The Talk Show

◼   ► this is the talk show with John Gruber

◼   ► on John Gruber your host my special

◼   ► guest this week is John Smoltz you

◼   ► should do that again

◼   ► do yourself an impression that's not

◼   ► really a zelda I can't do is element

◼   ► impression really i'm sort of just doing

◼   ► a very like what he did is he just

◼   ► instantly and naturally did like a very

◼   ► professional introduction right off the

◼   ► top of his head

◼   ► you know I can't do it and I don't do

◼   ► impressions and and development has such

◼   ► a great voice my god I told me the end

◼   ► of the show it's like like voices on

◼   ► podcasts are like fonts for reading and

◼   ► like his his voice font is just so great

◼   ► it's got like this just incredibly rich

◼   ► voice that i do not know ya sa unlike

◼   ► both of us

◼   ► you got the big got the big backpage

◼   ► column and in Macworld i did this we get

◼   ► something for it did I think its new

◼   ► right yeah that's the februari times the

◼   ► fairies pile up from issue which i

◼   ► believe is the latest i always get them

◼   ► i always get them later

◼   ► I'm always like the last person to get

◼   ► them for some reason and I and people I

◼   ► get confused because I feel like here's

◼   ► I've got two of them here in front of me

◼   ► and the covers are very similar their

◼   ► white covers with red macworld and fonts

◼   ► and they both have pictures of white

◼   ► ipods on the front one of them is

◼   ► februari 2013 with one's November 2012

◼   ► november two thousand six but anyway

◼   ► it's the februari 1i like your little

◼   ► blurb on the very nice website every

◼   ► told people to go to the newsstand to

◼   ► read that many wrote airport where do

◼   ► people buy magazines i don't know where

◼   ► do you used to be you can buy them

◼   ► everywhere it's funny cause it made me

◼   ► laugh though because I did realize that

◼   ► that was thinking about i was like

◼   ► thinking your time telling people to go

◼   ► out and buy the magazine where the heck

◼   ► are they gonna going to drive to the

◼   ► airport if I if I didn't have a

◼   ► subscription in that world i'm not sure

◼   ► where I would go

◼   ► yeah addicts barnes and noble I can't

◼   ► think what magazine yeah i mean those

◼   ► places do but bars closed

◼   ► we're borders and close so in into coma

◼   ► I don't think I mean other than used was

◼   ► a great used bookstores but other than

◼   ► used bookstores we can't buy a book now

◼   ► there's no use magazine stores

◼   ► yeah Peter like that i think about it

◼   ► yesterday the moments are that is Yeah

◼   ► Yeah right student like you don't want

◼   ► to ask for you don't want to go there

◼   ► don't go into those places but the DJ

◼   ► it's funny though because your column on

◼   ► this was this the februari 2013 issue

◼   ► America and it's not online yet is that

◼   ► right yeah I always get so confused when

◼   ► I don't even do they even but what right

◼   ► what goes on light when I don't know

◼   ► what the deal is frankly what I don't

◼   ► think your thing is it online though is

◼   ► not now i know i'm almost positive that

◼   ► it is not i look forward to and and but

◼   ► it's I think they eventually do that

◼   ► though it's perfectly time though

◼   ► because i feel like its it that the the

◼   ► headline says it all why Apple drives

◼   ► people crazy and which is which is what

◼   ► ya a from the last time you were on the

◼   ► show because we were I asked you about

◼   ► it and I feel like it's really come up

◼   ► again this week all over the place like

◼   ► I feel like everybody don't know it's

◼   ► like this this pre earning say because

◼   ► what it's a week from today when apples

◼   ► earnings coming yes

◼   ► one week from today or winter or is it

◼   ► wednesdays usually Wednesday or Tuesday

◼   ► or Wednesday right well it'll be next

◼   ► what's next what's your middle of next

◼   ► week 17 things sometime next week either

◼   ► wednesday or thursday i think that Apple

◼   ► do it and I think that's part of it i

◼   ► think it's partly because we're one week

◼   ► out from their earnings and everybody's

◼   ► piling on but there is there's like this

◼   ► the the collective craziness that Apple

◼   ► drives people to sanity and stupidity

◼   ► and and just you know to turning off of

◼   ► frontal lobe is it i get a peek forever

◼   ► I feel this week I maybe i'm just

◼   ► sensitive to it maybe it's a wonderful

◼   ► start looking for that I completely

◼   ► right

◼   ► I think just just craziness that our

◼   ► craziness but I don't want to ask you to

◼   ► do a a reading of your column but what

◼   ► is that can you restate it though can

◼   ► you give the gist of it of your argument

◼   ► of what drives what about Apple drives

◼   ► people crazy

◼   ► well and I feel like they're there's a

◼   ► lot of reasons that going to and there's

◼   ► a lot of things that factors that go

◼   ► into this and I was only able to because

◼   ► of because of the size constraints of

◼   ► the back page only able to go into some

◼   ► of them but a lot of it was one of the

◼   ► factors i talked about was this sort of

◼   ► checklist mentality that people to

◼   ► understand apples product development

◼   ► process and they sort of apply the same

◼   ► view that they would to any other

◼   ► product any other product category coke

◼   ► pepsi when I mean soda cars anything and

◼   ► they the easiest way to evaluate stuff

◼   ► is just to have a checklist which is

◼   ► kind of what places like consumer

◼   ► reports use and a lot of the technology

◼   ► sites use to do evaluation of products

◼   ► because it's just easier that way and so

◼   ► they have this checklist mentality and

◼   ► they go down the checklist and apple

◼   ► products often don't mean they're not

◼   ► they're not built that way they're built

◼   ► for fit and finish and design and and

◼   ► many other factors that don't easily

◼   ► lend themselves to be evaluated by a

◼   ► checklist process and so these guys go

◼   ► through and they mostly guys and they

◼   ► say you know the samsung device better

◼   ► because it's got a bigger screen or it's

◼   ► got its got a projector and it and which

◼   ► is which is it that is true it is there

◼   ► is a phone out with a little and

◼   ► projector which i think is just utter

◼   ► madness but there is there is something

◼   ► that you can check off on a list and

◼   ► apple will never have a phone with a

◼   ► projector in it so they give more checks

◼   ► to the samsung device and apples device

◼   ► gets fewer and so they say the samsung

◼   ► device 1 and then what happens is mac

◼   ► users of Apple fans get into the

◼   ► comments and start screaming loudly that

◼   ► they don't understand what they're a

◼   ► bunch of idiots and and this starts this

◼   ► sort of feedback loop for insanity where

◼   ► these people think that we're all

◼   ► completely unreasonable because you know

◼   ► they're fully scientific process as

◼   ► determined that the samsung devices

◼   ► better and with it so therefore they try

◼   ► and come up with an explanation for why

◼   ► are we so so bent out of shape about

◼   ► this and they're only explanation that

◼   ► they can come up with is that it's a

◼   ► religion that's there been one of its

◼   ► and never gets old happened to never do

◼   ► I really never detect effort is well and

◼   ► I'm part of it too is in its it's that

◼   ► the the

◼   ► f-word faithful yeah yeah yeahs the

◼   ► Apple faithful or sometimes I still see

◼   ► I just saw yesterday and it's one of

◼   ► those things where I never know where

◼   ► there is linked to it and throw traffic

◼   ► at this crap just to make a joke or just

◼   ► let it slide but I let it slide but it

◼   ► was an argument and and the the gist of

◼   ► it was that the people who buy output

◼   ► all apple products are you know the the

◼   ► religious fervor to fuck but they called

◼   ► him the mac faithful it's the mac

◼   ► faithful who are buying the iphones and

◼   ► ipads and macs when when you know you

◼   ► just took 35 number 35 million and a

◼   ► quarter i mean yeah right

◼   ► 15 minute they're expecting to sell 50

◼   ► million iphones in the last three months

◼   ► alone when they report their numbers

◼   ► next week and maintenance the matter

◼   ► where there is a little bit higher a

◼   ► little bit lower it's not going to be

◼   ► too far away from 50 million they don't

◼   ► sell 50 million max you know it sounds

◼   ► crazy like the whole idea that there's

◼   ► an apple faithful and that's who they

◼   ► sell to is wrongheaded nuts too but i

◼   ► think that that they still toss around

◼   ► the term Mac faithful to describe them

◼   ► shows just how burned into their lizard

◼   ► brains this this this view of Apple is

◼   ► ya know i think i was with you the last

◼   ► time ri-ight I put it in context of like

◼   ► first impressions and that people's

◼   ► brains like were evolutionarily wired to

◼   ► make first impression or not even first

◼   ► impressions but you know initial

◼   ► impressions of people and people don't

◼   ► really change that much overtime and so

◼   ► we're just not wired to change our mind

◼   ► about something or thing you know and

◼   ► evolutionary there's no reason to to

◼   ► really have a conception of a

◼   ► corporation because there weren't any

◼   ► but I i think our brains are just you

◼   ► know we treat them the same way we have

◼   ► emotional the way they have an emotional

◼   ► response to a person you have an

◼   ► emotional response to companies and that

◼   ► I think it's a lost a lot of people who

◼   ► formed their view of apple in the

◼   ► nineties one of ya know the company was

◼   ► in trouble and it looked like you could

◼   ► really make the argument that their

◼   ► basic strategy of of controlling the

◼   ► whole experience doing the software

◼   ► doing the hard

◼   ► we're doing things their own way that

◼   ► you could you know reasonably make a

◼   ► data back argument then that it was

◼   ► that's the wrong way to go and that

◼   ► doesn't work and that the other way the

◼   ► the pc way the open way of using you

◼   ► know Microsoft operating system and

◼   ► having a whole ecosystem of crazy you

◼   ► know configurations of hardware that's

◼   ► the way to go

◼   ► when you can back that up there and I

◼   ► feel people burn that into their mind

◼   ► that Apple is stubborn and wrong and a

◼   ► niche and designs for thuy design

◼   ► aficionados and it's not successful and

◼   ► that's the way it is and everything

◼   ► that's happened since that seems to poke

◼   ► a hole in that they just see that as a

◼   ► fluke you know if it that you know

◼   ► things will right itself things will

◼   ► right themselves yeah thnkx will right

◼   ► themselves eventually have a cute little

◼   ► phrase for people to this kind of

◼   ► thought process which is people cutting

◼   ► themselves on Occam's razor because they

◼   ► it's a simple explanation and usually

◼   ► you know they say that simple

◼   ► explanation is usually the right one

◼   ► when it's not really i mean it's not

◼   ► true in all cases and that's not true in

◼   ► this case and there's the the idea that

◼   ► the mobile landscape is exactly the same

