29: The Mac Faithful, with John Moltz
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this is the talk show with John Gruber
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on John Gruber your host my special
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guest this week is John Smoltz you
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do yourself an impression that's not
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really a zelda I can't do is element
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impression really i'm sort of just doing
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a very like what he did is he just
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instantly and naturally did like a very
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professional introduction right off the
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you know I can't do it and I don't do
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impressions and and development has such
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a great voice my god I told me the end
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of the show it's like like voices on
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podcasts are like fonts for reading and
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like his his voice font is just so great
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it's got like this just incredibly rich
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voice that i do not know ya sa unlike
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you got the big got the big backpage
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column and in Macworld i did this we get
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something for it did I think its new
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right yeah that's the februari times the
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fairies pile up from issue which i
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believe is the latest i always get them
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i always get them later
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I'm always like the last person to get
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them for some reason and I and people I
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get confused because I feel like here's
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I've got two of them here in front of me
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and the covers are very similar their
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white covers with red macworld and fonts
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and they both have pictures of white
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ipods on the front one of them is
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februari 2013 with one's November 2012
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november two thousand six but anyway
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it's the februari 1i like your little
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blurb on the very nice website every
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told people to go to the newsstand to
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read that many wrote airport where do
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people buy magazines i don't know where
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do you used to be you can buy them
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everywhere it's funny cause it made me
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laugh though because I did realize that
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that was thinking about i was like
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thinking your time telling people to go
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out and buy the magazine where the heck
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are they gonna going to drive to the
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airport if I if I didn't have a
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subscription in that world i'm not sure
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yeah addicts barnes and noble I can't
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think what magazine yeah i mean those
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places do but bars closed
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we're borders and close so in into coma
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I don't think I mean other than used was
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a great used bookstores but other than
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used bookstores we can't buy a book now
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there's no use magazine stores
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yeah Peter like that i think about it
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yesterday the moments are that is Yeah
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Yeah right student like you don't want
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to ask for you don't want to go there
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don't go into those places but the DJ
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it's funny though because your column on
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this was this the februari 2013 issue
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America and it's not online yet is that
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right yeah I always get so confused when
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I don't even do they even but what right
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what goes on light when I don't know
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what the deal is frankly what I don't
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think your thing is it online though is
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not now i know i'm almost positive that
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it is not i look forward to and and but
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it's I think they eventually do that
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though it's perfectly time though
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because i feel like its it that the the
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headline says it all why Apple drives
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people crazy and which is which is what
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ya a from the last time you were on the
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show because we were I asked you about
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it and I feel like it's really come up
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again this week all over the place like
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I feel like everybody don't know it's
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like this this pre earning say because
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what it's a week from today when apples
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one week from today or winter or is it
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wednesdays usually Wednesday or Tuesday
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or Wednesday right well it'll be next
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what's next what's your middle of next
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week 17 things sometime next week either
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wednesday or thursday i think that Apple
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do it and I think that's part of it i
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think it's partly because we're one week
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out from their earnings and everybody's
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piling on but there is there's like this
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the the collective craziness that Apple
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drives people to sanity and stupidity
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and and just you know to turning off of
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frontal lobe is it i get a peek forever
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I feel this week I maybe i'm just
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sensitive to it maybe it's a wonderful
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start looking for that I completely
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I think just just craziness that our
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craziness but I don't want to ask you to
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do a a reading of your column but what
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is that can you restate it though can
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you give the gist of it of your argument
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of what drives what about Apple drives
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well and I feel like they're there's a
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lot of reasons that going to and there's
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a lot of things that factors that go
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into this and I was only able to because
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of because of the size constraints of
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the back page only able to go into some
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of them but a lot of it was one of the
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factors i talked about was this sort of
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checklist mentality that people to
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understand apples product development
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process and they sort of apply the same
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view that they would to any other
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product any other product category coke
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pepsi when I mean soda cars anything and
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they the easiest way to evaluate stuff
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is just to have a checklist which is
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kind of what places like consumer
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reports use and a lot of the technology
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sites use to do evaluation of products
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because it's just easier that way and so
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they have this checklist mentality and
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they go down the checklist and apple
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products often don't mean they're not
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they're not built that way they're built
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for fit and finish and design and and
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many other factors that don't easily
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lend themselves to be evaluated by a
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checklist process and so these guys go
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through and they mostly guys and they
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say you know the samsung device better
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because it's got a bigger screen or it's
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got its got a projector and it and which
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is which is it that is true it is there
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is a phone out with a little and
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projector which i think is just utter
