ► they needed to move this something like

00:34:43 ◼   ► Mac os10 with a modern architecture

00:34:45 ◼   ► where one process isn't going to hang

00:34:48 ◼   ► the weather it's an extension or

00:34:49 ◼   ► whatever isn't going to hang your whole

00:34:51 ◼   ► computer but like the people who used to

00:34:54 ◼   ► complain about their max locking up

00:34:56 ◼   ► inevitably had like four rows of system

00:34:58 ◼   ► extensions and they were all using you

00:35:00 ◼   ► know api's that weren't meant to be used

00:35:02 ◼   ► by third-party developers whereas if you

00:35:04 ◼   ► just stuck to what apple gave uses ran

00:35:06 ◼   ► the stock OS it was very very

00:35:09 ◼   ► liable and and it was pretty hard dude

00:35:11 ◼   ► to do that though there were so many I

00:35:14 ◼   ► mean developers just began to ship those

00:35:15 ◼   ► things like crazy and and you get a new

00:35:18 ◼   ► you get a new box set of software and it

00:35:20 ◼   ► would install 15 extensions right

00:35:25 ◼   ► everything was an extension man you

00:35:27 ◼   ► needed like Adobe tight man just a

00:35:28 ◼   ► render PostScript fonts you needed an

00:35:30 ◼   ► extension from Adobe ATM adobe type

00:35:34 ◼   ► manager and you had the name adobe type

00:35:36 ◼   ► managers is we really have two weeks

00:35:38 ◼   ► here but remember you had the name adobe

00:35:40 ◼   ► type manager with the tilde oh yeah

00:35:42 ◼   ► there's have until the ATM because it

00:35:44 ◼   ► had a load last because if I don't even

00:35:47 ◼   ► know why but you had to make sure it

00:35:48 ◼   ► loaded last night loaded in alphabetical

00:35:50 ◼   ► order until the sorted to the bottom

00:35:53 ◼   ► whereas most punctuation characters

00:35:55 ◼   ► sorted to the top before the letters and

00:35:58 ◼   ► so is tilde ATM I don't miss that

00:36:02 ◼   ► no I don't miss that at all which was

00:36:04 ◼   ► sort of the one with thing that windows

00:36:06 ◼   ► I mean even as a Mac user we have to say

00:36:08 ◼   ► that windows 95 with protected memory

00:36:13 ◼   ► and none of that stuff was was actually

00:36:15 ◼   ► an improvement we would bitch about the

00:36:17 ◼   ► look and feel and how it was all stolen

00:36:19 ◼   ► from yeah there was your final actually

00:36:23 ◼   ► had only a stable mac that was

00:36:25 ◼   ► antithetical to apples the the way

00:36:29 ◼   ► things ought to it ran you know that you

00:36:31 ◼   ► really did have to be it's almost the

00:36:34 ◼   ► it's almost a complete polar opposite of

00:36:36 ◼   ► the appstore mindset where the appstore

00:36:38 ◼   ► mindset is look we vetted this stuff and

00:36:41 ◼   ► it's in a techno groups both two levels

00:36:44 ◼   ► of protection a we vetted it personally

00:36:47 ◼   ► before we allowed into the storm be

00:36:48 ◼   ► there is a sandbox that's technically

00:36:50 ◼   ► locks this software into an area where

00:36:53 ◼   ► it's not going to mess up your whole

00:36:54 ◼   ► system so we can't guarantee that the

00:36:56 ◼   ► app is going to be good but we can

00:36:58 ◼   ► guarantee you that it's not going to

00:36:59 ◼   ► you're not going to screw up your

00:37:00 ◼   ► computer in any way by installing

00:37:02 ◼   ► anything from the appstore whereas in

00:37:05 ◼   ► that those the nineties with the late

00:37:07 ◼   ► era of system 7 and system 8 you really

00:37:09 ◼   ► had to almost be an expert when you

00:37:11 ◼   ► installed anything to like make sure

00:37:13 ◼   ► that it wasn't going to hold your system

00:37:15 ◼   ► which was exactly the opposite of the

00:37:17 ◼   ► system seven and eight days we really

00:37:18 ◼   ► had to do like a before-and-after on

00:37:21 ◼   ► your extensions folder to make sure

00:37:22 ◼   ► that nothing sketchy had been stuck in

00:37:25 ◼   ► there and you set a new allocated memory

00:37:27 ◼   ► manually

00:37:29 ◼   ► Oh remember that that seems so

00:37:32 ◼   ► ridiculous as it's completely ridiculous

00:37:34 ◼   ► you the human being decided how much my

00:37:39 ◼   ► photoshop ram doubler and anyway we

00:37:45 ◼   ► should stop talking about that because

00:37:46 ◼   ► someone you know what though it doesn't

00:37:48 ◼   ► feel though that it does show that apple

00:37:50 ◼   ► yet

00:37:51 ◼   ► Apple was not in great shape in nineteen

00:37:53 ◼   ► ray six that's the point right and its

00:37:56 ◼   ► name anyways but I do want to talk about

00:37:59 ◼   ► the stock the whole stock thing

00:38:01 ◼   ► yeah I do but let's do it before you get

00:38:03 ◼   ► into the stock thing let's take a break

00:38:04 ◼   ► and i will do i'm going to do a sponsor

00:38:08 ◼   ► break yet i want to tell you about it

00:38:11 ◼   ► i'm going to tell you about a great new

00:38:12 ◼   ► app for the ipad is called infinite

00:38:15 ◼   ► refrigerator infinite refrigerator that

00:38:18 ◼   ► name is going to make total sense to you

00:38:20 ◼   ► as soon as I tell you what it does

00:38:21 ◼   ► infinite refrigerator provide you with

00:38:25 ◼   ► one or more personalized virtual

00:38:28 ◼   ► refrigerators and the ideas that you

00:38:30 ◼   ► make one for each of your kids and you

00:38:33 ◼   ► use it to display digital photos

00:38:36 ◼   ► pictures of artwork report cards notes

00:38:39 ◼   ► anything that you might put up your

00:38:42 ◼   ► real-life refrigerator in your kitchen

00:38:43 ◼   ► you can put up instead on your virtual

00:38:46 ◼   ► refrigerator in infinite refrigerator

00:38:49 ◼   ► why would you do this easy it eliminates

00:38:52 ◼   ► the guilt that sort of associate

00:38:53 ◼   ► implicit guild when you put stuff up on

00:38:56 ◼   ► a refrigerator and then time goes on you

00:38:58 ◼   ► get more pictures and you've got to take

00:39:00 ◼   ► the old stuff down to put the new stuff

00:39:02 ◼   ► up if you do an infinite refrigerator

00:39:05 ◼   ► instead you never have to take stuff

00:39:07 ◼   ► down you can just keep piling again

00:39:09 ◼   ► because it's a computer it can store all

00:39:11 ◼   ► and gives you a permanent digital home

00:39:15 ◼   ► for these type of mementos right photos

00:39:17 ◼   ► that you store on an infinite

00:39:19 ◼   ► refrigerator support full screen pan and

00:39:21 ◼   ► zoom just like the built-in Photos app

00:39:22 ◼   ► you can pick them from your camera roll

00:39:25 ◼   ► or you can take a new picture using the

00:39:27 ◼   ► app

00:39:30 ◼   ► put them up it looks like a thumbnail on

00:39:32 ◼   ► this little virtual fridge is a little

00:39:33 ◼   ► magnet tap the photo zooms to fullscreen

00:39:36 ◼   ► pan and zoom everything you want tap

00:39:38 ◼   ► again to close your back to the

00:39:40 ◼   ► refrigerator view you can supply a title

00:39:44 ◼   ► and a note for each photo you can even

00:39:45 ◼   ► record audio commentary or have your kid

00:39:48 ◼   ► record audio commentary describing the

00:39:50 ◼   ► photo or the picture of the image or

00:39:52 ◼   ► whatever it is in our own voice unlike

00:39:55 ◼   ► the real refrigerator in your kitchen

00:39:56 ◼   ► the an infinite refrigerator never

00:39:59 ◼   ► forget right and hanging next to each

00:40:01 ◼   ► infinite refrigerator is a calendar all