◼   ► as the pc landscape was and then in the

◼   ► nineties is not it's really not the case

◼   ► at all

◼   ► there are certain similarities but it

◼   ► yes definitely to say that it's playing

◼   ► it's going to play out exactly the same

◼   ► as just wrong it well and here's the

◼   ► other thing I keep coming back to and I

◼   ► feel like I should

◼   ► this is that this is an idea that I

◼   ► could expand into it pretty good article

◼   ► maybe hang out i want to i want to take

◼   ► that take that down i want to get this

◼   ► down so i can just dealing primarily

◼   ► with people worrying about today is iOS

◼   ► its phones and the tablet and then when

◼   ► they say that Apple is going to run into

◼   ► the same problem that they did before

◼   ► its basic argument that android is the

◼   ► new windows and iOS is the new mac and

◼   ► what happened to apple with a mac

◼   ► against windows in the nineties is

◼   ► repeating itself now but its Android and

◼   ► Google instead of microsoft windows and

◼   ► there's a couple of problems with that

◼   ► 1i Apple back in the nineties with the

◼   ► mac never ever ever had this sort of

◼   ► success that they haven't

◼   ► out with iOS in terms of the millions of

◼   ► users and brand awareness they didn't

◼   ► have the retail presence because i

◼   ► didn't even have retail stores even so

◼   ► many things that are different right

◼   ► they were not the world's most

◼   ► profitable company at some point you

◼   ► know when the mac was at its peak and

◼   ► windows 95 hadn't come out yet they

◼   ► weren't the most claiming they were

◼   ► doing better than they were in those

◼   ► dark years of 96 97 98 but they were

◼   ► never the world's most profitable

◼   ► company they were never the biggest pc

◼   ► seller they never had hit you know

◼   ► marketshare like they have with the ipad

◼   ► tablets none of these things retro but i

◼   ► would just say I would push all that

◼   ► aside and and just go back and just

◼   ► revisit the idea that something actually

◼   ► went wrong for apple in the pc industry

◼   ► they did have a couple of bad years but

◼   ► they were had really bad management at

◼   ► that right i just look at I mean look at

◼   ► where the mac is today as 25 or 26

◼   ► consecutive quarters of outgrowing the

◼   ► pc industry as a whole

◼   ► right like and it's very profitable I

◼   ► like did Apple actually lose the pc Wars

◼   ► yeah I mean I don't even see the

◼   ► argument of that right you know that

◼   ► they're yes there were a couple of years

◼   ► where things were bad but in hindsight

◼   ► and given the stability that that's

◼   ► happened in the last 15 years with the

◼   ► mac guy

◼   ► how can you argue that they even lost

◼   ► that if you add the ipad and now as

◼   ► right consider that a computer is

◼   ► there's you can't really say that I i

◼   ► think and i think it let's just call the

◼   ► pc industry let's let's separate the

◼   ► ipad from right let's say that that's

◼   ► post-pc and let's say the pc industry is

◼   ► what we thought let's draw the line at

◼   ► 2007 and say before the iphone what we

◼   ► thought of is the pc in this just tops

◼   ► and lastly my laptop's running windows

◼   ► or mac or linux and you know keyboards

◼   ► and mice and pointers that that type of

◼   ► thing i would guess that if you

◼   ► separated out apples profits i'm in fact

◼   ► I don't even think i have to guess i'm

◼   ► almost certain that Microsoft is still

◼   ► the most profitable pc company that the

◼   ► microsoft makes more profits from what

◼   ► that definition i just made of pcs than

◼   ► apple and maybe Intel makes makes the

◼   ► sex

◼   ► the most i don't know but Apple

◼   ► certainly makes a lot and i'm pretty

◼   ► sure that they make more profit than any

◼   ► other company that makes pc hardware

◼   ► that they make more profit on it than HP

◼   ► or any of those companies it's certainly

◼   ► a very good interesting that nobody yet

◼   ► I feel like there's still this

◼   ► assumption that Apple Apple screwed the

◼   ► pooch with pcs in the ninth year it's

◼   ► interesting that nobody's done that that

◼   ► you don't see somebody I mean everybody

◼   ► focuses focuses so much on mobile right

◼   ► now that nobody really is are you having

◼   ► that argument anymore

◼   ► no and I feel like it the time to make

◼   ► it is fading too because the pc industry

◼   ► is shrinking and now that it's shrinking

◼   ► I mean like I I kind of Miss spoke just

◼   ► before going on the air here i posted

◼   ► the thing about about apple and what why

◼   ► is Apple expected that was a argument

◼   ► from some woman that Apple needs to

◼   ► introduce something new and I just did a

◼   ► brief piece and I just said well why

◼   ► does Apple need to do something when

◼   ► they the things that they've already got

◼   ► all profitable the mac ipad and iphone

◼   ► all profitable and growing and somebody

◼   ► pointed out that the Mac isn't actually

◼   ► growing anymore I feel like quarter

◼   ► quarter sales might even be down a

◼   ► little bit

◼   ► I what I was thinking was that they're

◼   ► still growing

◼   ► it's still outpacing the npc industry as

◼   ► a whole it's just that the pc industry

◼   ► as a whole is starting to shrink so fast

◼   ► that even with the mac doing well

◼   ► relative to all other pcs it's still

◼   ► actually shrinking quarter-to-quarter

◼   ► but that's all it's actually you know

◼   ► it's one of those like nice problem to

◼   ► have because it's all about the ipad so

◼   ► because so many fewer laptops are being

◼   ► sold because people are buying ipads

◼   ► right at I I want and I wanted to talk

◼   ► to you about that I wanted to discuss

◼   ► that as well as that which you had it

◼   ► yeah i was just looking up the mac unit

◼   ► sales numbers and there up there up

◼   ► year-over-year but just barely

◼   ► yeah it's close it's you know it's yes

◼   ► it would be tough to say growing anymore

◼   ► yet they're still strong and compared to

◼   ► their historical knowledge they are they

◼   ► are they are literally growing its its

◼   ► but they'll have to have a pretty good

◼   ► quarter to be I think they would do it i

◼   ► think they do they are still growing but

◼   ► it's not by

◼   ► it's not a lot that's not right now and

◼   ► they maybe maybe these numbers for this

◼   ► last quarter will be pretty good because

◼   ► they introduced a couple of new yeah you

◼   ► know they had new imacs and they shipped

◼   ► ladies I don't know I wonder how my

◼   ► brother sure if the third i don't i

◼   ► guess the 13-inch macbook pros their

◼   ► best-selling laptop I don't know that my

◼   ► lady might wanna think the answer retina

◼   ► or at least you can get ready at the

◼   ► animal mind if they might have a really

◼   ► good number

◼   ► yeah for for max you know anybody who

◼   ► was holding out on a new imac god forbid

◼   ► anybody wait until next week to find out

◼   ► we should also know you're not a nobody

◼   ► that it actually won't show up in the

◼   ► quarterly results so because like the

◼   ► imac didn't just another thing of

◼   ► december so maybe they didn't yeah maybe

◼   ► they're it wasn't because it wasn't

◼   ► available the whole quarter maybe it

◼   ► will be this next quarter where we'll

◼   ► see you know that spike from the new the

◼   ► new introduction yeah with the holiday

◼   ► quarter usually does better than yeah

◼   ► regardless you know computers at didn't

◼   ► maybe it's not it's it's kind of a

◼   ► big-ticket christmas gift but it still

◼   ► is the sort of thing that people will

◼   ► buy and call it a Christmas game

◼   ► I'm but the thing that I think about

◼   ► that I would i think is that it's fine

◼   ► for them to go along for a while and

◼   ► just and just try and ride the growth of

◼   ► these existing products but eventually

◼   ► the Apple that we know is more about

◼   ► going into new markets and reinventing a

◼   ► new market and staking out the high-end

◼   ► and selling you know scooping up all the

◼   ► profit and leaving the low end for

◼   ► everybody else right and I'm certainly

◼   ► not arguing that they never need to

◼   ► introduce something a major new

◼   ► disruption right I I just think though

◼   ► that it's that it's goofy to say they

◼   ► needed a media and that's the thing they

◼   ► need that's the other right there's a

◼   ► big difference between they need a major

◼   ► new disruption eventually vs they need a

◼   ► major new disruption now right now right

◼   ► and that's something else I think I

◼   ► touched on that and that column is that

◼   ► the there's this myth that Apple under

◼   ► steve jobs turned out and I think we've

◼   ► talked about this before but turned out

◼   ► a groundbreaking product pretty much

◼   ► every quarter which is right in not

◼   ► always gotta work yeah every single time

◼   ► the guy came onstage sheet obliterated

◼   ► and indeed

◼   ► and Tim Cook still has a right and it's

◼   ► been a whole year and Tim Cook stores

◼   ► hasn't done it but if you know they they

◼   ► did you could say the imac was

◼   ► groundbreaking I guess even though the

◼   ► operating system was exactly the same as

◼   ► the previous operating system and so

◼   ► they did the imac they did the ipod

◼   ► three years later and then they did the

◼   ► iphone 6 years after the ipod write

◼   ► something like that right which is way

◼   ► longer than the scope of period we're

◼   ► looking at right now from the a brief

◼   ► everybody points to the original iPad in

◼   ► 2012 10

◼   ► yeah so that's what get we're coming

◼   ► close to about three years we still have

◼   ► it should hit the bare minimum for

◼   ► coming up with something new

◼   ► alright so and as somebody one of the

◼   ► things i linked to recently said I think

◼   ► it was this piece from harvard business

◼   ► review by dim pelota who made the exact

◼   ► same point you just did that they went

◼   ► six years without a disruption under

◼   ► steve jobs between the ipod and an

◼   ► iphone is that when the ipad came out

◼   ► with everybody now hails as the thing

◼   ► that they need to do something like that

◼   ► again a lot of these same people said

◼   ► that just a big ipod 2g iphone that they

◼   ► didn't even count it when it appears now

◼   ► that's usually the hallmark I mean the

◼   ► iphone is the the exception I've often

◼   ► said this that it's like the holy grail

◼   ► of Apple introductions because it was

◼   ► the one that blew everybody away it blew

◼   ► me away

◼   ► you know I'd i'm assuming a blue you I

◼   ► blew the people who get apple away and

◼   ► it blew the people who don't get apple

◼   ► away everybody even the people don't

◼   ► understand the company were like wow

◼   ► that's a thing

◼   ► yeah that's amazing what why don't you

◼   ► do that everything that was that was my

◼   ► first mac world was that one but and so

◼   ► I remember I kept saying I might've been

◼   ► sitting next to yeah right over today to

◼   ► glen freshman at the time and I think

◼   ► this is that are they all like that's it

◼   ► this is amazing

◼   ► I that was the one where everybody

◼   ► recognized it but all the other ones

◼   ► usually are met like it's a good sign

◼   ► that Apple's on something if it's