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madness but there is there is something
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that you can check off on a list and
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apple will never have a phone with a
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projector in it so they give more checks
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to the samsung device and apples device
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gets fewer and so they say the samsung
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device 1 and then what happens is mac
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users of Apple fans get into the
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comments and start screaming loudly that
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they don't understand what they're a
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bunch of idiots and and this starts this
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sort of feedback loop for insanity where
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these people think that we're all
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completely unreasonable because you know
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they're fully scientific process as
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determined that the samsung devices
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better and with it so therefore they try
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and come up with an explanation for why
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are we so so bent out of shape about
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this and they're only explanation that
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they can come up with is that it's a
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religion that's there been one of its
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and never gets old happened to never do
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I really never detect effort is well and
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I'm part of it too is in its it's that
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f-word faithful yeah yeah yeahs the
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Apple faithful or sometimes I still see
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I just saw yesterday and it's one of
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those things where I never know where
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there is linked to it and throw traffic
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at this crap just to make a joke or just
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let it slide but I let it slide but it
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was an argument and and the the gist of
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it was that the people who buy output
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all apple products are you know the the
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religious fervor to fuck but they called
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him the mac faithful it's the mac
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faithful who are buying the iphones and
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ipads and macs when when you know you
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just took 35 number 35 million and a
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quarter i mean yeah right
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15 minute they're expecting to sell 50
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million iphones in the last three months
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alone when they report their numbers
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next week and maintenance the matter
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where there is a little bit higher a
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little bit lower it's not going to be
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too far away from 50 million they don't
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sell 50 million max you know it sounds
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crazy like the whole idea that there's
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an apple faithful and that's who they
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sell to is wrongheaded nuts too but i
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think that that they still toss around
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the term Mac faithful to describe them
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shows just how burned into their lizard
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brains this this this view of Apple is
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ya know i think i was with you the last
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time ri-ight I put it in context of like
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first impressions and that people's
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brains like were evolutionarily wired to
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make first impression or not even first
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impressions but you know initial
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impressions of people and people don't
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really change that much overtime and so
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we're just not wired to change our mind
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about something or thing you know and
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evolutionary there's no reason to to
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really have a conception of a
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corporation because there weren't any
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but I i think our brains are just you
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know we treat them the same way we have
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emotional the way they have an emotional
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response to a person you have an
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emotional response to companies and that
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I think it's a lost a lot of people who
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formed their view of apple in the
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nineties one of ya know the company was
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in trouble and it looked like you could
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really make the argument that their
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basic strategy of of controlling the
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whole experience doing the software
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we're doing things their own way that
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you could you know reasonably make a
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data back argument then that it was
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that's the wrong way to go and that
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doesn't work and that the other way the
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the pc way the open way of using you
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know Microsoft operating system and
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having a whole ecosystem of crazy you
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know configurations of hardware that's
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when you can back that up there and I
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feel people burn that into their mind
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that Apple is stubborn and wrong and a
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niche and designs for thuy design
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aficionados and it's not successful and
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that's the way it is and everything
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that's happened since that seems to poke
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a hole in that they just see that as a
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fluke you know if it that you know
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things will right itself things will
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right themselves yeah thnkx will right
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themselves eventually have a cute little
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phrase for people to this kind of
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thought process which is people cutting
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themselves on Occam's razor because they
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it's a simple explanation and usually
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you know they say that simple
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explanation is usually the right one
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when it's not really i mean it's not
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true in all cases and that's not true in
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this case and there's the the idea that
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the mobile landscape is exactly the same
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as the pc landscape was and then in the
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nineties is not it's really not the case
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there are certain similarities but it
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yes definitely to say that it's playing
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it's going to play out exactly the same
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as just wrong it well and here's the
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other thing I keep coming back to and I
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this is that this is an idea that I
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could expand into it pretty good article
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maybe hang out i want to i want to take
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that take that down i want to get this
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down so i can just dealing primarily
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with people worrying about today is iOS
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its phones and the tablet and then when
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they say that Apple is going to run into
◼
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the same problem that they did before
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its basic argument that android is the
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new windows and iOS is the new mac and
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what happened to apple with a mac
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against windows in the nineties is
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repeating itself now but its Android and
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Google instead of microsoft windows and
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there's a couple of problems with that
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1i Apple back in the nineties with the
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mac never ever ever had this sort of
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success that they haven't
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out with iOS in terms of the millions of
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users and brand awareness they didn't
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have the retail presence because i
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didn't even have retail stores even so