00:40:04 ◼   ► right there on screen tap the calendar

00:40:05 ◼   ► and you can go back in time and see what

00:40:07 ◼   ► the refrigerator look like before this

00:40:09 ◼   ► is the type of app where it's kind of

00:40:10 ◼   ► fun to use to keep you know to start

00:40:12 ◼   ► using but you're really not Yugi and you

00:40:15 ◼   ► can just imagine the benefits really are

00:40:17 ◼   ► going to come until you've been using it

00:40:18 ◼   ► for months or a year or even a couple of

00:40:21 ◼   ► years and you have a whole bunch of

00:40:23 ◼   ► mementos stored in this thing and then

00:40:24 ◼   ► you can use the calendar view to go back

00:40:26 ◼   ► and see what it looked like six months

00:40:28 ◼   ► or a year ago and just sort of page

00:40:30 ◼   ► through time like that bridges the whole

00:40:33 ◼   ► fridge the whole collage type layout

00:40:35 ◼   ► that you make or any individual photo

00:40:37 ◼   ► can be shared

00:40:38 ◼   ► if through the app via email I message

00:40:41 ◼   ► twitter facebook all the standard iOS

00:40:44 ◼   ► sharing stuff so how much does it cost

00:40:47 ◼   ► here's the deal it's an ipad app built

00:40:50 ◼   ► for iOS 6 download the app from the

00:40:53 ◼   ► appstore absolutely free free download

00:40:55 ◼   ► but here's the hitch you only get one

00:40:57 ◼   ► fridge to start with its place for blue

00:41:00 ◼   ► now you can make more than one of them

00:41:01 ◼   ► but if you want to use the other colors

00:41:03 ◼   ► they've got five other styles and colors

00:41:05 ◼   ► and fridges it's an in-app purchase 199

00:41:09 ◼   ► so it's a free app downloaded there's no

00:41:12 ◼   ► limits to it but you're using the blue

00:41:14 ◼   ► fridge you want to use other colors too

00:41:16 ◼   ► box-to-box to unlock the whole app super

00:41:19 ◼   ► cheap

00:41:20 ◼   ► what a great deal their website go to

00:41:24 ◼   ► infinite refrigerator dot-com that

00:41:28 ◼   ► infinite refrigerator calm you'll find

00:41:30 ◼   ► that all the information you need you'll

00:41:31 ◼   ► get to see how cool it looks really cool

00:41:34 ◼   ► built for kids

00:41:35 ◼   ► last thing I noticed is the in the

00:41:38 ◼   ► little virtual kitchen you get there's a

00:41:40 ◼   ► little virtual kitchen service around in

00:41:41 ◼   ► your fridge they even have a toaster and

00:41:44 ◼   ► you can write messages on a piece of

00:41:45 ◼   ► toast and keep that in there so I feel

00:41:48 ◼   ► like there's something in here and you

00:41:51 ◼   ► could tie this together with that Tim

00:41:53 ◼   ► Cook line last year about combining a

00:41:56 ◼   ► toaster in refrigerator but those things

00:41:58 ◼   ► are probably not going to be pleasing to

00:41:59 ◼   ► the user

00:42:00 ◼   ► well here's an app that combines a

00:42:02 ◼   ► refrigerator and a toaster and it's

00:42:03 ◼   ► actually pretty cool so maybe maybe Tim

00:42:05 ◼   ► Cook was wrong on that once again my

00:42:08 ◼   ► thanks to infinite refrigerator go check

00:42:10 ◼   ► them out at infinite refrigerator

00:42:12 ◼   ► dot-com so the stock

00:42:16 ◼   ► yes I'd what do you want what do you

00:42:18 ◼   ► want to say about this doc I try not to

00:42:20 ◼   ► write out the stock but I feel like

00:42:21 ◼   ► what's happened recently is so

00:42:23 ◼   ► extraordinary that it's so absurd that

00:42:26 ◼   ► you can't not talk about it right

00:42:28 ◼   ► I I nice try to spend at least a little

00:42:31 ◼   ► bit of time trying to understand the

00:42:34 ◼   ► situation with the options with the call

00:42:38 ◼   ► options on this why because you had

00:42:42 ◼   ► posted a link to something from november

00:42:46 ◼   ► explaining why they're there is a large

00:42:51 ◼   ► block of options out there so that with

00:42:55 ◼   ► with prices in the range of like 552 800

00:42:59 ◼   ► or something like that so it is it is in

00:43:02 ◼   ► the best interest of these money

00:43:04 ◼   ► managers who have those options out

00:43:06 ◼   ► there to try to keep apples price down

00:43:09 ◼   ► until they expire

00:43:11 ◼   ► I don't know what I don't know enough

00:43:14 ◼   ► about the stock market and what like an

00:43:16 ◼   ► option like that cost for cost but let

00:43:18 ◼   ► you know the gist of it though is it

00:43:20 ◼   ► back in the summer when the stock was

00:43:21 ◼   ► flying really high like up around seven

00:43:24 ◼   ► hundred dollars but in and spent most of

00:43:26 ◼   ► the summer and that 600 people who

00:43:30 ◼   ► bought these options bought them options

00:43:34 ◼   ► come with have an expiration date and it

00:43:36 ◼   ► seems like a lot of them expire this

00:43:38 ◼   ► week right

00:43:39 ◼   ► aah at price points let's say like you

00:43:41 ◼   ► said 550 to 650 or something like that

00:43:43 ◼   ► people who thought the stock would still

00:43:44 ◼   ► be like that so you'd buy the option

00:43:47 ◼   ► ah

00:43:49 ◼   ► or let's say i don't know i don't know

00:43:50 ◼   ► why I'm phone is out there ten bucks i

00:43:52 ◼   ► don't know maybe it's higher it's got to

00:43:54 ◼   ► be hot maybe it's higher but you by the

00:43:55 ◼   ► option for ten dollars you don't know

00:43:56 ◼   ► the stock you're not buying a stock

00:43:58 ◼   ► you're just buying the right to buy the

00:44:00 ◼   ► stock at a certain right price at a

00:44:02 ◼   ► certain date and you're betting that

00:44:05 ◼   ► come january nineteen apple stock will

00:44:08 ◼   ► still be up at like seven hundred

00:44:09 ◼   ► dollars and your option to buy the stock

00:44:12 ◼   ► at five hundred and fifty dollars means

00:44:14 ◼   ► you can buy a whole bunch of shares of

00:44:15 ◼   ► apple at 550

00:44:16 ◼   ► come January and it's already worth

00:44:20 ◼   ► seven hundred dollars because that's

00:44:21 ◼   ► what the stock is that and then you make

00:44:23 ◼   ► money you made money by betting that the

00:44:25 ◼   ► stock would be higher on that date then

00:44:27 ◼   ► the option price and on that could

00:44:31 ◼   ► converse side the person who sells these

00:44:33 ◼   ► options is making sort of the opposite

00:44:36 ◼   ► bet and if come the date that the

00:44:39 ◼   ► options expire the stock is under that

00:44:42 ◼   ► striking price for the option they win

00:44:45 ◼   ► because they keep the money that you

00:44:48 ◼   ► paid for that ten bucks per share that

00:44:50 ◼   ► you paid for the option to buy it and

00:44:52 ◼   ► they still own share that they had to

00:44:54 ◼   ► buy to cover these options if the person

00:44:56 ◼   ► that actually bought them but because

00:44:57 ◼   ► it's under the price they don't have to

00:44:59 ◼   ► sell it right is that did that sound

00:45:02 ◼   ► right that sounds right to me

00:45:03 ◼   ► yes right so that there's all these

00:45:06 ◼   ► institutional investors who in and the

00:45:08 ◼   ► guy you know and I guess these options

00:45:10 ◼   ► you can you can look up what the options

00:45:12 ◼   ► are mean it wasn't like he was making

00:45:13 ◼   ► stuff up like like we do he was actually

00:45:16 ◼   ► found on you know all these are you know

00:45:18 ◼   ► he was telling all the options that are