◼   ► greeted with a collective man yeah

◼   ► you're right it's getting I've kind of

◼   ► pity the guy because I feel like it's

◼   ► gonna go on his tombstone that you know

◼   ► commander tacos famous slashdot reaction

◼   ► that original ipod that wasn't apple

◼   ► releases ipod this is from slashdot

◼   ► october2013 2001 and here's here's what

◼   ► commander talking road no wireless less

◼   ► space than a nomad no man named better

◼   ► than I remember

◼   ► let him also he didn't capitalize no

◼   ► matter I feel like there's like a sort

◼   ► of disdain to that you have a giant

◼   ► apple stuff is good

◼   ► did you have an mp3 player before the

◼   ► ipod yes I did not Amy Amy had a 30

◼   ► something or another that's what I had

◼   ► to and it was a flash-based job yeah and

◼   ► it held ten songs 11 if you pick the

◼   ► right song right so it was cool in the

◼   ► sense like that if you are used to the

◼   ► song restrictions of a CD or a tape you

◼   ► know where you could have about one

◼   ► album worth you could do it and it was

◼   ► this device that was way lighter you

◼   ► know then a the spinning disc player and

◼   ► smaller and didn't you never had to

◼   ► worry about jostling it and having it

◼   ► skip or something like that but in

◼   ► hindsight it was a collective

◼   ► pain-in-the-ass where if you're sick of

◼   ► the tents on Iran he had like connected

◼   ► to your man it was but indicated i think

◼   ► it you sound jam yeah yeah yeah but what

◼   ► she used to manage right that's what I

◼   ► did too and at the time i got it just

◼   ► before going to Tokyo my wife and I

◼   ► spent three months in tokyo i was

◼   ► working working there and it was it was

◼   ► actually I mean for me it was pretty

◼   ► good because it was like it was like a

◼   ► shuffle was like an iPod shuffle because

◼   ► you just loaded up with a few saw

◼   ► you know what obviously more size

◼   ► constraint but I it i had a like a

◼   ► 20-minute commute and it was it was

◼   ► perfect but you know it was funny the

◼   ► interface was so bad that i really do

◼   ► think no joke it was harder to find a

◼   ► specific song even though there were

◼   ► only ten or eleven songs total that down

◼   ► and I ipod yet you might have loaded was

◼   ► useless i'm at the interface for it was

◼   ► it was useless which is something that

◼   ► Apple rightly recognized there's no

◼   ► point in having the screen are you know

◼   ► what the songs are my hand right it

◼   ► shouldn't you're gonna play them at a

◼   ► random is going to land a random order

◼   ► great probably just made it worse right

◼   ► and it also comes to that thing it also

◼   ► gets to the point that Syracuse i made

◼   ► this week in an article about companies

◼   ► you know that the the software being the

◼   ► weak lincoln in all of these hardware

◼   ► products at CES like you know and that's

◼   ► the what was wrong with all the mp3

◼   ► players before the ipod was their

◼   ► software i mean the did the interface it

◼   ► was just horrendous and this is what is

◼   ► what i don't understand about this cheap

◼   ► iphone thing it is the way Apple made

◼   ► cheap ipods is by stripping out features

◼   ► and making a better more restricted

◼   ► device that just did less but did it

◼   ► really well and easily and i don't see

◼   ► how they're going to be able to do that

◼   ► with an iphone you can't strip out the

◼   ► platform you can't have one that's just

◼   ► a phone so what exactly area removing it

◼   ► and it seems like they're they're going

◼   ► with this

◼   ► you know to date they just been going

◼   ► with this last year's model thing right

◼   ► and how are they in and I don't

◼   ► understand if they're going to do that

◼   ► there's an intellectual laziness to the

◼   ► argument this this

◼   ► oh yes finally they're doing they're

◼   ► going to make a cheap iPhone you know

◼   ► and it's it's the same people who think

◼   ► that that's good

◼   ► welcome and good news you know but

◼   ► they're their arguments in favor of it

◼   ► are intellectually so lazy it really all

◼   ► comes down to what I call that the

◼   ► Church of market area it's just this

◼   ► religious fervor

◼   ► that market shares the most important

◼   ► thing and anything that's a move for

◼   ► market share is good in anything that

◼   ► doesn't help your market share is bad

◼   ► regardless of things like profitability

◼   ► or consumer loyalty or building out the

◼   ► platform in the same way from a

◼   ► developer's perspective

◼   ► none of that matters all that matters is

◼   ► if they sold an iphone cheaper they gain

◼   ► market share

◼   ► it's john sculley says that you

◼   ► shouldn't of itself that's it it's so

◼   ► facto it would be good for apple and if

◼   ► they don't do it it's bad and john

◼   ► skelly says you should do it you should

◼   ► not do it

◼   ► what way I didn't read this goalie thing

◼   ► that i have an opening basically say he

◼   ► is well as point was that they should

◼   ► make a small but I'm gonna cheaper

◼   ► iPhone to do just that you know and

◼   ► Scully is awesome so I know that he has

◼   ► a thing i didn't read it yet but he gets

◼   ► he's getting a bad rap because he he he

◼   ► Apple we didn't leave Apple in too bad a

◼   ► shape you know in the Newton thing

◼   ► didn't work out but boy he was sure was

◼   ► close to a thing you know I mean it's I

◼   ► just think he's but his business

◼   ► management is poorly suited to apples

◼   ► strength right but if I were him that

◼   ► said that if you know even given any

◼   ► left the company in pretty good shape

◼   ► and it was really Michael Spindler his

◼   ► successor who ran the company into the

◼   ► ground

◼   ► we never hear of any more I don't know

◼   ► what I cast he's the guy I'd like to

◼   ► hear people get it you know what do you

◼   ► think apples i get really good answer

◼   ► out of him but if I were Scully I boy I

◼   ► would never ever it get near those

◼   ► questions I just you know it that don't

◼   ► don't don't don't know what I mean

◼   ► you're the guy around Steve Jobs out of

◼   ► the company don't I would like to go and

◼   ► maybe you know and it's such a long

◼   ► complicated thing and maybe that really

◼   ► was good for jobs because it really made

◼   ► him re-evaluate things he learned

◼   ► lessons and you know you could even

◼   ► argue that that culturally next was more

◼   ► of like a sibling to Apple then its

◼   ► competitor and that the reunification in

◼   ► 1998 was really more like to have that

◼   ► never should have been separated coming

◼   ► together but it never would have

◼   ► happened if jobs hadn't been kicked out

◼   ► and you know they never would have had

◼   ► next step which turned into OS 10 and

◼   ► blah blah blah but it in a nutshell vout

◼   ► to Scully screwed up you know anybody

◼   ► like I feel like he should just say

◼   ► not one nice sentence about apple and

◼   ► and say I you know but I'm not going to

◼   ► comment on our manager yeah it's like

◼   ► it's like talking about an old

◼   ► girlfriend right here it's like what was

◼   ► his name Pete best talking about beetles

◼   ► out

◼   ► yeah you know what I mean like ghetto

◼   ► given a critique of you know what was

◼   ► wrong with the white album you know what

◼   ► Pete best is doesn't do that and that

◼   ► for a good reason

◼   ► talking about management old management

◼   ► of apple i would like to go back and

◼   ► look at I haven't done this recently and

◼   ► I don't know if there's a concise place

◼   ► to look at this but what the product mix

◼   ► looked like when jobs or when Emilio

◼   ► took over because they had all those ink

◼   ► and if you included the clones

◼   ► well I mean most of it was just a mess

◼   ► yeah it really was what yeah because it

◼   ► did clones were in place before Emilio

◼   ► came in right right Amelia wasn't there

◼   ► that long now only there for like was it

◼   ► less than a year maybe a year he gets a

◼   ► dee gets a bad rap too because he'd

◼   ► actually did a pretty good job

◼   ► I mean he didn't he didn't introduce

◼   ► anything new to fix the company but he

◼   ► stopped a lot of he stopped a lot of the

◼   ► bleeding yeah you know it was like a

◼   ► triage surgeon you know I mean like an

◼   ► ER doctor who came in and yeah and at

◼   ► least fixed the stuff that was awful and

◼   ► then it was up two jobs to come in and

◼   ► and you know get some new stuff that was

◼   ► going to you know turn it around yeah

◼   ► but I yeah I would love to see like one

◼   ► of the way I could just see it as one of

◼   ► those things like on a tumblr site like

◼   ► one of those posters but yeah and

◼   ► instead of just like all apple products

◼   ► in history just what was the product

◼   ► lineup like in the summer and 96 right

◼   ► did you will do what did you on back

◼   ► then I had a a powermac 9600 which was

◼   ► an incredible fish

◼   ► and at the time and I somehow i think it

◼   ► was a machine that like de beauté at

◼   ► like four or five grand and it somehow

◼   ► quickly got superseded i forget what

◼   ► happened a lot but I got it brand-new

◼   ► right after like the next thing and come

◼   ► out and I got it for like twenty one

◼   ► hundred dollars so so it is like six

◼   ► months earlier it was like 40 it was

◼   ► retailing for like 4500 and i got it for

◼   ► 2100 and use it for years it was one of

◼   ► my one of the best computers i brung ya

◼   ► I I performance 6400 which is widely

◼   ► considered a road Apple but i really

◼   ► liked that I really liked it it had

◼   ► argued that the power was it a Power

◼   ► Move was my thing called a parent

◼   ► alright yeah yeah I could it would have

◼   ► probably probably would again but a

◼   ► pretty sure that it was a was only still

◼   ► making always a 96 hardly swimming

◼   ► cuadras now it wasn't a quadrant because

◼   ► it was wasn't quadra a Quadra wasn't

◼   ► powerpc and the locators powerpc right

◼   ► okay i think there was power million and

◼   ► I remember specifically that was in 9600

◼   ► because i named my hard drive like how

◼   ► 9600 my hard drive icon on that machine

◼   ► was how icon so I thought you know it's

◼   ► 9600 and how was the how 9000 you know

◼   ► obvious obvious way to name your

◼   ► computer

◼   ► did you use a kaleidoscope and lots of

◼   ► icon packs and I that's a great question

◼   ► i did on and off for years

◼   ► yeah I a kaleidoscope I didn't really

◼   ► get into but i did use because I feel

◼   ► like when collaborate on kaleidoscope

◼   ► came out i had outgrown that right what

◼   ► I had what I remember using was it

◼   ► called Aaron maybe there was that we had

◼   ► and it was by the guy who eventually

◼   ► went on to make kaleidoscope with

◼   ► somebody else but it was Aaron and he

◼   ► also had one it was just an extension

◼   ► you dropped in your folder and it

◼   ► changed the look and feel of your

◼   ► windows to look like any of this

◼   ► this is crazy part is that Apple had

◼   ► purposefully seated like to Macworld mac

◼   ► user screenshots of the next generation

◼   ► mac OS the copeland and whatever the

◼   ► other Gershwin whatever the hell they're

◼   ► coming out with and they were like

◼   ► here's what it's going to look like like