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many things that are different right
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they were not the world's most
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profitable company at some point you
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know when the mac was at its peak and
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windows 95 hadn't come out yet they
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weren't the most claiming they were
◼
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doing better than they were in those
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dark years of 96 97 98 but they were
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never the world's most profitable
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company they were never the biggest pc
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seller they never had hit you know
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marketshare like they have with the ipad
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tablets none of these things retro but i
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would just say I would push all that
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aside and and just go back and just
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revisit the idea that something actually
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went wrong for apple in the pc industry
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they did have a couple of bad years but
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they were had really bad management at
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that right i just look at I mean look at
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where the mac is today as 25 or 26
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consecutive quarters of outgrowing the
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pc industry as a whole
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right like and it's very profitable I
◼
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like did Apple actually lose the pc Wars
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yeah I mean I don't even see the
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argument of that right you know that
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they're yes there were a couple of years
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where things were bad but in hindsight
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and given the stability that that's
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happened in the last 15 years with the
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how can you argue that they even lost
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that if you add the ipad and now as
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right consider that a computer is
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there's you can't really say that I i
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think and i think it let's just call the
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pc industry let's let's separate the
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ipad from right let's say that that's
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post-pc and let's say the pc industry is
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what we thought let's draw the line at
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2007 and say before the iphone what we
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thought of is the pc in this just tops
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and lastly my laptop's running windows
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or mac or linux and you know keyboards
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and mice and pointers that that type of
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thing i would guess that if you
◼
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separated out apples profits i'm in fact
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I don't even think i have to guess i'm
◼
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almost certain that Microsoft is still
◼
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the most profitable pc company that the
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microsoft makes more profits from what
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that definition i just made of pcs than
◼
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apple and maybe Intel makes makes the
◼
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the most i don't know but Apple
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certainly makes a lot and i'm pretty
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►
sure that they make more profit than any
◼
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other company that makes pc hardware
◼
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that they make more profit on it than HP
◼
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or any of those companies it's certainly
◼
►
a very good interesting that nobody yet
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I feel like there's still this
◼
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assumption that Apple Apple screwed the
◼
►
pooch with pcs in the ninth year it's
◼
►
interesting that nobody's done that that
◼
►
you don't see somebody I mean everybody
◼
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focuses focuses so much on mobile right
◼
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now that nobody really is are you having
◼
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that argument anymore
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no and I feel like it the time to make
◼
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it is fading too because the pc industry
◼
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is shrinking and now that it's shrinking
◼
►
I mean like I I kind of Miss spoke just
◼
►
before going on the air here i posted
◼
►
the thing about about apple and what why
◼
►
is Apple expected that was a argument
◼
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from some woman that Apple needs to
◼
►
introduce something new and I just did a
◼
►
brief piece and I just said well why
◼
►
does Apple need to do something when
◼
►
they the things that they've already got
◼
►
all profitable the mac ipad and iphone
◼
►
all profitable and growing and somebody
◼
►
pointed out that the Mac isn't actually
◼
►
growing anymore I feel like quarter
◼
►
quarter sales might even be down a
◼
►
I what I was thinking was that they're
◼
►
it's still outpacing the npc industry as
◼
►
a whole it's just that the pc industry
◼
►
as a whole is starting to shrink so fast
◼
►
that even with the mac doing well
◼
►
relative to all other pcs it's still
◼
►
actually shrinking quarter-to-quarter
◼
►
but that's all it's actually you know
◼
►
it's one of those like nice problem to
◼
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have because it's all about the ipad so
◼
►
because so many fewer laptops are being
◼
►
sold because people are buying ipads
◼
►
right at I I want and I wanted to talk
◼
►
to you about that I wanted to discuss
◼
►
that as well as that which you had it
◼
►
yeah i was just looking up the mac unit
◼
►
sales numbers and there up there up
◼
►
year-over-year but just barely
◼
►
yeah it's close it's you know it's yes
◼
►
it would be tough to say growing anymore
◼
►
yet they're still strong and compared to
◼
►
their historical knowledge they are they
◼
►
are they are literally growing its its
◼
►
but they'll have to have a pretty good
◼
►
quarter to be I think they would do it i
◼
►
think they do they are still growing but
◼
►
it's not a lot that's not right now and
◼
►
they maybe maybe these numbers for this
◼
►
last quarter will be pretty good because
◼
►
they introduced a couple of new yeah you
◼
►
know they had new imacs and they shipped
◼
►
ladies I don't know I wonder how my
◼
►
brother sure if the third i don't i
◼
►
guess the 13-inch macbook pros their
◼
►
best-selling laptop I don't know that my
◼
►
lady might wanna think the answer retina
◼
►
or at least you can get ready at the
◼
►
animal mind if they might have a really
◼
►
yeah for for max you know anybody who
◼
►
was holding out on a new imac god forbid
◼
►
anybody wait until next week to find out
◼
►
we should also know you're not a nobody
◼
►
that it actually won't show up in the
◼
►
quarterly results so because like the
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imac didn't just another thing of
◼
►
december so maybe they didn't yeah maybe
◼
►
they're it wasn't because it wasn't
◼
►
available the whole quarter maybe it
◼
►
will be this next quarter where we'll
◼
►
see you know that spike from the new the
◼
►
new introduction yeah with the holiday
◼
►
quarter usually does better than yeah
◼
►
regardless you know computers at didn't
◼
►
maybe it's not it's it's kind of a
◼
►
big-ticket christmas gift but it still
◼
►
is the sort of thing that people will
◼
►
buy and call it a Christmas game
◼
►
I'm but the thing that I think about
◼
►
that I would i think is that it's fine
◼
►
for them to go along for a while and
◼
►
just and just try and ride the growth of
◼
►
these existing products but eventually
◼
►
the Apple that we know is more about
◼
►
going into new markets and reinventing a
◼
►
new market and staking out the high-end
◼
►
and selling you know scooping up all the
◼
►
profit and leaving the low end for
◼
►
everybody else right and I'm certainly
◼
►
not arguing that they never need to
◼
►
introduce something a major new
◼
►
disruption right I I just think though
◼
►
that it's that it's goofy to say they
◼
►
needed a media and that's the thing they
◼
►
need that's the other right there's a
◼
►
big difference between they need a major
◼
►
new disruption eventually vs they need a
◼
►
major new disruption now right now right
◼
►
and that's something else I think I
◼
►
touched on that and that column is that
◼
►
the there's this myth that Apple under
◼
►
steve jobs turned out and I think we've
◼
►
talked about this before but turned out
◼
►
a groundbreaking product pretty much
◼
►
every quarter which is right in not
◼
►
always gotta work yeah every single time
◼
►
the guy came onstage sheet obliterated
◼
►
and Tim Cook still has a right and it's
◼
►
been a whole year and Tim Cook stores
◼
►
hasn't done it but if you know they they
◼
►
did you could say the imac was
◼
►
groundbreaking I guess even though the
◼
►
operating system was exactly the same as
◼
►
the previous operating system and so
◼
►
they did the imac they did the ipod
◼
►
three years later and then they did the
◼
►
iphone 6 years after the ipod write
◼
►
something like that right which is way
◼
►
longer than the scope of period we're
◼
►
looking at right now from the a brief
◼
►
everybody points to the original iPad in
◼
►
yeah so that's what get we're coming
◼
►
close to about three years we still have
◼
►
it should hit the bare minimum for
◼
►
coming up with something new
◼
►
alright so and as somebody one of the
◼
►
things i linked to recently said I think
◼
►
it was this piece from harvard business
◼
►
review by dim pelota who made the exact
◼
►
same point you just did that they went
◼
►
six years without a disruption under
◼
►
steve jobs between the ipod and an
◼
►
iphone is that when the ipad came out
◼
►
with everybody now hails as the thing
◼
►
that they need to do something like that
◼
►
again a lot of these same people said
◼
►
that just a big ipod 2g iphone that they
◼
►
didn't even count it when it appears now
◼
►
that's usually the hallmark I mean the
◼
►
iphone is the the exception I've often
◼
►
said this that it's like the holy grail
◼
►
of Apple introductions because it was
◼
►
the one that blew everybody away it blew
◼
►
you know I'd i'm assuming a blue you I
◼
►
blew the people who get apple away and
◼
►
it blew the people who don't get apple
◼
►
away everybody even the people don't
◼
►
understand the company were like wow
◼
►
yeah that's amazing what why don't you
◼
►
do that everything that was that was my
◼
►
first mac world was that one but and so
◼
►
I remember I kept saying I might've been
◼
►
sitting next to yeah right over today to
◼
►
glen freshman at the time and I think
◼
►
this is that are they all like that's it
◼
►
I that was the one where everybody
◼
►
recognized it but all the other ones
◼
►
usually are met like it's a good sign
◼
►
that Apple's on something if it's
◼
►
greeted with a collective man yeah