00:45:20 ◼   ► out there just at five hundred and fifty

00:45:22 ◼   ► dollars and it was like I don't six

00:45:23 ◼   ► hundred million dollars worth of them

00:45:25 ◼   ► and that wasn't counting the ones at

00:45:28 ◼   ► higher prices so it's easy to say that

00:45:30 ◼   ► there's well over a billion dollars at

00:45:33 ◼   ► stake if Apple's stock is like at 500 or

00:45:37 ◼   ► lower in the next two days

00:45:39 ◼   ► yeah which in turn leads to another

00:45:42 ◼   ► people who have those options certainly

00:45:44 ◼   ► motivates them to sort of poo-poo

00:45:46 ◼   ► badmouth the stock and make you know

00:45:49 ◼   ► these arguments like we've been talking

00:45:50 ◼   ► about earlier in the show about why

00:45:52 ◼   ► apple's and trouble and that they're not

00:45:53 ◼   ► doing too well and

00:45:54 ◼   ► stock is down and we should say that the

00:45:56 ◼   ► bulk of this this recent decline and

00:46:01 ◼   ► apples

00:46:02 ◼   ► well I don't know where it's at now

00:46:03 ◼   ► actually but the sort of the doldrums

00:46:06 ◼   ► that they're in right now is because a

00:46:08 ◼   ► couple of publications came out and said

00:46:10 ◼   ► that iphone 5 demand was soft based on

00:46:13 ◼   ► the fact that they had heard from some

00:46:15 ◼   ► people

00:46:15 ◼   ► nameless people that Apple had cut

00:46:19 ◼   ► orders for iphone 5 screens in half

00:46:25 ◼   ► right without really getting into what

00:46:29 ◼   ► exactly that means right i mean here's

00:46:32 ◼   ► the the wall street journal version of

00:46:35 ◼   ► it there are 22 publications that had

00:46:37 ◼   ► this I guess sunday night to monday

00:46:39 ◼   ► morning like it ran on the front page i

00:46:41 ◼   ► think of the journal monday and it was

00:46:43 ◼   ► knee-high and I kk e is Japanese paper i

00:46:48 ◼   ► don't know if it's like the Japanese

00:46:49 ◼   ► equivalent of the wall street journal or

00:46:50 ◼   ► what but then that but it's japanese and

00:46:52 ◼   ► so what I know about it is all

00:46:54 ◼   ► secondhand its people i guess can read

00:46:56 ◼   ► Japanese and and translating it and the

00:47:00 ◼   ► journal which seemingly had the exact

00:47:02 ◼   ► same information here's how the journal

00:47:04 ◼   ► story started and the headline was Apple

00:47:08 ◼   ► cuts orders for iphone parts Apple

00:47:12 ◼   ► incorporated has cut its orders for

00:47:14 ◼   ► components for the iphone 5 due to

00:47:16 ◼   ► weaker than expected demand people

00:47:19 ◼   ► familiar with the situation said monday

00:47:20 ◼   ► so there's like no if ands or butts in

00:47:24 ◼   ► that sentence right i mean they're not

00:47:25 ◼   ► saying who the people familiar with the

00:47:27 ◼   ► situation are never going to really

00:47:28 ◼   ► clarify but that's if you take that at

00:47:32 ◼   ► face value if you read The Wall Street

00:47:33 ◼   ► Journal ending that well it's the wall

00:47:35 ◼   ► street journal so you know if you read

00:47:36 ◼   ► it must be true there's no hemming and

00:47:38 ◼   ► hawing or well it you know there's two

00:47:42 ◼   ► things in there one that the components

00:47:43 ◼   ► were cut by half

00:47:45 ◼   ► no I didn't say that in the first

00:47:47 ◼   ► paragraph but it does say in the next

00:47:49 ◼   ► paragraph it says apples orders for

00:47:51 ◼   ► iphone screens for the january-march

00:47:53 ◼   ► quarter for example has dropped to

00:47:54 ◼   ► roughly half of what the company had

00:47:56 ◼   ► previously planned to order two of the

00:47:58 ◼   ► people said so half is a huge number

00:48:02 ◼   ► that's huge it doesn't matter what you

00:48:04 ◼   ► know what what it was from her too

00:48:07 ◼   ► and they don't hammer horror say maybe

00:48:09 ◼   ► it's or that it's a sign of weaker than

00:48:11 ◼   ► expected demand for the iphone 5 they

00:48:13 ◼   ► say that the journal says it's due to

00:48:15 ◼   ► weaker than expected demand and you know

00:48:20 ◼   ► the stock took a bath on that over the

00:48:22 ◼   ► next two days I mean really will trick

00:48:24 ◼   ► to get dropped by i forget like a market

00:48:27 ◼   ► cap why's it drop by like a hundred and

00:48:29 ◼   ► seventy million dollars billion dollars

00:48:30 ◼   ► which is like bigger than all but like

00:48:32 ◼   ► maybe like the 10 biggest corporations

00:48:35 ◼   ► in the world like they dropped in value

00:48:37 ◼   ► by more than the size of most big

00:48:39 ◼   ► companies and reunite originally they

00:48:43 ◼   ► used to be and i wrote a lot about it

00:48:44 ◼   ► this week i don't think the whole thing

00:48:46 ◼   ► is pile of horseshit

00:48:47 ◼   ► I really do at and at the the nikkei i

00:48:52 ◼   ► won from Japan gave actual numbers it

00:48:55 ◼   ► said that they said that the original

00:48:57 ◼   ► order was for 65 million displays

00:49:00 ◼   ► apparently apparently the journal had

00:49:02 ◼   ► that in there originally and then right

00:49:04 ◼   ► and then remove took it out like sunday

00:49:06 ◼   ► night online they had that in there and

00:49:09 ◼   ► I don't think it don't think it appeared

00:49:11 ◼   ► in print and by the time i read the

00:49:13 ◼   ► story monday morning it wasn't in there

00:49:15 ◼   ► that they had the same thing but they

00:49:17 ◼   ► didn't replace it with another number

00:49:18 ◼   ► which to me is a huge problem when you

00:49:21 ◼   ► say it's dropped by half but you don't

00:49:23 ◼   ► say what what you don't even give a

00:49:25 ◼   ► ballpark range for what the original

00:49:27 ◼   ► numbers were there's no way to ever

00:49:28 ◼   ► verify that right there because then

00:49:30 ◼   ► come next quarter apple can and will

00:49:32 ◼   ► release and say how many iphones they

00:49:33 ◼   ► sold and we can take a pretty good guess

00:49:35 ◼   ► that what percentage of them or iPhone 5

00:49:38 ◼   ► is based on the average selling price

00:49:39 ◼   ► and whatever that number is you could

00:49:44 ◼   ► say well the journal was right because

00:49:46 ◼   ► Apple expected to sell double that no

00:49:47 ◼   ► matter what it is because they didn't

00:49:49 ◼   ► give the number

00:49:50 ◼   ► yeah it's like when amazon says that

00:49:52 ◼   ► they've sold the most handles ever in a

00:49:54 ◼   ► quarter but they never tell you how many

00:49:56 ◼   ► they sold so who knows you know maybe

00:49:58 ◼   ► they went from 10 to 11 right or that

00:50:01 ◼   ► the you know I forget amazon always does

00:50:03 ◼   ► that they never reveal how many candles

00:50:04 ◼   ► they've sold but they'll say things like

00:50:06 ◼   ► it you know a hundred and fifty percent

00:50:08 ◼   ► higher than the previous record for

00:50:10 ◼   ► kindle sold in the quarter

00:50:12 ◼   ► yeah but it's you know a hundred and

00:50:13 ◼   ► fifty percent of ? and if they could

00:50:16 ◼   ► guess if the number add it's just none

00:50:17 ◼   ► of it is that makes sense because it's

00:50:20 ◼   ► it's unlikely that they would order 65

00:50:22 ◼   ► million screens for the current quarter

00:50:24 ◼   ► right it really makes no sense and

00:50:27 ◼   ► nobody seemed to question this hour

00:50:29 ◼   ► well I did but it seems like most people