◼   ► the heck they were like so desperate for

◼   ► publicity and and they're so stagnant on

◼   ► the OS is that the key people excited

◼   ► they revealed like two years in advance

◼   ► what everything was going to look like

◼   ► and so this guy was in Greg land weber

◼   ► made extension called Aaron which gave

◼   ► you that look and feel right now I think

◼   ► I was like ten dollars shareware or

◼   ► something yeah and then he came out with

◼   ► one I forgot what it was called but it

◼   ► did the same thing but made the mac look

◼   ► like the BOS with the yellow tab style

◼   ► windows right around that for a while

◼   ► yeah but like I said I'd like you said i

◼   ► think it's it's it's a niche that you

◼   ► you get for a while and then once you've

◼   ► scratched it you're done yeah all of a

◼   ► sudden you feel silly yeah maybe it's an

◼   ► age or maybe it's an agent of personal

◼   ► yeah cost players i haven't had an

◼   ► awesome time a lot of hydrogen i got

◼   ► like that i don't know i always thought

◼   ► that especially in those days with the

◼   ► system extensions that the the curve for

◼   ► power users was that as you got more and

◼   ► more into your mac as an enthusiast in a

◼   ► geek and someone who's just into it

◼   ► you added more and more extensions and

◼   ► when you you know for those of you who

◼   ► don't remember when you booted your mac

◼   ► in those days each system extension you

◼   ► had would put a little icon up at the

◼   ► bottom of the screen and you get this

◼   ► usually would just go across one row but

◼   ► if you were like really into it you get

◼   ► two rows and if you really loaded your

◼   ► system up with extensions you know you

◼   ► get the third row or even a fourth row

◼   ► and you can measure how much of a nerd

◼   ► you were by how many rows of those icons

◼   ► you got when you started your computer

◼   ► but i always thought that when you got

◼   ► to a certain point that it was like a

◼   ► bell curve and it started going down the

◼   ► other way and the people who really knew

◼   ► the mac and really got into it ran with

◼   ► his few extensions as possible because

◼   ► there was always that that sense of

◼   ► dread that it would stop as it was

◼   ► loading because it was happens sometimes

◼   ► yeah that that you'd be doing it and one

◼   ► of the icons and come out and it was

◼   ► just operate

◼   ► which is the operating system which is

◼   ► lockout while we're booting because

◼   ► you've got the conflict i know i've

◼   ► talked about this probably with dan on

◼   ► old talk show but like one of the like

◼   ► greatest software one of the greatest

◼   ► apps in the history of mac OS was

◼   ► content Hatcher yea which was a program

◼   ► whose entire point was defined and help

◼   ► you find and identify conflicts between

◼   ► system extensions and identify them and

◼   ► then you could have like you know if

◼   ► extension a witch made your cursor turn

◼   ► into a Snoopy dog when instead of a

◼   ► watch on you were waiting for something

◼   ► conflicted with the extension be which

◼   ► gave you like a system-wide applescript

◼   ► menu or something like that you could

◼   ► like set presets and say ok when i'm

◼   ► running this extension I'm not running

◼   ► this one and when i'm running the other

◼   ► one I'm not running this one and you

◼   ► could like switch between them when you

◼   ► started up and that the app I just

◼   ► remember it's like you know it's like if

◼   ► what were they doing that the app was

◼   ► written by Jeff Robin who went on to

◼   ► write sound jam which you may have heard

◼   ► of is now called items and he still at

◼   ► apple always really ok now because he

◼   ► still does the demos he did the demo of

◼   ► itunes a lot of how he still in charge

◼   ► of itunes but conflict catches a huge

◼   ► hit and it's just funny and hindsight

◼   ► that it was necessary because we're

◼   ► running these things do they eventually

◼   ► well they made they made their own right

◼   ► they made some sort of contract but i

◼   ► wasn't i wasn't nearly as powerful I

◼   ► don't like you could do it manually but

◼   ► you couldn't save sets or something like

◼   ► that

◼   ► yes happen well the gist of it though is

◼   ► that a you know ultimately long-term

◼   ► they needed to move this something like

◼   ► Mac os10 with a modern architecture

◼   ► where one process isn't going to hang

◼   ► the weather it's an extension or

◼   ► whatever isn't going to hang your whole

◼   ► computer but like the people who used to

◼   ► complain about their max locking up

◼   ► inevitably had like four rows of system

◼   ► extensions and they were all using you

◼   ► know api's that weren't meant to be used

◼   ► by third-party developers whereas if you

◼   ► just stuck to what apple gave uses ran

◼   ► the stock OS it was very very

◼   ► liable and and it was pretty hard dude

◼   ► to do that though there were so many I

◼   ► mean developers just began to ship those

◼   ► things like crazy and and you get a new

◼   ► you get a new box set of software and it

◼   ► would install 15 extensions right

◼   ► everything was an extension man you

◼   ► needed like Adobe tight man just a

◼   ► render PostScript fonts you needed an

◼   ► extension from Adobe ATM adobe type

◼   ► manager and you had the name adobe type

◼   ► managers is we really have two weeks

◼   ► here but remember you had the name adobe

◼   ► type manager with the tilde oh yeah

◼   ► there's have until the ATM because it

◼   ► had a load last because if I don't even

◼   ► know why but you had to make sure it

◼   ► loaded last night loaded in alphabetical

◼   ► order until the sorted to the bottom

◼   ► whereas most punctuation characters

◼   ► sorted to the top before the letters and

◼   ► so is tilde ATM I don't miss that

◼   ► no I don't miss that at all which was

◼   ► sort of the one with thing that windows

◼   ► I mean even as a Mac user we have to say

◼   ► that windows 95 with protected memory

◼   ► and none of that stuff was was actually

◼   ► an improvement we would bitch about the

◼   ► look and feel and how it was all stolen

◼   ► from yeah there was your final actually

◼   ► had only a stable mac that was

◼   ► antithetical to apples the the way

◼   ► things ought to it ran you know that you

◼   ► really did have to be it's almost the

◼   ► it's almost a complete polar opposite of

◼   ► the appstore mindset where the appstore

◼   ► mindset is look we vetted this stuff and

◼   ► it's in a techno groups both two levels

◼   ► of protection a we vetted it personally

◼   ► before we allowed into the storm be

◼   ► there is a sandbox that's technically

◼   ► locks this software into an area where

◼   ► it's not going to mess up your whole

◼   ► system so we can't guarantee that the

◼   ► app is going to be good but we can

◼   ► guarantee you that it's not going to

◼   ► you're not going to screw up your

◼   ► computer in any way by installing

◼   ► anything from the appstore whereas in

◼   ► that those the nineties with the late

◼   ► era of system 7 and system 8 you really

◼   ► had to almost be an expert when you

◼   ► installed anything to like make sure

◼   ► that it wasn't going to hold your system

◼   ► which was exactly the opposite of the

◼   ► system seven and eight days we really

◼   ► had to do like a before-and-after on

◼   ► your extensions folder to make sure

◼   ► that nothing sketchy had been stuck in

◼   ► there and you set a new allocated memory

◼   ► manually

◼   ► Oh remember that that seems so

◼   ► ridiculous as it's completely ridiculous

◼   ► you the human being decided how much my

◼   ► photoshop ram doubler and anyway we

◼   ► should stop talking about that because

◼   ► someone you know what though it doesn't

◼   ► feel though that it does show that apple

◼   ► yet

◼   ► Apple was not in great shape in nineteen

◼   ► ray six that's the point right and its

◼   ► name anyways but I do want to talk about

◼   ► the stock the whole stock thing

◼   ► yeah I do but let's do it before you get

◼   ► into the stock thing let's take a break

◼   ► and i will do i'm going to do a sponsor

◼   ► break yet i want to tell you about it

◼   ► i'm going to tell you about a great new

◼   ► app for the ipad is called infinite

◼   ► refrigerator infinite refrigerator that

◼   ► name is going to make total sense to you

◼   ► as soon as I tell you what it does

◼   ► infinite refrigerator provide you with

◼   ► one or more personalized virtual

◼   ► refrigerators and the ideas that you

◼   ► make one for each of your kids and you

◼   ► use it to display digital photos

◼   ► pictures of artwork report cards notes

◼   ► anything that you might put up your

◼   ► real-life refrigerator in your kitchen

◼   ► you can put up instead on your virtual

◼   ► refrigerator in infinite refrigerator

◼   ► why would you do this easy it eliminates

◼   ► the guilt that sort of associate

◼   ► implicit guild when you put stuff up on

◼   ► a refrigerator and then time goes on you

◼   ► get more pictures and you've got to take

◼   ► the old stuff down to put the new stuff

◼   ► up if you do an infinite refrigerator

◼   ► instead you never have to take stuff

◼   ► down you can just keep piling again

◼   ► because it's a computer it can store all

◼   ► and gives you a permanent digital home

◼   ► for these type of mementos right photos

◼   ► that you store on an infinite

◼   ► refrigerator support full screen pan and

◼   ► zoom just like the built-in Photos app

◼   ► you can pick them from your camera roll

◼   ► or you can take a new picture using the

◼   ► app

◼   ► put them up it looks like a thumbnail on

◼   ► this little virtual fridge is a little

◼   ► magnet tap the photo zooms to fullscreen

◼   ► pan and zoom everything you want tap

◼   ► again to close your back to the

◼   ► refrigerator view you can supply a title

◼   ► and a note for each photo you can even

◼   ► record audio commentary or have your kid

◼   ► record audio commentary describing the

◼   ► photo or the picture of the image or

◼   ► whatever it is in our own voice unlike

◼   ► the real refrigerator in your kitchen

◼   ► the an infinite refrigerator never

◼   ► forget right and hanging next to each

◼   ► infinite refrigerator is a calendar all

◼   ► right there on screen tap the calendar

◼   ► and you can go back in time and see what

◼   ► the refrigerator look like before this

◼   ► is the type of app where it's kind of

◼   ► fun to use to keep you know to start

◼   ► using but you're really not Yugi and you

◼   ► can just imagine the benefits really are

◼   ► going to come until you've been using it

◼   ► for months or a year or even a couple of

◼   ► years and you have a whole bunch of

◼   ► mementos stored in this thing and then

◼   ► you can use the calendar view to go back

◼   ► and see what it looked like six months

◼   ► or a year ago and just sort of page

◼   ► through time like that bridges the whole

◼   ► fridge the whole collage type layout

◼   ► that you make or any individual photo

◼   ► can be shared

◼   ► if through the app via email I message

◼   ► twitter facebook all the standard iOS

◼   ► sharing stuff so how much does it cost

◼   ► here's the deal it's an ipad app built

◼   ► for iOS 6 download the app from the

◼   ► appstore absolutely free free download

◼   ► but here's the hitch you only get one