◼
►
you're right it's getting I've kind of
◼
►
pity the guy because I feel like it's
◼
►
gonna go on his tombstone that you know
◼
►
commander tacos famous slashdot reaction
◼
►
that original ipod that wasn't apple
◼
►
releases ipod this is from slashdot
◼
►
october2013 2001 and here's here's what
◼
►
commander talking road no wireless less
◼
►
space than a nomad no man named better
◼
►
let him also he didn't capitalize no
◼
►
matter I feel like there's like a sort
◼
►
of disdain to that you have a giant
◼
►
did you have an mp3 player before the
◼
►
ipod yes I did not Amy Amy had a 30
◼
►
something or another that's what I had
◼
►
to and it was a flash-based job yeah and
◼
►
it held ten songs 11 if you pick the
◼
►
right song right so it was cool in the
◼
►
sense like that if you are used to the
◼
►
song restrictions of a CD or a tape you
◼
►
know where you could have about one
◼
►
album worth you could do it and it was
◼
►
this device that was way lighter you
◼
►
know then a the spinning disc player and
◼
►
smaller and didn't you never had to
◼
►
worry about jostling it and having it
◼
►
skip or something like that but in
◼
►
hindsight it was a collective
◼
►
pain-in-the-ass where if you're sick of
◼
►
the tents on Iran he had like connected
◼
►
to your man it was but indicated i think
◼
►
it you sound jam yeah yeah yeah but what
◼
►
she used to manage right that's what I
◼
►
did too and at the time i got it just
◼
►
before going to Tokyo my wife and I
◼
►
spent three months in tokyo i was
◼
►
working working there and it was it was
◼
►
actually I mean for me it was pretty
◼
►
good because it was like it was like a
◼
►
shuffle was like an iPod shuffle because
◼
►
you just loaded up with a few saw
◼
►
you know what obviously more size
◼
►
constraint but I it i had a like a
◼
►
20-minute commute and it was it was
◼
►
perfect but you know it was funny the
◼
►
interface was so bad that i really do
◼
►
think no joke it was harder to find a
◼
►
specific song even though there were
◼
►
only ten or eleven songs total that down
◼
►
and I ipod yet you might have loaded was
◼
►
useless i'm at the interface for it was
◼
►
it was useless which is something that
◼
►
Apple rightly recognized there's no
◼
►
point in having the screen are you know
◼
►
what the songs are my hand right it
◼
►
shouldn't you're gonna play them at a
◼
►
random is going to land a random order
◼
►
great probably just made it worse right
◼
►
and it also comes to that thing it also
◼
►
gets to the point that Syracuse i made
◼
►
this week in an article about companies
◼
►
you know that the the software being the
◼
►
weak lincoln in all of these hardware
◼
►
products at CES like you know and that's
◼
►
the what was wrong with all the mp3
◼
►
players before the ipod was their
◼
►
software i mean the did the interface it
◼
►
was just horrendous and this is what is
◼
►
what i don't understand about this cheap
◼
►
iphone thing it is the way Apple made
◼
►
cheap ipods is by stripping out features
◼
►
and making a better more restricted
◼
►
device that just did less but did it
◼
►
really well and easily and i don't see
◼
►
how they're going to be able to do that
◼
►
with an iphone you can't strip out the
◼
►
platform you can't have one that's just
◼
►
a phone so what exactly area removing it
◼
►
and it seems like they're they're going
◼
►
you know to date they just been going
◼
►
with this last year's model thing right
◼
►
and how are they in and I don't
◼
►
understand if they're going to do that
◼
►
there's an intellectual laziness to the
◼
►
oh yes finally they're doing they're
◼
►
going to make a cheap iPhone you know
◼
►
and it's it's the same people who think
◼
►
welcome and good news you know but
◼
►
they're their arguments in favor of it
◼
►
are intellectually so lazy it really all
◼
►
comes down to what I call that the
◼
►
Church of market area it's just this
◼
►
that market shares the most important
◼
►
thing and anything that's a move for
◼
►
market share is good in anything that
◼
►
doesn't help your market share is bad
◼
►
regardless of things like profitability
◼
►
or consumer loyalty or building out the
◼
►
platform in the same way from a
◼
►
developer's perspective
◼
►
none of that matters all that matters is
◼
►
if they sold an iphone cheaper they gain
◼
►
it's john sculley says that you
◼
►
shouldn't of itself that's it it's so
◼
►
facto it would be good for apple and if
◼
►
they don't do it it's bad and john
◼
►
skelly says you should do it you should
◼
►
what way I didn't read this goalie thing
◼
►
that i have an opening basically say he
◼
►
is well as point was that they should
◼
►
make a small but I'm gonna cheaper
◼
►
iPhone to do just that you know and
◼
►
Scully is awesome so I know that he has
◼
►
a thing i didn't read it yet but he gets
◼
►
he's getting a bad rap because he he he
◼
►
Apple we didn't leave Apple in too bad a
◼
►
shape you know in the Newton thing
◼
►
didn't work out but boy he was sure was
◼
►
close to a thing you know I mean it's I
◼
►
just think he's but his business
◼
►
management is poorly suited to apples
◼
►
strength right but if I were him that
◼
►
said that if you know even given any
◼
►
left the company in pretty good shape
◼
►
and it was really Michael Spindler his
◼
►
successor who ran the company into the
◼
►
we never hear of any more I don't know
◼
►
what I cast he's the guy I'd like to
◼
►
hear people get it you know what do you
◼
►
think apples i get really good answer
◼
►
out of him but if I were Scully I boy I
◼
►
would never ever it get near those
◼
►
questions I just you know it that don't
◼
►
don't don't don't know what I mean
◼
►
you're the guy around Steve Jobs out of
◼
►
the company don't I would like to go and
◼
►
maybe you know and it's such a long
◼
►
complicated thing and maybe that really
◼
►
was good for jobs because it really made
◼
►
him re-evaluate things he learned
◼
►
lessons and you know you could even
◼
►
argue that that culturally next was more
◼
►
of like a sibling to Apple then its
◼
►
competitor and that the reunification in
◼
►
1998 was really more like to have that
◼
►
never should have been separated coming
◼
►
together but it never would have
◼
►
happened if jobs hadn't been kicked out
◼
►
and you know they never would have had
◼
►
next step which turned into OS 10 and
◼
►
blah blah blah but it in a nutshell vout
◼
►
to Scully screwed up you know anybody
◼
►
like I feel like he should just say
◼
►
not one nice sentence about apple and
◼
►
and say I you know but I'm not going to
◼
►
comment on our manager yeah it's like
◼
►
it's like talking about an old
◼
►
girlfriend right here it's like what was
◼
►
his name Pete best talking about beetles
◼
►
yeah you know what I mean like ghetto
◼
►
given a critique of you know what was
◼
►
wrong with the white album you know what
◼
►
Pete best is doesn't do that and that
◼
►
talking about management old management
◼
►
of apple i would like to go back and
◼
►
look at I haven't done this recently and
◼
►
I don't know if there's a concise place
◼
►
to look at this but what the product mix
◼
►
looked like when jobs or when Emilio
◼
►
took over because they had all those ink
◼
►
and if you included the clones
◼
►
well I mean most of it was just a mess
◼
►
yeah it really was what yeah because it
◼
►
did clones were in place before Emilio
◼
►
came in right right Amelia wasn't there
◼
►
that long now only there for like was it
◼
►
less than a year maybe a year he gets a
◼
►
dee gets a bad rap too because he'd
◼
►
actually did a pretty good job
◼
►
I mean he didn't he didn't introduce
◼
►
anything new to fix the company but he
◼
►
stopped a lot of he stopped a lot of the
◼
►
bleeding yeah you know it was like a
◼
►
triage surgeon you know I mean like an
◼
►
ER doctor who came in and yeah and at
◼
►
least fixed the stuff that was awful and
◼
►
then it was up two jobs to come in and
◼
►
and you know get some new stuff that was
◼
►
going to you know turn it around yeah
◼
►
but I yeah I would love to see like one
◼
►
of the way I could just see it as one of
◼
►
those things like on a tumblr site like
◼
►
one of those posters but yeah and
◼
►
instead of just like all apple products
◼
►
in history just what was the product
◼
►
lineup like in the summer and 96 right
◼
►
did you will do what did you on back
◼
►
then I had a a powermac 9600 which was
◼
►
and at the time and I somehow i think it
◼
►
was a machine that like de beauté at
◼
►
like four or five grand and it somehow
◼
►
quickly got superseded i forget what
◼
►
happened a lot but I got it brand-new
◼
►
right after like the next thing and come
◼
►
out and I got it for like twenty one
◼
►
hundred dollars so so it is like six
◼
►
months earlier it was like 40 it was
◼
►
retailing for like 4500 and i got it for
◼
►
2100 and use it for years it was one of
◼
►
my one of the best computers i brung ya
◼
►
I I performance 6400 which is widely
◼
►
considered a road Apple but i really
◼
►
liked that I really liked it it had
◼
►
argued that the power was it a Power
◼
►
Move was my thing called a parent
◼
►
alright yeah yeah I could it would have
◼
►
probably probably would again but a
◼
►
pretty sure that it was a was only still
◼
►
making always a 96 hardly swimming
◼
►
cuadras now it wasn't a quadrant because
◼
►
it was wasn't quadra a Quadra wasn't
◼
►
powerpc and the locators powerpc right
◼
►
okay i think there was power million and
◼
►
I remember specifically that was in 9600
◼
►
because i named my hard drive like how
◼
►
9600 my hard drive icon on that machine
◼
►
was how icon so I thought you know it's
◼
►
9600 and how was the how 9000 you know
◼
►
obvious obvious way to name your
◼
►
did you use a kaleidoscope and lots of
◼
►
icon packs and I that's a great question
◼
►
i did on and off for years
◼
►
yeah I a kaleidoscope I didn't really
◼
►
get into but i did use because I feel
◼
►
like when collaborate on kaleidoscope
◼
►
came out i had outgrown that right what
◼
►
I had what I remember using was it
◼
►
called Aaron maybe there was that we had
◼
►
and it was by the guy who eventually
◼
►
went on to make kaleidoscope with
◼
►
somebody else but it was Aaron and he
◼
►
also had one it was just an extension
◼
►
you dropped in your folder and it
◼
►
changed the look and feel of your
◼
►
windows to look like any of this
◼
►
this is crazy part is that Apple had
◼
►
purposefully seated like to Macworld mac
◼
►
user screenshots of the next generation
◼
►
mac OS the copeland and whatever the
◼
►
other Gershwin whatever the hell they're
◼
►
coming out with and they were like
◼
►
here's what it's going to look like like
◼
►
the heck they were like so desperate for
◼
►
publicity and and they're so stagnant on
◼
►
the OS is that the key people excited
◼
►
they revealed like two years in advance
◼
►
what everything was going to look like
◼
►
and so this guy was in Greg land weber
◼
►
made extension called Aaron which gave
◼
►
you that look and feel right now I think
◼
►
I was like ten dollars shareware or
◼
►
something yeah and then he came out with
◼
►
one I forgot what it was called but it
◼
►
did the same thing but made the mac look
◼
►
like the BOS with the yellow tab style
◼
►
windows right around that for a while
◼
►
yeah but like I said I'd like you said i
◼
►
think it's it's it's a niche that you
◼
►
you get for a while and then once you've
◼
►
scratched it you're done yeah all of a
◼
►
sudden you feel silly yeah maybe it's an
◼
►
age or maybe it's an agent of personal
◼
►
yeah cost players i haven't had an
◼
►
awesome time a lot of hydrogen i got
◼
►
like that i don't know i always thought
◼
►
that especially in those days with the
◼
►
system extensions that the the curve for
◼
►
power users was that as you got more and
◼
►
more into your mac as an enthusiast in a
◼
►
geek and someone who's just into it
◼
►
you added more and more extensions and
◼
►
when you you know for those of you who
◼
►
don't remember when you booted your mac
◼
►
in those days each system extension you
◼
►
had would put a little icon up at the
◼
►
bottom of the screen and you get this
◼
►
usually would just go across one row but
◼
►
if you were like really into it you get
◼
►
two rows and if you really loaded your
◼
►
system up with extensions you know you
◼
►
get the third row or even a fourth row
◼
►
and you can measure how much of a nerd
◼
►
you were by how many rows of those icons
◼
►
you got when you started your computer
◼
►
but i always thought that when you got
◼
►
to a certain point that it was like a
◼
►
bell curve and it started going down the
◼
►
other way and the people who really knew
◼
►
the mac and really got into it ran with
◼
►
his few extensions as possible because
◼
►
there was always that that sense of
◼
►
dread that it would stop as it was
◼
►
loading because it was happens sometimes
◼
►
yeah that that you'd be doing it and one
◼
►
of the icons and come out and it was
◼
►