00:50:31 ◼   ► people who should know better never

00:50:33 ◼   ► questioned it that it's such an unusual

00:50:34 ◼   ► number because there's the most i've

00:50:37 ◼   ► ever sold in a quarter is 37 million

00:50:39 ◼   ► that's iphones and a quarter and that

00:50:40 ◼   ► was last year's holiday quarter and this

00:50:44 ◼   ► year there's the consensus among

00:50:47 ◼   ► analysts both the wall street ones and

00:50:49 ◼   ► the independent analysts like Andy's a

00:50:50 ◼   ► ques you know have a much more accurate

00:50:53 ◼   ► track record is about 50 million so they

00:50:56 ◼   ► would go from 37 million last year 250

00:50:58 ◼   ► million this year year-over-year for the

00:51:00 ◼   ► holiday quarter and nobody is really

00:51:04 ◼   ► picking a number much higher than 50 and

00:51:07 ◼   ► the next quarter after the holiday

00:51:08 ◼   ► quarter they've always sold for less

00:51:10 ◼   ► than the holiday quarter because there's

00:51:13 ◼   ► so many people who buy them as holiday

00:51:14 ◼   ► gifts and now the last two years the

00:51:17 ◼   ► holiday quarter is when the new iphone

00:51:19 ◼   ► came out so you get the double whammy of

00:51:21 ◼   ► both the people who are like my gosh

00:51:24 ◼   ► you're like I want the new iphone as

00:51:25 ◼   ► soon as it comes out in order in that

00:51:27 ◼   ► quarter and you get the holiday gift

00:51:29 ◼   ► bump like so last year they went from 37

00:51:33 ◼   ► million in the holiday quarter 35

00:51:35 ◼   ► million in this January to March quarter

00:51:37 ◼   ► which is like I think roughly five

00:51:39 ◼   ► percent drop in all previous years

00:51:42 ◼   ► there's some level of dropped from

00:51:44 ◼   ► holiday to the next quarter but yet if

00:51:46 ◼   ► you take this 65 million number at face

00:51:48 ◼   ► value then somehow Apple expected thirty

00:51:51 ◼   ► percent growth in the january-march

00:51:54 ◼   ► quarter after the holiday quarter even

00:51:56 ◼   ► though there's no historical reason for

00:51:58 ◼   ► it and they're not introducing a new

00:52:00 ◼   ► model or anything like that it just

00:52:03 ◼   ► doesn't make any sense

00:52:04 ◼   ► like if they actually wanted to order

00:52:06 ◼   ► that many displays ah it seems like

00:52:10 ◼   ► somebody was drunk right

00:52:12 ◼   ► although i did I guess the other

00:52:14 ◼   ► argument i've seen which I hadn't

00:52:15 ◼   ► thought of the other argument i've seen

00:52:17 ◼   ► any horses did you you know and

00:52:18 ◼   ► typically the smart bed basket but

00:52:21 ◼   ► somebody pointed out that it could just

00:52:23 ◼   ► be that they're getting

00:52:23 ◼   ► higher-than-expected yields that maybe

00:52:26 ◼   ► they you know have expected that only

00:52:29 ◼   ► four out of every five displays they

00:52:31 ◼   ► ordered would be up to their stuff and

00:52:33 ◼   ► that they're finding that you know

00:52:35 ◼   ► ninety-five percent of them are passing

00:52:37 ◼   ► requirements so that they may be they

00:52:40 ◼   ► originally planned to order 65 million

00:52:41 ◼   ► not because they expected to buy sell 65

00:52:44 ◼   ► million iphones but that they needed 65

00:52:46 ◼   ► million to sell 45 million because they

00:52:49 ◼   ► expected 20 million of them to be duds

00:52:51 ◼   ► or something like that she's so there's

00:52:53 ◼   ► other arguments you can make but it's

00:52:54 ◼   ► still the 65 million thing just does not

00:52:56 ◼   ► it doesn't make any sense now and it

00:52:59 ◼   ► doesn't make any sense that they would

00:53:00 ◼   ► need to cut it in half due to this is

00:53:03 ◼   ► the bigger part I think we're regardless

00:53:05 ◼   ► of the actual number the bigger part is

00:53:07 ◼   ► whether such a cut-off would be due to

00:53:09 ◼   ► weaker than expected demand because

00:53:11 ◼   ► there seems to be no sign that there's

00:53:13 ◼   ► weaker-than-expected right now they only

00:53:15 ◼   ► want us across the border saying that

00:53:17 ◼   ► they expect 50 million iphones sold this

00:53:20 ◼   ► quarter with the quarter they're going

00:53:21 ◼   ► to announce next week verses 37 million

00:53:24 ◼   ► last year which is higher not lower and

00:53:26 ◼   ► they only caught up with demand about a

00:53:28 ◼   ► month ago right they spent most of that

00:53:30 ◼   ► the holiday quarter with you know you go

00:53:33 ◼   ► to the website with many times when you

00:53:36 ◼   ► ordered one they spent most of you know

00:53:39 ◼   ► up until I think December they you know

00:53:40 ◼   ► they hadn't production hadn't caught up

00:53:43 ◼   ► with demand they clearly been making

00:53:45 ◼   ► them as fast as they could this

00:53:48 ◼   ► ridiculous a minute of course the usual

00:53:49 ◼   ► collection of nerdy wells have been

00:53:53 ◼   ► saying seaweed we know we told you that

00:53:56 ◼   ► iphones nobody out nobody likes iphones

00:53:58 ◼   ► anymore right and the thing I got you

00:54:01 ◼   ► know an undated with his accusations of

00:54:03 ◼   ► you know I think what I sort of got one

00:54:05 ◼   ► guy called me Baghdad Bob but you know

00:54:11 ◼   ► it's like I don't know it's that guy

00:54:13 ◼   ► can't win

00:54:14 ◼   ► you know I mean there's no use worrying

00:54:16 ◼   ► about it

00:54:16 ◼   ► I mean but this is you know this is why

00:54:18 ◼   ► I drink but this is no way at you know

00:54:21 ◼   ► they're so convinced that doesn't matter

00:54:25 ◼   ► how many holes you logical solid holes

00:54:27 ◼   ► you can poke and say boy this just

00:54:29 ◼   ► doesn't add up

00:54:30 ◼   ► and.and point2 interesting ways of

00:54:32 ◼   ► looking at why it doesn't add up

00:54:34 ◼   ► it's it's the fact that there's so many

00:54:36 ◼   ► people and it gets back to you know what

00:54:38 ◼   ► we're talking with beginning of the show

00:54:39 ◼   ► who are so convinced that Apple it is

00:54:41 ◼   ► set to fall and that the iphone is

00:54:43 ◼   ► collapsing that they just took that

00:54:47 ◼   ► journal story and and that's it that's

00:54:51 ◼   ► the gospel right and so anybody who's

00:54:53 ◼   ► arguing otherwise just grasping at

00:54:55 ◼   ► straws because they're below an apple

00:54:57 ◼   ► yeah because it's a religion fall

00:54:58 ◼   ► because it's a religion

00:54:59 ◼   ► yeah so next week there's a couple

00:55:04 ◼   ► things to look for a little look to see

00:55:07 ◼   ► what happens with apple's share price

00:55:08 ◼   ► because of these options right and then

00:55:11 ◼   ► look to see at the conference call for

00:55:14 ◼   ► the conference call how many how many

00:55:16 ◼   ► iphones this is old which you should do

00:55:18 ◼   ► every quarter but right i do wish that

00:55:21 ◼   ► they would break it i guess you know I

00:55:23 ◼   ► can I mean we should be lucky because

00:55:24 ◼   ► Apple reveals a lot more sales data than

00:55:27 ◼   ► a lot of its competitors I mean like I

00:55:28 ◼   ► said amazon has never revealed how many

00:55:30 ◼   ► candles they've sold of any kind google

00:55:36 ◼   ► never reveals how many android phones

00:55:38 ◼   ► are so they just have that weird

00:55:39 ◼   ► activation number that they never define