◼   ► fridge to start with its place for blue

◼   ► now you can make more than one of them

◼   ► but if you want to use the other colors

◼   ► they've got five other styles and colors

◼   ► and fridges it's an in-app purchase 199

◼   ► so it's a free app downloaded there's no

◼   ► limits to it but you're using the blue

◼   ► fridge you want to use other colors too

◼   ► box-to-box to unlock the whole app super

◼   ► cheap

◼   ► what a great deal their website go to

◼   ► infinite refrigerator dot-com that

◼   ► infinite refrigerator calm you'll find

◼   ► that all the information you need you'll

◼   ► get to see how cool it looks really cool

◼   ► built for kids

◼   ► last thing I noticed is the in the

◼   ► little virtual kitchen you get there's a

◼   ► little virtual kitchen service around in

◼   ► your fridge they even have a toaster and

◼   ► you can write messages on a piece of

◼   ► toast and keep that in there so I feel

◼   ► like there's something in here and you

◼   ► could tie this together with that Tim

◼   ► Cook line last year about combining a

◼   ► toaster in refrigerator but those things

◼   ► are probably not going to be pleasing to

◼   ► the user

◼   ► well here's an app that combines a

◼   ► refrigerator and a toaster and it's

◼   ► actually pretty cool so maybe maybe Tim

◼   ► Cook was wrong on that once again my

◼   ► thanks to infinite refrigerator go check

◼   ► them out at infinite refrigerator

◼   ► dot-com so the stock

◼   ► yes I'd what do you want what do you

◼   ► want to say about this doc I try not to

◼   ► write out the stock but I feel like

◼   ► what's happened recently is so

◼   ► extraordinary that it's so absurd that

◼   ► you can't not talk about it right

◼   ► I I nice try to spend at least a little

◼   ► bit of time trying to understand the

◼   ► situation with the options with the call

◼   ► options on this why because you had

◼   ► posted a link to something from november

◼   ► explaining why they're there is a large

◼   ► block of options out there so that with

◼   ► with prices in the range of like 552 800

◼   ► or something like that so it is it is in

◼   ► the best interest of these money

◼   ► managers who have those options out

◼   ► there to try to keep apples price down

◼   ► until they expire

◼   ► I don't know what I don't know enough

◼   ► about the stock market and what like an

◼   ► option like that cost for cost but let

◼   ► you know the gist of it though is it

◼   ► back in the summer when the stock was

◼   ► flying really high like up around seven

◼   ► hundred dollars but in and spent most of

◼   ► the summer and that 600 people who

◼   ► bought these options bought them options

◼   ► come with have an expiration date and it

◼   ► seems like a lot of them expire this

◼   ► week right

◼   ► aah at price points let's say like you

◼   ► said 550 to 650 or something like that

◼   ► people who thought the stock would still

◼   ► be like that so you'd buy the option

◼   ► ah

◼   ► or let's say i don't know i don't know

◼   ► why I'm phone is out there ten bucks i

◼   ► don't know maybe it's higher it's got to

◼   ► be hot maybe it's higher but you by the

◼   ► option for ten dollars you don't know

◼   ► the stock you're not buying a stock

◼   ► you're just buying the right to buy the

◼   ► stock at a certain right price at a

◼   ► certain date and you're betting that

◼   ► come january nineteen apple stock will

◼   ► still be up at like seven hundred

◼   ► dollars and your option to buy the stock

◼   ► at five hundred and fifty dollars means

◼   ► you can buy a whole bunch of shares of

◼   ► apple at 550

◼   ► come January and it's already worth

◼   ► seven hundred dollars because that's

◼   ► what the stock is that and then you make

◼   ► money you made money by betting that the

◼   ► stock would be higher on that date then

◼   ► the option price and on that could

◼   ► converse side the person who sells these

◼   ► options is making sort of the opposite

◼   ► bet and if come the date that the

◼   ► options expire the stock is under that

◼   ► striking price for the option they win

◼   ► because they keep the money that you

◼   ► paid for that ten bucks per share that

◼   ► you paid for the option to buy it and

◼   ► they still own share that they had to

◼   ► buy to cover these options if the person

◼   ► that actually bought them but because

◼   ► it's under the price they don't have to

◼   ► sell it right is that did that sound

◼   ► right that sounds right to me

◼   ► yes right so that there's all these

◼   ► institutional investors who in and the

◼   ► guy you know and I guess these options

◼   ► you can you can look up what the options

◼   ► are mean it wasn't like he was making

◼   ► stuff up like like we do he was actually

◼   ► found on you know all these are you know

◼   ► he was telling all the options that are

◼   ► out there just at five hundred and fifty

◼   ► dollars and it was like I don't six

◼   ► hundred million dollars worth of them

◼   ► and that wasn't counting the ones at

◼   ► higher prices so it's easy to say that

◼   ► there's well over a billion dollars at

◼   ► stake if Apple's stock is like at 500 or

◼   ► lower in the next two days

◼   ► yeah which in turn leads to another

◼   ► people who have those options certainly

◼   ► motivates them to sort of poo-poo

◼   ► badmouth the stock and make you know

◼   ► these arguments like we've been talking

◼   ► about earlier in the show about why

◼   ► apple's and trouble and that they're not

◼   ► doing too well and

◼   ► stock is down and we should say that the

◼   ► bulk of this this recent decline and

◼   ► apples

◼   ► well I don't know where it's at now

◼   ► actually but the sort of the doldrums

◼   ► that they're in right now is because a

◼   ► couple of publications came out and said

◼   ► that iphone 5 demand was soft based on

◼   ► the fact that they had heard from some

◼   ► people

◼   ► nameless people that Apple had cut

◼   ► orders for iphone 5 screens in half

◼   ► right without really getting into what

◼   ► exactly that means right i mean here's

◼   ► the the wall street journal version of

◼   ► it there are 22 publications that had

◼   ► this I guess sunday night to monday

◼   ► morning like it ran on the front page i

◼   ► think of the journal monday and it was

◼   ► knee-high and I kk e is Japanese paper i

◼   ► don't know if it's like the Japanese

◼   ► equivalent of the wall street journal or

◼   ► what but then that but it's japanese and

◼   ► so what I know about it is all

◼   ► secondhand its people i guess can read

◼   ► Japanese and and translating it and the

◼   ► journal which seemingly had the exact

◼   ► same information here's how the journal

◼   ► story started and the headline was Apple

◼   ► cuts orders for iphone parts Apple

◼   ► incorporated has cut its orders for

◼   ► components for the iphone 5 due to

◼   ► weaker than expected demand people

◼   ► familiar with the situation said monday

◼   ► so there's like no if ands or butts in

◼   ► that sentence right i mean they're not

◼   ► saying who the people familiar with the

◼   ► situation are never going to really

◼   ► clarify but that's if you take that at

◼   ► face value if you read The Wall Street

◼   ► Journal ending that well it's the wall

◼   ► street journal so you know if you read

◼   ► it must be true there's no hemming and

◼   ► hawing or well it you know there's two

◼   ► things in there one that the components

◼   ► were cut by half

◼   ► no I didn't say that in the first

◼   ► paragraph but it does say in the next

◼   ► paragraph it says apples orders for

◼   ► iphone screens for the january-march

◼   ► quarter for example has dropped to

◼   ► roughly half of what the company had

◼   ► previously planned to order two of the

◼   ► people said so half is a huge number

◼   ► that's huge it doesn't matter what you

◼   ► know what what it was from her too

◼   ► and they don't hammer horror say maybe

◼   ► it's or that it's a sign of weaker than

◼   ► expected demand for the iphone 5 they

◼   ► say that the journal says it's due to

◼   ► weaker than expected demand and you know

◼   ► the stock took a bath on that over the

◼   ► next two days I mean really will trick

◼   ► to get dropped by i forget like a market

◼   ► cap why's it drop by like a hundred and

◼   ► seventy million dollars billion dollars

◼   ► which is like bigger than all but like

◼   ► maybe like the 10 biggest corporations

◼   ► in the world like they dropped in value

◼   ► by more than the size of most big

◼   ► companies and reunite originally they

◼   ► used to be and i wrote a lot about it

◼   ► this week i don't think the whole thing

◼   ► is pile of horseshit

◼   ► I really do at and at the the nikkei i

◼   ► won from Japan gave actual numbers it

◼   ► said that they said that the original

◼   ► order was for 65 million displays

◼   ► apparently apparently the journal had

◼   ► that in there originally and then right

◼   ► and then remove took it out like sunday

◼   ► night online they had that in there and

◼   ► I don't think it don't think it appeared

◼   ► in print and by the time i read the

◼   ► story monday morning it wasn't in there

◼   ► that they had the same thing but they

◼   ► didn't replace it with another number

◼   ► which to me is a huge problem when you

◼   ► say it's dropped by half but you don't

◼   ► say what what you don't even give a

◼   ► ballpark range for what the original

◼   ► numbers were there's no way to ever

◼   ► verify that right there because then

◼   ► come next quarter apple can and will

◼   ► release and say how many iphones they

◼   ► sold and we can take a pretty good guess

◼   ► that what percentage of them or iPhone 5

◼   ► is based on the average selling price

◼   ► and whatever that number is you could

◼   ► say well the journal was right because

◼   ► Apple expected to sell double that no

◼   ► matter what it is because they didn't

◼   ► give the number

◼   ► yeah it's like when amazon says that

◼   ► they've sold the most handles ever in a

◼   ► quarter but they never tell you how many

◼   ► they sold so who knows you know maybe

◼   ► they went from 10 to 11 right or that

◼   ► the you know I forget amazon always does

◼   ► that they never reveal how many candles

◼   ► they've sold but they'll say things like

◼   ► it you know a hundred and fifty percent

◼   ► higher than the previous record for

◼   ► kindle sold in the quarter

◼   ► yeah but it's you know a hundred and

◼   ► fifty percent of ? and if they could

◼   ► guess if the number add it's just none

◼   ► of it is that makes sense because it's

◼   ► it's unlikely that they would order 65

◼   ► million screens for the current quarter

◼   ► right it really makes no sense and

◼   ► nobody seemed to question this hour

◼   ► well I did but it seems like most people

◼   ► people who should know better never

◼   ► questioned it that it's such an unusual

◼   ► number because there's the most i've

◼   ► ever sold in a quarter is 37 million

◼   ► that's iphones and a quarter and that

◼   ► was last year's holiday quarter and this

◼   ► year there's the consensus among

◼   ► analysts both the wall street ones and

◼   ► the independent analysts like Andy's a

◼   ► ques you know have a much more accurate

◼   ► track record is about 50 million so they

◼   ► would go from 37 million last year 250

◼   ► million this year year-over-year for the