which is the operating system which is
◼
►
lockout while we're booting because
◼
►
you've got the conflict i know i've
◼
►
talked about this probably with dan on
◼
►
old talk show but like one of the like
◼
►
greatest software one of the greatest
◼
►
apps in the history of mac OS was
◼
►
content Hatcher yea which was a program
◼
►
whose entire point was defined and help
◼
►
you find and identify conflicts between
◼
►
system extensions and identify them and
◼
►
then you could have like you know if
◼
►
extension a witch made your cursor turn
◼
►
into a Snoopy dog when instead of a
◼
►
watch on you were waiting for something
◼
►
conflicted with the extension be which
◼
►
gave you like a system-wide applescript
◼
►
menu or something like that you could
◼
►
like set presets and say ok when i'm
◼
►
running this extension I'm not running
◼
►
this one and when i'm running the other
◼
►
one I'm not running this one and you
◼
►
could like switch between them when you
◼
►
started up and that the app I just
◼
►
remember it's like you know it's like if
◼
►
what were they doing that the app was
◼
►
written by Jeff Robin who went on to
◼
►
write sound jam which you may have heard
◼
►
of is now called items and he still at
◼
►
apple always really ok now because he
◼
►
still does the demos he did the demo of
◼
►
itunes a lot of how he still in charge
◼
►
of itunes but conflict catches a huge
◼
►
hit and it's just funny and hindsight
◼
►
that it was necessary because we're
◼
►
running these things do they eventually
◼
►
well they made they made their own right
◼
►
they made some sort of contract but i
◼
►
wasn't i wasn't nearly as powerful I
◼
►
don't like you could do it manually but
◼
►
you couldn't save sets or something like
◼
►
yes happen well the gist of it though is
◼
►
that a you know ultimately long-term
◼
►
they needed to move this something like
◼
►
Mac os10 with a modern architecture
◼
►
where one process isn't going to hang
◼
►
the weather it's an extension or
◼
►
whatever isn't going to hang your whole
◼
►
computer but like the people who used to
◼
►
complain about their max locking up
◼
►
inevitably had like four rows of system
◼
►
extensions and they were all using you
◼
►
know api's that weren't meant to be used
◼
►
by third-party developers whereas if you
◼
►
just stuck to what apple gave uses ran
◼
►
the stock OS it was very very
◼
►
liable and and it was pretty hard dude
◼
►
to do that though there were so many I
◼
►
mean developers just began to ship those
◼
►
things like crazy and and you get a new
◼
►
you get a new box set of software and it
◼
►
would install 15 extensions right
◼
►
everything was an extension man you
◼
►
needed like Adobe tight man just a
◼
►
render PostScript fonts you needed an
◼
►
extension from Adobe ATM adobe type
◼
►
manager and you had the name adobe type
◼
►
managers is we really have two weeks
◼
►
here but remember you had the name adobe
◼
►
type manager with the tilde oh yeah
◼
►
there's have until the ATM because it
◼
►
had a load last because if I don't even
◼
►
know why but you had to make sure it
◼
►
loaded last night loaded in alphabetical
◼
►
order until the sorted to the bottom
◼
►
whereas most punctuation characters
◼
►
sorted to the top before the letters and
◼
►
so is tilde ATM I don't miss that
◼
►
no I don't miss that at all which was
◼
►
sort of the one with thing that windows
◼
►
I mean even as a Mac user we have to say
◼
►
that windows 95 with protected memory
◼
►
and none of that stuff was was actually
◼
►
an improvement we would bitch about the
◼
►
look and feel and how it was all stolen
◼
►
from yeah there was your final actually
◼
►
had only a stable mac that was
◼
►
antithetical to apples the the way
◼
►
things ought to it ran you know that you
◼
►
really did have to be it's almost the
◼
►
it's almost a complete polar opposite of
◼
►
the appstore mindset where the appstore
◼
►
mindset is look we vetted this stuff and
◼
►
it's in a techno groups both two levels
◼
►
of protection a we vetted it personally
◼
►
before we allowed into the storm be
◼
►
there is a sandbox that's technically
◼
►
locks this software into an area where
◼
►
it's not going to mess up your whole
◼
►
system so we can't guarantee that the
◼
►
app is going to be good but we can
◼
►
guarantee you that it's not going to
◼
►
you're not going to screw up your
◼
►
computer in any way by installing
◼
►
anything from the appstore whereas in
◼
►
that those the nineties with the late
◼
►
era of system 7 and system 8 you really
◼
►
had to almost be an expert when you
◼
►
installed anything to like make sure
◼
►
that it wasn't going to hold your system
◼
►
which was exactly the opposite of the
◼
►
system seven and eight days we really
◼
►
had to do like a before-and-after on
◼
►
your extensions folder to make sure
◼
►
that nothing sketchy had been stuck in
◼
►
there and you set a new allocated memory
◼
►
Oh remember that that seems so
◼
►
ridiculous as it's completely ridiculous
◼
►
you the human being decided how much my
◼
►
photoshop ram doubler and anyway we
◼
►
should stop talking about that because
◼
►
someone you know what though it doesn't
◼
►
feel though that it does show that apple
◼
►
Apple was not in great shape in nineteen
◼
►
ray six that's the point right and its
◼
►
name anyways but I do want to talk about
◼
►
the stock the whole stock thing
◼
►
yeah I do but let's do it before you get
◼
►
into the stock thing let's take a break
◼
►
and i will do i'm going to do a sponsor
◼
►
break yet i want to tell you about it
◼
►
i'm going to tell you about a great new
◼
►
app for the ipad is called infinite
◼
►
refrigerator infinite refrigerator that
◼
►
name is going to make total sense to you
◼
►
as soon as I tell you what it does
◼
►
infinite refrigerator provide you with
◼
►
one or more personalized virtual
◼
►
refrigerators and the ideas that you
◼
►
make one for each of your kids and you
◼
►
use it to display digital photos
◼
►
pictures of artwork report cards notes
◼
►
anything that you might put up your
◼
►
real-life refrigerator in your kitchen
◼
►
you can put up instead on your virtual
◼
►
refrigerator in infinite refrigerator
◼
►
why would you do this easy it eliminates
◼
►
the guilt that sort of associate
◼
►
implicit guild when you put stuff up on
◼
►
a refrigerator and then time goes on you
◼
►
get more pictures and you've got to take
◼
►
the old stuff down to put the new stuff
◼
►
up if you do an infinite refrigerator
◼
►
instead you never have to take stuff
◼
►
down you can just keep piling again
◼
►
because it's a computer it can store all
◼
►
and gives you a permanent digital home
◼
►
for these type of mementos right photos
◼
►
that you store on an infinite
◼
►
refrigerator support full screen pan and
◼
►
zoom just like the built-in Photos app
◼
►
you can pick them from your camera roll
◼
►
or you can take a new picture using the
◼
►
put them up it looks like a thumbnail on
◼
►
this little virtual fridge is a little
◼
►
magnet tap the photo zooms to fullscreen
◼
►
pan and zoom everything you want tap
◼
►
again to close your back to the
◼
►
refrigerator view you can supply a title
◼
►
and a note for each photo you can even
◼
►
record audio commentary or have your kid
◼
►
record audio commentary describing the
◼
►
photo or the picture of the image or
◼
►
whatever it is in our own voice unlike
◼
►
the real refrigerator in your kitchen
◼
►
the an infinite refrigerator never
◼
►
forget right and hanging next to each
◼
►
infinite refrigerator is a calendar all
◼
►
right there on screen tap the calendar
◼
►
and you can go back in time and see what
◼
►
the refrigerator look like before this
◼
►
is the type of app where it's kind of
◼
►
fun to use to keep you know to start
◼
►
using but you're really not Yugi and you
◼
►
can just imagine the benefits really are
◼
►
going to come until you've been using it
◼
►
for months or a year or even a couple of
◼
►
years and you have a whole bunch of
◼
►
mementos stored in this thing and then
◼
►
you can use the calendar view to go back
◼
►
and see what it looked like six months
◼
►
or a year ago and just sort of page
◼
►
through time like that bridges the whole
◼
►
fridge the whole collage type layout
◼
►
that you make or any individual photo
◼
►
if through the app via email I message
◼
►
twitter facebook all the standard iOS
◼
►
sharing stuff so how much does it cost
◼
►
here's the deal it's an ipad app built
◼
►
for iOS 6 download the app from the
◼
►
appstore absolutely free free download
◼
►
but here's the hitch you only get one
◼
►
fridge to start with its place for blue
◼
►
now you can make more than one of them
◼
►
but if you want to use the other colors
◼
►
they've got five other styles and colors
◼
►
and fridges it's an in-app purchase 199
◼
►
so it's a free app downloaded there's no
◼
►
limits to it but you're using the blue
◼
►
fridge you want to use other colors too
◼
►
box-to-box to unlock the whole app super
◼
►
what a great deal their website go to
◼
►
infinite refrigerator dot-com that
◼
►
infinite refrigerator calm you'll find
◼
►
that all the information you need you'll
◼
►
get to see how cool it looks really cool
◼
►
last thing I noticed is the in the
◼
►
little virtual kitchen you get there's a
◼
►
little virtual kitchen service around in
◼
►
your fridge they even have a toaster and
◼
►
you can write messages on a piece of
◼
►
toast and keep that in there so I feel
◼
►
like there's something in here and you
◼
►
could tie this together with that Tim
◼
►
Cook line last year about combining a
◼
►
toaster in refrigerator but those things
◼
►
are probably not going to be pleasing to
◼
►
well here's an app that combines a
◼
►
refrigerator and a toaster and it's
◼
►
actually pretty cool so maybe maybe Tim
◼
►
Cook was wrong on that once again my
◼
►
thanks to infinite refrigerator go check
◼
►
them out at infinite refrigerator
◼
►
yes I'd what do you want what do you
◼
►
want to say about this doc I try not to
◼
►
write out the stock but I feel like
◼
►
what's happened recently is so
◼
►
extraordinary that it's so absurd that
◼
►
you can't not talk about it right
◼
►
I I nice try to spend at least a little
◼
►
bit of time trying to understand the
◼
►
situation with the options with the call
◼
►
options on this why because you had
◼
►
posted a link to something from november
◼
►
explaining why they're there is a large
◼
►
block of options out there so that with
◼
►
with prices in the range of like 552 800
◼
►
or something like that so it is it is in
◼
►
the best interest of these money
◼
►
managers who have those options out
◼
►
there to try to keep apples price down
◼
►
I don't know what I don't know enough
◼
►
about the stock market and what like an
◼
►
option like that cost for cost but let
◼
►
you know the gist of it though is it
◼
►
back in the summer when the stock was
◼
►
flying really high like up around seven
◼
►
hundred dollars but in and spent most of
◼
►
the summer and that 600 people who
◼
►
bought these options bought them options
◼
►
come with have an expiration date and it
◼
►
seems like a lot of them expire this
◼
►
aah at price points let's say like you
◼
►
said 550 to 650 or something like that
◼
►
people who thought the stock would still
◼
►
be like that so you'd buy the option
◼
►
or let's say i don't know i don't know
◼
►
why I'm phone is out there ten bucks i
◼
►
don't know maybe it's higher it's got to
◼
►
be hot maybe it's higher but you by the
◼
►
option for ten dollars you don't know
◼
►
the stock you're not buying a stock
◼
►
you're just buying the right to buy the
◼
►
stock at a certain right price at a
◼
►
certain date and you're betting that
◼
►
come january nineteen apple stock will
◼
►
still be up at like seven hundred
◼
►
dollars and your option to buy the stock
◼
►
at five hundred and fifty dollars means
◼
►
you can buy a whole bunch of shares of
◼
►
come January and it's already worth
◼
►
seven hundred dollars because that's
◼
►
what the stock is that and then you make
◼
►
money you made money by betting that the
◼
►
stock would be higher on that date then
◼
►
the option price and on that could
◼
►
converse side the person who sells these
◼
►
options is making sort of the opposite
◼
►
bet and if come the date that the
◼
►
options expire the stock is under that
◼
►
striking price for the option they win
◼
►
because they keep the money that you
◼
►
paid for that ten bucks per share that
◼
►
you paid for the option to buy it and
◼
►
they still own share that they had to
◼
►
buy to cover these options if the person
◼
►
that actually bought them but because
◼
►
it's under the price they don't have to
◼
►
sell it right is that did that sound
◼
►
right that sounds right to me
◼
►
yes right so that there's all these
◼
►
institutional investors who in and the
◼
►
guy you know and I guess these options
◼
►
you can you can look up what the options
◼
►
are mean it wasn't like he was making
◼
►