00:55:41 ◼   ► what the hell yawns yeah

00:55:43 ◼   ► in the end you know they certainly don't

00:55:46 ◼   ► reveal numbers of their own nexus stuff

00:55:48 ◼   ► which they would no more than just

00:55:50 ◼   ► activation they should know exact sales

00:55:52 ◼   ► numbers nobody really reveals any of

00:55:54 ◼   ► that so it gives you wish I mean greedy

00:55:55 ◼   ► though I wish that apple would break it

00:55:57 ◼   ► down and say we saw this morning iphone

00:55:58 ◼   ► 5 this many fours and this many 4 s's

00:56:01 ◼   ► yeah I guess so apparently i guess it's

00:56:03 ◼   ► not it's not required for audit purposes

00:56:06 ◼   ► to do that no but that you can kind of

00:56:09 ◼   ► backwards engineer at tho by at least

00:56:12 ◼   ► getting the ballpark estimate by looking

00:56:14 ◼   ► at the average selling price and right

00:56:17 ◼   ► through analytics but it's kind of weird

00:56:20 ◼   ► that app developers and website mobile

00:56:22 ◼   ► websites looking at their statistics can

00:56:24 ◼   ► kind of suss out how many although i'm

00:56:26 ◼   ► not sure if a website can tell if your

00:56:27 ◼   ► iPhone's and iphone 5

00:56:29 ◼   ► I think it would just know the version

00:56:30 ◼   ► number i guess it's only the app

00:56:33 ◼   ► developers that get the analytics that

00:56:34 ◼   ► they can kind of tell you know what the

00:56:36 ◼   ► cpu is you can tell my story you can

00:56:38 ◼   ► tell by screen you can tell by screen

00:56:40 ◼   ► size right can you do the and it doesn't

00:56:43 ◼   ► tell the screen size

00:56:44 ◼   ► oh it does i I don't know in that

00:56:46 ◼   ► instance you can I guess I'm but guess

00:56:49 ◼   ► what I'm saying is I don't know how do I

00:56:50 ◼   ► i know i said i guess that does report i

00:56:53 ◼   ► guess since the iphone it does report

00:56:55 ◼   ► the screen size you can tell because the

00:56:56 ◼   ► only iphone with the 1136 pixels height

00:57:00 ◼   ► is the iphone 5 but it's weird that

00:57:02 ◼   ► apple reports more than another million

00:57:04 ◼   ► apple which is famously close secrets

00:57:08 ◼   ► your damn serious and reports more about

00:57:10 ◼   ► what they sell them other companies

00:57:12 ◼   ► still yeah and we know part of it is

00:57:14 ◼   ► that they're not really secretive about

00:57:15 ◼   ► everything they're really mostly

00:57:16 ◼   ► secretive about what they're going to do

00:57:18 ◼   ► right and they're not so secretive about

00:57:20 ◼   ► way they don't have done you know and I

00:57:24 ◼   ► feel you know I've always said this to

00:57:26 ◼   ► that you know and then still continues

00:57:28 ◼   ► even now that jobs gone but jobs

00:57:29 ◼   ► explanations on stage talking about

00:57:32 ◼   ► products really i always thought they

00:57:34 ◼   ► were incredibly insightful and and

00:57:37 ◼   ► honest about where the where Apple was

00:57:39 ◼   ► coming from when they made the thing you

00:57:42 ◼   ► know that there was like an honest

00:57:43 ◼   ► explanation of here's what we were

00:57:45 ◼   ► thinking we could do and here's how we

00:57:46 ◼   ► did it

00:57:46 ◼   ► yeah i went back and watch the imac

00:57:51 ◼   ► unveiling which I'd never and i think

00:57:55 ◼   ► i've actually seen that before I don't

00:57:58 ◼   ► think i'm losing what's he wearing like

00:58:00 ◼   ► a weird suit yeah he was wearing ass 12

00:58:02 ◼   ► who's wearing a jacket

00:58:04 ◼   ► it was like a suit with us with a

00:58:06 ◼   ► button-up shirt button at the top of

00:58:07 ◼   ► that i was weird as I guess it's sort of

00:58:12 ◼   ► like if you ever thought like you know

00:58:14 ◼   ► in the heyday and that the whole decade

00:58:16 ◼   ► long run if you ever like cross your

00:58:18 ◼   ► mind like why does he wear the same

00:58:19 ◼   ► stuff every day on then you look at some

00:58:22 ◼   ► of the stuff he wore before we settled

00:58:23 ◼   ► on that and you're like maybe he was

00:58:24 ◼   ► right to settle on the black certain

00:58:28 ◼   ► genes and that's it

00:58:29 ◼   ► get some goofy outfits in this first

00:58:32 ◼   ► couple years

00:58:33 ◼   ► yeah he swore us like a sweater vest for

00:58:39 ◼   ► all for a long time right you have the

00:58:40 ◼   ► do you have a link to that youtube is on

00:58:42 ◼   ► youtube

00:58:43 ◼   ► yes it doesn't your i can find it for

00:58:45 ◼   ► you should tell me don't put that in the

00:58:47 ◼   ► show channel

00:58:48 ◼   ► yeah but it's interesting though it's

00:58:51 ◼   ► just funny how am I eat out the mouse is

00:58:53 ◼   ► like the best master never make it

00:58:55 ◼   ► you know you could get people fired up

00:58:57 ◼   ► around that you know this this is why on

00:58:59 ◼   ► is a enormous fan of the hockey puck are

00:59:01 ◼   ► you kidding me loved it and she African

00:59:04 ◼   ► she tweeted about it a couple months ago

00:59:05 ◼   ► and a couple of other of our nerd

00:59:07 ◼   ► friends a couple of them chimed in and

00:59:09 ◼   ► said you know I liked it too

00:59:11 ◼   ► it was not universally despised although

00:59:14 ◼   ► i think it was majority despised yeah I

00:59:19 ◼   ► had I had a little like they use this

00:59:20 ◼   ► old like this clip on things these

00:59:22 ◼   ► plastic like I think clip-on tie but

00:59:26 ◼   ► basically a piece of plastic you clicked

00:59:28 ◼   ► on it to make it a more like a normal

00:59:30 ◼   ► Mouse yeah I I never had a computer that

00:59:33 ◼   ► came with one of the brown my so I never

00:59:35 ◼   ► really spent a lot of time with it

00:59:37 ◼   ► I mean it's but i guess the argument the

00:59:41 ◼   ► main argument about it was that because

00:59:42 ◼   ► it was perfectly round there was no way

00:59:44 ◼   ► to tell which way it would when you just

00:59:46 ◼   ► held it right now looking at was the

00:59:48 ◼   ► necessary i was with the orientation was

00:59:49 ◼   ► yeah yeah and I did not a fast a lot of

00:59:54 ◼   ► other is uncomfortable to it was wide

00:59:59 ◼   ► width

00:59:59 ◼   ► width

01:00:00 ◼   ► I like because it just fit that felt

01:00:02 ◼   ► good but I couldn't couldn't tell which

01:00:03 ◼   ► one's going to let me do the second

01:00:05 ◼   ► sponsor break and then we can wrap up

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01:00:19 ◼   ► stalks coffee you drink coffee John i do

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01:00:26 ◼   ► tried the talks i have not yet but it's

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01:00:30 ◼   ► but this is see this is why they're

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01:00:33 ◼   ► know you get me that there are a lot of

01:00:35 ◼   ► people out there just like you who are

01:00:36 ◼   ► coffee drinkers talk show listeners and

01:00:40 ◼   ► you listen to it and you hear me say

01:00:41 ◼   ► these good things about talks and you

01:00:42 ◼   ► think you know what I'm going to get

01:00:43 ◼   ► around that I'm going to sign up for

01:00:44 ◼   ► that but you haven't done yet

01:00:47 ◼   ► well I'm telling you that you should get

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01:00:51 ◼   ► sign up and try it and you're going to