◼   ► holiday quarter and nobody is really

◼   ► picking a number much higher than 50 and

◼   ► the next quarter after the holiday

◼   ► quarter they've always sold for less

◼   ► than the holiday quarter because there's

◼   ► so many people who buy them as holiday

◼   ► gifts and now the last two years the

◼   ► holiday quarter is when the new iphone

◼   ► came out so you get the double whammy of

◼   ► both the people who are like my gosh

◼   ► you're like I want the new iphone as

◼   ► soon as it comes out in order in that

◼   ► quarter and you get the holiday gift

◼   ► bump like so last year they went from 37

◼   ► million in the holiday quarter 35

◼   ► million in this January to March quarter

◼   ► which is like I think roughly five

◼   ► percent drop in all previous years

◼   ► there's some level of dropped from

◼   ► holiday to the next quarter but yet if

◼   ► you take this 65 million number at face

◼   ► value then somehow Apple expected thirty

◼   ► percent growth in the january-march

◼   ► quarter after the holiday quarter even

◼   ► though there's no historical reason for

◼   ► it and they're not introducing a new

◼   ► model or anything like that it just

◼   ► doesn't make any sense

◼   ► like if they actually wanted to order

◼   ► that many displays ah it seems like

◼   ► somebody was drunk right

◼   ► although i did I guess the other

◼   ► argument i've seen which I hadn't

◼   ► thought of the other argument i've seen

◼   ► any horses did you you know and

◼   ► typically the smart bed basket but

◼   ► somebody pointed out that it could just

◼   ► be that they're getting

◼   ► higher-than-expected yields that maybe

◼   ► they you know have expected that only

◼   ► four out of every five displays they

◼   ► ordered would be up to their stuff and

◼   ► that they're finding that you know

◼   ► ninety-five percent of them are passing

◼   ► requirements so that they may be they

◼   ► originally planned to order 65 million

◼   ► not because they expected to buy sell 65

◼   ► million iphones but that they needed 65

◼   ► million to sell 45 million because they

◼   ► expected 20 million of them to be duds

◼   ► or something like that she's so there's

◼   ► other arguments you can make but it's

◼   ► still the 65 million thing just does not

◼   ► it doesn't make any sense now and it

◼   ► doesn't make any sense that they would

◼   ► need to cut it in half due to this is

◼   ► the bigger part I think we're regardless

◼   ► of the actual number the bigger part is

◼   ► whether such a cut-off would be due to

◼   ► weaker than expected demand because

◼   ► there seems to be no sign that there's

◼   ► weaker-than-expected right now they only

◼   ► want us across the border saying that

◼   ► they expect 50 million iphones sold this

◼   ► quarter with the quarter they're going

◼   ► to announce next week verses 37 million

◼   ► last year which is higher not lower and

◼   ► they only caught up with demand about a

◼   ► month ago right they spent most of that

◼   ► the holiday quarter with you know you go

◼   ► to the website with many times when you

◼   ► ordered one they spent most of you know

◼   ► up until I think December they you know

◼   ► they hadn't production hadn't caught up

◼   ► with demand they clearly been making

◼   ► them as fast as they could this

◼   ► ridiculous a minute of course the usual

◼   ► collection of nerdy wells have been

◼   ► saying seaweed we know we told you that

◼   ► iphones nobody out nobody likes iphones

◼   ► anymore right and the thing I got you

◼   ► know an undated with his accusations of

◼   ► you know I think what I sort of got one

◼   ► guy called me Baghdad Bob but you know

◼   ► it's like I don't know it's that guy

◼   ► can't win

◼   ► you know I mean there's no use worrying

◼   ► about it

◼   ► I mean but this is you know this is why

◼   ► I drink but this is no way at you know

◼   ► they're so convinced that doesn't matter

◼   ► how many holes you logical solid holes

◼   ► you can poke and say boy this just

◼   ► doesn't add up

◼   ► and.and point2 interesting ways of

◼   ► looking at why it doesn't add up

◼   ► it's it's the fact that there's so many

◼   ► people and it gets back to you know what

◼   ► we're talking with beginning of the show

◼   ► who are so convinced that Apple it is

◼   ► set to fall and that the iphone is

◼   ► collapsing that they just took that

◼   ► journal story and and that's it that's

◼   ► the gospel right and so anybody who's

◼   ► arguing otherwise just grasping at

◼   ► straws because they're below an apple

◼   ► yeah because it's a religion fall

◼   ► because it's a religion

◼   ► yeah so next week there's a couple

◼   ► things to look for a little look to see

◼   ► what happens with apple's share price

◼   ► because of these options right and then

◼   ► look to see at the conference call for

◼   ► the conference call how many how many

◼   ► iphones this is old which you should do

◼   ► every quarter but right i do wish that

◼   ► they would break it i guess you know I

◼   ► can I mean we should be lucky because

◼   ► Apple reveals a lot more sales data than

◼   ► a lot of its competitors I mean like I

◼   ► said amazon has never revealed how many

◼   ► candles they've sold of any kind google

◼   ► never reveals how many android phones

◼   ► are so they just have that weird

◼   ► activation number that they never define

◼   ► what the hell yawns yeah

◼   ► in the end you know they certainly don't

◼   ► reveal numbers of their own nexus stuff

◼   ► which they would no more than just

◼   ► activation they should know exact sales

◼   ► numbers nobody really reveals any of

◼   ► that so it gives you wish I mean greedy

◼   ► though I wish that apple would break it

◼   ► down and say we saw this morning iphone

◼   ► 5 this many fours and this many 4 s's

◼   ► yeah I guess so apparently i guess it's

◼   ► not it's not required for audit purposes

◼   ► to do that no but that you can kind of

◼   ► backwards engineer at tho by at least

◼   ► getting the ballpark estimate by looking

◼   ► at the average selling price and right

◼   ► through analytics but it's kind of weird

◼   ► that app developers and website mobile

◼   ► websites looking at their statistics can

◼   ► kind of suss out how many although i'm

◼   ► not sure if a website can tell if your

◼   ► iPhone's and iphone 5

◼   ► I think it would just know the version

◼   ► number i guess it's only the app

◼   ► developers that get the analytics that

◼   ► they can kind of tell you know what the

◼   ► cpu is you can tell my story you can

◼   ► tell by screen you can tell by screen

◼   ► size right can you do the and it doesn't

◼   ► tell the screen size

◼   ► oh it does i I don't know in that

◼   ► instance you can I guess I'm but guess

◼   ► what I'm saying is I don't know how do I

◼   ► i know i said i guess that does report i

◼   ► guess since the iphone it does report

◼   ► the screen size you can tell because the

◼   ► only iphone with the 1136 pixels height

◼   ► is the iphone 5 but it's weird that

◼   ► apple reports more than another million

◼   ► apple which is famously close secrets

◼   ► your damn serious and reports more about

◼   ► what they sell them other companies

◼   ► still yeah and we know part of it is

◼   ► that they're not really secretive about

◼   ► everything they're really mostly

◼   ► secretive about what they're going to do

◼   ► right and they're not so secretive about

◼   ► way they don't have done you know and I

◼   ► feel you know I've always said this to

◼   ► that you know and then still continues

◼   ► even now that jobs gone but jobs

◼   ► explanations on stage talking about

◼   ► products really i always thought they

◼   ► were incredibly insightful and and

◼   ► honest about where the where Apple was

◼   ► coming from when they made the thing you

◼   ► know that there was like an honest

◼   ► explanation of here's what we were

◼   ► thinking we could do and here's how we

◼   ► did it

◼   ► yeah i went back and watch the imac

◼   ► unveiling which I'd never and i think

◼   ► i've actually seen that before I don't

◼   ► think i'm losing what's he wearing like

◼   ► a weird suit yeah he was wearing ass 12

◼   ► who's wearing a jacket

◼   ► it was like a suit with us with a

◼   ► button-up shirt button at the top of

◼   ► that i was weird as I guess it's sort of

◼   ► like if you ever thought like you know

◼   ► in the heyday and that the whole decade

◼   ► long run if you ever like cross your

◼   ► mind like why does he wear the same

◼   ► stuff every day on then you look at some

◼   ► of the stuff he wore before we settled

◼   ► on that and you're like maybe he was

◼   ► right to settle on the black certain

◼   ► genes and that's it

◼   ► get some goofy outfits in this first

◼   ► couple years

◼   ► yeah he swore us like a sweater vest for

◼   ► all for a long time right you have the

◼   ► do you have a link to that youtube is on

◼   ► youtube

◼   ► yes it doesn't your i can find it for

◼   ► you should tell me don't put that in the

◼   ► show channel

◼   ► yeah but it's interesting though it's

◼   ► just funny how am I eat out the mouse is

◼   ► like the best master never make it

◼   ► you know you could get people fired up

◼   ► around that you know this this is why on

◼   ► is a enormous fan of the hockey puck are

◼   ► you kidding me loved it and she African

◼   ► she tweeted about it a couple months ago

◼   ► and a couple of other of our nerd

◼   ► friends a couple of them chimed in and

◼   ► said you know I liked it too

◼   ► it was not universally despised although

◼   ► i think it was majority despised yeah I

◼   ► had I had a little like they use this

◼   ► old like this clip on things these

◼   ► plastic like I think clip-on tie but

◼   ► basically a piece of plastic you clicked

◼   ► on it to make it a more like a normal

◼   ► Mouse yeah I I never had a computer that

◼   ► came with one of the brown my so I never

◼   ► really spent a lot of time with it

◼   ► I mean it's but i guess the argument the

◼   ► main argument about it was that because

◼   ► it was perfectly round there was no way

◼   ► to tell which way it would when you just

◼   ► held it right now looking at was the

◼   ► necessary i was with the orientation was

◼   ► yeah yeah and I did not a fast a lot of

◼   ► other is uncomfortable to it was wide

◼   ► width

◼   ► width

◼   ► I like because it just fit that felt

◼   ► good but I couldn't couldn't tell which

◼   ► one's going to let me do the second

◼   ► sponsor break and then we can wrap up

◼   ► and finish the show our second sponsor

◼   ► long-term big fans of the talk show if

◼   ► you listen to know that their regular

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◼   ► stalks coffee you drink coffee John i do

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◼   ► tried the talks i have not yet but it's

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◼   ► but this is see this is why they're

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◼   ► know you get me that there are a lot of

◼   ► people out there just like you who are

◼   ► coffee drinkers talk show listeners and

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◼   ► think you know what I'm going to get

◼   ► around that I'm going to sign up for

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◼   ► well I'm telling you that you should get