stuff up like like we do he was actually
◼
►
found on you know all these are you know
◼
►
he was telling all the options that are
◼
►
out there just at five hundred and fifty
◼
►
dollars and it was like I don't six
◼
►
hundred million dollars worth of them
◼
►
and that wasn't counting the ones at
◼
►
higher prices so it's easy to say that
◼
►
there's well over a billion dollars at
◼
►
stake if Apple's stock is like at 500 or
◼
►
lower in the next two days
◼
►
yeah which in turn leads to another
◼
►
people who have those options certainly
◼
►
motivates them to sort of poo-poo
◼
►
badmouth the stock and make you know
◼
►
these arguments like we've been talking
◼
►
about earlier in the show about why
◼
►
apple's and trouble and that they're not
◼
►
stock is down and we should say that the
◼
►
bulk of this this recent decline and
◼
►
well I don't know where it's at now
◼
►
actually but the sort of the doldrums
◼
►
that they're in right now is because a
◼
►
couple of publications came out and said
◼
►
that iphone 5 demand was soft based on
◼
►
the fact that they had heard from some
◼
►
nameless people that Apple had cut
◼
►
orders for iphone 5 screens in half
◼
►
right without really getting into what
◼
►
exactly that means right i mean here's
◼
►
the the wall street journal version of
◼
►
it there are 22 publications that had
◼
►
this I guess sunday night to monday
◼
►
morning like it ran on the front page i
◼
►
think of the journal monday and it was
◼
►
knee-high and I kk e is Japanese paper i
◼
►
don't know if it's like the Japanese
◼
►
equivalent of the wall street journal or
◼
►
what but then that but it's japanese and
◼
►
so what I know about it is all
◼
►
secondhand its people i guess can read
◼
►
Japanese and and translating it and the
◼
►
journal which seemingly had the exact
◼
►
same information here's how the journal
◼
►
story started and the headline was Apple
◼
►
cuts orders for iphone parts Apple
◼
►
incorporated has cut its orders for
◼
►
components for the iphone 5 due to
◼
►
weaker than expected demand people
◼
►
familiar with the situation said monday
◼
►
so there's like no if ands or butts in
◼
►
that sentence right i mean they're not
◼
►
saying who the people familiar with the
◼
►
situation are never going to really
◼
►
clarify but that's if you take that at
◼
►
face value if you read The Wall Street
◼
►
Journal ending that well it's the wall
◼
►
street journal so you know if you read
◼
►
it must be true there's no hemming and
◼
►
hawing or well it you know there's two
◼
►
things in there one that the components
◼
►
no I didn't say that in the first
◼
►
paragraph but it does say in the next
◼
►
paragraph it says apples orders for
◼
►
iphone screens for the january-march
◼
►
quarter for example has dropped to
◼
►
roughly half of what the company had
◼
►
previously planned to order two of the
◼
►
people said so half is a huge number
◼
►
that's huge it doesn't matter what you
◼
►
know what what it was from her too
◼
►
and they don't hammer horror say maybe
◼
►
it's or that it's a sign of weaker than
◼
►
expected demand for the iphone 5 they
◼
►
say that the journal says it's due to
◼
►
weaker than expected demand and you know
◼
►
the stock took a bath on that over the
◼
►
next two days I mean really will trick
◼
►
to get dropped by i forget like a market
◼
►
cap why's it drop by like a hundred and
◼
►
seventy million dollars billion dollars
◼
►
which is like bigger than all but like
◼
►
maybe like the 10 biggest corporations
◼
►
in the world like they dropped in value
◼
►
by more than the size of most big
◼
►
companies and reunite originally they
◼
►
used to be and i wrote a lot about it
◼
►
this week i don't think the whole thing
◼
►
I really do at and at the the nikkei i
◼
►
won from Japan gave actual numbers it
◼
►
said that they said that the original
◼
►
order was for 65 million displays
◼
►
apparently apparently the journal had
◼
►
that in there originally and then right
◼
►
and then remove took it out like sunday
◼
►
night online they had that in there and
◼
►
I don't think it don't think it appeared
◼
►
in print and by the time i read the
◼
►
story monday morning it wasn't in there
◼
►
that they had the same thing but they
◼
►
didn't replace it with another number
◼
►
which to me is a huge problem when you
◼
►
say it's dropped by half but you don't
◼
►
say what what you don't even give a
◼
►
ballpark range for what the original
◼
►
numbers were there's no way to ever
◼
►
verify that right there because then
◼
►
come next quarter apple can and will
◼
►
release and say how many iphones they
◼
►
sold and we can take a pretty good guess
◼
►
that what percentage of them or iPhone 5
◼
►
is based on the average selling price
◼
►
and whatever that number is you could
◼
►
say well the journal was right because
◼
►
Apple expected to sell double that no
◼
►
matter what it is because they didn't
◼
►
yeah it's like when amazon says that
◼
►
they've sold the most handles ever in a
◼
►
quarter but they never tell you how many
◼
►
they sold so who knows you know maybe
◼
►
they went from 10 to 11 right or that
◼
►
the you know I forget amazon always does
◼
►
that they never reveal how many candles
◼
►
they've sold but they'll say things like
◼
►
it you know a hundred and fifty percent
◼
►
higher than the previous record for
◼
►
kindle sold in the quarter
◼
►
yeah but it's you know a hundred and
◼
►
fifty percent of ? and if they could
◼
►
guess if the number add it's just none
◼
►
of it is that makes sense because it's
◼
►
it's unlikely that they would order 65
◼
►
million screens for the current quarter
◼
►
right it really makes no sense and
◼
►
nobody seemed to question this hour
◼
►
well I did but it seems like most people
◼
►
people who should know better never
◼
►
questioned it that it's such an unusual
◼
►
number because there's the most i've
◼
►
ever sold in a quarter is 37 million
◼
►
that's iphones and a quarter and that
◼
►
was last year's holiday quarter and this
◼
►
year there's the consensus among
◼
►
analysts both the wall street ones and
◼
►
the independent analysts like Andy's a
◼
►
ques you know have a much more accurate
◼
►
track record is about 50 million so they
◼
►
would go from 37 million last year 250
◼
►
million this year year-over-year for the
◼
►
holiday quarter and nobody is really
◼
►
picking a number much higher than 50 and
◼
►
the next quarter after the holiday
◼
►
quarter they've always sold for less
◼
►
than the holiday quarter because there's
◼
►
so many people who buy them as holiday
◼
►
gifts and now the last two years the
◼
►
holiday quarter is when the new iphone
◼
►
came out so you get the double whammy of
◼
►
both the people who are like my gosh
◼
►
you're like I want the new iphone as
◼
►
soon as it comes out in order in that
◼
►
quarter and you get the holiday gift
◼
►
bump like so last year they went from 37
◼
►
million in the holiday quarter 35
◼
►
million in this January to March quarter
◼
►
which is like I think roughly five
◼
►
percent drop in all previous years
◼
►
there's some level of dropped from
◼
►
holiday to the next quarter but yet if
◼
►
you take this 65 million number at face
◼
►
value then somehow Apple expected thirty
◼
►
percent growth in the january-march
◼
►
quarter after the holiday quarter even
◼
►
though there's no historical reason for
◼
►
it and they're not introducing a new
◼
►
model or anything like that it just
◼
►
doesn't make any sense
◼
►
like if they actually wanted to order
◼
►
that many displays ah it seems like
◼
►
somebody was drunk right
◼
►
although i did I guess the other
◼
►
argument i've seen which I hadn't
◼
►
thought of the other argument i've seen
◼
►
any horses did you you know and
◼
►
typically the smart bed basket but
◼
►
somebody pointed out that it could just
◼
►
be that they're getting
◼
►
higher-than-expected yields that maybe
◼
►
they you know have expected that only
◼
►
four out of every five displays they
◼
►
ordered would be up to their stuff and
◼
►
that they're finding that you know
◼
►
ninety-five percent of them are passing
◼
►
requirements so that they may be they
◼
►
originally planned to order 65 million
◼
►
not because they expected to buy sell 65
◼
►
million iphones but that they needed 65
◼
►
million to sell 45 million because they
◼
►
expected 20 million of them to be duds
◼
►
or something like that she's so there's
◼
►
other arguments you can make but it's
◼
►
still the 65 million thing just does not
◼
►
it doesn't make any sense now and it
◼
►
doesn't make any sense that they would
◼
►
need to cut it in half due to this is
◼
►
the bigger part I think we're regardless
◼
►
of the actual number the bigger part is
◼
►
whether such a cut-off would be due to
◼
►
weaker than expected demand because
◼
►
there seems to be no sign that there's
◼
►
weaker-than-expected right now they only
◼
►
want us across the border saying that
◼
►
they expect 50 million iphones sold this
◼
►
quarter with the quarter they're going
◼
►
to announce next week verses 37 million
◼
►
last year which is higher not lower and
◼
►
they only caught up with demand about a
◼
►
month ago right they spent most of that
◼
►
the holiday quarter with you know you go
◼
►
to the website with many times when you
◼
►
ordered one they spent most of you know
◼
►
up until I think December they you know
◼
►
they hadn't production hadn't caught up
◼
►
with demand they clearly been making
◼
►
them as fast as they could this
◼
►
ridiculous a minute of course the usual
◼
►
collection of nerdy wells have been
◼
►
saying seaweed we know we told you that
◼
►
iphones nobody out nobody likes iphones
◼
►
anymore right and the thing I got you
◼
►
know an undated with his accusations of
◼
►
you know I think what I sort of got one
◼
►
guy called me Baghdad Bob but you know
◼
►
it's like I don't know it's that guy
◼
►
you know I mean there's no use worrying
◼
►
I mean but this is you know this is why
◼
►
I drink but this is no way at you know
◼
►
they're so convinced that doesn't matter
◼
►
how many holes you logical solid holes
◼
►
you can poke and say boy this just
◼
►
and.and point2 interesting ways of
◼
►
looking at why it doesn't add up
◼
►
it's it's the fact that there's so many
◼
►
people and it gets back to you know what
◼
►
we're talking with beginning of the show
◼
►
who are so convinced that Apple it is
◼
►
set to fall and that the iphone is
◼
►
collapsing that they just took that
◼
►
journal story and and that's it that's
◼
►
the gospel right and so anybody who's
◼
►
arguing otherwise just grasping at
◼
►
straws because they're below an apple
◼
►
yeah because it's a religion fall
◼
►
because it's a religion
◼
►
yeah so next week there's a couple
◼
►
things to look for a little look to see
◼
►
what happens with apple's share price
◼
►
because of these options right and then
◼
►
look to see at the conference call for
◼
►
the conference call how many how many
◼
►
iphones this is old which you should do
◼
►
every quarter but right i do wish that
◼
►
they would break it i guess you know I
◼
►
can I mean we should be lucky because
◼
►
Apple reveals a lot more sales data than
◼
►
a lot of its competitors I mean like I
◼
►
said amazon has never revealed how many
◼
►
candles they've sold of any kind google
◼
►
never reveals how many android phones
◼
►
are so they just have that weird
◼
►
activation number that they never define
◼
►
what the hell yawns yeah
◼
►
in the end you know they certainly don't
◼
►
reveal numbers of their own nexus stuff
◼
►
which they would no more than just
◼
►
activation they should know exact sales
◼
►
numbers nobody really reveals any of
◼
►
that so it gives you wish I mean greedy
◼
►
though I wish that apple would break it
◼
►
down and say we saw this morning iphone
◼
►
5 this many fours and this many 4 s's
◼
►
yeah I guess so apparently i guess it's
◼
►
not it's not required for audit purposes
◼
►
to do that no but that you can kind of
◼
►
backwards engineer at tho by at least
◼
►
getting the ballpark estimate by looking
◼
►
at the average selling price and right
◼
►
through analytics but it's kind of weird
◼
►
that app developers and website mobile
◼
►
websites looking at their statistics can
◼
►
kind of suss out how many although i'm
◼
►
not sure if a website can tell if your
◼
►
iPhone's and iphone 5
◼
►
I think it would just know the version
◼
►
number i guess it's only the app
◼
►
developers that get the analytics that
◼
►
they can kind of tell you know what the
◼
►
cpu is you can tell my story you can
◼
►
tell by screen you can tell by screen
◼
►
size right can you do the and it doesn't
◼
►
oh it does i I don't know in that
◼
►
instance you can I guess I'm but guess
◼
►
what I'm saying is I don't know how do I
◼
►
i know i said i guess that does report i
◼
►
guess since the iphone it does report
◼
►
the screen size you can tell because the
◼
►
only iphone with the 1136 pixels height
◼
►
is the iphone 5 but it's weird that