01:00:52 ◼   ► thank me later and you're gonna look

01:00:54 ◼   ► here some of the tweets i still get I've

01:00:55 ◼   ► i save these tweets

01:00:57 ◼   ► here's a tweet from Terra man minn

01:01:00 ◼   ► alright trying out talks coffee your

01:01:02 ◼   ► sponsorship of groupers talk show worked

01:01:05 ◼   ► I'm excited well I guarantee she's gonna

01:01:07 ◼   ► be happy that she did it

01:01:08 ◼   ► here's another one Matthew rather long

01:01:13 ◼   ► time listener the talk show is ready

01:01:17 ◼   ► tweeted I thought the coffee from the

01:01:18 ◼   ► big-box membership store was ok then i

01:01:21 ◼   ► tried talks coffee can't drink that shit

01:01:24 ◼   ► anymore i'm too that's how good talks

01:01:27 ◼   ► that's the end I'm telling you that's

01:01:28 ◼   ► the biggest downside to talks is you

01:01:30 ◼   ► sign up for tongues they before you've

01:01:34 ◼   ► signed up they've gone around the world

01:01:36 ◼   ► source the best beans from all around

01:01:38 ◼   ► the globe

01:01:39 ◼   ► they've roasted them themselves just

01:01:41 ◼   ► write soon as they roast them they seal

01:01:44 ◼   ► them up and then they send them out to

01:01:46 ◼   ► the membership they send them out

01:01:47 ◼   ► fresh roasted coffee sealed tight shows

01:01:50 ◼   ► up at your door

01:01:51 ◼   ► the only downside to this is the best

01:01:53 ◼   ► coffee in the world roasted to

01:01:55 ◼   ► perfection fresh sent to your door the

01:01:57 ◼   ► downside is you get harder and harder to

01:01:59 ◼   ► drink stuff that not talks coffee

01:02:01 ◼   ► because everything else starts tasting

01:02:03 ◼   ► like like crap i can't say enough good

01:02:06 ◼   ► things about them i keep getting these

01:02:09 ◼   ► tweets and emails from people who are

01:02:11 ◼   ► you know why I listened to it I tried it

01:02:12 ◼   ► you were right it's great

01:02:13 ◼   ► I don't don't think about is something

01:02:16 ◼   ► going to eventually do it now you're

01:02:18 ◼   ► gonna thank me for it you can go there

01:02:19 ◼   ► you'd end the best part is a great deal

01:02:21 ◼   ► this is to me is the the genius of their

01:02:23 ◼   ► business model is this free trial

01:02:24 ◼   ► because nobody wants to sign up for a

01:02:27 ◼   ► subscription site unseen no matter how

01:02:30 ◼   ► many good things i say about them

01:02:31 ◼   ► they're not nobody why I feel like a lot

01:02:33 ◼   ► of people you need nobody wants to say

01:02:34 ◼   ► I'm gonna spend you know however much

01:02:36 ◼   ► money a month and then I've got if I

01:02:38 ◼   ► don't like it if I'm not satisfied i

01:02:40 ◼   ► gotta back out

01:02:40 ◼   ► you don't have to take my word for it

01:02:42 ◼   ► free trial they'll just send you some

01:02:44 ◼   ► and you're going to try and then you're

01:02:45 ◼   ► going to think when I was not I should

01:02:46 ◼   ► have just listened to him and paid for

01:02:48 ◼   ► it and signed up so go ahead talk story

01:02:50 ◼   ► do x.org go check them out if you drink

01:02:54 ◼   ► coffee you're gonna thank me later

01:02:56 ◼   ► what else we got left on the agenda

01:03:02 ◼   ► here's a question I and again I I this

01:03:05 ◼   ► is one of the reasons why i somehow i

01:03:07 ◼   ► sometimes feel out of place talking

01:03:09 ◼   ► about the stock is I'm not really a

01:03:10 ◼   ► stock expert and in my apples stock

01:03:13 ◼   ► price is not really the reason that I

01:03:16 ◼   ► follow them i don't own apple stock

01:03:19 ◼   ► because I don't feel like it would be

01:03:20 ◼   ► appropriate with what i do but i do feel

01:03:27 ◼   ► though that it's it is like it when it

01:03:30 ◼   ► really fluctuates like it has recently

01:03:32 ◼   ► it it's a level of absurdity that even

01:03:34 ◼   ► somebody like me is not an expert can

01:03:36 ◼   ► can see that this just is irrational you

01:03:40 ◼   ► know that it's not built on based on

01:03:42 ◼   ► what what investors called the

01:03:43 ◼   ► fundamentals meaning the numbers right

01:03:45 ◼   ► there's there's so many it's like 12

01:03:50 ◼   ► dimensional chip is like trying to

01:03:52 ◼   ► understand well dimensional chest

01:03:53 ◼   ► there's so many other things that go

01:03:55 ◼   ► into it so many and so many things based

01:03:57 ◼   ► there just straight-out gambling that

01:04:01 ◼   ► have nothing to do with the company at

01:04:02 ◼   ► all like these options like these option

01:04:04 ◼   ► calls that it it seems like they're just

01:04:08 ◼   ► better off not worry about it

01:04:11 ◼   ► I so there's a there's a measurement of

01:04:14 ◼   ► a company's stock price called the the

01:04:16 ◼   ► p/e ratio price-to-earnings and again

01:04:21 ◼   ► correct me if I'm wrong but the basic

01:04:22 ◼   ► idea is you take the company's profits

01:04:26 ◼   ► and you multiply it by a certain or you

01:04:29 ◼   ► take the company's stock price and you

01:04:30 ◼   ► divide it by what their prophets are and

01:04:33 ◼   ► that's the p/e ratio in other words the

01:04:35 ◼   ► price of the stock versus how much

01:04:36 ◼   ► profit they're making I guess quarterly

01:04:38 ◼   ► and like the average for the S&P 500 is

01:04:44 ◼   ► 15 in other words the average stock

01:04:46 ◼   ► price of a big company is about 15 times

01:04:49 ◼   ► the profit of the company and you know

01:04:52 ◼   ► some companies hire some companies are

01:04:53 ◼   ► lower but you know 15 and to me seems

01:04:55 ◼   ► like a reasonable i did that somehow it

01:05:00 ◼   ► makes sense to me that seems about right

01:05:02 ◼   ► what 15 is a you know for years

01:05:07 ◼   ► quarterly you know so a company is worth