◼   ► off your asses go to tongs dot org and

◼   ► sign up and try it and you're going to

◼   ► thank me later and you're gonna look

◼   ► here some of the tweets i still get I've

◼   ► i save these tweets

◼   ► here's a tweet from Terra man minn

◼   ► alright trying out talks coffee your

◼   ► sponsorship of groupers talk show worked

◼   ► I'm excited well I guarantee she's gonna

◼   ► be happy that she did it

◼   ► here's another one Matthew rather long

◼   ► time listener the talk show is ready

◼   ► tweeted I thought the coffee from the

◼   ► big-box membership store was ok then i

◼   ► tried talks coffee can't drink that shit

◼   ► anymore i'm too that's how good talks

◼   ► that's the end I'm telling you that's

◼   ► the biggest downside to talks is you

◼   ► sign up for tongues they before you've

◼   ► signed up they've gone around the world

◼   ► source the best beans from all around

◼   ► the globe

◼   ► they've roasted them themselves just

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◼   ► up at your door

◼   ► the only downside to this is the best

◼   ► coffee in the world roasted to

◼   ► perfection fresh sent to your door the

◼   ► downside is you get harder and harder to

◼   ► drink stuff that not talks coffee

◼   ► because everything else starts tasting

◼   ► like like crap i can't say enough good

◼   ► things about them i keep getting these

◼   ► tweets and emails from people who are

◼   ► you know why I listened to it I tried it

◼   ► you were right it's great

◼   ► I don't don't think about is something

◼   ► going to eventually do it now you're

◼   ► gonna thank me for it you can go there

◼   ► you'd end the best part is a great deal

◼   ► this is to me is the the genius of their

◼   ► business model is this free trial

◼   ► because nobody wants to sign up for a

◼   ► subscription site unseen no matter how

◼   ► many good things i say about them

◼   ► they're not nobody why I feel like a lot

◼   ► of people you need nobody wants to say

◼   ► I'm gonna spend you know however much

◼   ► money a month and then I've got if I

◼   ► don't like it if I'm not satisfied i

◼   ► gotta back out

◼   ► you don't have to take my word for it

◼   ► free trial they'll just send you some

◼   ► and you're going to try and then you're

◼   ► going to think when I was not I should

◼   ► have just listened to him and paid for

◼   ► it and signed up so go ahead talk story

◼   ► do x.org go check them out if you drink

◼   ► coffee you're gonna thank me later

◼   ► what else we got left on the agenda

◼   ► here's a question I and again I I this

◼   ► is one of the reasons why i somehow i

◼   ► sometimes feel out of place talking

◼   ► about the stock is I'm not really a

◼   ► stock expert and in my apples stock

◼   ► price is not really the reason that I

◼   ► follow them i don't own apple stock

◼   ► because I don't feel like it would be

◼   ► appropriate with what i do but i do feel

◼   ► though that it's it is like it when it

◼   ► really fluctuates like it has recently

◼   ► it it's a level of absurdity that even

◼   ► somebody like me is not an expert can

◼   ► can see that this just is irrational you

◼   ► know that it's not built on based on

◼   ► what what investors called the

◼   ► fundamentals meaning the numbers right

◼   ► there's there's so many it's like 12

◼   ► dimensional chip is like trying to

◼   ► understand well dimensional chest

◼   ► there's so many other things that go

◼   ► into it so many and so many things based

◼   ► there just straight-out gambling that

◼   ► have nothing to do with the company at

◼   ► all like these options like these option

◼   ► calls that it it seems like they're just

◼   ► better off not worry about it

◼   ► I so there's a there's a measurement of

◼   ► a company's stock price called the the

◼   ► p/e ratio price-to-earnings and again

◼   ► correct me if I'm wrong but the basic

◼   ► idea is you take the company's profits

◼   ► and you multiply it by a certain or you

◼   ► take the company's stock price and you

◼   ► divide it by what their prophets are and

◼   ► that's the p/e ratio in other words the

◼   ► price of the stock versus how much

◼   ► profit they're making I guess quarterly

◼   ► and like the average for the S&P 500 is

◼   ► 15 in other words the average stock

◼   ► price of a big company is about 15 times

◼   ► the profit of the company and you know

◼   ► some companies hire some companies are

◼   ► lower but you know 15 and to me seems

◼   ► like a reasonable i did that somehow it

◼   ► makes sense to me that seems about right

◼   ► what 15 is a you know for years

◼   ► quarterly you know so a company is worth

◼   ► about four years times its profits I

◼   ► don't know sounds about right

◼   ► Apple's is it like 10 and if you

◼   ► subtract the hundred billion dollars in

◼   ► cash that they have in the bank which

◼   ► seems fair because if you're just going

◼   ► to say here's what the company's worth

◼   ► which is what the stock price is

◼   ► supposed to represent the cast you

◼   ► should be able to just subtract from

◼   ► that if you subtract that massive amount

◼   ► of cash

◼   ► it's nine so there-there p/e ratio is

◼   ► way less than the average company yet

◼   ► they've been in the midst of this

◼   ► incredible growth over the last couple

◼   ► of years and the number that gets me is

◼   ► is Amazon Amazon p/e ratio and I'm not

◼   ► making this up

◼   ► it's it's like 2,600 this is I stood

◼   ► it's not an exaggeration there you know

◼   ► amazon lives in like this I i will link

◼   ► to a magical acs article while ago that

◼   ► Amazon lives in this world worth

◼   ► investors and do not care about their

◼   ► profits that their you know their

◼   ► stories is not as bears no relation to

◼   ► their profitability whatsoever there the

◼   ► market share poster child right and a

◼   ► little I think it's almost the opposite

◼   ► right there is getting really didn't you

◼   ► in front for you in the reason are they

◼   ► have profits massive profits i just i

◼   ► don't get that it's it seems like it's

◼   ► still the same old dot-com bubble

◼   ► mentality where do they do yeah they're

◼   ► not making any money but eventually

◼   ► eventually they'll make money on amazon

◼   ► has been doing this for 15 years

◼   ► yeah I feel like with amazon amazon too

◼   ► interesting and I don't have to admit I

◼   ► don't get that strategy like to me it's

◼   ► just it's not just because it's apple

◼   ► but I i do something and I think it's

◼   ► part of what just appeals to me about

◼   ► the whole thing is that I understand

◼   ► what Apple's doing is making money every

◼   ► time they sell something and then just

◼   ► putting that money away and not

◼   ► squandering it now i understand that

◼   ► that's not how I behaved in real life

◼   ► I'm a command that squander every dollar

◼   ► but i wish that i had the discipline to

◼   ► build up a huge you know

◼   ► hundred-million-dollar dashboard and

◼   ► then before the show when I was making

◼   ► notes i anchor rope down the hundred i

◼   ► want to talk about this and I wrote down

◼   ► a hundred billion cash and I thought

◼   ► that can't be right know that it it's 10

◼   ► billion right can't be a hundred but it

◼   ► is it's a hundred have a hundred billion

◼   ► dollars in cash that they're just

◼   ► sitting on that when I wrote it down it

◼   ► seemed like a preposterous number right

◼   ► it does seem preposterous seems crazy

◼   ► right but it doesn't seem to have any

◼   ► kind of value in it doesn't it doesn't

◼   ► become valuable in the stock and you

◼   ► know and I you know I guess you know I

◼   ► you could argue maybe reasonably that

◼   ► the run-up that Apple had last year over

◼   ► the summer when the stock price reached

◼   ► its peak maybe that was a little

◼   ► irrational to just as irrational as the

◼   ► dive that it's taken in the last three

◼   ► months but even at its peak their PE

◼   ► ratio was still like never got more than

◼   ► like 12 or 13 it still never reach the

◼   ► average p/e ratio of a company in the

◼   ► SMP 500 that you could make a reasonable

◼   ► case that only looking for a PE value of

◼   ► the average company SMP 500 that Apple

◼   ► stock should you know should be up and

◼   ► around under 850 or something like that

◼   ► i had a screen capture that I had for a

◼   ► little while and finally eventually just

◼   ► deleted because i didn't know where to

◼   ► post it but it was a our local paper at

◼   ► I follow their twitter account and I

◼   ► think they're just they're point wire

◼   ► stories for this stuff because they

◼   ► don't they don't follow this correctly

◼   ► themselves but it was back in october i

◼   ► think when they when apple and both