◼
►
apple reports more than another million
◼
►
apple which is famously close secrets
◼
►
your damn serious and reports more about
◼
►
what they sell them other companies
◼
►
still yeah and we know part of it is
◼
►
that they're not really secretive about
◼
►
everything they're really mostly
◼
►
secretive about what they're going to do
◼
►
right and they're not so secretive about
◼
►
way they don't have done you know and I
◼
►
feel you know I've always said this to
◼
►
that you know and then still continues
◼
►
even now that jobs gone but jobs
◼
►
explanations on stage talking about
◼
►
products really i always thought they
◼
►
were incredibly insightful and and
◼
►
honest about where the where Apple was
◼
►
coming from when they made the thing you
◼
►
know that there was like an honest
◼
►
explanation of here's what we were
◼
►
thinking we could do and here's how we
◼
►
yeah i went back and watch the imac
◼
►
unveiling which I'd never and i think
◼
►
i've actually seen that before I don't
◼
►
think i'm losing what's he wearing like
◼
►
a weird suit yeah he was wearing ass 12
◼
►
who's wearing a jacket
◼
►
it was like a suit with us with a
◼
►
button-up shirt button at the top of
◼
►
that i was weird as I guess it's sort of
◼
►
like if you ever thought like you know
◼
►
in the heyday and that the whole decade
◼
►
long run if you ever like cross your
◼
►
mind like why does he wear the same
◼
►
stuff every day on then you look at some
◼
►
of the stuff he wore before we settled
◼
►
on that and you're like maybe he was
◼
►
right to settle on the black certain
◼
►
get some goofy outfits in this first
◼
►
yeah he swore us like a sweater vest for
◼
►
all for a long time right you have the
◼
►
do you have a link to that youtube is on
◼
►
yes it doesn't your i can find it for
◼
►
you should tell me don't put that in the
◼
►
yeah but it's interesting though it's
◼
►
just funny how am I eat out the mouse is
◼
►
like the best master never make it
◼
►
you know you could get people fired up
◼
►
around that you know this this is why on
◼
►
is a enormous fan of the hockey puck are
◼
►
you kidding me loved it and she African
◼
►
she tweeted about it a couple months ago
◼
►
and a couple of other of our nerd
◼
►
friends a couple of them chimed in and
◼
►
said you know I liked it too
◼
►
it was not universally despised although
◼
►
i think it was majority despised yeah I
◼
►
had I had a little like they use this
◼
►
old like this clip on things these
◼
►
plastic like I think clip-on tie but
◼
►
basically a piece of plastic you clicked
◼
►
on it to make it a more like a normal
◼
►
Mouse yeah I I never had a computer that
◼
►
came with one of the brown my so I never
◼
►
really spent a lot of time with it
◼
►
I mean it's but i guess the argument the
◼
►
main argument about it was that because
◼
►
it was perfectly round there was no way
◼
►
to tell which way it would when you just
◼
►
held it right now looking at was the
◼
►
necessary i was with the orientation was
◼
►
yeah yeah and I did not a fast a lot of
◼
►
other is uncomfortable to it was wide
◼
►
I like because it just fit that felt
◼
►
good but I couldn't couldn't tell which
◼
►
one's going to let me do the second
◼
►
sponsor break and then we can wrap up
◼
►
and finish the show our second sponsor
◼
►
long-term big fans of the talk show if
◼
►
you listen to know that their regular
◼
►
sponsor i'm a big fan of the product it
◼
►
stalks coffee you drink coffee John i do
◼
►
drink coffee drink from QT have you
◼
►
tried the talks i have not yet but it's
◼
►
on my list of things to see
◼
►
but this is see this is why they're
◼
►
coming back to sponsor the show you as i
◼
►
know you get me that there are a lot of
◼
►
people out there just like you who are
◼
►
coffee drinkers talk show listeners and
◼
►
you listen to it and you hear me say
◼
►
these good things about talks and you
◼
►
think you know what I'm going to get
◼
►
around that I'm going to sign up for
◼
►
that but you haven't done yet
◼
►
well I'm telling you that you should get
◼
►
off your asses go to tongs dot org and
◼
►
sign up and try it and you're going to
◼
►
thank me later and you're gonna look
◼
►
here some of the tweets i still get I've
◼
►
here's a tweet from Terra man minn
◼
►
alright trying out talks coffee your
◼
►
sponsorship of groupers talk show worked
◼
►
I'm excited well I guarantee she's gonna
◼
►
be happy that she did it
◼
►
here's another one Matthew rather long
◼
►
time listener the talk show is ready
◼
►
tweeted I thought the coffee from the
◼
►
big-box membership store was ok then i
◼
►
tried talks coffee can't drink that shit
◼
►
anymore i'm too that's how good talks
◼
►
that's the end I'm telling you that's
◼
►
the biggest downside to talks is you
◼
►
sign up for tongues they before you've
◼
►
signed up they've gone around the world
◼
►
source the best beans from all around
◼
►
they've roasted them themselves just
◼
►
write soon as they roast them they seal
◼
►
them up and then they send them out to
◼
►
the membership they send them out
◼
►
fresh roasted coffee sealed tight shows
◼
►
the only downside to this is the best
◼
►
coffee in the world roasted to
◼
►
perfection fresh sent to your door the
◼
►
downside is you get harder and harder to
◼
►
drink stuff that not talks coffee
◼
►
because everything else starts tasting
◼
►
like like crap i can't say enough good
◼
►
things about them i keep getting these
◼
►
tweets and emails from people who are
◼
►
you know why I listened to it I tried it
◼
►
you were right it's great
◼
►
I don't don't think about is something
◼
►
going to eventually do it now you're
◼
►
gonna thank me for it you can go there
◼
►
you'd end the best part is a great deal
◼
►
this is to me is the the genius of their
◼
►
business model is this free trial
◼
►
because nobody wants to sign up for a
◼
►
subscription site unseen no matter how
◼
►
many good things i say about them
◼
►
they're not nobody why I feel like a lot
◼
►
of people you need nobody wants to say
◼
►
I'm gonna spend you know however much
◼
►
money a month and then I've got if I
◼
►
don't like it if I'm not satisfied i
◼
►
you don't have to take my word for it
◼
►
free trial they'll just send you some
◼
►
and you're going to try and then you're
◼
►
going to think when I was not I should
◼
►
have just listened to him and paid for
◼
►
it and signed up so go ahead talk story
◼
►
do x.org go check them out if you drink
◼
►
coffee you're gonna thank me later
◼
►
what else we got left on the agenda
◼
►
here's a question I and again I I this
◼
►
is one of the reasons why i somehow i
◼
►
sometimes feel out of place talking
◼
►
about the stock is I'm not really a
◼
►
stock expert and in my apples stock
◼
►
price is not really the reason that I
◼
►
follow them i don't own apple stock
◼
►
because I don't feel like it would be
◼
►
appropriate with what i do but i do feel
◼
►
though that it's it is like it when it
◼
►
really fluctuates like it has recently
◼
►
it it's a level of absurdity that even
◼
►
somebody like me is not an expert can
◼
►
can see that this just is irrational you
◼
►
know that it's not built on based on
◼
►
what what investors called the
◼
►
fundamentals meaning the numbers right
◼
►
there's there's so many it's like 12
◼
►
dimensional chip is like trying to
◼
►
understand well dimensional chest
◼
►
there's so many other things that go
◼
►
into it so many and so many things based
◼
►
there just straight-out gambling that
◼
►
have nothing to do with the company at
◼
►
all like these options like these option
◼
►
calls that it it seems like they're just
◼
►
better off not worry about it
◼
►
I so there's a there's a measurement of
◼
►
a company's stock price called the the
◼
►
p/e ratio price-to-earnings and again
◼
►
correct me if I'm wrong but the basic
◼
►
idea is you take the company's profits
◼
►
and you multiply it by a certain or you
◼
►
take the company's stock price and you
◼
►
divide it by what their prophets are and
◼
►
that's the p/e ratio in other words the
◼
►
price of the stock versus how much
◼
►
profit they're making I guess quarterly
◼
►
and like the average for the S&P 500 is
◼
►
15 in other words the average stock
◼
►
price of a big company is about 15 times
◼
►
the profit of the company and you know
◼
►
some companies hire some companies are
◼
►
lower but you know 15 and to me seems
◼
►
like a reasonable i did that somehow it
◼
►
makes sense to me that seems about right
◼
►
what 15 is a you know for years
◼
►
quarterly you know so a company is worth
◼
►
about four years times its profits I
◼
►
don't know sounds about right
◼
►
Apple's is it like 10 and if you
◼
►
subtract the hundred billion dollars in
◼
►
cash that they have in the bank which
◼
►
seems fair because if you're just going
◼
►
to say here's what the company's worth
◼
►
which is what the stock price is
◼
►
supposed to represent the cast you
◼
►
should be able to just subtract from
◼
►
that if you subtract that massive amount
◼
►
it's nine so there-there p/e ratio is
◼
►
way less than the average company yet
◼
►
they've been in the midst of this
◼
►
incredible growth over the last couple
◼
►
of years and the number that gets me is
◼
►
is Amazon Amazon p/e ratio and I'm not
◼
►
it's it's like 2,600 this is I stood
◼
►
it's not an exaggeration there you know
◼
►
amazon lives in like this I i will link
◼
►
to a magical acs article while ago that
◼
►
Amazon lives in this world worth
◼
►
investors and do not care about their
◼
►
profits that their you know their
◼
►
stories is not as bears no relation to
◼
►
their profitability whatsoever there the
◼
►
market share poster child right and a
◼
►
little I think it's almost the opposite
◼
►
right there is getting really didn't you
◼
►
in front for you in the reason are they
◼
►
have profits massive profits i just i
◼
►
don't get that it's it seems like it's
◼
►
still the same old dot-com bubble
◼
►
mentality where do they do yeah they're
◼
►
not making any money but eventually
◼
►
eventually they'll make money on amazon
◼
►
has been doing this for 15 years
◼
►
yeah I feel like with amazon amazon too
◼
►
interesting and I don't have to admit I
◼
►
don't get that strategy like to me it's
◼
►
just it's not just because it's apple
◼
►
but I i do something and I think it's
◼
►
part of what just appeals to me about
◼
►
the whole thing is that I understand
◼
►
what Apple's doing is making money every
◼
►
time they sell something and then just
◼
►
putting that money away and not
◼
►
squandering it now i understand that
◼
►
that's not how I behaved in real life
◼
►
I'm a command that squander every dollar
◼
►
but i wish that i had the discipline to
◼
►
build up a huge you know
◼
►
hundred-million-dollar dashboard and
◼
►
then before the show when I was making
◼
►
notes i anchor rope down the hundred i
◼
►
want to talk about this and I wrote down
◼
►
a hundred billion cash and I thought
◼
►
that can't be right know that it it's 10
◼
►
billion right can't be a hundred but it
◼
►
is it's a hundred have a hundred billion
◼
►
dollars in cash that they're just
◼
►
sitting on that when I wrote it down it
◼
►
seemed like a preposterous number right
◼
►
it does seem preposterous seems crazy
◼
►
right but it doesn't seem to have any
◼
►
kind of value in it doesn't it doesn't
◼
►
become valuable in the stock and you
◼
►
know and I you know I guess you know I
◼
►
you could argue maybe reasonably that
◼
►
the run-up that Apple had last year over
◼
►
the summer when the stock price reached
◼
►
its peak maybe that was a little
◼
►
irrational to just as irrational as the
◼
►
dive that it's taken in the last three
◼
►
months but even at its peak their PE
◼
►
ratio was still like never got more than
◼
►
like 12 or 13 it still never reach the
◼
►
average p/e ratio of a company in the
◼
►
SMP 500 that you could make a reasonable
◼
►
case that only looking for a PE value of
◼
►
the average company SMP 500 that Apple
◼
►
stock should you know should be up and
◼
►
around under 850 or something like that
◼
►
i had a screen capture that I had for a
◼
►
little while and finally eventually just
◼
►
deleted because i didn't know where to
◼
►
post it but it was a our local paper at
◼
►
I follow their twitter account and I
◼
►
think they're just they're point wire
◼
►
stories for this stuff because they
◼
►
don't they don't follow this correctly
◼
►
themselves but it was back in october i
◼
►
think when they when apple and both
◼
►
supporting their their quarterly numbers
◼
►
and apple had a good quarter missed the
◼
►
analyst estimates of course again it but
◼
►
a amazon reported a loss if i remember
◼
►
ya think the last quarter and also to
◼
►
like a pretty big loss like 247 million
◼
►
dollar yeah and both of that both of the
◼
►
both of the tweets which came within 10
◼
►
15 minutes of each other something like
◼
►
that said what about each of them apple
◼
►
mrs. mrs. analyst estimates amazon mrs.