01:05:10 ◼   ► about four years times its profits I

01:05:12 ◼   ► don't know sounds about right

01:05:13 ◼   ► Apple's is it like 10 and if you

01:05:16 ◼   ► subtract the hundred billion dollars in

01:05:18 ◼   ► cash that they have in the bank which

01:05:20 ◼   ► seems fair because if you're just going

01:05:22 ◼   ► to say here's what the company's worth

01:05:23 ◼   ► which is what the stock price is

01:05:25 ◼   ► supposed to represent the cast you

01:05:28 ◼   ► should be able to just subtract from

01:05:29 ◼   ► that if you subtract that massive amount

01:05:31 ◼   ► of cash

01:05:32 ◼   ► it's nine so there-there p/e ratio is

01:05:35 ◼   ► way less than the average company yet

01:05:38 ◼   ► they've been in the midst of this

01:05:40 ◼   ► incredible growth over the last couple

01:05:42 ◼   ► of years and the number that gets me is

01:05:45 ◼   ► is Amazon Amazon p/e ratio and I'm not

01:05:48 ◼   ► making this up

01:05:48 ◼   ► it's it's like 2,600 this is I stood

01:05:53 ◼   ► it's not an exaggeration there you know

01:05:55 ◼   ► amazon lives in like this I i will link

01:05:57 ◼   ► to a magical acs article while ago that

01:05:59 ◼   ► Amazon lives in this world worth

01:06:01 ◼   ► investors and do not care about their

01:06:03 ◼   ► profits that their you know their

01:06:05 ◼   ► stories is not as bears no relation to

01:06:08 ◼   ► their profitability whatsoever there the

01:06:10 ◼   ► market share poster child right and a

01:06:13 ◼   ► little I think it's almost the opposite

01:06:14 ◼   ► right there is getting really didn't you

01:06:16 ◼   ► in front for you in the reason are they

01:06:18 ◼   ► have profits massive profits i just i

01:06:23 ◼   ► don't get that it's it seems like it's

01:06:25 ◼   ► still the same old dot-com bubble

01:06:27 ◼   ► mentality where do they do yeah they're

01:06:30 ◼   ► not making any money but eventually

01:06:31 ◼   ► eventually they'll make money on amazon

01:06:35 ◼   ► has been doing this for 15 years

01:06:39 ◼   ► yeah I feel like with amazon amazon too

01:06:41 ◼   ► interesting and I don't have to admit I

01:06:42 ◼   ► don't get that strategy like to me it's

01:06:45 ◼   ► just it's not just because it's apple

01:06:48 ◼   ► but I i do something and I think it's

01:06:50 ◼   ► part of what just appeals to me about

01:06:51 ◼   ► the whole thing is that I understand

01:06:53 ◼   ► what Apple's doing is making money every

01:06:56 ◼   ► time they sell something and then just

01:06:58 ◼   ► putting that money away and not

01:07:00 ◼   ► squandering it now i understand that

01:07:01 ◼   ► that's not how I behaved in real life

01:07:03 ◼   ► I'm a command that squander every dollar

01:07:05 ◼   ► but i wish that i had the discipline to

01:07:08 ◼   ► build up a huge you know

01:07:10 ◼   ► hundred-million-dollar dashboard and

01:07:13 ◼   ► then before the show when I was making

01:07:14 ◼   ► notes i anchor rope down the hundred i

01:07:17 ◼   ► want to talk about this and I wrote down

01:07:18 ◼   ► a hundred billion cash and I thought

01:07:19 ◼   ► that can't be right know that it it's 10

01:07:21 ◼   ► billion right can't be a hundred but it

01:07:24 ◼   ► is it's a hundred have a hundred billion

01:07:25 ◼   ► dollars in cash that they're just

01:07:26 ◼   ► sitting on that when I wrote it down it

01:07:29 ◼   ► seemed like a preposterous number right

01:07:31 ◼   ► it does seem preposterous seems crazy

01:07:36 ◼   ► right but it doesn't seem to have any

01:07:39 ◼   ► kind of value in it doesn't it doesn't

01:07:41 ◼   ► become valuable in the stock and you

01:07:44 ◼   ► know and I you know I guess you know I

01:07:47 ◼   ► you could argue maybe reasonably that

01:07:49 ◼   ► the run-up that Apple had last year over

01:07:52 ◼   ► the summer when the stock price reached

01:07:54 ◼   ► its peak maybe that was a little

01:07:55 ◼   ► irrational to just as irrational as the

01:07:57 ◼   ► dive that it's taken in the last three

01:08:00 ◼   ► months but even at its peak their PE

01:08:05 ◼   ► ratio was still like never got more than

01:08:08 ◼   ► like 12 or 13 it still never reach the

01:08:10 ◼   ► average p/e ratio of a company in the

01:08:13 ◼   ► SMP 500 that you could make a reasonable

01:08:16 ◼   ► case that only looking for a PE value of

01:08:19 ◼   ► the average company SMP 500 that Apple

01:08:21 ◼   ► stock should you know should be up and

01:08:23 ◼   ► around under 850 or something like that

01:08:25 ◼   ► i had a screen capture that I had for a

01:08:29 ◼   ► little while and finally eventually just

01:08:31 ◼   ► deleted because i didn't know where to

01:08:32 ◼   ► post it but it was a our local paper at

01:08:36 ◼   ► I follow their twitter account and I

01:08:38 ◼   ► think they're just they're point wire

01:08:39 ◼   ► stories for this stuff because they

01:08:41 ◼   ► don't they don't follow this correctly

01:08:43 ◼   ► themselves but it was back in october i

01:08:47 ◼   ► think when they when apple and both

01:08:49 ◼   ► Apple and Amazon

01:08:50 ◼   ► supporting their their quarterly numbers

01:08:53 ◼   ► and apple had a good quarter missed the

01:08:58 ◼   ► analyst estimates of course again it but

01:09:02 ◼   ► a amazon reported a loss if i remember

01:09:06 ◼   ► correctly

01:09:07 ◼   ► ya think the last quarter and also to

01:09:09 ◼   ► like a pretty big loss like 247 million

01:09:11 ◼   ► dollar yeah and both of that both of the

01:09:13 ◼   ► both of the tweets which came within 10

01:09:16 ◼   ► 15 minutes of each other something like

01:09:18 ◼   ► that said what about each of them apple

01:09:22 ◼   ► mrs. mrs. analyst estimates amazon mrs.