◼   ► Apple and Amazon

◼   ► supporting their their quarterly numbers

◼   ► and apple had a good quarter missed the

◼   ► analyst estimates of course again it but

◼   ► a amazon reported a loss if i remember

◼   ► correctly

◼   ► ya think the last quarter and also to

◼   ► like a pretty big loss like 247 million

◼   ► dollar yeah and both of that both of the

◼   ► both of the tweets which came within 10

◼   ► 15 minutes of each other something like

◼   ► that said what about each of them apple

◼   ► mrs. mrs. analyst estimates amazon mrs.

◼   ► analyst estimates that is as if the two

◼   ► both had equally bad quarters right when

◼   ► amazon reported a big loss and apple

◼   ► made a whole crapped on a mine

◼   ► yeah and you've written about this

◼   ► pretty pretty well about the this this

◼   ► that the one Apple does miss the

◼   ► analysts projections that it it is so

◼   ► the way that gets played in the stories

◼   ► is so misleading it is and again it's

◼   ► like the everyone to be a reflexive

◼   ► defend apple at all costs and paint no

◼   ► matter what the news is good for Apple

◼   ► but it's this emphasizes miss miss miss

◼   ► miss miss and doesn't mention that it

◼   ► was the Miss involved 8.2 million

◼   ► dollars in profit right and it's sort of

◼   ► i mean i think the idea if you know if

◼   ► you wanted if you want to take their

◼   ► point of view is that it's an industry

◼   ► shorthand for if you have money and

◼   ► apple you might have over you might have

◼   ► just overestimated because you know if

◼   ► you were betting on what the analysts

◼   ► said then they weren't quite right but

◼   ► for the average person it doesn't they

◼   ► don't they don't understand that you

◼   ► just think Apple had a bad quarter right

◼   ► and and it's up you know and it's

◼   ► entirely yet because you don't they

◼   ► don't put that context in their right

◼   ► and it's it's emphasizes only they it

◼   ► emphasizes only the mists and the missus

◼   ► just of numbers an analyst pull out of

◼   ► their hats

◼   ► I mean I not entirely that you know i

◼   ► spaced on something but it's the right

◼   ► they've got spreadsheets that they're

◼   ► looking at but they're just making

◼   ► a guess and and I guess it hopefully in

◼   ► most cases and educated guess but it's

◼   ► still just a gas and you look at things

◼   ► like well year-over-year how are they

◼   ► doing and it's up you know even in the

◼   ► corner with the miss it was op up it's

◼   ► just that I it just wasn't up as high as

◼   ► a lot of these analysts had guests and

◼   ► it's just you know and again i'm not

◼   ► saying that they shouldn't report bad

◼   ► but it just seems like the way that they

◼   ► presented is so heavy-handed and I think

◼   ► part of it even if you don't even have

◼   ► to be at having apple bias a specific

◼   ► anti-apple bias but i think it's this

◼   ► mindset that we've written so many good

◼   ► things about apple and their success

◼   ► that we need to emphasize anything

◼   ► that's bad and the name of objectivity

◼   ► you know I think that you know it gets

◼   ► back to wide everybody jumped on this

◼   ► antennagate story you know spice such

◼   ► fervor that well here's something we can

◼   ► say that Apple did that is imperfect and

◼   ► now we're going to hammer it into the

◼   ► ground

◼   ► it's very strange to me that they come

◼   ► up with such a vastly different numbers

◼   ► it is and I'll tell you know here's the

◼   ► point I wanted to make was that it seems

◼   ► like apples getting hurt because for a

◼   ► long time Apple would offer their own

◼   ► guidance then they still do I think

◼   ► they're legally obligated to that the

◼   ► end after they report the last quarter

◼   ► they offer guidance for the coming

◼   ► quarter and apple notoriously offered

◼   ► sandbag guidance you know in other words

◼   ► you know they was not what Apple

◼   ► honestly expected to report it was it

◼   ► was a number that it was an unbeliever

◼   ► shirts famous country hell where ya at

◼   ► this

◼   ► it was a number of analysts predict

◼   ► their their numbers and maybe a little

◼   ► you know somewhat higher than apples

◼   ► project own projections but all of them

◼   ► were short of reality and I think that

◼   ► what's happened over the last year that

◼   ► you know they've finally caught on that

◼   ► Apple's right projections are so low

◼   ► that they've adjusted their own to be

◼   ► even higher to compensate and that

◼   ► they've really more gotten good right

◼   ► right it's take that even the miss that

◼   ► they reported last quarter wasn't that

◼   ► far

◼   ► off it was actually so that gets really

◼   ► not so much that Apple missed or four

◼   ► came way below it was that these

◼   ► analysts projections are projections you

◼   ► want to be spot-on for once instead of

◼   ► coming in way under and having apple

◼   ► blow them away right which is another

◼   ► yeah it's just another element of the

◼   ► the whole thing that makes this all so

◼   ► incomprehensible and I throw my hands up

◼   ► that trying to figure this stuff out and

◼   ► it doesn't seem like you know you always

◼   ► think well maybe maybe the people who

◼   ► are really into this stuff they know all

◼   ► this and put it really i don't i don't

◼   ► get that sense now and at the analytics

◼   ► you know honest and I bet most of the

◼   ► people to listen to the show you know

◼   ► about a lot of doing some apple stock

◼   ► and hopefully the way that they do it

◼   ► it's just buy it when somebody you know

◼   ► like last week like when somebody print

◼   ► something stupid and then the stock

◼   ► drops down by a dent and then just put

◼   ► it away and don't look at it and and you

◼   ► know assume that it's gone up that and

◼   ► we'll keep going up in the long run over

◼   ► time but that if you i-i've if i owned

◼   ► apple stock and like looked at the

◼   ► numbers and week-to-week and jackass by

◼   ► jackass I i would have indigestion so

◼   ► much of it and the thing is it it's

◼   ► there's that famous phrase that's always

◼   ► in if you get like a statement from your

◼   ► mutual fund company it's like past

◼   ► performance is no indication of future

◼   ► future performance or something like

◼   ► that right and it gets back to that

◼   ► point about whether or not Apple needs a

◼   ► hit and whether or not they sold a lot

◼   ► of iphones this past quarter and that's

◼   ► that's done it's right it's the stuff

◼   ► that they're going to do in the future

◼   ► that's going to get you

◼   ► growth potential out of stock it will

◼   ► provide provided the market doesn't do

◼   ► something you know dumbass like it's

◼   ► been doing the last last week so you can

◼   ► I you kind of have to decide based on

◼   ► the history of the company

◼   ► I mean I guess you basically based this

◼   ► judgment on the history of the company

◼   ► and the management of the company

◼   ► whether or not you think that they're

◼   ► going to be able to do something in the

◼   ► future that's going to be a big hit

◼   ► going to get a lot of growth out of and

◼   ► I don't understand in VA you could say

◼   ► that Steve Jobs is the only one that

◼   ► could innovate apple and so therefore i

◼   ► don't think the company's gonna do you

◼   ► know they're just gonna make iPhones and

◼   ► iPads and then max for the rest of

◼   ► forever and never will never have

◼   ► another breakout product but I don't

◼   ► that seems incredibly short-sighted to

◼   ► me and I don't want to stop but just I

◼   ► like the thing and it's I you know that

◼   ► I I just feel like all of them all of

◼   ► their executives but you know Tim Cook

◼   ► in particular since he's the one you

◼   ► know he's the one who sits on the throne

◼   ► now I have my hat is off to him for just

◼   ► not blowing his stack going nuts because

◼   ► there's no way he can win and he surely

◼   ► knows it right so he's getting

◼   ► excoriated now because Apple hasn't

◼   ► released a major new innovation

◼   ► disruption since he took over as CEO

◼   ► ah and if and when eventually they do I

◼   ► did guaranteed 9 x 9 99 times out of a

◼   ► hundred ninety-nine chance out of a

◼   ► hundred it's going to be dismissed as

◼   ► wow that's terrible

◼   ► this guy's no Steve Jobs and even if

◼   ► jobs had died two years earlier and the

◼   ► ipad exactly as it is exactly as it

◼   ► wasn't 2010 was introduced under tim

◼   ► cook that whole it's just a big iphone

◼   ► man you know that's it it's just it's 99

◼   ► inside phone

◼   ► it would have been ratcheted up to 11 as

◼   ► it's nothing but a big iphone total turd

◼   ► this guy is no Steve Jobs all he did is

◼   ► take the iphone and make it 10 inches