◼
►
analyst estimates that is as if the two
◼
►
both had equally bad quarters right when
◼
►
amazon reported a big loss and apple
◼
►
made a whole crapped on a mine
◼
►
yeah and you've written about this
◼
►
pretty pretty well about the this this
◼
►
that the one Apple does miss the
◼
►
analysts projections that it it is so
◼
►
the way that gets played in the stories
◼
►
is so misleading it is and again it's
◼
►
like the everyone to be a reflexive
◼
►
defend apple at all costs and paint no
◼
►
matter what the news is good for Apple
◼
►
but it's this emphasizes miss miss miss
◼
►
miss miss and doesn't mention that it
◼
►
was the Miss involved 8.2 million
◼
►
dollars in profit right and it's sort of
◼
►
i mean i think the idea if you know if
◼
►
you wanted if you want to take their
◼
►
point of view is that it's an industry
◼
►
shorthand for if you have money and
◼
►
apple you might have over you might have
◼
►
just overestimated because you know if
◼
►
you were betting on what the analysts
◼
►
said then they weren't quite right but
◼
►
for the average person it doesn't they
◼
►
don't they don't understand that you
◼
►
just think Apple had a bad quarter right
◼
►
and and it's up you know and it's
◼
►
entirely yet because you don't they
◼
►
don't put that context in their right
◼
►
and it's it's emphasizes only they it
◼
►
emphasizes only the mists and the missus
◼
►
just of numbers an analyst pull out of
◼
►
I mean I not entirely that you know i
◼
►
spaced on something but it's the right
◼
►
they've got spreadsheets that they're
◼
►
looking at but they're just making
◼
►
a guess and and I guess it hopefully in
◼
►
most cases and educated guess but it's
◼
►
still just a gas and you look at things
◼
►
like well year-over-year how are they
◼
►
doing and it's up you know even in the
◼
►
corner with the miss it was op up it's
◼
►
just that I it just wasn't up as high as
◼
►
a lot of these analysts had guests and
◼
►
it's just you know and again i'm not
◼
►
saying that they shouldn't report bad
◼
►
but it just seems like the way that they
◼
►
presented is so heavy-handed and I think
◼
►
part of it even if you don't even have
◼
►
to be at having apple bias a specific
◼
►
anti-apple bias but i think it's this
◼
►
mindset that we've written so many good
◼
►
things about apple and their success
◼
►
that we need to emphasize anything
◼
►
that's bad and the name of objectivity
◼
►
you know I think that you know it gets
◼
►
back to wide everybody jumped on this
◼
►
antennagate story you know spice such
◼
►
fervor that well here's something we can
◼
►
say that Apple did that is imperfect and
◼
►
now we're going to hammer it into the
◼
►
it's very strange to me that they come
◼
►
up with such a vastly different numbers
◼
►
it is and I'll tell you know here's the
◼
►
point I wanted to make was that it seems
◼
►
like apples getting hurt because for a
◼
►
long time Apple would offer their own
◼
►
guidance then they still do I think
◼
►
they're legally obligated to that the
◼
►
end after they report the last quarter
◼
►
they offer guidance for the coming
◼
►
quarter and apple notoriously offered
◼
►
sandbag guidance you know in other words
◼
►
you know they was not what Apple
◼
►
honestly expected to report it was it
◼
►
was a number that it was an unbeliever
◼
►
shirts famous country hell where ya at
◼
►
it was a number of analysts predict
◼
►
their their numbers and maybe a little
◼
►
you know somewhat higher than apples
◼
►
project own projections but all of them
◼
►
were short of reality and I think that
◼
►
what's happened over the last year that
◼
►
you know they've finally caught on that
◼
►
Apple's right projections are so low
◼
►
that they've adjusted their own to be
◼
►
even higher to compensate and that
◼
►
they've really more gotten good right
◼
►
right it's take that even the miss that
◼
►
they reported last quarter wasn't that
◼
►
off it was actually so that gets really
◼
►
not so much that Apple missed or four
◼
►
came way below it was that these
◼
►
analysts projections are projections you
◼
►
want to be spot-on for once instead of
◼
►
coming in way under and having apple
◼
►
blow them away right which is another
◼
►
yeah it's just another element of the
◼
►
the whole thing that makes this all so
◼
►
incomprehensible and I throw my hands up
◼
►
that trying to figure this stuff out and
◼
►
it doesn't seem like you know you always
◼
►
think well maybe maybe the people who
◼
►
are really into this stuff they know all
◼
►
this and put it really i don't i don't
◼
►
get that sense now and at the analytics
◼
►
you know honest and I bet most of the
◼
►
people to listen to the show you know
◼
►
about a lot of doing some apple stock
◼
►
and hopefully the way that they do it
◼
►
it's just buy it when somebody you know
◼
►
like last week like when somebody print
◼
►
something stupid and then the stock
◼
►
drops down by a dent and then just put
◼
►
it away and don't look at it and and you
◼
►
know assume that it's gone up that and
◼
►
we'll keep going up in the long run over
◼
►
time but that if you i-i've if i owned
◼
►
apple stock and like looked at the
◼
►
numbers and week-to-week and jackass by
◼
►
jackass I i would have indigestion so
◼
►
much of it and the thing is it it's
◼
►
there's that famous phrase that's always
◼
►
in if you get like a statement from your
◼
►
mutual fund company it's like past
◼
►
performance is no indication of future
◼
►
future performance or something like
◼
►
that right and it gets back to that
◼
►
point about whether or not Apple needs a
◼
►
hit and whether or not they sold a lot
◼
►
of iphones this past quarter and that's
◼
►
that's done it's right it's the stuff
◼
►
that they're going to do in the future
◼
►
that's going to get you
◼
►
growth potential out of stock it will
◼
►
provide provided the market doesn't do
◼
►
something you know dumbass like it's
◼
►
been doing the last last week so you can
◼
►
I you kind of have to decide based on
◼
►
the history of the company
◼
►
I mean I guess you basically based this
◼
►
judgment on the history of the company
◼
►
and the management of the company
◼
►
whether or not you think that they're
◼
►
going to be able to do something in the
◼
►
future that's going to be a big hit
◼
►
going to get a lot of growth out of and
◼
►
I don't understand in VA you could say
◼
►
that Steve Jobs is the only one that
◼
►
could innovate apple and so therefore i
◼
►
don't think the company's gonna do you
◼
►
know they're just gonna make iPhones and
◼
►
iPads and then max for the rest of
◼
►
forever and never will never have
◼
►
another breakout product but I don't
◼
►
that seems incredibly short-sighted to
◼
►
me and I don't want to stop but just I
◼
►
like the thing and it's I you know that
◼
►
I I just feel like all of them all of
◼
►
their executives but you know Tim Cook
◼
►
in particular since he's the one you
◼
►
know he's the one who sits on the throne
◼
►
now I have my hat is off to him for just
◼
►
not blowing his stack going nuts because
◼
►
there's no way he can win and he surely
◼
►
knows it right so he's getting
◼
►
excoriated now because Apple hasn't
◼
►
released a major new innovation
◼
►
disruption since he took over as CEO
◼
►
ah and if and when eventually they do I
◼
►
did guaranteed 9 x 9 99 times out of a
◼
►
hundred ninety-nine chance out of a
◼
►
hundred it's going to be dismissed as
◼
►
this guy's no Steve Jobs and even if
◼
►
jobs had died two years earlier and the
◼
►
ipad exactly as it is exactly as it
◼
►
wasn't 2010 was introduced under tim
◼
►
cook that whole it's just a big iphone
◼
►
man you know that's it it's just it's 99
◼
►
it would have been ratcheted up to 11 as
◼
►
it's nothing but a big iphone total turd
◼
►
this guy is no Steve Jobs all he did is
◼
►
take the iphone and make it 10 inches
◼
►
guy's an idiot apples-to-apples do and
◼
►
they still would have sold just as many
◼
►
right because real people that soon out
◼
►
to they go and yeah store for the most
◼
►
part this is cool this is cool little
◼
►
but i think it would have been you know
◼
►
and and you know I i expect that
◼
►
whatever in apple's next big thing is
◼
►
it's you know like almost all of their
◼
►
things that have been innovations are
◼
►
don't look like innovations to the to
◼
►
the people watching right away you know
◼
►
to most people that they're you know
◼
►
this is not how it works
◼
►
and that's you know under jobs there was
◼
►
enough faith that they would just say
◼
►
you know kind of a kind of a turkey but
◼
►
now that he's gone and everybody is
◼
►
looking for this doom situation this
◼
►
Apple can't function without Steve Jobs
◼
►
the exact same thing is just going to be
◼
►
yeah so it'll be interesting to see when
◼
►
they do release something and I i
◼
►
personally don't have any doubt that
◼
►
eventually within the next few years the
◼
►
valenar some some new market i would
◼
►
think they have to yeah i think it's
◼
►
inevitable but i just don't know that
◼
►
you you know it it'll happen when I
◼
►
don't you know you can't make it happen
◼
►
right you know it's it's there is no way
◼
►
to make the iphone sooner yeah you can
◼
►
argue that this is wow it took six years
◼
►
between the original ipod until they did
◼
►
the iphone why couldn't they do that
◼
►
sooner but I did there was no way I mean
◼
►
the iphone was so ahead of its time
◼
►
technologically there was I just don't
◼
►
think there was any way to make it
◼
►
before and then you get hips are
◼
►
touchscreen of the technology existed
◼
►
you could argue that the fact that I
◼
►
mean this is the i know people are gonna
◼
►
roll her eyes with this but the fact
◼
►
that they haven't introduced something
◼
►
is that just proof that the company is
◼
►
actually still the same because
◼
►
companies that are bad throw crap out
◼
►
the door every day right and responds
◼
►
immediately to whatever is going on in
◼
►
the market and try to match what's
◼
►
happening whereas Apple sits on their
◼
►
stuff and make sure they get it right
◼
►
before they send it out the door which
◼
►
is why these things only come out every
◼
►
36 years were right and in the meantime
◼
►
they're going to keep doing what they've
◼
►
always done which is iterate on the
◼
►
stuff that's already out there and
◼
►
popular as aggressively as they can and
◼
►
it iteration to iteration never really
◼
►
making any single great leap forward but
◼
►
yet you know and and with a little bit
◼
►
even just a little bit of hindsight
◼
►
making remarkable progress right i mean
◼
►
three years ago they were still selling
◼
►
the iphone 3gs I mean you compare the
◼
►
iphone 5 2 3gs and it's you know it's
◼
►
you know that's the other thing that
◼
►
kills me about these the the pessimists
◼
►
on Apple that say that like
◼
►
I keep saying over and over again that
◼
►
innovation and smartphones over like
◼
►
smartphones are done so they've got to
◼
►
move on to the next big thing because
◼
►
smartphones have been completely
◼
►
commoditized and I got you nuts
◼
►
it's it's like I can't believe anybody
◼
►
would think that when there's so much
◼
►
more room for faster computing and
◼
►
faster graphics and thinner phones and
◼
►
more durable materials and I mean just
◼
►
look at the camera alone is making such
◼
►
unbelievable progress year-over-year I
◼
►
mean that's like the one thing where i
◼
►
can almost tell like when I look back at
◼
►
like family photos and stuff like that
◼
►
like I look back at the ones i snapped
◼
►
on my iphone two years ago and it they
◼
►
like just from a technical perspective
◼
►
just camera technology alone is is it's
◼
►
there's so much room for potential for
◼
►
for you know new hardware and and stuff
◼
►
yeah makes me not haaa i'm going to see
◼
►
at macworld oh yeah i'm going back room
◼
►
yeah I like that word thats that's worth
◼
►
being on the show people everybody out
◼
►
there everybody should go to macroplex
◼
►
yeah what is that two weeks two weeks
◼
►
ago been so we'll be there two weeks two
◼
►
weeks from today I think I'm going on a
◼
►
panel two weeks from today you want any
◼
►
patterns or anything you speak I not
◼
►
not yet anyway usually i often get drawn
◼
►
into something late because I always
◼
►
book late are you looked you're going i
◼
►
am booked i am now booked as of a couple
◼
►
days ago but yeah looking forward series
◼
►
have is no rare on the talk show where I
◼
►
get to see i'll see you soon is too soon