01:09:26 ◼   ► analyst estimates that is as if the two

01:09:30 ◼   ► both had equally bad quarters right when

01:09:33 ◼   ► amazon reported a big loss and apple

01:09:36 ◼   ► made a whole crapped on a mine

01:09:39 ◼   ► yeah and you've written about this

01:09:41 ◼   ► pretty pretty well about the this this

01:09:44 ◼   ► that the one Apple does miss the

01:09:46 ◼   ► analysts projections that it it is so

01:09:50 ◼   ► the way that gets played in the stories

01:09:52 ◼   ► is so misleading it is and again it's

01:09:56 ◼   ► like the everyone to be a reflexive

01:09:57 ◼   ► defend apple at all costs and paint no

01:10:01 ◼   ► matter what the news is good for Apple

01:10:03 ◼   ► but it's this emphasizes miss miss miss

01:10:07 ◼   ► miss miss and doesn't mention that it

01:10:09 ◼   ► was the Miss involved 8.2 million

01:10:12 ◼   ► dollars in profit right and it's sort of

01:10:14 ◼   ► i mean i think the idea if you know if

01:10:17 ◼   ► you wanted if you want to take their

01:10:18 ◼   ► point of view is that it's an industry

01:10:19 ◼   ► shorthand for if you have money and

01:10:22 ◼   ► apple you might have over you might have

01:10:26 ◼   ► just overestimated because you know if

01:10:29 ◼   ► you were betting on what the analysts

01:10:31 ◼   ► said then they weren't quite right but

01:10:34 ◼   ► for the average person it doesn't they

01:10:37 ◼   ► don't they don't understand that you

01:10:39 ◼   ► just think Apple had a bad quarter right

01:10:41 ◼   ► and and it's up you know and it's

01:10:44 ◼   ► entirely yet because you don't they

01:10:46 ◼   ► don't put that context in their right

01:10:47 ◼   ► and it's it's emphasizes only they it

01:10:51 ◼   ► emphasizes only the mists and the missus

01:10:54 ◼   ► just of numbers an analyst pull out of

01:10:56 ◼   ► their hats

01:10:57 ◼   ► I mean I not entirely that you know i

01:11:00 ◼   ► spaced on something but it's the right

01:11:01 ◼   ► they've got spreadsheets that they're

01:11:02 ◼   ► looking at but they're just making

01:11:04 ◼   ► a guess and and I guess it hopefully in

01:11:06 ◼   ► most cases and educated guess but it's

01:11:08 ◼   ► still just a gas and you look at things

01:11:10 ◼   ► like well year-over-year how are they

01:11:12 ◼   ► doing and it's up you know even in the

01:11:16 ◼   ► corner with the miss it was op up it's

01:11:18 ◼   ► just that I it just wasn't up as high as

01:11:21 ◼   ► a lot of these analysts had guests and

01:11:24 ◼   ► it's just you know and again i'm not

01:11:25 ◼   ► saying that they shouldn't report bad

01:11:27 ◼   ► but it just seems like the way that they

01:11:28 ◼   ► presented is so heavy-handed and I think

01:11:32 ◼   ► part of it even if you don't even have

01:11:33 ◼   ► to be at having apple bias a specific

01:11:36 ◼   ► anti-apple bias but i think it's this

01:11:38 ◼   ► mindset that we've written so many good

01:11:40 ◼   ► things about apple and their success

01:11:42 ◼   ► that we need to emphasize anything

01:11:44 ◼   ► that's bad and the name of objectivity

01:11:47 ◼   ► you know I think that you know it gets

01:11:51 ◼   ► back to wide everybody jumped on this

01:11:53 ◼   ► antennagate story you know spice such

01:11:57 ◼   ► fervor that well here's something we can

01:12:00 ◼   ► say that Apple did that is imperfect and

01:12:02 ◼   ► now we're going to hammer it into the

01:12:05 ◼   ► ground

01:12:06 ◼   ► it's very strange to me that they come

01:12:09 ◼   ► up with such a vastly different numbers

01:12:11 ◼   ► it is and I'll tell you know here's the

01:12:14 ◼   ► point I wanted to make was that it seems

01:12:16 ◼   ► like apples getting hurt because for a

01:12:18 ◼   ► long time Apple would offer their own

01:12:20 ◼   ► guidance then they still do I think

01:12:22 ◼   ► they're legally obligated to that the

01:12:23 ◼   ► end after they report the last quarter

01:12:25 ◼   ► they offer guidance for the coming

01:12:27 ◼   ► quarter and apple notoriously offered

01:12:30 ◼   ► sandbag guidance you know in other words

01:12:33 ◼   ► you know they was not what Apple

01:12:37 ◼   ► honestly expected to report it was it

01:12:39 ◼   ► was a number that it was an unbeliever

01:12:41 ◼   ► shirts famous country hell where ya at

01:12:43 ◼   ► this

01:12:43 ◼   ► it was a number of analysts predict

01:12:44 ◼   ► their their numbers and maybe a little

01:12:49 ◼   ► you know somewhat higher than apples

01:12:51 ◼   ► project own projections but all of them

01:12:54 ◼   ► were short of reality and I think that

01:12:55 ◼   ► what's happened over the last year that

01:12:57 ◼   ► you know they've finally caught on that

01:13:01 ◼   ► Apple's right projections are so low

01:13:04 ◼   ► that they've adjusted their own to be

01:13:06 ◼   ► even higher to compensate and that

01:13:08 ◼   ► they've really more gotten good right

01:13:11 ◼   ► right it's take that even the miss that

01:13:14 ◼   ► they reported last quarter wasn't that

01:13:17 ◼   ► far

01:13:17 ◼   ► off it was actually so that gets really

01:13:19 ◼   ► not so much that Apple missed or four

01:13:22 ◼   ► came way below it was that these

01:13:25 ◼   ► analysts projections are projections you

01:13:27 ◼   ► want to be spot-on for once instead of

01:13:29 ◼   ► coming in way under and having apple

01:13:31 ◼   ► blow them away right which is another

01:13:36 ◼   ► yeah it's just another element of the

01:13:38 ◼   ► the whole thing that makes this all so

01:13:41 ◼   ► incomprehensible and I throw my hands up

01:13:45 ◼   ► that trying to figure this stuff out and

01:13:47 ◼   ► it doesn't seem like you know you always

01:13:49 ◼   ► think well maybe maybe the people who

01:13:50 ◼   ► are really into this stuff they know all

01:13:52 ◼   ► this and put it really i don't i don't

01:13:54 ◼   ► get that sense now and at the analytics

01:13:57 ◼   ► you know honest and I bet most of the

01:13:59 ◼   ► people to listen to the show you know

01:14:01 ◼   ► about a lot of doing some apple stock

01:14:03 ◼   ► and hopefully the way that they do it

01:14:04 ◼   ► it's just buy it when somebody you know

01:14:07 ◼   ► like last week like when somebody print

01:14:09 ◼   ► something stupid and then the stock

01:14:10 ◼   ► drops down by a dent and then just put

01:14:14 ◼   ► it away and don't look at it and and you

01:14:16 ◼   ► know assume that it's gone up that and

01:14:18 ◼   ► we'll keep going up in the long run over

01:14:20 ◼   ► time but that if you i-i've if i owned

01:14:22 ◼   ► apple stock and like looked at the

01:14:24 ◼   ► numbers and week-to-week and jackass by

01:14:28 ◼   ► jackass I i would have indigestion so

01:14:34 ◼   ► much of it and the thing is it it's

01:14:36 ◼   ► there's that famous phrase that's always

01:14:38 ◼   ► in if you get like a statement from your

01:14:42 ◼   ► mutual fund company it's like past

01:14:44 ◼   ► performance is no indication of future

01:14:45 ◼   ► future performance or something like

01:14:47 ◼   ► that right and it gets back to that

01:14:48 ◼   ► point about whether or not Apple needs a

01:14:51 ◼   ► hit and whether or not they sold a lot

01:14:56 ◼   ► of iphones this past quarter and that's

01:14:58 ◼   ► that's done it's right it's the stuff

01:15:01 ◼   ► that they're going to do in the future

01:15:02 ◼   ► that's going to get you

01:15:04 ◼   ► growth potential out of stock it will

01:15:08 ◼   ► provide provided the market doesn't do

01:15:09 ◼   ► something you know dumbass like it's

01:15:11 ◼   ► been doing the last last week so you can

01:15:15 ◼   ► I you kind of have to decide based on

01:15:18 ◼   ► the history of the company

01:15:20 ◼   ► I mean I guess you basically based this

01:15:22 ◼   ► judgment on the history of the company

01:15:23 ◼   ► and the management of the company

01:15:24 ◼   ► whether or not you think that they're

01:15:26 ◼   ► going to be able to do something in the

01:15:29 ◼   ► future that's going to be a big hit

01:15:31 ◼   ► going to get a lot of growth out of and

01:15:32 ◼   ► I don't understand in VA you could say

01:15:34 ◼   ► that Steve Jobs is the only one that

01:15:36 ◼   ► could innovate apple and so therefore i

01:15:39 ◼   ► don't think the company's gonna do you

01:15:41 ◼   ► know they're just gonna make iPhones and

01:15:42 ◼   ► iPads and then max for the rest of

01:15:44 ◼   ► forever and never will never have

01:15:47 ◼   ► another breakout product but I don't

01:15:50 ◼   ► that seems incredibly short-sighted to

01:15:52 ◼   ► me and I don't want to stop but just I

01:15:55 ◼   ► like the thing and it's I you know that

01:15:58 ◼   ► I I just feel like all of them all of

01:16:01 ◼   ► their executives but you know Tim Cook

01:16:03 ◼   ► in particular since he's the one you

01:16:04 ◼   ► know he's the one who sits on the throne

01:16:06 ◼   ► now I have my hat is off to him for just

01:16:10 ◼   ► not blowing his stack going nuts because

01:16:14 ◼   ► there's no way he can win and he surely

01:16:17 ◼   ► knows it right so he's getting

01:16:19 ◼   ► excoriated now because Apple hasn't

01:16:21 ◼   ► released a major new innovation

01:16:23 ◼   ► disruption since he took over as CEO

01:16:26 ◼   ► ah and if and when eventually they do I

01:16:30 ◼   ► did guaranteed 9 x 9 99 times out of a

01:16:34 ◼   ► hundred ninety-nine chance out of a

01:16:35 ◼   ► hundred it's going to be dismissed as

01:16:39 ◼   ► wow that's terrible

01:16:40 ◼   ► this guy's no Steve Jobs and even if

01:16:42 ◼   ► jobs had died two years earlier and the

01:16:47 ◼   ► ipad exactly as it is exactly as it

01:16:50 ◼   ► wasn't 2010 was introduced under tim

01:16:53 ◼   ► cook that whole it's just a big iphone

01:16:57 ◼   ► man you know that's it it's just it's 99

01:17:00 ◼   ► inside phone

01:17:01 ◼   ► it would have been ratcheted up to 11 as

01:17:04 ◼   ► it's nothing but a big iphone total turd

01:17:07 ◼   ► this guy is no Steve Jobs all he did is